Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt A Survey of Civil Society Perception on the Transition, the Constitution and the New Democratic Institutions Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 The Foundation for the Future is an independent, multi-lateral and not for profit organization, created in 2005 and fully committed to promoting democracy, Human Rights, the Rule of Law and reforms through supporting Civil Society Organizations’ (CSOs) relevant initiatives in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at large. The Foundation has its regional headquarters in Amman, JORDAN. August 2011 Page 2 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 4 Rationale and background for the study ..................................................................................... 4 Survey Method and Description of Sample ................................................................................. 5 Summary of key findings ............................................................................................................. 6 I. Civil Society and the New Egypt: a Cautious Optimism.............................................................. 8 II. Civil Society and the Freedom to Act: ‘Areas for Improvement’ ............................................ 10 III. Civil Society and the New Political Order: A Progressive Agenda .......................................... 12 Constitution before elections .................................................................................................... 12 A strong support towards secularism........................................................................................ 13 Priorities for the new constitution ............................................................................................ 15 IV. The Next Egyptian President as Portrayed by Civil Society.................................................... 17 Annexure ....................................................................................................................................... 19 Questionnaire ............................................................................................................................ 19 Page 3 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Executive Summary The health and viability of democratic systems is often linked, inter alia, to the robustness of local or national civil society. Where government is genuinely representative, civil society is given the space to flourish and transform with the demands of the people, thus serving as an intermediary in the channeling of grievances, demands and expressions of local needs. The Foundation for the Future understands the unique role of civil society, and since 2007 has been working to empower civil society organizations (CSOs) across the Broader Middle East and North Africa (BMENA) region by providing them with financial assistance (through grants) as well as expertise through capacity- and knowledge-building initiatives. Rationale and background for the study 2011 is a year like no other, with profound movements for freedom and reform spreading throughout the Arab world. In these moments, the Foundation has closely followed the unfolding of events of historical magnitude; several of its local partners have participated on the front lines of the Arab Spring demonstrations across the region, particularly in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen. These events have been marked by powerful images, such as the announcement of Hosni Mubarak’s resignation on February 11. The situation in Egypt is particularly challenging. The energy and passion of the Egyptian people that culminated in the Revolution has not yet waned. What is unclear is whether or not that power will be able to be effectively directed to result in a viable democratic state, representative of the various parties and aspirations, currently vying for attention on the national stage. Understanding that civil society organizations are often closely connected to the populations they target, and on the front lines of transitions, the Foundation wanted to give the floor to civil society organizations and activists, to hear their take on recent events and controversies surrounding the formation of the new government. Six months into the transition, it was time to pause and reflect with them on the future of Egypt. The Foundation for the Future envisions a BMENA region where a vibrant civil society, reforminclined governments, accountable institutions and reliable private sector are engaged towards the full observance of citizens’ rights; the enjoyment of freedom and Human Rights as endorsed by respective international conventions; and the prevalence of values of democratic inclusiveness and good governance. Operating in a region undergoing powerful political transformations, the Foundation is intended to accompany worthy initiatives and processes aiming at democratic reforms and transitions, and is therefore particularly committed to observe and understand the issues at stake and the possible roles for civil society in a redefined context. This was an important motive of conducting the Civil Society Perception Survey in Egypt. Page 4 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Survey Method and Description of Sample In nearly five years of working with civil society in Egypt, the Foundation has got to know over 300 CSOs – NGOs, local community groups, research centres, advocacy and human rights groups, etc. In July, 369 organizations have been contacted and invited to take part in an online perception survey whose structure had been designed by the Foundation. The Foundation was entirely responsible for the management, design and control of this survey. Questions ranged from their operations since the revolution, their confidence in political transition, and their hopes for the future of their country. The survey specifically focused on issues of internal governance that will shape the future nature of the Egyptian State; it deliberately chose not to discuss matters of diplomacy and geopolitics which have been raised in recent months. The questionnaire consisted of 12 questions with answering options aimed at gathering opinions or perceptions (agreement/disagreement, support/opposition, order of priorities, etc)1. The questionnaire was administered through an online survey software, where respondents had to provide answers to each question (no “blank” answers). Respondents had the choice of answering either in Arabic or in English2; the online platform was accessible between25 July and 7 August. A global statistical check was performed regarding the consistency of responses. The respondent sample can be described as follows: 71 valid submissions were considered in the sample3; select respondents were contacted to gain further insight into certain answers 61.1 % of the respondents are based in Cairo or greater Cairo, while 38.9 % are based or operating mainly outside of the capital city On average, each respondent reported working in 3 areas of expertise, including human rights/justice (62.5%), youth empowerment (55.6%), democracy/governance (54.2%), gender/women’s rights (51.4%), community empowerment/social development (50%), or other (19.4%). What is interesting to notice is that, even though the option “no opinion” or “I don’t know” where given for almost all questions, very few respondents opted for those, and directly expressed their opinion. This gives a stronger value to the results and findings for each question. 1 See questionnaire in Annexure. The basis for translation was the questionnaire in English. The translation into Arabic was done by staff fluent in both languages, and later reviewed and tested by native Arabic speakers not involved in the project, to recommend refinements and corrections to the Arabic version of the questionnaire. 3 80 responses (i.e. 22% response ratio) have been collected online by the deadline of 7 August. However, when several responses were registered with the same respondent identity (same name, same computer used), the response was not considered as valid. 2 Page 5 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 The methodology of this survey was by no means comprehensive or expressive of Egyptians, or even Egyptian civil society, as a whole. As the first such project directly undertaken by the Foundation, it was instead a random sample survey designed to gain further insight into civil society perceptions. Methodology was created accordingly. As you read through the findings of the survey, let it provide you not with an authoritative point of view of Egyptian society as a whole, but instead with valuable insight into Egyptian civil society as it works for the betterment of its country during this historical period of transition. Summary of key findings Civil Society in Egypt is cautiously positive about the transition that has been happening in Egypt since the January Revolution. After taking part in the demonstrations that eventually led to the first free vote taking place in Egypt for decades, positivity seems to be the only correct response. However, the signs of uncertainty are undeniable: demonstrators are still occupying Tahrir Square on a regular basis, the country is still under military law, and a reliable date for elections has yet to be agreed on. These signs have not gone unnoticed by CSOs, who seem to have not yet fully claimed victory. They are slow to state an end to government oppression, and even slower still to say that a viable democratic state has been created. Beyond the very public signs of uncertainty, many members of civil society have their own personal reasons to display caution. For some, the situation has not improved markedly. They are still experiencing censorship, and fear public defamation and harassment at the hands of authorities. Nearly 10% of the respondents have declared to have been unlawfully arrested or imprisoned since January. While the situation has improved, it is still not the point it must get to in order for civil society to take its rightful place in an open, stable democracy. Most clear among civil society’s concerns is the need for a new government to be secular in nature. Survey results showed overwhelming support in favor of steps to be taken to mitigate the influence of political parties based on faith and religion on the drafting of the constitution and the formation of the new government. Civil society is in favor of a secular state in which religion has no direct influence on law and governance. The majority believes that every religion should have equal rights, and citizens from all religious backgrounds should have the right to run for president. However, CSOs seem more willing to claim the need for religious freedom than they are to make a strong statement against the involvement of Islam in governance. Given the civil society stance on democracy and religion, and the remarkable turnout of Egyptians for the national referendum vote, one can assume that civil society as a whole is more liberal and progressive-leaning than the Egyptian population at large. 77% of voters in the referendum chose in favor of holding parliamentary elections before the drafting of the new constitution, while CSOs are overwhelmingly against this timeline. They also responded consistently with a liberal leaning, showing openness the idea of a female president and political parties of mixed-religions. Page 6 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Most heartening perhaps of the findings is that civil society still feels more capable than ever to enact change for the betterment of Egypt. This is the most important point. The details of transition may still be uncertain in Egypt, but as long as the people of Egypt continue to push for their rights and freedoms, the process of democratic transition will continue. As this happens, civil society will continue to step in its important role towards the establishment of a new democratic state of Egypt. Page 7 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 I. Civil Society and the New Egypt: a Cautious Optimism When asked very general questions about their perceptions of the new Egypt, CSOs seemed basically optimistic, yet cautiously so: their answers seemed to remain more or less split between “somewhat agreeing” and “somewhat disagreeing”. However, considering the frequently changing state of Egyptian politics and society currently, such cautiousness is prudent and to be expected. Indeed, while 73.6% of respondents either strongly or somewhat agree to say that they feel optimistic about the future of Egypt, 65.3% consider that progress has been made for Egypt to be a true democracy. This compares with the general perception by public opinion: according to various surveys, between 6 and 9 in 10 Egyptians are optimistic about the future4. The rather cautious optimism expressed by civil society probably takes roots in several setbacks of the recent months. Indeed, when follow-up questions were asked to select respondents concerning why or why not progress had been made for Egypt to become a true democracy, one respondent cited the continued trying of civilians in military courts (up to 10,000 since the end of January according to local and international media sources), and the fact that elections have yet to be held for the return of legitimately elected authority to civilian hands as to why he 4 David D. Kirpatrick and Mona El-Naggar, « Poll Finds Egyptians Full of Hope About the Future », The New York Times, 25 April 2011: “The poll found Egyptians remarkably bullish on their revolution and, in its aftermath, their future. Nearly two-thirds said they were satisfied with their country’ direction, and 6 in 10 were optimistic about the future. Although open political elections would be a novelty in Egyptian history, most had some degree of faith that they had won democracy. Forty-one percent said a free and fair choice in the next election was very likely *…+”; IRI Egypt Index opinion survey, 5 June 2011, p.2: “when asked about the general direction of their country, 89% said it was heading in the right direction”; El Hayat Television Network in collaboration with TNS Global Market Research, “Egypt 100 days without Mubarak – how do Egyptians perceive the government, the revolution and the future?”, 26 May 2011: the survey found 76% of respondents to be optimistic about the future of Egypt, 85% believing that the situation of democracy is “positive” since the revolution and 73% thinking that Egypt is moving in the right direction. Similarly, a study conducted in March 2011 by Gallup’s Abu Dhabi Center (Egypt: The Arithmetic of Revolution) found that 88% of Egyptians agreed with the statement “democracy will help progress” (the highest percentage among Muslim societies). Page 8 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 strongly disagreed with the statement. These setbacks seem to overshadow the initial democratic gains achieved in the weeks following the fall of the Mubarak regime, such as the dissolution of institutions such as the Assembly, the National Democratic Party and the local councils, who have proved not to be representative. The only statement to which CSOs reacted in an almost exclusively positive way in fact was concerning their own ability to be an actor of change in Egypt: an overwhelming 95.9% of respondents declare to “feel much more powerful to be a catalyst of change” - a heartening response given the dire need for a strong civil society at this point in Egypt’s history. This is however to be balanced out against a persistent mistrust between civil society and governing bodies: 41.7% of respondents still express a certain fear of government oppression 52.8% of respondents still consider that authorities are not yet open to interact with civil society on issues affecting the transition to democracy It is an unfortunate paradox that at the precise moment when civil society feels most capable of effecting positive change, it feels as though authorities are continuing to block or be unreceptive to their efforts. It must also be noted that perhaps the most balanced split between positive and negative responses occurred with the statement concerning fear of government oppression. This statement perhaps more than any of the others speaks to the previous regime’s legacy in the government today, and the remnants of the iron-fist style of control. Until civil society feels free to operate without fear of its government, democracy will be unable to truly flourish. Interestingly enough, there seemed to be a slightly liberal leaning for CSOs that were based in Cairo or Greater Cairo, versus those outside the capital. Those in the area of Cairo were 9% less optimistic about the future of Egypt, and in 10% more instances they felt that authorities were open to consult with CSOs about issues in transition. One CSO representative explained that “besides the National Council for Human Rights – which is a semi- governmental institution- civil society organizations did not receive any invitation to participate in contributing to the formation of Egypt’s future on any level. Also, not one NGO was invited to the National Dialogue that took place.” Page 9 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 II. Civil Society and the Freedom to Act: ‘Areas for Improvement’ A true democratic transition in Egypt will require that civil society can take a more active role than what has been previously possible. However, such a partnership between government and CSOs simply cannot exist if leadership still feels threatened by democratic growth. Thus, in order to gauge the progress of transition, it is helpful to better understand how civil society perceives its own freedom to act, and the treatment they have received from the government since the revolution. The general picture is one that clearly depicts major improvements in the possibility for CSOs to act and think freely: on all 4 major types of restrictions that can affect civil society (censorship, unlawful arrest and imprisonment, defamation and harassment, obstacles in daily operations), significant improvements are perceived by respondents. However, the persistence of certain restrictions is preoccupying and shed lights on numerous possible areas for improvement. This graph shows the percentages of CSOs who answered “very regularly” or “occasionally” when asked how often their organization was affected by the mentioned governmental constraints and restrictions, both before and after the Egyptian Revolution of February 2011. The main perceived “gain” since February seems to be a significant improvement in the possibility for civil society groups to freely express their views and opinions: while 90.3% of respondents declare to have been affected by censorship and obstructions to freedom of speech before February, this proportion is down to 34.7% in the new Egypt. Even though 34.7% is not a negligible figure, the drop is significant, and illustrates an important development towards the democratization of the regime. Page 10 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 A second hurdle facing CSOs is the refusal of access to funding or refusal to register new projects or conduct activities, still imposed by authorities in certain cases, and still permitted by the current regulations and laws ruling the third sector, and in particular the law 84/20025. Almost 1 in 3 respondents (29.1%) declared to still be facing such difficulties in their daily operations. Another 1 in 5 respondents (20.8%) still declare to be affected by public defamation and harassment by authorities. When asked about the nature of censorship and harassment by the government before and after the revolution, two different respondents said that it was usually due to their acceptance of aid and funding from foreign institutions. 39 CSOs and political groups have recently joined forced to denounce what they call “a fierce and systematized crackdown by the country’s military junta” and submitted official complaints to several special UN rapporteurs6 regarding frequent incidents of defamation against groups receiving funds from foreign countries, which CSOs consider as an attempt to discredit civil society as a whole. The fact that almost 1 in 10 respondents (9.7%) declare to face, even today, unlawful arrest and imprisonment is a preoccupying finding. 5 In this regard, refer to the various campaigns coordinated by the Arab Program for Human Rights Activists (APHRA) to reform civil society laws, www.aphra.org. 6 Amro Hassan and Jack Shenker, « Egyptian Human Rights groups accuse junta of smear campaign », The Guardian, 24 August 2011. See also Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, www.cihrs.org. Page 11 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 III. Civil Society and the New Political Order: A Progressive Agenda Constitution before elections Six months after the ouster of President Mubarak from power, elections have yet to be held, and a constitution has yet to be written. While a popular referendum on March 19 gave consensus to elections being held before the drafting of the new constitution7, a number of new proposals have gained public support amongst secularists and liberals since then. The majority of alternative timelines proposed seem to be geared towards mitigating the expected influence of non-secular, extremist or non-progressive parties, whether by drafting a constitution before elections, or better clarifying the secular nature of the state in a government issued document. The CSOs who responded to this survey seemed split between various plans of action, but were generally unified about the need to assert the secular and democratic nature of the new Egypt. In fact, 79% disagreed with the idea of Islamic parties gaining a parliamentary majority and impacting the constitution-drafting process, and 68.4% were opposed to elections being held as soon as possible, as this could be too early to ensure that the political system (and political parties in particular) effectively represents the full spectrum of opinions. More specifically, 71.1% of respondents agreed that it would be unfair and unwise to hold elections 7 The referendum was passed with 77.2% approval (despite calls for boycott) amidst a 41% voter turnout. Page 12 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 before more political parties have an opportunity to become established- an idea originally endorsed by Interim Prime Minister Essam Sharaf before he came under fire for his comments. Respondents are generally inclined to support a timeline that contradicts the political schedule already announced, which would see elections being held before a Constitution is drafted. In this regard, the 73.7% of respondents who would prefer to see a constitutional council established before elections are held seem to agree with the position of the so-called “MillionStrong” protesters that endorsed the “Constitution First Campaign”. This campaign is led by a coalition of liberal and leftist organizations to reverse the timeline proposed in the national referendum and elect a constitutional council to write the constitution before elections are held. More interestingly, there is an almost unanimous (92.1%) endorsement for the writing of a bill of rights before elections – a bill of rights that would frame the overall spirit of a new constitution. This plan has been endorsed by presidential hopeful Mohamed El Baradei, and corroborated by recent opinion polls and surveys8. A strong support towards secularism The secular nature of the State seems to be a strong aspiration for civil society representatives and even a high priority for 66.1% of respondents (see below, Priorities for the new constitution): 79% of respondents agreed that the new constitution should include provisions to protect the secular nature of civil institutions, which is reminiscent of calls by various groups to task the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces with this responsibility. This is also similar to the calls by the National Consensus Conference led by the previous Deputy Prime Minister Yehia El Gamal to include an article in the constitution ensuring the secular nature of the state. This particular issue – the relationship between Islam and democracy – has been a point of contention or even controversy in Egypt over the past few months, and was thus particularly interested to include in the survey. The CSOs who took part in this survey seem to have strong secular views on the matter, expressing a concern for pluralism and progressive statements. Indeed, 62.9% of respondents disagree with the idea that “any government must gain legitimacy from Islam”, which is consistent with the previous finding regarding the secular nature of the State, and the opinion that, for 77.4% of respondents, clerics or religious leaders should not play a formal role in politics and law-making9. A significant 62.9% of respondents strongly agreed 8 Chelsea J. Carter, « Survey Finds Egyptians favor advisory role for religious leaders », CNN, 6 June 2011 : quoting a recent study published by Gallup Abu Dhabi Center, the journalist mentions that a large majority of Egyptians would strongly favor the inscription of freedom of speech, freedom of religion and freedom of assembly in the new constitution. 99 This could be compared with recent public opinion polls such as « Egypt from Tahrir to Transition: Egyptians on their assets and challenges and what leaders should do about it », Abu Dhabi Gallup Center, June 2011, p.6: « *…+ religion remains important to most Egyptians (96%), and 92% say they have confidence in religious institutions. It is not surprising, then, that many Egyptians reject the idea that government should carry on its business without considering religious doctrine ». However, « the majority of residents in the Arab world’s most populous nation desire a democracy informed by religious values, not Page 13 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 that there should be an article written in the constitution assuring the separation between religion and government, in discordance with the article 2 of the existing constitution which mandates that the principles of Islamic law are the prime source of legislation. This also places civil society groups in discordance with the general public opinion: indeed, according to recently published opinion polls, “nearly two thirds of Egyptians said civil law should strictly follow the Koran”10. What is interesting to notice is the civil society representatives who responded to the survey have a progressive and consistent view on the issue of religion and politics: it is not a matter of being anti- or pro-Islam, it is precisely a matter of secularism, taking into consideration all religious faiths that compose Egypt today. Respondents assert in a large consensus (91.9%) that “an Egyptian citizen of any religion should be allowed to run for President” and strongly agree that political parties themselves should not have a religious ‘label’ (80.6% of respondents consider that political parties should not have a specific religious focus and 90.3% consider that political parties should not exclusively represent one specific religious segment), which somehow contrasts with the general public opinion11. When asked specifically why he felt this aversion, one respondent replied simply that “pluralism is a core principle of democracy. If a theocracy ». Indeed, according to the survey, 69% would favor an advisory role for religious leaders when it comes to drafting legislation and only 14% said religious leaders should have full authority. 10 David D. Kirpatrick and Mona El-Naggar, « Poll Finds Egyptians Full of Hope About the Future », The New York Times, 25 April 2011 11 David D. Kirpatrick and Mona El-Naggar, « Poll Finds Egyptians Full of Hope About the Future », The New York Times, 25 April 2011: “50% said it was very important for religiously based parties to be able to participate in government”; Page 14 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 political parties discriminate based on religion, this is contradictory to the idea of a democratic Egypt”. He also felt that religious groups used religion to gain votes, but beyond that had very few effective clear plans as to how they would implement government programs. Also, a slight liberal leaning of CSOs based in Cairo was again apparent as 100% of them said that a citizen of any religion could run for president, and 10% less of them said that the government should gain its legitimacy from Islam. Priorities for the new constitution Respondents were also asked to rate various issues in terms of their level of priority to the new constitution, and the following findings were made: Top priorities are, equally, the democratic nature of the state and the independence of the judiciary for 91.9% of the respondents12, which compares with the concerns expressed by Egyptian public opinion in recent months Not surprisingly, press and media freedoms also rank high in terms of priority (85.5%), as they are usually strong safeguards of pluralism, transparency and freedom of expression – all core democratic principles; similarly, respondent are giving a high priority to an adequate balance of power between the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government (72.6%) The control over armed forces seems to be a point of debate. The statement “the control of the military should be divided between the executive and legislative branches of government” aimed at introducing the idea of a parliamentary oversight of the defense sector, and gauge civil society perception on the matter. Interestingly, only 48.4% of the respondents do consider this as a high priority for the new constitution. This ambivalence probably reflects the dilemma facing the Egyptian people today: on the one hand, the army still benefit from the respect of most Egyptians, for the adjuvant role that it played in the Revolution and its prominent role in Egyptian politics over the past century. As one observer put it, “the January 25 revolution would not have reached the threshold of democratic transition where it now stands were it not for the role the army played in resolving the conflict between the old regime and revolutionary forces”13. On the other hand, progress has been slow, and disappointing 12 David D. Kirpatrick and Mona El-Naggar, « Poll Finds Egyptians Full of Hope About the Future », The New York Times, 25 April 2011: “(…) asked about their most important concerns for the future, the broadest majority – 82% - said improving economic conditions was very important; 79% said a fair judicial system was; 63% said law and order; the same portion that said freedom of speech; and only 55% said honest elections”. 13 Dr. Gamal Abd El Gawad, Director of Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, « The Army in the Post-Revolution Constitution », presentation given on 27 July 2011 during the conference « Ways to Strengthen the Democratic Transformation in Egypt », co-organized by the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, the United Nations Democracy Fund (UNDEF) and the Foundation for International Relations and Foreign Dialogue (FRIDE). Page 15 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 to many. Finding the adequate and stable constitutional formula for the army is a key challenge of the coming years, for democracy to grow and sustain in Egypt. The question of including formally in the constitution a quota for the representation and participation of women in political life seems to create a debate even within civil society. It was the lowest of priorities for respondents to the survey (only 30.6% consider quotas for female representation to be a high priority, this proportion growing up to a significant but not overwhelming 62% among organizations who described themselves as specialized on gender and women’s rights), and it was even not a priority at all for 29% of respondents. This reflects within civil society similar lines of divide that have appeared in Egypt in recent months, as the question of “women quotas in politics” was growing into a controversy14. Indeed, many voices have started to criticize the idea of a quota, not only because it is seen as a policy introduced by the former regime, but also because – as a respondent put it – “quotas are a form a positive discrimination that can cause a parliamentary candidate to be considered based on gender, not on their capability to carry out the job, and this is simply undemocratic”. 14 In this regard, refer to the campaign coordinated by the Egyptian Coalition for Civil Education and Women’s participation (such as « The cancellation of Women's Quota without alternative legal methods that guarantee women's political participation is pushing women back to the zero point » in May 2011) and the Egyptian Center for Women’s Rights, www.ecwr.org. Page 16 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 IV. The Next Egyptian President as Portrayed by Civil Society The CSOs were also asked to respond to statements about the next Egyptian president, and the criteria that they believe he/she must fill. The largest majority (77.4%) believed that the next president must have two Egyptian parents, and believed (67.7%) that he/she must have no record of collaboration with the Mubarak regime. Even though respondents were not in favor of female quota for political representation, they also strongly disagree (54.8%) with the idea that the new Egyptian President would have to be a man. A slight tendency for organizations to be more liberal if based in Cairo or Greater Cairo was apparent as organizations based in the capital were 10% more likely to disagree that the president must be Muslim or male. The issue of religion is, there again, a point of contention: 46.5% agree that the next President should be Muslim, and an almost equal proportion (46.8%) would disagree with the same statement. When asked to rank a list of pertinent issues in terms of what level of priority they should take with the new president, respondents seemed to favor issues that would help Egypt regain stability and develop into a stronger democratic state than those that would draw national attention outside the country, or focus on the past. Job creation and economic recovery were ranked the highest priority more often than any other issue and by far (priority number 1 or 2 for 74.2% of the respondents). This is the confirmation that the new regime is particularly expected to create opportunities and social justice. Security sector reforms (priority 1 or 2 for 51.6% of respondents) and the ratification as well as implementation of key international human rights conventions (priority 1 or 2 for 35.5% of respondents) are respectively the second and third priority by order of importance. Page 17 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 On the other end of the spectrum, finding a resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict was the lowest priority, indicating once more that the political revolution in Egypt are, first and foremost, a matter of internal priorities according to respondents. It was interesting to notice that transitional justice and the prosecution of prominent leaders of the previous regimes is perceived as a high priority for only 1 in 6 respondents (16.1%) and as a low priority by a large majority of them (61.3%), precisely at the time when former President Mubarak was called to court for a first hearing on 3 August. Page 18 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Annexure Questionnaire Egyptian Civil Society Perception Survey - Questionnaire 1. Organization details Respondent name Organization Name Date of establishment of the organization 2. Main location (one choice) o Cairo/Greater Cairo o Central Egypt o Upper Egypt o Delta/Lower Egypt o Other 3. Main expertise (multiple choice) o Human rights/Justice o Democracy/Governance o Gender/Women’s rights o Youth empowerment o Community empowerment/Social development o Other 4. How often has your organization been affected by any of the following constraints or restrictions from authorities in the past (before the Egyptian Revolution of February 2011)? Very regularly Occasionally Never No opinion Censorship/lack of freedom of speech o o o o Unlawful arrest and imprisonment o o o o Page 19 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Public defamation and harassment by government forces o o o o Refusal to access funding/ no permission to register new project or conduct activities o o o o 5. How often has your organization been affected by any of the following constraints or restrictions from authorities since February 2011? Very regularly Occasionally Never No opinion Censorship/lack of freedom of speech o o o o Unlawful arrest and imprisonment o o o o Public defamation and harassment by government forces o o o o Refusal to access funding/ no permission to register new project or conduct activities o o o o 6. How do you feel about the following statements regarding the transition since the Egyptian Revolution of February 2011? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree No opinion I feel very optimistic for the future of Egypt o o o o o As a civil society representative, I feel much more powerful to be a catalyst of change in Egypt o o o o o I feel that authorities are open to listen to civil society and consult with them on key issues of the transition o o o o o My fear of government oppression has decreased since the Revolution o o o o o Major progress has been made for Egypt to become a true democracy o o o o o Page 20 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 7. How do you feel about the following statements regarding the new Constitution and the electoral process (according to your personal opinion)? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree No opinion Parliamentary elections should be held as soon as possible, before drafting a Constitution o o o o o A Constitutional Council must be set up to write a Constitution before national elections are held o o o o o It would be unfair and unwise to hold elections before political parties have more time to become established o o o o o There is not problem with Islamic parties gaining a majority in Parliament and having a great influence in the electoral and constitutiondrafting process, therefore elections should be held as soon as possible o o o o o Before drafting a Constitution, a Bill of Rights should be approved that would supersede the Constitution o o o o o The new Constitution should provide certain provisions to protect the secular nature of civil institutions o o o o o 8. How do you feel about the following statements regarding the criteria for the next President? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree No opinion The next President must have no record of collaboration with the previous regime o o o o o The next President must have no ties with the army o o o o o The next President must be Muslim o o o o o Page 21 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 The next President must be male o o o o o The next President must have two Egyptian parents o o o o o 9. How do you feel about the following statements regarding the role of Egyptian civil society in the democratization process? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree No opinion Leaders should be recruited to take on new political and governmental leadership roles o o o o o CSOs should form a large portion of a Constitutional Council to draft a new constitution before elections are held o o o o o Civil society must play a significant role in security sector oversight in the new regime o o o o o It should play a major role in educating the public about their rights and responsibilities as voters in a democracy o o o o o It should play a major role in raising awareness of the public on their basic human rights o o o o o It should play a major role in election monitoring in the upcoming elections o o o o o It should act as a watchdog to hold the new government accountable to the promises they have made to Egyptian citizens o o o o o Page 22 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 10. Rank the following statements according to their level of priority in the new constitution in your opinion High priority Medium priority Low priority Not a priority at all No opinion Quotas for female representation in government o o o o o Guarantees for the independence of the Judiciary o o o o o Media and Press freedoms o o o o o Control of the military clearly divided between the executive and the legislative branches o o o o o An even balance of power between the judicial, executive and legislative branches of government o o o o o The constitution clearly stating the democratic nature of the State o o o o o The constitution clearly stating that there is a separation between religion and the State o o o o o 11. How do you feel about the following statements regarding the link between religion and the State? Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree No opinion There must be a clear separation between religion and government in the new Constitution o o o o o Political parties should not exclusively represent one religious group o o o o o There is no issue with political parties having a specific religious focus o o o o o An Egyptian citizen of any religion should be constitutionally allowed to run for President o o o o o Page 23 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Clerics should not play a formal role in politics and legislation o o o o o Any government must gain its legitimacy from Islam by having a Shura council, a Muslim President and laws based on Sharia o o o o o 12. What should be the priorities of the new President and government? Rank the following statements from 1 (highest priority) to 5 (lowest priority) [one choice per statement] 1 (highest priority) 2 3 4 5 (lowest priority) Job creation, employment and economic recovery o o o o o A solution to the IsraeliPalestinian conflict o o o o o Ratification and implementation of key international human rights conventions o o o o o Security sector reform o o o o o Transitional justice and prosecution of prominent leaders of the previous regime o o o o o Page 24 of 25 Six Months Later: Civil Society Perceptions of Post-Revolutionary Egypt August 2011 Foundation for the Future 7 Al Najaf Street Um Uthaina Amman 11195 JORDAN Tel +962 6 55 44 906 Fex +962 6 55 44 907 www.foundationforfuture.org Page 25 of 25