REPORT ON THE FOREIGN TRADE
SITUATION OF CHINA
SPRING, 2007
MINISTRY OF COMMERCE OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
DEPARTMENT OF COMPREHENSIVE AFFAIRS
CHINESE ACADEMY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION
OVERVIEW
The Report briefly reviews China’s foreign trade performance in 2006. It points out
that in face of a favorable situation at home and abroad, China’s competent
department of foreign trade seriously implemented the policy of scientific
development concept and macro controls, actively promoted the transformation of the
foreign trade growth model, conscientiously carried out the strategy of revitalizing
trade through science and technology and the strategy of market diversification,
China’s foreign trade in 2006 maintained its sustained and rapid momentum of growth
with total imports and exports again ranking third in the world.
The Report focuses its analysis on China’s foreign trade performance in the first
quarter of 2007. China’s foreign trade in the first quarter maintained its momentum of
growth that started from the second half of 2006, imports and exports continued to
show rapid growth, exports of most competitive commodities continued to show
growth, imports of resource products grew rapidly, ordinary trade still posted a
stronger growth than processing trade, FIEs and individually-run enterprises showed a
considerably higher growth in imports and exports as compared with SOEs, trade with
major partners continued to grow.
The Report predicts the outlook of China’s foreign trade development in 2007 as a
whole. It says that world economy and trade will carry on its cyclical expansion in
2007, domestic economy will maintain its steady and faster growth on the basis of
optimized structure, improved returns and energy saving and consumption reduction.
In face of a still favorable overall environment, China’s foreign trade in 2007 as a
whole is set to maintain its buoyant pace of growth. The Report forecast that in
consideration of various factors, China’s merchandise imports and exports will remain
its faster expansion in 2007 with total imports and exports exceeding US$2100 billion
in value terms, up by around 20%.
CONTENTS
Overview
Report on the foreign trade situation of China
I. China’s foreign trade performance in 2006
II. Foreign trade performance in the first quarter of 2007
III. Outlook for China’s foreign trade in 2007
Special column
Column I: Threats to the world economic growth: whether the US economy will move
toward a recession?
Column II: China’s iron ore imports and recent dispute with India
Column III: Policies and measures promulgated to encourage imports
Annex
Annex I：World economic and trade situations
Annex II: Macro economic situation of China
Annex III: Trends in world commodity markets
Annex IV: Status quo of China’s trade in services
Statistics
Table 1: Overall growth of China's imports and exports, 1998-2007.1-3
Table 2: Composition of China's exports, 1998-2007.1-3
Table 3: Composition of China's imports, 1998-2007.1-3
Table 4: China's exports by form, 1998-2007.1-3
Table 5: China's exports by ownership, 1998-2007.1-3
Table 6: China’s exports by country/region, 1998-2007.1-3
Table 7: China's imports by country/region, 1998-2007.1-3
Table 8: China’s exports by provinces (regions, cities), 2000-2007.1-3
Table 9: China's imports by provinces (regions, cities), 2000-2007.1-3
REPORT ON THE FOREIGN TRADE
SITUATION OF CHINA
I. China’s Foreign Trade Performance in 2006
In 2006, global economy maintained its faster momentum of growth with a
continued strong expansion in trade and investment. China’s national economic
growth remained stable and rapid, which made a good start for the Eleventh Five-year
Plan Period. In face of a favorable situation at home and abroad, China’s competent
department of foreign trade seriously implemented the policy of scientific
development concept and macro controls, actively promoted the transformation of the
foreign trade growth model, conscientiously carried out the strategy of revitalizing
trade through science and technology and the strategy of market diversification. As a
result, China’s foreign trade maintained its sustained and rapid momentum of growth
with total imports and exports again ranking third in the world.
(I) Imports and exports grew rapidly, trade surplus continued to boost
Since 2002, China’s strong trade performance in merchandise imports and exports
has continued for 5 consecutive years with annual rate of growth outpaced 28%.
Growth in China’s Foreign Trade and Surplus, 2001－2006
US$100m
%
2000
45
1800
40
1600
35
1400
30
1200
1000
25
20
800
600
15
400
10
200
5
0
0
2001
Balance
2002
2003
2004
Export Grow th
2005
2006
Im port Grow th
In 2006, China’s merchandise imports and exports totaled US$1760.69 billion, up
by 23.8% year-on-year, of which the exports totaled US$969.07 billion, up by 27.2%
and the imports totaled US$791.61 billion, up by 20%. Affected by RMB appreciation,
export rebate and policy adjustments on processing trade, rate of growth in exports
fell by 1.2 percentage points over the previous year’s level, whereas rate of growth in
imports picked up by 2.4 percentage points, this made the gap between import and
export growth narrowed as compared with the previous year. But owing to a still
accelerated export growth and the large base gap between import and export in the
past, trade surplus in 2006 still reached a record high of US$177.47 billion, up by a
year-on-year of 74%.
China's Foreign Trade Development in 2006
US$100m
%
1200
35
1000
30
25
800
20
600
15
400
10
200
5
0
0
Jan
Exports
Feb
Mar
Imports
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Monthly growth of exports
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Monthly growth of imports
(II) Proportion of electromechanical and high-tech exports rose, whereas exports
of high-energy consuming, environmental-harmful and resource-intensive
products have been constrained.
In 2006, China’s export of electromechanical products totaled US$549.44 billion,
up by 28.8%, and export of high-tech products totaled US$281.49 billion, up by 29%.
The export of traditional staple commodities maintained its good momentum of
growth, of which the export of textiles totaled US$48.8 billion, up by 18.7%, of
clothes totaled US$95.19 billion, up by 28.9%. Owing to the adjusting in export tax
rebates, imposing tariffs on certain commodities and supplementing the catalogue of
prohibited commodities in processing trade, the export of high-energy consuming,
environmental-harmful and resource-intensive products have been constrained. The
export of crude oil, refined oil, coal, aluminum not forged or rolled fell by 21.4%,
11.9%,11.7% and 8.1% respectively.
(III) Import of primary commodities grew rapidly whilst import of
electromechanical products accelerated
Owing to robust domestic demand, China’s import of primary commodities grew
rapidly. The total primary imports in 2006 as a whole reached US$187.14 billion, up
by 26.7%. A marked increase was seen in imports of iron ore sand, crude oil and
refined oil, which grew by 18.6%, 14.5% and15.7%. However, the import of certain
primary commodities that are running higher prices in international markets
somewhat fell, for example, the import of unwrought copper and rolled copper fell by
18.6% and the import of unwrought aluminum and rolled aluminum fell by 6.7%. The
import of electromechanical and high-tech products maintained its stronger
momentum of expansion, which grew by a year-on-year of 22.1% and 25.1%. The
import of aircrafts, parts of motor vehicles, print circuit, integrated circuits and
micro-electronic components grew by 71.5%, 34.4%, 32.4% and 30.4%.
(IV) Growth in ordinary trade paced up, whereas in processing trade
decelerate
In 2006, the imports and exports generated by ordinary trade totaled US$749.5
billion, up by 26%, which was 5.1 percentage points higher than that of the previous
year. Of the total, the exports totaled US$416.32 billion, up by 32.1% and the imports
totaled US$333.18 billion, up by 19.1%. The imports and exports generated by
processing trade totaled US$831.88 billion, up by 20.5%, which was 5.1 percentage
points lower than that of the previous year. Of the total, the exports totaled US$510.38
billion, up by 22.5%, and the imports totaled US$321.496 billion, up by 17.3%.
(V) Exports generated by individually-run enterprises exceeded that by
state-owned enterprises (SOEs), imports and exports generated by
foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) still held the biggest share
In 2006, imports and exports generated by individually-run enterprises totaled
US$307.66 billion, which accounted for 17.5% of China’s total imports and exports,
up by 1.7 percentage points over the previous year. Of this total, the exports totaled
US$213.9 billion, up by 43.6%, which was 30 and 17 percentage points higher that
the rate of growth recorded by SOEs and FIEs, the annual value for the first time
exceeded SOEs. Imports and exports generated by FIEs totaled US$1036.44 billion,
which accounted for 58.9% of China’s total imports and exports. FIEs’ exports totaled
US$563.83 billion, up by 26.9%. Imports and exports generated by SOEs came up to
US$416.58 billion, up by 13.8%, of which exports totaled US$191.34 billion, up by
13.4%.
China’s imports and exports by form and by ownership, 2006
(US$100 million)
Value
By
ownership
Change（%）
Value
Change (%)
9690.80
27.2
7916.14
20.0
Ordinary trade
4163.21
32.1
3331.81
19.1
Processing trade
5103.80
22.5
3214.96
17.3
Others
423.79
39.2
1369.37
28.7
SOEs
1913.45
13.4
2252.40
14.2
FIEs
5638.28
26.9
4726.16
22.0
Others
2139.01
43.6
937.58
24.3
Total
By form
Imports
Exports
Item
(VI) Imports and exports from and to major trading partners recorded an
overall growth, the strategy of a multi-outlet market achieved success
In 2006, China’s bilateral trade with its first ten largest trade partners all recorded a
double-digit rate of growth and trade value with 7 partners exceeded US$100 billion.
China’s trade with China Taiwan for the first time topped US$100 billion, to
US$107.844 billion. EU is still China’s first largest trading partner, the US is China’s
largest export market and source of surplus, Japan is China’s largest import source
and Taiwan is the largest source of deficits. In 2006, China’s trade with emerging
markets notched a buoyant pace of growth and bilateral trade with Brazil, India and
South Africa grew by 37%, 32.97% and 35.6%. In 2006, trade with countries and
regions other than the top ten trade partners accounted for 20.3% of China’s total
imports and exports, up from 18.5% in 2005.
China’s major trading partners, 2006
(US$ 100 million)
Export
Rank Country/region
Import
Value
Change (%) Rank Country/region
Total
9690.7
27.2
1
US
2034.7
24.9
2
EU
1819.8
3
China HK
4
Value
Change (%)
Total
7916.1
20.0
1
Japan
1157.2
15.2
26.6
2
EU
903.2
22.7
1553.9
24.8
3
ROK
897.8
16.9
Japan
916.4
9.1
4
ASEAN
895.3
19.4
5
ASEAN
713.1
28.8
5
China Taiwan
871.1
16.6
6
ROK
445.3
26.8
6
US
592.1
21.8
7
China Taiwan
207.4
25.3
7
Australia
193.2
19.3
8
Russia
158.3
19.8
8
Russia
175.5
10.5
9
Canada
155.2
33.1
9
Saudi Arabia
150.8
23.2
10
India
145.8
63.2
10 Brazil
129.2
29.3
II. Performance and features of China’s Foreign trade in the first
quarter of 2007
In the first quarter of 2007, China’s foreign trade maintained its growing
momentum that started in the second half of 2006, with imports and exports totaled
US$457.74 billion, up by 23.2% over the same period of previous year. Exports of
major competitive commodities mostly continued to show a rapid growth, whereas
imports of important energy and resource products expanded rapidly.
(I) Imports and exports continued to show rapid growth
In the first quarter, China’s exports totaled US$252.09 billion, an increase of 27.8%
over the same period of last year. The imports totaled US$205.65 billion, up by 18.2%,
taking the surplus to US$46.44 billion, up by 99.4%. Owing to a late Spring Festival,
exports in March reached US$83.43 billion, rose by 6.9%, marking a broadly decline
as compared with January and February and taking the surplus to US$6.87 billion.
(II) Exports of competitive commodities continued to show growth, imports of
resource products grew rapidly
Exports of commodities, in which China has marked competitive advantages, such
as mechanical and electrical products, textiles and clothes, shoes, furniture and
containers, all showed a faster growth. Exports of mechanical and electrical products
rose by 28.5%, garments and accessories rose by 17.5%, shoe products rose by 16.7%,
furniture exports rose by 23.9% and container exports mushroomed by 112.7%.
Exports of coal, crude oil, unforged aluminum and other resource products fell by
31.9%, 70.3% and 51%. In terms of staple commodities, imports of plastic in primary
shape, iron ore and refined ore, unforged aluminum and rolled aluminum, log grew by
11.9%, 23.4%, 58% and18.8%.
(III) Ordinary trade still posted a stronger growth than processing trade, FIEs and
individually-run enterprises showed a considerably higher growth in imports and exports as
compared with SOEs
In the first quarter, imports and exports generated by ordinary trade totaled
US$199.74 billion, up by 27.4%, of which exports totaled US$108.12 billion, up by
31.9% and imports totaled US$91.61 billion, up by 22.5%. Imports and exports
generated by processing trade totaled US$211.58 billion, up by 18.8%, of which
exports totaled US$133.03 billion, up by 24% and imports totaled US$78.56 billion,
up by 10.9%.
In the first quarter, imports and exports generated by SOEs totaled US$115.57
billion, up by 14.7% over the level achieved in the year-earlier period. Imports and
exports generated by FIEs totaled US$270.26 billion, up by 23.3%, of which exports
grew by 26.8%. Imports and exports generated by individually-run enterprises totaled
US$81.92 billion, up by 36.3%, of which exports grew by 40.3%. Its share in China’s
total imports and exports rose by 3 percentage points over the level achieved in the
year-earlier period.
(IV) Trade with major partners continued to grow
Benefited from a sustained improvement in world economic and trade conditions,
in the first quarter, China’s trade with EU grew by 30.3%, of which the rate of growth
in exports grew by 34.5%, to US$51.54 billion, EU has become China’s largest export
market instead of the US. China’s trade with Japan, ASEAN, China HK, ROK and
Russia grew by 15.2%, 24.8%, 24.8%, 20.4% and 27.7%. Meanwhile, the
year-on-year rate of growth in exports to the US has fallen by 9 percentage points, to
20.4%, while imports from the US continued to show a faster growth of 19.1%.
III. Outlook for China’s foreign trade in 2007
In 2007, world economy and trade will carry on its cyclical expansion, domestic
economy will maintain its steady and faster growth on the basis of optimized structure,
improved returns and energy saving and consumption reduction. In face of a still
favorable overall environment, China’s foreign trade for 2007 as a whole is set to
maintain its buoyant pace of growth.
(I) World economy and trade will carry on its momentum of growth
According to World Economic Outlook, which issued by IMF in April, 2007, world
economy grew by 5.4% in 2006, but growth may mildly slow down to around 4.9% in
2007, nevertheless a still higher pace. The US economy in 2007 will be somewhat on
a weakening course, driven by the downturn in the housing market, but a recession is
unlikely to occur and its impacts will be limited. In euro zone, private spending and
corporate investment in recent years are growing fast, unemployment rate is falling
and intra-trade is expanding rapidly. Despite a rising interest rate and strengthening
euro dollar, euro zone economy is set to grow rapidly. Driven by exports, equipment
investment in Japan is picking up, employment and private spending is slightly
improving, and a better growth may be recorded as compared with the previous year.
Other major economies in Asia, pushed up by strong export expansion and upturn
domestic demand, will continue to show a growing momentum. In general, world
economy will remain on a steady growing course.
Column I：Threats to the world economic growth: whether the US economy
will move toward a recession?
Currently, there are different views on whether the US economy will move toward
a recession. Roach, chief global economist for Morgan Stanley, warned in the second
half of 2006 that the world didn’t get ready for a US economic recession. At the
beginning of 2007, Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, said that
the US could fall into recession in the second half or by the end of this year.
Recently, people again has mused publicly about the possibility of a recession,
analyst from Blue Chip Economic Indicators, an US forecasting institution,
down-revised the prediction for the US economic growth in 2007-2008, Plosser,
president of Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia later admitted a
less-than-expected US economy, joint survey made by Bloomberg News and Los
Angeles Times shows that most Americans think that the US economy will fall into
recession within the coming 12 months. A similar survey was done by Los Angeles
Times alone in September 2000, 64% Americans at that time anticipated that US
economy would shrink, and three months after the outcome was announced, the US
economy began to decline.
However, the US government is optimistic about the economy, Bernanke, the
Federal Reserve chairman, noted that “uncertainty is increasing” about US economic
outlook, but the US economy will maintain its growing momentum, no worries about
recession. He thinks that the US economy has been on a slow-moving course since
2006, which only means that growth mode has changing from “a rapid expansion” in
the preceding years to “a more sustained growth”. Federal Reserve forecast that the
US GDP will expand by 2.5%-3% in 2007.
According to statistics given by UNCTAD and WTO, cross-border investment and
world trade expanded robustly in 2006, of which global FDI inflows grew by 34.3%
and world merchandise trade grew by 8%. Owing to markedly improved corporate
profits, out of consideration for market expansion and cost reduction, investment and
M&A by transnational corporations (TNCs) continued to expand. Driven by a growth
in world economy and cross-border investment, world commodity market remained
buoyant with overall price increases, and trading volume advanced significantly over
the previous year. In 2007, investment by TNCs will continue to steam ahead, demand
in world commodity markets will remain strong, and world trade is expected to
continue its rapid growth.
Column II：China’s iron ore imports and recent dispute with India
For the time being, Australia, Brazil and India are three largest sources for China’s
iron ore imports. In recent years, iron ore prices have risen substantially in world
market. In the negotiations for iron ore prices at the end of 2006, Chinese steel
enterprises represented by Baosteel first signed an agreement on 9.5% year-on-year
rise in the price of powder iron ore with Brazil's CVRD, Australia’s BHP Billiton
and Rio Tinto, the world’s three largest suppliers. Japanese and Korea steel mills
also accepted the price gains.
Later, India government announced on Feb.28, 2007 that it would impose 300
rupee (around US$7) /ton tariff on its iron ore exports from Mar.1st. This led to an
immediate price increase in China’s spot imports.
Despite its lower grade, India’s iron ore enjoys cheap price and short transport
distance, and this has a strong appeal to China’s small and medium-sized steel mills
that use lower-graded ores. In recent years, China’s iron imports from India have
increased rapidly and its share in China’s total iron ore imports comes up year by
year. In 2006, China’s imports of iron ore totalled 326.3 million tons, of which
imports from India totalled 74.76 million tons, accounting for 23% of the total
imports.
Reasons behind India’s rising tariff on iron ore exports are its growing demand for
resources owing to a rapid development in domestic steel industry, on the other hand
India shows great interests in China's huge market, it hopes to gain more profits by
forcing up the prices. However, higher tariff has weakened the competitiveness of
India’s iron ore and will possibly press China to turn to Brazil and Australia for
partial imports. Therefore, India’s move has been resolutely opposed by industries of
both countries.
Some problems amid the current development of world economy and trade cannot
be ignored. First is some sub-prime mortgages in the US housing market have gone
out of business, due to over-consumption and over-dependent on capital inflows,
financial risks are getting higher and this could affect the global economic stability.
Second is the still turbulent situation in world’s hot spots, impacts of bad weather and
other natural factors are hard to predict. At present, world oil prices are still running
high, although price gains in commodities like nonferrous metals slowed down, a
stronger fluctuation is likely to occur and there will be growing concerns over
inflation in many countries. Third is the increasingly serious trade protectionism,
some bigger economies frequently resort to threat of trade protectionism, which
terribly disturbs a sound development of global trade. The unclear outlook for Doha
round of talks will possibly intensify the trade protectionism.
(II) China’s national economy will maintain its stable growth
China’s economy grew by 10.7% year on year in 2006, a fourth consecutive year in
which economic growth outpaced 10%. Economy continued to show rapid growth in
the first quarter of 2007, retail sales accelerated, investment growth eased, prices
remained roughly stable, value-added output, volume of goods transported, business
survey index and consumer confidence index all remained in its higher position as
compared with the same period of previous years. The government will further
reinforce and improve macro controls, double its efforts to adjust economic structures
and change the pattern of growth, promote reform and self-innovation, highlight
resource-saving and environment protection. China’s national economy is thus
forecast to continue its stable and high-gear growth in 2007.
In terms of demand and supply, domestic supply of coal, power, oil and transport
remained stable, fixed asset investment and FDI inflows continued to expand, output
capacity and export supply for major commodities remained sufficient, domestic
market order has been improved, growth in household income and consumption
somewhat accelerated, import demand for energy, raw materials, machinery
equipment rose steadily. All these will provide a sound foundation and guarantee for a
sustained growth in foreign trade in 2007.
(III) China’s foreign trade will continue to show rapid growth
In consideration of various factors, China’s merchandise trade is forecast to
continue its faster growth in 2007 with total imports and exports exceeding US$2100
billion, up by around 20%.
China’s rapid economic growth and foreign trade expansion makes more and more
contribution to world economic development. Since its WTO accession, level of
opening-up in China’s domestic market steadily raised, import and export trading
rights fully liberalized, general tariff level has been cut down year by year, to 9.8% in
2007, and non-tariff barriers has been gradually eliminated. Amid WTO’s first trade
policy review of China in 2006, China’s behavior in carrying out its commitments
won widely favorable comments from WTO members. Apart from carrying out its
commitments for market liberalization, China has adopted various measures to
expand exports. In 2006, rate of growth in China’s imports was 6 percentage points
higher than the growth notched for global imports, increase in China’s imports
accounted for 8.7% of the total increase in world import volumes. Since 2007, China
has eliminated administration of automatic import licensing on some raw materials
and electromechanical products, and will further promote import facilitation, actively
expand imports, increase imports of energy, raw materials, advanced equipments and
key components. This will create conditions for relevant countries and regions to
expand their exports to China, through which it can push up the economy and
employment in these countries and in turn help to lift the global economy.
Column III：Policies and measures promulgated to encourage imports
In order to achieve a balanced development in foreign trade and further simplify
the import procedure, Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of
Customs of the People's Republic of China jointly released the Catalogue of
Commodities Subject to Automatic Import Licensing, which began to be applied
from April1st. The renewed catalogue eliminated automatic import licensing on 338
tax items including steel, steel billet, plastic materials, some machinery equipments,
instruments and other electromechanical products. According to the new catalogue,
government will apply automatic import licensing on 12 categories (140
commodities), including chicken, vegetable oil, coal, copper concentrate, PTA,
tobacco, natural rubber, waste paper, acetate tow, copper and aluminium.
From July 1st, 2007, examination and approval of domestic sale of bonded
materials and parts imported by processing trade enterprises has been transferred to a
lower level, competent department of commerce, who formerly issued Processing
Trade Operation Approval Certificate, will do the eexamination and approval in
accordance with the stipulations of Interim Provisions on the Examination and
Approval of Domestic Sale of Bonded Materials and Parts Imported for Processing
Trade. But when domestic sales of commodities that are in the control of quotas,
license and other special administration, it should be examined and approved by
department at the provincial level in charge of commerce or Ministry of Commerce.
China also actively support imports through tax policies. From Nov.1st,2006,
temporary tariff rates on 26 resource products, such as coal, refined oil and alumina
will be cut to 0-3 per cent. By end-2006, Ministry of Commerce and State
Administration of Taxation jointly released China's Encouraging Technology Import
Catalogue, the imports of 149 technologies which are listed in the catalogue will
enjoy reduction of or exemption from income tax. Imports of advanced technologies
on favourable terms can apply for income tax exemption concerning foreign
enterprises in accordance with relevant procedures.
In addition, 101st Session of China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) which
was held in April 2007 first set up import exhibition hall, and 314 enterprises from
36 countries and regions participated the exhibition.
Growth and forecasts of China’s imports and exports
(US$100 million)
Exports
Imports & Exports
Year
Value
Change (%)
Value
Imports
Change
Value
(%)
Change
Balance
(%)
2002
6207.7
21.8
3256.0
22.4
2951.7
21.2
304.3
2003
8509.9
37.1
4382.3
34.6
4127.6
39.8
254.7
2004
11545.5
35.7
5933.3
35.4
5612.3
36.0
321.0
2005
14219.1
23.2
7619.5
28.4
6599.5
17.6
1020.0
2006
17606.9
23.8
9690.7
27.2
7916.1
20.0
1774.6
2007.1-3.
4577.4
23.2
2520.9
27.8
2056.5
18.2
464.4
2007*
21300
21.0
*Forecasts
Annex I:
World Economic and Trade Situations
I. Overall situation of world economy and trade
According to the World Economic Outlook, which issued by IMF in April 2006,
world economy in 2006 carried on its robust growth with an average rate of growth to
5.4%, higher than 4.9% in 2004. The US economic growth accelerated and still plays
a leading role among developed countries. Euro zone economy picked up markedly,
Japanese economy also paced up, Asia developing countries continued its higher-gear
growth, with China and India coming first on the list. Benefited from strong demand
for resource products, Latin America, Middle East, Central Asia and Africa all
maintained a faster economic growth.
In 2006, the integration in world financial market further deepened. Developed
countries are still the main force in market transaction, major index basically
maintained its rising momentum and reached new highs by the end of the year. The
dollar depreciated in general and fell by around 5% against major currencies over the
year. Interest rates in Euro zone and Japan somewhat increased.
Table 1: Trend of World Economic and Trade Growth, 2005-2008 (%)
2005
2006
2007
2008
4.9
5.4
4.9
4.9
2.5
3.1
2.5
2.7
United States
3.2
3.3
2.3
2.8
Euro zone
1.4
2.6
2.3
2.3
Japan
1.9
2.2
2.3
1.9
7.5
7.9
7.5
7.1
7.4
9.2
7.0
7.4
6.1
7.4
4.7
5.7
12.1
15.0
12.5
12.2
5.6
8.4
5.5
5.8
11.2
10.6
10.4
9.9
World economy
Developed countries
Emerging markets and developing countries
World trade
Imports: Developed countries
Emerging markets and developing countries
Exports: Developed countries
Emerging markets and developing countries
Notes: figures for 2007 and 2008 are estimates.
Source: World Economic Outlook (IMF), April, 2007
In 2006, world merchandise trade expanded rapidly. According to WTO statistics,
world merchandise trade grew by 8% in volume and 15% in value, to US$11.76
trillion. The first five trading economies all notched a two-digit rate of growth. The
major driving force behind was the persistent price rising which lifted the trade in
crude oil and other primary products. Pushed by the recovery in global investment,
transaction in capital goods grew markedly.
Ten leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2006
(US$ bn )
Exporters
Value
share
Annual
（%）
change
Germany
1112
9.2
（%）
15
United States
1037
8.6
China
969
Japan
Importers
Value
Share
Annual
（%）
change
United States
1920
15.5
(%)
11
14
Germany
910
7.4
17
8.0
27
China
792
6.4
20
647
5.4
9
UK
601
4.9
17
France
490
4.1
6
Japan
577
4.7
12
Netherlands
462
3.8
14
France
533
4.3
6
UK
443
3.7
15
Italy
436
3.5
13
Italy
410
3.4
10
Netherlands
416
3.4
14
Canada
388
3.2
8
Canada
357
2.9
11
Belgium
372
3.1
11
Belgium
356
2.9
12
12062
100.0
15
World
12380
100.0
14
World
Source: WTO Trade Release, April 12, 2007
In 2006, global inward FDI reached US$1.2 trillion, up by 34.3%. Inflows to
developed countries amounted to US$800.7 billion, an increase of 47.7%. The US
saw its inward FDI reach a total of US$177.3 billion, making it again the largest
recipient among developed countries. The UK was the second largest recipient, with
US$169.8 billion. Inflows to developing countries slowed down, to US$367.7 billion,
up by 10%, Asia is still the largest recipient among developing countries, accounting
for 63% of the total inward FDI to developing economies, with China at the top,
followed by Singapore. FDI inflows to East Europe, CIS and oil producing countries
in Africa surged.
Since 2007, world economy basically carried on its growth momentum in 2006,
still moving on the course of cyclical expansion. Despite the economic slowdown in
the US, growth in Europe, Japan and China will help to lift the global economy
moving stably forward. According to IMF forecasts, the world economy is set to
expand by 4.9%, rate of growth in world merchandise trade will still outpace that in
economy, with trade volume expanding by 7%. Imports and exports notched by
emerging markets and developing countries will maintain its two-digit rate of growth,
100% higher than that of developed countries. Global outward FDI will maintain its
strong momentum of growth and developed countries will remain its leading position
of recipient. Asia will be the largest recipient among developing countries and regions
and inflows to East Asia and CIS will carry on its momentum of fast growth.
Factors that will affect world economic and trade development in 2007 mainly
include:
1. Economic slowdown in the US
As a major driving force behind world economic growth, the US economic
performance always control the pace of growth in global economy. Since the second
half of 2006, debates over whether the US economy will move towards a recession
continues all the time. The first warn came from Roach, chief global economist for
Morgan Stanley, he thinks that the world didn’t get ready for a US economic recession.
Later, Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, also said that the US
could fall into recession in the second half or by the end of 2007. On the contrary, the
US government is optimistic about the economy. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve
chairman, recently noted that “uncertainty is increasing” about US economic outlook,
but the US economy will maintain its growing momentum, no worries about recession.
He thinks that the US economy has been on a weakening slow-moving course since
2006, which only means that growth mode has changing from “a rapid expansion” in
the preceding years to “a more sustained growth”. Federal Reserve forecast that the
US GDP will expand by 2.5%-3% in 2007, the pace of growth will somewhat pick up
in 2008, to 2.75-3%. National Association for Business Economics, a US authoritative
forecasting institution, conducted a survey recently, chief economists of 47 weighty
forecasting institutions generally expect a promising outlook for US economic growth
in 2007 and 2008, and they all think that the growth will be carried on. They forecast
that the economy will expand by 2.8% in 2007. The risks to the inflation are slightly
higher than to the economic slowdown. The latest report issued by IMF down-revised
the US economic forecast in 2007 from 2.9% to 2.2%, a record low in recent 5 years,
but the report also thinks that the US economy is unlikely to fall into a recession, only
a decelerated pace of growth.
Technical innovation and economic globalization is pushing forward the US
industrial upgrading and is the root cause behind rapid economic growth. In mid and
long term perspective, currently many new technologies, particularly bio-technologies
and material technologies are steadily applied to scaled industries, there is still
considerable room for restructuring in economic globalization. Raised allocative
efficiency in technology and resource will still hold up the US economic growth. In a
short time, the US economy mingled hope and fear. The favorable factors involve
decreasing fiscal deficits, decelerated growth in trade deficits, improved job market
and sustained growth in services sectors, whereas the unfavorable factors are a sharp
drop in the housing market and consumption in durable goods like autos. The negative
impact of a downturn in the housing market is most obvious. Sales of new houses fell
by 11% in 2006, dragging down the economic growth by 0.75 percentage points.
However, the downturn in the housing market will unlikely to trigger off an economic
recession. The housing market has a limited impact on consumer sector, one reason is
that substantial fall in housing prices didn’t occur, transaction prices only fell by 5%,
no clear negative wealth effect; another reason is the increase in stockmarket on the
back of improved corporate profits, and the strengthened consumption capability on
the back of rising resident income.
According to IMF, even if the economic slowdown in the US paces up, or falls into
a recession, its impacts will be limited since the slowdown mainly centers on housing
sectors which are not closely related with trade activity, and the negative impacts on
other economies will be smaller as compared with an overall recession. Even if the
US economy falls into a recession, the scope and degree of its impacts differs.
According to IMF calculation, when the annual growth rate of the US economy drops
by 1 percentage point, the rate of growth for Latin America countries will drop by 0.2
percentage point, and the rate of growth for Mexico and Canada will drop by at least
0.4 percentage point, impacts on Africa and Middle East will be minor, only around
0.1 percentage point, impacts on Asia emerging markets (including China) will be
bigger than that on Africa and Middle East, to around 0.12 percentage point. Certainly,
if the downturn in the housing market spreads to consumer and corporate investment
sector, its negative impacts will possibly be bigger, but there isn’t any sign for the
time being.
2. Grim situation for trade protectionism
According to the statistics issued by the US Department of Commerce, the US
merchandise imports and exports in 2006 totaled US$2892.26 billion, up by 12% over
2005, of which the exports totaled US$1037.14 billion, up by 14.5%, and the imports
totaled US$1855.12 billion, up by 10.9%, trade deficits reached US$817.98 billion,
up by 6.6%. Rate of growth in the US trade deficit grew from 23.5% in 2004 and
17.3% in 2005 to one-digit number, accounting for 6.2% of GDP, although a
somewhat decline, still reached a new high in 5 years. The US Congress always seizes
the problem of trade deficit and makes an issue of it. Various proposals have been
made to press the Bush government to solve the problem of imbalanced trade position.
The US Manufacturing Trade Commission criticized the government for inadequate
use of the US market accession as a means for trade negotiation and easily gives
go-ahead to other countries. House of Representatives of the US Congress insists on
that the US policy needs a fundamental change, Bush administration is required to
submit a plan and to explain how the government will settle the trade deficits with
China, Japan and EU. In addition, in order to weaken the government capability of
making trade policies, the Congress is likely to impose barriers against the extending
of Trade Promotion Authority that will become due in July 2007(Trade Promotion
Authority stipulates that Congress has to approve or reject the trade agreements that
have been signed by the president with other countries, but it cannot revise the
agreements and delay the review process).
In 2006, the US trade deficits with China continued to widen rapidly, and again
caused dissatisfaction of some congressmen and interest group, who appealed for a
tougher trade policy against China. Since 2007, a number of proposals concerning
trade with China and RMB exchange rate have been submitted to the Congress, one
proposal, which was jointly put forward by some democratic and republic
congressmen in the Senate, advocates canceling of China’s Permanent Normal Trade
Relations Status, moreover recently the US has brought a suit to WTO against China’s
IPRs protection.
Apart from intensified trade protectionism against China, the US criticism over
other trade partners are also increasing. The US self-determined a blacklist in its
Trade Report 2007, the attack targeted on EU and 63 trade partners who imposed
trade barriers against the US exports, for example it criticized EU for granting huge
subsidy to Airbus, India for imposing excessive higher import tariff against imports of
wine and alcohol from the US. The report claims to adopt “all possible ways” to end
this “discrimination” against the US products. The intensified trade protectionism will
possibly have a substantial negative impact on world trade and its movements should
be closely watched on.
3. Higher oil prices and price gains in agricultural products brought more
inflationary pressures
Since 2003, world oil prices have kept rising for nearly 5 years, although there has
been slight adjustments during this period, the overall trend is rapid increasing.
Jan-Aug. 2006, world oil prices rising persistently, New York oil futures in August
once reached US$80/per barrel. But from mid and last ten-day period of August, oil
prices began to fall, and currently it ranges around US$65 per barrel. Oil prices are
affected by market demand, output capacity, geopolitics and other various factors, its
forming mechanism is complicated. As for the future trend of oil prices, some analysis
holds that there is still room for a 5%-10% fall, some people also thinks that the
current falling oil prices are temporary. Anyhow, higher oil prices are a weighty factor
for global inflationary pressures.
Years’ of robust growth in world economy has led to a strong demand for
agricultural products, world grain stock is now in its 30-year low. In 2007, price gains
in agricultural products (including maize, palm oil, sugar and other crops) will
possibly become a new source for inflationary pressures, and the major manifestation
is the increase in food prices, one of the reasons behind rising food prices is the
emerging demand for biofuel and ethanol, for they can be extracted from maize, palm
oil, sugar and other crops. Economists generally think that pace of increase in the US
food prices in 2007 will be faster than the overall inflationary growth, and they
believe that factors resulted in rising food prices will continue to exist. The situation
will get even worse if more crops are used to produce ethanol and other fuels. Hit by a
price surge in crude oil, farm goods and other resource products, global inflationary
pressures will further increase, price gains in major economies will possibly exceed
the upper control limit set by the central bank, and this will trigger off a new round of
monetary contraction.
4. Global excess liquidity increased the international financial risks
Since 2004, although tight monetary policy has been adopted by major economies,
owing to a rapid increase in global foreign exchange reserve, money supply in major
countries and regions accelerated, global excess liquidity still exists, which increased
the instability in world financial market. Asset prices of real estate, security, gold, oil,
basic metals rose rapidly, ultimately all these need the support of liquidity. Once the
excess liquidity suspends, it will be hard for the current higher asset prices to keep up,
and this in turn will have a negative impact on international financial market and
world economy. Therefore, the issue of global excess liquidity should also be closely
noted.
II. Economic situation and outlook for major countries and regions
The US: the US GDP grew by 3.3% in 2006, ranking first in major developed
countries. Strong domestic demand injected plenty of vigour to the economy. Growth
in exports outpaced that in imports, which added new impetus to economic growth. A
booming stock market was still seen against the background of 17th consecutive
interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Index broke through the
record high in 2000. The continued employment growth shows that the US economy
is still in the phase of cyclical growth. Starting from 2007, the US economic growth
somewhat slowed down and inflationary pressures went up. The industrial output in
January fell by 0.5%, the largest contraction since September 2005. The consumer
confidence index in March was 107.2, the lowest record since November 2006.
Expectations index that reflects consumers’ view on economic outlook in the coming
six months dropped from 93.8 in February to 86.9 in March. According to the
statistics from Department of Commerce, merchandise imports and exports in January
totaled US$236.25 billion, of which exports totaled US$85.78 billion, up by 13.8%
over the same period of previous year, imports totaled US$150.47 billion, up by 3.8%,
trade deficit shrank by 7%, to US$64.69 billion.
For the time being, the biggest risk to the US economy is the on-going momentum
of a cooled housing market. According to the statistics from U.S. Census Bureau, the
newly started housing projects in every month of the first quarter fell by 37.8%,
28.5% and 23%, and the sales of new houses in the first two months fell by 20% and
18.3%. S&P home-price index shows that home price in January fell by 0.7% as
compared with the same period of previous year, a fastest monthly fall since 1994, in
addition, home price in 20 big cities of the US fell by 0.2% in January. Bernanke,
chairman of the Federal Reserve, also admits that within a short period of time the US
housing market is still full of uncertain factors. In general, the momentum of the US
economic expansion is expected to continue, but with a decelerated pace. IMF
forecast that the US economic growth in 2007 will come to 2.3%.
Euro zone: Strongly pushed up by the two “engines”, i.e. domestic demand and
exports, the euro zone GDP grew by 2.6% in 2006, a fastest pace since 2000.
Benefited from the reform in labor market and development of new production areas
in the past a few years, domestic demand has become a major driving force behind
euro zone economic growth. As the economic situation took a favorable turn, euro
zone employment further improved, the total number of jobs created in 2006 reached
2 million, employment population grew by 1.4%, highest growth record since 2001,
whereas unemployment fell to 7.4% in January 2007, lowest record since 1993. Euro
zone economic growth in the first quarter of 2007 will possibly decelerated since
German began to increase value-added tax in 2007, but the economic outlook is still
promising. According to the latest forecast made by European Commission, euro zone
economic growth will reach 2.4% in 2007, British economy is expected to grow by
2.9% in 2007, up from 2.7 in the previous year.
Japan: Japanese economy maintained its momentum of growth in 2006, real GDP
grew by 2.2%, and the rate of growth notched in the fourth quarter was 5.5%, highest
quarterly growth in three years. The driving force behind the economic growth was
mainly from sustained strong capital expenditure and outward demand, in particular
growth in exports to the US. There are indications that personal consumption, which
accounts for 55% of the economy, began to recovery. In the first quarter of 2007,
Japanese economy grew robustly, personal consumption, which has always been
regarded as the weakest part concerning the current economic resurgence, grew at an
average rate of 1.1% in January and February, higher than the average rate of 0.9% in
the fourth quarter of 2006. According to the end-January forecast made by the
Japanese government, personal consumption is expected to grow by 1.6% in fiscal
year 2007, much higher than 0.9% in 2006. The short-term growth outlook for Japan’s
economy will mainly depend on whether this consumption rebound could be carried
on. Japan’s unemployment rate has dropped to a record low in 9 years, as output
capacity has been further expanded and more jobs have been created. Success rate of
job application reached a record high since 1992. The improved job market and
income will help to expand spending. IMF forecast that Japan’s economy in 2007 will
expand by 2.3%, slightly higher than in the previous year.
Developing countries and regions: Lifted by China and India, economy in
emerging markets and developing countries maintained their strong momentum of
growth. Most countries notched a two-digit growth in imports and exports. A faster
growth was particularly achieved by those developing countries that are rich in
resource products. In 2007, favorable factors backing the economic growth will still
exist. IMF forecast that economic booms in China and India will continue, rate of
growth is expected to reach 10% and 8.4%, Latin America economy is forecast to
grow by 4.9%, Middle East by 5.5%, CIS by 7%, Central and East Europe by 5.5%
and Africa by 6.2%.
Annex II:
Macro Economic Situation of China
I. A review of China’s macro economic situation in 2006
China’s economy maintained its steady and faster growth in 2006 and achieved the
goal of a good start for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. For 2006 as a whole, GDP
reached 20940.7 billion yuan, based on comparable prices rose by 10.7% year-on-year,
which was 0.3 percentage points faster as compared with the previous year. Of this
total, the value-added of the primary industry was 2470 billion yuan, up 5.0%, that of
the secondary industry was 10200.4 billion yuan, up 12.5%, and that of the tertiary
industry was 8270.3 billion yuan, up 10.3%.
Overall, China’s macro economic performance in 2006 is good, it has the following
features:
1. Economic performance was stable. Break down by quarters, rate of GDP
growth was 10.4%, 11.5%, 10.6% and 10.4%. The central government timely
promulgated a series of macro-control policies in view of the problems amid
economic performance, which effectively avoided a turn from an over-fast economy
to an over-heated economy, averted big ups and downs.
2. Agricultural production remains robust. The full-year grain output reached
497.46 million tons, up by 2.8%. Cotton output reached 6.73 million tons, up by
17.8%. Livestock husbandry continued its growth despite the affects from epidemic,
output of meat and egg reached 80 million and 29.5 million tons, up by 4.5% and 3%
over the previous year.
3. Industrial production grew rapidly. Total value-added of industry grew by
12.5% over the previous year. Growth in industrial value added above designated size
was 16.6%, of this total, heavy industry grew by 17.9% and light industry grew by
13.8%; sales/output ratio reached 98.1%, realized profit totaled 1878.4 billion, up by
31%.
4. Growth in fixed investment remains stronger, but with a downward trend,
structure has been further improved. The total investment in fixed assets was
10987 billion yuan, up 24% year-on-year and this was 2.0 percentage points lower as
compared with the previous year. Of the total, the urban investment in fixed assets
was 9347.2 billion yuan, up by 24.5% and this was 2.7 percentage points lower as
compared with the previous year. Rural investment grew by 21.3% and this was 3.3
percentage points higher as compared with the previous year.
5. Domestic market sales further paced up. The total retail sales of consumer
goods amounted to 7641 billion yuan, up 13.7% and this was 1.7 percentage points
higher over the previous year.
6. Strong trade performance continued, FDI maintained its higher level of
inflows. The total imports and exports reached US$1760.7 billion in value terms, up
23.8% over the previous year. Of this total, the exports was US$969.1 billion, up
27.2%, and the imports was US$791.6 billion, up 20%. Trade accounts showed a
favorable balance of US$177.5 billion, increased by US$75.5 billion. The actually
utilized FDI was US$69.47 billion, fell by 4.1%. China’s outward investment totaled
US$16.1 billion, up by 31.6%. China’s foreign exchange reserve in 2006 reached a
new high of US$1000 billion, to US$1066.344 billion by the year end, increased by
US$247.444 billion as compared with the end-2005.
7. Growth in consumer price was lower. The full year’s consumer price showed a
1.5% increase, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous year.
Of the total, consumer price in cities and in rural areas all grew by 1.5%, the full
year’s retail price grew by 1.0%. Purchasing price of raw materials, fuels and power
grew by 6%. The ex-factory price of industrial products grew by 3%. Price of
investment in fixed assets grew by 1.2%.
Up to 2006, China’s economy has maintained its over 10% rate of growth for four
consecutive years and no clear sign of inflation was seen, thus China has made a
sound progress towards its goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.
However, a number of problems still exist amid China’s macro economic performance
and should be paid a good deal of attention. Structural contradiction remains sharp,
for example the proportion of primary, secondary and service industries was irrational,
imbalanced growth between town and country, east and west regions, risks of
investment rebounding still exists, extensive economic growth, the situation of saving
energy and reducing pollutants discharge remains grim.
II. Analysis of China’s macro economic situation in the first quarter
of 2007
In the first quarter of 2007, China’s economy continued to grow rapidly, although
with a rather fast speed, generally speaking, it is still within a healthy, high-gear and
stable range, GDP reached 5028.7 billion yuan, up 11.1% or 0.7 percentage points
higher over the same period of previous year. Of this total, the value-added of the
primary industry was 363.1 billion yuan, up 4.4%, that of the secondary industry was
2555.2 billion yuan, up 13.2% and that of the tertiary industry was 2110.4 billion
yuan, up 9.9%. A sustained and faster growth was seen in consumption, investment,
imports and exports.
1. Growth in consumer spending accelerated. In the first quarter, the total retail
sales of consumer goods amounted to 2118.8 billion yuan, up 14.9% and this was 2.1
percentage points higher over the same period last year. The total retail sales of
consumer goods in cities amounted to 1433.3 billion yuan, up 15.5%; that in rural
areas reached 688.5 billion yuan, up 13.7%. Upgrading of consumption structure
continued to accelerate. For wholesale and retail trade above designated size, gross
sales for automobile, gold, silver and jewelry, and furniture grew by 38.5%, 37.9%
and 37.6% separately. The big increase in household income is a major factor in
pushing up the consumption.
2. Growth in fixed investment somewhat eased. In the first quarter, the total
investment in fixed assets was 1752.6 billion yuan, up 23.7%, this was 4 percentage
points lower as compared with the same period of previous year. Of the total
investment, the urban investment in fixed assets was 1454.4 billion yuan, up 25.3%,
this was 4.5 percentage points lower than the year-earlier period. The rural investment
in fixed assets was 298.2 billion yuan, up 16.7% and this was 1.4 percentage points
lower than the year-earlier period. Amid the urban investment in fixed assets,
investment in primary industry grew by 20.3%, that in secondary industry grew by
27% and in tertiary industry grew by 24%. By sectors, the investment in nonferrous
metals mining and dressing, smelting and pressing grew by 54.8%, investment in
nonmetal minerals mining and dressing grew by 41.2%, and investment in railway
transport grew by 27%. The actually utilized FDI (excluding banking, security and
insurance) in the first quarter was US$15.9 billion, up 11.6% as compared with the
level of the year-earlier period.
3. Growth in industrial production accelerated. In the first quarter, the value
added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 18.3%, which was
1.6 percentage points higher as compared with the same period of previous year. Of
this total, the growth of heavy industry was 19.6%, and that of light industry was
15.6%. Breakdown by products, the production of electricity, raw coal and steel grew
by 15.5%, 14.8% and 26.2%. A faster growth was seen in corporate profits. Total
profits realized by industrial enterprises above the designated size in the first two
months reached 293.2 billion yuan, up 43.8%, which was 22 percentage points higher
as compared with the same period of previous year.
4. Foreign trade maintained its rapid growth. In the first quarter, the total
imports and exports reached US$457.74 billion, up 23.3% and 2.5 percentage points
lower over the same period last year. The exports was US$252.09 billion, up 27.8%
and the imports was US$205.65 billion, up 18.2%. Trade surplus stood at US$46.44
billion, increased by almost 100%.
5. Market price somewhat rose. In the first quarter, the general consumer price
grew by 2.7% and this was 1.5 percentage points higher than the year-earlier period.
Of the total, price in cities grew by 2.5% and in rural areas grew by 3.1%. By
category, price for food grew by 6.2%, price for housing grew by 3.8%, and other
commodities roughly remained stable. In the first quarter, the retail prices grew by
2.1% and this was 1.6 percentage points higher than the year-earlier period, ex-factory
prices of industrial products grew by 2.9%, the same as the year-earlier period, prices
of raw materials, fuel and power grew by 4.1% and this was 2.4 percentage points
lower than the year-earlier period.
6. Monetary credit grew faster. By end-March, the balance of broad money (M2)
stood at 36.41 trillion yuan, increasing year-on-year by 17.3%, which was 1.5
percentage points lower than the year-earlier period and 0.3 percentage points higher
than end-2006. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 12.79 trillion yuan, up by
19.8%, which was 7.1 percentage points higher than the year-earlier period and 2.3
percentage points higher than end-2006. The cash flow (M0) was 2.74 trillion yuan,
up by 16.7%, which was 19.8 percentage points higher than the year-earlier period. By
end-March, outstanding loans denominated in RMB in all financial institutions
reached 23.96 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.3% and this was 1.5 percentage points
higher than the year-earlier period. By end-March, the balance of foreign exchange
reserve reached US$1202 billion, up by 37.4%.
III. Outlook for China’s macro economic conditions in 2007
On the back of benign economic and policy environment, China’s macro economy
will continue its fast and stable growth in 2007.
Firstly, macro controls will take further effect, which will facilitate a stable
economic growth. Since 2003, China has made a series of adjustments over financial,
monetary and industrial policies, which ensured a growth pattern of higher rate and
lower inflation. In 2007, macro controls will be further strengthened and improved in
order to maintain a steady economic performance. In the first quarter, People’s Bank
of China raised the savings reserve ratio twice and interest rates once, this shows that
Chinese government maintains sharp vigilance over problems amid economic
performance, so policies will be timely promulgated in order to stabilize economic
fluctuation. Next, Chinese government will continue to adopt prudent fiscal and
monetary policies, stick to the policy of expanding domestic demand, in particular
consumption demand; maintain a moderate growth in fixed asset investment, redouble
the efforts to optimize the investment structure and improve the investment benefit.
Secondly, policy of scientific concept of development and building up a
coordinated society will be further carried out, strategy of building up a new socialist
countryside, large-scale development of the western region, revitalizing old industrial
base in northeast China and emerging of central region will be steadily promoted. In
2007, Chinese government will reinforce its support to self-innovation, saving energy,
reducing pollutants discharge and controlling pollution, which will inject new impetus
to economic growth and promote the industrial upgrading and transformation in mode
of economic growth. Meanwhile, the systematic improvement and input increase in
social security will provide a sound guarantee for growth in personal consumption,
which will strengthen the impetus of consumption on economic growth.
Thirdly, systematic reform in major areas and key sectors will be further deepened.
Reforms on state-owned-enterprises, monopolized sectors, financial and tax system
will pace up, the systematic environment for economic growth will be further
improved.
Fourthly, world economy and trade will maintain a faster growth, China’s economic
development still faces a favorable international environment. In 2007, the economic
growth in major economies showed a good momentum, international organization
generally forecast that world economy will maintain a faster growth. On the back of a
still benign export climate, China’s foreign trade is expected to carry on its rapid
growth.
Without doubt, China’s economic development in 2007 still faces a lot of
difficulties and challenges. China’s economy faces some deep-rooted problems, for
example, irrational economic structure, extensive mode of growth, imperfect system
and mechanism, these problems remain to be settled thoroughly. The economy is
moving towards targeted goals of macro controls, but at great cost, disequilibrium of
balance of payments, excess liquidity, and risks to an over-heated economy from an
over-fast one. In 2007, there is still a possibility of a steep fluctuation in world
commodity prices, which may affect China’s stable economic growth. These
unfavorable factors should not under-estimated.
China’s major macroeconomic indicators, 2005-2007.1-3(%)
Indicators
GDP growth
Growth in industrial value added above
designated size
2005
2006
1Qtr, 2007
10.4
10.7
11.1
16.4
16.6
18.3
Growth in fixed Investment
26.0
24.0
23.7
Growth in retail sales of consumer goods
12.9
13.7
14.9
Export growth
28.4
27.2
23.3
Import growth
17.6
20.0
18.2
Growth in consumer prices
1.8
1.5
2.7
M0 growth（end-period）
11.9
12.7
16.7
M1growth（end-period）
11.8
17.5
19.8
M2 growth（end-period）
17.6
16.9
17.3
Note: Investment and consumption are nominal value. The rate of growth is the cumulative figures
from the beginning of the year to present compared to the cumulative figures of the same period
last year.
Annex III:
Trends in World Commodity Market
I. A review of world commodity markets in 2006
Since 2002, world commodity market began its new round of price rising. Pushed
up by oil and nonferrous metals, the overall prices markedly climbed up. Price index
for primary commodities, which was compiled by IMF, shows that prices of primary
commodities grew by 138% during 1995-2006, prices of energy and nonferrous
metals grew by 249% and 117%. For energies, the biggest increase was seen in oil
prices, to 274%. Price gains in agricultural products are much smaller than that in
energy and industrial raw material, although prices of food, beverage and agricultural
raw materials rose by 10% in 2006, it just returned to the level of 1995.
Price index of world primary commodities（1995=100，in dollar terms）
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
food and beverage
agricultural raw materials
energy
composite index
2004
2005
2006
non ferrous metals
Source: IMF，Prices of Primary Commodities，www.imf.org
In 2006, against the background of a sustained and strong world economic growth,
world commodity market remained brisk, demand was stable and supply capacity was
improved. Overall prices sharply fluctuated around its high levels. For example, world
oil prices notched steep ups and downs, oil futures in New York market in August
once reached US$80.barrel, a record high, after this, prices gradually fell, to as low as
US$53.32/barrel, the biggest fall exceeding 30%. Prices of agricultural products fully
picked up, a steep rise was particularly seen by the end of the year. Prices of maize
and wheat reached a new high in 10 years, prices of sugar reached a record high.
Owing to a rapid growth in demand and high monopoly, prices of iron ore rose
markedly for consecutive years, long-term contract price rose by 19% in 2006 after a
71.5% increase in the previous year. Supply of non ferrous metals remained tight,
price gains exceeded the expectations, and the biggest increase was notched for prices
of nickel, which grew by almost 150%. Prices of copper rose from US$4400 at the
beginning of the year to US$8800 in May, a record high, after that prices fell steeply
and continued to fluctuate.
Table1 Price index of some commodities, 2006
（% change year-on-year）
In US dollars
In Pounds
1Qtr
2 Qtr
3 Qtr
4 Qtr
1 Qtr
2 Qtr
3 Qtr
4 Qtr
19.0
33.0
35.3
31.4
28.3
34.7
29.6
20.4
31.5
57.2
58.9
50.5
41.7
59.1
52.1
37.9
36.1
74.7
75.1
62.7
46.7
76.9
67.7
49.1
Fiber
4.8
1.3
7.4
7.2
13.0
2.5
2.8
-1.7
Rubber
49.9
41.8
41.8
36.3
61.5
43.5
35.7
24.9
Crude oil
28.7
33.6
12.9
5.3
38.7
35.3
8.1
-3.6
Composite
index
Industrial
materials
raw
Nonferrous
metals
Source: Forecast on world commodities (EIU)，Jan.2007
Development in world commodity markets in 2006 was mainly affected by the
following factors:
1. Demand remained vigorous. The tight relation between supply and demand
was somewhat eased, but the overall demand was still strong. Agricultural production
depends on climate, natural resources is featured by irreproduction and relative
monopoly supply, all these factors decided that contradiction between demand and
supply cannot be settled within a short period of time. Demand basis for primary
products remains sound, inventories of many staple commodities remained low.
Meanwhile, demand for industrial and agricultural raw materials continued to grow
stably, so higher prices and buoyant transaction was seen in primary products.
Investment in many economies recovered, manufacturing industry continued its shift
to emerging industrial countries, which caused a demand increase in industrial raw
materials, machinery equipment and other capital goods.
2. Cost-pushed and alternate prices gains. Oil not only accounts for about 40%
of world energy consumption, it is also an important raw material for heavy chemical
industry and it plays an irreplaceable role in today’s world economy. Prices of crude
oil and other resource raw materials rose for 4 consecutive years, which fully pushed
up the prices of commodities and services and in turn increased the industrial and
agricultural production cost. In an environment of vigorous demand, increase in cost
further pushed up the world commodity prices.
3. Climate changes in major producing areas and other unexpected factors
which affected supply and caused price fluctuation. Because of tight supply, the
markets showed a highly increased sensibility to unexpected factors. In 2006, a severe
drought occurred in Australia, the output and export of wheat fell by 50%, a steep
drop in production was also notched for other major agricultural products, by the end
of 2006 price of wheat in world market reached a record high in 10 years. The warm
winter by the end of 2006 caused a fall in crude oil prices, but later the ups and downs
of Iran’s nuclear issue triggered off a sharp fluctuation in world oil market, price rose
and fell in its higher positions.
4. Trouble made by speculative funds intensified the price fluctuation in staple
commodities. In the past a few years, owing to the low cost of capital, which resulted
from low interest rates, and the big profit resulted from high oil prices, a large number
of speculative funds flew to primary commodity market. According to the estimates
made by Merrill Lynch, in the 1990s, there were around 300 Hedge Funds in
commodity market, the number increased to over 2000 in 2000, exceeding 9000 in
2006, capital scale ranges between US$1400 billion to US$1600 billion. Major
economies increased interest rates in 2006, which added to funds’ financing cost,
meanwhile world major stockmarket remained buoyant, which attracted large amount
of funds flowing from commodity market to stockmarket. The large-scaled capital
inflows and outflows in commodity market led to an even fierce price fluctuation in
commodity market.
5. The depreciated dollar caused a marked price gains in commodities which
are priced in dollars. In 2006, dollar returned to its weak position, the exchange rate
against the euro and pounds dropped by 9.75% and 13.25%. Currently, crude oil and
other energy and resource products are still priced in US dollars, the depreciated
dollar directly pushed up the price of primary commodities.
II. Outlook for major commodity markets in 2007
Since 2007, world commodity price continued its rising momentum amid
fluctuation. According to the Commodity Price Index (excl oil, in dollar terms) given
by Economist, an UK-based weekly magazine, the average composite index in March
grew by 2.6% as compared with the level of last December. The price index for food
and industrial raw materials was up by 2.2% and 2.9%, if priced in pound and euro,
the composite index grew by 3.5% and 2.3%.
By looking into 2007 as a whole, world economy will continue its faster growth,
world commodity markets will remain stable, but in terms of demand and supply,
factors, which will lead to a fall in prices, still exist. Firstly, supply capability of most
commodities continues to be improved, a balanced position between supply and
demand will be basically achieved, but some commodities will record an over-supply.
Secondly, the policy of interest rate increase in major countries will partially restrain
the demand and speculative activities, which will bring pressures on falling prices. To
sum up, price gains in world staple commodities are expected fall, but the movement
for various commodities will differ considerably.
Table 2
Type
Price trend of world commodity markets
Index（US$, 1990=100）
Year-on-year change（%）
2004
2005
2006
Composite index
107.3
111.7
144.9
146.6
13.5
4.0
29.7
1.2
Food and beverage
110.8
109.7
119.4
118.4
8.5
-1.0
8.8
-0.8
Industrial raw materials
103.0
113.6
169.9
174.2
21.0
10.2
49.7
2.5
Nonferrous metal
106.2
123.7
200.8
200.8
37.1
16.5
62.3
0.0
84.0
75.6
79.5
85.6
-10.4
-10.0
5.2
7.7
Rubber
144.9
163.4
232.0
266.2
20.3
12.7
42.0
14.8
Crude oil
172.1
245.3
292.6
289.7
34.2
42.5
19.3
-1.0
-
-
-
-
7.7
2.5
1.8
5.8
Fiber
Export
price
of
manufactured goods
2007
2004
2005
2006
2007
Notes: Figures for 2007 are estimates
Source: World Economic Outlook (EIU), Jan. 2007
Agricultural products and food: The output of world grain in 2006 reached 1.994
billion tons, down by 2.7%, whereas demand grew by 3.3%, to 2.06 billion tons, the
increase was mainly from resident and industrial consumption. In 2006, world
inventory of grain fell for the third consecutive year, of which inventory of wheat fell
to its record low since 1980s. The tight supply triggered off a rapid rise in grain prices,
and higher prices in turn encouraged the expansion of seeded area. Grain output in
2007 is expected to increase, prices will run high for a period of time and a fall is
likely to occur. Owing to attentions to and love of ethanol-blended gasoline, demand
for maize remained vigorous, supply turned to be tight and prices will continue to
climb up. Some land will turn to maize production, which will lead to an inadequate
supply of soybean, prices of soybean will continue to rise. Price gains in maize and
soybean will stimulate the price of edible oil and push up the raising cost of livestock,
which in turn helped to increase the prices of eggs and meat. The complex agricultural
issue has always been a focus of contradiction for Doha Round, since the US and
other developed countries are greatly divided in opinion on agricultural subsidies, the
negotiation hasn’t achieved any substantial results, a clear change will hardly occur
on the pattern of world agricultural markets.
Oil: World oil prices rose by over 70% during 2004-2006, higher oil prices has
limited the demand growth to some extent. Since every country in the world is trying
to look for alternative energy and increase the energy efficiency, growth in demand
for oil has declined year by year since 2004. According to the International Energy
Agency (IEA), the annual growth in demand for oil during 2004-2006 was 3.9%,
1.5% and 1%. In recent years, the overall supply slightly exceeds the demand in world
oil market, a balanced condition has been basically achieved, but due to grave
inadequacy of spare capacity, the balanced relation between supply and demand is
rather fragile, the unexpected incidents and regional tense situation will possibly
break such balance and lead to a sharp fluctuation in prices. From end-2006 to the
beginning of 2007, because of a warm winter and doubts that markets have towards
OPEC’s efforts in reducing production, the oil prices have experienced a short time
low, ranging around US$55/barrel. However, with the again tensed situation in Iran
since March, oil prices rebounded to over US$65/barrel. Since uncertain factors, such
as OPEC’s limiting production and keeping price strategy, output growth in
non-OPEC oil producing countries and geopolitical situation, will to a large extent
affect oil supply, oil prices in 2007 is forecast to fluctuate, but possibly with a
somewhat narrowed range, the overall prices is expected to fall.
Non-ferrous metals: In 2006, world nonferrous market remained buoyant in both
demand and supply, overall prices maintained its rising momentum, and prices of
copper, nickel, tin and zinc all reached record highs. Nonferrous market in 2007 is
forecast to continue its fluctuation amid adjustments, the trend of prices differs by
commodities. The restart of spare capacity of electro-al and paced up construction for
new aluminium plants will rapidly push up the supply, prices of aluminium in 2007
will possibly drop. The surge in copper price in recent two years stimulated the
expansion in copper capacity, world copper output in 2007 will continue to grow
markedly, world electrolytic copper market will turn from a tight supply and demand
to a balance between supply and demand. Meanwhile, the labor-capital negotiation in
world major copper mines that once upset the market has basically ended, the tight
supply of world copper concentrate will somewhat ease and this will help to bring
about a fall in world copper prices. Exploration of nickel hasn’t made any
breakthrough for years, growth in world nickel supply slowed down, if the demand
continues to expand rapidly, the contradiction between supply and demand will
further comes out, prices will remain high.
Textile fiber: In recent years, owing to the development in new technology, the
growth in demand for man-made fiber is faster than that in natural fiber, man-made
fiber plays an increasingly important role in textile fiber. The big cost increase in
energy raw materials has also led to price gains in synthetic fiber by varying degrees.
The export-oriented textile industry in China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
developed rapidly, Asia has become a major destination for cotton consumption. In
2006, China’s cotton output grew by 16%, India by 11%, and this partially restrained
the rising momentum of world cotton prices. Demand growth for cotton in 2007 is
forecast to continue, but with a somewhat decelerated pace. Since the factor of
increased production has already been released, the overall cotton price in 2007 will
pick up slowly.
Chemicals: Chemical prices are directly determined by crude oil prices. In 2006,
because of rising crude oil prices, prices of major chemical products rose sharply, of
which prices of LDPE, SM, PP and ABS grew by 15%, a steep rise was particularly
seen at the end of the year, by December 2006, prices of the above mentioned four
products grew by 30.1%, 46.7%, 22.8% and 18.8%. In world trade, chemical products
come across most trade frictions. According to WTO statistics, from 1995 to June
2006, altogether 944 anti-dumping cases are imposed against chemical products,
accounting for 33.2% of the world’s total, cases for safeguard measures reached 35,
accounting for 21.6% of world’s total, only next to agricultural products. Chemicals
are also one of the products that most affected by environment protection criteria. On
Dec. 31, 2006, European Parliament passed Regulation concerning the Registration,
Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH), which involves
over 30,000 chemicals in the EU market, the Regulation will be carried out on July
2007. Since the EU market accounts for over 30% of world’s total chemical products,
the implementation of REACH is expected to considerably hit the chemical trading
and chemical industry of those countries that fall behind in environmental regulation
and criteria, the down-stream sectors, such as textile, light industry, pharmaceutical
and auto industry will be somewhat affected.
Iron ore and steels: Negotiations on iron ore contract prices in 2007 reached an
agreement, iron ore prices will rise by 9.5% over the previous year. Pushed by
increase year after year in long-term agreement price, India reinforced its control over
quantity and price of spot market. Stimulated by buoyant market and rising prices,
iron ore enterprises, particularly world iron ore giants expanded production capacity
one after another, which gave a strong incentive to pace up the development of new
mines. Being the biggest consumer for iron ore, China’s negotiating capability has
been improved, which will help to balance the supply and demand, and bring about a
more rationalized price-forming mechanism.
In the first half of 2006, with the economic growth in the US, Europe and Japan,
world steel market recovered again. The output of world crude steel in July grew by
14.5%, steel prices fluctuated in its high position, CRU’s integrated steel price index
in July once reached a record high of 166.6 points. Later, due to rising inventory and
weakening demand, prices are faced with downward pressures, monthly growth in
crude steel output fell to 11.3% in August, 8.7% in September and 7.4% in October.
By the year-end, owing to an output booming in Asia, particularly China, world
output growth picked up. In 2006, world crude output reached a new high of 1.24
billion tons, up by a year-on-year of 8.8%. Crude steel output is forecast to continue
its growth in 2007, but with a decelerated pace. Asia will be the most important region
in pulling up the growth, whereas demand in North America market will stagnate.
Persistent growth in steel market led to a demand increase in ferroalloy, such as
ferrosilicon, ferromanganese, the tight supply will possibly cause a price surge.
Mechanical and electrical products: Buoyant investment activities in major
economies and spurt in foreign direct investment stimulated the demand for
mechanical and electrical products. Transaction of major commodities remained
buoyant in 2006, prices somewhat rose.
In 2006, market scale for semiconductor expanded, prices remained stable, sales
grew by 9% in value terms as compared with the previous year, it is expected to grow
by 10% in 2007. Personal computer and mobile phone are still two major factors in
pushing up the stable growth in semiconductor industry, but the share of MP3, digital
camera, digital DV, digital TV, game players and other consumer electronics is
steadily going up, prices will be hurt by an ever-growing market competition.
World-wide personal computer shipments rose 10% in 2006, to 228.6 million.
Demand for business computer decreased, changes for notebook computer from desk
computer have continues, growth in world computer demand generally decelerated,
price competition became extremely fierce.
Against the background of a fast change in information technology, applied field
and applied mode, world tele-equipment industry maintained its steady growth since
its recovery in 2004. Pushed by investment expansion in telecommunication
infrastructure and demand growth in movable device and wireless service, market
growth in telecommunications equipment in 2005 and 2006 was all above 8% and this
rate of growth will be maintained within the next three years. A rapid development
was particularly seen in new communication technology, which represented by
wireless technology and IP technology.
In 2006, sales of engineering machinery, such as earth-moving machinery, crane,
bituminous equipment, concrete machinery, grew rapidly. In 2007, affected by a
slowdown in house construction and other infrastructure construction, engineering
machinery industry is forecast to stage a small increase.
An over-capacity is notched for world automobile industry, the capacity utilization
in 2006 was only 79.5%. But China, India and Russia have great potentialities, the
output increase in these three countries accounted for nearly half of newly increased
auto output in the world. The focus of automobile industry in Europe continued to
shift to east-central Europe. Automobile industry in China, India and Latin America in
2007 is forecast to maintain its strong growth, whereas matured auto markets, such as
the US, Canada, West Europe and Japan, will remain sluggish mainly as a result of a
slowed-down economic growth, world auto industry will possibly put an end to its 5
consecutive years of growth.
In 2006, world shipping market remained brisk with new orders increasing
considerably and number of transactions reaching a record high. Orders for new ships
reached as high as 1.3-1.4 DWT, investment totaled US$100 billion, the order form
on the hand by the end of the year reached 300 million DWT. The price index rose
4.5% for 2006 as a whole. Orders reported in 2007 will decline, prices will remain
high, but rate of growth will slow down.
Annex IV
Status Quo of China’s Trade in Services
I. Overall conditions of China’s trade in services in 2006
In 2005, China’s trade in services grew steadily, trade deficit somewhat
narrowed. The total receipts and payments in services reached US$192.8 billion,
increasing by 22%. Of the total, the receipts totaled US$92 billion and payments
totaled US$100.8 billion, an increase of 24% and 20% respectively. The deficit
on trade in services stood at US$8.8 billion, fell by 6% over the previous year.
According to estimates made by WTO in April 2007, the imports and exports of
China’s trade in services in 2006 reached US$187 billion, ranking seventh and
eighth in the world, position for exports increased by 2 and for imports remained
unchanged.
. 10 leading exporters and importers in world services trade, 2006
(US$bn and percentage)
Exporters
Value
Share
Change
(%)
(%)
Importers
Value
Share
Change
(%)
(%)
US
387
14.3
9
US
307
11.7
9
Britain
223
8.2
9
German
215
8.2
7
German
164
6.1
11
Britain
169
6.5
6
Japan
121
4.5
12
Japan
143
5.5
8
France
112
4.1
-2
France
108
4.1
3
Italy
101
3.7
13
Italy
101
3.9
14
Spain
100
3.7
8
China
100
3.8
-
China
87
3.2
-
Netherlands
78
3.0
7
Netherlands
82
3.0
4
Ireland
77
3.0
11
India
73
2.7
34
Spain
77
2.9
18
World
2710
100.0
11
World
2620
100.0
10
*China’s imports and exports are estimates
Source: WTO Press Release, April 12, 2007
Performance of China’s major services trade items in 2006 can be summarized as
follows:
1. Receipts and payments in transport grew faster and deficit somewhat
widened. A rapid expansion in merchandise imports and exports pushed up receipts
and payments in merchandise transports which are related with merchandise trade. In
2006, income from transports totaled US$21 billion, up by 36%, payments totaled
US$34.4 billion, up by 21%, trade deficit stood at US$13.4 billion, up by 3%.
2. Surplus from tourism widened. Along with progressive deepening of
international interchange, person-time for border exit and entry rapidly increased,
which pushed up growth in tourism income and payments. In 2006, tourism income
totaled US$33.9 billion, up by 16%, payments totaled US$24.3 billion, up by 12%,
surplus stood at US$9.6 billion, up by 28%.
3. Payments on insurance grew faster and deficit widened. Owing to a stronger
growth in merchandise trade, payments on insurance also paced up, payments totaled
US$8.8 billion in 2006, up by 23%, which was 5 percentage points higher than the
rate of growth notched in 2005, trade deficit stood at US$8.3 billion, up by 25%.
4. Surplus generated by computer and information services grew robustly.
Income from computer and information services totaled US$3 billion, up by 61%,
whereas payments totaled US$1.7million, up by 7%, trade surplus stood at US$1.2
billion, up by 460%.
5. A further widened deficit was seen in royalties and license fees. Income from
royalties and license fees totaled US$200 million, whereas payments totaled US$6.6
billion, this led to a trade deficit of US$6.4 billion, up by 25%.
6. Proportion of consulting income in total services income rose, deficits
narrowed. Income from consulting service totaled US$7.8 billion, up by 47%,
accounting for 9% of total services income, a rate 2 percentage points higher than in
2005, payments totaled US$8.4 billion, up by 36%, a rate 1 percentage point higher
than in 2005, this led to a trade deficit of US$600 million, up by 25%.
7. Surplus from other commercial services somewhat grew. Income from other
commercial services (including transit trade, commission, sales commission and so on)
reached US$19.7 billion, up by 17%, whereas payments totaled US$11.3 billion, up
by 20%, this led to a trade surplus of US$8.4 billion, up by 12%.
China’s services trade in 2006
Item
Credit & Debit
Value
(100 million dollars)
Debit
Balance
Change Value Change
(%)
(%)
24
1008.3
20
-88.3
Credit
Value
1928.3
Change
(%)
22
1.Transport
553.8
26
210.2
36
343.7
21
-133.5
2.Tourism
582.7
14
339.5
16
243.2
12
96.3
3.Communication
15.0
38
7.4
52
7.6
27
-0.2
Total
920.0
4.Construction
48.0
14
27.5
6
20.5
27
7.0
5.Insurance
93.8
21
5.5
0
88.3
23
-82.8
6.Financial services
10.4
240
1.5
0
8.9
459
-7.4
7.Computer and information
47.0
36
29.6
61
17.4
7
12.2
8.Royalties and license fees
68.4
25
2.0
30
66.3
25
-64.3
9.Consulting
162.2
41
78.3
47
83.9
36
-5.6
opinion polling
24.0
34
14.5
34
9.5
34
11.Film/AV
2.6
-10
1.4
3
1.2
-21
0.2
12.Other commercial services
309.5
18
196.9
17
112.6
20
84.3
13. Government services
10.9
-3
5.79
17
5.06
-19
0.7
10.Advertising
and
public
5.0
Source: State Administration of Exchange Control
Basic features of China’s services trade performance in 2006 are as follows:
Trade scale continued to expand, rate of growth paced up, but development
level remained rather low. Rate of growth in services trade was 4 percentage points
higher than in the 2005, although still 2 percentage points lower than the rate of
growth in merchandise trade, a somewhat improvement as compared with the record
of 5 percentage points lower than the rate of growth in merchandise trade in the
previous year. However, China’s services trade accounts for less than 1/9 of its
merchandise trade, much lower than the world average of 1/4.
Growth in receipts was higher than in payments, deficits somewhat narrowed.
In 2006, growth in receipts was 4 percentage points higher than in payments, deficits
fell by 6%, to US$8.8 billion, the downward trend of deficit that began since 2005 has
been carried on. The increase in surplus from tourism, computer and information
service and other commercial services was a major reason behind the narrowing
deficits, surplus from the three service item was US$9.6 billion, US$1.2 billion and
US$8.4 billion, an increase of 28%, 460% and 12%. Transportation, insurance,
royalties and license fees were still major source of deficit, and the growing trend
continued, deficits from transportation, insurance, royalties and license fees totaled
US$13.4 billion, US$8.3 billion and US$6.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%,
25% and 25%.
Contribution made by traditional service items and emerging service items to
trade scale slowly changed. In 2006, tourism, transportation and insurance were still
major source of receipts and payments, with the income value accounted for 60% of
the total income from service trade, fell by 1 percentage point over the level of 2005,
payments accounted for 67%, fell by 2 percentage points. Among the emerging
service items, receipts from computer and information, consulting, advertising
accounted for 13% of total services income, a rate 2 percentage points higher than in
2005, payments accounted for 11%, which was up by 1 percentage point over 2005.
Regional structure of services trade is imbalanced. China’s services trade mainly
centers on economically developed areas, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong,
Zhejiang and Jiangsu, whereas trade scale in central and western region is fairly small.
This relates to the coastal area’s bigger share of merchandise trade, geographical
advantage and relatively developed modern service sectors. Economically developed
eastern areas holds a bigger share in high value-added emerging service items, like
consulting, computer and information services, whereas central and western areas
accounts for a fairly small share and low-grade.
Trade partners (country/region) are highly centralized. China’s total receipts
and payments in services trade mainly centralized in Asia, Europe and North America.
China HK, the US, Japan and EU are China’s major partners in service trade.
II. Factors affecting the current development of China’s services
trade
(I) Factors deterring the development of services trade
Firstly, a relatively lag behind development in domestic tertiary industry.
Tertiary industry is the basis for developing international services trade. In recent
years, China’s tertiary industry has notched a faster growth and its proportion in GDP
rose from over 20% in 1978 to 39% in 2006. But as compared with over 60%
proportion of service output value in GDP in developed countries, China’s tertiary
industry still lags fairly behind. This reflects the impacts of China’s long-standing
policy orientation of “attaching great importance to manufacturing while neglecting
services”, i.e. encouraging development in manufacturing industry and actively push
the exports, this has led to a stronger growth in industrial manufacturing and exports,
some capital and technological intensive service sectors are featured by relatively
inadequate market competition.
Secondly, the development level of traditional service sectors is fairly low.
Traditionally, transport and tourism are trade-dependent or labor-intensive service
sectors, its growth depends on the development of foreign trade, opening-up and
utilization of tourism resources. There is still room for upraising its added value.
China needs to perfect its service structure in transport and tourism, explore the
comparative advantage or narrow the gap with developed countries. For example,
China’s international transport is featured by an imbalanced structure, merchandise
transport is the mainstay, competitiveness in international passenger transportation is
inadequate, therefore, China needs to consider how to achieve a sectoral development
amid increasingly frequent personnel contacts worldwide, how to meet the needs of
merchandise trade growth and provide more and better services. Tourism, as a
smokeless industry, is greatly valued by many countries, although China notched a
faster growth in number of arrivals and income, quality of tourism products, necessary
facilities and advertising all need to be further improved.
Thirdly, competitiveness of high added-value sectors is relatively weak.
Finance, insurance, consulting, computer and information, advertising and Film/AV
belongs to technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive high added-value service
sectors, which notched a faster expansion and concentration in international trade in
services. China gets off to a late start in these sectors, the weak competitiveness
directly affects its market share. Some service sectors lack experience in price setting,
product design and service providing. Against the background of China’s WTO
accession and constantly fulfilled commitments, amid the process of opening-up in
banking, insurance, security, telecommunication, retail service, competitiveness of
high added-value service sectors need to be adjusted and improved.
Fourthly, reserve of professional staff is deficient. The development of high
added-value service sectors needs an adequate reserve of professional staff. The gap
in knowledge content and service concept which resulted from inadequate
professionals and out-of-date knowledge, and together with the deficient technical and
innovation capability, cripple the competitiveness of China’s international service
trade, particularly in high added-value, capital and knowledge-intensive sectors like
banking, consulting and computer services, the relative shortage of high-leveled
professionals can hardly provide an effective guarantee of human resource reserve for
the sectoral development.
(II) Favorable factors for the development of service trade
Firstly, China’s steady and faster economic growth will lay a foundation for
the development of service trade. Since the reform and opening-up, China’s
economy has made considerable progress. At present, China is in the course of
industrialization, manufacturing industry is the priority for development. With the
steady moving forward of its industrialization, the development basis for tertiary
industry and service trade has also been improved.
Secondly, China’s WTO accession will help to build up the market
competitiveness of service trade. With the fulfillment of China’s WTO commitments,
the opening-up in service sectors has been accelerated, which will help to expand the
cross-border service trade. In high added-value, capital and knowledge-intensive
sectors like banking, insurance, security and telecommunication, the opening-up to
foreign investors is conducive to drawing on the experience of other countries,
breaking through the monopoly in some sectors and expanding service imports and
exports.
Thirdly, policies and laws on encouraging and facilitating growth in service
trade have been steadily improved. Number one is the Eleventh Five-Year Plan
clearly puts forward the imports and exports target for service trade, which will act as
a policy guidance. In Five-year Plan for the National Economic and Social
Development, Chinese government clearly raises the task of deepening systematic
reform, enhancing the opening-up level, speeding up transformation in mode of
growth in foreign trade, devoting major effort to developing service trade, steadily
raising its grade and level. In order to realize the above–mentioned targets, Chinese
government starts with the following work: reinforcing the overall planning and
coordination in service trade development, setting up and perfecting the
administrative system which participated by various sectors and coordinated at
various levels, selecting culture, software and construction as key service sectors so as
to shape up a competitive industrial system, studying and drawing up policies to
encourage the development of service trade, making clear that China’s foreign trade
will shift from stressing merchandise trade to a coordinated growth in both
merchandise trade and service trade, shaping up trade facilitating system that are in
line with the requirements of market economy and fostering flagship enterprises in
service trade. Number two is legal environment has been somewhat improved. In the
second half of 2006, China revised its Foreign Trade Law, legal explanation on
international service trade has been supplemented. In recent years, the promulgation
of Maritime Law, Law on Commercial Banks, Law of Insurance and Civil Aviation
Law, which relating to sub-sectors of service trade, has somewhat changed the legal
face of China’s service trade. However, China has no general laws on service trade
and there is still law vacancy in quite a number of service sectors. China still has a
long way to go in respect of perfecting policy and legal system concerning service
trade.
III. Outlook for China’s services trade in 2007
The development of service trade is not only conducive to catching the opportunity
of world service industry shifts and changing the situation of over-dependent on
merchandise trade, but also conducive to promoting economic structural adjustment,
optimizing the three industrial make-up, reducing dependence of economic growth on
natural resources and achieving a sustainable development. In recent years, China’s
trade scale in services rapidly expanded from US$66.5 billion in 2000 to US$192.8
billion in 2006, an annual increase of 20%. The targets of service imports and exports,
which put forward in China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan, will not only help to adjust
China’s foreign trade structure, facilitate industrial structural adjustment, but will also
help to grasp the opportunity of world service industry shifts and enhance China’s
position in international division of labor.
In 2007, in consideration of the expansion in merchandise trade, growth in
cross-border personnel movement and raising of national income level, we forecast
that China’s services trade will continue to expand in both receipts and payments, but
some deficit is set to retain. Receipts and payments generated by transports, insurance
and other traditional service sectors will further expand, receipts and payments
generated by insurance, royalties and license fees and other major deficit service
items will maintain their steady growth, possibly with a somewhat falling deficit.
Receipts and payments generated by consulting, computer and information and other
commercial services will maintain a steady rate of growth.
Statistics
Table 1: China’s imports and exports,
1998-2007.1-3
（100 million dollars）
Year
Imports and exports
Exports
Imports
Total
Change
(%)
Total
Change
(%)
Total
Change
(%)
Balance
1998
3239.49
-0.4
1837.12
0.5
1402.37
-1.5
434.75
1999
3606.30
11.3
1949.31
6.1
1656.99
18.2
292.32
2000
4742.97
31.5
2492.03
27.8
2250.94
35.8
241.09
2001
5096.51
7.5
2660.98
6.8
2435.53
8.2
225.45
2002
6207.66
21.8
3255.96
22.4
2951.70
21.2
304.26
2003
8512.07
37.1
4383.71
34.6
4128.36
39.9
255.34
2004
11547.92
35.7
5933.69
35.4
5614.23
36.0
319.46
2005
14221.18
23.2
7619.99
28.4
6601.18
17.6
1018.81
2006
17606.86
23.8
9690.73
27.2
7916.14
20.0
1774.59
2007.1-3
4577.09
23.3
2520.77
27.8
2056.31
18.2
464.46
Source: Customs Statistics, similarly hereinafter.
Table 2: Composition of China’s exports, 1998－2007.1-3（100 million dollars）
1998
Total
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007.1-3
1837.12 1949.31 2492.03 2660.98 3255.96 4383.71 5933.69 7619.99 9690.73 2520.77
Primary
205.89 199.41 254.60 263.38 285.40 348.10 405.50
490.39 529.25 134.46
products
Foodstuff
106.13 104.58 122.82 127.77 146.21 175.33 188.70
224.81 257.22
72.43
and
live
Beverage
9.75
7.71
7.48
8.73
9.84
10.19
12.14
11.83
11.93
2.18
animals
for
and tobacco
Non-edible
food
35.19
39.21
44.62
41.72
44.02
50.33
58.43
74.85
78.62
20.15
raw materials
Fossil fuel,
51.75
46.59
78.55
84.05
84.35
111.10 144.76
176.21 177.76
38.99
lubricants and
Animal and
3.07
1.32
1.16
1.11
0.98
related
vegetable oils,
Industrial
products
fat and wax
manufactures
Chemicals
1.15
1.48
2.68
3.73
0.71
1632.20 1749.90 2237.43 2397.60 2970.56 4035.60 5528.18 7129.60 9161.47 2386.31
103.21 103.73 120.98 133.52 153.25 195.86 263.68
357.72 445.31 126.04
and chemical
324.77 332.62 425.46 438.13 529.55 690.30 1006.54 1291.26 1748.36 463.81
products
Manufactur
Machinery
502.17 588.36 826.00 949.01 1269.76 1878.88 2682.91 3522.62 4563.64 1221.98
es
and transport
702.00 725.10 862.78 871.10 1011.53 1261.01 1563.93 1941.91 2380.29 570.28
classified
equipment
Miscellaneous
by
Other raw
unclassified
materials
products
0.06
0.09
2.21
5.84
6.48
9.56
11.12
16.09
23.88
4.20
Table 3: Composition of China's imports, 1998－2007.1-3
(100 million dollars)
1998
Total
Primary
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007.1-3
1402.37 1656.99 2250.94 2435.53 2951.70 4128.36 5614.23 6601.18 7916.14 2056.31
229.49 268.46 467.39 457.43 492.71 727.83 1173.00 1477.10 1871.41 493.16
products
Foodstuff
37.87
36.20
47.58
49.76
52.38
59.59
91.56
93.88
99.97
26.37
and
live
Beverage
1.79
2.08
3.64
4.12
3.87
4.91
5.48
7.82
10.41
2.64
animals for
and tobacco
Non-edible
food
107.15 127.40 200.03 221.27 227.36 341.19 553.78
702.12 831.64 238.60
raw materials
Fossil fuel,
67.75
89.12 206.37 174.66 192.84 292.14 480.03
639.57 890.02 211.97
lubricants and
Animal and
14.91
13.67
33.70
related
vegetable oils,
Industrial
products
fat and wax
manufactures
Chemicals
9.76
7.63
16.25
30.01
42.14
39.38
13.59
1172.88 1388.53 1783.55 1978.10 2459.00 3400.53 4441.23 5124.09 6044.72 1563.15
201.58 240.30 302.13 321.04 390.36 489.80 657.44
777.42 870.79 244.32
and chemical
310.75 343.17 418.07 419.38 484.89 639.05 740.72
811.59 869.60 236.15
products
Manufactur
Machinery
568.45 694.53 919.31 1070.15 1370.10 1928.69 2526.24 2906.28 3571.08 901.84
es
and transport
84.56
97.01 127.51 150.76 198.01 330.17 501.55
608.72 712.95 175.82
classified
equipment
Miscellaneous
by
Other raw
7.54
13.53
20.08
unclassified
materials
products
16.53
16.76
15.64
12.82
15.29
20.30
5.02
Table 4: China’s exports by form, 1998-2007.1-3
(100 million dollars)
1998
Total
Ordinary
trade
Processin
g trade
Others
1837
.12
741.
94
1045
.53
49.6
5
19
99
19
49.
79
31
1.3
11
5
08.
49.
82
14
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2492.
03
1051.
81
1376.
52
63.7
2660.
98
1118.
81
1474.
34
67.83
3255.
96
1361.
87
1799.
27
94.82
4383.
71
1820.
34
2418.
49
144.8
8
593
3.69
243
6.35
327
9.88
217.4
5
761
9.99
315
0.91
416
4.81
304.2
7
9690.
73
4163.
18
5103.
75
423.8
0
2007.
1-3
2520.
77
1081.
13
1330.
21
109.4
3
Table 5: China’s exports by ownership, 1998-2007.1-3
(100 million dollars)
1998
199
9
194
9.31
985.
03
886.
34
68.0
0
9.94
200
0
249
2.03
116
4.48
119
4.37
105.
65
27.5
3
200
1
266
0.98
113
2.00
133
2.17
142.
19
54.6
1
200
2
325
5.96
122
8.46
169
9.85
188.
53
138.
85
200
3
438
3.71
138
0.33
240
3.37
251.
31
348.
69
200 200
4
5
1837
59
761
Total
.12
33.
9.99
968.
15
168
SOEs
69
53
35.
8.13
808.
33
444
FIEs
94
5
86.
2.09
54.0
3
365.
Collectively07
2
1
11
owned
6.07
6
112
Others
7.
99
4.66
3.
3
7
Table 6: China’s exports by country/region, 1998-2007.1-3
5
(100 million dollars)
200
6
969
0.73
191
3.45
563
8.28
410.
89
172
8.12
200
7.1252
3
0.77
475.
14
149
1.57
99.4
3
454.
63
Total
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006 2007.1-3
1837.12 1949.31 2492.03 2660.98 3255.96 4383.71 5933.69 7619.99 9690.73 2520.77
Asia
981.50 1025.63 1323.08 1409.18 1703.59 2226.06 2955.00 3664.31 4558.36 1180.82
Japan
296.60
324.11
416.54
449.41
484.34
594.23
735.14
839.92
916.39
62.52
78.08
112.92
125.19
155.35
200.96
278.18
351.09
445.26
232.66
120.81
Republic
of Korea
China
387.42
368.63
445.18
465.41
584.63
762.89 1008.78 1244.81 1553.85
388.07
Hong
Kong
China
Taiwan
38.69
39.50
50.39
50.00
65.86
90.05
135.45
165.50
207.35
49.47
109.53
122.75
173.41
183.76
235.68
309.25
429.02
553.71
713.14
190.57
ASEAN*
39.44
45.02
57.61
57.91
69.84
88.69
126.87
166.33
231.85
60.32
Singapore
138.16
186.83
Africa
40.56
41.15
50.42
60.06
69.61
101.84
Europe
334.25
354.82
454.82
492.28
592.22
882.73 1224.02 1656.37 2153.72 587.28
281.47
302.17
381.92
408.96
482.12
721.55 1071.62 1437.12 1860.01 515.40
46.32
48.80
63.10
67.81
80.59
108.24
EU**
149.68
189.77
266.90
69.45
241.63
67.23
Britain
73.54
77.80
92.78
97.51
113.72
175.36
237.56
325.28
403.16
103.65
Germany
28.23
29.21
37.05
36.86
40.72
72.94
99.22
116.40
139.10
42.82
France
Italy
25.77
29.29
38.02
39.92
48.27
66.53
92.25
116.91
159.73
51.62
54.13
66.87
72.78
91.08
135.05
185.19
258.77
308.61
45.11
90.61
Holland
Russia
Latin
18.40
14.97
22.33
27.11
35.21
60.35
91.03
132.12
158.32
53.21
52.70
71.85
82.36
94.88
118.79
182.42
236.83
360.29
43.60
93.19
America
North
400.75
443.89
552.74
576.37
742.69
981.39 1332.37 1746.77 2191.37
547.25
America
81.62
116.54
Canada
21.27
24.33
31.58
33.46
43.03
56.33
155.17
USA
379.48
419.47
520.99
542.80
699.46
924.74 1249.48 1629.00 2034.72 507.02
Oceania
26.85
31.13
39.10
40.73
52.89
72.89
101.71
128.87
160.10
23.65
27.04
34.29
35.69
45.85
62.63
88.38
110.62
136.25
40.11
42.78
35.29
Australia
*Initially ASEAN includes Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and
Thailand, Viet Nam became a member country in 1996, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and
Myanmar joined in 1998, and Cambodia joined in 2000.
**EU was originally called European Committee before 1994, and its member countries includes
Belgium, Denmark, UK, Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Greece,
Portugal and Spain. In 1995, Austria, Finland and Sweden got their memberships. Since May 2004,
the statistical scope was enlarged by the membership of Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Esthonia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Czech and Slovakia.
Table 7: China’s imports by country/region, 1998-2007.1-3
(100 million dollars)
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Total
1402.37
1656.99
2250.94
2435.53
2951.70
4128.36
200
5614
Asia
871.72
1016.81
1413.42
1471.37
1902.83
2729.34
3695
Japan
282.75
337.63
415.10
427.87
534.66
741.51
943.
Republic of Korea
150.14
172.26
232.07
233.77
285.68
431.35
622.
China Hong Kong
66.58
68.92
94.29
94.22
107.26
111.19
118.
China Taiwan
166.31
195.27
254.94
273.39
380.61
493.62
647.
ASEAN*
125.86
149.27
221.81
232.15
311.97
473.27
629.
42.35
40.61
50.60
51.28
70.47
104.84
139.
Africa
14.77
23.75
55.55
47.93
54.27
83.61
156.
Europe
263.43
326.45
407.84
483.90
534.12
697.44
890.
207.52
254.57
308.45
357.12
385.43
530.62
701.
Britain
19.53
29.95
35.92
35.27
33.36
35.70
47.6
Germany
70.21
83.35
104.09
137.72
164.16
243.41
303.
France
32.05
37.85
39.50
41.05
42.53
60.98
76.6
Italy
22.79
26.80
30.78
37.89
43.19
50.80
64.5
Holland
8.34
10.11
12.36
14.57
15.72
19.34
29.6
36.41
42.23
57.70
79.59
84.07
97.26
121.
Latin America
29.89
29.92
54.10
67.02
83.36
149.27
217.
North America
191.21
218.15
261.20
302.39
308.77
382.58
520.
Canada
22.37
23.34
37.51
40.28
36.27
43.75
73.5
USA
168.83
194.78
223.63
262.00
272.38
338.61
446.
Oceania
31.35
41.91
58.77
62.92
68.34
86.00
133.
26.83
36.07
50.24
54.26
58.51
73.01
115.
Singapore
EU**
Russia
Australia
*Initially ASEAN includes Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and
Thailand, Viet Nam became a member country in 1996, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and
Myanmar joined in 1998, and Cambodia joined in 2000.
**EU was originally called European Committee before 1994, and its member countries includes
Belgium, Denmark, UK, Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Greece,
Portugal and Spain. In 1995, Austria, Finland and Sweden got their memberships. Since May 2004,
the statistical scope was enlarged by the membership of Cyprus, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Esthonia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Czech and Slovakia.
Table 8: China’s exports by provinces ( regions, cities), 2000-2007.1-3
(US$ 10000)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total
24920255
26609821
32559597
43837082
59336863
76199914
96907284
Beijing
1196813
1177236
1261386
1685180
2057493
3087062
3797921
Tianjin
862578
948719
1163169
1436507
2086150
2738476
3350187
Hebei
371000
395474
459411
592825
934031
1092685
1284022
Shanxi
123687
146626
166161
226599
403489
352872
414030
Inner
97017
62698
80670
115575
135617
177073
214092
1085631
1099969
1236656
1463105
1891771
2343914
2831918
Jilin
125683
146155
176849
216199
171512
246689
299670
Heilongjiang
145118
161166
198665
287430
368163
607071
843598
Shanghai
2535233
2762133
3203739
4845820
7350697
9071969
11359127
Jiangsu
2576683
2886988
3846512
5911867
8749665
12298215
16041885
Zhejiang
1944275
2297428
2941068
4160263
5815873
7680298
10089771
Anhui
217198
228191
245313
306378
393675
518930
683833
Fujian
1290607
1392124
1737063
2113978
2939634
3484457
4126491
Jiangxi
119741
103908
105198
150493
199472
243933
375307
Shandong
1552884
1811694
2110783
2655901
3585354
4612819
5859978
Henan
149578
170361
211862
297961
417552
509008
669575
Hubei
193553
179679
209826
265571
338230
442871
626068
Hunan
165271
175294
179529
214606
309684
374786
509182
Guangdong
9191770
9542085
11846274
15294415
19155810
23816258
30195337
Guangxi
148891
123534
150746
196991
238596
287663
359297
Hainan
80289
79785
81930
86916
109255
102254
137562
Chongqing
99566
110255
109101
158510
209119
252054
335192
Sichuan
139437
158234
271163
321291
398371
470089
662406
Guizhou
42056
42174
44183
58795
86660
85871
103844
Yunan
117509
124400
142971
167658
223882
264181
339143
Mongolia
Liaoning
Tibet
11334
8237
8112
12150
13022
16538
22222
Shaanxi
131005
110778
137603
173538
239699
307692
362976
Gansu
41495
47568
54891
87758
99634
109100
150960
Qinghai
11200
14913
15100
27388
45476
32320
53422
Ningxia
32736
35184
32818
51195
64625
68743
94346
Xinjiang
120413
66837
130850
254222
304652
504024
713923
Table 9: China’s imports by provinces ( regions, cities), 2000-2007.1-3
(US$ 10000)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total
22509373
24355288
29517010
41283647
56142299
66011847
79161361
Beijing
3765376
3972572
3989142
5161089
7408688
9470066
12019305
Tianjin
852822
867995
1117972
1499356
2117986
2592006
3098218
Hebei
152862
177708
207114
305039
418610
514446
569402
Shanxi
52751
47274
64993
81819
134685
201726
248749
Inner
165188
140765
162736
167290
236716
310014
381792
817516
879230
937309
1193013
1551937
1757384
2007189
Jilin
131328
174517
193398
401031
507822
406149
491736
Heilongjiang
153519
177226
236251
245497
310956
349963
442058
Shanghai
2935569
3326199
4058972
6389667
8651240
9562422
11393834
Jiangsu
1986953
2247787
3182342
5450467
8335995
10495916
12357660
Zhejiang
838987
982239
1254508
1981986
2706983
3058652
3825385
Anhui
117486
133324
172784
287897
327468
392967
542077
Fujian
831439
870116
1102674
1419491
1815290
1958374
2139783
Jiangxi
42664
49188
64249
102181
153407
161983
244048
Shandong
946092
1083285
1282665
1808238
2482090
3061437
3661492
Henan
78712
107686
108454
173266
244495
263725
316154
Hubei
128731
178041
185488
245393
338946
462579
550211
Hunan
85951
100498
108055
158651
233696
225316
225721
7818118
8106590
10263357
13070167
16557473
18981808
22526319
Guangxi
54488
56167
92303
121608
189164
230533
307352
Hainan
48497
94908
104749
140870
230915
156921
147045
Chongqing
79024
73136
70206
100979
176616
320387
211867
Sichuan
115082
151644
175690
242571
288773
177227
280131
Guizhou
23942
22468
24964
39636
64712
54463
57836
Yunan
63767
74432
79705
99109
151227
210033
284035
Tibet
1697
1054
4925
3860
6967
4009
10618
Mongolia
Liaoning
Guangdong
Shaanxi
83003
95287
84800
104848
124580
150006
173123
Gansu
15458
30256
32849
45000
77664
154248
231053
Qinghai
4773
5577
4565
6526
12075
9010
11752
Ningxia
11555
18093
11473
14128
26195
27915
49450
Xinjiang
105991
110027
138320
222977
258927
290165
196404