Weekly Credit Update
21 April 2015
Investment Research
www.danskebank.com/CI
Senior Analyst
Jakob Magnussen, CFA
+45 45 12 85 03
jakja@danskebank.com
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 22 of this report
Contents
- Market news
- Best and worst performers
- Trade ideas
- Company news
- Chart pack
- List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations
2
What’s on our mind
- General credit market news
• The credit markets had a downbeat session last weak leaving indices
somewhat wider. The iTraxx Main index widened 7bp, while the iTraxx
Crossover widened 27bp.
• The underperformance in the secondary markets is partly explained
by high activity in the primary markets and anticipation of further
substantial supply. This causes investors to conserve cash in order to
have fire-power for participation in the primary markets.
• The weaker spreads are also the result of weak macro numbers out of
both the EU and the US, flavoured by additional negative news relating
to Greece that saw its sovereign rating downgraded further to CCC+
by S&P. During the week there were several stories about Greek
reluctance to comply with troika demands.
• The Q1 earnings season has begun in the Nordic region with
bellwether SKF (UW) reporting earnings slightly below expectations
and providing a cautious outlook for Q2. Finnish telecom operator
Elisa (OW) reported stronger than expected numbers but also
provided a downbeat outlook for the rest of 2015.
• The M&A markets got a solid boost when Nokia announced that it will
acquire French Alcatel/Lucent, creating a significant global networks
provider. Agencies acknowledged the potential synergies and
competition benefits by upgrading Nokia’s ratings.
• The primary market remains open with several deals undertaken last
week including corporate hybrid deals from RWE and Bertelssmann.
Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
3
Best and worst performers
- Investment grade
1 week in local currencies
-16.2
-26.7
-10.7
-7.9
-7.6
-11.9
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2019
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB SEK…
-11.3
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2019
Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016
-11.0
Carlsberg Breweries A/S EUR 2019
SBAB Bank AB EUR 2016
-9.9
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2021
Fortum OYJ EUR 2016
-6.4
Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016
-9.7
-4.6
Vattenfall AB EUR 2016
-7.7
Fortum OYJ EUR 2016
-4.1
Elisa OYJ EUR 2021
-7.5
Danske Bank A/S EUR 2016
-4.1
Metso OYJ EUR 2019
-6.3
SBAB Bank AB EUR 2016
2.8
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027
4.9
Investor AB EUR 2021
2.8
BRFkredit A/S EUR 2018
5.0
Sampo Oyj EUR 2017
3.2
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2019
6.1
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2019
3.3
SKF AB EUR 2019
6.6
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017
4.6
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017
6.6
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
4.9
TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025
6.8
Swedbank AB EUR 2016
4.9
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2020
6.9
Swedbank AB EUR 2016
5.0
Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017
-5
-10
-15
-20
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
DNB Bank ASA EUR 2020
9.9
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2025
0
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
8.0
SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018
5.4
9.9
5
TDC A/S EUR 2015
Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020
-13.5
TDC A/S EUR 2015
-11.6
10
Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020
Danske Bank A/S SEK 2019
-12.1
15
1 month in local currencies
Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017
11.7
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Change in local currencies (bp)
4
Best and worst performers
- High yield
1 week in local currencies
-241
-161
-127
-230
Odfjell SE NOK 2015
-193
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2017
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2018
-187
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2016
-147
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
-132
Prosafe SE NOK 2020
-129
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2018
-65
Prosafe SE NOK 2018
-52
Beerenberg Holdco II AS NOK 2018
-86
Prosafe SE NOK 2018
-48
Odfjell SE NOK 2017
-79
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2019
-48
Prosafe SE NOK 2020
-75
Prosafe SE NOK 2019
-45
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2018
-71
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2016
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2018
24
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018
14
Stena International SA USD 2024
40
Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…
15
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2017
40
SAS AB SEK 2019
19
Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…
41
Stena AB USD 2024
21
Stena AB USD 2024
49
Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019
21
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018
53
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2017
36
Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019
74
Olympic Ship AS NOK 2017
45
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
86
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
13
SAS AB SEK 2019
145
0
-100
-200
-300
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD…
201
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD…
156
100
Odfjell SE NOK 2015
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2017
Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2016
-88
-73
200
1 month in local currencies
Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019
230
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Change in local currencies (bp)
5
Trade idea: Neste Oil Dec 2022 @ z-spread +162bp
Z-spd
•
Neste Oil’s Q4 14 numbers were weak due to
the rapid drop in the oil price. The recent
recovery in the oil price points to significant
improvement in Q1 numbers, though.
•
Underlying earnings in Neste Oil were strong
in Q4 fuelled by a strong refinery margin.
•
Neste Oil is committed to maintaining a solid
leverage level.
•
We upgraded Neste Oil to Overweight in
connection with the recently launched Scandi
Handbook.
•
The recently issued NESVFH 2022 trade
attractively relative to fair value curves. We
see Neste Oil as ‘BBB-’ rated indicatively but
the bond trades wider than the ‘BB+’ curve.
•
We recommend to BUY the NESVFH 2022s
outright or potentially funded by selling the
NESVFH 2019s that are less liquid.
•
Cyclicality, illiquidity and unrated premium in
bonds cannot justify the current spread level
of ASW+161bp in 22s.
200
'BB+' EU utilities
180
'BBB-' EU utilities
NESVFH 2.125% 22
160
140
NESVFH 4% 19
120
100
80
60
NESVFH 6% 16
NESVFH 4.875% 15
40
20
0
0
5
10
15
Years to
maturity
ask ASW spread
162
161
160
159
158
157
156
155
Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s, Danske Bank Markets
6
Recent trade ideas
Recent ideas
Type
Outright
Trade
Buy Neste Oil 2022
Idea
The Neste Oil 2022 trades wider than the 'BB+' curve
Opened
making it seem cheap relative to our shadow rating of
'BBB-'
21/04/2015
Start spread
Closed
161
13/04/2015
Start spread
Opened
225
19/03/2015
Start spread
Closed
245
10/03/2015
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
We believe that CITCON'3.75 trades at an attractive
Opened
level relative to the ‘BBB’ curve.
-2
27/02/2015
470
10/02/2015
Start spread
Opened
108
02/02/2015
Start spread
661
26/01/2015
Outright
Buy Akelius Residential 2019 The Akelius Residential SEK 2019 FRN 3M
Stibor+240bp trades wide relative to other similar
in SEK
Outright
Buy Vestas 2022.
Currency trade
Close of trade SSAB
Outright
Buy Tallink 2018.
Outright
CITCON '3.75
Outright
EGASDK '20
unrated SEK bonds.
The Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 trades cheap to a EUR
corporate ‘BBB’ curve.
Recent performance in the SSAB EUR bond has
closed the earlier 19bp gap between the EUR and the
SEK 2019 bonds.
FRN Tallink 2018 in NOK trades cheap to a global
median ‘BB-’ credit curve (converted into NOK).
EGASDK '20, which we see as 'B' indicatively, trades
way too cheap relative to the industrial 'B' curve.
Sector spread
Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB We have an Overweight recommendation on SEB and Opened
an Underweight recommendation on Nordea and we
AT1
do not believe a 14bp pick-up for a four-year maturity
See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage
shadow ratings and recommendations
extensionincluding
is worthwhile.
Start spread
-8
Source: Danske Bank Markets
7
Company news from the past week
Name
News
Implication
Neste Oil
Neste Oil (OW) reported an explosion in its Naantali refinery. The fire was quickly put out and Neste
Oil is now investigating the damages and the outlook for repair work. It seems the damages are minor
as there will only be an impact on the solvent output (a minor part of the output), i.e. no impact on the
fuel output. For reference Naantali comprises around 15% of Neste Oil's total traditional fuel output.
Overall this is a credit neutral event based on the information we got so far.
Credit Neutral
SKF
SKF (UW). Q1 result at first glance pretty much in line with expectations on both operating profit and sales.
We are somewhat disappointed about organic growth (1.4%), which we had expected to be higher than in
Q4 (1.8%) due to the strong auto sales (a key demand driver for bearings) both in Europe and the US. Still,
sales improved 16.3% y/y, the key driver not surprisingly being the currency boosting results by almost
15% y/y. The operating margin improved slightly y/y to 12.2% versus 11.4% due to SKF’s restructuring
programme being about 40% completed. SKF took a one-off of SEK655m during the quarter as a result of
this. On the back of a further contraction of interest rates in Europe the ballooning of SKF has not stopped
this quarter and SKF’s reported net debt to EBITDA is now at 3.2x, clearly too high for the BBB+ rating at
S&P. This will be the fourth consecutive quarter that SKF's leverage is above three and we see a very high
likelihood of a downgrade from S&P, perhaps even this quarter. We maintain our Underweight rating as
bonds do not trade in line with a downgrade risk.
Credit Negative
Carlsberg
Carlsberg (Marketweight) has done some asset swapping in Asia. WBG is a 50/50 joint venture between
the Carlsberg Group and Xinjiang Hops. In addition to direct ownership in WBG, Carlsberg owns 30% in
Xinjiang Hops. The acquisition is done through an asset swap, where Carlsberg will acquire Xinjiang Hops’
50% stake in WBG and dispose of the 30% stake in Xinjiang Hops. The transactions are inter-conditional,
and Carlsberg will receive a net cash proceed of approximately DKK200m upon completion. We believe
the credit impact is neutral. Carlsberg bonds have been supported by a stronger RUB in recent weeks. We
keep our Marketweight recommendation on Carlsberg.
Credit Neutral
Source: Danske Bank Markets
8
Company news from the past week
Name
Stockmann
Nokia
Getinge
News
Implication
Stockmann (DBM:’B+’). March sales +10% y/y but explained by timing of the Crazy Days campaign
(usually in April). We expected -10% but our estimate did not reflect the campaign timing, which has a
material impact. Fashion chains (not affected by campaign timing) were in line with DBM estimates of
-7% y/y. Overall this news is neutral for the credit, as sales that would normally have occurred in April
were simply moved to March. The last time that the campaign was in March (2007), Group March
sales were up 43% and April was down 22%. Furthermore, these sales entail lower profits for
Stockmann due to the large discounts given to consumers. We maintain our ‘B+’ rating on the name.
Credit Positive
Nokia (MW) announced that it intends to acquire Alcatel-Lucent in an all-share transaction valued at
EUR15.6bn. On completion, the combined group will have a combined market capitalisation of more than
EUR45bn and revenues of approximately EUR25.9bn, creating a player with similar scale as the two
industry leaders, Huawei and Ericsson. We see the deal as credit positive due to strategic rationale of
getting a foothold in both China and the US via Alcatel-Lucent’s operations as well as the inclusion of
Alcatel-Lucent’s higher margin IP routing business. The deal is expected to close in H1 16. Both Fitch and
S&P upgraded or changed their outlook with Fitch keeping its rating at BB and changing the outlook to
positive, while S&P upgraded Nokia to ‘BB+’ with a positive outlook.
Credit Positive
Swedish med tech company Getinge released Q1 earnings that were pretty poor. Continued margin
pressure across all areas and some further increase in debt. The new CEO said new financial targets will
be presented at the CMD on 31 August (we had expected in Q2). We are unlikely to change our ‘BB+/Neg’
after the report as we believe leverage is on the high side for our rating and we want to see a firmer
commitment to debt reduction. We are also a bit disappointed that the new CEO said he needs 100 days to
review the situation, we had expected more action in the near term.
Credit Negative
Source: Danske Bank Markets
9
Selected new issues
Selected new issues
Date
Issuer
Coupon
CCY Volume
16/04/2015
Bertelsmann Se & Co Kgaa
3.5%
EUR
600 m
16/04/2015
Bertelsmann Se & Co Kgaa
3%
EUR
650 m
14/04/2015
Rwe Ag
3.5%
EUR
550 m
14/04/2015
Rwe Ag
2.75%
EUR
16/04/2015
Edp Finance Bv
2%
16/04/2015
Intesa Sanpaolo Spa
14/04/2015
Maturity
BBB+ / Baa3 /
296
BBB+ / Baa3 /
264
Apr/75
BBB+ / (P)Baa3 /
325
700 m
Apr/75
BBB+ / (P)Baa3 /
264
EUR
750 m
Apr/25
BB+ / Baa3 / BBB-
155
2.855%
EUR
500 m
Apr/25
/ Ba1e / BBBe
240
Petroleos Mexicanos
1.875%
EUR
1 000 m
Apr/22
BBB+ / A3e / BBB+
14/04/2015
Petroleos Mexicanos
2.75%
EUR
1 250 m
Apr/27
BBB+ / A3e / BBB+
225
15/04/2015
Sbab Bank Ab
STIB3M +50bps
SEK
1 100 m
Apr/20
/ /
50
15/04/2015
Scania Cv Ab
STIB3M +100bps
SEK
2 000 m
Apr/17
A- / /
100
14/04/2015
Wihlborgs Fastigheter Ab
STIB3M +100bps
SEK
500 m
Apr/18
/ /
100
.
Source: Danske Bank Markets
Apr/75
S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM
10
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns
Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices
IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100
Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices
HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
11
Chart pack: relative value
iTraxx vs iBoxx
EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks
Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)
Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
12
Chart pack: general market development
European swap and government yields
3M TED-spread, US and euro area
Euro swap curve spread
EUR/USD basis swaps
Source: Macrobond, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
13
Chart pack: fund flows
Europe, net sales
US, net sales
Sweden, net sales
Norway, net sales
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
14
Chart pack: macro
GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted
Purchasing Manager Indices
Euro area y/y change in bank lending
Euro area lending standards
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
15
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Ahlstrom Oyj
Akelius Residential Property Ab
Ambu A/S
Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S
Arla Foods Amba
Atlas Copco Ab
Avinor As
Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As
Bank Norwegian As
Beerenberg Holdco Ii As
Billerudkorsnas Ab
Bw Offshore
Cargotec Oyj
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Cermaq Asa
Citycon Oyj
Color Group As
Com Hem Holding Ab
Corem Property Group Ab
Danfoss A/S
Danske Bank A/S
Dfds A/S
Dlg Finance As
Dna Ltd
Dnb Bank Asa
Dong Energy A/S
Dsv A/S
Eg Holding
Eika Boligkreditt As
Eika Gruppen As
Eksportfinans Asa
Electrolux Ab
Rating
B+
BBBBBBBBB+
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
Stable
BBBStable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
Stable
BB-
Stable
B+
BB-
Stable
B+
BBB
B
ABBB
Moody's
Rating Outlook
BBB+
Stable
Baa1
Stable
A
AA-
Stable
Stable
A2
A1
Stable
Stable
Baa2
Neg
Baa2
Stable
Fitch
Rating Outlook
Stable
BBB+
BBB
B
BBBBB+
BBB-
BBBBBBBB-
S&P
Rating Outlook
BBB
Stable
BB-
Stable
BBB
A
Stable
Neg
A3
BBB
Stable
A
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
A+
BBB+
Stable
Stable
A1
Baa1
BBBBBB
Pos
Stable
Ba3
Wr
Stable
BBB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
WD
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
Mads Rosendal
Louis Landeman
Jakob Magnussen
Brian Børsting
MARKETWEIGHT
Mads Rosendal
Mads Rosendal
UNDERWEIGHT
Ola Heldal
MARKETWEIGHT
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Øyvind Mossige
Mads Rosendal
Øyvind Mossige
Mads Rosendal
Brian Børsting
MARKETWEIGHT
Knut-Ivar Bakken
Emil Hjalmarsson
Niklas Ripa
Ola Heldal
Emil Hjalmarsson
Jakob Magnussen
Niklas Ripa
Mads Rosendal
Ola Heldal
T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHT
Jakob Magnussen MARKETWEIGHT
Brian Børsting
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
MARKETWEIGHT
16
Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Danske Bank
Company
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec
Elenia Oy
Elisa Oyj
Entra Eiendom As
AStable
Farstad Shipping Asa
BB
Neg
BBFingrid Oyj
Finnair Oyj
BB
Stable
Fortum Oyj
Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab
Fred Olsen Energy Asa
BB
Stable
BBG4S Plc
Getinge Ab
BB+
Neg
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd
BHeimstaden Ab
BB
Stable
BBHemso Fastighets Ab
BBB+
Stable
BBB
Hkscan Oyj
BB
Stable
Hoist Kredit Ab
BBStable
B+
Husqvarna Ab
BBBPos
Ikano Bank Ab
BBB
Stable
Investor Ab
Iss A/S
J Lauritzen A/S
B
Stable
BJernhusen Ab
AStable
Jyske Bank A/S
Kesko Oyj
BBB
Stable
Klaveness Ship Holding As
BBStable
B+
Loomis Ab
BBBStable
Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab
BBB+
Stable
Meda Ab
BBStable
Metsa Board Oyj
Metso Oyj
Ncc Ab
BBBStable
Neste Oil Oyj
BBBStable
Nokia Oyj
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
BBB+
Stable
Baa2
Stable
A+
Stable
A1
Stable
ABBB+
Stable
BBB-
Stable
A-
Stable
AABBB-
Stable
Pos
A1
A-
Stable
Baa
BB
BBB
Stable
Stable
B1
Baa2
Pos
Stable
BB+
Pos
Ba2
Pos
A2
Fitch
Rating Outlook
A+
Stable
A-
Neg
Stable
BB
Pos
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Øyvind Mossige
Jakob Magnussen
Brian Børsting
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
Sondre Stormyr
Louis Landeman
Emil Hjalmarsson
Brian Børsting
Gabriel Bergin
Emil Hjalmarsson
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
Brian Børsting
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Gabriel Bergin
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Brian Børsting
Louis Landeman
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
Mads Rosendal
Emil Hjalmarsson
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
17
Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Nokian Renkaat Oyj
Nordax Finans Ab
Nordea Bank Ab
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd
Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa
Norwegian Property Asa
Nykredit Bank A/S
Nynas Group
Ocean Yield Asa
Odfjell Se
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa
Orava Residential Reit Plc
Olympic Ship As
Orkla Asa
Outokumpu Oyj
Pohjola Bank Oyj
Posten Norge As
Postnord Ab
Prosafe Se
Ramirent Oyj
Sampo Oyj
Sandnes Sparebank
Sandvik Ab
Sas Ab
Sbab Bank Ab
Scania Ab
Schibsted Asa
Seadrill Ltd
Securitas Ab
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab
Skanska Ab
Skf Ab
Rating
BBB+
BBB-
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
Stable
BBBBBBB-
Neg
Neg
Stable
B+
B+
B+
BB
B+
BBB+
B+
B+
BBB+
B
Stable
B+
BBB
ABBB+
BB
BB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BBB
BB
BBB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
Pos
Pos
Stable
Neg
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Fitch
Rating Outlook
AA-
Neg
Aa3
AA-
Stable
A+
Neg
Baa
A
Stable
AA-
Neg
Aa3
Stable
A+
Stable
Baa2
Stable
Stable
Stable
B+
B
BBB
BA
A-
Neg
Stable
Neg
Stable
Wr
A2
BBB
A+
Stable
Neg
Wr
A1
BBB+
Neg
Baa1
BBA+
Stable
Stable
Pos
Analyst(s)
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
Ola Heldal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Jakob Magnussen
Øyvind Mossige
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Ola Heldal
Mads Rosendal
Øyvind Mossige
Ola Heldal
Mads Rosendal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Ola Heldal
Gabriel Bergin
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Mads Rosendal
Ola Heldal
Sondre Stormyr
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Emil Hjalmarsson
Mads Rosendal
Recomm.
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
18
Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Sognekraft As
Solstad Offshore Asa
Spar Nord Bank A/S
Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As
Sparebank 1 Nord Norge
Sparebank 1 Smn
Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa
Sponda Oyj
Ssab Ab
St1 Nordic Oy
Statkraft Sf
Statnett Sf
Statoil Asa
Steen & Strom As
Stena Ab
Stockmann Oyj Abp
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
Stora Enso Oyj
Storebrand Bank Asa
Storebrand Livsforsikring As
Sunnfjord Energi As
Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab
Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca
Svenska Handelsbanken Ab
Swedavia Ab
Swedbank Ab
Swedish Match Ab
Sydbank A/S
Saab Ab
Tallink Grupp As
Tdc A/S
Rating
BBB
BBBBB+
A-
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
BBB
Stable
B+
Stable
Stable
BBB-
Stable
BB
Stable
BBB+
Stable
B+
BB+
Stable
Stable
BBB+
Stable
BBBABBB
Stable
Stable
Stable
A-
BBB+
BB
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Aaa
A2
A2
A2
Fitch
Rating Outlook
A
AA-
BB-
Stable
AA+
AA-
Stable
Stable
Stable
Aaa
Wr
Aa2
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
Stable
B2
Stable
BB
BBB+
A-
Stable
Neg
Neg
Ba2
Nr
Baa1
Stable
AAA-
Stable
Neg
Baa1
Aa3
Stable
A+
BBB
Neg
Stable
A1
Baa2
Baa
Wr
BBB
Neg
Baa3
Stable
Stable
Stable
BB
WD
Stable
BBB-
AA-
Stable
A+
Pos
BBB
Neg
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
BBStable
Analyst(s)
Jakob Magnussen
Øyvind Mossige
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Emil Hjalmarsson
Mads Rosendal
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Niklas Ripa
Mads Rosendal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Mads Rosendal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Jakob Magnussen
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Gabriel Bergin
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Brian Børsting
T. Hovard / L. Holm
Emil Hjalmarsson
Niklas Ripa
Ola Heldal
Recomm.
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
19
Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Teekay Offshore Partners Lp
Tele2 Ab
Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson
Telenor Asa
Teliasonera Ab
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Thon Holding As
Tine Sa
Upm-Kymmene Oyj
Vasakronan Ab
Vattenfall Ab
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Victoria Park Ab
Volvo Ab
Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa
Yit Oyj
Rating
BBBBB
Danske Bank
Outlook Sr. Unsec
Stable
B+
Stable
BBB+
BBB+
Stable
Stable
A-
Stable
BBBBB-
Pos
Stable
BBBB
Stable
Neg
S&P
Rating Outlook
Moody's
Rating Outlook
Fitch
Rating Outlook
BBB+
A
ABBB
Stable
Stable
Stable
Neg
Baa1
A3
A3
Wr
Stable
Stable
Neg
BBB+
Stable
ABBB
Stable
Stable
BB+
Stable
Ba1
Stable
WD
A-
Stable
A3
Stable
A-
Neg
BBB
Neg
Baa2
Neg
BBB
Stable
B+
Analyst(s)
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Jakob Magnussen
Ola Heldal
Ola Heldal
Mads Rosendal
Emil Hjalmarsson
Jakob Magnussen
Niklas Ripa
Louis Landeman
Mads Rosendal
Bjørn Kristian Røed
Emil Hjalmarsson
Recomm.
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKET WEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
20
Fixed Income Credit Research team
Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst
Head of Credit Research
+45 45 12 85 05
hova@danskebank.com
Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst
Industrials
+45 45 12 85 19
brbr@danskebank.com
Ola Heldal, Senior Analyst
TMT
+47 85 40 84 33
olh@danskebank.com
Louis Landeman, Senior Analyst
TMT, Industrials
+46 8 568 80524
llan@danskebank.com
Lars Holm, Senior Analyst
Financials
+45 45 12 80 41
laho@danskebank.dk
Sondre Dale Stormyr, Senior Analyst
Offshore Rigs
+47 85 40 70 70
sost@danskebank.com
Mads Rosendal, Analyst
Industrials, Pulp & Paper
+46 8 568 80594
madro@danskebank.com
Gabriel Bergin, Analyst
Strategy, Industrials
+46 8 568 80602
gabe@danskebank.com
Henrik René Andresen, Senior Analyst
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 13 33 27
hena@danskebank.com
Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst
Utilities, Energy
+45 45 12 85 03
jakja@danskebank.com
Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst
High Yield, Industrials
+45 45 12 80 47
niri@danskebank.com
Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst
Oil Services
+47 85 40 54 91
omss@danskebank.com
Knut-Ivar Bakken, Senior Analyst
Fish Farming
+47 85 40 70 74
knb@danskebank.com
Bjørn Kristian Røed, Senior Analyst
Shipping
+47 85 40 70 72
bred@danskebank.com
Emil Hjalmarsson, Senior Analyst
Real Estate, Construction
+46 8 568 80634
emih@danskebank.com
21
Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is
Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst.
Analyst certification
Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the
research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further
certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
expressed in the research report.
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Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not
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See http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer for further disclosures and information.
22
General disclaimer
This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant
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The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date
hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor
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23
Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States
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Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the
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but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction.
Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting
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the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
24