TRANSPORT SECTOR REVIEW OF ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN AND GEORGIA Final Report Lauri Ojala lauri.ojala@tukkk.fi June 28, 2002 1 CONTENTS ACRONYMS 4 A. ABSTRACT 7 B. INTRODUCTION 8 C. THE SOUTH-CAUCASUS STATES’ SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILES ................................ 9 C.1. ARMENIA ................................................................................................................................... 12 C.2. AZERBAIJAN .............................................................................................................................. 17 C.3. GEORGIA ................................................................................................................................... 20 D. TRADE AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS ...................................................... 24 D.1. MERCHANDISE TRADE ............................................................................................................... 24 D.1.1. Armenian Trade performance 1996-2001 ....................................................................... 25 D.1.2. Azerbaijan trade performance ......................................................................................... 28 D.1.3. Georgian Trade developments ......................................................................................... 30 D.2. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ................................................................................................. 32 E. TRANSPORT SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS.................................................................................... 35 E.1. GLOBAL TRENDS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ............................................................................ 35 E.2. PUBLIC SECTOR RESTRUCTURING IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ................................................. 37 E.3. TRANSPORT SECTOR POLICIES OF THE SOUTH-CAUCASUS STATES ........................................... 39 E.3.1. Armenia ............................................................................................................................ 39 E.3.2. Azerbaijan ........................................................................................................................ 40 E.3.3. Georgia ............................................................................................................................ 43 E.4. MEMBERSHIP IN INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT ORGANIZATIONS AND CONVENTIONS ................. 44 E.6. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN THE REGION ........................ 47 E.7. TRANSPORT SECTOR PROJECTS AND IFIS, THE EU AND UN/ESCAP ......................................... 50 E.7.1. World Bank finance in the transport sector in the South-Caucasus States ...................... 51 E.7.2. EBRD finance in the transport sector in the South-Caucasus States ............................... 53 E.7.3. European Union assistance in South Caucasus ............................................................... 54 E.7.4. UN/ESCAP ........................................................................................................................ 58 F. ROADS AND ROAD TRANSPORT ........................................................................................... 59 F.1. ROAD NETWORKS AND VEHICLE STATISTICS .............................................................................. 59 F.1.1. Armenia ............................................................................................................................ 59 F.1.2. Azerbaijan ........................................................................................................................ 61 F.1.3. Georgia ............................................................................................................................ 62 F.2. ORGANIZATION OF THE ROAD SUBSECTOR ................................................................................. 63 F.3. SAFETY ISSUES ........................................................................................................................... 64 F.4. ECONOMIC AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON ROAD WORKS ........................................................... 66 F.5. ROAD FINANCING ....................................................................................................................... 66 F.5.1. Armenia ............................................................................................................................ 67 F.5.2. Azerbaijan ........................................................................................................................ 69 F.5.3. Georgia ............................................................................................................................ 70 F.6. ROAD TRANSPORT SERVICES ...................................................................................................... 71 F.6.1. Freight transport services ................................................................................................ 71 F.6.2. Long-distance passenger services .................................................................................... 73 F.7. URBAN TRANSPORT ................................................................................................................... 73 2 G. RAILWAYS ......................................................................................................................... 74 G.1. ARMENIA .................................................................................................................................. 78 G.2. AZERBAIJAN .............................................................................................................................. 81 G.3. GEORGIA ................................................................................................................................... 83 G.4. RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE MAINTENANCE ..................................................................................... 84 G.5. REGIONAL RAILWAY DEVELOPMENTS ...................................................................................... 84 G.5.1. International rail agreements .......................................................................................... 84 G.5.2. Trans-Asian Railway North-South Corridor ................................................................... 86 G.6. CONCLUSION ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. H. PIPELINE TRANSPORT ............................................................................................................ 88 I. PORTS AND MARITIME TRANSPORT ................................................................................... 91 I.1. THE PORT OF BAKU IN AZERBAIJAN ........................................................................................... 92 I.2. PORT OF POTI IN GEORGIA .......................................................................................................... 93 I.3. PORT OF BATUMI IN GEORGIA .................................................................................................... 95 J. CIVIL AVIATION ........................................................................................................................ 96 J.1. ARMENIA .................................................................................................................................... 96 J.2. AZERBAIJAN ............................................................................................................................... 97 J.3. GEORGIA .................................................................................................................................... 99 K. GENERAL TRANSPORT SUPPORT SERVICES ................................................................ 101 K.1. TRADE AND TRANSPORT FACILITATION .................................................................................. 101 K.2. LOGISTICS AND BUSINESS FRIENDLINESS OF THE SOUTH-CAUCASUS STATES ......................... 103 K.3. THE ROLE OF FREIGHT FORWARDERS AND CUSTOMS BROKERS ................................................ 106 K.4. CUSTOMS SERVICES................................................................................................................. 107 K.5. TRANSIT TRAFFIC COSTS AND PROCEDURES ............................................................................ 110 K.5. FREE TRADE ZONE AND LOGISTICS CENTER DEVELOPMENTS................................................. 113 K.5.1. Sumgait Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Project .............................................................. 113 K.5.2. First Logistics Center for Road Transport in Azerbaijan ............................................... 114 K.5.3. Free Trade Zone at Bina Airport, Baku .......................................................................... 114 K.5.4. Bonded Warehouse in Baku ............................................................................................ 114 K.5.5. Free Trade Zones near the Iranian Border .................................................................... 115 K.5.6. Free Trade Zones within the framework of CIS .............................................................. 115 K.6. FINANCIAL MARKETS AND SERVICES ....................................................................................... 115 L. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ............................................................................................ 117 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 120 ATTACHMENT C.1. ARMENIA AT A GLANCE....................................................................... 123 ATTACHMENT C.2. AZERBAIJAN AT A GLANCE ................................................................ 125 ATTACHMENT C.3. GEORGIA AT A GLANCE ...................................................................... 127 ATTACHMENT E.1. ARMENIAN EXPORT AND IMPORT BY MODE AND COMMODITY IN 2000, IN THOUSAND TONS................................................................ 129 ATTACHMENT F.1. VEHICLE AND OVERWEIGHT FEES FOR CROSSING THE GEORGIAN BORDER IN 2002 IN GEORGIAN LARIS ....................... 130 ATTACHMENT K.1. DATA OF THE ”LOGISTICAL FRIENDLINESS” SURVEY ............. 131 3 Acronyms ADDY Azerbaijan Dovlet Demir Yolu, the State Railways of Azerbaijan AMD Armenian Dram, 1 USD was approximately 575 Dram in April 2002 AR Armenian Road; The Road Administration of Armenia ARD Armenian Railways ASYCUDA Automated SYstem of CUstoms Data management developed by UNCTAD AZM Azerbaijan Manat, 1 USD was approximately 4,800 Manat in April 2002 BASA Bilateral Air Services Agreements, an international aviation convention b/d Barrels per day; one petroleum barrel is 42 gallons, i.e. 190.68 liters CAA Civil Aviation Authority CEE Central and Eastern Europe CIM International Consignment Note for rail transport under COTIF CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COTIF Convention Concerning the International Transport of Goods by Rail, 1980 DEM German mark EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EC European Commission ECA Europe and Central Asia, a World Bank region ECHO European Community Humanitarian Office ECMT European Conference for Ministers of Transport (part of OECD) EDI Electronic Data Interchange EEA European Economic Area EIB European Investment Bank EU European Union EUR Euro(s), currency unit of the Euro countries within the EU FDI Foreign Direct Investment FSU Former Soviet Union Republics FTL Full truck load (cf. LTL and FCL for Full container load) FWD Falling Weight Deflector GEL Georgian Lari, 1 USD was approximately 2.23 Lari in April 2002 GDP Gross Domestic Product GFP Global Facilitation Partnership for Transport and Trade by the World Bank GNP Gross National Product HDM.4 Highway Development and Management System (version 4) HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, IMF classification for the poorest countries IATA International Air Transport Association IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; World Bank Group ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IDA International Development Agency, part of the World Bank Group 4 IFI International Financial Institutions IMF International Monetary Fund INOGATE IRI Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe initiative International (Road) Roughness Indicator IRU International Road Transport Union ISO 9001,2002 Quality standards of the International Standardization Organization JAA Joint Aviation Authority JAR Joint Aviation Regulations JSC Joint-stock company LTL Less-than-truckload MOT Ministry of Transport MOTC Ministry of Transport and Communications MWh Megawatt hours NACE International classification system used in sectoral statistics NGO Non-governmental organizations NIS Newly Independent States, typically former Soviet Union republics OECD Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development OSJD Organization for Railways Cooperation, comprises CIS countries SGMS Agreement on International Railway Freight Communications, used in OSJD PAX Passengers PMS Pavement Management Systems PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility of the IMF PSO Public Service Obligation Ro-ro Roll-on – roll-off ship SDRG Georgian State Department of Roads SOE State-owned enterprise SME Small and medium-sized enterprises TACIS EU’s development program for CIS countries TEU Twenty feet equivalent unit, a measurement for unitized cargo TRACECA EU-funded Inter-Governmental Group TRAnsport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia UIC International Organization of Railways UNCTAD United Nations Conference for Trade and Development UN-ECE United Nations / Economic Commission for Europe UN-ESCAP United Nations / Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific UNDP United Nations Development Program USD American dollar WTO World Trade Organization WWW World Wide Web XML Extensible Mark-up Language; used for making www-sites 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The report also draws on a multitude of available reports on the three South-Caucasus States shown in the list of references. The study also relies heavily on official sources of information and statistics as well as interviews and meetings with Government ministries and officials. The report is also relying on findings of several World Bank missions and projects, which have visited the three South-Caucasus States in numerous occasions between the years 2000 and 2002. This includes the work of Mr. Antti Talvitie (Task Team Leader), and that of Mr. Gerald Ollivier (Trade and Transport Facilitation), Mr. Wojciech Paczynski, (Short-term consultant), and Mr. Martin Humphreys (Short Term Consultant). Other contributors to the report include Ms. Eva Molnar (Transport Sector Manager) and Mr. Gevorg Sargsyan (Local Task Manager). The joint transport sector seminar by ECMT and The World Bank on April 18-19, 2002 in Tbilisi provided valuable input to the report. Seminar participants comprised senior-level delegations from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia joined by authoritative representation from the following international organizations (in alphabetical order): EBRD, ECMT, EU COMMISSION, IRU, TRACECA IGC, TACIS/TRACECA, UIC, UN/ECE and The World Bank. Prior to the seminar, a questionnaire outlining in some detail what has been done in each mode in each country was sent out by ECMT. The material obtained through it was also used when compiling this report. A special thanks goes to Mr. Jack Short, Secretary General of ECMT for supervising the questionnaire procedure and for Ms. Elene Shatberashvili of the practical arrangements and translation of the questionnaire and reply. 6 A. Abstract The report is based on public sources on the transport sector in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, reports of World Bank missions and material obtained from the South-Caucasus States Seminar on Restructuring of the Transport Sector, held on April 18-19, 2002 in Tbilisi. Some of the main problems affecting the transport sector in the Region include: a severe shortage of funds, to maintain and improve infrastructure as well as a lack of long term budget planning a lack of confidence by shippers in using routes through the region, partly caused by the unresolved political and border disputes in the region difficulties in defining a coherent national and international transport infrastructure network a weak legal framework for transport and trade the lack of management skills across the transport sector Significant progress has been made to clarify the roles of government and private sector, and there are several examples of effective private sector participation in transport operations. Bureaucratic border crossing and customs procedures are a major cause of delays and expense (both formal and informal). In the Road sector, the most significant problems are the backlog in maintenance; very low budget financing combined with low direct user charges, and poor traffic safety record. In the freight dominated Railways sector, the most significant problems are the old age and poor condition of track and rolling stock, absence of modern information systems, and lack of management skills. Bottlenecks are often created in ports through customs and other bureaucratic processes. The key problem in Urban public transport is lack of financial resources, coupled with increasing car ownership and problems related to air pollution especially major cities. The region’s industrial sectors with most growth potential rely heavily on affordable and reliable transport. For Armenia, these include mining and construction. For Azerbaijan the main sector is oil and gas. For all three, agriculture and food processing have large export potential. There is also a viable potential to revive the tourism industry in certain parts of the region. Radically improved transport infrastructure and logistics services, and, for tourism, upgraded facilities and transport and hospitality services are needed to activate this potential. Improved co-ordination of international bodies (ECMT, UN ECE, EC, UIC, WB, EBRD, and others), is needed to maximizing synergy and minimizing overlapping activities in the region. The three South-Caucasus States have made progress both in terms of transport infrastructure improvement and creation of markets and private sector participation in provision of transport services. Substantial investment is still needed in the three states to improve the road and rail infrastructure in particular. Considerable work remains to be done to strengthen the institutional capability and processes on all levels of public administration. The governance of transport sector is underdeveloped, but there are signs for improvement. The creation of a Ministry of Transport in Azerbaijan and Armenia’s membership in ECMT could be singled out as important next steps. Finally, transport sector development, together with trade facilitation are effective means to achieve sustainable economic growth in the region to alleviate the pervasive poverty in the three countries. 7 B. Introduction The main objective of this review is to define the Bank's support to the Governments of the South Caucasus countries on policy and institutional reforms in transport. To the extent it has been possible to gather material for this purpose, the review will include an up-date on the progress of reforms in the transport sector with regard to policy, regulatory, institutional and organizational changes in sector management, the level of competition, privatization of transport service provisions, the efficiency improvements or existing shortcomings of the public entities and SOEs; a review of the policy and regulatory functions with regard to the transport sector: MOT; other ministries and government agencies and transport companies; the review of the organization and the structure of MOT, its relations with transport infrastructure managers and operators, like ports, airports, railways, roads; an analysis of the road sector, with special attention to (i) national road expenditure needs; (ii) the existing road financing schemes (source of road funding, the existence, structure and level of road user charges, the fund allocation mechanisms overall and to the different level of the road network: national, urban, rural roads); (iii) road management: role and organization of the State Road Administration; (iv) construction industry and needs for reform and (vi) road safety management; the relationship between the national and regional and local (rural and urban) transport network and services; NGOs and business interest groups active in transport; the issue of sustainable development with regard to social sustainability in terms of poverty reduction through improvements in transport infrastructure, and with regard to environmental sustainability in terms of transport sector emissions The focus of the report will be mainly on transport and only to a lesser extent on trade and transport facilitation. In the beginning, a short review of the socio-economic and trade profiles of the three South Caucasus states is given in order to discuss the potential of transport sector development in poverty alleviation. The main industrial sectors that are dependent on improved transport infrastructure and transport and logistics services are also identified. 8 C. The South-Caucasus States’ socio-economic profiles This section gives a brief introduction to the socio-economic profiles of the three South-Caucasus States. Extensive reports on this can also be found elsewhere, and as this report aims at presenting the key, and general country profiles are kept to a minimum1. The aim of the treatment is to identify the sectors where transport potential is largest or which are most dependent on well-functioning transport infrastructure and services. The impact of improved transport and trade operations is crucial in poverty reduction, which is an area of high importance in the region. Main economic indicators for each country are included in the attached “Country at a glance” tables in Attachments C.1. through C.3. This chapter draws extensively on official statistics and government sources. It should be noted that the accuracy of the available statistics for example on economic factors is often less than satisfactory. This reflects the widespread so-called shadow economy2 in these countries. According to Schneider and Enste (2002), among the states of the former Soviet Union in 1998–99, Georgia's shadow economy was the largest, at 64 percent of GDP; that of Russia was 44 percent of GDP; and that of Uzbekistan was the smallest, at 9 percent. In OECD countries, the shadow economy typically represents 14-16 per cent of GDP. Table C.1. Gross Domestic Product and Inflation in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 1990-2001 Source: Poverty reduction…(2002), IMF and The World Bank; based on World Bank staff estimates Nominal GDP per capita in USD PPP GDP per capita in USD Real GDP Index 1989 = 100 Armenia 505 2,713 51 Azerbaijan 652 2,602 52 Georgia 567 4,285 32 In U.S. Dollar terms, the three countries are among the poorest in the world, and all are eligible for IDA loans, as well as for the PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility of the IMF. Georgia obtained the new IMF PRGF in January 2001. Armenia 1 See e.g. World Bank, IMF and EBRD reports indicated in the list of references Shadow Economy includes not only illegal activities but also unreported income from the production of legal goods and services, either from monetary or barter transactions. Hence, the shadow economy comprises all economic activities that would generally be taxable were they reported to the tax authorities (Schneider and Enste 2002). 2 9 and Georgia can also be classified as heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC). Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached barely half of the real GDP level of 1989, where Georgia has reached a mere third of that level. Some key indicators of the three countries’ economic development are summarized in Tables C.1. and C.2. Table C.2. Gross Domestic Product and inflation in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, 1990-2001 Source: Poverty reduction…(2002), IMF and The World Bank; based on World Bank staff estimates Gross Domestic Product Inflation 1990-95 average in per cent 1996-2000 average in per cent 2001 forecast in per cent 1990-95 average in per cent 1996-2000 average 2001 forecast Armenia -11.5 5.2 7.5 1,685.4 8.3 3.4 Azerbaijan -14.9 7.1 8.5 705.2 3.2 2.5 Georgia -19.7 5.8 3.9 3,310.6 14.6 4.8 A major problem facing all three South Caucasus states - as well as the rest of lowincome CIS states - is the significant increase of poverty. A sizeable proportion of the population now lives in absolute poverty, and available physical indicators – such as malnutrition – have steadily worsened, and the social safety net has deteriorated greatly, mainly because of the limited resources to poverty reduction (Table C.3.). In addition, income inequality has increased sharply in these countries. Table C.3. Income-based poverty indicators, per cent of population, and estimated income-based Gini coefficients. Source: Poverty reduction…(2002), IMF and The World Bank; based on World Bank staff estimates Below the national poverty line*) 1988 1999 Below USD 2.15 per capita per day 1999 Income distribution Gini coefficient 1988 (est.) Gini coefficient 1996-99 (est.) Armenia 18 55 44 0.25 0.59 Azerbaijan 33 62 24 0.29 0.43**) Georgia 16 60 19 0.28 0.43 *) The national poverty line is defined as percentage of population earning a per capita income lower than the minimum consumption basket. For 1988, a per capita income of 75 rubles per month was used as the conventional poverty line. **) The 1996-99 data for Azerbaijan is consumption based 10 While definitive information is not available, national poverty lines suggest that more than half of the population lived in poverty in 1999. Social infrastructure, access to health care and the quality of education are especially poor in villages and small towns. The data on employment and wages is shown in Table C.4. While the official data shows a fairly high level of employment, the actual earnings remain low. Even the official data for average wages is very low. The data provided for average wages in the transport sector is 1.3 to 1.6 times higher than the national average of all sectors. Given the size and population of the countries, the official number of people employed in the transport sector is fairly small, from about 2.1 (Armenia) to about 3.7 per cent (Georgia) of total employment. Table C.4. Population, employment and average wages in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia in 2000 Source: IMF 2001c and d, IMF 2002b Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Population, millions 3.2 8.0 5.1 Persons employed *), millions 1.3 3.7 1.8 Persons officially unemployed 153,900 48,000 116,900 47,500 N/A **) 36,700 Average wages, all sectors in USD/month #) 38.9 48.0 39.2 Average wages, transport sector USD/month #) 61.5 63.6 64.6 Employed in the transport sector *) Armenia: preliminary data for 2000; Azerbaijan data for end-September 2001. **) The transport and communications sector contributed 14.4 per cent of GDP in 2000, market prices. #) Source data for Armenia in USD, Azerbaijan data converted 1 USD = 4,600 AZM, and Georgian data converted 1 USD = 2.0 GEL. Financially and socially sustainable economic growth is imperative for these countries to alleviate the serious problem of poverty. Economic growth, in turn, is directly linked to the preconditions for trade in these countries. Access to affordable and safe transport, both for passengers and goods, is a central prerequisite for economic growth to materialize. However, among the main impediments to economic growth in the Caucasus region – as in Central Asia - are the high transportation costs and the lack of security for trade flows. The linkage between better transportation and poverty reduction in this region has been studied in more detail e.g. in the forthcoming Armenia Trade Diagnostic Study prepared by World Bank (2002). The simulation modeling in the report indicate that a 25 % reduction in transport costs results on average to 0.95 percent increase of welfare in rural areas, and a 0.1 percent increase in urban areas. The biggest 11 beneficiaries tend to be the households in the lowest income deciles and the ones in the upper deciles. The report also concludes that the industries with the highest potential for poverty alleviation in Armenia include Construction, Mining, Agriculture and Food, Jewelry and Information Technology. Except for Construction and Mining, the three latter industries also have a high export potential. Economic activity in this region remains severely affected by civil and ethnic conflicts that have lingered since independence. The border between Azerbaijan and Armenia remains closed, as does Armenia’s border with Turkey, leaving Armenia only two corridors, through Iran and Georgia. In Georgia, the conflict between the central government and its constituent republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has led to disruptions in domestic and international trade flows and movement of people. Also the war in Chechnya has made regional trade more difficult and expensive for all parties. These conflicts are politically sensitive and involve a number of countries in the region, but they have severely undermined prospects for trade and private investment in the region. The unresolved security issues impose a heavy cost on the three South Caucasus states in terms of forgone or diverted trade. For example, Armenia has ample power generation capacity, and could export electricity to Turkey, if trade relations were normalized. Significant differences in agricultural prices between the three South Caucasian states suggest considerable potential for regional trade. According to a recent World Bank study (Polyakov 2001), Armenia could double its exports and halve its trade deficit, and Azerbaijan could increase its exports by about 11 per cent, if the economic blockade were to be lifted. Georgia could face some reduction in transit fees in the short term, but would eventually gain from increased cooperation and stability in the region. C.1. Armenia3 Armenia is a landlocked country bordering Georgia, Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Border with Azerbaijan is closed following the conflict on Nagorno Karabakh region. For the same reason combined with Armenia’s claims on the genocide (1915-1922) border with Turkey is also virtually closed. Russia remains Armenia’s strongest political ally in the region. (Figure C.1.) GDP growth between 1994 and 2001 has been between 4 to 6 percent. Because of the dramatic downturn of economic activity especially during 1990-1992, the real GDP in 2001 is still less than 60 per cent of the level in 1989. The change of consumer prices has been less than 5 per cent during 1999-2001. The country suffered from hyperinflation during 1992-1994, with the annual inflation rate reaching almost 5,000 per cent in 1994. (Poverty reduction 2002) 3 The section is in part based on EBRD 2001b and The World Bank/IMF report on Poverty reduction (2002), ECSPE (2002) and UN (2001), Armenia: Staff Report (2001) as well as notes by Wojciech Paczynski, CASE Foundation, March 2002, drawing on data from e.g. EIU (2002) and CES (2001) 12 Armenia’s trading system has been liberal and stable for the last few years. Under the IMF's trade restrictiveness classification scheme, Armenia's trade regime is rated "1", the most liberal category. Armenia applied for membership in the WTO in 1993, and is expected to eventually finish the accession negotiations in the second half of 2002. However, certain unresolved issues remain e.g. with agricultural products and markets for telecommunication services. Figure C.1. A schematic illustration of Armenia’s and its main transport routes Source: EBRD 2001b Armenia specializes in high-tech industries such as diamond cutting, electronic production and software development. The mining and metallurgy sectors are also important and have been undergoing restructuring. The chemicals sector offers potential, with a strong pharmaceuticals sector. The infrastructure sectors are in need of investment and will gain a boost with the forthcoming privatization of energy distribution companies. The main sectors of the economy are described below. Jewelry and diamond processing In 2000, precious or semiprecious stones and precious metals accounted for about 40 per cent of all Armenian exports. A large proportion of these exports is polished 13 diamonds. Diamond cutting is one of Armenia’s most successful sectors, with total production worth USD 110 million in 2000. Electronics and Information Technology In the Soviet era Armenia specialized in high-tech defense industries, and has a wealth of highly trained engineers and well equipped plants. The larger electronics factories are being privatized through international tender. There exists a base for the assembly of electronic and consumer goods, for subsequent export to third countries. The low start-up costs and availability of highly skilled but inexpensive labor make the IT industry a strong prospect for investors and for the country’s future economic growth. Contemporary production in this field is truly global, and it is often organized through specific contract manufacturing arrangements and outsourcing of routine manufacturing, which rely heavily on advanced logistics solutions. Electronics manufacturing is capital intensive due to high level of automation. This translates to high capital costs relative to labor costs. Consequently, the optimal location is not determined by the lowest labor costs. Instead, predictable deliveries and logistics costs of inbound components and outbound products are crucial. Poor logistics quickly eradicate the competitive advantage a region may have in its availability of skilled labor at relatively low cost. The potential of Armenia in this field is very difficult to materialize without a well-functioning logistics environment. Natural resources Armenia is rich in copper, molybdenum, gold, silver, lead and zinc. There are also substantial deposits of iron, marble, porous stones and salt. Work is under way to revive the mining and metallurgy sectors. Substantial investment is needed to bring the industry up to its potential capacity. Chemicals and pharmaceuticals Armenia has a well developed and growing chemical industry. The main products are plastics, chemical fibers, caustic soda, paints, coatings, rubber and latex. There are a number of successful companies producing pharmaceuticals and vitamins, an area that has attracted foreign investment. There is a well-established countrywide distribution network for pharmaceuticals, almost entirely in private hands. Agriculture and agribusiness Agriculture is the largest employer in the country and accounts for about one quarter of GDP. However, only 17 per cent of Armenian land are arable, and the sector does not contribute significantly to exports. The agricultural sector suffers from a lack of investment and a lack of availability of long-term credits. The country produces grain crops, vegetables and a variety of superior quality fruits, tobacco, cotton, grains, essential oils, rose, peppermint and tea. In the Soviet era, 14 fruits and grapes provided 25-30 per cent of budgetary revenues, but in the early transition years they were partly replaced with cereal crops. In 2000 the entire region was hit by a severe drought, leading to a substantial drop in agricultural output and an estimated loss of income of USD 40 million, which had a negative effect on GDP. The development of the agricultural sector is constrained by land fragmentation, the lack of adequate distribution and transport infrastructure, inadequate irrigation and an as yet underdeveloped food processing industry. Food processing With modern processing and packaging technologies, Armenia’s fruit and vegetable products will have the potential to enter international markets. Joint ventures produce tomato paste, fruit juice, and packaging for domestic and export markets. New packaging technologies and capital for long term investment are needed to unlock the sector’s potential. Energy Armenia’s installed generation capacity in year 2001 was 3,200 megawatt hours (MWh), of which 1,750 MWh is thermal, 1,000 MWh is hydropower, and the rest (450 MW) is from the Medzamor nuclear power station, which is to be decommissioned by 2004. About one third of total capacity is currently in operation. The country has been a pioneer in the Caucasus region for energy sector reform, which is now well advanced. The new Energy Law was adopted by parliament in March 2001. It defines the main concepts of the electricity market and responsibilities for its development and the principles of state policy in the sector. Telecommunications Average telephone density is about 17.7 per 100 persons. International connections to other FSU republics are by landline or microwave and to other countries by satellite and by leased connection via the Moscow international gateway switch. Private TV broadcasting stations, cable networks and Internet providers are increasing in number. In 1997, a 90 per cent share of ArmenTel, the state telecommunications company, was sold to OTE of Greece for USD 142 million. The government retains 10 per cent. However, the company has faced difficulties ever since. The 15-year monopoly in international telecommunications services enjoyed by ArmenTel has also affected Armenia’s negotiations to join the WTO. ArmenTel is the main provider of Armenia’s long distance, cellular and paging services, and has engaged in an ambitious project to modernize the country’s entire telecom network. This involves extensive installation of fiber optic cable, digital telephone switches and cellular and paging services. Work to digitalise 70 per cent of the telephone network is proceeding. 15 The discussion above can be summarized as follows. Based on the analysis in World Bank (2002) the industries that hold the most potential for export and job creation are as follows. Their reliance on transport sector developments is briefly commented too. Jewelry/Diamond Processing – This is an industry with considerable foreign investment. There is great potential for Armenia to exploit its comparative advantage of highly skilled, low paid labor as well as the country’s natural semiprecious stone resources. If this industry can be successful, its has large potential for poverty reduction. It can also reduce Armenia’s trade deficit through its exports. The transport impact of this industry is, however, small. Information Technology – Armenia has a relatively large base of software programmers that are low paid relative to their Western counterparts. The need for physical transport is limited, but the sector relies heavily on well-functioning telecommunications networks and related infrastructure and services. Electronics industry - The availability of highly skilled but inexpensive labor and the existence of a strong electronics industry base gives Armenia a potential in this sector. However, poor logistics quickly eradicate these competitive advantages. The potential of Armenia in this field is very difficult to materialize without a well-functioning logistics environment. Agriculture/Food Processing – Armenia has a history of high-quality agriculture production as well as agricultural products that are produced with little or no pesticides or fertilizers. Therefore, Armenia has an opportunity to expand into the profitable organic food products markets that is gaining momentum in the West. This requires reliable and affordable transport services including access to climatized or refrigerated equipment. Therefore, improved transportation both domestically and internationally are fundamental to this industry sector. These industries rated highly on both their potential to expand exports as well as create jobs. Therefore, these are the industries around which planning should be completed to make the industry environment as favorable as possible. Other industries that could be considered after these industries for strategic investments include: Energy – This industry rated relatively high export potential but low job potential. Therefore, the industry should be examined to see whether it is possible to increase its job potential. The transport impact of the sector is large in terms of needed equipment in both pipeline and surface transport equipment and services. Mining – This industry rated relatively high for job potential and in the middle of the scale for export potential. Therefore, the industry should be researched to determine ways of boosting its export potential. The transport impact of mining is large since it typically involves movement of large quantities of goods mainly by rail, and possibly for a subsequent maritime transport to near-by ports. 16 C.2. Azerbaijan4 Azerbaijan is a landlocked country bordering Russia, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey (Nakhichevan enclave) and Iran. (Figure C.2.) Real GDP growth between 1996 and 2000 has been 7.1 percent. Because of the dramatic downturn of economic activity especially during 1990-1995, the real GDP in 2000 was 52 per cent of the level in 1989. The change of consumer prices has been on average 3.2 per cent during 1996-2000, and was forecast at 2.5 per cent for 2001. The country suffered from very high inflation during 1992-1995, with the average annual inflation rate reaching 705 per cent for that period (Tables C.1. and C.2.). Relations to Georgia have remained good, but the border with Armenia is closed following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between the two countries. Relations with Russia have been affected by its support rendered to Armenia, which has complicated cooperation between Azerbaijan and Russia in the transport sector too. Figure C.2. A schematic illustration of Azerbaijan and its main transport routes Source: EBRD 2001c 4 Based on EBRD 2001c, IMF 2002b, US (2001)and notes by Wojciech Paczynski, CASE Foundation, March 2002. 17 Azerbaijan has an approximately 800 km long coastal line on the Caspian Sea. The rights to the Caspian Sea remain hotly disputed between the countries surrounding the Sea. In particular Azeri-Iranian relations have been tense, and relations with Turkmenistan are strained partly due to preparations of an oil pipeline involving the two countries. The very important problem affecting the state performance in general and trade and investment related issues in particular are administrative and organizational weakness of the state. AmCham (2001) lists it among the major issues creating difficulties for investors. Coordination and even communication between different government agencies and within bigger agencies is absent. Moreover, there is some times rivalry between various institutions. Strategic thinking at the state level is missing. Also, donors actions seem to be often ill targeted. They sometimes concentrate on specific solutions disregarding the existing limitations to their functioning in the local environment. The bankruptcy law passed as a result of the IMF push exemplifies this. According to AmCham (2001), the law is difficult to understand, and there has been no single bankruptcy since the introduction of the law. The main sectors of the economy are described below. Oil and gas Azerbaijan is on the way to becoming a major oil and gas producer. In year 2000, oil and gas extraction accounted for 24 per cent of the official GDP at market prices, and processing of oil and gas contributed a further 1.5 per cent to the GDP (IMF 2002). The year 2000 saw record oil and gas condensate production of about 14.5 million tons, a 5 per cent increase over 1999. Natural gas production in 2000 was 6.0 billion cubic meters. According to SOCAR, the state-owned oil company, oil production in Azerbaijan could increase to 50 million tons per year and gas production to 25 billion cubic meters per year by 2008. Restructuring of the state-owned oil company SOCAR would be important for further development and opening up of this sector. Although there are plans to privatize a number of non-core assets of SOCAR during the second privatization program and to sell minority interests in SOCAR’s refineries to private investors there are no plans to privatize or break up SOCAR at this point in time. A national oil fund has been established and substantial amounts of revenues from the oil and gas sector have already been accumulated in the oil fund. Development of the oil industry is closely connected with available capacity of the pipelines, terminals, vehicles, vessels and other transport equipment. If the anticipated increases of oil and gas volumes materialize, they will have a major impact on future transport infrastructure needs not only in Azerbaijan but also in the Region as a whole. 18 Agriculture Agriculture is Azerbaijan’s second largest sector after oil and gas. The sector has been growing since the partial reform in 1997, and it accounts for 22 per cent of GDP and employs more than 35 per cent of the total work force. Favorable climate and fertile territory contribute to a rich variety of products, including cotton, grain, tobacco, tea, nuts, fruits and vegetables. Most farming activity has traditionally been concentrated in the fertile lowlands of central Azerbaijan. Between January and August 2000, Azerbaijan harvested 1.5 million tons of grain, of which 1.2 million tons was wheat, a 43 per cent increase over 1999. Cotton is one of the most important cash crops, but output in 2000 was less than 100,000 tons. Almost all the cotton processing, spinning and weaving are now in private hands, and various foreign investors are operating in the sector. Azerbaijan has strong export potential in food and food products to other CIS countries and to Western Europe. However, it needs machinery for food processing. Telecommunications The telecommunications sector is affected by Azerbaijan’s underdeveloped infrastructure and a poor regulatory framework. A law on telecommunications passed in 1997 falls short of providing the necessary policy guidelines for successful privatization of the sector. The Ministry of Telecommunications does not only regulate the sector but also dominates the sector’s commercial activities as the main shareholder in most telecommunication enterprises. The sector contributed about 2.9 per cent of GDP in 1999. Insufficient capacity, low call completion rates and absence of modern equipment and services impede the industry. The fixed line telecommunications infrastructure needs urgent modernization. Current fixed line penetration corresponds to only 20 per cent of the population. Progress has been made in the installation and use of cellular mobile phones. Demand for mobile communications has arisen due to the poor state of fixed lines, and the needs of oil-related economic activities. The current principal providers are Azercell and Bakcell. Azercell is a joint venture between the state-owned Azertelecom and Turkcell of Turkey. Bakcell is a joint venture between Azertelecom and Motorola. Power The power sector in Azerbaijan is controlled by the state-owned company Azerenerji and has yet to be fully unbundled into separate units for generation, transmission and distribution. Total power generating capacity is 23,000 MW produced by nine thermal and five hydroelectric power stations. Imports from Russia and Georgia, whose power grids are still connected with Azerbaijan as part of the Soviet era network, make up the shortfall. The transmission and distribution network consists of more than 110,000 kilometers of transmission lines connecting 40 sub-networks from the central grid system. 19 The power sector in Azerbaijan is in urgent need of structural reforms and modernization, with about 30 per cent of the power generation equipment in need of immediate replacement. Shortages and rationing are common, with electricity blackouts during peak consumption outside the capital. Various IFIs have been involved in modernizing the power sector. C.3. Georgia5 Georgia’s geographical position makes it an important transport link between the Black and Caspian Seas and between Russia and Turkey. The country’s east-west transport links follow the route of the ancient “Silk Road” and include roads, railways, pipeline infrastructure and shipping routes. (Figure C.3.) Figure C.3. A schematic illustration of Georgia and its main transport routes Source: EBRD 2001d 5 Based on EBRD 2001d, E&Y 2001, EIU 2001, EU Country Strategy 2001, IMF 2001a and b, and notes by Wojciech Paczynski, CASE Foundation, March 2002; see also: http://www.bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/country/georgia.cfm; and the 20 Real GDP growth between 1996 and 2000 has been 5.8 per cent. Because of the dramatic downturn of economic activity especially during 1990-1994, the real GDP in 2000 was merely 32 per cent of the level in 1989. The change of consumer prices has been fairly high, on average 14.6 per cent during 1996-2000, but was forecast at 4.8 per cent for 2001. During the 1992-95 hyperinflation the average annual inflation rate exceeded 3,310 per cent (Tables C.1. and C.2.). The most promising opportunities for developing Georgia’s economy continue to be in natural resources and agribusiness. The country’s role as an important oil and gas transit center is rapidly increasing, while several foreign companies are already successfully exploiting Georgia’s own oil and gas reserves. Privatization is planned in the energy and telecommunications sectors, and potential exists for the development of Georgia’s tourist industry. Main sectors are described in short below. Oil and gas Georgia’s proven oil reserves are around 5 million tons, while total estimated inland and offshore oil reserves are 580 million tons. Operations under production sharing agreements (PSAs) and joint ventures are under way in the Kura Basin to the east of Tbilisi, and also in the Black Sea region to the west. The Georgian state oil and gas company Saknavtobi, in association with foreign oil companies operating in the country, plans to produce over 4 million tons of oil and up to 2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas over 2001-05. This would have a direct impact on oil pipeline transports as well as port and maritime activities. There is an oil refinery at Sartichala, 25 kilometers from Tbilisi, producing fuel oil, diesel and low octane gasoline. An agreement was reached in 2000 to increase processing at the refinery from 100,000 to 400,000 tons of oil per year. Georgia’s strategic regional location for the transit of oil and gas from the Caspian Sea has made it of vital importance to world energy markets. The EU-sponsored TRACECA and INOGATE (Interstate Oil and Gas Transport to Europe) programs have invested in Georgia’s oil and gas pipeline infrastructure. The Georgian International Oil Corporation (GIOC), which is responsible for all pipelines running through Georgia, is constructing a petrochemical complex at the port of Supsa. The total cost of the project is estimated at USD 1 billion. The complex will initially have an annual crude oil capacity of 3 million tons, to be increased to 7 million tons. The main products will be diesel fuel, fuel oil and highoctane gasoline. Georgia has proven gas reserves close to 8.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) and estimated reserves of 125 bcm. With energy debts to Turkmenistan (USD 400 million) and Russia (USD 100 million), Georgia is interested in developing its own resources in order to achieve greater energy independence. The Georgia International Gas Corporation (GIGC) has held negotiations with various international bodies on projects to develop Georgia’s gas sector. 21 Energy Georgia has the capacity to produce 100-160 million MWh of hydroelectric power per year, but it is presently only generating around 10 per cent of its potential. Hydropower accounts for around 78 per cent of electricity generation. Thermal power generation is also a very important source of electricity, particularly in the winter months when hydropower generation declines. During the winter of 2000-01 Georgia suffered an energy crisis, leading to public protest in a number of regions over restricted power usage. The World Bank identified corruption, particularly the problem of vested interests interfering in energy sector reform, as the main reason at the root of the energy crisis. It called for enforcement of tough penalties for non-payers, including large industrial companies, and for a strong commitment to the speedy implementation of privatization plans. Telecommunications Telecommunications is one of the fastest growing sectors of the Georgian economy. Between 1997 and 2001, USD 170 million, mostly from foreign sources, has been invested into this sector. Service provided to customers is fairly advanced. Today Georgia has a relatively high level of telephone density with 25 fixed lines per 100 people in urban areas and 10 lines per 100 people in rural areas. Poor line quality and frequent line disconnection have promoted the development of four major cellular telephone systems, which provide better service, but at a much higher cost. By the end of 2000 there were 76,500 mobile phone users in Georgia, representing 12 per cent of the population. Mining Georgia has one of the richest manganese deposits in the world, estimated at 200 million tons and located about 130 kilometers northwest of Tbilisi. The estimated copper reserves are 400,000 tons, mainly found in the Madneuli deposit. A Swiss investor is redeveloping this copper mining complex, which is one of the largest copper traders in the world. Total gold reserves are estimated at almost 55 tons. The only gold mine in operation is the country’s largest exporter, which is run as a 50:50 joint venture between an Australian firm and a Georgian partner. Agribusiness Georgia’s agricultural sector traditionally accounts for almost a third of GDP and half of employment. Agricultural production in Georgia has recovered significantly from its decline following independence when there was a move away from traditional to cereal crops. Several multilateral and bilateral agencies are involved in projects to assist agricultural development in Georgia. For example, The World Bank is providing credits for up to USD 30 million for new technology, training and irrigation. Citrus and deciduous fruits are cultivated in western Georgia. Investment is needed to help develop cultivation to pre-independence volumes for export. Nuts accounted for 7.5 per cent of exports in the first half of 2000. 22 In the Soviet era, Georgia supplied almost 95 per cent of all the tea produced in the USSR. Georgia harvested around 20,000 tons of sorted leaves in 2000, only enough for 5,000 tons of processed tea and three times less than in 1999. The tea industry is being revived through joint ventures. The previously strong wine industry declined in the early years of transition, and the industry is now being revived with plenty of potential for development. Georgia’s natural and medicinal water springs are estimated to yield approximately 130 million liters of mineral water per day. These have potential for export especially in the NIS countries. Tourism During Soviet times, Georgia was a popular tourist destination, attracting 4 million visitors each year to its health resorts and beaches. Apart from numerous cultural attractions, the beaches on Black Sea coast and its many health resorts also have enormous tourist potential, but some of them are not readily accessible at present, given that they. Skiing has also great potential. Georgia lacks hotel accommodation outside Tbilisi and road infrastructure is poor. Georgia received around 390,000 foreigners in 2000, which contributed about USD 413.4 million to the state budget. The government hopes to increase the number of tourists to 1 million by 2005 and is seeking foreign investment in the sector. Improvement in both transport infrastructure and services are vital for these plans to materialize. C.4. Conclusion The region’s industrial sectors with most growth potential rely heavily on affordable and reliable transport. For Armenia, these include mining and construction. For Azerbaijan the main sector is oil and gas. For all three, agriculture and food processing have large export potential. There is also a viable potential to revive the tourism industry in certain parts of the region. These regions include the Black Sea Coast of Georgia, major cities such as Tbilisi, Yerevan and Baku, and a number of health spas and mountain resorts. Radically improved transport infrastructure and logistics services are fundamental for industrial sectors’ revival. For the tourism industry, upgraded facilities and transport and hospitality services are needed to activate its potential. The reduction of domestic transport costs both for goods and passengers would have a positive impact on welfare, especially on lowest income groups. The improved competitiveness of the region’s industries would have a direct impact on employment, wage levels, which in turn would directly alleviate poverty. 23 D. Trade and Foreign Investment Highlights This chapter presents comparative data on the merchandise trade of the SouthCaucasus States. Merchandise trade is shown both in monetary and volume terms, and the major trading partners at the end of the 1990s are identified. Foreign trade data for 2000 indicate the structure and orientation of trade. The availability of statistical data on trade and transport and its accuracy constitute a problem. Hence, the data presented should be interpreted with caution. D.1. Merchandise trade Each of the three South-Caucasus States has shown substantially higher figures for merchandise import than export. Throughout the 1990s, the trade balance has been substantially negative in all three states. Only Azerbaijan showed a positive trade balance in 2000 (Table D.1.). Table D.1. Merchandise Foreign Trade of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in 2000 in millions of USD. Source: The World Bank, IMF, and national statistical offices Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Merchandise exports 300 1,877 645 Merchandise imports 760 1,539 1,006 -460 338 -361 Trade Balance A breakdown of trade relations with the most important trading partners clearly illustrates differences in trade orientation of the three countries in 2000 (Table D.2.). As a result, the current account balance (CAB) of Armenia in year 2000 was –14.6 per cent of GDP (IMF 2001c) For Azerbaijan, CAB for 1999 was –13.1, but the preliminary data for the first nine months in 2002 was –2.2 per cent of GDP (IMF 2002b). For Georgia, the CAB data for 1999 and 2000 was –8.3 per cent and –4.3 per cent, respectively (World Bank, Country at a Glance). Based on trade flows measured in tons, Armenia is closely linked with Russia, Western Europe, North America and Georgia (in order of magnitude), Azerbaijan trades with Western Europe, Russia, Turkey and Georgia; most Georgian trade is with Turkey, followed by Western Europe, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. 24 Table D.2. Merchandise Trade Directions of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia in 2000 in per cent of total export and import. Source: The World Bank, IMF, and national statistical offices Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Export Import Export EU 35 33 Over 56*) Russia 15 15 6 21 -- -- Armenia Azerbaijan -- -- Georgia 5 2 US 12 11 Iran 9 9 24 Export Import 21 24 21 13 6 11 9 2 4 11 23 16 4 1 Turkey Others Import 30 *) Data for Azerbaijans export and import to EU comprise trade with France and Italy alone; hence, the overall trade with EU is more than this figure. For political reasons, there is no official trade between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia, however, has relatively close trading relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. This notwithstanding, trade between the three South-Caucasus States is relatively limited compared to their total trade with countries outside the region. D.1.1. Armenian Trade performance 1996-20016 Armenian exports are exceptionally small in relation to GDP given the size of the country. In 2000 they accounted for only 16% of GDP. Since 1995 there has been no revival of exports, that fluctuated between 220 and 300 million USD. Imports have risen substantially in 1996 and remained broadly stable afterwards at levels exceeding exports up to three times. As a result Armenia was running exceptionally large trade 6 Note on the quality of existing trade statistics; according to IMF (2002) several components of balance of payment data face significant deficiencies. In particular this refers to goods in informal trade, travel, workers’ remittances and migrants’ transfers. Weak source data constitute a major problem in this sphere. Some improvement was expected following an introduction of new survey forms in May 2001. Among major recommendations the IMF listed developing a unified computerized database for external trade data. 25 and balance of payment deficits that accounted to 31% and 20% of GDP, respectively, in 2000. 2001 brought some improvement in this sphere (Table D.3.). There are only two import duty rates – either 0% or 10%. The simple average tariff is just below 4%7. Transit goods as well as goods temporarily imported into Armenia and exported for the purpose of processing or re-processing are not subject to customs duties. In principle there are no export restrictions and export taxes and there is no system of minimum export prices. Most exports are free of any prohibitions or quotas. The significant share of unrecorded trade create a situation where businesses are treated unequally and those obeying the rules often find themselves in an unfavorable position. In such a situation some voices (including officials at ministerial level) suggest that it might be useful to experiment with the Armenian trade and tax systems, including creating a free trade zone in the whole country. Table D.3. Armenian Trade in goods, 1995-2001 (USD million) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Merchandise exports 271 290 232 221 232 300 240 Merchandise imports 674 757 779 794 697 760 618 -403 -566 -660 -682 -580 -588 -378 -15.7 -13.8 -17.6 -21.2 -16.6 -14.6 -13.5 -31 -25.3 -27.1 -27.1 -21.7 -19.9 17.2%* Trade balance Current account balance in % of GDP Current account balance in % of GDP (exc. official transfers) 2000 2001 (1-3Q) Notes: Imports are presented in f.o.b. terms. Sources differ in treatment of humanitarian imports that amounted to 150 million USD in 1995 and around 50-80 million USD in 1996-2001. 2001 BoP data refer to 1H01 only. Central Bank of Armenia forecast current account deficit (including official transfers) at slightly above 9% for the whole 2001, a major improvement over 2000. Sources: Armenia Economic Trends database IMF (2001). Original source – National Statistical Service. The commodity structure of Armenian exports is concentrated on a few categories of intermediate products, with diamonds constituting the single biggest item (exports of diamonds accounted for 36% of total exports in 1999 and only slightly less in subsequent periods). The recovery of exports in 1999 was led by almost doubling of diamond sales following the sale of a diamond cutting enterprise to a British investor. Exports excluding precious stones and metals amounted to 14% of GDP in 1995 and fell to only around 10% of GDP in 1996-2000. World Bank (2001) notes three categories of exports the coverage of which may lead to an overestimation of Armenian export potential. Apart from diamonds, these include metal scrap (mostly old equipment and other parts from Soviet times) and electricity (swap transactions with Iran). A positive development during 2001 was an increase in exports of prepared foodstuffs. (Table D.4.) 7 According to Paczynski’s calculations based on tariff list available at www.export.am. 26 Table D.4. Composition of Armenia’s Exports and Imports by Commodity Groups, 1997-2001 (% of total) Exports 1997 1998 1999 2000 24 24 43 40 1-3Q 2001 34 25 11 8 14 18 8 14 19 11 7 16 8 15 9 1 10 14 14 13 8 1997 1998 1999 2000 24 18 23 18 22 14 20 15 1-3Q 2001 22 14 5 5 11 13 11 11 10 9 8 11 9 13 9 9 7 Precious and semiprecious stones, precious metals Base metals Prepared foodstuffs Mineral products Machinery and equipment Imports Mineral products Vegetable and animal food products Precious and semiprecious stones, precious metals Machinery and equipment Products of chemical industry Source: Armenia Economic Trends (based on National Statistical Service data). Table D.5. Merchandise Trade Directions of Armenian 1995-2000 in per cent of total export and import. Exports (% of total) EU countries Incl. Belgium CIS Incl. Russia Incl. Georgia Iran US Imports (% of total) EU countries Incl. Belgium CIS Incl. Russia Incl. Georgia Iran US 1995 18 11 63 34 1 13 0 1996 22 15 44 33 2 15 2 1997 28 20 41 27 5 18 3 1998 34 22 35 17 4 14 5 1999 43 34 23 14 4 14 6 2000 1-3Q 2001 35 25 24 14 24 27 15 18 5 5 9 11 12 14 1995 13 2 50 20 9 13 17 1996 15 6 32 15 6 17 12 1997 19 5 33 24 4 10 13 1998 29 6 25 21 3 7 11 1999 30 10 22 18 3 9 10 2000 1-3Q 2001 33 29 9 5 19 24 15 18 2 2 9 9 11 10 Sources: IMF (2001) and Armenia Economic Trends (based on National Statistical Service data). 27 Imports of mineral and food products and precious stones (mainly diamonds sent for processing) retain broadly stable shares since 1999. Despite some fluctuations since 1995, the structure did not change substantially. Imports of agricultural products were mostly declining. Machinery and equipment imports have remained low. (Table D.4.) Since 1995 the share of the EU countries in trade turnover has generally grown while the share of the CIS countries has declined. Iran has remained an important partner. However, this picture is somewhat blurred by the fact that most of trade with the EU is concentrated on Belgium only and consists of diamonds (brought from Belgium for processing and later re-exported). The process of re-orientation of Armenian exports to the more demanding non-CIS markets appears rather slow. (Table D.5.) D.1.2. Azerbaijan trade performance Merchandise exports, after stagnating in 1995-1998 period grew rapidly in 19992001. However, this can be solely attributed to the growth of oil extraction and export volumes coupled with a strong increase of world oil prices. Registered merchandise imports were influenced by substantial imports carried by oil companies operating in Azerbaijan. Imports were growing rapidly till 1998 to ease somewhat in the subsequent period. (Table D.6.) Oil and oil products dominate in Azerbaijan exports. Moreover, their share has been steadily increasing over the studied period, rising from 46% in 1995 to as much as 84% in 2000 and 90% in the first nine months of 2001. Non-oil exports have fluctuated during the period under consideration with 2000-2001 level substantially below 1995 level. Cotton industry that accounted for substantial share of imports as recently as in mid-1990s has virtually collapsed. Table D.6. Azerbaijan Trade in goods 1995-2001, with non-oil exports shown separately (USD million) Merchandise export Merchandise import Non-oil exports 1995 1996 1997 680 789 808 955 1,338 1,375 345 236 329 1998 678 1,724 1999 1,025 1,433 215 228 2000 1H 2001 1,877 980 1,539 651 280 151*) Source: IMF Country report, various issues. *) Three Quarters of 2001 Note: The IMF data are believed to be the best available estimates of total trade flows. Figures based on customs data (used in following tables on commodity and geographic composition) are significantly lower. Exports and imports are presented in f.o.b. terms. The high concentration of the economy on the oil sector is also visible in imports. Machinery and equipment (primarily related to oil and gas sectors) constitute the major item on the imports side. Food is the second largest item. (Table D.7.) 28 Table D.7. Composition of Azerbaijan Exports and Imports by Commodity Groups, 1995-2001 (% of total) Exports Oil and oil products Cotton Imports Machinery and equipment Food Metals 1995 46 18 1995 18 41 6 1996 63 9 1997 58 16 1996 24 40 9 1997 22 23 14 1998 65 8 1998 35 16 12 1999 2000 1-3Q 2001 75 84 90 2 2 1 1999 35 20 11 2000 1-3Q 2001 34 30 19 18 10 10 Note: Figures are based on customs data and differ substantially (are lower) from the BoP data. Source: IMF country reports, various issues. Original source: Azerbaijan State Committee on Statistics. There has been a substantial geographical reorientation of trade over the studied period. The share of CIS countries has been declining steadily and gradually the EU has emerged as the biggest partner. (Table D.8.) Table D.8. Merchandise Trade Directions of Azerbaijan 1995-2000 in per cent of total export and import. Exports (% of total) CIS Incl. Russia Incl. Georgia Non-CIS Incl. Italy Incl. France Incl. Iran Imports (% of total) CIS Incl. Russia Incl. Kazakhstan Non-CIS Incl. Turkey Incl. US 1995 45 22 3 55 N/A N/A 30 1995 34 13 3 66 21 N/A 1996 46 16 7 54 2 0 36 1996 35 16 2 65 22 2 1997 48 23 17 52 4 0 24 1997 44 19 4 56 23 3 1998 38 18 13 62 7 2 7 1998 38 18 4 62 20 4 1999 23 9 8 77 34 6 2 1999 31 22 2 69 14 8 2000 1-3Q 2001 14 11 6 3 4 5 86 89 44 N/A 12 N/A 1 1 2000 1-3Q 2001 32 35 21 11 5 9 68 65 11 12 9 N/A Note: Figures are based on customs data and differ substantially (are lower) from the BoP data. Trade flows with some countries (e.g. imports from Turkey and Iran) are likely significantly underestimated, thus distorting the real picture. Source: IMF country reports, various issues and EIU (2001). Original data: Azerbaijan State Committee on Statistics. On the side of exports, CIS share dropped from 45% in 1995 to 23% in 1999, 14% in 2000 and perhaps even a lower figure in 2001. Among CIS countries Russia, Georgia have been the biggest export markets. In 1999 and 2000, Italy emerged as the biggest export partner (43.7% share) followed by France (11.8% in 2000). 29 On the side of imports, CIS share has remained broadly stable, generally oscillating in the range 31-38%. Compared to other countries, Russia’s share has been increasing (to above 20% in 1999 and 2000). This trend was reversed in 2001. Among non-CIS countries, Turkey lost some of its share in 1999-2001 (drop from above 20% to above 10%). The share of the US has been on the rise – up to 9% in 2000. (Table D.8.) D.1.3. Georgian Trade developments Export performance was generally weak during 1995-1999. In 2000 the situation improved on the back of increased demand from Turkey and Russia. The crisis in Turkey was one of the main factors behind slowdown in exports in 2001. Imports were rising steadily during 1995-1998 to ease in the later period. (Table D.9.) Table D.9. Georgian trade of goods, 1995-2001, USD million 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Merchandise exports 363 417 493 478 477 645 Merchandise imports 700 768 Trade balance -337 -351 -559 -685 -549 -361 Current account balance in % of GDP (including transfers) N/A N/A -10.5 -10.7 -8.5 -5.4 1052 1,164 1,026 1,006 Notes: There have been changes in trade statistics methodology throughout the period and figures may not be fully comparable. Data involve IMF staff estimates and differ significantly with official data (both Statistics Department [customs] and National Bank of Georgia (BoP) believed to be substantially underestimated). No data for 2001 in the above presentation are available. State Department of Statistics data (customs) point at a slight lowering of registered exports and imports in 2001 compared with 2000 with increasing negative trade balance. Sources: IMF, Country reports (various issues). Geographical reorientation of registered trade has been slow in Georgia, and it is mostly visible in exports. The share of CIS countries in total exports decreased from above 60% in 1996-1997 to 40-45% in 1999-2001. At the same time Turkey doubled its share, now at par with Russia (both countries with shares of 21-23% in 20002001). Also, exports to the EU increased visibly; Germany accounted for 10.3 and 10.4 per cent of exports in 1999 and 2000, respectively. (Table D.10) On the side of imports, CIS share has remained broadly stable (30-40%) throughout the studied period, largely due to reliance on energy imports. The share of EU also remained broadly stable; Turkey slightly increased its share, while imports from the US were volatile. 30 Table D.10. Merchandise Trade Directions of Georgia 1995-2000 in per cent of total export and import. Exports (% of total) EU countries CIS Incl. Russia Incl. Azerbaijan Turkey US 1996 8 65 29 12 11 5 1997 N/A 60 30 11 12 6 1998 N/A N/A 29 10 10 6 1999 N/A 45 19 8 16 4 2000 21 41 21 6 23 2 2001 18 45 23 3 22 3 Import (% of total) EU countries CIS Incl. Russia Incl. Azerbaijan Turkey US 1996 24 39 17 10 11 6 1997 N/A 36 13 12 12 7 1998 N/A N/A 15 8 11 9 1999 N/A 46 19 7 12 12 2000 24 32 14 8 16 10 2001 28 37 13 11 15 4 Notes: Original source of data is State Department of Statistics, implying that these are basically customs data. The above figures draw from various sources and there apparently have been some changes to original figures. Consequently, results should be treated with caution. Sources: IMF, Country reports (various issues), Georgian Economic Trends, EIU (2001), and UN (2001). Available data on commodity breakdown of trade flows cover only a portion of total trade. Due to restrictions on trade transactions involving certain product groups, some commodities do not show up in statistics or the volume of trade involving them is significantly underestimated. (Table D.11) Scrap metals and timber are two important export categories. Both were subject to export restriction in the past and are likely to be subject to restrictions in 2002 (in late a December 2001 export of non-ferrous scrap metals was banned till end-2003). As for timber, recorded exports are low and no estimates of real flows are available (the ban on exports was in place during the second half of 2001). Exports of wine and other alcoholic beverage were on the rise throughout most of the analyzed period. Georgian wines are currently destined almost exclusively to CIS markets. The emergence of aircraft as the biggest export category in 2001 (11% share) was a result of misclassification by the State Department of Statistics of a debt transaction with Turkmenistan. On the side of imports, crude oil, gas and products thereof constituting around 20% of registered imports in the last 4 years mirror country’s dependence on foreign energy resources. Imports of machinery and mechanical appliances have been rather low and in 2001 accounted for around 12%. Slow reduction of share of food products’ imports has been observed. 31 Table D.11. Composition of Georgian registered exports and imports by commodity groups, 1995-2001 (% share of total trade) Exports (% of total) Scrap metals Wine and related products Ferro alloys Oil and oil products Tea 1995 0 2 16 6 6 1996 0 6 4 9 8 1997 0 5 6 6 8 1998 1 8 12 3 5 1999 10 6 8 2 5 2000 11 9 4 4 2 2001 10 10 5 5 2 Import (% of total) Oil and oil products (ex-crude) Oil, gas and related products Medicaments Sugar Cigars and cigarettes 1995 29 19 0 7 6 1996 23 13 2 5 4 1997 16 8 4 4 11 1998 15 7 4 2 15 1999 10 10 7 3 6 2000 11 7 5 4 5 2001 13 7 6 4 4 Notes: Original source of all data is State Department of Statistics, implying that these are basically customs data. Significant flows of certain commodities are not recorded (due to official bans on foreign trade transactions, high taxes, etc.) and consequently the above figures should be treated with caution. Source: IMF, Country reports (various issues) and Georgian Economic Trends. D.2. Foreign Direct Investment The level of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) indicates the economic potential that a certain country possesses, but it also reflects the confidence that outside investors – mainly firms – have in a country’s political and social stability. Through growing FDI the firms and industries in the receiving country also usually receive new technological and management know-how which is difficult or impossible to gain in other ways. Furthermore, because FDI tends to accumulate into profitable industries, industries or firms with a high level of FDI tend to be more profitable than firms or industries with less FDI8. The development of the FDI stock in the South-Caucasus States demonstrates vividly the austere business environment and economic potential within these countries. Among issues affecting investment climate is the widespread corruption. As noted by several sources, bribes are commonly used to obtain certain approvals or clearances and this way of doing business has become a widely accepted standard. Potential political instability internally and externally in the region also plays a role in assessment of the investment climate by potential investors. In addition, AmCham (2001) presents a long list of issues hindering the investment climate falling into several broad categories – consistency, clarity and fairness of implementation of the legal framework, objectivity of enforcement, contract laws and security, accounting 8 On this, see e.g. Kalotay and Hunya (2000) 32 standards, lack of coordination between (government) agencies, customs harmonization (regional coordination) and market liberalization. (Table D.12.) When comparing with other countries in the region, Armenia has the lowest level of foreign direct investments over the last decade (Table D.12.). Total cumulative FDI in the period from 1995 to 2000 is USD 590 million. The significant increase of FDI to Armenia in 1998 was mainly due to large-scale privatizations of state-run enterprises such as the telecom operator that was privatized to a Greek firm. FDI to Georgia in 1995-2000 amounts to USD 837 million. Azerbaijan and mainly its oil and gas industry have attracted a total of USD 4,470 million in FDI in 1995-2000. Table D.12. FDI inflows by selected host country, 1995-2000 in USD millions Source: Armenia Trade Diagnostic Study, The World Bank 2002 Country 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Cumul. 1995-2000 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Ireland Poland Czech Republic Hungary Kazakhstan Slovakia Belarus 25 330 5 1,447 3,659 2,562 4,453 964 195 15 18 627 45 2,618 4,498 1,428 2,275 1,137 251 105 52 1,115 243 2,743 4,908 1,300 2,173 1,321 206 352 232 1,023 265 11,035 6,365 3,718 2,036 1,152 631 203 130 510 82 14,929 7,270 6,324 1,994 1,587 356 444 133 883 197 16,320 10,000 4,595 1,957 1,249 2,075 90 590 4,488 837 49,092 36,700 19,927 14,888 7,410 3,714 1,209 As a consequence, the FDI stock has remained extremely low with the petrochemical sector, mainly in the oil rich Azerbaijan, as the only exemption. FDI towards the transport sector has been negligible in all three states. In Armenia, the legal framework for investment is in principle good, but implementation and enforcement of laws remains an issue. It should be noted that given the size of the local market and high transportation costs and other problems in access to other markets, Armenia does not have too many advantages making it the attractive location for FDI. One of the best resources is perhaps Armenia's human capital. The labor force is highly educated and well trained, particularly in engineering and technology. In June 2001, the Government announced the formation of Armenia Foreign Investment Fund (AFIF), reportedly with a USD 30 million funding provided to the Government by the Lincy Foundation, a California based charitable foundation9. AFIF is offering financing in form of working capital or project finance loans and equity investments to eligible foreign businesses that intend to establish or expand operations in Armenia with an emphasis on new job creation (http://www.bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/COUNTRY/010619armfi.htm). 9 The Lincy Foundation has also made substantial donations for the road sector; see section for roads. 33 In Azerbaijan, the oil and gas sector is the main target of FDI. Together with the construction sector it is attracting FDI at a rate of over USD 1 billion per year (Singh 2001). Government bureaucracy, weak legal institutions and predatory behavior by politically connected monopoly interests have severely hindered investment outside of the energy sector (US 2001). Effective means of protecting property and contractual rights are not yet assured and the courts seem weak in enforcing these. In Georgia, the legal framework for foreign investment is generally positively perceived10. WTO entry should theoretically constitute a further boost to the investment climate. However, the major problems related to pervasive corruption and the arbitrary implementation of laws and regulations have inhibited foreign investment in Georgia. (E&Y 2001) Also the potential political instability has an adverse effect on FDI. The political status of the provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is unresolved and there are sporadic outbreaks of violence in Abkhazia. Renewed fighting in the Russian republic of Chechnya has generated concerns that the conflicts will spillover into Georgia. 10 See US Department of State (2001). 34 E. Transport Sector Highlights E.1. Global trends in the transport sector In an international comparison, the value added by transport lies within the range between 3 and 5%, and public investment in transport typically amounts to 2-2.5% of GDP. Demand for transport in developing and transition countries grows faster than GDP (typically 1.5 to 2.0 as much). The main macro level factors defining the transportation trends include (i) the changing trade patterns and globalization, (ii) the evolving role of the private sector, and (iii) sustainability concerns. The main micro level factors include (i) the changing traffic patterns and behavior for passenger transport and mobility, and (ii) the changing logistical patterns and the impact of technological developments. In addition to these, a number of subnational challenges also need to be addressed. Globalization and changing trade patterns mean, inter alia, that the value of trade in manufactured goods increases faster than that of raw materials. During the 1990s, there has also been very strong economic growth in most OECD countries, especially in the US. A further feature of globalization is that trade in services grows rapidly. The evolving roles of the private and public sectors draw attention to the importance of allowing the private sector to operate efficiently, and of finding better ways of implementing good governance. This has led to the identification of separate roles for public authorities and commercial operators, especially in infrastructure management and in transport service provision. One of the measures taken is to “unbundle” the ownership of infrastructure from the operations. This procedure, and the related regulatory issues, needs to be planned carefully, irrespective of whether the service provider is a public or a private entity, or a combination of the two (Figures E.1.). Privatization has been widely used as a vehicle to restructure transport and transport infrastructure markets. Consequently, public-private partnerships (PPPs) have been introduced as a mechanism for providing good quality transport and infrastructure services at a reasonable cost. The World Bank experience of PPPs and transport sector governance include the following: Government support is essential to mitigate the start-up risk for cautious investors/lenders. Private capital works best when leveraged with public funds for highway development. An integrated transport policy approach includes the liberalization of trucking Toll roads are not a substitute for a well-funded and managed public highway program. Private toll roads can exist only because of commercial revenue potential in specific highway corridors. 35 Competition in the market with entry of new firms Competitive activities Competition Competition from substitutes Monopoly facility Competition for the market via concession or lease Monopoly activities Monopoly Integrated state-owned monopoly Integrated monopoly Initial status Industry structure Integrated monopoly Business practices, environment, safety, and antitrust Right of access to monopoly facility and access price Prices, quality, and service obligation, via contract Prices, quality, and service obligation, via statute Options for competition Object of regulation Unbundling No Unbundling Figure E.1. Unbundling of activities and the options for competition and private sector involvement. Source: World Development Report 1994, Infrastructure for Development, and The World Bank Sustainability concerns comprise11, inter alia, (i) social sustainability such as traffic safety issues, and general work conditions, and safety at work; (ii) environmental sustainability, such as minimizing the negative external effects of transport, e.g. accidents, emissions, noise, congestion, land use; and (iii) financial sustainability both within the public and the private sector. Environmental sustainability issues are discussed in more detail in a separate section in this Chapter. The key points of the public sector’s financial sustainability comprise the following: • • • • • reduction of fiscal deficit, enhancement of public savings, fiscal consolidation/restructuring of public finances, achievement of the Maastricht target for government fiscal deficit; reform of the revenue system, strengthening of tax administration, lowering of taxes etc. 11 See also : Sustainable Transport (1996) The World Bank; and Sustainable Transport Policies (2000), ECMT, OECD. In general, it is difficult to find broadly accepted ways to cost the external effects of transport. It may be even more difficult to find ways to internalise these costs, that is, to make the transport sector or, ultimately, the transport users pay for such (previously) external costs. 36 Furthermore, the cross subsidies from freight and/or inter-city operations (road, rail) become increasingly difficult to maintain. In Public Service Obligation (PSO) agreements transparency is very important. In PSOs, governments and municipalities are to pay for uneconomic services and for privileged passengers. Capital subsidies (i.e. money transfusions) need to be re-considered across transport subsectors. The unprecedented development of information and communication technologies has also profoundly changed the transport sector, both in passenger and goods transport. Vehicle and equipment technology has also developed rapidly during recent decades. E.2. Public Sector Restructuring in the Transport Sector In the setting described above, the role of the government in the transport sector needs to be reconsidered. At the same time, the subnational (i.e. regional or local) challenge involves issues such as increased motorization (with its attendant congestion, pollution, and accidents), and an intensifying polarization between the more developed and less developed regions in the country. The government is also expected to offer – or let somebody else offer - a good quality yet affordable passenger transport or mail delivery service throughout the country. In many cases, there is limited local – or national - government capacity to deal with the social, technical and environmental issues and with the financial demands. Often there is also limited access to external financing. In short, the international experience on the role of a transport ministry could be summarized to the following: (1) Government creates institutional framework to support growth, equity and stability through policies, regulation and incorporating public voice in the decision-making; (2) Government is not a supplier of services, and (3) Government is not a manager/operator, and (4) There should be a single ministry: MOT or MOTC. This contrasts the past experience that was epitomized in modal ministries, few incentives to do better little communication between modes and centralized planning and policymaking. Planning was also assuming a given travel and transport demand. An effective organizational structure of a Ministry of Transport is presented in Figure E.2., which highlights a clear division of responsibilities between the Ministry and the separate agencies or administrations within its control. The overall responsibility of the MOT is to shape the transport policy as part of Government, and to manage the implementation of the regulations and legislation through the subordinated administrations and authorites in their respective modes. This regards both the national legislation and adherence to international conventions. 37 A single ministry, either as a MOT or a MOTC, has proven effective in creating and promoting a balanced policy across transport modes and in combining the related societal, environmental and technical issues. This is particularly important in view of the choices every Government needs to make within the given budgetary constraints. It is important to distinguish between administrations that are funded directly and mainly through budget, and agencies or authorities that are funded fully or to a considerable degree through revenues from user fees, operational charges and the like. The Ministry is also the part of the Government that makes binding national or international commitments, joins sector-specific conventions and is responsible for their implementation as public administration. This responsibility exists regardless of the changes of government, or changes of individuals assuming various positions within the ministry. Minister of Transport Ministry of Transport Policies, Regulations, International Agreements, Legislation. Civil Aviation Adm Airport Authority Land Transport Safety Authority Maritime Authority Safety Rules, Licensing, Safety Rules Licensing Safety Rules Enforcement. Aviation Security and Standards Licensing and Service. Airport Management Enforcement Standards Transport Road Enforcement. Accident Railways Administrat Investigation Port Landlord ion Commission Railway Infrastructure, Road Infrastructure Independent Operations, Rosco Management Investigation of Major Transport Accidents Vehicle Registration and Licensing Agency Figure E.2. Proposed organizational structure of a Ministry of Transport In the South-Caucasus States, the internal organization of MOTs still needs clarification, and in the case of Azerbaijan, a separate MOT or MOTC needs to be created. Furthermore, the continuity of commitments made by ministries or Ministers when cabinets or officials change is an issue that needs improvement. 38 E.3. Transport Sector Policies of the South-Caucasus States E.3.1. Armenia As a landlocked country, Armenia is vitally dependent on transport links through its neighboring countries for imports and exports. Until the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is resolved, only links through Georgia and Iran are open. The land connections rely on a few low-capacity main roads and railways via Georgia and Iran. The main modes are road and rail transport. The share of aviation has been reducing and is very small. Since the independence, Armenian overall industrial output fell dramatically due to the disruption of economic links and the subsequent transport blockade. As a consequence, passenger and goods transport volumes declined substantially. Armenia's transport and communications infrastructure is in a poor state of repair. There is 7,800 km of paved roads, although a high percentage of these are in a state of disrepair. Transport of goods and passengers by all means of transport were dramatically reduced from 1991 to 1994, but both have picked up slightly in 1995 and 1996 (The World Bank 1997). After that, both goods and passenger volumes have declined in 1997-2000. Table E.1. Armenian import and export in 2000 by rail or road transport with major trading partners, in thousand tons Source: TRACECA database By road Georgia Iran Russia Turkey Europe W&S Middle East North America Total by mode 543 83,829 10,763 16,347 7,776 Import Export By rail Sum road By road By rail Sum road and rail and rail 63,480 64,023 1,897 48,926 50,823 0 83,829 33,476 0 33,476 4,607 15,370 9,739 2,912 12,651 31,977 48,324 91 0 91 31,625 39,401 1,207 68,319 69,526 12,446 37 12,483 5,203 2,360 7,563 16,979 19,171 36,150 210 2,486 2,696 148,683 150,897 299,580 51,823 125,003 176,826 The Georgian City of Poti is the nearest seaport, and is a primary gateway for Armenia, for both imports and exports. Both road and railway routes are gradually undergoing much-needed upgrading, with the financial help of the World Bank and also of wealthy Armenians in Diaspora. Armenia’s problematic relations with most of its neighbors affect directly the choice of route and transport mode in foreign trade. This is illustrated in Table E.1., which show that road and rail transports are used equally much in imports (measured in 39 tons), whereas rail transport dominate export movement that cross the Armenian border. These are mainly shipments to Georgia or to Georgian ports for subsequent transport mainly to European markets. A more detailed breakdown of the data by commodities is shown in Attachment E.1. Table E.1. also illustrates the realignment of Armenian international trade, as Armenia has been withdrawing gradually from Russian and other CIS markets, while increasing its trade with Western Europe and Iran. The latter buys scrap metal, copper concentrate and electric power (on a swap basis). All export movements by rail, for both imports and exports, are transported by the northern route, via Georgia, together with a significant proportion of consignment movements by road, underlined the importance of that corridor for Armenia, with all the inherent disadvantages in terms of higher transport costs as identified by Polyakov (2001) and as discussed later in this report. Currently, the main strategic points of the state transport policy are: (i) establishment of a transport system capable to ensure transport of goods and passengers, while fulfilling environmental and safety requirements, (ii) structural adjustments of the transport system and ensuring state regulatory functions for existing transport monopolies, (iii) reducing the transport component in the prices on goods through the establishment of economically justified tariffs, which ensure conditions for fair competition. In order to strengthen international trade links, to develop and strengthen position of national carriers and transport undertakings on the international transport markets, for step-by-step integration of Armenian Transport system in the world transport system, it is essential to improve and develop co-operation with international transport organizations. It is also important to substantially increase the adherence to the international, multilateral and bilateral transport agreements, which set the rules for foreign vehicles in Armenia, and Armenian vehicles abroad. The important international developments include the IV pan-European transport corridor (connection Istanbul -Armenia, with further link to Azerbaijan) and increased activities along TRACECA corridor. It is also important to extend transport link between Armenia and Iran towards the Persian Gulf, towards Black Sea ports and to Turkmenistan. The separate important issue is resuming of rail links TurkeyArmenia - Nakhichevan- Iran and Armenia-Azerbaijan. E.3.2. Azerbaijan The transport sector in Azerbaijan includes aviation, railways, maritime transport and roads. In 2000, transport and communications accounted for 14.4 per cent of the official GDP (IMF 2002). All transport matters are handled within the Cabinet of Ministers. A technical assistance project, funded by EU-TACIS, aims to establish a Ministry of Transport and thereby a legal and regulatory framework for the transport sector. The World 40 Bank has also strongly pushed forward the creation of a Transport Ministry in order to facilitate and streamline transport sector administration. Table E.2. Transport work in Azerbaijan 1989-2000 in millions of ton-kilometers for freight, and millions of passenger-kilometers Source: ECMT; original data gathered from Azerbaijan authorities YEAR Freight Transport Million ton-kilometers Railways Roads Passenger transport Million passenger-km Pipelines For hire & reward 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 5,677 5,052 4,702 3,515 2,777 2,409 3,312 7,300 13,882 30,479 37,076 41,833 3,485 2,968 1,392 902 480 527 569 685 1,278 3,003 3,287 10,165 R a i l w a y s Buses and coaches 10,000 8,137 5,735 5,050 4,864 5,630 519 608 759 1,230 1,252 1,408 9,294 424 533 489 558 791 1,081 1,330 1,629 1,973 1,827 2,022 Out of Azerbaijan's three routes to the high seas the shortest is through Georgia to the Black Sea, the second shortest through Russia to the Black Sea. The longest route is south through Iran to the Persian Gulf. The Russian and Georgian routes have been periodically disrupted by political instability. Road and rail links with Russia were disrupted by a Russian blockade and the Chechen war until 1996 and then again during the latest war in Chechnya in 1999. Azerbaijans economic blockade of Armenia has cut the shortest route to Turkey. Travel between Azerbaijan and the detached enclave of Nakhichevan is by air or by road through Iran. Nakhichevan has a strategically important 33-km border with 41 Turkey. There is 2,090 km of railways, the main source of freight transport. Much of the rail track and rolling stock needs repair or replacement. Azerbaijan has direct maritime connections to other Caspian littoral states but can reach the high seas only through the Volga-Don canal, a Russian waterway. The Port of Baku is the largest port on the Caspian Sea, but is in need of repair. Freight transportation by road and rail increased by 8.7 and 12 per cent respectively in 1999. The sector is in crucial need of institutional restructuring and substantial investments. Table E.3. Balance of Services of Azerbaijan 1997-2000 in USD millions Source: IMF 2002, based on Azerbaijan National Bank data and World Bank staff estimates 1997 1998 1999 2000 -394 -382 -273 -535 Credit 365 370 291 316 Debit 758 752 564 850 -384 -369 -228 -225 342 332 257 260 Freight 67 90 90 88 Other transport 30 39 24 31 Travel 162 125 81 63 Other 83 78 62 77 726 701 485 485 Freight 77 150 39 101 Other transport 32 44 0 43 Travel 186 170 139 132 Other 431 337 307 209 Services and Income Nonfactor services …of which Credit Debit The services trade based on the official Balance of Services data show a consistent net flow of payments abroad. The balance of services payments for freight and other transport indicate relatively large fluctuations, and there is no consistent pattern of whether Azerbaijan is a net payer or receiver of freight related payments. In the travel services, the country has been a net payer in the tune of USD 50 to 70 million per annum. The net income is the sum of freight credits (earnings) received from abroad, less freight service debits paid to other countries. (Table E.3.) 42 A few general remarks on the structure and background of services trade data are required. The data includes all forms of international freight services such as sea, road, rail, pipeline and air transport. However, the data is sensitive to the way in which certain debits and credits are accounted for in the national accounts. This means that the nationality of the carrier, e.g. the ship or truck, is the deciding factor in whether a payment is recorded as a credit or a debit – irrespective of the route of the vehicle or vessel. This means, for example, that a flagging out of ships or aircraft offsets the services balance, even if the ownership of the vehicles or vessels remain practically unchanged. E.3.3. Georgia According to available statistics, the demand for freight and passenger transport all but collapsed after the independence. The downturn also reflects the unstable political and economic environment, even if data quality is affected by deteriorated data gathering and statistics methods in the early 1990s. (Table E.4.) Freight transport data in Table E.4. and E.5. indicate a rapidly recovering transport demand towards the end 1990s. Especially passenger transport by road has also markedly. Rail transport carries about 10 per cent of the passenger-kilometers compared to road transport. The relationship is the opposite with freight: road transport work is roughly 10 per cent of the transport work performed by rail (Table E.4.). ECMT data does not cover air transport, but EBRD (2001) indicates that passenger air transport has not grown much during 1999-2000. New investments in Georgia’s transportation sector are helping to modernize old and deteriorating infrastructure. Particularly promising are new projects to upgrade Georgia’s road and port infrastructure. Table E.4. Transport work in Georgia 1989-2000 in millions of ton-kilometers for freight, and millions of passenger-kilometers Source: ECMT; original data gathered from MoT of Georgia YEAR 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Freight Transport (Million ton-kms) Railways Roads For hire, Reward Buses and Own account and coaches 3,913 475 3,138 420 2,574 385 2,006 304 1,350 131 1,246 130 43 Pipelines 4,953 3,213 Passenger Transport (Million passenger-kms) Railways Roads Private Cars and Buses 453 349 397 294 380 371 4,510 4,310 3,910 3,400 1,615 1,607 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 955 1,554 2,985 8,482 10,834 11,989 84 121 388 1,653 2,577 2,601 1,165 1,003 1,031 1,718 1,969 2,267 1,135 954 2,147 7,110 8,335 8,545 Strengthening the institutional capability of the Georgian MOTC has been an integral part of the World Bank transport credit to the Government of Georgia. The law authorizing the new structure for the Ministry of Transport and Communications (MOTC) has been passed by Parliament, including the authorization of an improved salary structure. The budgets for the operation of the regulatory bodies under the MOTC have been prepared and submitted to the Ministry of Finance. The definite Closing Date of these arrangements has been extended to December 31, 2002 to allow enough time for the completion of the restructured project activities. In regulatory bodies under the MOTC, the work to implement the restructuring will commence as soon as the budgets, including support for the increased salaries, for these agencies are approved. Table E.5. Freight Transport Indicators 1997-2001 for Georgia (in thousands of tons) Source (IMF2001) on Georgia: 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Q1-Q2 19,700 24,120 25,911 30,091 14,601 Rail 7,200 8,495 9,492 11,500 5,984 Road 12,200 15,000 16,000 18,500 8,600 300 625 419 … … Freight transport Sea The Parliamentary Committee on Economic Sectors has expressed their support for the new legislation. They view the restructured MOTC as a possible model for how other ministries and Government agencies can be restructured, and therefore have a keen interest in its progress. E.4. Membership in international transport organizations and conventions The three countries are signatory states of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the international regulatory organization. (Table E.6.). Georgia joined the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 1993 and Azerbaijan in 1995. As a landlocked country, Armenia has not joined IMO. IMO is the United Nations' 44 specialized agency responsible for improving maritime safety and preventing pollution from ships. All three states are also members of World Customs Organization (WCO), which is listed here because of its significance to transport operations in the region. Only Azerbaijan and Georgia are members of the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT). The membership application of Armenia has been vetoed by Azerbaijan. However, Armenias admittance to ECMT would greatly facilitate the regional transport sector development. The issue should be resolved as soon as possible. Table E.6. Membership in international transport-related organizations in 2002 Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia ICAO www.icao.org Yes Yes Yes IMO www.imo.org No Yes Yes ECMT www1.oecd.org/cem No Yes Yes WCO www.wcoomd.org Yes Yes Yes IATA www.iata.org Armenian Airlines Azerbaijan Airlines No UIC www.uic.org Armenian Railways Azerbaijan Railways Georgian Railways FIATA Association of Armenian Freight Forwarders (AAFF) Association of Freight Forwarders of Azerbaijan (AEA) National Association of Freight Forwarders of Georgia (AFG) Industry associations www.fiata.org The national railways of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are so-called active members of International Railways Organization (UIC). All national associations of freight forwarders are members of FIATA, a non-governmental organization that represents approximately 40,000 forwarding firms in 150 countries. Only Armenian Airlines and Azerbaijan Airlines are members of International Air Transport Association (IATA), which is an association of world’s airlines. The UNECE maintains a list of 55 international transport agreements and conventions under seven categories mainly within road, rail and inland waterway transport. These are shown in Table E.7. with the exception of inland waterway agreements and conventions, since the three South-Caucasus States had ratified none of them. 45 As per February 15, 2002, Georgia had ratified thirteen (13) and was a signatory party to one of the 48 remaining conventions in principle applicable to the three states. Azerbaijan had ratified seven (7) and Armenia only two (UNECE 2002). The number of conventions ratified is modest in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and almost non-existing in Armenia. The relevant ministries and authorities need to consider a rapid improvement in adhering to the central international framework in traffic safety and movement of goods. This work is closely associated with the institutional strengthening of the public administration in the transport sector. The case in point is to build up sufficient capability and resources within the Ministries of Transport and the subordinated administrations and authorities to cope with the issues. A successful ratification of conventions means also that they become effective thorough adequate control and enforcement. This requires close cooperation both internationally and nationally between, for example, the transport authorities, the customs and the law enforcement authorities. Table E.7. International road and rail transport agreements and conventions ratified (X) or signed (S) by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia as per February 15, 2002 Source: UNECE 2002 Category (No. Convention or agreement with the year Armenia of conventions) of establishment Infrastructure networks (6) E Road network (AGR), 1975 Azerbaijan Georgia X X E Combined transport network (AGTC), 1991 Road Traffic (11) X Road Traffic, 1949 and 1968 Road Signs Supplements & signals, X, X 1968, with 1971 X, X Protocol Road Markings, 1973 X Vehicles (3) Technical inspection of vehicles, 1997 S Road transport (9) Work of Crews Int. Road Transport (AETR) 1970 X Contract Road Goods transport (CMR), 1956, with Protocol to CMR, 1978 Border crossing facilitation (14) TIR Convention, 1975 X, X X Temporary imported commercial vehicles, 1956 X X Customs Container convention, 1972 Harmonization of Frontier Control of Goods, 1982 46 X X X X X Dangerous goods and special cargoes (5) Dangerous goods by roads (ADR), 1957 X Perishable Foodstuffs (ATP), 1970 X E.6. Environmental sustainability in the transport sector in the region As discussed earlier, sustainability is a broad set of issues comprising social, financial and environmental concerns that affect the whole society in multitude ways. Countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus suffer from many of the same issues as the Western NIS countries, but this region has a larger share of rural population. The Caucasus faces coastal and land degradation issues, as well, and oil-rich Azerbaijan is concerned with oil drilling, pipeline construction, degradation, and oil spill prevention and cleanups12. In agriculture, the irrigation system infrastructure is now crumbling as a result of a chronic lack of maintenance, and poor irrigation practices have led to salinization of the soils. The result is some of the worst poverty in the region. Safe drinking water is also an issue in some rural areas, as groundwater is often polluted by runoff from agriculture and mining. Better price incentives for farmers and restructuring of water user associations could partially help, but it is likely that only a fraction of the irrigation system can be made sustainable over the long term. An uneven distribution of water resources among countries exacerbates these problems and raises transboundary tensions. Efforts to sustainably link energy supplies with water releases and to agree on an overall water management system for the riparian countries have not yet succeeded. The Caspian Sea is threatened by pollution from the Volga and other rivers, pollution and accidental spills from the oil industry, and uncontrolled poaching, which threatens biodiversity, especially the sturgeon fishery. Regional agreements on management of the Caspian Sea remain difficult, making World Bank- or other IFI- assisted programs hard to implement. Environmental sustainability in connection to the transport sector and in particular air pollution in the South Caucasus is discussed in more detail. Urban air pollution is a growing concern in many newly independent states (NIS). Traffic volumes are growing rapidly in the cities, but vehicle registration, inspection, and maintenance lag behind what is needed to support efforts to improve air quality. Although certain emissions, such as greenhouse gases, are of global concern, the greatest costs of air pollution at the local level are to human health. An estimated 40,000 people die prematurely and about 100,000 people fall ill every year in big See also The World Bank’s website for regional environmental strategy at: http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/essd/essd.nsf/2f8eec6c436b828385256a290067cab0/5ea0170644da4fc28 5256a8b00786fc5?OpenDocument 12 47 X cities throughout the NIS as a result to exposure to excessive air pollution. (Kojima et. al. 2000). The economic costs of these health impacts are estimated to reach as much as 5 per cent of city incomes. Of primary importance are fine particulate matter, implicated in respiratory diseases; and lead, which is injurious to children’s mental development and is a persistent pollutant that accumulates in the environment. In many cities in Azerbaijan, for example, transport is said to be the main source of air pollution. (Kojima et. al. 2000). In Azerbaijan, the national environmental action plan (NEAP)13 from 1998 lists key environmental problems and set priorities for actions. The main environmental problems identified in the NEAP include: Severe pollution damage caused by industries, oil exploration and production, and energy; Threat of irreversible collapse of the sturgeon stock triggered by pollution and overfishing; Deteriorating water quality, especially of drinking water, both in rural and urban areas, causing increase of water born diseases; Loss of fertile agricultural land from erosion, salinization, pollution with heavy metals and chemicals, and deteriorating irrigation systems; loss of forestry cover, mainly in war-affected areas; and threats to protected areas leading to losses in biodiversity; Damage to the Caspian coastal zone caused by flooding from sea level rise and pollution. According to NEAP, industries, oil production, energy and transport sectors have been the source of severe air, water, and soil pollution in Azerbaijan, particularly in Sumgait and parts of Baku. The main reasons are outdated technology, malfunctioning or even lacking end-of-pipe pollution abatement equipment and use of low quality raw materials generating high pollution emissions and waste. While pollution decreased as industries declined, there is evidence that pollution per unit of output has increased in many enterprises. Thus, pollution may rapidly increase as a result of industrial recovery if no measures are taken to improve the industries' environmental performance. The actions proposed in NEAP to mitigate the industrial damage are based on country's strategic considerations and include the following: in the industrial sector, upgrading emission monitoring equipment and leak detection capabilities; investing in modern technologies such as compressor stations and condensation systems; and cleaning-up critical public health hazards. In the energy sector, investment in new equipment and control devices, and introducing new, efficient technologies is necessary. In the transport sector, investment in new buses and trucks; restricting passenger car-traffic in central Baku; and increasing taxes on leaded fuel (www.ecocaucasus.org). Based on air quality measurements in Baku and Tashkent reported by Kojima et. al. (2000, 9) it appears that at least the level of airborne lead has been historically underestimated in this region. On the other hand, they also 13 Prepared for the State Committee on Ecology and Control of Natural Resources Utilization. Source: http://ecocaucasus.org/en/glav.htm 48 mention that gasoline in Azerbaijan has been entirely unleaded since 1997 (Kojima et.al. 2000, 12). NEAP records that since 1978, the water level of the Caspian Sea has risen almost 2.5 meters, and extensive flooding damage has occurred along Azerbaijan's coast due to the relative flatness of the terrain and dense coastal development. Since 1996 the water level has declined slightly. This has significantly altered the relative order of priority actions in the NEAP as protection measures are less urgent, and there is some time to develop a coastal zone protection plan before new areas are flooded. The potentially rising water level poses problems to shipping and ports too. According to the port of Baku, the timber terminal that was flooded in 1996 has not been used since. Table E.8. Air emissions of CO, NOX, SO2 and particulate pollutants in Georgia (1000 tons), based on fuel sales. Source: http://ecocaucasus.org/en/air.htm Type 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Transport 894 584 472 407 363 301 378 395 Industry 354 249 186 80 45 25 15 15 Summary 1248 833 658 487 408 326 393 410 In Georgia, air quality was monitored regularly before the early 1990s. This is not the case today, and it is necessary to renew the appropriate measurement sites. According to the non-governmental organization Ecocaucasus14, road and air transport stand for an overwhelming part of the total air pollution in Georgia. Approximately 500 000 vehicles are officially registered in Georgia. Most of these are between 10-15 years with exhaust emissions exceeding permitted levels. The majorities have no catalytic converters. Fuel consumption of cars is about 11.2 liters per 100 km, and of light trucks 30 liters. (Table E.8.) During the Soviet times, the main traffic artery was in a North – South direction, whereas it is now in a West-East direction. The aim of Government of Georgia is to revive the Silk Route along the TRACECA program. If the traffic volumes increase as planned, this will have consequences for the air quality along the TRACECA route. According to the Ecocaucasus, the main source of aerial emissions of CO, NOX, SO2 and particulate pollutants in Georgia is transport. Import and production of leaded fuel was banned in Georgia as from January 1, 2001 (See also Kojima et.al., 2000, 6). However, the current national fuel monitoring system does not have the resources to conduct adequate testing. Furthermore, testing is not being enforced. 14 Source: http://ecocaucasus.org/en/air.htm 49 Large infrastructure projects face environmental concerns beyond air pollution issues. For example, the environmental impact of oil transit development in Georgia has been subject to considerable NGO concerns. These relate, among others, to the possible negative effects on Kolkheti Wetlands and protected areas along the Black Sea coastline. This particular issue is elaborated for example in the correspondence between a group of environmental NGOs and The World Bank15. It is evident that the active participation of and observations by NGOs will carry more weight in transport and infrastructure project preparation and implementation. E.7. Transport Sector Projects and IFIs, the EU and UN/ESCAP The few transport sector projects in the South-Caucasus States have been financed with exclusive or partial funding through International Financial Institutions (IFIs) or from other international organizations such as the UN/ECE and EU. The main IFIs in this respect include Asian Development Bank, EBRD, EIB, and the World Bank (in alphabetical order). IFIs have typically been involved in the financing of transport infrastructure projects in road, rail, sea, and air transport. Table E.9. Approved EBRD, TRACECA, and World Bank lending and aid in Transport Sector in the South-Caucasus States Sources: EBRD, www.traceca.org, and The World Bank Currency EBRD*) IGCTraceca World Bank EUR million EUR million USD million Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Total Period 24.5 50 20+ 94.5+ By end 2000 26.4 By end-2001 162 1992-July 2001 71 41 50 *) For Georgia, the indicated EUR 20 million is the minimum of commitments In the 1990s, the role of private sector finance has been negligible in projects involving transport operations in the South Caucasus states. During the past few years, private sector involvement notably from the EU countries has been increasing in the provision of transport services. The total transport sector funding through loans and aid from selected institutions is shown in Table E.9. Except for Azerbaijan, The World Bank lending is mainly through IDA. IGC TRACECA aid is mainly coming from the EU, and the EUR 26.4 15 The correspondence is available at: NGO letter to The World Bank on June 5, 2001: http://lnweb.worldbank.org/ECA/eca.nsf/Attachments/Georgia+Letter+from+NGOs/$File/NGOl etter.pdf The World Bank reply to NGOs on July 27, 2001: http://lnweb.worldbank.org/ECA/eca.nsf/Attachments/Georgia+Letter+to+NGOs/$File/Ltr-NGOSOilTransitDev-072701.pdf 50 million in Table E.6. indicates projects that involve only these three countries. TRACECA projects involving also other eligible countries alongside Armenia, Azerbaijan and/or Georgia amount to an additional EUR 14.3 million (see separate section on TRACECA). EBRD lending is also described in more detail in a separate section. E.7.1. World Bank finance in the transport sector in the South-Caucasus States Data for the World Bank’s program in the South-Caucasus States is shown in “Country at a glance”-attachments C.1.-3. They show also the total volume of IFI loans in all sectors. The overall bank lending to the three countries is shown in Table E.10. The largest single sector is economic policy, followed by agriculture and public sector management. The World Bank transport sector portfolio in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is dominated by road projects (approximately 65 percent), followed by urban transport (approximately 20 percent) and rail projects (approximately 8 percent)16. Table E.10. World Bank Lending to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia by Sector since 1992 (in nearest USD millions as of July 2001) Economic Policy Agriculture Public Sector Management Transportation Electric Power & Energy Social Protection Water Supply and Sanitation Urban Development Private Sector Development Education Health, Nutrition & Population Environment Total Total IDA debt outstanding & disbursed Armenia 250 84 77 71 35 32 30 Azerbaijan 142 87 61 41 40 20 20 Georgia 277 105 54 50 39 28 26 Sector total 669 276 192 162 114 80 76 28 17 18 18 24 15 70 50 15 10 5 5 14 11 34 26 8 658 388 5 462 216 4 648 347 17 1768 951 In Armenia, the World Bank projects have mainly focused on job creation through the private sector, public sector reform, education and health sector projects. The Bank has extended lending totaling USD 658 million by July 2001. Transport sector projects have involved 10.8 per cent of this. The Bank’s lending program for Armenia in 2002-2004 is expected to be at USD 65150 million. Transport sector projects include rehabilitation and repair of 630km of 16 For further information, see www.worldbank.org/ecspf/ecsin/transport.htm 51 interstate road and a road tunnel in 1996-2000. In June 2000 the World Bank approved a USD 40 million IDA credit provision for a national transport program at a total cost of USD 47 million. The government is contributing about USD 6.4 million to the program that covers road, rail and urban transport, and strengthening the transport ministry through technical support and training. As far as roads are concerned, this includes rehabilitation of interstate trade routes, engineering supervision for road and bridge upgrades and a road safety program. Armenia has also been the recipient of many TRACECA studies whose main theme has been improving transport links northwards to the Trans-Caucasian corridor in Georgia. The Bank’s operations in Azerbaijan started in 1995, after which it has extended credit totaling USD 462 million by July 2001. Transport sector projects have involved 8.9 per cent of this. In Georgia, The World Bank’s total lending amounts to USD 648 million. Main areas include the third Structural Adjustment Credit (SAC III, approx. USD 55 million), civil service reform, agriculture, energy, environment, public infrastructure, education and health sector projects. The Bank’s lending program for 2002-2004 is expected to be at USD 85-240 million. Transport sector projects represent 7.7 per cent of total lending to Georgia as of July 2001. In May 2000, the World Bank approved USD 40 million in IDA financing for a USD 55 million project for road construction and rehabilitation in Georgia. The Georgian government is providing the remaining USD 15 million. USD 50 million will go towards road rehabilitation, focusing on repairs, modernization of highway design and safety improvements through road signs and markings. The project targets major roads between the Azeri border and the Black Sea, the road from Tbilisi to Armenia, and the Tbilisi-Russia highway. Remaining project funds will be allocated to improving institutional and professional management within the transportation sector, by increasing the institutional capacity of the state roads department, modernizing the road fund and user charges, developing a traffic safety program, and introducing international standards. It has been estimated that the five-year project will result in the repair of around 900 kilometers of road in Georgia. In addition, the Fund for Economic Development of Arab Countries (Kuwait) is providing a USD 16 million soft loan to help Georgia repair its roads over the next three years. The project will target roads between Marneuli and Sadakhlo (a section of the main Tbilisi- Yerevan route), the by-pass around the Black Sea port of Poti, the bridge across the river Kaparcha, and the roads between Samtredia, Lanchkhuti, and Grigoleti. In the South-Caucasus States, the Bank’s transport sector involvement is mainly in the road and rail subsectors followed by ports. The Bank has also been an advisor or facilitator in a number of small projects on either trade and transport facilitation or urban transport in South-Caucasus States. In 1999, the World Bank Group, together with the private sector and other international organizations, launched the Global Facilitation Partnership for Transportation and Trade (GFP). This is an initiative to help in addressing a 52 pervasive issue in numerous countries throughout the world, namely the obstacles to trade and international transport arising from cumbersome, often redundant, documentary procedures and controls17. E.7.2. EBRD finance in the transport sector in the South-Caucasus States By the end of 2000, EBRD had signed 7 investments in Armenia, with cumulative commitments amounting to EUR 141.8 million focusing on energy, and private and financial sector development. The only commitment in the transport sector as at 31 December 2000 is the EUR 24.5 million debt in the Zvartnots Air Cargo Terminal project with a total cost of EUR 29.9 million (EBRD 2001b). EBRD assistance to Azerbaijan started in 1995, and has concentrated on SME development, municipal and environmental infrastructure, energy, telecommunications, natural resources (notably for the exploitation of oil reserves), transport, privatization and legal reform. Cumulatively, EBRD has allocated some USD 351.5 million of which USD 220 million have been for the development of oil and gas projects. As at December 2000, EBRD had signed three investment projects in Azerbaijan’s transport sector with total investment commitments of almost USD 50 million. These investments include (i) a USD 13 million loan for Azerbaijan State Airlines for the modernization of Azerbaijan’s air navigation systems, (ii) a USD 20.2 million loan for Azerbaijan State Railways for infrastructure improvements along the main line to Georgia and (iii) a USD 16.2 million loan for the reconstruction of a ferry terminal at Baku International Sea Port. An additional project aimed at the rehabilitation of a road section on the Baku-Georgia highway is awaiting the provision of a sovereign guarantee. All these projects support the transport corridor linking Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia (TRACECA) and introduce institutional strengthening and commercialization initiatives (EBRD 2001 c). By the end of 2000, EBRD had signed 14 investments in Georgia, with total cumulative commitment amounting to EUR 252 million, of which 60.3 % have been disbursed. Energy, telecommunications, industry and transport are the main sectors for prospective projects. Projects that have focussed on removal of transport bottlenecks include projects at Tbilisi airport, railway rehabilitation, and ports of Batumi and Poti. For example, in December 1998, the EBRD provided a loan of USD 20 million to Georgian Railways alongside USD 7 million from TACIS to finance infrastructure improvements along the main international rail transit route from Baku to Georgia’s Black Sea ports. The project has succeeded in promoting a more commercially oriented organizational structure for Georgia’s railways, as evidenced by the conversion of Georgian Railways into a limited liability company. Although initially expected to lead to the enactment of a new railway law, separating policy and operating responsibilities within the railway sector, the project has yet to achieve this goal. 17 The GFP Website address: http://wbln0018.worldbank.org/twu/gfp.nsf 53 E.7.3. European Union assistance in South Caucasus The European Union has taken an active role in assisting the South-Caucasus States in social, economic and technological development in many sectors. In the transport sector, the main vehicles or initiatives during the 1990s have been the TACIS program and the work within the IGC TRACECA and the oil pipeline INOGATE. A detailed evaluation of the multitude of EU projects lies beyond this report, but some forms of EU assistance, or relevant programs in the transport sector are highlighted18. In 1991-2001 the EU has given Armenia EUR 286.1 million of grant-based assistance19. In addition it has participated in Interstate programs (TRACECA, INOGATE, Environment, Justice and Home Affairs…). EUR 2.4 million are reserved in the humanitarian program ECHO in 2000-2001. (http://www.tacis.org) Since independence (1991 to 2001) the EU has given Georgia EUR 342.9 million in grants, of which 63 per cent humanitarian and food aid 20. These allocations do not include shares allocated to Georgia in the framework of regional programs. The EC assistance to Azerbaijan in 1992-2001 amounts to EUR 333.9 million in the form of humanitarian aid, food aid and budgetary food security assistance, exceptional assistance, rehabilitation and technical assistance. E.7.3.1. TACIS Launched by the European Communities in 1991, the Tacis Program provides grantfinanced technical assistance to 13 countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia21, and mainly aims at enhancing the transition process in these countries. The Tacis program has had a marked impact on the institutional and technical development of all three South-Caucasus states, but only a small part of these have been carried out in transport subsectors. Tacis projects have dealt closely related fields such as trade and transport facilitation, customs and border guard services In 2002-2003, the priority areas for Tacis activities in Armenia support institutional, legal and administrative reforms, and support the social consequences of transition. The indicative budget for assistance in that period is EUR 10 million. No transport or infrastructure specific activities are planned for that period (EU Country Strategy, Armenia). 18 For a review of these, see europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/ceeca/tacis/ 19 For further details, see: http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/armenia/intro/index.htm See: http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/georgia/intro/index.htm 20 21 Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Mongolia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. 54 Since 1991, Georgia has received over EUR 70 million as Tacis aid. An indicative budget for assistance for 2002-2003 is EUR 14 million. Apart from supporting general institutional, legal and administrative reforms, support to Georgian Border Guards has an indicative budget of EUR 1 million. A feasibility study on the missing link along the TRACECA road (known as the “Goresha bridges”) needs to be completed by June 2002, in order to allow for a final timely decision on using Tacis funds for the 2002-2003 administrative period for Georgia. Should the prerequisites for such funding be met, equivalent funds up to EUR 2.5 million would be made available. (EU Country Strategy, Georgia). The main transport sector involvement of TACIS22 has been through INOGATE and TRACECA. Other projects include a Feasibility study for improvement of safety in gas transport management systems (EUR 1 million) for upgrading the a management and control (SCADA) systems, and the project on Reorganization of the transport sector administration (EUR 2.4 million), which is preparing the establishment of a Ministry of Transport and assisting in restructuring processes. This project was started in November 1999. E.7.3.2. Inter-Governmental Group TRACECA23 The TRACECA Program was launched at a conference in Brussels in May 1993 which brought together trade and transport ministers from the original eight TRACECA countries (five Central Asian republics and three Caucasian republics), where it was agreed to implement a program of European Union (EU) funded technical assistance to develop a transport corridor on a west - east axis from Europe, across the Black Sea, through the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea to Central Asia (Figure E.4.). The program corresponds to the global EU strategy towards these countries and retains the following objectives: To support the political and economic independence of the republics by enhancing their capacity to access European and World markets through alternative transport routes To encourage further regional co-operation among the partner states To increasingly use TRACECA as a catalyst to attract the support of International Financial Institutions (IFIs) and private investors To link the TRACECA route with the Trans - European Networks (TENs) By end-2001, the TRACECA program has financed 25 Technical Assistance projects (EUR 35 million) and 11 investment projects for the rehabilitation of infrastructure (EUR 47 million). 22 For EU and TACIS assistance in Azerbaijan, see: http://web.azerweb.com/Organizations/TacisAZinfo.html and http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/azerbaidjan/intro/ 23 At this stage, based on: http://www.traceca.org/tracecaf.htm 55 The leaders of the partner states consider that the TRACECA route is of strategic importance, by assuring them of an alternative transport link to Europe. TRACECA stimulates competition between and with their previously exclusive route to the north, and newer alternative routes to the south. Furthermore, it is seen as complementary to their renewed commercial exchanges with the Far East, evoking the possibility of the ancient Silk Route becoming once again a major trade corridor. The TRACECA program has resulted in closer co-operation and dialogue among government authorities, which has led to agreements to keep transit fees at competitive levels, and efforts to simplify border-crossing formalities. There have also been agreements to ship large volumes of cargo along the TRACECA corridor, recognizing that this route is the shortest and potentially the fastest and cheapest route from Central Asia to deep-water ports linked with world markets. The technical assistance provided through TRACECA has helped to attract large transport sector investments from the IFIs, that include the EBRD commitments for capital projects on ports, railways and roads along the TRACECA route totaling over USD 250 million, the World Bank who, apart from other projects, have made commitments on roads in Armenia and Georgia totaling over USD 40 million, and the Asian Development Bank (AsDB) who have committed substantial funds to road and railway improvements. Figure E.4. A schematic illustration of TRACECA routes Source: EBRD 2001c 56 In addition, EU private investors are engaging in joint ventures with Caucasian and Central Asian transport companies. The EU is supporting the program with other EC projects to further enhance regional co-operation and economic sustainability in the region such as the Southern Ring Air Routes project and the Oil and Gas Pipeline project (INOGATE). Table E.11. shows a summary of TRACECA- funded projects involving the three South-Caucasus States. The east-west corridor from Central Asia through the Caucasus into the Black Sea, and their linking with European transport networks and other worldwide destinations is a physically functioning reality, carrying substantial cargo. The integration and harmonization of the regions transport regulatory environment with European and international norms are an on-going process. TRACECA is the principal vector of the European agencies for the introduction of practices to reduce non-physical barriers to the movement of goods. TRACECA organizes regional conferences and seminars in close interaction with the IFI programs, with UN-ECE and UN-ESCAP, the activities of TRACECA consultancy and direct investment projects. Table E.11. TRACECA- funded projects involving Armenia, Azerbaijan and/or Georgia with given project budgets in EUR and implementation period. Source: TRACECA website at : http://www.traceca.org/tracecaf.htm Rehabilitation of the Caucasian railways (Armenia, Azerbaijan Republic, Georgia) EUR 5,000,000 October 1995 - June 1996 Rehabilitation of the red bridge and construction of the Traceca bridge (Azerbaijan and Georgia) EUR 2,500,000 March 1997 - October 1998 Container services between Baku (Azerbaijan), Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan) EUR 2,500,000 Feb. 1998 – Feb. 1999 Design and construction of a rail ferry facility in the port of Poti (Georgia) EUR 3,400,000 Feb. 1998 – Feb. 1999 Establishment of a ferry cargo movement computer system and supply and installation of computers and communication equipment for the ports of Poti and Iliychevsk (Ukraine) EUR 1,500,000 December 1997 – Oct. 1998 Cargo and container handling equipment for the cotton export logistics center near Bukhara (Uzbekistan), and for the seaports of Baku, Turkmenbashi, Poti and Iliychevsk EUR 5,825,000 February 1998 - August 1999 Rail tank wagon cleaning boilers, Baku EUR 475,000 June 1999 - December 1999 Intermodal / terminal equipment (Karmir Belur, Chimkent, Aktau, Bishkek) Geographic Focus: Republics of Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrghyzstan EUR 2,500, 000 August 1999 for 9 months Optical cable system to the railways of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia EUR 15,000,000 2001-> 24 months Supply of navigational aid equipment (in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan Turkmenistan,) EUR 2,000,000 2001 -> 12 months 57 E.7.4. UN/ESCAP The UN Economic and Social Commission for Central Asia and Pacific (ESCAP) has been promoting a number of transport and infrastructure project connecting its member countries and other parts of the world since the early 1990s. In view of the vision of the eventually integrated Asia-Europe transport system and to facilitate international trade and tourism in the region, the ESCAP endorsed in the early 1990s the integrated project on Asian land transport infrastructure development (ALTID), comprising the Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway projects as well as the facilitation of international land transport. At its fifty-third session held in 1997, ESCAP reiterated its support for the ALTID project as a priority item in the Regional action program for the implementation of the New Delhi Action Plan on Infrastructure Development in Asia and the Pacific for 1997-2006, in line with its earlier support provided in 1996 on intra-Asia and Asia-Europe land bridges. Under the Asian Highway component of the ALTID, routes were identified, and a network was revised or formulated in a number of ESCAP member countries. An Asian Highway network was formulated in the seven Central Asian republics, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The Asian Highway standards have been revised to constitute a general guideline for the routes. The Trans-Asian Railway network includes such important land bridges between Asia and Europe as: Europe-Russian Federation and/or China-Korean peninsula (northern Trans-Asian Railway routes); Europe-Islamic Republic of Iran-South Asia-South East Asia (southern Trans-Asian Railway routes); the "New Silk Railway" (EuropeTurkey-Islamic Republic of Iran-Central Asia-China); and TRACECA corridor (Europe - across Black Sea - Caucasus - across Caspian Sea - Central Asia). The work of ESCAP throughout the 1990s and beyond can be seen as providing a basis to discuss and prepare long term international infrastructure projects, realization of which are subject to national and international finance. 58 F. Roads and road transport This Chapter provides an analysis of the road sector, with special attention to (i) national road expenditure needs; (ii) the existing road financing schemes (source of road funding, the existence, structure and level of road user charges, the fund allocation mechanisms overall and to the different level of the road network: national, urban, rural roads); and (iii) road management: role and organization of the State Road Administration. F.1. Road networks and vehicle statistics In each country, the road network is owned and maintained by the national road authorities, which are part of central government. The road network is, in general, in ill repair. The length of the road network and its reach is also poor. (Table F.1.) Table F.1. Road network and vehicle statistics, 1998 Source: Kojima et.al. 2000, data for no. of Armenian vehicles, World Bank Paved roads Unpaved roads 8,560 0 8,580 304,000 Azerbaijan 54,188 3,582 57,770 Georgia 19,354 1,346 20,700 Armenia Total Total vehicles Total light duty Total heavy duty 365,782 272,092 93,690 406,733 340,407 66,326 The vehicle stock is generally overaged, and the number of new registration is small. According to the data gathered by ECMT, a total of 8,754 new private cars were registered in Georgia in 2000. The figure for 1999 was 11,336 and 13,961 for 1998. The corresponding number of newly registered private cars in Azerbaijan was, oddly enough, only about 300 in 1998-2000, but this may be due to inaccurate statistics or scale in original data source. F.1.1. Armenia Armenia has a relatively well-developed road network, serving all areas of Armenia’s economy with a road density of 257.6 kilometers per 1,000 square kilometers. The road network consists of 7,700 kilometers of interstate roads, regional roads and local 59 roads. Of these, 1,400 kilometers are interstate roads, 2,520 kilometers are regional roads, and 3,780 kilometers are local roads24. (Figure F.1.) The Armenian government has undertaken to renovate roughly one-third of the 1,500 kilometers of main roads in Armenia. Reconstruction of a bridge over the Araks River, completed in December 1995, has improved road access to Iran and facilitated the supply of consumer goods. The World Bank helped to prepare a USD 36.9 million project to rehabilitate strategic road links to Georgia and to improve road sector cost recovery, which was funded in 1995 by the IDA together with EU, EBRD and France. Figure F.1. Main road connections in Armenia (ESCAP 2000) 24 Depending on the source, the data may change: Total road network is 7 700 km, including: 1560 km interstate roads, 1800 km state roads, 4340 km local roads. A detailed catalogue of Armenian roads can also be found through the International Road Association PIARC through: http://www.piarc.org/pub/cd-01-e.htm#contenu 60 The land area of the republic is 30,000 square kilometers, with complex mountainous landscape. Due to the complexity of landscape road infrastructure is more developed, compared to the rail - density of rail is 26km per 1000 square km, density of road is 258 km per 1000 square km. Majority of freight and passenger transport is performed by road. Country's location is providing a good opportunity for international freight transport towards North-South and East-West directions. Existing road network enables traffic in both directions and provides a connection trough the territory of the Republic of Armenia between Russia and Black Sea Ports on one side, and Iran and countries of Middle East on the other side (North -South); between Turkey and Azerbaijan (EastWest). Conditional parameters (types of pavement and their width, curves, bridges...) of main routs are almost fully complying with international standards. Existing network of interstate roads does not require further extension towards new directions. The main task is to improve and maintain the existing network. Due to the WB loans in 1996-2000, 630km of interstate road and a road tunnel (1.8 km) were rehabilitated and repaired. Owing to WB loans and LINT's (Lincy) Charity Fund these works will be continued and by 2004 another 400 km of interstate road and several bridges will be rehabilitated. One of the main directions of these works is an improvement of road safety. As a result the conditional parameters of main roads will improve substantially and they will be close to the requirements of European standards. One of the main directions of the transport policy, including policy in the field of road infrastructure, is regional co-operation and implementation of joint programs. An example could be joint maintenance works with Georgian road authorities on roads connecting Georgia and Armenia, project on the exemption and/or reduction of transit fees at the borders. Another example of beneficial co-operation is the construction of a bridge between Armenia and Iran. F.1.2. Azerbaijan There are about 25,000 kilometers of roads in the country, serving domestic cargo traffic and giving access to international main highways. The roads are in poor condition and in urgent need of upgrading and maintenance. (Figure F.2.) There are about 300,000 cars and more than 80,000 lorries registered in the country although the number of lorries fell slightly in 2000 because of a decline in the volume of external trade and periodical transport disruptions due to border closures in the region. The number of passenger cars has remained steady since independence and was 35.6 per 1,000 inhabitants in 1998. The number of trucks, however, fell by 19.7% between 1990 and 1998, in part a result of the reasons stated above. Road links are disrupted with Armenia because of the unresolved issue of NagornoKarabakh. Travel between the mainland and detached enclave of Nakhichevan is by 61 air or by road through Iran. Nakhichevan has a 33-kilometer strategic border with Turkey. As shown in Table E.5. Azerbaijan has signed seven international conventions related to road transport. According to the Trade & Transport Facilitation in Caucausus final report (2002) it has also entered into bilaterla road transport agreements with Georgia (1997), Kazakhstan (1997), Moldova (1998), Romania (1997), Ukraine (2000), and Uzbeksitan (1996). Figure F.2. Main road connections in Azerbaijan (ESCAP 2000) F.1.3. Georgia Georgia’s roads consist of international motorways (1,474 kilometers), state highways (3,326 kilometers), and local roads (15,429 kilometers). The poor condition of roads in Georgia, caused by a lack of financing and limited private ownership of the road network, represents a large barrier to investment and growth. According to Georgian MOTC, 80% of road maintenance and 100% of road construction are privatised. The government has introduced user charges and a Road Fund, has improved collection of payments and has undertaken some restructuring of enterprises, but full enforcement has yet to occur. One source of income for the Road Fund is the vehocle and overweight fees collected at border crosiing points (See Attachment F.1.) Plans for road projects funded by IFIs are set to improve road infrastructure in the years ahead. 62 Table F.2. Breakdown of the road network in Georgia in 2001 Source: Georgian MOTC reply to the seminar questionnaire, 2002 Roads International Interstate Local Total Total length, km 1474 3326 15429 20229 I km 13 0 0 13 II km 765 33 0 798 Category III km 180 266 0 446 IV km 422 1839 3310 5571 V km 94 1188 12119 13401 F.2. Organization of the road subsector This section focuses on the ownership, private sector participation, institutional arrangements, and economic analysis in the road sector. In the transport sector, the actors can in principle assume four types of role. An analysis of the road sector actors and operations based on this classification is shown in Table F.3. Administrator: Responsible for effecting policy and the political aims of owner. Owner: Responsible for funding, policy and the legal framework. Government.” Responsible for the National Interests. Manager: Responsible for specifying activities, supervising, and monitoring. Supplier: Normally a private sector firm delivering services and civil works. 63 “The Table F.3. The governance of road networks in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia Source: Antti Talvitie, Tbilisi Seminar , April 18-19, 2002; parenthesis indicate population in millions Rd Class/km Actor Armenia (3.2) Azerbaijan (8.0) Georgia (5.4) Main Roads Owner MOT Government Government AR: 4061 km Administrator AR JCS Avtoyol SDRG AZ: 4689 km Manager AR JCS Avtoyol SDRG GE: 6013 km Supplier Private sector Avtoyol&Private Private sector Rural Roads Owner Mars Raion Raion AR: 3 727 km Administrator Mars ? SDRG AZ: 19 311 km Manager Mars ? SDRG GE: 15 564 km Supplier ? ? Private sector Streets Owner Municipality Municipality Municipality AR: 2000 km Administrator Municipality Municipality Municipality AZ: Manager Municipality Municipality Municipality GE: Supplier ? ? Private sector Private roads The framework for private, low volume roads does not exists F.3. Safety issues Traffic safety is a serious concern in all the three countries and in an international comparison the number of fatalities in road traffic is extremely high (Table F.4.). Table F.4. does not cover Armenia, since it is not a member of ECMT, but compared to international standards the road safety level is very poor there too. In Armenia, there were 721 road fatalities on public roads in 1990, but the number had declined to 318 fatalities in 1993. This, however, was deemed more attributable to sharply declining traffic volumes and poor accident reporting than any improvement in basic safety standards or conditions (World Bank 1997). One of the tasks facing the public administration is to organize the work to improve traffic safety through appropriate measures, co-operation with NGOs and through raising public awareness and skills. This work has merely begun, and the efforts of Armenia could be mentioned as an example of the way forward. 64 Table F.4. Road accidents in (a) Georgia 1989-2000 and in (b) Azerbaijan 1991-2000 Source: ECMT YEAR (a) Road Accidents in Georgia Number of accidents Number of (Killed & Injured) Total 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1,708 1,782 1,752 1,644 1,627 1,567 1,539 1,522 2,054 3,574 2,963 2,621 (b) Road Accidents in Azerbaijan 2,582 2,711 2,602 2,525 2,455 2,360 2,471 2,477 4,136 5,536 4,561 3,887 of which Killed 500 539 466 449 437 450 494 542 883 1,145 1,067 797 Number of accidents Number of (Killed & Injured) Total 1,987 1,996 1,984 1,988 2,185 2,513 2,871 2,829 3,045 3,336 N/A N/A 2,199 2,870 2,884 2,888 3,183 3,776 4,399 4,376 4,697 4,983 N/A N/A of which Killed 596 554 594 605 763 990 1,107 1,152 1,265 1,281 N/A N/A The Armenian Government has recently appointed a Road Safety Council, chaired by the Minister of Transport and Communications. In 2001, the Government also established a Secretariat for the Council and appointed its Secretary. The Council is located in Armenian Roads SSCC. Staffing for the Secretariat will require at least two additional positions (traffic police expert and expert on campaign for public road safety awareness), which will be recruited and hired on a consultant basis on one or two year contracts. The persons will be competitively selected and approved by IDA, and financed from the Technical Support component of the IDA Credit. In Georgia, the state road police, who come under the authority of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, are responsible for maintaining road safety in Georgia. As many local drivers do not operate their vehicles in accordance with established road rules, motorists should exercise extreme caution when driving, and pedestrians should be careful when crossing streets. Roads in Georgia often lack shoulder markings and centerlines. In addition, traffic signals may not work as a result of power outages and burned-out bulbs. Undivided two-lane roads connect most major cities, and motorists attempting to pass other vehicles may encounter oncoming high-speed traffic. Driving at night can be especially dangerous. Travel on mountain roads is treacherous in both rain and snow, and heavy snowfalls may make some roads impassable. 65 F.4. Economic and technical analysis on road works A widespread use and expertise in economic and technical analysis on road works is a necessity for well-functioning road sector. Overall, the technical capability of the road authorities and the local road construction companies is relatively limited, and there is considerable need for improvement. In Armenia, for example, local authorities (Maspetarans) provide maintenance of local roads. The 18 state owned and 20 privatized road-construction and maintenance undertakings are providing road repair and maintenance in the Republic. However, advances have been made in this field, as shown with the example of Armenia below. The Pavement Management System (PMS) based on the Highway Development and Management System version 4 (HDM-4) for Armenia is practically completed. All surveyed data on the state of roads can now be entered into the database and the system will automatically divide the road network into homogenous sections and prepare necessary data for the HDM-4. AR will now complete the calibration of HDM-4. About 2,400-km road survey results have been introduced into the system in 2001. Armenia is in the forefront of developing a PMS based on HDM-4 and expects this to become the major tool for road planning and economic analysis. AR will discuss with Birmingham University the issue of ownership of the PMS and possibilities of PMS and expertise export to other countries. F.5. Road financing The road budgets in the three states are very limited with respect to the size and population of the countries. This is exemplified in Tables F.5. and F.6., which compare the South Caucasus states to the Baltic States as presented by The World Bank’s Mr. Talvitie in the Tbilisi seminar. Even if direct comparison between these two regions is not possible, the difference in magnitude is very large. One significant feature is the very low fuel taxes in the South Caucasus States. Except for Georgia, Road Funds are currently not used, but they have been operational. The financial situation of Armenian Roads SSCC (AR) is extremely strained. Armenia has no Road Fund, but the MOTC has been prepared to set up a working group to study that option. As can be seen in Table F.7., the level of Armenian road spending has reduced dramatically after the independence. A similar pattern is found in Azerbaijan and Georgia too. According to AR, from 1995 onwards, about 90 per cent of all road investments were financed by World Bank loans. 66 Table F.5. A Comparison of Networks, Budgets, and Fuel Taxes: The Baltic vs. the South-Caucasus Countries (The values within parentheses indicate the size of the road budgets using USD/km values in the Baltic States) Country Population (millions) Road Network (km, no streets) Road Budget (US$m 1999) Budget US$/km Estonia 1.4 16 517 47.0 2845 Latvia 2.4 20 329 64.0 3150 Lithuania 3.7 21 603 135.0 6250 Armenia 3.2 7 788 4.2 (19.5) 540 Azerbaijan 8.0 23 990 11.2 (60.0) 470 Georgia 5.4 21 577 13.5 (54.0) 625 Table F.6. GDP and Fuel Taxes in The Baltic and the South-Caucasus States Country GDP/ Capita (US$) Fuel excise tax US$/liter Vehicles/ 1000 people Road Budget US$/km Estonia 3410 Petrol: 0.22 380 2840 Diesel: 0.16 Latvia 2860 Petrol: 0.27 ($47m) 260 Diesel: 0.22 Lithuania 2900 Petrol: 0.27 ($64m) 320 Diesel: 0.22 Armenia 520 Petrol: 0.185 610 Petrol: 0.135 95 540 (US$4.2) 50 470 Diesel: 0.05 Georgia F.5.1. Armenia 590 Petrol: 0.09 Diesel: 0.05 67 6250 ($135m) Diesel: 0.005 Azerbaijan 3150 (US$11.2) 60 625 (US$13.5) AR’s budget for 2001 was sharply reduced since the Ministry of Finance assumed that the funds available from the World Bank’s Transport Project Credit and from the U.S. based Lincy Foundation would provide an adequate level of financing for maintenance of the national road network. Subsequently, the Ministry of Finance made available AMD 707 million from privatization funds to AR for this purpose, but most of this money (AMD 540 million) had to be used for periodic maintenance of a road leading to an historic monument in the northern part of the country. Table F.7. Road construction, reconstruction and maintenance outlays in Armenia in millions of USD 1988-2000 Source: Armenian MOTC reply to the seminar questionnaire, 2002 Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 All investments 90.6 106.0 110.0 23.0 6.5 5.4 1.5 4.2 7.4 7.4 11.6 12.3 6.2 New construction 7.2 7.0 12.5 3.0 1.5 0.5 - of which: Reconstruction 9.7 10.0 15.0 11.0 0.5 3.5 2.0 2.6 2.8 2.5 Repair- maintenance 73.3 89.0 82.5 9.0 6.5 5.4 1.5 2.2 3.4 5.4 9. 9.4 4.2 AR’s operating budget for the year 2002 is only AMD 800 million, and therefore IDA has reduced the road work program to about USD 5.5 million so that some of the counterpart funds can be made available for badly needed routine maintenance. If the Government is able to increase the budget to the previously agreed AMD 2 billion level, then the original work program will be restored. The reduced work program for 2002 of about USD 5.5 million will leave about USD 7.0 million remaining to be implemented in 2003, assuming that the Government does not provide more financing for the program this year. Designs for all of the works have been completed, but will need to be updated to take into account additional deterioration. AR’s own budget will be used entirely for winter maintenance (AMD 760 million) and for maintenance of the Pushkin Tunnel (AMD 40 million), with nothing for routine maintenance from AR’s own budget unless additional funding is made available. The Lincy Foundation has greatly increased the size of its road rehabilitation program. In Spring 2002, the total program for the Armenian road network was USD 73.4 million, plus USD 14.0 million that has been made available for Yerevan city streets. The road improvements include the mountain road from Yeghegnadzor to Martuni, and the parallel road from Yerevan to Gyumri. The road component also includes the replacement of several railway bridges, including the long span near Alaverdi that is about 100 years old. Lincy has told the Government that all of these funds must be spent by the end of 2003, and no funds will be released after this date. 68 There is a need to develop a program for providing an adequate level of financing for road maintenance in 2004 and beyond, when IDA and Lincy financing will no longer be available. A condition of the Transport Project Credit is that the Government will make a minimum USD 16 million equivalent available for road maintenance by 2004, which is substantially higher than the present budget level. The program of institutional strengthening for AR will consist of further improvement of the data bank and the Pavement Management System (PMS), continued work on the technical standards, and implementation of improved quality control methodology. The work on technical standards would consist of following the similar EU funded work in Russia and adapting its results in Armenia. Quality control improvements would be carried out internally in AR, supported by training for AR road works supervisors designed and delivered together with the international supervision consultant. A Plant Pool of road works equipment was created under the completed Highway Project, and it is now operating as a joint stock company under the jurisdiction of the MOTC. It has experienced financial problems due to the low rate of equipment utilization, as the contractors have found the rental rates too high and prefer to use their own equipment wherever possible. In 2002, the contractors are required to use the Plant Pool equipment where relevant for all types of works, including routine, periodic and winter maintenance. It is expected that on this basis, the utilization rate will be greatly improved. F.5.2. Azerbaijan In Azerbaijan, road financing had been provided through a Road Fund until around year 2000. The Ministry of Finance controlled the Road Fund. The most important source of revenue to the Road Fund was the fuel excise tax, contributing 87 percent of the total revenues. The Road Fund has recently been abolished, however, and Azeravtoyol’s (the road administration) budget now is provided from the central Government budget. (World Bank’s project document on Azerbaijan Highway Project: http://www.worldbank.org/pics/pid/az40716.txt) Azeravtoyol’s budget for 2001 was reportedly at the level of AZM 53 billion, equivalent to USD 11.0 million. The 2002 budget is AZM 56 billion, equivalent to USD 11.7 million. This is slightly less than the USD 12.0 million specified in the Credit Agreement with IDA. The budget includes AZM 14 billion for the improvement of part of the Baku-Alyat road section, to be carried out by Azeravtoyol. The total road budget, including road maintenance for Baku and Nakhichevan, is AZM 75 billion. The counterpart financing for the Project is included in a separate budget that is additional to these amounts. A pending World Bank road project of the Shemkir-Gazakh road section contains a terms of reference for the institutional strengthening (technical assistance) of the Azerbaijan road administration Azeravtoyol. 69 Azeravtoyol will receive a study of road user charges and the preparation of a Road Safety Plan will be implemented with the assistance of the consultant selected to carry out the institutional strengthening contract. Competitive bidding is applied at least in more substantial road projects. While the Azerbaijan Government had previously wanted the Shemkir-Gazakh section to be prepared for bidding as a single contract, it now prefers that this section be divided into four sections, all to be bid at one time. The division into four sections will make it more possible for local contractors to qualify as prime contractors for these works. IDA has no objection to this change. F.5.3. Georgia The funds available to the Georgian State Department for Roads (SDRG) for road maintenance are connected to a Road Fund. The funds available for SDRG have steadily declined each year since 1999. This development is not in line with the IDA credit terms for road projects, especially since overall Government revenues have been increasing, as noted in the Table F.8. Table F.8. Georgian Road Financing in GEL million 1999 (actual) Road Fund Revenues Less Obligations (counterpart, debt repayment) Funds Available for Road Maintenance Required to meet Credit Obligation* Shortfall 2000 (actual) 2001 (actual) 2002 (estimated) 42,592 32,200 38,756 5,475 42,300 14,203 42,592 32,200 33,281 28,097 42,592 46,340 52,178 57,395 14,140 18,897 29,298 * Increase in Total Revenues for 2000 was 8.8%, for 2001 12.6%, and for 2002 is estimated at 10.0%. Decisive actions need to be taken to remedy the situation. Apart from problems with loan arrangements, the result is that Georgia is not able to provide even a minimum amount of maintenance of the road network. As shown in Table F.8., financing for SDRG’s road maintenance operations in calendar year 2000 fell below the level required meeting credit obligations. Funds available for SDRG’s road maintenance operations in 1999 were GEL 36.1 million. This was reduced to GEL 21.1 million in 2000 in part because the fuel excise taxes that were normally paid into the Road Fund were paid instead into general revenues for the last part of the year. In addition to GEL 6.0 million made available in 2000 for expenses incurred by SDRG in 1999 for which funds were not available, for a total of GEL 27.13 million. As overall Government revenues increased by 8.9 percent in 2000 compared to 1999, 70 the SDRG budget should have been at least GEL 39.3 million to comply with the terms of the Credit Agreement. The total amount estimated to be available for road maintenance activities in 2001 is estimated to fall to GEL 11.14 million, plus GEL 4.3 million for debts incurred in 2000, for a total of GEL 15.4 million. This figure is based on estimated collections for the Road Fund of GEL 41.9 million, reduced by allocations for Adjaria, the repayment of principal and interest to the Ministry of Finance for funds made available from the previous IDA Credit, and a portion of the counterpart financing. Table F.9. Road construction, reconstruction and maintenance outlays in Georgia in millions of USD 1988-2000 Source: Georgian MOTC reply to the seminar questionnaire, 2002 Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 All investments 198,2 240,7 167,2 74,4 27,7 7,3 0,8 4,8 28,4 19,9 27,3 19,9 13,4 New construction and Reconstruction 73,1 55,3 60,6 44,2 16,9 1,1 4,4 3,6 1,9 1,1 of which: Repairmaintenance 125,1 185,4 106,6 30,2 10,8 7,3 0,8 4,8 27,3 24,0 23,7 18,0 12,3 credit 2,9 2,4 EU Grant 1,1 1,3 A time-series of Road construction, reconstruction and maintenance outlays is shown in Table F.9. It shows clearly the dramatically reduced outlays after 1991, which have resulted in a substantial backlog of road works. F.6. Road transport services F.6.1. Freight transport services Before the independence of Azerbaijan, the road transport State Concern (now: Azerautonagliyyat) had under its subordination 200 enterprises, with the total fleet of 25000 goods vehicles, buses and taxi-cars. According to Azerbaijan State Statistical Committee about 1,000 registered establishments were engaged in cargo transportation and storage in 2001. About 39% of them are public enterprises, 47% belong to private sector, 5% are mixed and 8% are completely foreign establishments. 71 Azerautonagliyyat has given up its commercial activity and focuses exclusively on the regulatory functions. All its operative entities have been privatized, which created a large number of small firms engaged in road transport. However, the lack of experience, modern equipment and adequate finance pulled most of the firms out of the market. Currently about 50 transport firms are actually functioning in the country. From the beginning of 1991, vehicle fleet renewal was suspended, average fleet age was increasing each year. Due to the financial difficulties, fleet was not maintained properly and its deterioration continued until 1996. In 1996 a decision was taken to separate operational functions and to decentralize all transport enterprises while limiting governmental functions to the implementation of integrated transport policy in road transport. During 1996-1999 all transport enterprises were either privatized, or transformed into joint stock companies. Simultaneously, a legal and regulatory basis for market-based transport activities was taking shape. As part of the process, the Transport Law of The Republic of Azerbaijan was issued. In 1997 Azerbaijan introduced a permit system, which regulates international road transport in the republic. In 1998 a Licensing System on Transport activities was introduced, which regulates inter-city and inter-State (internal) transport, and freight forwarding activities. According to Azerautonagliyyat, the share of Azerbaijani transport companies in the total volume of transported goods from and to the territory of Azerbaijan was only 1.5% up to 1999, indicating that their competitiveness in international transport has been low. This is partly because of the lack of vehicles and equipment that fulfill high international requirements. In Georgia, the provision of road transport services required licensing up to the year 1999. The Act on entrepreneurial licensing, adopted in 1999, does not require the licensing for Road transport activities. In 1998, however, a mandatory system of certification on transport services was established. The Georgian Law on State governance and regulation in the sphere of transport and communications adopted in 2002 defines the role of the MOTC as the state body for performing the state governance and those of modal Administrations as regulatory bodies in their respective transport mode. Road Transport undertakings have to pay regulatory fees to the Road Transport Administration. An amount and payment procedure of the Fee is defined by the Order of MOTC, subject to the adoption as a legislative act. According to the Georgian MOTC, 90% of road transport industry is privatised and 10% is state-owned in 2002. According to Georgian legislation fees on freight and passenger transport are set by the carrier without any Governmental intervention. Government is regulating only the inter-urban public transport tariffs. Vehicle fees for crossing the Georgian border and fees for overweight units are shown in Attachment F.1. 72 F.6.2. Long-distance passenger services An extensive intercity bus service is the principal mode of intercity travel in Azerbaijan. Buses connect Baku and most other major cities, and there are also bus connections to Turkey and Tbilisi. In Armenia, long-distance buses service the major centers of population and most areas in the republic including the locations that trains do not serve. Because fuel is expensive, bus fares tend to be relatively expensive. In Azerbaijan, international and inter-city passenger transport are operated by comparatively new buses, complying with safety requirements, on the determined itinerary and strictly according to time-tables. At night-time (24:00-05:00) International and inter-city passenger transport is forbidden. International passenger transport between the Azerbaijan and Russia, Georgia, and Ukraine are operated on a bilateral basis. In 1997, the State Concern Azerautonagliyyat initiated the construction of a modern Bus Station in Baku which is now operational. The second phase of the construction of the Station will be completed shortly. In Georgia, most intercity travel is done by train, but bus lines run from inland cities to the coast during summer months. The buses are fairly reliable, but not too comfortable. Routes link most major towns in the country and run regularly between Tbilisi and regional centers within the country, as well as to Turkey, Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. Long-distance bus services are predominantly run by private companies in South Caucasus states, and the bus companies can apply market-based rates. F.7. Urban transport Urban bus and trolley services are offered by local administration in major towns, as are the subway or metro services available in the capitals. Only a limited number of private companies are engaged in urban bus services. This is partly because, generally speaking, no coherent policies for Public Service Obligations exist. The municipalities set ticket prices, and cost recovery on ticket income is generally very low, and does not allow for full depreciation and equipment renewal. As a consequence, lack of funds for maintenance, spare parts and new equipment is a pervasive problem in each of the three South Caucasus States. Public transportation in Tbilisi is reasonably priced and generally quite reliable. Most other urban centers in Georgia also have extensive bus and tram systems. While the fares are low, so is the level of maintenance, and reliability is not high. 73 Box 1. Urban Transport problems in Baku, Azerbaijan In the Municipality of Baku, the Transport Department of City Executive Authorities is responsible for the transport policy in the city of Baku. Transport Department has at his disposal 9 bus enterprises, tramway and trolley bus depots. From 1991 to 1996 urban transports fleet was reduced due to the lack of financial sources to purchase new vehicles. From the year 1997 onwards, private operators were admitted to operate city bus lines. In year 2002, 348 bus lines, 3 tramway lines and 4 trolley-bus lines are operated. Currently, 2,700 private buses are operating on existing city bus lanes, which comprises more than 90% of total number of buses. Most of these vehicles are small and medium -size buses. In 1998, the Japanese International Agency for Co-operation conducted a study on the "City transport infrastructure development project proposal". A subsequent study, including a technical feasibility assessment for priority projects, was carried out by the Japanese party in co-operation with Baku Municipality during September 2000 - February 2002. Its findings were presented on a seminar in Baku on 26-27 February, 2002. The final report is forthcoming. The project produced a Transport System Development Master Plan for Baku for the period up to 2020, including feasibility studies for 45 priority projects with total cost of USD 1.2 billion. These include: 1. Introducing for operation in the center-city large-size busses - 483 units. (IRR -19,1%), alleviating congestion in the center and reducing air pollution levels. 2. Reconstruction of tramway network (IRR -16,1%), reducing of CO and NOx emissions. 3. Improvement of narrow sections of the roads. (IRR -12%- 116%) 4. Implementation of Road Traffic Central Management System. Results: Reduction of CO and NOx emissions, and fuel consumption, and alleviation of congestion in Baku center. 5 and 6. Improvement of the interconnections on the square of "20 January" and metro Station "Azizbecov". Despite that the introducing of large-size Buses has a low profitability ratio, and reconstruction of tramway network is not financially feasible under the current conditions, it was recommended to start the implementation of these projects immediately, in order to improve mobility, eliminate congestion, improve environmental parameters in the city. The most acute problem with the implementation of these projects is finance. Recommended way is to attract financial aid from donor countries, long term credits from international banks and Funds. Based on the presentation at the Tbilisi Seminar on April 18-19, 2002 by the Deputy-Head of Public Transport Department of Baku Municipality In addition, the need to maintain a viable public transport system is confronted with the rapid growth in car ownership and traffic. This development, together with aging urban transport fleet with high level of emissions contributes to a significant air pollution problem at least in the major cities in the region. The private sector is offering the taxi services and the widespread and efficient minibus services. The latter services have evolved into regular lines covering large parts of major cities as well as smaller towns as a form of urban transport. In Azerbaijan, the bus system is widely considered the best way to get around in the cities. There are many city buses in Baku and in other major towns. It proves faster 74 than the train and also much safer. The fares for local bus ride are low, generally about USD 0.07, but given the purchasing power the scope to raise them is very limited. The minibus services are well developed and affordable. There is also a modest subway system in Baku (See Box 1.). In Armenia, buses and minivans offer the most reliable form of transportation. There is a small metro system in Yerevan, but it is quite limited and not very reliable. The financial needs to upgrade the metro system are very high compared to its traffic potential and potential for revenue generation. Also the trolley buses still run in Yerevan but prove very unreliable due to lack of maintenance and sporadic disruptions in electricity supply. In the Georgian capital Tbilisi, there is a small underground metro, buses, trolleys and a well-developed minibus network. The metro is a three-line system that runs from 6a.m. until 11p.m. The service is efficient for daily business use, and it connects with bus/tram lines to reach every corner of the city. 75 G. Railways The three countries’ railways are predominantly freight carriers as shown in Table G.1. Azerbaijan has the largest passenger and freight volumes of the three with 5,770 million ton-km and 493 million passenger-km. Transport work in Armenia is only 345 million ton-km and 47 million passenger-km. The size of the staff is large compared to the level of transport performance. As shown in Table The three states share the same problems of overage rolling stock and the poor condition of track. Operated as State Railways, they have also had difficulties to adjust to new demand patterns, both commodity and direction. The level of management skills should also be raised in order to increase the operational efficiency of the railways. Table G.1. Statistical data on South Caucasus states railways in 2000 Source: UIC at: http://www.uic.asso.fr/d_stats/online/synth2000.xls Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Country area in thousands of km² Population, millions Population density, inhabitants/km² 29.8 3.5 118.1 86.6 7.7 89.3 69.7 5.0 71.3 Length of lines worked, km of which double track or more, km Total of electrified lines, km Locomotives (incl. Light Rail motor tractors) Railcars and multiple unit sets Railcars and railcar trailers Railway's own wagons Average staff in thousands change from 1999 to 2000 in per cent 842 0 784 181 28 225 4,050 4.9 N/A 2,116 803 1,270 573 77 929 22,644 29.2 11.2 % 1,562 288 1,544 393 84 1078 16,859 15.8 0.0 % Train performance, millions of km N/A 11.3 7.3 Passenger carried, millions change from 1999 to 2000 1.1 N/A 4.3 4.9 % 2.3 19.8 % Passenger-km, millions change from 1999 to 2000 Tons carried, millions change from 1999 to 2000 47 N/A 1.4 493 16.8 % 15.9 8.7 % 453 27.6 % 11.5 21.1 % 345 5,770 3,912 Ton-km carried, millions 76 Table G.2. shows a general characterization of railways’ market positioning and operating profile. The South Caucasus railways could be positioned as a “ultraconservative” railway, where the ownership of both rolling stock and trains as well as a multitude of support activities is seen as a core function. Until very lately, railways have also had an important employment function. Table G.2. Schematic characterization of railways’ market positioning, rail operators’ profiles, core functions and supporting activities Source: Brehmer and Ojala (1997) Market Characterization Company Profile Core Function (Corporate Mission) Mobility Mobility Corporation To Provide Mobility in Time and Space Travelling and Service ”Modern” Railway To Provide Rail Service Travelling and Transport ”Traditional” Railway To Operate Trains and Tracks Passenger and Freight Movement A=>B ”Ultra Conservative” Railway To own Trains and Tracks as well as other activities related to these Employment as a goal Supporting Activities Only what is necessary, and in whichever way it is best provided These are arranged according to market needs and company resources (with respect to the regulatory constraints) ”All other activities” (Personnel, Locomotives, Wagons, Traffic related material, Real estate, Marketing, PR) Makes no distinction Between supporting and Core activities Based on the presentations in the Tbilisi seminar, the following regulatory and administrative “checklist” for the region’s railways could be presented The railways operate under the country’s commercial law. Board of Directors has broad representation. The Board of Directors fires and hires the GM. Annual public audits. Annual business plans. A strategic medium term plan. Continuous development and improvement of management systems. Public Service Obligations (PSOs) priced at full cost. PSOs replaced by commercially viable services (trucks, buses). Gradual privatization, start by selling off non-core interests. 77 G.1. Armenia According to UIC, 842 km of rail lines were operated in 2000. The official figure for the full length of railways (excluding industrial lines) is 883 km. The volumes of both freight and passenger movements are small in view of its potential, exploitation of which is severely hampered by the political problems with neighboring countries. Of four international rail connections (via Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey) only the one to Georgia, giving access to the Black Sea ports of Poti and Batumi, is presently in operation, due to the trade embargoes imposed by Azerbaijan and Turkey. After the establishment of the Republic of Armenia, Armenian Railways has faced diverse urgent problems in order to maintain the existing rail system. The operating environment for the railways deteriorated dramatically during the 1990s: between 1989 and 1999 the Armenian railways lost about 93 percent of its traffic volume (Table G.3.). The first task was a creation of independent railway authorities, in charge of management, maintenance and procurement of railways. Armenian railways (ARD) were restructured in 1998, when they were divided in three State Closed Joint Stock Companies: "Rail freight", "Rail rolling stock", and “Rail infrastructures". In parallel, The World Bank had allocated USD 15 million for the repair and maintenance of the rail track and rolling stock and re-equipment of depots. Subsequently, the Armenian Railways remained operational. None of the operating companies have a Board of Directors that would control the companies. According to ARD, all powers for controlling the shares of the Joint Stock Companies were in the hands of the Minister. However, appointing a Board including representatives of the private sector would be an effective means of keeping better touch with the needs of ARD’s customers. Such a Board is explicitly allowed and in some cases required by Armenian legislation but it has proved difficult to create one for railways. The Armenian railways are predominantly a freight operator. In 2001, the freight revenue was estimated at USD 8.7 million compared to USD 0.34 million from passenger traffic. The revenue of the three companies covered their current expenses. Government of Armenia deems a close co-operation between the railways of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia especially important and also attaches a great emphasis to regional co-operation, including the co-operation with Turkey and Iran as the pre- condition for the increase of traffic, and in particular for transit flows. The Government would like the Armenian railways to enhance its competitiveness towards road transport and to increase railways share to at least 70% of total cargo turnover, and at least 60% of domestic ore transports. Direct rail connection with Turkey and Iran railway should become the main mode for transit transport. Despite financial losses, suburban passenger transport should continue, on the condition that losses will be covered from state budget. Means to improve the profitability of railways include, but are not limited, to the following: (i) improvement of management system, ensuring independence of joint 78 stock companies, (ii) improvement of transport services and reduction of energyconsumption, (iii) diversification of services, (iv) application of flexible tariffs, (v) creation of fair and even conditions for all freight forwarders and shippers while providing transport services, and (vi) implementation of procurement only on the basis of tendering. The outlays for rail infrastructure maintenance have fallen dramatically since 1991. This is illustrated by the Cost of maintaining 1 km of rail infrastructure in AMD million: In 1991: In 1999: In 2000: In 2001: 21.30 1.62 2.05 1.37 (42,6 thousand USD) ( 2,96 thousand USD) ( 3,62 thousand USD) ( 2,41 thousand USD) According to Armenian MOT, the integration of Armenian railways with neighboring countries and the development of railways system could involve the following new railway connections: (i) the link to the North involving north territories of Armenia and providing access to Georgian ports Poti and Batumi, (ii) and the link to the South (Iran) requiring the construction of 449.6 km of new rail tracks. It is, however, not clear whether these connections would be viable. From the operational point-of-view, the best connection is via Nakhichevan. Table G.3. Transport work in Passenger and cargo transport by rail in Armenia 19892000 Source: Armenian MOTC reply to the seminar questionnaire, 2002 year Passenger Transport 1,000 passenger/km Goods transport, million ton/km 1989 380,500 5,120.5 1990 315,500 4,884.0 1991 319,759 4,179.0 1992 445,989 1,280.0 1993 435,196 450.1 1994 100,107 377.6 1995 98,206 425.9 1996 84,200 351.0 1997 84,000 381.1 1998 52,400 418.5 1999 46,400 323.9 2000 46,800 353.6 79 Other considerations by the MOT include the reconstruction of rail-ferry connection "Caucasus", a Container block train between Yerevan and Poti, establishing Armenian rail company offices in the ports of Poti, Novorossisk and Taganrog, the rehabilitation of Airum border station, and the possibility to introduce fast trains in the main directions- Yerevan-Erasx, Yerevan-Giumri and Yerevan-Sevan. Installation works of the optical-fiber cable alongside the whole rail track is being carried out satisfactorily, and it will give Armenian railways a possibility to introduce modern signaling and communication systems on railways. Completion of installation is expected in July 2002. The labor force in Armenian Railways was reduced by 252, from 4,445 in 2000 to 4,193 in 2001. The average revenue for passenger service increased by 25 percent from $0.006 per passenger-km in 2000 to $0.007 per passenger-km in 2001. This, coupled with a 2 percent growth in traffic volume, increased the passenger revenue from AMD 144 million ($0.27 million) to AMD 190 million ($0.34 million). The average revenue for freight service increased by 7 percent from $0.024 per tonkm in 2000 to $0.025 per ton-km in 2001, thanks to the pricing flexibility introduced in September 2001. Instead of a uniform rate of $0.024 per ton-km, domestic freight rates are now based on cost-based pricing, resulting in a growth of domestic freight by nearly 7 percent, from 333,000 tons in 2000 to 355,000 tons in 2001. Domestic freight accounts for about one fourth of the total freight traffic. As a result, freight revenue went up 7 percent from AMD 4,517 million ($8.4 million) to AMD 4,822 million ($8.7 million), despite a 3 percent reduction in freight volume. Being a very short haul carrier, the freight operator in Armenia is facing substantial competition with road transport, and the reduced tariff structure will impact positively on the improvement of the financial performance. The railways are current for their financial obligations, with most of the outstanding receivables and payables limited to internal transactions among their own three companies. As stipulated in the Armenian Transport Law, starting January 1, 2002, losses from passenger transport services will be covered from the state budget the instead of a cross-subsidy from the freight service. ARD requested a subsidy of AMD 300 million (USD 0.54 million) for the year 2002 to compensate for the loss making commuter services into and out of Yerevan, but it has not been included in the 2002 government budget. The requested amount was much smaller than the cost of passenger operations calculated by the assigned consultant during the World Bank project preparation. According to the World Bank experience, the government should allow pricing freedom to freight operators. The long-term dependence on cross subsidies from freight to passenger services forces rail freight rates to be held above costs, damaging the competitiveness of rail transport. 80 G.2. Azerbaijan There are 2,116 kilometers of railways. Much of the rail track and rolling stock is in need of repair or replacement. The railway network has no repair facilities although a USD 20.2 million loan from the EBRD will be used for substantial reconstruction of the railway network. The main source of income is freight transport, which is operated at a profit. Passenger services have been operated at a loss, which amounted to USD 16.4 million in 2000 (Table G.4.). Azerbaijan Dovlet Demir Yolu (ADDY, the State Railways of Azerbaijan) operates as an independent economic entity and reports through its Director General to the Council of Ministers. ADDY has considerable commercial independence, and the authority to enter into contracts and incur debt denominated in foreign currencies. The rail network in Azerbaijan consists of three international routes radiating from Baku to Russia, Georgia, Armenia and Iran. Since the conflict with Armenia, some 260 kilometers of the network are not in operation. ADDY is predominantly a freight railway, with freight trains comprising 90 per cent of total traffic unit-kilometers operated, which are dominated by the transportation of oil and refined oil products. Freight traffic is increasing and is expected to reach 16.5 million tons by 2003, most of which will be on the Trans- Caucasian line. The biggest increase is in transit traffic from Kazakhstan. The construction of an oil transshipment sea terminal and oil filling station in Diubendi in 1998 has had a substantial impact. In 2001, the terminal handled 2.5 million tons of oil that was transported by rail to Batumi port, for subsequent transport to Europe. According to ADDY’s responses to the seminar questionnaire in 2002, the total length of main track is 2,932 km, and its operating length is 2,116 km. Of this, 815 km are double-track lines and 1,272 km is electrified (60%), and 845 km (40%) is operated by diesel locomotives. Half of the lines, i.e. 1,126 km are equipped with auto blocking systems, 476 kmwith central controlling system, and the rest of the lines with half-automatic blocking system. There are 176 stations, of which Baldjari and Shirvan are large automatic marshalling yards, 12 stations are equipped with container yards with appropriate equipment, and 3 stations are processing large-size containers. The Railroads’ long term development program up to 2010 has the following key points: (i) reconstruction of Locomotive depots in Baku and Baladjari, (ii) reconstruction of existing signaling and communication systems on the section BakuBeiuk-Kasik, (iii) reconstruction of Baku rolling stock depot, (iv) reconstruction of Baladjari washing station, (v) construction of the factory for the production of 250 thousand units of concrete sleepers, and (vi) reconstruction of Baku wagon Repair factory ADDY’s strategy is to try to rebuild its traffic base by promoting its international links, particularly to Russia and the Black Sea, and to improve the standard of its infrastructure. ADDY’s priority corridor is the Trans-Caucasian line, where traffic is 81 increasing most rapidly. However, lack of funds in the 1990s resulted in deterioration of the track. In December 1999 the EBRD signed a project with ADDY which aims to enhance the physical and economic viability of the Trans- Caucasian railway route, to improve the efficiency and environmental management of the oil tanker wagon fleet, and to support commercialization of the railway. (EBRD 2001c) Table G.4. Statistics on rail passenger and goods transport in Azerbaijan 1995-2000 Source: Azerbaijan Railways reply to the seminar questionnaire, 2002 1995 Cargo turnover. Million ton-km 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2,409 2,788 3,515 4,702 5,052 5,770 Passenger turnover. Million pas. km 791 558 489 533 422 493 Number of Employees. Thousand 34.7 28.8 28.0 25.5 35.9 30.3 Total length of rail track, km 2,123 2,123 2,117 2,117 2,116 2,116 of which: electrified double track, km 1,276 1,276 1,271 1,270 1,270 1,270 Number of Cargo wagons, units 29,198 28,335 25,438 25,872 25,659 25,659 875 875 870 815 775 775 16,783 16,725 10,396 11,505 11,552 11,552 Number of Passenger Cars, units Number of Containers, units Goods transport revenue, USD million 38.2 Losses from passenger transport, USD million 16.4 Investments, USD million 2.5 1.9 of which: new construction, USD million 0.2 0.2 of which Cargo wagons, USD million 2.3 1.7 State budget funded investment, USD million 1.0 0.3 11.0 20.0 8.4 13.3 4.1 11.0 6.7 4.3 2.3 1.4 The EBRD project included major repairs to the Balajari Wagon Washing Plant, and the introduction of measures to commercialize ADDY. The project consisted of a USD 20.2 million loan and grant funding of USD 8 million from the EU-TACIS program. A condition of the EBRD’s involvement in the financing of the investments obligated ADDY to implement a specific Environmental Management Plan for the Balajari Wagon Washing Plant, the most environmentally significant component of the project. The plan outlined a number of specific actions to reach regulatory 82 compliance in the areas of air emissions, waste management, materials handling and storage, as well as energy conservation, waste reduction, occupational health and safety, and emergency response. (EBRD 2001c) Baku Locomotive depot carries out major-repair works of electric engines, electric locomotives and trains. Baladjari and Ushmilini locomotive depots carry out major repair of diesel locomotives. Major repair of rolling stock is carried out in Giandja depot. Refrigerated wagons are repaired in Aliyati depot, tank wagons in Baku and containers in Kishly. Azerbaijan Railways has 769 passenger cars, of which 473 are. Average service age of the cars is about 30 years. Financial conditions of railways does not allow the purchase of new passenger cars, therefore the only justified possibility was establishment of local major repair depots for passenger cars. Therefore several repair shops of Baku Depot were reconstructed to handle passenger wagons, and some new shops were also constructed. This enabled the railways to resume international passenger traffic and today it operates routes from Baku to Moscow, Kiev, Rostov, Kharkov, Astrakhan, and Tbilisi. Special local trains serve the routes from Baku to Akstafa, Balocani, and Gianfdja. Ticket-service is completely computerized. Azerbaijan has entered into bilateral rail transport agreements with Russia, Uzbekistan (1996) and Ukraine (1997). Azerbaijan Railways is a member of UIC. G.3. Georgia Georgia’s fully electrified railway network covers 1,583 kilometers of track. The main route runs across the country, starting from Baku in Azerbaijan, via Tbilisi to Samtredia and then on to Batumi and Poti ports, as well as into Russia via Sukhumi. A new line is planned between Tbilisi and northern Turkey, which could further link to a connection between Armenia and Iran. Table G.5. shows volumes for cargo transport volumes and passenger traffic in 1997-1999. Table G.5. Passenger and cargo volumes by rail in Georgia 1997-1999 Source: http://web.sanet.ge/gic/transpor.htm Annual volume of cargo transported Annual number of passengers Unit 1997 1998 1999 Million tons Million passengers 7.23 1.89 8.5 2.3 9.4 1.87 For passengers, rail travel in both the west and the north is difficult due to the conflict in Abkhazia. Rail travel in other parts of the country is possible, but services are sporadic to many destinations. Trains are the best way to travel throughout the country, in spite of relatively modest level of service. 83 G.4. Rail infrastructure maintenance The EU is financing the implementation of the Caucasian railway telecommunication network, covering installation of underground optical cable in all three Caucasian states, to allow for a direct connection with Europe (as part of the Trans Asia-Europe cable running from Frankfurt to Shanghai). Part of the capacity of the so-called Caucasus Optical Cable will be used by Armenian Railways to its operations and to increase traffic. The remaining capacity will be made available to private operators, improving the Armenian telecom market. The World Bank is financing this project. The World Bank transport project in Armenia includes financing for the rehabilitation of tracks and bridges, and for upgrading the locomotive fleet. It is also contributing to institutional strengthening of the Armenian Railways and the companies responsible for infrastructure management, and freight and passenger services. In July 2000 a new rail cargo terminal was opened in Yerevan, following modernization financed by the EU within the framework of the TRACECA program, with the participation of the government. The terminal is expected to contribute to an increase in transit freight from Iran to Russia and on to Europe. The EU provided USD 1 million for equipment, while the government financed construction work for USD 0.25 million. G.5. Regional Railway Developments The Trans-Caucasian railway is a key link in the main TRACECA transport corridor between the landlocked countries of Central Asia and the west. The Trans-Caucasian rail link extends from Baku on the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea ports of Poti and Batumi. The railway consists of 924 kilometers of electrified track, of which 499 kilometers are in Azerbaijan. (ESCAP 2001) G.5.1. International rail agreements Many countries in Europe and some in Asia (for example, the Islamic Republic of Iran) are parties to the Convention Concerning the International Transport of Goods by Rail (COTIF), Bern 1980, which replaces the traditional national customs document with the International Consignment Note (CIM) established under COTIF. The COTIF Convention is valid in most European countries, as well as in the states of the Middle East and Africa, which are connected with the European railway network via rail or via ferry. The Islamic Republic of Iran is also a party to the COTIF Convention. Meanwhile, the member countries of the Organization for Railways Cooperation (OSJD), including among others, countries in the Caucasus and Central Asian regions as well as the Russian Federation, have developed and are using the system known as the Agreement on International Railway Freight Communications (SGMS) for the same purpose. At border points separating neighboring railway organizations which are signatory to either of the above convention or agreement, the waybill are rewritten from one 84 format to the other. Recognizing the impact of this situation on the efficiency of international movements by rail, both organizations are seeking ways to harmonize the existing procedures. In this respect, it is interesting to note that the Russian Federation has spearheaded efforts to define a new transit document, the so-called GPBRT bill of lading, relating to the operation of container block-trains between Germany and the Russian Federation through Belarus and Poland under the ‘Ostwind’ container services running between Berlin and Moscow. Mainly bilateral agreements govern transit by road and/or rail vehicles at the borders and border stations between countries in the corridor. E 10 Kouvola Vainikkala Luzhaika UN/ECE AGC St Petersburg E International Railway Lines 31 December 2001 10 R U S S I A N A T I Tyumen F E D E R O N E (Yekaterinenburg) Sverdlovsk 10 E 20 Nizhniy Novgorod Vladimir C-E 20 E2 0 MOSKVA Kurgan E 20 C-E 30 Chelyabinsk Smolensk Krasnoye Krasnoyarsk Irkutsk Vladivostok E 20 C-E 30 Ryazan Ufa Novosibirsk Omsk Petropavlovsk Presnogor'kovka 50 E 95 E 99 Orsha E MINSK 20 B E L A R U S E Brjansk E 30 C-E 203 Magnitogorsk Kartaly Samara Kokchetav Kustanay 30 Kotchetovka E Gryazi Pavlodar Suzemka Zernovo Esil Atbasar Dzhaksy Voronezh Ozinki Orenburg E 30 Uralsk E3 AKMOLA Derzhavinsk 0 Ust-Kan Iletsk 1 KIEV E 50 E 30 Solovei Valuiki Fastov Karabutak I Kupyansk N E Lozovaya O E 95 O E 56 0 99 E E 95 C E 95 59 Shetpe Veseloe Gantiadi Burgas 720 E Dimitrovgrad Micurin Poti Chervlennaya Uzlovaya E 20 3 Alashankou Sary-Ozek C -E 50 E Taldy-Kurgan Khorgos 50 0 Chu Kungrad E 50 Fetisovo Kegen ALMATY Zhambyl Nukus G E O R G IA 0 50 Zhetybay E 95 1 E 99 -E Druzhba Burylbaytal 7 Kzyl-Orda Varna Kokpek BISHKEK Tyup Dasshaus E Kapikule E 70 Sivas Turkmenbashi B. E TU R KME N IS TAN Chardzhu R 70 Alyat ZE Malatya E Kapikoy E 70 Razi Mindjivan Meghri E 97 Iskenderun Sary-Tash Guzar Astara Gorgan Kamishli Murgab DUSHANBE ASHGABAT Mary 0 E7 C H I N A TAJ IKIS TAN Sherobod Tedjen S YRIAN Arab Republic Irkeshtam Jirgatal Karshi 97 Torugart Ayni 5 Gyzylarbat Lankaran Nusaybin Yenice Mersin E 97 Buchara Alat E 69 Samarkand Osh Kokand Khavast Dihzak Nawoy A T U R K E Y Imishli 7 E9 70 70 E Kalin E Naryn Andijan UZB EKIS TAN YEREVAN Kütahia K I R G I S T A N Chengeldy 7 BAKU ARMENIA A Z E R B A I J A N ANKARA E 70 59 Shymkent TASHKENT 5 E 59 E 97 Eskisehir Idjevan 69 Dilijan E Arya Uchkuduk Bekdash Yalama Kuba Ghazakh 3 Gandja Evlak Samsun Haydarpasa Istanbul E 74 Bakhty Novokazalinsk E 680 Balikesir Maikapshagai Taskesken Aktogay C-E 203 Ucharal 66 Kaspican 0 Bandirma Ayaguz Beineu Krasnodar E 70 N Balkhash Novorossiysk 72 A Mointy E 54 E T 9 Izmail Buzau 0 E 68 Karnobat E S Aralsk BUCURESTI E 562 Giurgiu Constanta Ruse Videle H Atyrau VA 57 K Astrakhan Reni 0 56 A 50 LD E E E 1 E 85 Ploiesti Galati Z Dzhezkazgan Odessa E Brasov A Makat Rostov-na-Donu Razdelnaya Kuchurgan CHISINAU Bendery K Georgiyevka Volgograd E 50 Krasnaya Krasnoarmeisk Mogila Donetsk/Yasinovataya Kvashino Uspenskaya E Taganrog 593 M Ungeny E 95 Iasi E 95 Kandagach Lougansk Debaltsevo Gukovo Dnepropetrovsk Pascani E 99 A E 391 R Ust-Kamenogorsk Karaganda Topoli 50 K Vadul Siret Vicsani Semipalatinsk Arkalyk Kharkov E 30 E U Aktyubinsk Khorugh Termis Gaudan Nizhiniy Panj Ishkashim Lyangar Sarakhs I R A Q I R A N Kushka AFG HAN IS TAN Main lines Secondary lines Gauge interchange station CYPRUS Figure G.1. The AGC network of railways in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Source: UN/ECE At regional level, the Inter-governmental Agreement on International North-South Transport Corridor signed in Saint Petersburg in September 2000 encompasses the common desire of the four signatories – India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Sultanate of Oman and Russian Federation – to develop transport linkages and services. However, 85 the agreement only covers the route from India and Oman by sea to and through the Islamic Republic of Iran and further on through the Caspian Sea and the Russian Federation. The corridor designation in the agreement does not cover the all-land routes going through the Caucasus area or the Central Asian region. However, the agreement may be an example to follow for the entire North-South Corridor. G.5.2. Trans-Asian Railway North-South Corridor In recent years there has been an upsurge of interest in the feasibility of rail container transport as a possible alternative to shipping between Northern Europe and the Persian Gulf with shipping connections to South and South-East Asia. In order to assess this corridor, ESCAP (2001) conducted a study to identify (i) all feasible rail and land-cum-sea routes connecting Northern Europe with the Persian Gulf through the Caucasus region, Central Asia and/or the Caspian Sea; (ii) The characteristics of these routes in terms of their lengths and the transit times they can offer, with due attention to average operating speeds as well as typical dwell times at border stations and transshipment points; and (iii) the possible presence of operational restrictions which might impede the smooth flow of goods along the routes. The different routes are shown in Figure G.2. Time comparison by sea or by either rail, or sea-cum-rail for movements between Northern Europe and the Persian Gulf with onward connections to South and South-East Asia is given in table G.5. Table G.5. Estimated transit times in the three route options of the Trans-Asian Railway North-South Corridor; in days Source: ESCAP 2001 Helsinki to: Sea (1) Rail (2) Land-cum-sea (3) Tehran 33.2 days 11.5 to 12 days 33.2 days Lahore 41.5 days 17 to 18.5 days 22 to 24 days New Delhi 32.1 days 18 to 20 days 25 to 27 days Bangkok 31.5 days Not applicable 33 to 35 days (1) With direct sea movements from Helsinki to Bandar Abbas, Karachi, Mumbai or Port Kelang. (2) Considering the only currently operational route through Central Asia. (3) All-rail to Bandar Abbas along currently operational route through Central Asia followed by sea transport from Bandar Abbas to Karachi, Mumbai or Port Kelang and rail journey from these ports to final destination. The above estimates show a distinct transit time advantage for rail over shipping, reflecting the actual differences in distances. 86 Figure G.2. Routes of the projected North-South Corridor of Trans-Asian Railway Source: UN/ESCAP 2001 However, at this point in time, caution must be exercised in the interpretation of these figures calculated on a series of optimistic assumptions. For example, as regards shipping, the 2-day dwell time in ports used in the calculation may be shorter than is actually the case. As regards rail, the times indicated consider unimpeded movements between countries, especially between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan, and between Pakistan and India. Meanwhile, landcum-sea transit times suffer from the absence of regular, direct services from Bandar Abbas to ports in South and SouthEast Asia. While there is no doubt that the rail and land-cum-sea options are likely to offer attractive transit times in future, much will have to be done to capitalize on this advantage in the fields of tariffs, services and facilitation. 87 H. Pipeline transport Pipeline transport is used for movement of fluids and gases as an integral of typically oil and gas extraction and refining. The transport economy of pipelines is based on large and stable quantities over relatively short and medium distances. In landlocked regions, the pipeline networks extend reach several thousand kilometers. Pipelines are capital-intensive fixed installations that are typically financed by and operated through exclusive contracts to a limited number of oil and gas companies. Pipeline transport is briefly discussed here since they create a large demand for rail, port and shipping services in the South Caucasus region. The issue of transit over Caspian oil and gas pipeline routes has wide economical and political implications beyond the three South Caucasus states. Competition over the routes for pipelines to carry Caspian oil and gas is fierce, as nations vie for the opportunity to earn from transit fees and infrastructure investment. Azerbaijans primary concern is to find a main export line that is both cost-effective and secure. Several routes are being considered in addition to the existing pipelines used by Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC25) during the “early oil” phase. The AIOC exports its early oil through two pipelines, a northern route through Russia and a western route through Georgia, with a combined initial design capacity of about 200,000 barrels per day (b/d). The northern route became operational at the end of 1997, and the western route in April 1999. However, shipments through the northern route were interrupted by pumping problems and the conflict in Chechnya, leading to rail transportation of 70,000 b/d around Chechnya from Dagestan to Stavropol, a Russian city on the northern side of Caucasus. The AIOC shipped about 100,000 b/d via the western route in 2000. Although several proposals have been made to expand the capacity of each of these routes, the AIOC expects production to peak at about 800,000 b/d within the next 15 years. Exporting the additional oil requires building additional oil export pipeline capacity in the order of 1 million barrels per day. The total revenue that Azerbaijan and the AIOC members can expect to generate varies with each route. Contributory factors include: the capacity or diameter of pipelines; estimated tariffs for transit through various countries; and the general cost of bringing each route on line, such as length, refurbishment required, amount of new pipe needed, building or refurbishing communications facilities, pumping stations, and upgrading of port facilities. The three most likely routes are: 1) through Russia to the Black Sea; 2) through Georgia to the Black Sea; and 3) through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean Sea at Ceyhan. There are other proposed pipelines routes, including one through Iran to the Persian Gulf, using the existing pipeline structure in Iran. However, US sanctions against Iran, which will be under review this summer, are standing in the 25 BP Amoco is the largest shareholder (34.2 per cent), followed by Lukoil (Russia), Unocal (USA), and SOCAR (Azerbaijan), each with a 10 per cent share. The remaining six international shareholders have 3.8 to 8.6 of shares. (EBRD 2001d) 88 way of this proposal. In any case, a regional pipeline and transit system centered on Azerbaijan is beginning to emerge. All export pipelines are effectively only open to the AIOC and SOCAR. All other Azerbaijan companies sell their oil domestically or export via rail using the services of Caspian TransCo, which SOCAR has designated as the purchaser of oil from Azerbaijan’s joint ventures as it is the only transportation company with available capacity. (Figure E.3.; EBRD 2001c and d) Figure E.3. Map of existing and proposed oil pipelines Source: EBRD 2001c 89 Oil is also currently being shipped across the Caspian from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan for further trans-shipment westwards. Chevron (US), the operator of the TengizChevroil Joint Venture, has contracted Caspian TransCo to load oil from its Tengiz field onto trains at a loading facility near Baku, to be shipped via pipeline and rail to the Georgian Black Sea port of Batumi. Shipping volumes have risen from 2,000 b/d in 1996 to an estimated 60,000 b/d in 2000. Caspian TransCo has also been working with the Azerbaijan government to overhaul and expand the oil terminal facilities at Dyubendi, 48 kilometers north of Baku, to allow for further increases. Additionally, Caspian TransCo has the exclusive right to use pipelines belonging to SOCAR, including the oil-loading facility near Baku. Azerbaijan has two major refineries, at Baku and Novo-Baku, known respectively as Azerneftyag and Azerneftyanadzhag. The Baku refinery has a capacity of 238,978 b/d, and the Novo-Baku refinery can process 202,830 b/d. However, both refineries have been running well below capacity, and overall refinery utilization averages 40 per cent. Azerbaijan is planning some upgrading at both refineries at an estimated cost of about USD 700 million. The US Trade and Development Agency will finance a USD 500,000 feasibility study for the upgrading of the Baku refinery. It is expected that minority interests in the two refineries will be put up for privatization as part of the second privatization program. It is also expected that the majority of Azerbaijan’s companies operating in the chemical and petrochemical industry, mostly located in Sumgait, will be privatized. (EBRD 2001c) 90 I. Ports and maritime transport Only Georgia has access to High Seas through its ports in the Black Sea, mainly Poti and Batumi. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is the only one having ports in the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea is directly connected to Russian’s extensive inland waterway system through e.g. rivers Volga/Don. Armenia is a completely landlocked country and does not have coastline of its own. However, Armenia has made an agreement with Russia to establish a special ferry link in the Black Sea, enabling Armenian cargoes to bypass the Abkhaz section of the Georgian railway, which is blocked by ethnic unrest. The ferry link will run from Georgia’s Poti port north along the coast to Novorossiysk in Russia, and will cost USD 6 million (EBRD 2001b). Sea and water cargo transportation has vital importance for Azerbaijan, especially when there are road and rail transport disruptions. Azerbaijan has direct maritime connections only with other Caspian littoral states (Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan). However, it can reach the high seas via the Volga- Don canal, or through Georgia by rail or road to the Black Sea. According to data gathered by ECMT, the transport work along inland waterways (i.e. the Caspian Sea) in Azerbaijan was 2.67 million ton-kilometers in 1997, 2.48 million in 1998, 4.74 million in 1999, and in 2000, it had reached 4.89 million ton-kilometers. Despite of the importance of shipping to Georgia and Azerbaijan, the number and size of shipping companies of these countries is small. The shipping companies in the two countries are mainly owned by the public sector. The main part of shipping services to the Georgian Black Sea Ports is taken care of by non-Georgian ships and shipping companies. The Georgian Shipping Company (GSC) was one of the six former Soviet Union’s entities engaged in maritime services in the Black Sea. Georgia is a small shipping nations. In 1992 the GSC had 44 vessels with about 1 million DWT. In 1999 it was restructured, and as a consequence, it was split into a number of smaller shipping companies. In Baku, the Caspian Sea Shipping Company is operating mainly with bulk and oil tonnage. In Azerbaijan, the state-owned Caspian Steamship Company (CSC) is virtually the only Azerbaijan operator in maritime transport. It operates cargo vessels between Baku and the Turkmen port of Turkmenbashi, where it transported 1.6 million tons of cargo in 1998. 1.5 million tons was transported to other Caspian Sea ports. In 1998 the Company transported 20,000 passengers between different ports in the Caspian. Baku International Sea Port is the largest port on the Caspian Sea. Its ferry terminal will be undergoing a major reconstruction supported by the EBRD with a USD 16.2 million loan. Once modernization of Baku port is complete, it will be able to handle 30 million tons of freight a year. The Caspian Sea provides vital transport links with other countries and is being used to ship oil until various pipeline projects are completed. 91 The Black Sea ports are of strategic importance, both for Georgia and for the region at large. The port of Poti handled about 3.4 million tons of cargo in 2001, which less than half of it capacity of 7 million tons a year. Another important Georgian port is Batumi, which has a freight capacity of 5 million tons. Port tariffs in both Poti and Batumi are approved by the MOT of Georgia. Since the Azerbaijan-Supsa oil pipeline was built almost all freight from the Caspian region now passes through Batumi and Poti. The oil terminal constructed at Supsa, close to Poti, handles oil deliveries through the Baku-Supsa pipeline. The Black Sea ports handle mainly bulk or semi-bulk cargoes, and the movement of unitized cargoes is very modest. According to ECMT data for the year 2000, the Georgian ports handled about 36,000 containers measured in TEU’s (Twenty feet equivalent units) with a gross tonnage of 391,000 tons. In the same year, only 4,700 containers were moved by rail, which indicates that most inland haulage of containers is taken care of by road transport. Both Azerbaijan and Georgia are members of IMO. There are also a number of bilateral agreements on maritime transport. For example, Azerbaijan has such agreements with Kazakhstan (1997), Romania (1997), Turkey (1997), Turkmenistan (1996), and Ukraine (2000). I.1. The Port of Baku26 in Azerbaijan In the Soviet era, Baku was the most important port on the Caspian Sea. Today it provides a key link in the transport chain connecting Western Europe with the Central Asian republics via the Black Sea ports of Georgia, on the TRACECA route. Baku International Sea Trading Port was formerly a department of the Caspian Sea Shipping Company (CSSC), which in the Soviet era was responsible for all maritime and associated landside operations in the Caspian. The Port was established as a separate entity in November 1994. The Port is state-owned, with operational and financial autonomy. There are four main operating units which generate revenues: the Main Cargo Terminal, the Ferry Terminal, the Oil Terminal, and Shipping Services (pilot service, tugboat services, dredging), plus administrative support departments (e.g. marketing, accounting). There are four terminals. The ferry terminal was constructed in 1963 with two berths which are in poor condition, as are the associated facilities (access ramps, link spans, paved areas, etc.). The dry cargo terminal in the main port comprises five principal berths, a ro-ro ramp and berthing facilities for port craft. These berths are also generally in poor condition but are not used as intensively. The timber terminal has not been used since it was flooded in 1996 by the rising sea level in the Caspian. The oil terminal is presently in an acceptable operating condition. A Two thirds of the total port traffic is crude oil, while oil products add a further 7 per cent. In 2001 it 26 Based on EBRD 2001 92 processed 2.6 million tons of oil mainly originating from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and transported to the Georgian Black Sea Ports. Dry cargo through the main port accounts for less than 3 per cent of total traffic. Ferry traffic peaked at about 5 million tons in 1986, before falling to a low of 360,000 tons in 1993. Since then it has enjoyed an annual growth rate of 19 per cent. In 2001, it handled 1.9 million tons of cargo in 30,800 rail wagons. The ferry service is operated by CSSC, which owns eight large ferries able to carry both rail wagons and road vehicles. Five of these vessels operate a service to the Port of Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan on the TRACECA corridor. The distance from Baku to Turkmenbashi is about 310 kilometers and the ferry crossing takes about 14 hours. There are on average eight sailings per week. In addition, in July 1999, a once-weekly, vehicleonly ferry service started to the Port of Aktau in Kazakhstan. EU-TACIS is involved in improvements to the ferry facilities at Aktau to permit more intensive operations. To improve the efficiency of port operations, increase profitability and establish greater commercial autonomy a EUR 20 million port development project was set up which includes rehabilitation of the ferry terminal, restructuring of the Port’s organization, and review of tariff structures. The EBRD extended a USD 16.2 million sovereign loan to enable the Port to rehabilitate ferry terminal facilities. The project has a substantial institutional development component for which EU-TACIS provided technical assistance (EUR 1 million). Funding for engineering supervision (EUR 980,000) will also be supported by EU-TACIS. Baku International Sea Trading Port’s strategy addresses three main issues: growth of traffic, revenue generation and collection, and commercial and operational efficiency, including in particular the quality of the ferry service. The economics of the TRACECA route through Baku for international transit traffic has been examined intensively by EU-TACIS and has been shown to offer in principle advantages over alternative international routes, which is reflected by the high level of traffic growth over recent years. The financial situation of the Port has been adversely affected by its inability to raise tariffs and severe problems with debt collection mainly from CSSC. The Port will open a Debt Service Account into which the CSSC will be required to pay all amounts owing to the Port. This will add transparency to the financial relations between the Port and the CSSC. I.2. Port of Poti27 in Georgia The port consists of an outer roadstead and an inner harbor. The inner harbor, which is protected by breakwaters, consists 3 basins approached by a channel. The length of entrance channel is 1,900m and the width 100m. The total area of basins is 643,400 sq. meters. Occupying some 465,000 square meters the Port operates all the year round, including weekends. At present the Port has cargo handling equipment on the 14 berths under 27 Current version based mainly on: http://www.potiport.com/geninfo.html and EBRD 2001 93 operation with total length of 2,650m, out of which 11 are equipped with portal cranes of tonnage capacity from 6 to 40 tons and linked by railroad. The Port has its own fleet consisting of tugboats, pilot boats, oil and garbage collecting boats, water barge, two floating cranes from 35 up to 100 tons capacity. Based on cargo handling facilities Port is able to serve almost all types of general, bulk, project, liquid (gas oil, gasoline, chemical) cargoes and containers. Several international shipping lines operate via the Port of Poti, with container links to Istanbul, Piraeus, Malta, and Gio-Tauro by regular feeder lines, with Iliychevsk and Varna by regular rail-ferry and with Bourgas by Ro-Ro lines. In 2000 the port rendered services to 1220 vessels, that is 256 vessels more as compared with the year of 1999. The throughput equaled to 3.6 million tons, which is 1.3 million tons more than in 1999. Total income amounted to GEL 38 million, compared to GEL 28.6 million in 1999. Net profit in 2000 amounted to GEL 9.7 million. Profitability was slightly lower in 2001, but overall, the port is very profitable. (Table I.1.) Table I.1. Statistical data for the Port of Poti in 1999-2001 Source: Questionnaire responses, The Port of Poti Cargo turnover Containers Ships processed Income Expenditures Revenues (balance) Profitability ratio Number of Employees Average salary per empl. Unit Thousand ton TEU Units Thousand GEL Thousand GEL Thousand GEL % 1999 2000 2,298 2,9761 964 28,569 20,844 7,725 37 2,606 141 GEL/month 2001 3,619 36,159 1,220 38,088 28,342 9,746 34 2,681 177 3,440 41,060 1,114 35,523 28,950 6,573 23 2,754 178 According to the Port modernization strategy, Poti Port is carrying out development projects by using its of own resources and attracted foreign investments. Since 1999, the port has invested substantially in cargo handling equipment, modernized two tugboats and purchased a new pilot boat. Maintenance of the Port's wharves and entrance channel has also been carried out. A new ro-ro terminal was completed in 1999, financed by a EUR 6 million grant from the EU’s TRACECA program. The reconstruction of the existing covered storage (7,000m2) and the construction of a new one (3,000m2) alongside berth number 10 and 11 are being carried out by the Port. The construction of new storage will be completed by the end 2002. The completion of the reconstruction of the existing warehouse is Spring 2002. These warehouses will be leased to private operators. 94 An UK-based investor will commence constructing the oil product terminal with a capacity of 3.5 million tons per year. The project cost is 30 USD million, out of which 20 USD million will be EBRD loan. The Port intends to lease berths and terminals to operating and stevedoring companies on a long-term basis. Plans exist to announce international tenders for leasing the eight berths and the ferry terminal. Berth No 6 has already been taken on lease by a local private company. The tenders are expected to be announced in the beginning of year 2003. I.3. Port of Batumi in Georgia28 Batumi port is a substantial transit port mainly for Azeri and Kazakh oil with 8.4 million tons of cargo in 2001. Up to 90 per cent or 7.6 million tons of cargo turnover is crude oil and oil products, while 70 percent of the remaining dry-cargo volume is general cargo. 784 ships were handled in 2001, which is on average 2.1 ships per day. Since 1997, the port has been run as a municipal enterprise. Batumi has 11 piers, and oil, dry cargo and passenger terminals. Plans are underway to build a new container terminal in the near future to handle larger volumes of freight. TRACECA has been preparing a grant valued at EUR 2.2 million for a railway-ferry connecting Constanza, Samsun and Batumi. Based on cargo turnover and collected revenues, year 2001 year was the best year in the past 12 years, and volumes are expected to increase in 2002. The gross cargo turnover of 8.4 million tons in 2001 generated GEL 26.4 million in revenues. The port seems to be exceptionally profitable, because the reported expenses were GEL 9.6 million. This leaves a margin of GEL 16.8 million, and a net profit of GEL 0.8 million. The port transferred GEL 8.2 million to the municipal budget. The port employed 1,378 persons with an average salary of 193 GEL/month. As a comparison, the official average salary in the transport sector in 2000 was 129.3 GEL/month. 28 This esction is based on data from the Portof Batumi, and from their website at: http://batport.batumi.net/ 95 J. Civil aviation Air infrastructure management remains the responsibility of the public sector in all three countries, but the ways in which civil aviation administrations and airport administrations have been organized differ to some extent among the three countries. The main weaknesses identified are: (i) limited administrative capacity of regulators; (ii) small and fragmented markets; (iii) lack of individual strategies for these markets; (iv) aging fleets; (v) two aviation worlds in terms of technology and regulations (e.g. airworthiness). J.1. Armenia Aviation is allegedly one of the Armenian government’s priority areas for development. Modernization, including replacement of practically all airport equipment, and purchase or lease of passenger aircraft is needed. The state carrier, Armenian Airlines, was offered for privatization in 2001 by international tender, but this did not attract investors. The Government is planning to revisit this issue after completion of the Airport concession described below. Scheduled Armenian Airlines flights operate between Yerevan and Amsterdam, Athens, Beirut, Dubai, Frankfurt, Istanbul, Kiev, London, Moscow, Paris and Teheran, among other destinations. British Mediterranean Airways, the British Airways franchisee, is now offering direct flights from London twice a week. Caspian Air operates a twice-weekly flight between Yerevan and Teheran, and 17 regular flights are operated by various Russian airlines to Russian cities. Austrian Airlines commenced twice-weekly flights between Vienna and Yerevan in 2001. Civil aviation infrastructure consists of three international airports, at Zvartnots (Yerevan), Erebuni, and Gyumri, and nine local (non-military) airports, although most of the domestic airports are not functioning. In 1994 the EBRD made a loan of USD 22.8 million for the construction of a cargo terminal at Zvartnots airport, which serves Yerevan. The terminal, which cost USD 27.8 million to build, was opened in early 1998. Apart from building a new warehouse, the project included the construction of new taxiways to accommodate cargo aircraft and the procurement of necessary cargo handling equipment. According to Polyakov (2001), however, the demand for air cargo that was based on the assumption of a strict international blockade of Armenia, has turned out to be significantly lower than estimated. Consequently, the terminal was operating at below 20 per cent capacity in 2001. 96 Management of Zvartnots airport is to be privatized, including responsibility for the passenger and cargo terminals, but not air traffic control. The government is seeking an experienced buyer willing to make investments to upgrade airport facilities. An Argentine company Aeropuertos Argentinas 2000 has announced plans to invest USD 30 million to Zvartnots airport, but the indicative amount of investment needed is closer to USD 100 million. Armenia's government and company Aeropuertos Argentinas 2000 signed a memorandum on a 30-year concession of Zvartnots airport in 2001. The Argentine company is mainly owned by a businessman of Armenian origin. The company manages 32 airports in Argentina. J.2. Azerbaijan The state-owned national airline of Azerbaijan, AZAL, was offered for privatization to both foreign and domestic investors in end-March 2001, along with some 450 larger enterprises. There are regular flights between Azerbaijan and the CIS countries as well as the UK, Germany, Israel, Iran, the Netherlands, Turkey and the UAE. The national airline is AZAL, which is a conglomerate that is practically a self-regulating entity in Azerbaijan civil aviation (see Figure J.1). It operates the main airlines, airports, air traffic control, helicopter services and most of the aviation support services. There are international airports at Baku, Gyandzha and Nakhcivan, although the latter two are in need of reconstruction and repair. Baku’s Bina International airport opened in 1999 after a USD 64 million upgrading and extension by Turkish company Enka. The airport belongs to AZAL, and it can now handle 1,600 passengers an hour. The new runways are also able to serve wide-bodied jets such as Boeing 747s. A number of international airlines have offices in Baku. However, in 2000, some airlines stopped their services to Baku, citing high handling charges by the Baku airport. Azerbaijan is a member of ICAO and AZAL is a member of IATA. Azerbaijan has entered into bilateral air transport or traffic agreements with Belgium, Germany, Egypt, France, Italy, Kazakhstan, The Netherlands, Poland, Turkey and Uzbekistan. 97 Figure J.1. Organization structure of the aviation sector in Azerbaijan 98 J.3. Georgia British Airways, Austrian Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Aeroflot and Air Ukraine as well as the Georgian airline Airzena run regular flights connecting Tbilisi with the outside world. Direct connections exist to a large number of European, Russian, Ukrainian and Middle Eastern cities, including flights several times a week to and from Frankfurt, London, Vienna and Istanbul. In 2001, Georgia had 35 international air routes with 14 countries. (Table J.1. and J.2) Table J.1. Air passenger and cargo volumes in Georgia 1997-1999 Unit Annual volume of air cargo transported Annual volume of air passengers transported Tonnes Passengers 1997 1998 1999 4,789 6,369 2,302 220,000 230,000 171,000 Source: http://web.sanet.ge/gic/transpor.htm Table J.2. Airport passenger traffic from Tbilisi Airport 2000 Source: Georgian Administration of Civil Aviation Liaison (other Airport) London Frankfurt Istanbul Zurich Amsterdam Tel-Aviv Teheran Athens Vienna Moscow Sankt-Petersburg Sochi Rostov Krasnodar Ekaterinburg Samara Kiev Donetsk Depropeetrovsk Odessa Tashkent Baku Distance (km) Average Flying time Annual (hour) Passengers (thousands) 3 800 3 050 1 450 3 400 3 400 1 800 1 100 2 100 2 500 1 750 2 400 500 800 800 2 250 1 400 1 550 1 100 1 100 1 380 2 080 470 99 05.40 04.10 02.10 04.40 04.40 02.30 01.30 03.00 03.00 02.30 03.20 01.20 02.10 02.10 03.00 02.10 02.10 02.50 02.50 02.00 02.40 01.20 Total 15,4 16,2 28,3 14,7 3,8 9,0 2,0 6,9 16,7 112,4 5,2 2,2 0,0 0,6 3,6 4,6 8,2 2,9 1,2 0,4 2,0 3,8 260 Tbilisi airport has been rehabilitated with EBRD financing which has substantially increased its passenger handling capacity. There are smaller airports at Kutaisi, Batumi, Poti and Senaki, all near Black Sea ports. Discussions were underway in 2000 with the Turkish government to reconstruct Batumi airport, which would cost an estimated USD 60 million. Both airport passenger and air freight volumes across the country declined in the past year. A new program developed with specialists from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) aims to double air passenger traffic by 2003. Priority will be given to improving the operation of Tbilisi airport, with further reconstruction and expansion costs estimated at USD 30 million. 100 K. General transport support services This chapter deals with service providers that are supporting the transport sector, such as freight forwarding, customs brokerage and warehousing services. Banking and insurance services are also briefly covered in this chapter, together with customs services. The demand for transport and other logistics services is always derived from the demand generated by trading partners, who are in the business of accommodating the needs of their customers, which may be commercial end-users or consumers. Transport markets in all developed countries have been transformed profoundly through deregulation, privatization, and technological development (notably in information and communications technologies) and through adaptation to customers’ changing logistical needs. This has brought about new types of logistical operators and markets. In many cases the physical handling and transportation of materials is subordinated to the management of supply chains. Consequently, the transport sector has come to support the wider logistical operations, rather than the other way round. In all three countries, freight forwarding, warehousing and other logistics-related services have been privatized almost entirely. Compared to EU standards, for example, the supply of these services is poor, and the quality of the services is often low. Many of the international logistics companies operating in these countries cite that it is difficult to organize reliable and cost-efficient logistics solutions due to unpredictable public administration procedures, corruption and criminality. As was illustrated by the logistical friendliness survey in the Chapter “Strategic Context”, all three countries were perceived as “unfriendly” in this respect, i.e. it is problematic to arrange logistical operations. In other words, it is difficult to do business with them. K.1. Trade and Transport Facilitation The World Bank has been active in promoting Trade and Transport Facilitation (TTF) issues in Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. This work includes the continuation of South Caucasus Trade Facilitation Audit (2000) and the June 2001 Trade Facilitation Workshop in Georgia. The region faces high direct and/or opportunity cost of not acting in terms of high transport costs and low credibility as trading partners (see e.g. the logistics 101 friendliness ratings in Section K.2.) This led to a request by the three countries at highest level to continue efforts facilitate trade and transport. These efforts have also significant on-going Donor Support (e.g. from TRACECA, US and DFID). This is accompanied by significant activities by NGOs and associations such as local freight forwarders, road transport associations, IRU, traders and Transparency International. Transport and forwarding industry is also interested in providing feedback on a regular basis. The objective of the World Bank’s TTF work is to improve the detailed understanding of soft barriers to trade and transport and working out mechanisms, through active public-private interactions (Table K.1.), and to remove those progressively. TTF activities by June 2002 include the following: Intensification of the public-private dialogue on trade and transport issues Preparation of four studies : - performance measurement at selected border crossing and clearance facilities. - definition of barriers to trade and transport, of incentives at a regional and national level to improve the situation and of suitable mechanisms to build on these incentives; - review of information mechanisms available to trade and transport companies to learn about procedures applied by the various border agencies; and - need-analysis of logistic/distribution/industrial centers and the definition of suitable solutions for the region. Table K.1. Public-Private Interactions within the World Bank’s TTF project in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia Armenia PROCommittee representatives National Assembly MOTC TRACECA Staff of President AM CHAM Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen Association of Armenian Freight Forwarders CMN International Ministry of Trade and Industry Customs Committee Transparency International Center For Regional Development Georgia Working Grouprepresentatives (provisional) Georgia Business Confederation Working Group on Trade and Transport and Customs Association of Georgian Freight Forwarders Transport Reform and Rehabilitation Center Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry MOTC Customs Administration TRACECA ICG Secretary Georgian Association of Young Economists 102 Azerbaijan Working Group-representatives (provisional) International Road Carriers Association Association of Freight Forwarders Entrepreneurship Development Foundation National Confederation of Entrepreneurs TRACECA Int’l Trade Sea Port of Baku State Customs Committee "AZERAVTOROAD" Ministry of Finance The objective of Public-Private interactions in the TTF work is to create a structure to systematically identify the most critical issues affecting trade and transport and to design remedial measures, through active public-private interactions. This has the following features: Includes a representative sample of private sector and business associations/NGO (road transport association/freight forwarder association/ trader and businessmen association), representatives from major border agency or government agencies involved with trade/transport, and Donor representatives Provide proposals for implementation to the TRACECA Intergovernmental Commission Builds on reports produced by donors and WB Conduct regular public outreach events Use the experience from Southeast Europe as a model Let the private sector drive the need for change K.2. Logistics and Business friendliness of the South-Caucasus States Trade and transport facilitation should be an issue of high priority in all the three South-Caucasus States. The main developments in these fields require firm action in a number of sectors (e.g. customs services, banking and logistics service providers). How “easy” or “difficult” individual countries are perceived to be as trade and transport partners can be analyzed in a number of ways. Trade and transport operations invariably involve numerous partners both in the public and the private sector, such as banking and insurance agents, in addition to various logistics service providers. In addition, the trading partners (buyers and sellers or consignors and consignees) evaluate the practicalities often on a case-by-case basis. A survey was conducted among international freight forwarders in order to illustrate how “easy” or “difficult” individual countries are perceived to be from a logistical point of view (Ojala and Queiroz 2001). The concept of “Logistics friendliness” was adopted as introduced by Murphy and Daley (1999). According to Murphy and Daley, logistical friendliness (unfriendliness) refers to the ease (difficulty) of arranging international freight operations to/from a particular country. The “friendliness” and “unfriendliness” should be seen as two different concepts (constructs) rather than opposite ends of the same continuum. The survey was conducted in November-December 2000 by approaching 60 different freight forwarders through e-mail. Among other questions, each respondent was asked to rate a set of pre-determined countries as to what extent he/she perceived the named country as logistically “friendly” or “unfriendly”. The countries included in the e-mail questionnaire were based on the 90 countries included in the Corruption Perception Index (CPI) collected by Transparency 103 International and Goettingen University29. Countries with the lowest level of perceived corruption were assigned 10, whereas countries with highest level of perceived corruption were assigned 1. 100 % "Logistics more friendly" 90 % Correlation coefficient = 0.784 80 % 70 % 60 % EU countries 50 % 40 % Azerbaijan 30 % 20 % Armenia 10 % Typical former Soviet Republics 0% 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 Least corrupt 7,0 8,0 9,0 10,0 Figure K.1. The ranking of countries in the logistics friendliness survey against their Corruption Perception Index in 2000. 100 % "Logistics more friendly" 90 % Correlation coefficient = 0.845 80 % 70 % EU countries 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % Azerbaijan 20 % GDP/capita in 1999 in USD (log. scale) 10 % Armenia 0% 100 Typical former Soviet Republics 1 000 10 000 100 000 Figure K.2. The ranking of countries in the logistics friendliness survey against their GDP/capita 1999. 29 see: http://www.gwdg.de/~uwvw/ 104 For each country included in the CPI, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, Atlas method) per capita figure for 1999 was collected using World Bank statistics. Relevant data on both CPI and GDP was found for 88 countries, including Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia was not included in the CPI ranking. Between 6 and 12 independent respondents who were professional freight forwarding agents evaluated each country. For practical reasons, an individual respondent did not evaluate all the 90 countries in the CPI list. If the respondents did not have any exposure to the logistical and/or trade practices of a particular country, they were advised to leave a blank for that country. This procedure increases the reliability of the responses. About 65 percent of the respondents were from EU countries, some 20 percent from the US, and 10 percent from Latin America and the rest from other parts of the world. There were no respondents either from the South-Caucasus States or from the former Soviet republics. On the other hand, about 40 percent of the respondents were from Finland. The combined indicator for logistical friendliness in the survey is the percentage of the responses, which stated that a given country was either logistically “friendly” or “unfriendly”. Hence, the percentage for Armenia (11 percent) indicates that one respondent out of nine viewed Armenia as a “logistically friendly” country, whereas eight did not. One respondent out of six rated Azerbaijan as “logistically friendly”, whereby its value became 17 percent. By comparison, all the respondents regarded Russia as logistically unfriendly; consequently, that country’s ranking is 0 percent in Figures K.1. and K.2. The results are only indicative and somewhat anecdotal, since they are based on a small number of responses (nine for Armenia and six for Azerbaijan), all of which are highly subjective assessments based on hands-on experience. Country-by-country data is shown in Attachment K.1. Despite the somewhat skewed distribution of the respondents, the small number of respondents, and the highly simplified concept used, the results show a striking correlation between on the one hand the logistics friendliness and the CPI, and on the other, the GDP per capita. This is a strong indication that the less perceived corruption there is in a country, the easier it is to trade and arrange the logistical practicalities with that country. Similarly, the higher the level of GDP per capita, the same occurs. This is no surprise as such, but the relatively strong correlation between the logistical friendliness and CPI (0.845); and GNP/capita (0. 784, respectively) is noteworthy. The results also show that the South-Caucasus States are perceived as problematic countries in a logistical sense. Compared against the CPI ranking and GDP/capita data, the three countries show a performance fairly typical of other former Soviet Republics. 105 Table K.2. Obstacles to doing business – Caucasus States Ratings Among 22 World Regions (1 = lowest obstacle rating; 22 = highest rating) Source: A. Brunetti , G. Kisunko, A. Weder, IMF Discussion Paper 33 Ranking (out of 22 world regions) Total obstacles 8 Regulation related obstacles 2 Inflation and Financing related obstacles 5 Trade related obstacles 11 Public Revenue and Expenditure Policies Related 11 Uncertainty Related Obstacles (Policy instability, costs) 16 Crime Related Obstacles 11 In a context of analyzing general obstacles of doing business in certain countries or regions, a broader approach is needed. According to one such study (Brunetti et al.)30, the three South-Caucasus States assume a more positive standing. According to this study, the obstacles upon companies by government regulation were deemed as the second lowest, only to be superseded by the Baltic Republics (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). See Table K.2. K.3. The role of freight forwarders and customs brokers The market structure in freight forwarding in the South Caucasus states comprises three main types of operator. There are large international logistics operators, large national operators and small local operators. The handful of large international operators31 are typically present in the region through country- or region- specific offices, but do not own transport or physical assets in these countries. Their main strength is the possibility to organize worldwide 30 For a broader analysis, see e.g. IFC Discussion Paper Number 33 How Businesses See Government Responses from Private Sector Surveys, available at: http://www.ifc.org/economics/pubs/dp33/dp33.pdf 31 See e.g.: http://www.bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/country/shipcos.htm, and on Armenia also: http://www.bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/country/000524amfreig.htm 106 transports for less-than-truckload (LTL) as well as FTL loads and for containerized LCL and FCL flows. The large express freight operators (DHL, EMS, FedEx, TNT and UPS), have country offices in South Caucasus. The companies have pick-up in capitals and major port or industrial cities such Poti and Batumi in Georgia, and Gyumri and Vanadzor in Armenia. The larger national freight forwarders are small by international standards, and the freight forwarding industry is relatively small in each of the three countries. The national freight forwarding associations have typically less than 40 members. In addition to pure freight forwarding firms, there are also larger transport firms in road transport. These are typically government-owned operators, or privatized former state-owned entities. Their main field of operation is road transport and in some cases operation of freight terminals for inland movement. The fleet is typically overage, but relatively modern equipment is used in international road transport. The large number of small local trucking firms generally operates one to two vehicles. In some cases, as in Azerbaijan, a large number of small firms were created by privatizing state-owned transport entities by selling the (often end-of-life) equipment to the drivers. Due to problematic customs procedures, customs brokers are frequently used in foreign trade and transit shipments. There are no data available of their exact number or total turnover. The larger transport or logistics companies operate customs brokerage units, but numerous small firms or entrepreneurs also do this type of work. Also some of the major manufacturing or trading firms do customs brokerage for their own account. Generally speaking, the market is likely to have two segments, the one dealing with trade towards western countries such as the US and the EU, and the other segment dealing with trade towards CIS countries. This is partly motivated by the differences in the customs rules and language used in the transactions, as well as the due to the great importance of personal relationships in this activity. K.4. Customs services Armenian Customs are believed to function slightly better than in Georgia 32. One problem is the lack of management stability due to frequent changes of senior positions. The new Customs Code entered into force in January 2001. The Azerbaijan Customs Committee has been subject to recent external evaluation (by PwC – completed in early 2002). This formed the basis to the work on Customs reform, in co-operation with the IMF33. Reportedly, there are many cases of misinterpretation of existing laws by customs and some decisions are being made 32 This section draws from notes provided by Judith Dean and from ECSPE (2002a) and ECSPE (2002b). Data from Trade and Transport Facilitation reports and realted conslutant notes are used here. These include data from Gerald Ollivier, who visited Yerevan in early March 2002 and did an extensive work on customs, and the subsequent work by a consultant group led by Martin Humprehys. 33 The PwC report was not available to the consultant. 107 without any legal justification. As the settlement procedures are lengthy, companies seek to avoid it reverting to other means of solving arising problems (e.g. getting the support from the embassy or bribes). The examples of conflict of interests are present also in Customs (the head of Customs is reportedly involved in the tobacco business). The quality of functioning of Georgian Customs is commonly considered as extremely bad, even by regional standards. The first fundamental objective problem is lack of control of many fragments of country's border – in particular in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moreover, corruption seems to be standard. Recent attempts to reform the customs have confronted strong vested interests to maintain the current status quo, thus blocking all the reforms. Deficiencies in physical infrastructure are clearly an issue too. At present customs officers cannot normally operate at seaports and airports; they can, for example, enter the seaport only by the decision of port authorities. It is estimated that as many as ten different structures operate at border crossing points. This makes, among other things, control of rail transport very difficult. For instance, on the Tbilisi-Yerevan train Georgian criminal police rather than customs carry the controls (of luggage and documents). The following examples on transshipment import and export provide information on the type and scope of problems attached to import and export customs clearance. The administrative problems in the process and the additional costs in transit and border crossing in particular impose substantial barriers for transport and trade. Even if the examples concern mainly Armenia, most of the problems described apply for the region as a whole. Transshipment Clearance and Goods Valuation In Armenia, the declaration of the goods under the “transit shipment” regime does not make any provisions for shipment with different types of transportation. For example, for an air transit shipment from Russia to Zvartnots Airport (Yerevan) and further to Georgia, goods are first declared under the “Customs warehouse” regime in Yerevan and then declared to the “Re-export” regime”. This creates process duplication, unnecessary documents and is inefficient. The usual importer/exporter is required to get approval for clearance from the Chief of Customs Committee to use the “Free Customs warehouse” regime. This is in practice impossible in a short period of time. Even with enough time, the importer/exporter is unlikely to be allowed to use this regime. The regime is available to some privileged businesses. An essential problem in the Customs clearance process is the valuation of goods by Customs authorities. In principle, The Customs Code defines the methodology for the calculation of Customs Value according to the provisions of the former GATT Article VII. However the Code states that Invoice Customs Value will be defined only in case of submission of documents including the cargo declaration of the importing country. This declaration is, in practice, never submitted to the Customs officials of the country of exportation. Even if all required documents would be presented, the 108 Customs officer will compare the invoice price with the price for similar products from the “special price/value checklist”. In case of the substantial difference they will use the price in the checklist as a Customs value for imported goods. Therefore, the overwhelming number of imports is declared using the estimation of Customs officer as a base for the determination of the Customs value. Import Customs Clearance Process The cargo arriving into Armenia by truck is being sealed at the border Customs point, where the carrier must pay highway and environment taxes. For a 20-30 ton truck the taxes amount to about USD 250. Simultaneously, the Customs officers will fill in transportation documents. This step typically requires an informal fee of USD 30-50. If certification is required, the process will generally take 1-2 days. The official duty is about USD 60, but it could be increased depending on the number of goods subject to the certification. This step requires informal fees within the range of USD 50 – 100. Then the preliminary declaration is filled in the regional customs house, with informal fees in the range of USD 2 – 10. After this the declared goods are valued. If the goods are subject to the customs duties and VAT and if the required documents are not presented, the invoice method for the identification of the customs value will not be used and the customs value and the duties and taxes respectively (total 32% of the customs value) can be increased. During this step the importer will usually pay the informal fee within the range of USD 30-50. For goods not subject to Customs duty and VAT, the Customs value is usually based on the invoice price. After the payments are made, the Customs officer will inspect and release of the goods at the terminal. The inspection type selected by ASYCUDA is either thorough, medium, or no inspection/ external inspection. Informal payments may be levied within the range of USD 20-50. The services provided by Customs officers in the terminal is subject to the official payment of about USD 20-30, in rare cases the official payment is higher. The informal fee is usually USD 20. Export Customs Clearance Process The export Customs clearance procedure starts with the application for the approval for the export in the regional Customs house or in the Customs Committee. If the exported goods are not of Armenian origin, the informal fee of about USD 500 per one truck is required. The next phase is preliminary declaration, where the informal fee here varies within the range of USD 2-10. The following phase is the loading approval. The loading and weighting must be done on the terminal premises, with the following service fees: sealing – USD 30 (informal fee USD 50), and declaration and release – USD 50-100 (informal fee is USD 50). The exporter will pay an informal fee of USD 50 on the border. If the truck will go through Georgia to other CIS countries it must use the escort service for an additional USD 1500 – 2000. 109 K.5. Transit traffic costs and procedures For the landlocked Armenia and Azerbaijan transit traffic one way or the other is the only means to reach seaports that are needed for transport of voluminous items. Transit traffic is also important in terms of the economic activity, which it generates. The direction of transit traffic is predominantly westwards, with oil products dominating the cargo base. Here, Azeri crude oil with 4.7 million tons in 2000 and petroleum products with 1.1 million tons to Western European markets are the largest single flows. 1.0 million tons was imported from Russia to Armenia in 2000. Apart from oil and oil products, other major commodities are metals and fertilizers. Volumes of unitized goods are very modest. Data on Azerbaijan transit transport (TTF 2002) indicate that 53 per cent of the freight volume in transit traffic in 2001 was moved by road transport, followed by 18 per cent by pipeline transport, 17 per cent by rail and 11 per cent by sea. Air transport counts for 1 per cent of the volumes. Consequently, about 57 per cent of the cargo are transported by private carriers and 43 per cent by state enterprises. Given the virtual blockades of Armenian borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, as well as geographic and political factors affecting transit through Iran, Georgia remains the main transit route for significant part of trade flows from and to Armenia. This clearly gives certain parties on the Georgian side a particularly strong position towards Armenian partners. According to ample anecdotal evidence, Armenian traders experience numerous difficulties and excess costs using transit routes through Georgia. Armenia and Georgia levy high transit fees on foreign vehicles. By contrast, there are no formal transit fees in Azerbaijan, Iran or Turkey. However, all countries apply transit quotas, i.e. the number of vehicles per year allowed to pass through the country’s territory, by nation, is restricted. (Polyakov 2001). According to Polyakov (2001) a truck with a capacity of 10-20 tons transiting Georgia was to pay an equivalent of USD 245 in local currency in October 2000. A similar vehicle transiting the Armenian territory was to pay USD 197 equivalent in local currency. For cargo bound to Georgia the fee was USD 80 higher. In addition to official fees, transit shipments currently face pervasive informal fees. According to data gathered in early 2002, a truck transporting a 20 feet container from Yerevan in Armenia to Port of Poti in Georgia incurs ordinary transport costs at around USD 800 (Table K.3.). These include the drivers’ remuneration, Customs carrier license for the driver and terminal handling cost at the port of Poti. Almost prohibitive additional costs are incurred, if the truck will go from Yerevan through Georgia to Russia or other CIS countries. Typically, the driver has to pay USD 1,800 – 2,000 for the so-called “02 guard service” provided by the Ministry of National Security. Unless this “02 service” is taken, the driver meets difficulties with the road police and/or organized local gangs, and he is likely to face costs amounting 110 to USD 1,500 – USD 2,000. This somewhat anecdotal cost comparison shows the steep increase in formal and informal costs since October 2000. Table K.3. presents a breakdown of the time and official and unofficial monetary expenditures associated with the import of a generic containerized consignment from Northern Europe to Yerevan. The table reveals the significance of the national and regional elements of the total logistical cost, despite their modest part in the total logistics chain. Table K.3. The logistical cost of moving one TEU from Northern Europe to Yerevan by road or rail via the Port of Poti in 2002 prices. Source: data gathered for the Armenia Trade Diagnostic Study, The World Bank 2002 Road Expenditures Money (USD) Official Transport & handling Terminal to final destination Handling charges, terminal Handling charges, Poti port Armenian transport leg Georgian transport leg Ocean leg34 Cross border processing Border guards Customs inspection Highway, environmental taxes Clearance procedures Terminal fees Declaration completion Valuation Inspection Total logistical cost 50 50 175 375 920 925 Unofficial 10-20 500 Rail Time Hours 2 3-4 24-48 5-6 10-15 480 Money (USD) Official 50 50 175 175 190 925 Time Unofficial 10-20 5 5-6 Hours 2 3-4 24-48 8-9 15-20 480 96-120 10 30 – 50 30 – 50 250 25 2,770 20 2 - 10 30 - 50 20 – 50 602-710 1 1 1 2-3 532-562 25 1,590 20 2 - 10 30 - 50 20 – 50 92-205 1 1 1 2-3 633-689 The Georgian leg of the movement by road accounts for nearly 40 percent of the total costs, with the Armenian leg accounting for 27 percent and the leg between Poti and Northern Europe accounting for the remaining 33 percent. The total unofficial fees amount to between 22-25 percent of the total costs, whilst the Georgian leg is responsible for over 85 percent of the total unofficial fees and nearly 20 percent of the total costs, due, primarily, to the demands of the traffic police. On the rail mode, the unofficial fees amount to between 6-13 percent of the total cost, but the time expenditures for the land-based legs increase markedly. This is primarily due to the delay at the border, despite a formal agreement between Armenian Customs and the Armenian State Railway Company that delay should be restricted to a maximum of 5 hours for cargo wagons, and 3 hours for passenger trains. The reality 34 Assuming 20 days from Poti to Rotterdam. 111 is that the delay averages 4-5 days, engendered entirely by the Customs procedure detailed above, that requires a Customs official at the border to send a telex to the regional customs house to confirm cargo and delivery time. Table K.4. Standard freight quotations for Port-to-Port transport of a 20 foot container in early 2002; the freights rates are subject to rebates. Source: Background data gathered for the South Caucasus TTF project, The World Bank Port-to-Port rates to Poti and Batumi 35 Hamburg, Bremen, Rotterdam Marseille, Barcelona Piraeus East Canada, USA West Canada, USA Sea Freight-+Port fees in USD Total in USD 1,000+180+Customs 950 +180+Customs 550 +180+Customs 1,700+500+180+Customs 1,800+500+180+Customs 1,180+Customs 1,130+Customs 730+Customs 2,380+Customs 2,480+Customs Note: Customs duties depend on commodity, customs regime. Railway Transportation (20’) Batumi-Yerevan Poti-Yerevan Batumi-Baku Poti-Baku Tariff in USD 535 485 625 575 Depending on the competitive situation and the balance of trade in liner shipping, the transocean freight rates may differ substantially by direction (west to east or east to west). The tariff-based quotation on shipping freight rates shown in Table K.3. and K.4. are also subject to customer and cargo based rebates, but the rates are indicative. The logistics costs indicated in Table K.3. and K.4. are very high compared to regular shipments between, say Northern Europe and East Asia. Even with the considerably longer maritime leg, a container (similar as the one indicated in the Table) will reach its destination in comparable inland destinations in, for example, China at 2,000 to 2,500 USD. This is mainly because of the economies of scale due to larger vessels and volumes. This means that exporters from these countries can land their products in European markets at less logistics costs than exporters from the South Caucasus region. This is because there are practically no unofficial payments or fees in those countries, or if they exist, they are very small. The pervasive unofficial fees in South Caucasus thus create a serious hurdle for exporters in highly competitive industries such as electronics and food processing. The high logistics costs are particularly prohibitive for new or potential exporters. 35 The tariff for the port fee in Batumi is 110 USD copared to USD 180 in Poti. 112 K.5. Free Trade Zone and Logistics Center Developments The 2001 TTF workshop in Tbilisi stressed on the necessity to prepare a strategy for the development of logistics/distribution/industrial centers in the Caucasus region The workshop recommended preparing a market driven proposal for logistics/distribution/industrial centers. Such a strategy, followed by consistent actions by the respective Governments, would offer a good setting to attract investors. A regional approach is warranted in designing the enabling environment for attracting private investors in logistic/distribution and/or industrial centers, after having studied the different options and models. This section presents the current status of selected free trade zone and logistics center developments. This selection is not an exclusive list of all on-going or planned projects. It also needs to be said that not all these projects materialize, as has been the case with the Sumgait SEZ project, for example. K.5.1. Sumgait Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Project The city of Sumgait is situated 35 km to the North-West of Baku on the Caspian Sea. During the Soviet period, its industrial base was built around petrochemicals and chemicals, metallurgy and textiles. In 1995 Sumgait's population was 273,000. In addition, 60,000 internally displaced persons and refugees reside in the city. In 1995 the Government of Azerbaijan requested the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, UNIDO, through the office of the United Nations Development Program, UNDP, in Baku to assist in the formulation of an industrial development strategy and support program for the Sumgait region. The UNIDO working group came to the conclusion that Sumgait undoubtedly met all the requirements in order to become a SEZ. The geographical site on the Caspian designated for the construction of the port is advantageous. The transport infrastructure is satisfactory since it has an airport, a railway sorting station, the main Baku – Rostov road nearby as well as skilled labor force. According to some estimates in 1998, the rehabilitation of Sumgait's economy USD 15 to 20 billion, with USD 7 to 8 billion for chemical industry alone. A team of national and international experts drafted the legislative framework in 1996. It comprised (i) the draft Law of the Republic of Azerbaijan on Free Economic Zones, that was discussed in the Parliament but was not passed, and (ii) the draft of a Presidential Decree on the Creation of the Sumgait Special Economic Zone and the Establishment of the Sumgait Special Economic Zone Authority, which has not been issued. No clear official reason for not issuing the law and related decrees have been given. Subsequently, the project has been suspended and no steps towards implementation have been taken 113 K.5.2. First Logistics Center for Road Transport in Azerbaijan Azertrans, a transport company, and part of the Azerinvest financial and industrial group, has announced plans to create the first logistics center for road transport in Azerbaijan. The center will be situated at Azertrans’ road transport terminal in Binaghadi. EBRD has been approached to co-finance the project. Currently, there are no advanced road transport terminals in Azerbaijan providing customs and warehouse services, accommodation for drivers, packing of goods and other value-adding logistics services all in one place. The information available of the proposed new terminal is limited, and it is not clear, how extensive logistics service will actually be on offer in that terminal. EBRD has launched a credit line for development of infrastructure projects through three Azerbaijan banks. In order to proceed with funding, EBRD will need relevant Feasibility studies of the proposed projects. K.5.3. Free Trade Zone at Bina Airport, Baku AZAL (Azerbaijan Airlines State Company), is the owner and actual operator of Baku Bina Airport through its subsidiary Ground Handling Company. In the absence of clear public administration in the transport sector, the AZAL group has evolved to a self-regulating unit. There are signs that the group may have abused its market position. For example, British Airways, KLM and Emirates have ceased their operations in Azerbaijan within the past few years. There are indications that a semi-official FTZ has been operating at Baku Airport since 1995. The "FTZ" provided opportunities for duty free trade and also production of some consumer goods. Unfortunately, little public information is available on that issue. K.5.4. Bonded Warehouse in Baku According to industry sources, there are plans to launch the first bonded warehouse in Baku during April 2002. Production Sharing Agreements (PSA) concluded between the Government of Azerbaijan and AIOC (Azerbaijan International Operating Company), include a special taxation and customs regime mode for the oil projects, which are considerably lower than the ones paid by other legal entities. This is a case where AIOC parties can influence the governmental agencies and obtain special conditions, even if the mechanism of issuing licenses to establish bonded warehouses is not clearly laid down yet. 114 Thus, the bonded warehouse facility to be opened soon is an ad hoc arrangement that would specifically service operations of an oil consortium, and will be run by a freight-forwarder involved in oil projects. K.5.5. Free Trade Zones near the Iranian Border In August 2001 a free trade zone called "Mugan" opened near the Iranian border of Azerbaijan. The Ministry of Economic Development of Azerbaijan acted as a Governmental Agency responsible for this project from Azerbaijan side. According to preliminary estimates, the annual turnover of the FTZ could reach up to USD 10 million, but no further information is available as to the nature of the business or its composition. According to industry sources, there are plans to establish a similar FTZ on the Iranian side of the border. The Iranian side has allegedly taken responsibility for development of infrastructure of this area. Negotiations are also said to be going on about establishment of another FTZ of this type at Iranian Nakhcivan Border. K.5.6. Free Trade Zones within the framework of CIS CIS countries, including Azerbaijan, have ratified a number of multilateral agreements and protocols towards the establishment of the CIS free trade zone, similar to that of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), designed to replace the bilateral regime of the trade that existed in 1991-1993. The first such agreement on the establishment of the FTZ in the CIS was signed in 1994. A Protocol of 1999 amends the 1994 Agreement, leaving the disputed and numerous exceptions in the 1994 Agreement to the bilateral agreements. Only in 21 June 2000 the CIS countries agreed on a Plan of Implementation of Recommendations on the Establishment and Operation of the CIS FTZ. The document sets a list of most important activities, such as carrying on internal activities on the implementation of signed multilateral documents, and a need for ratification of requisite agreements on free flow of goods, services, and cash, free transit, nonpayments, and transport corridors. The CIS FTZ issue was in the agenda of the 11th Session of the Economical Council of CIS countries held in March 2002. Following that, The Council of Heads of Governments of CIS Countries will discuss the issue in summer 2002. The main problem concerned is levying VAT at the destination. K.6. Financial markets and services Access to credit in Armenia is difficult and this allegedly constitutes a significant barrier to development of new businesses and trade development. Banking sector is weak and several banks are badly managed. Interest rates are rather high and banks prefer to work with clients that they know. 115 Armenia maintains a liberal foreign exchange system with no current account restriction and the few minor capital account restrictions (mostly imposed for prudential reasons). In 1997 Armenia accepted Article VIII of the IMF Agreement and committed to refrain from imposing restrictions on carrying out payments and transfers. The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) maintains the managed float exchange rate regime. (IMF 2001c) Further reforms in the Azerbaijan banking sector are needed to enable more vigorous private sector development. The banking system has undergone some further consolidation over the past year, down from 68 to 53 banks. The country remains “overbanked” and undercapitalized, with total AZM deposits equivalent to 1.3 % of GDP (Singh 2001). As noted by the US (2001), lack of credit is a key constraint to the development of private business in Azerbaijan. The existing credit supply is far too small to provide a suitable environment for the development of even small enterprises in Azerbaijan, let alone medium-sized ones. Many enterprises have no access to affordable credit given collateral requirements, short payment terms, etc. Long-term trade and project finance is rare. The banking system in Georgia is small, fragmented and weak in comparison with intermediate and advanced transition countries. With total banking assets of less than USD 400 million, banks are not as yet able to intermediate the bulk of financial transactions in the country. Reform of Georgia’s banking system, under the supervision of the National Bank of Georgia (the central bank), began in mid-1995. Progress has been made in consolidating banks through the introduction of reporting requirements and gradual increases in the minimum capital requirement. The International Accounting Standard IAS 2000 is being introduced for all banks during 2001. In Georgia, access to credit, including credit for foreign trade operation is difficult. Interest rates are very high due to high general risk in the economy and lack of available financial resources (IMF 2001d) . Credits are often granted on the basis of personal contacts with bank's employees or thanks to bribes. Given the nature of foreign trade operations this does not seem to represent an important barrier to imports. Leasing has not been allowed in Georgia, and the only exception is the leasing agreement between Georgian airlines Airzena and the German Hapag Lloyd on two Boeing 737 airliners. According to Georgian Times (April 15, 2002), the first Georgian leasing company has been established but the company is still waiting the Parliament to pass the necessary laws. Leasing as an alternative to finance transport equipment would lower the barriers of entry to the transport market. 116 L. Summary and conclusion This report is based on the most recent reports available on the three South-Caucasus States’ transport sector, the pre-seminar questionnaire sent to the three countries in March 2002 and the presentations held at the South-Caucasus States Seminar on Restructuring of the Transport Sector, held in April 18-19, 2002 in Tbilisi. Conclusions of meeting are listed below: General 1. The Seminar was attended by high-level delegations from all three countries, as well as International Financial Institutions , international organizations, and private interests; 2. It allowed a wide ranging discussion on all aspects of transport policy in the individual countries and also regionally. It was held in a positive spirit of exchange and co-operation 3. It showed that much work and progress had taken place in liberalizing the transport market and in adjusting to the market economy but also that much remained to be done regionally and in the three Countries to bring transport infrastructure and services to the level of those in the rest of Europe 4. The full program and all presentations are being put on the ECMT and World Bank sites for consultation and information. Policy Framework, Management and Financing 5. The participants identified the main difficulties and challenges facing the transport sector in the Region; these include: a lack of confidence by shippers in using routes through the region as well as difficulties in defining a coherent infrastructure network for national and international transport. the long time required to change laws and adjust to the new ways of functioning a severe shortage of funds, to maintain and improve infrastructure as well as a lack of long term budget planning the variety and variability of transport charges and taxes in the region resulting in confusion among shippers and increasing the risks of fraud and corruption the lack of human resources, especially in management the need for management training 6. In order to provide a sound framework for transport development, the countries need to accelerate the formulation of transport policies and plans, based on market economy principles, with clear priorities, and, importantly, with identified indicative multiyear financing plans, agreed at government and parliament level, with due regard to international agreements and resolutions. 7. Significant progress has been made to clarify the roles of government and private sector, and there are several examples of effective private sector participation 117 in transport operations. But there is still a clear need to improve institutional arrangements and structures for ownership, administration, management and service delivery in order to make the government more efficient and to increase the development and participation of the private sector in service delivery and, possibly, in management. This applies to all modes. 8. There is a pressing need to improve the investment climate to attract foreign investment in the sector. Equally important is domestic resource mobilization, which could be based more on the principle of user charges. Trade facilitation, ports and logistics 9. Bureaucratic border crossing and customs procedures are a major cause of delays and expense (both formal and informal). These procedures need to be streamlined and improved so that border crossing target times agreed in UN ECE and ECMT are met, and that transit times for international traffic within the region and to Europe and Asia are reduced. It is encouraging that a public -private Committee for trade and transport facilitation will be created in each country to identify barriers and define a specific set of projects to alleviate them. These Committees will present their projects to the TRACECA IGC and their respective national governments. 10. Initiatives, measures and ideas within each country were presented to resolve or reduce these problems; these include projects and studies financed by EU, IFIs and TRACECA as well as initiatives like the proposed TRACECA visa. Monitoring of these initiatives should be followed-up to ensure implementation. Road sector 11. The most significant problems are (1) the backlog in maintenance, (2) very low budget financing combined with low direct user charges, and (3) poor traffic safety record. (4) Resolving these problems requires improved human resources in road management, significantly higher and stable financing, introduction of new (EU harmonized) standards and technology, and the development of competent domestic consultant and construction industries, which is only feasible with stable domestic financing, initially supplemented by loans and credits. Railways and Intermodal 12 The most significant problems are: (1) the old age and poor condition of track and rolling stock and lack of equipment for container traffic; (2) absence of management information systems, to improve efficiency, for train circulation, for goods movement and for tracking shipments, for empty wagons, for track maintenance, and for ticketing and reservation; (3) difficulties to adjust to new demand patterns, both commodity and direction; (4) inexperienced and untrained management to evolve from the old monolithic State Railways to a modern, economically viable organization. 13. Special problems are caused by the bottlenecks in ports; with customs and other bureaucratic processes as well as tariff setting by commodity both domestically and in international transport. 118 Urban transport 14. Urban transport faces the twin problems of dealing with the rapid growth in car traffic and maintaining a viable public transport system. The key problem for financing urban public transport is resources, partly because of the significant difference between fare box revenue and operating costs, especially for the Metro, and also partly because of the decentralization of responsibility without funds. There are imaginative attempts in the region to introduce tendering and private sector operators in the public transport system and also to introduce new forms of clean transport to deal with the specific local situation 15. Emerging traffic problems of pollution and congestion in urban areas deserve special attention; with the appropriate measures to include the promotion of all means of public transport (metro, trams, trolley-buses, regular buses and minibuses) combined with traffic management measures like parking regulations and charges. Next steps 16. The shared objective is to raise transport services and infrastructure to the level of the other European Countries. The individual Countries have the major responsibility here but international organizations and financial institutions can help. It will be useful if the there is improved co-ordination in the region of different international bodies (e.g. ECMT, UN ECE, EC, UIC, WB, EBRD, and others), so that synergy is created and consistent messages are given and applied. 17. Participants agreed that close cooperation between all three countries would benefit the region. ECMT, UN ECE, the World Bank and the EBRD agreed to arrange periodically fora for information exchange and for sharing experience and for monitoring the implementation of the recommendations above. This will also help to encourage domestic and regional approaches to resolve problems and increase understanding between the financial institutions and the borrowers. To sum it up, the three South-Caucasus States have made progress in their transport sector development both in terms of transport infrastructure improvement and creation of markets and private sector participation in provision of transport services. Substantial investment is still needed in the three states to improve the road and rail infrastructure in particular. Considerable work remains to be done to strengthen the institutional capability and processes on all levels of public administration. The governance of transport sector administrations and authorities is underdeveloped, but there are signs for improvement. For example, the work started to restructure the Georgian road administration, if continued, could provide a model to be used across public administration in Georgia, and perhaps in the region too. Finally, transport sector development, together with trade facilitation are effective means to achieve sustainable economic growth in this region in order to alleviate the pervasive poverty in the three countries. 119 References AmCham (2001), American Chamber of Commerce in Azerbaijan, White Paper. Business Today in Azerbaijan, May Azerbaijan Economic Trends, various issues Brehmer, P-O and Ojala, L. (1997) The Mobility Market and the Organisational Transformation of the British, Swedish and Finnish Railways, British Academy of Management annual conference, September 1997, London Brunetti, A., Kisunko, G, and Weder, A. (2001) How businesses see Government Responses from Private Sector Surveys, IFC Discussion Paper No. 33, available at: http://www.ifc.org/economics/pubs/dp33/dp33.pdf CBA (2001), Central Bank of Armenia Annual Report 2000 CES (2001), Center for Eastern Studies database COWI (2001), The World Bank, Trade Facilitation in the Caucasus. 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(2000) Cleaner Transport Fuels for Cleaner Air in Central asia and the Caucasus, The World Bank available at: http://www.ifc.org/ogc/pdfs/242_01_CTFinCA.pdf Martin (2001), Steve C. Martin (Ernst&Young Azerbaijan), Tax Regime, available at: http://www.usacc.org/azerbaijan/econ-indicators.htm#econ1 Murphy, P.R. and Daley, J.M. (1999) Revisiting logistical friendliness: perspectives of international freight forwarders, Journal of Transportation Management, Spring 1999, 65-71 Ojala, L. and Queiroz, C. (2001, eds.) Transport Sector Restrcuturing in the baltic States, The World Bank, available at: http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ECA/eca.nsf/0/285b85155cb0455885256ab8006 89a2a?OpenDocument&Start=1&Count=1000 Polyakov, E. (2001). 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Sustainable Transport Policies (2000), ECMT, OECD, Paris TTF 2002; Trade & Transport Facilitation in the Caucasus, Final Report on Identifying Information Mechanisms, Prepared for The World Bank, May 2002 TTF Survey 2002; Trade & Transport Facilitation in the Caucasus, Survey Report Prepared for The World Bank, May 2002 UN (2001), United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Accession to World Trade Organization: Issues and recommendations for Central Asia and Caucasian economies in transition, Studies in Trade and Investment 48, ST/ESCAP/2160 UNECE (2002) Intrenational Agreements and Conventions in the Field of Transport, Geneva US (2001), The U.S Commercial Service, Azerbaijan Country Commercial Guide FY2002 US Department of State (2001), Georgia Country Commercial Guide FY2002 World Development Report 1994, Infrastructure for Development, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. The World Bank (1997) Transport Sector Review, Republic of Armenia, Report N. 16625AM The World Bank (1996) Transport Sector Memorandum, Georgia, Report N. 13978-GZ The World Bank (2001a) Trade, Transport and Telecommunications in the South Caucasus: Current Obstacles To Regional Cooperation, available at: http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eca/eca.nsf/d1e666886eb626e2852567d1001651 68/9761da11f5067053852569fc007210c4?OpenDocument The World Bank (2001b) Post Conflict Transport Study – Roads, available at: http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eca/eca.nsf/d1e666886eb626e2852567d1001651 68/115a6cfe8d044f89852569fa00784926?OpenDocument The World Bank (2001c) Post Conflict Transport Study: Railroads available at: http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eca/eca.nsf/d1e666886eb626e2852567d1001651 68/a66c02f0d96cb6d0852568fc005d2a3e?OpenDocument The World Bank (2002) Armenia Trade Diagnostic Study, forthcoming 122 Attachment C.1. Armenia at a glance Armenia: http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/aag/arm_aag.pdf 123 124 Attachment C.2. Azerbaijan at a glance Azerbaijan: http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/aag/aze_aag.pdf 125 126 Attachment C.3. Georgia at a glance http://www.worldbank.org/data/countrydata/aag/geo_aag.pdf 127 128 Attachment E.1. Armenian export and import by mode and commodity in 2000, in thousand tons Source: TRACECA database EXPORT Georgia By road By rail Iran By road By rail Russia By road By rail Turkey By road By rail Europe W&S By road By rail Middle East By road By rail North America By road By rail IMPORT Georgia By road By rail Iran By road By rail Russia By road By rail Turkey By road By rail Europe W&S By road By rail Middle East By road By rail North America By road By rail Ores, incl. salt Construction materials (incl cement) Ferrous/ nonferrous metals Timber Plastics & rubber Machinery & equipment Animal products Food stuffs 654 1,053 48,272 19 - - 53 - 457 - 155 - 160 - 407 - - 22,712 - 237 - 136 - 9,984 - - - 920 - 649 70 92 - 55 - 3,471 - 2,228 1,005 15 - 2,309 1,837 - - - 29 - - 62 - - - 480 26,143 29,980 39,038 684 - - 45 - 43 95 - - 3,352 1,784 1,276 422 - 413 33 - 162 121 40 - 1,733 - - 14 46 - 196 667 Oil& oil products Fertilizers Other chemical products Construction materials (incl cement) Ferrous/ nonferrous metals Animal products Agricultural products Food stuffs 38,514 - 1,020 21,895 8 1,699 205 958 33 - 104 354 91 60 31,919 - - 14,640 - 17,038 - 1,762 - 18,967 - 4,035 - 8,644 - 738 - 25 - 1,739 1,389 367 575 5,172 2,093 965 85 266 25 1,491 440 2 7,021 - 5,778 - 2,317 - 4,609 - 486 - 396 - 2,759 24,956 108 543 11 - 1,455 133 537 782 911 206 3,445 642 1,041 381 26,800 28,938 752 - - 6,124 - 2,060 - 1,233 - 3,898 - 1,230 - 110 37 14,606 52,330 - 99 182 6 180 21 241 1,747 11,567 390 90 110 1,678 129 Attachment F.1. Vehicle and overweight fees for crossing the Georgian border in 2002 in Georgian Laris Source: Georgian MOTC reply to the seminar questionnaire, 2002 A. Tax on bringing their motor vehicles onto the territory of Georgia owners of the foreign vehicles should pay (to Road Fund): Vehicle types 1 Tax rate in GEL 2 60 115 230 380 230 Motor cars Buses(up to 13 seats) Buses(13-30 seats) Buses (over 30 seats) Trucks and other vehicles with carrying capacity to 3 tons (inclusive) Trucks with carrying capacity 3 -10 tons (inclusive) 380 Trucks with carrying capacity 10-20 tons (inclusive) 480 Trucks with carrying capacity 20- 40tons (inclusive) 650 Trucks with carrying capacity over 40 tons 880 Customs fee --100 GEL Veterinary- sanitary control -10 GEL B. Owners of the trucks upon entering and/or transiting the territory of Georgia, in case of overloading should pay tax on each axle: Up to 0,5 tonnes (inclusive) _ Up to 0,5 tonnes (inclusive) _ From 0,5 to 1,0 tonnes (inclusive) _ From 1,0 to 1,5 tonnes (inclusive) _ From 1,5 to 2,0 tonnes (inclusive) _ From 2,0 to 2,5 tonnes (inclusive) _ From 2,5 to 3,0 tonnes (inclusive) _ 50 GEL 50 GEL 80 GEL 100 GEL 125 GEL 170 GEL 250 GEL 130 161,7 170,3 124,0 9,7 397,9 5,0 1 427,2 6,0 133,2 19,4 87,5 16,2 186,3 46,8 442,2 87,0 52,0 742,8 980,2 77,3 428,8 Cote d´Ivoire Tanzania Kenya Indonesia Slovenia Namibia Morocco Poland Croatia Bulgaria Argentina Ethiopia Ukraine Chile Botswana Tunisia El Salvador Cameroon Thailand Romania Vietnam Azerbaijan Costa Rica Jordan Zambia Philippines Uzbekistan Colombia Armenia Peru Belarus Ghana Kazakhstan Angola Malawi Senegal Zimbabwe Burkina Faso Bolivia Moldova Uganda Mozambique Russia Nigeria 710 240 360 580 9 890 1 890 1 200 3 960 4 580 1 380 7 600 100 750 4 740 3 240 2 100 1 900 580 1 960 1 520 370 550 2 740 1 500 320 1 020 720 2 250 490 2 390 2 630 390 1 230 220 190 510 520 240 1 010 370 320 230 2 270 310 2,7 2,5 2,1 1,7 5,5 5,4 4,7 4,1 3,7 3,5 3,5 3,2 1,5 7,4 6,0 5,2 4,1 2,0 3,2 2,9 2,5 1,5 5,4 4,6 3,4 2,8 2,4 3,2 2,5 4,4 4,1 3,5 3,0 1,7 4,1 3,5 3,0 3,0 2,7 2,6 2,3 2,2 2,1 1,2 Sources: World Bank (GDP data), Transparency International and Goettingen university (CPI), Ojala and Queiroz, 2001 (survey) 131 Logistics friendlinesss in % 10,4 8,0 10,6 119,5 19,6 3,2 33,8 153,1 20,4 11,3 277,9 6,6 37,5 71,1 5,1 19,9 11,8 8,5 121,0 34,2 28,2 4,4 9,8 7,0 3,2 78,0 17,6 93,6 1,9 60,3 26,8 7,4 18,9 2,7 2,0 4,7 6,1 2,6 8,2 1,6 6,8 3,9 332,5 37,9 CPI RANKING 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 COUNTRY 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 90 90 89 89 89 89 88 88 88 86 83 82 82 80 80 78 75 71 71 67 63 60 57 50 50 50 50 44 43 40 40 40 38 38 38 33 33 GNP per capita in 1999 105,9 9,4 8,9 8,3 7,7 6,4 6,1 4,6 9,4 8,6 10,0 7,6 7,2 7,0 9,1 8,6 7,8 9,2 8,7 9,1 9,1 6,4 5,5 7,7 9,8 4,9 4,1 4,0 5,7 6,7 3,4 5,0 3,5 3,1 2,6 3,8 5,2 6,6 2,8 2,7 4,3 3,9 3,1 4,8 3,3 GNP 1999 (USD billions ) 122,9 2 079,2 71,4 551,6 146,4 273,1 8 351,0 591,4 1 338,1 95,4 25 040 24 320 20 050 25 970 32 230 24 510 19 710 13 780 30 000 23 780 25 350 19 160 14 000 32 880 38 350 30 600 19 320 22 640 29 610 25 000 10 600 12 000 23 520 32 030 11 770 2 620 13 000 3 480 23 480 2 470 3 160 3 590 1 400 1 310 2 900 4 650 18 000 450 3 670 5 060 4 420 780 3 400 4 400 Rank 221,8 384,3 380,8 210,0 4 078,9 250,6 1 136,0 52,7 Logistics friendlinesss in % Sweden Netherlands Australia Austria Japan Belgium Italy New Zealand Luxembourg Finland Germany Ireland Spain Norway Switzerland USA Canada United Kingdom Singapore Iceland Portugal Taiwan Hong Kong Denmark Greece Lithuania South Korea Estonia France Latvia South Africa Slovak Republic Egypt Ecuador Turkey Hungary Israel India Venezuela Czech Republic Brazil China Malaysia Mexico CPI RANKING COUNTRY 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 GNP per capita in 1999 Rank GNP 1999 (USD billions ) Attachment K.1. Data of the ”logistical friendliness” survey 33 33 33 30 29 29 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 22 22 22 22 22 20 20 20 17 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0