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Commodity Fundamental Research
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SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities)
st
1 August, 2013
CONTRACT
EXPIRY
DATE
CLOSING
PRICE
TREND**
DATE TREND
CHANGED
RATE TREND
CHANGED
CLOSING
STOP LOSS
NCDEX (AGRI)
Soy Bean (Oct)
18-Oct-13
2973.00
Down
22.07.13
3071.50
3080.00
Soy Bean (Nov)
20-Nov-13
2968.50
Down
22.07.13
3083.00
3100.00
Ref. Soy Oil (Aug)
20-Aug-13
651.95
Down
27.06.13
671.50
660.00
Ref. Soy Oil (Sept)
20-Sep-13
635.15
Down
27.06.13
664.35
645.00
RM seeds (Aug)
20-Aug-13
3149.00
Down
06.05.13
3573.00
3300.00
RM seeds (Sept)
20-Sep-13
3182.00
Down
12.06.13
3622.00
3330.00
Turmeric (Aug)
20-Aug-13
5100.00
Down
25.07.13
5570.00
5550.00
Turmeric (Sept)
20-Sep-13
5174.00
Down
25.07.13
5630.00
5600.00
Jeera (Aug)
20-Aug-13
12980.00
Down
29.07.13
12885.00
13600.00
Jeera (Sept)
20-Sep-13
13160.00
Down
29.07.13
13112.50
13900.00
Chilli (Aug)
20-Aug-13
5340.00
Down
31.07.13
5340.00
5750.00
Chilli (Sept)
20-Sep-13
5234.00
Down
6226.00
6000.00
5600.00
Chana (Aug)
20-Aug-13
2634.00
Down
25.04.13
3745.00
2780.00
Chana (Sept)
20-Sep-13
2675.00
Down
23.05.13
3569.00
2800.00
Cocud (Aug)
20-Aug-13
1568.00
Down
15.06.13
1613.00
1590.00
Cocud (Sept)
20-Sep-13
1622.00
Down
25.07.13
1557.00
1650.00
MCX (Agri)
Cardamom (Aug)
14-Aug-13
674.20
Down
25.06.13
768.90
720.00
Cardamom (Sep)
15-Sep-13
768.90
Down
25.06.13
820.00
820.00
Mentha Oil (Aug)
31-Aug-13
893.30
Down
27.06.13
974.40
960.00
Mentha Oil (Sept)
30-Sep-13
906.70
Down
27.06.13
989.30
950.00
COMMODITY
EXPIRY
DATE
CLOSING
PRICE
TREND**
DATE TREND RATE TREND
CHANGED
CHANGED
CLOSING
STOP LOSS
COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 31.07.13)
Silver (Sept) ($)
26-Sept-13
19.63
Sideways
22.07.13
20.51
-
Gold (August) ($)
28-Aug-13
1312.40
Up
23.07.13
1334.70
1250.00
Crude Oil (Sept) ($)
20-Aug-13
105.03
Up
02.07.13
99.60
103.00
Natural Gas (Sept) ($)
28-Aug-13
3.45
Down
02.05.13
4.025
4.00
MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 31.07.13)
Silver (Sept)
5-Sept-13
41520.00
Sideways
22.07.13
42234.00
-
Gold (Oct)
5-Oct-13
28056.00
Up
23.07.13
27574.00
27000.00
Crude Oil (Aug)
19-Aug-13
6409.00
Down
26.07.13
6211.00
6420.00
Natural Gas (Aug)
27-Aug-13
210.80
Down
25.06.13
221.40
226.00
MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 31.07.13)
Copper (Aug)
30-Aug-13
421.55
Down
26.07.13
408.30
430.00
Aluminum (Aug)
30-Aug-13
108.90
Down
26.07.13
104.00
109.00
Zinc (Aug)
30-Aug-13
111.95
Up
22.05.13
103.25
107.00
Lead (Aug)
30-Aug-13
126.40
Up
31.07.13
126.40
120.00
Nickel (Aug)
30-Aug-13
848.80
Down
13.06.13
818.50
860.00
Mild Steel Ingot (Aug)
20-Aug-13
26490.00
Down
04.03.13
30190.00
27900.00
LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 31.07.13)
Copper
3 Months
6880.00
Up
01.07.13
6979.00
6700.00
Aluminum
3 Months
1804.00
Down
18.06.13
1841.00
1880.00
Zinc
3 Months
1843.00
Down
13.06.13
1840.00
1910.00
Lead
3 Months
2070.00
Down
13.06.13
2085.50
2110.00
Nickel
3 Months
13875.00
Sideways
24.07.13
14370.00
-
**One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
Market Update (Agro)
Spices: The downside in cardamom futures may get extended owing to higher selling pressure. The first round of picking is under way
and around 80 per cent of arrivals were of the new crop. But 7-8 mm capsules were much less. The current round of picking may last till
the month-end. Superior grade material is expected to arrive during the second round. Turmeric futures (Aug) is expected to face
resistance near 5300 levels tracking weak sentiments of spot markets. Heavy arrivals pounded turmeric prices adding to the growers’
woes. On Tuesday, arrivals increased to 6,000 bags dragging prices. Prices in the other markets in Andhra Pradesh and Assam also
decreased. Because of the arrival of quality hybrid finger variety, its prices increased, but other varieties decreased. Jeera futures (Aug)
is likely to remain below 13200 levels. Continuing supplies in the domestic market put pressure on prices.
Oilseeds: Soybean futures (Oct) is expected to face resistance near 3040 levels. Higher stocks of about 10-15 lakh tonnes with growers
were may cap the upside. Weak global cues and slack demand dragged soyabean prices in Indore mandis to Rs 3,050-3,150 a quintal
(down Rs 300 from last week). In the current scenario, after planting a record area, soyabean growers in Madhya Pradesh and
Maharashtra are now looking for a pause in the monsoon to harvest a good crop. The standing crop in some low-lying areas in parts of
MP and Maharashtra, which have seen water inundation, has been affected. The crop had suffered due to excess rains, mainly in
eastern MP, pockets of Narmada Valley and Bundelkhand. In pam oil market, market participants in Malaysia are pinning hopes on a
weaker ringgit to bolster demand as the ringgit-priced feedstock becomes cheaper for overseas buyers and refiners trend has further
been weakened by reports of higher sowing in pulses during the current kharif season. On CBOT, November Soybeans closed up 3 1/4
at 1206 1/4. The USDA sees Argentina soybean production next year at 53.5 million tonnes, just short of a record high and against 50.3
million in the current marketing year.
Other Commodities: Sugar futures are expected to consolidate with upside getting capped. The Vashi spot market witnessed small drop
of Rs 2-4 a quintal as stockists offloaded at lower prices. The enough inventory stocks on hand and lower retail demand keep stockists
away from fresh buying. At the end of the current year (September end) closing stocks is expected around 85-90 lakh tonnes. Chana
futures (Aug) will possibly trade with a bearish bias & remain below 2700 levels. At the spot market, the downtrend continued in chana
with prices of chana (kanta) declining to Rs 2,775-2,800 a quintal (Rs 2,825-50) on slack demand and buying support in local mandis.
The trend has further been weakened by reports of higher sowing in pulses during the current kharif season. Wheat futures (Aug) will
possibly slip towards 1550 levels. In the physical market, dara wheat dropped further by Rs 5 and sold at Rs 1,460-1,465. Mill delivery
was at Rs 1,460 while delivery at the chakki was at Rs 1,465. Similarly, after ruling flat for almost three weeks, the desi wheat variety
dropped by Rs 50 and ruled at Rs 2,600-2,650 a quintal.
Market Update (Metals & Energy)
Bullions: Bullion counter may remain sideways with some short covering can be seen after yesterday sharp fall. On domestic bourses
some strength in the local currency rupee can cap the upside. Today ECB rate decision and US initial jobless claim data will give further
direction to the prices. Gold (Oct) contract can move in range of 27800-28300 in MCX. Silver (Sep) contract can move in range of 4100042500 in MCX. Gold traded little changed after the Federal Reserve said it will maintain its $85 billion in monthly bond purc hases while
persistently low inflation could hamper the economic expansion. “The committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent
objective could pose risks to economic performance,” the Federal Open Market Committee said today at the conclusion of a two-day
meeting in Washington.
Base Metals: Base metal complex may continue yesterday gains tracking firm international cues as investors will eye the US ISM
manufacturing data later today. Copper rose to the highest level in almost a week after China’s official manufacturing data unexpectedly
strengthened, suggesting demand from the world’s largest consumer is improving. The Purchasing Managers’ Index was at 50.3, the
National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today. Copper may trade in range of 416-425 in
MCX. Lead may trade in range of 124-128 while zinc may trade in range of 110-113 in near term. Aluminum may remain in range of 107110.
Energy: Crude oil may remain on positive path while Natural gas prices will get further direction from the weekly inventory data today.
West Texas Intermediate oil advanced for a second day, extending the biggest monthly gain since August 2012, as manufacturing
unexpectedly strengthened in China, the world’s second-largest crude consumer. Supplies at Cushing, the delivery point for WTI,
declined by 1.9 million barrels last week to 42.1 million barrels, according to a report from the Energy Information Administration. It was
the lowest level since April 2012. U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 1.7 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, the
Commerce Department said yesterday.
KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES OF US, EURO ZONE AND CHINA
IST
Economic releases
6:30
CNY Manufacturing PMI
7:15
13:25
13:30
17:15
CNY HSBC/Markit
Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Purchasing
Manager Index
Manufacturing
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing
EUR European Central
Bank Rate Decision
Impact on
Commodity
Adverse/Favourable/
Neutral
Importance
Expected
Previous
High
49.8
50.1
Medium
47.7
48.2
Medium
50.3
50.3
Metals and
Crude oil
Neutral
Medium
50.1
50.1
Metals and
Crude oil
Neutral
High
0.50%
0.50%
18:00
USD Initial Jobless Claims
Medium
344K
343K
19:30
USD Construction
Spending (MoM)
Medium
0.40%
0.50%
19:30
USD ISM Manufacturing
High
52
50.9
19:30
USD ISM Prices Paid
Medium
54
52.5
20:00
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change
Low
41
Metals and
Crude oil
Metals and
Crude oil
Metals and
Crude oil
Metals and
Crude oil
Metals and
Crude oil
Metals and
Crude oil
Metals and
Crude oil
Metals and
Crude oil
Adverse
Adverse
Neutral
Adverse
Adverse
Favourable
Favourable
Commodity Fundamental Team:
Vandana Bharti
AVP - Commodity Research
Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674
Sandeep Joon
Sr. Research Analyst
Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625
Subhranil Dey
Sr. Research Analyst
Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674
For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-
\25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651
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