Share Investment Analysing Financial Statements 1 Using Ratios Ratios are used to summarise the data on financial statements in order to capture in one number a particular aspect of operations. These numbers usually take three forms Ratios (one value compared to another) Percentages (ratios expressed as a value out of 100) Amounts (in £) In order to see whether a particular value shows a good or a bad investment, you will need to view it in context. The yellow post-its on the slides try to put the ratio in context. 2 The Different types of Ratio We will look at three different types of Ratio used in Financial Analysis: 1. Profitability How successful is the business? 2. Liquidity Is the flow of cash sufficient to meet obligations? 3. Investment Does the company represent a good investment for shareholders? 3 The Different Types of Ratio 1. Profitability 4 Profitability Ratios Profitability Ratios attempt to measure whether or not the business is financially successful. The amount of of profit made by a company in a particular year may give a distorted picture of the company’s position. A £1.5m profit generated on a turnover of £10m, can look very good. The same profit on a turnover of £100m looks poor. However there may be reasons why the first company has generated so much profit; there could be a one-off sale of assets, for example, which have increased in value. 5 Example Spreadsheet The Spreadsheet Ratio Analysis gives the full set of examples and the details of the calculations carried out. We will look at one example of each type of calculation Managing Finance & Budgets - Ratio Analysis Profitability (Activity 2) Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Year 1 Year 2 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 2,681,200 2,072,000 609,200 362,800 246,400 6,200 76,000 60,000 104,200 334,100 301,700 60,000 Profitability (Activity 2) Gross Margin% Net Margin% ROSF ROCE Year 1 22.1% 10.8% 31.8% 34.8% Year 2 22.7% 9.2% 25.8% 35.4% 6 Gross Profit or Gross Margin This is simply the percentage return that the company has made on its sales or services, only taking into consideration what it cost us to sell the items or to undertake the services. Profit made on what we have sold Total Income for the Year This profit is the largest that we can reasonably claim; it is the difference between the money coming in, and the expenditure incurred in order to make the sale or to render the service. 7 Activity Two Solutions Gross Margin% In the spreadsheet: Profit & Loss Data Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Year 1 Year 2 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 2,681,200 2,072,000 609,200 362,800 246,400 6,200 76,000 60,000 104,200 334,100 301,700 60,000 8 Gross Margin% The P & L Account Shows: Sales Gross Profit £2,240,000 £494,600 (NB Gross Profit = Turnover – Cost of Sales) Gross Margin% 494600 x 100 2240000 = = 22.1% The company makes 22p for every £1 it brings in. This can be used to pay overheads etc. 9 Net Profit or Net Margin This is simply the real percentage return that the company has made on its sales or services, this time taking into account all operating costs . In other words.. Actual Profit made on what we have sold Total Income for the Year This profit is a more conservative estimate. It takes into consideration the overheads (fixed costs) required to run the business. 10 Activity Two Solutions Net Margin% In the spreadsheet: Profit & Loss Data Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Year 1 Year 2 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 2,681,200 2,072,000 609,200 362,800 246,400 6,200 76,000 60,000 104,200 334,100 301,700 60,000 11 Net Margin% The P & L Account Shows: Sales Net Profit after Tax and Dividends (NB Net Profit = Net Margin% £2,240,000 £118,200 Turnover – Cost of Sales- Overheads) = 118200 x 100 2240000 = 10.8% After paying all outstanding costs, the company makes 11p for every £1 it brings in. 12 Return on ordinary Shareholders’ Funds ROSF is the profit after tax expressed as a percentage of the shareholder’s investment. Actual Profit made (after tax) Total Amount of Shareholders’ claims This measure indicates to shareholders the growth of their investment. 13 Activity Two Solutions ROSF% In the spreadsheet: Profit & Loss Data Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Year 1 Year 2 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 2,681,200 2,072,000 609,200 362,800 246,400 6,200 76,000 60,000 104,200 334,100 301,700 60,000 14 ROSF% The P & L Account Shows: Net Profit after Tax and Dividends Share Capital Reserves ROSF% = £118,200 £300,000 £197,500 £497,500 118200 x 100 497500 = 31.8% The company is making 32p for every £1 invested by shareholders. 15 Return on Capital Employed ROCE is the profit (before tax) expressed as a percentage of the total money invested in the company (this includes Long Term Loans). Actual Profit made (before tax) Total Amount Invested This measure indicates the extent to which all funds have been gainfully employed. 16 Activity Two Solutions ROCE% In the spreadsheet: Profit & Loss Data Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Year 1 Year 2 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 2,681,200 2,072,000 609,200 362,800 246,400 6,200 76,000 60,000 104,200 334,100 301,700 60,000 17 ROCE% The P & L Account Shows: Net Profit (before Tax & Interest) Share Capital Reserves LT Loans ROCE% = £242,600 £300,000 £197,500 £200,000 £697,500 242600 x 100 697500 = 34.8% Including loans, the company makes 35p for every £1 invested in the business. 18 Summary of the Profitability Ratios We look at four ratios: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Gross Margin% = Gross Profit x 100 Sales ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Net Margin% = Net Profit before tax & interest x 100 Sales ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Return on Ordinary Shareholders Funds (ROSF) = Net Profit after tax and preference dividends x100 (Share Capital + Reserves) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) = Net Profit before tax and interest x100 (Share Capital + Reserves+ LT Loans) 19 The Different Types of Ratio 2. Liquidity 20 Liquidity Ratios These Ratios seek to answer the question: ‘Can the business pay its way?’ All of these ratios look at the flow of cash in the company, and try to determine whether or not, at a particular point in time, the business has enough cash to pay what it owes. Liquidity = amount of stock, debt etc., which can be easily converted into cash 21 Example Spreadsheet The ratios in this section refer to the items in the second part of the spreadsheet Liquidity (Activity 3) Year 1 Trade Debtors Bank Account Opening Stock Value Closing Stock Value Trade Creditors Dividends owing Corporation tax owing Net Cashflow from Operations 240,800 33,500 241,000 300,000 221,400 40,200 60,200 231,000 Year 2 210,200 41,000 300,000 370,800 228,800 60,000 76,000 251,400 Liquidity (Activity 3) Year 1 Year 2 Current Assets 574,300 622,000 Current Liabilities 321,800 364,800 Current Ratio 1.8 1.7 Acid Test 0.9 0.7 22 Current Ratio The Current Ratio is simply the total current Assets compared to the total current Liabilities. Current Assets Current Liabilities In order to be solvent, a company should have a ratio greater than 1, in other words, in the day-to-day workings of the company, there should be enough resources available to pay our debts. 23 Current Ratio In the spreadsheet (Liquidity): Trade Debtors Bank Account Opening Stock Value Closing Stock Value Trade Creditors Dividends owing Corporation tax owing Net Cashflow from Operations 240,800 33,500 241,000 300,000 221,400 40,200 60,200 231,000 210,200 41,000 300,000 370,800 228,800 60,000 76,000 251,400 24 Current Ratio Current Assets : Trade Debtors Bank Account Closing Stock Value £240,800 £33,500 £300,000 £574,300 Current Liabilities: Trade Creditors Dividends Owing Corporation Tax Owing Current Ratio = 574300 321800 £221,400 £40,200 £60,200 £321,800 = 1.8 The business owns almost twice as much as it owes 25 Acid-Test Ratio The Acid Test Ratio is simply the Current Assets (minus the Stock) compared to the total current Liabilities. Current Assets Current Liabilities Some Authorities argue that if a company has to sell all its stock to cover its debt, it has a cash-flow problem. Therefore, this ratio too should be greater than 1. 26 Acid Test Ratio In the spreadsheet (Liquidity ): Trade Debtors Bank Account Opening Stock Value Closing Stock Value Trade Creditors Dividends owing Corporation tax owing Net Cashflow from Operations 240,800 33,500 241,000 300,000 221,400 40,200 60,200 231,000 210,200 41,000 300,000 370,800 228,800 60,000 76,000 251,400 27 Acid Test Ratio Current Assets excluding Stock : Trade Debtors Bank Account £240,800 £33,500 £274,300 Current Liabilities: Trade Creditors Dividends Owing Corporation Tax Owing Acid Test Ratio = 274300 = 321800 £221,400 £40,200 £60,200 £321,800 0.9 Excluding stock, the business owns almost as much as it owes.. 28 Summary of the Liquidity Ratios We look at two ratios: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Current ratio = Current Assets (Over 1 for solvency) Current Liabilities e.g. Current ratio of 1.5 = £1.50 owned for every £1 owed ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Acid test = Current Assets excluding stock Current Liabilities ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 29 The Different Types of Ratio 3. Investment 30 Investment Ratios These ratios all seek to measure the value of the shareholder’s investment in the company, and the return on that investment. It should be noted that the money the shareholder may have paid for the shares, may not reflect either their current market value, or the actual stake it represents in the company. For example, shares in TSB were originally sold at £1.00 each in the 1980s. This represents the capital invested in the company. If you had bought these shares in 1996 you would have paid around £11.00 per share. Currently they are trading at around £6.00 per share. 31 Spreadsheet The spreadsheet uses the figures given in sections 2 and 3 above , and the additional figures below, to callculate and comment on shareholder value for the two years shown: Number of Ordinary Shares Preference Dividends/Shares Market Price Per Share YEAR 1 600,000 NIL 2.50 YEAR 2 668,200 NIL 3.50 32 Dividend per Share This is the amount in pence that each shareholder gets for each share that they own. From the spreadsheets: Profit & Loss Data Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Shareholder Value Data Number of ordinary shares Market price per share Year 1 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 Year 1 600,000 2.50 33 Dividend per Share Dividends Announced Number of Shares £40,200 600,000 Dividend per Share = 40200 600000 = £0.067 Each shareholder gets 6.7p for each share they own. 34 Dividend Payout This is the proportion of the profits that has been distributed to shareholders. From the spreadsheets: Here we are assuming that these are ordinary, rather than preferential dividends Profit & Loss Data Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Year 1 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 35 Dividend Payout Net Profit Interest Tax £242,600 - £24,000 - £60,200 Net profit after interest/tax £158,400 Dividends Announced Dividend Payout = £40,200 40200 x 100 158400 = 25.4% One quarter of the total profit is paid out in dividends to shareholders. 36 This is the rate of return that shareholders are getting on their investment through dividends. Dividend Yield From the spreadsheet and the first example in this section: Dividends Announced Number of Shares £40,200 600,000 Dividend per Share = 40200 600000 = In addition, we will be assuming a tax rate of 20% £0.067 Shareholder Value Data Number of ordinary shares Market price per share Year 1 600,000 2.50 37 Dividend Yield Dividend per share £0.067 Market Price per Share Tax Rate £2.50 20% NB: Dividend Yield = 20% = 0.2 0.067/(1 – 0.2) x 100 2.50 Shareholders are currently getting a rate of return of 3.35% on their investment at market value (compare Inflation ~ 2%) = 3.35% 38 Earnings per Share This is the amount in pence that the company is earning per share. From the spreadsheets: Here we are again assuming that these are ordinary, rather than preferential dividends Shareholder Value Data Number of ordinary shares Market price per share Profit & Loss Data Sales Cost of Sales Gross Profit Overheads Net Profit Interest Tax Dividends Net profit after tax and dividends Share Capital Reserves LT Loans Year 1 2,240,000 1,745,400 494,600 252,000 242,600 24,000 60,200 40,200 118,200 300,000 197,500 200,000 Year 1 600,000 2.50 39 Earnings per Share Net Profit Interest Tax £242,600 - £24,000 - £60,200 Net profit after interest/tax £158,400 Number of shares issued: 600,000 Earnings per Share: = 158400 600000 The company is making about 26p for every share that is held. = £0.264 40 Price/Earnings Ratio This is the time in years it will take to earn an amount equal to the original investment. From the spreadsheet, and the 4th ratio in this set: Shareholder Value Data Number of ordinary shares Market price per share Net Profit Interest Tax Net profit after interest/tax £242,600 - £24,000 - £60,200 £158,400 Number of shares issued: 600,000 Earnings per Share: = 158400 600000 = £0.264 Year 1 600,000 2.50 41 Price/Earnings Ratio Market Price per share: £2.50 Earnings per share: £0.264 Price/Earnings Ratio: The market price of a share is about 10 times the profit made by the share. (may be better the other way round – each share earns about one-tenth of its current market value in a year) = 2.50 0.264 = 9.45 42 Comparison of Ratios In 2000 was a poor investment, and the share price dropped dramatically. In 2001 the investment improved, but still it was not as good a bet as the supermarkets. Share Price P/E Share Price P/E Date 2/8/00 2/8/00 22/9/01 22/9/01 SAFEWAY 283.5 17.5 319 14 SAINSBURY 322 17.6 327 18.2 TESCO 221 21.9 238 19.6 MAN UTD. 321 54.4 122 20.3 43 Summary of the Investment Ratios Dividend per share = _Dividends announced__ Number of issued shares _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Dividend payout = Dividends announced x 100 Net profit after interest/tax/pref.dividends . _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Dividend Yield = Dividend per share/(1-tax rate) x 100 Market value per share _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Earnings per share = Net profit after interest/tax/pref.dividends Number of issued shares _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Dividend Cover ratio = Net profit after interest/tax/pref.dividends Dividends announced _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Price/earnings ratio = Market price per share Earnings per share 44 Example of Analysis Using Financial ratios 45 Analysing a Company’s Performance The next slide shows five different ratios calculated from the published accounts of J. Sainsbury PLC, summarising the company’s performance over the five-year period 1996-2000 As you look through these figures, you should ask yourself: What trends can be detected? Is the company improving its performance? Would you consider investing in the company? 46 Ratio Analysis - J Sainsbury Plc TURNOVER (£ million) PROFIT BEFORE TAX NET MARGIN (%) EARNINGS PER SHARE DIVIDEND PER SHARE DIVIDEND COVER 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 13,499 13,312 15,496 16,378 17,414 764 651 728 755 580 5.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 3.3% 26.8p 22.0p 25.1p 29.2p 18.3p 12.1p 12.3p 13.9p 14.32p 14.32p 2.21 1.78 1.8 2.03 1.27 Figures taken from J Sainsbury Plc Website - 2 August 2000 Dividend cover is the reciprocal form of the Dividend Payout Ratio 47 Ratio Analysis: J Sainsbury Plc Axis scales have been modified to enable comparisons to be made TURNOVER (£ million) PROFIT BEFORE TAX NET MARGIN (%) EARNINGS PER SHARE DIVIDEND PER SHARE 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 DIVIDEND COVER 48 Comparison of ratios It can be noted from the previous slides that while the turnover has increased steadily over the five-year period, the profit before tax, fluctuates somewhat, with a sharp downturn in 2000. The downward trend is even more evident from the net margin, which has down a steady reduction over the 5 years. On the other hand, the dividend per share rose steadily over the first 4 years, and maintaining this level in 2000. However, the earnings per share shows a much less impressive performance. 49 The Limitations of Ratios Analyses which only use ratios only give a limited vision: The quality of base data in financial statements may be suspect. Ratios can measure relative performance, but do not allow for scale (see Sainsbury example). They give only a basis for comparison – we need to compare like with like. Some ratios ( balance sheet - e.g.) measuring at a single point in time, and not over a period. One off events such as disposal of assets can give rise to major distortions. 50