A
1 Prepared by FinDynamics.com
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Valuation Model for Company:
HARLEY DAVIDSON INC
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
Income Statement
Starting Year
Period
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
Circuit Breaker: ON
Circuit Breaker: OFF
2
HOG
2009
Y
Assumptions
2009
Years
2010
Averages
2010-2012
Most Recent
Value Used
2011
2012
-2.58%
37.98%
11.63%
-4.87%
6.01%
-1.77%
5.02%
10.45%
6.01%
-1.77%
6.01%
10.45%
65.82%
-3.93%
21.00%
-39.17%
66.63%
-15.78%
19.97%
-66.87%
65.20%
-14.60%
19.91%
-40.35%
66%
-11%
20%
-49%
65.20%
-14.60%
19.91%
-40.35%
66%
0%
20%
0%
Depreciation of Assets
3.60%
2.53%
2.43%
2.85%
2.43%
2.43%
Interest and tax rates:
Interest earned on cash
Interest rate on debt
Tax Rate
0.41%
2.09%
33.50%
1.27%
1.08%
30.86%
3.53%
1.12%
35.11%
1.74%
1.43%
33.15%
3.53%
1.12%
35.11%
1.74%
1.43%
33.15%
Dividend Payout Ratio
63.49%
18.48%
22.55%
34.84%
23%
23%
62.66%
41.44%
110.39%
81.19%
50.81%
96.62%
69.22%
26.93%
91.75%
71%
40%
100%
69.22%
26.93%
91.75%
69%
40%
92%
2011
2012
2013
2014
Projected
2015
2016
2017
Revenue growth rate:
Sales of Goods
Financial Services
Cost margins and growth rates:
Cost of Sales
Financial Services Costs
SG&A
Other Costs
Balance sheet items:
Current Assets Excluding Cash/Revenue
Current Liabilities/Revenue
Net Total Fixed Assets/Revenue
2009
Actual
2010
CAGR
2009-2012
2012-2017
Generic TIDs
Revenue
SalesRevenueGoodsNet
FinancialServicesRevenue
[Revenue]
Check
4,287,130,000
494,779,000
4,781,909,000
OK
4,176,627,000
682,709,000
4,859,336,000
OK
4,662,264,000
649,449,000
5,311,713,000
OK
4,942,582,000
637,924,000
5,580,506,000
OK
5,239,754,082
704,557,852
5,944,311,934
5,554,793,596
778,151,890
6,332,945,487
5,888,774,819
859,433,137
6,748,207,956
6,242,836,618
949,204,552
7,192,041,170
6,618,186,336
1,048,352,970
7,666,539,305
4.86%
8.84%
5.28%
6.01%
10.45%
6.56%
Costs and expenses
[Cost of Revenue]
FinancingInterestExpense
[Selling, General & Administrative Expense]
Other Costs
[Total Expense]
2,900,934,000
283,634,000
979,384,000
421,871,000
4,585,823,000
2,749,224,000
272,484,000
1,020,371,000
256,626,000
4,298,705,000
3,106,288,000
229,492,000
1,060,943,000
85,023,000
4,481,746,000
3,222,394,000
195,990,000
1,111,232,000
50,714,000
4,580,330,000
3,452,068,192
195,990,000
1,206,389,268
50,714,000
4,905,161,460
3,659,623,331
195,990,000
1,285,261,869
50,714,000
5,191,589,200
3,879,657,695
195,990,000
1,369,538,770
50,714,000
5,495,900,465
4,112,921,595
195,990,000
1,459,614,061
50,714,000
5,819,239,656
4,360,210,456
195,990,000
1,555,912,752
50,714,000
6,162,827,208
3.57%
-11.59%
4.30%
-50.65%
6.23%
0.00%
6.96%
0.00%
Depreciation
246,344,000
255,171,000
180,408,000
168,978,000
175,911,364
188,720,414
202,424,579
217,088,072
232,779,988
-11.81%
6.62%
[Operating Income]
Check
196,086,000
OK
560,631,000
OK
829,967,000
OK
1,000,176,000
OK
1,039,150,474
1,141,356,286
1,252,307,491
1,372,801,514
1,503,712,097
72.14%
8.50%
[Interest Income]
[Interest Expense]
[Earnings Before Taxes]
4,254,000
21,680,000
178,660,000
5,442,000
90,357,000
390,469,000
7,963,000
45,266,000
792,664,000
7,369,000
46,033,000
961,512,000
10,072,542
62,586,494
986,636,522
17,717,462
62,586,494
1,096,487,254
19,621,334
62,586,494
1,209,342,331
22,004,015
62,586,494
1,332,219,035
24,917,300
62,586,494
1,466,042,904
20.10%
28.53%
75.24%
27.59%
6.34%
8.80%
Applied Corporate Finance (FINE 648)
SM_Setup
A
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
[Income Taxes]
IncomeLossFromContinuingOperations
Check
108,019,000
70,641,000
OK
130,800,000
259,669,000
OK
244,586,000
548,078,000
OK
337,587,000
623,925,000
OK
327,117,344
659,519,178
363,538,132
732,949,122
400,955,005
808,387,326
441,694,527
890,524,507
486,063,561
979,979,343
46.20%
106.71%
7.56%
9.45%
Earnings (loss) per common share
[Number of Shares]
[EPS Basic]
[Dividends per share]
234,304,383
-0.24
0.40
235,521,693
0.63
0.40
230,497,185
2.57
0.475
226,249,774
2.75
0.62
226,249,774
2.92
0.66
226,249,774
3.24
0.73
226,249,774
3.57
0.81
226,249,774
3.94
0.89
226,249,774
4.33
0.98
-1.16%
-325.44%
15.73%
0.00%
9.51%
9.51%
2011
2012
2013
2014
Projected
2015
2016
2017
2009
Actual
2010
CAGR
2009-2012
2012-2017
Balance Sheet
Generic TIDs
Assets
[Cash & Cash Equivalents]
Current Assets Excluding Cash
[Current Assets]
1,630,433,000
2,711,516,000
4,341,949,000
1,021,933,000
3,044,693,000
4,066,626,000
229,655,000
4,312,551,000
4,542,206,000
188,008,000
3,862,928,000
4,050,936,000
971,644,566
4,114,761,101
5,086,405,666
1,068,168,296
4,383,780,332
5,451,948,628
1,190,837,491
4,671,232,584
5,862,070,075
1,342,486,541
4,978,462,027
6,320,948,568
1,526,244,328
5,306,918,288
6,833,162,615
-51.33%
8.26%
-2.29%
52.02%
6.56%
11.02%
Fixed Assets
Fixed Assets at Cost
[Accumulated Depreciation of PP&E]
[Net Total Fixed Assets+]
[Assets]
Check
6,865,753,000
2,052,184,000
4,813,569,000
9,155,518,000
OK
7,320,940,000
1,956,826,000
5,364,114,000
9,430,740,000
OK
6,927,868,000
1,795,910,000
5,131,958,000
9,674,164,000
OK
6,989,217,000
1,869,380,000
5,119,837,000
9,170,773,000
OK
7,498,902,234
2,045,291,364
5,453,610,870
10,540,016,536
8,044,174,624
2,234,011,778
5,810,162,846
11,262,111,474
8,627,581,887
2,436,436,357
6,191,145,530
12,053,215,604
9,251,864,883
2,653,524,430
6,598,340,453
12,919,289,021
9,919,973,335
2,886,304,418
7,033,668,918
13,866,831,533
0.60%
-3.06%
2.08%
0.06%
7.25%
9.08%
6.56%
8.62%
Liabilities and Shareholder`s Equity
[Total Current Liabilities]
[Total Long Term Debt+]
[Long Term Liabilities Excluding Debt+]
StockholdersEquity
[Liabilities & Equity]
2,268,224,000
4,114,039,000
665,137,000
2,108,118,000
9,155,518,000
2,013,782,000
4,520,591,000
689,501,000
2,206,866,000
9,430,740,000
2,698,618,000
3,843,886,000
711,404,000
2,420,256,000
9,674,164,000
1,503,082,000
4,370,544,000
739,523,000
2,557,624,000
9,170,773,000
2,361,497,954
4,370,544,000
739,523,000
3,068,451,582
10,540,016,536
2,515,890,481
4,370,544,000
739,523,000
3,636,153,993
11,262,111,474
2,680,861,883
4,370,544,000
739,523,000
4,262,286,722
12,053,215,604
2,857,183,590
4,370,544,000
739,523,000
4,952,038,431
12,919,289,021
3,045,687,556
4,370,544,000
739,523,000
5,711,076,977
13,866,831,533
-12.82%
2.04%
3.60%
6.65%
0.06%
15.17%
0.00%
0.00%
17.43%
8.62%
OK
OK
OK
OK
Check
OK
OK
OK
OK
Whole Balance Sheet Check
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
659,519,178
175,911,364
858,415,954
-251,833,101
-509,685,234
41,836,068
-6,733,011
967,431,220
732,949,122
188,720,414
154,392,527
-269,019,231
-545,272,390
41,836,068
-11,843,273
291,763,237
808,387,326
202,424,579
164,971,402
-287,452,252
-583,407,263
41,836,068
-13,115,920
333,643,940
890,524,507
217,088,072
176,321,707
-307,229,443
-624,282,996
41,836,068
-14,708,628
379,549,288
979,979,343
232,779,988
188,503,966
-328,456,261
-668,108,453
41,836,068
-16,656,020
429,878,632
2013
2014
Projected
2015
2016
2017
967,431,220
-
291,763,237
-
333,643,940
-
379,549,288
-
429,878,632
21,382,900,902
105
106 FCF Calculation
107
108 Net Income (Loss)
109 Add Back Depreciation
110 Add Back Increase In Current Liabilities
111 Substract Increase In Current Assets Excluding Cash
112 Substract Increase In Fixed Assets At Cost
113 Add Back After-Tax Interest Expense
114 Substract The After-Tax Interest On Cash
115
Free Cash Flow To Firm FCFF
116
117
118
119
120
121 FCF Calculation
122
123 Estimated Free Cash Flow To Firm
124 Terminal Value
Applied Corporate Finance (FINE 648)
Projected
DCF Valuation
WACC
Long-Term
Growth Rate
8.7%
6.6%
SM_Setup
A
B
967,431,220
Total Cash Flow
128 Per Share Equity Valuation
129
130 PV Of Future CF And Terminal Value
131 Add Initial Cash
132 Firm Value
133 Substract Current Debt
134 Equity Value
135 Number of Shares (Basic)
136
137 [Share Price (Period End)]
138 Per Share Equity Valuation
139 Current Share Price (Today)
140
141
142 Sensitivity Analysis
143
144 Sales of Goods Growth
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
C
291,763,237
D
333,643,940
F
21,812,779,534
2012
$52.76
$52.42
$64.95
Estimate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
6.01%
Long-Term FCF Growth
G
H
I
J
K
L
Sensitivity Analysis for Share Price
16,042,091,092
188,008,000
16,230,099,092
-4,370,544,000
11,859,555,092
226,249,774
Current price
$52.42
$25.32
$26.83
$28.80
$31.47
$35.31
$41.34
$52.23
$77.88
$64.95
$64.95
$64.95
$64.95
$64.95
$64.95
$64.95
$64.95
$64.95
$52.42
0%
1%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
6%
14.35
19.36
26.89
64.51
$
$
$
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Sales of Goods (Annual growth rate)
Valuation Model
Share Price
Applied Corporate Finance (FINE 648)
E
379,549,288
Share price, $
125
126
127
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
N/A
N/A
WACC
7%
9.83 $
13.28 $
18.11 $
37.44 $
134.07 $
N/A
N/A
N/A
8%
6.44
8.93
12.26
23.90
58.81
$
$
$
$
$
$
N/A
N/A
9%
3.80
5.67
8.08
15.77
33.72
123.45
$
$
$
$
$
$
Market
6%
7%
Last year growth
10%
1.70
3.14
4.94
10.35
21.16
53.61
N/A
N/A
SM_Setup