Financial Institutions l Sri Lanka Credit Analysis Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC Rating Rationale Ratings Current Ratings · The rating of Lanka ORIX Leasing Company PLC (LOLC) reflects its strong financial profile and established customer franchise in the leasing industry. Fitch Ratings Lanka also takes comfort from LOLC’s association with ORIX Corporation of Japan (ORIX) which has held 30% of its equity since inception. Nevertheless, the relative lack of diversity in LOLC’s funding is a constraint. · LOLC’s lending portfolio grew at a pace of 40.3% during the 12 months ending 31 March 2007 (FY07), compared to an average growth rate of 16.3% for the specialised leasing company (SLC) sector. Loan growth continued at a high annualised pace of 33.8% during the three months ending 30 June 2007 (Q108) in contrast to the slowdown witnessed across the leasing industry. · The high loan growth was supported by access to credit lines from multilateral donor agencies ‐ a significant advantage that the company enjoys whereas other local SLCs have to rely more on local institutional borrowings. As at FYE07, 16.1% of the group’s assets were funded by such credit lines (17.3% at FYE06). · LOLC’s gross non‐performing loans (NPLs, defined by Fitch as loans in arrears for over three months) increased in nominal terms during FY07 and Q108, as experienced across the sector. The gross NPL ratio increased to 2.8% and 5.6% at FYE07 and Q108 respectively, from 1.7% at FYE06. However this ratio remains lower than its peers’, and is largely due to the company’s year‐end write‐off policy of NPLs in arrears for over 24 months. The net NPLs/equity ratio (solvency) increased to 19.9% at Q108 from 9.0% at FYE07, due to NPL accretion. Fitch observes that in the current weak macroeconomic environment the company will have to continue its aggressive monitoring of asset quality in tandem with its high loan growth. · LOLC’s net interest margin (NIM) narrowed to 8.5% at FYE07 from 9.9% at FYE06 due to the increase in funding costs, brought on by increasing market interest rates over the period. The lower NIM, coupled with an increase in provisions for doubtful debts, resulted in pre‐tax return on assets (pre‐tax ROA) declining to 5.79% at FYE07 from 6.45% at FYE06. However post‐tax ROA remained high at 5.77% due to LOLC’s significantly lower effective tax rate of 0.4% at FYE07 compared to a peer average of 31.0%. National Long‐Term A(lka) Sovereign Risk Foreign Long‐Term IDR Local Long‐Term IDR BB‐ BB‐ Outlook National Long‐Term Stable Sovereign Foreign Long‐Term IDR Negative Sovereign Local Long‐Term IDR Negative Financial Data Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC 31 Mar 07 31 Mar 06 Total assets (USDm) Total assets (LKRm) Total equity (LKRm) Net income (LKRm) ROA (%) ROE (%) Equity/assets (%) 190.9 20,888.7 3,694.3 986.6 5.8 30.2 17.7 129.4 13,298 2,850.3 664 6 25.7 21.4 Analysts Hasira De Silva +9411 254 1900 hasira.desilva@fitchratings.lk Rukshana Thalgodapitiya +9411 254 1900 rukshana.thalgodapitiya@fitchratings.lk Support · LOLC is not part of the country’s payments and settlements system and is of lower systemic importance than mainstream commercial banks. Therefore it is unlikely that state support would be available. Key Rating Drivers · The rating Outlook for LOLC is Stable. An upgrade will be linked to the diversification and sustainability of its funding streams while sustaining healthy levels of profitability and solvency. A significant deterioration in profitability or solvency could result in a downgrade. Profile LOLC is Sri Lanka’s pioneer SLC and was established in 1980. www.fitchratings.com 30 November 2007 Financial Institutions · Established in 1980, LOLC is the pioneer specialised leasing company in Sri Lanka · The company has recently started to offer a multitude of related services via five wholly owned subsidiaries and an associate company, which carry LOLC’s brand name. Profile LOLC is Sri Lanka’s pioneer SLC and was established in 1980 by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Bank of Ceylon (rated ‘AA(lka)’), in technical collaboration with ORIX Leasing (ORIX) of Japan. While ORIX has maintained an equity stake of 30% in LOLC since inception, Mr. Raja Nanayakkara and his family (who are leaders in the import and sale of new and used Japanese motor vehicles, and have business interests in plantations and land development) acquired a controlling interest in 2002 and currently hold over 54% of LOLC’s equity. LOLC is listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange and the remaining 16% is widely owned. LOLC’s mainstay is the provision of motor vehicle finance through leases, hire purchase (HP) contracts, and vehicle loans – a market in which it enjoys a strong customer franchise. LOLC commands a market share of around 8% of total leasing and hire‐purchase loans (including those of banks, SLCs and registered finance companies (RFCs)). The company has recently started diversified into other forms of lending and related services via five wholly owned subsidiaries and an associate, all bearing LOLC’s brand name. In addition to vehicle finance, LOLC group’s total product base currently comprises operating leases (mainly to large corporate clients), working capital lending, agro‐ and micro‐finance, insurance brokering, and information technology services. The group also provides debt factoring and invoice discounting services via its subsidiary, Lanka Orix Factors Limited (LOFAC). During 2001 LOLC obtained an RFC licence via its subsidiary, Lanka Orix Finance Company Limited (LOFIN, rated BBB+(lka)), in order to facilitate the mobilisation of savings and time deposits from the general public. The total contribution from subsidiaries towards group revenue and assets was 24% and 21% respectively at FYE07. Notwithstanding this, over 60% of the group’s revenue at FYE07 was derived from financing motor vehicles — a concentration which LOLC expects to reduce over the longer term. Group Revenue Composition As of FYE07 LOFAC 8% Others 8% LOFIN 8% LOLC 76% Source: LOLC annual report Due to its long‐standing affiliation with ORIX, and relatively good financial profile, LOLC enjoys long‐term credit lines at concessionary rates from various bilateral and multilateral donor agencies such as the Netherlands Development Agency, and the Asian Development Bank. In addition to funds, the company derived further support from Deutsche Investitions‐ Und Entwicklungsgesellschaft (DEG) of Germany, in areas such as market‐ and liquidity‐risk management and the development of its management information systems. LOLC’s foray into micro‐ and agro‐finance in recent times — an inherently riskier form of lending — is further supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which has undertaken to guarantee 50% of the capital loss on selected micro‐lending schemes, should losses arise. Such funds, together with a growing customer deposit base sourced via LOFIN a , has helped LOLC to reduce somewhat its dependence on local market borrowings. LOLC has a network of 22 branches at present, spanning 12 of the country’s 25 districts — branches are concentrated around the core city‐centres within each district. The company currently sources around 70% of its business through new customers, while the remainder is accounted for by its existing clientele. A total of three (out of 11) board seats are represented by the Nanayakkara family among LOLC’s board of directors. Two out of three family members, together with LOLC’s group managing director, serve as executive directors, while two members of ORIX’s senior management also serve at board‐level and are required to attend board meetings on a quarterly basis. a Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 See funding mix; page 7 2 Financial Institutions Peer Performance Comparison National Long‐Term Rating Outlook (LKRm) Total assets Loans and advances Borrowings Equity Total income Net income (%) Net interest margin Pre‐tax ROA ROA Cost/income Equity/assets Operating costs/average assets Gross NPLs/gross loans Net NPLs/equity Loan loss reserves/NPLs LOLC (Company) Q108a FYE07 A(lka) Stable FYE06 CF FYE07 A+(lka) Stable PL FYE07 A‐(lka) Stable CLC FYE06 A‐(lka) Negative Peersb SLC Sector (excludes LOLC) 22,958 14,698 18,290 3,737 1,938 601 20,889 13,554 16,250 3,694 1,915 987 13,298 9,661 9,824 2,850 1,319 664 27,837 20,511 5,967 5,297 3,080 1,044 17,091 18,053 12,224 2,681 2,313 748 7,746 7,516 5,844 1,038 745 268 52,673 46,080 24,034 9,015 6,074 1,997 31,616 31,118 23,307 4,735 3,424 1,050 6.0 3.6 2.7 52.4 16.3 4.6 5.6 19.9 9.4 8.5 5.8 5.8 43.0 17.7 4.8 2.8 9.0 11.9 9.9 6.5 6.0 45.5 21.4 5.4 1.7 3.6 37.4 9.2 6.0 4.2 49.7 19.0 6.2 6.7 11.9 54.1 11.3 6.3 4.6 28.0 15.7 4.0 9.1 ‐18.4 129.9 10.5 6.1 3.9 32.4 13.4 3.5 10.5 53.4 29.9 10.2 6.0 4.2 39.9 17.1 5.1 8.3 7.7 81.8 9.9 5.3 3.6 33.1 15.0 3.8 9.7 14.0 78.2 a Income statement/profitability numbers are annualised (3 months) Peer Average – Comprises of audited numbers at financial year‐end (march 2007 for CF and PLC; December 2006 for CLC) Legend ‐ CF: Central Finance PLC, PL: Peoples Leasing Co. PLC, CLC: Commercial Leasing Co. PLC, PM: Peoples Merchant Bank PLC, CeyL: Ceylease Financial Services PLC, and SMB: Seylan Merchant Bank PLC Source: Company annual reports/Quarterly financials b The company acquired a 17.9% stake in PRASAC ‐ a Cambodian‐based micro‐finance institution – during FY07, through which it hopes to derive technical expertise and synergies for its local operations over the medium‐ to longer term. Prospects · Profitability, although witnessing a marginal decline, compares well with the sector at FYE07 · NIMs narrowed due to the increase in funding costs, driven by the upward shift in market interest rates during FY07 · NIM, although narrowing, should remain healthy over the medium term · Operating lease and hire rental income account for around 50% of non‐interest revenue · LOLC’s operations are relatively cost‐efficient · Effective tax rates were significantly lower than peers during FY06 and FY07 Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 While the provision of motor vehicle finance is likely to dominate the company’s lending portfolio over the short‐ to medium term, the management intends to leverage on LOLC’s association with its foreign funding partners towards the diversification and growth of its micro‐ and agro‐lending products. Micro‐ and agro‐ lending accounted for less than 2% of the group’s total lending base at end‐Q108. Performance LOLC’s leasing and hire purchase loans posted a 30% overall growth during FY07, while other types of lending in total grew by a higher 64% over a smaller base. Loan growth continued at an annualised rate of 33.8% during Q108 and is high compared with the leasing industry in general, which witnessed a stifling of growth during the period due to the prevalent weak macroeconomic conditions. LOLC’s pre‐tax profit grew by 39.3% during FY07 compared to 25.0% in FY06. Pre‐ tax profit was underpinned by strong growth in total income earned during the period, despite an increase in provisioning costs. However NIMs narrowed during the period due to the increase in funding costs, which, together with higher provisioning, resulted in a dip in pre‐tax ROA to 5.8% at FYE07, from 6.5% at FYE06. The dip in LOLC’s post‐tax ROA was lower during FY07 due to a reduction in its effective tax rates to 0.4% at FYE07 (from 6.6% at FYE06). LOLC’s effective tax rates were significantly lower than a peer average of 31.0% at FYE07. This is due to the company utilising half of its accumulated tax losses from accounting periods up to FY06 for the recognition of a deferred‐tax asset during FY07. Consequently LOLC’s post‐tax ROA compares well with peers’ at FYE07. The company expects to recognise the remaining tax losses against taxable profit during FY08. 3 Financial Institutions As per amendments made at the recent 7 November 2007 National Budget, tax losses incurred as a result of capital allowances on finance lease assets, which have hitherto been deductible against total income earned during the period in arriving at taxable profit, will only be deductible against income from the relevant lease assets. This should come into effect from 1st April 2008. Consequently effective taxes should increase across the leasing industry landscape in the future, with companies that offer a sizeable portion of other forms of lending alongside finance leases (such as loans and HPs) being affected to a larger extent than those whose income is entirely derived from finance leases. The above change, together with the depletion of accumulated tax losses that could have been set off against future taxable profits, should increase LOLC’s effective taxes to levels commensurate with the SLC sector over the medium term. The resulting effect on the net income of subsequent periods could reduce post‐tax ROA to levels more commensurate with the SLC sector. Return on equity increased to 30.2% at FYE07 from 25.7% at FYE06, largely due to the growth in LOLC’s capital base lagging behind the growth in net income over the period. Key Income Statement Figures as a % of Average Assets Peer averageb LOLC Interest income Interest expense Net interest income Non‐interest income Operating costs Pre‐provisioning profit Provision charge Tax charge Net income FYE07 15.33 8.44 6.89 4.31 4.82 6.38 0.59 0.02 5.77 FYE06 14.55 6.38 8.17 3.79 5.44 6.52 0.07 0.43 6.02 17.88 9.05 8.83 4.11 5.25 7.70 1.56 1.99 4.16 b Includes audited figures as at latest FYE (March 2007 for CF and PLC, December 2006 for CLC) Peers include: Central Finance PLC, Peoples Leasing Co. Ltd, and Commercial Leasing PLC Source: Company Annual Reports Net Interest Revenue Non‐Interest Revenue Composition (%) Collections from written off contracts Profit on early terminations Operating lease & hire rental income Profit on sale of fixed assets Forex gain Royalty & management fees Others Total FYE07 6.1 FYE06 0.4 10.8 13.1 49.6 60.1 8.4 0.1 4.4 9.3 4.3 10.2 11.4 100.0 11.8 100.0 Source: LOLC Annual Reports Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 LOLC’s interest yield, though slightly lower than the peer average, is partly a reflection of LOLC’s somewhat more creditworthy clientele, and partly a reflection of the lower proportion of penal interest income recovered. LOLC’s net interest revenue grew by 63.4% during FY07 (20.5% in FY06) on the back of high loan growth and increasing lending rates over the period. However a more significant increase in borrowing costs resulted in NIM contracting to 8.5% at FYE07 compared with 9.9% at FYE06. The increase in funding costs was brought about by increasing market interest rates during FY07. However the contraction in the company’s NIM is mitigated to an extent by the fact that its sundry loan portfolio (which made up around 35% of its lending at FYE07) contains a re‐pricing provision, allowing the company to re‐price the lending rate at regular intervals. The management maintains that such loans are currently being re‐priced on a semi‐annual or quarterly basis. This, together with the upward revision of lending rates on new lease and HP contracts during FY07, should contain the narrowing of NIMs to some extent. Non‐Interest Revenue Non‐interest revenue grew by 76% during FY07 compared to 10% during FY06, accounting for 38% and 32% of total revenue at FYE07 and FYE06 respectively. Around 50% of non‐interest revenue consisted of operating lease and hire rental income as at FYE07, which grew by 46% in nominal terms during FY07. The company also derives a foreign exchange gain from the conversion of earnings on foreign exchange leases that are extended to eligible corporate clients, as well as earnings on LOLC’s foreign exchange deposits, into local currency (see Market Risk on page 7). 4 Financial Institutions Operating Expenses Operating Cost Composition (%) Staff costs Depreciation Administration Marketing & operations Other Total operating cost base (LKRm) FYE07 25.8 26.2 22.0 22.3 FYE06 26.5 29.4 18.1 22.2 3.7 100.0 824.4 3.9 100.0 599.9 Source: LOLC annual reports · The availability of a re‐ pricing provision on LOLC’s sundry loans mitigates market risk to some extent · Un‐hedged forex exposure on borrowings was minimal at around LKR54m at end‐ Q108 (2% of total forex borrowings) The increase in LOLC’s operating costs (excluding provisions) was higher at 37% during FY07 compared to 14% at FYE06. This is partly attributable to the increase in the number of employees to 414 at FYE07 from 346 at FYE06 due to the expansion of its operations, along with an increase in average personal cost per employee during the period. However the aforementioned expansion of LOLC’s operations has remained cost‐effective, as indicated by the company’s ratio of operating costs/average assets, which reduced to 4.82% at FYE07 from 5.44% at FYE06. The company’s cost/income ratio declined to 43.0% at FYE07 from 45.5% at FYE06. Risk Management Credit Risk LOLC’s credit risk management is supported by systems developed by ORIX and has been refined over time, and is structured around clearly laid out procedures for credit evaluation, approval, monitoring, and recovery. Loan applications are prepared by personnel of varying levels of seniority depending on the level of complexity associated with the credit appraisal process, on a case‐by‐case basis. Likewise, facilities are approved on a hierarchical basis with delegated approval limits. LOLC’s delegated approval limits are somewhat higher than some of its peers’ and enable relatively faster turnaround times on loan applications. However these limits vary according to the inherent risk of the underlying facility and the nature of the collateral pledged against them. For example, loans backed by machinery, short‐ term revolving loans, and guarantor‐backed loans command more stringent appraisals and lower delegated approval limits than lease and HP contracts. While branch managers are given the authority to approve leasing/HP contracts of up to LKR2m in terms of total receivables, loans backed by machinery and guarantors in general need to be submitted to the respective regional manager and the head of credit risk management, respectively, for approval. In general, facilities above LKR12m are referred to the executive committee, while all facilities above LKR100m have to be referred to ORIX for approval. SLCs and other non‐bank financial institutions (NBFIs) tend to cater to a client base that is relatively less credit‐worthy than those that are catered to by commercial banks, and, as such, are more susceptible to an economic downturn. Of this client segment, the larger, more established, NBFIs such as LOLC cater to clients that are relatively more creditworthy than the rest. This is generally borne out by larger loan sizes and higher loan/value ratios (LTV), on average, among the top NBFIs. Group Advances & Operating Leases Composition (%) Finance lease Hire purchase Sundry loan Mortgage loan Micro & agro Operating lease Factoring Margin trading Gold‐backed Q108 FYE07 FYE06 37.3 37.6 40.7 17.7 16.0 13.0 27.3 26.2 25.2 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 6.4 6.7 5.3 6.6 8.6 10.8 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 Source: LOLC Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 LOLC’s average loan sizes are typically within the LKR1m‐2m range, whilst its share of loans above the LKR2m threshold is also relatively high. LTVs can typically reach 90% of the forced sale value (FSV) of the asset for leases on new vehicles, and 80% for HP contracts based on used vehicles, but could be as low as 25% for loans secured by a mortgage on the borrower’s own residence (which could prove relatively harder to foreclose upon, compared with unoccupied land). The FSV is determined by a pre‐approved panel of professional valuers or LOLC’s in‐house valuer. It is further mandatory for the pledged assets to be insured via a comprehensive cover, which is to be assigned in favour of LOLC. LOLC’s NPLs stem mainly from its lease and HP portfolios, which accounted for 43% and 22% respectively of total company lending at FYE07. The credit risk in the lease/HP portfolio is mitigated to a large extent due to the company having absolute ownership of the asset, and the provisions within the Finance Leasing Act 56 of 2000 and the Consumer Credit Act No 29 of 1982 that makes repossession relatively straightforward. However, LOLC’s sundry loan portfolio (which accounted for 35% of company lending at FYE07) is relatively more risky than traditional lease and HP products in that although enjoying absolute ownership of the underlying 5 Financial Institutions asset, the company has to resort to lengthy litigation proceedings for repossession. As such, the sundry loan portfolio would justify closer monitoring and follow‐up. LOLC’s exposure to micro‐finance — an inherently riskier product than lease/HP/other loans — is minimal at present and accounted for around 2% of total group lending at end‐Q108. Gross Loans vs. Gross NPL Ratio (LKRm) Gross loans (LHS) Gross NPL % post‐write off (RHS) Gross NPL % pre‐write off (RHS) (%) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 FYE05 FYE06 FYE07 Q107 LOLC’s recoveries team has been strengthened with the appointment of Source: LOLC annual reports & MIS dedicated recovery managers to handle the portfolios of a designated number of marketing officers. The legal department has been streamlined to expedite legal recoveries. Certain recovery functions have also been outsourced to improve effectiveness. Non‐Performing Loans The asset quality of LOLC’s loan book improved significantly at FYE06, with gross NPLs falling to 1.7% of gross loans (from 11.3% at FYE05). This was largely due to a write‐off of 69% of the company’s NPL base which was in arrears for over 24 months at FYE06, as per the company policy which was implemented during the year. Fitch notes that LOLC’s earnings are not affected by such write‐offs, as NPLs that are in arrears for over 18 months are already fully provided for, as per the company’s provisioning policy for doubtful debts. The company wrote off a further 22% of NPLs at FYE07 as per the above policy. LOLC’s gross NPL ratio increased to 2.8% and 5.6% at FYE07 and Q108 respectively due to the increase in absolute NPLs, in parallel with the general trend experienced across the industry. However the gross NPL ratio remains the lowest within the non‐ bank financial institution landscape, largely aided by the company’s year‐end write‐ off policy, which provides a lower base for new NPL accretion. However LOLC’s NPL ageing remains favourable, with a significant portion of new NPL accretions occurring due to temporary set‐backs in borrowers’ income levels, with the majority of NPLs remaining within the ”3‐6 months” arrears category (see table on NPL Analysis). LOLC provides for its doubtful debts in line with the regulatory requirement. In addition, the company also provides for doubtful debts on a case‐by‐case basis as and when the recovery of a loan becomes doubtful. As per the above policy, NPLs in the “3‐6 months in arrears” category are not covered by loan loss provisions unless they are deemed to be un‐collectible on an individual basis. Consequent to the increase in new NPLs within the “3‐6 months in arrears” category, LOLC’s solvency (as measured by Fitch as NPLs net of loan loss NPL Analysis provisions/equity) worsened to (%) Q108 FYE07 FYE06 19.9% at Q108 from 9.0% at NPL/gross loans 5.5 2.8 1.7 FYE07. Fitch observes that Net NPL/equity 19.9 9.0 3.6 Loan loss reserves/NPL 9.4 11.9 37.4 LOLC’s large equity base should Performing loans (LKRm) 9,130 9,345 7,109 be able to absorb further Delinquent loans (LKRm) 5,761 4,208 2,694 deteriorations in solvency, to NPLs (above 3 months ‐ LKRm) 823 378 161 some extent, in a rising‐NPL (% of gross NPLs) 3–6 months in arrears 79.4 70.3 37.3 scenario. The absence of a general provision, together with LOLC’s favourable NPL ageing, has Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 6–12 months in arrears 12–18 months in arrears Above 18 months in arrears 14.0 3.4 3.1 16.6 9.2 3.9 27.2 15.5 20.0 Source: LOLC Management Information Systems 6 Financial Institutions resulted in lower loan loss reserve (LLR) coverage of NPLs relative to most industry peers. This is indicated by LLR/NPL ratios of 9.4% and 11.9% at Q108 and FYE07 respectively. Market Risk The maturity structure of assets and liabilities at FYE07 revealed a negative gap of LKR828.8m in the “3‐12 months” maturity bucket (ie maturing liabilities exceed maturing assets by LKR828.8m), with a further negative gap of LKR1472.2m in the “above 60 month” maturity bucket. The above mismatches accounted for 5% and 9% of rate sensitive liabilities, respectively. By default, SLCs in the context of the local market have had to face a more significant level of interest re‐pricing risk compared to banks, due to the fact that a significant portion of their business contains leasing and hire purchase loans at fixed rates, while funding (predominantly institutional borrowings) could potentially be re‐priced depending on market conditions. LOLC’s foray into sundry loans in recent times and the significant growth of these loans (to 35% of company lending at FYE07) has mitigated this risk somewhat, due to a provision for the re‐pricing of lending rates being available on the loans. Additionally interest rates on new fixed‐rate originations have also been increased, with average rates moving up to 28% in June 2007 from 20.75% in April 2006, reducing market risk further. The company has entered into an interest rate swap agreement to the value of LKR500m with the local branch of a leading foreign bank, where LOLC has agreed to pay a fixed rate for a period of two years (until 21 January 2008), in a bid to hedge market risk on its borrowings to some extent. The company’s ability to further hedge its interest rate risk is largely stifled, given that the local market for such instruments is essentially under‐developed. LOLC is exposed to some degree of foreign exchange (forex) risk due to its foreign funding lines. However the company has hedged the forex risk on the entire borrowed capital by depositing the funds with local banks and borrowing in LKR against this. LOLC maintains that interest earned on the foreign currency deposits mitigates the forex risk on interest payable to a large extent, leaving the net un‐ hedged exposure at around 2% of total foreign currency borrowings at end‐Q108. This translates into approximately LKR54m for end‐Q108 forex deposit levels — not a serious concern, in Fitch’s view, given the company’s profitability and overall financial profile. Operational Risk · Capital position is strong compared to peers’ · Internal capital generation increased at FYE07 over a higher capital base, due to a lower payout of net profit as dividends · Equity/assets is on a downward trend due to high loan growth · Access to public deposit funding via LOFIN, a wholly owned RFC · Lower funding costs compared to other SLCs’ Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 LOLC’s operational risk is managed by clearly laid out operational procedures. Adherence to such procedures is ensured by way of hierarchical review and approval through internal audit. Independent evaluations of internal controls are done through external audits. The internal control framework is further strengthened by regular reviews carried out by ORIX, facilitated through regular reporting and sign‐off. Funding and Liquidity Similar to other SLCs, LOLC’s funding largely consists of institutional borrowings from the local market, which accounted for 45.4% of group assets at FYE07, compared with 39.1% at FYE06. LOLC’s average cost of funds increased to 11.1% at FYE07 from 8.9% at FYE06 due to increasing market interest rates over the period, but remained lower than its peers’ within the SLC sector. The company has managed to diversify its funding sources to some extent, on account of borrowings from multilateral donor agencies. The continuous inflow of such funds during FY07 and their relatively lower cost, together with LOLC’s large 7 Financial Institutions equity base, helped suppress the company’s cost of funds compared to the SLC sector. The relatively lower cost of such credit lines has also improved LOLC’s ability to compete aggressively among SLC sector peers, concurrently supporting the company’s above‐average loan growth during FY07 and Q108. LOLC Group Funding Mix (%) Foreign funding Customer deposits Local institutional borrowings Long term Short term Bank overdrafts Finance lease liability Other liabilities Equity Total Q108 16.2 8.6 49.0 FYE07 16.1 8.0 45.4 FYE06 17.3 8.6 39.1 19.1 26.8 3.1 4.0 6.0 16.0 100.0 19.5 24.7 1.2 4.7 8.3 17.6 100.0 9.6 28.6 0.9 2.1 11.8 21.2 100.0 LOLC acquired an RFC licence in 2001 (via LOFIN), which allows for the mobilisation of savings and time‐ Source: LOLC deposits from the general public, in a bid to improve the diversity in its funding avenues. Although LOFIN’s deposit base has grown at a rapid pace (as indicated by its compounded annual growth rate of 56.1%) between FYE05 and FYE07, the overall effect on the group’s funding diversity is modest at present, with customer deposits accounting for 8.6% of group assets at end‐Q108. Capital LOLC’s capital position has consistently been on a strong footing compared to other SLCs’. The company’s equity reduced to 17.7% of total assets at FYE07 from 21.4% at FYE06 due to high loan growth witnessed during FY07. LOLC’s dividend payout as a percentage of net income reduced to 14% at FYE07 (from 18% at FYE06 and FYE05). Incremental internal capital generation (measured as retained earnings of the current period/equity base of the previous period) increased to 30% at FYE07 off a higher equity base due to reduced payout of net income, compared to an average of 23% between FYE04 – FYE06. Although LOLC’s internal capital generation rate compares well with other SLCs’, it may seem overstated, given the relatively higher growth of its loan book, which, if maintained, would challenge the company’s strong absolute capital position over the medium term. Internal capital generation could be further constrained due to the possible increase in effective tax rates over the medium term (see Performance section on page 2). Loan Growth vs Capital Position Loan growth Internal capital generation Equity/total assets (%) 45 38 30 23 15 8 0 FYE04 FYE05 FYE06 FYE07 Source: LOLC, Fitch Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 8 Financial Institutions Lanka ORIX Leasing Company PLC Balance Sheet Analysis Year end (USDm) A. Loans 1 Customer loans 2 Other loans 3 (Loan loss reserves) 4 (Interest in suspense) Total A B Other earning assets 1 Deposits with banks 2 Treasury bills 3 Other securities 4 Equity investments Total B C Total earning assets (A+B) D Fixed assets E Non‐earning assets F Total assets G Customer and short term funding 1 Time deposits 2 Other deposits Total G H Borrowings I Other (non‐int. bearing) J Total liabilities K Equity L Total liabilities & equity Exchange rate 123.89 0.00 ‐0.41 0.00 123.47 0.00 29.41 0.00 0.00 14.14 43.56 167.03 14.30 9.60 190.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 148.53 8.63 157.16 33.77 190.93 USD1 = LKR 31 Mar 07 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 13,553.79 0.00 ‐45.27 0.00 13,508.51 0.00 3,217.74 0.00 0.00 1,547.46 4,765.20 18,273.71 1,564.85 1,050.13 20,888.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16,250.17 944.23 17,194.41 3,694.29 20,888.69 109.4056 Average (LKRm) 64.89 0.00 ‐0.22 0.00 64.67 11,607.22 0.00 ‐52.93 0.00 11,554.29 15.40 0.00 0.00 7.41 22.81 87.48 7.49 5.03 100.00 2,236.91 0.00 0.00 1,258.40 3,495.31 15,049.61 1,231.17 812.57 17,093.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 77.79 4.52 82.31 17.69 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13,037.15 783.93 13,821.07 3,272.27 17,093.34 31 Mar 06 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 9,660.66 0.00 ‐60.58 0.00 9,600.08 0.00 1,256.08 0.00 0.00 969.34 2,225.42 11,825.50 897.48 575.01 13,297.99 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9,824.12 623.62 10,447.73 2,850.25 13,297.99 USD1 = LKR 72.65 0.00 ‐0.46 0.00 72.19 9.45 0.00 0.00 7.29 16.74 88.93 6.75 4.32 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 73.88 4.69 78.57 21.43 100.00 102.8006 31 Mar 05 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 7,096.67 0.00 ‐644.99 0.00 6,451.68 0.00 882.14 0.00 0.00 335.24 1,217.38 7,669.06 608.47 468.53 8,746.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6,024.53 414.07 6,438.61 2,308.13 8,746.74 USD1 = LKR 81.14 0.00 ‐7.37 0.00 73.77 10.09 0.00 0.00 3.83 13.92 87.69 6.96 5.36 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 68.88 4.73 73.62 26.39 100.01 99.4111 31 Mar 04 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 6,203.41 0.00 ‐608.11 0.00 5,595.29 0.00 812.92 0.00 0.00 368.90 1,181.82 6,777.11 555.81 282.07 7,615.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5,395.67 376.66 5,772.33 1,844.35 7,616.68 USD1 = LKR 81.46 0.00 ‐7.99 0.00 73.48 10.68 0.00 0.00 4.84 15.52 89.00 7.30 3.70 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.86 4.95 75.80 24.22 100.02 97.4178 Source: LOLC, Fitch Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 9 Financial Institutions Income Statement Analysis 1 Interest income 2 Interest expense 3 Net interest revenue 4 Other operating income 5 Total income 6 Provision for loan losses 7 Provision others 8 Personnel expenses 9 Other non int. expenses 10 Total expenses 11 Pre tax profit 12 Taxes 13 Net income 31 Mar 07 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 2,621.17 15.33 1,442.88 8.44 1,178.29 6.89 737.15 4.31 1,915.44 11.21 68.49 0.40 32.37 0.19 212.75 1.24 611.65 3.58 925.25 5.41 990.19 5.79 3.59 0.02 986.59 5.77 31 Mar 06 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 1,604.00 14.55 703.40 6.38 900.60 8.17 418.12 3.79 1,318.71 11.96 3.93 0.04 3.97 0.04 158.86 1.44 441.02 4.00 607.78 5.51 710.93 6.45 46.92 0.43 664.01 6.02 31 Mar 05 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 1,331.35 16.27 532.30 6.51 799.05 9.77 380.89 4.66 1,179.95 14.42 82.98 1.01 0.00 0.00 141.24 1.73 386.94 4.73 611.16 7.47 568.79 6.95 6.56 0.08 562.23 6.87 31 Mar 04 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 1,446.45 21.28 493.34 7.26 953.11 14.02 59.65 0.88 1,012.76 14.90 58.29 0.86 0.00 0.00 101.97 1.50 434.60 6.39 594.86 8.75 417.91 6.15 0.00 0.00 417.91 6.15 Source: LOLC, Fitch Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 10 Financial Institutions Ratio Analysis (%) I Profitability level 1 Net interest margin 2 Pre‐tax profit/total assets (av.) 3 Net income/equity (av.) 4 Net income/total assets (av.) 5 Total non‐int. expense (excl.prov.)/net int. rev.+ other operating income 6 Net interest rev./total assets (av.) II Capital adequacy (year end) 1 Equity/total assets 2 Equity/loans 3 Capital/risks – tier 1 4 Net NPLs/equity III Liquidity (year end) 1 Liquid assets/customer & short term funding 2 Loans/customer & short term funding IV Asset Quality 1 Loan loss provisions/loans (av.) 2 Loan loss reserves/loans 3 Loan loss reserves/NPLs 4 Non performing loans/gross loans 31 Mar 07 31 Mar 06 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 04 8.49 5.79 30.15 5.77 43.04 6.89 0.00 17.69 27.35 20.91 9.03 9.78 6.45 25.74 6.02 45.49 8.17 0.00 21.43 29.69 23.67 3.56 11.41 6.95 27.08 6.87 44.76 9.77 0.00 26.39 35.78 29.35 7.31 16.16 6.15 23.73 6.15 52.98 14.02 0.00 24.22 32.96 27.11 8.85 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.59 0.33 11.95 2.80 0.05 0.63 37.42 1.68 1.25 9.09 79.26 11.30 1.03 9.80 78.84 12.11 Source: LOLC, Fitch Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 11 Financial Institutions Lanka ORIX Leasing Company PLC (Consolidated) Balance Sheet Analysis Year end (USDm) A Loans 1 Customer loans 2 Other loans 3 (Loan loss reserves) 4 (Interest in suspense) Total A B Other earning assets 1 Deposits with banks 2 Treasury bills 3 Other securities 4 Equity investments Total B C Total earning assets (A+B) D Fixed assets E Non‐earning assets F Total assets G Customer and short term funding 1 Time deposits 2 Other deposits Total G H. Borrowings I. Other (non‐int. bearing) J. Total liabilities K. Equity L. Total liabilities & equity Exchange rate 147.33 0.00 ‐1.01 0.00 146.32 0.00 31.79 0.00 0.00 4.98 36.77 183.09 14.76 25.23 223.07 15.96 0.00 15.96 155.40 16.59 187.95 35.13 223.07 USD1 = LKR 31 Mar 07 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 16,119.01 0.00 ‐110.50 0.00 16,008.51 0.00 3,477.50 0.00 0.00 544.85 4,022.35 20,030.86 1,614.96 2,759.78 24,405.61 0.00 1,746.16 0.00 1,746.16 17,001.43 1,814.82 20,562.41 3,843.19 24,405.61 109.41 Average (LKRm) 66.05 0.00 ‐0.45 0.00 65.59 13608.34 0.00 ‐99.68 0.00 13508.65 14.25 0.00 0.00 2.23 16.48 82.07 6.62 11.31 100.00 2448.50 0.00 0.00 524.60 2973.09 16481.75 1280.01 2554.40 20316.15 7.15 0.00 7.15 69.66 7.44 84.25 15.75 100.00 1470.21 0.00 1470.21 13738.19 1720.57 16928.97 3387.18 20,316.15 31 Mar 06 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 11,097.66 0.00 ‐88.87 0.00 11,008.80 0.00 1,419.50 0.00 0.00 504.34 1,923.83 12,932.63 945.05 2,349.01 16,226.69 0.00 1,194.26 0.00 1,194.26 10,474.95 1,626.31 13,295.52 2,931.17 16,226.69 USD1 = LKR 68.39 0.00 ‐0.55 0.00 67.84 8.75 0.00 0.00 3.11 11.86 79.70 5.82 14.48 100.00 7.36 0.00 7.36 64.55 10.02 81.94 18.06 100.00 102.8006 31 Mar 05 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 7,766.54 0.00 ‐649.58 0.00 7,116.96 0.00 1,257.55 0.00 0.00 99.61 1,357.16 8,474.12 646.81 1,585.51 10,706.44 0.00 716.21 0.00 716.21 6,634.29 991.53 8,342.03 2,364.41 10,706.44 USD1 = LKR 72.54 0.00 ‐6.07 0.00 66.47 11.75 0.00 0.00 0.93 12.68 79.15 6.04 14.81 100.00 6.69 0.00 6.69 61.97 9.26 77.92 22.08 100.00 99.4111 31 Mar 04 Year end As % of (LKRm) assets 6,461.18 0.00 ‐608.11 0.00 5,853.06 0.00 1,036.72 0.00 0.00 203.29 1,240.01 7,093.08 598.14 1,295.53 8,986.75 0.00 196.62 0.00 196.62 5,951.75 914.90 7,063.27 1,923.48 8,986.75 USD1 = LKR 71.90 0.00 ‐6.77 0.00 65.13 11.54 0.00 0.00 2.26 13.80 78.93 6.66 14.42 100.00 2.19 0.00 2.19 66.23 10.18 78.60 21.40 100.00 97.4178 Source: LOLC, Fitch Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 12 Financial Institutions Income Statement Analysis 1 Interest income 2 Interest expense 3 Net interest revenue 4 Other operating income 5 Total income 6 Provision for loan losses 7 Provision others 8 Personnel expenses 9 Other non int. expenses 10 Total expenses 11 Pre tax profit 12 Taxes 13 Net income 31 Mar 07 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 3,107.81 15.30 1,876.39 9.24 1,231.42 6.06 1,171.35 5.77 2,402.78 11.83 114.13 0.56 32.37 0.16 351.36 1.73 801.03 3.94 1,298.89 6.39 1,103.89 5.43 49.28 0.24 1,054.61 5.19 31 Mar 06 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 1,858.61 13.80 939.12 6.97 919.49 6.83 861.55 6.40 1,781.04 13.23 71.00 0.53 5.29 0.04 304.40 2.26 650.81 4.83 1,031.51 7.66 749.53 5.57 60.94 0.45 688.59 5.11 31 Mar 05 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 1,420.19 14.42 617.60 6.27 802.59 8.15 631.92 6.42 1,434.51 14.57 99.28 1.01 0.00 0.00 227.04 2.31 514.13 5.22 840.45 8.54 594.06 6.03 18.86 0.19 575.20 5.84 31 Mar 04 Income expenses As % of total AV (LKRm) assets 1,254.44 19.97 552.77 8.80 701.67 11.17 524.04 8.34 1,225.71 19.51 78.37 1.25 0.00 0.00 159.98 2.55 584.91 9.31 823.26 13.10 402.44 6.41 ‐1.99 ‐0.03 404.44 6.44 Source: LOLC, Fitch Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 13 Financial Institutions Ratio Analysis I Profitability level 1 Net interest margin 2 Pre‐tax profit/total assets (av.) 3 Net income/equity (av.) 4 Net income/total assets (av.) 5 Total non‐Int. expense (excl.prov.)/net int. rev.+ other operating income 6 Net interest rev./total assets (av.) II Capital adequacy (year end) 1 Equity/total assets 2 Equity/loans 3 Capital/risks ‐ tier 1 4 Net NPLs/equity III Liquidity (year end) 1 Liquid assets/customer & short term funding 2 Loans/customer & short term funding IV Asset quality 1 Loan loss provisions/loans (av.) 2 Loan loss reserves/loans 3 Loan loss reserves/NPLs 4 Non performing loans/gross loans 31 Mar 07 31 Mar 06 31 Mar 05 31 Mar 04 7.52 5.43 31.14 5.19 47.96 6.06 0.00 15.75 24.01 18.36 15.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.69 15.98 4.29 8.59 5.57 26.01 5.11 53.63 6.83 0.00 18.06 26.63 19.80 9.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.80 23.88 3.35 10.31 6.03 26.83 5.84 51.67 8.15 0.00 22.08 33.22 25.02 17.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.40 8.36 61.71 13.55 11.26 5.02 21.93 5.05 60.77 8.76 0.00 21.40 32.86 24.19 28.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.35 9.41 52.98 17.78 Source: LOLC. Fitch Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 14 Financial Institutions Copyright © 2007 by Fitch, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 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In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 of Great Britain, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers. Lanka Orix Leasing Company PLC November 2007 15