Preview
• The basics of exchange rates
• Exchange rates and the prices of goods
• The foreign exchange markets
• The demand for currency and other assets
• A model of foreign exchange markets

role of interest rates on currency deposits

role of expectations about the exchange rates
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13-1
Definitions of Exchange Rates
• Exchange rates are quoted as foreign
currency per unit of domestic currency or
domestic currency per unit of foreign currency.

How much can be exchanged for one dollar?
¥102/$1
 European term: foreign currency units per dollar
 How much can be exchanged for one yen?
$0.0098/¥1
 American term: dollars per foreign currency unit
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13-2
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13-3
Definitions of Exchange Rates (cont.)
• Exchange rate allow us to denominate the cost or
price of a good or service in a common currency.

How much does a Honda cost? ¥3,000,000

Or, ¥3,000,000 x $0.0098/¥1 = $29,400
• How many British pounds would it cost to buy a pair
of American designer jeans costing $45 if the
exchange rate is 1.60 dollars per British pound?
• What is the exchange rate between the dollar and the
British pound if a pair of American jeans costs 50
dollars in New York and 100 pounds in London?
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13-4
Depreciation and Appreciation
• Depreciation is a decrease in the value of a
currency relative to another currency.

A depreciated currency is less valuable (less
expensive) and therefore can be exchanged for
(can buy) a smaller amount of foreign currency.

$1/€1  $1.20/€1 means that the dollar has
depreciated relative to the euro. It now takes $1.20
to buy one euro, so that the dollar is less valuable.

The euro has appreciated relative to the dollar:
it is now more valuable.
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13-5
Depreciation and Appreciation (cont.)
• Appreciation is an increase in the value of a
currency relative to another currency.

An appreciated currency is more valuable (more
expensive) and therefore can be exchanged for
(can buy) a larger amount of foreign currency.

$1/€1  $0.90/€1 means that the dollar has
appreciated relative to the euro. It now takes
only $0.90 to buy one euro, so that the dollar is
more valuable.

The euro has depreciated relative to the dollar:
it is now less valuable.
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13-6
Depreciation and Appreciation (cont.)
• A depreciated currency is less valuable, and therefore
it can buy fewer foreign produced goods that are
denominated in foreign currency.



How much does a Honda cost? ¥3,000,000
¥3,000,000 x $0.0098/¥1 = $29,400
¥3,000,000 x $0.0100/¥1 = $30,000
• A depreciated currency means that imports are more
expensive and domestically produced goods and
exports are less expensive.
• A depreciated currency lowers the price of exports
relative to the price of imports.
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13-7
Depreciation and Appreciation (cont.)
• An appreciated currency is more valuable, and
therefore it can buy more foreign produced goods that
are denominated in foreign currency.



How much does a Honda cost? ¥3,000,000
¥3,000,000 x $0.0098/¥1 = $29,400
¥3,000,000 x $0.0090/¥1 = $27,000
• An appreciated currency means that imports are less
expensive and domestically produced goods and
exports are more expensive.
• An appreciated currency raises the price of exports
relative to the price of imports.
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13-8
The Foreign Exchange Market
The market participants:
1. Commercial banks and other depository
institutions: transactions involve buying/selling of
bank deposits in different currencies for investment.
2. Non bank financial institutions (pension funds,
insurance funds) may buy/sell foreign assets.
3. Private firms: conduct foreign currency transactions
to buy/sell goods, assets or services.
4. Central banks: conduct official international
reserves transactions.
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13-9
The Foreign Exchange Market (cont.)
• Buying and selling in the foreign exchange
market are dominated by commercial banks.

Inter-bank transactions of deposits in foreign
currencies occur in amounts $1 million or more
per transaction.

Central banks sometimes intervene, but the direct
effects of their transactions are usually small
and transitory.
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13-10
The Foreign Exchange Market (cont.)
Characteristics of the market:
• Trading occurs mostly in major financial
cities: London, New York, Tokyo, Frankfurt, Singapore.
• FX market is the largest market in the world
• The volume of foreign exchange has grown:

in 1989 the daily volume of trading was $600 billion, in 2001
the daily volume of trading was $1.2 trillion.
• About 90% of transactions in 2001 involved U.S.
dollars.
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13-11
The Foreign Exchange Market (cont.)
• Computers transmit information rapidly and
have integrated markets.
• The integration of markets implies that there is
no significant arbitrage between markets.

if dollars are cheaper in New York than in London,
people will buy them in New York and stop buying
them in London. The price of dollars in New York
rises and the price of dollars in London falls, until
the prices in the two markets are equal.
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13-12
Triangular Arbitrage
• (Example)



S1=1.6 dollars / pound
S2=1.1 dollars / euro
S3=1.55 euros / pound
• An arbitrage strategy is to put 1.6 dollars to
buy one pound, sell that pound for 1.55 euros,
and then sell the euros for 1.1 dollars each

You begin with 1.6 dollars and end up with 1.705
dollars
• No triangular arbitrage profit in real world
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13-13
Spot Rates and Forward Rates
• Spot rates are exchange rates for
currency exchanges “on the spot”, or
when trading is executed in the present.
(actually, in two working days)
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13-14
Spot Rates and Forward Rates
• Forward rates are exchange rates for
currency exchanges that will occur at a future
(“forward”) date.

current agreements on the price, quantity, and
maturity or future delivery date for a foreign
currency

forward dates are typically 30, 90, 180 or 360 days
in the future.

rates are negotiated between individual institutions
in the present, but the exchange occurs in the
future.
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13-15
Forward Transaction: An Example
• Radio Shack knows that in 30 days it must pay yen to
Sony for a shipment of radios arriving then.

Radio Shack can sell each radio for $100 and must
pay Sony 9,000 yen per radio

Current spot rate: s=$0.0105/yen
• Radio Shack’s profit depends on the dollar/yen
exchange rate.

If s=$0.0105/yen, Radio Shack would pay
$0.0105*9000 yen/radio=$94.50/radio

If s=$0.0115/yen, Radio Shack would pay
$0.0115*9000 yen/radio=$103.50/radio
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13-16
Forward Transaction: An Example
• To avoid this risk, Radio Shack can make a 30-day
forward exchange deal with Bank of America.

If the bank agrees to sell yen to Radio Shack in 30
days at a rate of $0.0107,

Radio Shack is assured of paying exactly
$0.0107*9000 yen/radio=$96.30/radio
• By buying yen and selling dollars forward, it is
guaranteed a profit of $3.70 per radio and is insured
against the possibility that a sudden exchange rate
change will turn a profitable importing deal into a loss.
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13-17
Spot and Forward Rates
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13-18
Foreign Exchange Swaps
• A combination of a spot sale with a forward
repurchase, both negotiated between
individual institutions.



The price of both the current and future transaction
is set today
Example: agree to buy I million euros at 0.98
million dollars today and sell the I million euros
back in 6 months time for 0.95 million dollars
swaps often result in lower brokers’ fees or
transactions costs because they combine two
transactions.
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13-19
Eurocurrency
• A Eurocurrency is a foreign currency denominated
deposit at a bank located outside the country
(offshore bank).

The deposit does not have to be in Europe.

a US dollar deposit at a London bank  a Eurodollar
deposit

a yen deposit at a Dallas bank  a Euroyen deposit

Most Eurocurrency deposits are fixed-interest timedeposits with maturities that match those available for
forward foreign exchange contracts
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13-20
The Demand for Currency Deposits
• What influences the demand for (willingness
to buy) deposits denominated in domestic or
foreign currency?
• Factors that influence the return on assets
determine the demand for those assets.
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13-21
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• Rate of return: the percentage change in
value that an asset offers during a time
period.

The annual return for $100 savings account with
an interest rate of 2% is $100 x 1.02 = $102

the rate of return = ($102 - $100)/$100 = 2%
• (T/F) If the dollar interest rate is 10 percent
and the euro interest rate is 6 percent, then an
investor should invest only in dollars.
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13-22
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• Real rate of return: inflation-adjusted rate of
return.

stated in terms of real purchasing power: the
amount of real goods & services that can be
purchased with the asset.

the real rate of return for the above savings
account when inflation is 1.5%: 2% – 1.5% =
0.5%. The asset can purchase 0.5% more goods
and services after 1 year.
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13-23
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• If prices are given at some level, inflation is
0% and (nominal) rates of return = real rates
of return.
• For bank deposits in different currencies, we
often assume that prices are given at some
level. (A good short run assumption.)
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13-24
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• Risk of holding assets

An asset’s real return is usually unpredictable

Savers dislike uncertain and are reluctant to hold
assets that make their wealth highly variable
• Liquidity of an asset, or ease of using the
asset to buy goods and services
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13-25
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• But we assume that risk and liquidity of bank
deposits in the foreign exchange market are
the same, regardless of their currency
denomination.

risk and liquidity are only of secondary importance
when deciding to buy or sell currency.

importers and exporters may be concerned about
risk and liquidity, but they make up a small fraction
of the market.
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13-26
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• We assume that investors are primarily
concerned about the rates of return on bank
deposits. Rates of return are determined by

interest rates that the assets earn

expectations about appreciation or depreciation
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13-27
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• A currency’s interest rate is the amount of a currency
an individual can earn by lending a unit of the
currency for a year.
• The rate of return for a deposit in domestic currency
is the interest rate that the bank deposit earns.
• To compare the rate of return on a deposit in domestic
currency with one in foreign currency, consider


the interest rate for the foreign currency deposit
the expected rate of appreciation or depreciation of the
foreign currency relative to the domestic currency.
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13-28
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• Suppose the interest rate on a dollar deposit is 2%.
• Suppose the interest rate on a euro deposit is 4%.
• Does a euro deposit yield a higher expected rate
of return?

Suppose today the exchange rate is $1/€1, and the expected
rate 1 year in the future is $0.97/€1.

$100 can be exchanged today for €100.

These €100 will yield €104 after 1 year.

These €104 are expected to be worth $0.97/€1 x €104 =
$100.88.
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13-29
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• The rate of return in terms of dollars from investing in
euro deposits is ($100.88-$100)/$100 = 0.88%.
• Let’s compare this rate of return with the rate of return
from a dollar deposit.

rate of return is simply the interest rate

After 1 year the $100 is expected to yield $102:
($102-$100)/$100 = 2%
• The euro deposit has a lower expected rate of return:
all investors will prefer dollar deposits and none are
willing to hold euro deposits.
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13-30
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• Note that the expected rate of appreciation of
the euro is ($0.97- $1)/$1 = -0.03 = -3%.
• We simplify the analysis by saying that the
dollar rate of return on euro deposits
approximately equals



the interest rate on euro deposits
plus the expected rate of appreciation on
euro deposits
4% + -3% = 1% ≈ 0.88%
• R€ + (Ee$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
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13-31
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• The difference in the rate of return on dollar
deposits and euro deposits is
R$ - (R€ + (Ee$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€ ) =
R$
expected rate
of return =
interest rate
on dollar
deposits
- R€
interest rate
on euro
deposits
- (Ee$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
expected
exchange rate
current
exchange rate
expected rate of appreciation
of the euro
expected rate of return on euro deposits
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13-32
The Demand for Currency Deposits (cont.)
• When the difference is positive, dollar
deposits yield the higher expected rate
of return  hold dollar deposits
• When the difference is negative, euro
deposits yield the higher expected rate
of return  hold euro deposits
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13-33
Dollar Deposits or Euro Deposits?
1) R$ =10%, R€ =6%,
expected rate of dollar depreciation = 0%
2) R$ =10%, R€ =6%,
expected rate of dollar depreciation = 4%
3) R$ =10%, R€ =6%,
expected rate of dollar depreciation = 8%
4) R$ =10%, R€ =12%,
expected rate of dollar depreciation = -4%
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13-34
The Demand for Currency Assets
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13-35
The Market for Foreign Exchange
• We use the


demand for (rate of return on) dollar denominated
deposits
and the demand for (rate of return on) foreign
currency denominated deposits to construct a
model of the foreign exchange market.
• The foreign exchange market is in equilibrium
when deposits of all currencies offer the same
expected rate of return: interest parity.

interest parity implies that deposits in all currencies
are deemed equally desirable assets.
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13-36
The Market for Foreign Exchange (cont.)
• Interest parity says:
R$ = R€ + (Ee$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
• Why should this condition hold? Suppose it didn’t.




Suppose R$ > R€ + (Ee$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€ .
Then no investor would want to hold euro deposits, driving
down the demand and price of euros.
Then all investors would want to hold dollar deposits, driving
up the demand and price of dollars.
The dollar would appreciate and the euro would depreciate,
increasing the right side until equality was achieved.
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13-37
The Market for Foreign Exchange (cont.)
• How do changes in the current exchange rate
affect expected returns in foreign currency?
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13-38
The Market for Foreign Exchange (cont.)
• Depreciation of the domestic currency today
lowers the expected return on deposits in
foreign currency.

A current depreciation of domestic currency will
raise the initial cost of investing in foreign currency,
thereby lowering the expected return in foreign
currency.
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13-39
The Market for Foreign Exchange (cont.)
• Appreciation of the domestic currency today
raises the expected return of deposits in
foreign currency.

A current appreciation of the domestic currency will
lower the initial cost of investing in foreign
currency, thereby raising the expected return in
foreign currency.
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13-40
Expected Returns on Euro Deposits
Suppose Ee$/€ = $1.05/€ and R$ = R€ = 5%
1) E$/€ =1.07
2) E$/€ =1.05
3) E$/€ =1.03
4) E$/€ =1.02
5) E$/€ =1.00
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13-41
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13-42
The Current
Exchange
Rate and
the Expected
Return on
Dollar
Deposits
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13-43
The Current Exchange Rate and the
Expected Return on Dollar Deposits
Current exchange
rate, E$/€
1.07
1.05
1.03
1.02
1.00
0.031
0.050
R$
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0.069
0.079 0.100
Expected dollar return
on dollar deposits, R$
13-44
Determination of the Equilibrium
Exchange Rate
No one is willing to
hold euro deposits
No one is willing to
hold dollar deposits
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13-45
The Market for Foreign Exchange
• The effects of changing interest rates:

an increase in the interest rate paid on deposits
denominated in a particular currency will increase
the rate of return on those deposits.

This leads to an appreciation of the currency.

A rise in dollar interest rates causes the dollar
to appreciate.

A rise in euro interest rates causes the dollar
to depreciate.
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13-46
The Effect of a Rise in the
Dollar Interest Rate
A depreciation
of the euro is
an appreciation
of the dollar.
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13-47
The Effect of a Rise in the
Euro Interest Rate
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13-48
The Effect of an Expected Appreciation
of the Euro
People now
expect the
euro to
appreciate
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13-49
The Effect of an Expected Appreciation
of the Euro (cont.)
• If people expect the euro to appreciate in the
future, then investment will pay off in a
valuable (“strong”) euro, so that these future
euros will be able to buy many dollars and
many dollar denominated goods.



the expected return on euros therefore increases.
an expected appreciation of a currency leads to an
actual appreciation (a self-fulfilling prophecy)
an expected depreciation of a currency leads to an
actual depreciation (a self-fulfilling prophecy)
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13-50
Covered Interest Parity
• Spot, forward, and Eurocurrency rates
are mutually dependent through the
Covered interest parity
• Covered interest parity relates interest
rates across countries and the rate of
change between forward exchange
rates and the spot exchange rate
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13-51
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• CIP condition:
R$ = R€ + (F$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
where F$/€ is the forward exchange rate.
• CIP states that the rates of return on dollar
deposits and covered foreign deposits must
be the same.
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13-52
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• Suppose you want to buy a euro deposit with
dollars but would like to be certain about the
number of dollars it will be worth at the end of
a year.
• You can avoid exchange rate risk by buying a
euro deposit and, at the same time, selling the
principal and interest forward for dollars
 You have covered yourself or avoided the
possibility of an unexpected depreciation of
the euro
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13-53
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• Let’s define

R$: interest rate on dollar deposit

R€ : interest rate on euro deposit

E$/€: spot exchange rate

F$/€ : forward exchange rate
• Suppose that

R$ = 0.10

R€ = 0.04

E$/€ = $1.050/ €

F$/€ = $1.113/ €
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13-54
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• Rate of return on a dollar deposit = 10%
• Rate of return on a covered euro deposit = 10.3%

A € 1 deposit costs $1.05 today, and it is worth €1.04 after a
year

If you sell €1.04 forward today at the forward rate of $1.113/€,
the dollar value of your investment at the end of year is
$1.113/€ x €1.04 = 1.158

The rate of return on a covered purchase of a euro deposit is
(1.158-1.05)/1.05 = $0.103
• So CIP does not hold, and no one would be willing to
hold dollar deposits
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13-55
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• Covered return on euro deposit
[ F$/€ (1+ R€ ) - E$/€)] / E$/€
 R€ + (F$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
• Therefore, CIP condition can be written
R$ = R€ + (F$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
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13-56
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• Forward Premium on euros against dollars =
(F$/€ - E$/€)/E$/€
In general,
(F - E)/E *(360/the number of maturity
days)*100
• CIP  the interest rate on dollar deposits
equals the interest rate on euro deposits plus
the forward premium on euros against dollars
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13-57
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• Strong empirical evidence that CIP
holds for different foreign currency
deposits issued within a single financial
center
• Currency traders often set the forward
rates they quote by looking at current
interest rates and spot rates and using
CIP formula
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13-58
Covered Interest Parity (cont.)
• By comparing uncovered interest parity (UIP) with
CIP, we find that both conditions can be true at the
same time only if the one-year forward rate quoted
today equals the spot rate people expect to
materialize a year from today:
F$/€ = Ee$/€
 when two parties agree to trade foreign exchange
on a date in the future, the exchange rate they agree
on is the spot rate they expect to prevail on that date
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13-59