Data on Secondary Cities Urban Climate Resilience in Southeast Asia Partnership Lusha Zhou, University of Toronto Table of contents Climate change projections for project cities Climate change projections for 2050 Climate change projections for 2090 Cambodia Table Maps Myanmar Table Maps Vietnam Table Maps References Notes 3 4-5 6-7 8 9 10-16 17 18 19-27 28 29-30 31-36 37 46 2 Climate change projections for selected cities Climate projection: ECHAM4 A2-PRECIS RCM to 2050 Precipitation change (millimeters) Cambodia Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Battambang Koh Kong Bago Dawei Khon Kaen Mukdahan Lao Cai Ninh Binh -50 to 50 -200 to 200 50 to 200 -50 to 500 -50 to 200 50 to 200 -50 to 500 50 to 500 to 2090 Max temperature change (Celsius) 1 to 3 2 to 3 2 to 3 2 to 3 2 to 3 1 to 2 2 to 3 2 to 3 Precipitation change (millimeters) 50 to 500 50 to 500 200 to 500 >500 200 to 500 200 to 500 50 to >500 >500 Max temperature change (Celsius) 3 to 4 3 to 5 4 to 5 3 to 5 3 to 4 3 to 4 4 to 5 3 to 4 Table compiled from following four maps: Southeast Asia START Regional Center. GMS Climate Change Map. Retrieved from http://gis.gmseoc.org/ClimateChange/start2/index.html 3 4 5 6 7 Cambodia 8 City, Province Population (millions) Province Battambang Kampong Chhnang Serei Saophoa, Banteay Meanchey Siem Reap Sihanoukville 1.025 0.472 0.678 0.896 0.200 Contacts, Projects, Research Regional Linkages Economy Climate Change 0.141 • Cities Development Initiative for Asia (CDIA): Urban Improvements to Mitigate Climate Change • Cambodian Education and Waste Management Organization composting pilot • WB climate resilience pilot • Widening national road 5 between Battambang and Serei Saophoan • National road 57 to Thailand, link to 5 • Agriculture • Livestock • Food processing • Mining • Tourism • Flooding • Drought 0.043 • ADB climate resilience pilot: climate-proofing roads • International airport to resume operations • Agriculture • Livestock • Clay, pottery • Marble • Flooding • Bank erosion • Drought 0.062 • ADB Flood-Resilient Infrastructure Development; Integrated Urban Environmental Management • Widening national road 5, which connects to Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City • Agriculture • Marble • Iron ore • Tourism • Flooding • Drought 0.169 • ADB Flood-Resilient Infrastructure Development • Airport expansion • Tourism • Craft products • Hospitality • Flooding • Drought • UN-Habitat Sustainable Sihanoukville through Climate Change Planning and Adaptation • 2008 Special Economic Zone next to only international deep sea port, handling 2/3 of sea traffic • Port readies IPO • Tourism • Luxury gaming resort planned • Sea level rise • Coastal erosion • Flooding City 0.089 9 City, Province Population (millions) Province Takhmau, Kandal 1.265 Contacts, Projects, Research Regional Linkages Economy Climate Change • Tourism • Handicrafts • Nurseries • Banking • Flooding • Drought City 0.080 • Asian Development Bank “Green Cities” • EU environmental education • Completed bridge bypasses Phnom Penh, making Takhmau a potential transit point 10 11 Battabang, Kampong Chhnang, Serei Saophoan, Siem Reap, and Takhmau on the yellow southern corridor Transportation corridors maps (1 original, 1 cropped and zoomed in) Friend, R., & MacClune, K. (2013). “Regional Integration in the Mekong: Challenges of Urbanization and Climate Change.” Boulder, CO: Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International. 12 13 Railway maps (2 total) Toll Royal Railways. Gallery. Retrieved from http://www.tollroyalrailway.com/?page=gallery_list&lg=en 14 15 16 Biomes, climate maps (3 total) • World Bank Group (2011, April). “Vulnerability Risk Reduction and Adaptation to Climate Change Cambodia.” Retrieved from http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportalb/doc/GFDRRCountryProfiles/wb_gfdrr_climate_change_country_profile_for_KHM.pdf Note: I think these help explain why many of the selected cities have similar climate change issues. 17 Myanmar 18 City, Province Population (millions) Province City Bago Dawei Mandalay Mawlamyine, Mon 4.863 1.406 6.146 2.050 0.176 Contacts, projects, research Regional linkages • Korea Forest • Airport 2017 Service • Upgrading Yangon-Bago-Nay restoration of Pyi Taw highway degraded • Irrigation development project forests in Western Bago region Economy Climate Change • Forestry • Rice, agriculture • Fishing • Teak • Petroleum • Drought • Precipitation decrease • Storm intensity • Flooding 0.084 Plans (controversial, delay): • Deep sea port, industrial park, power plants • Dawei-Bangkok 8-lane highway and railway • Kunming railway 0.897 • Rangoon-Mandalay highway repair, which connects to Kunming • 2015 Japanese operates airport; expansion plans Yangon-Mandalay railway • improvement • Trade with China and India • Agriculture (products) • Heavy machinery • Tourism • Drought • Flooding • Earthquakes • Sea port construction Bago-Mawlamyine rail section • improvement goals • Agriculture • Fishing • Mining • Sugar, paper, rubber • 2016 cement factory • Tourism • Cyclones Coastal flooding • • Intense rain 0.208 • ADB: urban environment and public health • Tourism • Fisheries • Future power generation for Thailand • 2013 SEZ • Water pollution (mining) • Cyclones • Coastal flooding 19 20 Bago on the purple west corridor, which connects to the aqua east-west corridor at Mawlamyine. Dawei on the yellow south corridor 21 Mandalay at the southernmost point of the light blue Northern corridor Transportation corridors maps (1 original, 2 cropped and zoomed in) Friend, R., & MacClune, K. (2013). “Regional Integration in the Mekong: Challenges of Urbanization and Climate Change.” Boulder, CO: Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International. 22 Retrieved from http://www.seacitymaps.com/myanmar/myanmar_rail_map.jpg 23 MyanmarBurma. Major Ports. MyanmarBurma.com. Retrieved from http://www.myanmarburma.com/article/807/major-ports 24 25 26 27 Physical, climate maps National Environment Conservation Committee et al. Myanmar’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) to Climate Change. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/mmr01.pdf 28 Vietnam 29 City, Province Population (millions) Province Can Tho Da Nang Hue Lao Cai 1.222 0.993 1.124 0.657 Contacts, Projects, Research Regional linkages Economy Climate Change • Airport 2009, largest in Mekong River Delta • Ha River bridge 2010 • Cai Cui int’l seaport • Can Tho City-Chau Doc-Phnom Penh highway • 4th Key Economic Zone • Agriculture (rice) • Aquaculture Clay, peat, sand • • Tourism (islets) • Flooding • Erosion Sea level rise, • increased runoff, extreme rainfall • Airport, seaport expansion proposed • Danang-Quang Ngai highway Dragon bridge • • City deficits (2013) • Textiles • Aquatic products • High-tech industry • Tourism • Locomotives • Flooding • Typhoons • Storm intensity • Tourism • Fishery • Services: legal, banking, insurance • Energy • Mining • Flooding • Storm intensity • Typhoons Coastal erosion • City 0.731 • ACCCRN • World Bank Urban Resilience (CityStrength Diagnostic) • See Huong (2011) 0.771 • ACCCRN • World Bank Infrastructure Investment Project 0.303 • M-BRACE • Asian Development Bank (ADB) “Green Cities” Asia-Pacific Network for • Global Change Research • USAID Climate Change Resilient Development • Airport expansion to be international • Seaport expansion 0.077 • M-BRACE • World Bank Medium Cities Development Project • Haiphong-Yunnan railway • Kunming-Hanoi highway • Airport 2020 • Mining • Cross-border trade • Tourism (Sa Pa rice terraces) • Forestry • Flash flooding • Landslides • Droughts • Freshwater contamination 30 City, Province Population (millions) Province Ninh Binh Quy Nhon, Binh Dinh Vinh Long 0.927 1.510 1.041 Economy Climate Change 0.092 • CECR • Swedish Int’l Development Cooperation Agency (SIDCA): resource management and climate change • Inland port expansion • Trans-Vietnam rail integrated with transAsia route • Ninh Binh-Cau GieHanoi highway • Aqua products • Agriculture • Handicrafts • Limestone • Clay • Tourism • Flooding (local initiative to reinforce physical infrastructure) • Agriculture (waterlogging, salinization) 0.255 • ACCCRN • Green urban network • World Bank Environmental • Seaport services focus Sanitation Project for 2030, with multiple under construction • UN-Habitat and Cities Alliance City Development • Southern corridor to Strategies Myanmar port Dawei • Fishery • Aquaculture • Agriculture Industrial wharf • • Tourism • Flooding • Storm intensity • Typhoons • Coastal erosion • Drought (water pollution, saline) 0.103 • CECR • SIDCA: farmers’ resilience to climate change • Catholic Relief Services: disaster risk reduction • Adventist Development and Relief Agency: Livelihood Improvement for Building Resilient Communities • ADB climate change impact and adaptation • Agriculture • Aquaculture • Livestock • Clay • Sand • Inundation • Riverbank erosion and collapse Tree diseases • • Increased salinity Drought • Contacts, Projects, Research Regional linkages City • My Thuan and Can Tho bridges • 3 more industrial zones and 13 clusters planned 31 City, Province Population (millions) Province Vinh Yen, Vinh Puhc 1.029 Contacts, Projects, Research Regional linkages Economy Climate Change • Asian Development Bank “Green Cities” • EU environmental education Cai Lan port (Quang Ninh-Noi Bai (Hanoi) Int’l Airport-Vinh PhucYunnan highway • Agriculture • Aquaculture • Mining • Manufacturing • Inundation • Erosion City 0.080 32 33 Lao Cai, Ninh Binh, Vinh Yen (northern Vietnam on Eastern Corridor) 34 East West corridor (aqua): Da Nang, Hue; and southern corridor (yellow): Quy Nhon. 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Implications for addressing poverty and vulnerability, Urban Climate, Volume 6, December 2013, Pages 98-113, ISSN 2212-0955, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2013.09.002 48 Notes 49 In the tables I created, I chose to provide information more than evaluation. The goal was to help the partners evaluate a secondary city’s suitability as a site for the UCRSEA Partnership. I chose the more general approach because sometimes partners expressed potential conflicting criteria: ! A history of engagement, with local support and interest ! Developing new sites that have not been the focus of past projects For this reason, I grouped what information I obtained for contacts, projects and research under one category. That particular category offers information on past and current projects, whether affiliated with the current network or otherwise. I did not evaluate governance or local support and interest because such data was not comparable between all three countries, and experience would provide better evaluation on this measure. While the tables were designed to be informative rather than evaluative, there was a process of inclusion and exclusion in creating the tables. In the case of Vietnam, I included cities based on partners’ suggestions, whether directly or as part of past projects. This process produced eight cities to choose two from, and I did not add more since there was already investment in these cities. For Cambodia and Myanmar, I also included partners’ suggestions, but added other important secondary cities, which I evaluated based on their population, regional linkages, and economy. These criteria parallel the categorization of secondary cities based roughly on their size, role in the country’s urban hierarchy, and economic integration and diversification. All cities that made it onto the tables were experiencing climate change and urbanization. In the tables, I tried to focus on what was different or unique about each city. For climate change, where cities were experiencing very similar issues, in the case of Cambodia, I tried to provide maps that illustrate the geographical reasons. For urbanization, I focused on regional linkages and the economy, because these are the main drivers of urbanization, and sometimes the main distinctions between cities. For regional linkages, I primarily provided recent or ongoing projects. For economy, I included the main components, as well as sectors that were smaller but more unique or the focus of economic plans. I also listed both the province and city’s population data, partly due to the unreliability of statistics, partly to suggest potential for further urbanization. I see three themes that have not been mentioned directly on the tables: ! Availability of background information. This may be indirectly determined from the quality of information provided on the tables and the references. I read any available academic literature, news articles, press releases, 50 and other Internet resources I could find for each city. I originally also included print literature, but found that due to the rapid pace of change, they were often outdated. ! Location. I did not include a city’s proximity to universities or the travel considerations, mostly because I was uncertain about its comparative usefulness given limited space. As a pragmatic concern, it may already be covered as regional linkage was a reason to include cities in the first place. ! Sampling theory and “typical” secondary cities. While I chose the general, comparable categories for the three countries, the information I provided illustrates those cities based on their differences in these measures rather than their similarities. 51