Chapter Twelve Principles of Bond Valuations and Investments 1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2006 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. Bond: Players and Factors Indebted entity Investors Certificate (or bond) • Interest rate (coupon rate) • Coupon payment dates (semi-annually) • Maturity date 2 Fundaments of the Bond Valuation Process Rates of Return Current Yield Yield to Maturity Yield to Call Anticipated Realized Yield Reinvestment Assumption 3 Yield Principal (amount invested) Dollar amount of return on investment Percentage return (at an annual rate) 4 Current Yield Current bond price Annual coupon rate Ignores capital gains or losses. 5 Current Yield Calculation Current Yield = Annual_Dol lar_Intere st_Paid X100% Market_Pri ce Current Yield Calculation Example An example might be a 10% coupon rate $1000 par value bond selling for $950. The current yield would be: $100 / $950 = 10.53% 7 Yield to maturity (YTM) Return (coupon payments received) Maturity value Market price YTM equates the sum of the present value of the cash flows of the bond with its market price (IRR) 8 Risk vs. Expected Return Rate of return (high/Low) Degree of risk • Default risk • Bond ratings 9 Calculating Bond Prices and YTM Method 1 - using Tables t n Ct Pn V t n (1 i ) t 1 (1 i ) Present Value of Coupon Payments (Ct) (from Table 12-1 or Appendix D) Present value of Maturity Value (Pn) (from Table 12-2 or Appendix C) n = 20, i = 12 % n = 20, i = 12% $100 x 7.469 = $746.90 $1,000 x 0.104 = $104.00 Present value of coupon payments = $746.90 Present value of maturity value = $104.00 Value of bond = $850.90 Calculating Bond Prices – Method 2 – Using Equation Based on the principle of: Time value of money Present Value Future Value Interest rate --------- 11 Fundamentals of the Bond Valuation Process – The Value of a Bond n V t 1 Ct (1+i) t + Pn n (1+i) V = Market value or price of the bond n = Number of periods t = Each period C t = Coupon or interest payment for each period, t Pn= Par or maturity value i = interest rate in the market Yield to Maturity (YTM) Current market price Par value Coupon interest rate Time to maturity Assumption: all coupons are reinvested at the same (YTM) rate. 13 The Formula for Approximate Yield to Maturity Y Y Pn-V Ct n + V+ (0.4) P ++(0.6) n Approximare yield to maturity V = Market value or price of the bond n = Number of periods Ct = Coupon or interest payment for each period, t Pn = Par or maturity value Yield to Call Call date Yield to call value is determined by: • the coupon rate, • the length of time to the call date, and • the market price. 15 Yield to Call Example Assume a 20-year bond was initially issued at 11.5% interest rate, and after two years, rates have dropped. Let us assume the bond is currently selling for $1,180, and the yield to maturity on the bond is 9.48%. However, the investor who purchases the bond for $1,180 may not be able to hold the bond for the remaining 18 years because the issue can be called. Under theses circumstances, yield to maturity may not be the appropriate measure of return over the expected holding period. 16 Yield to Call Calculation – Example cont. In the present case, we assume the bond can be called at $1,090 five years after issue. Thus, the investor who buys the bond two years after issue can have his bond called back after three more years at $1,090. To compute yield to call, we determine the approximate interest rate that will equate a $1,180 investment today with $115 (11.5%) per year for the next three years plus a payoff or call price value of $1,090 at the end of three years. 17 Yield to Call Calculation An Alternative Method Click on the Bonds icon Y = yield to maturity expressed in % R = coupon rate (or i) P = price of the bond. M = the number of years to Call date. The relation is: M P R Y i 1 100 i 1 100 Y M 1 100 The Formula for Approximate Anticipated Realized Yield = Coupon payment Yr = Pr V Ct nr (0.6)V (0.4) Pr = Realized price V = Market price Yr = Anticipated realized yield Ct = Coupon payment Pr = Realized price V = Market price nr = Number of periods to realization Figure 12-1 Term Structure of Interest Rates Yield Yield Normal a b Maturity Maturity Yield Yield Inverted c Maturity d Maturity 20 Investment Strategy: InterestRate Considerations Bond-Pricing Rules Example of Interest-Rate Change Deep Discount verses Par Bonds Yield Spread Considerations 21 Investment Strategy: Interest-Rate Considerations (7 rules) Bond Pricing Rules • 1. Bond prices and interest rates are inversely related. • 2. Prices of long-term bonds are more sensitive to a change in yields to maturity than short-term bonds. • 3. Bond price sensitivity increases at a decreasing rate as maturity increases. 22 Investment Strategy: Interest-Rate Considerations (cont.) • 4. Bond prices are more sensitive to a decline in market YTM than to a rise in YTM. • 5. Prices of low-coupon bonds are more sensitive to a change in YTM than high coupon bonds. 23 Investment Strategy: Interest-Rate Considerations (cont.) • 6. Bond prices are more sensitive when YTM is low than when YTM is high. • 7. Margin trading magnifies profits and losses of bond investments by a factor of 1/(margin requirement). 24 Deep Discount versus Par Bonds Significant discount from par value Coupon rate significantly less than the prevailing rates of fixed-income securities with similar risk profiles 25 Bond Swaps Investor sells one bond and uses the proceeds to purchase another bond, often at the same price. Investors engage in bond swaps • to take a tax loss by selling one bond at a loss but then preserve their investment by simultaneously buying a similar bond. • to obtain a higher yield and return on their bond investments. 26 Computing Bond Yields Yield Measure Purpose Nominal Yield Current yield Measures the coupon rate Measures current income rate Promised yield to maturity Promised yield to call Measures expected rate of return for bond held to maturity Measures expected rate of return for bond held to first call date Realized (horizon) yield Measures expected rate of return for a bond likely to be sold prior to maturity. 27 A sample of the numerous useful bond websites – click on the links New York Stock Exchange U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Terms Used in Bond Calculators 28 Click on the following hyperlinks 1. Treasury Direct 2. Public debt 3. Online Financial Tutorial 29