SIO-/CHEM-87: UNDERSTANDING AND PROTECTING THE PLANET V. Ramanathan, K. Prather and A. Evan University of California at San Diego January to March 2015 1 pm to 2.20 pm at NH 101 Course Schedule 1-14-2015 Environmental Issues Threatening Sustainability Ramanathan 1-21-2015 Climate Change Ramanathan 1-28-2015 Air Pollution, Aerosols & Climate Change Prather 2-05-2015 The Science of Air Pollution & climate Change Prather 2-12-2015 Land Use Changes, Desertification, Deforestation Evan 2-19-2015 Impacts on Agriculture, Food Security Evan 2-26-2015 Knowledge to Action: Sustainable Energy Access Ramanathan 3-03-2015 Knowledge to Action: Air Pollution & Climate Change Mitigation Ramanathan SIO 87: UNDERSTANDING AND PROTECTING THE PLANET Lecture 1: Environmental Issues Threatening Sustainability Ram Ramanathan Lecture 1: OPTIONAL READING HARVARD Readings in Sustainability Science and Technology; By Robert W. Kates, Editor CID Working Paper No. 213; December 2010. Preface by Prof W. C. Clark WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development) 1987. Our common future. New York: Oxford University Press (Brundtland Report) National Research Council (1999): Our Common Journey (Natl. Acad. Press, Washington, DC). LECTURE 1: REQUIRED READING A NEW GEOLOGIC ERA: THE ANTHROPOCENE DEFINING PLANETARY BOUNDARIES BASIC DEFINITIONS : SUSTAINABILITY SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE IS SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND INNOVATION IN SUPPORT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT—MEETING HUMAN NEEDS, REDUCING HUNGER AND POVERTY, WHILE MAINTAINING THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS OF THE PLANET; Kates, Harvard Reader, 2012 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: INTERGENERATIONAL EQUITY!! “HUMANITY HAS THE ABILITY TO MAKE DEVELOPMENT SUSTAINABLE —TO ENSURE THAT IT MEETS THE NEEDS OF THE PRESENT WITHOUT COMPROMISING THE ABILITY OF FUTURE GENERATIONS TO MEET THEIR OWN NEEDS.” Our Common Future; The Brundtland Report or WCED (World Commission on Environment and Development). 1987 GOALS FOR A SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION the primary goals of a transition toward sustainability over the next two generations should be to meet the needs of a much larger but stabilizing human population, to sustain the life support systems of the planet, and to substantially reduce hunger and poverty. Note the phrase Next Two Generations!! So, this course is about your future and the opportunities you have as students of this course and UCSD to help shape that future;…. not just for you but all inhabitants of this planet THIS SEMINAR WILL FOCUS: ON THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS OF THE PLANET AND ASK THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS: • HOW ARE WE DOING CURRENTLY WITH RESPECT TO THE PLANETARY LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS ? • WHAT SORT OF SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE TO SUSTAIN THE LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS? • WHAT STEPS ARE BEING TAKEN BY OUR LEADERS? WHAT ARE THE EXPERTS SAYING? ONE FINDING FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AS OF 1999 THIS WARNING WAS LAREGLY IGNORED BUT 2015 MAY BE A LAND MARK YEAR !! I. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Ref: Kates, 2010 1. HUMAN WELL-BEING (9 CHARACTERISTICS) POPULATION HEALTH POVERTY AND AFFLUENCE HABITATION AND TRANSPORTATION PEACE AND SECURITY ENERGY AND MATERIALS FOOD AND FIBER WATER AND SANITATION DISASTERS 2. PROTECTING THE EARTH’S LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEMS GLOBAL CLIMATE AND STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LAND ATMOSPHERE WATER OCEANS BIODIVERSITY ECOSYSTEM SERVICES 3.HUMAN-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS Ref: Kates, 2010 HUMAN DOMINION VS STEWARDSHIP Are we part of or apart from the Natural World? TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS For that which is common to the greatest number has the least care bestowed upon it: Aristotle LIMITS TO GROWTH: Success in human endeavor is measured in growth: Bigger is Better Exponential growth in: Population; Food production; industrialization; resource depletion; pollution Growth has limits GAIA (Lovelock) living organisms of earth do not just adapt to the planet, but act upon the planet to make it fit for life, keeping its temperature and atmosphere appropriate for its inhabitants • THE PLANETS ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY STABLE FOR THE PAST 10000 YEARS • HOLOCENE: WITNESSED HUMAN CIVILZATIONS ARISE, DEVELOP AND THRIVE • A NEW ERA HAS ARISEN: THE ANTHROPOCENE The Great Acceleration: The DRIVERS THE IMPACTS EQUATION ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE Primary Reference Material on Eco Systems Assessment http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf 2005 • More than 60 percent of the area projected to be urban in 2030 has yet to be built. Most of the growth is expected to happen in small and medium-sized cities, not in megacities. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2012) Cities and Biodiversity Outlook. Montreal, 64 pages. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/improve/Education/ReactiveN/NitrogenCycling.swf IPCC-AR5 Chapter 6, Figure 6.2 The eutrophication of the Potomac River is evident from the bright green water, caused by a dense bloom of C yanobacteria. Source: Wikipedia (NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY) AQUATIC DEAD ZONES Eutrophication: Excess Nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrients) from rivers, sewage, atmospheric deposition. Creates Anoxic conditions Algal blooms in La Jolla Air Pollution as example Disease emergence Eutrophication and Hypoxia Fisheries collapse(Fig 11; Page 12) Species Introduction and loss Regional climate Change (Sahelian Drought) Race to the finish line!! Outdoor Air Pollution 4 million die each year; about 100 million tons of crops destroyed NASA-MODIS Indoor air pollution kills 4 million annually (WHO 2014) Outdoor kills another 3 million November 14 2006 December 21 2001 Ramanathan 2007 Ozone and PM induced crop loss over India: 1998-2008 Burney and Ramanathan (2014) Particles in the air (aerosols including natural dust) influence Cloud formation and Rainfall/Snowfall in number of ways Intercept sunlight and cause dimming at surface; leads to reduced evaporation and decreased precipitation. Nucleates more cloud drops and suppress precipitation Nucleates more ice crystals(dust) and enhance precipitation Soot absorbs sunlight heats the air and some times evaporates clouds Major Rainfall Shifts during the last 50 Years Chung and Ramanathan 2006 Observed Trends in Summer Rainfall: 1950 to 2002 N-S Shift in Asian rainfall The Weakening Indian Monsoon The Sahelian Drought RECORD DROUGHT IN CALIFORNIA FOLSOM LAKE; July 20, 2011 FOLSOM LAKE; JAN 16, 2014 PHOTO CREDIT: DINA SPECTOR, BUSINESS INSIDER, FEB 26, 2014 3. Wildfires Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet January Issue of Science 2015 Authors: Will Steffen1,2, Katherine Richardson3, Johan Rockström1, Sarah Cornell1, Ingo Fetzer1, Elena M. Bennett4, R. Biggs1,5, Stephen R. Carpenter6, Wim de Vries7, Cynthia A. de Wit8, Carl Folke1,9, Dieter Gerten10, Jens Heinke10, Georgina M. Mace11, Linn M. Persson12, Veerabhadran Ramanathan13, B. Reyers14, Sverker Sörlin15 Planetary boundaries [Rockstrom et al, 2009] Planetary boundaries [Steffen et al, 2015] IMPACTS ON HUMAN DEVELOPMENT: SETTING THE BOUNDARIES THE BOTTOM THREE BILLION WORLD 4 million die every year from smoke pollution Mukteshwar, Central Himalayas, India Photo:Ramanathan, 2009