TITLE OBJECTIVES MANAGEMENT SUMMARY PROBLEM STATEMENT CHINA X INDIA X SWOT of the company General Information X X X X X X MACROECONOMIC GDP GDP per Capita GDP growth rate Unemployment Trade Balance X X X x X X X X X X MICROECONOMIC Socio Economic Classes Concentration of wealth Intercultural behavior Spread between TV and GDP x capita Income Tobias-ShanShan Tobias ShanShan Andres Tobias Vinit ShanShan Andes Tobias PROBLEM SOLVING APPROACH COMPETITORS CUSTOMERS ENTRANCE STRATEGY REGULATIONS TOPIC Tv industry analysis Forecast Distribution System Structure Who is in the market Communication Strategies of the competitors B&O Customer Behavior Consumption structure Analysis of the customer X X Meifang X Meifang Sirma Vinit Sirma X X X B-to-B General Import - Export Vinit Vinit Vinit Vinit Nesli Nesli EUROPE X X X X TABLE OF CONTENT TABLE OF CONTENT....................................................................................................................... 2 OBJECTIVES.................................................................................................................................... 3 MAIN OBJECTIVE ....................................................................................................................... 3 SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................. 3 MANAGEMENT SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... 4 PROBLEM STATEMENT .................................................................................................................. 5 PROBLEM SOLVING APPROACH .................................................................................................... 6 SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY .......................................................................................... 6 GENERAL INFORMATION........................................................................................................... 7 CHINA ...................................................................................................................................... 10 OVERVIEW OF CONSUMER PRODUCT BRANDS IN CHINA .................................................. 10 BRAND DEVELOPMENT OF CONSUMER PRODUCTS IN CHINA ........................................... 10 BRAND FEATURES OF CHINESE CONSUMER PRODUCTS ..................................................... 11 TV INDUSTRY ANALYSIS IN CHINA ....................................................................................... 11 CONSUMER BEHAVIOR........................................................................................................ 14 ANALYSIS OF CHINESE CONSUMER MARKET ...................................................................... 17 TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND CURRENT MARKET TREND IN CHINA ............................... 18 RISK ANALYSIS IN CHINA ..................................................................................................... 18 BENEFITS TO ESTABLISH BRAND IMAGE IN CHINA ............................................................. 19 METROPOLITAN CITIES IN CHINA ........................................................................................ 20 COST ANALYSIS IN CHINA .................................................................................................... 20 SETTING UP THE BUSINESS IN CHINA .................................................................................. 20 INDIA ....................................................................................................................................... 20 RULES AND REGULATIONS IN INDIA.................................................................................... 21 TV INDUSTRY ANALYSIS FOR INDIA ..................................................................................... 21 COMPETITOR BAHAVIOR IN INDIA ...................................................................................... 21 TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND CURRENT MARKET TREND IN INDIA ................................ 21 RISK ANALYSIS IN INDIA....................................................................................................... 21 METROPOLITAN CITIES IN INDIA ......................................................................................... 22 2 COST ANALYSIS IN INDIA ..................................................................................................... 22 SETTING UP THE BUSINESS IN INDIA ................................................................................... 22 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................. 23 RECOMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................................... 23 LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................................................... 23 OBJECTIVES MAIN OBJECTIVE To evaluate the possibilities of expanding the business for Loewe AG in the most growing markets, China and India. SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES Analyze the Chinese and Indian consumer Behavior. Evaluate the TV Industry in both the countries. To determine the involved risk in investing in mentioned countries. Analyze the competitor strategies in these markets. Evaluate the metropolitan strategy. To develop an expansion process for Loewe AG. To find out some key existing factors that may affect Loewe AG in these markets. 3 MANAGEMENT SUMMARY 4 PROBLEM STATEMENT In the world of globalization and new economic development of global economies it is becoming important for all companies to find better markets to achieve its short term and long term goals. It’s becoming more and more important to save cost and be more efficient in producing quality products with updated technology. Loewe AG is a Medium-size company founded in 1923 in Berlin, specialized in producing high-quality television, DVD recorders and Hi-Fi systems that are also available as complete home cinema system solutions. In the European countries, the whole market share of Loewe is 3.3% in all technologies, and in LCD technologies is 4%. Loewe has a stable market share in Germany, Netherlands and Belgium, and have potential growth in UK (1%), Spain (5%), France (2%), Italy (1%) and Portugal (1%). Loewe wants to achieve 5% market share in 2 years in these countries. Germany is Loewe’s most important market having 11.3% of market share in LCD-TV. In 2005, about 80% of the company's profit was earned through flat screen TVs. Loewe also manufactures LCD television sets for Sharp Corporation, which owns a 29% stake in the company. At Loewe AG, the challenges faced are not different. It becomes very critical and strategic issue to find the most suitable economy in long term perspective, where it can get its potential target market with a potential future growth. Further it becomes important for the company where and how to start its operations in the selected suitable countries. To analyze the involved risk in those countries keeping in perspective its brand image for a long term successful operations, the challenge is to understand the consumer behavior and competition in the new market. So that the company can run its operations successfully keeping its goals in mind without affecting the society’s interests. 5 According to this, what important aspects of these countries make them interesting for Loewe to invest in them?, does Loewe have an opportunity to gain market share in the Chinese and Indian Markets?, if yes, how can Loewe enter to compete in these markets. PROBLEM SOLVING APPROACH SWOT ANALYSIS OF THE COMPANY The SWOT analysis is a tool that help the companies to identify the positive and negative critical points inside and outside their business. It is very helpful when it is used during a decision making process, because it identifies the aspects that are running good and the ones that they have to improve in order to achieve the objectives, as well as the environmental or external aspects that are in favor of the business or against it. It is interesting if it is compared with the strategic objectives of the company and the specific objectives of the decision that will be made. For the LOEWE’s Market Entry Strategy in Chinese and Indian markets, we can describe the SWOT analysis as it follows: POSITIVE • • • • INSIDE FACTORS • • • • • • • • • OUTSIDE FACTORS • • • Strengths Brand is all-important. Good reputation among customers Right products, quality and reliability. Superior product performance vs competitors. Better product life and durability. Spare manufacturing capacity. Direct delivery capability. Product innovations ongoing. Can serve from existing sites. Management is committed and confident. Productivity, capacity utilization Control over suppliers & distributors. Opportunities Exploration of big potential target market. Chinese and Indian economies are in a good moment. Could develop new suitable products. Local players have comparatively less competent products and NEGATIVE • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Weakness Customer lists not available. Lack of knowledge of new markets. To start with Loewe will be a new and smaller player. Lack of local knowledgeable work force. No pilot survey done yet. Lack of Market research. Existing core business distribution risk. Could distract from core business. Possible negative publicity by customers because its high price high cost structure. Threats Major competitor like B&O Legislation could impact. Existing core business distribution risk. No idea about the new market reaction for the product acceptability. Country and currency risk. 6 services. End-users positive response to new product. Could seek better selling price for better quality. Some local competitors have poor products in china Profit margins will be good. Can surprise competitors. • • • • • • • Market demand . Environmental effects would favor larger competitors. Market demand very seasonal. Retention of key staff critical. Vulnerable to reactive attack by major competitors. Market demand very seasonal. Retention of key staff critical. Vulnerable to reactive attack by major competitors. • • • • • • Table 1 SWOT Analysis After analyzing the SWOT of LOEWE in the Chinese and Indian markets, then we can mix it together in the SWOT Matrix, that is a combination of the Strengths, Opportunities, Weaknesses and Threats, in which is possible to develop some strategies. From these matrix is possible to develop strategies for the short and long term decisions for a specific project. In the case of LOEWE, Developing a Market Entry Strategy to China and India, we find this tool useful to analyze the market. STHRENGTHS • OPPORTUNITIES • • • THREATS • • S-O Strategies Fully using LOEWE’s Strengths, grasping its opportunities when it get into Chinese market. Focusing on its luxury people, its target market should be the high income people in china. Learning from China local TV producer, absorbing some successful. S-t Strategies Identify ways that the LOEWE can use its strengths to reduce its vulnerability to external threats. Focus on young and luxury customers. Walk differently ways from its competitors to get into Chinese market. WEAKNESSES • • • • W-O Strategies LOEWE should overcome weaknesses to pursue opportunities. Employing expertise worker design some kind of TV model which is suitable to Chinese luxury person taste . Using high quality advertisement strategy to introduce itself. W-T Strategies Establish a defensive plan to prevent the firm's weaknesses from making it highly susceptible to external threats. Table 2 SWOT Matrix GENERAL INFORMATION China and India are, in population, the two biggest countries of the world, having 2.700 million people, almost one quarter of the whole world’s population. During the last 10 or 15 years, these two economies have been increasingly growing, improving the life quality of their people, decreasing the unemployment rates, and generating more wealth for the community in general. The general behavior of the GDP and GDP per capita of China and India is the following: 7 GDP (USD bn) GDP per capita USD 9.000 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 9.000 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CHINA INDIA 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 EURO ZONE CHINA INDIA EURO ZONE Image 1 GDP and GDP per capita of China, India and E.U. As we can see in the graphs, the Chinese and Indian economies had followed the same trend as the developed economies like the Euro Zone, following the same growing trend of real income for the people. We can also compare the real growth of the GDP per year, and we can find some similarities, which means that these two economies are following the same pattern of growth and are working in a similar way. GDP Growth Rate (real) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CHINA INDIA EURO ZONE Image 2 GDP Growth (real) of China, India and E.U. According to the real growth of the GDP, we can observe that from the year 2001 the behavior of these three economies has been similar, with a constant and growing rate. Trade Balance (USD bn) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -100 CHINA INDIA Image 3 Trade Balance of China and India 8 Chinese and Indian trade balance show have a different structure, in which China is increasing the amount of USD exported in relation with the imports. India has the opposite behavior, the imports exceed the exports in USD, which makes the trade balance increasingly negative during the last years. Exchange Rate India Exchange Rate China 60 8,4 8,3 50 8,2 40 8,1 8 30 7,9 20 7,8 7,7 10 7,6 0 7,5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Image 4 Exchange Rate of USD International Reserves USD bn 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CHINA INDIA Image 5 International Reserve of China and India Inflation Rates 20 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -5 CHINA INDIA Image 6 Inflation Rate of China and India 9 CHINA Officially the People’s Republic of China is the world largest country in population, and located in East Asia is one of the largest in size, which represents a great market opportunity for any enterprise who wants to open markets abroad. China has the one-fifth of the world’s population, 1,300 million people spread in 9,598,086 sq kilometers, which represents a population density of 140 people per sq km. It’s borders are by the east with North Korea and the East China Sea; Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan on the north; Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan on the west; and India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar (Burma), Laos, Vietnam, and the South China Sea on the south. China’s cities have a long and important tradition as centers of ceremonial and administrative power. Over the centuries they have evolved into multifunctional commercial and trade centers, and more recently into industrial centers. China has more than 60 cities in which the population of the contiguous built-up urban area exceeds 1 million. (Administratively, many cities also include substantial agricultural land.) China’s major cities include Shanghai, the country’s largest urban area and a major port; Beijing, the capital and cultural center of China; Hong Kong, an island metropolis administered by Britain until 1997; Tianjin, a port city lying at the juncture of the Hai River and the Grand Canal; Shenyang, a center of heavy industry in northeastern China; Wuhan, a port city situated at the confluence of the Han and Yangtze rivers; Guangzhou, a port city on the Zhu Jiang (Pearl River); and Chongqing, a major inland port on the Yangtze River. While all large Chinese cities have significant industrial bases, these cities especially have expanded their service and support economies in recent years. OVERVIEW OF CONSUMER PRODUCT BRANDS IN CHINA As multinational enterprises started to invest in China, they also introduced their brand images. For a company, such as Loewe, it is very important to understand the brand development of both local and foreign consumer products, and then Loewe will know which market segment it should set in. BRAND DEVELOPMENT OF CONSUMER PRODUCTS IN CHINA Before 1949 When China hadn’t become a communism country, the brands then were basically the result of their own products. Most of them were in handcrafts industry and lacked of economic scale, 10 such as Chinese herbal medicine, beer brewery in Tsingtao, a city in north-east China, and restaurants. 1949—1979 Because of Chinese planned economic program, the brand development was hindered. Most brands of consumer products belonged to China itself and were of light industry, such as bicycle and TV. After 1979 Since China embraced Capitalism gradually after 1979, a lot of multinational brands have launched their business in China successfully by the means of establishing their brand images which have been adopted worldwide, such as Motorola, Volkswagen, McDonald’s and Kodak. China also has developed its own brands such as Lenovo computer and Haier refrigerator. BRAND FEATURES OF CHINESE CONSUMER PRODUCTS Some Chinese own brands have dominated market shares in each of their own industry. For example, most first-time Chinese consumers buy Lenovo Computer and are proud of Lenovo acquiring IBM PC division and Changhong TV has most of market share in China TV industry. But those brands still face some problems. They lack of skilled marketing specialists, wellfounded marketing strategies and management systems. For those brands are previously state-owned and can easily get into Chinese consumer market. Moreover, setting up the lowest price is most adopted strategy among every industry, which hugely reduces the margin profit. On the other hand, foreign brands focus on long-term development in China Market and aren’t willing to lower the price. Adding that consumers of developing country have stronger brand preference than those of developed country, Chinese consumers put more value on brand recognition, package and brand history of prestige one. Foreign brands have more advantages in those areas. TV INDUSTRY ANALYSIS IN CHINA OVERVIEW During the last years the TV industry in China have had a huge development in terms of competitors. At the beginning of this century, they were around 9 different LCD TV brands in the Chinese market, and at the end of the year 2005 this number was over 55 different brands. Including all the private Chinese companies, the state owned and the foreign invested companies. The following is the development of the Chinese market in terms of LCD TV competitors in the market. 11 In March 2005 the Chinese government announced the first tax incentives for the TFT-LCD industry. Along with the country's continuing shift towards digital TV, this helped create a favorable environment for LCD TV industry growth. Currently, China's LCD TV industry has three main clusters: the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Bohai Sea area. The most popular and common LCD TV manufactories in China, including Taiwan, are BenQ, Changhong, Chimei, Haier, Hisense, Hitachi, Kolin, Konka, Lenovo, LG, Olevia, Panasonic, Philips, Polyvision, Prima, Proton, Sampo, Samsung, Sharp, Shinco, Skyworth, Sony, SVA, Tatung, TCL, Teco, Toshiba, Viewsonic. LCD TV Companies in the Chinese Market 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2003 Private Chinese companies 2004 Foreign Invested companies 2005 State owned companies Image 7 LCD TV companies in the Chinese market The local players in Chinese TV market are increasing. The latest trend shows the increase in number of foreign players is comparatively high. Chinese consumer is becoming techno savvy which could be an opening for Loewe AG in the technological aspect of the brand. The following chart gives a brief note of the development of LCD TV industry in China: Company Jilin Caijing Shanghai Video & Audio Electronics Co. Beijing Orient Electronics Group Co. Shanghai Video & Audio Electronics Co. Beijing Orient Electronics Group Co. Date Issue 1990s Introducing the FPD industry Building the first TFT-LCD generation production line 1998 Results 2005 Achieving scale production of the fifth generation production lines Milestone in TFT-LCD industry 2007 Building the sixth TFT-LCD generation production line Turning to high-end market Technical Weaknesses Lack of upstream resources and no complete industrial chains at all. Table 3 China LCD industry development 12 The rising of China FPD market provides an equal opportunity for both Chinese companies and multi-national companies, especially for Asian manufacturers. For further development of their TFT-LCD industry, Japan, Korea, and China Taiwan will surely explore the market in China mainland. Those who can make it into China mainland earlier will lead in this market in the future. Samsung clearly stated that its future depended on China, while Sharp set up its plan to develop Chinese market in 2004 by advocating a “three-year strategy leading with LCD”. While at the same time, since TFT-LCD industry requires high technology and high investment, cooperation and acquisition become the keynote. The followings are the most important cooperation between Chinese manufactories and foreign manufactories. Image 8 Cooperation among Chinese and Foreign LCD Manufactories The growth of LCD industry in China can only be achieved through international cooperation and since China has already lagged behind, it is both wise and necessary to learn from Japan, Korea and Taiwan, and to seek cooperation with them. The LCD industry in China mainland needs global capital and technologies, while overseas manufacturers need local support for exploring Chinese market. SALES AND GROWTH It was reported that in the first half year of 2006, the domestic sales of Chinese LCD TV is 3,770,000, which increased by 198% compared with last year.1 And LCD TV manufactories, such as, Skyworth, Changhong, Hisense etc., claim that their LCD TV yield is more than 1,000,000 very year. According to the growth increase of LCD TV, the sales will be forecasted up to 14.000,000 in the end of 2008, although the growth rate will decline in the global LCD TV market. 1 http://china.nikkeibp.co.jp/china/news/sino/sino200609130130.html 13 The growing rate of the LCD TV market has been amazing since the year 2002, which has an average growth rate of 340% yearly. The development of the market has been the following: Chinese domestic LCD TV sales and growth rate 4.000.000 600% 3.500.000 480% 500% 445% 3.000.000 400% 2.500.000 2.000.000 300% 263% 1.500.000 200% 198% 1.000.000 100% 500.000 0 0% 2002 2003 2004 Domestic Sales 2005 2006 Growth Image 9 Chinese domestic sales and growth rate http://china.nikkeibp.co.jp/china/news/sino/sino200609130130.html Image 10 Sales forecast of LCD TV in China www.cciddata.com/2006zt_10/yejing.htm CONSUMER BEHAVIOR 14 A ranking of the preferences in LCD TVs of the Chinese costumers show us which are the more powerful brands in China, and gives us a base for looking in a benchmarking with these companies that are the ones with the greatest attraction for the costumers. Philips, Samsung, Skyworth and Sony are the leaders in the Chinese market, are the ones preferred by the costumers. We have to keep in mind that this study is not stratified, it is not segmented in the high class, just in TV preferences of the people in general. Philips 14% Others 17% TCL 4% Samsung 13% Toshiba 5% Changhong 6% Skyworth 10% Sharp 7% LG 7% Hisense 8% Sony 9% Image 11 TV brand preferences in China http://www.ce.cn/cysc/zgjd/kx/200710/09/t20071009_13163483.shtml According to the characteristic of consumer behavior, we classify the LCD TV consumer groups into five types: Basic demand type, price-drive type, potential consumer, brand-guided type and function hi-fi type.2 The basic demand type is more that the others, which reflects the demand trend of simplifying in LCD TV. However in Loewe case, we focus on the last two types which occupy 22% consumption. In 2005-2007, the families which want to buy LCD TV, are increasing up to 82.5% from 53.4% of the whole TV potential consumers. And LCD TV becomes the first choice for most of the costumers. 2 http://www.chinabgao.com/reports/24604.html 15 12% 25% Price-drived type Brand-guided type Function hi-fi type 10% 38% Basic demand type Potential consumer 15% Image 12 Consumption types in China LCD TV market Besides that, we also study the relationship of family income and LCD TV possessing. Now the criterion of middle year income is 51,000 RMB( ~5000 EURO) , and more than 80,000 RMB is the high year income. According to the investigation by Gallup, the families which earn more than 51,000RMB every year, occupy 27% in the urban mass which is 40% of the national population.3 The increase of income makes this high-income population purchase the luxuries, and 48% of high-income families tends to buying the foreign brand goods. It is reported by MasterCard International that there is 39% rich class which is in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou, and this percentage will increase up to 47%.4 Here the criterion of the rich class is more than 25,000 Dollar of family year income. And China had 2,900,000 such families in 2005. It is predicted that the number will be up to 8,500,000 in 2015 and these families can control 117 billion Dollar. And the age of the rich class arranges from 31 to 46 years old, which occupies 64% of the rich class. The following table shows that Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou will be the best LCD TV markets for the foreign high-end brand, although the European and America brands only have 7% market share of the whole China LCD TV market. CITY LCD TV Market Share Main Product Chinese brands Foreign brands 35% 65% Size > 40” Small and Medium cities 70% 30% Size < 37” Average 48% 52% (Japan 29%, Korea 16%, Europe and Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou 3 http://www.southcn.com/news/china/china05/fortume/news/200505170648.htm 4 http://biz.xmnext.com/guancha/2007/08/16/846780.html Family annual Income Rich class: 25.000 Euro Middle class: 8.000-10.000 Euro < 5.000 Euro 2.700 Euro 16 America 7%) Table 4 2006-2007 Consumption information of Chinese LCD TV market The Chinese consumption for these century is estimated to spend 12.7% of the income in housing, which includes buying electronic devices for the house, like TV sets or audio sets, and so on. The complete consumption proportion is the following: 3,70% Food 12,10% Dressing 37,90% 11,60% Household Transport Education 8,70% Medical Care Housing 8,60% 10,00% 7,30% Others Image 13 21st century Chinese normal family consumption proportion and structure ANALYSIS OF CHINESE CONSUMER MARKET 1. The huge gap between rich and poor: As Chinese economy is booming up, the gap between rich and poor grows dramatically. Luxury goods will have a great potential in Chinese market. Targeting at those at top of pyramid will be a smart marketing strategy. 2. The extremely different development between city and countryside: China is still a developing country. Affected by its previous communist planned economic model, China has a huge different development degree between city and countryside, agriculture sector and non-agriculture sector, which results in an extreme unbalance of social structure. For example, when there was a glut of household equipment in metropolises, people living countryside can’t even afford basic household commodities. The unbalance is worsened by Chinese poor and underfunded infrastructures, such as road and sewage system; on the other hand, yuppies in the cities are now more of frenzy-outlook than functional oriented. Coincidently, for the thousand years, most cities and areas which enjoy economic prosperity are located in coast area or important convergences along Yangtze River or Yellow River. The huge swath of west area is still underdeveloped and poor. 3. The diversity of consumer products: As GDP per capita is constantly growing, especially in those coast cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen, where GDP per capita are over 8000 USD, consumer behavior in metropolises has already gone beyond the areas of basic commodities such as food and energy, rather in the areas of laptop, digital camera and DVD player. With the same time of mounting life standard and increasing amount of holidays, there is a great change in Chinese consumer behavior model. For example, consumers in metropolises are looking for both the best quality products and enjoyable 17 shopping experiences. And, exotic products and lifestyle brands, such as flat TV and PDA can carve out a significant niche among the rapidly growing urban middle and upper class with the right strategy and disciplined execution. 4. Children and teenagers are very important marketing target for most electronic products: most Chinese families only have one child, because of Chinese one-child policy. As a result, parents are more willing to spend money on children. To implant the brand recognition of these high-class electronic products in the young generation will bring a great profit in the future, because these electronic products will be their top-priority choice when they grow up. TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND CURRENT MARKET TREND IN CHINA There is a very important feature in China LCD TV market, which is the increase in the TV size. In 2003, size 15 and 17-inch were the hot sizes, and in 2006, 40 and 42-inch had become the hottest ones.5 However after one year they were out of date, and replaced by larger size, such as 46, 50-inch. The size increasing within the time is a fashion trend that has been a constant during several years, and shows the industry that for the following years the hot sizes are going to be bigger than the actual ones. Image 14 TV Market Trend in China RISK ANALYSIS IN CHINA The CRA or Country Risk Analysis deals with the risks involved in making investments in a foreign country, in terms of financial results or strategic interests of the firm. In this case we are going to analyze Chinese and Indian country risk, highlighting the critical positive and negative aspects of each of the following risks: Economic, Political, Local and Exchange. According to the critical points, we are going to give our own rating in a scale from 1 to 10, being 1 very risky and 10 not risky. 5 http://china.nikkeibp.co.jp/china/news/sino/sino200609130130.html 18 The CRA for China is the following: RISK Economic Risk Political Risk Local Risk Exchange Risk POSITIVE NEGATIVE - GDP (nominal) – $2.650 trillion (2006 – 4th in the world) - GDP (PPP) - $10.21 trillion (2006 – Ranked 2nd after USA) - GDP growth rate – 11.1% (2006) - Domestic demand growth – av. 9.3% (2002-2006) - Population – 1.300 mil. – enormous market – big market opportunities - Poverty rate down from 53% in 1981 to 8% in 2001 - Positive trade balance in last 15 years - Reforms towards more marketoriented economy - Economic incentives held by the government through a variety of direct and indirect control mechanisms - Quite open for FDI – one of the leading recipients in the world, facilitating foreign investors and eliminating certain trade-related investment measures - Situated in considerably stable region - Good relations with North Korea, which is one of the neighboring country - A permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and other multilateral organizations - Cooperative relations with ASEAN - Improving relations with South Asian countries, including India - Improving relations with Russia - GDP per capita (Nominal) – $2.034 (107th of 179) (2006) – classified as “low” by world standards - Tax inspection difficulties - Anti-dumping retaliation - Discretionary authority of the customs administrative - High level of corruption and economic crimes - Poor supervision of counterfeit goods - Independently functioning Central Bank that formulates and implements monetary policy, prevents and resolves financial risks, and safeguards financial stability - Fixed currency rate that leads to an unbalanced relationship between money supply and demand SCORE - Constant battle between the country’s central government and the provincial and local governments over applicable law, which make it difficult for companies operating in China to know which is the applicable law - Inadequate Intellectual Property Rights regulation law - USA is accusing China of its inapplicable IPR law, which results in billions of dollars loss for the US economy. At the same time USA are willing to put some barriers to Chinese export - Not very good relations with Japan Table 5 Chinese Risk Analysis BENEFITS TO ESTABLISH BRAND IMAGE IN CHINA Before Loewe launch its business in China, Loewe should have a series of sound market strategies, such as experiential marketing and establishing a brand image instead of entering in aimlessly. There are several benefits for Loewe to establish brand image while launching its business in China. First of all, Loewe will have bigger room for bargaining, setting higher prices than its peers. Then Loewe will enjoy longer product lifecycle. Consumers will be impressed by 19 its product, and Lowe will no longer have to spend as much money as it did at beginning for advertisement. Finally, Loewe will have better ability to adapt Chinese easily-changing consumer market. Highly recognized brand products aren’t easily affected by economic downturn, because of its strong consumer loyalty. METROPOLITAN CITIES IN CHINA COST ANALYSIS IN CHINA SETTING UP THE BUSINESS IN CHINA INDIA Officially the Republic of India is a sovereign nation in South Asia. It is the seventh largest country by geographical area, the second most populous country, and the most populous democracy in the world. Bounded by the Indian Ocean on the south, the Arabian Sea on the west, and the Bay of Bengal on the east, India has a coastline of 7,517 kilometers (4,671 mi). It borders Pakistan to the west; China, Nepal, and Bhutan to the north-east; and Bangladesh and Burma to the east. In the Indian Ocean, India is in the vicinity of Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Indonesia. India is the world's twelfth largest economy at market exchange rates and the third largest economy in purchasing power. Economic reforms have transformed it into the second fastest growing large economy; however, it still suffers from high levels of poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition and environmental degradation. A pluralistic, multi-lingual, and multi-ethnic society, India is also home to a diversity of wildlife in a variety of protected habitats. India's largest cities are Mumbai (formerly Bombay), Delhi, Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), Chennai (formerly Madras), Bangalore, and Hyderabad. 20 RULES AND REGULATIONS IN INDIA TV INDUSTRY ANALYSIS FOR INDIA COMPETITOR BAHAVIOR IN INDIA TECHNOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND CURRENT MARKET TREND IN INDIA RISK ANALYSIS IN INDIA For India we have the following CRA: RISK Economic Risk Political Risk POSITIVE NEGATIVE - GDP (Nominal) - $1,089.94 billion (2007 – 12th in the world) - GDP $4.726 trillion (PPP) (2007 – 3d in the world). - GDP growth rate – 9.7% (2005/06) (2nd fast growing economy in the world). - Domestic Demand Growth – av. – 7%-8%. - Population - 1,200 million (2nd most populated country in the world) – big market opportunities. - Since the liberalization the value of India’s international trade has become more broad-based and has risen. - Poverty is declining since the Independence. - Reforms were made that allow automatic approval of FDI in many sectors, i.e. India is quite open to FDI (one of the most preferred destinations). - Public sector covers only too important and non-profitable enough sectors. - Initiatives were held by the Indian - GDP per capita - $964 (2006)(nominal). - The World Bank classifies India as a low-income economy. - 25% of the population is below the poverty line. - increasingly negative trade balance ($43 billion for 2007). SCORE - High level of corruption. - Evasion of tax and exchange controls. - Embezzlement. - Sharp and growing regional variations among India’s different states. - Big problems with infrastructure. 21 Local Risk Exchange Risk parliament for reducing the level of poverty. - Reforms, reducing the rates of individual and corporate income taxes, excises, customs. - Simplification of laws and procedures. - Since 1991 India is not in isolation anymore. - A founding member of GATT and then a member of WTO; a member of SAFTA and other international organizations. - In good trade relations with China, USA, UAE, UK, the countries from EU and Japan. - Situated in a considerably unstable region. - India is in very bad relations with Pakistan, which has a very bad impact on its inner stability. The country spends a lot for maintaining a big army. - Foreign exchange reserves have risen from US$5.8 billion in March 1991 to US$270 billion in 2007. - The Reserve Bank of India has independence from the government and it serves as the nation’s monetary authority, regulator and supervisor of the financial system, manager of exchange control and as an issuer of currency. - The exchange rate of the Indian Rupee is floating, with unannounced interventions of the reserve bank to control the floating. - Since 2005 the value of Indian Rupee has been appreciating against the US dollar, British pound and EURO. - External Debt service is decreasing in relation of the exports, which means the growth is assuming the debts. Table 6 Indian Risk Analysis METROPOLITAN CITIES IN INDIA COST ANALYSIS IN INDIA checklist SETTING UP THE BUSINESS IN INDIA 22 CONCLUSIONS RECOMENDATIONS LIMITATIONS 23