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Myanmar after General Elections:
A Myanmar Perspective
Zeya Thu
Research Fellow
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Myanmar after General Election: A
Myanmar Perspective
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If there is only one major result from the general election, it is
‘not the election of generals’. It is a significant departure
from 2010 election that was quipped by some as General’s
Election because the government was led and dominated by
retired generals from the military government. Roughly 4 in 5
people of thirty million eligible voters go out to vote, and
Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD party secured a majority in the
upper and lower houses of parliament.
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It is not ‘election by generals’ either. New government would
be the first government not elected by the country’s military
establishment for more than half a century, most of that time
under military governments.
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trust in Myanmar reform process
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That sounds like current government loses? No. The election
lends more trust in Myanmar reform process in general as it is
regarded as a ‘free and fair election’.
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There were irregularities but international and local observers
agreed that the process was credible and the result reflects the
will of the people.
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United States endorsed that Myanmar election is a free and fair
election.
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“US president Obama...congratulated the president and the
entire government on having been able to hold a historic free
and fair general election,” said presidential spokesman and
Minister of Information Ye Htut.
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Change
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NLD election campaign is about ‘change’ as their slogan is ‘vote for
change’
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An all-encompassing change is that new government will have the
mandate of the public for the first time in half a century.
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That means this is the best time to change Myanmar
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to speed up the reforms that are already on-going
People are not just calling for the change, they are eager to change themselves.
Myanmar can build on the enthusiasm and energy of Myanmar voters to push
the country forward
They are ready to work hard and make sacrifices for their motherland.
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16,000 Problems
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However, there would be continuity in many areas. What will
continue?
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16,000 problems “ျျျျျျျျျျျ
ျျျျျျျျျျျျျျျျျ” that Myanmar has ~ More than
two dozens armed groups, poverty, backward economy,
mistrust among the society, to name a major few ~ will
continue
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Emergence of the parliament (Hluttaw) is a success story of
previous 5 years. As NLD will dominate Hluttaw, it can push
through any legislation it wants
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Therefore, next question is on the executive branch
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Who will be the president?
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the article 59(F) of the Constitution
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“I will be above the president”
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The best candidate might be one that NLD and the military agree
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So far, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has met the outgoing president,
commander-in-chief and former leader, former leader retired
Senior General Than Shwe, and the meetings are positive
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Endorsed as a "future leader" of the country
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These meetings raise hopes that she can still be the president.
However, it is still unlikely, as it will need an amendment of the
constitution that will need the military’s agreement.
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Who will be the president? (Cont:)
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A major implication is that if she becomes the president though the
current constitution bars her from doing so,
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she cannot be active in the party as the Constitution bars the
president from being active in party affairs
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Not being the president might be a blessing in disguise for Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi.
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A less-talked about but equally important question ~ how will the
cabinet be composed? ~ Myanmar needs a very capable cabinet,
non-partisan and meritocratic
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Killing two birds with one stone ~ NLD can invite talented people
outside the party who not only have education and drive but also
have some experience inside the civil service for governance. It
should be non-partisan in recruiting those for the ministerial posts.
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Honeymoon period
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In developed countries, there is honeymoon period of 100
days when new government comes in
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For Myanmar, how much time we have for honeymoon
period?
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Perhaps 200 days or 50 days? Or one year?
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Landslide victory means landslide expectation.
Expectation management is the key
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Priorities of Priorities
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Corruption
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National Reconciliation
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Civil-military relations
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Peace process
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Center-periphery relations
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Federalism
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Economic reforms
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Foreign Policy and International Relations
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Foreign Policy & IR (1)
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Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has said that she would use foreign policy
practiced in 1950s, i.e, during her mother's time as ambassador
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President Obama called U Thein Sein right after the election results are
out to congratulate him and the government for successfully holding a
historic free and fair general election
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Japan invited U Nyan Win, NLD's spokesperson and top aid of Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi to Tokyo right after the election. Foreign Minister met him
and said that Japan will help Myanmar when NLD took power
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Chinese ambassador became the first ambassador to meet NLD
chairman after the election
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So, the trio, Japan, China and United States might have a keen interest on
Myanmar
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They might be the countries with the most to lose or gain
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Foreign Policy & IR (2)
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Chinese, Japanese and American researchers are very busy in Yangon and
Nay Pyi Daw
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China is the largest investor and largest trade partner to Myanmar. It shares
long border with Myanmar and some strong ethnic armed groups such as
Wa State Army and Kachin Independence Army KIA are headquartered on
China-Myanmar border
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Japan is involved with Myanmar from peace process to education to city
planning. Japan has just cancelled another 4 billion dollars worth of
Myanmar debt. Lender-in-chief
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U.S is the sanctioner-in-chief on Myanmar and yet to release Myanmar from
all sanctions
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Foreign Policy & IR (3)
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Relationship with China is tricky though she was probably the first ever Nobel Peace
Laureate to meet Chinese president in Beijing during her visit to China while her fellow
Chinese Nobel Peace Prize holder is behind bars
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Since United States and China are perceived to be competing in Myanmar, Myanmar
cannot choose between China and United States. Japan is a major ally of U.S and will
compete against China in economic terms. Too risky. It is not an‘either or’ issue. It is a
‘both and’ issue.
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SHE has mixed feelings about India’s relations with the military government. But, she
studied in India and has many Indian friends. So, it can safely be assumed that
relationship with India would be better.
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Relationship with the west will become better as she was raised in the west and the
western countries have supported her since 1989
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United Kingdom is the country of ¾ of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s family, and former
colonial master of Myanmar. So, UK should walk a fine line in dealing with Myanmar as it
can be seen as interfering in Myanmar affairs.
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Asean is not a region known for democracy. We have communist states, a kingdom, and
countries with long one-party rule. So, Myanmar shedding authoritarian past is an
inspiration for the region’s democrats. There are already talks about Myanmar's role as
Asean's leader
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No happy ending
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Post-election looks like a ‘happy ending’ and we will happily
live ever after
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However ‘Happy beginning’ would be a more relevant word
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Though this election is a major step for Myanmar, this is just a
major milestone on the long road to democracy and
prosperity
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We have to build on this kind of enthusiasm to build the
country we aspire to
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Voters have done their part, now is the time for the elected to
take the country to the next level
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Thank you