Analytical Fire Modeling:
Fire in it’s Environment
Christopher G. Morrison
Nicholas J. Kutac
Rio Rancho High School
Team # 077
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Project Overview
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Significance
Problem Definition
Previous Year’s Progress
New Research
Current Program
– Forest Fire Movement
– Heat and Fire Flow
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Progress To Date
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Significance
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Cerro Grande - 2000
– Burned 47,650 acres of federal land
– Cost 10 million dollars to contain
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Yellowstone - 1988
– Burned 793,000 acres (36% of park)
– Cost 120 million dollars to contain
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Michigan - 1871
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Problem Definition
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How to show more
realistic fire-spread
 Find more dynamic
math models
 Look at fire spread
in 3-dimensions
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Last Year’s Progress
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Heat Model
– Averaging equation
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Environment
modeling
FOR MORE INFO...
Link to last year’s final
report by Chris Morrison
http://www.challenge.nm.org/archive/04-05/finalreports/53.pdf
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Fire Methodology
Fire Facts
 Heat Facts
 Fuel Facts
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– Flash points
– Crown and Floor Fires
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Environmental Factors
– Wind, Humidity, Ambient Temperature,
Forest Fuels, Elevation
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New Research - Contacts
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Andrea Rodriguez, USFS Cartographer
– Geospatial contact, Geospatial Service &
Technology Center
– Real data for terrain and ground cover
– Meta-data and raster difficult to interpret
– Unable to incorporate this year
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New Research - Farsite Model
Developed by US Forest Service
 Incorporates Huygen’s principles
 Fire expansion
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– Similar
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Wind and Fuel
effect
– Different
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New Research - Fire Spread
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Huygen’s Principle
– Processed terrain
– Several variables
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Current Program - Algorithm
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Two Parts
– Heat Flow
– Fire Flow
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Program Base
– Patch level of forest exactness
– Mini-patch level of fire exactness
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See program (alt-tab)
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Program - Heat Flow
Everyday Occurrences
 Newton’s Law of Cooling
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Fourier’s Law of Conduction
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Program - Fire Expansion
Locates perimeter
 Expands out
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– Max Spread Rate
– Spread Rate
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Plots X new fires
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Program - Progress to Date
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Inputs
– Fuel type based on color
– Possibly elevation
– Environmental Factors
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Outputs
– Size, Damage, Heat
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Validation
– Comparisons
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Successes
– New inventive fire program design
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Program - Assumptions
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Assumptions
– Fire Flow is elliptical
– Heat Flow and Fire Flow are separate,
related elements
– Newton’s Law and Fourier’s law control
heat Flow
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Work to Be Done
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Before Final Evaluation
– Program
•
•
•
•
Connect Heat and Fire Flow
Add environmental Factors
Add Spark Fires
Add Crown Fires
– Web site
– Final Report
• Get started
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Research Bibliography
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Bonsor, K. (2004) How Wild Fires Work Retrieved October 3rd 2005 from
http://science.howstuffworks.com/wildfire.htm
Diaz, J.C. (2002). Fourier’s law retrieved on December 6th 2005 from
http://www.mcs.utulsa.edu/~class_diaz/cs4533/flowheat/node4.html#S
ECTION00121000000000000000
EFunda.com (2005). Heat Transfer. EFounda.com. Retrieved December 12th
2005 from
http://www.efunda.com/formulae/heat_transfer/home/overview.cfm
Finey, M. (2002) Austrailian Mathematical Society Fire growth using minimum
travel time methods
Harris, T. (2005). How Wild Fire Works Retrieved December 13th 2005 from
http://science.howstuffworks.com/fire.htm
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Bibliography - Continued
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Masse, B. & Nisengard, J. (2003). Cerro Grange Fire Assessment Project
Cultureal Resources Report No. 211.
O’Driscoll, P. (2005). Studies at odds over logging after wildfires. USA Today
Nov. 2nd
Rona, A. (2003). Conduction. Retrieved December 6th, 2005
http://www.le.ac.uk/engineering/ar45/eg1100/eg1100w/node12.html
Taftan Data (1998). Fourier's Law of Conduction. Retrieved December 6th,
2005 http://www.taftan.com/thermodynamics/FOURIER.HTM
www.nifc.gov (last updated, 2002). Historical Wildfire Statistics. Retrieved
December 6th 2005 http://www.nifc.gov/stats/historicalstats.html
Fire Picture Thanks to www.StrangeCosmos.com
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