Options on Stock Indices and Currencies Chapter 15 15.1 Goals of Chapter 15 ๏ฌ ๏ฌ The effects of introducing the dividend yield on option pricing Introduce index options – – ๏ฌ How to hedge portfolios with index options The valuation of index options Introduce currency options – – The valuation of currency options Introduce the range-forward contracts, which consist of a currency call and a currency put with different strike prices 15.2 15.1 Dividend Yield and Option Pricing 15.3 European Options on Stocks Paying Dividend Yields ๏ฌ We get the same probability distribution for the stock price at time ๐ in each of the following cases: 1. The stock starts at price ๐0 and provides a dividend yield ๐ ๏ฎ To reflect the decline in the stock price due to the dividend yield payment, the expected growth rate of the stock price becomes ๐ − ๐ 2. The stock starts at price ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ and provides no dividend payments Check: ๐ธ[๐๐ ] in the first case is ๐0 ๐ ๐−๐ ๐ and ๐ธ[๐๐ ] in the second case is ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ โ ๐ ๐๐ = ๐0 ๐ ๐−๐ ๐ 15.4 European Options on Stocks Paying Dividend Yields ๏ฌ Recall the general pricing rule based on the RNVR, i.e., ๐ −๐๐ ๐ธ[payoff(๐๐ )|in the risk−neutral world] = ๏ฌ ๐ −๐๐ ∞ payoff 0 ๐๐ ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ Since the above two cases are with the identical probability density function ๐ ๐๐ , the option values are the same under these two cases 15.5 European Options on Stocks Paying Dividend Yields ๏ฌ To take the dividend yield into account, European options can be priced by only reducing the stock price to ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ based on the BSM formula introduced on Slide 13.18 ๐ = ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ ๐ ๐1 − ๐พ๐ −๐๐ ๐(๐2 ), ๐ = ๐พ๐ −๐๐ ๐ −๐2 − ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ ๐ −๐1 , where ๐1 = ๐2 = ln ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ /๐พ + ๐+๐ 2 /2 ๐ ๐ ๐ ln ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ /๐พ + ๐−๐ 2 /2 ๐ ๐ ๐ = = ln ๐0 /๐พ + ๐−๐+๐ 2 /2 ๐ ๐ ๐ ln ๐0 /๐พ + ๐−๐−๐ 2 /2 ๐ ๐ ๐ = ๐1 − ๐ ๐ 15.6 Binomial Tree Model for Stocks Paying Dividend Yields ๏ฌ Capture the effect of dividend yield payments in the binomial tree model – Since the expected growth rate of the stock price is ๐ − ๐ in the risk-neutral world, the risk-neutral probability, ๐, should be ๐๐ก ๐ข ๐๐ก ๐๐ก ๐ ๐ก ๐๐๐ก ๐ข + 1 − ๐ ๐๐ก ๐ = ๐๐ก ๐ก + Δ๐ก ๐ ๐−๐ Δ๐ก ๐ (๐−๐)Δ๐ก − ๐ ⇒๐= ๐ข−๐ 15.7 Binomial Tree Model for Stocks Paying Dividend Yields – Note that the dividend yield payment does not affect the variance of ๐๐ก+Δ๐ก , so ๐ข = ๐ ๐ Δ๐ก and ๐ = ๐ −๐ Δ๐ก in the CRR binomial model still holds – For any derivative on this stock, it can be priced as ๐ = ๐ −๐Δ๐ก [๐๐๐ข + 1 − ๐ ๐๐ ] (Note that the discount rate is still the risk free interest rate) ๐๐ข ๐ ๐๐ ๐ก ๐ก + Δ๐ก 15.8 Extension of Results in Ch. 10 ๏ฌ When the dividend yield payment is considered, the technique of replacing ๐0 with ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ can be applied to deriving the lower bounds and the put-call parity for stock options – The lower bounds for European calls and puts ๐ ≥ ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ − ๐พ๐ −๐๐ ๐ ≥ ๐พ๐ −๐๐ − ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ – The put-call parity for European options ๐ + ๐พ๐ −๐๐ = ๐ + ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ – The put-call parity for American options ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ − ๐พ ≤ ๐ถ − ๐ ≤ ๐0 − ๐พ๐ −๐๐ 15.9 15.2 Index Options 15.10 Index Options ๏ฌ The most popular indices underlying index options in the U.S. are – Dow Jones Industrial Average times 0.01 (DJX) – Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) – Russell 2000 Index (RUT) – S&P 100 Index (OEX and XEO) – S&P 500 Index (SPX) โปContracts are on 100 times index, or equivalently, one point of index level is worth $100 โปThey are settled in cash โปOEX is American and the rests are European 15.11 LEAPS ๏ฌ Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities (LEAPS) – Leaps are options on stock indices that last up to 3 years – They have December expiration dates ๏ฎ For other index options, they are issued on January, February, or March cycle – The index is adjusted appropriately (divided by five or ten) for the purposes of quoting the strike price and the option price – Leaps also trade on some individual stocks 15.12 Portfolio Insurance with Index Options ๏ฌ An example for calculating the payoff of an index option – Consider a call option on an index with a strike price of 560 – Suppose one of this index call option is exercised when the index level is 580 – The payoff is max 580 − 560,0 × $100 = $2000 15.13 Portfolio Insurance with Index Options ๏ฌ The general rule to use index options to hedge portfolio – Suppose the value of the index is ๐0 and the strike price is ๐พ – If a portfolio has a ๐ฝ of 1.0, the portfolio insurance is obtained by buying 1 put option contract on the index for each 100๐0 dollars of the portfolio – If the ๐ฝ is not 1.0, the portfolio manager buys ๐ฝ put options for each 100๐0 dollars held – In both cases, ๐พ is chosen to give the appropriate insurance level which the hedger requires 15.14 Portfolio Insurance with Index Options ๏ฌ Example 1 for portfolio beta equal to 1.0 – The portfolio is currently worth $500,000 – The index currently stands at 1000 – What trade is necessary to provide insurance against the portfolio value falling below $450,000 after 3 month? โปLong 5 3-month puts with the strike price to be 900 * Suppose the index drops to 880 in 3 months: 880 – The portfolio will be worth about $500,000 × 1000 = $440,000 – The payoff from the 5 put options will be 5 × max(900 15.15 Portfolio Insurance with Index Options ๏ฌ Example 2 for portfolio beta equal to 2.0 – – – – The portfolio is currently worth $500,000 The index currently stands at 1000 The risk-free rate is 12% per annum The dividend yield on both the portfolio and the index is 4% – How many put option contracts should be purchased to ensure the value of the portfolio higher than $450,000? โปLong 10 puts with the strike price to be 960 15.16 Portfolio Insurance with Index Options ๏ฌ Calculating the relation between the index level and the portfolio value after 3 months – If the index rises to 1040, it provides a 40/1000 or 4% return in 3 months – Total return (including dividends) = 5% – Excess return over the risk-free rate = 2% ๏ฎ Note that the risk-free rate is 3% in 3 months – Based on the CAPM, the total return of the portfolio being hedged = 3% + 2×2% = 7% – The net return of the portfolio excluding dividends = 7% – 1% = 6% – The end-period portfolio value = $500,000×(1 + 6%) 15.17 = $530,000 Portfolio Insurance with Index Options Value of Index in 3 months Expected Portfolio Value in 3 months ($) 1,080 1,040 1,000 960 920 880 570,000 530,000 490,000 450,000 410,000 370,000 โป Examine the expected portfolio value given different scenarios of the stock index ๏ A put with a strike price of 960 will provide the protection such that the portfolio value will not be lower than $450,000 after 3 months15.18 Valuing Index Options ๏ฌ How to pricing index options – For European index options, use the formula for an option on a stock paying a continuous dividend yield on Slide 15.6: ๏ฎ ๏ฎ Set ๐0 to be the current index level Set ๐ to be the expected dividend yield of the market index portfolio during the life of the option 15.19 Valuing Index Options – Use the binomial tree model introduced on Slides 15.7 and 15.8 to price both European and American index options ๏ฎ For each iteration of the backward induction, ๐ = ๐ −๐Δ๐ก [๐๐๐ข + 1 − ๐ ๐๐ ] is computed, where ๐ = ๏ฎ ๐ (๐−๐)Δ๐ก −๐ ๐ข−๐ and ๐ข = ๐ ๐ Δ๐ก and ๐ = ๐ −๐ Δ๐ก For American options, the option value for each node equals the maximum of ๐ and the early exercise value 15.20 15.3 Currency Options 1.21 Currency Options ๏ฌ Currency options trade on the NASDAQ OMX ๏ฌ There also exists an active over-the-counter (OTC) market – The exchange-traded market for currency options is much smaller than the over-the-counter market ๏ฌ Currency options are commonly used by corporations to buy insurance when they have an foreign exchange exposure 15.22 Currency Options ๏ฌ Valuation of European currency options – A foreign currency can be regarded as an asset that provides a continuous “dividend yield” equal to the foreign interest rate ๐๐ ๏ฎ The owner of one unit of the foreign currency can earn the continuous compounding foreign interest rate ๐๐ – We can use the formula for an option on a stock paying a continuous dividend yield on Slide 15.6: ๏ฎ ๏ฎ Set ๐0 to be the current exchange rate (the value of one unit of the foreign currency in terms of domestic dollars) Set ๐ to be the foreign interest rate ๐๐ 15.23 Currency Options – The formulae for currency calls and puts ๐ = ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ ๐ ๐ ๐1 − ๐พ๐ −๐๐ ๐(๐2 ), ๐ = ๐พ๐ −๐๐ ๐ −๐2 − ๐0 ๐ −๐๐๐ ๐ −๐1 , where ๐1 = ๐2 = ln ๐0 /๐พ + ๐−๐๐ +๐ 2 /2 ๐ ๐ ๐ ln ๐0 /๐พ + ๐−๐๐ −๐ 2 /2 ๐ ๐ ๐ = ๐1 − ๐ ๐ โปThe symmetrical relationship between currency puts and calls: A put option to sell currency A for currency B at a strike price ๐พ is the same as a call option to buy currency B with currency A at a strike price of 1/๐พ 15.24 Currency Options – Alternative formulae for currency calls and puts using the forward exchange rate ๐น0 = ๐0 ๐ ๐−๐๐ ๐ ๐ = ๐ −๐๐ [๐น0 ๐ ๐1 − ๐พ๐ ๐2 ], ๐ = ๐ −๐๐ [๐พ๐ −๐2 − ๐น0 ๐ −๐1 ], where ๏ฎ ๏ฎ ln ๐น0 /๐พ +๐ 2 ๐/2 ๐1 = ๐ ๐ ln ๐น0 /๐พ −๐ 2 ๐/2 ๐2 = ๐ ๐ = ๐1 − ๐ ๐ For the above equation to be correct, the maturities of the forward contract and the option must be the same The advantage of the alternative formulae: they avoid the need to estimate ๐๐ because all the information needed about ๐๐ is in ๐น0 15.25 Currency Options ๏ฌ Valuation of American currency options – Use the binomial tree model introduced on Slides 15.7 and 15.8 ๏ฎ For each iteration of the backward induction, ๐ = ๐ −๐Δ๐ก [๐๐๐ข + 1 − ๐ ๐๐ ] is computed, where ๐ = ๏ฎ ๐ (๐−๐๐ )Δ๐ก −๐ ๐ข−๐ and ๐ข = ๐ ๐ Δ๐ก and ๐ = ๐ −๐ Δ๐ก For pricing American currency options, option value = max(๐, early exercise value) for each node 15.26 Extension of Results in Ch. 10 ๏ฌ The lower bounds and the put-call parity for currency options – The lower bounds for European currency calls and puts ๐ ≥ ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ ๐ − ๐พ๐ −๐๐ ๐ ≥ ๐พ๐ −๐๐ − ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ ๐ – The put-call parity for European options ๐ + ๐พ๐ −๐๐ = ๐ + ๐0 ๐ −๐๐๐ – The put-call parity for American options ๐0 ๐ −๐๐ ๐ − ๐พ ≤ ๐ถ − ๐ ≤ ๐0 − ๐พ๐ −๐๐ 15.27 Range Forward Contracts ๏ฌ A range forward contract is a variation on a standard forward contract for hedging foreign exchange risk – Short (long) range forward: buying (selling) a European put with a strike price ๐พ1 and selling (buying) a European call with a strike price ๐พ2 Payoff of long range forward Payoff of short range forward Asset Price K1 K2 Short forward K1 Long forward K2 Asset Price 15.28 Range Forward Contracts – Consider a U.S. company that knows it will receive one million pounds sterling in three months 1. Entering into a short forward contract with the delivery price to be $1.6200/๏ฟก 2. Entering into a short range-forward contract with ๐พ1 = $1.6000/๏ฟก and ๐พ2 = $1.6413/๏ฟก The value of 1๏ฟก in US$ Short forward contract Short range-forward contract (๐ ๐ฒ๐ = ๐. ๐๐๐๐ − ๐(๐ฒ๐ = ๐. ๐๐๐๐)) ๐๐ < ๐พ1 $1.62 ๐๐ + (๐พ1 – ๐๐ ) = ๐พ1 = 1.6000 ๐พ1 ≤ ๐๐ < ๐พ2 $1.62 ๐๐ ๐๐ ≥ ๐พ2 $1.62 ๐๐ – (๐๐ – ๐พ2 ) = ๐พ2 = 1.6413 * ๐๐ denotes the final exchange rate after 3 months 15.29 Range Forward Contracts Effective exchange rate K2 1.62 K1 ST K1 K2 – Range forward contracts have the effect of ensuring that the exchange rate paid or received will lie within a certain range ๏ฎ ๏ฎ The U.S. company will receive ๏ฟก1,000,000 × ๐๐ if ๐๐ is in [๐พ1 , ๐พ2 ] The U.S. company enjoys the gains (suffers the losses) of the appreciation (depreciation) of the British pounds but the gains (losses) are limited when ๐๐ > ๐พ2 (๐๐ < ๐พ1 )15.30 Range Forward Contracts – Normally the price of the put equals the price of the call in a range forward ๏ฎ ๏ฎ It costs noting to set up the range-forward contract, just as it costs nothing to enter into a forward contract In the above numerical example, suppose ๐ and ๐๐ are both 5%, the spot exchange rate is $1.62/๏ฟก, and the exchange rate volatility is 14% ๏ ๐(๐พ1 = 1.6000) and ๐(๐พ2 = 1.6413) are both worth $0.03521/๏ฟก 15.31