Inflation and Deflation in Capital

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Capital and Entrepreneurship.

A Subjectivist Exposition of

Roundaboutness and the

Structure of Production

Antony Mueller

UCS Graduate Business School

University Caxias do Sul, Brazil antonymueller@yahoo.com

Variant Meanings of “Capital”

 Capital as Financial Capital

 Capital a Production Goods

 Capital as a Stock

 Capital as a Production Process

 Capital as a Productive Force

 Capital as a Factor of Production

Capital Theory

 Heterogeneity vs homogeneity of capital

 Structured vs. unitary

 Production process vs. fixed stock

 Separate productivity of factors of production vs Coordination and

Specialization

 Permanence vs. Non-permanence

 Absence of Entrepreneur vs. Pivotal

Role of Entrepreneurship

Roundaboutness – Umwegproduktion

Q

Roundabout

Production

Standard

Production

Available Time

RTP to

B t1

Q

New Roundabout

Production

Standard

Production

E

S

RP’

RP

SP

RTP

RTP n

RTP m

Sn Sm S

Roundaboutness and Stages of

Production (dAD = 0)

DoR

FP

-ΔD

+ΔD dAD = Change in Aggregate Demand

DR = Degree of Roundaboutness

FP = Final Product dD = Change in Demand

Modeling capital as “Hayekian triangle”

A simple Hayekian triangle – Stages of Production

Degrees of Consumption

Maturity Consumable

Output

SP1, ........ , SPx, .......... SPn Consumption

Stages of Production (SP)

Savings and economic growth in the Hayekian triangle

D

A C

B

C B A

Shortening of Production Structure

DR

FP

+dD

-dD

Unsustainable Production Structures

Central Planning Distortions

DR

FP

+dD

+dD

Soviet-Cuba Style Development

Policy = Guns and Butter Policy

+DR

+dD +dD

SoP

Imports-maintained Production

Structure

DR

FP

+dD

+dIM

DR

Growth-cum-debt development strategy in a three-stages model

FP

+dD

+dD

+dIM

DR

Forced Savings

+dEX

FP

-dD

+dD

Natural and cyclical production frontiers

P NPF

AD

CPF

Po

Q0 Output

Productivity-induced expansion

P

P0

P1

NPFo NPF’

Q0 Q1

AD

Output

Money-induced expansion in the loanable fund model

 i ICD/CCD

S S + dM dAD LF

Savings and credit supply and demand

S S+ΔM =

TCS i

CD i n im

En Em

TC

Productivity gains and inflation targeting – recipe for a boom bust cycle?

P NPF NPF’

AD

CPF

P3

CPF’

P0 P2

AD’

P1

Q0 Q3 Q1 Q2 Output

Government and consumption credit-driven expansion

 i I I+CC+GC S S + dM

 i0

I, C, G

Effect on production frontier

 P NPF’ NPF

CPF ‘

CPF

Q2 Q0 Q1

AD

AD’

Output

Credit expansion and credit crunch – financial markets

 i S - dM

I S

S + dM i’’

 i0

 i’ dAD’’ dAD dAD’

LF

Austrian Disaggregation

 PQ = Pc (Qc) + P I (Q I

1

+...+ Q I x

+ ... + Q I

N

)

 Keynesian Disaggregation:

 PQ = Y

 Y= C + I + G

 Monetarist Disaggregation:

 MV = PQ

 MV = YrP

 M = MB x m

Money side and goods side

M x V = Q x P

(MV/P) = Q

P

Q

Po

MV/P

Q

Money side and goods side –

Change of Q

M x V = Q x P

(MV/P) = Q

P

Qo Q1

Po

P1 MV/P

Q

Money side and goods side –change of M and/or V

M x V = Q x P

(MV/P) = Q

P

Q

P1

Po

MV/P’

MV/P

Q

Equation of Exchange

 Equation of Exchange

 MV = PQ

 Keynesian Model:

 MV = P (Qc + QI + QG)

 Monetarist Model:

 MB x m x V = P x Yr

 Disaggregated Model

 MB x m x V = Pc (Qc) + P I (Q I

1

+...+ Q I x

+ ... +

Q I

N

) + P

A

(Q

A

)

Classical, Monetarist, and

Keynesian View

 Classical Position:

 Auto-Stabilization through interest rate

 Keynesian Position:

 Destabilization through investment (paradox of thrift) – Stabilization through deficit spending

 Monetarist Position:

 Destabilization through money – Stabilization through stable money supply

Problem and its Solution

 Instability through money, banking and government

 Solution proposals

 Gold standard

 Commodity standard

 Denationalization of money

 Hundred per cent reserve requirement

Summary

 Causes of Instability in Keynesianism and

Monetarism: I and Ms

 Realb Business Cycle: Shocks, mainly external

 Instability in Austrian Economics: deviation of monetary rate of interest from natural rate

 Causes of instability in this model: Any kind of interventionism as to I, G, Ms, Md, i

 Cycle gets amplified because of Fractional

Reserve Banking

Main elements of this model

 Time preference

 Roundaboutness

 Stages of production

 Standard production

 Roundabout production

 Capital

 Entrepreneurship

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