PROFITABILITY

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PROFITABILITY

Term used to measure the amount of profit from a certain investment

Total Profit cannot be used as means of comparing investments.

Example:

Investment Profit

$ 100,000 10,000$/yr

$ 1,000,000 25,000$/yr

The second investment has a larger profit. However, when the profit is compared to the investment, the first investment looks better.

METHODS OF PROFITABILITY

EVALUATION

1) RATE OF RETURN (ROI)

ROI=

Pr ofit After Taxes ( PAT )

TCI

(If Depreciation is not included in PAT, use CASH

FLOW instead)

Since equipment depreciate, it is better to use average values over the life of the project .

Averaged Annual Pr ofit

ROI=

Averaged TCI

Averaged TCI = FCI -Salvage Value + Working Capital

RETURN BASED ON CAPITAL

RECOVERY WITH MINIMUM PROFIT

Incorporate a certain Minimum Profit desired as a fictitious expense

ROI=

Income

Expense

Min . Pr ofit

TCI

Return calculated in this manner gives the

RISK EARNING RATE

Caution: It is better to use CASH FLOW instead of INCOME-EXPENSE

Return of Investment is a point value.

Calculations are done for a particular or average year.

* No time value of money is included

ROI BASED ON DISCOUNTED CASH

FLOW

Assume

1) A loan at interest i is used to finance

the project.

2) The cash flow of the project is used

to pay principal and interest.

Then ROI = i

EXAMPLE:

FCI = $100,000 Year CF

WC = $ 10,000 1 $ 30,000

V

S

= $ 10,000 2 $ 31,000

n = 5 years 3 $ 36,000

4 $ 40,000

5 $ 43,000

We calculate the future worth of the proceeds at the end of the 5 years (or the cash flow of the project, compounded on the basis of end-of-year income)

S = 30,000 (1+ i ) 4 + 31,000(1+ i ) 3 + 36,000 (1+ i ) 2 +

+ 40,000 (1+ i ) + 43,000

S= n 

CF a

(1+ i ) n-a

CF a

: predicted cash flow for year a

We calculate now the amount of money needed to pay the loan :

V= 110,000 (1+ i ) 5 = TCI(1+ i ) n

Therefore, the future worth of proceeds corrected for salvage value and working capital (recovered at the end) should be equal to V

V=S+V

S

+WC

110,000 (1+ i) 5 = 30,000 (1+ i) 4 + 31,000 (1+ i) 3 +

+36,000 (1+ i) 2 +40,000(1+ i)

+43,000+10,000+10,000

TCI(1+i) n = n 

CF a

(1+i) n-a +V

S

+WC

This is a polynomial of degree n. Solve it, i.e. find the root.

For the example i =0.207 ROI=20.7%

Note : i corresponds to zero future value of proceeds as compared to the FCI.

DCF Referred to Present Time

Present Value of Investment =

Present Value of Cash Flows

TCI = n 

CF a

(1+i) -a +(V

S

+WC)(1+i) -n

So, if the cash flow is equal for all years

(the simplest situation possible), then

TCI =CF n 

(1+i) -a +(V

S

+WC)(1+i) -n

NET PRESENT WORTH

Present value of annual cash flows - initial investment.

EXAMPLE : Same data as before.

Assume the capital of the company is normally put at 15% interest.

Year Cash Flow Present Value

1 $ 30,000 $ 26,087 (

=30,000/(1+i)

)

2 $ 31,000 $ 23,440 (

=31,000/(1+i) 2

)

3 $ 36,000 $ 23,670

4 $ 40,000 $ 22,870

5 $ 43,000

+ $ 20,000 $ 31,332

TOTAL = 127,399

NET PRESENT WORTH = $127,399+

- $110,000 =

$17,399

NPW= a

1 n 

1

CF a +

CF n

V

S

WC

- TCI

CAPITALIZED COST

PROFITABILITY

Useful for comparing alternatives within a single project. (Recall the stainless steel vs. Mild steel reactor example)

BASIC EQUATION :

K = C

V

+

( 1

C

R i ) n

1

But C

V

= C

R

+V

S.

Then

K = C

R

( 1

( 1

 i ) i ) n

 n

1

+ V

S

( 1

( 1

 i ) i n

) n

 

1

: Capitalized Cost factor.

K is the amount of money needed initially to purchase equipment and perpetually replace it.

Extension to include Operating Costs

Consider operating costs as a piece of equipment that lasts for one year and has zero scrap value.

Calculate the present value of each year’s cost

(as in net present worth method) and then calculate the capitalized cost of these annual cash expenses. (K

O

).

EXAMPLE : Assume i =15% and the following Operating Costs.

Year Op. Costs Present Value

1 $ 30,000 $ 26,087

2 $ 30,000 $ 22,684

3 $ 30,000 $ 19,725

4 $ 30,000 $ 17,153

5 $ 30,000 $ 14,915

TOTAL = $ 100,565

K

O

= $ 100,565

5

( . ) 5

1

= $ 200,000

Therefore :

Net present worth of annual Op. Costs: a

1

C a 

1

( 1 i ) a

Capitalized Cost of annual Op. costs

K

O

=

( 1

( 1

 i ) i n

) n

 

1 a

1

C a 

1

( 1 i ) a

If C a

is equal for all years, then :

K

O

=

( 1

( 1

 i ) i n

) n

 

1

C

1

1 i

General formula

Cap. Cost = K + K

O

+ Working Capital

PAYOUT PERIOD

Minimum length of time needed to recover the investment in a form of cash flow.

Payout =

FCI

Average Cash Flow

Other names are : Payback, Payoff, Cash

Recovery period.

Inclusion of Interest

Payout =

FCI

Interest on TCI

Average Cash Flow

Interest on TCI is calculated as annual cash flows discounted at interest rate I to get an average annual value.

ACCEPTABLE RETURNS

Need to compare with other investments and their risks

Investment Return Risk

Government 5-7% Almost

Bonds none

Preferred Stock 7-9 % Some

Common Stock >9 % Higher

INVESTMENT COMPARISON

EXAMPLE

Investment Profit ROI

$ 1,200,000 $ 240,000 20 %

$ 2,000,000 $ 300,000 15%

Assume your minimum profitability is 10%

If amount of investment is not the issue, we are faced with two options:

1) Invest 1,200,000 and put

$800,000 in some other place

2) Invest $2,000,000

INCREMENTAL INVESTMENT

Incremental investment =$800,000

Incremental profit =$ 60,000.

This corresponds to a ROI of 7.5%.

Bad deal !! Put the $800,000 in some other investment.

FOR-SAVINGS INVESTMENTS

EXAMPLE : Consider a heat exchanger installation to recover energy. Assume there are

4 alternatives.

ALT. FCI OPER. VALUE OF

COST HEAT SAVED

1 $10,000 $100 $4,100

2 $16,000 $100 $6,000

3 $20,000 $100 $6,900

4 $26,000 $100 $8,850

Assume a depreciation of 20%/yr and a minimum ROI of 10

% Then

Savings=Value-depreciation-Operating costs

ALT. SAVINGS ROI INCREMENTAL

(over ALT 1)

1 $2,000 20 % -

2 $2,700 16.9% 11.7%

3 $2,800 14 % 2.5%

4 $3,550 13.6 % 8.5%

Pick Alternative 2

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