AFC Consultants International DRY CLEANING PROJECT TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................ 2 2 PROJECT DESCRIPTION ......................................................................... 2 2.1 2.2 3 DRY CLEANING PROCESS ....................................................................................... 3 DRY-CLEANING WASTES ........................................................................................ 4 MARKET ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 4 3.1 3.2 TARGET MARKET ................................................................................................ 4 SWOT ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 5 4 MARKETING PLAN.................................................................................. 5 5 FINANCIAL PLAN ................................................................................... 6 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 INITIAL INVESTMENT ........................................................................................... 6 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS .......................................................................................... 6 PROJECTED INCOME S TATEMENT .............................................................................. 8 PROJECTED B ALANCE S HEET ................................................................................... 9 PROJECTED C ASH FLOWS ...................................................................................... 9 RATIO ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................10 BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS ........................................................................................10 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................11 6 RECOMMENDATIONS AND KEY SUCCESS FACTORS ................................ 11 7 ECONOMIC IMPACT EVALUATION......................................................... 11 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 1 AFC Consultants International Executive Summary The project consists in establishing a dry cleaning outlet in the Minieh-Donnieh Caza region in North of Lebanon. This outlet will cater to the Minieh-Donnieh Caza and North of Lebanon region and will reach its peak during the summer season where all the Lebanese expatriates come back for the summer to visit their families and a large number of vacationing residents from Tripoli and other areas come to spend the summer season. The initial investment for the project is estimated at $49,500 which includes $35,500 in dry cleaning equipment, $5,000 in generator, $2,000 in furniture, $2,000 in office equipment, and $5,000 in working capital. The main assumptions consider average daily cleaning of 25 pieces over an average period of 6 months. This is a conservative figure due to the high demand during the summer season and limited competition in the region. The success of the business will rely on a convenient and accessible location. The projections are taken over a period of 7 years. The dry cleaning outlet is expected to provide an average annual net profit of $8,086. It will be able to distribute dividends starting year 1. The dry cleaning outlet provides an internal rate of return (IRR) of 30% and a payback period of 4 years and 2 months. These results show that the project is feasible if it is well managed. A worst-case scenario was developed with the assumption of lower number of units from 25 pcs/day to 20 pcs/day for the dry cleaning outlet, gave an IRR of 22% and a payback period of 5 years and 6 months. A best-case scenario based on higher number of units per day from 25 pcs/day to 30 pcs/day provides the dry cleaning outlet an IRR of 37% and a payback period of 3 years and 5 months. The project will offer 2 full time job opportunities (including the project owner) and will provide a convenient dry cleaning facility in the Donnieh area. 2 Project description The project consists in establishing a dry cleaning outlet in Donnieh area in North of Lebanon. Currently, there is only one dry cleaning facility in the whole Donnieh area, which is also located at the borders of Minieh and is not convenient for the Donnieh residents. In fact, this facility could not be sufficient, especially during the summer season when all the vacationing people come to spend the summer season, running away from the heat on the coast. Dry cleaning is any cleaning process for clothing and textiles using an organic solvent rather than water. The solvent used is typically tetrachloroethylene (perchloroethylene), abbreviated "perc" in the industry and "dry-cleaning fluid" by the public. Dry cleaning is necessary for cleaning items which would otherwise be damaged by water and soap or detergent. It may be used if hand washing— needed for some delicate fabrics — is excessively laborious. The dry cleaner places cleaned clothes on metallic hangers, inside thin clear plastic garment bags before delivering to the clients. Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 2 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International 2.1 Dry cleaning process A dry cleaning machine is similar to a combination of a domestic washing machine, and clothes dryer. Garments are placed into a washing/extraction chamber (referred to as the basket, or drum), which is the core of the machine. The washing chamber contains a horizontal, perforated drum that rotates within an outer shell. The shell holds the solvent while the rotating drum holds the garment load. The basket capacity is between 9 and 36 kg of garments. During the wash cycle the chamber is filled approximately 1/3 full of solvent and begins to rotate, agitating the clothing. The solvent temperature is maintained at 29.4°C, as a higher temperature may extract dye from garments, causing color loss. During the wash cycle, the chamber is constantly fed a supply of fresh solvent from the working solvent tank while spent solvent is removed and sent to a filter unit comprising a distillation boiler and condenser. The ideal flow rate is roughly 8 liters of solvent per kilogram of garments per minute, depending on the size of the machine. Before being placed in the machine, garments are inspected for stains and soils by the operator. Depending on the nature of the soil, a catalyst may be applied to it. This depends on the operator's judgment of the makeup of the textile and the soil itself. Oil-based soils (such as grease, oil, or lipstick) typically are removed well by perchloroethylene, while water-based soils (such as coffee, wine, perspiration, blood, and semen) will need a catalyst to allow the dry cleaning solvent to emulsify and lift them. Food-based grease soils fall in between the two, and a milder catalyst may be applied. Garments are also checked for foreign objects. Items such as plastic pens will dissolve in the solvent bath and may damage textiles beyond recovery. Some textile dyes are "loose" (red being the main culprit), and will shed dye during solvent immersion. These will not be included in a load along with lighter colored textiles to avoid color transfer. The solvent used must be distilled to remove impurities that may transfer to clothing. Garments are checked for dry-cleaning compatibility, including fasteners. Many decorative fasteners either are not dry cleaning solvent proof or will not withstand the mechanical action of cleaning. These will be removed and re-stitched after the cleaning, or protected with a small padded protector. Fragile items, such as feather bedspreads or tasseled rugs or hangings may be enclosed in a loose mesh bag. The density of perchloroethylene is around 1.7 g/cm³ at room temperature (70% heavier than water), and the sheer weight of absorbed solvent may cause the textile to fail under normal force during the extraction cycle unless the mesh bag provides mechanical support. A typical wash cycle lasts for 8-15 minutes depending on the type of garments and amount of soiling. During the first three minutes, solvent-soluble soils dissolve into the perchloroethylene and loose, insoluble soil comes off. It takes approximately ten to twelve minutes after the loose soil has come off to remove the ground-in insoluble soil from garments. Machines using hydrocarbon solvents require a wash cycle of at least 25 minutes because of the much slower rate of solvation of solvent-soluble soils. A dry-cleaning surfactant "soap" may also be added. At the end of the wash cycle, the machine starts a rinse cycle, and the garment load is rinsed with fresh distilled solvent from the pure solvent tank. This pure solvent rinse prevents discoloration caused by soil particles being absorbed back onto the garment surface from the "dirty" working solvent. After the rinse cycle the machine begins the extraction process, which recovers dry-cleaning solvent for reuse. Modern machines recover approximately 99.99% of the solvent employed. The extraction cycle begins by draining the solvent from the washing chamber and accelerating the basket to 350 to 450 rpm, causing much of the solvent to spin free of the fabric. When no more solvent can be spun out, the machine starts the drying cycle. During the drying cycle, the garments are tumbled in a stream of warm air (145°F/63°C) that Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 3 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International circulates through the basket, evaporating any traces of solvent left after the spin cycle. The air temperature is controlled to prevent heat damage to the garments. The exhausted warm air from the machine then passes through a chiller unit, where solvent vapors are condensed and returned to the distilled solvent tank. Modern dry cleaning machines use a closed-loop system where the chilled air is reheated and re-circulated. This results in high solvent recovery rates and reduced air pollution. In the early days of dry cleaning, large amounts of perchlorethylene were vented to the atmosphere, because it was regarded as cheap and believed to be harmless. After the drying cycle is complete, a deodorizing (aeration) cycle cools the garments and removes the last traces of solvent, by circulating cool outside air over the garments and then through a vapor recovery filter made from activated carbon and polymer resins. After the aeration cycle, the garments are clean and ready for pressing/finishing. 2.2 Dry-cleaning wastes 3 Cooked muck - Cooked Powder Residue — the waste material generated by cooking down or distilling muck. Cooked powder residue is a hazardous waste and contains solvent, powdered filter material (diatomite), carbon, non-volatile residues, lint, dyes, grease, soils and water. This material should then be disposed of in accordance with the municipality. Sludge - The waste sludge or solid residue contains solvent, water, soils, carbon and other non-volatile residues. Still bottoms from chlorinated solvent dry cleaning operations are hazardous wastes. Environment - Perc is classified as a hazardous air contaminant by the EPA and must be handled as a hazardous waste. To prevent it from getting into drinking water, dry cleaners that use perc must take special precautions against site contamination. Market Analysis Minieh-Donnieh Caza region is a perfect location for the establishment of a Dry cleaning outlet as this part of the country has only two similar projects in Meriata which is located on the coastal part of the caza on the border between Minieh and Donnieh. For that matter it is advisable to locate this project towards the upper part of Donnieh, which does not have any dry cleaning facility. 3.1 Target market It is expected to have seasonal effects on the productivity of the dry-cleaning facility: During the summer season, some expatriates and locals that reside in the capital and other main cities come to spend the vacations in their native villages. Moreover, the region of Donnieh consists in a vacationing area for residents from the coast extending from Tripoli to Minieh and part of Akkar. These visitors’ flow will create increased demand for the dry-cleaning facility as they will need services for items such as: Suits Shirts Wedding events Curtain cleaning Dresses etc... Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 4 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International 3.2 SWOT Analysis STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES The dry cleaning facility will offer convenient, competitively priced, quality service to a number of villages in the area of Donnieh and part of Minieh. Since this business is repetitive, it is more likely to have repeat customers from season to season. Pressure on cash flows of the project as the revenues are not evenly spread throughout the year. It is expected to have most of the business from vacationers and expatriates coming to their villages on holidays and in the summer. OPPORTUNITIES THREATS The Donnieh area needs a dry cleaning facility as there is a large resident population from vacationers to visiting expatriates during the spring and summer months that require dry cleaning services. 2 similar projects on the coastal part of the caza in Meriata could add some pressure on the sales if the prices are not competitive or the quality of the service is not at least comparable. Joint ventures are possible to increase the business volume to serve nearby villages. Hence, small “satellite” shops could quickly mushroom to share the existing facility. The use of “easier to wash” fabrics might limit the use of the dry cleaning facility. The difficult economic and political situation in the country constitutes constant threat for Lebanese enterprises. 4 Marketing Plan The main marketing objectives include: • Direct contacts with local customers in order to quickly boost sales. • Providing an excellent service to ensure customer satisfaction for repetitive business. • It is very common to see a production facility share its resources (such as machinery, know-how, soap and chemicals etc…) with other dry clean outlets. These outlets would not have to heavily invest in machinery and would be able to quickly launch their business. In this case, the dry clean project owner would be able to significantly boost his turnover. • Need to differentiate the service from the existing two dry cleaning outlets that already exist in Meriata. That could be achieved by client awareness and excellent prices and quality of service. Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 5 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 5 AFC Consultants International Financial Plan This section details the calculations, assumptions and methodology used as a basis for the projections of the expected financial performance of the dry cleaner outlet. 5.1 Initial Investment Investment Requirements Description Quantity Industrial washing machine 20kg (used) Table for ironing (used) Drying press machine - 20kg (used) Professional dry/clean machine - 20kg Dryer machine - 20kg (used) Generator (used) Boiler sytem and exaust Installations of boiler system Spotting table Ventillation + ducting Computer and office equipment Furniture 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total costs of equipments Working capital needs Unit price Amount in $ 5,500 5,500 2,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 12,000 12,000 3,000 3,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 44,500 5,000 Total investment cost 49,500 The above table shows the various equipments needed for the establishment of the Dry cleaning shop facility. The initial investment for the project is estimated at $49,500 which include $35,500 in industrial equipment, $5,000 in generator, $2,000 in furniture, $2,000 in office equipment, and $5,000 in working capital. 5.2 Major assumptions The assumptions are conservative and are based on market achievable levels. They consider an average daily cleaning of 25 pieces over an average operating period of 6 months per year, which is a conservative figure due to the high demand and limited competition in the region. GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS Revenues assumptions price / item Shirts Pants Suits Dresses Coats Curtains Leather coats / shirts Blazers $1.3 $2.7 $8.0 $6.6 $6.6 $6.6 $16.6 $5 Totals Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project Percentage of sales Units per day 25 Total revenue / week 20% 30% 23% 10% 4% 2% 1% 10% 100% $39.8 $119.4 $274.6 $99.5 $39.8 $19.9 $24.9 $79.6 $697.5 6 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International The project assumes an average of 25 pieces of clothing per day for a 6 day/week schedule. The breakdown percentages of the items to be washed are also stated in the above mentioned table. From the 25 pcs per day we assumed that 30% of them were pants, 20% shirts, 23% suits etc…. The total sales revenue per week has been calculated to be approximately $697.5/week. The following revenue growth assumptions are taken for the subsequent years. Revenue growth assumptions Sales growth Total units per year Total units per day Year 1 3,900 25 Year 2 20% 4,680 30 Year 3 15% 5,382 35 Year 4 10% 5,920 38 Year 5 Year 6 5% 6,216 40 5% 6,527 42 Year 7 5% 6,853 44 The following table shows the main assumptions for the income statement: Income Statement Assumptions Working days Working weeks per year Working months per year Nylon garment bags (price/kg) Nylon bags weight per garment Hangers (box of 450 units) Soap price per kg Soap usage per garment Perclore (for dry clean) / 1 barrel Maintenance on equipment Fuel cost Electricity Annual rent-100 m2 premises Increase in rent every 3 years Annual increase in general expenses Annual increase in salaries Income Tax Rate 6 26 6 $3.1 40 $29 $1.7 20 $540 $100 15% 6% $2,000 10% 3% 2% 2% per week per year per year gr. 1 kg/day gr. /year /month of sales of sales /year As stated earlier, conservatively, the income statement is based on an average of 6 months of operations. Hence, it will be mainly operated during part of spring, summer and part of the fall season to accommodate the local and expatriates clients during the summer. An annual increase in general expenses of 3% is taken into account for inflation factors. The electricity expenses are estimated to represent 6% of sales. The fuel cost is assumed at an average of 15% of sales. Staff structure The dry cleaning facility will have two full-time jobs: one manager (the owner) and one full time “skilled” worker. We have to note that the shop will be operational only 6 months of the year, hence, the project incurs wages during 6 months only, although the owner would continue the operations alone during the low season. The manager/owner will be responsible for running the daily operations, developing new marketing strategies, as well as dealing with the clients while ensuring quality servicing. Moreover, the manager will be in charge of the accounting operations of the outlet. The manager/owner will not have a monthly salary but will be able to have dividends starting in year 1. Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 7 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International Furthermore, 1 skilled worker will be hired with a monthly salary of $300. 5.3 Projected Income Statement Dry Cleaning project Projected Income Statement Total revenues Sales revenues Total revenues Cost of materials-soap Cost of materials-packaging Electricity Fuel Maintenance of machines Total cost of sales Gross margin Gross profit margin % General & administrative expenses Salaries Rental charges Telephone expenses Other administrative costs Total General & Administrative Exp EBITDA Depreciation expenses Tax expenses Net Income Net profit Margin Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 18,135 18,135 673 735 1,088 2,720 600 5,816 12,319 68% 21,762 21,762 699 882 1,306 3,264 618 6,769 14,993 69% 25,027 25,027 723 1,014 1,502 3,754 637 7,629 17,397 70% 27,529 27,529 741 1,116 1,652 4,129 656 8,294 19,236 70% 28,906 28,906 751 1,171 1,734 4,336 675 8,668 20,238 70% 30,351 30,351 762 1,230 1,821 4,553 696 9,061 21,290 70% 31,869 31,869 773 1,291 1,912 4,780 716 9,473 22,395 70% 1,800 2,000 300 1,000 5,100 7,219 4,650 51 2,518 14% 1,836 2,000 309 1,030 5,175 9,818 4,650 103 5,065 23% 1,873 2,000 318 1,061 5,252 12,146 4,650 150 7,346 29% 1,910 2,200 328 1,093 5,531 13,705 4,650 181 8,874 32% 1,948 2,200 338 1,126 5,612 14,626 4,650 200 9,777 34% 1,987 2,200 348 1,159 5,694 15,596 4,250 227 11,119 37% 2,027 2,420 358 1,194 5,999 16,396 4,250 243 11,903 37% The income statement shows satisfactory income levels with an average net profit margin of 30% starting from year 1. Of course, these results will depend on the projected sales. In subsequent years, the dry cleaning outlet will benefit from increased marketing efforts by the manager, and repeat business. The company reaches a net profit that exceeds $7,000 in year 3. With constant marketing and networking efforts from the site manager, the project is expected to reach a sales volume of $28,906 by year 5, which would provide net profits exceeding $9,000 for that year. The projections are taken over a period of 7 years. The dry cleaning outlet is expected to provide an average annual net profit of $8,086. It will be able to distribute dividends starting in year 1. Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 8 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International 5.4 Projected Balance Sheet The balance sheet shows the projected assets and liabilities of the company. Dry Cleaning project Projected Balance Sheet Cash & Equivalents Accounts Receivable Current Assets Equipment Furniture Computer & office equipment Accumulated Depreciation Net Fixed Assets Total Assets Expenses payable Total Liabilities Invested Capital Retained Earnings Shareholders Equity Total Liab. & Shrholders Equity Stat. Of Retained Earnings Begin. Retained Earnings Net income Dividends Paid Ending Retained Earnings Year 1 Year 2 9,656 756 10,412 40,500 2,000 2,000 4,650 39,850 50,262 510 510 49,500 252 49,752 50,262 Year 1 2,518 2,266 252 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 14,669 907 15,576 40,500 2,000 2,000 9,300 35,200 50,776 518 518 49,500 758 50,258 50,776 19,925 1,043 20,968 40,500 2,000 2,000 13,950 30,550 51,518 525 525 49,500 1,493 50,993 51,518 25,386 1,147 26,533 40,500 2,000 2,000 18,600 25,900 52,433 553 553 49,500 2,380 51,880 52,433 30,965 1,204 32,169 40,500 2,000 2,000 23,250 21,250 53,419 561 561 49,500 3,358 52,858 53,419 36,275 1,265 37,539 40,500 2,000 2,000 27,500 17,000 54,539 569 569 49,500 4,470 53,970 54,539 41,682 1,328 43,010 40,500 2,000 2,000 31,750 12,750 55,760 600 600 49,500 5,660 55,160 55,760 Year 2 252 5,065 4,558 758 Year 3 758 7,346 6,611 1,493 Year 4 1,493 8,874 7,986 2,380 Year 5 2,380 9,777 8,799 3,358 Year 6 3,358 11,119 10,007 4,470 Year 7 4,470 11,903 10,713 5,660 The company is expected to start distributing dividends starting in year 1 at 90% of net profits. 5.5 Projected Cash Flows The following table shows the projected cash flows of the project. Dry Cleaning project STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS Net income Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash provided by operating activities Depreciation Change in receivables Change in payables Total Adjustments Cash provided by operating activities Cash Flow from Investing Activities Capital expenditures Investment in fixed assets Net cash used in investing activities Cash flow from financing activities Net Investment by owners Net borrowings & repayments of loans Dividends distributed Cash provided by financing activities Cash at beginning of year Changes in cash Cash at end of year Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 2,518 5,065 7,346 8,874 9,777 11,119 11,903 4,650 (756) 510 4,404 6,922 4,650 (151) 8 4,506 9,571 4,650 (136) 8 4,522 11,867 4,650 (104) 28 4,574 13,447 4,650 (57) 8 4,601 14,377 4,250 (60) 8 4,198 15,317 4,250 (63) 30 4,217 16,120 (44,500) (44,500) - - - - - - 49,500 (2,266) 47,234 (4,558) (4,558) (6,611) (6,611) (7,986) (7,986) (8,799) (8,799) 9,656 9,656 9,656 5,013 14,669 14,669 5,256 19,925 19,925 5,461 25,386 25,386 5,578 30,965 (10,007) (10,007) (10,713) (10,713) 30,965 5,310 36,275 36,275 5,408 41,682 The projected cash flows show the initial net investment in the equipment in year 1. This investment is financed by capital injection of $49,500. In the same year, the dry cleaning outlet starts operations and is able to start distributing dividends. Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 9 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International 5.6 Ratio analysis The following table shows the main financial ratios for the cold storage facility. Ratio Analysis Year 1 Current Ratio Working capital Profitability Ratios Gross Profit Margin Operating Profit Margin Net Profit Margin Financial Strength Total Debt to Owners' Equity Management Effectiveness Return on Average Assets Return On Average Equity=ROE Return on Investment = ROI Asset Management (Efficiency) Total Assets Turnover: Sales / total assets Total Debt to Total Assets Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 20.42 9,902 30.10 15,058 39.92 20,443 47.97 25,980 57.33 31,608 65.92 36,970 71.69 42,410 68% 40% 14% 69% 45% 23% 70% 49% 29% 70% 50% 32% 70% 51% 34% 70% 51% 37% 70% 51% 37% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 5% 5% 6% 10% 10% 14% 14% 14% 24% 17% 17% 34% 18% 18% 46% 20% 21% 65% 21% 22% 93% 36% 1.0% 43% 1.0% 49% 1.0% 53% 1.1% 54% 1.1% 56% 1.0% 57% 1.1% The current ratio, which is computed by dividing current assets by current liabilities, shows increasing and high levels throughout the years. The working capital is positive in all the years, confirming the ability of the company to meet its short term liabilities. The net profit margin increases gradually with the increased profitability. Starting year 2, this margin increases from 23% up to 37% in year 7. The return on average assets, which is computed by dividing net profits by total assets, shows how much profit the company is able to achieve from the use of its assets. This ratio reaches 18.3% by year 5 as the Dry cleaning shop achieves higher sales volume. The return on average investment shows healthy levels fueled by the growth in profitability. The average return on investment is around 15%. The total assets turnover shows how well the management is making use of its assets. The assets turnover is computed by dividing sales over total assets. This ratio shows satisfactory levels starting in year 2. The internal rate of return (IRR) is 30% and the payback period, which is the period necessary to pay back the investment, is 4 years and 2 months. These results show that the project is feasible. 5.7 Break-even analysis The following table shows the annual revenue levels needed for the Dry cleaning shop project to break even. Thus, an average of $14,529 in year 1 is a minimum level for the outlet to break even. Dry Cleaning project BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Total Revenues Total Variable Costs Total Fixed Costs 18,135 5,216 10,350 21,762 6,151 10,443 25,027 6,993 10,538 27,529 7,638 10,836 28,906 7,993 10,937 30,351 8,366 10,640 31,869 8,757 10,966 Break-even revenues 14,529 14,558 14,625 14,997 15,117 14,689 15,121 Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 10 LBN/B7-4100/IB/99/0225/JC20/0105 AFC Consultants International 5.8 Sensitivity analysis A worst-case scenario was developed with the assumption of lower turnover from 25 pcs/day to 20 pcs/day for the dry cleaning outlet, gave an IRR of 22% and a payback period of 5 years and 6 months. In this case, the business will have an average profitability of $4,271 annually. A best-case scenario was based on higher turnover up from 25 pcs/day to 30 pcs/day. This scenario provided the dry cleaning project an IRR of 37%, an average profitability and a payback period of 3 years and 5 months. Sensitivity Analysis Worst-case 20 pcs/day Most likely 25 pcs/day Best-case 30 pcs/day Average net income Average net profit margin 19% 30% 37% Internal rate of return Payback period in years 22% 5 years and 6 months 30% 4 years and 2 months 37% 3 years and 5 months 4,271 11,901 8,086 These results show that the project is feasible, especially if it is well-managed providing quality services and if the manager is able to market well the dry cleaning outlet to optimize the sales and leverage the project’s capacity. 6 Recommendations and key success factors In order to achieve satisfactory results, there are some key success factors that should be highlighted: 7 The management needs to invest in direct contacts and public relations efforts to attract the largest number of clients from neighboring villages to utilize the facility. The business should try to build a loyal clientele, which will come back every year. The manager needs to be able to operate on his own with the help of an additional skilled labor during high seasons in order for him to optimize his profit margins. The plant manager should ensure proper maintenance and regular daily cleaning services to keep the facility as clean and as efficient as possible. Economic Impact Evaluation The dry cleaning outlet will create 2 new jobs: one full time manager/owner and 1 skilled worker, thereby contributing positively to the socio-economic environment by offering new opportunities to Minieh-Donnieh caza citizens. Minieh-Donnieh Caza - Feasibility Study – Dry cleaning project 11