Computers in a
Changing
Society
By John Preston, Robert Ferrett,
and Sally Preston
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
1
Computers in a
Changing Society
Chapter 7
The Past Shapes
the Future
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
2
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
Learning Objectives
I.
The Past
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Recognize factors that influenced computer development in the U.S.
Understand the relationship of patent and copyright to the U.S. Constitution
Identify examples of entrepreneurs and their motivations
Become aware of the technologically related advantages after World War II
Identify types of research conducted by companies and the government
Identify examples of computer technology developed by IBM, Bell, Xerox, Stanford, and
the University of Illinois
Understand policies regarding ownership of inventions at Stanford and U of I
Understand the role of venture capital in technology start-ups
Recognize contributions of counterculture
Understand the implications of Moore's law and Metcalfe's law
Develop familiarity with leadership of computer companies by founding entrepreneurs
Identify key elements of Microsoft's history
Identify key elements of Apple's history
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
3
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
Learning Objectives
II.
The Future
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Become familiar with the legal environment
Understand the effect of capital gains taxes
Recognize factors that encourage entrepreneurs
Understand the importance of basic research to future growth
Understand the value of cultural diversity and tolerance
Identify examples of new technologies that may extend Moore's law
Recognize expected changes in the computer/human interface
Develop familiarity with developments in artificial intelligence
Develop familiarity with the use of robots
Understand the effect of more connectivity
Understand the effect of aging leadership in the computer industry
Identify examples of impact on health, military, and the government
Develop familiarity with coping strategies
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
4
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
The Past Shapes the Present
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Age of ubiquitous personal computers and networked connectivity
1970s mainframe dominance
1970s and 1980s Japanese business model and market share
1982—Japan’s Ministry of Trade and Industry (MITI)
supercomputing plans
Eight interconnecting factors creating a personal computer society
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Rule of Law
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Patent and copyright laws established by U.S. founders
U.S. Constitution guarantees the rights of authors and
inventors
Right of authors and inventors to profit from original work
recognized by Americans
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
5
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Spirit of Entrepreneurism
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The importance of historical figures
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Thomas Edison, Alexander Graham Bell, Henry Ford
Others—Success-based inventions and business ingenuity
Immigrants and the U.S. dream
Entrepreneur: A person who takes the risk of starting a new business
Other Countries—Creative works property of the government
U.S. protects entrepreneurs through copyright and patent laws
Computer Entrepreneurs
Post-World War II (WWII) Arms Race and Prosperity
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Soviet and American forces
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The race for scientific information and German rocket scientists
Cold war—Soviets and first satellite in orbit
U.S. and electronic component miniaturization
Transistors and integrated circuits
Economic advantage
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
6
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Company and University Research Labs
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Applied Research: Approach being used by
laboratories for seeking ways to make practical use
of an invention or discovery
Basic Research: Approach used to discover
completely new phenomena that may or may not
have a commercial application
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Large Companies and Basic Research Funding
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Profit related discoveries
The big three computing corporations: IBM, Bell
Laboratories, and Xerox
Government Agencies and Basic Research Funding
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Profit related discoveries and exploring the unknown
without commercialization
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
7
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Company and University Research Labs
Research Contributing Corporations—Bell Laboratories
Transistors
Communication Satellites
Lasers
Digital Signal Processors
Optical Fiber Communications
UNIX Operating Systems
Cell Phones
Research Contributing Corporations—IBM
One-Transistor Dynamic RAM Memory (DRAM)
Data Encryption Standard—Public/Private Encryption
Magnetic Disk Storage—Hard Disks
Scalable Parallel Systems w/Multiple Processors
Relational Databases
Speech Recognition Software
FORTRAN Computer Language
Deep Blue—32 processor computer
Research Contributing Corporations—Xerox
Laser Printers
Word Processing with WYSIWYG
SmallTalk—The First Object-Oriented Programming Language
Solid-State Lasers
Client/Server Computer Architecture
Pop-Up Menus
Graphic User Interface (GUI)
A Worm Program
Ethernet—Local Area Network (LAN)
Linguistic Technology—Spell Checkers, Thesaurus, and Dictionaries
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
8
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Company and University Research Labs
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University Research Labs
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Stanford—Example university that allowed students to keep rights to inventions
and spin off companies
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Three major companies founded: (a) SUN Microsystems (Stanford University Network)—
Internet Servers and Software; (b) Silicon Graphics (SGI)—Workstations; (c) CISCO
Systems—Network Infrastructure Devices
University of Illinois—Example university famous for denying Marc Andreessen
rights to Mosaic Web browser, which he later rewrote as Netscape
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University of Illinois licensed Mosaic rights to competitor, Spyglass, Inc.
Spyglass made agreement with Microsoft for incorporation into Windows as Internet
Explorer
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
9
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Venture Capital and Reduced Capital Gains Taxes
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Venture Capital
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Definition: Money risked to help people start new companies
Needed to created company for production and sale of invention
Individuals, not conservative institutions (banks), fund high-risk investments
Historical Perspective—Queen Isabella of Spain and Christopher Columbus
Mid 1950s—U.S. Government promoted small business investment companies (SBIC)
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Acted on behalf of individuals to pool venture capital to fund larger projects
Capital Gains: Profits made from investment in business
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Prior to 1974—Taxed at 35%; 1984—Congress reduced to 20% to stimulate
economic growth
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Result: More money for venture capitalism in 1980s
Counterculture of the 1970s
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The Effect of Vietnam War on Corporations and Government
Anti-War Sentiment
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Result: (a) Education professionals (teachers and professors) ; (b) Free software and
open source software
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
10
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially
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Falling Prices and Increasing Power
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Comparison of automobiles and computers
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Automobiles—Since 1982, improvements have occurred, yet cost has risen
IBM PCs—Since 1982, improvements have occurred, yet cost has decreased
Linear Growth: When the same amount is added to a number to obtain the next
number in a sequence
Exponential Growth: When something increases by a multiple in each interval,
such as doubling, like in Moore’s law
Moore’s Law: The computing power of integrated circuits will double every two
years
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Gordon Moore—One of Intel corporation founders
Predicted in 1965: Integrated circuits would increase in complexity while falling in
price at an exponential rate
Simplified Prediction: The power of integrated circuits per dollar of cost would
experience exponential growth
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
11
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
12
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Value of Connectivity Increasing Exponentially
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Inventor of Ethernet: Robert Metcalfe
Metcalfe’s Law: “The value of a network grows as the square of the
number of users.”
Subject Form—Hard to measure, but supported by Internet growth
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1983—Less than 1,000 connected to ARPANET (former Internet)
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2003—Over 600 million
Entrepreneurs Running Large Companies
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Internet Produced Rich and Powerful Companies
Quick to React to Industry Demands
Young Entrepreneurs—Microsoft, Apple, SUN, Oracle, and Dell
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Bill Gates—Microsoft
Steve Jobs—Apple
Michael Dell—Dell
Scott McNeely—SUN
Larry Ellison—Oracle
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
13
Computers in a Changing Society
I.
The Past
Chapter 7
Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
14
Computers in a Changing Society
I.
The Past
Chapter 7
Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
15
Computers in a Changing Society
I.
The Past
Chapter 7
Hardware Increasing in Power Exponentially
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
16
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Microsoft
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Traditional Values—Junior & Senior Fundraiser
Bill Gates (8th Grade) and Paul Allen (10th Grade)—Friends with programming
interest
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Gates
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Harvard freshman when Intel released 8088 microprocessor and the first PC,
Altair
Dropped out of Harvard and started Microsoft with Allen
Adopted BASIC programming language on new computer
IBM
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Gets into PC business
Hired Microsoft to develop operating system (OS), called PC-DOS
Introduced IBM PC in 1981
IBM allows Microsoft to retain rights to sell OS, called MS-DOS
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
17
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Microsoft
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Clones: Rival computers that were functional copies of the IBM PC
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Late 1980s PC Market Share: 80% with 40% IBM
Microsoft received royalty from sale of non-IBM computers using MS-DOS
Clone becomes stronger than IBM PC
Other rival: Apple with unique operating system, different hardware,
and in 1984 introduced graphic user interface (GUI)
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
18
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Microsoft—Becomes software developing giant
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Windows Operating System (OS) with Utilities
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Windows Office
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Productivity Suite—Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and Access
Microsoft—One of most profitable corporations in the world
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Microsoft rewards employees (ownership)
Bill Gates
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One of richest people in the world
Philanthropic endowments
Microsoft Critics
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(a) Accusations of unfair advantage
(b) 2001—U.S. Supreme Court ruled Microsoft guilty of unfair business
practices
(c) Microsoft faces lawsuits in Europe over business practices
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
19
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Microsoft
Milestone
Year
Gates and Allen learn to program
1969
Microsoft founded
1975
BASIC language adapted to the Altair PC
1975
IBM PC with DOS by Microsoft introduced.
MS retains rights to sell clone makers
1981
Microsoft Office for Macintosh
1989
Graphic user interface added to DOS, Windows 3.0
1990
Windows 95—Competes successfully with Apple GUI
1995
Internet Explorer
1997
Found guilty of unfair competitive business practices
2001
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
20
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Counterculture and Reaction to Big Business
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1970s—Berkeley and Stanford
Groups like Home Brew Computer Club at Stanford share inventions and discoveries
Steve Wozniak
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Genius inventor of “blue box” created from circuits
Started work on own PC and demonstrated it at Home Brew Computer Club
Working for Hewlett-Packard Electronics, which was offered first rights on invention
Steve Jobs
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Realized potential of chips and credits Wozniak with blue box
Visionary entrepreneur of Apple I
A.C. Markkula invested undisclosed amount in venture capital and became CEO
Arthur Rock, venture capitalist, funded $600K to launch Apple II
Market share 50% in a few years
Steve Jobs worth $20M
Dan Bricklin developed a popular software program called VisiCalc for financial projections
1981—IBM introduced the IBM PC, which was similar to Apple II
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Counterculture and Reaction to Big Business
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Researchers at Xerox PARC invented the Alto
Cost over $10K and Xerox did not see its potential value
1979, Jobs toured the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center where he saw the graphic user interface (GUI)
Jobs dropped development efforts to devote all company’s resources to creating an affordable computer
with graphical user interface, known as Macintosh
1985, Jobs left Apple and company floundered
Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, announced the possibility of buying Apple
1996, Jobs returned to Apple after selling NexT to Apple
Jobs revitalized the company with high-quality products
1997, Microsoft invested $150 million in Apple as well as technology collaboration
Jobs departure and return demonstrates the importance of visionary entrepreneurs
Apple Computers
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Loyal following
Typically more stylish than other PCs
Users of Macintosh computers—“Mac People”
View Microsoft as the corporate ethic which they rebel against
Brand loyalty sparks debate
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
22
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Apple
Milestone
Year
Jobs drops out of college and immerses himself in the counterculture
1973
Jobs travels to India seeking enlightenment
1974
Jobs attends the Home Brew Computer Club with Wozniak. They start the Apple company.
1974
Apple introduces the Apple I computer
1976
A.C. Markkula invests and becomes chairman of the board. Arthur Rock and the
Rockefellers invest $600,000 of venture capital
1977
Apple II
1977
Apple III—recalled the first 14,000 units, cost $10,000, lost money
1981
John Scully moves from Pepsi to run Apple
1983
Macintosh with GUI introduced in famous Super Bowl ad
1984
Scully ousts Jobs, who leaves Apple and founds NexT. Apple lays off 1,200 employees
1985
Apple sues Microsoft over Windows
1988
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
23
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
I.
The Past
Examples—Microsoft and Apple
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Apple
Milestone
Year
Apple lays off 15,600 employees
1991
Apple loses lawsuit against Microsoft
1992
Apple introduces Newton PDA. Scully replaced. 2,500 employees laid off
1993
IBM offers to buy Apple
1994
Apple recalls laptops when two burst into flames
1995
Apple lays off 1,300 employees. Apple and SUN discuss merger. Second quarter loss of
$700 million predicted
1996
Apple buys NexT and Jobs returns to Apple
1996
Larry Ellison considers buying Apple. Jobs appointed interim CEO at a salary of $1 per year
until return to profitability
1997
Apple introduces iMac, PowerBook G3, returns to profitability
1998
Jobs named full CEO
2000
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
24
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Rule of Law
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Rights of Authors and Inventors
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Protecting the rights of authors and inventors
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Fundamental right and constitutional responsibility of the U.S. Congress
Difficult to enforce
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Digital copying and distributed file servers over the Internet
Methods of distributing media
Methods of payment
Preventing software piracy
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Microsoft and .NET strategy—Charge for software on annual license renewal
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Voluntary payment
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National Science Foundation study
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U.S. computer industry prosperity
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Depends on attracting best and brightest globally
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U.S. Incentive is protection of right to profit from ideas
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Entrepreneurism and Venture Capital
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Fame and Fortune
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Entrepreneurs seek fame and fortune
Need to produce popular product or service
Venture capitalists fund entrepreneurs
Capital gains ups and downs
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Intel and Apple
Congress controls capital gains
Microsoft—Lower consumer cost vs. healthy economic competition
Microsoft—Employee application developers have “secret” unfair advantage
Fame
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Famous inventors—Thomas Edison and Wright brothers
Computer science and engineering—nerds and geeks
Economy dependent upon future scientists
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Encouraging youth through diverse role models
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
26
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Research and Post-World War II Prosperity
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United States
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Advantage of time and money to create new technologies
Soviet Union collapse in 1990—U.S. becomes world super power
Diminishing domestic resources
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Importing necessities
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Exporting high-tech goods and services
U.S. leads world in research
Continued strength depends upon research
Census bureau—Trade balance indicator of prosperity
Supporting research and continued economic prosperity
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Regulatory and tax environment that encourages future investment
Government and corporate policy that supports basic research
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Diversity of Cultures
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Computing Culture
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Diversity abounds in America and the world of computing
Counterculture of the 1970s
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Influence evident in Internet—shareware, freeware, open source programs
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Diversity of computing ensures healthy economic growth
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Promote diversity
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Recognize contributions of counterculture, entrepreneurs, and big business
Invite global diversity to the U.S.
Hardware and Software
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Moore’s law
Nanotechnology: Devices measured in nanometers (billionths of a meter)
Sumio Iijima, Scientist at NEC, and discovery of carbon nanotubes
Nantero, a start-up Massachusetts-based company, and the terabyte (1 million
megabytes) memory chip—32 gigahertz by 2012
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Hardware and Software
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Example Advanced Technologies
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Changes in the Computer/Human Interface
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Replacing the monitor—CRTs to flat panel,
miniaturization, and retinal imaging
Replacing the keyboard and mouse
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Voice recognition, digital divide,
and fingertip clips
Virtual Reality and Avatars
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Virtual Reality (VR): Artificial world
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User interactive
Biological integration—Visual displays
Avatars: Animated images used in virtual reality
Gaming popularity
Movies—Artificial characters
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
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The ability of computers to think like a human or think in a
completely new way that might be superior to human thought
Intelligent machine—Forces definition of human intelligence
Turing test—Devised by Alan Turing in 1950s
IBM’s Deep Blue and world champion chess match
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Deep computing: AI methods exhibited by IBM’s Deep Blue
IBM’s Deep Computing Institute
Expert systems: Providing consultation for complex problems
Data mining: Finding patterns in large databases
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Artificial Intelligence (AI)
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AI Limitations
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Human brain does not work like a digital computer
People use knowledge—Context
Cycorp—Developing database called “Common Sense”
Ambiguity of human language
Problem solving
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Algorithms—step-by-step series of instructions used to write computer programs
Difficult to get computer to do what is meant rather than what is said
People are not programmed—they learn from experience
Transistors vs. Thinking and the Human Brain
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Fuzzy logic: Rules that deal with less exact situations (close is good enough)
Fuzzy logic circuits—hand-held video cameras
Pattern recognition: Ability to identify something from characteristic arrangement of features
IBM research scientists
Neural networks—a modeling technique based on the observed behavior of biological neurons.
Used to mimic the performance of a system and found in applications such as robotics,
diagnosing, forecasting, image processing, and pattern recognition
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
31
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Robots
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Karel Capek, Czech playwright
Czech word “robota” means work
Miniature robots built with nanotechnology
Larger robots used in manufacturing industry
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Robots perform welding and hazardous work
Robots do not look like humans
Robotics statistics
Science fiction writers—humanoid robots
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Moral and ethical questions
Silicon-based life forms: term for sentient AI computer systems
Carbon-based life forms: human beings
Continuous Connectivity
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Converging communications technology
Internet2
Regional net fragmentation
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Aging of Leadership
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Young Leaders of Computer Revolution
Name
Company and Position
Year Born
Current Age
Bill Gates
Microsoft —CSA and Chairman
1955
Late 40s
Steve Balmer
Microsoft—CEO
1956
Late 40s
Steve Jobs
Apple—CEO
1955
Late 40s
Michael Dell
Dell—CEO
1965
Mid 30s
Scott McNeely
SUN—CEO
1960
Late 40s
Larry Ellison
Oracle—CEO
1945
Late 50s
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Maturing Attitudes and Changing Values
Loss of Corporate Leadership—Future Retirement
Challenge of Retaining Inspired Leadership and Visionary Ability
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Examples
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Exponential Increase in Processor Power
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Expectations for next 15 years
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Health
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Revolutionary changes in biology and
human healthcare
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Robotics, Internet2, DNA mapping,
treating disease
Military
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Equipment and training—robotics,
simulations, surveillance
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Recruitment advertising
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Skills other than technological—
culture and languages
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Examples
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Exponential Increase in Processor Power
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Expectations for next 15 years
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Government
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Online voting
Law enforcement agencies and U.S. Patriot Act
Health insurance business
De facto national ID number—Biometrics and DNA sequence
Terrorist attacks and potential population migration
Confrontations—Cyberwar and fighting online
Increased foreign resource dependency
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
II.
The Present Shapes the Future
Coping With Computers in a Changing Society
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Utilizing Diverse Sources of Information
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Newspapers and television stations
Science fiction
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Extrapolation of future trends
Evaluate
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Look for opportunities as well as threats
Talk
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Converse with children—Learn, monitor, and assess
Life-long learning
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Planning for change
Developing new skills
Technology breaks
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Escaping from technology
Beauty of nature to gain perspective
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
36
Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
Chapter Summary
Outline
Objectives
The Past
 Factors that influenced computer development in the U.S.: (a) Rule of law; (b) Entrepreneurism; (c) Victory in WWI and Cold War;
(d) Research; (e) Venture capital; (f) Counterculture; (g) Exponential increase in computer power; (h) Exponential increase in value of
connectivity; (i) Entrepreneurs run large companies
 Relationship of patent and copyright to the U.S. Constitution: Constitutional right in Article I, section 8
 Examples of entrepreneurs: (a) Pre-WWII: Edison, Bell, Ford, Wright brothers; (b) Computer Era: Gates, Jobs, Dell, McNeely,
Ellison
 Motivations of entrepreneurs: Fame and fortune
 Advantages after WWII: (a) Factories not destroyed; (b) Space race pushed miniaturization
 Types of government and corporate research: (a) Applied—making products out of discoveries; (b) Basic—seeking new knowledge
 Examples of computer technology developed by IBM, Bell, Xerox, Stanford, and University of Illinois: (a) Bell labs—transistor,
laser, optical fiber, cell phones, communications satellites, digital signal processors, UNIX operating system; (b) IBM labs—DRAM,
hard disks, relational databases, FORTRAN language, public key encryption, scalable parallel processor systems, speech recognition,
Deep Blue chess and problem solving; (c) Xerox PARC—laser printers, object oriented programming, GUI, Ethernet, WYSIWYG
printing, solid state lasers, pop-up menus, worms, spell checking
 Policies regarding invention ownership: (a) Stanford allowed students ownership; (b) University of Illinois claims ownership
 Role of venture capital in technology start-ups: Funded Intel and Apple but not Microsoft
 Contributions of counterculture: (a) Freeware, shareware, open source programs; (b) Apple computer company
 Implications of Moore’s law: Power increases by a factor of two every two years
 Implications of Metcalfe’s law: Value of a network increases by the square of the elements connected to the network
 Leadership of computer companies by founding entrepreneurs: Microsoft, Apple, Dell, Oracle, SUN
 Microsoft history: (a) 1969—Gates and Allen learn to program; (b) 1975—Gates and Allen found Microsoft and adapt BASIC to the
Altair; (c) 1981—IBM PC introduced with PC-DOS from Microsoft; (d) 1989—MS Office adapted for Macintosh operating system; (e)
1990—Windows 3.0; (f) 1995—Windows 95; (g) 1997—Internet Explorer; (h) 2001—Guilty of unfair competition, ruled a monopoly
 Apple history: (a) 1976—Apple I; (b) 1977—Apple II; (c) 1984—Macintosh; (d) 1985—Jobs ousted; (e) 1988—Sues Microsoft over
Windows; (f) 1996—On verge of bankruptcy, Jobs returns; (g) 1997—Jobs made interim CEO; (h) 1998—iMac and PowerBook G3,
return to profitability; (i) 2000—Jobs made full CEO
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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Computers in a Changing Society
Chapter 7
Chapter Summary
Outline
Objectives
The Future
 Legal environment: Royalty payment systems adapting to protect copyright and attract foreign talent
 Effect of capital gains taxes: (a) Lower capital gains taxes on profits from tech investments stimulates investment; (b) Lowered to
18% in 2001
 Factors that encourage entrepreneurs: Fame and fortune
 Importance of basic research to future growth: Provides basis for applications research and new products
 Value of cultural diversity and tolerance: Creative new ideas combined with basic research and capitalism provide a unique mix
that can be very productive
 Example of new technologies that may extend Moore’s law: Nanotechnology like carbon nanotubes
 Expected changes in the computer/human interface: (a) Monitors replaced by projected images or visual implants; (b) Keyboard
replaced by voice recognition; (c) Mouse replaced by fingertip sensors; (d) Virtual reality environments with avatars representing
people
 Developments in artificial intelligence: (a) Deep computing wins chess match; (b) Expert systems give advice; (c) Data mining
programs look for patterns; (e) Fuzzy logic deals with situations that are partly true or false; (f) Pattern recognition; (g) Neural
networks mimic human brains
 Use of robots: (a) 100,000 used in manufacturing in North America; (b) Silicon-based life possible within our lifetime
 Effect of more connectivity: (a) Some become comfortable with loss of privacy; (b) Internet may split into regions
 Effect of aging leadership in the computer industry: (a) Possibly less innovative; (b) Entrenched power
 Examples of impact on health, military, and the government: (a) Health—implants that monitor organs, nanotechnology that
repairs and maintains organs, DNA deciphered, possible cures for nerve damage and old age; (b) Military—Increased sophistication
of surveillance and weapons with risk of becoming dependent on technology rather than human intelligence sources; (c)
Government—online voting slowly accepted, Biometrics and DNA used widely for law enforcement, government may take over
health insurance, government-sponsored cyber war.
 Coping strategies: (a) Diverse sources of information; (b) Read or watch quality science fiction; (c) Evaluate emerging
technologies for effects on your job; (d) Discuss new developments with children. Monitor them openly when appropriate; (e) Lifelong learning to maintain current job skills; (f) Take breaks from technology
© 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
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