CHAPTER TWENTY-TWO PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT AND PRESENTATION Practical Investment Management Robert A. Strong Outline Relating Risk and Return Risk, Return, and Utility Arithmetic vs. Geometric Averages Traditional Performance Measures The Capital Market Line The Security Market Line Performance Measurement AIMR-Required Calculations Recommended Calculations South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 2 Outline Performance Presentation Standards Composite Results International Portfolios Leverage and Derivatives South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 3 Risk, Return, and Utility Proper performance evaluation should recognize both the return and the riskiness of the investment. For most investors, the expected utility of an investment is a positive function of the expected return of the investment and a negative function of the variance of these returns : E(U) = f [ E(R), - 2 ] Other relevant risk measures may include beta (for a stock portfolio) or duration (for a fixed income portfolio). South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 4 Arithmetic vs. Geometric Averages Suppose an initial investment of $100 falls by 50% in one period, and rises by 50% in the following period. What is the average return? The proper measure of average return over time with investments is the geometric mean 1 return : n n xGM Ri i 1 the return relative where R i = in period i To get around the problem of negative returns, returns are transformed into return relatives by adding 1.0 to them. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 5 Traditional Performance Measures The Sharpe measure relates return to total risk. It can be used effectively with a portfolio where unsystematic risk has been diversified away. Sharpe measure Ri Rf i where Ri = arithmetic mean return of security i Rf = risk free rate i = standard deviation of returns on security i South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 6 Traditional Performance Measures Insert Table 22-2 here. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 7 Traditional Performance Measures The Treynor measure relates return to systematic risk, as measured by the security (or portfolio) beta. It is an appropriate measure for both single securities as well as for portfolios. Treynor measure South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 Ri R f i 22 - 8 Traditional Performance Measures Insert Table 22-3 here. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 9 Traditional Performance Measures The Jensen measure stems directly from the implications of the capital asset pricing model as estimated by the market model. Ri Rf i i Rmarket Rf or i Ri Rf i R market Rf According to finance theory, i should be zero. So, a positive alpha that is statistically different from zero indicates an aboveaverage performance, and vice versa. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 10 mean return Traditional Performance Measures standard deviation The Sharpe performance measure can be interpreted as the slope of a line relating the security’s return with its risk. The line extending from the riskfree rate through the market portfolio on the efficient frontier is the capital market line. Securities plotted above the capital market line show better-than-expected performance, and vice versa. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 11 Traditional Performance Measures Insert Figure 22-1 here. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 12 mean return Traditional Performance Measures beta It is also possible to plot the returns of securities against their levels of systematic risk, or beta. The standard of comparison in this case is the security market line. This line extends from the riskfree rate through the point corresponding to the return associated with a beta of 1.0. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 13 Traditional Performance Measures Insert Figure 22-2 here. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 14 Performance Measurement Compliance with AIMR (Association for Investment Management and Research) Performance Presentation Standards is rapidly becoming a nonoptional practice in the money management business. In order to be compliant with AIMR standards, certain information must be presented. Certain practices are recommended by AIMR too, though not required. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 15 AIMR-Required Calculations Total return, including realized and unrealized gains and losses plus income, is required. Total return Valueending Valuebeginning Income Valuebeginning Accrual accounting : Bonds accrue interest for each day that they are held, and such income is required to be calculated on an accrual basis. Earned dividends can be accrued too, though they are mostly accounted for on a cash basis. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 16 AIMR-Required Calculations Insert Table 22-5 here. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 17 AIMR-Required Calculations Time-weighted rate of return : Returns should be measured with recognition of both the timing of the cash flows and their size. There are two ways of achieving this. The daily valuation method calculates the exact time-weighted rate of return. Though cumbersome, it is the preferred method. The modified BAI method approximates the internal rate of return for the investment over the period in question. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 18 Daily Valuation Method n Rdaily Si 1 where Si MVEi i 1 MVBi MVEi market value of the portfolio at the end of period i before any cash flows in period i but including accrued income the period MVBi market value of the portfolio at the beginning of period i , including any cash flows at the end of the previous subperiod and including accrued income South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 19 Modified BAI Method n MVE Fi 1 RWi i 1 where Fi the sum of the cash flows during the period (with opposite signs for inflows and outflows) MVE market value at the end of the period, including accrued income F0 market value at the start of the period CD Di Wi CD CD total number of days in the period Di number of days since the beginning of the period in which cash flow Fi occurred South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 20 AIMR-Required Calculations Insert Table 22-8 here. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 21 Recommended Calculations Using the trade date : AIMR recommends that all calculations be done on the basis of the trade date rather than the settlement date. Prior to fees : AIMR also recommends that investment results be presented before the deduction of management fees unless it would violate SEC advertising rules. Before taxes : Performance should also generally be presented on a before-tax basis. If not, the tax rate used in the calculations must be disclosed. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 22 Performance Presentation Standards : Composite Results Most investment management firms manage many accounts. A composite measure can be misleading if calculated inappropriately. Include all portfolios : All portfolios under measurement must be included in at least one composite. It is permissable to include a nonfee portfolio in a composite provided that such inclusion is disclosed. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 23 Composite Results Survivor bias : AIMR standards require that portfolios no longer under management must be included in a composite for the period in which they were in operation. Treatment of convertibles : Convertible securities should be treated as equity instruments unless there is a clearly stated agreement to treat them differently. At least a 10-year presentation of annual returns is required. A 20-year disclosure is preferred if the data is available. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 24 Performance Presentation Standards International portfolios : AIMR standards require disclosure on whether returns are net or gross of withholding taxes on dividends, interest, or capital gains. Country carve-outs from an international composite are not permitted unless the carveout is actually managed as a separate portfolio. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 25 Performance Presentation Standards Leverage and derivatives : Their use and extent must be disclosed. The required information includes (1) a description of the use of the derivatives, (2) the amounts used, (3) the frequency of their use, and (4) a discussion of their characteristics. South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 26 Review Relating Risk and Return Risk, Return, and Utility Arithmetic vs. Geometric Averages Traditional Performance Measures The Capital Market Line The Security Market Line Performance Measurement AIMR-Required Calculations Recommended Calculations South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 27 Review Performance Presentation Standards Composite Results International Portfolios Leverage and Derivatives South-Western / Thomson Learning © 2004 22 - 28