Weekly Credit Update
1 March 2016
Analysts
Louis Landeman
+46 8 568 80524
llan@danskebank.com
Katrine Jensen
+45 45 12 80 56
katri@danskebank.com
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research
reports prepared for retail investors.
Investment Research
www.danskebank.com/CI
Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 36 of this report
Contents
- General credit market news and current themes
- Scandi high yield
- Scandi investment grade
- Credit indicators
- Coverage universe, credit ratings and recommendations
2
What's on our minds
- General credit market news
• The past week has indicated some further positive momentum
for corporate bonds and credit spreads have grinded tighter. The
most interesting transaction came in the corporate space as
Vodafone issued a total of EUR6bn of bonds with maturities
ranging from three to 10 years. In the largest corporate issue in
EUR for about a year, which attracted a total of EUR13.5bn of
orders, Vodafone offered investors both some new issue
concessions and the inclusion of a change of control clause.
• Positively, the US high-yield market has noted its second week in
a row of inflows (USD2.7bn). While not really large, it is still an
indication of investors now seeing value in the US high-yield
market at current yield levels. The market has also found some
new support from the recently rising oil price, which somewhat
improves the outlook for the struggling energy and oil sector.
• New macro data showed that Swedish GDP grew by a surprisingly
large amount in Q4 15, with year-on-year growth of 4.5%. We
have previously highlighted the benign outlook for the (Swedish)
real estate and construction sectors for 2016 and this supports
this view. Retail corporates focused on Sweden such as ICA
Gruppen (our rating 'BBB') and Lantmännen (our rating 'BBB-')
should also be beneficiaries. We believe that Lantmännen's SEK
Dec. 2020 bond is trading at an attractive level.
• This week we present a new trade idea on the Nov 2021 4.875%
EUR bond issued by Investor AB, which appears attractively
priced considering Investor's strong financial profile. See page
12 for further information.
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
3
Scandi high yield
4
Recent trade ideas (high yield)
Type
Outright
Trade
Buy Tallink NOK 2018 FRN
Outright
Sell DONG Energy call 2023
Outright
Buy Stena EUR2017
Outright
Buy SSAB EUR2019
Idea
Opened
Start spread
The long end of the DONG Energy hybrid curve is too
Opened
tight
Start spread
Attractive valuation 2017 bond. We remain underweight Opened
all other Stena bonds
Start spread
The SSAB EUR2019 currently trades at very attractive
Opened
levels compared with other outstanding SSAB bonds
Start spread
Trading at an attractive spread following recent
widening
and compared with the current 'BB-' rating from S&P
17 Feb 2016
455
18 Jan 2016
497
14 Jan 2016
467
13 Jan 2016
777
Outright
Buy Norwegian Air Shuttle
EUR2019
The Norwegian Air Shuttle EUR2019 currently trades
At very attractive levels compared with other
outstanding NAS bonds and compared with our
'B+'/NO shadow rating.
Opened
Start spread
7 Dec 2015
692
Switch
Buy Color Group NOK 2019,
Sell Tallink NOK 2018
Buy Color Group NOK 2019
Color Group spread pickup attractive versus Tallink
Switch
Sell Stena 2020,
Buy TDC hybrid
Fundamentally, we see increased credit risk in Stena
And recommend investors switch into names with
the same or stronger credit profiles such as TDC
(hybrid).
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
Opened
Start spread
27 Oct 2015
105
27 Oct 2015
569
1 Oct 2015
-27
Switch
Sell Stena 2020,
Buy Volvo hybrid
Fundamentally, we see increased credit risk in Stena
And recommend investors switch into names with
the same or stronger credit profiles such as
Volvo (hybrid).
Opened
Start spread
1 Oct 2015
6
Outright
Spread wide for the assessed rating
Source: Danske Bank Markets
See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations.
5
Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)
- High yield
1 month in local currencies
YTD in local currencies
-103 SSAB AB EUR 2019
-61 Meda AB SEK 2018
-82 Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2019
-51 Meda AB SEK 2019
-81 Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
-17 Hoist Kredit AB SEK 2016
-59
Meda AB SEK 2018
-50
Meda AB SEK 2019
-13 SSAB AB EUR 2019
-12 Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2019
-16 Fred Olsen Energy ASA NOK 2019
2
Beerenberg Holdco II AS NOK 2018
-12 Stena AB EUR 2017
4
Akelius Residential Property AB SEK…
1
Ahlstrom OYJ EUR 2019
6
Stora Enso OYJ SEK 2017
3
Nokia OYJ USD 2019
9
Ahlstrom OYJ EUR 2019
3
Akelius Residential Property AB SEK…
16
Prosafe SE NOK 2017
948
Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019
2,616
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
1,024
Orava Residential REIT PLC EUR 2020
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
2,088
1,141
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2020
2,691
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2018
1,183
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019
2,691
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2018
2,522
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2018
2,522
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2018
Seadrill Ltd USD 2017
2,848
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2019
1,649
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018
2,939
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2017
3,192
Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2017
3,275
Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018
3,108
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2017
3,331
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2017
3,108
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2017
3,331
BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2017
2,850
3500 30002500 20001500 1000 500
0
-500
Change in local currencies (bp)
3500
2500
1500
500
-500
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
6
Danske Bank Markets Nordic High-Yield Index
• Last week, we saw volatility in the European high-yield
markets. iTraxx Crossover started last week at 426bp,
peaked intra-week at 443bp and ended the week unchanged
at 426bp. The market seems sensitive to negative news at
the moment.
• At the deadline for this publication iTraxx Crossover is trading
around 429bp – a slight widening from last week.
• The ASW on our DBM High-Yield Index tightened moderately
(-4bp) over the week.
• We saw no new issuance on the Scandi high-yield markets
last week. We are still awaiting the first major Scandi highyield transaction in 2016.
Danske Bank Markets Nordic High-Yield Index
106.0
104.0
102.0
100.0
98.0
96.0
94.0
Dec/2014 Mar/2015 Jun/2015 Sep/2015 Dec/2015
625
600
575
550
525
500
475
450
425
400
375
350
325
300
DBM Hedged EUR Nordic HY Index Value
DBM Nordic HY Index, ASW-spread (bps). RHS
Key index statistics
Date
Yield
ASW spread, bps
# Bonds
AVG credit rating
Avg duration
TR since start
TR YTD
TR MTD
Index sector breakdown
Index start
Index end
Change
31/Dec/2014 26/Feb/2016
5.9%
430
596
166
107
BB
2.9
-1.7%
-3.1%
-0.7%
Real estate
13%
Utilities
7%
Technology
2%
Basic
Materials
12%
Communicat
ions
8%
Consumer,
non-cycli.
10%
Consumer,
Cyclical
9%
Industrial
19%
Energy
14%
Diversified
4%
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets [all tables and charts]
7
Recent Nordic high-yield issuance
Selected new issues (High Yield)
Date
Issuer
Coupon
16/02/2016
Studsvik Ab
STIB3M +650bps
SEK
300 m
Feb/19
/ /
650
03/02/2016
Scandi Biogas Fuels
STIB3M +975bps
SEK
200 m
Feb/20
/ /
975
25/01/2016
Moberg Pharma
STIB3M +600bps
SEK
300 m
Jan/21
/ /
600
15/12/2015
Bulk Industrier As
NIBOR3M +700bps
NOK
200 m
Dec/18
/ /
700
15/12/2015
Bong Ab
10%
SEK
200 m
Dec/18
/ /
1024
11/12/2015
Barcode 121 Holding Ag
3.75%
NOK
2 535 m
Dec/24
/ /
232
11/12/2015
B121 Holding As
5.75%
NOK
390 m
Dec/20
/ /
444
10/12/2015
Stockmann Ab (Hybrid)
7.75%
EUR
85 m
PERP
/ /
717
09/12/2015
West Atlantic Ab
6.5%
SEK
850 m
Dec/19
/ /
611
01/12/2015
Norwegian Air Shuttle As
7.25%
EUR
125 m
Dec/19
/ /
700
19/11/2015
Ab Stena Metall Finans
STIB3M +350bps
SEK
1 000 m
Nov/20
/ /
350
17/11/2015
Jefast Holding Ab
STIB3M +650bps
SEK
200 m
Jan/19
/ /
650
13/11/2015
Vattenfall Ab (Hybrid)
6.1%
USD
400 m
Nov/78
BB+ / Baa2 /*- / BBB-
406
0.125%
EUR
340 m
Nov/20
/ /
-
29/10/2015 Marine Harvest Asa (Convertible)
CCY Volume
Maturity
S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM
26/10/2015
Ssab Ab
STIB3M +250bps
SEK
300 m
Apr/18
BB- *- / /
250
21/10/2015
Verisure Holding Ab
STIB3M +725bps
SEK
2 816 m
Oct/23
CCC+ / B1 /
725
21/10/2015
Verisure Holding Ab
EUR003M +725bps
EUR
400 m
Oct/23
CCC+ / B1 /
725
23/10/2015
Verisure Holding Ab
6%
EUR
700 m
Nov/22
B / B1 /
591
01/10/2015
Finnair Oyj (Hybrid)
7.875%
EUR
200 m
PERP
/ /
754
16/09/2015
Akelius Residential Ab
3.375%
EUR
300 m
Sep/20
BB+ / /
300
03/09/2015
Lock As
7%
EUR
30 m
Aug/21
B+ / /
505
03/09/2015
Lock As
5.5%
EUR
200 m
Aug/20
B+ / B2 /
550
03/09/2015
Np3 Fastigheter
STIB3M +490bps
SEK
300 m
Oct/18
/ /
490
02/09/2015
Sagax Ab
EUR006M +350bps
EUR
30 m
Sep/20
/ /
350
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
8
Company news from the past week (high yield)
Name
News
Implication
FastPartner
FastPartner (Danske rating 'BB/BB-') reported strong Q4 earnings on Thursday. During Q4, rental
income rose by 27%, with 29% growth in operating profit. Growth came mainly from earlier acquired
properties. Like other property companies, there was a valuation gain in the property portfolio in the
quarter (SEK118m) due to lower required yields. Further property acquisitions were made in the
quarter but the net LTV remained unchanged from Q3 at 63% (65% if we also include 50% of
preference shares in debt). All in all, the Q4 performance supports our 'BB' credit view on FastPartner
with its bonds at 'BB-' due to structural subordination.
Credit positive
REM Offshore
We downgrade REM Offshore from 'B-' to 'CCC+'. Supporting the credit is the asset base, while the
fleet composition, diversity in terms of assets and geography and high financial leverage all weigh
negatively.
Credit negative
Beerenberg
Beerenberg delivered another strong quarterly result, with strong margins and solid cash generation.
The order backlog has increased significantly and is now at approximately NOK13bn, providing good
visibility for coming years. The company is still involved with tenders and retenders of the existing
backlog and we argue that strong cost control and good margins bode well for its competitiveness
when fighting for increased market share. We increase our estimates for 2016-17 and highlight
strong revenue coverage, solid cash flow generation and liquidity, in addition to a comfortable loan-tovalue ratio based on average industry multiples.
Credit positive
Seadrill
Seadrill's ('B-' unsecured) Q4 15 EBITDA of USD513m was in line with SME Direkt consensus and 5%
ahead of our estimate, on a good operating quarter. The company said 2016 liquidity is good (as we
expected) and that it aims to communicate its 'funding plans' in the first half of 2016 (we expect
nothing until the Q1 16 report in late May at the earliest). Sevan Driller's contract in Brazil was
suspended on 1 December 2015, as commercial negotiations with Petrobras continue (the rig was a
termination candidate in Petrobras' fleet, contract ending June 2016). Seadrill announced USD260m
of sustainable cost savings in 2016 versus 2015, 13% of the 2015 cost base and 11% of 2016
EBITDA (we expected USD200m) and said it intends to take no rig deliveries in 2016 (as we expected).
Q1 16 EBITDA guidance of USD450m is in line with our estimate. All in all, we consider the results
fairly neutral versus expectations.
Credit neutral
Source: Danske Bank Markets
9
Company news from the past week (high yield)
Name
News
Implication
J. Lauritzen
J. Lauritzen ('B/B-') reported EBITDA of USD-11m versus our estimate of USD-18.3m. Net profit was
USD-24m versus our estimate of USD-30.1m when adjusting for USD130.6m of impairment costs.
The cash position is stronger than we feared at USD115.5m and net debt was USD284m, largely in
line with our estimate of USD287m. More importantly, J. Lauritzen has agreed with Lauritzen Fonden
to inject new capital of approximately USD19m and transfer a number of non-strategic assets and
obligations to LF Investment ApS, which is wholly owned by Laurtizen Fonden. The transactions
provide J. Lauritzen with additional cash of USD125m in 2016 and the assets have a combined book
value of USD105.9m. Importantly, the transaction includes transfer of the shareholding in Axis
Offshore, which represented a key risk for the J. Lauritzen credit related to a potential USD53m of
capex outlays this year. Our first take is that this is clearly positive for the J. Lauritzen credit. The
company guides that 2016 EBITDA will be similar to 2015 EBITDA, which does not surprise us, as, in
our view, rates for its Dry Bulk division cannot drop much more. We believe the 2016 results will be
positively affected by reduced depreciation following the sale of assets and net finance will be reduced
after debt repayments and deleveraging of its balance sheet. The company continues to sell assets
and get rid of debt, as its close to impossible to survive in the current dry bulk market with a debt-laden
balance sheet. The company has sold nine owned and five part-owned dry bulk vessels. NIBD equals
57% of broker values, which is positive. The company's 5.1% stake in Hafnia Tankers, currently valued
at USD26.4m, has also been transferred to Lauritzen Fonden (Lf Investment ApS).
Credit positive
SSAB
SSAB (UW): As expected S&P downgraded SSAB one notch last Monday from 'BB-' to 'B+'. However,
somewhat surprisingly, S&P has kept SSAB on CreditWatch negative, which indicates that it could
make another downgrade very soon, unless market conditions begin to improve. We had thought it
would change the outlook to negative, which would have given SSAB slightly more time to turn things
around. The hope for SSAB now is that the recently implemented EU tariffs on cold-rolled steel will
start to push prices up but such measures are not always as effective as anticipated. We keep our
Underweight recommendation on SSAB and we expect this to affect spreads negatively.
Credit negative
Nynas
Nynas's Q4 15 results were strong. Clean EBITDA improved significantly due to higher sales volumes
and margin expansion. Nynas was able to continue its deleveraging despite higher capex and a
seasonally weak quarter. Current credit metrics are now very strong relative to our 'B+' shadow rating
but we need to see more stability before upgrading. Overall, we view this as a credit positive report
from Nynas and we still think the NYNAAB 18s look attractive.
Credit positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
10
Scandi investment grade
11
Buy Investor AB 2021 (EUR) – spread far too wide
Published on 29 February 2016
Key arguments for the trade
•
We believe the spread on the INVSA 2021 is too wide.
Compared with average spreads for industrials with high
(AA) ratings, the INVSA '21 is trading much too wide.
•
Recent decoupling from average AA spread. Investor
was hurt by the widening trend late last year, widening
significantly relative to average AA corporate spreads
•
Stable credit quality. It could be argued that Investor has
been hurt by recent sell-off in bank stocks (it is a key
shareholder of SEB) but the company's AA/Aa3 ratings
are well anchored and recent deleveraging underpins the
strong financial position in this environment
•
Recommendation. We particularly like the INVSA
4.875% EUR bond maturing in 2021 but note that the '23
is also wide compared with rating category averages. We
currently have an Overweight recommendation on INVSA
bonds.
Strong Q4 report. In late January, Investor released a
strong report for Q4 with significant deleveraging in
2015, leaving it well prepared for market turmoil
•
Relative value (EUR), indicative mid spreads
Credit spread development
Mid Spread
(EUR)*
100
100
50
90
45
80
40
70
35
60
30
50
25
40
20
30
15
20
10
10
5
90
80
INVSA 4.875%
'21 (EUR)INVSA 4.5% '23
(EUR)
70
Industrials A+
60
50
40
30
20
INVSA FRN '17
(SEK)
INVSA 5.25% '19
INVSA 3.25% (SEK)
'18
(EUR)
INVSA 6.08% '19
(NOK)
Industrials AA's
INVSA 5.25% '22
(NOK)
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
* Z-spreads. OAS for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worst
11
YTW**
12
Note: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European issuers
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
0
Jan-15
0
Feb-15
Apr-15
INVSA_EUR : 5Y
Jun-15
Jul-15
AA_CORP_EUR : 5Y
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
Sep-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
INVSA_EUR : 5Y - AA_CORP_EUR : 5Y
Buy SEB EUR 0.75% 2021 – attractive pickup from a relative value perspective
Published on 25 February 2016
Key arguments for the trade
•
Attractive pickup. The ask price indicates 10bp to the EUR
Financials senior AA- curve (mid) and 8bp to SEB EUR 2%
'21 (mid) for six months longer maturity.
•
New issue still trading wider than incumbents. Issued a
week ago at +73 versus mid swaps, the SEB 0.75% '21 still
trades wide compared with other Swedish banks' senior
bonds with similar maturities. In our view, it should tighten
to their level in coming months and trade closer to the EUR
Financials senior AA- curve like its shorter maturities.
See relative value chart on next page
•
A clean play on the Swedish economy. While Nordea's
2023 new issue also trades wider than the AA- curve, we
prefer SEB due to Nordea's diversification leaving it
vulnerable (exposure to energy, shipping, Russia and Finland
and risk related to loss guarantee to divested business in
Poland).
•
New issue risk. Most large Nordic banks have been in the
EUR senior market with a 5-7Y maturity bond since
December, except Danske Bank and Swedbank, so SWEDA
0.625% '21 and SWEDA1% '22 are more exposed to new
issue risk.
Buy SEB EUR 0.75% 2021 – attractive pickup from a relative value perspective
Published on 25 February 2016
Ask Spread (EUR)*
100
90
Financials senior A+
80
NDASS (Aa3/AA-) 1.125% '25
Financials senior AA-
NDASS (Aa3e/AA-) 1% '23
70
SWEDA (Aa3/AA-) 1% '22
SHBASS (Aa2/AA-) 1.125% '22
NDASS (Aa3/AA-) 3.25% '22
SEB (Aa3e/A+) 0.75% '21
60
SWEDA (Aa3/AA-) 0.625% '21
50
SEB (Aa3/A+) 2% '21 SHBASS (Aa2/NR) 2.625% '22
SEB (Aa3/A+) 1.875% '19
SHBASS (Aa2/NR) 2.25% '20
40
SWEDA (Aa3/AA-) 1.5% '19
NDASS (Aa3/AA-) 4% '20
30
SHBASS (Aa2/AA-) 2.25% '18
NDASS (Aa3/AA-) 1.375% '18
SEB (Aa3/A+) 4.25% '18
SEB (Aa3/A+) 3.875% '17
SHBASS (Aa2/AA-) 3.375% '17
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worst
Note: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European issuers
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
8
9
10
YTW**
Recent trade ideas (investment grade)
Type
Outright
Trade
Buy INVSA EUR 4.875% 2021
Outright
Buy SEB EUR 0.75% 2021
Outright
Buy NYKRE T2 CoCo '36 (first
call '21) (revisited)
Outright
Buy DNA EUR 2021
Outright
Buy DNA EUR 2018
Outright
Buy DFDS NOK FRN 2016
Outright
Close of buy Neste EUR2022
Switch
Buy Securitas EUR 2021, Sell
G4S EUR 2018
Idea
Spread on the INVSA 2021 has widened recently and is Opened
too wide compared with average spreads for industrials Start spread
with high (AA) ratings.
Ask price indicates an attractive 10bp pickup to EUR
Opened
Financials senior AA-curve (mid) and a 8bp pickup to
Start spread
SEB EUR 2% '21 (mid) for six months longer maturity.
Nykredit has issued a tier 2 bond as a CoCo with a 7%
trigger. We believe the T2 CoCo trades at a discount
to peers because of the CoCo feature.
We see attractive value in the DNA 2021s.
29 Feb 2016
86
25 Feb 2016
67
Opened
Start spread
2 Feb 2016
406
Opened
Start spread
We see attractive value in the DNA 2018s.
Opened
Start spread
Short FRN trades attractively on both an RV and
Opened
absolute basis.
Start spread
We close our Buy Neste 22s trade recommendation. Opened
Start spread
One notch higher rating and no risk of near-term M&A Opened
for Securitas means the pickup is attractive.
Start spread
25 Jan 2016
175
25 Jan 2016
114
30 Nov 2015
86
16 Nov 2015
161
9 Nov 2015
16
Source: Danske Bank Markets
See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations
15
Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)
- Investment grade
1 week in local currencies
-8
Jyske Bank A/S EUR 2018
-20
Vestas Wind Systems A/S EUR 2022
-7
Sampo Oyj SEK 2020
-10
Statoil ASA EUR 2025
-7
Statoil ASA EUR 2025
-9
DONG Energy A/S EUR 2021
Svenska Handelsbanken AB EUR 2022
-8
Vattenfall AB EUR 2019
-3
DONG Energy A/S EUR 2021
-8
Statkraft AS EUR 2019
-3
Svenska Handelsbanken AB EUR 2022
-8
Elisa OYJ EUR 2021
-3
Svenska Handelsbanken AB EUR 2021
-7
DONG Energy A/S EUR 2019
-3
Swedbank AB EUR 2022
-7
Telenor ASA EUR 2020
-3
Telenor ASA EUR 2018
-7
Telenor ASA EUR 2018
-2
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2017
-6
Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA EUR 2023
-5
Danske Bank A/S EUR 2017
19
Danske Bank A/S EUR 2020
Scania CV AB SEK 2017
19
Metso OYJ EUR 2019
14
Nibe Industrier AB SEK 2020
19
Pohjola Bank Oyj EUR 2020
15
Nibe Industrier AB SEK 2019
20
Kemira OYJ EUR 2022
10
12
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
17
20
1 month in local currencies
Swedbank AB EUR 2022
22
18
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
24
DNB Bank ASA EUR 2021
18
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
24
Nordea Bank AB EUR 2022
18
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
18
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
18
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Change in local currencies (bp)
Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…
31
Sampo Oyj EUR 2021
31
Sampo Oyj SEK 2020
60
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Change in local currencies (bp)
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)
16
Selected new investment-grade issues
Date
Issuer
Coupon
CCY Volume
Maturity
S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM
26/02/2016
Danske Bank A/S
EUR003M +90bp
EUR
100m
Mar-18
A / A2 / A
26/02/2016
Unicredit SPA
2%
EUR
1,000m
Mar-23
BBB- / Baa1e / BBB+e
190
25/02/2016
Ubs Group Funding
2.125%
EUR
750m
Mar-24
/ Baa2 / Ae
190
24/02/2016
LVB International Finance
1.875%
EUR
750m
Mar-22
BBB / Baa1 /
182
24/02/2016
Kragero Sparebank
NIBOR3M +125bp
NOK
100m
Feb-18
/ /
125
23/02/2016
Uppsalahem AB
STIB3M +97bp
SEK
300m
Mar-20
AA- / /
22/02/2016
Vodafone Group plc
1.25%
EUR
1,250m
Aug-21
BBB+ / Baa1 / BBB+e
123
22/02/2016
Vodafone Group plc
1.75%
EUR
1,250m
Aug-23
BBB+ / Baa1 / BBB+e
148
22/02/2016
Vodafone Group plc
2.2%
EUR
1,750m
Aug-26
BBB+ / Baa1 / BBB+e
172
22/02/2016
Vodafone Group plc
EUR003M +95bp
EUR
1,750m
Feb-19
BBB+ / Baa1 / BBB+e
95
22/02/2016
Deutsche Bahn Finance BV
0.75%
EUR
500m
Mar-26
/ Aa1e /
28
22/02/2016
Sveaskog AB
1.49%
SEK
700m
Mar-21
/ /
-
22/02/2016
Sveaskog AB
STIB3M +120bp
SEK
300m
Mar-21
/ /
120
22/02/2016
Skandiabanken ASA
NIBOR3M +58bp
NOK
300m
Feb-17
/ A3 /
90
97
58
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets
17
Company news from the past week (investment grade)
Name
News
Implication
Statkraft
Statkraft's (MW) 'A-' rating has been lowered to negative outlook from stable. Just like Vattenfall, this
reflects relatively weak current financial metrics coupled with fading power prices in Norway.
However, this is partially offset by Statkraft's high share of fixed price contracts in Norway and a highly
flexible capex budget. Statkraft has stated that it targets maintaining its current S&P rating, so it will
be interesting to see whether the company will undertake further capex reductions.
Credit negative
Vattenfall
Vattenfall's (MW) 'BBB+' rating has been put on watch negative from negative outlook. This follows a
revision of S&P's outlook for European utilities in the wake of lower power prices and a tough
regulatory regime, especially in Germany. Given Vattenfall's exposure to Germany and its current weak
financial metrics, the negative rating action should not come as a complete surprise to the market.
S&P expects to resolve the negative watch within 90 days.
Credit negative
Nokian Tyres
Nokian Tyres (NR) is potentially involved in a VW-type manipulation scandal. According to Finnish
media, Nokian Tyres has for years been sending high-quality tyres for official quality stamps, while
sending out tyres of lower quality to its retailers. As such, this story draws parallels with the VW
‘Diesel-gate’ scandal, which led to significant losses on VW’s share price and multi-notch downgrades
of its ratings. So far, there has been no comment from Nokian Tyres but the share prices has fallen
over 10%. This is credit negative given what we know now. Should this story prove to have some merit,
it would be likely to cause us to adjust our ‘BBB+’ shadow rating on Nokian Tyres.
Credit negative
TVO
TVO (OW) gets some positive signals from Areva’s FY 2015 results. In its report, Areva mentions it
has taken an additional impairment on the OL3 project of EUR905m. Among other things, this reflects
‘the probable impact of initiated discussions with the customer aiming at ensuring the completion of
the OL3 project and to settle the disputes’. This could be a signal that Areva is willing to pay some
degree of damages to TVO regarding the much-delayed OL3 project. To recap.,TVO has sued Areva for
EUR2.6bn for the delay, while Areva has sued TVO for EUR3.5bn blaming it for being responsible for
the delay. On another positive note, Areva confirmed it continues to expect a start-up in late 2018, in
line with previous communications. Overall, this is slightly positive newsflow for TVO. This said, the
weak Areva report also illustrates the poor condition it is in and that it is quite dependant on economic
help from France and/or EdF. Given the importance of the nuclear industry for France, we expect
France to provide the help needed to keep Areva alive. This said, we caution that continued weakness
in Areva could jeopardise the construction timeline for OL3, which would be credit negative.
Credit positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
18
Company news from the past week (investment grade)
Name
News
Implication
Swedish banks
The Swedish FSA released its supervisory report on Thursday last week. It included nothing new when
it comes to risk weights, as the FSA is still looking into the banks’ internal models. However, it says
that it has found defects in the current models and expects to come up with solutions for these in the
near term. So, we still expect higher risk weights shortly, probably as a Pillar 2 add-on. This said, the
big unknown continues to be Basel 4, which we expect news on at the end of 2016, so status quo.
Credit neutral
Nordic banks
On Wednesday evening, the EBA announced the conditions for this year's stress test of the European
banks. It looks likely to be a relatively uneventful exercise, as the stressed capital ratios will not be disclosed
to the market but instead used by the authorities to asses the individual banks' capital requirements. Even
so, this stress test is normally a non-event for the Nordic banks as they tend to pass with flying colors. We
expect the test to be finalised in Q3. All Nordic banks down to Sydbank are due to participate.
Credit neutral
TeliaSonera
TeliaSonera (UW): Reports suggest Telia may soon receive a bid for its Spanish division (Yoigo) from
Masmovil, indicating offers could lie in the EUR500-600m (c. SEK5-6bn) range. Telia has been trying
to sell the unit since 2012 but withdrew it from sale due to a lack of attractive offers. If Telia manages
to sell both Yoigo and its debt colleting agency (Sergel), it could reduce leverage by some SEK7-8bn,
corresponding to roughly 0.2x in adjusted net debt to EBITDA. As Yoigi (Spain) is Telia’s worstperforming unit, the loss at the EBITDA level would be minor (Yoiga had an EBITDA margin of c.9.5% in
2015 compared with c.29% at a group level). Overall, we consider this positive and believe it should
take a little pressure off the negative outlook from Moody’s.
TeliaSonera
TeliaSonera (UW): Possible divestment of Sergel could bring in c.SEK1.5-2.0bn. Potential buyers
include Arvato, Lindorff and Intrum Justitia according to reports. Telia's A3 rating is currently on
watch negative at Moody's and the amount from this sale is unlikely to remove this. However, it is still
a sign of good faith from Telia and, in our view, it is likely it would not be too worried about a downgrade
as the group officially targets an ‘A-’ to ‘BBB+’ rating. We maintain our Underweight recommendation.
Credit neutral
Sydbank
Sydbank’s Q4 results were relatively uneventful in our view but once again highlighted the good asset
quality story in the bank. With only one remaining senior EUR benchmark bond outstanding (maturing
in October 2016), we remain neutral on the name. Hence, our Marketweight recommendation.
Credit positive
Credit positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
19
Company news from the past week (investment grade)
Name
News
Implication
Jyske Bank
With its profits already preannounced, Jyske reported slightly better quality Q4 15 results than we
expected, with an increase in core income. Asset quality continued to improve and liquidity remained
sound. Despite an increase in the planned capital distribution to shareholders in 2016, Jyske
remained well capitalised and it again stated that it will explore opportunities to issue subordinated
capital in coming quarters. We prefer Jyske over its peers due to larger earnings visibility and
expectations of continued improved asset quality and thus keep our Overweight recommendation.
Credit positive
Source: Danske Bank Markets
20
Credit indicators
Credit Indicators
21
Chart pack: euro spreads and returns
Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices
IG total return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100
Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices
HY total return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
22
Chart pack: relative value
iTraxx vs iBoxx
EUR CDS spreads – Nordic banks
Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit)
Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
23
Chart pack: general market development
European swap and government yields
3M Libor, US and euro area
Euro swap curve spread
EUR/USD basis swaps
Source: Macrobond Financial , Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
24
Chart pack: high-yield funds flow
High-yield Europe ETF fund flow
High yield US ETF fund flow
Cumulative ETF-flow MEUR
Cumulative ETF-flow MEUR
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Dec-2014
Mar-2015
Jun-2015
Sep-2015
High Yield - Europe - Fixed Income
Dec-2015
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
Dec-2014
Mar-2015
Jun-2015
Sep-2015
Dec-2015
High Yield - North America - Fixed Income
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
25
Chart pack: fund flows
Europe, net sales
US, net sales
Sweden, net sales
Norway, net sales
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
26
Chart pack: macro
GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted
Purchasing Manager Indices
Euro area y/y change in bank lending
Euro area lending standards
Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]
27
Coverage universe, credit ratings
and recommendations
28
Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Ahlstrom Oyj
Akelius Residential Property Ab
Aktia Bank Oyj
Alandsbanken Abp
Ambu A/S
Ap Moeller - Maersk A/S
Arla Foods Amba
Atlas Copco Ab
Avinor As
Bank 1 Oslo Akershus As
Bank Norwegian As
Beerenberg Holdco Ii As
Billerudkorsnas Ab
Bw Offshore
Carlsberg Breweries A/S
Castellum Ab
Cermaq Asa
Citycon Oyj
Color Group As
Com Hem Holding Ab
Corem Property Group Ab
Danfoss A/S
Danske Bank A/S
Deep Sea Supply Plc
Destia Group Oy
Dfds A/S
Dlg Finance As
Dna Ltd
Dnb Bank Asa
Dof Asa
Dof Subsea As
Dolphin Group As
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBStable
BBB- Stable
BBB-
Stable
BBB
Stable
BBB+
BBB
B
BBBBB+
Stable
Stable
Stable
Pos
Stable
BBBBB
Stable
Stable
BB-
Stable
B+
BB-
Stable
B+
BBBBBBBBBBB-
Neg
Stable
Stable
Stable
Stable
B+
B+
Neg
Neg
BBB
Neg
BBB+
Neg
Baa1
Stable
A
AA-
Stable
Stable
A2
A1
Stable
Stable
A
Stable
Baa2
Neg
BBB
Stable
Baa1
Stable
A2
Stable
A
Stable
BBB
Stable
BB-
Pos
BBB
A
Stable
Stable
B+
A+
Neg
Aa3
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
OVERWEIGHT
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
J. Magnussen / M. Rosendal
B. Børsting/J. Magnussen
MARKETWEIGHT
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
UNDERWEIGHT
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
MARKETWEIGHT
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Ø. Mossige
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
Ø. Mossige
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
MARKETWEIGHT
L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad
K. Bakken
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
OVERWEIGHT
N. Ripa / B. Børsting
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / B. Børsting
I. Båtvik / Ø. Mossige
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
N. Ripa / B. Børsting
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
I. Båtvik/Ø. Mossige
I. Båtvik/Ø. Mossige
I. Båtvik
UNDERWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
29
Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Analyst(s)
Company
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
Dong Energy A/S
BBB+ Stable
Baa
BBB+ Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Dsv A/S
BBB
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Eg Holding
B
Stable
J. Magnussen / N. Ripa
Eidesvik Offshore Asa
B
Neg
I. Båtvik / Ø. Mossige
Eika Boligkreditt As
AStable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Eika Forsikring As
BBB+ Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Eika Gruppen As
BBB
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Eksportfinans Asa
BBBPos
Ba3
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Electrolux Ab
BBB+ Stable
Wr
WD
G. Bergin / B. Børsting
Elenia Oy
BBB
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Elisa Oyj
BBB+ Stable
Baa2
Stable
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
Farstad Shipping Asa
B
Stable
BI. Båtvik / Ø. Mossige
Fastpartner Ab
BB
Stable
BBL. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
Fingrid Oyj
A+
Pos
A1
Stable
A+
Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Finnair Oyj
BB
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Fortum Oyj
BBB+ Stable
Baa1
Stable BBB+ Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Fortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab
BBB+ Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Fred Olsen Energy Asa
B+
Neg
B
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
G4S Plc
BBBStable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Getinge Ab
BB
Stable
L. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
Golar Lng Partners Lp
BB
Stable
BBB.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd
BS. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
Havila Shipping Asa
CCC+
Neg
I. Båtvik / Ø. Mossige
Heimstaden Ab
BB
Stable
BBL. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
Hemso Fastighets Ab
AStable
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
Hexagon Ab
BBBStable
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
Hkscan Oyj
BB
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Hoegh Lng Holdings Ltd
BBStable
B+
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Hoist Kredit Ab
BBStable
B+
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
Husqvarna Ab
BBBPos
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
Ica Gruppen Ab
BBB
Stable
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
Ikano Bank Ab
BBB
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Investor Ab
AAStable
Aa3
Stable
G. Bergin / B. Børsting
Recomm.
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
30
Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Iss A/S
J Lauritzen A/S
Jefast Holding Ab
Jernhusen Ab
Jyske Bank A/S
Kemira Oyj
Kesko Oyj
Klaveness Ship Holding As
Klovern Ab
Lantmannen Ek For
Loomis Ab
Luossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab
Meda Ab
Metsa Board Oyj
Metso Oyj
Ncc Ab
Neste Oyj
Nibe Industrier Ab
Nokia Oyj
Nokian Renkaat Oyj
Nordax Bank Ab
Nordea Bank Ab
North Atlantic Drilling Ltd
Norwegian Air Shuttle Asa
Nykredit Bank A/S
Nynas Group
Ocean Rig Udw Inc
Ocean Yield Asa
Odfjell Se
Olympic Ship As
Orava Residential Reit Plc
Outokumpu Oyj
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBBPos
B
Stable
BB
Stable
B
AStable
AStable Baa1U Stable
BBBStable
Wr
BBB
Neg
BBStable
B+
BB+
Stable
BB
BBBStable
BBB
Stable
BBB
Stable
BBStable
BB+
Pos
Ba2
Stable
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
BBBStable
BBBStable
BBBStable
BB+
Pos
Ba2
Stable
BB
Pos
BBB+ Stable
BBBStable
AANeg
Aa3
Stable
AAStable
BNeg
CCC+
B+
Neg
B
A
Neg
Baa3U Stable
A
Stable
B+
Stable
B+
CCC
Ca
Neg
BB
BBB+
Stable
B
B+
Stable
B
B+
Stable
B+
BNeg
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
OVERWEIGHT
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
OVERWEIGHT
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
L. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
L. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
M. Rosendal / E. Hjalmarsson
OVERWEIGHT
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
MARKETWEIGHT
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHT
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHT
J. Magnussen / M. Rosendal
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
UNDERWEIGHT
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
L. Holm / K. Jensen
OVERWEIGHT
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
Ø. Mossige
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
I. Båtvik/Ø. Mossige
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
M. Rosendal / E. Hjalmarsson
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
31
Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Analyst(s)
Company
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
Pacific Drilling Sa
BNeg
Caa2
Neg
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
Petroleum Geo-Services Asa
CCC+
Neg
B1
I. Båtvik
Pohjola Bank Oyj
AANeg
Aa3
Stable
WD
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Postnord Ab
BBB+ Stable
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
Prosafe Se
B+
Neg
B
S. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
Ramirent Oyj
BB+
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Rem Offshore Asa
CCC+ Stable
I. Båtvik / Ø. Mossige
Saab Ab
BBB+ Stable
Wr
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
Sandnes Sparebank
BBB+ Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Sandvik Ab
BBB
Neg
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Sas Ab
BStable
Wr
Stable
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Sbab Bank Ab
A
Neg
A2
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Scania Ab
BBB+
Neg
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
Seadrill Ltd
B+
Neg
BS. Stormyr / B.K. Røed
Securitas Ab
BBB
Stable
Wr
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
Ship Finance International Ltd
BB
Stable
BBWr
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
Siem Offshore Inc
BNeg
I. Båtvik / Ø. Mossige
Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab
A+
Stable
Aa3
Stable
A+
Pos
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Skanska Ab
BBB+ Stable
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
Skf Ab
BBB
Neg
Baa2
Stable
M. Rosendal / E. Hjalmarsson
Sognekraft As
BBB
Stable
BBB
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Solstad Offshore Asa
BBStable
B+
I. Båtvik / Ø. Mossige
Spar Nord Bank A/S
BBB+ Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Sparebank 1 Boligkreditt As
AStable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Sparebank 1 Nord Norge
A1
Stable
A
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Sparebank 1 Smn
A1
Stable
AStable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Sparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa
A1
Stable
AStable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Sparekassen Kronjylland
BBB
Stable
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Sponda Oyj
BBBStable
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
Ssab Ab
B+
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
St1 Nordic Oy
BB
Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Statkraft Sf
ANeg
Aaa
Stable
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
Recomm.
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
32
Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Statnett Sf
Statoil Asa
Stena Ab
Stockmann Oyj Abp
Stolt-Nielsen Ltd
Stora Enso Oyj
Storebrand Bank Asa
Storebrand Livsforsikring As
Sunnfjord Energi As
Suomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab
Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca
Svenska Handelsbanken Ab
Swedavia Ab
Swedbank Ab
Swedish Match Ab
Sydbank A/S
Tallink Grupp As
Tdc A/S
Technopolis Oyj
Teekay Lng Partners Lp
Teekay Offshore Partners Lp
Tele2 Ab
Telefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson
Telenor Asa
Teliasonera Ab
Teollisuuden Voima Oyj
Tine Sa
Topdanmark A/S
Tryg A/S
Upm-Kymmene Oyj
Vasakronan Ab
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
A+
Stable
Wr
Stable
A+
Stable
Aa2
BB
Stable
B2
B+
Stable
BB+
Stable
BB
BB
Stable
Ba2
Stable
WD
BBB+ Stable
BBB+
Neg
Nr
Stable
BBB+ Stable
Baa1
Stable
BBBStable
BBBBBB
Neg
BBB
Stable
AStable
Baa1
Stable
AANeg
Aa2
Stable
AAStable
AStable
AANeg
Aa3
Stable
A+
Pos
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
Baa1
Stable
BB
Stable
BBBBBStable
Baa3
Stable
BBBStable
BB+
Stable
BB
BB
Stable
BBBBStable
B+
BBB
Stable
BBB+ Stable
Baa1
Stable BBB+ Stable
A
Stable
A3
Stable
AStable
A3
AStable
BBBNeg
Wr
BBB
Stable
BBB+ Stable
BBB+ Stable
BB+
A-
Stable
Stable
Ba1
Pos
WD
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
N. Ripa / B. Børsting
N. Ripa / G. Bergin
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
Louis Landeman
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
L. Holm / K. Jensen
G. Bergin / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
B. Børsting / M. Rosendal
L. Holm / K. Jensen
N. Ripa / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
L. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
Ø. Mossige
Ø. Mossige
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
O. Heldal / L. Landeman
L. Holm / K. Jensen
L. Holm / K. Jensen
M. Rosendal / L. Landeman
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
UNDERWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
33
Our coverage and shadow ratings 6 of 6
Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings
Company
Vattenfall Ab
Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Victoria Park Ab
Volvo Ab
Wihlborgs Fastigheter Ab
Wilh Wilhelmsen Asa
Yit Oyj
Danske Bank
S&P
Moody's
Fitch
Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating Outlook
BBB
A3
BBB+ Stable
BBB
BBPos
B+
BBB
Stable
Baa2
Stable
BBB
Stable
BB+
Stable
BB
BB+
Stable
B
Stable
Analyst(s)
Recomm.
J. Magnussen / L. Landeman
N. Ripa / J. Magnussen
L. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
M. Rosendal / B. Børsting
L. Landeman / E. Hjalmarsson
B.K. Røed / J. Meyer
E. Hjalmarsson / L. Landeman
MARKETWEIGHT
OVERWEIGHT
MARKETWEIGHT
Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets
34
Fixed Income Credit Research team
Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst
Head of Credit Research
+45 45 12 85 05
hova@danskebank.com
Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst
Industrials
+45 45 12 85 19
brbr@danskebank.com
Ola Heldal, Senior Analyst
TMT
+47 85 40 84 33
olh@danskebank.com
Louis Landeman, Senior Analyst
TMT, Industrials
+46 8 568 80524
llan@danskebank.com
Lars Holm, Senior Analyst
Financials
+45 45 12 80 41
laho@danskebank.com
Sondre Dale Stormyr, Senior Analyst
Offshore Rigs
+47 85 40 70 70
sost@danskebank.com
Mads Rosendal, Analyst
Industrials, Pulp & Paper
+45 45 14 88 79
madro@danskebank.com
Gabriel Bergin, Analyst
Strategy, Industrials
+46 8 568 80602
gabe@danskebank.com
Henrik René Andresen, Senior Analyst
Credit Portfolios
+45 45 13 33 27
hena@danskebank.com
Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst
Utilities, Energy
+45 45 12 85 03
jakja@danskebank.com
Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst
High Yield, Industrials
+45 45 12 80 47
niri@danskebank.com
Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst
Oil Services
+47 85 40 54 91
omss@danskebank.com
Knut-Ivar Bakken, Senior Analyst
Fish Farming
+47 85 40 70 74
knb@danskebank.com
Bjørn Kristian Røed, Senior Analyst
Shipping
+47 85 40 70 72
bred@danskebank.com
Emil Hjalmarsson, Analyst
Real Estate, Construction
+46 8 568 80634
emih@danskebank.com
Katrine Jensen, Analyst
Financials
+45 45 12 80 56
katri@danskebank.com
Iver Christian Båtvik, Analyst
Shipping
+47 95 97 74 45
ibt@danskebank.com
Haseeb Syed
High Yield, Norway
+47 85 40 54 19
hsy@danskebank.com
35
Disclosures
This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ('Danske Bank'). The authors of this research report
are Louis Landeman, Senior Analyst, and Katrine Jensen, Analyst.
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expressed in the research report.
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36
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