Credible accounts of causation in complex rural contexts

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Finessing the qual-quant distinction in
research and evaluation
Action research into methodologies for assessing complex rural
transformations in Malawi and Ethiopia.
James Copestake and Fiona Remnant
27 January 2015
ART project webpage: go.bath.ac.uk/art
1
Origins of the presentation
• Paper submitted based on Working Paper:
Assessing Rural Transformations: Piloting a Qualitative
Impact Protocol in Malawi and Ethiopia
• Response:
“On first (very quick) reading, this paper seems somewhat
embedded in a quantitative paradigm (albeit with some
narrative data).”
• Invitation to resubmit, reflecting more on qual/quant
distinction, e.g.
What is a quantitative or qualitative paradigm?
2
Summary
• Creative mixing of qualitative and quantitative research is aided by
deconstructing and reconstructing the distinction between them.
• One approach is to review framing and data codification within any
research process (from initial scoping to use).
• This departs from the norm of assuming mixed method research
partitions (or nests) self-contained qual and quant. methods.
• To explore this we use the case study of our experience in designing
and testing a qualitative research protocol for impact evaluation of
NGO livelihood improvement and climate adaptation projects in
rural Ethiopia and Malawi.
3
Key concepts (1): framing
“If calculations are to be performed and completed, the agents
and goods involved in these calculations must be disentangled
and framed. In short a clear and precise boundary must be
drawn between the relations which the agents will take into
account and which will serve in their calculations and those
which will be thrown out…”
M Callon, editor. (1998) The Laws of the Markets, Oxford:
Blackwell. Page 16.
4
Key concepts (2): codification
“… the distinction between quantitative and qualitative enquiry
hinges less on the source of information than on the point at
which information is codified, or otherwise simplified. Early
codification permits rigorous statistical analysis, but at the same
time entails introducing restrictive assumptions which limit the
range of possible findings.”
J Moris and J Copestake (1993) Qualitative enquiry for rural
development: a review. London: ITDG. Page 1.
5
Key concept (3): partitioning
• Maintain a categorical distinction between quant and qual
approaches or paradigms. Identify ways in which they can be
mixed:
– In parallel (triangulation) or
– In sequence (e.g. qual pilot -> quant survey -> qual case study etc).
• NOT the main focus here – as this is the dominant discourse for
mixed methods, and the focus here is on one integrated
method.
6
Analytical framework
Simplified reality (with respect to time, space,
ontology) to facilitate quantification
Framing
(selection)
Codification
Research activities
through time
(initial scoping, data
collection, analysis,
dissemination)
Reframing
and
decodification
(synthesis)
Infinitely complex reality
7
Case study: the ART project
8
(a) Initial scoping
• How to assist NGOs gather timely and credible data for
internal and external use on the impact of their projects?
• Three strands to the research:
1.
Monitoring
2.
Qualitative assessment
3.
Meta analysis of the usefulness of the methodology.
• Focus here only on Strand 2, piloting the qualitative
assessment tool (the QUIP)
9
Projects (X)
Impact
Indicators (Y)
Confounding
Factors (Z)
Project 1. Groundnut value
Food production
Weather
chain (Central Malawi)
Cash income
Climate change
Food consumption
Crop pests and diseases
resilience
Cash spending
Livestock mortality
(Northern Malawi)
Quality of
relationships
Activities of other
organisations
Net asset
accumulation
Market conditions
Project 2. Diversification and
Project 3. Malt barley value
chain (Southern Ethiopia)
Project 4. Diversification and Overall wellbeing
resilience
Other?
Demographic changes
Health shocks
… more?
(Northern Ethiopia)
10
(b) Data collection
• Two independent local field researchers, without any
knowledge of the project (blinding). Four-six days of semistructured interviewing, two days of focus group
discussions.
• Sample selection based on lists from separate quantitative
monitoring of key household level indicators (IHM).
• Data collection instruments structured around any changes
since project inception, split by life/livelihood domain:
open questions followed by closed questions for each
domain.
11
(c) Analysis
• Responses to open and closed questions entered into
pre-formatted Excel sheets.
• The analyst uses the project theory of change to classify
causal statements in the raw narrative data by attribution
type: positive/negative explicit, implicit, incidental and
unattributed.
• Change data (causal statements) are sorted into
categories and summarised using simple frequency
counts.
12
(d) Dissemination
• Short report summarising frequency with which
households volunteered explicit, implicit, incidental
causal explanations with respect to each impact domain.
• Lists of all causal explanations cited more than once.
• Appendix providing narrative data (sorted causal
statements)
13
Causal Coding Key
Change attributed to:
Code
Explanation
Explicit project (positive)
1
Positive change attributed to project and project-linked activities
Explicit project (negative)
2
Negative change attributed to project and project-linked activities
Implicit (positive)
3
Stories confirming a mechanism by which the project aims to be
achieving impact, but with no explicit reference to the project
Implicit (negative)
4
Stories questioning a mechanism by which the project aims to be
achieving impact, but with no explicit reference to the project
5
Positive change attributed to any other forces that are not related
to activities included in the commissioning agent’s theory of
change
Other attributed (negative)
6
Negative change attributed to any other forces that are not related
to activities included in the commissioning agent’s theory of
change
Unattributed (positive)
7
Positive change not attributed to any specific cause
Unattributed (negative)
8
Negative change not attributed to any specific cause
Other ambiguous, ambivalent or
neutral statements
9
Changes with no clear positive or negative implications
Other attributed (positive)
14
Responses to closed questions
Code
Main
respondent
Age of
respondent
1. Food
Production
2. Cash
income
3. Purchasing
power
4. Food
consumption 5. Assets
LL1
Female
61
=
+
-
-
+
LL2
Female
31
+
+
+
+
+
LL3
Male
49
+
+
+
+
+
LL4
Female
22
+
+
+
+
+
LL5
Female
31
-
-
-
=
-
LL6
Female
22
+
+
+
+
-
LL7
Male
26
+
+
+
+
+
LL8
Male
43
+
+
+
+
+
15
Frequency of narrative causal statements
Positive changes reported by households and focus groups
1
Project explicit
Food production
LL2, LL5, LL6, LL7, LL8
FL3, FL4
Cash income
LL2, LL5, LL6, LL7
FL1, FL2, FL3, FL4
Purchasing power
LL2, LL6, LL7, LL8
FL1, FL2, FL3, FL4
Food consumption
LL2, LL7, LL8
FL4
Relationships
LL2, LL5, LL7, LL8
FL4
Asset accumulation
LL7, LL8
FL1, FL4
Notes: LL1 to LL8 refer to individual household codes
3
Project implicit
LL3, LL6
FL4
5
Other
LL4
LL3, LL4, LL7, LL8
LL4, LL7
LL3
LL4
LL3
LL4
LL3
LL1 LL,4
FL3
LL2, LL4
7
None
FL1 to FL4 refer to focus groups: FL1 Younger women; FL2 Older women; FL3 Older men; FL4 Younger men.
16
Frequency of narrative causal statements
Negative changes reported by households and focus groups
Attribution
Food production
2
Project explicit
4
Project implicit
FL1, FL2, FL3
6
Other
LL5
FL1, FL3
Cash income
LL6
FL3, FL4
LL1, LL5
Purchasing power
FL2
LL1, LL5
FL1, FL3
Food consumption
FL1, FL2
LL1
Relationships
Asset accumulation
8
None
FL1, FL2
LL5
FL2
17
Drilling into narrative causal statements
Section C: Food Production & Cash Income
3. Activities that implicitly corroborate the project’s theory of
change (positive)
LL3
LL3
LL4
LL6
LL7
4. Activities that implicitly
corroborate the project’s theory of
change (negative)
The respondent said that they rely on farming both irrigation as
well as rainfed. In the past, they used to rely on food for work but
now they are growing their own food because they were inspired
by their friends who were farming and doing better than them.
According to the Respondent, they used to rely on piece work as a
main source of income but now they grow cassava, Groundnuts
and sell these. This has been so because their friends encouraged
them to do farming so that their welfare improves also.
She also reported that she occasionally sells her maize to
supplement her income.
On new activities taken to help produce more food she said: "…I
She however bemoaned the low
rent in several fields each season which has also helped to increase prices that itinerant vendors offer
food production…"
for their crops saying this reduces
their profit margin.
They however reported that they are employing more piece work
workers to work on their farms because they are mostly engaged in
other activities like attending to customers in their tea room
business. They said that employing several temporary workers is
18
therefore something that they are doing differently from others
Drivers of change
Drivers of positive change
Food
Production
LL2, LL5, LL6, LL7
SHA support with
groundnut crop
(Support to grow
Groundnut from
SHA in the form of
free seeds, advice
and/or credit)
SHA 'pass on'
LL7, LL8
livestock
programme (pigs
and goats
provided by FIDP
and SHA; further
benefits accruing
from livestock
reproducing)
SHA/FIDP advice LL8, LL7
on irrigation
FL3
farming (Advice
and some
equipment
provided by FIDP
and SHA - treadle
pumps, watering
Cash Income
Purchasing power
LL1, LL2, LL5, LL6,
LL7,
FL1, FL2, FL4
LL2, LL6, LL7
FL1, FL2, FL4
LL8, LL5, LL6
FL2, FL4
FL3
Food
Consumption
LL2, LL8
FL4
Relationships
Assets
FL3, FL4
FL1
FL1, FL4
19
Most widely cited drivers of change
Domain
Positive
Project 1: groundnut seed, Malawi (n=8,4)
Food production
NGO support for groundnut crop (4,0)*
NGO advice on making manure (2,2)*
NGO advice on small-scale irrigation (2,1)*
Cash
NGO support for groundnut crop (5,3)*
Income
NGO pass-on livestock programme (3,2)*
NGO support for farming as a business
(3,0)*
Cash spending
NGO support for groundnut crop (5,3)*
NGO support for farming as a business
(3,0)*
Village savings and loan groups (3,0)
Food consumption
NGO support for groundnut crop (2,1)*
Quality of relationships NGO support for farming as a business
(1,1)*
Net asset accumulation NGO support for groundnut crop (2,0)*
Asterisks indicate those drivers that explicitly or implicitly support or negate project theory
Negative
Low sale price for crops
(1,3)*
Low sale price for crops
(2,3)*
Increased prices,
including food (0,3)
Increased prices,
including food (0,2)
Economic hardship (0,2)
20
Meta analysis: (re)framing and
(de)codification steps
within the research process
21
(a) Scoping
Key step in terms of broad framing of the research
• Who? – Feedback from intended beneficiaries up the
‘aid chain’.
• What? – Reality check on agencies’ theory of change
(confirmatory and exploratory evaluation).
• Why? – Learning and accountability.
• How? – Sample in-depth interviews and focus
groups alongside project monitoring.
• When? – single visit with recall over specified period.
22
(b) Data collection
• Interviews framed by semi-structured questionnaire
arranged in line with predetermined domains of
impact.
• Open (not codified) in terms of potential sources of
change: field worker and respondent blind to project
theory to reduce confirmation bias. But dependent on
field worker’s skill in summarising open conversation.
• Closed questions using Lickert scales to finish each
section - inviting respondent to participate in
codification.
23
(c) Analysis
• Post-hoc codification according to prior categories of
impact: positive/negative; explicit, implicit,
incidental, unattributable.
• Triangulation of open and closed question responses.
• Synthesis through identification of patterns in drivers
of change, and relating these to wider context.
24
(d) Dissemination and use
• Standard format of short reports with summary tables
(codification) that can be visually and rapidly be
absorbed (synthesis) by staff.
• These also signpost how they can decodify by drilling
deeper into the sorted narrative data in annexes.
• Triangulation with data obtained through monitoring
and other methods (not covered here)
25
Conclusion
• Need for an alternative language in order to transcend
the qual/quan dichotomy.
• Synthesis (decodification and reframing) can take place
within a research method.
• This is a form of internal triangulation informed by
comparing different ways of framing and coding data
from the same source.
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