By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow – 7/6/2013
The passing week saw a National Security Council meeting on energy security and institutional strengthening of local government bodies in Armenia that was convened by the country's President Serzh Sargsyan.
The public was not informed on what particular discussions went on during the meeting and what specific decisions were made on the mentioned issues, but the president's official website disseminated Sargsyan's opening remarks in which he made a number of forecasts pertaining to the region.
Sargsyan, in particular, stressed that in three or four years major changes are expected in the region. He also predicted an imminent fiasco for neighboring Azerbaijan in connection with the expected reduction of its oil and gas revenues in the years to come and continuing squander of public funds.
Many regard these statements in the context of the internal situation in
Armenia, which is not easy either, as well as in the context of the negotiations on the Karabakh issue. Shortly before that, President of
Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made the same predictions for Armenia, claiming that the country was being devastated by poverty and continuing emigration.
One way or another, Sargsyan's words sounded symptomatic against the background of developments in the region. In particular, the matter concerns continuing protests in neighboring Turkey where demonstrators also make appeals to ethnic cousin Azerbaijan. 'Aliyev, You're Next' banners have been spotted at some demonstrations in Istanbul recently.
In the wake of the 'Arab Spring' in which several dictators of Arab countries were deposed and radical governments were brought in to replace them, opinions were expressed that the United States has been carrying out a full "reset" in the Greater Middle East region. This was primarily connected with the strengthening of the fight against terrorism: some observers claim that by bringing to power weak Islamist governments,
Washington seeks to weaken these countries, plunging them into the abyss of internal war so that they forget about terrorism.
There also seems to be a plan for a territorial redrawing of the region, in accordance with which the state of Kurdistan should be created on some of the territories of today's Iraq, Syria and Turkey.
Iraq and Syria are already weak enough to cede part of their territory, but
Turkey remains strong.
It is interesting that Armenia may also figure in this Greater Middle East reshape plans, and it is not excluded that the matter could concern the return of some of its western territories now controlled by Turkey as well as a final solution to the Karabakh problem.
It is not without reason that during the recent visit to Washington of
Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian his American counterpart John
Kerry said the United States will defend the security of the 'friendly
Armenian people'. In a conversation with Azerbaijan's Minister of Foreign

Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov Kerry spoke more about energy security and cooperation in this area.
Electoral processes are expected in Turkey and Azerbaijan in autumn, before that a presidential ballot will be held in Iran. The outgoing president in
Iran will be replaced by a new one as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not eligible to run for a third consecutive term. This means that changes may take place in global politics and US-Iranian relations may improve. And sharp changes are not excluded in Turkey and Azerbaijan - in either country there is not only growing discontent with the policies of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and President Ilham Aliyev, respectively, but also serious national problems, in particular, the Kurdish question in Turkey. Although Erdogan is trying to improve relations with the Kurds and bring its fighters out of the country, no one knows how this factor will be played out during a possible revolution scenario.
In any case, Sargsyan said that Armenia must be ready for such changes, still he did not elaborate on Armenia's priorities in this regard apart from the drive to improve its economic standing. However, it is obvious that one should be ready for the worst, including possible military action.