New growth engines.
New paradigm.
new Korea.
New Growth Engines’ Convention & Expo
Tom Peters/26 May 2009
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Slides at tompeters.com
Palo Alto/
Silicon
Valley/
1969-2004
Bedrock/Transformations
***Gold Rush (California Dream, “bet the farm,” immigrants,
entrepreneurs, optimists, latecomer-start afresh/1850-SF)
***Union Pacific Railroad (Chinese labor)
***WWII (return via Golden Gate Bridge—immigrant state)
***Stanford (Sterling) (3 of 10 worldwide)
***Defense
***San Francisco “flower children”
***Reagan, Schwarzenegger (entrepreneur, immigrant, optimist)
***HP (electronic tools)
***Semiconductors (Shockley, Fairchild Semi-conductor)
***3000 Sand Hill Road (WORLD’s largest concentration of VCs)
***Memory chips (Intel, AMD)
***ICs (Intel’s 180-degree flip))
***Computers/Big (HP, Sun)
***Computers/Small (Apple)
***Consumer stuff (Atari)
***Biotech (Stanford, UCSF, CA, Genentech)
***Software/Big (Oracle)
***Software/All
***Software/Search (Netscape, Yahoo, Google)
***Green/Energy
***Can giant enterprises maintain
competitiveness? What are the
limits to scale (e.g., Is a GE
too big to manage, or still a
paragon of RADICAL
DECENTRALIZATION?)?
***MIXED MODEL = Productive-"winning”
economy: Giants and SMEs.
***Think, in particular, “MITTELSTAND”
(Remember: Germany is #1 exporter!)
***Critical mass in several population centers,
each a little different.
***Toward an "entrepreneurial society"— CHINA
(ALIBABA.COM, 32M OF 40M) and INDIA [and USA]
"get it,' Japan doesn't. (YUNUS:
entrepreneurial “flair” widespread if
encouraged.)
“Mr. Foster and his McKinsey colleagues
collected detailed performance data
stretching back 40 years for 1,000 U.S.
They found that
none of the long-term
survivors managed to
outperform the market.
Worse, the longer
companies had been in
the database, the worse
they did.” —Financial Times
companies.
***Can giant enterprises maintain
competitiveness? What are the limits to scale
(e.g., Is a GE too big to manage, or still a
paragon of RADICAL DECENTRALIZATION?)?
***MIXED MODEL = Productive-"winning”
economy: Giants and SMEs.
***Think, in particular, “MITTELSTAND”
(Remember: Germany is #1 exporter!)
***Critical mass in several population centers,
each a little different.
***Toward an "entrepreneurial society"— CHINA
(ALIBABA.COM, 32M OF 40M) and INDIA [and USA]
"get it,' Japan doesn't. (YUNUS:
entrepreneurial “flair” widespread if
encouraged.)
#1:
Mittelstand!!
Germany
***Can giant enterprises maintain
competitiveness? What are the limits to scale
(e.g., Is a GE too big to manage, or still a
paragon of RADICAL DECENTRALIZATION?)?
***MIXED MODEL = Productive-"winning”
economy: Giants and SMEs.
***Think, in particular, “MITTELSTAND”
(Remember: Germany is #1 exporter!)
***Critical mass in several population centers,
each a little different.
***Toward an "entrepreneurial society"— CHINA
(ALIBABA.COM, 32M OF 40M) and INDIA [and USA]
"get it,' Japan doesn't. (YUNUS:
entrepreneurial “flair” widespread if
encouraged.)
***Toward a "creative society”—
long term "economic valueadded” starts at AGE 6 in
the classroom.
***CULTURAL STIGMA MUST BE REMOVED
FROM FAILURE—SMALL OR GRAND.
***Extraordinary role of RESEARCH
UNIVERSITIES; nexus of research
universities-funds sources.
***SILICON VALLEY: Big and SME; critical
mass; mfg and “cool”; incredible diversity;
venture money, legal resources; university
(3 of world’s Top 10); attitude; tolerance
for failure.
***Cornerstone of “creative society”:
DIVERSITY! (Of every sort.)
***Immigrants!
“Every child is
born an artist.
The trick is to
remain an
artist.” —Picasso
“Human creativity is
the ultimate
economic resource.”
“The Creative Age is
a wide-open game.”
—Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class
***Toward a "creative society”—long term
"economic value-added” starts at AGE 6 in
the classroom.
***CULTURAL STIGMA MUST BE
REMOVED FROM FAILURE—
SMALL OR GRAND.
***Extraordinary role of RESEARCH
UNIVERSITIES; nexus of research
universities-funds sources.
***SILICON VALLEY: Big and SME; critical
mass; mfg and “cool”; incredible diversity;
venture money, legal resources; university
(3 of world’s Top 10); att-i-tude; tolerance
for failure.
***Cornerstone of “creative society”:
DIVERSITY! (Of every sort.)
***Immigrants!
McKenna:
Noyce:
“Maybe not
enough fail.”
McKenna:
Noyce:
“A lot of companies in
the Valley fail.”
“What do you mean
by that?”
“Whenever you fail,
it means you’re trying
new things.”
Source: Fast Company
“The secret of fast progress is
inefficiency, fast and
furious and numerous
failures.”
—Kevin Kelly
“The Silicon Valley of today is
built less atop the spires of
earlier triumphs than upon
the rubble of earlier
debacles.” —Newsweek
/Paul Saffo
“IN SILICON VALLEY …
IF YOU ARE NOT STOLEN AWAY BY SOME COMPANY
EVERY FEW YEARS (OR MONTHS) …
YOU ARE NOT CONSIDERED A ‘HOT PROPERTY.’
STABILITY IS A
MARK OF
SHAME.”
Source: Juan Enriquez/As the Future Catches You
***Toward a "creative society”—long term
"economic value-added” starts at AGE 6 in
the classroom.
***CULTURAL STIGMA MUST BE REMOVED
FROM FAILURE—SMALL OR GRAND.
***Extraordinary role of RESEARCH
UNIVERSITIES; nexus of research
universities-funds sources.
***SILICON VALLEY: Big and SME; critical
mass; mfg and “cool”; incredible diversity;
venture money, legal resources; university
(3 of world’s Top 10); attitude; tolerance
for failure.
***Cornerstone of “creative society”:
DIVERSITY! (Of every sort.)
***Immigrants!
***Toward a "creative society”—long term
"economic value-added” starts at AGE 6 in
the classroom.
***CULTURAL STIGMA MUST BE REMOVED
FROM FAILURE—SMALL OR GRAND.
***Extraordinary role of RESEARCH
UNIVERSITIES; nexus of research
universities-funds sources.
***SILICON VALLEY: Big and SME; critical
mass; mfg and “cool”; incredible diversity;
venture money, legal resources; university
(3 of world’s Top 10); att-i-tude; tolerance
for failure.
***Cornerstone of “creative
society”: DIVERSITY! (Of every
sort.)
***Immigrants!
U.S. Historical Strength:
Invest in Creativity
*Foster new industries
*Free & open society
*Investment higher ed, R & D, culture
*Immigrants (# 1!)
Source: Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class
Creativity Index:
The 3 T’s:
Technology
(HT Index/firms & $$$,
Innovation Index/patent growth)
Talent
(% with bachelors degrees+)
Tolerance
(Melting Pot Index/foreigners,
Bohemian Index/artists et al., Gay Index/rel. #s)
Source: Richard Florida, The Rise of the Creative Class
***RICH VARIETY OF FINANCING SOURCES,
from “angels” to big banks.
***Active IP bar; CYBER WARFARE capability.
***PRODUCTIVITY
(AND INNOVATION) IS
A 100% PROPOSITION, from 3-person
business to giant.
***"Best workforce" applies as much to
small service companies as to big
manufacturers.
***Innovation applies to SERVICE SECTOR as
much as manufacturing (every aspect—e.g.
design)
***Manufacturing companies gravitate
toward/race toward "SERVICES ADDED" as
principal revenue-growth source—the case of
GE (!!), IBM, United Technologies and others.
***RICH VARIETY OF FINANCING SOURCES,
from “angels” to big banks.
***Active IP bar; CYBER WARFARE capability.
***PRODUCTIVITY (AND INNOVATION) IS A
100% PROPOSITION, from 3-person business
to giant.
***"Best workforce" applies as much to small
service companies as to big manufacturers.
***Innovation applies to SERVICE SECTOR as
much as manufacturing (every aspect—e.g.
design)
***Manufacturing companies gravitate
toward/race toward "SERVICES
ADDED" as principal revenue-growth
source—the case of GE (!!), IBM, HP,
United Technologies and others.
IB :
$60B
“M”
HP + Style
+ EDS
“We want to be the
air traffic controllers
of electrons.”*
—Bob Nardelli,
GE Power Systems (10% to 50%+ in about 5 years)
*Immelt: Environment, Energy, Healthcare–
“Systems Integrator”
UTC/Otis + UTC/ Carrier:
boxes to
“integrated
building
systems”
“THE GIANT STALKING BIG OIL: How
Schlumberger Is
Rewriting the Rules of the Energy Game.”:
“IPM [Integrated Project Management]
strays from [Schlumberger’s]
traditional role as a service provider
and moves deeper into areas once
dominated by the majors.” CEO: “just
about anything an oilfield owner would
want, from drilling to production”
Source: BusinessWeek cover story, January 2008
“UPS wants to take over
the sweet spot in the
endless loop of goods,
information and capital
that all the packages [it moves]
represent.”
—ecompany.com
(E.g., UPS Logistics manages the logistics of 4.5M Ford vehicles,
from 21 mfg. sites to 6,000 NA dealers)
***Only a small fraction of “manufacturing
workers” work at manufacturing.
***Innovation is a product of PRODUCER-USER
INTERACTION (service companies as
sophisticated users—think UPS, FedEx—are as
important as producers); much of it local.
(Bhidé.)
***Innovation in government services—a
significant part of economic growth.
***THE WORLD IS NOT ENTIRELY "FLAT."
(ABB’s 125 of 300,000.)
***The "DESIGN ADVANTAGE”—an
essential source of value- added.
***Equal innovation mandate in 100% of the firm
(HR, IS, Logistics, etc.)
***Only a small fraction of “manufacturing
workers” work at manufacturing.
***Innovation is a product of PRODUCERUSER INTERACTION (service
companies as sophisticated users—
think UPS, FedEx—are as important as
producers); much of it local. (Bhidé.)
***Innovation in government services—a
significant part of economic growth.
***THE WORLD IS NOT ENTIRELY "FLAT."
(ABB’s 125 of 300,000.)
***The "DESIGN ADVANTAGE”—an
essential source of value- added.
***Equal innovation mandate in 100% of the firm
(HR, IS, Logistics, etc.)
Sustainable Innovation:
Systemic. Very complex. The
NECESSARY COMBINATION (very
dense network) of EVERYTHING from the
development of the Basic Science to numerous
INTERMEDIATE
Stages to Sales Recruiting
and Training and Ads. Essential: Clever and numerous
AGGRESSIVE CONSUMERS
(“venturesome consumption”). Path to success or failure …
UNPREDICTABLE. FYI: The
World is NOT FLAT.
Source: Amar Bhidé, The Venturesome Economy: How
Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World
Sustainable Innovation: Systemic. Very complex. The COMBINATION
(very dense network) of EVERYTHING
Basic
Science*
from the
to Sales Recruiting and Training
PIONEER CONSUMERS (“venturesome
consumption”). Path to success or failure … UNPREDICTABLE.
and Ads. Essential: Clever and numerous
*Of modest value [& origin mostly
irrelevant] unless the ENTIRE
INNOVATION CHAIN
is in
place and aggressively interacting-competing.
Source: Amar Bhidé, The Venturesome Economy: How
Innovation Sustains Prosperity in a More Connected World
***Only a small fraction of “manufacturing
workers” work at manufacturing.
***Innovation is a product of PRODUCER-USER
INTERACTION (service companies as
sophisticated users—think UPS, FedEx—are as
important as producers); much of it local.
(Bhidé.)
***Innovation in government services—a
significant part of economic growth.
***THE WORLD IS NOT ENTIRELY "FLAT."
(ABB’s 125 of 300,000.)
***The "DESIGN ADVANTAGE”—an
essential source of value- added.
***Equal innovation mandate in 100% of the firm
(HR, IS, Logistics, etc.)
***The essential role of the LOCAL CONSUMER.
(The U.S. consumer CANNOT BE/WILL NOT BE
the “engine of Asian growth”!)
***"New" marketplace demographics: Primary
purchasers (Europe, North America,
Japan, etc.) are Women and "Boomers"+
(members of the aging population).
***Maintaining Korea's historic "BIAS FOR
ACTION” (success factor #1 from
In Search of Excellence).
***Commitment to EXCELLENCE as national
attribute- "brand" (think Germany-mfg, Italydesign). (I repeat: such a commitment applies
to 100% of the work force and to every
enterprise.)
***The current economic “situation” does
not change the fundamentals of this
necessary strategic, tectonic shift.
“DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES” ARE
PICKING UP STEAM—FLURRIES OF
ACTIVITY, BUBBLES,
CONSOLIDATIONS, ETC WILL BE THE
NORM FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE!.
***AS “CREATIVE” NEEDS GROW—
WIDESPREAD ENTREPRENEURSHIP
WILL BE A REQUISITE FOR
TRANSFORMATION-SUCCESS.