Realignments
The Ultimate Change in Partisanship
Two-Party
System in
American History
We often Switch Party Loyalty
• Congressional Elections
• Weaker partisan ties
• Poor challengers
• These can result in a
landslide for one party
How To Wreck a Party
REALIGNMENTS
How to Wreck a Movie
• First, how to wreck a
movie
• Strange Brew 1983
What is a Realignment
• A Durable shift in voting Patterns
• The New Party Kills the Old
• Majority Parties become minorities
Who Switches in a Realignment
• Hard Cores do not switch
• Independents do
• New Voters
• Weak partisans become
strong Partisans
What Causes a Realignment
• Economic or social crisis
• Failure of the party to
interpret change
• A changed electorate
The Policy Implications
• A mandate for change
• Major New Policies
• Continued success
Options for the Losers
• Ignore the issue
• Try to absorb it
• Change
Good Times
A THEORY OF CRITICAL ELECTIONS
Kinds of Realignments
• Secular Realignments- happen over time
• Regional Realignments
• Critical Elections
Types of Election
Majority Party
VICTORY
same
change
Maintaining
Converting
Defeat
Deviating
Realigning
A Realigning Election
• The Actual Critical Election
– 1860
– 1896
– 1930
• High Intensity
• High Turnout
A Maintaining Election
• A boring election
• The party in power remains in power
• 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960
Deviating Election
• The Out party does well
• No shift in long term
partisanship
• Caused by short-term
factors
• 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956
Converting Election
• The out party is gaining
seats
• The precursor to a
realignment
• The majority party
keeps control.
The New Deal
THE LAST REALIGNMENT
The New Deal Realignment
• The GOP was the majority party from 18961932
• The Democrats Replaced the GOP and kept
effective power from 1932-1968
How FDR Did it
• Kept the South
• Inroads into the North
• Urban Party
– Catholics
– Poor
– Unions
Policy differences
• Focused on Domestic Economic Issues
• Expansion of Government
• Clear Policy differences between the parties
• The GOP could not adopt this message or
expand its base
The End of the New Deal
• Problems are solved
• New Issues Emerge
• The Electorate Changes
How it Happens
• New Deal Democrats Die
• Catholics become
assimilated economically
• New voters are less
partisan
• Conflict between working
class and African
Americans
The real end of the new deal realignment
THE CASE OF THE SOUTH
The South in historical context
• Solidly Democratic from 1870- 1968
• The key to Democratic strength because of
opportunity costs
• The shift of the South to the GOP marks the
end of the New Deal Realignment
How the South Shifted
• First in Presidential
elections (1948, 1964,
1968)
• Then State-wide offices
• Southern Democrats Die
and are replaced by
Republicans
Why the South Shifted
• Race
• Economics
• Demographics
THE CURRENT PARTY ALIGNMENT
The Parties have been Competitive
Republicans
• President- 72, 80, 84, 88
2000, 2004 (24 years)
Democrats
• President- 76, 92, 96, 2008
(16 years)
• Senate- 1981-1986, 19952006 (18 years)
• Senate- 1973-1980, 19891994, 2007-2013 (20 years)
• House- 1995-2006, 20112013- 14 years
• House- 1972-1994, 20072010 (26 years)
Dealignment
• A weakening of partisan
ties
• Partisans, however,
have become more
extreme (as has
congress)
• A new realignment
would require the
conversion of
independents