Mechanical boon
Will automation advance Australia?
Daniel Edmonds
Industry Economics Branch
Office of the Chief Economist
15 September 2015
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
“[Technology threatens] a whole new
group of skills — the sorting, filing,
checking, calculating, remembering,
comparing, okaying skills — that are the
special preserve of the office worker.”
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
What makes us human?
We have unique capabilities that robots are unlikely to perform in the near future
Perception / Manipulation
Creative intelligence
Social intelligence
Identifying and precisely
manipulating items in an
unstructured environment
Being able to generate
creative or original
products and solutions
The ability to interact and
communicate with others
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
Australia vs the US
Distribution of automation
44 per cent of Australian
jobs are highly susceptible
to automation.
Percentage of labour market
30
vs
25
This is nearly identical to 43
per cent of US employment,
when you adjust Frey and
Osborne’s automation scores
to 2014 employment
statistics.
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Automation score decile
Australia
US
44 per cent
10
However only 33 per cent of
jobs have low automation
susceptibility — significantly
lower than those in the US,
where 38 per cent of jobs
categorised the same.
Source: Department of Industry and Science analysis (2015),
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014)
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
Most and least automatable
Top and bottom 20 occupations by automation susceptibility
20 highest automation scores
Occupation
Telemarketers
Bank workers
Bookkeepers
Accounting clerks
Product quality
Payroll clerks
Checkout operators
Other clerical workers
Insurance investigators
Library assistants
Other sales assistants
Switchboard operators
General clerks
Inquiry clerks
Secretaries
Product assemblers
Keyboard operators
Jewellers
Debt collectors
Garden labourers
20 lowest automation scores
Score
99.0
97.8
97.7
97.2
97.0
97.0
96.9
96.7
96.6
96.3
96.2
96.1
96.0
95.9
95.4
95.2
95.1
95.0
95.0
95.0
Occupation
Dietitians
Hotel managers
Education advisers
Psychologists
Dental practitioners
Speech professionals
Education managers
School principals
ICT business analysts
Secondary teachers
Podiatrists
Occupational therapists
Chiropractors
Special educ teachers
Agricultural scientists
Pharmacists
Ministers of religion
ICT trainers
Training professionals
Office managers
Source: Department of Industry and Science analysis (2015)
Score
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.4
The jobs that have the
lowest automation scores
all use skills that humans
have advantages over
machines.
These skills include dexterity,
originality, fine arts skills,
persuasion, negotiation, and
assisting for others.
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
Susceptible jobs have grown slower
Automation and growth
Average growth:
3.1 per cent
Average growth:
0.9 per cent
15
Program administrator
Driller
Event organiser
Policy analyst
10
Per cent growth
Accountant
5
0
-5
Economist
Livestock worker
Office manager
-10
Visual artist
Textile
machinist
Street vendor
-15
0
20
40
60
80
100
Automation score
Source: Department of Industry and Science analysis
Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force, Detailed (Customised Report)
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
Some industries face large transitions
Automation by industry
Industries most pressured
by automation include retail,
transport and hospitality.
Education will experience
the least pressure.
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
Source: Department of Industry and Science analysis (2015)
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
Automation evolution
Industries modernising
their work forces is the
major cause of automation
change over time
81 per cent of total automation
change was due to the withinindustry effects that saw
industries modernise their
workforces to become more
perceptive, creative and social.
Only 19 per cent was due to
the between-industry effects of
industries growing and
shrinking over time.
81%
of Australia’s automation
change was due to
industries modernising
Source: Department of Industry and Science analysis (2015)
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
“[Technology threatens] a whole new
group of skills — the sorting, filing,
checking, calculating, remembering,
comparing, okaying skills — that are the
special preserve of the office worker.”
Robert Heilbroner
Economist
1965, in The Public Interest
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
Automation advances Australia
There remain concerns
about the displacement
effects of automation. It is
true that technology will
displace many jobs. But
this does not mean that
new jobs cannot take their
place.
New jobs that will be more
creative, more perceptive,
and more social. New jobs
that will be better paid and
more stable.
Consistently workers and
industry have embraced and
leveraged technological
change to reach prosperity.
Growth in new jobs
Higher skilled economy
More innovation
Higher disposable incomes
Greater productivity
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce
Further information
Contact Details
Mechanical boon: will automation advance Australia?
Daniel Edmonds and Timothy Bradley
Daniel Edmonds
Industry Economics Branch
Office of the Chief Economist
Phone:
Email:
02 6102 7993
daniel.edmonds@industry.gov.au
Industry Innovation
Workshop 2015
15 September
industry.gov.au/oce