3/4/2016
DAILY MONETARY REPORT
Monetary Analysis Department
Figures in million, expressed in their original currency.
BCRA
Stocks
Explanatory factors of Monetary Base and International Reserves
2-Mar-16
Monetary base
Currency in circulation
Held by public
Held by financial entities **
12 months
before
before
587,033
455,680
457,414
342,730
402,007
407,567
310,399
53,673
49,847
32,331
0
0
0
134,048
129,619
114,826
6,815
8,916
872
877
Current account in BCRA in foreign currency (1)
Change
Daily
589,728
Settlement check
Current account in BCRA
30 days
457,557 Monetary base
Monthly
y.o.y.
Nominal
Nominal
10,553
30,590
-5.5%
29%
120
169
-4.8%
33%
2,285
1,909
-5.4%
30%
-2,165
-1,740
-0.5%
66%
0
0
-44.2%
0%
10,433
30,422
-7.6%
17%
Currency in circulation
Held by public
Held by financial entities **
Settlement check
Current account in BCRA
2016 ytd
8,957 Variation factors
% over MB
change
Cash held by financial entities in foreign currency (1)**
Settlement check in foreign currency
(1)
Certificates of Deposits for Investment (CEDIN)
(1)
0
0
342
377
829 Monetary base variation
10,553
30,590
-34,161
0 Foreign exchange purchases
81
-3,620
-7,427
22%
-5
356
-7,457
22%
0
0
-4,300
13%
Government´s account in pesos
-5
455
2,551
-7%
Government´s account in dollars
0
-99
-5,708
17%
(3)
-46%
380 Public sector operations
Temporary Advances and Utility Transfers
-811
17,404
15,610
Repo operations
-815
17,384
15,350
-45%
4,151
463 BCRA Securities (4)
12,745
12,746
-66,741
195%
5,093
4,068
656 Other
-1,457
3,704
31,853
-93%
0
0
0 Memo:
-5
356
-7,457
22%
13,827
27,952
12,361 market
-71
-275
2,561
2,637
2,772
4,187
International Financial Institutions
0
-4
-283
327,550
331,850
251,450
Other public sector operations
0
-2
-111
Foreign exchange purchases
6
-226
-407
-212
-180
-3,912
135
137
7,274
LEBAC (2)
Repo operations and rediscounts
In Pesos
424,735
396,648
4,113
(1)
NOBAC (2)
Benchmark exchange rate-adjusted LEBAC
In dollars
322,112
Public sector adjusted by foreing currency purchases to
Repos
International reserves
Rediscounts *
Temporary advancements to National Government
International reserves
Dollar liquidity requirements
In pesos
In dollars
(1)
(1)
Gold, Foreign Currencies, Time deposits and Others
441,131
422,437
274,742
28,124
29,985
31,467
23,124
24,985
31,467
5,000
5,000
0
Foreign Currencies - Reverse Repo in USD with Non-residents****
Other (incl. change in USD market value of non-dollar
assets)
billion $
Monetary Base and Explanatory Factors
(last 30 days)
billion $
(5)
Broad Monetary Base
670
30
Monetary Base
Currency held by public ***
620
570
20
520
10
470
420
0
370
-10
320
270
-20
FX Purchases
Public Sector
Sterilization
Operations
Instruments
Other
Monetary Base
Mar-15
Monetary Base
%
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Reserves and Exchange Rate
billion US$
(y-o-y change)
45
220
$/US$
40
18
35
16
40
14
30
12
35
25
10
20
30
,
8
15
6
25
10
20
4
BCRA Reserves
5
2
Exchange Rate published by BCRA (right axis)
0
0
15
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
* Provisory data subjected to change in valuation
(1) Figures expressed in dollars. Provisory data subjected to change in valuation
(2) Figures expressed in Nominal Value. Lebac and Nobac issued to be repo's collaterals or guarantee of operations are not considered (those concepts, among others, explain the differences with the figures in the financial statements of the B
(3) Includes the monetary effect of current account remunerations.
(4) Includes the monetary effect of LEBAC and NOBAC.
(5) Main movements of financial entities' current accounts in the Central Bank. It does not include flows of International Financial Institutions due to "Rotatory Funds".
(6) Includes Settlement checks.
* Includes the monetary effect of the Bicentenary Overdrafts. Since October 3
** Provisory figures.
*** Includes settlement check.
rd
2005, rediscount stock includes interests and CER capitalized less regularized accounts.
****According to the provisions of paragraph 7 of the Board Resolution N° 44 of 01/28/2016, it is reported that the amount of the line " Foreign Currencies - Reverse Repo in USD with non-residents", shall not be considered Excess
Reserves as stated in Article 6 of Law N° 23.928 and its amendments.
3/4/2016
DAILY MONETARY REPORT
Monetary Analysis Department
Provisory figures, expressed in million.
Stocks
2-Mar-16
Variations (in %)
30 days before
Current Month
Last 30 days
2016 YTD
y.o.y
In pesos
Loans to Private sector
Overdrafts
Promissory notes
Mortgages
Pledge-backed loans
769,637
772,206
0.4
-0.3
-0.6
33.5
96,045
98,961
-0.2
-2.9
10.9
26.7
177,800
182,261
-0.8
-2.4
-7.8
33.4
54,937
55,131
0.0
-0.4
-0.7
14.8
21.9
39,987
40,259
0.0
-0.7
-0.6
Personal loans
166,562
163,706
0.2
1.7
3.3
35.7
Credit Cards
188,370
185,764
2.2
1.4
-0.4
52.6
Other loans
45,936
46,124
0.0
-0.4
-5.6
12.6
Deposits
(1)
1,170,337
1,186,092
-0.5
-1.3
-0.5
29.2
Current account (2)
336,038
352,814
-1.6
-4.8
-9.9
26.0
Savings accounts
243,482
255,040
0.1
-4.5
-3.9
27.6
Time deposits not adjustable by CER
550,345
536,017
0.5
2.7
7.5
32.2
16
40,456
15
42,206
0.0
-7.9
6.7
-4.1
23.1
8.1
77.8
24.9
Time deposits adjustable by CER (3)
Other deposits
Private Sector Deposits
922,774
913,375
0.3
1.0
1.4
37.3
(6)
438,459
429,386
0.3
2.1
-0.6
29.3
Time deposits (6)
456,466
455,728
0.8
0.2
3.1
46.8
247,563
272,717
-3.3
-9.2
-6.7
5.9
141,061
178,468
-4.7
-21.0
-23.8
19.3
93,895
80,304
-0.9
16.9
35.2
-10.9
Sight deposits
Public Sector Deposits
Sight deposits
(2) (6)
Time deposits (6)
In dollars
(4)
Loans to Private Sector
Deposits
Foreign lines of credit
Financial
Comercial
Liquidity ratio (5)
(C.A. in BCRA + Cash in vaults + Repo / Total deposits)
3,800
3,289
1.8
15.5
28.3
6.9
13,142
12,887
0.4
2.0
9.3
35.6
1,452
882
570
1,574
903
671
0.2
0.1
0.4
-7.8
-2.3
-15.1
-11.5
-7.6
-16.9
23.7
0.1
94.5
22.5
24.2
0.8
-1.7
-5.3
-1.1
Monetary aggregates
M1 (currency held by public +settlement check in peso+Current
accounts in pesos)
M2 (M1 + Savings account in pesos)
M3 (M2 + Time deposits in pesos + CEDRO adjusted by CER)
M3* (M3 + deposits in dollars + settlement check in foreign
738,045
760,381
-0.5
-2.9
-7.5
27.9
981,527
1,572,344
1,783,838
1,015,421
1,593,659
1,780,527
-0.4
-0.3
-0.1
-3.3
-1.3
0.2
-6.6
-1.8
1.2
27.8
29.3
36.8
currency + CEDIN)
(BCRA Current Account + Cash in vaults + Repo) / Total Deposits
Total and Private Sector Deposits in pesos
billion $
(includes CEDRO with CER)
%
1,300
Private deposits
32
Total deposits
1,200
30
1,100
28
1,000
26
900
24
800
22
700
20
600
500
Mar-15
18
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Monetary Aggregates
billion $
Mar-15
200
1,600
Private M3
180
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Loans to Private Sector in pesos
billion $
1,700
M3
May-15
billion $
Mortgages
Pledge-backed loans
360
Personal loans
Credit Cards
340
Commercial loans (right axis)
320
160
1,500
300
140
1,400
280
120
1,300
260
1,200
100
1,100
80
1,000
60
900
40
180
800
20
160
700
0
Mar-15
240
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Mar-15
220
200
140
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
(1) Corresponds to deposits of public and private sectors (excludes financial sector and resident abroad deposits)
(2) Net of the account known as "Use of unified funds".
(3) Not include accrued CER.
(4) In dollars.
(5) Includes pesos and dollars operations, the latter valued in pesos. Deposits are net of BODEN.
(6) Since December 9, 2008, it is shown the titular type change stated by the replacement of the Pension and Retirement Fund Administrators (Administradoras de Fondos de Jubilaciones y
Pensiones) rights and obligations to the Social Security National Administration (Administración Nacional de la Seguridad Social), envisaged by Law 26.425 (in the framework of the creation of the
Argentine Retirement Integrated System -Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino-, which has effect since December 9 2008, the corresponding balances of the former Retirement System (Sistema
Integrado de Jubilaciones y Pensiones) -Law 24.241 and complementary regulations- are considered as belonging to the Non Financial Public Sector).
3/4/2016
DAILY MONETARY REPORT
Monetary Analysis Department
Nominal annual interest rates (in percentage)
3-Mar-16
Other Markets
Average(1)
Average(1)
7 days before
30 days
Interbank loans rate in pesos
3-Mar-16
Last week
Last year
level
level
Dollar spot
Interest rate
32.50
25.66
21.39
Wholesale
15.20
15.39
8.74
Traded volume
3,592
3,963
2,980
Retail (7)
15.29
15.38
8.74
Pesos
27.83
24.10
24.51
NDF 1 month
15.44
15.61
8.90
Dollars
1.09
1.11
1.60
ROFEX (3) -Maturity 30-Abr-16-
15.28
15.55
8.89
Traded volume (all maturities)
11,904
11,142
1,746
Pesos
28.87
26.40
26.53
Dollars
1.88
1.63
2.50
Peso/real
4.01
3.90
2.94
Total
29.06
24.59
24.69
Peso/euro
16.72
17.00
9.68
Private Banks
30.50
26.34
26.40
13,328
12,936
9,668
415
317
177
1,600
1,594
1,183
542
551
331
Time deposits
30 days
Future dollar
60 days and more
BADLAR (2)
MERVAL
Overdrafts (1 to 7 days)
Index
More than $10 million
Stock Repos
30-day gross interest rate
Traded volume (all maturities)
34.59
28.53
25.60
32.00
571
27.70
587
27.76
542
Traded volume
Government bonds
BONAR X (4)
Discount $
1-month LIBOR
0.44
0.44
0.43
6-month LIBOR
0.89
0.88
0.86
2-year US Treasury bond
0.85
0.76
0.74
EMBI+ Argentina
484
461
586
FED Funds Rate
0.50
0.50
0.50
EMBI+ Latin America (without Argentina)
591
629
505
14.25
14.25
14.25
SELIC
Loans interest rates in pesos
Sovereign risk
(5)
Overdrafts
Promissory notes
Mortgages
Pledge-baked loans
Personal loans
Credit cards
34.53
33.51
22.64
29.05
43.14
42.33
December 2015 (6)
34.51
30.63
22.85
26.03
39.01
39.97
January 2015
30.83
26.63
23.77
28.08
38.42
40.55
Month
January 2016
(6)
Peso time deposits interest rate
%
Call market in pesos
%
40
33
Traded volume (right axis)
Up to $100 thousand (30-44 days) - Total banks
million $
Interest rate
5,000
35
Badlar- Private banks
5,500
4,500
30
30
27
4,000
3,500
25
3,000
20
24
2,500
15
2,000
21
1,500
10
1,000
18
5
500
0
15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
MERVAL
15,000
million $
700
Traded volume (right axis)
14,000
Mar-16
Index
600
13,000
500
12,000
0
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Exchange rates
$/USD $/EUR
18
Peso/Dollar
17
$/REAL
4.5
Peso/Euro
Peso/Real (right axis)
16
Mar-16
4.0
15
14
11,000
400
10,000
3.5
13
12
300
9,000
8,000
200
7,000
100
6,000
11
3.0
10
9
2.5
8
7
5,000
Mar-15
Mar-15
0
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
6
Mar-15
2.0
May-15
Jul-15
(1) Moving averages of 5 working days, centered 7 days before. In case of holiday, the weekly change focuses on the last working day of the previous week
(2) Corresponds to 30-35-day more than 1 million time deposits total operations.
(3) "Mercado a Término de Rosario S.A." peso/dollar future exchange rate index . Traded volume in millions of pesos.
(4) Market prices expressed in argentine pesos.
(5) Monthly weighted average rate.
(6) Provisory figures.
(7) Bid-Ask avearage.
Source: BCRA, IAMC, ROFEX and Bloomberg.
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16