Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1)
"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"
Motivation
• Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO2eq
– Strongly rising bioenergy demand
– Biospheric carbon management: soil carbon, REDD, afforestation
– Reduction of methane/nitrous oxide emissions from ag. production
Science integration
• Linking Integrated Assessment models, global agricultural models and
farm household models
• Top-down: Spatially-explicit land use change scenarios; global
boundary conditions for household studies
• Bottom-up: Improvement of global models (e.g. role of mixed systems)
• Global models: IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, (PBL/IMAGE, …)
• Regional cases: Indonesia, Brazil, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, India
Global modelling: Uncertainty/Sensitivity analysis (Ensembles)
• Assumptions about food/energy demand, land availability, land use
change, technological change
Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (2)
"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"
Household modelling
• Introduce bioenergy production and other mitigation options to
household models
• Production decisions under new prices/cost structures
• Food security beyond calories; livelihoods
• Local energy security/availability (traditional biomass)
Challenges
• Linking annual to decadal time scales
Outcome
• Chances and risks of climate mitigation on food security
• Livelihood impacts at household level
• Options for improving governance / institutions (e.g. land tenure,
compensation payments)
• Accounting of carbon, water use, emissions
• Investment needs in agricultural R&D
Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (3)
"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"
CCAFS/ESSP science value
• CCAFS: link to IAM, energy sector scenarios, land use change,
emission accounting
• ESSP: "grounding" of global models with local processes/constraints
• Linking physiology, technology, economics, governance
Development value
• Chances for agriculture/food security: new markets, income,
diversification, synergies between adaptation and mitigation
• Risks for agriculture/food security: competition for land, water,
livestock feed
Structural value for Ag. science in CCAFS
• Models as structuring elements for distributed studies
• Linking and using distributed data
CC science value
• More realistic assessment of mitigation options
• Synergies/trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation
Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (4)
"Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation"
Link to stakeholders
• Policy-making: energy/climate policy, ag. policy, spatial planning
• Strategic research planning/investment
• Ag. Extension
Partners:
• CCAFS:
• ESSP:
IFPRI, ILRI, ICRAF, CIFOR, others?
PIK, IIASA, PBL, others?
Funding sources:
• GIZ/BEAF call, March 2012
• EU FP7?
• Foundations?