The Past as Prologue:
Partisanship and Competition
in Recent Elections
Latinos and the 2008 Elections
Lecture 7
October 21, 2008
Analytical Essay:
Due Date – October 28
Assignment available on the
website if you have misplaced
your copy
Questions to Consider for
This Week’s Readings
We’ll discuss Thursday
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Why don’t eligible Latinos naturalize?
Were citizenship-eligible Latinos to
naturalize, how would they change the Latino
vote (think in terms of impact and in terms
of issues)?
What issues shape Latino vote choice in
2008?
Broader Historical Themes
in the 2008 Election
1.
2.
Critical elections in American political
history (realignment)
The legacies of the 2000 and 2004
elections as foundation for 2008
U.S. Party Balance and
Realignment

Realignment – Period when pattern of group
support for parties shifts in a significant and lasting
manner

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Theory somewhat discredited
Useful to explain patterns of party dominance 1830s1960s
Exact points of change somewhat disputed
Debate about whether realignment model applies in
contemporary politics


Our era defined by routinely divided government –
presidency and Congress controlled by different parties
2008 may (temporarily) change that pattern
Partisan Balance, Presidential
Elections 1968-2004
65
60
55
50
45
40
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
35
Republican
Democrat
Current Era Begins in 1968

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If the model holds, due for a new
realignment
What could that mean?

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Emergence of a new party (e.g. 1860)
One party replacing a period of divided
government (1828, 1896)
One regularly dominant party replacing the
previously dominant party (1932)
Divided government replacing period of one
party dominance (1968)
Turning Point Usually a Period
of Small Changes Rather Than
a Specific Election
So, patterns of change in recent
elections and things to watch for in
2008 results
The More Immediate
Prologue (1)

Disputed outcome of the 2000 race

Viewing of CNN Election 2000: 36 Days that Gripped the
Nation

Watch for the following 2000 themes relevant to
2008

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Ballot design and voting technologies
Does “every vote count?”

Bush v. Gore (new role of courts)

Better preparation for legal challenges 2008 (and beyond)
Renewed attention to voter eligibility
The Electoral College
2000 Palm Beach County
Butterfly Ballot