Death Rates Vary
Among Cars by More
Than 700 Percent
Many Cars Performing Better (or Worse)
Than Predicted
Occupant deaths occur lar more often
in some cars than in others. Insurance
Institute lor Highway Safety researchers
computed death rates lor 1985-87 cars
and found that, among the 103 biggest.
Actual death rates lor individual car
series tell only part of the story (see
Death Rates Vary Among Cars by More
Than 700 Percent) because they re influenced by the age and sex of the people
who drive them. as weU as by the size 01
the cars. So Insurance Institute lor Highway Safety researchers computed for
each of 103 popular car series a
predicted as well as an actual
death rate, with the predicted
rate taking into account the
three important factors influencing the actual death rate. The
researchers developed a regression
model relating actual death rates to car
size, driver age, and driver sex. Because
vehicle registration information cannot
be broken down by age and sex, the researchers' model uses information about
the drivers in the fatal crashes.
Specifically, the researchers estimated
a nonlinear relationship between the
death rates of individual vehicle series
and their wheelbases, proportion of occupant deaths that occurred with drivers
under 30 years old, and proportion 01
male drivers. (A detailed explanation of
the research methods is available from
the Institute on request.)
From this model, the researchers coor
puted a predicted death rate for each car
series using its actual wheelbase, propor·
tion of young drivers, and proportion of
male drivers. Then the researchers com(See Beffe, or IIbrse, p. 3)
selling vehicle series, the one with the
lowest death rale is Volvo's lour-door
740/760, a midsize Specially car, with
0.6 deaths for each 10,000 of
these cars registered. The series with the highest death
rate (5.2) Is the Chevrolet
Corvette, a small sports car.
The Corvette's death rate is more
than eight times as high as the
Volvo's (see table on pages 4-5).
For each vehicle series, rates were
computed from the total number of occu-
pant deaths and registrations that occurred in the three calendar years. 198688. (A vehicle series [s a family of cars
within a make that has the same wheel-
base and a degree of commonality in construction such as body, chassis, etc.) Results for individual 1985-87 series are pre-sented only for those with at least 150,(XXl
registrations dUring 198&18 (1988 models
aren't included because registrations are
counted midyear when new cars are still
being sold). Results lor all cars and for
each car size/body style group were coor
puled from death and registration counts
lor all vehicle series, regardless of the
numbers registered.
Car size is an important influencing
(See 700% lllrialion, p. 2)
-------
-
_.
--- -
than 75,000 OCCII·
died in hi,hway
,., wtrt they traotl·
hflher dtGlh ra'n
..8ch higlwr?
death rottl? Who'
rtfocuaud._
_ e......
buarrarttt do;.
IIIe •• POtu 4-S
I~DOO"'­
'"'''IN am>n/'"
- - - - - --- - - - - ---- - - . -- -- - . - - - _. -
_.
~
-
.-
._--..
- - . _..
_--------
2-1IHS Stams Reparl, Val. 24, No. II, November 25, 1989
700% Variation
(Canl'd from p. /)
factor on death rates. Of the 10 individual
vehicle series with the lowest death rates,
three are large and six are midsize cars.
Only one is a small car. Twelve 01 the 15
cars with the highest death rates are
small. The other three are midsize. None
are large.
Large two-door cars are the size/body
style group with the fewest deaths per
10,000 registered cars. The next best
group is large specialty cars, followed by
large and midsize station wagons. The
group with the highest number of deaths
per 10.000 registered vehicles is small
sports/specialty cars.
Death rates vary not only by car size
but also within size and body style groups.
Among small four.<Joor cars, for example,
the Volkswagen Jetla has the lowest death
rate (1.1). The rate for the lour·door
Chevrolet Chevette, another small car, is
nearly four times as high (4.1).
The mix of occupant deaths between
single- and multiple-vehicle crashes varies
considerably, too, with small cars usually
having a higher proportion of their deaths
in single-vehicle crashes, compared to
large cars. Chevrolet's Corvette has the
highest proportion of single-vehicle crash
deaths (83 percent) among all 103 car series, and Oldsmobile's Cutlass Ciera station wagon has the lowest (13 percent).
Another important influence on death
rates, besides car size, is driver age. Cars
with high percentages of fatal-erash-involved drivers who are under 30 years old
tend to have higher death rates. The sex of
the driver is important, too. Cars with high
percentages of female drivers tend to have
lower death rates (see table on pages l). 7).
These three factors - car size and driv·
er age and sex - explain some 01 the dif·
ferences in death rates among cars. But
they don't explain them all. The Honda
Prelude, for example, has a relatively low
death rate (1.5), even though it's small and
has a relatively high percentage of drivers
under 30 (4i percent). Its percentage of
male drivers is about average (GO percent).
To account for the effects of car size
and driver age and sex on death rates, Institute researchers used a regression model with these three variables to compute a
predicted death rate for each car series.
Then they compared predicted and actual
rates (see Many Cars Performing Better (or
Worse) Than Predicted, page I).
IIHS SlOIUS Repo", 1bI. 24, No. II, Nooember 25, 1989-3
Better or Worse
who are in its fatal crashes.
Among all 103 vehicle series,
(Conl'd /rom p. I)
pared predicted death rates
the following nine perform far
with actual ones. Among 103
vehicle series (1985-87 model
years) for which actual and
predicted death rates were
computed, 58 perfonned better
than predicted during calen·
dar years 198&88. Thirty-nine
performed worse. Six cars
have actual occupant death
rates that match their predicted rates.
What's especially Interesting are the differences that institute researchers found between cars' predicted and actual death rates. This comparison tells us how much better
or worse each of the cars is
perfonning than we would ex·
pect. given the car's size and
the age and sex of the drivers
Tht Ml400r IflSSQ// Sentro".t (om) tKtutJI. ocrupoll1 dtaIh roJe is 65 perttllJ /ofv
InslIture resemt:Mrs predicted from i15 u:hHl~ and dlll:ers· age Dnd sa
- be:sI al1lOllg all /(JJ car smes. 7tH> (oor-douOwCrolf'1 CheL't!nes (be!0UJ) octual
rote 1$ J/6 perrell1 h~ (lion ptedlCltd - by far the 1COrSI.
tr Ilton
better than predicted after
taking car size and the age
and sex 01 drivers inlo account: Nissan Senlra twodoor. Volvo 740/760 lour-<l001,
Volkswagen Jetta lour-door,
Ford Taurus station wagon.
Honda Prelude, Chevrolet
Cavalier station wagon. Ford
Escort station wagon, Toyola
Celica, and Toyota Cressida
lour-<l001.
The following seven cars
perform far worse than predicted: Chevrolet Chevetle
four-door, Plymouth Reliant
four-door, Chevrolet Celebrity
two-door, Dodge Aries lour-
door, Chevrolet Corvette,
Chrysler leBaron lour-<loor,
and Chevrolet Sprint twodoor.
~/H5 Sla"'s Repan,
1bI. 24, No. II, Naaember 25, 1989
Actual and Predicted Deaths per 10,000 Registered Passenger Can
AI,
85-87
85-81
85~7
8&07
8&07
_Vor_
Chevrolet Capnce
Dodge Caravan
Ford Aerostar
Chevrolet Astro Van
AI,
8&07
8&07
8&07
8&07
8&07
..
..
8&07
8&07
8&07
LARGE
8&07
8&07
8&07
8&07
8&07
Ford Taurus
Oldsmobile Cutlass CMlra
""""""" """*
c_~
Toyota C,esslda'
85-87
85-87
86-87
85-87
85·87
Buick Cenlury
Volvo 240
Pontiac Gland Am3
Chrysler LeBaron GTS
B6~7
M9fcury Sabje
85-87
B6~7
Pontiac 6000
Ford Taurus
86·87
Oklsmobile Calais3
Oldsmobile Cu~ass CI&fa
B6~7
HondaAceord
85·87
85·87
85-87
85·87
85·87
85-87
85-87
85-87
Mmcury Topaz'
Oldsmobile Cutlass
Chrysler New YOIker
Plymouth Caravelle
1.2
12
22
..
..., ..•. ,
.. I.'. ,
L7
••
15
15
15
1.2
16
"
I'
'.7
"
12
..2
..2
.,
.",
......
.. ,,
.. ,,
.,
1.3
..,
"
19
1.9
1.5
L7
2.0
L7
20
..9
1.7
20
I'
,.,
Pontiac Sunblrd
25
Plymouth Reliant
Dodge Anes
2.'
2.9
2.'
85~7
_C~
". ,
I'
""
""
""
""
""'
'"
""
30%
,,%
""
20%
2'"
21%
,%
5%
""'
..,
1.7
16
..9
""
"'"
35%
27
""'"
"""'"
Reoauftomn
AIi.a/'loe;Encorl
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.'
25
_ _M
26
26
2.'
2.'
2.5
1.9
-
volksWagen GoIl2
Subaru OllGl Sedan
_"ool'
"""""""
"""""'"
""""""" """"""
32
"
21%
53%
56%
"""""""
,..
""
""'"•.
22
2.0
2.'
2.'
""" """',
""
''''
""
""
""
""
""
""
35%
,,%
25
17
""
""
25"
'.4
.,
""
"'"
""
I"
"5
Chrysler LeBaron
85~7
66~7
L7
_.600
Vokswagen JettaJ
8&07
8&07
8&07
20
"
2.0
2.5
..9
Mazda 6263
Toyota Corona
8&07
8&07
8&07
...s,
19
2.0
2'
2.'
2.'
Ford Tempo!
Dodge Lancer
Nissan Maxlma3
Chevrolet Cavalier
85~7
85~7
S"
..,
85~7
66~7
..2
2.'
'.7
L7
L7
Chevrolet Celebr~y
AI,
8&07
,''''
L7
I'
•••
2.0
..,
-.. ..
.....
Actu.I DtIf. from P,edlcl*t
"
...
'.7
85-87
85~7
"
"
". ,
07
..2
....... OlJGL
BuidlleSabre'
85~7
15
20
Mercury Grand Marquis
Suban.r DtJGl 4WO
86~7
85·87
85·87
85-87
85-87
"2
"""'"
"""""""
85~7
..
..
.... ..,
"
2.0
Buick EJectra
Ford Crown Vldona
C/vysleI New Yor1uIr SIh Ave
Oldsmobile Delta 88'
OldsmObile Ninety-E'Ohl
ChllYl'Olet CapnceJlmpala
85~7
......
.... ........-
2.1
2.'
,.,
2.1
"
""'
""
10%
32%
,..
""
"6%
lII/S SlalUS Report, 1bI. 24, Na. II, Naaember 25, 1989-5
1985-87 Models During 1986-88, by car Size and Body Style
......
....
AI
AI
....,,
....
...,
......,,, ---,"""'"
.........,,, ""'T......
.........,,, 'on!
......,,,
..., ........, .......
......,,
-""'"
PonllaC Grand Pm
----
12
""'--"
1.'
1.,
1.,
~""""
1.'
2.0
r-
Chow... """"'"
"-'
Chow... c..-
ChevrolM Morlle Car'cI
87
86·87
"87
85-87
85·87
86·87
85·87
85-87
NlSS8I1 Sertlrl
Toyotil Celoca
Toyota CofoIIa
Nl$S3f1 200SX
..
....
~o
2.'
2'
V
....,,
Lincoln Town Cal
0.'
Cadillac FI'wood/Devllie 40
Cadillac FI'Wood/Devllie 20
U
U
85-87
Cadillac Brougham 40
85-87
85-87
85·87
85·87
AI
85-87
"87
85·87
85·87
..,
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.'
U
85·87
85·87
85·87
Volvo 7401760 40"
Aooi 5000 40
BMW 3·Serles 20
PonTIac Flfebird
Ford Mustang
Chevrolet Camara
Pontaac Fiero
Honda CI\Iic CRX
NIs5an 300ZX
Chevrolet CofvetIe
A - . . 'or All
c.r.
"""
""
,'"
33"
""
,."
""
""'"
2.'
3.'
2.'
2.'
3.'
3.3
2.'
2.9
32
2'
2.6
2.'
3.3
,.
""
""
""
""
""
."
'"
,.
"
U
3.'
3.'
3.'
3.'
3.'
3.
'3
'.2
3.6
...
'.9
3.'
36
3.9
'.2
'.2
'"
,."
,."
."
21%
''''
57%
35%
.."
'"
""
"
Note I -
aD 1985-87 models 9qUlpped with automatic salery belts
Note 2 -
some 1985-87 models
Note 3 -
some 1987 models Bql)Ipp8d with automatIC safety belts
Note 4 -
some 1987 models equ.pped with air bags
Note 5 -
smaH number 01 1986-87 models equipped with air bags
~
."
33"
3.1
2.6
3.'
'"
""
""
."
""
""
""
,."
1.2
3.1
06
--
DIft. from P,",*,
2.'
1.'
1.'
1.6
'.3
2.'
25
2.6
30
3'
3.'
3.'
Chevrolet Spl'lnt
~ ChargerlShelby
-
~
~,
2.'
85-87
85·87
85-87
1.'
2.'
2.'
1.,
2.'
1.'
2.'
2.'
1.5
2.2
2.6
Z1
85-87
.11
85·87
......"
"
Renal,lh AlIianeeJEncote3
Ford Esc;:on3
Dodge DaytOl'la s
Chevrol&l Chevene
P1ymou1tl Tunsmo
.11
1.3
2.2
1.2
OIdsmobole Cutlass Ci&ra
........, "'""' Am'
Aft
•.•••,
....
p,edlcItId
with automatic safety belts
""
""
"""
."
6-IIHS SlaIUS Report, 11>1. 24, No. 11, November 25, 1989
Additional Information About Cars Listed on Pages 4and 5
WIIM'l»M
An
15-8'
15-8'
15-"
86-"
15-8,
......, ,
85·87
85·87
85·87
85-67
_Vor""
Chevrolet Caprice
Dodge Caravan
FOfd Aefostar
ChevJoIet Astra van
FOfd Taurus
U16
Oldsmobile Cutlass Ciera
105
Chevrolet Cavalier
Chevrolet Celeb<ity
P1 mouth Reliant
Subaru DUGl 4WD
86·87
Ford Escon
85-87
Subaru OUGL
AI
........,,
....,
15-8,
15-8,
U'
U9
U'
00'
A"
85-87
15-8,
15-8,
15-8,
"'
'"
'"
Mercury Grand Marqul$
Buick Eleclra
fOld Crown VIdOfia
0wY* New y~ 5Ch
Oldsmobile DeIllI 88
0Idsm0bIl8 N.-ty·Eight
~c.o-_
BuOleSabre
AI
""""'"
_'40
...., ....
'"
105
100
"
91
94
91
00'
as-87
85-87
Chryslef leBaron GTS
15-"
15-"
85~'
85~'
.,..,
....
.,..,,
85-87
15-8,
AI
15-8'
15-"
15-8,
85~'
86-"
15-8,
15-8'
as-81
85-81
85-81
86-87
85-87
85·87
15-"
""
Mercury Sable
Ponllllc6000
105
Ford Taurus
10'
Oldsmobile CalaIs
Honda Aceord
'03
'02
'00
M8rcury Topaz
U16
Oldsmobile Cutlaas
108
Chrysler New Yorker
Plymouth Cara'l8lle
Chevrolet CeieOnty
'03
'03
fordT~
"""" """"
Nissan Maxtma
Chevrole1 Caval..-
-T_"""""
"""" 600
_So."""'
"' ""'"'"
v_ _
""""...... '"
245795
237391
""'"
192635
206594
333760
474547
158117
1398753
297623
216394
202298
'"
m
m
"'
m
PontI3C Grand Am
Ok:Ismobile Cutlass CI&f3
86-87
8S-87
85-87
85·87
85-87
85-87
441432
916408
504992
125090
91398'
,,.
104
103
105
103
85-87
86·87
..
,,, ,
5332141
u"
....,
..."
Coumo
:U71121
424297
,,.
'"
m
Toyola Cf8$$lOa
15-8'
15-8,
15-8,
""'M6of,
65933'
654103
649393
._,
"""
22863<
1165207
194789
236809
1416518
354129
20<331
858217
572652
152219
711315
324770
351615
343965
222930
-..... -- -'
•
10
5
8
3
10
11
311880
.
91
99
96
50
"
"
91
66
U
9
4
58
11
64
20
10
4
"""
,."
"
",
,
"""
9
25
29
",
4
"
27
426045
385292
33
"""
_C~
91
ford Escort
Chevrolet Nova
94
96
VobWageo GotI
Subaru DLtGL Sedan
91
91
Dodge Omni
99
98
301139
561.12
111.13
2«318
393063
2595<41
64
359094
30
99
29
95
462259
257252
91
235068
Renaun AJlianceJEncore
Hyundal Excel
Plymoult1 Horizon
Chevrolet Spectrum
CheVrolet Chevette
400643
53
66
17
T1
63
T1
1311723
''''''
"
"
22
"
""25
'00
66
"
,
,,
,
,
,,
'46549
'"'00
38
.,27
"""
""
.
..
31
50
62
54
45
'"'03
290464
28
8
30
26
'00
""
"
13
9
30
1511862
1136992
257199
949226
10
85
31
..
8
'"
'00
'03
'00
72
60
13
60
..
26
25
"
"
21
31
"
50
14
61
"
18
66
""
16
62
15
13
50
"""
13
38
25
26
..
28
30
36
"
29
33
25
33
OJ
.
"
.,"
.,"
33
26
32
"
31
36
"
20
." ."
"
."" ""
"
.
""
36
24
32
58
40
50
30
64
22
29
64
21
35
54
32
39
.
63
10
n
52
""
..
62
53
..
24
31
29
42
36
"
45
21
""
/DIS Status Report, IbI. 24, Na. II, Nooember 25, 1989-7
...,......,,,
Al'
Al'
"..,
"..,
"..,
"..,
"..,
"..,
"..,
,,~,
,,~,
,,~,
,,~,
"..,
,,~,
Al,
..
87
"..,
,....,,
---
PQflbac Grand Pox
Oldsmobile Cullass c ...
~"""'u
--
Buick Skytlawll
~""'"
Ford Tempo
Pon~ Gr.".;I
Am
Ford 1l'lundlwtMfd
o-e-.y
",,"'" ""'0-"""'-
Chevrolet Monte Carlo
""""" ",,"'"
.......
-"'""""
.....
To~ota
c.ra
85·87
"..,
85·87
85-87
Chevrolet ClwlYene
Nissan 200SX
Renau~ Alhance/Encore
Plymouth Tuusmo
Chevrolet Sprint
Dodge Chafg&liShelby
LiIlC01r'1 Town Car
CadilillC Fl'woodlDevllle 40
Cadillac fl'woodlDeville 20
Cadillac Brougnam 40
.11
."
85·87
85·87
85-87
85·87
I
Aud15000 40
BMW 3·Serles 20
Pontiac; Flrebird
Ford Muslang
Pontiac Fi&ro
HOIlda Clllie CRX
NlSsan 300ZX
ChsvroIeI. CorYen,
33"
"
"33
"
eo
52
68
57
63
60
50
50
38
256783
500293
360532
.."
II
...""
..
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.
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.
.
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....... . " .
.
"
.
.
. "'''''
.
""'"
32
25
57=-
614476
836119
156198
6760'56
"
"
65
68
796838
33
38
65
30
515309
52
67
""260
32
38
56
56
96
219194
59
63
50
97
417450
60
52
95
96
96
..
"
"'33'
228112
." ..
179729
"30
"
97
25''''
'"
'"
'"
""'''
35
,,•
6
797011
222238
'"
'"
,
.,,
"
.....
299773
"240544
'06
236559
196049
505787
38
"50
816331
..
"
"
923385
,.....,
93
87
378815
332496
"
""97
60
"30
161869
I
. .878302
68
52
60
63
628888
>0,
70
.
.
,.....
"
60
63
""
601516
97
IU'
37
53
"'220
247267
96
c.-
I
27
""
50
51
73
7B
62
0<
B2
""
79
"
68
0<
79
"
0
length in inches
RegIStratIOn Counts Percent Young Percent Male -
20
,,-
'"
'"
"
Chevrolet Camara
Wheelbase -
•
""
215330
183179
0<""
",
'"'"
Volvo 7401760 40
A-.ge for All
32
,."..
97
.11
85-87
85·87
""'"
..",.,
341379
FOld Escort
Dodge Daytona
as-81
eou""
You..
99
_c..
...87
85·87
85·87
85,87
,
-.
85
Toyota Corolla
85·87
85-87
85·87
85-87
,'"
"
'"'02
''''
",
'"
'"
""
,'"
>0,
,
,'"
'"
''''
>0'
"..,
"..,
".,
".,
.......
--.. -.
...
sum of vehicles registered in each calendar year
percent 01 deaths in cars with drivers under aoe 30
percent 01 deaths In cars with male drivers
Pe«:ent SIngle-Vehicle -
percent of deaths in Single-vehicle crashes
57
27
"
51
35
"
57
32
"
26
..
33
22
53
56
68
63
59
68
.""
69
63
.
SMALL
Special Issue
Vol. 24, No, II, November 25, 1989
This special issue of Status Report focuses
on death rales by car make and model.
Other special issues have focused on the
following subjects:
Designing Safer Vehicles
Truck Crash Congestion
Making Traffle Laws ~rk
Seat Beh and Helmell...aws
NlffSA: Safety Rules
Vehicle Size and Death Rates
U.s. Sofety Acts
Seat Belt Use Laws
School Bus Safety
Seat Belt Use Laws
Teenagers Driving
The Injury FocI Book
Automatic Restraints
Truck Crashes
Small Car Hazards
Drunk Driving
24~,
1989
21121988
23,6,1988
22:13,1981
22~, 1981
221,1981
21011,1986
2It.12,1985
2It.5, 1985
19014.1984
19010.1984
191,1984
18:18,1983
18:4,1983
1i:20.1982
11,18,1982
STATUS REPORT
f\.'Il1l, \ '\,( I
r-.."I1111111
'"
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1005 NOlIh Glebe Road
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The InJurllltt Institute lor Itigfl"'-ay Salety Is an Independenl, nonpro(il. JCJefIlllk and tdutatlontl orpnlzation.lt is
dedicated to m1uctng the lones - deaths, Injuries and
property d.lmage - resultinB !rom cruhes onl!le ~Ioo 5
hIgIrwJ)l. The lrutllute Is supported by tilt Amerlan IllIllIInCe ttigb.-ay Sakty A55ocWIon, the American murm
~"lIY SIIey AIllaocf. the NalIoniI AuodItIoo olindeprDdent Insulm 5IIefy A.uodItion and ~,J indlo.idwl
"""'
...... ""-
CoIdcnU l1li)' be ~ lIl'IM»t. Of mput. with ittri-
ISSN 00l8-988X