To appreciate this presentation [and insure that it is not a mess], you need Microsoft fonts: NOTE: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” To appreciate this presentation, you need Microsoft fonts: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” NOTE: Master* Excellence part two (of 7) innovate. Or. Die. 18 june 2007 To appreciate this presentation, you need Microsoft fonts: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” NOTE: Master Excellence. Always. part one (of 7) “all you need to know” (dwelling on the obvious) not your father’s world introduction to excellence. 18 june 2007 To appreciate this presentation, you need Microsoft fonts: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” NOTE: Master/ Excellence. Always./ part THREE (of 7) up, up, up, up … the value added ladder (solutions-experiences-dreams-lovemarks) 18 June 2007 To appreciate this presentation, you need Microsoft fonts: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” NOTE: Master/ Excellence. Always./ part FOUR (of 7) “new” Markets (Stupendous Opportunity) 18 June 2007 To appreciate this presentation, you need Microsoft fonts: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” NOTE: Master Excellence. Always. part FIVE (of 7) people! (Brand you. Talent. Health. Education. Leadership.) 18 june 2007 To appreciate this presentation, you need Microsoft fonts: “Showcard Gothic,” “Ravie,” “Chiller” and “Verdana” NOTE: Master* Excellence part SIX (of 7) excellence. summaries. Lists. 18 june 2007 Part seven Extended Talent & Leadership 0618.07 part two Slides at … tompeters.com NOTE: amidst today’s unprecedented market turmoil, innovation is arguably and without exaggeration “everything”—for the small, medium and large enterprise. And public and non-profit entities as much as forprofit enterprises. Moreover, transformative innovation appears nigh on impossible for giant entities—which makes one wonder why so many “bulk up” in an effort to cope. (In a word … stupidity.) Tom Peters’ X25* EXCELLENCE. ALWAYS. MASTER/0618.2007/Part TWO *In Search of Excellence 1982-2007 EXCELLENCE. INNOVATE. OR. DIE. EXCELLENCE. INNOVATE. AXIOMATIC. “To grow, companies need to break out of a vicious cycle of competitive benchmarking and imitation.” —W. Chan Kim & Renée Mauborgne, “Think for Yourself — Stop Copying a Rival,” Financial Times Characteristics of the “Also rans”* “Minimize risk” “Respect the chain of command” “Support the boss” “Make budget” *Fortune, article on “Most Admired Global Corporations” EXCELLENCE. INNOVATION. THE REAL STORY. Tom Peters/03.29.2007 The Perils of Conservatism/ Industry Leadership “ ‘Good management’ was the most powerful reason [leading firms] failed to stay atop their industries. Precisely because these firms listened to their customers, invested aggressively in technologies that would provide their customers more and better products of the sort they wanted, and because they carefully studied market trends and systematically allocated investment capital to innovations that promised the best returns, they lost their positions of leadership.” —Clayton Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma EVERYTHING YOU THOUGHT YOU KNEW ABOUT INNOVATION IS WRONG What “We” Know “For Sure” About Innovation Big mergers [by & large] don’t work Scale is over-rated Strategic planning is the last refuge of scoundrels Focus groups are counter-productive “Built to last” is a chimera (stupid) Success kills “Forgetting” is impossible Re-imagine is a charming idea “Orderly innovation process” is an oxymoronic phrase (= Believed only by morons with ox-like brains) “Tipping points” are easy to identify … long after they will do you any good “Facts” aren’t All information making it to the top is filtered to the point of danger and hilarity “Success stories” are the illusions of egomaniacs (and “gurus”) If you believe the memoirs of CEOs you should be institutionalized “Herd behavior” (XYZ is “hot”) is ubiquitous … and amusing “Top teams” are “Dittoheads” CEOs have little effect on performance “Expert” prediction is rarely better than rolling the dice The Mess Is The Message! Period! What makes God laugh? People making plans! What makes tom laugh? “Gurus” (and once- famous CEOs) giving LLLs (logical linear on “systems”* of innovation! lectures) *especially with lots of charts and graphs and Greek mathematical symbols and little tiny numbers The Mess Is The Message! Period! NOTE: few ideas are more important— and more honored in the breach. Innovation is MESSY to the extreme. Such an assertion (reality!) determines the success of innovation “strategies,” perhaps the wrong word. This unfolding “story” is one of the most important in my efforts to alter enterprise thinking. Try it. Try it. Try it ry it. Try it. Screw up. Try it. Try it. Try t. Try it. Try it. Try t. Try it. Screw it up t. Try it. Try it. try Get mad. Do something about it. Now. The “5Ps” of Innovation Success: Pissed-off-ed-ness Passion pals Politics [Political skill] Persistence “Recently I asked three corporate executives what decisions they had made in the last year that would not have been made were it not for their corporate plans. All had difficulty identifying one such decision. Since all of the plans are marked ‘secret’ or ‘confidential,’ I asked them how their competitors might benefit from possession of their plans. Each answered with embarrassment that their competitors would not benefit.” —Russell Ackoff (from Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning) 21C = -1c The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning Trip #1: “Recently I asked several corporate executives what decisions they had made in the last year that would not have been made were it not for their All had difficulty identifying one such decision. corporate plans. Since all of the plans are marked ‘secret’ or ‘confidential,’ I asked them how their competitors might benefit from possession of their plans. Each answered with embarrassment that their competitors would not benefit.” —Russell Ackoff (from Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning) An Economic Interpretation of the Constitution of the United States —Charles Beard (1913) The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger —Marc Levinson Tube: The Invention of Television —David & Marshall Fisher Empires of Light: Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse, and the Race to Electrify the World —Jill Jonnes The Soul of a New Machine —Tracy Kidder Rosalind Franklin: The Dark Lady of DNA —Brenda Maddox The Blitzkrieg Myth —John Mosier “Containerization is a remarkable achievement. No one foresaw how the box would transform everything it touched—from ships and ports to patterns of global trade. Containerization is a monument to the most powerful law in economics, that of unanticipated consequences. … This history ought to be humbling to fans of modern management methods. Careful planning and thorough analysis, those business school basics, may have their place, but they provide little guidance in the face of disruptive changes that alter an industry’s very fundamentals.” —Marc Levinson, FT, 0425.06 (author of The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger) “Recently I asked three corporate executives what decisions they had made in the last year that would not have been made were it not for their corporate plans. All had difficulty identifying one such decision. Since all of the plans are marked ‘secret’ or ‘confidential,’ I asked them how their competitors might benefit from possession of their plans. Each answered with embarrassment that their competitors would not benefit.” —Russell Ackoff (from Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning) Lessons Need-driven A thousand “parents” Messy Evolutionary “Trivial” Relentless Experimentation Trial & many, many eRRORs “Real heroes” seldom around when the battle is won Loooong time for systemic adaptation/s (many innovations) (bill of lading, standard time) Not … “Plan-driven” The product of “Strategic Thinking/Planning” The product of “focus groups” Discover, by accident, “blue ocean” [women’s financial needs]! Ignore your [Dean Witter] boss! Sell 750,000 copies of your latest book to Wells Fargo Home Mortgage! Source: the David Bach story, including Smart Women Finish Rich, per IBD (01.08.07) What “We” Know “For Sure” About Innovation Big mergers [by & large] don’t work Scale is over-rated Strategic planning is the last refuge of scoundrels Focus groups are counter-productive “Built to last” is a chimera (stupid) Success kills “Forgetting” is impossible Re-imagine is a charming idea “Orderly innovation process” is an oxymoronic phrase (= Believed only by morons with ox-like brains) “Tipping points” are easy to identify … long after they will do you any good “Facts” aren’t All information making it to the top is filtered to the point of danger and hilarity “Success stories” are the illusions of egomaniacs (and “gurus”) If you believe the memoirs of CEOs you should be institutionalized “Herd behavior” (XYZ is “hot”) is ubiquitous … and amusing “Top teams” are “Dittoheads” CEOs have little effect on performance “Expert” prediction is rarely better than rolling the dice “We are in a brawl with no rules.” —Paul Allaire Paul Allaire: “We are in a brawl with no rules.” TP: “There’s only one possible answer—S.A.V.”* *Screw Around Vigorously Axiom: “We are in a brawl with no rules.” (PA) Implication: “The world will not be kind to those who ‘play by the rules’.”* (TP) Strategy: S.A.V./R.F.A. (RP/TP+) *Axiom: The microprocessor plays by the rules. First-level Scientific Success: Beyond Brains First-level Scientific Success The smartest guy in the room wins” Or … First-level Scientific Success Fanaticism Persistence-Dogged Tenacity Patience (long haul/decades)-Impatience (in a hurry/”do it yesterday”) Passion Energy Relentlessness (Grant-ian) Enthusiasm Driven (nuts!) (Brutal?) Competitiveness Entrepreneurial Pragmatic (R.F!A.) Scrounge (“gets” the logistics-infrastructure bit) Master of Politics (internal-external) Tactical Genius Pursuit of (Oceanic) Excellence! High EQ/Skillful in Attracting + Keeping Talent/Magnetic Prolific (“ground up more pig brains”) Egocentric Sense of History-Destiny Futuristic-In the Moment Mono-dimensional (“Work-life balance”? Ha!) Exceptionally Intelligent Exceptionally Clever (methodological shortcuts/methodological genius) Luck Blitzkrieg? Case: Reality Germans cross Meuse into France. Whoops: French intelligence completely drops the ball. (Loses track of the Germans—no kidding.) Germans keep advancing; outrun supply lines; no land-air co-ordination. Hitler orders advance stopped. General never gets the word. General marches to Paris, virtually unopposed. Germans shocked. After the fact, Germans label it “Blitzkrieg.” Case: Lessons Learned Do something. Get lucky. Attribute luck to superior planning. Get medals. “Blitzkrieg in fact emerged in a rather haphazard way from the experience of the French campaign, whose success surprised the Germans as much as the French. Why otherwise did the High Command try on several occasions, with Hitler’s backing, to slow the panzers down. … The victory in France partly came about because the German High Command temporarily lost control of the battle.” —Julian Jackson, The Fall of France: The Nazi Invasion of 1940 Utterback+ “A pattern emphasized in the case studies in this book is the degree to which powerful competitors not only resist innovative threats, but actually resist all efforts to understand them, preferring to further their positions in older products. This results in a surge of productivity and performance that may take the old technology to unheard of heights. But in most cases this is a sign of impending death.” —Jim Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation “Apparently our society, not unlike the Greeks with their Delphic oracles, takes great comfort in believing that very talent ‘seers’ removed from the hurlyburly world of reality can tell foretell coming events.” —Len Sayles/Columbia The Perils of Conservatism/ Industry Leadership “ ‘Good management’ was the most powerful reason [leading firms] failed to stay atop their industries. Precisely because these firms listened to their customers, invested aggressively in technologies that would provide their customers more and better products of the sort they wanted, and because they carefully studied market trends and systematically allocated investment capital to innovations that promised the best returns, they lost their positions of leadership.” —Clayton Christensen, The Innovator’s Dilemma “The most thoughtful and articulate strategies tend to come from big banks. But their actual results seldom bear that out. When you walk the streets and look at what’s happening, the gap between strategy and execution becomes obvious. We have to see with our own eyes what customers are experiencing.” —Thomas Brown, CEO, Second Curve Capital [hedge fund] , on their annual “branch hunt” “Mr Brown’s favorite experience came at a Chase branch where he opened a checking account. When a Chase employee asked where he currently did business, he said he was a Citibank customer. ‘I’m surprised you want to switch,’ she replied matter of factly, ‘I have my account at Citibank.” —Bill Taylor, “Get Out of That Rut and Into the Shower,” NYT, 0813.06 “Hard” Stuff/ Science: 20% “Soft” Stuff/ Politics: 80% “Hard” Stuff/Analysis & planning: 25% “Soft” Stuff/people & Politics & Passion & execution: 75% “Peters is the Michel Foucault of the management world: a scourge of the rationalist tradition and a celebrant of the creative necessity of chaos and craziness.” —Financial Times, 09.23.2003, review of Re-imagine! (“You Should Be Bonkers in a Bonkers’ Time”) “Most of our predictions are based on very linear thinking. That’s why they will most likely be wrong.” Vinod Khosla, in “GIGATRENDS,” Wired 04.01 Tom’s source code: The eight iconic books which are the Wellsprings of my operating values and core assumptions 05.22.07 Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We know? Philip Tetlock The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies, Scott Page The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki. Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin, Stephen Jay Gould Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky. Daniel A Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and Deceives, Cordelia Fine “This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, generally precise reason.” Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets, Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb “A fox, the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of disciplines, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events, is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill defined problems.” Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We know? Philip Tetlock The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies , Scott Page . “Diverse groups of problem solvers—groups of people with diverse tools— consistently outperformed groups of the best and the brightest. If I formed two groups, one random (and therefore diverse) and one consisting of the best individual performers, the first group almost always did better. … Diversity trumped ability.” The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki. Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin, Stephen Jay Gould Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky. “Your brain has some shifty habits that leave the truth distorted and disguised. Your brain is vainglorious. It’s emotional and immoral. It deludes you. It is pigheaded, secretive and weak willed. Oh, and its also a bigot.” A Mind of Its Own: How Your Brain Distorts and Deceives , Cordelia Fine The (Strange) Case of Peter Drucker & Michael Porter vs. The “Non-linearists” HERBERT SIMON. (Administrative Behavior.) JAMES MARCH. KARL WEICK. (The Social Psychology of Organizing.) EUGENE WEBB. Henry MINTZBERG. (The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning.) JAMES UTTERBACK. THOMAS KUHN. (The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.) CHARLES LINDBLOM. Daniel goleman. INNOVATION BIOGRAPHERS.* (*Transcontinental Railroad, Electrification, Radio, Television, Containerization, DNA, MOST POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. SILICON VALLEY. Etc. Computers, Military History, Etc.) An Economic Interpretation of the Constitution of the United States —Charles Beard (1913) The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger —Marc Levinson Tube: The Invention of Television —David & Marshall Fisher Empires of Light: Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse, and the Race to Electrify the World —Jill Jonnes The Soul of a New Machine —Tracy Kidder Rosalind Franklin: The Dark Lady of DNA —Brenda Maddox The Blitzkrieg Myth —John Mosier Containerization was 50 last year. The story of its development is a “thriller” by any standard—and a brilliant exemplar of the tortuous path from inkling to reality. NOTE: Happy 50! 26April2006 Lessons Need-driven A thousand “parents” Messy Evolutionary “Trivial” Relentless Experimentation Trial & many, many eRRORs “Real heroes” seldom around when the battle is won Loooong time for systemic adaptation/s (many innovations) (bill of lading, standard time) Not … “Plan-driven” The product of “Strategic Thinking/Planning” The product of “focus groups” “Containerization is a remarkable achievement. No one foresaw how the box would transform everything it touched—from ships and ports to patterns of global trade. Containerization is a monument to the most powerful law in economics, that of unanticipated consequences. … This history ought to be humbling to fans of modern management methods. Careful planning and thorough analysis, those business school basics, may have their place, but they provide little guidance in the face of disruptive changes that alter an industry’s very fundamentals.” —Marc Levinson, FT, 0425.06 (author of The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger) Get mad. Do something about it. Now. The “5Ps” of Innovation Success: Pissed-off-ed-ness Passion pals Politics [Political skill] Persistence The Mess Is The Message! Period! Ubiquitous “Politics” Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets —Nassim Nicholas Taleb “This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, generally precise reason.” “We underestimate the share of randomness in just about everything, a point that might not merit a book—except when it is the specialist who is the fool of all fools.” “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.” Source: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets —Nassim Nicholas Taleb “[Eisenhower] chafed miserably as General MacArthur’s aide in the Philippines, and in the end was promoted to lieutenant colonel only because General George C. Marshall remembered him, from years of inspecting dreary peacetime army bases, as the best bridge player in the U.S. Army.” —Ulysses S. Grant, Michael Korda “A man of great mediocrity.” —General George Patton about General Omar Bradley …… “A third-rate general. He never did anything or won any battle that any other general could not have won as well or better.” —General Omar Bradley about Sir Bernard Montgomery …… “If you want to end the war in any reasonable time, you will have to remove Ike’s hand from the control of the land battle.” —Sir Bernard Montgomery about General Dwight Eisenhower …… “One thing that might help win this war is to get someone to shoot King.” —General Dwight Eisenhower about Admiral Ernest King …… “Eisenhower, though supposed to be running the land war, is on the golf links at Rhiems—entirely detached and taking practically no part in running the war.” —Sir Alan Brooke …… “If the unhelpful British attitude continues, then I shall go home.” —General Dwight Eisenhower Source: David Irving, The War Between the Generals: Inside the Allied High Command P = .0004* [Residual] *4/10,000 [.02 X .02] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb 1982 (-) = 200 Years (+) 1982/Default Latin America = years 200 [Total historical earnings] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb This book will (should!) TP: change your life. Siegfried and Roy = 1,000X [gambling variability] The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb 10/50/50* *10 days in 50 years = 50% returns The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb Forget: Normal Distributions, Means + Medians + Modes + Standard Deviation Banking: 3 = R.O.H.: 1982/Default Latin America = Total historical earnings; 1992/S & L; 2002/dot.com Las Vegas: Siegfried and Roy, 1,000X plus a handful of others = gambling variability 10 Wall Street: “In the last 50 years, the most extreme days in the financial markets represent half of the returns. Ten days in 50 years. Meanwhile, we are mired in chitchat.” The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb EXCELLENCE. INNOVATE. OR. DIE. More than $$$$ R&D spending, last 25 years? BIG??? EXCELLENCE? “I am often asked by would-be entrepreneurs seeking escape from life within huge corporate structures, ‘How do I build a small firm for Buy a very large one and just wait.” myself?’ The answer seems obvious: —Paul Ormerod, Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics You don’t get better by being bigger. You Dick Kovacevich: Scale? “Microsoft’s Struggle With Scale” —Headline, FT, 09.2005 “Troubling Exits at Microsoft” —Cover Story, BW, 09.2005 “Too Big to Move Fast?” —Headline, BW, 09.2005 “[Dell’s] predicament may be intractable. Dell remained slavishly loyal to its core idea of ultra-efficient supply-chain management and direct sales to customers, even as rivals have stepped up their game. … Instead of adapting, critics say, Dell cut costs in ways that compromised customer service and, possibly, product quality.” —BW, 0904 “They’re a one-trick pony. It was a great trick for over 10 years.” —tech exec/BW “Dell’s culture is not inspirational or aspirational. This is when they need to be imaginative, but [Dell’s] culture only wants to talk about execution.” —Geoffrey Moore “There are some organizations where people think they’re a hero if they invent a new thing. Being a hero at Dell means saving money.” —Kevin Rollins, CEO “Despite a decade of banking mergers, there is no evidence that big banks are any more efficient or profitable than their smaller rivals.” —Financial Times, 0329, on possible Barclays-ABN Amro merger (“When it comes to asking the stock market whether bigger banks are better, the current answer is a resounding ‘no.” —Citigroup analysis, 2006) “The frugal times forced [BA] to focus on being profitable rather than big.” TP/Duh: —Economist, 04.28.07 “Not a single company that qualified as having made a sustained transformation ignited its leap with a big acquisition or merger. Moreover, comparison companies—those that failed to make a leap or, if they did, failed to sustain it—often tried to make themselves great with a big acquisition or merger. They failed to grasp the simple truth that while you can buy your way to growth, you cannot buy your way to greatness.” —Jim Collins/Time/2004 “When asked to name just one big merger that had lived up to expectations, Leon Cooperman, former cochairman of Goldman Sachs’ Investment Policy Committee, I’m sure there are success stories out there, but at this moment I draw a blank.” answered: —Mark Sirower, The Synergy Trap “MERGERS: Why Most Big Deals Don’t Pay Off. A BusinessWeek analysis shows that 61% of buyers destroyed shareholder wealth.” —BusinessWeek “Mergers and acquisitions get the headlines, but studies show they often end up destroying shareholder value instead of creating it. That’s one reason why organic growth is so prized by corporations and investors. In fact, if you compare the stock performance of a new index of 23 companies that are masters of organic growth to the S&P500, the Organic Growth Index beat the S&P500 handily, 31% vs. 22% over the year ending January 2004. And looking further back at a five-year period ending in 2002, the OGI walloped the S&P500, 25% vs. 3%.” —Fortune.com/06.03.2004 (The OGI includes Wal*Mart, Sysco, Harley-Davidson, Bed, Bath & Beyond, NVR) “Almost every personal friend I have in the world works on Wall Street. You can buy and sell the same company six times and everybody makes but I’m not sure we’re actually innovating. … Our challenge is to money, take nanotechnology into the future, to do personalized medicine …” —Jeff Immelt/2005 Mission impossible? $36B/’98 minus $675M/‘07 Daimler. And Dumb. Both Start with “d.” “Marriage in heaven” —Daimler- Benz and Chrysler exchange vows, circa 1998 (Jürgen Schrempp) “the divorce on earth” —Daimler exec, circa 2007, on probable Cerberus private equity purchase of Chrysler from Daimler “Schrempp is one of the last dinosaurs of Germany Inc. He represents a strategy of acquiring assets and building empires that just didn’t work.” —Arndt Ellinghorst, analyst, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein “His bets went sour one by one.” —WSJ on Jürgen Schrempp’s conglomeration (05.15.2007) “Obviously, we overestimated the potential for synergies.” —Dieter Zetsche, CEO, Daimler DaimlerChrysler/’98-’07: Duh, Duh, Duh, Duh and … Duh Manifold Synergies/No Severe Scale limits/Yes Culture clashes/Yes Rushmorean ego issues/Yes Customer acceptance /No “Mr Zetsche, head of Chrysler from 2000 to 2005, denied he should take any responsibility for the U.S. carmaker’s troubles …” —Financial Times /05.29.07 “Mr Zetsche, head of Chrysler from 2000 denied any to 2005, take he should responsibility for the U.S. carmaker’s troubles …” —Financial Times /05.29.07 Daimler. And Dumb. Both Start with “d.” $10,000,000/Day the loss in value in the 8 years of daimler ownership of chrysler has been about ten million dollars … per day. NOTE: big. And bozo. Both Start with “b.” “I am often asked by would-be entrepreneurs seeking escape from life within huge corporate structures, ‘How do I build a small firm for Buy a very large one and just wait.” myself?’ The answer seems obvious: —Paul Ormerod, Why Most Things Fail: Evolution, Extinction and Economics You don’t get better by being bigger. You get worse.” Dick Kovacevich: cool. And Connecticut. Both Start with “c.” Basement Systems Inc. *Basement Systems Inc./Larry Janesky * Dry Basement Science (115,000!) *2006: $50,000,000+ “Conglomerates don’t work.” —James Surowiecki, The New Yorker Did one of ’em ever turn to the other and say: “Wow, I wonder what unimaginable new tools, otherwise not possible, will be brought forth for my daughter Alice, age 17, because of this deal?” Did one of ’em ever turn to the other and say: “Wow I wonder what unimaginable new tools, otherwise not possible, will be quickly brought forth for our customers because of this deal?” “These days, everybody wants to merge. Too often they’re just blindly gobbling up as many players as they can, in the false belief that bigger has to be better. It kind of makes you wonder if merger-mania isn’t really ego- mania. Or something even more destructive. If you look at it objectively, most mergers do not revitalize companies. Rather, they provide short-term gains for a relatively small group of people, usually Wall Street bankers and lawyers.” —Lee Iacocca, Where Have All the Leaders Gone? Spinoffs systematically perform better than IPOs … track record, profits … “freed from the confines of the parent … more entrepreneurial, more nimble” —Jerry Knight/ Washington Post/ 08.05 Market Share, Anyone? — 240 industries: Marketshare leader is ROA leader 29% of the time — Profit /ROA leaders: “aggressively weed out customers who generate low returns” Source: Donald V. Potter, Wall Street Journal “Acquisitions are about buying market share. Our challenge is to create markets. There is a big difference.” —Peter Job, former CEO, Reuters There’s “A” and then there’s “A.” Winning the Merger Game Is Possible --Lots of deals --Little deals --Friendly deals --Stay close to core competence --Strategy is easy to understand Source: “The Mega-merger Mouse Trap”/Wall Street Journal/02.17.2004 / David Harding & Sam Rovit, Bain & Co./re Comcast-Disney TP on Acquisitions 1. Big + Big = Disaster. (Statistically.) 2. Big (GE, Cisco, Omnicom) acquires small/specialist = Good … if you can retain Top Talent. 3. Odds on achieving “projected synergies” among Mixed Big “cultures”: 10%. 4. Max Scale Advantages are achieved at a smaller size than imagined. 5. Attacked by Big, Mediocre Medium marries Mediocre Medium to “bulk up.” Result: Big Mediocrity … or worse. 6. Increasingly, Alliances deliver more value than mergers—and clearly abet flexibility. Private Equity-financed Firm, Best *Case *Focus! Focus! Focus! *In a [Big] hurry *CEO/Top team, “skin in the game” *CEO, 100% of time on the biz *Merit! Merit! *Motivated oversight *Worst case: Rape & Pillage The “New German Miracle”* = The “Old German Miracle” = Mittlestand** *Among other things, #1 in exports **”No doubt of it, tom [BASF exec/04.07] InnoTacs “Acquisitions are about buying market share. Our challenge is to create markets. There is a big difference.” —Peter Job, former CEO, Reuters Characteristics of the “Also rans”* “Minimize risk” “Respect the chain of command” “Support the boss” “Make budget” *Fortune, article on “Most Admired Global Corporations” “Companies have defined so much ‘best practice’ that they are now more or less identical.” —Jesper Kunde, Unique Now ... Or Never “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” —Charles Darwin InnoTacs revenue matters most The Commerce Bank Model “cost cutting is a death spiral.” Source: Fans! Not customers. How Commerce Bank Created a Super-growth Business in a No-growth Industry, Vernon Hill & Bob Andelman “Our whole story is growing revenue.” —Vernon Hill (Top-line driven; standard is bottom-line driven by cost cutting) The Commerce Bank Model “over-invest in our people, over-invest in our facilities.” Source: Fans! Not customers. How Commerce Bank Created a Super-growth Business in a No-growth Industry, Vernon Hill & Bob Andelman C *Chief O* Revenue Officer We become who we hang out with 1 Measure “Strangeness”/Portfolio Quality Staff Consultants Vendors Out-sourcing Partners (#, Quality) Innovation Alliance Partners Customers Competitors (who we “benchmark” against) Strategic Initiatives Product Portfolio (LineEx v. Leap) IS/IT Projects HQ Location Lunch Mates Language Board “Future-defining customers may account for only 2% to 3% of your total, CUSTOMERS: but they represent a crucial window on the future.” Adrian Slywotzky, Mercer Consultants Axiom: Never use a vendor who is not in the top quartile (decile?) in their industry on R&D spending!* *Inspired by Hummingbird “The best swordsman in the world doesn’t need to fear the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be COMPETITORS: afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesn’t do the thing he ought to do, and so the expert isn’t prepared for him; he does the thing he ought not to do and often it catches the expert out and ends him on the spot.” —Mark Twain “How do dominant companies lose their position? Two- thirds of the time, they pick the wrong competitor to worry about.” —Don Listwin, CEO, Openwave Systems/WSJ Kodak …. Fuji GM …. Ford Ford …. GM IBM …. Siemens, Fujitsu Sears …. Kmart Xerox …. Kodak, IBM “Portfol-io Thinking” Big Idea/s V.C. G.M. Portfolio Roster [Venture Capitalist] [General Mgr/Pro Sports] “Diverse groups of problem solvers— groups of people with diverse tools— consistently outperformed groups of the best and the brightest. If I formed two groups, one random (and therefore diverse) and one consisting of the best individual performers, the first group almost always did better. … Diversity trumped ability.” —Scott Page, The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools, and Societies Diversity Portfolios/Weirdness Index V.C. Micro-acquisitions Wee J.V.s Butterflies Behavior Levers “small wins” Parallel Universe/s Skunkworks F.F.F.F. B.F.A. R.F.A. f.r.a. R.F.F.F. F.F.F.R. f.f.f. Prototype Mania Portfolios/Weirdness Index V.C. Micro-acquisitions Wee J.V.s Butterflies Behavior Levers “small wins” Parallel Universe/s Skunkworks F.F.F.F. [Find a Fellow Freak Far away] B.F.A. [bias for action] R.F.A. [ready. Fire. aim,.] f.r.a. [fire. Ready. Aim.] R.F.F.F. [ready. Fire. Fire. Fire.] F.F.F.R. [fire. Fire. Fire. Ready.] f.f.f. [fail. Forward. Fast.] Prototype Mania The “Hang Out Axiom”: At its core, every (!!!) relationship-partnership decision (employee, vendor, customer, etc) is a strategic decision about: “Innovate, ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ ” Why Do I love Freaks? (1) Because when Anything Interesting happens … it was a freak who did it. (Period.) (2) Freaks are fun. (Freaks are also a pain.) (Freaks are never boring.) (3) We need freaks. Especially in freaky times. (Hint: These are freaky times, for you & me & the CIA & the Army & Avon.) (4) A critical mass of freaks-in-our-midst automatically make us-who-are-not-so-freaky at least somewhat more freaky. (Which is a Good Thing in freaky times—see immediately above.) (5) Freaks are the only (ONLY) ones who succeed—as in, make it into the history books. (6) Freaks keep us from falling into ruts. (If we listen to them.) (We seldom listen to them.) (Which is why most organizations are in ruts. Make that chasms.) Get mad. Do something about it. Now. “Dreaming,” necessary, or not? TP, personal: “dream” = concrete, practical imaginings about the opposite of things that piss me off (TP “advantages”: low boiling point, long memory) “I’ve been thinking …” Michael Porter: “I’m mad as hell, and I’m not going to take it anymore” TP: F(Anger/Passion) >>>> f(Pushback from Threatened Fat-cats & Bureau-crats) Pissed Off* *Innovation is Initiated by Irritation. Re-imagining Results from Rage. GSK: 7 “CEDDs” … Centers of Excellence for Drug Discovery “Normal” = “o for 800” “There’s nothing worse than being ordinary” —Mena Suvari/American Beauty Semmelweis … Lister ECS … SBA Stokely … MLKjr (TJP … RHWjr) C O* *Chief freaks acquisition Officer “You’re either going to be a millionaire or going to jail.” —Richard Branson’s Headmaster* (* “He did both.”—New Yorker) Innovation’s Saviors-in-Waiting Disgruntled Customers Off-the-Scope Competitors Rogue Employees Fringe Suppliers Wayne Burkan, Wide Angle Vision: Beat the Competition by Focusing on Fringe Competitors, Lost Customers, and Rogue Employees Keep Austin Weird We become who we hang out with “The Bottleneck Is at the Top of the Bottle” “Where are you likely to find people with the least diversity of experience, the largest investment in the past, and the greatest reverence for industry dogma: At the top!” — Gary Hamel/Harvard Business Review futuremark “To grow, companies need to break out of a vicious cycle of competitive benchmarking and imitation.” —W. Chan Kim & Renée Mauborgne, “Think for Yourself —Stop Copying a Rival,” Financial Times/2003 “How do dominant companies lose their position? Two- thirds of the time, they pick the wrong competitor to worry about.” —Don Listwin, CEO, Openwave Systems/WSJ Kodak …. Fuji GM …. Ford Ford …. GM IBM …. Siemens, Fujitsu Sears …. Kmart Xerox …. Kodak, IBM “Don’t benchmark, futuremark!” Impetus: “The future is already here; it’s just not evenly distributed” —William Gibson Portfolio Thinking G.M. V.C. M.B.S.A. (Brand Yous) (Wow Projects!) (Demos. Heroes. Stories.) We become who we hang out with 1A The “Jay Team” * *Allen Puckett’s “University of Weird” Tp “caves” : Thinkers/ “Thinkers Tank” … not “Strategic Planners” (a little) We become who we hang out with 2 “How do dominant companies lose their position? Two- thirds of the time, they pick the wrong competitor to worry about.” —Don Listwin, CEO, Openwave Systems/WSJ “Don’t benchmark … futuremark!” Impetus: “The future is already here; it’s just not evenly distributed” —William Gibson We become who we hang out with 3 Whacky WikiWo rldWow Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything —Don Tapscott & Anthony Williams “The Billion-man Research Team: Companies offering work to online communities are reaping the benefits of ‘crowdsourcing.’” —Headline, FT, 0110.07 Wikinomics WikiWorld Weapons of Mass collaboration CrowdSourcing smart mobs Linux Human genome project InnoCentive YouTube Second Life Wikipedia Myspace Rob McEwen/CEO/ Goldcorp Inc./ Red Lake gold Source: Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything, Don Tapscott & Anthony Williams A New “C-Level? C W *Chief WikiWorld Officer O* “There’s a fundamental shift in power happening. Everywhere, people are getting together and, using the Internet, disrupting whatever activities they’re involved in.” —Pierre Omidyar, founder, eBay Focus Groups: No! Continuing Conversations: Yes! Planners vs Searchers “Where planners * raise high expectations but take no responsibility for meeting them, searchers prefer to work case-by-case, using trial and error to tailor solutions to individual problems, fully aware that most remedies must be homegrown.” —WSJ, 0822.06 (on malaria eradication, and hedge fund manager Lance Laifer) [*“Planners [WHO, World Bank, etc] see poverty as a technical engineering problem that their answers will solve.” —William Easterly] “All sorts of approaches need to be tried and we need feedback.” —Roger Bate Find ’em! “Somewhere in your organization, groups of people are already doing things differently and better. To create lasting change, find these areas of positive deviance and fan the flames.” —Richard Pascale & Jerry Sternin, “Your Company’s Secret Change Agents,” HBR F(Anger/Passion) >>>> f(Pushback from Threatened Fat-cats & Bureau-crats) “Some people look for things that went wrong and try to fix them. I look for things that went right, and try to build off them.” —Bob Stone (Mr ReGo) Stories … Paint me a picture … Story “infrastructure” … Demos … Quick prototypes … Experiments … Heroes … Renegades … Skunkworks … Demo Funds … V.C. … G.M. … Roster … Portfolio … Stone’s Rules … JKC’s Rules Demos! Heroes! Stories! The “Sri Lanka Stratagem” Forward, march: “Never doubt that a small group of committed people can change the world. Indeed it is the only thing that ever has.” —Margaret Mead Portfolio Thinking G.M. V.C. M.B.S.A. (Brand Yous) (Wow Projects!) (Demos. Heroes. Stories.) Find ’em! Innovation “Tool”/“Source” # 1: Pissed Off Person/ People A fury that the future was always being hijacked by people with smaller ideas —by his “What drove Trippe? first partners who did not want to expand airmail routes; by nations that protected flag carriers with subsidies; by the elitists who regarded flight, like luxury liners, as a privilege that could only be enjoyed by the few; by the cartel operators who rigged prices. The democratization he effected was as real as Henry Ford’s.” —Harold Evans on Juan Trippe, the PanAm boss who brought the B747 to life (WSJ/02.24.2005) invite ’em! “In the end, management doesn’t change culture. Management invites the workforce itself to change the culture.” —Lou Gerstner “If I could have chosen not to tackle the IBM culture head-on, I probably wouldn’t have. My bias coming in was toward strategy, analysis and measurement. In comparison, changing the attitude and behaviors of hundreds of thousands [Yet] I came to see in my time at IBM that culture isn’t just one aspect of the game— it is the game.” —Lou Gerstner, of people is very, very hard. Who Says Elephants Can’t Dance “[Dell’s] predicament may be intractable. Dell remained slavishly loyal to its core idea of ultra-efficient supply-chain management and direct sales to customers, even as rivals have stepped up their game. … Instead of adapting, critics say, Dell cut costs in ways that compromised customer service and, possibly, product quality.” —BW, 0904 “They’re a one-trick pony. It was a great trick for over 10 years.” —tech exec/BW “Dell’s culture is not inspirational or aspirational. This is when they need to be imaginative, but [Dell’s] culture only wants to talk about execution.” —Geoffrey Moore “There are some organizations where people think they’re a hero if they invent a new thing. Being a hero at Dell means saving money.” —Kevin Rollins, CEO send ’em on a quest! Leaders-Teachers Do Not “Transform People”! Instead leaders-mentors-teachers (1) provide a context which is marked by (2) access to a luxuriant portfolio of meaningful opportunities (projects) which (3) allow people to fully (and safely, mostly—caveat: “they” don’t engage unless they’re “mad about something”) express their innate curiosity and (4) engage in a vigorous discovery voyage (alone and in small teams, assisted by an extensive self-constructed network) by which those people (5) go to-create places they (and their mentors-teachersleaders) had never dreamed existed —and then the leaders-mentors-teachers (6) applaud like hell, stage “photo-ops,” and ring the church bells 100 times to commemorate the bravery of their “followers’ ” explorations! Organizing Genius / Warren Bennis and Patricia Ward Biederman “Groups become great only when everyone in them, leaders and members alike, is free to do his or her absolute best.” “The best thing a leader can do for a Great Group is to allow its members to discover their greatness.” Leadership’s Mt Everest/Mt Excellence “free to do his or her absolute best” … “allow its members to discover their greatness.” “The role of the Director is to create a space where the actors and become more than they’ve ever been before, more than they’ve dreamed of being.” actresses can —Robert Altman, Oscar acceptance speech Where to look for “Playmates”: F.F.F.F. (Find a Fellow Freak Faraway) Playmate!* Playpen! Prototype! *Can be Client, supplier … as well as Insider Demos! Heroes! Stories! Women as innovation force! “Women are the majority market” —Fara Warner/The Power of the Purse 94% of loans to … women* *Microlending; “Banker to the poor”; Grameen Bank; Muhammad Yunus; 2006 Nobel Peace Prize winner Women: Principal Change Agents/ Health, family & Finance “Women don’t buy They join them.” brands. EVEolution Concoct a Parallel universe! “Parallel Universe” … China!!!!!!! “Venture” fund: Gerstner/Amex, Dow/Marriott, Grove/Intel, Bedbury/Starbucks “SkunkWorks”/ “ParallelUniverse” “the solution” Source: Scott Bedbury (Others: 3M, Google, Shell, NAVFAC) SkunkWorks/ “Skunks” (!!!) “[CEO A.G.] Lafley has shifted P&G’s focus on inventing all its own products to developing others’ inventions at least half the time. One successful example Mr. Clean Magic Eraser, based on a product found in an Osaka market.” —Fortune, 12.18.06 Build a “School on top of a school” (The Parallel Universe Strategy) “Strategic Thrust Overlay”* Sysco Microsoft (I’net, Search) GE (6-Sigma, Workout, etc.) GSK (7 CEDDs) Apple (Mac) Hyundai (et al.) (Electronics, etc.) *Different from Skunkworks Multipliers: Broken Windows Multipliers, science of/butterflies/Rat Psych 101: Broken Windows/safe city Small plates/empty shelves/remote parking lot/ distant food court/slow elevator Geologists/geophysicists Contiguous offices/Office layout-location power casual gathering places “renegade” buildings “Hang out factor”/inno #1 “hero galleries”/great art welcoming reception area (Insta-smell culture) b.P.d. decals on glasses/12.31.06 beyond escape: Bike at the door/ Running shoes next to the bed etc etc Speed/ Tempo/ is-it FedEx Economy” “the —headline/New York Times Anything/ Anywhere/ Anytime “Any3”: Wal*Mart (!) & Katrina Power Tools For Power Strategies Sysco! Go for the Bold * Bold/Aggressive/$$$$ * Bold/GameChanger * Bold/Creative Destruction * Bold/“Cool” Supplier Portfolio * Bold/Web Fanaticism “UPS used to be a trucking company Now it’s a technology company with trucks.” with technology. —Forbes 5% F500 have CIO on Board: “While some of the world’s most admired companies—Tesco, Wal*Mart —are transforming the business landscape by including technology experts on their boards, the vast majority are missing out on ways to boost productivity, competitiveness and shareholder value.” Source: Burson-Marsteller Speed/ Tempo/ o.o.d.a. loops Messin’ with their minds: He who has the quickest “O.O.D.A. Loops”* wins! *Observe. Orient. Decide. Act. /Col. John Boyd “Blitzkrieg is far more than lightning thrusts that most people think of when they hear the term; rather it was all about high operational tempo and the rapid exploitation of opportunity.” —Robert Coram, Boyd “Re-arrange the mind of the enemy” “Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee” —T.E. Lawrence —Ali BOYD: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War (Robert Coram) Try it. Try it. Try it ry it. Try it. Screw up. Try it. Try it. Try t. Try it. Try it. Try t. Try it. Screw it up t. Try it. Try it. try What makes God laugh? People making plans! “We have a ‘strategic plan.’ It’s called doing things.” — Herb Kelleher A man approached JP Morgan, held up an envelope, and said, “Sir, in my hand I hold a guaranteed formula for success, which I will gladly sell you for $25,000.” “Sir,” JP Morgan replied, “I do not know what is in the envelope, however if you show me, and I like it, I give you my word as a gentleman that I will pay you what you ask.” The man agreed to the terms, and handed over the envelope. JP Morgan opened it, and extracted a single sheet of paper. He gave it one look, a mere glance, then handed the piece of paper back to the gent. And paid him the agreed upon $25,000. 1. Every morning, write a list of the things that need to be done that day. 2. Do them. Source: Hugh MacLeod/tompeters.com/NPR “This is so simple it sounds stupid, but it is amazing how few oil people really understand that you only find oil if you drill wells. You may think you’re finding it when you’re drawing maps and studying logs, but you have to drill.” Source: The Hunters, by John Masters, Canadian O & G wildcatter “We made mistakes, of course. Most of them were omissions we didn’t think of when we initially wrote the software. We fixed them by doing it over and over, again and again. We do the same today. While our competitors are still sucking their thumbs trying to make the design perfect, we’re already on prototype version #5. By the time our rivals are ready with wires and screws, we are on version #10. It gets back to planning versus acting: We act from day one; others plan how to plan— for months.” —Bloomberg by Bloomberg “Experiment fearlessly” Source: BW0821.06, Type A Organization Strategies/ “How to Hit a Moving Target”—Tactic #1 “We ground up more pig brains!” The True Logic* of Decentralization: 6 divisions = 6 “tries” 6 divisions = 6 DIFFERENT leaders = 6 INDEPENDENT “tries” = Max probability of “win” 6 divisions = 6 very DIFFERENT leaders = 6 very INDEPENDENT “tries” = Max probability of “far out”/”3-sigma” “win” *“Driver”: Law of Large #s SERIOUS PLAY Culture of Prototyping “Effective prototyping may the most valuable core competence an be innovative organization can hope to have.” —Michael Schrage Think about It!? Innovation = Reaction to the Prototype Source: Michael Schrage “You can’t be a serious innovator unless and until you are ready, willing and able to seriously play. ‘Serious play’ is not an oxymoron; it is the essence of innovation.” —Michael Schrage, Serious Play “Learn not to be careful.” —Photographer Diane Arbus to her students (Careful = The sidelines, from Harriet Rubin in The Princessa) “The key to a great painting is the nerve, after weeks of effort, to ‘bet the painting’ on the next brush stroke,” Master musician, San Francisco Screw. things. “FAIL, FAIL AGAIN. FAIL BETTER.” —Samuel Beckett “Fail . Forward. Fast.” High Tech CEO, Pennsylvania “Fail faster. Succeed Sooner.” David Kelley/IDEO Sam’s Secret #1! “Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre successes.” Phil Daniels, Sydney exec “If people tell me they skied all day and never fell down, I tell them to try a different mountain.” —Michael Bloomberg (BW/0625.07) “In business, you reward people for taking risks. When it doesn’t work out you promote them-because they were willing to try new things. If people tell me they skied all day and never fell down, I tell them to try a different mountain.” —Michael Bloomberg (BW/0625.07) Read This! Richard Farson & Ralph Keyes: Whoever Makes the Most Mistakes Wins: The Paradox of Innovation “The Silicon Valley of today is built less atop the spires of earlier triumphs than upon the rubble of earlier debacles.”—Newsweek/ Paul Saffo “The secret of fast progress is inefficiency, fast and furious and numerous failures.” --Kevin Kelly try. Miss. READY. FIRE! “We are in a brawl with no rules.” Paul Allaire/Xerox: TP: “There’s [literally] only one Screw Around Vigorously! possible answer … RAF RFA RFFFA RFFFA … FFFFA RAAAAAAAAAAA … IID DSS* INID DSS** *If In Doubt … Do Some S$%^ (stuff) **If Not In Doubt … Do Some S%*& Life 101: A 40-year Reflection Go on offense. Give everybody a shot. Decentralize. Try a bunch of stuff. Make it up as you go along. Get some stuff wrong. Laugh a lot. Get some stuff right. Become a “success.” Extract “lessons learned” or “best practices.” Thicken the Book of Rules for Success. Become evermore serious. Enforce the rules to increasingly tight tolerances. Go on defense. Install walls. Protect-at-all-costs today’s franchise. Centralize. Calcify. Install taller walls. Write more rules. Become irrelevant and-or die. No try. No deal. “You miss 100% of the shots you never take.” —Wayne Gretzky “Intelligent people can always come up with intelligent reasons to do nothing.” —Scott Simon “Andrew Higgins , who built landing craft in WWII, refused to hire graduates of He believed that they only teach you what you can’t do in engineering school. He engineering schools. started off with 20 employees, and by the middle of the war had 30,000 working for him. He turned out 20,000 landing craft. D.D. Eisenhower told me, ‘Andrew Higgins won the war for us. He did it without engineers.’ ” —Stephen Ambrose/Fast Company Try. Try. Try. Try. try. Try. Try. Try. Try. try. Try. Try. Try. Try. try. Try. Try. Try. Try. try. Try. Try. Try. Try. Excellence1982: The Bedrock “Eight Basics” 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. A Bias for Action Close to the Customer Autonomy and Entrepreneurship Productivity Through People Hands On, Value-Driven Stick to the Knitting Simple Form, Lean Staff Simultaneous Loose-Tight Properties” Innovation: mad. Start Doing something about it. Now. Get Focus. “We will not, I repeat not, pretend to be ‘all things to all people.’” —CEO, Investec (03.06) “Miss Anthony has one idea and she has no patience with anyone who has two.” —ECS* *TP: Why SBA is on the coin? Ready. Fire! Fire! Aim. “The Milken model, in a nutshell, is to stimulate research by drastically cutting the waiting time for grant money, to flood the field with fast cash, to fund therapy-driven ideas rather than basic science, to hold researchers he funds accountable for results, and to demand collaboration across disciplines and among institutions, private industry, and academia.” —Fortune/The Business, “The Man Who Changed Medicine” The Benefits of … “FOCUSED EXCELLENCE” Shouldice/Hernia Repair: 1% recurrence. Avg: 90 min, 10%-15% 30 min, recurrence. Source: Complications, Atul Gawande #1/Quality = More procedures [Main Line Lankenau] Source: “In Health Care, Cost Isn’t Proof of High Quality,” NYT, 0614.07 (PA data, 60 hospitals, bypass surgery) “All Strategy Is Local: True competitive advantages are harder to find and maintain than people realize. The Focus: odds are best in tightly drawn markets, not big, sprawling ones” —Title/ Bruce Greenwald & Judd Kahn/HBR09.05 Private Equity-financed Firm, Best *Case *Focus! Focus! Focus! *In a [Big] hurry *CEO/Top team, “skin in the game” *CEO, 100% of time on the biz *Merit! Merit! *Motivated oversight *Worst case: Rape & Pillage The “New German Miracle”* = The “Old German Miracle” = Mittlestand** *Among other things, #1 in exports **”No doubt of it, tom [BASF exec/04.07] Conscious measurement Innovation Index: How many of your Top 5 Strategic Initiatives/Key Projects score 8 or higher [out of 10] on a “Weird”/ “Profound”/ “Wow”/“Game- changer” Scale? personal Buy a Mirror! Step #1: “The First step in a ‘dramatic’ ‘organizational change program’ is obvious— dramatic personal change!” —RG “To change minds effectively, leaders make particular use of two stories that they tell and the lives tools: the that they lead.” Changing Minds —Howard Gardner, “Work on me first.” —Kerry Patterson, Joseph Grenny, Ron McMillan and Al Switzler/Crucial Conversations “How can a high-level leader like _____ be so out of touch with the truth about himself? It’s more common than you would imagine. In fact, the higher up the ladder a leader climbs, the less accurate his self-assessment is likely to be. The problem is an acute lack of feedback [especially on people issues].” —Daniel Goleman (et al.), The New Leaders Inno64: Innovation Strategies & Tactics Parallel universe /Exec Ed v res MBA End run regnant powers/JKC Find done deals-practicing mavericks/Stone-ReGo Bell curves2016 in 2006 Non-industry benchmarking Everything = Portfolio V.C.s all! Hot language/Wow-Astonish me-Insanely great-immortal-Make something great Lead customers/PW-Embraer Lead suppliers /Top decile R&D Weird alliances Mottos/Paul Arden (“Whatever You Think Think the Opposite”) Hire freaks/Enough weird people? Weird Boards!!! CEO track record of Innovation (nobody starts at 45! Or 35!) System/GE-Immelt “Strategic thrust overlay” Calendar Big Delta easier than Small MBWA with freaks-weirdos/JKC MBWA/Boonies’ labs V.C.-formal/Intel Acquire weird Children’s crusade Old farts crusade Go Global at any size Stop listening to customers Talent!/Unusual sources-Hire innovators-V.C.s Eschew giant mergers Remember: scale economies max out early Assisted suicide! (“Built to last” = Chimerasnare-delusion) Burn your press clippings “Forgetting” “strategy” Fire all strategic planners Tempo! Final product bears little relation to starting notion Design! Design! Design! (“culture,” not program) All innovation: Pissed-off people Gut feel rules! Focus groups suck Weird focus groups okay Be-Do philosophy Celebrations Culture-little as well as big Inno (“everyonean-innovator”) Life = Wow Projects Acknowledge messiness-pursue serendipity (Blitzkrieg-Containers-Science-Jim Utterback) R.F.A. Culture of execution 4/40: decentralization, execution, accountability, 615AM EVP (S.O.U.B.)/Systems-process “un-design” Diversity for diversity’s sake Women-Women-Women/customers (they “are the market,” not a “segment”)-leaders Boomers-Geezers (“all the money”) CRO (Chief Revenue Officer) “culture”/topline obsessed CIO (Chief INNOVATION Officer) Laughter Facility-space configuration Experiments-prototypes “Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre successes.” Bizarrely high incentives (& penalties) We are what we eat/We are who we hang out with (E.g.: Staff-Consultants-Vendors-Out-sourcing Partners/#, Quality-Innovation Alliance PartnersCustomers-Competitors/who we “benchmark” against -Strategic Initiatives -Product Portfolio/LineEx v. LeapIS/IT Projects-HQ Location-Lunch Mates-LanguageBoard) What “We” Know “For Sure” About Innovation Big mergers [by & large] don’t work Scale is over-rated Strategic planning is the last refuge of scoundrels Focus groups are counter-productive “Built to last” is a chimera (stupid) Success kills “Forgetting” is impossible Re-imagine is a charming idea “Orderly innovation process” is an oxymoronic phrase (= Believed only by morons with ox-like brains) “Tipping points” are easy to identify … long after they will do you any good “Facts” aren’t All information making it to the top is filtered to the point of danger and hilarity “Success stories” are the illusions of egomaniacs (and “gurus”) If you believe the memoirs of CEOs you should be institutionalized “Herd behavior” (XYZ is “hot”) is ubiquitous … and amusing “Top teams” are “Dittoheads” CEOs have little effect on performance “Expert” prediction is rarely better than rolling the dice Pause: Case Study Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Women’s Rights/suffrage, relentlessness, and the messy nature of movements that rock the world “I have very serious objections to being called Henry. Why are the slaves nameless unless they take that of their master? Simply because they have no independent existence. They are mere chattels, with no civil or social rights. Even so with women. The custom of calling women Mrs. John This and Mrs. Tom That and colored men Sambo and Zip C___ is founded on the principal that white men are the lords of all. I cannot acknowledge this principle as just; therefore I cannot bear the name of another.” —Elizabeth Cady Stanton Source: In Her Own Right: The Life of Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Elisabeth Griffith ECS: “She was defeated again and again and again, but she continued the struggle with passionate impatience.” Source: In Her Own Right: The Life of Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Elisabeth Griffith 72 years, 1 month, 5 days “She had survived her husband, outlived most of her enemies, and exhausted her allies. Her mind remained alert, her mood optimistic, and her manner combative.” Source: “Self Sovereign 1889-1902,” In Her Own Right: The Life of Elizabeth Cady Stanton, Elisabeth Griffith (50 years down, 25 to go) Survived. outlived. exhausted. (husband) (enemies) (allies) Optimistic. combative. Driven by anger!! (not “focus groups”) Great “vision,” no “strategic plan” Whoops: conflicting “vision/s” Execution (& vision) (“Dreamers with deadlines”) Opportunistic Insane optimism Failure after failure; disappointment after disappointment (secret to staying power: Stay pissed off!!) Plan B rules Changing cadres Opportunistic alliances (here today, gone tomorrow) “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” Creating events and groups to serve a momentary need Warring leaders (Freud-Jung) Petulance (human frailty amidst a Great Struggle) Agile re goal w/o sacrificing Vision Go underground for long stretches Patience (72 years) & impatience Relentless!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (WSC: “Success stems from the ability to go from failure without losing your enthusiasm”) Hustle (Seneca Falls, ’48: 5 days) Fits & starts Traitors-deserters Radicals (“good”—MLKjr) Radicals (“disruptive”—Stokely) Moderates Mentors Schisms Setbacks (again & again & again—incl lost ground) (“2-9” = Great record) “Get off” on the “politics” (TP: “Life is politics— the rest is details.”) Managing the goal down to get to the doable (but not losing sight of the main game in the process) Small wins “Externalities” (Civil War) Small Band of Sisters (<10; Seneca Falls 1848) Coherent, factual, emotional story Story altered at the margin to attract specific adherents Story tellers (superb, relentless public communicators) Elizabeth Cady Stanton (more or less) (circa 0331.2007) Elizabeth Cady Stanton (more or less) (circa 0331.2007) Agility (Plan B) Relentless Resilient Optimistic (Unreasonably so) Pissed Off “Visionary” Try It. Try it. Try it. … Action > Plans Virus Small Wins Demos-Heroes-Stories Wee Gestures of Decency-Thoughtfulness Politics >> Science (Get over it!) Think: R.O.I.R. (Networker) Sales Rules! Passion (incl. speaking skills) Women (Lead Local Change Agents) Women Leaders (Woman to Woman) Success = 72.1.5 = Elizabeth Cady Stanton (1815-1902), Lucretia Mott, Martha Wright, Mary Ann McClintock, Jane Hunt (07.13.1848/Seneca falls ny) + 72 years, 1 month, 5 days (08.18.1920/nashville tn) “CHANGE MANAGEMENT.” What “We” Know “For Sure” About Innovation Big mergers [by & large] don’t work Scale is over-rated Strategic planning is the last refuge of scoundrels Focus groups are counter-productive “Built to last” is a chimera (stupid) Success kills “Forgetting” is impossible Re-imagine is a charming idea “Orderly innovation process” is an oxymoronic phrase (= Believed only by morons with ox-like brains) “Tipping points” are easy to identify … long after they will do you any good “Facts” aren’t All information making it to the top is filtered to the point of danger and hilarity “Success stories” are the illusions of egomaniacs (and “gurus”) If you believe the memoirs of CEOs you should be institutionalized “Herd behavior” (XYZ is “hot”) is ubiquitous … and amusing “Top teams” are “Dittoheads” CEOs have little effect on performance “Expert” prediction is rarely better than rolling the dice Tom’s “Change Rules” Cause. (pissed off.) Try it. (S.A.V.) Fail. Forward. Fast. Quests. Demos. Heroes. Stories. Boonies. (Parallel universe.) <12. Just Say No: Normal. Attitude>Ability. Wow. “Insanely great.” Sell! Sell! Sell! Master politics! Tom’s “Change Rules” Cause. (Pissed off.) RELENTLESS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Try it. (S.A.V.) (r.f.a.) (hustle.) project. Project. Project. Wow! (hot language.) fun. (growth opportunities.) Sky-high aspirations. Fail. Forward. Fast. “SMALL WINS.” MOMENTUM. INEVITABILITY. Quests. Demos. Heroes. Stories. STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE. (DIVERSITY.) Boonies. (Parallel universe. Test stuff. Buy WeeCo) V.C.: Roster = portfolio. everything = portfolio. Roster = brand yous. PARTNER WITH WIERDOS. (everywhere.) Diversity @ top. Buy a mirror. FRUSTRATED “GODFATHER.” <12. ALREADY IN PLACE/find ’em. JUST Say No: NORMAL. wikiWorld. Attitude > Ability. Wow. “Insanely great.” Sell! Sell! Sell! (master-appreciate politics) (r.o.i.r.) “You miss 100% of the shots you never take.” —Wayne Gretzky End Pause EXCELLENCE. 4/40. (Decentralization/Execution/Accountability/6:15A.M.) DECENTRALIZATION. EXECUTION. ACCOUTABILITY. 6:15A.M. De-central-iza-tion! “‘Decentralization’ is not a piece of paper. It’s not me. It’s either in your heart, or not.” —Brian Joffe/BIDvest “If if feels painful and scary—that’s real delegation” —Caspian Woods, small biz owner The True Logic* of Decentralization: 6 divisions = 6 “tries” 6 divisions = 6 DIFFERENT leaders = 6 INDEPENDENT “tries” = Max probability of “win” 6 divisions = 6 very DIFFERENT leaders = 6 very INDEPENDENT “tries” = Max probability of “far out”/”3-sigma” “win” *“Driver”: Law of Large #s “Best practice” = ZERO Standard Deviation Enemy #1 I.C.D. Inherent/Inevitable/ Immutable Centralist Drift Note 1: Note 2: Jim Burke’s 1-word vocabulary: “No.” No problems = No progress. [Period.] Decentralization vs Centralization = “That’s All There Is” (from childrearing 101 to the Federalist Papers to Org.2007) The Earls & Dukes vs King John (The Magna Carta) The Continental Congress vs the Constitution Jefferson vs Adams Sloan vs Ford GE vs All comers HP vs HP Peters vs Hammer Mintzberg vs Porter Ex-ecu-tion! “Execution is the job of the business leader.” —Larry Bossidy & Ram Charan/ Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done “Execution is a systematic process of rigorously discussing hows and whats, tenaciously following through, and ensuring accountability.” —Larry Bossidy & Ram Charan/ Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done (1) sum of Projects = Goal (“Vision”) (2) sum of Milestones = project (3) rapid Review + Truth-telling = accountability “Costco figured out the big, simple things and executed with total fanaticism.” —Charles Munger, Berkshire Hathaway .0004* *4/10,000 “Never forget implementation , boys. In our work, it’s what I call the ‘last 98 percent’ of the client puzzle.” —Al McDonald, former Managing Director, McKinsey & Co, to a project team that included TP “Recently I asked three corporate executives what decisions they had made in the last year that would not have been made were it not for their corporate plans. All had difficulty identifying one such decision. Since all of the plans are marked ‘secret’ or ‘confidential,’ I asked them how their competitors might benefit from possession of their plans. Each answered with embarrassment that their competitors would not benefit.” —Russell Ackoff (from Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning) Ac-counta-bil-ity! 30% MH: 80% CF: (no salesfolk) (salesfolk) “Monkeys can’t live in midair!” —Bob Townsend “GE has set a standard of candor. … There is no puffery. … There isn’t an ounce of denial in the place.” —Kevin Sharer, CEO Amgen, on the “GE mystique” (Fortune) Walter Reed SECDEF 6:15A.M. “But it’s only 2am!” “Where are you going? … But it’s only 2am. … You see, you can live your life at 120 miles an hour, and that’s pretty impressive. But it’s not good enough. Unless you live at 150 miles an hour, the world will pass you by,” HRH Prince Alwaleed* *1 day: 573 people met separately, 200 phone calls, 100 text messages, etc Source: “Prince Alwaleed, Inside the private world of the Middle East’s most powerful investor” cover story, The Business, 0519.07 DECENTRALIZATION. EXECUTION. ACCOUTABILITY. 2a.m. *Planetree! Commerce! Cirque! (Pianos! Dog biscuits!) *Jerry Garcia … or bust (“only ones who do what we do,” “insanely great,” “radically thrilling,” “gaspworthy.”) *Think/Obsess Wegmans! (Staff: #1; the Manager’s Handbook of Decencies; “Kindness is free.”) *Leaders serve. (Leader as host.) *”Wow” is free, too. *Hire nut cases (the “O for 800” rule holds for DDB) Pause: “The Rules” Tom Peters’ X25* EXCELLENCE. ALWAYS. The rules. *In Search of Excellence 1982-2007 “It” Cause Space (worthy of commitment) (room for/encouragement for initiative) Decency (respect, humane) It+ Cause Space (worthy of commitment) (room for/encouragement for initiative-adventures) Decency (respect, grace, integrity, humane) service (worthy of our clients’ & extended family’s continuing custom) excellence (period) Cause Space Decency service (worthy of commitment) (room for/encouragement for initiative-adventures) (respect, grace, integrity, humane) (worthy of our clients’ & extended family’s continuing custom) excellence servant leadership (period) Cause Space Decency service excellence servant leadership Alt. “It.” Hire Great People (Resilient, Passionate) Try a Lot of Stuff (S.A.V./R.F.A.) all “wow” all the time Enjoy It While It Lasts The Rules. pursue a mission that rocks the world Moldy basements) (Pharmaceuticals, Hire awesome/weird People for 100% of jobs (Resilient, Passionate) (Wegmans) (Women RULE!) give ’em lots of room to experiment, fail, grow make “respect” “decency” “integrity” our watchwords try a Lot of Stuff, fast tempo (S.A.V./Screw Around Vigorously, R.F.A./Ready. Fire. Aim.) Emphasize revenue (Organic growth, Sales/“Top line” rules) have fun/exude joy demand excellence/Make accountability instinctive (“Insane” standards for our mates’ and community’s sake) never, never forget the “it” (It’s the PRODUCT, Stupid.) (25!) be “of [‘gaspworthy’] service” (Cirque du Soleil is our standard— “even” in finance.) (My customer is my partner.) (Remember “She”; remember “Me.”) (“Servant”/“Host” Leadership) Have effective/imaginative/minimalist infrastructure (K.I.S.S./Keep It Simple, Stupid) (Systems/No bull: beauty, grace, elegance) re-imagine as “routine” enjoy It While It Lasts ” pursue a mission that rocks the world (Pharmaceuticals, Moldy basements) Hire awesome/weird People for 100% of jobs (Resilient, Passionate) (Wegmans) give ’em lots of room to experiment, fail, grow make “respect” “decency” “integrity” our watchwords Leaders “Serve.” (“Servant”/“Host” Leadership) try a Lot of Stuff, fast tempo (S.A.V./Screw Around Vigorously, R.F.A./Ready. Fire. Aim.) Emphasize revenue (Organic growth, Sales/“Top line” rules) have fun/exude joy demand excellence/Make accountability instinctive (“Insane” standards for our mates’ and community’s sake) It’s all about Women! never, never forget the “it” (It’s the PRODUCT, Stupid.) 25! (Go, Howard!) (Conrad says, “Don’t for the shower curtain.) be “of [‘gaspworthy’] service” (Cirque du Soleil is our standard—”even” in finance.) (My customer is my partner.) (Remember “She”; remember “Me.”) Create effective/imaginative/minimalist infrastructure (K.I.S.S./Keep It Simple, Stupid; RED BUTTON on the terminal) re-imagine as “routine” (Forget > Remember) enjoy It While It Lasts End Pause: “The Rules” Excellence: The SE22: ORIGINS OF SUSTAINABLE ENTREPRENEURSHIP SE22/Origins of Sustainable Entrepreneurship 1. Genetically disposed to Innovations that upset apple carts (3M, Apple, FedEx, Virgin, BMW, Sony, Nike, Schwab, Starbucks, Oracle, Sun, Fox, Stanford University, MIT) 2. Perpetually determined to outdo oneself, even to the detriment of today’s $$$ winners (Apple, Cirque du Soleil, Nokia, FedEx) 3. Treat History as the Enemy (GE) 4. Love the Great Leap/Enjoy the Hunt (Apple, Oracle, Intel, Nokia, Sony) 5. Use “Strategic Thrust Overlays” to Attack Monster Problems (Sysco, GSK, GE, Microsoft) 6. Establish a “Be on the COOL Team” Ethos. (Most PSFs, Microsoft) 7. Encourage Vigorous Dissent/Genetically “Noisy” (Intel, Apple, Microsoft, CitiGroup, PepsiCo) 8. “Culturally” as well as organizationally Decentralized (GE, J&J, Omnicom) 9. Multi-entrepreneurship/Many Independent-minded Stars (GE, PepsiCo) HP’s Big “Duh”! Decentralize ($90B) Undo “Matrix” Accountability Source: “HP Says Goodbye To Drama”/ BW/09.05/re Mark Hurd’s first 5 months 30% MH: 80% CF: (no salesfolk) (salesfolk) “No Need for Economies of Scale: Illinois Tool Revs Up Innovation by Keeping Its 655 Units Separate and Focused” Source: Headline, BW, 1031.05 (“commodity” producer; R&D = 1%; Top 100 patent recipient—66th in ’04) ($12B rev in ’04; CEO David Speer: focus, lean, customer intimacy, entrepreneurial, employee participation) GSK: 7 “CEDDs” … Centers of Excellence for Drug Discovery DePuySpine/J&J* 70/3 game-changers! *Still decentralized after all these years! TP “Lessons Learned” Innovation = DisDis (Disciplined Disorganization) Luck is a very good thing.* ** (*More “lessons” later: E.g., If you hire a bunch of disciplined weirdoes and try a lot of weird stuff, the odds of getting lucky go up remarkably) (**Career success depends on convincing others that you knew what the hell you were doing all along. Good news: Say it long enough and you will believe it. Great news: Keep saying it and you, too, can become a “guru.”) SE22/Origins of Sustainable Entrepreneurship 10. Keep decentralizing—tireless in pursuit of wiping out Centralizing Tendencies (J&J, Virgin) 11. Scour the world for Ingenious Alliance Partners— especially exciting start-ups (Pfizer) 12. Acquire for Innovation, not Market Share (Cisco, GE) 13. Don’t overdo “pursuit of synergy” (GE, J&J, Time Warner) 14. Execution/Action Bias: Just do it … don’t obsess on how it “fits the business model.” (3M, J & J) 15. Find and Encourage and Promote Strong-willed/ Hyper-smart/Independent people (GE, PepsiCo, Microsoft) 16. Support Internal Entrepreneurs (3M, Microsoft) 17. Ferret out Talent anywhere/“No limits” approach to retaining top talent (Virgin, GE, PepsiCo) SE22/Origins of Sustainable Entrepreneurship 18. Unmistakable Results & Accountability focus from the get-go to the grave (GE, New York Yankees, PepsiCo) 19. Up or Out (GE, McKinsey, big consultancies and law firms and ad agencies and movie studios in general) 20. Competitive to a fault! (GE, New York Yankees, News Corp/Fox, PepsiCo) 21. “Bi-polar” Top Team, with “Unglued” Innovator #1, powerful Control Freak #2 (Oracle, Virgin) (Watch out when #2 is missing: Enron) 22. Masters of Loose-Tight/Hard-nosed about a very few Core Values, Open-minded about everything else (Virgin) “HOW THE COAST GUARD GETS IT RIGHT” —Headline, Time, 10.31.2005 *Autonomy *Flexibility *“Perhaps the most important distinction of the Coast Guard is that it trusts itself” Itinerant. Potential. Machines. TALENT POOL TO DIE FOR. Youthful. Insanely energetic. Value creativity. Risk taking is routine. Failing is normal … if you’re stretching. Want to “make their bones” in “the revolution.” Love the new technologies. Well rewarded. Don’t plan to be around 10 years from now. TALENT POOL PLUS. Seek out and work with “world’s best” as needed (it’s often needed). “We aim to change the world, and we need gifted colleagues—who well may not be on our payroll.” BRASSY-BUT-GROUNDEDLEADERSHIP. Say “I don’t know”—and then unleash the TALENT. Have a vision to be DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT—but don’t expect the co. to be around forever. Will scrap pet projects, and change course 180 degrees—and take a big write-off in the process. NO REGRETS FROM SCREW-UPS WHOSE TIME HAS NOT-YET-COME. GREAT REGRETS AT TIME & $$$ WASTED ON “ME TOO” PRODUCTS AND PROJECTS. BRASSY-BUT-GROUNDED-LEADERSHIP. (Cont.) “Visionary” leaders matched by leaders with shrewd business sense: “HOW DO WE TURN A PROFIT ON THIS GORGEOUS IDEA?” Appreciate “market creation” as much as or more than “market share growth.” ARE INSANELY AWARE THAT MARKET LEADERS ARE ALWAYS IN PRECARIOUS POSITIONS, AND THAT MARKET SHARE WILL NOT PROTECT US, IN TODAY’S VOLATILE WORLD, FROM THE NEXT KILLER IDEA AND KILLER ENTREPRENEUR. (Gates. Ellison. Venter. McNealy. Walton. Case. Etc.) ALLIANCE MANIACS. Don’t assume that “the best resides within.” WORK WITH A SHIFTING ARRAY OF STATEOF-THE-ART PARTNERS FROM ONE END OF THE “SUPPLY CHAIN” TO THE OTHER. Including vendors and consultants and … who especially … PIONEERING CUSTOMERS … will “pull us into the future.” TECHNOLOGY-NETWORK FANATICS. Run the whole-damncompany, and relations with all outsiders, on the Internet … at Internet speed. Reluctant to work with those who don’t share this (radical) vision. “Crazy Times Call for Crazy Organizations” —Subtitle, The Tom Peters Seminar (1993) Pause … Tom Peters’ Action Chronicles. EXCELLENCE. ALWAYS. Think-Do.ACTION.0329.2007 The (necessary) war on linearity: One engineer’s (unusual) life’s work. tom peters “Apparently our society, not unlike the Greeks with their Delphic oracles, takes great comfort in believing that very talented ‘seers’ removed from the hurlyburly world of reality can tell foretell coming events.” —Len Sayles/Columbia (from Henry Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning) “Nothing is more dangerous in war than theoreticians.” —Marshall Petain (John Mosier, The Blitzkrieg Myth, “War as Pseudoscience: 1920-1939”) “This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, generally precise reason.” —Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb EXCELLE ALWAYS End Pause EXCELLE ALWAYS. End. PART TWO