International Conference on Mathematics, Science, and Education 2015 (ICMSE 2015)
Statistics: Between Lying and Reality
Sukestiyarno1
1.
Department of Mathematics Semarang State University Indonesia
ABSTRACT
Publication of the book entitled "How to lie with statistics" (Huff, 1954), "So luegt man mit dem Statistik" (Kraemer,
1994), "Berbohong dengan Statistik" (Soetikno, 2002) has influenced the impression some readers, that statistics is a lie.
An information which is presented in statistics, especially in advertising through mass media such as television,
newspapers, radio sometimes bring the people in thinking about the truth or lying. Sometime people have many ways to
make a trick in lying through statistics. For people who are not wise and careful in capturing information, they can come
in negative thinking that statistical presentation contains a lie. This paper describes about information in statistical
presentation that will encourage the people to analyze whether the information is a lie or the truth. Here, people will be
encouraged to think critically and creatively that the statistical presentation is not a lie, but it is part of trick to convince
the audiences.
Key Word: lie, reality, statistics
With statistics one can simplify the problem
because statistics can give a general description of the
problem. In order to find the good statistics presentation,
presenter sometime manipulate the scale of diagram or
the performance of presentation. Through this
manipulation we can bring the reader in an one
conclusion. From these facts, some people believed that
statistics is a reality right. Several of people think that the
statistical presentation contains of many manipulation. It
can bring in suspicion that statistics is a lie. Some time
the people do not believe any more of the statistics
presentation. Disraeli (prime minister of Britain in 18 th
century) wrote, that there are only 3 lies namely not
reality, lie, and statistics.
Regardless of their interpretation that statistics
is as a reality or as a lie, but in the reality that statistics is
still needed by humans in daily life. On this occasion,
readers will be invited to discuss between reality and lie.
It is true that statistics is a lie or the opposite that it is
reality right. Through this situation, it come to an idea
that we should learn more about statistics, think smart,
meticulous, and do not to be careless. In this paper will
present about what kind of information about lying with
statistics, educate carefully, how to mark statistics in
carefully.
INTRODUCTION
Many statistics reports can be found in
newspaper, magazine, book report. For example to
present the data about result sport competition, financial
workers, cars accident, unemployment trend, and others,
they can be presented in statistics reports. Statistics has
special role to help the people in daily life. If we have
something complicated data, through the power full of
statistics it can be made clear and easy to understand in
presenting statistics.
Statistics has many kinds of good presenting
data. The possibility presenting data with pie diagram,
bar diagram, pictogram, scatter plot data, pictogram or
paragraph report. The choosing presentation, it depends
on the goal of presentation. If we want to express about
comparation of the result competition election, choosing
pie diagram will help the reader fast to catch the message
of presentation. Otherwise to present the data which have
relation with the time and will show trend of the data,
choosing line diagram is advised. If we want to express
about the accuracy of the data we use table column and
row. And also, if we want to make the audience
interested in looking the presentation, we’d better use
pictogram.
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International Conference on Mathematics, Science, and Education 2015 (ICMSE 2015)
EXPERIMENTAL
information can be declared righteous due to
different bases.
Consider the diagram in Figure 1 and Figure 2
below. The area of the two circles look like
different area. That can be happen because the basis
of different backgrounds. In fact both of them have
the same area.
In 1954, Huff wrote the subject about “How to
lie with statistics”. Then there are some studies about
this subject in other language, Kraemer (1994) wrote in
Germany, Soetikno (2002) wrote in Indonesia. They
wrote the information adjusted to close in daily life. Now
we will discuss all of these statistics presentation with
wise and careful in capturing. Through the presentation
and explanation we will analyze whether the information
is a lie or the truth. We will be encouraged to think
critically and creatively that the statistical presentation is
not a lie, but it is part of trick to convince the audiences.
1.
2.
Picture 1a; Circle in dark Picture 1b: circle in held
Samples were basically already biased
If we collect the questionnaires to the students,
come to the question "Do you use a sanitary napkin
brand C" or "Do you use insect repellent brand B? '.
Another case of infidelity issues in the metropolitan
Jakarta "Have you ever had an affair?". From the
results of the questionnaire come to the conclusion,
that 70% of Indonesian women wear pads C, 99%
of the people can sleep soundly without interruption
when wearing mosquito repellent brand B, the
statement that 2 of the 3 Jakarta Metropolitan men
affair. This result would be different when applied
to the students in the rural areas for the use of pads,
use insect repellent in elite housing, or the ratio of
the affair in an area that the majority of high or
devout spiritual life.
Picture 2a: line in four
The same situation in Figure 2. Figure 2a seems
smaller than in figure 2b. This is actually just
swindled the additional lines in the Figure 2a. In
fact both of them are the same size.
4.
Be careful with the grain curves
Consider the data in the Table 1. It was presented in
Figure 3 in line diagram.
Table 1: Production Data Condoms in Thousands
The accuracy of the virtual
If someone would pay phones in a telephone kiosk,
we should pay Rp 1000, - when the telephone
counter is written Rp 950, -. Or another example of
such a written mortgage Rp 318,750, -, then the
person required to pay Rp 320.000, -. If we ask to
the people who live in village "how many miles
should be reach to the chief's house, they would
answer" not much, just ½ miles, turn left at the first
cross you will find a large tree and then turn right in
3 minutes ". But in reality the distance that must be
taken is about 2 km.
Presenting Table 1 in line diagram, described as
follows:
Figure 3a: increase trend
Figure 3b: monotone
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
105
104
103
102
3.
Picture 2b: line in three
101
Obscurity base
A supermarket write the price of merchandise of Rp
100,000 to Rp 200,000, -. The owner was Able to
raise 100%. Then he/she would give the sale price
for 50% down. Thus the original price of Rp
200,000, - will be Rp 100.000, -. Both of this
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The two diagrams into Figure 3a and 3b presents
the same data but in difference scale. Through this
diagram we can inform in difference ideas. Figure
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International Conference on Mathematics, Science, and Education 2015 (ICMSE 2015)
3a can be used to be sure to the head of the bank
that the factory in increase productions. So that we
can ask for him to fast give a loan of the bank.
Conversely, figure 3b can used to make sure the
government that the factory muss be closed because
there are not increasing but in monotone situation.
Here's another example about the amount of the
cooperative member. It was presented in different
scale in bar diagrams. It looks like different
situation.
Pic 4a: table in increase
month. In this case, found the lack of data makes
the information Becomes biased. There are still
many information about mode, median, quartile,
variance and so on.
6. Manipulation of the average value
The following formula uses the average. There are
many meaning of average in statistics. They are
geometrics average, harmonies average. For
example, if someone buys the shares, one share for
Rp 100,000.-. First year rising to Rp 160,000.00.
But in the second year fell down to Rp 80000.-.
People will calculate the average of them (First year
increasing of 60%, the second year decrease of
50%) is: So that the average is (60% - 50%) / 2 =
5%. In fact the growth in first year to Rp 105,000.-.
And the second year growth to Rp 110,250.-.
Average growth is more appropriate is - 10:56%
obtained from the average geometry (from 1.6 and
0.5 growth minus 1). With this growth obtained first
year: Rp 89.440, - and second year Rp 80.000.-. It
was rational.
Pic:4b table monotone
7. One-dimensional images (presentation pictogram)
In Semarang the labor is Rp 1.350.000, - per month,
in Jakarta is Rp 2.700.000, - per month.
Presentation in bar chart would be easy to
understand, but if it is presented in various forms of
pictograms, it will give to other Interpretations. For
example presenting pictogram with pile of money,
the figure 5 below gives clarity ratio 1:2.
Figure 5: Pictogram in pile of coins
5. Information about average
Mr. Ward gave a report to the leader that in 7th
district there are 10 families. The average of their
cow is 4 cows. After one year the average of cow
increase become 10 caws. The leader was surprised
with that situation. There are 3 families from that
district come to the leader. They want the leader to
help them, because they have a problem with the
money. The will pay for their children to beginning
school. The Leader was surprise because they have
good average cows, but they cannot pay their
problem. So that the leader come direct to the
district to prove the situation. Depend on the
investigation, it turns out the data directly by the
head of the 10 families was only one family has the
cows. At the beginning they have 40 cows, after one
year the cows become 100 cows. In fact the
information was not wrong.
It is example almost identical with the upper
example. The national average of capita Indonesia
is Rp 700,000, - so it is not a poor country. In fact
the average is calculated by the income of the
conglomerate to the income of kindergarten teacher
in a village. They was paid only Rp 25,000,- per
A
B
The other presentation in pictogram of this data is
Figure 6. Comparing figure 5 and figure 6 we have
difference thinking.
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International Conference on Mathematics, Science, and Education 2015 (ICMSE 2015)
some magic to fool friends or hiding behind the truth.
Is it right that all a lie? Is there a statistical products into
three levels lies in the words of Disraeli? If any
information or presentation of statistics is a lie, also the
author will think, so what about the other Scientists. A
legal expert says the implementation of "national exam"
is within their mandate of the Constitution, while on the
other hand said the implementation of the UN human
rights violations. A doctor in severe disease patients say
'it's okay, you just need a break "when the patient's
illness is a matter of time. An economist said "cheap
flowers only 12%" but behind the scenes it's still there
"trappings" money administration, insurance, bonds, cash
waiting and others. An expert in sports "just exercising,
jogging is healthy", do not you realize what's so healthy
that her skin becomes black, legs do not so beautiful
anymore, and so on. A historian / geologists claim that
these fossils x million years old, who is believed. Is not
all the information above also contain lies. By this
situation, the writer propose a third level lies not just
statistics alone.
Let us be wise to respond to all of the above. It is
important we look sharply, really contains false statistics,
use common sense that we do not fall as a victim of
lying. Not all of the statistical information can be tested
with confidence as in the analysis of laboratory tested.
With the explanations below, it will help us to assess
something as a lie or not.
Figure 6: Pictogram in 2-dimensional
Fig 6A
Fig 6B
Fig 6B
Presented in two-dimensional view of Figure 6 can
obscure a person, because the comparison will be
sed on the area of 1:4. Serving others is presented in
the form of bullion beam in Figure 7 with the
following sizes:
Figure 7: Pictogram in 3-Dimentional
If we compare through the ratio of the volume, it
becomes the ratio 1:8.
Figure 8 presents the comparison of the members of
a party in a country. Serving this image will obscure
the people of thinking.
1.
Figure 8: Comparison in measure
892
259
207
254
Who is the informants or source render?
First of all keep in mind is the source of bias, a
laboratory to prove a theory or reputation or profit,
newspaper media who want to present the news in
an interesting, worker or leader who fought his
salary level. For example, Indonesia's capital
worker serving the wholesale exchange rate chart in
reverse in the diagram. It is natural that they do not
observe the fluctuations of dollar but of rupiah, so
they would make a chart upside down. As learned
in school that a little is higher than a large. It is
generally acceptable and is not a lie.
CHINA UDSSR USA EG
Accuracy or Really a Lie?
So far we've got the information that statistical
presentation seems as a lie. As if we get reward a sum of
money as long as it would hide information vague or hide
the truth. On the other side with statistics, we crept as if
Another example is the information overload
from an advertisement impression on television.
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International Conference on Mathematics, Science, and Education 2015 (ICMSE 2015)
For example, seven Indonesian women wear
pads X or bleach to whiten face within six
weeks. That is what traders desire. Obviously
we can draw an inaccurate informant, but we
cannot blame the presentation in statistics.
2.
3.
In a resident that has an average of 10 cows, the
income per capita of Indonesian people is Rp
700.000, -, the amount of female applicants in
the department of Mechanical Engineering
Increased by 200%.
If the information above is provided statistical
information such as how many median, mode,
and standard deviation or recipient information
will certainly help contribute thinking. Consider
the information about average, especially when
the average supposedly significantly differs
from the median, or standard deviation is quite
large, we should think more information about
the data. Sometimes we receive information
from the average is enough to give a broad
overview. For example, the Data of a senior
high school graduates on average 7.0, while
others have a high school average is 4.5. From
this information people are able to give an idea
of the quality of teaching, quality of teachers,
the number of graduation, and so on.
From the above information it was a lie? we
cannot
blame his statistical presentation.
Statistical calculations were performed by
providing the information is correct. Mr. Ward
calculate the average, study mechanical
engineering has calculated the percentage, the
company calculates the number of shareholders
do not deviate from the definition. It's time to
think carefully, accurately capturing the
information must not only be accepted
unilaterally, if Necessary in doing investigation
further.
How do we know, or who knows?
The conclusions of 7 out of 10 Indonesian
women wear pads Brand X, or use soy sauce B,
or 2 of the 3 men cheating in Jakarta, student
enrolment in the department of mechanical
engineering education Increased by 200%. How
Conclusions may be drawn or who knows when
the sample was taken less representative. For
example, a firm decision the data by sending
questionnaires to 1.200 large companies to ask
hoarding stocks so that they can raise prices. Of
these, only 14% turned out to companies that
want to answer. There are 86% companies, that
they will not tell to the public whether they are
hoarding goods or raising prices. The researcher
considers as if the data obtained no problem / is
wrong. The reason, of the 1.200 companies
polled nine percent said never to raise prices,
five percent said never, and 86 percent did not
answer. Predictably, the answer would have
been biased sample.
Beware of the evidence taken by the sample
bias, that it is not selected correctly. In this case
we really need to look at the information that we
have received. In terms that the information
have been presented through statistics is true.
There is nothing to wrong, because in fact the
entrance poll of 2/3 questionnaires answered
'yes' is real, the girl students in engineering
education department for last time was one and
now 3 persons. So, this presentation or
information is a lie or not, it depend on the
reader will analyze the information.
4.
Is there something missing?
Informants will not always tell how many cases
are involved in the program. The lack of
complete information was deliberately hidden
when news sources are those who have a
particular interest. A company announces that
the shares are held 1005 people. Every member
has in average 660 shares. After the real
observation turns 2/3 of all shares owned by
only 5 people and 1/3 of shares belongs to the
1.000 members. The same situation happened:
.
Is there anything changed or shifted the
subject matter?
When we examine the statistics information, we
should occur the transition between the raw data
and the conclusions. The winner of a candidate
through a poll rector cannot always predict the
outcome of the vote. Cases of deaths due to
bombing in Bali or the earthquake in
Yogyakarta, between the reported and the real
data sometime is difference quite striking.
Report of the amount of a population,
sometimes is not equal be presented
of
different agencies with significant. We are as
the readers to think, which one is trust. These
differences might be explained through simply
by considering the purposes of the calculation
International Conference on Mathematics, Science, and Education 2015 (ICMSE 2015)
and how to influence people. For example, the
first census was held for the purpose of taxation,
and census from the other institutions for the
purposes of the census for help poverty. In this
case, the informants have shifted the issue with
a view to reducing the public panic or arouse the
people for giving help.
Taxpayers or wealthy families who were asked
to report their wealth certainly they give not as
accurate information. Even though they give
inform their wealth lower than the reality.
Telecom give the announcement about pulse
rates of Rp 150,- per 30 seconds. Why was it
present in the second unit not in minutes? An
advertisement will inform more extreme than
the reality. It is the trick of business. The other
example, The A drug will cure skin diseases
within 1 week (in fact more than 1 week), the
price of a pair shoes is Rp 99,500, - why not as
in integer of Rp 100,000, -. Once again it's time
for the reader to accept of the information, they
should think to make a decisions.
5.
coloration or by adding elements of detractors.
We are as a reader, should be smart to see and
good analyze the information, in order to come
in good condition to accept the massage of the
information.
CONCLUSION
Several person think that statistical
presentation has a massage about lie. In fact
statistical presentation is not wrong. But we can
make the statistical presentation
through
manipulate about the scale, or organize the
coloration, or by adding elements of detractors.
Through
showing
the
manipulation
of
presentation the reader can come to think about
lie. In this case the reader should analyze whether
the information is a lie or the truth. they will be
encouraged to think critically and creatively that
the statistical presentation is not a lie, but it is
part of trick to convince the audiences.
REFERENCES
Does it make sense that or is there a
manipulated?
The question "is it reasonable?" Sometimes
Unmasked Often when all information received
under the Assumption that fragile. As an
example of a university at the time of the
visitation in the context of accreditation, said the
number of students who held 400 people, but the
next time interval obtained information that the
college was inaugurated in 1000 for the
academic year 2004/2005. Someone who is
clear in the public, that he was obviously
corrupt, but he was acquitted by the judge.
There are grants competition that be provided by
the government for 20 billion for each
university. Through the evaluation of the
proposal, there is nothing success in fund. An
advertisement impression of the kids program,
many children was playing in the mud, but in
the second time their cloths were cleaned with
soap A like the original colour. Here's some
information that invites the showers think in
wisely.
Presenting the diagram on the previous page
impressions about the vagueness base, be
careful with the curves, that the diagram is not
wrong. But there is a manipulation in
presentation through manipulate in scale or in
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University of California.
Huff, D. How to Lie with Statistics. WW.
Norton & Company Inc.
Kamil, AA. 2002. Ilmu Matematika dan
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www.pikiranrakyat.com.
King, G. 2009. How not to Lie with Statistics
(Work shop). Indianapolis, IN.
Kraemer, W. 1994a. So Luegt Man mit dem
Statistik. Frankfurt/Main: Campus Verlag.
Kraemer, W. 1994b. So Ueberzeugt man mit
Statistik. Frankfurt/Main: Campus Verlag.
Kraemer, W. 1998. Statistik Verstehen.
Frankfurt/Main: Campus Verlag.
Kurikulum 2004 SMA. 2003. Pedoman Khusus
Mata Pelajaran Matematika. Depdiknas.
Jakarta.
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International Conference on Mathematics, Science, and Education 2015 (ICMSE 2015)
Rumsey, D. 2011. Statistics for Dummeris.
John Wiley & Son.
Sembiring, R.K. 1989. Analisis Regresi. ITB.
Soetikno, J dan Udiani, CM. 2002. Berbohong dengan
Statistik (Alih bahasa). Jakarta: KP Gramedia.
Sukestiyarno.
2002.
Mengefektifkan
Pembelajaran Teori Peluang Dan
Statistika Dasar Dengan Memerankan
Media Untuk Tingkat Dasar Dan
Memerankan Problem Posing Dan Tugas
Terstruktur Untuk Tingkat Menengah Dan
Perguruan Tinggi. Laporan Penelitian
Due Like UNNES.
Sukestiyarno, 2005, Penerapan Strategi
Pembelajaran Berbasis Media dan
Permainan Simulasi dalam Mengajarkan
Materi Matematika Sekolah sebagai
Implementasi KBK, Lamporan Penelitian
Due Like UNNES.
.