Technologies and Policies for a
Sustainable Energy Future
From the global…
…to the local
Marilyn Brown
Professor of Energy Policy
Georgia Institute of Technology
POWER-UP Energy Forum
Birmingham, Alabama
December 12, 2013
1
Emerging Economies will Increasingly Steer
Global Energy Markets
2
Global energy demand will rise by one-third over the next 25 years.
Rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East are driving
the increase.
U.S.
30%
U.S.
19%
U.S.
13%
Share of Global Energy Demand
Source: International Energy Agency. 2012. World Energy Outlook.
Many Countries Will Increase their Oil and
Gas Import Dependency, but not the US
3
The US may become a major oil and gas exporter.
What will be the fate of alternative energy?
Source: International Energy Agency. 2012. World Energy Outlook.
The Door is Closing on 450 ppm CO2
4
Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions of the 450
Scenario are already “locked-in” by existing capital stock
World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Scenario
Source: International Energy Agency. 2011. World Energy Outlook.
In the Southeast, Annual Average Temperature
Has Risen about 2°F since 1970
5
Accelerated warming is forecast for the Southeast.
Source: http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/southeast.pdf
Energy Footprints and GDP
6
U.S.
Australia
Russia
Japan
South
Korea
China
Source: Energy Information Administration
U.K.
US Energy Efficiency (The Blue Wedge):
The Largest Energy Resource Since 1973-74
7
Energy Service
Demand
200
150
Actual Energy
Supply
100
Energy Service
Demand
Adjusted for
Imports
50
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
0
1972
1970 Energy
Demand
1970
Quads of Total Primary Energy
250
The Energy Efficiency of the US Economy Has Improved
Source: Skip Laitner & Steve Nadel, ACEEE, 2012.
Opportunities for US Energy Efficiency
Improvements Abound
Cost of Conserved Energy= the additional cost that must
be invested to implement energy-savings.
Source: National Academy of Sciences. 2009.
8
Cost Decline for Energy Technologies
9
•  Plenty of light, but not much heat
•  More choice, lower cost
•  By 2030, LED lighting will save
Americans over $30 billion a year in
electricity costs and cut America’s
energy consumption for lighting in
half.
•  A generation shift
•  99% cheaper than 35 years ago
•  part of this is due to oversupply in
the global PV market
•  The best opportunities to bring down
the price of solar energy are now
reductions in “soft costs.”
Source: DOE. 2013. Revolution Now: The Future Arrives for Four Clean Energy Technologies
Policies are Needed to Deliver Efficiency
US Supply Curve for Electricity Efficiency Resources
Source: Wang & Brown, 2013
10
The Impact of Affluence and Cheap Energy:
A Rebound Effect?
11
“Now that we have a heat pump, we can
afford a plasma TV and lots of lighting.”
You Can’t Manage what you Can’t Measure
12
Many meters allow frequent data
collection and bi-directional
communication:
ü
ü
ZigBee Rate saver
Enables dynamic pricing
Can interface with in-home or in-office
displays of online consumption information
Google Power Meter
Energy Orbs signal
expensive & inexpensive
times to use energy
12
Automatic Home Temperature Adaptation
13
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Contains sensors for temperature,
humidity, activity, light
Controlled through rotating ring on outside
and pushing on the front (á la iPod)
Automatically learns user behavior
Doesn’t heat/cool when no one is home
WiFi-enabled; control from computer, cell
phone
Detailed usage summaries available
online
$250 before installation; available directly
from Nest and Amazon, Apple Store, Best
Buy, Lowe’s, Home Depot,…
Nest thermostat
13
The US Green Economy is Progressing, But What
about the Bonanza of Cheap Natural Gas?
≈12%
Non-hydro renewable generation
(billion kWh/year)
≈5%
EIA forecasts that non-hydro renewable generation will triple by 2040,
with wind, biomass, and solar dominating.
Source: EIA, 2013
14
Few Southern States have Strong
RE or EE Policies
15
9 Southern States Do Not Have an RPS
RPS=Renewable Portfolio Standard
9 Southern States Do Not Have an EERS
EERS=Energy Efficiency
Resource Standard
Many Southern Cities are Participating in the
U.S. Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement
16
Source: National Academy of Sciences. 2010. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate
Change; data from http://www.usmayors.org/climateprotection/ClimateChange.asp
Distributed generation (wind, solar, CHP…):
Promising alternatives to central generation
17
—  Regulatory barriers
Input-based emissions standards
¡  Grid access difficulties,…
—  Financial barriers
¡  Access to credit and project
competition within firms
¡  Purchase power agreements,…
—  Information and workforce
barriers
¡  Workforce engineering knowhow,…
¡
Traditional
System
CHP
System
Power
ELECTRICITY
Plant
CHP
Boiler
4549%
Efficiency
HEAT
75- Efficiency
80%
Policy options are available to tackle these barriers.
The Job Generation Benefits of
Expanding Industrial
Cogeneration
18
Construction &
Installation
Operation &
Maintenance
Energy
Production
(Natural Gas)
25.0
19.8
20.0
15.0
15.5
14.5
10.0
6.6
Induced
Impact
7.4
5.7
5.0
-
CHP Construction CHP Operation &
and Installation Maintenance-Non
Fuel
Natural Gas
Job Coefficients by Sector
Electricity
Coal & Petroleum
Re-spending of
Utility Bill Savings
(Jobs per Million of Expenditures, in $2009)
Each GW of installed CHP capacity creates and maintains ≈2,000-3,000
full-time equivalent jobs throughout the lifetime of the system.
Grounds for Optimism
19
¡
¡
¡
¡
¡
Most of the 2050 physical infrastructure is not yet built –
with growth comes opportunity.
Clean technologies are improving
Grass roots efforts are promoting clean energy.
Carbon emissions have just begun to be priced: “market
signals” will spur innovation and demand for cleaner
options.
While we await federal action, states and localities are
moving ahead.
For More Information
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Dr. Marilyn A. Brown, Professor
Georgia Institute of Technology
School of Public Policy
Atlanta, GA 30332-0345
Marilyn.Brown@pubpolicy.gatech.edu
Climate and Energy Policy Lab:
http://www.cepl.gatech.edu