Changes in the Global Trade Environment
Subtitle:
Changes in the Global Trade Environment
Presenter:
Sithembiso Mtanga
Date:
24 January 2013
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Highlights in Recent Global
Developments
 Overall trade grew in 2011 by 5.0%, a
drastic fall from a 13.8% growth in 2010
 There has been a shift of Global Growth
from Developed to Developing
Economies
 There is an increasing share of
Emerging Markets in Global Trade and
Investment
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Growth in World Exports
35
17,000
Source: IMF IFS and World Bank Statistics
15,000
25
13,000
20
11,000
15
9,000
10
7,000
5
0
5,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
World Exports, F.O.B.


2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Weighted Average Applied Tariff Rate [World]
World Exports grew by over 9% annually over the past 15
years
The World Weighted Average Applied Tariff Rate fell from
2010
W. Exports, US$ Dollars
App. Tariff Rate Percentage (%)
30
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Growth in Volume of Goods Trade and GDP
(Annual % Change)
Source: IMF IFS

World GDP and Trade grew on average by 3.4% and 5.7%
respectively since 1980
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Global Trade Trends: Developed vs
Developing Economies
15
Volume of exports of goods and services:
Percent change
Percentage (%)
10
5
0
-5
-10
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-15
800
Current account balance: U.S. dollars (Billions)
600
400
US$ Billions
• Before the crisis developed
economies exhibited a
worsening current account
deficits whereas emerging
markets and developing
economies were experiencing
increases in the current account
surplus
• The share of developing
economies in world total trade
rose to 47% on the export side
and 42% on the import side in
2011, the highest levels ever
recorded since 1948.
200
0
-200
-400
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
-600
Source: IMF IFS
Developed economies
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Goods Trade by Region 2011
Source: WTO Secretariat
World Exports: Top Products at
HS2 (2011) – US$ billion
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Rank
Product
code
Product label
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ave. Share
2007-2011
Ave Annual
Growth Rate
2007-2011
1
Total
Exports
'27
Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc
1 985
2 870
1 791
2 327
2 899
16%
5.6%
2
'85
Electrical, electronic equipment
1 830
1 942
1 625
1 997
2 153
13%
3.6%
3
'84
Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc
1 824
1 981
1 532
1 827
2 071
12%
1.7%
4
'87
Vehicles other than railway, tramway
1 206
1 261
859
1 093
1 272
8%
-0.4%
5
'39
Plastics and articles thereof
453
483
393
493
566
3%
4.7%
6
'71
290
334
321
422
540
3%
15.9%
7
'90
401
440
398
477
530
3%
6.6%
8
'72
Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc
Optical, photo, technical, medical, etc
apparatus
Iron and steel
432
526
277
389
467
3%
-1.4%
9
'30
Pharmaceutical products
347
399
422
445
465
3%
7.2%
10
'29
Organic chemicals
349
371
313
377
455
2%
5.6%
11
'73
Articles of iron or steel
261
312
228
249
296
2%
0.2%
12
'99
Commodities not elsewhere specified
244
346
204
223
279
2%
-1.7%
13
'26
Ores, slag and ash
122
149
119
196
268
1%
20.2%
14
'88
Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof
199
213
214
223
249
1%
5.1%
15
'40
142
158
126
169
223
1%
10.2%
16
'61
174
181
160
181
210
1%
3.9%
17
'62
172
184
158
170
201
1%
2.4%
18
'94
165
180
147
169
192
1%
2.4%
19
'48
169
180
153
171
187
1%
1.4%
20
'74
Rubber and articles thereof
Articles of apparel, accessories, knit or
crochet
Articles of apparel, accessories, not knit or
crochet
Furniture, lighting, signs, prefabricated
buildings
Paper and paperboard, articles of pulp,
paper and board
Copper and articles thereof
154
151
106
161
186
1%
4.5%
All products
13 920
16 077
12 394
15 114
17 579
100%
4.1%
Source: UNComtrade and Own Calculations
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Commercial Services Trade
by Region - 2011
Source: WTO Secretariat
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World leading exporters and importers of Goods Trade,
2011 (US$ Billion)
Source: WTO Secretariat
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Global Key Issues – Going
Forward









At 5.0%, trade growth slows in 2011 following 13.8% rebound in 2010
Further slowing to 3.7% in 2012, below the 5.4% 20-year average (WTO)
Fragile and uncertain global economy remains, with enhanced downside risk
Shocks held back trade last year: European debt crisis, Japanese tsunami,
Thai floods,
Disasters hit supply chains and production in Japan, China and elsewhere.
Most recently Hurricane Sandy in the US
EU may already be in recession as global output growth eases.
Oil supply disruption in Libya cut African export growth by 8%
Growth in manufactured goods trade is currently slowing, trade in
automotive products fell to single digits and electronics trade declined.
Arab spring uprisings also hit African services exports due to sharp
declines in Egypt, Tunisia.
Changes in the Global Trade
Environment
Subtitle:
Changes in South Africa’s
Trade Environment
Presenter:
Sithembiso Mtanga
Date:
24 January 2013
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2.5%
SA Share of World Exports
Declining
SA Exports to the World
2.0%
120
SA Share of World Exports
100
80
60
1.0%
40
0.5%
0.0%
20
0
The share of SA’s Exports in total world exports has
decline from 2% in 1948 to 0.5% in 2011
Source: IMF IFS
US dollars billions
1.5%
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World market share decreasing
SOUTH AFRICAN EXPORTS - WORLD MARKET SHARE INDEX
(1994= 100)
105
100
95
90
85
80
Value
Volume
75
70
65
60
Source: OECD Financial statistics database
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South Africa’s trade flows to the world
SA TRADE FLOWS TO THE WORLD (Rbn)
2007
Total Imports
Total Exports
Trade balance
562.56
474.44
-88.12
2008
728.86
637.78
-91.07
2009
542.39
507.67
-34.71
2010
586.04
580.08
-5.97
2011
726.23
691.56
-34.67
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South African trade with the world: percentage growth rate
2002-2006
2007-2011
Total Exports
9.07%
6.81%
Total Imports
14.55%
2.97%
Note: Growth rates have been calculated on the Rand Values
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SA TRADE WITH THE WORLD: TOP 10 PRODUCTS (HS2, 2011)
Products
H71: Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, etc
H26: Ores, slag and ash
H27: Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc
H72: Iron and steel
H87: Vehicles other than railway, tramway
H84: Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc
H76: Aluminium and articles thereof
H08: Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons
H28: Inorganic chemicals, precious metal
compound, isotopes
H85: Electrical, electronic equipment
Total Exports (Rbn)
% of Total Exports
Total Imports (Rbn)
% of Total Imports
178.13
99.07
25.76%
14.33%
153.87
109.52
21.19%
15.08%
68.87
58.56
53.04
9.96%
8.47%
7.67%
68.04
65.94
43.87
9.37%
9.08%
6.04%
42.72
16.50
6.18%
2.39%
H39: Plastics and articles thereof
17.96
17.49
2.47%
2.41%
16.50
2.39%
H30: Pharmaceutical products
15.96
2.20%
11.46
10.92
1.66%
1.58%
H88: Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof
14.00
12.45
1.93%
1.71%
Products
H27: Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc
H84: Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, etc
H85: Electrical, electronic equipment
H87: Vehicles other than railway, tramway
H98: Special classifications provisions
H90: Optical, photo, technical, medical, etc
apparatus
H29: Organic chemicals
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P THREE NON-MINERAL EXPORTS FROM
AND IMPORTS TO SA FROM REGIONS
(HS4, 2011)
EXPORTS
Products
SADC
H8704: Motor vehicles for the transport of
goods
H7308: Structures, parts of structures of iron
or steel, nes
H8474: Machinery to sort, screen, wash, etc
mineral products
H8407: Spark-ignition internal combustion
engines
S. AMERICA
NAFTA
1.13
3.7%
1.50
2.0% H7408: Copper wire
0.74
2.4%
1.35
1.8% H5201: Cotton, not carded or combed
0.64
2.1%
0.67
H2304: Soya-bean oil-cake and other solid
6.6% residues
2.61
11.8%
1.64
7.4%
1.56
7.1%
0.53
H8704: Motor vehicles for the transport of
5.2% goods
H7202: Ferro-alloys
4.65
H7601: Unwrought aluminium
H8703: Motor vehicles for transport of
persons (except buses)
H7204: Ferrous waste or scrap, ingots or iron
or steel
H2809: Diphosphorus pentaoxide, phosphoric
acids
H7601: Unwrought aluminium
H0805: Citrus fruit, fresh or dried
MIDDLE EAST H2601: Iron ores and concentrates, roasted
iron pyrites
H7208: Hot-rolled products, iron/steel,
width>600mm, not clad
H8421: Liquid, gas centrifuges, filtering,
purifying machines
EU
3.04
0.62
H1005: Maize (corn)
H7202: Ferro-alloys
H8703: Motor vehicles for transport of
persons (except buses)
Value (Rbn) Share
H7403: Refined copper and copper alloys,
4.1% unwrought
H3902: Polymers of propylene, other olefins
in primary forms
H7202: Ferro-alloys
H7202: Ferro-alloys
S.C. ASIA
Products
H0207: Meat, edible offal of domestic
6.2% poultry
H8421: Liquid, gas centrifuges, filtering,
purifying machines
E. ASIA
IMPORTS
Value (Rbn) Share
2.82
2.29
16.51
4.42
7%
H8802: Aircraft, spacecraft, satellites
6.49
9.4%
4%
H8703: Motor vehicles for transport of
persons (except buses)
3.73
5.4%
3%
H8517: Electric apparatus for line telephony,
telegraphy
2.79
4.0%
H8703: Motor vehicles for transport of
9.4% persons (except buses)
10.82
6.6%
H8517: Electric apparatus for line telephony,
2.5% telegraphy
10.42
6.3%
H8471: Automatic data processing machines
4.01
2.19
1.65
2.3% (computers)
9.12
5.5%
8%
H8703: Motor vehicles for transport of
persons (except buses)
3.60
6.1%
6%
H3004: Medicaments, therapeutic,
prophylactic use, in dosage
1.85
3.2%
0.69
H8517: Electric apparatus for line telephony,
2.5% telegraphy
1.08
1.8%
1.44
H3102: Mineral or chemical fertilizers,
6.8% nitrogenous
2.16
3.7%
0.52
H3901: Polymers of ethylene, in primary
2.5% forms
1.10
1.9%
0.50
2.4% H2901: Acyclic hydrocarbons
0.99
1.7%
16.30
H3004: Medicaments, therapeutic,
10.7% prophylactic use, in dosage
7.82
3.5%
10.95
H8517: Electric apparatus for line telephony,
7.2% telegraphy
7.62
3.4%
8.45
H8708: Parts and accessories for motor
5.5% vehicles
5.49
2.5%
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TOP 10 EXPORT MARKETS & IMPORT
SOURCES (2011), ALL PRODUCTS
Country
China
United States
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
India
Netherlands
Switzerland
Republic of Korea
Mozambique
Total
EXPORTS
Value (Rbn)
85.30
59.63
55.29
43.17
28.68
24.33
21.50
21.37
17.28
17.18
373.75
Share
12.3%
8.6%
8.0%
6.2%
4.1%
3.5%
3.1%
3.1%
2.5%
2.5%
54.0%
Country
China
Germany
United States
Japan
Saudi Arabia
India
United Kingdom
Iran
Nigeria
Italy
Total
IMPORTS
Value (Rbn)
103.13
77.26
58.39
34.53
32.30
29.19
29.14
26.70
22.66
19.55
432.87
Share
14.2%
10.6%
8.0%
4.8%
4.4%
4.0%
4.0%
3.7%
3.1%
2.7%
59.6%
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SA TRADE BY REGION (Rbn)
Region
2007
2008
2009
2010
Exports
Imports
Exports
Imports
Exports
Imports
Exports
European Union
145.90
189.62
188.03
228.09
122.34
174.50
137.37
Eastern Asia
94.61
120.71
128.37
146.71
106.06
115.53
NAFTA
58.00
50.43
70.39
68.91
45.23
SADC
41.95
30.00
67.78
42.37
Middle East
15.93
44.56
22.25
South-eastern Asia
10.35
28.91
South America
5.87
Rest of Africa
Rest of the World
2011
Imports
Exports
Imports
188.28
152.31
222.79
133.69
136.67
175.86
165.17
48.29
56.13
49.99
67.84
68.77
57.53
24.24
60.76
27.29
73.36
30.81
79.25
16.70
43.58
18.36
40.46
21.11
58.36
16.69
39.12
14.14
33.20
16.29
37.09
19.47
45.12
23.40
8.06
26.89
4.83
20.13
8.30
18.24
10.07
22.14
22.28
14.36
31.03
19.84
28.43
19.16
26.05
18.62
29.77
24.98
79.56
60.56
105.17
77.68
112.42
63.77
123.14
69.41
141.77
88.10
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Share of SA Exports according to
Broad Classification
Share of SA Exports
Broad Classification
1994
2000
2006
2011
Agriculture and Forestry
7.8%
5.9%
4.8%
5.4%
Basic Processing
27.9%
32.2%
31.9%
26.5%
Mining
57.3%
45.6%
42.9%
50.8%
Advanced Manufacturing
7.0%
16.3%
20.4%
17.3%
Source: Quantec International Trade Database and own calculations
• Mining continues to feature strongly in SA exports (oscillating between 42% and
58% of SA’s total exports
• The share of Manufacturing exports in SA’s total exports has increased since
1994 whilst Agriculture has seen a decline
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Millions
Exports per sector increase
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
Intermediate goods
Raw materials
Consumer goods
Capital goods
$20
$10
$0
Source: OECD (2013)
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SA Exports by Province in
2008 & 2011
2008
2011
Source: Quantec Provincial Trade Database and own calculations
SA trade is highly concentrated in Gauteng. Ranked 2nd and 3rd are
KZN and the Western Cape.
Gauteng has grown market share while most of the other provinces
have lost market share
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Trading Across Borders: Costs & Time
Delays – BRICs and South Africa
(2012)
Country
Documents to
Cost to export Documents to
Cost to import
Time to export
Time to
Rank
export
(US$ per
import
(US$ per
(days)
import (days)
(number)
container)
(number)
container)
Brazil
123
7
13
2,215
8
17
2,275
Russia
162
8
21
2,820
11
36
2,920
India
127
9
16
1,120
11
20
1,200
China
68
8
21
580
5
24
615
South Africa
115
6
16
1,620
7
23
1,940
185
Source: World Bank Doing Business Survey
http://www.doingbusiness.org/ExploreTopics/TradingAcrossBorders/ [Accessed 16 November 2012]
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Source: WTO
Regional Trade
Agreements for
BRICs & South
Africa
 China & India
have concluded
a large number
of FTAs
 Asian
economies are
using trade
agreements to
reduce
regional
barriers to
trade and
Revealed Comparative
Advantage
Subtitle:
RCA for South Africa and per Province
on a HS-6 digit Level
Presenter: Derick Deale
Date:
24 January 2013
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Revealed Comparative
Advantage
 RCA
 Comparative advantage is a difficult theoretical concept
 It is also difficult to determine using empirical analyses
 We use Revealed Comparative Advantage
 Balassa’s RCA index
 Most widely used index
 Transformed to symmetric RCA index
 Positive Value = Comparative Advantage
 Negative Value = Comparative Disadvantage
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RCA South Africa 2011
 Top 10 easily ranked.
Description
RSA - 2007
RSA - 2008
RSA - 2009
RSA - 2010
RSA - 2011
H711039: Rhodium in semi-manufactured
forms
H261790: Ores and concentrates nes
0.9880
0.9808
0.9878
0.9202
0.9882
0.9857
0.9875
0.9847
0.9869
0.9857
H711019: Platinum in semi-manufactured
forms
0.9778
0.9794
0.9796
0.9815
0.9825
H261590: Niobium, tantalum and vanadium
ores and concentrates
H261000: Chromium ores and concentrates
0.9680
0.9799
0.9853
0.9785
0.9845
0.9775
0.9810
0.9777
0.9803
0.9775
H710590: Dust of precious, semi-precious
stones except diamonds
H261400: Titanium ores and concentrates
0.8600
0.9812
0.9044
0.9816
0.8214
0.9839
0.9765
0.9778
0.9752
0.9740
H293991: Vegetable alkaloids, natural or
reproduced by synthesis, and their salts,
ethers, esters and other derivatives - other
H320120: Wattle tanning extract
0.9811
0.9861
0.9781
0.9723
0.9714
0.9733
0.9699
0.9741
0.9734
0.9732
H750610: Plates, sheet, strip and foil, nickel,
not alloyed
0.9754
0.9756
0.9593
0.9766
0.9729
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RCA over time
RCA for Platinum in semimanufactured forms
0.983
RCA for Niobium, tantalum and
vanadium ores and concentrates
0.99
0.982
0.985
0.981
0.98
0.98
0.975
0.979
0.97
0.978
0.965
0.977
0.96
0.976
0.955
0.975
RSA - 2007
RSA - 2007 RSA - 2008 RSA - 2009 RSA - 2010 RSA - 2011
0.9805
0.98
RSA - 2008
RSA - 2009
RSA - 2010
RSA - 2011
RCA for Chromium ores and
concentrates
0.9795
0.979
0.9785
0.978
0.9775
0.977
0.9765
0.976
RSA - 2007 RSA - 2008 RSA - 2009 RSA - 2010 RSA - 2011
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Products with high RCA
 High RCA can be further investigated
using Trademap.org
 Questions:




What is the market share?
To who are you selling?
Who are your competitors?
What has happened over time?
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Example: Manufactured
product
H760820: Tubes and pipe, aluminium alloy
0.7762
0.7551
0.7544
0.8031
 High RCA
 No large irregular spikes
0.8400
0.8200
0.8000
0.7800
0.7600
0.7400
0.7200
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.8182
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6.2 % of global market share
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Largest market Germany
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5 Largest markets over time
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German Imports (Competition)
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5 Largest exporters to
Germany
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Demonstration: Excel
 Excel file available on website
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Areas of possible
Comparative Advantage
 Concept of Proximity:
 If South Africa is, for example, exporting
apples,
 and we know that apples and pears require
similar factor conditions,
 then why is it then that South Africa is not
exporting pears as well as apples?
Product Space
 Product Space investigates the
proximity of similar products
 T shirts and fish products are
dissimilar,
 T shirts and dresses are similar
however
 Node size: market share of world
 Clusters: similar products
Why do these similarities matter?
• Imagine a forest
• If the forest is dense, a monkey
can easily swing from one branch
to another
• Imagine a desert
• With not many trees the monkey
will battle to get around
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RCA: Gained
1994
2010
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Motor vehicles and aeroplanes
1994
1999
2010
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Mining Sector
1994
1999
2010
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Fishing and fish products
1994
1999
2010
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Garments
1994
1999
2010
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Critical Observations
 South Africa has comparative
advantage in a certain products
 How can we expand this to similar
products within the cluster
 Apples and Pears example
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Introduction to the Gravity
Model
 Much like Newton’s theory of gravity, there are two
components that drive attraction:
 Size of the two objects
 Distance between them
 In economics, we don’t have objects, we have countries
and instead of attraction, we have trade.
 Thus larger countries will trade more, and those that are closer
will trade more will each other.
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What was included in our
model

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Sectors identified by the
Gravity Model
Partnername
Germany
United States
United Kingdom
China
India
United States
Mozambique
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
Saudi Arabia
Netherlands
Mexico
China
France
World Trade value (1000usd)
Product description
Trade Gap
3.392 Other Chemicals (Extraction of crude petroleum
7135.405
and n)
55.598 Manufacture of basic chemicals
4027.52
0.085 Other Chemicals (Extraction of crude petroleum
2966.146
and n)
121.473 Growing of crops; market gardening;
2961.87
6.554 Manufacture of basic chemicals
2717.546
666.354 Growing of crops; market gardening;
2716.617
5.156 Production, collection and distribu
2429.736
55.095 Manufacture of basic chemicals
2275.284
112.836 Growing of crops; market gardening;
2110.95
20.868 Growing of crops; market gardening;
2077.19
0.083 Other Chemicals (Extraction of crude petroleum
2022.159
and n)
0.028 Other Chemicals (Extraction of crude petroleum
1947.461
and n)
48.761 Production, processing and preserva
1919.499
87.273 Manufacture of medical appliances a
1686.979
2.257 Growing of crops; market gardening;
1608.673
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Gaps with African
Markets
Partnername World Trade value (1000usd) Product description
Frequency Trade Gap
Mozambique
5.156 Production, collection and distribu
284 2429.736
Zimbabwe
70.223 Manufacture of beverages
7641 991.2318
Nigeria
101.375 Manufacture of basic chemicals
9663 798.3651
Mozambique
148.613 Manufacture of other food products
9713 750.2119
Nigeria
34.709 Growing of crops; market gardening;
10338 676.2432
Zimbabwe
244.233 Manufacture of other food products
9713 663.1317
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Interesting Sectors
Partnername
World Trade
Product
value description
(1000usd)
FrequencyTrade Gap
Mozambique
5.156 Production, collection and distribu
284 2429.736
Japan
51.548 Manufacture of general purpose mach
22034 1600.535
Saudi Arabia
156.792 Manufacture of motor vehicles
6887 1599.419
Brazil
2081.988 Production, processing and preserva
8113 1517.755
Brazil
42.218 Growing of crops; market gardening;
10338 1377.434
China
243.079 Manufacture of aircraft and spacecr
6371 1273.625
Zimbabwe
70.223 Manufacture of beverages
7641 991.2318
Canada
144.54 Growing of crops; market gardening;
10338 949.113
United Kingdom
8.841 Manufacture of other food products
9713 901.9773
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Critical Observations
 From our regression coefficients we note:
 Reduction in documents (domestically and abroad) to export will
increase trade.
 Reduction in domestic and foreign container costs will boost
trade
 Regarding gaps:
 Demand side identification.
 Must be matched with supply side identification to be meaningful
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