Population dynamics
IGCSE Global Perspectives
World Population Growth Through History
Billions
12
11
2100
10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
Black Death —The Plague
1900
1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World Population Growth, in Billions
Number of years to add each billion (year)
All of Human History
First Billion
130 (1930)
Second
Third
Fourth
30 (1960)
15 (1975)
Fifth
12 (1987)
Sixth
12 (1999)
Seventh
14 (2013)
Eighth
14 (2027)
Ninth
(1800)
21 (2048)
Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World
Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
2009
Country
2050
Population
(milions)
Country
Population
(milions)
China
1331
India
1748
India
1171
China
1437
USA
307
USA
439
Indonesia
243
Indonesia
343
Brazil
191
Pakistan
335
Pakistan
181
Nigeria
285
Bangladesh
162
Bangladesh
222
Nigeria
153
Brazil
215
Russia
142
Dem. Rep. of
Congo
189
Japan
128
Philippines
150
World Population Growth Is Almost Entirely
Concentrated in the World's Poorer Countries.
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
More developed countries
The “more developed” countries and areas
include all of North America and Europe
plus Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
This category matches the “more
developed” classification employed by the
United Nations.
Less developed countries
The “less developed” countries include all of
Africa, all of Asia except Japan, the
Transcaucasian and Central Asian republics, all
of Latin America and the Caribbean, and all of
Oceania except Australia and New Zealand.
This category matches the “less developed
country” classification employed by the United
Nations.
“Less developed” countries are sometimes
referred to as “developing” countries.
Factors influencing population
growth
• The birth rate is defined as the number of
live births per 1000 population in a year.
If the birth rate of a country is 20/1000, this means that on average
for every 1000 people in this country 20 births will occur in a year.
• The death rate is the number of deaths
per thousand population in a year.
If the death rate for the same country is 8/1000, it means that on
average for every 1000 people 8 deaths will occur.
• The difference between the birth rate and the death rate
is the rate of natural change.
• Rate of natural increase – The birth rate minus the
death rate, implying the annual rate of population growth
without regard for migration. Expressed as a percentage.
Additional effects of migration are not included.
In this case it will be 12/1000 (20/1000 - 8/1000).
Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide
Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population
40
35
30
25
20
Natural Increase
15
10
5
0
1950- 1955- 1960- 1965- 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 20001955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Birth rate
Death rate
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.
Region
Birth rate
Death rate
World
21
9
More developed world
11
10
Less developed world
23
8
Africa
38
14
Asia
19
7
Latin America / Caribbean
21
6
North America
14
8
Oceania
18
7
Europe
10
11
World Population Clock
2005
Natural
Increase per
More
Developed
Countries
World
Less
Developed
Countries
Less
Developed
Countries
(less China)
Year
80,794,218
1,234,907
79,559,311
71,906,587
Day
221,354
3,383
217,971
197,004
154
2
151
137
Minute
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
• Population change in a country is affected
by
a) the difference between births and
deaths (natural change) and
b) the balance between immigration and
emigration (net migration).
• The immigration rate is the number of
immigrants per 1000 population in the
receiving country in a year.
• The emigration rate is the number of
emigrants per 1000 population in the
country of origin in a year.
• The rate of net migration is the
difference between the rates of
immigration and emigration.