National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
I.
OVERVIEW
International Economic Developments and their Impact on the
Ethiopian Economy
The resurgence of the world economy remains fragile. The information that has become
available over the past few months confirms that there has been a gradual pick-up in
global activity. In the third quarter, global activity was temporarily supported by
improving global financial conditions, which have nevertheless deteriorated in recent
weeks amid concerns about certain euro area economies. The weakness in the labor and
housing markets in major advanced economies as well as the need to repair balance
sheets are likely to continue to act as an impediment to the pace of growth in the global
economy. While a rebalancing of private sector indebtedness is progressing, the debt
levels of households remain elevated in a number of major advanced economies. In
emerging economies, while growth has been moderating somewhat on account of past
policy tightening and weaker internal and external demand, it remains solid overall,
thereby contributing significantly to global economic growth.
Consistent with global activity, world trade picked up modestly in the third quarter of
2011/12 F.Y. World trade in goods increased by 1.6% in the first quarter (quarter on
quarter), after stalling in the second quarter of 2011/12 F.Y. This recovery was supported
by fairly lighthearted growth in major emerging market regions, partly reflecting a
normalization of supply-chain linkages, which were disrupted following the floods in
Thailand.
In the United States, the expansion in economic activity is proceeding at a moderate pace.
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.9% (0.5% quarter on quarter) in the first
quarter of 2012, down from 3% in the previous quarter. Growth in the first quarter was
primarily supported by personal consumption expenditures, which were in part financed
via a drawdown of the personal saving rate, given subdued income growth.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
In Japan, real GDP growth expanded by 1% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of
2011/12 F.Y., after stagnating in the previous quarter. The main contributions to growth
came from private consumption and public spending, together with changes in private
inventories. Private consumption increased by 1.1%, partly reflecting the reintroduction
of government incentives to purchase environmentally-friendly cars as well as pent-up
demand, while the strength in public spending mainly reflected robust growth in public
investment, confirming that reconstruction-related public spending is picking up.
In the United Kingdom, Real GDP declined by 0.3% quarter on quarter in the third
quarter of 2011/12 F.Y., with both investment and household consumption making a
negative contribution to growth. The labour market situation has shown signs of
stabilization, but the unemployment rate is still relatively high (8.2% on average in the
three months to March) and employment growth has been subdued.
Looking ahead, the economic recovery is likely to gather pace only gradually, as
domestic demand is expected to remain constrained by tight credit conditions, ongoing
household balance sheet adjustments and substantial fiscal tightening.
In emerging Asia, economic activity slowed in the third quarter of 2011/12 F.Y., led by
weakening exports and investment. Export growth moderated in the first quarter, mainly
reflecting sluggish demand from Europe, while investment remained weak as a result of a
heightened volatility of capital flows and the lagged effects of a tightening of domestic
monetary policies. Nonetheless, the adverse impact from the global headwinds was partly
offset by resilient consumption.
In China, real GDP growth decelerated to 8.1% year on year in the first quarter of 2012,
down from 8.9% in the second quarter of 2011/12 F.Y. External conditions remained
weak, mainly on account of sluggish demand from the euro area. Accordingly, export
growth fell to 8.9% year on year in the first quarter and to 4.9% year on year by endApril.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
The external sector of Ethiopia depicted slow down during the review period largely in
response of the global development in particular to the economic activities of advanced
countries to which the Ethiopia economy is relatively integrated in terms of trade and
investments. Accordingly, total merchandise export proceeds rose only by 7.7 percent
year-on-year in the third quarter of 2011/12 (38.1 percent quarter-to-quarter) despite
lower volume of major export products. In particular, total receipts from service exports
mainly from travelers and individual cash remittances via the banking system contracted
during the same period.
On the other hand, the rise in international oil price relative to last year same period
accounted largely for strong growth of total fuel import bills which utilized more than
two-third of the total export revenue earned during the same period while the global
developments importantly exerted a pressure on balance of payments development.
Macroeconomic Developments in Ethiopia
Inflation
During the third quarter of 2011/12 fiscal year, national general inflation increased to 5.2
percent from 4.6 percent in the second quarter on account of 1.0 and 0.3 percentage point
surge in core and food inflation, but slowed down from 8.9 percent in the same quarter of
last fiscal year. Quarterly food inflation increased to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent during
the previous quarter while non-food inflation picked up to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent in
the second quarter. Food inflation contributed 3.2 percent of the quarterly inflation and
non-food 2.0 percent.
Fuel prices
Average international price of the crude oil was USD 103.04 per barrel, 11.7 percent
down compared to the previous quarter. However, Addis Ababa average retail price of
fuel remained at Birr 17.7 per liter during the quarter.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Monetary Developments
The stock of broad money supply (M2), measure of monetary aggregate in Ethiopia,
reached Birr 171.5 billion at the close of the third quarter of 2011/12 revealing 10.0 and
31.6 percent quarterly and annual expansion, respectively. Net foreign asset was Birr 45.8
billion at the end of the review quarter, indicating 7.2 percent slowdown on annual basis
but slightly increased by 0.3 percent vis-à-vis the previous quarter. On the contrary, net
domestic credit, showed 16.3 and 120.2 percent growth over the stock at end of
December 2011 and end of the review quarter to reach Birr 170.7 billion. Therefore, the
10 percent surge in broad money supply on quarterly basis was on account of an increase
in net domestic credit; counter balancing the decline in net foreign asset. Annual increase
in broad money supply on the other hand, was due to the surge in both net domestic credit
and net foreign assets.
Base money/high powered money declined by 1.7 percent on annual basis to Birr 62.6
billion at the end of the quarter under review. Currency in circulation rose 19.4 percent
compared to last fiscal year same quarter, Commercial banks’ reserve at NBE scaled
down by 31.7 percent vis-à-vis the same quarter last year. Therefore, the slowdown in
reserve money both on annual and quarterly basis was due to the decline in banks’
reserve at NBE despite an increase in currency in circulation. The money multiplier1,
measured by the ratio of broad money to reserve money or the inverse ratio of reserve
requirement, increased from 2.0 percent at the end of March 2011 to 2.7 percent in the
current quarter showing improvement in monetization process reflecting the positive role
of the banking sector in financial development.
The ratio of commercial bank’s money to central bank’s money under a fractional reserve banking system,
it measures the maximum amount of commercial bank’s money that can be created by a given unit of
central bank’s money.
1
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Interest Rate
Setting the minimum savings and time deposit interest rate is one of the direct monetary
policies of the NBE leaving lending rate to commercial banks. Accordingly, minimum
saving deposit rate was raised from 4.0 percent to 5.0 percent effective December 1,
2010. As a result, all banks operating in the country have adjusted their deposit and
lending rates thereof. Hence, the minimum and maximum saving deposit rates at the end
of the quarter under review were 5.0 and 5.75 percent, respectively whereas the minimum
and maximum lending rates stood at 7.5 and 16.25 percent showing no change over the
previous quarter and last year same quarter. Considering 32.5 percent annual headline
inflation in March 2012, average saving deposit rate (5.4 percent) and average lending
rate (11.9 percent) were negative in real terms.
Financial Sector Developments
The number of commercial banks (including DBE) remained 17 at the end of March
2012. In the review quarter, 55 new bank branches were opened, thereby increasing the
total number of bank branches to 1,181 (33.9 percent located in Addis Ababa) at the close
of March 2012. Consequently, the ratio of total bank branch to total population has
decreased to 67,739.2 from 71,048 in the preceding quarter, revealing a continuous
development in financial service outreach in the country.
The number of insurance companies in the country reached 15 of which where 14 were
privately owned companies. Their branches also increased to 232. Similarly the total
number of MFIs remained at 31 during the quarter.
The total capital of the banking system reached Birr 17.5 billion at the close of December
2011, of which private banks together owned about 48 percent. Commercial Bank of
Ethiopia, the giant state owned commercial bank, accounted for 35.6 percent of the total
capital of the banking system.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Total resources mobilized by the banking system surged 25.7 percent on annual basis to
Birr 25.6 billion at the end of the third quarter due to higher net deposit and loans
collection by 65.4.
New loans disbursement by commercial banks including DBE, was Birr 14.6 billion,
witnessing a 58.5 percent surge of vis-à-vis the same quarter of last year. Public banks
disbursed Birr 10.9 billion (74.7 percent) while the balance of Birr 3.7 billion (25.3
percent) was taken up by private banks. About 96.9 percent of the new loans disbursed
by private banks went to finance private enterprises.
In the review quarter, the banking industry collected loans to the tune of Birr 7.1 billion,
which was 8.3 percent higher than the same quarter of last fiscal year. Of the total loan
collection,
private banks collected Birr 4.2 billion (89.2 percent) while public banks
collected the remaining balance.
Total outstanding credit of the banking system (excluding interbank lending credit to the
central government and bond sold by CBE) reached Birr 103.1 billion showing 15.4
percent increase over last year same quarter.
Total deposits mobilized by the banking system reached Birr 174.9 billion at the close of
the third quarter of 2011/12, revealing annual increase of 35.0 percent. The growth in
deposit mobilization was partly attributed to bank branch expansion and improvements in
economic activities and income.
Similarly, MFIs mobilized a total of saving deposit of Birr 4.9 billion, which was 45.5
percent higher than the amount mobilized last year same quarter.
External Sector and Foreign Exchange Developments
Export earnings from merchandise goods increased by 38.1 percent over the last fiscal
year, and amounted to USD 821.0 million in the third quarter of 2011/12 fiscal year. The
annual growth of total exports was largely attributed to higher export earnings from live
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
animals, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, gold and flowers export revenue from leather &
leather products and coffee tended to decline.
Meanwhile, total merchandise import bills during the review quarter was USD 3.1
billion, depicting 52 percent surge over last year same period as all of its components
tended to show higher bill.
The services account recorded USD 54.0 million in net receipts against USD 230.0 million
net receipts last year same period. The decline in net service receipts was largely due to
higher payments for travel, transportation and communication at construction services.
The current account balance (including official transfers) registered USD 951 million deficits
during the third quarter of 2011/12 compared to a surplus of USD 68.3 million last year same
period owing to widening trade deficit, net service payments and a significant reduction in
official transfers.
In the review quarter, the average official exchange rate of the Birr weakened by 1 and 4.1
percent with respect to the previous quarter and last year same period, respectively, to reach
Birr 17.3107/USD. Meanwhile, the parallel average exchange rate stood at Birr 18.24/USD,
illustrating a 2.3 and 6.6 percent depreciation on quarter-to-quarter and annualized basis
respectively. As a result, the average premium between the official and parallel market rates
widened to 5.4 percent from 4.0 and 2.8 percent the preceding quarter and last year same
quarter, respectively.
Federal Government Fiscal Operations
Total revenue and grant mobilized by the Federal Government was Birr 21.5 billion. Year-onyear basis, it scaled up by 24.0 percent. The quarterly revenue and grant performance was 29.3
percent of the annual plan of fiscal year 2011/12.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Total Federal Government expenditures (including regional transfers) was Birr 26.3 billion,
revealing annual surge of 31.8 percent and marginal decline of 0.16 percent quarter-onquarter.
The Federal Government budget (including grant) depicted an overall deficit of Birr 4.8
billion, higher than Birr 3.3 billion deficit last year same period. The quarterly deficit was
remarkably higher relative to the deficit a year earlier, due to higher growth in expenditure
which
counterbalanced
the
surge
in
quarterly
revenue
and
grant
collection.
Investment
The Ethiopian Investment Agency (EIA) and the Regional Investment Offices licensed a
total of 1,065 investment projects with an aggregate capital of Birr 32 billion during the
second quarter of 2011/12. The number of approved investment projects was 25 percent
higher compared to same quarter of last fiscal year. Similarly, the total registered capital
of these projects grew by 164 percent annually.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
II. ENERGY PRODUCTION AND PROCESSING
2.1. Imported Petroleum Products
A total of 538,969.7 metric tons (MT) of
petroleum
products
import
was
petroleum products were imported into
attributed to surge in imports of gas oil,
the country during the third quarter of
(which constituted 62.76 percent share
2011/12. The amount was 39.8 percent
of total petroleum import), Jet fuel and
higher than last year same period but 2.4
MGR.
percent lower than the preceding quarter.
showed an annual decline (Table 2.1).
Imports of fuel oil, however,
The yearly growth in the volume of
Table 2.1: Volume of Petroleum Products Imported (In Metric Tons)
2010/11
Percentage
Change
2011/12
Qtr III
Qtr II
A
Share
In %
Regular
Gasoline
(MGR)
32,966.8
Jet Fuel
Qtr III
B
Share
In %
C
Share
In %
C/A
C/B
8.5
41,496.3
7.5
40,160.9
7.45
21.8
-3.2
101,025.1
26.2
129,614.7
23.5
144,199.0
26.75
42.7
11.3
Fuel Oil
58,800.1
15.2
46,905.1
8.5
16,360.2
3.04
-72.2
-65.1
Gas Oil (ADO)
192,791.9
50
334,320.7
60.5
338,249.5
62.76
75.4
1.2
Total
385,583.9
Source: Ethiopian Petroleum
Enterprises
100
Third quarter 2011/12
552,336.8
100.0
538,969.7
100
39.8
-2.4
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprises
by 64.6 percent as compared to a year
Meanwhile, the total value of petroleum
ago and declined by 3.9 percent in
products imported during the period
contrast to the preceding quarter.
under review reached Birr 9.5 billion, up
(Table2.2)
Table 2.2. Value of Petroleum Products Imported (In '000 Birr)
2010/11
Qtr III
2011/12
Qtr II
Percentage
Change
Qtr III
A
Share
In %
B
Share
In %
C
Share
In %
C/A
C/B
468,167.9
8.1
665,812.1
6.7
724,016.6
7.6
54.6
8.7
Jet Fuel
2,078,046.8
36.1
2,354,685.1
23.9
2,663,382.2
28.1
28.2
13.1
Fuel Oil
335,461.2
5.8
542,193.0
5.5
219,613.7
2.3
-34.5
-59.5
2,881,675.9
50
6,308,620.3
63.9
5,880,673.1
62.0
104.1
-6.8
Total
5,763,351.7
100
9,871,310.5
Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprises
100.0
9,487,685.6
100
64.6
-3.9
Regular Gasoline
(MGR)
Gas Oil (ADO)
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprises
The annual increase in the value of
On average, the FOB prices of petroleum
petroleum imports was on account of fuel
products went up to USD 949.3/MT showing
rise in volume imports of products, except
14.9 percent increase on annual and 8.8
in FOB prices of all petroleum products
percent. This was owing to the rise in the
coupled.
prices of all petroleum products. (Table 2.3)
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Table 2.3: FOB Price of Petroleum Products Imported
(USD/MT)
2010/11
2011/12
Qtr III
Qtr II
Qtr III
A
B
C
C/A
C/B
Regular Gasoline (MGR)
923.2
951.7
1077.4
16.7
13.2
Jet Fuel
938.6
972.5
1027.9
9.5
5.7
Fuel Oil
582.3
658.6
717.9
23.3
9.0
Gas Oil (ADO)
862.0
908.2
974.0
13.0
7.2
Average
826.5
872.8
949.3
14.9
8.8
Petroleum Products
Percentage Change
Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise
Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Similarly, the price of crude oil in the
rose by 19.2 percent to Birr 17.8/Liter in
international market continued to increase
contrast to a year ago. The average retail
and reached USD 102.98 per barrel in the
price was also 2.8 percent higher than a
period under review.
quarter earlier (Table 2.4).
Domestic fuel prices were adjusted by the
government accordingly and, as a result, the
average retail prices of fuel in Addis Ababa
Table 2.4: Addis Ababa Average Retail Prices of Fuel
(Birr/Liter)
2010/11
2011/12
Qtr III
Qtr II
Qtr III
A
B
C
C/A
C/B
Regular Gasoline (MGR)
17.1
19.8
20.4
19.2
3.1
Fuel Oil
13.0
14.8
15.3
17.6
2.9
Gas Oil (ADO)
14.8
17.3
17.9
21.3
3.6
Kerosene
12.9
14.0
14.0
7.9
0.0
Jet
16.7
20.5
21.3
27.5
3.7
Average
14.9
Source: Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprise
17.3
17.8
19.2
2.8
Petroleum Products
Third quarter 2011/12
Percentage Change
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Source Ethiopian Petroleum Enterprises
2.2. Electric Power Generation
Total electricity generated during the third
Wind energy accounted for 0.7 percent of
quarter has increased to 1.58 billion KWH
the total electricity during the period. On
from 1.54 billion KWH in the preceding
the other hand, electricity generated from
quarter and 1.3 billion KWH a year ago
thermal and geothermal sources slowed
(Table 2.5).
down to 1.3 billion KWH and 3.1 billion
KWH relative to a year ago.
This was mainly attributed to increased
hydropower promotion, which constituted
In terms of system generation, about 99.9
99.0 percent of the total power supply in
percent of the electricity generated during
the period.
Electricity generated from
the third quarter of 2011/12 was from the
wind, which was nonexistent during
interconnected system (ICS) while the
previous periods, was 11 million KWH.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
remaining 0.1 percent was ascribed to self
contained system (SCS) (Table 2.6).
Following the rise in demand associated
with country’s economic growth, supply
of electricity is expected to increase.
Consequently, the country’s electricity
generation capacity under the five year
Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) is
projected to reach 8,000 MW by 2015
from 2000 MW in 2010. This is due to the
construction
of
new
power
stations
including Great Renaissance Dam Project
and wind energy.
Accordingly, electric
power access coverage is expected to
reach 75% of the population by end 2015
from 41 percent in 2010.
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Table 2.5: Electricity Generation
Power
Source
2010/11
Qtr III
2011/12
A
Share
In %
1,255,487.2
Thermal
Power
Geothermal
Hydropower
Wind
Total
Qtr II
B
Share
In %
99.3
1,544,635.5
2917.8
0.2
5,335.1
1,263,740
Qtr III
Percentage
Change
C
Share
In %
C/A
C/B
99.9
1,559,453.84
99.0
24.21
0.96
1,600.8
0.1
1,343.1
0.09
-53.97
-16.1
0.4
192.7
0.01
3,119.7
0.2
-41.5
1,519.01
-
-
-
11,162
0.7
100.0
100
100
24.6
100
1,546,429.0
100
1,575,079
1.9
('000 of K.W.H)
Source: Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO)
Table 2.6: Generation of Electricity Power in the Interconnected System (ICS) and Self
Contained System (SCS)
('000 of K.W.H)
2010/11
System of Power
Supply
2011/12
Qtr III
Qtr III
Qtr II
Share In
B
%
A
Share
In %
1,255,210.9
99.3
1,544,255.7
205.0
0.0
Geothermal
wind
5,335.1
-
Sub-Total
Percentage
Change
C
Share
In %
C/A
C/B
99.9
1,559,174.2
98.9
24.2
0.9
0
0
0
0
-100
0
0.4
-
192.7
-
0.01
-
3,119.68
11,162
0.1
0.7
-41.5
100
1,519.01
100
1,260,751.0
99.8
1,544,448.4
99.9
1,573,455.9
99.9
24.8
1.9
276.3
0.0
379.7
0.02
279.7
0.02
1.2
-26.3
2,712.8
0.2
1,600.8
0.1
1,343.1
0.09
-50.5
-16.09
2,989.0
0.2
1,980.6
0.1
1,622.8
0.1
-45.7
-18.06
157,5079
100
ICS
Hydro Power
Thermal Power
SCS
Hydro Power
Thermal Power
Geothermal
Sub-Total
Grand Total
1,263,740
100
1,546,429
100
Source: Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO)
Third quarter 2011/12
24.6
1.85
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Source: Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCo)
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
III. QUARTERLY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS
3.1. Developments in National CPI
During the third quarter of 2011/12 fiscal
items, such as meat, milk, cheese and egg,
year, headline inflation rose to 5.2 percent
vegetables and fruits, coffee (bean, whole)
from 4.6 percent in the previous quarter
and tea leaves, despite fall in other food
on account of 0.3 and 1 percentage point
items (Table 3.2).
increase in food and non food (core
inflation) respectively.
Likewise, on-food inflation rate increased
to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent during the
On the other hand, compared to last year
previous quarter. The quarterly rises in the
same quarter, inflation slowed down by
inflation rates of cigarettes and tobacco;
3.7 percentage points owing to decline
house rent, construction materials, water,
both in food and non food inflation by 4.6
and fuel and electric power; furniture,
and 2.4 percentage points respectively
household
(Table 3.1). Food inflation contributed 3.2
transport and communication attributed to
percent to headline inflation of the review
the recorded upsurge (Table 3.3).
equipment
and
operation;
quarter while non-food contributed 2.1
percent (Table 3.1).
On quarterly basis, food inflation slightly
rose to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent due to
an increase in the CPI rate of most food
Third quarter 2011/12
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Table 3.1: Quarterly National General Consumer Prices (%)
2010/11
QIII
2011/12
QII
QIII
Weights
A
B
Headline
100
8.9
4.6
Food
57
9.7
4.8
NonFood
43
7.8
4.5
Source: CSA and NBE Staff Computation
Third quarter 2011/12
C
Change in %age
Points
C-A
C-B
5.2
5.1
-3.7
-4.6
0.6
0.3
5.5
-2.4
1.0
Contribution to
QIII
headline
headline
inflation over
inflation
QII
5.2
0.6
3.2
0.2
2.1
0.4
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National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Table 3.2: Quarterly National Food Consumer Prices (%)
tem
Food as a
whole
Cereals
Weights
2010/11
2011/12
QIII
QII
QIII
Change in
%age
points
A
B
C
C-A
57.0
22.5
9.7
7.7
4.8
4.4
5.1
1.5
Pulses
Bread and
other
prepared food
items
Meat
Milk, cheese
and egg
4.31
11.3
4.5
1.87
2.82
2.8
-8.4
1.96
Fats and oils
Vegetables
and fruits
Spices
Potatoes,
other tubers
and stems
Coffee (bean,
whole) and
tea leaves
Other food
items
Milling
charge
Food taken
away from
home
C-B
Contribution to
QIII
Change in Food
Food
Inflation over QII
Inflation
0.3
-3.0
5.1
0.5
0.3
-1.1
0.1
-4.6
-6.2
11.1
-4.4
0.0
-0.4
8.6
8.6
5.3
11.3
2.5
19.7
-3.3
2.8
0.2
0.5
-0.1
0.1
9.1
2.9
13.5
10.6
0.4
0.3
2.39
9.9
-4.6
-8.3
4.4
18.2
-3.7
-0.4
-0.1
2.55
13.7
6.1
52.0
1.9
4.2
0.3
-10.8
45.8
11.1
2.1
1.98
38.3
15.0
-0.6
-0.7
4.16
15.9
11.4
8.7
-7.2
-2.6
0.7
-0.1
4.27
34.3
5.8
8.9
25.3
3.2
0.9
0.3
1.23
-2.8
4.6
-0.2
2.6
-4.8
0.0
-0.1
1.17
0.2
0.9
11.8
11.6
10.9
0.2
0.1
5.76
3.6
5.7
6.6
3.0
0.9
0.6
0.1
Source: CSA and NBE staff Compilation
Third quarter 2011/12
19
National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Table 3.3: Quarterly National Non-food Consumer Prices (%)
2010/11
QIII
2011/12
QII
QIII
Item
Weights
A
B
7.8
4.5
Non-Food
43.0
Beverages
2.0
3.6
7.1
Cigarettes
and Tobacco
0.5
4.1
-4.2
Clothing and
Footwear
8.3
10.1
8.9
House Rent,
Construction
Materials,
Water, and
Fuel and
Electric
Power
20.6
8.2
2.1
Furniture,
Household
Equipment
and Operation
3.8
4.9
5.4
Medical Care
and Health
1.1
2.6
2.8
Transport and
Communicati
on
2.5
13.3
-2.3
Recreation,
Entertainment
and
Education
1.1
2.7
5.8
Personal Care
and Effects
0.8
9.3
7.3
Miscellaneou
s Goods
2.3
1.9
7.4
Source: CSA and NBE Staff Computation
C
Change in
%age points
Contribution to
QIII Non- Change in NonFood
Food Inflation
Inflation
over QIV
5.5
1.0
0.4
0.0
5.5
6.6
C-A
-2.4
3.0
C-B
1.2
-2.9
5.4
0.0
0.1
8.2
-1.8
-0.7
2.1
-0.1
4.5
-3.8
2.4
1.9
1.0
7.7
2.8
2.3
0.8
0.2
1.7
-0.9
-1.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
13.0
2.7
0.0
0.1
3.6
0.8
-2.2
0.1
0.0
5.1
-4.1
-2.2
0.1
-0.1
1.0
-0.9
-6.5
0.0
-0.2
1.0
-0.5
3.2. Developments in Regional CPI
During the third quarter of 2011/12,
have recorded quarterly headline inflation
regional average general inflation was 3.9
above
percent, lower than 4.4 and 6.9 percent in
inflation.
the previous quarter and same quarter last
year, respectively. Regional states such as
SNNP, Oromia, Tigray and Gambela,
Third quarter 2011/12
the
regional
simple
average
During the review period, most of
regional states have experienced a slow
down in headline inflation, except SNNP,
20
National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Oromia and Dire Dawa. The highest
Gumuz (-2.6 percent) indicating 9.6
quarterly headline inflation was registered
percentage point margin in the rate of
in Oromia (5.9 percent) and the minimum
food
(2.4 percent) in Somali. This indicated a
dispersion from the regional mean in food
3.5 percentage point margin in the rates of
inflation measured by standard deviation
inflation among regions, which was lower
was 2.3 percent.
than the previous quarter margin of 6.9
percentage point.
The deviation in the
regional headline inflation rates from the
average
as
represented
by
standard
deviation was 1.2 percentage points
(Table 3.4).
inflation
among
regions;
the
On the other hand, the average regional
non-food inflation rose to 4.4 percent
from 3.2 percent in the previous quarter
while dropping compared to the 6.0
percent a year ago.
Higher non-food
inflation other than the regional average
The regional average food inflation
has been observed in SNNP, Oromia,
dropped to 3.5 percent from 5.3 and 7.5
Tigray, Benshangul Gumuz and Amhara
percent in the previous quarter and same
regional states. The highest average non-
quarter last fiscal year, respectively.
food inflation of 12.6 percent was
Quarterly food inflation higher than the
recorded in Benshangul Gumuz and the
quarterly regional average was registered
lowest (0.7 percent) in Harari. The
in SNNP, Harari, Oromia, Tigray and
variation in non-food inflation measured
Gambella regional states. The highest
by the standard deviation was 3.4 percent
food inflation was observed in Gambella
(Table 3.4).
(7.0 percent) and the lowest in Ben.
Third quarter 2011/12
21
National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Table 3.4: Annualized Regional General, Food and Non-Food Inflation
2010/11
QIII
A
Regions
SNNP
Harari
Oromia
Tigray
Gambella
Addis
Ababa
Dire Dawa
Ben. Gum
Somali
Afar
Amhara
Regions
Average
Standard
deviation
Coefficient
of
variation2
2011/2012
QII
B
12.5
7.8
10.2
4.3
4.6
Food
16.8
9.9
11.5
3.1
4.3
Nonfood
7.3
5.1
8.2
5.9
4.9
4.3
4.6
7.7
6.4
7.5
6.0
6.9
0.2
5.0
12.2
7.4
6.9
5.0
7.5
2.6
4.8
0.4
General
2
QIII
C
0.2
3.9
4.9
5.0
7.1
Food
2.6
4.5
4.7
3.6
9.5
Nonfood
-3.4
3.0
5.2
7.2
2.9
5.7
2.7
5.9
4.4
4.9
Food
5.4
4.1
5.7
3.7
7.0
Nonfood
6.1
0.7
6.1
5.6
1.0
7.6
4.0
2.4
4.3
8.4
7.9
6.0
5.3
2.3
6.7
4.5
4.1
5.1
4.4
6.8
2.3
7.9
3.2
7.0
5.9
5.3
4.0
2.3
4.5
7.3
0.0
3.5
3.2
3.7
2.9
3.0
2.4
3.6
3.8
3.9
2.1
3.2
-2.0
2.9
3.2
2.9
3.5
3.2
2.3
12.6
1.4
4.3
5.5
4.4
2.0
1.9
2.3
3.0
1.2
2.3
3.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.9
0.3
Source: CSA and NBE Staff Computation
0.7
0.8
General
General
Annual Change
D=C-A
NonGeneral Food food
-6.9
-11.4 -1.2
-5.1
-5.8
-4.4
-4.3
-5.8
-2.1
0.2
0.6
-0.4
0.3
2.7
-3.9
-0.6
-1.7
-4.7
-4.0
-3.9
-2.3
1.9
-1.8
-14.2
-4.5
-3.7
-2.0
-4.4
-1.7
10.2
-2.9
-4.1
-2.4
Quarterly Change
D=C-B
NonGeneral Food food
5.5
2.8
9.5
-1.2
-0.4
-2.4
0.9
0.9
1.0
-0.6
0.1
-1.7
-2.1
-2.4
-1.9
-0.5
0.5
-3.8
-1.8
-0.6
-1.3
The ratio of standard deviation to regional average
Third quarter 2011/12
22
-4.7
0.9
-9.9
-0.3
-3.8
-2.9
-0.8
0.0
7.9
-5.0
4.3
2.0
National Bank of Ethiopia
IV. MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
4.1. Money Supply and Credit
Broad money supply (M2) reached Birr 171.5
On the other hand, claims on central
billion at the end of the third quarter of the
government went down by 33.5 percent.
fiscal year 2011/12, revealing annual growth
Meanwhile, net foreign assets went up by 0.3
rate of 31.6 percent. This was due to higher
percent to reach Birr 45.8 billion at the end of
domestic credit, which expanded by 40.8
the review quarter (Table 4.1).
percent, mainly spurred by 58.8 percent
increase in credit to non- government sector.
Table 4.1: Factors Influencing Broad Money (In Millions of Birr)
2010/11
Qtr. III
(Mar. 11)
A
Particulars
1. External Assets (net)
45,638.1
2. Domestic Credit
121,221.7
. Claims on Central Gov't
(net)
23,583.8
. Claims on Non-Central
Gov't
97,638.0
. Financial Institutions
0.0
. Others
97,638.0
3. Other Items (net)
36,550.1
4. Broad Money (M2)
130,309.8
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia
Third quarter 2011/12
Percentage
Change
Contributions of
each Component to
Broad Money
Growth
C/A
Annual
2011/12
Qtr. II
(Dec. 11)
B
Qtr. III
(Mar. 12)
C
C/B
Quarterly
49,345.6
45,771.8
0.29
-7.24
0.32
-22.90
146,828.0
170,731.8
40.84
16.28
120.19
153.17
13,443.6
15,673.9
-33.54
16.59
-19.20
14.29
133,384.4
155,057.9
58.81
16.25
139.39
138.88
10,070.0
11,870.0
-
17.87
28.81
11.53
123,314.4
143,187.9
46.65
16.12
110.57
127.35
40,275.4
44,999.4
23.12
11.73
-20.51
-30.27
155,898.2
171,504.3
31.61
10.01
100.00
100.00
24
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia
Third quarter 2011/12
25
National Bank of Ethiopia
Fig IV.2: Composition of Domestic Credit
(Quarterly Change in Percent)
30.0
20.0
In percent
10.0
0.0
-10.0
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
Credit to Central Government
Domestic Credit
Credit to Non-Central Government
Source: National Bank Ethiopia
The third quarter of the fiscal year 2011/12
and 53.2 percent share to the annual broad
also witnessed annual rise in all components
money growth rate (Table 4.2).
of broad money. Narrow money, which
comprises currency outside banks and net
demand deposits, expanded by 29.3 percent
on annual basis. Similarly, quasi-money that
embraces both saving and time deposits
depicted an annual increment of 33.9
percent. Year-on-year basis, both narrow
money and quasi-money contributed 46.8
The rise in currency outside banks reflects
the continuous rise in income and public
preference to hold cash. Similarly, the surge
in quasi-money indicates the result of a
successful effort made by both public and
private banks in expanding their branch
network
to
augment
their
Mobilization and improve their service
outreach.
Third quarter 2011/12
deposit
26
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.2: Components of Broad Money (In Millions of Birr)
2010/11
Particulars
Qtr. III
(Mar. 11)
A
Qtr. III
(Mar. 12)
C
Percentage
Change
Contributions of
each Component to
Broad Money
Growth
C/A
C/B
Annual
Quarterly
2011/12
Qtr. II
(Dec. 11)
B
1. Narrow Money Supply
65,706.7
79,154.6
84,974.1
29.3
7.35
46.77
37.29
. Currency outside banks
30,534.7
36,274.6
37,727.7
23.56
4.01
17.46
9.31
. Demand Deposits (net)
35,172.0
42,880.0
47,246.4
34.33
10.18
29.31
27.98
64,603.1
76,743.7
86,530.1
33.94
12.75
53.23
62.71
60,140.4
71,578.4
76,393.8
27.03
6.73
39.46
30.86
4,462.7
5,165.3
10,136.4
127.14
96.24
13.77
31.85
130,309.8
155,898.2
171,504.3
31.61
10.01
100.00
100.00
2. Quasi-Money
. Savings Deposits
. Time Deposits
3. Broad Money Supply
Source: NBE
Third quarter 2011/12
27
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source: NBE
4.2. Developments in Reserve Money and Monetary Ratio
commercial banks in the weekly T- bills
Reserve money reached Birr 62.6 billion at
market.
the end of the third quarter of the fiscal year
2011/12, depicting a 1.7 percent slow down
The money multiplier measured by the ratio
over last year same quarter mainly due to the
of broad money to reserve money, grew by
fall in banks deposits at NBE3. Excess
33.8 percent on annual terms implying the
reserves of commercial banks also declined
increased monetization of the economy.
significantly both on annual and quarterly
Besides, the ratio of narrow money to
basis due to enhanced participation of
reserve money increased by 31.5 percent on
annual basis.
3
The decline in bank deposit at the central bank was
mainly explained by the downward revision of
reserve requirement of commercial banks from 15 to
10 percent of net deposit.
Third quarter 2011/12
28
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.3: Reserve Money and Ratios (In millions of Birr)
2010/11
2011/12
Qtr. III
Qtr. II
Qtr. III
(Mar. 11)
(Dec. 11)
(Mar. 12)
A
B
C
Particulars
1.
2.
3.
4.
Reserve Requirement (CB's)
Actual Reserve (CB's)*
Excess Reserve (CB's)
Reserve Money
. Currency in Circulation
. Banks deposits at NBE**
5. Money Multiplier (Ratio):
. Narrow Money to Reserve Money
. Broad Money to Reserve Money
6. Other Monetary Ratios (%):
. Currency to Narrow Money
. Currency to Broad Money
. Narrow Money to Broad Money
. Quasi Money to Broad Money
Source: NBE and Commercial Banks.
Percentage Change
C/A
C/B
18,817.4
23,095.7
16,897.2
-10.2
-26.8
24,560.2
24,380.9
10,669.5
-56.6
-56.2
5,742.8
1,285.2
-6,227.7
-208.4
-584.6
63,633.9
67,786.4
62,580.8
-1.7
-7.7
37,456.7
42,048.1
44,710.6
19.4
6.3
26,177.3
25,738.2
17,870.2
-31.7
-30.6
1.0
1.2
1.4
31.5
16.3
2.0
2.3
2.7
33.8
19.2
46.5
45.8
44.4
-4.5
-3.1
23.4
23.3
22.0
-6.1
-5.5
50.4
50.8
49.5
-1.7
-2.4
49.6
49.2
50.5
1.8
2.5
* The data is obtained from commercial banks balance sheet.
** The data is obtained from NBE balance sheet.
The slowdown in narrow money to broad
transaction purposes in the quarter under
money implies a decline in demand for
review presumably due to lower in
cash
inflation.
and
checkable
Third quarter 2011/12
deposits
for
29
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia
Fig IV.5: Monetary Aggregates
(Third Quarter of 2011/12)
30,000.0
In millions of Birr
25,000.0
20,000.0
15,000.0
Required Reserve
10,000.0
Actual Reserve
Excess Reserve
5,000.0
0.0
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia
Third quarter 2011/12
30
4.3. Interest Rate Developments
Average saving deposit rate and average
bills increased from 1.35 to 2.03 percent.
lending rates remained at 5.4 and 11.88
Yet, considering annual headline inflation
percent respectively both on quarterly and
of 32.5 percent during the quarter under
annual basis. Weighted average time
review, all deposit rates, lending rates and
deposit rate, however, registered annual
T-bills yields were negative in real terms
decline of 5.6 percent. On the other hand,
(Table 4.4).
the yearly weighted average yield on T-
Table 4.4: Interest Rate Structure of Commercial Banks (percent per annum)
2010/11
2011/12
QIII
QII
Percentage Change
QIII
Annual
Quarterly
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1. Savings Deposit Rate
Minimum
5
Maximum
5.75
5.75
5.75
5.4
5.4
5.4
Up to 1yr
5.89
5.26
5.61
-4.7
6.6
1-2 years
6.07
5.41
5.71
-5.9
5.7
Over 2 yrs
6.15
5.47
5.76
-6.3
5.3
Average Saving Rate
5
0.0
0.0
2. Time Deposits
Average Time Dep. Rate (Weighted)
3. Demand Deposit (Weighted)
6.04
5.38
5.70
-5.6
5.9
0.04
0.03
0.03
-28.1
-4.0
4. Lending Rate
Minimum
7.5
7.5
7.5
0.0
0.0
Maximum
16.25
16.25
16.25
0.0
0.0
Average Lending Rate
11.88
11.88
11.88
0.0
0.0
5. T- bills Rate (Weighted Ave.)
1.353
1.53
2.032
50.2
32.8
6. Bond Yield (Simple Average)
3.67
3.67
3.67
0.0
0.0
7. Headline Inflation
25.00
36.00
32.50
30.0
-9.6
8.Food inflation
25.55
46.68
40.90
60.1
-12.4
9. Core Inflation Rate
24.22
21.78
20.40
-15.8
-6.3
Source: National Bank of Ethopia and commercial banks
Third quarter 2011/12
26
Source: NBE and Commercial Banks
Third quarter 2011/12
32
National Bank of Ethiopia
Fig IV.7: Lending Rate, Average Saving Deposit Rate, 91-day T-bills
Yield & Core Inflation Rate
(in percent per annum)
35
30
Value in %
25
20
15
10
0
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
5
Quarters
Av. Saving Dep.Rate
91 day T-bills yield
Lending Rate
Inf lation rate (core)
Source: NBE staff compilation
4.4. Developments in the Financial Sector
Banks,
insurance
and
number of bank branches to 1,181. As a
microfinance institutions are the main
result, the ratio of total bank branch to total
financial institutions in Ethiopia. The
population went down to 67,739.2 from
number of banks operating in the country
71,048 in the preceding quarter, reflecting
reached 17 at the end of March 2012 of
an
which 14 banks were privately owned.
outreach.
During the review quarter, 55 new bank
About 33.9 percent of the total bank
branches were opened, raising the total
branches were located in Addis Ababa
Third quarter 2011/12
companies
improvement
in
financial
service
33
National Bank of Ethiopia
reflecting the concentration of branches in
the capital. Of the total bank branches, the
On the other hand, there were 30 microfinance institutions (MFIs) operating in the
share of private banks increased to 48.6
country.
percent from 47.4 percent in the preceding
saving deposit of Birr 4.9 billion, which
quarter due to the opening of 40 new
was 45.5 percent higher than last year.
branches by private banks during the
Similarly, credit outstanding of the MFIs
review quarter.
These MFIs mobilized a total
scaled up by 21.2 percent to reach Birr 7.5
Meanwhile, the total capital of the banking
billion.
Likewise,
their
total
assets
system reached Birr 17.5 billion at the end
increased by 28.1 percent to Birr 12.05
of the third quarter of the fiscal year
billion by the end of March 2012 (Table
2011/12, of which private banks together
4.7). In line with their intended purpose,
accounted for 48.2 percent. The share of
MFIs are contributing to poverty reduction
the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, the
by providing loans to and mobilizing
biggest state owned bank, was 35.6 percent.
savings from the low-income segments of
(Table 4.5).
the population.
The top five largest MFIs (Amhara Credit
The total number of insurance companies
& Saving, Dedebit Credit & Saving,
operating in the country reached 15 during
Oromia Credit & Saving, Omo credit &
the review quarter, of which 14 were
saving and Addis Credit & Savings) alone
privately owned. The number of branches
accounted for 86.2 percent of the total
increased to 232 from 218 last year. About
capital, 94 percent of the savings, 89.6
52 percent of the total branches were
percent of the credit and 90.5 percent of the
located in Addis Ababa, showing low
total assets of the industry.
outreach to other cities and towns.
The total capital of the insurance industry
surged by 28.4 percent on annual basis and
reached Birr 1.1 billion. The share of
private insurance companies stood at 72.7
percent
against
69.5
percent
in
the
preceding quarter (Table 4.6).
Third quarter 2011/12
35
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.5: Capital and Branch Network of Banking System as at March 31, 2012
(Branch in Number and Capital in Millions of Birr)
Branch Network
2010/11
Quarter III
2011/12
Quarter II
2010/11
Capital
2011/12
Quarter III
Reg.
A.A
Total
%
Share
Reg.
A.A
Total
%
Share
Reg.
A.A
Total
%
Share
Quarter
III
Quarter
II
Quarter
III
255
79
334
38.6
395
103
498
44.2
395
103
498
42.2
5,528.0
6,231.0
6,231.0
17
15
32
3.7
40
22
62
5.5
48
29
77
6.5
251.0
285.0
364.0
31
1
32
3.7
31
1
32
2.8
31
1
32
2.7
2,018.0
2,254.0
2,454.0
303
95
398
46.0
466
126
592
52.6
474
133
607
51.4
7797
8770
9049
35
31
33
33
68
64
7.9
7.4
37
33
40
36
77
69
6.8
6.1
37
36
44
37
81
73
6.9
6.2
962.0
939.0
1,249.0
1,157.0
1,254.0
1,157.0
Abyssinia Bank
25
32
57
6.6
26
32
58
5.2
29
32
61
5.2
483.0
648.0
687.0
Wegagen Bank
United Bank
Nib
International
Bank
Cooperative
Bank of Oromia
Lion
International
Bank
Oromia
International
Bank
Zemen Bank
Buna
International
Bank
Berhan
International
Bank
Abay Bank
Addis
International
Bank
Total Private
Banks
3.Grand Total
Banks
28
17
23
31
51
48
5.9
5.5
33
23
26
33
59
56
5.2
5.0
33
26
27
36
60
62
5.1
5.2
1,008.0
627.0
1,264.0
784.0
1,267.0
785.0
19
32
51
5.9
19
33
52
4.6
19
34
53
4.5
919.0
1,083.0
1,241.0
37
5
42
4.8
42
5
47
4.2
44
6
50
4.2
179.0
243.0
287.0
13
11
24
2.8
17
13
30
2.7
17
13
30
2.5
291.0
328.0
341.0
25
0
8
3
33
3
3.8
0.3
26
0
11
3
37
3
3.3
0.3
28
2
11
4
39
6
3.3
0.5
246.0
163.0
351.0
290.0
374.0
290.0
2
9
11
1.3
6
9
15
1.3
11
10
21
1.8
184.0
229.0
236.0
3
1
7
5
10
6
1.2
0.7
5
14
8
2
13
16
1.2
1.4
6
18
8
2
14
20
1.2
1.7
122.0
148.0
155.0
192.0
170.0
204.0
0
0
0
0.0
0
2
2
0.0
1
3
4
0.3
0.0
123.0
137.0
236
232
468
54.0
281
253
534
47.4
307
267
574
48.6
6,271.0
8,096.0
8,430.0
539 327
866 100.0 747
Source: Bank Supervision Directorate, NBE
Reg. stands for regions
379
1126
100.0
781
400
1181
100.0
14,068.0
16,866.0
17,479.0
Banks
1. Public Banks
Commercial
Bank of
Ethiopia
Construction &
Business Bank
Development
Bank of
Ethiopia
Total Public
Banks
2. Private
Banks
Awash
International
Bank
Dashen Bank
Third quarter 2011/12
36
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source: Bank Supervision Directorate and National Bank of Ethiopia
BN denotes branch network and C= Capital
Table 4.6: Branch Network and Capital of Insurance Companies as at March 31, 2012
(Branch in number and Capital in Millions of Birr)
Branch
Quarter III
2010/11
Capital
Quarter III
2011/12
Quarter II 2011/12
Quarter
III
Quarter
II
Quarter
III
A.A
Reg
Total
A.A
Reg
Total
A.A
Reg
Total
2010/11
2011/12
2011/12
11
17
6
8
30
11
7
8
41
28
13
11
19
6
30
11
7
41
30
13
11
19
6
32
11
7
43
30
13
282.9
76.7
68.2
295.9
102.5
84.8
292.2
103.7
87.6
16
9
23
15
United Insurance Company
10
6
Global Insurance Company
21
11
Nile Insurance Company
16
9
Nyala Insurance Company
22
14
Nib Insurance Company
11
6
Lion Insurance Company
0
0
0
Ethio-Life Insurance Company
8
8
16
8
Oromia Insurance Company
0
1
1
1
Abay Insurance Company S.C.
3
Berhan insurance S.C
0
0
0
0
Tsehay Insurance S.C
110
108
218
118
TOTAL
Source: Insurance Supervision Directorate, NBE
Reg. stands for regions
8
8
4
10
8
8
5
0
8
2
0
0
109
17
23
10
21
17
22
11
0
16
3
3
0
227
9
15
6
11
9
14
6
0
10
1
4
8
8
4
10
8
8
5
0
8
2
0
121
111
17
23
10
21
17
22
11
0
18
3
4
232
20.7
66.5
23.0
91.2
80.5
76.9
10.1
4.0
21.9
9.6
0.0
832.3
18.4
93.7
26.3
105.1
94.9
75.2
24.7
5.3
21.2
11.1
11.3
970.5
46.1
89.1
27.9
121.3
103.6
99.7
30.4
5.3
29.5
10.0
11.0
11.4
1,068.7
Insurance Companies
Ethiopian Insurance Corporation
Awash Insurance Company
Africa Insurance Company
National Insurance Corporation of
Ethiopia
15
6
11
8
14
6
Third quarter 2011/12
8
4
10
8
8
5
37
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.7: Microfinance Institutions Performance as at March 31, 2012
(In Thousands of Birr)
2010/11
Particulars
2011/12
Qtr.III
Qtr. II
A
Total Capital
Saving
Credit
Total Assets
% Change
Qtr.III
B
2,767,189.0
3,371,300.0
6,199,163.0
9,407,323.0
C/A
26.2
45.5
21.2
28.1
C
3,269,346.0
4,334,544.0
7,355,089.0
10,953,137.0
3491468
4903920
7514288
12048730
C/B
6.8
13.1
2.2
10.0
Source: Microfinance Supervision Directorate, NBE
4.5. Activities of the Banking System
4.5.1. Resource Mobilization
Total resources mobilized by the banking
percent over last year same period due to
system (as measured by the sum of net
higher net deposit.
change in deposit, loans collected and net
change in borrowings) went up by 9.1
Table 4.8: Summary of Resource Mobilization and Disbursement of Banking System during 3rd Quarter of 2011/12
(In Millions of Birr)
Particulars
Public Banks
Private Banks
Grand Total
1
2
(3) = (1) + (2)
Qtr.III
Qtr. II
Qtr.III
2011/12
2011/12
% Change
Qtr .II
Qtr.III
Qtr. II
Qtr.III
2010/11
2011/12
2011/12
2011/12
2011/12
A
B
C
9,095.3
15,749.9
1,278.5
1,408.5
15,404.2
10,373.8
17,158.3
11.4
65.4
-Demand
6,133.2
7,925.9
71.8
-543.5
8,551.0
6,205.0
7,382.3
-13.7
19.0
-Saving
2,954.0
3,478.4
719.2
1,338.8
6,261.6
3,673.2
4,817.3
-23.1
31.1
8.1
4,345.5
487.5
613.2
591.5
495.6
4,958.7
738.3
900.6
2,838.2
1,389.0
0.0
0.0
1,539.8
2,838.2
1,389.0
-9.8
-51.1
2,838.2
1,407.4
0.0
0.0
1,451.2
2,838.2
1,407.4
-3.0
-50.4
0.0
-18.4
0.0
0.0
88.7
0.0
-18.4
-120.8
-
3,435.8
2,917.8
3,735.2
4,150.9
6,526.7
7,171.1
7,068.7
8.3
-1.4
15,369.4
20,056.7
5,013.8
5,559.4
23,470.7
20,383.1
25,616.1
9.1
25.7
5. Disbursement
7,331.8
10,940.8
6,126.5
3,663.8
9,214.6
13,458.3
14,604.6
58.5
8.5
6. Change in Liquidity (4-5)
8,037.5
9,115.9
-1,112.7
1,895.6
14,256.1
6,924.8
11,011.4
-22.8
59.0
55,547.3
68,054.3
33,812.4
35,071.9
73,632.4
89,359.7
103,126.2
40.1
15.4
98.5
98.4
0.0
0.0
183.9
98.5
98.4
-46.5
0.0
1.Deposits (net change)
-Time
2. Borrowing (net change)
-Local
-Foreign
3. Collection of Loans
4. Total Resources Mobilized (1+2+3)
C/A
C/B
Memorandum Item:
A. Outstanding Credit*
B. Outstanding Interbank Lending
Source: Commercial Banks and staff computation
Notes: *Excludes government borrowing in the form of bonds and treasury bills from commercial banks and other sectors other than
NBE
Third quarter 2011/12
38
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source: NBE
4.5.1.1. Deposit Mobilization
Total deposit liabilities of the banking
total deposits went up by 27 percent during
system reached Birr 174.9 billion at the end
same
of the third quarter, indicating annual
constituted 6.1 percent of the total deposit
growth rate of 35 percent. This was partly
liabilities, surged by 115.1 percent over the
attributed to the rise in the number of bank
same period last year.
branches opened and improvements in
economic activities.
period.
Time
deposits,
which
The share of public banks in total deposits
mobilization increased marginally to 67.9
Component wise, demand deposits, which
percent from 64.7 percent last year, while the
accounted for 50.2 percent of the total
share of private banks decreased from 35.3 to
deposits, reached Birr 87.9 billion, showing
32.1 percent (Table 4.9).
annual increase of 36.3 percent. Similarly,
saving deposits, with 43.7 percent share in
Third quarter 2011/12
39
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.9: Stock of Deposits Mobilized by Banking System as at March 31, 2012
(In Millions of Birr)
2010/11
Quarter
III
A
2011/12
%
Share
Quarter
II
B
%
Share
% Change
Quarter
III
C
%
Share
C/A
C/B
Types of Deposits
Demand Deposit
64,482.3
49.8
80,480.7
51.0
87,863.0
50.2
36.3
9.2
Saving Deposit
60,148.2
46.4
71,592.6
45.4
76,409.9
43.7
27.0
6.7
4,936.7
3.8
5,658.7
3.6
10,617.4
6.1
115.1
87.6
129,567.2
100.0
157,732.1
100.0
174,890.4
100.0
35.0
10.9
Time Deposit
Total
Share of Public Banks
64.7
65.3
67.9
Share of Private Banks
35.3
34.7
32.1
Source: Commercial Banks and DBE
Source: Commercial Banks and DBE
Third quarter 2011/12
40
National Bank of Ethiopia
4.5.1.2. Collection of Loans
4.5.1.3. Borrowing
During the review period, the banking
system collected Birr 7.1 billion, about 8.3
percent higher than a year earlier (Table
4.8). Of the total loan collection,
private
banks collected Birr 4.2 billion (58.7
percent) while public banks took the
remaining balance. About 79.8 percent of
the total loan collection was from private
enterprises followed by cooperatives (10.8
Total outstanding borrowing of the banking
system reached Birr 15.9 billion, up by 9.6
percent, on annual basis due to 10.4 percent
growth in domestic borrowings.
Of the
total borrowing, Birr 15 billion (94.1
percent) came from domestic sources while
the remaining Birr 954.8 million (6
percent) was from foreign sources (Table
4.10).
percent) and state enterprises (9.3 percent).
Table 4.10: Outstanding Borrowing of Banking System by Sources as at March 31, 2012
(In Millions of Birr)
2010/11
2011/12
Quarter III
Quarter II
Quarter III
A
B
C
Banks
Domestic Borrowing
Percentage change
C/A
C/B
6,441.7
13,567.6
14,975.1
10.4
132.5
997.7
973.2
954.8
(1.9)
(4.3)
Total
7,439.3
Source: Commercial banks and DBE
14,540.8
15,929.9
9.6
114.1
Foreign Borrowing
4.5.2. Disbursement of Fresh Loans
During the third quarter of the fiscal year, total
went to finance private enterprises and
fresh loan disbursement reached Birr 14.6
cooperatives (Table 4.12).
billion, indicating an increase of 58.5 percent
compared with the same period of last year
(Table 4.8). Public Banks disbursed Birr 10.9
billion or 74.9 percent while the remaining
About 83.5 percent of new loan disbursement
Third quarter 2011/12
Sector wise, agriculture was the largest
beneficiary (54.2
percent),
followed
by
industry (20.9 percent) and domestic trade
(13.9 percent) (Table 4.11).
41
National Bank of Ethiopia
balance was made by private banks (Table
4.12).
Source: Commercial Banks and DBE
Table 4.11: Summary of Loans and Advances by Banks and Receiving Sectors in QIII, 2011/12
(In Millions of Birr)
Borrowing Sector
Central Government *
Agriculture
Industry
Domestic Trade
International Trade
Export
Imports
Hotels and Tourism
Transport & Communication
Housing & Construction
Mines, Power & Water Res.
Others
Personal
Inter-Bank Lending
Total
Public Banks
(1)
D**
C**
O/S**
0.0
0.0
2729.2
5,929.5
817.1 14892.7
2,291.9
824.5 22674.6
1,525.5
123.1
2600.0
147.0
335.1 15739.3
123.4
72.1
7059.2
23.6
263.1
8680.1
38.8
35.2
514.4
170.5
199.6
2421.3
688.0
401.2
6061.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
147.4
174.0
2934.4
2.2
6.5
117.7
0.0
1.6
98.4
10,940.8
2,917.8 70,783.4
Private Banks
(2)
D**
C**
O/S **
0.0
0.0
619.0
30.4
58.0
633.9
388.5
516.4
4695.9
979.0 1463.2 10379.9
1302.5 1288.3
9897.2
687.3
518.0
4615.9
615.2
770.3
5281.3
101.2
66.7
1158.5
234.1
263.4
1902.6
548.1
423.3
5490.6
0.0
2.0
48.1
33.4
31.2
558.1
46.5
38.4
307.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
3,663.8 4,150.9 35,690.9
D**
0.0
5959.9
2680.5
2504.5
1449.5
810.7
638.8
140.0
404.6
1236.0
0.0
180.7
48.8
0.0
14,604.6
Total
(3)
C**
0.0
875.2
1340.8
1586.2
1623.5
590.1
1033.4
101.9
463.0
824.5
2.0
205.2
44.8
1.6
7,068.7
O/S**
3348.2
15526.7
27370.5
12979.9
25636.6
11675.2
13961.4
1672.9
4323.9
11551.9
48.1
3492.5
424.8
98.4
106,474.3
Source: Commercial Banks and staff computation
Notes: *Refers to government borrowing in the form of bonds and treasury bills from commercial banks and other sectors other than NBE
** D = Disbursement, C = Collection, O/S= Outstanding Credit
Third quarter 2011/12
42
National Bank of Ethiopia
4.5.3. Outstanding Credit
Sector wise, credit to industry stood first
Total outstanding credit of the banking
with 25.7 percent share followed by
system (excluding credit to government)
international trade 24.1 percent, agriculture
reached Birr 103.1 billion at the end of
14.6 percent, domestic trade 12.2 percent
March 2012, showing 40.1 percent annual
and housing and construction 10.8 percent
increase (Table 4.8).
(Table 4.11).
Of the total outstanding loan, Birr 81.0
billion or 76 percent was a claim on the
The share of private banks in the total
private sector including cooperatives (Table
outstanding loan stood at 33.5 percent
4.12).
showing a marginal decrease from 37.1
percent in the preceding quarter.
Table 4.12: Breakdown of Loans & Advances of Banking System by Clients, during third
Quarter of 2011/12
(In Millions of Birr)
Particulars
Public Banks
Loan
Disbursement
% Share
Loan Collection
%
Share
Outstanding
Loan
%
Share
10,940.8
74.9
2,917.8
41.3
70,783.4
66.5
Central Government*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2,729.2
3.9
State Enterprises
2,414.2
22.1
655.1
22.5
21,942.7
31.0
Cooperatives
5,521.6
50.5
750.3
25.7
11,968.3
16.9
Private Enterprises
3,005.0
27.5
1,510.8
51.8
34,044.9
48.1
Inter-bank Lending
0.0
0.0
1.6
0.1
98.4
0.1
3,663.8
25.1
4,150.9
58.7
35,690.9
33.5
Central Government*
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
619.0
1.7
State Enterprises
1.5
0.0
0.4
0.0
45.0
0.1
Private Banks
Cooperatives
112.4
3.1
17.2
0.4
529.4
1.5
Private Enterprises
3,549.9
96.9
4,133.4
99.6
34,497.5
96.7
Inter-bank Lending
Grand Total
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14,604.6
100.0
7,068.7
100.0
106,474.3
100.0
Source: Commercial banks and DBE
Notes: *Refers to government borrowing in the
form of bonds and treasury bills from commercial
banks and other sectors other than NBE
Third quarter 2011/12
43
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source: Commercial Banks and DBE
4.6. Financial Activities of NBE
As at March 31, 2012, total claims of NBE
21.1 percent against the balance the same
on the central government reached Birr
period last year. Of the total deposits, 39.7
55.6 billion, up by 7 percent vis-à-vis same
percent
period last year. Direct advances amounted
government which increased year-on-year
to Birr 46.3 billion (83.3 percent of the total
basis by 6.1 percent (Table 4.13). Deposit
claims), showing an annual increase of 8.8
by financial institutions also went down by
percent. In contrast, NBE’s holdings of
32.4 percent during same period due to the
government bonds slightly declined by 1.4
downward revision of reserve requirement
percent to Birr 9.3 billion at the end of the
from 15 percent to 10 percent of net
review quarter.
deposits.
Meanwhile,
deposits
of
the
was
deposit
of
the
central
central
government and financial institutions at the
NBE declined to Birr 30.1 billion, down by
Third quarter 2011/12
44
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.13: Financial Activities of NBE during Third Quarter of 2011/12
In Million of Birr)
2010/11
2011/12
Qtr. III
Qtr. II
Qtr. III
A
B
C
Particulars
1.Loans and Advances
% Change
C/A
C/B
51,930.6
65,632.5
67,432.5
29.9
2.7
51,930.6
55,562.5
55,562.5
7.0
0.0
42,504.0
46,264.9
46,264.9
8.8
0.0
9,426.6
9,297.5
9,297.5
-1.4
0.0
0.0
10,070.0
11,870.0
-
17.9
38,194.2
43,442.8
30,147.3
-21.1
-30.6
2.1. Government
11,276.7
17,307.1
11,962.1
6.1
-30.9
2.2. Financial Institutions
26,917.6
26,135.8
18,185.2
-32.4
-30.4
26,861.8
26,130.2
18,177.0
-32.3
-30.4
55.8
5.5
8.1
-85.5
46.9
13,736.3
22,189.7
37,285.2
171.4
68.0
1.1. To Central Government
Direct Advance
Bonds
1.2.To Development Bank of Ethiopia
2.Deposit Liabilities
O/W:
-Banks
-Insurance companies
3.Net Claims of NBE
Source: NBE
4.7. Developments in Financial
Markets
4.7.1. Treasury Bills Market
percent a year ago. As a result, the share
During the third quarter, the amount of T-
of non-bank institutions decreased to 58.6
bills supplied declined by about 8 percent
percent from 67 percent last year.
compared with last year same period. The
demand for T-bills, however surged by
65.6 percent to Birr 18.7 billion, during the
same period (Table 4.14).
Of the total T-bills sold, (Birr 16.67
billion) the share of commercial banks
increased to 41 percent compared to 33
Third quarter 2011/12
The stock of T-bills at the end of the
quarter reached Birr 17.1 billion reflecting
88.9 percent growth over the same period
last year, respectively.
The average weighted yield also rose
from 1.2 percent last year to 1.9 percent
during the review period (Table 4.14).
45
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.14: Results of Treasury Bills Auctions
Particulars
Number of Bidders
Public
Private
Number of Bids Accepted
Public
Private
Amount Demanded (Mn. Birr)
28-day bill
91-day bill
182-day bill
364-day bill
Amount Supplied (Mn. Birr)
28-day bill
91-day bill
182-day bill
364-day bill
Amount Sold (Mn. Birr)
Banks
Non-Banks
Average Weighted Price for Successful
Bids(Birr)
28-day bill
91-day bill
182-day bill
364-day bill
Average Weighted Yeild for Successful
Bids (%)
28-day bill
91-day bill
182-day bill
364-day bill
Outstanding bills at the end
of Period (Mn.Br.)
Banks
Non-Banks
2010/11
Qtr.III
A
2011/12
Qtr. II
B
Qtr.III
C
% Change
C/A
C/B
48
34
14
67
41
26
11,281.36
5,120.00
4,941.36
1,220.00
0.00
20,231.36
9,470.00
8,941.36
1,820.00
0.00
10,581.36
3,490.00
7,091.36
102
51
51
113
51
62
16,646.31
7,214.95
6,727.36
2,704.00
1,670.00
30,177.90
15,775.63
11,094.97
3,307.30
1,800.00
16,646.31
5,424.95
11,221.36
116
49
67
169
59
110
18,679.58
6,964.92
7,594.66
2,120.00
2,000.00
18,629.00
6,441.64
7,667.36
3,220.00
1,300.00
16,679.58
6,902.52
9,777.06
141.7
44.1
378.6
152.2
43.9
323.1
65.6
36.0
53.7
73.8
0.0
-7.9
-32.0
-14.2
76.9
0.0
57.6
97.8
37.9
13.7
-3.9
31.4
49.6
15.7
77.4
12.2
-3.5
12.9
-21.6
0.0
-38.3
-59.2
-30.9
-2.6
0.0
0.2
27.2
-12.9
99.748
99.860
99.708
99.674
0.000
99.586
99.789
99.687
99.282
97.095
99.152
99.781
99.638
99.469
97.721
-0.12
-0.08
-0.07
-0.21
0.00
0.04
-0.01
-0.05
0.19
0.00
1.199
1.708
1.142
0.748
0.000
1.827
2.763
1.261
1.456
3.000
1.935
2.859
1.458
1.072
2.351
46.1
67.3
27.7
43.3
-2.4
3.5
15.6
-26.4
9,033.25
2,170.84
6,862.41
14,026.36
435.00
13,591.36
17,061.38
890.02
16,171.36
88.9
-59.0
135.7
21.6
104.6
19.0
Source: NBE
Third quarter 2011/12
47
National Bank of Ethiopia
(In millions of Birr)
Fig IV.13: Developments in T-Bills Market
35000
32500
30000
27500
25000
22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
I II III IV I II III IV I
2000/01
2001/02
II III IV I
2002/03
II III IV I
2003/04
II III IV I
2004/05
II III IV I
2005/06
Demand
II III IV I
2006/07
II III IV I
2007/08
II III IV I
2008/9
II III IV I
2009/10
II III IV I
2010/11
II III
2011/12
Supply
Source: NBE
Third quarter 2011/12
48
National Bank of Ethiopia
Fig IV.14: Developments in Average Weighted Yields of T-bills with Different Maturities
4.50
4.00
3.50
(In percent)
3.00
2.50
2.00
Source: NBE
1.50
1.00
Source:
NBE
4.7.2. Inter- Bank Money Market
0.50
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
Iv
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
0.00
No inter-bank
money
market
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04 transaction
2004/05
2005/06
28-day
91-day
was conducted during the quarter under
2006/07
2007/08
182-day
2008/9
2009/10
2010/11 2011/12
364-days
review (Table 4.12).
4.7.3. Corporate Bond Market
project.
Corporate bond market is not developed in
Ethiopia; the big players are few public
institutions and regional governments. The
purchaser of these bonds is Commercial Bank
of Ethiopia (CBE).
corporate bonds held by the CBE stood at Birr
56 billion, of which 81.8 percent was claims
on public enterprises and the remaining
During the quarter under review, CBE
purchased corporate bonds worth Birr 7.5
billion, of which 81.9 percent was issued by
public enterprises and the rest by Addis Ababa
City Administration
At the end of March 31, 2012, the stock of
to
finance
housing
balance, on regional states (Table 4.15). The
amount of corporate bond issued by EEPCO
accounted for 78.4 percent of the total
outstanding corporate bond balance about 95.9
percent of the bonds was issued by public
enterprises.
Third quarter 2011/12
48
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 4.15: Corporate and Coupon Bonds by Holders (In millions birr)
2010/11
NP
2011/12
QIII
Red
O/S
NP
Issuer of the Bond
1.Puplic Enterprises
9,100.0
126.1
32,918.5
5,200.0
7500.0
0.0
27000.0
5200.0
EEPCO
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ETC
1600.0
126.1
5918.5
0.0
DBE
2. Regional Governments
613.0
120.8
8,223.9
450.0
120.0
0.0
1865.8
0.0
Oromia
0.0
69.8
1260.4
0.0
Amhara
0.0
2.2
704.2
0.0
Tigray
83.0
8.4
1018.0
0.0
SNNPRS
0.0
0.7
189.9
0.0
Dire Dawa
10.0
2.2
155.2
0.0
Harari
400.0
37.5
3030.5
450.0
Addia Ababa
9,713.0
246.9
41,142.5
5,650.0
3.Grand Total(1+2)
Source: NBE
Note: NP= New Purchase, Red. = Redemption, O/S= outstanding
Third quarter 2011/12
QII
Red
O/S
NP
QIII
Red
O/S
0.0
0.0
39,700.0
37900.0
6,100.0
6000.0
0.0
0.0
45,800.0
43900.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1800.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1900.0
472.7
0.0
9,322.0
1993.3
1,350.0
0.0
449.5
0.0
10,222.5
1993.3
100.0
29.1
14.7
1293.1
758.2
859.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
213.0
34.1
38.3
1080.0
724.1
821.0
2.8
23.2
302.9
220.8
122.3
4075.0
0.0
0.0
1350.0
4.8
12.8
146.5
216.0
109.6
5278.5
472.7
49,022.0
7,450.0
449.5
56,022.5
51
National Bank of Ethiopia
V. External Sector Development
5.1. Overall Balance
Of Payment
percent) and long-term loans (20.9
The
overall
balance
of
payments
percent).
registered USD 230.4 million in deficit
in the third quarter of 2011/12 compared
As the 52 percent growth in merchandise
to USD 301.4 million surplus last year.
imports
outweighed
the
marginal
increase (7.7 percent) in export of goods,
The deficit in the overall balance of
the trade deficit widened by 78.5 percent
payments
to USD 2.31 billion compared to last
was
attributed
to
huge
increases in merchandize trade deficit
year same period.
(78.4 percent), fall in net services (76.5
percent), net official transfers (10.8
Third quarter 2011/12
52
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.1: Balance of Payments
(In millions of USD)
Ethiopian Fiscal Year
Particulars
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
Net Services
Travel
Transportation
Government (n.i.e.)
Investment income
Interest
Cash (net)
Arrears
Relief
Dividend
Other Services
Private Transfers
Current Account Balance(excl. public transfers)
Public Transfers
Current Account Balance(incl. public transfers)
Non-monetary Capital
Long-term (net)
Disbursements
Repayments
Cash
Arrears
Relief
Direct Investment (net)
Short-term (net)
Net Errors & Omissions
Overall Balance
Financing
Reserves (-:increase)
NBE net foreign asset
CBs net foreign asset
Debt Relief
Principal
Interest
Source: Staff compilation.
Third quarter 2011/12
2010/11
2011/12
Percentage
Change
QIII
QII
QIII
A
-1295.8
762.4
B
-2194.7
594.4
C
-2311.7
821.0
C/B
5.3
38.1
C/A
78.4
7.7
2,058.2
230.0
187.6
66.9
46.7
-18.4
-13.7
-13.7
0.0
0.0
-4.7
-52.8
865.0
2,789.1
-67.5
126.1
96.3
38.9
-34.0
-30.8
-30.4
0.0
-0.37
-3.2
-294.7
934.9
3,132.7
54.0
119.4
61.9
43.8
-19.6
-17.4
-17.0
0.0
-0.39
-2.2
-151.5
1045.9
12.3
-5.3
-35.6
12.6
-42.3
-43.6
-44.2
52.2
-76.5
-36.3
-7.4
-6.3
6.6
26.9
24.1
5.4
-30.4
-48.6
11.9
-52.9
186.9
20.9
-200.8
-1327.2
-1211.8
-8.7
503.5
292.4
529.7
260.7
-50.8
-10.8
91.6
750.7
401.7
433.2
31.5
28.4
0.0
3.1
337.8
11.2
-540.9
-797.5
641.3
209.5
345.8
136.3
135.0
0.0
1.3
442.2
-10.3
-224.6
-951.0
789.5
268.6
342.7
74.1
71.4
0.0
2.7
498.7
22.3
-68.9
19.3
23.1
28.2
-0.9
-45.6
-47.1
-1138.0
5.2
-33.1
-20.9
135.2
151.4
103.0
12.8
-315.8
-69.3
-12.9
47.6
98.3
-87.3
301.4
-380.8
-230.4
-301.4
-298.3
-289.8
-8.6
-3.1
3.1
0.0
380.8
382.4
290.4
92.1
-1.7
1.3
0.4
230.4
233.5
603.5
-369.9
-3.1
2.7
0.4
53
National Bank of Ethiopia
Total current foreign exchange receipts
Consequently,
the
current
account
in the review quarter amounted to USD
balance recorded USD 951 million net
2.76 billion; about 6.1 percent higher
outflows, significantly higher than USD
than the same period last year solely in
91.6 million net inflows a year ago.
response to growth in net private
(Table 5.2)
transfers (20.9 percent) and in export
proceed (7.7 percent).
On the other hand, total current foreign
exchange payments rose by 47.8 percent
quarter-on-quarter, and reached USD 3.7
billion on account of increases in both
merchandize imports (52.2 percent) and
service payments (27.8 percent).
Table 5.2: Current Receipts and Payments
(In millions of USD)
Particulars
2010/11
Qtr III
A
2011/12
Qtr II
B
Qtr III
C
Percentage Change
D=C/B
E=C/A
2,602.3
2,799.0
2,759.8
-1.4
6.1
Export Proceeds
762.4
594.4
821.0
38.1
7.7
Service Proceeds
682.5
739.9
632.1
-14.6
-7.4
Private Transfers(net)
865.0
934.9
1,045.9
11.9
20.9
Public Transfer(net)
292.4
529.7
260.7
-50.8
-10.8
2. Current Payments
2,510.7
3,596.5
3,710.8
3.2
47.8
Import Payments
2,058.2
2,789.1
3,132.7
12.3
52.2
Service Payments
452.5
807.4
578.1
-28.4
27.8
91.6
-797.5
-951.0
1. Current Receipts
3. Net(1-2)
Source: Staff Compilation
Third quarter 2011/12
54
National Bank of Ethiopia
Fig. V:1. Trends in Current Receipts and Payments
7000
Million USD
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
Current Receipts
2010/11
Qtr III
Qtr II
Qtr I
Qtr IV
Qtr III
Qtr II
Qtr I
QtrIV
QtrIII
Qtr II
Qtr I
QtrIV
QtrIII
Qtr II
Qtr I
QtrIV
QtrIII
Qtr II
Qtr I
0
2011/12
Current Payments
5.2. Merchandise Trade
Merchandise trade deficit during the
was the result of strong import growth
third quarter of 2011/12, stood at USD
that
2.3 billion which widened by 78.4
exports.
overwhelmed
the
growth
in
percent with respect to the same period
last year. The widening of trade deficit
Fig V.2. Quarterly Movements in Export Proceeds & Import Payments
In Millions of USD
Export
Import
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Source: Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority
Third quarter 2011/12
55
National Bank of Ethiopia
In Millions of USD
Fig V.3. Evolution of Trade Deficit
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3 q4 q1 q2 q3
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Source: NBE Staff Compilation
percent),
gold
(32.8
Total export proceed in the third quarter
animals
(59.6
percent),
of 2011/12 amounted to USD 821
vegetables (39.6 percent) and meat &
million, registering 7.7 percent relative
meat products (9.8 percent) owing to
to the same period last year.
enhanced better improved international
5.2.1. Exports
percent),
live
fruits
&
commodity prices.
The quarter-on-quarter growth in total
export revenue was largely attributed to
higher earnings from oilseeds (51.2
Table 5.3: Values of Major Export Items
(In Millions of USD)
2010/11
Qtr III
Particulars
A
%share
Coffee
221.0
29.0
Oilseeds
123.7
16.2
Leather and Leather
products
29.1
3.8
Pulses
43.5
5.7
Meat & Meat Products
16.7
2.2
Fruits & Vegetables
9.6
1.3
Live Animals
30.3
4.0
Chat
54.3
7.1
Gold
110.3
14.5
Flower
48.0
6.3
Others
75.9
10.0
Total
762.4
100.0
Source: Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority.
Third quarter 2011/12
2011/12
Qtr II
Percentage
Change
Qtr III
B
112.3
60.5
%share
18.9
10.2
C
191.5
187.1
%share
23.3
22.8
C/B
70.6
209.4
C/A
-13.3
51.2
34.9
33.7
19.7
10.6
47.6
59.2
123.6
46.4
46.1
594.5
5.9
5.7
3.3
1.8
8.0
10.0
20.8
7.8
7.8
100.0
19.1
43.5
18.4
13.4
48.4
52.8
146.5
50.9
49.6
821.0
2.3
5.3
2.2
1.6
5.9
6.4
17.8
6.2
6.0
100.0
-45.4
29.0
-6.7
26.6
1.7
-10.8
18.5
9.7
7.6
38.1
-34.5
0.0
9.8
39.6
59.6
-2.6
32.8
5.9
-34.6
7.7
56
National Bank of Ethiopia
USD 13.4 million. As a result, the share
Earning from export of oilseeds in the
of fruits & vegetables in the total export
review period recorded a 51.2 percent
earnings improved to 1.6 percent from
annual increment to reach USD 187.1
1.3 percent last year.
million, on account of 55 percent growth
in volume of export despite a slight 2.5
Flower export earning at USD 51 million
percents decline in international price.
registered 5.9 percent growth over the
As a result, the share of oilseeds export
same period last largely owing to
in total revenue rose to 22.8 percent
increased volume and marginal rise in
from 16.2 percent last year.
price. However, the share of flowers in
total export revenue slightly declined to
Revenue from export of gold reached
6.2 percent from 6.3 percent last year.
USD 146.5 million, showing a 32.8
percent growth quarter-on-quarter basis,
Meanwhile, export revenue from meat &
solely attributed to 36.9 increase in
meat products export rose by 9.8 percent
international price. The share of gold
relative to last year and amounted to
export in total export went up to 17.8
USD 18.4 million. This was wholly on
percent in contrast to 14.5 recent a year
account of higher international price
earlier.
(23.9 percent) despite decline in the
volume of export (11.4 percent). The
Export of live animals earned USD 48.4
million
which
revenue
by
exceeded
and
59.6
last
year
percent.
Improvements in volume of export (36
percent) and world prices (17.4 percent)
were the driving factors for higher
earnings from such export.
Owing to higher volume of export and
world price, export proceeds from fruits
& vegetables grew by 39.6 percent vis-à-
share of meat & meat products export in
total export remained unchanged at 2.2
percent on quarter-on-quarter basis.
Earnings from export of pulses reached
USD 43.5 million and revealed no
improvement as compared to last year
same period. Consequently, the share of
pulses export in total export declined
from 5.7 percent a year ago to 5.3
percent during the review period.
vis the same period last year to reach
Third quarter 2011/12
57
National Bank of Ethiopia
On the other hand, export of coffee
share in the total export earnings
fetched USD 191.5 million which was
dropped to 2.3 percent from 3.8 percent
13.3 percent lower than last year the
a year earlier.
same period owing to 19.9 percent fall in
volume despite 8.2 percent improvement
Similarly, revenue from exports of chat
in international coffee price Coffee
went down by 2.6 percent on quarter-on-
export accounted for 23.3 percent of the
quarter basis, respectively, mainly due to
total export, down from 29 percent last
4 percent decreases in volume of
year the same period.
exports. Chat export accounted for 6.4
percent of the total export earnings
Export earnings from leather and leather
during the review quarter down from 7.1
products fell by 34.5 percent in relation
percent last year.
to last year, and amounted to USD 19.1
million. This was largely attributed to
decline in the volume of exports despite
better international price. As a result, its
Table 5.4: Volume of Major Export Items
(In Millions of k.g.)
2010/11
Qtr III
Particulars
A
2011/12
Qtr II
Qtr III
B
C
Percentage Change
C/B*100-100
C/A*100100
Coffee
45.5
20.9
36.5
74.3
-19.9
Oilseeds
97.0
46.1
150.5
226.4
55.1
Leather and Leather products
1.34
1.54
0.61
-60.5
-54.6
Pulses
73.9
48.4
61.7
27.6
-16.5
4.4
4.5
3.9
-13.6
-11.4
Fruits & Vegetables
22.3
29.2
29.4
0.6
31.8
Live Animals
23.9
33.7
32.5
-3.7
36.0
Meat & Meat Products
Chat
9.3
10.1
8.9
-11.5
-4.0
Gold
0.0028
0.0025
0.003
11.0
-3.0
Flower
10.9
11.6
Source: Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority
11.5
-0.3
5.8
Third quarter 2011/12
58
National Bank of Ethiopia
Fig V.4. Export Proceeds from Selected Commodities (In Millions of USD)
300.00
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
q1
q2
q3
q4
q1
q2
2007/08
q3
q4
q1
q2
2008/09
Coffee
Oilseeds
q3
q4
q1
q2
2009/10
q3
q4
q1
2010/11
Leather & Leather Products
Pulses
q2
q3
2011/12
Chat
Gold
Source: Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority
Export proceeds from coffee and oilseeds
first and second quarter (trough) and a rise
seem to have a pattern showing a fall in
in third and fourth quarter (peak).
Fig V.5. Export Volume of Selected Commodties
(In millions of Kg)
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
q1
q2
q3
q4
2007/08
Coffee
q1
q2
q3
q4
q1
2008/09
Leather & Leather Products
q2
q3
q4
2009/10
q1
q2
q3
2010/11
Chat
Pulses
q4
q1
q2
q3
2011/12
Oilseeds
Source: Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority
Third quarter 2011/12
59
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.5: Unit value of Major Export Items
(In USD/kg)
2010/11
Qtr III
Particulars
Coffee
Oilseeds
Leather and Leather
products
Pulses
Meat & Meat Products
Fruits & Vegetables
Live Animals
Chat
Gold
Flower
2011/12
Qtr II
Qtr III
Percentage Change
A
4.85
1.28
B
5.36
1.31
C/B*100C/A*100C
100
100
5.25
-2.1
8.2
1.24
-5.2
-2.5
21.71
0.59
3.79
0.43
1.27
5.82
39.09
4.41
22.72
0.69
4.35
0.36
1.41
5.86
50.13
4.01
31.38
0.70
4.70
0.46
1.49
5.91
53.52
4.41
38.1
1.1
8.0
25.8
5.6
0.8
6.8
10.1
44.5
19.7
23.9
6.0
17.4
1.5
36.9
0.1
Source: NBE Staff Computation
Fig V.6. Unit Value of Selected Commodities
35.00
30.00
USD/Kg
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
q1
q2
q3
q4
q1
2007/08
q2
q3
q4
2008/09
Coffee
q1
q2
q3
q4
2009/10
Leather & Leather Products
q1
q2
q3
q4
2010/11
q1
q2
q3
2011/12
Chat
Source: NBE Staff Computation
5.2.2. Imports
Total import bill during the third quarter
consumer goods (79.4 percent), semi-
of 2011/12 stood at USD 3.1 billion
finished goods (81.2 percent), capital
about 52.2 percent higher than last year.
goods (41 percent), fuel (15.5 percent)
This was attributed to higher imports of
and raw materials (5 percent).
Third quarter 2011/12
60
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.6: Values of Major Import Items
(In millions of USD)
2010/11
Qtr III
Particulars
%
share
from
total
import
Qtr II
A
Raw Materials
Semi-finished Goods
Fertilizers
2011/12
%
share
from
total
import
Qtr III
B
%
share
from
total
import
C
Percentage Changes
C/B
C/A
46.9
2.3
66.4
2.4
49.2
1.6
-25.9
5.0
384.4
18.7
424.9
15.2
696.6
22.2
64.0
81.2
169.3
8.2
76.8
2.8
316.8
10.1
312.6
87.1
494.4
24.0
531.2
19.0
570.9
18.2
7.5
15.5
491.0
23.9
519.0
18.6
554.6
17.7
6.8
13.0
3.4
0.2
12.2
0.4
16.3
0.5
34.0
378.8
Capital Goods
572.1
27.8
716.6
25.7
806.7
25.8
12.6
41.0
Transport
173.5
8.4
240.8
8.6
189.4
6.0
-21.3
9.2
11.1
0.5
29.1
1.0
32.8
1.0
12.7
195.9
387.5
18.8
446.6
16.0
584.5
18.7
30.9
50.8
528.1
25.7
998.6
35.8
947.5
30.2
-5.1
79.4
Durables
211.3
10.3
267.5
9.6
300.9
9.6
12.5
42.4
Non-durables
316.9
15.4
731.1
26.2
646.6
20.6
-11.6
104.1
32.2
1.6
51.4
1.8
61.6
2.0
19.9
91.2
Total Imports
2,058.2
100.0
Source: Ethiopian Revenues and Customs Authority
2,789.1
100.0
3,132.7
100.0
12.3
52.2
Fuel
Petroleum Products
Others
Agricultural
Industrial
Consumer Goods
Miscellaneous
The 79.4 percent annual surge in import
Likewise, import bill of capital goods in
payments for consumer goods during the
the review period was USD 806.7
review period was ascribed to significant
million about 41 percent higher than a
rise in imports of non-durables (104.1
year ago. Import of capital goods in the
percent) and durable consumer goods
review quarter constituted 25.8 percent
(42.4 percent).
of total imports of same period which
was down from 27.8 percent last year.
As a result, the share of consumer goods
in total import went up to 30.2 percent
Similarly, fuel import bill depicted
from 25.7 percent last year same period.
annual increase and reached USD 570.9
million. As a result, it constituted 18.2
During the review period imports of
percent of the total imports, down from
semi-finished
24 percent last year same quarter.
goods
recorded
81.2
percent quarter-on-quarter growth, and
reached to USD 696.6 million.
Third quarter 2011/12
61
National Bank of Ethiopia
Import of raw materials amounted to
USD 49.2 million, depicting a 5 percent
Import of goods on Franco-Valuta basis
growth vis-à-vis last year the same
declined by 47.9 percent and amounted
period. Hence, raw materials import
to USD 10.6 million.
accounted for 1.6 of total import, down
household goods and medicine and
from 2.3 percent compared with last
medical equipments were the main
year.
import items through franco valuta.
Spare parts,
Table 5.7: Values of Franco-valuta Imports
(In Millions of USD)
2011/12
2010/11
Qtr III
Particulars
A
Qtr II
B
QIII
C
Percentage Change
C/B*100-100
C/A*100-100
Vehicles
0.000
0.0000
0.0015
Vehicle Spare Parts
0.148
0.0234
0.0472
101.1
-68.2
Other Spare Parts
0.061
0.0591
0.0541
-8.4
-11.2
Textile & Ready Made
0.000
0.0002
0.0009
274.2
-94.7
Household Goods
0.005
0.0011
0.0541
4838.2
1076.6
Medicine & Medical Equip.
0.009
0.0612
0.0606
-1.0
588.5
Food Stuffs
0.013
0.0015
0.0063
313.8
-49.6
Electronic Goods
0.013
0.0009
0.0095
910.8
-25.1
Machinery Equip. & Spare Parts
0.000
0.0426
0.0253
-40.7
20.1
6.8
10.3
51.8
Others
Total
20.3
7.0
10.6
51.4
Source: NBE, Foreign Exchange Monitoring and Reserve Management Directorate (FEMRMD)
*Includes import of cement on franco valuta basis.
-48.5
-47.9
5.2.3. Direction of Trade
5.2.3.1. Exports
Europe was the largest market for
Gold constituted the bulk of exports to
Ethiopia’s export by importing 43.2
Switzerland while Germany imported
percent of the country’s total exports. Of
mainly coffee, textile & garment, flower
the total exports to Europe, 41.3 percent
and leather & leather products. Flower
went to Switzerland, 15.9 percent to
and vegetables were major export items
Germany, 13.1 percent to Netherlands,
to the Netherlands, and oilseeds and
5.9 percent to Turkey, 5 percent to Italy
textile & garments to Turkey. The main
and 4.9 percent to Belgium.
exports to Italy were coffee, leather &
leather products and textile & garments
Third quarter 2011/12
62
National Bank of Ethiopia
Coffee and pulses were the major export
nations, in particular to Somalia (39.1
items to Belgium.
percent), Sudan (31.3 percent), Djibouti
(15 percent) and Egypt (6.9 percent).
Asia was the second largest destination
Vegetables and live animals were the
for Ethiopian goods with 35.4 percent
main exports to Somalia, live animals,
share of the country’s total export.
coffee, spices, pulses and oilseeds to
Among Asian countries, China’s share
Sudan, Djibouti purchased vegetables
was 43.1 percent which manly imported
and live animals to Djibouti and live
oilseeds followed by Saudi Arabia (17.1
animals and oilseeds to Egypt.
percent) which imported mainly coffee,
meat & meat products, live animals,
The share of America in Ethiopia’s total
pulses and cereals. Israel constituted 8
exports was merely 4 percent, of which
percent of Ethiopian exports during the
86.1 percent went to the USA and 10.1
period mainly for oilseeds and coffee
percent to Canada. Coffee, oilseeds and
UAE imported 7 percent mainly meat &
textile & garment were the major export
meat products, live animals, oilseeds,
items to USA while coffee was the
pulses and vegetables.
principal export to Canada.
Meanwhile,
about
17
percent
of
Ethiopia’s exports were sold to African
Fig V.7. Export by Destination
Asia
35.4%
Oceania
0.6%
Africa
16.9%
America
3.9%
Europe
43.2%
Source: Ethiopian Revenue and Customs Authority
Third quarter 2011/12
63
National Bank of Ethiopia
paper & paper manufacturing, textiles,
5.2.3.2. Imports
and
electrical
materials
Petroleum
About 64 percent of Ethiopia’s imports
product was the main import from
originated from Asia.
Kuwait.
Within the
continent, Saudi Arabia exported 29
percent, China 22.8 percent, India 11.7
Imports from Europe accounted for 22.2
percent, Japan 5.8 percent, Indonesia 4.1
percent of total imports with the
percent and Kuwait 4 percent of the total
following share: which Ukraine 18
import from Asia as a whole.
percent, Italy 13.1 percent, Russia 13
percent, Turkey 10 percent, Spain 9.6
The main imports from Saudi Arabia
percent,
were
Netherlands 6.8 percent and Belgium 6
petroleum
products
which
Germany
percent
petroleum import of Ethiopia during the
Fertilizer, metal & metal manufacturing
review
metal
and grain were the major import items
manufacturing, machinery & aircraft,
from Ukraine, machinery & aircraft,
electrical materials, road & motor
road
vehicles, clothing, textile & textiles and
materials, metal & metal manufacturing
rubber products were the major imports
were Italy. The other major imports from
from
metal
Europe included fertilizer and grain from
&
Russia, metal & metal manufacturing,
pharmaceutical products, machinery &
machinery & air craft and electrical
aircraft, grain, electrical material, rubber
material from Turkey,
products, road & motor vehicles, textile
materials, metal & metal manufacturing
and paper & paper manufacturing were
and road & motor vehicles from Spain,
imported from India. Major imports
machinery & air craft, road & motor
from Japan included road & motor
vehicles, medical & pharmaceutical
vehicles, machinery & aircraft and
products, metal & metal manufacturing,
rubber products. Imports from Indonesia
electrical materials , food & live animals
mainly comprised of soap & polish,
and chemicals from Germany, medical
China.
manufacturing,
Metal
Metal
&
&
medical
Third quarter 2011/12
&
the
motor
major
percent,
constituted 81 percent of the total
period.
were
6.8
vehicles,
suppliers.
electrical
electrical
64
National Bank of Ethiopia
& pharmaceutical products (39.7) and
imports from South Africa. Metal &
food & live animals from Netherlands
metal
and medical & pharmaceutical products
products, rubber products, clothing, food
and machinery & air craft from Belgium.
& live animals and paper & paper
manufacturing,
petroleum
manufacturing were the main imports
African countries constituted 7 percent
from Egypt.
of the total Ethiopian imports during the
review period.
The bulk of imports
In the same period, imports from
originating from Morocco, South Africa,
America constituted 6.6 percent of the
Egypt, and Sudan which altogether
total imports of which, about 73 percent
accounted for 93 percent of the total
was from USA and Brazil. Machinery &
import from Africa. About 50 percent of
air craft, grain, food & live animals,
imports from the continent was from
electrical materials and road & motor
Morocco,
being
vehicles were the major imports from
motor vehicles,
USA. Grain, machinery & air craft, road
medical & pharmaceutical products,
& motor vehicles and tobacco were the
metal
main commodities imported from Brazil.
the
major
fertilizer. Road &
& metal
import
manufacturing and
machinery & aircraft were the main
Fig V.8. Import by Origin
Oceania
0.3%
Africa
6.9%
Europe
22.2%
Asia
64.1%
America
6.6%
Source: Ethiopian Revenue and Customs Authority
Third quarter 2011/12
65
National Bank of Ethiopia
5.3. Services
In the third quarter of 2011/12, the service account recorded USD 54.0 million net
receipts compared to 230 million a year ago.
The total service receipts in the third quarter of 2011/12 decreased by 7.4 percent with
respect to the same period last year mainly due to lower receipts from travel (26.3
percent) and government (12 percent) services.
On the other hand, the total service payments increased sharply by 27.8 percent as a
result of highier payments for other services (43.6 percent) in particular of construction
and communication services, travel (25.9 percent) and transport (23.2 percent).
Fig. V. 9: Trends in Net Services
300
Total Service
250
million USD
Travel
200
Transportation
150
Government
100
50
Qtr III
Qtr II
Qtr I
Qtr IV
Qtr III
Qtr II
Qtr I
Qtr IV
Qtr III
Qtr II
Qtr I
Qtr IV
Qtr III
Qtr II
-50
Qtr I
0
-100
2008/09
Third quarter 2011/12
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
66
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.8: Trends in Service Accounts
(In Millions of USD)
2010/11
Qtr III
A
%
Share
Receipts
682.5
Travel
Transportation
Qtr II
B
%
Share
100.0
739.9
223.9
32.8
323.9
47.5
Government (n.i.e)
50.7
Investment Income
1.7
1.7
Particulars
Interest
Percentage
Change
2011/12
Qtr III
C
%
Share
C/B
C/A
100.0
632.1
100.0
-14.6
-7.4
180.3
24.4
165.1
26.1
-8.4
-26.3
448.8
60.7
378.6
59.9
-15.7
16.9
7.4
45.0
6.1
44.6
7.1
-1.0
-12.0
0.3
1.8
0.2
1.3
0.2
-27.8
-25.1
0.3
1.8
0.2
1.3
0.2
-27.8
-25.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
82.4
12.1
63.9
8.6
42.6
6.7
-33.3
-48.3
Communication Services
31.3
4.6
40.3
5.4
29.3
4.6
-27.2
-6.2
Construction Services
11.5
1.7
9.8
1.3
1.6
0.3
-83.6
-86.0
Insurance Services
0.3
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.0
-69.3
-48.1
Financial Services
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
109.6
-1.3
Computer and Information Service
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
Other Business Services
39.3
5.8
13.2
1.8
11.5
1.8
-13.2
-70.8
Personal, cultural and recreational
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
Payments
452.5
100.0
807.4
100.0
578.1
100.0
-28.4
27.8
Travel
36.3
8.0
54.1
6.7
45.7
7.9
-15.7
25.9
Transportation
257.0
56.8
352.6
43.7
316.6
54.8
-10.2
23.2
Government (n.i.e)
4.0
0.9
6.2
0.8
0.8
0.1
-86.7
-79.2
Investment Income
20.1
4.4
35.8
4.4
20.9
3.6
-41.7
3.9
Dividend
Other Services
15.4
3.4
32.6
4.0
18.7
3.2
-42.8
21.0
Cash (Banks & MOF)
15.4
3.4
32.3
4.0
18.3
3.2
-43.3
18.5
Arrears
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
Relief
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4
0.1
-
-
Dividend
4.7
1.0
3.2
0.4
2.2
0.4
-30.4
-52.7
Interest
135.1
29.9
358.7
44.4
194.1
33.6
-45.9
43.6
Communication Services
5.4
1.2
61.9
7.7
40.7
7.0
-34.2
660.4
Other Services
Construction Services
55.9
12.4
219.3
27.2
69.2
12.0
-68.5
23.7
Insurance Services
3.4
0.8
3.6
0.5
3.9
0.7
7.7
15.0
Financial Services
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-22.5
-33.0
Computer and Information Service
0.8
0.2
0.7
0.1
0.2
0.0
-68.9
-71.4
Other Business Services
69.6
15.4
73.1
9.1
80.1
13.8
9.6
15.0
0.0
230.0
0.0
0.0
-67.5
0.0
0.0
54.0
0.0
-
-
Personal, cultural and recreational
Net Services
Source: Staff Computation
Third quarter 2011/12
67
National Bank of Ethiopia
5.4. Transfer
During the review period, total net
In contrast, net official transfers during
transfer
the same period declined by 10.8 percent
reached
USD
1.3
billion
reflecting 12.9 percent annual growth.
against last year same period and
amounted to USD 260.7 million as cash
The annual net private transfers (both
individual
remittances
and
NGOs
transfers) went up by 20.9 percent
transfers from international financial
institutions and donor governments fell
by 8.3 percent.
during the review period to reach USD
1.04 billion, mainly due to higher NGOs
cash
and
food
transfers
Private
individuals’ cash transfers; however
tended to decline during the review
period.
Third quarter 2011/12
68
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.9: Developments in Transfer Accounts
(In millions of USD)
2010/11
2011/12
A
B
Percentage
Change
C
QIII
% share
Q II
% share
Q III
% share
C/B
C/A
Private Transfers
865.0
74.7
934.1
63.8
1045.9
80.0
12.0
20.9
Credit
869.4
74.7
952.0
64.1
1063.1
80.2
11.7
22.3
NGO's
212.5
18.2
385.2
25.9
347.3
26.2
-9.8
63.5
Cash
212.5
18.2
335.0
22.5
275.9
20.8
-17.6
29.8
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
Food
0.0
0.0
50.2
3.4
71.5
5.4
657.0
56.4
566.8
38.1
715.8
54.0
26.3
9.0
Cash
419.6
36.0
293.7
19.8
317.8
24.0
8.2
-24.3
In kind
20.3
1.7
7.0
0.5
41.6
3.1
494.4
104.8
Under ground Private Transfers
217.1
18.6
266.1
17.9
356.4
26.9
33.9
64.2
-4.4
61.6
-17.9
81.9
-17.3
90.3
-3.7
289.6
292.4
25.3
529.7
36.2
260.7
20.0
-50.8
-10.8
295.2
25.3
533.7
35.9
262.6
19.8
-50.8
-11.0
Cash
286.3
24.6
533.7
35.9
262.6
19.8
-50.8
-8.3
Other
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
Food
8.9
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-2.8
38.4
-4.0
18.1
-1.9
9.7
-53.0
-32.8
Total Receipts
1,164.6
100.6
1,485.7
101.5
1,325.7
101.5
-10.8
13.8
Total Payments
-7.2
-0.6
-21.9
-1.5
-19.1
-1.5
-12.6
165.7
1,157.4
100.0
1,463.8
100.0
1,306.6
100.0
-10.7
12.9
Particulars
Private individuals
Debit
Official Transfers
Credit
Debit
Net Transfers
Source: Staff Computation
Third quarter 2011/12
69
National Bank of Ethiopia
Third quarter 2011/12
70
National Bank of Ethiopia
5.5. Current Account
banking system showed a USD 233.5
million reserve drawdown.
The gross
The current account balance (including
reserves the as at March 31, 2012 was
official transfers) registered USD 951
sufficient to cover 2.1 months of import
million deficit in contrast to USD 68.3
of goods and non-factor services of next
million surplus last year same period.
year.
The deficit widened owing to worsening
trade deficit and a significant fall in
official transfers.
5.6. Capital Account
5.8. Developments in the Foreign
Exchange Market
5.8.1. Exchange Rate Movements
In the interbank
foreign
exchange
In the review period, capital account
market, the average official exchange
recorded USD 789.5 million surplus
rate
which was 5.2 percent higher relative to
17.3107/USD during the third quarter of
last year same period. This was a result
2011/12. It weakened by 1 percent with
of a significant increase in FDI inflows
respect to the previous quarter and 4.1
despite slow down in net official loan
percent compared to last year same
disbursement.
period.
5.7. Changes in Reserve
Position
of
the
Meanwhile,
Birr
the
reached
parallel
Birr
average
exchange rate stood at Birr 18.24/USD,
depicting
a
depreciation
2.3
and
vis-à-vis
6.6
the
percent
previous
Reflecting worsening merchandise trade
quarter and annual basis, respectively.
deficit which more than offset net
As a result, the average premium
private transfers and official loan and
between the official and parallel market
grant disbursements, the overall balance
rates widened to 5.37 percent from 3.97
of payments registered USD 230.4
percent in the preceding quarter and 2.84
million deficit during the review period.
percent last year same period (Table
Consequently, net foreign assets of the
5.10).
Third quarter 2011/12
71
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.10: Developments in Inter-bank and Parallel Foreign Exchange Markets
Rates in Birr per USD
End Period
Rates
Period
Weighted
Rate
Amount Traded
in Millions of
USD
Average
Weighted
Rate
Parallel Market
Rate
(Birr/USD)
Premiu
m
Total
O/w
Among
CBs
End
Period
Average
2010/11
Qtr. III
C
16.7205
16.6342
3.0
0.0
16.9300
17.1067
2.84
January
16.6009
16.5786
0.95
0.0
17.2300
17.2800
4.23
February
16.6547
16.6320
0.95
0.0
17.0250
17.0600
2.57
March
16.7205
16.6921
1.10
0.0
16.9300
16.9800
1.72
17.2201
17.1522
17.5
14.2
17.9300
17.8333
3.97
October
17.1277
17.1064
1.05
0.00
17.8250
17.8400
4.29
November
17.1716
17.1517
6.10
5.00
17.7750
17.7800
3.66
December
17.2201
17.1986
10.30
9.15
17.9300
17.8800
3.96
17.3902
17.3107
41.4
38.2
18.9800
18.2400
5.37
January
17.2782
17.2534
32.30
31.15
17.9800
17.9300
3.92
February
17.3355
17.3113
5.05
4.00
18.3750
18.1600
4.90
17.3902
1.0
4.0
17.3673
0.9
4.1
4.05
-
3.00
-
18.9800
5.9
12.1
18.6300
2.3
6.6
7.27
35.2
89.0
2011/12
Qtr. II
B
Qtr. III
A
March
Percentage
Changes
A/B
A/C
Source: NBE, Foreign Exchange Monitoring & Reserve Management Directorate
Fig.V. 11: Average Premium Between the Inter-Bank and Parallel Market
Exchange Rates
25.00
(Birrr/USD)
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
QI
Q II
Q III
2008/09
Third quarter 2011/12
Q IV
QI
Q II
Q III
2009/10
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
2010/11
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
2011/12
72
National Bank of Ethiopia
Source: NBE, Foreign Exchange Monitoring &
Reserve Management Directorate
During the review quarter, the average
As a result, the average spread between
buying and selling rates of foreign
the buying and selling exchange rates
exchange depreciated by 1 percent each
increased by 5.3 percent vis-à-vis same
over
while
period last year but lined slightly to 2.4
weakening by 4.1 and 4.2 percent
percent vis-à-vis the previous quarter.
against last year same period to reach
(Fig 5.13)
the
previous
quarter,
Birr 17.3204/USD and 17.6554/USD,
respectively (Table 5.15).
Fig. V.13: Average Spread between Buying and Selling Rates in the Retail Foreign Exchange
Markets
3.00
(In Percent)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III Q IV Q I Q II Q III QIV QI
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
QII QIII QIV QI
2010/11
QII QIII
2011/12
In the mean time, the average exchange
rate of 3.9 percent and 2.1 percent,
rate of the US dollar appreciated against
respectively.
Euro, Pound sterling and SDR at the rate
On quarterly basis, however,
of 4.1 percent, 1.9 percent, and 1.4
Dollar appreciated against all major
percent, respectively, on year-on-year
international currencies, the maximum
basis;
against
rate of appreciation being 2.8 percent
Japanese Yen and Swiss Frank at the
against Euro followed by 2.3 percent
while it
depreciated
the US
against Japanese Yen (Table 5.11).
Third quarter 2011/12
73
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.11: Period Average Exchange Rates (USD per Other Major International Currencies)
EURO
JAPANESE YEN
Mid
Buying
Selling
Rate
SDR
Buying
Selling
Mid
Rate
POUND STERLING
Mid
Buying
Selling
Rate
SWISS FRANK
Buying
Selling
Mid
Rate
Buying
Selling
Mid
Rate
1.3667
1.3669
1.3668
0.0122
0.0122
0.0122
1.5623
1.5620
1.5622
1.6013
1.6010
1.6011
1.0621
1.0619
1.0620
January
1.3364
1.3364
1.3364
0.0121
0.0121
0.0121
1.5448
1.5448
1.5448
1.5748
1.5748
1.5748
1.0463
1.0463
1.0463
February
1.3642
1.3649
1.3645
0.0121
0.0121
0.0121
1.5629
1.5620
1.5624
1.6120
1.6110
1.6115
1.0527
1.0521
1.0524
March
1.3995
1.3995
1.3995
0.0122
0.0122
0.0122
1.5793
1.5793
1.5793
1.6170
1.6170
1.6170
1.0874
1.0874
1.0874
1.3490
1.3490
1.3490
0.0129
0.0129
0.0129
1.5622
1.5622
1.5622
1.5723
1.5723
1.5723
1.0972
1.0972
1.0972
October
1.3685
1.3685
1.3685
0.0131
0.0131
0.0131
1.5699
1.5699
1.5699
1.5732
1.5732
1.5732
1.1130
1.1130
1.1130
November
1.3590
1.3590
1.3590
0.0129
0.0129
0.0129
1.5690
1.5697
1.5694
1.5823
1.5823
1.5823
1.1043
1.1043
1.1043
December
1.3195
1.3195
1.3195
0.0128
0.0128
0.0128
1.5477
1.5469
1.5473
1.5614
1.5614
1.5614
1.0742
1.0742
1.0742
1.3108
1.3108
1.3108
0.0126
0.0126
0.0126
1.5412
1.5403
1.5407
1.5703
1.5703
1.5703
1.0848
1.0848
1.0848
January
1.2901
1.2901
1.2901
0.0130
0.0130
0.0130
1.5341
1.5341
1.5341
1.5501
1.5501
1.5501
1.0646
1.0646
1.0646
February
1.3218
1.3218
1.3218
0.0128
0.0128
0.0128
1.5484
1.5457
1.5470
1.5796
1.5796
1.5796
1.0949
1.0949
1.0949
March
1.3206
1.3206
1.3206
0.0121
0.0121
0.0121
1.5411
1.5411
1.5411
1.5812
1.5812
1.5812
1.0948
1.0948
1.0948
-2.83
-2.83
-2.83
-2.32
-2.32
-2.32
-1.34
-1.40
-1.37
-0.13
-0.13
-0.13
-1.13
-1.13
-1.13
-4.09
-4.10
A/C
Source: Staff Compilation
-4.09
3.90
3.92
3.91
-1.35
-1.39
-1.37
-1.93
-1.91
-1.92
2.13
2.15
2.14
Period
2010/11
Qtr. II
C
2011/12
Qtr. II
B
Qtr. III
A
A/B
Percentage
change
Third quarter 2011/12
74
National Bank of Ethiopia
The Birr depreciated against all major
percent). On quarterly basis, however,
currencies except against Euro year-on-
the exchange rate of Birr appreciated
year
annual
against all major currencies except USD
depreciations being those vis-à-vis Swiss
and Pound Sterling where it slightly
Frank (1.56 percent), USD (1.32),
depreciated by 0.92 and 0.8 percent,
Japanese Yen (0.98 percent), Pound
respectively (Table 5.12).
basis,
the
highest
Sterling (0.58 percent) and SDR (0.51
Third quarter 2011/12
75
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.12: Period Average Exchange Rates (Birr per Major Currencies)
USD
EURO
JAPANESE YEN
SDR
POUND STERLING
SWISS FRANK
Buying
Selling
Mid
Rate
Buying
Selling
Mid
Rate
Buying
Selling
Mid Rate
Buying
Selling
Mid
Rate
Buying
Selling
Mid Rate
Buying
Selling
Mid
Rate
17.0827
17.2536
17.1681
22.8295
23.0578
22.9436
0.2165
0.2187
0.2176
26.5404
26.7900
26.6652
27.0228
27.2930
27.1579
18.4877
18.6727
18.5802
January
17.2506
17.4231
17.3369
22.2546
22.4771
22.3659
0.2240
0.2263
0.2252
26.4642
26.7288
26.5965
26.7410
27.0084
26.8747
18.3649
18.5488
18.4569
February
17.3086
17.4817
17.3951
22.8779
23.1066
22.9923
0.2212
0.2234
0.2223
26.8007
27.0211
26.9109
27.3410
27.6144
27.4777
18.9512
19.1407
19.0460
March
16.6890
16.8559
16.7724
23.3560
23.5895
23.4727
0.2043
0.2064
0.2054
26.3564
26.6200
26.4882
26.9865
27.2564
27.1215
18.1469
18.3284
18.2377
17.1501
17.3216
17.2358
23.1347
23.3659
23.2503
0.2218
0.2240
0.2229
26.7912
27.0586
26.9249
26.9646
27.2342
27.0994
18.8157
19.0039
18.9098
October
17.1043
17.2753
17.1898
23.4081
23.6422
23.5252
0.2233
0.2255
0.2244
26.8515
27.1201
26.9858
26.9079
27.1770
27.0425
19.0364
19.2268
19.1316
November
17.1496
17.3211
17.2353
23.3053
23.5383
23.4218
0.2213
0.2235
0.2224
26.9081
27.1892
27.0486
27.1359
27.4073
27.2716
18.9388
19.1282
19.0335
December
17.1964
17.3684
17.2824
22.6908
22.9173
22.8041
0.2208
0.2230
0.2219
26.6140
26.8665
26.7403
26.8499
27.1184
26.9842
18.4719
18.6567
18.5643
17.3080
17.4810
17.3945
22.6884
22.9152
22.8018
0.2186
0.2208
0.2197
26.6749
26.9258
26.8004
27.1795
27.4513
27.3154
18.7757
18.9635
18.8696
January
17.2506
17.4231
17.3369
22.2546
22.4771
22.3659
0.2240
0.2263
0.2252
26.4642
26.7288
26.5965
26.7410
27.0084
26.8747
18.3649
18.5488
18.4569
February
17.3086
17.4817
17.3951
22.8779
23.1066
22.9923
0.2212
0.2234
0.2223
26.8007
27.0211
26.9109
27.3410
27.6144
27.4777
18.9512
19.1407
19.0460
March
17.3647
17.5383
17.4515
22.9326
23.1620
23.0473
0.2107
0.2128
0.2117
26.7599
27.0275
26.8937
27.4566
27.7312
27.5939
19.0108
19.2010
19.1059
A/B
0.92
0.92
0.92
-1.93
-1.93
-1.93
-1.42
-1.42
-1.42
-0.43
-0.49
-0.46
0.80
0.80
0.80
-0.21
-0.21
-0.21
A/C
1.32
1.32
1.32
-0.62
-0.62
-0.62
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.58
0.58
0.58
1.56
1.56
1.56
Period
2010/11
Qtr. III
C
2011/12
Qtr. II
B
Qtr. III
A
Percentage
change
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia
Third quarter 2011/12
76
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.13: Birr per Unit of Currency End Period mid Market Rate
Mar-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
C
B
A
A/B
A/C
USD
16.8041
17.3062
17.4772
1.0
4.0
Pound
26.9605
26.6637
27.7380
4.0
2.9
Swedish Kroner
2.6490
2.4985
2.6225
5.0
-1.0
Djibouti Frank
0.0970
0.0971
0.0981
1.0
1.1
Swiss Frank
18.2198
18.3232
19.2543
5.1
5.7
Saudi Riyal
4.4806
4.6147
4.6600
1.0
4.0
UAE Dirhams
4.5752
4.7115
4.7582
1.0
4.0
Canadian Dollar
17.3238
16.8874
17.4684
3.4
0.8
Japanese Yen
0.2022
0.2223
0.2125
-4.4
5.1
Euro
23.6669
22.3337
23.2062
3.9
-1.9
SDR
26.5629
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia
26.6960
27.0375
1.3
1.8
Currency
5.8.2. Movements in the Real
Effective Exchange Rate
Accordingly,
Percentage change
year-on-year,
the
REER
appreciated by 25.1 percent in the third
quarter of 2011/12, driven by accelerated
After gradual slow down in its rate of
depreciation, annualized movement of real
effective exchange rate (REER) has trended
to appreciate since the first quarter of
2011/12, wholly an account of the steady
increase in domestic inflation.
Third quarter 2011/12
domestic inflation although the rate of
appreciation slightly declined compared to
the previous quarter. On the other hand, the
nominal effective exchange rate weakened
slightly by 2 percent against the same period
last year (Table 5.14).
77
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.14: Trends in the Real and Nominal Effective Exchange Rates
2010/11
2011/12
QIII
A
QII
B
QIII
C
Percentage Change
C/B
C/A
REERI
108.8
137.8
136.4
-1.05
25.30
NEERI
44.0
43.7
43.2
-1.28
-2.00
Source: National Bank of Ethiopia
NB:


REERI = Real Effective Exchange Rate Index, NEERI = Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Index
A decrease in the REERI and NEERI implies depreciation and vice versa.
Fig.V.14: Movements in the Real and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
0.0
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
REERI
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
NEERI
5.8.3. Volume of Transactions
The amount of foreign exchange traded
in the inter-bank foreign exchange
million between NBE and banks (Table
5.10).
market during the third quarter of
2011/12 rose to USD 41.4 million from
USD 3.0 million mark a year earlier. Of
the total foreign exchange traded in the
inter-bank market, USD 38.2 million or
92.3 percent was among commercial
banks and the remaining USD 3.2
Third quarter 2011/12
78
National Bank of Ethiopia
In the meantime, forex bureaus of
period. Their average buying and selling
commercial banks purchased about USD
exchange
32.4 million and sold USD 22.8 million
17.3204/USD and Birr 17.6554/USD,
Their
by 36.2
respectively, resulting in a 1.9 percent
percent while their sales increased by
premium between the two rates (Table
50.5 percent relative to last year same
5.15).
purchase
decreased
Third quarter 2011/12
rates
stood
at
Birr
79
National Bank of Ethiopia
Table 5.15: Amount of Foreign Exchange Purchased and Sold by Forex Bureaux of Commercial Banks
2010/11
No.
Name of Forex Bureaux
(In ‘000 of USD)
2011/12
Quarter II
B
Quarter III A
Percentage change
Quarter III
C
Purchases
Sales
Purchases
Sales
Purchases
C/B
C/A
Sales
Purchases
Sales
Purchases
Sales
1
Commercial Bank of Ethiopia
13,325.5
83.9
15,885.5
225.9
12,634.6
307.5
-20.5
36.1
-5.2
-
2
Bank of Abyssinia
1,537.5
1,205.6
1,627.9
1,507.4
1,500.0
1,866.4
-7.9
23.8
-2.4
54.8
3
Dashen Bank
4,289.0
5,074.8
4,033.6
7,985.6
4,059.1
8,427.8
0.6
5.5
-5.4
66.1
4
Awash International Bank
1,043.7
2,552.2
1,823.4
3,114.6
1,851.2
3,882.7
1.5
24.7
77.4
52.1
5
Construction & Business Bank
449.4
39.5
1,341.8
263.9
1,038.5
161.8
-22.6
-38.7
131.1
-
6
Wegagen Bank
1,640.4
1,197.8
720.9
1,170.4
643.3
1,214.9
-10.8
3.8
-60.8
1.4
7
United Bank
5,408.2
2,198.6
5,440.0
3,176.2
7,130.8
3,311.7
31.1
4.3
31.9
50.6
8
Development Bank
-
-
9
Nib International Bank
21,888.7
1,949.0
2,985.7
1,591.7
1,563.7
-64.6
-1.8
-95.2
-19.8
10
Lion International Bank
365.4
157.4
534.9
364.2
449.4
398.6
-16.0
9.5
23.0
-
11
Oromia International Bank
383.2
260.5
523.4
232.1
497.0
282.2
-5.1
21.6
29.7
8.3
12
Zemen Bank
246.4
315.8
433.9
917.5
598.6
742.7
38.0
-19.0
143.0
135.2
13
Cooperative Bank of Oromia
1.0
13.2
83.5
317.9
190.2
161.1
127.8
-49.3
-
-
14
Buna International Bank
222.9
75.7
246.1
12.6
311.7
19.1
26.6
51.9
39.8
-74.7
15
Birhan International Bank
16.2
17.3
125.5
309.9
214.8
370.5
71.1
19.6
-
-
16
Abay Bank
-
-
84.6
57.2
162.9
56.0
92.5
-2.1
17
Addis International Bank
-
-
1.1
0.5
77.2
20.9
6918.3
-
50,817.4
15,141.3
35,806.1
21,247.5
22,787.6
-9.5
7.2
-36.2
50.5
16.6389
16.9444
17.1476
17.4875
17.6554
1.0
1.0
4.1
4.2
Total
Average Exchange Rate
Source: NBE
Third quarter 2011/12
-
-
-
-
1,056.3
32,415.6
17.3204
80
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
VI. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE
Total revenue and grant collected by the
government expenditure was Birr 26.3
Federal government during the third quarter
billion, up by 31.8 percent compared with
of 2011/12 was Birr 21.5 billion which was
last year.
29.3 percent higher than a year ago.
Hence, the overall fiscal balance (including
The quarterly total revenue performance was
grants) recorded about Birr 4.78 billion in
24.0
deficit (Table 6.1)
percent
(Table 6.1).
of
the
annual
budget
On the other hand, Federal
Third quarter 2011/12
81
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
Table 6.1. Summary of Quarterly Federal Government Finance [In millions of Birr]
2010/11
No
1
Particular
Percentage
changes
2011/12
A
B
C
D
D/A
QIII
Budget
QII
QIII
Performance
Rate
D/C
D/B
Revenue and Grants
16,678.1
89,850.0
21,644.7
21,557.5
29.3
(0.4)
24.0
Total Revenue
13,293.2
79,161.4
19,725.1
19,761.9
48.7
0.2
25.0
Tax Revenue
11,522.4
70,000.0
18,847.8
17,928.5
55.6
(4.9)
25.6
Direct tax
2,258.0
18,560.6
5,985.2
3,801.0
68.3
(36.5)
20.5
Indirect tax
9,264.4
51,439.4
12,862.6
14,127.4
52.5
9.8
27.5
Non-Tax Revenue
1,770.9
9,161.4
877.3
1,833.4
3.5
109.0
20.0
Grant & Relief
3,384.9
10,688.7
1,919.6
1,795.5
(47.0)
(6.5)
16.8
2
Current Expenditure
3,487.7
21,534.9
5,306.7
4,258.3
22.1
(19.8)
19.8
3
Current Surplus/Deficit
(Including Grants)
13,190.4
68,315.1
16,338.0
17,299.2
31.2
5.9
25.3
(Excluding Grants)
1.1
1.2
9,805.5
57,626.4
14,418.4
15,503.6
58.1
7.5
26.9
4
Capital Expenditure
9,662.1
38,111.5
10,495.1
8,977.4
(7.1)
(14.5)
23.6
5
6,829.2
45,555.8
10,578.6
13,102.7
91.9
23.9
28.8
6
Regional Transfers
Total Expenditure
(2+4+5)
19,979.0
105,202.3
26,380.4
26,338.3
31.8
(0.2)
25.0
7
Overall Surplus/Deficit
(Including Grants)
(3,300.9)
(15,352.3)
(4,735.7)
(4,780.9)
44.8
1.0
31.1
(Excluding Grants)
(6,685.8)
(26,040.9)
(6,655.3)
(6,576.4)
(1.6)
(1.2)
25.3
3,300.9
15,352.3
4,735.7
4,780.9
44.8
1.0
31.1
2,571.9
5,377.5
1,725.3
838.3
(67.4)
(51.4)
15.6
2,697.7
6,562.6
2,174.1
987.0
(63.4)
(54.6)
15.0
125.8
1,185.1
448.8
148.7
18.3
(66.9)
12.6
(2,758.8)
9,974.7
58.8
2,580.9
(193.6)
4,289.3
25.9
(3,428.8)
0.0
(1,724.8)
238.8
(107.0)
(113.8)
Non-Bank Sources
670.0
0.0
1,783.6
2,342.1
249.6
31.3
8.3
Privatization receipts
85.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
(100.0)
8.4
Others and Residuals
3,402.7
0.0
2,951.6
1,361.7
(60.0)
8
8.1
8.2
Total Financing
Net External
Borrowings
External
Borrowing
Amortization
Net Domestic
Borrowings
Banking System
(53.9)
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
Third quarter 2011/12
82
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
6.1. Revenue and Grants
During the review period, Birr 21.55 billion
revenue was mobilized of which Birr 19.76
billion (91.67 percent) was from domestic
sources and the rest (Birr 1.79 million or
8.33 percent) from grants & relief. In
contrast to last year domestic revenue
increased by 48.7 percent while grants fell
by 47 percent during the review quarter.
Third quarter 2011/12
Tax revenue, which contributed 90.7 percent
to domestic revenue, reached Birr 17.92
billion showing 55.6 annual growth. The
yearly increment in tax revenue was mainly
due to government’s effort to broaden the
tax base and enhance tax collection. Non-tax
revenue comprising 9.27 percent of the total
domestic revenue improved to Birr 1.8
billion (Table 6.2).
83
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
Table 6.2: Summary of Federal Government Revenue by Component
(In Millions of Birr)
2010/11
No
1
1.1
1.1.1
Particulars
Total Revenue
and Grants
Total Domestic
Revenue
Tax Revenue
Direct Tax
Revenue
2
3
4
QII
QIII
A
B
C
D
[D/A]
[D/C]
Performance
Rate
[D/B]
16,678.10
89,850.04
21,644.73
21,557.47
29.26
(0.40)
23.99
13,293.23
79,161.37
19,725.09
19,761.92
48.66
0.19
24.96
11,522.36
70,000.00
18,847.82
17,928.48
55.60
(4.88)
25.61
5,985.23
3,801.04
Income Taxes
1,499.24
16,305.17
-Personal
400.75
- Business
1,098.49
1.2
1.2.2
Budget
18,560.59
Others1
Percentage change
QIII
2,258.00
1.1.2
1.2.1
2011/12
2,468.99
13,836.17
68.34
(36.49)
20.48
5,470.01
2,934.84
95.76
(46.35)
18.00
719.04
478.56
19.42
(33.45)
19.38
4,750.97
2,456.28
123.61
(48.30)
17.75
758.76
2,255.43
515.22
866.20
14.16
68.12
38.41
Indirect Taxes
Domestic
Taxes
Foreign Trade
Taxes
9,264.36
51,439.41
12,862.59
14,127.44
52.49
9.83
27.46
3,156.78
18,539.46
3,898.07
4,810.69
52.39
23.41
25.95
6,107.58
32,899.94
8,964.52
9,316.76
52.54
3.93
28.32
- Import
Non-Tax
Revenue
6,107.58
32,899.94
8,964.52
9,316.76
52.54
3.93
28.32
Privatization
Grants and
Relief
1,770.87
9,161.37
877.27
85.09
-
3,384.87
10,688.67
1,919.63
1,833.44
3.53
-
(100.00)
1,795.55
(46.95)
108.99
20.01
(6.46)
16.80
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
1/ includes Withholding tax on import, tax on dividend,royality and interest income
Third quarter 2011/12
84
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
Fig. VI.1. Quarterly Developments in Major Components of
Domestic Revenue of the Federal Government
25000.00
Million Birr
20000.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
Q.3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
0.00
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06 Years/
2006/07
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Quarters
Total Domestic Revenue
Indirect Taxes
Tax Revenue
Non -Tax Revenue
Direct tax revenue grew 68.34 percent to
businesses.
Birr 3.8 billion, due to 95.76 percent
77.21 percent of the direct tax.
2010/11
Direct Tax Revenue
Income tax constituted
annual rise in income tax, mainly from
Third quarter 2011/12
2011/12
85
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
Looking at the source of tax revenue, the
Revenue from indirect taxes revenue
about 78.8 percent of domestic tax
also went up 52.5 percent to Br 14.12
revenue
taxes
billion due to better revenue collection
followed by direct taxes (21.20 percent)
from domestic and foreign trade taxes.
was
from
indirect
(Fig VI.2).
Fig.VI.2 Domestic Revenue by Major Components
During the Thrid Quarter of 2011/12
Non-Tax
Revenue
4.5%
Direct Tax
Revenue
30.3%
Indirect Taxes
65.2%
7.2. Expenditure
Under the review quarter, total Federal
percent compared to a year ago, as a
government
result of lower expenditure on economic
expenditures
(including
regional transfers) stood at Birr 26.33
and general development (Table 6.3).
billion, showing 31.83 percent annual
Of the total expenditures during the
growth on account of higher current
stated period 49.74 percent went to
expenditure and regional transfers.
regional transfers followed by capital
Mean while, capital expenditure, which
(34.08 percent) and current expenditure
amounted to Birr 8.97 billion fell by 7.1
(16.18 percent).
Third quarter 2011/12
86
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
Table 6.3. Summary of Federal Government
2010/11
No
1
2
3
Expenditure by Component
(In Millions Of Birr)
2011/12
Percentage Change
QIII
Budget
QII
QIII
[A]
[B]
[C]
[D]
Total Expenditure
19,978.98
105,202.30
26,380.39
26,338.32
Current Expenditure
3,487.73
21,534.95
5,306.69
4,258.27
- General Services
- Economic
Services
2,012.38
9,643.05
3,351.79
2,431.41
143.79
1,495.89
210.25
- Social Services
835.44
5,367.26
- Debt Service
496.11
Capital Expenditure
- Economic
Development
- Social
Development
- General
Development
Regional Transfers
Particulars
[D/A]
[D/C]
[D/B]
31.83
(0.16)
25.04
22.09
(19.76)
19.77
20.82
(27.46)
25.21
207.58
44.36
(1.27)
13.88
1,152.05
1,108.60
32.70
(3.77)
20.65
5,028.75
592.60
510.68
2.94
(13.82)
10.16
9,662.05
38,111.55
10,495.07
8,977.36
(7.09)
(14.46)
23.56
7,673.20
27,958.15
8,108.84
6,573.76
(14.33)
(18.93)
23.51
1,833.53
9,259.18
2,232.00
2,265.05
23.53
1.48
24.46
155.32
894.22
154.23
138.55
(10.80)
(10.17)
15.49
6,829.20
45,555.80
10,578.64
13,102.69
23.86
28.76
91.86
Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Development
Third quarter 2011/12
Perf.
Rate
87
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
Third quarter 2011/12
88
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
6.3. Deficit Financing
The
Federal
government
fiscal
The deficit was financed by net external
operations (including grants) depicted an
borrowing, net domestic borrowing and
overall deficit of Birr 4.78 billion which
others.
was 45% higher than that of a year ago.
Fig. VI.5 Federal Government Finance During Thrid Quarter of F.Y 2011/12
50000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
(In Millions of Birr)
45000
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Quarters/Years
Revenue Including Grants
Third quarter 2011/12
Deficit
Expenditure
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NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
VII. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
7.1. Overview of the World Economy1/
The recovery of the world economy remains
fragile. The information that has become
available over the past few months confirms
that there has been a gradual pick-up in
global activity.
provisional
For
the OECD area,
estimates
show
moderating somewhat on account of past
policy tightening and weaker internal and
external demand, it remains solid overall,
thereby contributing significantly to global
economic growth.
In all major non-euro area advanced
that–amid
economies – with the exception of the
continued divergence–quarterly GDP grew
United Kingdom – there has been further
by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2011/12 F.Y.,
up from 0.3% in the previous quarter. In the
third quarter, global activity was temporarily
supported by improving global financial
conditions,
which
have
nevertheless
evidence of a modest expansion in overall
economic activity. At the global level,
growth
in
industrial
production
also
rebounded in the third quarter of 2011/12
F.Y.
deteriorated in recent weeks amid concerns
about certain euro area economies. The
Consistent with global activity, world trade
weakness in the labour and housing markets
picked up modestly in the third quarter of
in major advanced economies as well as the
2011/12
need to repair balance sheets are likely to
increased by 1.6% in the first quarter
continue to act as an impediment to the pace
(quarter on quarter), after stalling in the
of growth in the global economy. While a
second quarter of 2011/12 F.Y. This
rebalancing of private sector indebtedness is
recovery was supported by fairly buoyant
progressing, the debt levels of households
growth in major emerging market regions,
remain elevated in a number of major
partly reflecting a normalization of supply-
advanced
chain
economies,
economies.
while
In
growth
emerging
has
been
F.Y.
linkages,
World
which
trade
were
in
goods
disrupted
following the floods in Thailand. At the
same time, external trade dynamics in the
1/
Section 7.1 excerpted from European Central Bank, June 2012
monthly bulletin while others are taken from May 2012.
Third quarter 2011/12
main advanced economies remained rather
94
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
sluggish. The latest survey indicators point
picking up. On the other hand, private
towards some loss in momentum of global
investment contributed negatively to growth,
trade in the near term.
as both private business and residential
In the United States, the expansion in
investment fell on a quarterly basis. Net
economic activity is proceeding at a
exports of goods and services contributed
moderate pace. Real GDP increased at an
modestly to growth, with solid growth in
annual rate of 1.9% (0.5% quarter on
exports reflecting to some extent the
quarter) in the first quarter of 2012, down
recovery from the supply-side disruptions
from 3% in the previous quarter. Growth in
caused by the floods in Thailand.
the first quarter was primarily supported by
personal consumption expenditures, which
were in part financed via a drawdown of the
personal saving rate, given subdued income
growth. Survey-based indicators and highfrequency data point to an ongoing moderate
expansion in the fourth quarter of 2011/12.
In the United Kingdom, Real GDP declined
by 0.3% quarter on quarter in the third
quarter
of
2011/12
F.Y.,
with
both
investment and household consumption
making a negative contribution to growth.
The labour market situation has shown signs
of stabilization, but the unemployment rate
In Japan, real GDP growth expanded by 1%
is still relatively high (8.2% on average in
quarter on quarter in the third quarter of
the three months to March) and employment
2011/12 F.Y., after stagnating in the
growth has been subdued. Looking ahead,
previous quarter. The main contributions to
the economic recovery is likely to gather
growth came from private consumption and
pace only gradually, as domestic demand is
public spending, together with changes in
expected to remain constrained by tight
private inventories. Private consumption
credit
increased by 1.1%, partly reflecting the
balance sheet adjustments and substantial
reintroduction of government incentives to
fiscal tightening.
conditions,
ongoing
household
purchase environmentally-friendly cars as
well as pent-up demand, while the strength
in public spending mainly reflected robust
growth in public investment, confirming that
reconstruction-related public spending is
Within non-euro area EU countries, the
recovery of economic activity in Sweden
and Denmark gained some momentum after
fading in the second quarter of 2011/12 F.Y.
In Sweden, real GDP increased by 0.8%
Third quarter 2011/12
94
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
quarter on quarter in the third quarter of
headwinds was partly offset by resilient
2011/12 F.Y. and in Denmark by 0.3%,
consumption.
driven
by domestic
demand
in
both
countries. In the largest central and eastern
European
(CEE)
countries,
economic
activity has been weak recently. In the third
quarter of 2011/12 F.Y., real GDP declined
in the Czech Republic, Hungary and
Romania by 1%, 1.3% and 0.1% quarter on
quarter,
respectively,
while
growth
continued in Poland (0.8%). Overall, the
economic outlook has stabilized somewhat
in the largest CEE countries after worsening
during the winter; however, the recovery is
likely to be very gradual, and the situation
varies from country to country. Weak
foreign demand, sluggish recovery in labour
markets and ongoing fiscal consolidation are
likely to weigh on activity in the short term.
In China, real GDP growth decelerated to
8.1% year on year in the first quarter of
2012, down from 8.9% in the second quarter
of
2011/12
F.Y.
External
conditions
remained weak, mainly on account of
sluggish demand from the euro area.
Accordingly, export growth fell to 8.9%
year on year in the first quarter and to 4.9%
year on year by end-April. The current
account surplus declined to 1.4% of GDP in
the third quarter of 2011/12 F.Y., from 2.7%
in 2010/11 F.Y. Domestic demand growth
also slowed, with data indicating an
increasing role for consumption as the main
source of growth. The property sector
appears to be cooling off on account of the
tightening policies, although the authorities’
In emerging Asia, economic activity slowed
social
housing
program
is
partially
in the third quarter of 2011/12 F.Y., led by
compensating for lower private sector
weakening exports and investment. Export
investment.
growth moderated in the first quarter,
mainly reflecting sluggish demand from
Europe, while investment remained weak as
a result of a heightened volatility of capital
flows and the lagged effects of a tightening
of domestic monetary policies. Nonetheless,
the
adverse
impact
from
the
global
In India, real GDP growth moderated to
5.6%, year on year, in the third quarter of
2011/12 F.Y. (from 6.2% in the second
quarter
of
2011/12
F.Y.).
Private
consumption growth decelerated to 6.1%,
while growth in investment and exports
accelerated to 3.6% and 18.1%, respectively.
In Korea, real GDP growth moderated to
Third quarter 2011/12
95
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
2.8%, year on year, in the third quarter of
countries, high oil prices persisted in the
2011/12 F.Y., compared with 3.4% in the
third quarter of 2011/12 F.Y. and supported
second quarter of 2011/12 F.Y. Net exports
economic activity in the oil-exporting
contributed significantly to the deceleration,
countries. In addition to higher oil output,
while growth in investment and government
expansionary fiscal policies and stronger
expenditure accelerated to 5.1% and 4.4%,
private consumption contributed to growth.
respectively.
In response to the heightened uncertainty
about global oil supply in recent months,
In the group of the ASEAN-5 countries
(Indonesia,
Singapore
Malaysia,
and
the
Philippines,
Thailand),
Indonesia’s
economy continued to grow strongly by
6.3% year on year in the third quarter of
2011/12 F.Y., on account of resilient
investment and private consumption. GDP
growth
in
Malaysia
and
Singapore
decelerated to 4.7% and 1.6% respectively,
year on year, in the first quarter, driven
mainly by net exports and government
expenditure. Economic activity in Thailand
Saudi Arabia held production at a very high
level. Moreover, the economy continued to
gain momentum, not only on account of
strong oil exports but also on account of
robust
consumer
demand
and
public
spending. Elsewhere in the region, with a
few
exceptions,
strong
economic
performance also continued, despite the
weaker external environment. The factors
that supported growth were still strong (nonoil)
commodity
prices
and
generally
accommodative macroeconomic policies.
rebounded to 0.4% year on year in the third
quarter of 2011/12 F.Y. from the significant
The economic activity in Brazil cooled
contraction (-8.9% year on year) in the
down at the start of the third quarter,
second quarter of 2011/12 F.Y., following
following a trend that started in late 2009/10
the worst floods in recent history. Looking
F.Y. Real GDP grew by 0.7% year on year
ahead, emerging Asia’s economic growth is
in the third quarter of 2011/12 F.Y., from a
expected to remain resilient, with subdued
peak of 9.1% at the start of the second half
external demand being compensated for by
of 2009/10 F.Y. and an average of 2.7% in
solid private consumption.
2011. The slowdown was particularly
pronounced in the manufacturing sector in
Despite the strong gains in oil production in
the second half of last year, followed by a
a number of Middle East and Africa
Third quarter 2011/12
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NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
significant decline at the start of 2012. In
September 2011. Base effects reflecting the
Argentina, indicators of economic activity
annual rate of change in the energy
also showed increasing signs of a slowdown
component of consumer price indices partly
after the exceptionally high growth rates
account for this. Annual inflation excluding
recorded over the past two years. Indeed,
food and energy remained at 1.9% in March,
real GDP growth stood at 7% in the fourth
unchanged from the previous few months. In
quarter of 2011, having stood at rates of
emerging economies, inflation rates have
around 10% in many previous quarters. Real
declined
GDP growth in Mexico, increased to 4.7%
pressures are greater in view of tighter
in the first quarter of 2012, compared with
capacity buffers.
lately,
although
inflationary
3.9% in the last quarter of 2011. Growth was
supported by favourable labour market
developments, external demand from the
United States and, more generally, gains in
competitiveness.
Looking
ahead,
the
expected improvement in global demand
should support growth dynamics in the
region. Domestic demand is anticipated to
be the main engine of growth, while southsouth trade dynamics are expected to
support export growth.
Annual CPI inflation in United States
slowed
further
to
2.7%
in
March,
representing more than a full percentage
point decline from its peak of 3.9% in
September 2011. The deceleration reflects
the continued easing in the annual rate of
change in energy prices, partly owing to
base effects, and to a lesser extent in food
prices. Excluding food and energy, annual
inflation edged up to 2.3% in March, from
2.2% in the previous month. Shelter costs,
which have been recovering from negative
7.2. Inflation Developments
annual rates of change in 2010, have more
Global inflation has eased in recent months
recently steadied to a pace consistent with
and inflationary dynamics remain contained
annual increases of close to 2%.
in advanced economies. In March, annual
headline inflation in the OECD area
moderated to 2.7%, compared with 2.8% in
the previous month, continuing the gradual
decline from its peak of 3.3% recorded in
In Japan, annual CPI inflation edged up in
March to 0.5% (from 0.3% in the previous
month), owing to a large extent to increases
in energy prices and some technical factors.
Annual CPI inflation excluding fresh food
Third quarter 2011/12
97
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
also increased from 0.1% in February to
0.2% in March, while the annual rate of
change of CPI inflation excluding food and
Consumer price inflation in several Middle
East and Africa countries was slightly higher
in the first three months of 2012 compared
energy remained at -0.5%.
with the previous quarter. In Saudi Arabia,
The annual CPI inflation in United Kingdom
consumer price inflation increased to 5.4%
increased to 3.5% in March from 3.4% in
year on year in the first quarter of 2012,
February, while CPI inflation excluding
from 5.2% in the previous quarter, driven by
energy and unprocessed food remained
food prices. In most oil-importing countries,
unchanged at 2.9%. Inflation is likely to
inflation remained stable in the first quarter
decline slightly further in the short term. In
of 2012.
the longer term, the weak economic outlook
and the existence of spare capacity will
In Brazil, inflationary pressures, albeit
probably contribute to a further dampening
declining, remain elevated, with annual
of inflationary pressures.
inflation standing at 5.7% in the first quarter
of 2012. Annual CPI inflation in Argentina
In emerging Asia, annual inflation rates
moderated further in the first quarter of
2012, owing to the weak economic activity
and the stabilization of global commodity
prices. In the light of decreasing inflationary
pressures
and
downside
risks
to
remained close to double-digit levels in the
first quarter of 2012 while annual consumer
price inflation in Mexico, stood at somewhat
higher levels than in the preceding quarters,
averaging 3.8% in the first quarter of 2012.
the
economic outlook, some central banks in the
7.3. Commodity Market
region recently took measures to ease
Oil prices declined in April 2012. Brent
monetary policy. Annual CPI inflation in
crude oil prices stood at USD 119.5 per
China picked up moderately to 3.6% in
barrel on 2 May 2012, which is 3% lower
March, from 3.2% in February, on account
than at the beginning of April, but still
of a temporary increase in food prices.
11.1% higher than at the beginning of the
Nonetheless, for the first time since October
year. Looking ahead, market participants
2010, the CPI inflation rate stayed below the
expect lower oil prices in the medium term,
authorities’
with futures contracts for December 2013
4%
target
consecutive month.
Third quarter 2011/12
for
a
second
trading at USD 109.2 per barrel.
98
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
index for non-energy commodities (in US
The recent decline reflects a combination of
factors. First, there have been some concerns
among market participants about the global
dollar terms) was about 6.5% higher towards
the end of April than at the beginning of the
year.
economic outlook, as recent macroeconomic
data releases in several major economies
were mixed. Moreover, the first quarter of
this year saw the first signs of easing market
fundamentals in more than two years,
according
to
the
International
Energy
Agency’s latest Oil Market Report. This was
mainly due to robust growth in OPEC
supply alongside relatively sluggish oil
demand, while there was a more mixed
performance in non-OPEC supply. Finally,
market
strategic
speculation
stock
about
release,
a
potential
together
with
7.4. Exchange Rate Developments
Between the end of January and early May
2012 the effective exchange rate of the euro
remained
broadly
unchanged
in
an
environment of steadily declining volatility.
On 2 May 2012, the nominal effective
exchange rate of the euro, as measured
against the currencies of 20 of the euro
area’s most important trading partners, was
close to the level prevailing at the end of
January 2012 and 4.4% below its average
level in 2011.
assurances by Saudi Arabia that it will
maintain a stable oil supply, appear to have
In bilateral terms, over the past three
increased market confidence in the ability of
months, the euro has been broadly stable
suppliers to compensate smoothly for a
against major currencies. Between 31
future decline in Iranian oil exports.
January and
2
May
2012
the
euro
depreciated against the US dollar by 0.3%,
On aggregate, prices of non-oil commodities
were broadly flat in April. While metal
prices were negatively affected mainly by
concerns about global growth, food prices
increased, on aggregate, as a result of further
strong supply-driven increases in the prices
of oilseeds and oils. By contrast, prices of
cereals and of beverages, sugar and tobacco
amid fluctuations that reflected changes in
market
sentiment
with
regard
to
developments in some euro area sovereign
debt markets. The euro also depreciated
slightly against the Swiss franc and the
Chinese renminbi. Over the same horizon,
the euro depreciated more strongly against
the pound sterling by 2.8%, but appreciated
declined further. On aggregate, the price
Third quarter 2011/12
99
NATIONL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
significantly against the Japanese yen by
trade and investments. Accordingly, total
4.7%,
merchandise export proceeds rose only by
amid
continued
the
Japanese
commitment
to
authorities’
contain
the
7.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter
appreciation of the Japanese yen. Vis-à-vis
of 2011/12 (38.1 percent quarter-to-quarter)
other European currencies, the euro broadly
despite lower volume of major export
depreciated over the period under review, in
products. In particular, total receipts from
particular against the Czech koruna, the
service exports mainly from travelers and
Polish zloty and the Hungarian forint.
individual cash remittances via the banking
Market volatility, as measured on the basis
system contracted during the same period.
of foreign exchange option prices, has
However, FDI continued to involve in
continued to decline since the end of
various sector of the economy as witnessed
January and currently stands below long-
by the surge in estimated import of capital
term average levels for most currency pairs.
and
other
goods
related
to
foreign
investments.
7.5.
Impact of
Global
Economic
Developments on Ethiopian Economy
On the other hand, the rise in international
oil price relative to last year same period
The external sector of Ethiopia depicted
accounted largely for strong growth of total
slow down during the review period largely
fuel import bills which utilized more than
in response of the global development in
two-third of the total export revenue earned
particular to the economic activities of
during the same period while the global
advanced countries to which the Ethiopia
developments importantly exerted a pressure
economy is relatively integrated in terms of
on balance of payments development
Third quarter 2011/12
100