Australasian Transport Research Forum 2015 Proceedings
30 September - 2 October 2015, Sydney, Australia
Publication website: http://www.atrf.info/papers/index.aspx
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus
Network Reform in Melbourne
Chris Loader1, Naomi Langdon2, Effie Robotis3
1, 2, 3 Public
Transport Victoria, 750 Collins St, Docklands, Victoria
Email for correspondence: chris.loader@ptv.vic.gov.au
Abstract
In July 2014, Public Transport Victoria (PTV) introduced a new bus network in the Brimbank
area of Melbourne’s western suburbs. The network featured more direct and frequent
services, better connections with trains, buses finishing later at night, Sunday services on all
routes and better connections to key local destinations. This paper analyses the early
patronage performance of the new network, and examines the contribution made by its
service design features.
The bus network was developed through an extensive analysis of demographic, patronage
data, travel surveys, community consultation and advice from bus operators and local
government. Available funding for bus service improvements was limited, so the design
emphasised providing a cost-effective network that addressed community needs.
This paper evaluates how aspects of the network design have performed relative to their
intent, including increased span of hours, tailoring frequency to time of day patronage, and
providing new, more direct routes. The new network saw 10% patronage growth within the
first six months, relative to a 16% increment in timetabled service hours, which is significantly
stronger than international short-run elasticity evidence for increased service levels. Our
analysis suggests this growth can only be explained by a combination of both increased
service levels and improved network design.
1 Introduction
Improving public transport performance through improved bus network design has been a
recent focus for Australian public transport agencies (Parker 2011, Mulley et al 2013). Many
authors have advocated planning principles for growing network patronage (Currie 2008,
Dodson 2011, Nielson 2005, Walker 2012), however evidence of the effectiveness of bus
service reforms in Australia is relatively limited (Mulley 2013, Parker 2011, Loader 2009).
This paper examines the effectiveness of network design reforms implemented in the
Brimbank area of Melbourne in July 2014 by Public Transport Victoria, the state government
agency responsible for public transport network planning.
This paper provides a brief background on the Brimbank area and its transport network,
including a history of recent network planning activity in the area. It then outlines how PTV
analysed existing conditions to support the planning of a new network, and provides a short
summary of the network changes.
We then propose a method to assess the impact of network improvements beyond simple
changes in service levels and use this to analyse the overall performance of the network
change. This is followed by case studies that explore the effectiveness of network changes
on selected routes in more detail.
1.1 About Brimbank and its public transport
The City of Brimbank is a municipality covering around 12,000 hectares in the north-western
suburbs of Melbourne, stretching from Sunshine in the south-east (12 km from the
Melbourne Central Business District) to Sydenham in the north (21 km from the Melbourne
Central Business District) and Deer Park in the south-west (refer Figure 1).
1
Figure 1: Location of the City of Brimbank within the Greater Melbourne urban area
In 2014, Brimbank was estimated to have a population of around 198,000 residents (ABS,
2014), with population growth of 1.2% in the year to June 2014, reflecting a mostly built-out
urban area.
The southern two-thirds of Brimbank are among Melbourne’s most socio-economically
disadvantaged areas (ABS, 2011), with relatively low rates of motor vehicle ownership
(Loader 2012) and workforce or education participation (as shown in Figure 2).
To the west of Brimbank is the City of Melton, which includes one of Melbourne’s urban
growth frontiers. The eastern parts of Melton have higher average incomes, car ownership,
and workforce participation than most of Brimbank.
Public transport in Brimbank comprises the electrified suburban Sunbury rail line, the
regional Ballarat rail line, and around 25 local bus routes. Prior to July 2014, most bus routes
operated every 40 minutes on weekdays, and hourly on weekends. According the Victoria
Integrated Survey of Transport and Activity, an estimated 12% of motorised journeys in
Brimbank were made by public transport in 2009-10, of which 25% were by bus (Department
of Transport, 2015).
PTV’s review identified many issues with the previous bus network, including a lack of
evening and Sunday services, poor timetable coordination with trains, highly indirect routes,
unproductively overlapping route segments, large one-way route sections, routes with weak
terminus locations, and overcrowding on some route sections whilst others were poorly
patronised. Many areas had no direct or frequent bus routes, and north-south travel was
indirect and inefficient in the west of the municipality.
The Brimbank area bus review included some bus routes that operate in the eastern part of
the City of Melton, as they crossed-over into the Brimbank area. However it excluded bus
routes on Ballarat Road, which will be part of future reviews encompassing neighbouring
regions.
2 Network Development
2.1 Previous bus planning in Brimbank
Until July 2014, Brimbank’s bus network had seen few changes. Some existing bus routes
were extended to Watergardens in the north when the Sunbury rail line was electrified
between St Albans and Watergardens in 2002.
2
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus Network Reform in Melbourne
A formal Bus Service Review was completed for Brimbank in 2010 by Parsons Brinkerhoff,
on behalf of the then Department of Transport (Parsons Brinkerhoff, 2010). This review was
tasked with making recommendations to restructure and improve the bus network, but no
budget envelope was considered and assumptions were made about the roll-out of an orbital
SmartBus route through the area1, which has not eventuated.
Almost none of the recommendations of this review were subsequently implemented. We
note that the objectives of the review did not include maximising network investment
efficiency, and thus the recommended network included many overlapping routes designed
to resolve most of the issues raised by a wide range of stakeholders, without necessarily
testing the trade-offs and efficiency of such a design. This resulted in a relatively expensive
network design, which may have contributed to a lack of new funding being provided.
In 2013, a small amount of funding was made available to address late running and
overcrowding issues on one particular bus route. Rather than simply allocate additional
vehicles to that route (sections of which were highly indirect), PTV decided to undertake a
broader review to see if network efficiencies could spread the benefits of this new investment
to a wider area.
2.2 Network Planning to optimise efficiency
Unlike the 2010 bus service review, PTV was faced with a defined quantum of new recurrent
funding. Service planners had to make difficult decisions to trade-off competing network
objectives, and could not assume the delivery of the orbital SmartBus route.
These changed objectives required a very different approach to network design. PTV was
challenged with optimising the overall network design, including identifying areas where
resources were inefficiently deployed and could be reinvested for more efficient and better
patronage outcomes. A number of instances where this approach was applied are discussed
later in the paper, together with the measured impact on patronage.
The following major network planning principles were adopted by PTV:

Emphasis was placed on establishing a hierarchy of more frequent and direct bus
routes that operate along major roads with a longer span of hours, complemented by
less frequent and less direct neighbourhood routes that serve areas in between. This
approach responded to local research (Bourgeat 2014) showing that most market
segments of bus customers (including commuters, tertiary students and youth)
preferred faster, more direct and frequent bus routes and were willing to walk a little
further to access such services, while older travellers and those with impaired mobility
preferred a shorter walk to a bus stop and were willing to trade-off frequency,
directness and span of hours. The principle of designing network hierarchies is also
discussed in the literature (Neilson 2005, Dodson 2011, Walker 2012)

A heavy emphasis was placed on route directness (more so than the 2010 bus
service review) to reduce bus travel times, and enable higher service frequency to
drive patronage growth (again, as a best practice identified by Dodson (2011, p11) ,
Neilson (2005) and Walker (2012)). This resulted in buses being removed from a
number of local streets as route alignments were straightened. A stronger emphasis
was placed on route directness for more frequent routes in the network hierarchy,
while some degree of indirectness was tolerated on neighbourhood routes.

Rather than simply upgrading service levels on selected existing routes with strong
patronage growth potential, PTV also considered reductions in service frequency on
1
Bus route 902, with 15 minute service headways on weekdays, 30 minute headways on weekends,
and a relatively long span of hours, was proposed to be extended from Airport West to Watergardens
via Keilor, then to Deer Park via Kings and Station Roads, and then south to Werribee.
3
route sections that were poorly patronised, with resources reinvested to areas of
higher patronage potential.

Corridors where bus routes overlapped were examined for service efficiency. In some
instances routes operating every 20 minutes overlapped with routes operating every
30 minutes, creating a combined service with uneven headways - an inefficient use of
resources. PTV looked to remove unproductive duplication, and ensure any bus
routes that overlapped in the new network design had the same frequency with offset
departures to ensure a combined even service frequency.

School special services were reviewed with low patronage routes deleted. Typically
more buses are required to operate school special services in the PM school peak (ie
3-4pm) than the AM peak, and traditionally these vehicles have not also been used
for public route services which typically operated at flat frequencies throughout the
day and/or peak periods. Efforts were therefore made to utilise “school” buses
outside the PM school peak – including the full AM peak and the PM “commuter”
peak (generally 4-7pm) - to maximise network attractiveness to other peak period
commuters.

Specifications for bus timetable development placed a strong emphasis on
coordination with train services at both primary and secondary nodes. All off-peak
bus service frequencies were harmonised with rail. Off-peak bus headways were
mostly set to 20, 40 or 60 minutes to match the 20 minute train frequency on the
Sunbury line.
2.3 An evidence base for network planning
PTV aimed to have a very comprehensive evidence base to support network planning.
Numerous available data sources on local demographics, travel patterns and public transport
patronage were examined. A Brimbank travel survey was also commissioned, involving
intercepting people on-street in activity centres and asking about their travel and activity
patterns.
Table 1 outlines the major datasets reviewed, and summarises how the analysis influenced
the network design. Due to space limitations, we have not attempted to justify the basis of
each design criterion in this paper.
Demographics
Category
Table 1: Major datasets reviewed and how their analysis impacted on the service design.
Impact on service design
Population density – higher frequency routes were considered in areas of higher population density.
This included consideration of future population density due to planned urban developments.
Motor vehicle ownership - higher frequency routes were particularly considered in areas with lower
rates of motor vehicle ownership. The Brimbank Travel survey found a very strong relationship
between low levels of car ownership and high public transport use. While increasing service
frequencies may theoretically reduce future levels of car ownership, it was felt that the modest
incremental budget available would be unlikely to achieve mode shift in higher socio-economic areas
with high car ownership.
Workforce/education participation - higher peak period frequency was considered in areas with
concentrations of higher workforce and education participation (likely to generate peak period
commuters), whereas better all day frequency was considered in areas with low workforce/education
participation due to likely general day-long travel demand. A map showing 2011 employment and
education participation is shown in Figure 2.
Density of older people – consideration was given to avoid long walking distances to bus services in
areas with higher concentrations of older people.
4
Other
modes
Existing public transport
usage and performance
Travel patterns
Destination characteristics
Category
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus Network Reform in Melbourne
Impact on service design
Density of younger people – consideration was given to higher frequency services in areas with
higher concentrations of younger people who are much more likely to be public transport users (ABS
2013)
Parking difficulties – PTV placed a greater emphasis on providing higher quality public transport to
destinations where there was either paid car parking and/or survey respondents reported difficulties
with car parking, on the basis that public transport could be more competitive at these destinations.
Substitutability of destinations – PTV was aware that some town centres contained culturally
specific retailing and services. The Brimbank Travel Survey asked respondents whether they could
substitute their interception location with other centres for the same activity. The centre of St Albans
was identified as being the least “substitutable” and thus emphasis was placed on retaining public
transport access from the surrounding catchment.
Current public transport mode share – the Brimbank Travel Survey found a remarkably high public
transport access mode share at town centres, including 38% at St Albans and 31% at Sunshine. The
next highest rating centre was Watergardens at 8%, while the mode share was around 2-3% at
smaller shopping centres. PTV therefore focussed on providing good access to the larger town
centres as a priority over smaller centres.
Employment centres – PTV placed emphasis on providing higher peak frequency on services to
areas with higher employment density, and/or existing higher public transport mode shares for
journeys to work.
Journey to work in central Melbourne – Census data shows that central Melbourne has a very
high public transport mode share (DEDTJR 2015). PTV is also aware that train station car parks are
known to fill early on weekdays. We therefore prioritised higher peak frequency services in areas with
higher concentrations of central city workers, particularly areas not adjacent to train stations.
Local journey to work flows – PTV analysed local journey to work flows using census data, and
looked to identify popular commuter flows not well supported by the public transport network.
Catchments of town centres - as part of the Brimbank travel survey, we asked respondents how
often they visited various destinations across Brimbank. Although the sample sizes were not large,
we were able to construct relatively clear maps showing the catchment extents for major destinations.
We found that most centres had a strong local catchment, and larger centres had larger catchments.
Patronage performance of routes – PTV analysed the patronage performance of bus routes, and
which routes had higher school and/or commuter peak patronage.
Boardings at bus stops - ticketing data was analysed to calculate average daily boardings at all bus
stops, to provide some indication of route sections with higher patronage generation.
Load profile per route – previous on-board surveys of boardings and alightings were used to help
understand the load profile of bus services at different times of day.
Load surveys – to supplement ticketing data, special point load surveys were conducted at key
locations on selected routes to help understand bus loads in peak periods on well used routes.
Population coverage – mapping software was used to identify areas of significant population density
that were more than 400 metre from a bus route or train station.
Existing bus user profiling – results of on-board passenger interviews were examined to
understand existing users of bus routes.
Rail service upgrades
The Regional Rail Link project, together with rolling stock procurement commitments, meant that
service levels on the Ballarat – Melton – Melbourne train line were to be upgraded in 2015. This
presented the opportunity for a stronger bus-train interchange at Deer Park Station, which then
became more of a focal point for the new bus network.
5
Figure 2: Percentage of persons aged 15 or over employed or studying (source: 2011 census).
The analysis of local conditions lead PTV to create a set of region-specific objectives for the
review:
 Improve access to the important larger destinations of Sunshine and Watergardens.
 Extend network coverage to unserviced areas (in particular Sunshine North, and
eastern St Albans).
 Maintain access to St Albans as a popular non-substitutable destination from its
catchment of central Brimbank.
 Provide better links to Melton-Ballarat rail line, in particular Deer Park Station.
3 Network Changes
As part of the new network, ten bus routes had route and timetable changes, three bus
routes were discontinued, and three new bus routes were added. Also:

Seven bus routes had a change in span of operating hours, including three routes
where Sunday services were introduced.

Six existing routes had frequency upgrades, and two routes had time periods where
frequencies were reduced.

Network coverage of Brimbank’s population increased from 88.6% to 90.6%
(measured as within 400 metres of bus routes and/or 800 metres of a train station).

Total network route kilometres increased only 2.3% (from 177 to 181), but average
weekly timetabled service hours were increased 15.6% (from 2,740 to 3,169). Hence
almost all the extra recurrent funding went into increasing service hours (span,
frequency or additional running time) rather than network route kilometres.
6
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus Network Reform in Melbourne

The total fleet requirement to operate the network increased by one bus, reflecting the
strong focus on investment efficiency.
The network changes spanned three bus operators, who together agreed to work together
with PTV to overcome exclusivity issues associated with existing franchise contracts.
The network increased the proportion of residents within 800 metres of a service that
operates at least every 20 minutes in peak periods from 66% to 90%, and the average
directness ratio2 of more frequent routes was reduced from 1.63 to 1.21.
The network changes were advertised to the community through posters on board buses,
information flyers distributed on system and to letterboxes, and advertising in local media.
Bus routes not documented in this paper were deliberately left unchanged as they were
subject to future reviews. Maps showing the previous network and issues, and the new
network are shown in Figure 3.
Figure 3: pre and post July 2014 bus network in Brimbank, with existing network issues
annotated. Annotations in green were addressed in the new network design.
Pre July 2014
Post July 2014
Indirect
No
connections
Brimbank to
Airport
Low peak frequency
on direct commuter
route
No Sunday
service
Weak
terminus
Indirect
No connection
to Keilor Plains
or Keilor SC
No Sunday
service
No
Watergardens
connection
Indirect
No Sunday
service
Indirect
Indirect
Coverage
gap
Coverage gap
Frequent, highly
indirect
Uncoordinated
overlapping services
Uncoordinated
overlapping services
Peak crowding
No evening
service
One-way sections
No links to
west or north
Indirect
Weak terminus
Coverage
gap
irregular
deviation
2
Measured as the ratio of actual bus path distance to the shortest possible bus path distance between
route endpoints.
7
4 Evaluation
4.1 Methodology
In order to understand the impacts of the implementation of the new Brimbank network, an
analysis of patronage data was undertaken using data from the myki smartcard ticketing
system from October 2013 to February 2015. The ticketing system measures the stop
location, route and time of each “touch on” on a public transport bus service, providing a rich
data source for the analysis of the impact of the upgrade. The touch on figures were adjusted
to an estimate of vehicle boardings using a ‘touch on rate’ calculated by a continuous survey
(PTV 2014).
October to February was used as a common calendar period for the ‘before’ and ‘after’
measurement of patronage – ie ‘before’ patronage was measured as average daily or weekly
boardings between October 2013 and February 2014, and after patronage was measured for
October 2014 to February 2015. The months of July, August and September were avoided
as these immediately followed the implementation of the restructure in 2014, allowing for
some time for behaviour to begin to normalise. The months of March to June were
unavailable at the time of analysis.
Analysis of patronage growth considered average school weekdays, Saturdays, Sundays
and a “standard week” (five school weekdays plus a Saturday and Sunday). By excluding
public holidays and school holiday weekdays, and using average daily patronage we are
removing the impact of holiday calendar variations on the calculations. By comparing the
exact same months of the year in the before and after case we are controlling for seasonal
impacts.
In assessing the impact of a network restructure, we identified three major drivers of
patronage outcomes:

Change in quantum of service offering – through increased or reduced route
lengths, service frequencies, or span of operating hours. This can be easily measured
in terms of total timetabled service hours – i.e. the sum of all scheduled trip durations
on a timetable.

Exogenous factors to the bus service review – such as changes to fares and
general economic conditions. In an attempt to understand these factors, a control
group was created of Melbourne bus routes that were unchanged in July 2014 and
also operated in fare zone two (which covers all of Brimbank), and did not operate in
major urban growth areas. Bus patronage in this control group increased by 2% on
weekdays and 3% on weekends between the defined before and after periods.

Improvements in network design relating to directness/travel speed, tailoring of
service frequency across the day and week, and changed connectivity to
destinations. It is difficult to directly quantify such improvements such that an
elasticity could be calculated. Directness ratios for each bus route before and after
the restructure can be calculated, but generally directness is measured in terms of
reduced travel time. Given the complexities of different travellers having different
origins and destinations, it is very difficult to calculate the “average” reduction in travel
time overall.
In order to gain some understanding as to the effectiveness of the improvements in network
design, we adjusted route level patronage by -2% on weekdays and -3% on weekends to
account for exogenous factors, and then calculated an implied service elasticity (the ratio of
change in patronage to change in service quantum) based on timetabled service hours. We
then compared this implied service elasticity with what might be expected for a simple
adjustment of service levels. In a recent synthesis of evidence, Currie et al (2008) suggest an
average short run elasticity of 0.35 after a period of a year, with higher results typical during
8
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus Network Reform in Melbourne
off peak periods, and in larger cities. In our analysis, we compare patronage approximately
three to six months after implementation so would generally expect a weaker service
elasticity – perhaps 0.3 or less. Stone (2013) notes that in some cases it takes up to two
years for new passengers to ‘find’ new routes. As there is variation in the elasticity evidence
(for example, Wallis (2003) gives a typical range of 0.2-0.6), we do not attempt to precisely
attribute the impact of network improvements above service level improvements.
Where the implied service elasticity of a network change is significantly greater than 0.3 after
six months, we argue this is likely to indicate that factors other than the simple change in
service level are at play – and we consider these most likely attributable to network design
improvements.
4.2 Overall performance
Figure 4 summarises the changes in patronage (adjusted for exogenous factors) and
timetabled service hours for normal (school) weekdays, Saturdays, Sundays and a standard
week (5 school weekdays plus on Saturday and one Sunday), together with implied service
elasticities. AM peak is defined as all services before 9am and PM peak is defined as
services between 3pm and 7pm.
Figure 4: Increase in bus patronage (adjusted for exogenous factors), service hours and
Brimbank
bus patronage
timetabled
hours
resulting elasticity (e)Growth
for allinbus
routesarea
combined
in the and
network
restructure.
October 2013 - February 2014 v October 2014 - February 2015
60%
Patronage
Timetabled bus hours
Year on Year Increase
50%
e=1.0
e=0.6
43%
39% 40%
40%
e=0.3
e=0.9
30%
26%
23%
20%
e=0.3
16%
14%
13%
e=0.7
8%
10%
4%
e=0.6
16%
e=0.6
18%
10%
8%
1% 1%
0%
AM Peak
Interpeak
PM Peak
Weekday
Evening
Total
Saturday
Sunday
Standard
Week
In all cases except for the AM peak and Saturdays, the elasticities calculated are well beyond
0.3, suggesting network improvements have contributed strongly to patronage growth
outcomes. Overall, around half of the patronage growth can arguably be attributed to the
upgraded network design (rather than simply the increase in services).
The Saturday performance result probably reflects the introduction of 20 minute headways
on Route 420 in a brand new service in a new corridor which thus would take longer to grow.
Around 90% of the increment in Saturday service was realised along this route. It is more
difficult to explain the overall relatively weak result in the AM peak, given the strong result in
the PM peak.
Figure 5 summarises the changes in service hours, route kilometres and patronage for bus
routes that exist in the previous and new bus networks. Table 2 shows the relevant data
points, together with calculations of implied services elasticities.
9
418
419
421
Route
44%
423
424
2%
8%
9%
-14%
-19%
-3%
-2%
408
-11%
-26%
400
-19%
-40%
-26%
-12%
-20%
4%
4%
0%
0%
0%
-1%
0%
20%
7%
20%
40%
24%
60%
19%
16%
75%
Change in Route Length
80%
% Change
89%
Change in Timetabled Bus Hours
100%
23%
Change in Patronage
120%
58%
140%
93%
119%
Figure 5: Change in service hours, route length and patronage for retained bus routes
425
460
476
400
408
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
427
428
451
454
460
476
Total
 6,471
 19,709
 5,272
 6,122
 

  2,993


2,474




  2,916
  3,122
  5,823

 
  


6,479




6,490




 2,211
 9,431
79,512
7,796
19,522
5,473
6,028
9,686
5,665
20%
-1%
4%
-2%
307
463
175
200
89%
4,610
3,847
6,936
2,382
2,728
58%
23%
19%
121
73
61
86
157
44%
2%
10%
286
183
101
528
2,740
3,173
9,650
87,497
272
463
182
213
448
265
117
77
183
148
146
87
568
3,169
-12%
0%
4%
7%
30
16
15
15
119%
93%
-11%
16%
11
7
7
8
11
-14%
8%
16%
12
6
11
29
177
30
16
11
12
16
19
Note
Implied service
hour elasticity
Change
After
Route Kms
Before
Change
After
Timetabled Service Hours
Before
Change
After
Average Weekly Patronage
Before
Sunday
Service
After
Before
After
Route
Before
Route In
Place
Table 2: Key service statistics for bus routes in the Brimbank bus service review
-1.8
A
-26%
-19%
1.0
-0.2
B
75%
0.8
8
6
11
7
6
24%
-26%
-3%
0.6
-2.2
1.2
9
31
181
-19%
9%
2%
-3.2
0.3
0.6
Many of these implied service elasticities were calculated as negative – ie service hours
were reduced but patronage increase (routes noted A), or service hours increased but
patronage decreased (noted B). In the former case, it indicates the reduction in service hours
was more than offset by other factors such as improved network design.
Route 419 was the only example of a route with increased service hours and reduced
patronage. This route was altered to operate a shorter path to Watergardens Station, which
overlapped in parts with Route 476. These routes ran the same service frequencies but were
not timetabled to create combined even headways due to different coordination objectives,
which may have created reduced efficiency for both routes.
10
A
A
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus Network Reform in Melbourne
To further examine the effectiveness of the network planning principles applied, this paper
examines three case studies in more detail, where it is possible to mostly isolate and assess
local changes to routes and service levels.
4.3 Case study: Adjusting frequency and span to match demand on route 400
This residential pocket south of the Melton rail line near Deer Park Station (refer Figure 3)
was found to have relatively higher concentrations of central city workers, high
workforce/education participation, and (relatively) lower levels of motor vehicle ownership.
Together this suggested the potential for high peak period patronage.
The areas is served by Route 400, which commenced operations in 2006 with the actual
intent of providing regular public transport services to three prisons located in a large
industrial area between Deer Park and Laverton.
PTV analysis found several issues with this service:





Heavy loading in peak periods in the residential area between Derrimut and Sunshine
Relatively low usage in off-peak periods
Very low patronage levels on the industrial area section of the route between
Derrimut and Laverton, including to the three prisons
A limited span of hours, with first weekday services arriving 7:30am and last services
departing 7pm at each end (an uncommonly short span of hours for residential
services in Melbourne). Many employers in the industrial area have told PTV they
commenced operations early in the morning, often before the first bus service.
The previous 30 minute service frequency did not enable coordination with off-peak
train services that operate every 20 minutes.
In response to this analysis, service levels were adjusted as follows:



To better meet transport demand from the residential area between Derrimut and
Sunshine, the span of hours was increased to provide earlier morning services,
evening services until around 9pm, and a 20 minute headway was introduced in
school and commuter peak periods.
The day time inter-peak service headway was adjusted to 40 minutes along the entire
route, to harmonise with 20 minute train headways. Across the week, almost all
services provided 5-10 minute connections to peak direction trains in the morning,
and from peak direction trains in the afternoon and evening.
Between Derrimut and Laverton headways were adjusted to 40 minutes throughout
most of the week (with occasional 20 minute headways in peak periods), and earlier
weekday services were provided on weekdays.
Figure 6 shows the estimated weekday hourly patronage before and after the service
adjustment. The results show an increase in patronage in the AM peak (particularly before
7am), and most significantly in the PM commuter peak (4pm to 7pm), suggesting the
increase peak frequency and span of hours has been successful at attracting patronage
growth from commuters.
The reduced inter-peak frequency does not appear to have had a significant impact on
patronage levels, while the new evening service is attracting a small level of usage, not
atypical of Melbourne bus routes operating until 9pm.
As indicated in Table 2 above, this route had timetabled service hours decline by 12% while
patronage increased by 20%. Average boardings per service hour increased from 21 in
February 2014 to 29 in February 2015, suggesting a highly successful service level change.
11
Figure 6: Weekday boardings per hour on route 400, before and after the network changes
400 - Normal Weekday boardings per route & hour
Average Boardings
300
250
200
150
February 2014
100
February 2015
50
0
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Hour
4.4 Case study: Increasing peak frequency and route directness in a commuter
area - routes 418, 421
Route 418 operates between a relatively new suburb of Caroline Springs along a direct path
to Keilor Plains Station (with connections to trains), and then onto St Albans Station (refer
Figure 3). Analysis of demographics found a relatively high concentration of inner city
workers and a high rate of workforce and education participation in Caroline Springs
compared to the areas around and to the east of the Sunbury rail line. PTV therefore desired
to increase the peak period frequency west of Keilor Plains, but was concerned that simply
upgrading the existing route would have consumed significant resources along the existing
indirect route section between Keilor Plains and St Albans stations.
To facilitate this peak frequency increase, Route 418 was restructured to take a more direct
path from Keilor Plains Station to Keilor Shopping Centre and then to St Albans Station.
Neighbourhood Route 421 was rerouted to maintain network coverage east of the rail line
where Route 418 previously operated, actually becoming slightly less direct itself (although
PTV expected few customers to travel long distances along this route). Both routes
continued to serve the Keilor Shopping Centre – the only significant patronage generator
between Keilor Plains and St Albans stations.
Despite a reduced catchment from a shortening of Route 418’s length by 26%, overall
patronage increased by 4%. A doubling of peak frequency (to 20 minute headways) slightly
offset the reduced route length such that total timetabled service hours rose by 4%. This
implies a short run service elasticity of around 1.0, which is well above the expectations for a
simple frequency improvement, suggesting other factors are at play.
Table 3 shows that weekday commuter peak period patronage increased by 16%, despite
the reduced route length and therefore catchment, with an implied service elasticity of 0.57.
We suggest that this strong short-run result reflects more than just a frequency increase –
namely, careful targeting of increased peak frequency to an area with favourable
demographics (ie high workforce/education participation and central city worker density), as
well as the improved route directness between Keilor Plains and St Albans.
While inter-peak patronage declined by 16%, patronage per route kilometre increased by
13%, and there was no change in service headways (40 minutes).
Route 421 increased in length by 75% but the introduction of later evening and Sunday
services meant timetabled service hours increased 119%. Patronage increased by 89%,
suggesting a service elasticity of 0.75, which is an excellent short run result. While the endto-end route was made less direct, the route alignment was straightened in several sections.
We suggest the strong result can be attributed to a combination of localised improvements in
directness and increased span of operating hours.
12
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus Network Reform in Melbourne
Table 3: Changes in service and patronage attributes for route 418.
Peak change
-26%
+16%
+28%
+16%
0.57
Route length
Patronage
Service quantum (hours)
Patronage per route km
Implied service elasticity
Inter-peak change
-26%
-16%
-18%
+13%
0.92
All week change
-26%
+4%
+4%
+40%
1.0
4.5 Case study: Improved route directness and span on route 424
Route 424 is a neighbourhood route that operates between Brimbank Shopping Centre and
St Albans Station (refer Figure 3). Before the network restructure, this route overlapped with
routes 422 and 425, and took a relatively indirect path. In order to “untangle” the network,
this route was altered to run directly along Main Road West, with Route 425 covering the
Gillespie Road catchment to the north and Route 422 being discontinued.
Weeknight services were also extended from 6:40pm to 8:33pm (departing St Albans),
Saturday frequency was upgraded from 60 minutes to 40 minutes (with largely unchanged
span of hours) and a 40 minute Sunday a service was introduced (with services starting
approximately 80 minutes later than Saturdays).
The route length reduced by 26% and total weekly service hours reduced by 11%, while
weekly patronage grew by 23%. This suggests improved route directness, together with
reduced route overlap and increased span of hours led to a significantly more productive bus
route. Figure 7 shows that patronage growth was particularly strong in the evening despite
the shorter route length, including 21% growth in the peak (4-7pm) and 428% after 7pm. This
is likely explained by a combination of increased route directness and increased span of
hours – perhaps making commuters more confident to use the service because they are less
at risk of missing the last bus if they are delayed. Without surveying customers, it is difficult
to fully appropriate the patronage gains to each improvement factor.
Saturday patronage per route kilometre grew by 38%, against a 50% increase in service
frequency. Sunday patronage averaged 77% of Saturday patronage in the ‘after’ period.
Figure 7: Weekday boardings per hour on Route 424, before and after the network upgrade
which saw the route length reduce by 26%.
424 - Normal Weekday boardings per route & hour
Average Boardings
120
100
80
60
February 2014
40
February 2015
20
0
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Hour
4.6 Performance of new bus routes
For new routes 420, 427 and 428 it is very difficult to assess a before/after improvement due
to substantial network changes in the Sunshine West area (refer Figure 3). These new routes
were found to have figures of 22, 16, and 19 boardings per service hour in the first 3-6
months respectively. These figures are lower than the figures of 23 and 36 boardings per
service hour of previous routes 451 and 454.
13
However, PTV also found that these new routes suffered from early running issues, a result
of the bus operator insisting upon conservatively generous timetabled running times. This
early running results in both buses sitting at timing points (in some cases up to 7 minutes)
and increases the risk that a bus will pass a bus stop before the advertised time at the stop,
making the service unreliable against the timetable. PTV implemented a revised route 420
timetable in June 2015 with scheduled running times reduced by around 18%, with
unchanged same service levels, and is therefore expected to achieve 26 boardings per
service hour before expected further growth from decreased journey times and more reliable
services. We therefore expect this route to perform above the Melbourne metropolitan
average of 23 boardings per service hour. PTV similarly plans to reduce excessive running
times on routes 427 and 428 in a future timetable change, and would expect further
patronage improvements.
5 Conclusion
The Brimbank bus review has introduced a new successful approach to bus network
planning in Melbourne. By working with best practice principles, a solid evidence base, and
adopting a whole of network perspective, PTV have been able to optimise bus network
design to deliver strong patronage gains with a limited budget. Indeed, the challenge of
working within a defined budget, as opposed to making recommendations unconstrained by
budget, has contributed to the success of this review in contrast to the previous 2010 review
that resulted in little action.
PTV introduced a bus network hierarchy to suburban Melbourne, with relatively direct and
frequent bus services on main roads attracting new patronage, being successfully
complemented by less direct and less frequent neighbourhood routes in other areas.
Considerably improved efficiency was introduced by utilising school buses outside the PM
school peak, increasing route directness, and reducing over-servicing in low demand areas.
This allowed PTV to increase the proportion of Brimbank residents within 800 metres of a
service operating every 20 minutes in peak periods from 66% to 90%, with only one new bus
added the network fleet.
This paper has presented a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of network
changes, by considering patronage growth beyond changes in service levels and accounting
for exogenous factors. The overall implied service elasticity of 0.6 is well above what might
be expected from merely an increased service quantum provided after six months,
suggesting improved network design has been a significant driver of patronage growth.
Indeed the new network has generated several instances of bus routes where total
timetabled service hours were reduced, but patronage increased.
While it is not possible to satisfy the needs and desires of all residents in restructuring a bus
network, the new planning approach has generated a network offering that more residents
choose to use. The experience should provide confidence to network planners that strong
patronage growth can be achieved with good network design and limited new funding.
PTV will be seeking to conduct further research, including engaging with customers, to
understand in more detail the elements of network design that have been most successful at
growing patronage.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank Public Transport Victoria for permission to publish this paper, and
Peter Parker, Huw Millichip, Ray Kinnear, and Helen Witton for their encouragement and
support.
14
Bringing Better Buses to Brimbank- Implementing Bus Network Reform in Melbourne
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