Housing Conference 2015 on “Affordable Housing & Housing Finance” State Bank of Pakistan, May 28-29 Islamabad Mortgage Refinancing Facilities: Value Added, Conditions of Success Olivier Hassler Housing Finance Adviser ohhfinance@gmail.com 1 Introduction One of the instruments linking mortgage lenders to capital market Exists in numerous countries, in co-existence with other instruments in developed markets: USA the pioneer (1932) – Federal Home Loan Banks In the MENA Region: Algeria (SRH), Egypt (EMRC), Jordan (JMRC), Palestine (PMHC), KSA in preparation In Asia: India (NHB), Indonesia (SMF), Malaysia (Cagamas), Mongolia – now Pakistan In Europe: Austria, Switzerland, France, Armenia, Ukraine In Latin America: Mexico, Jamaica, Eastern Caribbean Federation In Sub Saharan Africa: Nigeria, West African Economic and Monetary Union, Tanzania What explains such a broad application of the model in very 2 different contexts? What has worked and what has not worked? Structure of the Presentation I. The Model and its Benefits II. Cases Studies III. Key Options and Conditions of Success 3 I. THE MODEL and its BENEFITS 4 Definition of a MRC An second tier institution that provides funding to housing finance lenders Acts as intermediary between lenders and capital markets Issues bonds to raise long term finance Lends against collateralized portfolios, or purchases loans with recourse 5 MRCs must not be confused with other models 1. Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac model Credit risk transferred to the second tier entities, with no recourse against the originators.. .. and de facto assumed by the government Ambiguous PPP model (rent seeking behavior from private shareholders) 2. Central Intra-group funding entities apex organizations (e.g.of cooperative banks networks) Spain Ahorro y Titulos structure for savings and loans – Central Covered Bonds issuing structures that buy securitized mortgages from local S&L (cajas) France 3CIF – basically similar to AyT 6 Functions and Benefits of MRCs 1. Lower funding cost vs issues by individual lenders scale effect prime standing (low risk profile) – and regulatory recognition limited intermediation cost Potential for market liquidity (simple securities, large issues) – and regulatory recognition 2. Enhance market diversity and competition Support to non-deposit taking specialized lenders Support to small FIs that have difficulties accessing capital market Example: US FHLBs and community banks / credit unions 7 Functions and Benefits, Ctd 3. A simple and secure investment vehicle for capital market investors Straight forward securities , simple to value No data bases , performance history or sophisticated valuation tools needed - unlike securitization Secured by the solidarity between users, capital requirements, collateralized refinance loans Simplicity + security+ size = better market liquidity 4. Promoter of the mortgage market soundness through its eligibility criteria : Lending quality requirements Capacity of primary lenders Solvency of primary lenders => a quasi supervisory impact 8 Functions and Benefits, Ctd 5. Short term Liquidity Provision and Countercyclical role: Temporary liquidity shortage during the life of long term loans. Ex: India NHB : long term loans to specialized institutions, but 2/3 year loans to commercial banks Support in stressed situations : next-to-last resort lenders Ex.: Cagamas in the 1998 crisis (market share up to nearly 40%) FHLBs during the 2007-2009 financial crisis France CRH during the 2007-2009 financial crisis : New Refi. Loans (€ bln) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2.6 3.0 7.7 8.3 7.4 5.1 NHB in 2009 /2013 (liquidity crunch due to the tightening of the monetary policy) 9 A counter-cyclical Instrument FHLBs Advances outstanding – Billions $ French CRH Refi. Loans outstanding – Billions € 10 Opposite to Securitization, which is a procyclical instrument - European markets example 11 II A FEW CASE STUDIES 12 Jordan JMRC - Presentation Created in 1966 Structure: capital held by banks and government agencies: the Central Bank (18%, the Governor being the chairman of the Board), Social Security Corporation, Housing agency (HUDCO) Regulation: not subject to banking prudential standards Operational model Refinance loans secured by portfolio Quarterly NPLs replacement Overcollateralization: 120% Specific advantages: JMRC funded loans: lighter provisioning obligations, 20% risk weight, excluded from the general 20% deposits limit set for real estate loans JMRC bonds: if held by banks, 20% risk weight, eligibility to liquidity ratio 13 Jordan JMRC - Activity: positive impact phase (multiplication of lenders), followed by a decline. Refinance loans: 150 mln JD (210 mln $) outstanding end 2012 Bonds maturity: 2/3 1 year, 1/3: 3 year New production Source – CBJ, HUD, JMRC, WB calculations 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 JMRC refinancing granted [JOD MM] JMRC bonds issued [JOD MM] Jordan mortgage originations [JOD MM] Jordan islamic HF originations [JOD MM] 14 Jordan JMRC – Issues and obstacles Banks‘ Loans-to-Deposits ratio = 55% Little regulatory incentive for banks to reduce A/L mismatches (long term = > 1 year for prudential purposes) Fast growing Islamic Housing finance (Ijarah), but no JMRC Islamic refinance product (4 Islamic banks, 1/3 of housing finance) Underdeveloped Capital market: 44 % GDP, 84% government bonds, 1 significant investor beside banks only (Social Security Corporation), short maturities, very recent Sukuk Law (Dec 2012) Some cumbersome procedures: Transfer tax exemption for mortgage deed loan by loan NPL removal from pledged portfolio (loan by loan manual de-registration and new entry in the land registries) 15 Algeria SRH Created in 1997 as part of a broad reform of the housing finance system ailed at liberalizing lending thanks to new instruments (mortgage insurance, demand side subsidies, developers’ guarantee fund) Structure: 30% government, 70% banks (all public) No prudential regulation Operational model: refinance loans with recourse, or loans purchase with no recourse ( but compulsory mortgage insurance if LTV > 60%) Activity: Difficulties to deploy the business model from scratch, despite SRH’s steady efforts to develop the primary market 2 bond issues, now repaid Mortgage refinancing activity quasi interrupted, focus on SME finance (refinancing of real estate leasing) 16 Algeria SRH – Issues and Obstacles High liquidity of the banking system: Little interest rate risk (internal cost of funds based adjustments) Structure of the housing finance market: Credit to the economy / deposits = 68% (2011) Liquid assets = 50% of banking assets The traditional, and still by far the main, housing lenders, CNEP Banque, is a huge savings collector, directly ( national savings bank) and indirectly (postal network) Predominance of state led and subsidized programs, funded by government or CNEP In the remaining compartments, large share of cash investment – reflecting in particular a large informal economy Very underdeveloped bond market 17 Case Study: Egypt EMRC Created in 2006, operational since 2008, as part of a broader set of reforms (titling system, promotion of specialized mortgage lenders, reform of the subsidy policy) Structure: majority ownership by using FIs, participation of the Central Bank (Dy Governor chair person of the Board) and IFC Regulation: capital adequacy requirements (leverage ratio: 9:1) oversight by the specialized mortgage lenders regulator (now integrated in the EFSA) Operational model: refinance loans with recourse, 120% overcollateralization Specific advantages: lowered provisioning requirements on refinance loans bonds: tax exempt and eligible to banks’ liquidity ratio 18 Egypt EMRC Activity : Activity and Issues about 15% of the mortgage stock Vast majority of refinance mortgages to low income households – operations combined with the new demand side subsidies scheme (national Housing Program, which requires fixed rate lending) 12 active lenders vs 3 initially But no bonds issued, a constraint on business expansion Issues and development obstacles Weaknesses in the market infrastructure despite progress made titling in particular Real estate price increase Mainly: Consequence of the January 25th Revolution and political turmoil since then – Bond market basically closed 19 III. 5 CONDITIONS OF SUCCESS 20 Contextual conditions Housing finance market : early stage, but existing Development has started Potential to develop further on a robust basis: Housing demand: effective, unsatisfied, growing Lending system: possibly small, but credible FIs, shortage of liquidity, ALM mismatches market infrastructure: reliable (mortgage law, land registration system) Adjustment to market structure – e.g. Sharia compliant refinancing product Capital market Functional infrastructure Effective institutional investor base No crowding out by government debt Availability of a reliable yield curve for at least medium term maturities 21 Features of refinanced portfolios (Cover Pool) Sound underwriting norms: a critical eligibility criteria NPLs treatment Fair value matching The market value of the pledged portfolios must be enough to repay the securities in case of execution of the lien and sale of the portfolios Prepayment of refinance loans: pricing based on the MRC’s cost of purchasing back its own securities Overcollateralization Rationale: possible deterioration between periodic replacement of NPLs possible market value discrepancies Limit: a type of secured lending that implies the subordination of the primary lenders’ ordinary creditors – A major issue between FHLBs and FDIC in the US. An acceptable level: 20% to 30% 22 Credit & Operational Relationship with Primary Lenders No credit risk transfer to the MRC : a common principle: Portfolio can be purchased (ex. Cagamas), but with recourse against the originator in case of delinquencies Supervision and compliance checks : a major component of the MRC’s activity Effectiveness of security arrangements Unambiguous legal treatment of pledged portfolios in case of a lender’s bankruptcy Pre-set arrangement of execution (e.g. back-up servicer) Operational simplicity Intermediation cost as limited as possible (lean monoline, wholesale institution) 23 Governance Capital structure Not primary a profit seeking entity – counter-exmpale of 2 FLBS of undue risk taking during the US market overheating Risks of government control to mitigate Cooperative structure: way to ensure the corporate goal while neutralizing the intermediation cost and strengthening the credit profile of the MRC Safeguards however required against 2 temptations: Exclusive club MRCs must be open to all lenders, incl. newcomers Predominance of main users in the decision making process refinancing decision to be made by the structure, not the Board cap on voting rights 24 Regulation & Supervision Regulatory oversight: Prudential norms and supervision needed to comfort investors’ confidence Low risk profile to be recognized through specific treatment investors’ prudential regimes of MRC’s securities : MRC’s prudential regime: Ordinary concentration risk limits generally inadequate Leverage ratio does not fit the standard MRC business model Higher market liquidity to be recognized Adjusted risk dispersion standards Lowered risk weights of for banks’ capital adequacy requirement Banks’ liquidity ratios – e.g. CRH’s bonds = tier I HQLA for the Basle III LCR Eligibility to Central Bank repos Bond issuance procedures: to facilitate frequent issues and their fungibilty (tap issues, shelf registration, master issuance memorandum) 25