The Next 25 Years American Demographics

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The Next 25 Years

American Demographics

2025 Forecast

In 20 years…..

People over 65 years old will dominate the population

White population majority will come closer to being a minority

More niche marketing campaign opportunities – as ethnic groups grow in numbers

U.S. Population Projections

2000: 280 million people 2025: 350 million people

Growth rates will mirror the Baby Boom era during the

1950s & 1960s after WWII

25% population increase

Growth rates are rising due to people living longer, birth rates holding steady and continued immigration

States’ Growth Rate

States’ Growth Rate con’t

Population Growth

Marketing Analysis

Every market segment will expand and it will be difficult to target groups with a single marketing strategy, as niche groups of today become the mass markets of tomorrow providing greater marketing opportunities

Niche Advertising Opportunities

Euro RSCG Latino

Mission:

Innovate marketing to Latinos in the U.S. and Latin America by applying a contemporary understanding of the marketplace, a simplified approach, and the full resources of a global communications agency.

Auto Industry Tailoring Ads to Minority Groups

Toyota Ad

"Tooth Art" Postcard

• The postcard featured an African American man with a large smile and a gold RAV4 emblem on his tooth.

• It was part of a "buzz" campaign using postcards distributed to hip urban nightspots and coffee houses

• Recognizing that the card might offend, Toyota pulled it from the marketplace prior to hearing of Rev. Jackson's concerns.

• The company has apologized publicly for the postcard and is taking steps to ensure that future marketing materials are appropriate for all audiences.

Auto Industry Tailoring Advertising for Minorities

Detroit - Automakers increasingly are targeting the Black, Hispanic and Asian-American communities with tailored advertising, as the purchasing power of minorities grows.

Whether they're selling a Toyota Camry or a Jaguar S-Type, companies are no longer taking a one-size-fits-all approach to marketing . Instead, they are creating ads that speak to specific groups and placing them in targeted media outlets. The increasing awareness of diversity sometimes trickles down into the way cars are designed, as automakers seek to fit the product to the consumer's lifestyle.

"Just about every major auto company has begun to realize it makes perfect sense to have culturally specific advertising ," said Randi

Payton, chief executive of On Wheels, which publishes the magazines African Americans on Wheels and Latinos on Wheels.

The share of such targeted marketing in overall marketing budgets has grown about 11% over the last five years, said Art Spinella, president of CNW Marketing Research in Bandon, Ore.

Companies spend about 9.8% of their marketing budgets on blacks, 16.2% on Hispanics and 3% on Asians, he said.

Auto Industry Example con’t

According to the 2000 census, 12.3% of the population identified itself as black, 12.5% Hispanic or Latino, and 3.6% Asian.

Automakers say they try to create ads that target a group's values , rather than simply placing their general-population ads in black-oriented newspapers or translating TV spots for Spanish-language stations.

"The overarching goal, which is true for all of our initiatives, is we're meeting customers on their terms," said Nathaniel Mason, a Ford spokesman.

At Toyota, diversity marketing translates into more family oriented ads for both Asians and Hispanics, said James Lentz, the company's vice president for marketing in the United States. The company's Hispanic advertising is generally "much more emotional," he added.

In the Chinese community, "the entire family is involved in the purchase decision," Lentz said. "So in the advertising, you'll see not only parents and children, but also grandparents."

Advertising geared at Blacks tends to feature celebrities, Spinella said, citing a recent Jaguar print ad with singer Natalie Cole.

Population Growth

The population growth will increase demand on natural resources causing them to be stretched out, possibly leading to shortages in land, water, power etc.

Marketing Analysis

Products and services will be analyzed on their environmental impact and marketing advertisements must take that into consideration

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Graying of America

Largest growth will be seen in those 65 and older

2000: 35 million 12% pop 2025: 70 million 25% pop

>100% increase in ages:

• 65-69

• 70-74

• 85+

Graying of America

Marketing Analysis

Shift from youth focused advertising to brands that attract older generations and ads tailored to adult preferences

- Marketers have to create an ageless society, since people want to be defined by their activities rather than their age

Example: Carnival Cruise Line TV ad

Featured an older couple getting up from dinner to go dance along with the younger crowd - showing activities suitable for all age groups

Ethnic Groups

Non-Hispanic Whites will still be the majority barely decrease from 70% to 60% of the population by 2025

Hispanic population nearly doubles

2000: 35 million 2025: 68 million

12% 19%

19.4%

Asian population will double

0.08%

6.7%

2000: 12 million 2025: 24 million

4% 7%

13.0%

60.1%

White

African American

Asian

Native American

Hispanic

Percent of Total Population

Ethnic Groups

Marketing Analysis

Companies must develop multicultural marketing strategies to address the diversity of their consumers. Ethnographic research will help them understand the culture of the emerging ethnic groups and help in identifying how to market to each group’s particular identity.

Bank of America defines "home" with families of color

Summary

The next 20 years…..

Will open up doors to marketing opportunities directed at the segmented markets resulting from the changing age and ethnicity demographics

The growing population will increase group representation and create markets that were not considered large enough to be profitable before

Marketing will need to be more multicultural, age sensitive and environmentally conscious

Sources

Alison Stein Wellner, “The Next 25 Years,” American

Demographics, 2003.

http://www.carnival.com

http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclocks.h

tml http://www.eurorscglatino.com

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/jan04/197945.as

p http://www.npg.org/popfacts.htm

http://www.toyota.com/html/diversity.html#ads

Interesting Facts

The United States has the highest growth rates of any industrialized country in the world.

The U.S. population is growing by about 3.2 million people each year.

Using the Census Bureau's medium projections, U.S. population is expected to grow to 400 million by the year 2050. Eight states have population growth rates over 2.0%, which means their population will double in less than 35 years. Florida’s population has grown from 1.9 million in 1940 to 15 million today. That is over a 600% increase in just 50 years.

Along our ecologically fragile coasts, where nearly half the population lives, the U.S. is among the most densely populated countries in the world. The

Northeast averages 767 people per square mile, while Haiti, for comparison, has 580. By 2010, when California’s population reaches 50 million, population densities in coastal California will reach 1,050 people per square mile.

Since 1980, the U.S. has converted more than 10 million acres of forest to suburb -- an area twice as large as Yellowstone, Everglades, Shenandoah, and

Yosemite National Parks combined.

Current

Age

50

60

70

80

90

10

20

30

40

Age Reference

U.S. population when you were born

248,709,873

226,542,199

203,302,031

179,323,798

151,325,798

132,164,569

123,202,624

106,021,537

92,228,496

Percent change in population since you were born

13%

24%

38%

57%

86%

113%

128%

166%

205%

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