PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering Methodology: Content Damage and Operability Aspects By the UC Science Building Testbed Committee Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center University of California, Berkeley July 18, 2002 Development Schedule CC: Comartin FF: Fillipou GF: Fenves GGD: Deierlein GP: Pardoen JE: Ellwood JLB: Beck KAP: Porter KM: Mosalam MCC: Comerio NM: Makris RM: Macoun RZ: Zerbe SEC: Chang TH: Hutchinson WTH: Holmes Schedule Section 1. Introduction 1.1 Background 1.2 Objectives 1.3 Scope 2. Building Description 2.1 Summary description 2.2 Geotechnical properties 2.3 Structural properties 2.4 Architectural features 2.5 MEP 2.6 Contents 3. Components to be tested 4. Seismic Hazard Analysis 4.1 Conventional free-field hazard analysis 4.2 Hazard, improved IM 5. EDPs 5.1 Analytical modeling of soil-foundation-structure system 5.2 Validation of analytical models 5.3 Prediction of EDPs Responsible Due Done GGD, MCC MCC, KAP, GGD MCC, KAP, GGD 5/02/02 5/02/02 5/02/02 MCC, WTH KAP, PS KM MCC MCC, WTH MCC, WTH KAP w/MCC 10/02 Outline 1/17/02, draft ? Outline 1/17/02, draft ? 4/02-5/02 4/02 4/02 4/02 5/02 to be revised 12/02 5/02 5/02 4/15/02 PS, KAP 5/02 5/02/02 NM ? KM, FF (not in this Outline 5/02, Draft 10/02 testbed?) KM, FF Outline 5/02, Draft 10/02 KM, CAC, JLB, FF Outline 1/02, Draft 10/02, Final 4/03 ii 5/07/02 5/07/02 7/10/02 5/03 5/07/02 5/07/02 7/10/02 7/10/02 Section Responsible 6. Damage analysis 6.1 Testing of nonstructural components TH, GP NM, TH, GP 6.2 Damage estimation 7. Loss analysis 7.1 DV/DM relationships for important components 7.2 Application of loss (and downtime) estimation methodology 7.3 Propagation of uncertainties from IM to DV 8. Relation to current approaches 8.1 Current Practice TH, GP, NM, GF KAP, JLB KAP, JLB Due Select & describe components & limit states 3/15/02 (WTH, TH, NM); outline, testing schedule, 5/02; final draft 10/03 Outline 5/02, damage estimates, partial draft (TH, GP, NM), OpenSEES equipment model 10/02 (GF), Quantify & disseminate by 7/15/02, report draft by 8/15/02, final draft by 10/1/02 Outline by 5/02, itemize elements to be considered by 5/15/02, final report 5/03 CAC, JLB, BE, RZ, SEC ???? CAC outline 1/17/02, CAC, JLB identify sources of uncertainty by 4/1/02, CAC, BE, RZ, SEC quantify impacts on DV by 7/02, CAC, BE, RZ, SEC final report by 10/02 WTH, CC Assessment by 6/02, draft report by 7/02 CC: Comparison w/ FEMA 356 by 10/02; WTH: Critique of PEER methodology by 12/02 ? 8.2 Assessment of PEER WTH, CC Methodology 9. Societal issues and impact JE, RM, RZ, SEC??? 9.1 Stakeholders defined and issues described 9.2 Engineers vs. occupants attitude toward loss and contents damage, downtime 9.3 DVs Done iii Outlined 6/02. Some text inserted 6/02. Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objectives ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Scope ................................................................................................................................ 3 2. Description ................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1 Summary Description ...................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Geotechnical Properties ................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Structural Properties......................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Building Conditions ....................................................................................................... 12 2.5 Mechanical Equipment .................................................................................................. 29 2.6 Contents: Inventory of Scientific Equipment ................................................................ 31 2.7 Identification of critical factors affecting inventory: life safety, chemical hazard, importance, and value ................................................................................................................... 56 2.8 Implications of using critical factors to target retrofits .................................................. 58 2.9 Prior anchorage .............................................................................................................. 59 2.10 Summary ........................................................................................................................ 61 3. Components of Methodology to be Tested ............................................................................. 63 4. Seismic Hazard Analysis ........................................................................................................ 64 4.1 Conventional Free-Field Hazard Analysis ..................................................................... 64 4.2 Free-Field Hazard Analysis and Record Selection Based on “Improved IMs” ............. 77 5. Engineering Demand Parameters ............................................................................................ 79 5.1 Structural modeling ........................................................................................................ 79 5.2 Validation of Analytical Models .................................................................................... 83 5.3 Prediction of EDPs ......................................................................................................... 83 6. Damage Analysis .................................................................................................................. 123 6.1 Testing of Nonstructural Components ......................................................................... 123 6.2 Damage Estimation ...................................................................................................... 123 7. Loss Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 125 7.1 Decision Framework .................................................................................................... 125 7.2 Formulation of Loss-Estimation Methodology............................................................ 127 7.2.1 Definition of Operational Units. ......................................................................... 127 7.2.2 Evaluation of the operational decision variable, DVO ........................................ 128 7.2.3 Evaluation of the Life-safety Decision Variable, DVL ....................................... 131 7.3 Mitigation Decision-Making Methodology ................................................................. 132 7.4 Application of Loss-Estimation Methodology............................................................. 134 7.4.1 Major Contributors to Loss ................................................................................. 138 7.4.2 Simplifications .................................................................................................... 138 7.5 Propagation of Uncertainties from IM to DV .............................................................. 138 8. Relation to Current Practice .................................................................................................. 140 iv 8.1 Current Practice of Engineering Evaluation ................................................................ 140 8.2 Engineering Assessment of the PEER PBEE Methodology ........................................ 140 9. Societal Issues and Impact .................................................................................................... 141 9.1 Stakeholders defined and issues described .................................................................. 141 9.2 Engineers vs. Occupants attitude toward loss and contents damage, downtime ......... 141 9.3 Decision Variables that matter ..................................................................................... 141 10. References ............................................................................................................................. 142 Appendix A. Four methods ......................................................................................................... 147 Appendix B. Engineering Demand Parameters .......................................................................... 148 Displacement measures ......................................................................................................... 148 Velocity measures ................................................................................................................. 148 Acceleration measures .......................................................................................................... 148 Structural-deformation measures .......................................................................................... 148 Structural-force measures ..................................................................................................... 149 Additional notation ............................................................................................................... 149 v Index of Figures Figure 1-1. Overview of PEER analysis methodology .................................................................. 4 Figure 2-1. Structural plan view of UCS building .......................................................................... 9 Figure 2-2. Structural elevation view of frame 8 and cross sections of the shear wall ................ 10 Figure 2-3. UC Science Building .................................................................................................. 14 Figure 2-4. Architectural floor plans, basement to 6th floor ........................................................ 15 Figure 2-5. Building sections ........................................................................................................ 16 Figure 2-6. Basement floor plan and space use ............................................................................ 17 Figure 2-7. First-floor plan and space use .................................................................................... 18 Figure 2-8. Second-floor plan and space use ................................................................................ 19 Figure 2-9. Third-floor plan and space use ................................................................................... 20 Figure 2-10. Fourth-floor plan and space use ............................................................................... 21 Figure 2-11. Fifth-floor plan and space use .................................................................................. 22 Figure 2-12. Sixth-floor plan and space use ................................................................................. 23 Figure 2-13. Net and gross space use in the building ................................................................... 24 Figure 2-14. Diagram of structural system ................................................................................... 25 Figure 2-15. Some mechanical systems ........................................................................................ 26 Figure 2-16. Sample interior conditions ....................................................................................... 27 Figure 2-17. Sample interior and exterior conditions ................................................................... 28 Figure 2-18. Typical laboratory layouts........................................................................................ 32 Figure 2-19. Sample laboratory #1 floor plan ............................................................................... 35 Figure 2-20. Sample laboratory #1 floor plan, cont. ..................................................................... 36 Figure 2-21. Sample laboratory #1 relationship between lab, core, and animal space ................. 37 Figure 2-22. Sample laboratory #1 three-dimensional diagram with photos................................ 38 Figure 2-23. Sample laboratory #1 three-dimensional diagram with photos (continued) ............ 39 Figure 2-24. Sample laboratory #1, examples of critical items .................................................... 40 Figure 2-26. Sample laboratory #2, floor plan .............................................................................. 42 vi Figure 2-27. Sample laboratory #2 floor plan (cont.) ................................................................... 43 Figure 2-28. Sample laboratory #2, relationship between lab, core, and animal space ................ 44 Figure 2-29. Sample laboratory #2, three-dimensional diagram with photos............................... 45 Figure 2-30. Sample laboratory #2, three-dimensional diagram with photos (cont.) ................... 46 Figure 2-30. Sample laboratory #2, examples of critical items .................................................... 47 Figure 2-32. Sample laboratory #2, critical items......................................................................... 48 Figure 4-1. Soil Profile at K-net Site Kofu (TTR007). ................................................................ 67 Figure 4-2. Soil Profile at Kik-net Site Hino (TTRH02). ............................................................ 68 Figure 4-3. Variability in the ground motions of each set of ten scaled recordings for the longitudinal and transverse components for each of three ground motion levels................. 72 Figure 4-4. Variability in the ground motions of each set of ten scaled recordings for the vertical component for each of three ground motion levels. ............................................................. 73 Figure 4-5. Comparison of the longitudinal and transverse response spectra averaged over the ten scaled recordings for the 50% in 50 year ground motion level. ..................................... 75 Figure 4-6. Comparison of the longitudinal and transverse response spectra averaged over the ten scaled recordings for the 10% in 50 year ground motion level. ..................................... 76 Figure 4-7. Comparison of the longitudinal and transverse response spectra averaged over the ten scaled recordings for the 2% in 50 year ground motion level. ....................................... 77 Figure 5-1: OpenSees model of UCS building ............................................................................. 80 Figure 5-2: Modeling of shear walls using beam-column elements and rigid elements .............. 81 Figure 5-3: Discretization of the element monitoring sections ..................................................... 82 Figure 5-4: Description of ENT material to simulate soil behavior in OpenSees ........................ 82 Figure 5-5: Spring forces in soil springs (top) and Roof displacement (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years Coyote Lake earthquake recorded at Gilroy #6 (full gravity load is applied) ............. 84 Figure 5-6: Spring forces in soil springs due to 50% in 50 years Coyote Lake earthquake recorded at Gilroy #6 (only 50% of the gravity load is applied) .......................................... 85 Figure 5-7: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Coyote Lake Dam abutment earthquake ............................ 89 Figure 5-8: : Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Coyote Lake Dam abutment earthquake ............................ 90 vii Figure 5-9: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Coyote Lake Dam abutment earthquake ..................................... 91 Figure 5-10: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Gilroy #6 earthquake .......................................................... 92 Figure 5-11: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Gilroy #6 earthquake .......................................................... 93 Figure 5-12: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Gilroy #6 earthquake .................................................................. 94 Figure 5-13: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Fagundes Ranch earthquake ................................................... 95 Figure 5-14: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Fagundes Ranch earthquake ................................................... 96 Figure 5-15: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Fagundes Ranch earthquake ........................................................... 97 Figure 5-16: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Morgan Territory Park earthquake ......................................... 98 Figure 5-17: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Morgan Territory Park earthquake ......................................... 99 Figure 5-18: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Morgan Territory Park earthquake ............................................... 100 Figure 5-19: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Morgan Hill, Anderson Dam Downstream earthquake .......................... 101 Figure 5-20: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Morgan Hill, Anderson Dam Downstream earthquake .......................... 102 Figure 5-21: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Morgan Hill, Anderson Dam Downstream earthquake ................................... 103 Figure 5-22: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #5 earthquake ............................................................... 104 Figure 5-23: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #5 earthquake ............................................................... 105 viii Figure 5-24: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #5 earthquake ....................................................................... 106 Figure 5-25: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #8 earthquake ............................................................... 107 Figure 5-26: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #8 earthquake ............................................................... 108 Figure 5-27: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #8 earthquake ....................................................................... 109 Figure 5-28: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Temblor earthquake ................................................................ 110 Figure 5-29: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Temblor earthquake ................................................................ 111 Figure 5-30: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Temblor earthquake ........................................................................ 112 Figure 5-31: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 10% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake ......................................................................... 113 Figure 5-32: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 10% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake ......................................................................... 114 Figure 5-33: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 10% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake ................................................................................. 115 Figure 5-34: Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 2% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake ........................................................................... 116 Figure 5-35: Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 2% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake ........................................................................... 117 Figure 5-36: Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 2% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake ................................................................................. 118 Figure 7-1. Mitigation effectiveness chart. ................................................................................ 133 ix Index of Tables Table 2-1. Probability of at least one M6.7 event by 2030 ............................................................. 8 Table 2-2: Geometrical properties and the reinforcement schedule of the interior shear wall ..... 11 Table 2-3: Geometrical properties and the reinforcement schedule of the exterior shear wall .... 11 Table 2-4: Coupling beam reinforcement schedule ...................................................................... 12 Table 2-5. Common types of furniture and equipment in the laboratories. ................................. 34 Table 2-6. Value-group designations ........................................................................................... 50 Table 2-7. Life-safety priority levels assigned to furniture and equipment .................................. 51 Table 2-8. Chemical hazard conditions noted in the laboratories ................................................. 53 Table 2-9. Importance measures for equipment and materials in laboratories. ........................... 55 Table 2-10. Data categories for the furniture and equipment inventory ...................................... 57 Table 2-11. Equipment with prior retrofits .................................................................................. 60 Table 4-1. Site uniform hazard spectra, 5% damping, Sa at 0.45 seconds. .................................. 64 Table 4-2. Time histories representing 50% exceedance probability of Sa in 50 years. ............... 66 Table 4-3. Time histories representing 10% and 2% exceedance probability of Sa in 50 years. .. 66 Table 5-1: Summary of 50% in 50 years ground accelerations used for analyses ....................... 86 Table 5-2: Summary of 10% and 2% in 50 years ground accelerations used for analyses .......... 87 Table 5-3: Ground records that induced numerical problem in the nonlinear time-history analyses ............................................................................................................................................... 88 Table 5-4: Various maximum responses of each floor level subjected to different earthquake records with 50% probability of occurance in 50 years. ..................................................... 119 Table 5-5: Various maximum responses of each floor level subjected to Tottori, Kofu earthquake records with 10% and 2% probabilities of occurance in 50 years. ..................................... 122 Table 7-1. Inventory of critical components in MC laboratory. ................................................ 136 Table 7-2. Inventory of life-safety-level-D components in ML laboratory. .............................. 136 Table 7-3. Quantity of Equipment in ML Laboratory by Life-Safety Hazard........................... 137 Table 7-4. Quantity of Equipment in ML Laboratory by Life-Safety Hazard and Equipment Description. ......................................................................................................................... 137 x 1. Introduction Keith A. Porter, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 1.1 Background Three structural design paradigms. Structural design comprises the selection of structural, nonstructural, and geotechnical systems, and their materials and configuration, with the goal of constructing a building, bridge, or other structure that will be safe and economical under foreseeable circumstances. Historically, structural engineers have used allowable-stress design (ASD) and load-and-resistance-factor design (LRFD), which focus on individual structural elements and connections, and seek to ensure that none will experience loads or deformation greater than it is capable of withstanding. An emerging approach, called performance-based design (PBD), seeks to ensure that a designed facility as a whole will perform in some predictable way, in terms of safety and functionality. Seismic aspects of PBD are referred to as performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE). PBEE therefore considers the seismic reliability of the elements and connections, but also directly addresses the facility's earthquake performance from the viewpoint of facility users, owners, and other stakeholders. SEAOC, FEMA, and ASCE PBEE efforts. The PEER Center is not alone in developing PBEE. The Structural Engineers Association of California (SEAOC) created an early sketch of the objectives and methodologies of PBEE, in its Vision 2000 document (Office of Emergency Services, 1995) and Conceptual Framework for Performance-Based Seismic Design (Structural Engineers Association of California, 1999). SEAOC’s approach addresses performance in terms of a continuum from operability, to life safety, to resistance to collapse, under four discrete levels of seismic excitation. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) build upon these documents in their prestandard, ASCE/FEMA 356 (Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2000), which expresses performance in four discrete levels though on much the same terms at four slightly different hazard levels. 1 PEER's PBEE effort. PEER is producing an analysis methodology and a design methodology. (Design encompasses the selection of systems, materials, and components, along with the estimation of performance.) The combined methodology will address seismic performance in terms of damage-repair cost and loss-of-use duration, as well as operability, lifesafety, and collapse potential. The methodology will detail how one can estimate future performance in probabilistic terms, such as via probability distributions on repair costs and lossof-use duration on an annualized or lifetime basis as well as at discrete hazard levels. Thus, the PEER methodology will be the first PBEE approach to provide economic and probabilistic information. One important implication of this innovation is that it will be the first PBEE methodology to inform the single most-common seismic evaluation performed in the seismic regions of the United States: the estimation of probable maximum loss (PML). PEER’s PBEE methodology will improve upon this fairly simplistic metric of seismic risk, to provide more information about the downstream benefits both of seismic retrofit for existing buildings, and of new design to higher performance levels. 1.2 Objectives Purpose of the testbed project. PEER's analysis methodology is currently in development. The testbed project seeks to synthesize disparate university research products of PEER's first five years into a coherent methodology and to demonstrate and exercise that methodology on six real facilities: two buildings (of which this report treats one), two bridges, a campus of buildings, and a network of highway bridges. Engineering practitioners involved in the testbed project compare the new PEER methodology with current practice, to identify strengths and development needs relative to other approaches. This comparison will help to guide our research and ensure that it meets practitioner expectations and capabilities, and that the PEER methodology contributes materially to the value practitioners can offer facility stakeholders. Focus for the UC Science Building testbed. PEER researchers working on this facility are focusing on issues relevant to newer institutional or industrial buildings for which the primary hazard is seismic shaking, and the primary peril is damage to contents such as laboratory equipment, and the consequent loss of use. This study both develops the theoretical basis of the methodology, and illustrates it using the demonstration building. Later study may examine the 2 building under what-if (retrofitted) conditions, using it to test the desirability of various retrofit techniques. Other aspects of the PEER analysis methodology, such as estimating structural and architectural damage, collapse potential, and repair duration, are the focus of the Van Nuys testbed. The interested reader is referred to Van Nuys testbed Committee (in progress). 1.3 Scope Overview. The performance evaluation presented here is performed for a single, real facility, considering regional faults and their seismicity, site soils, the foundation and structural system, the architectural features of the facility, its contents and scientific equipment, and possibly its mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) components as well. The study evaluates the seismic hazard (including creation of a set of ground-motion time histories at three hazard levels), engineering demand (deformations, accelerations, and member forces), contents damage, and the potential for operational failure of the laboratories it houses. We treat how these performance metrics are used in real-world risk-management decision-making. We explicitly address origins and propagation of uncertainty at each step of the analysis. The PEER analysis methodology is summarized in Figure 1-1. As shown in the figure, once the facility has been thoroughly described, the methodology embodies four stages: hazard analysis (the study of how frequently earthquakes occur and how strongly they affect a site), structural analysis (here, the study of how earthquake motion induces forces and deformations in the structure), damage analysis (the relationship between structural response and physical damage), and loss analysis (the relationship between damage and the final measures of performance). The next section summarizes the aspects of this methodology that are examined within the present study. 3 Facility info Hazard analysis Struct'l analysis Damage analysis Loss analysis g[IM|O,D] p[EDP|IM] p[DM|EDP] p[DV|DM] O, D g[IM] p[EDP] p[DM] p[DV] O: Location D: Design IM: intensity measure EDP: engineering demand param. DM: damage measure DV: decision variable Decisionmaking Select O, D Figure 1-1. Overview of PEER analysis methodology Intensity measures. Seismic intensity will be measured initially in terms of damped elastic spectral acceleration response at the building’s small-amplitude fundamental period (Sa). PEER researchers will also test alternative intensity measures (IM). Our objective is to identify an IM that is more strongly correlated with performance, and whose occurrence rates can be readily calculated. That is, the new IM should reduce uncertainty on facility performance, conditioned on hazard level. We illustrate the calculation of probability (or occurrence rate) p[IM], and a methodology for selecting and scaling ground motions with a desired IM. It would desirable to create a probabilistic model of detailed ground motion as a function of IM, i.e., p[GM|IM], but for the present, we treat as equiprobable a set of historic ground-motions recorded at similar sites with approximately similar hazard conditions. Engineering demand parameters. PEER researchers will attempt to identify a limited set of engineering demand parameters (EDP) that are indicative of overall structural response, for use in simplifying design. It is hoped that a single parameter (or perhaps a small set) such as peak transient drift at the top of the structure, will correlate strongly enough with performance that structural designers will not need to explicitly evaluate damage and loss, but merely demonstrate that EDP is less than some allowable level, associated with the desired level of performance. We will elucidate and illustrate a methodology for calculating the conditional probability p[EDP|GM, IM], and given this and p[GM|IM], the probability p[EDP|IM]. One can convolve p[EDP|IM] with p[IM] to produce p[EDP], as illustrated in Figure 1-1, or carry along conditioning on IM until the end of the process, depending on how one wishes to express performance. 4 Damage measures. PEER researchers will create or compile fragility functions for the major damageable contents of the building. Fragility functions give the probability of a facility component reaching or exceeding an undesirable performance level, as a function of excitation. PEER researchers will categorize the building contents in a limited, clearly defined taxonomic system; define relevant physical damage measures (DM) for each category; and create fragility functions for each damage state, p[DM|EDP]. Given this and p[EDP], we will elucidate and illustrate the calculation of p[DM]. Again, conditioning on IM can be carried though the process, so the product of the damage analysis can also by p[DM|IM]. Decision variables. These decision variables (DV) measure overall facility performance in terms most relevant to facility stakeholders. For the building owner considered here, DV is most likely to include the operational failure of the scientific laboratories housed in the building. This study elucidates and illustrates a methodology for calculating p[DV|DM] and, given p[DM], the calculation of p[DV]. If one retains conditioning on IM, the product of this stage is expressed as p[DM|IM], which represents the generic case of a seismic vulnerability function. It can measure performance at discrete hazard levels, as in the ASCE/FEMA methodology. One can then convolve with IM to produce p[DV], which can measure per-event, per-year, or lifetime performance, depending on how hazard is expressed. Decision-making implications. While financial decision-making is not a primary focus of PEER’s effort, we recognize that to define and estimate DV correctly, we must understand how the DV is used in financial practice. This study therefore examines the decision-making practices of typical stakeholders of such a building, and illustrates how the DV estimates produced here could inform an owner’s risk-management decisions. Uncertainty. We identify the major sources of uncertainty in p[DV], quantifying the contribution at each step from IM, GM, EDP, and DM to DV, considering propagation and correlation. We identify the sources of uncertainty that are most significant in this situation, and those that can be neglected. Of the major contributors, we identify opportunities for reducing uncertainty by additional data-gathering or by changes in modeling. In other situations, such as an older commercial building, a building on a site with significant potential for ground failure, or a bridge, different sources of uncertainty may be more important. The larger PEER effort will seek to categorize a variety of such situations and identify important sources of uncertainty in each. 5 2. Description Mary C. Comerio, Tae-Hyung Lee, Khalid M. Mosalam, University of California, Berkeley Paul Somerville, URS Corporation, Pasadena, CA 2.1 Summary Description The UC Science Building studied for this testbed is a modern reinforced-concrete spaceframe building completed in 1988 to provide high-technology research laboratories for organismal biology. The building is 203,800 square feet overall, with 122,000 assignable (net useable) square feet of research laboratories, animal facilities, offices and related support spaces. The building is six stories plus a basement, and is rectangular in plan with overall dimensions of approximately 306 feet in the longitudinal direction (oriented N16.5W) and 105 feet in the transverse direction. The basement is contained within the periphery of the building. The single level below grade avoids problems of a high water table and the costly underpinning of an adjacent building. The vertical load-carrying system consists of a complete reinforced-concrete space frame. The floor structure is a waffle slab on every level and is composed of a 4-½ inch thick reinforced concrete slab supported on 20-inch deep joists in each direction. The waffle slab is supported by reinforced-concrete girders, which in turn are supported by reinforced-concrete columns. The typical bay spacing is 20’-0” in the longitudinal direction and 22’-10” in the transverse direction. The foundations consist of a 38-inch deep continuous mat foundation. The building was designed to meet the 1982 Uniform Building Code (International Conference of Building Officials, 1982), and is classified as C2 Building Type 9—Concrete Shear Wall (Both Directions). The structure was evaluated in 1997 as part of a campus effort to estimate the seismic response of and potential damage to campus buildings. In an earthquake with a 50% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the building was ranked Operational, at level 8 on the 10-level scale of performance as outlined in Vision 2000 (Office of Emergency Services, 1995). In this scenario, the building is expected to have minor cracking in exterior pier and 6 spandrel elements, as well as minor cracking in coupling beams in transverse shearwalls. In an earthquake with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the building was ranked Operational, at level 7. In this scenario, the building might have significant repairable cracking in coupling beams and exterior piers, spandrels, and end framing, as well as minor repairable cracking in the waffle slabs. In a very rare earthquake, one with 10% exceedance probability in 100 years, the building was ranked Life-Safe, at level 6. In this scenario, fracture of coupling beams is possible, and major cracking in shear walls, waffle slabs, and end framing, but collapse is prevented. The building was rated “good” in the UC rating system and was not considered to be in need of any structural retrofits (University of California, Berkeley, 1997). This testbed building was built as part of a larger campus plan to upgrade research and teaching facilities in the biological sciences. This building provides laboratory space for more than 40 faculty members. It is designed with a central core of mechanical rooms, circulation, and shared storage and equipment rooms. A loop circulation plan connects the eight to ten laboratories on the east and west sides of the building. Offices are within the laboratories. These are designed in a modular format so that a laboratory/office space can expand or contract by adding or removing a module along the corridor. Although the building was planned with all laboratories in a standard configuration, the laboratories undergo regular remodels to accommodate new research techniques and equipment. Two floors are dedicated to animal facilities. Overall, 82% of the net area is dedicated to laboratory and animal facilities. The remainder of the space is for offices, administration space, conference rooms, stockrooms, and other support facilities. 2.2 Geotechnical Properties Site conditions. The site conditions at the UC Berkeley campus are summarized by Geomatrix Consultants (2000). The UC Science Building is located at a site consisting of stiff soil of thickness in the range of 6 to 16 meters, with an estimated average of about 12 meters, above Franciscan bedrock. No seismic-velocity profiles are available. The Franciscan rocks underlying the central campus are assumed to be not pervasively sheared, and to have a shear wave velocity of about 0.9 km/sec. Older alluvium overlies the Franciscan rocks at the site. The alluvium typically comprises very stiff sandy clay, with average standard penetration resistance values of 50 or greater, and estimated shear wave velocity of about 0.37 km/sec. The site is thus classified as NEHRP category Sc. 7 Nearby faults, earthquake history. The Hayward Fault traverses the UC Berkeley campus, with a trace within 2900 ft (900 m) of the testbed building. The Hayward Fault is active, with an average slip rate of 9 mm/yr. The latest rupture of its southern segment (Fremont to somewhere between San Leandro and Berkeley) occurred on 21 Oct 1868, producing a M7 earthquake. Trenching data suggest that the southern segment has an average earthquake recurrence interval of at most 370 years (Kelson et al., 2000). The northern section (to Pinole) appears not to have ruptured during the written history of the area, i.e., not for at least 220 years (Hayward Fault Paleoearthquake Group, 1999). It is believed capable of producing a M7 event with an average recurrence interval of no more than 710 years, and possibly less than 270 years. The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (1999) estimates a 17% probability of an event at least M6.7 on the Southern Hayward by 2030; 16% on the Northern Hayward Fault. Other faults that could cause damaging earthquakes include the San Andreas (30 km distant, M ≤ 8.0), Calaveras (20 km, M ≤ 7.2), Concord-Green Valley (22 km, M ≤ 6.8), Mt Diablo Thrust (16 km, M ≤ 6.7), Greenville (30 km, M ≤ 7.2), Rodgers Creek (32 km, M ≤ 7.1), and San Gregorio (36 km, M ≤ 7.5). Table 2-1 summarizes the Working Group’s estimated probabilities of earthquakes M ≥ 6.7 in the San Francisco Bay Area by 2030. Table 2-1. Probability of at least one M6.7 event by 2030 Fault Probability Hayward/Rodgers Creek San Andreas Calaveras San Gregorio Concord/Green Valley Greenville Mt. Diablo 2.3 32% 21% 18% 10% 6% 6% 4% Structural Properties General. The gravity load-carrying system of the UC Science Building consists of a reinforced concrete space frame, as shown in Figure 2-1 which includes the global geometry and span dimensions. The lateral force-resisting system consists of coupled shear walls in the transverse direction (approximately normal to the Hayward fault) and perforated shear walls in the longitudinal direction. The floors consist of waffle slab systems with solid parts acting as 8 integral beams between the columns. The building foundation consists of mat foundation with 38" thickness. 203'-0" N 20'-9" 3@20'=60' 20'-9" 20'-9" 3@20'=60' 20'-9" A 19'-9" 22'-10" 19'-4" 22'-10" 19'-9" 104'-6" 16o 33' B D E G H 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 101'-6" Figure 2-1. Structural plan view of UCS building The modeling of the UCS building is conducted on two levels. In the first, twodimensional analysis is performed to investigate the seismic response of the middle frame (labeled 8 in Figure 2-1). The second analysis will consider three-dimensional modeling of the entire UCS building under multi-directional ground motion. The discussion in the subsequent sections pertains to the two-dimensional modeling configuration. Geometrical Properties. Figure 2-2 presents the structural elevation view of frame 8 (as identified in Figure 1) of the UCS building and indicates the story heights and the different labeling of the building levels. All interior columns of the UCS building are square with dimensions 24" with transverse reinforcement in the form of #4@8" closed ties. The longitudinal reinforcing bars of the interior columns vary with the levels of the building; 12#11 are used for the columns between the foundation level and level 1, 12#10 are used for the columns between levels 1 and 3, and 8#8 are used for the columns between levels 3 and the roof. The cross sections of the shear walls are shown in Figure 2-2 where all the geometrical properties and 9 reinforcement schedules of the interior (between axes D and E) and exterior (between axes A and D and E and H) walls are summarized in Table 2-2. and Table 2-3, respectively. The coupling beams between the shear walls are 48" wide and 241/2" deep for all levels with the reinforcement schedule given in Table 2-4.. In addition to the reinforcement in Table 2-4., the coupling beams have transverse reinforcement #5@6" (6 branches) in the form of three sets of closed stirrups. A B D E G H 20'-5" Roof 13'-6" Level 6 13'-6" Level 5 13'-6" 110'-11" Level 4 13'-6" Level 3 13'-6" Level 2 18'-6" Level 1 19'-9" 14'-10" 8' 19'-4" 8' 14'-10" 19'-9" 104'-6" Figure 2-2. Structural elevation view of frame 8 and cross sections of the shear wall 10 Table 2-2. Geometrical properties and the reinforcement schedule of the interior shear wall b1 b1 t 24" WC1 WC1 21'-4" Column WC1 Wall b1 (in.) Long. reinf. Trans. Reinf. t (in.) Reinf.* 6th story 5th story 4th story 3rd story 2nd story 1st story Basement 24 24 24 24 24 33 33 8#8 8#8 8#8 8#8 8#8 12#9 14#11 #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@4" #4@4" 14 14 14 14 16 18 18 #5@6" #5@6" #6@6" #6@6" #7@6" #7@6" #7@6" * Reinforcements in both of the horizontal and vertical directions Table 2-3. Geometrical properties and the reinforcement schedule of the exterior shear wall b2 b3 t b4 t WC2 WC3 19'-9" 6th story 5th story 4th story 3rd story 2nd story 1st story Basement t WC2 24" 15'-10" Column depth (in.) b3 b4 WC2 b2 t WC3 15'-10" WC2 WC2 19'-9" WC3 Wall b2 b3 b4 Long. reinf. Trans. reinf. Long. reinf. Trans. reinf. t (in.) Reinf.* 25 25 31 37 44 49 49 24 24 24 24 24 30 30 24 24 29 25 42 47 47 8#8 8#8 12#8 12#9 16#10 22#10 26#10 #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@4" #4@4" 8#8 8#8 8#8 8#8 8#8 12#9 12#9 #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@8" #4@4" #4@4" 14 14 14 14 16 18 18 #5@6" #5@6" #6@6" #6@6" #7@6" #7@6" #7@6" * Reinforcements in both of the horizontal and vertical directions 11 Table 2-4.: Coupling beam reinforcement schedule 4.5" Bar type "a" Top & Bottom Bar type "b" 24.5" 20" 48" 6th story 5th story 4th story 3rd story 2nd story 1st story Basement Type “a” Type “b” 9#10 9#10 10#11 10#11 11#11 10#11 10#11 3#7 3#7 3#8 3#8 3#8 3#8 3#8 Material Properties. According to the design specifications, the concrete of the shear walls and the coupling beams has nominal 28-day compressive strength of f c ' 5 ksi . On the other hand, the concrete for the interior columns and the waffle slab systems has nominal strength of f c ' 3 ksi . The reinforcing steel is scheduled as ASTM A-615 Grade 40 for #4 and smaller bars and Grade 60 for #5 and larger bars. 2.4 Building Conditions Architectural Features: The UC Science Building studied for this research is a modern concrete building completed in 1988 to provide high technology research laboratories for organismal biology. The building is 203,800 square feet overall, with 122,000 assignable (net useable) square feet of research laboratories, animal facilities, offices and related support spaces. The building is six stories plus a basement, and is rectangular in plan with overall dimensions of approximately 306 feet in the longitudinal (north-south) direction and 105 feet in the transverse 12 (east-west) direction. The basement is contained within the periphery of the building. The single level below grade avoids problems of a high water table and the costly underpinning of an adjacent building. This building was built as part of a larger campus plan to upgrade research and teaching facilities in the biological sciences. This building provides laboratory space for more than 40 faculty members. The building is designed with a central core of mechanical rooms, circulation, and shared storage and equipment rooms. A loop circulation plan connects the eight to ten laboratories on the east and west sides of the building. An internal corridor provides a secondary circulation system within the laboratories. Research offices are situated within the laboratories. The laboratories are designed in a modular format so that a laboratory or office space may expand or contract by adding or removing a module along the corridor. Although the building was planned with all laboratories in a standard configuration, the laboratories undergo regular remodels to accommodate new research techniques and equipment. Two secure floors— the basement and the sixth floor—are dedicated to animal facilities. A total of 82% of the net area is used for laboratory and animal facilities. The remainder of the space is for offices, administration space, conference rooms, stockrooms, and other support facilities. Figure 2-3 through Figure 2-17 provide a graphic description of the building in plan and section, including exterior and interior finishes, structural and mechanical systems. The building’s exterior is simple, with cast-in-place concrete panels, with a light sandblast finish. The windows have a painted extruded aluminum frame with solar grey glass. The rooftop mechanical penthouse is set back from the walls. Ceramic roof tiles are used as a mechanical screen, but the roof is made of a built-up bituminous roofing system with layers of asphalt and fiberglass felt, covered with black gravel. Inside the building uses steel-stud (3-5/8” x 25 gauge metal) and gypsum partition walls to divide laboratories. Typically ceilings are open with exposed mechanical piping in the laboratories. Some offices contain acoustical drop-ceilings, and the corridors have a metal-grid hanging ceiling to cover mechanical equipment. Floors are either vinyl tile or exposed concrete. The floors are not impermeable to toxic spills. 13 Figure 2-3. UC Science Building 14 Figure 2-4. Architectural floor plans, basement to 6th floor 15 Figure 2-5. Building sections 16 Figure 2-6. Basement floor plan and space use 17 Figure 2-7. First-floor plan and space use 18 Figure 2-8. Second-floor plan and space use 19 Figure 2-9. Third-floor plan and space use 20 Figure 2-10. Fourth-floor plan and space use 21 Figure 2-11. Fifth-floor plan and space use 22 Figure 2-12. Sixth-floor plan and space use 23 Figure 2-13. Net and gross space use in the building 24 Figure 2-14. Diagram of structural system 25 Figure 2-15. Some mechanical systems 26 Figure 2-16. Sample interior conditions 27 Figure 2-17. Sample interior and exterior conditions Structural Features: The vertical load carrying system consists of a reinforced concrete frame. The floor structure is a waffle slab on every level and is composed of a 4 ½ inch thick concrete slab supported on 20 inch deep joists in each direction. The waffle slab is supported by concrete girders which in turn are supported by concrete columns. The typical bay spacing in 28 20’-0” in the longitudinal direction and 22’-10” in the transverse direction. The foundations consist of a 38 inch deep continuous mat foundation. The building was designed to meet the 1982 Uniform Building Code, and is classified as C2 Building Type 9—Concrete Shear Wall. The structure was evaluated in 1997 as part of a campus effort to predict the seismic response and potential damage to campus buildings. In a moderate earthquake, defined as an earthquake with a 50% chance of exceedance in 50 years, the building was ranked Operational, at level 8 on the 10 level scale of performance as outlined by the Structural Engineers Association of California in Vision 2000 (Hamburger et al., 1995). In this scenario, the building is expected to have minor cracking in exterior pier and spandrel elements, as well as minor cracking in coupling beams in transverse walls. In a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault, the building was ranked Operational, at level 7 on the 10 level scale. In this scenario, the building might have significant repairable cracking in coupling beams and exterior piers, spandrels, and end framing, as well as minor repairable cracking in the waffle slabs. In a very rare earthquake, a magnitude 7.25 on the Hayward fault, the building was ranked Life-Safe, at level 6. In this scenario, there could be possible fracture of coupling beams and major cracking in shear walls, waffle slabs, and end framing, but collapse is prevented. The building was rated “good” in the UC rating system and was not considered to be in need of any structural retrofits (UCB, 1997). 2.5 Mechanical Equipment Light fixtures are florescent, suspended and modular. The mechanical systems are sophisticated to allow for specialized air changes and temperature controls in certain research settings and animal holding areas. Separate systems for de-ionized water, and other chemicals are designed into the mechanical services for laboratories. All laboratories have emergency eyewashes, showers and fume hoods. HVAC: The building is air conditioned, with separate air handling systems and fans for lobbies, conference rooms, and offices; laboratories, and animal holding rooms. All are designed to meet CEC Title 24 requirements. Animal rooms have an independent collected exhaust system with pre-filters at each room inlet. Laboratories with hoods have a manifold exhaust system with vertical riser shafts, and negative pressure is maintained. Special purpose hoods have independent exhausts, as do glass-washing and cage cleaning rooms. Two water-cooled 29 chillers provide for cooling. Steam is taken from the existing central plant, but new steam-to-hot water heat exchangers are in the building. Electrical System: Service to the building is provided at 12.47 KV. Three phase transformers to bring the power down to 480/277V are on the roof. Additional transformation down is accomplished on each floor. One 600W generator is on the ground floor outside to supply 277/480V emergency power to critical loads, however, there is concern that this system is not monitored and is overloaded. A 12-in-wide cable tray system runs on each side of the building, supported on a utility trapeze. Utility drops to each lab bench are made through conduit. The building has a multizone, combination detection and alarm, Class B, two-wire fire alarm system. Smoke detectors are in elevator lobbies, equipment rooms, and HVAC ducts. Manual pull stations, water flow switches, horns and bells are connected to a central control panel. The main building and laboratories are tied to the university central alarm system, while local alarm systems are used in basement animal rooms. Seismic Performance of Systems: Although not the main target of this study, the traditional nonstructural systems of the building, such as mechanical, electrical, and plumbing, also have an important influence on post-earthquake usability of the building. A visual survey of these systems was performed by the consulting engineers in February 2002 to determine if they were, in general, installed in accordance to seismic requirements of the building code. The purpose of this evaluation was to determine if any severe seismic deficiencies existed that would override any consideration of performance of the laboratory contents. The engineering survey (conducted by Rutherford and Chekene) covered the normal systems associated with initial construction of a laboratory building. They can be categorized as follows: Ducts and piping, including HVAC, plumbing, and chemical, both in functional spaces and in mechanical rooms. Rooftop mechanical equipment, including chillers. Floor mounted mechanical equipment, including HVAC and other mechanical. Floor mounted electrical equipment, including cabinets and transformers. Tanks, including single and multiple compressed gases and water tanks. Suspended equipment, including HVAC and electrical. 30 The engineer’s evaluation revealed that the building systems feature an unusually high level of compliance with code seismic anchorage and bracing requirements. In fact, the level of anchorage and bracing of nonstructural systems is more complete than what is considered average for this vintage of building, and low damage levels can be expected, at least in moderate shaking. However, in general, the seismic bracing installed for the larger pipe systems is judged relatively ineffective, and could lead to more than expected damage to those systems, as well as a greater chance of “water damage” to contents. The building walk-through also indicated that the emergency generator housed in a separate small building near the Southeast corner of the building was apparently installed after the building was complete and was not provided adequate seismic protection. Until retrofitted, power from this generator should not be counted on after moderate to strong shaking. 2.6 Contents: Inventory of Scientific Equipment The building contents are typical of a wet laboratory: lab benches with storage shelving above, and very densely packed equipment. The laboratories were designed using three modular plans for the arrangement of laboratory benches, sinks, storage, and office space (see Figure 2-18). Each of these provides a standard configuration of parallel laboratory benches against or between walls. Those set against a wall have cabinets or shelves above the bench, attached to the wall. Heavy fixed equipment, such as a fume hood, is typically located against the wall. The benches within the open space are designed as a back-to-back set of laboratory benches with a sink or other shared feature at the end, and open shelves built on a Unistrut system above. Research offices are separated from the main laboratory space by partitions and typically accessed from the internal corridor. This modular laboratory design seems to work well in the biological sciences where the research depends on a conventional arrangement of bench-top equipment, microscopes, and computers combined with refrigerators and freezers for storage of samples. 31 Figure 2-18. Typical laboratory layouts There are approximately 10,500 items of furniture (lab benches, wall shelves, desk units, etc.) and equipment (tanks, cylinders, microscopes, computers, and other bench-top equipment, 32 as well as heavy equipment such as refrigerators, freezers, incubators, fume hoods, etc.) Fortyfour percent of the contents can be classified as furniture and 56% is equipment. Although there may be many different types of microscopes, roto-baths, freezers, etc., there are only about 15 different types of furniture and 95 different categories of equipment in the building. The top five most numerous furniture types, and the top fifteen most numerous equipment types are shown in Table 2-5. It is interesting to note that if all the standard types of computer equipment (CPUs, monitors, printers, fax and copy machines) are added together, these represent some 1300 items (12% of the total and 22% of the equipment). Refrigerators and freezers, together comprise 4.5% of the total and 8% of the equipment, followed by centrifuges and microscopes, each representing about 3% of the total contents and 5% of the equipment. 33 Table 2-5. Common types of furniture and equipment in the laboratories. Furniture type Number of items Shelving unit Workbench Cabinet Desk File cabinet Other Total furniture 2,022 674 614 553 385 352 4,600 Equipment type Number of items Monitor CPU Refrigerator Centrifuge Microscope Equipment rack Mixer Printer Water bath Power supply Incubator Gas cylinder Freezer Fume hood Stirrer Other Total equipment 557 544 349 319 279 273 266 212 141 139 131 122 119 104 102 2,243 5,900 Each laboratory was documented in drawings and in a database during the spring and summer of 2001. The plans and equipment lists of two sample laboratories are described in Figure 2-19 through Figure 2-30, with addition detail provided in Table 2-6 and Table 2-7. The detailed information presented in this report represents a snapshot in time. Equipment may have been added or changed. Some laboratories may have moved since then. However, the goal of the research—to understand the issues in a nonstructural retrofit of a laboratory building—is not dependant on an exact representation of each laboratory, but on the aggregate understanding of the patterns of equipment use and the typical conditions in laboratory buildings. 34 Figure 2-19. Sample laboratory #1 floor plan 35 Figure 2-20. Sample laboratory #1 floor plan, cont. 36 Figure 2-21. Sample laboratory #1 relationship between lab, core, and animal space 37 Figure 2-22. Sample laboratory #1 three-dimensional diagram with photos 38 Figure 2-23. Sample laboratory #1 three-dimensional diagram with photos (continued) 39 Figure 2-24. Sample laboratory #1, examples of critical items 40 Table 2-6. Sample laboratory #1, critical items. Room Sub Key Equipment 341 341 341 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 345 C C C C A A A B P WS-1-2 I K M N C G J K L M B E E M N WB-2 WS-3 WS-3 WS-4 WS-4 Low Temp Incubator Fume Hood Open Shelving CPU Monitor CPU Monitor Incubator Refrigerator Incubator Freezer Centrifuge Refrigerator Refrigerator Fume Hood Fume Hood Refrigerator Refrigerator Work Bench Open Shelving Open Shelving Open Shelving Open Shelving Life safety Value Importance B C A/SL B B B B C D* D D D D D C C D D A A/SL A/SL A/SL A/SL 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 Y Chem. hazard CH/A CH/A Y Y Y Y Y Y Y CH/A CH/A CH/A CH/A CH/A CH/A CH/A Note: Items designated as life safety, valuable, important, and chemical-hazard are 14% of local laboratory contents. (Critical items may also be located in related spaces.) * Only life-safety category D is shown in Figure 21. 41 Figure 2-25. Sample laboratory #2, floor plan 42 Figure 2-26. Sample laboratory #2 floor plan (cont.) 43 Figure 2-27. Sample laboratory #2, relationship between lab, core, and animal space 44 Figure 2-28. Sample laboratory #2, three-dimensional diagram with photos 45 Figure 2-29. Sample laboratory #2, three-dimensional diagram with photos (cont.) 46 Figure 2-30. Sample laboratory #2, examples of critical items 47 Figure 2-31. Sample laboratory #2, critical items 48 Table 2-7. Sample laboratory #2, critical items Room Sub Key Equipment Life Safety Value Importance 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 261 265 265 265 265 265 269/271 269/271 244 B B B C C Core I N Q F O O E F OS 1-5 A D E F R B C H D* C D B C C D C A/SL C C D D C D D C 5 6 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 244 Core J C 2 Y 244 Core K C 2 Y 244 244 244 244 248 248 248 248 248 248 26 26 690 690 690 690 690 690 Core Core Core Core Core Core Core Core Core Core Basemt. Basemt. Basemt. Basemt. Basemt. Basemt. Basemt. Basemt. I L B C G B C E K L B F-H A-C A-C A-C A-E A-B A-B Con Focal Microscope DNA Sequencer Cyrotone Cabinet Fume Hood Fume Hood Freezer Gas Cylinder Open Shelving Centrifuge Freezer –20 Refrigerator Refrigerator Fume Hood Refrigerator Refrigerator BioCabinet/ Fume Hood BioCabinet/ Fume Hood BioCabinet/ Fume Hood Freezer Incubator Incubator Centrifuge Freezer Freezer Freezer Freezer Water Tank Water Tank Racks Racks Racks Racks Racks Racks Racks Racks D D D D C D D D D D B B C C C C C C 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Chem haz CH/A CH/A CH/A CH/A CH/A Y CH/A Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Note: items designated as life safety, valuable, important, and chemical hazard are 13% of local lab contents. Critical items in related spaces are included below. Value: The database listing each item was assembled by drawing and photographing each laboratory in order to document the equipment’s location within the laboratory. The type of equipment was noted as well as the manufacturer, model number, size, and estimated weight. Using the campus equipment purchase records the value of each item was coded on a 1 to 7 scale 49 as outlined in Table 2-8. This categorization allowed the data to be sorted by ranges of value, rather than exact purchase prices. Table 2-8. Value-group designations Designation 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Range of value Room Empty Zero to $5,000 $5,000 to $10,000 $10,000 to $20,000 $20,000 to $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 $100,000 to $250,000 $250,000 to $1,000,000 Average cost per item $0 $3,000 $7,500 $15,000 $35,000 $75,000 $175,000 $400,000 The total value of the equipment in the building is about $21 million. This represents all scheduled equipment costing over $1,500 (BETS, 2001). Other equipment (valued less than $1,500) could add another 10% to the total value. Ninety percent of the items are valued between $2,000 and $5,000 (see Figure 29). The majority of these are the bench-top microscopes, stirrers, mixers, and other small equipment. The remaining 10% of the equipment range in value from $10,000 to $1 million. There are only 3 confocal microscopes in the building—valued at $500,000 each—serving unique research needs. Since completing the inventory, however, three laser tables with visualization computers, valued at $1.2 million, have been purchased by researchers. [Figure 29 near here] Life Safety: Two assessments were made to evaluate the degree to which each item represented a life-safety hazard. The first evaluated direct life safety, that is, risk of injury from the impact of a moving/falling object. Life safety can be threatened by heavy objects falling or tipping directly onto occupants, or by sliding or tipping into a position to block egress from a work area. The second assessment was on indirect life safety issues, that is, from the release of hazardous materials, either directly by broken containment, or by two or more released materials combining to create a hazardous substance or fire. The first assessment of life safety hazards was done by Rutherford and Chekene, consulting engineers. Each item in the database was coded as a potential falling hazard. The categories described in Table 6 are aimed at prevention of serious injury. Being struck by a 20 50 pound object falling from 5 feet or more from the floor clearly could cause a death, but is more likely to cause a serious injury. The break-point of 20 pounds is somewhat arbitrary, but based on the State of California’s code governing hospital construction. The matrix in Table 2-9 demonstrates how the life safety priority and the risk will increase from the upper left to the lower right. The locations that qualified as low, medium, or high risk were defined for consistent application. For example, a low risk item might be floormounted with a low aspect ratio, while a high risk item could be directly overhead. Note that the weight cutoffs are arbitrary and must be set by judgment. Those shown here are weights used for similar priority settings in building codes. Table 2-9. Life-safety priority levels assigned to furniture and equipment Location Weight < 20 pounds 20-400 pounds > 400 pounds Low Medium High A B C B C C C C D Importance levels A through D in Table 2-9 are defined as follows: A: No specific anchorage requirement; low priority. B: Anchorage using a standard commercially available product, installed by users or maintenance staff; moderate priority C: Anchorage using a standardized conceptual detail, customized by trained staff or professionals for the particular condition; high priority D: Anchorage designed by professionals for the specific situation; highest priority For the assessment of indirect life safety hazards, a specialist from the campus office of Environment, Health and Safety (EH&S) visited each laboratory and noted potential associated chemical and biological hazards. This review was focused on conditions which could be hazardous in the event of an earthquake, separate from the regular EH&S inspections conducted to enforce basic safety standards. In the review undertaken for this study, associated chemical hazards were noted when hazardous materials could cause contamination, fire, release of 51 poisonous gasses, or other life-threatening conditions. Table 2-10 provides list of the conditions cited. Overall there were 333 conditions cited. These were coded as to whether the remediation was administrative (e.g. moving the substance to a safer location) or whether some retrofit was required. 52 Table 2-10. Chemical hazard conditions noted in the laboratories Code Description 2C Secondary containment required A/B Acids stored with bases CI No chemical inventory Explanation Liquids greater than 1 gallon in size must have a chemically compatible secondary container that could prevent a potential spill from spreading to other chemicals or to the environment. Acids and bases could mix with a violent reaction and/or a release of poisonous gas. Federal, state, and local laws require that all hazardous materials (including all compressed gases) must be registered in a chemical inventory. The EH&S Chemical Inventory database is the UC Berkeley repository of this information which is essential for appropriate emergency response actions. Hazardous chemicals used or stored in any machine or device that could potentially spill during an earthquake due to the device rupturing or falling. Secure the chemicals or device to prevent a spill. Flammable liquids should be secured and/or secondarily contained to avoid the potential for them falling or spilling near an ignition source (including electrical equipment). Oxidizers will ignite flammables (sometimes explosively) if they are mixed. CP Chemical process spill potential FL Flammable liquids may spill/ignite F/O Flammables stored with oxidizers GC Gas cylinder not Gas cylinders must be secured with double chains or non-combustible secured straps to prevent them from falling and rupturing. If a compressed gas cylinder valve breaks off, the cylinder could "torpedo" with a high force. HiC Corrosives Corrosives could damage eyes and cause blindness if spilled. Store above eye-level corrosives below eye-level. HiR Reactives stored Reactive chemicals can ignite or explode if shocked by a fall (or if high above heated while confined). Store reactives in a secure, low-to-ground ground location to minimize the potential fall force. HT Highly toxic Highly toxic chemicals may be fatally poisonous if spilled. Minimize chemical spill the spill potential for highly toxic chemicals by storing them in a secure, potential low-to-ground location. OC Open container All hazardous chemical containers (including waste collection bottles) must be closed when not actively in use. Seg Chemicals not Store chemicals segregated by hazard characteristics so that segregated by incompatible chemicals are separated and will not mix. Do not store hazard incompatible chemicals alphabetically. WR Water reactive Water reactive chemicals can react violently or explosively with water or near water other aqueous chemical solutions. Store these chemicals away from source sources of water, including water pipes and fire sprinklers. 53 In the database, each item was coded as a life-safety priority, A, B, C, or D, or as a chemical hazard requiring administrative attention (Ch-A) or requiring an actual retrofit (Ch-R). The engineers also noted the items which had a shelf lip, because so many of the life safety issues were related to items on shelves. This size is not a function of any seismic anchorage requirements in the building code. The typical shelf lip height derives from life-safety requirements normally enforced by the fire marshal to protect against fire hazards (LBNL, 2000). In the UC Science Building, there are four types of items typically found on the shelves: glassware, chemicals, equipment and books. Although we did not inventory these, observation by the research team and building occupants suggest that the shelf contents are equally divided among these four groups. Figure 30 provides the number and percent of items in each life safety category, as well as the number and percent of items in each category which are related to shelf lips. While more than one third (36%) of the items are categorized C, D, or Ch, only 4% are a function of inadequate shelf lips. [Figure 30 near here.] Importance: As the surveys of the laboratories were conducted, the study team spoke with researchers in the laboratories, to get an understanding of the kind of work they did. These conversations led to a more formal survey of research faculty and/or their lab managers to ascertain which of the items in their laboratories were critical to their research. The survey provided examples of importance measures (see Table 2-11), and asked researchers to list the equipment, data, animals, and storage systems that were critical to their ability to work. Responses were received from more than 50% of the laboratories. For those that did not respond after repeated requests, we used the pre-existing list of items to be checked in an emergency situation (on file with the building manager) as a guide to what was considered important in that lab. Animals which have been genetically designed and bred, or those whose conditions would be difficult to replicate were also designated as important. Further, all shared equipment in the building core was designated as important because it serves numerous laboratories. Overall, about 500 items are rated as critical to continuing research. Of these, about 30% are genetically designed animals, 20% are refrigerators and freezers containing fragile cell lines, 15% are 54 microscopes, and 15% are computers (referred to as CPUs in the survey) where current data is stored. Table 2-11. Importance measures for equipment and materials in laboratories. Measure Equipment replacement cost Equipment replacement time (weeks, months) Data or material replacement cost Data or material replacement time (weeks, months) Irreplaceability Interruption sensitivity (can tolerate none, or very little) Loss of research benefits (income, salutary applications) Related hazards that may occasion long clean-up periods (chemicals, biohazard) 55 2.7 Identification of critical factors affecting inventory: life safety, chemical hazard, importance, and value Together, the detailed drawings documenting the equipment in each laboratory and the database provide a mechanism for understanding the number and types of equipment as well as the issues involved in planning for the seismic retrofit of laboratory contents. Table 2-12 provides a complete list of all the categories of data about each item. Several factors appear to be critical to the ongoing function of a research laboratory. These are importance, value, life safety, and associated chemical hazards. Any item designated important by the researcher is essential to continued research— whether it is an animal or a cell line that took years to develop or whether it is customized equipment. Similarly, high value equipment may require a long lead time for purchase, or may require specialized equipment funding not always available to researchers. Life safety designations C or D imply real hazards to the occupants of the laboratories. Likewise, chemical hazards affect not only the occupants, but also the larger community. Equally important, a chemical spill could add months or years to a building being out of service after an earthquake (even if the building has no damage) as a result of the time needed for clean-up. 56 Table 2-12. Data categories for the furniture and equipment inventory Data category Lab name Room number Sub-number Equipment key (to drawings) Equipment name Equipment manufacturer* Equipment model number* Equipment information* Weight (estimate if greater than 50 pounds) Life safety hazard code Chemical hazard (yes/no)** Estimated value (by category) Importance (yes/no) Retrofit attempt (yes/no) Quantity * Included when available ** If chemical hazard is noted, additional data includes: finding number, location, lab name, date, finding code, and a detailed description of the conditions. Only 1,287 items (about 10%) are tagged as important, chemical hazard, and life safety category D. With life safety category C, the total goes to 3,993 items. The high-value category was found to be a subset of those designated important. There are only 65 items in the building valued greater than $20,000. Thus, the combination of important, chemical hazard, life-safety hazard C and D, and value category 4 through 7, puts the number of items that could be considered critical to operations at 40% of the total contents in the building (see Figure 32). Thus, 40% of the contents are tools and specimens that are critical to research, valuable and hard to replace, a threat to life safety, or some combination. If this subset of items were to be seismically anchored, the overall benefit to limiting downtime would be significant. These should become a first priority in any plan to retrofit contents. Although it may be ideal to consider anchoring every item in a laboratory, it may not be practical or cost effective. [Figure 32 near here.] The research team was initially surprised by the fact that 83% of the equipment in the building had a replacement cost of less than $10,000. However, the majority of bench-top 57 equipment in biological research is small, and lab staff and students need many more ordinary microscopes and mixers than they need high-tech optics. Although we have powerful examples of devastating losses to laboratory contents in past earthquakes, such as the loss of the Chemistry Building at Cal State Northridge in 1994, there is no statistical data on contents losses from past earthquakes. Ideally, we would like to develop a cost/benefit calculation to make the case for contents retrofitting, but there is no fragility information available to do such analysis. Preliminary results from shake table tests of bench-top equipment suggest that the earthquake motions are amplified one to two times at the bench, and that unanchored objects will slide into other equipment or off the bench (Hutchinson, 2003). The tests on heavy equipment suggest that tall refrigerators and freezers will slide between 12 and 18 inches and may overturn if one of the legs buckles (Makris, 2003). 2.8 Implications of using critical factors to target retrofits In evaluating the kind of equipment and furnishings that populate the laboratories of the UC Science Building, the three categories of critical factors—important, valuable, and a lifesafety concern—are the obvious first priority for a retrofit program. This applies not only to this building, but also to any other science laboratory. It would be possible for any researcher to identify the critical items in his or her laboratory in terms of their importance to the research, their value, or the length of time needed to replace a unique item. This listing could be combined with an assessment of potential life safety hazards to create a first priority retrofit list. Other items could be added as the laboratory users deemed necessary. The obvious response to the threat of damage from earthquakes is to provide restraint for all contents in the laboratory environment. There are two primary reasons why this may not always be necessary or appropriate: 1) cost and, 2) the potential effects of seismic restraint on the function of the element or the lab as a whole. Restraining a portable bench-top instrument, even with a quick-release system to facilitate changes in location, may reduce efficiency and may not be used by staff. Similarly, providing a docking station for wheeled equipment may take up space and inhibit movement in the room. 58 A preliminary estimate of the cost of providing seismic protection for every item of a typical laboratory ranges from $10 to $16 per square foot of laboratory space plus a percentage for contractor overhead and profit (Comerio and Stallmeyer, 2001). Given cost and functionality concerns, it is prudent to prioritize contents with respect to their potential to cause losses. It is recommended here that life-safety issues be considered first, then importance, and value third, although any order could be used to evaluate the contents of a laboratory. 2.9 Prior anchorage In the case-study building the research team observed a number of existing non-structural seismic restraints on furnishings and equipment. Most of these were funded by the QuakeBracing Assistance Program (Q-Brace), which allowed individual units to reinforce bookshelves, file cabinets, and other heavy equipment that could pose a life safety risk during an earthquake. The number of items with existing restraints was documented and evaluated by Rutherford and Chekene. Most of the existing non-structural seismic restraints fell into the following three categories: 1. Refrigerators, incubators, racks, and other large and heavy equipment had been attached to walls, strongbacks, or each other with chains. Manual latches were also added to some refrigerators or cabinets to prevent doors from opening. 2. Lips, elastic cords, or metal plates had been added to some cabinets or open shelves in order to prevent chemicals, lab samples, or books from falling. Some floor mounted bookcases and cabinets had been attached directly to shear walls or partitions with screws, nails, or bolts. 3. Commercial fabric tethers had been attached with adhesive to some computers, microscopes, microwave ovens, and other small items to secure them to desks or shelves. See Table 2-13. 59 Table 2-13. Equipment with prior retrofits Name Quantity Retrofit Environmental chamber Low temp. incubator Freezer Dna sequencer Liquid tank Gas cylinder Biological safety cabinet Refrigerator Incubator Bookcase Gravity convection incubator Ice maker Cryogenic container Electronic rack Shelving unit Cabinet Cpu Monitor Other TOTAL 2 13 119 6 9 122 56 349 131 181 13 8 36 60 234 614 486 499 2 6 48 2 3 30 12 70 21 28 2 1 4 3 10 23 14 10 27 316 Two concerns are raised by the number of prior retrofits in the building. First, is the effectiveness of the existing attachments and second is the cost if these restraints need to be redone. In sum, the engineers questioned the effectiveness of the restraint cables attached to most heavy equipment. They were concerned with the adequacy of the connection and the effectiveness of the partitions to serve as an adequate restraint. They were similarly concerned about the effectiveness of many shelf lips to restrain objects with higher centers of gravity. The fabric tethers were not always installed correctly, and the adhesives used my not perform well over time. It would be very difficult to estimate the adequacy of the existing anchors without detailed testing of the specific conditions. In the PEER shake table tests of heavy equipment (Makris, 2003) refrigerators and freezers were attached with chains to the partition wall in a subset of the tests. Preliminary results indicate that the restraints were able to reduce displacements, but the anchors pulled loose from the wall. Based on the tests and engineering 60 calculations, it is our judgment that the existing anchors are not well detailed and should eventually be replaced with the kinds of details suggested in this report. 2.10 Summary The analysis of the contents of the UC Science Building brings out a number of issues that were not evident in the review of individual laboratories. First, while laboratory space is more than eighty percent of the net useable area, the laboratories are only about half the overall gross square footage of the building. Thus, the valuable contents are concentrated in about 50% of the building area. Second, the laboratory contents are almost equally divided between furnishings and equipment. Shelving units, computers, and heavy equipment such are refrigerators, freezers, and centrifuges comprise the majority of the items in the building. Third, items of critical importance to researchers are the refrigerators and freezers containing biological samples, the cages and racks housing animals, and the computers where current research data is stored. When considering the potential threat of damage from earthquakes, the first concern is the life safety of the building occupants. A second concern is the protection of data and ongoing experiments. A third concern is the protection of valuable or hard-to-get equipment. Taken together, these concerns suggest that is possible to prioritize any building’s contents with respect to their potential to cause losses. In the UC Science Building, heavy equipment such as refrigerators and freezers are top priority for seismic anchoring because they are a life safety hazard, they contain critical contents, and there are many located throughout the building. Equipment racks, animal cage racks, and other heavy equipment are similar in hazard level, importance, and number. Equally significant is the size of the shelf lips. Shelving units are the single largest category of all the building contents. Those that contain chemicals and glassware can represent a serious hazard, and the anchorage of the shelf itself and the restraint of the contents are a key issue. Based on the observations of the number and type of items in the UC Science Building, it seems appropriate to develop an evaluation system that will result in a priority rating system for all contents based on life safety first, importance, second, and dollar value, third. Although considerable judgment will be required by the users to place the contents of their laboratories 61 into one or more priority levels, the systematic approach developed here will assist the process. In the UC Science Building, we found that only about 40% of the contents required anchorage if these criteria were applied. REFERENCES 62 3. Components of Methodology to be Tested Mary C. Comerio, University of California, Berkeley Case Specific Summary of Methodology Global methodology (by reference – presumes that a methodology paper will be available) Components applicable to testbed Major challenges Deliverables: Draft of chapter by April 15, 2002 Authors: Comerio, Mosalam, Fillipou, Makris, Hutchison, Ellwood 63 4. Seismic Hazard Analysis Paul Somerville, URS Corporation, Pasadena, CA 4.1 Conventional Free-Field Hazard Analysis Uniform hazard spectra. Uniform hazard spectra for the site (Table 1) were generated for the UC Berkeley Seismic Guidelines Project by URS (2000). They were calculated for rock site conditions using the average of the following ground motion models: Abrahamson and Silva (1997). Rock and shallow soil (up to 20 meters) over rock Idriss (1991, 1994). Rock Sadigh et al. (1997). Rock within about 1 meter of the surface; often weathered rock. Of these three relations, the Abrahamson and Silva model is most compatible with the site conditions at the UC Science Building site. The URS uniform hazard spectra have not been adopted, and will probably be revised to incorporate the new USGS Working Group hazard model that was released in November 2001. To avoid the dissemination of spectra that have not been adopted and will probably be revised, the spectra are not provided in this report aside from the 0.45 sec spectral acceleration given in Table 4-1. If there is a need for investigators to see the spectra, they should contact Paul Somerville. Table 4-1. Site uniform hazard spectra, 5% damping, Sa at 0.45 seconds. Hazard Level Sa at 0.45 sec M mode R mode 50% in 50 years 0.710 5.5 – 6.0 1 km 10% in 50 years 1.625 6.5 – 7.0 1 km 2% in 50 years 2.740 6.5 – 7.0 1 km 64 Deaggregation of the hazard. The deaggregation of the hazard at a period of 0.3 seconds is given in Table 1. At all three hazard levels, the hazard is dominated by earthquakes on the Hayward fault, which is located about 1 km east of the site. The Hayward fault is a strike-slip fault that has the potential to generate earthquakes having magnitudes as large as 7. For the 50% in 50 year hazard level, the largest contributions come from earthquakes in the magnitude range of 5.5 to 6.0. For both the 10% in 50 year and 2% in 50 year levels, the largest contributions come from magnitudes in the range of 6.5 to 7.0. The higher ground motions for the 2% in 50 year probability level reflect not larger magnitudes (the maximum magnitude earthquake on the Hayward fault is 7.0), but higher ground motion levels for the same magnitude (larger number of standard deviations above the mean). Process of selecting ground-motion recordings. The recordings listed in Tables 2 and 3 were selected to satisfy to the extent possible the magnitude and distance combinations listed in Table 1 for strike-slip earthquakes on SC sites. In general, it was not easy to satisfy these requirements, and none of the sets of time histories is larger than the minimum requirement of ten. It was not possible to satisfy the distance requirement exactly, but all of the selected recordings are within about 10 km of the fault. In all but a few cases, the recordings are from sites that are classified as SC, but in general these site classifications are not based on shear wave velocity measurements. If there were a much larger set of recordings to choose from, it is likely that the sets of selected recordings would have less variability than the sets that are provided. Time histories. The time histories used to represent 50% exceedance probability of Sa at this site in 50 years are listed in Table 4-2. Three of the recordings are from sites that are classified as SD. No attempt was made to adjust these recordings for SC site conditions. Two of the recordings are from the abutment of the Coyote Lake dam. The time histories used to represent 10% and 2% exceedance probability of Sa at this site in 50 years are listed in Table 4-3. The same set of time histories is used to generate the two sets. This is justified in part by the fact that the magnitude – distance combinations that dominate the hazard in each case are the same (Table 4-1). However, this ignores the fact that the 2%-in-50year time histories should be drawn from larger ground motion recordings than the 10%-in-50 year time histories. The use of different scaling factors largely but not completely obviates this shortcoming. 65 Table 4-2. Time histories representing 50% exceedance probability of Sa in 50 years. Dist (km) Site Coyote Lake Dam abutment Gilroy #6 4.0 1.2 C C 1.395 Liu & Helmberger 0.999 (1983) 6.0 Temblor Array #5 Array #8 4.4 3.7 8.0 C D D 1.143 Cloud & Perez 0.978 (1967) 2.302 Livermore 27 Jan 1980 5.5 Fagundes Ranch Morgan Territory Park 4.1 8.1 D C 1.644 Boatwright & 2.958 Boore (1983) Morgan Hill 24 Apr 1984 6.2 Coyote Lake Dam abutment Anderson Dam Downstream Halls Valley 0.1 4.5 2.5 C C C 0.673 Hartzell & Heaton 0.572 (1986) 1.362 Earthquake Mw Station Coyote Lake 8 Jun 1979 5.7 Parkfield 27 Jun 1966 Scale Reference Table 4-3. Time histories representing 10% and 2% exceedance probability of Sa in 50 years. Earthquake Mw Station Dist Site (km) Scale, 10/50 Scale, 2/50 Reference Loma Prieta 17 Oct 1989 7.0 Los Gatos Presentation Center Saratoga Aloha Ave Corralitos Gavilan College Gilroy historic 3.5 C 1.016 1.713 Wald et al. (1991) 8.3 3.4 9.5 ? C C C C 2.653 1.394 2.097 2.319 4.473 2.350 3.535 3.910 Kobe, Japan 17 Jan 1995 6.9 Kobe JMA 0.5 C 0.912 1.537 Wald (1996) Tottori, Japan 6 Oct 2000 6.6 Kofu Hino 10.0 1.0 C C 1.039 0.827 1.751 1.395 K-net Kik-net Erzincan Turkey 13 Mar 1992 6.7 Erzincan 1.8 C* 2.455 4.139 EERI (1993) There is a remarkable sparsity of appropriate recordings on rock from strike-slip California earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6.5 to 7. The recording that would nominally appear to be the best representations of a Hayward fault earthquake is the recording of the Kobe earthquake. However, the rheology of the faults that produced the Kobe earthquake may be quite different from that of the Hayward fault, which has been described by Bergmann et al. (2000). 66 The Kofu recording of the Tottori earthquake was obtained at a K-net site whose soil and seismic wave velocity profiles are known to bedrock at a depth of 10 km (Figure 4-1). The Hino recording of the Tottori earthquake was obtained at a Kik-net site whose soil and seismic wave velocity profiles are known to a depth of 100 meters (Figure 4-2). The Hino site consists of 10 meters of sand and gravel overlying weathered granite. The spectral peak at a period of about 0.7 second is interpreted as indicating strong non-linear effects. The ground motion level at the Kofu site was apparently not high enough to cause similar nonlinear effects at Kofu, whose soil also has higher shear wave velocity. Figure 4-1. Soil Profile at K-net Site Kofu (TTR007) 67 Figure 4-2. Soil Profile at Kik-net Site Hino (TTRH02) 68 The Erzincan recording of the Erzincan earthquake was recorded on deep alluvium (EERI, 1993). It was spectrally modified to represent a rock site recording. The target spectrum for the spectral matching was obtained by scaling the recorded spectrum by the ratio of rock to soil in the Abrahamson and Silva (1997) ground-motion relations. The resulting response spectrum is very compatible with the uniform hazard spectrum. The rheology of the Anatolia fault on which the Erzincan earthquake occurred is considered to be potentially quite compatible with that of the Hayward fault. The Lexington Dam record was obtained on the rock abutment of Lexington Dam. Using this recording as a representation of the input ground motions at the base of the dam, several investigators have successfully modeled the recordings from the crest of the dam (Mejia et al., 1992; Makdisi et al., 1994), implying that the abutment recording is not severely contaminated by dam interaction effects. Near-fault rupture directivity effects in the ground-motion recordings. The selected ground-motion time histories were all recorded sufficiently close to the fault to contain rupture directivity effects, although not all of the recordings are as close as the UC Science Building is to the Hayward fault. In strike-slip earthquakes, forward rupture directivity (propagation of rupture horizontally towards the recording station) produces a pulse of intermediate or long period ground motion whose particle motion is orientated in the direction normal to the strike of the fault (Somerville et al., 1997; Somerville, 1998; Somerville et al., 2000). This pulse is manifested by a response spectrum that is larger on the fault-normal component than on the fault-parallel component at periods longer than about 0.5 seconds. There are indications that the period of the pulse may increase with magnitude (Somerville, 2000). If the earthquake ruptures away from the recording station, then rupture directivity effects are less pronounced. Some of the selected recordings contain strong forward rupture directivity pulses, and others do not. Near the UC Berkeley campus, the Hayward fault has a strike of N 34 W. The longitudinal axis of the UC Science Building has an azimuth of N 16.5 W. The longitudinal axis is thus oriented 17.5 degrees clockwise from the fault strike, and the transverse axis is oriented 17.5 degrees clockwise from the fault normal direction. This rotation means that the two components lie about 40% of the way between the fault normal and fault parallel orientation, in which they are expected to be maximally different, and a rotation 45 degrees off fault strike, in which they are expected to be maximally similar. 69 All of the recorded time histories were rotated to the strike normal and strike parallel directions, and then rotated clockwise by 17.5 degrees to produce the longitudinal and transverse components. Generally, if the recording contains forward rupture directivity effects, its transverse component is expected to be larger than its longitudinal component for peak velocity and peak displacement, and for spectral accelerations having periods longer than about 0.5 seconds. This expectation is generally borne out in the recordings. Site effects in the ground-motion recordings. The shallow, stiff soil conditions at the site have the potential of causing strong resonances in the ground motions. Some of the recordings contain resonances at periods shorter than 0.45 seconds that may be attributable to such effects. Many of the recordings have response spectral amplitudes that are larger than the uniform hazard spectrum at periods longer than 0.45 seconds. In many cases, these may be attributable to forward rupture directivity effects. In near-fault recordings on soil sites, it may be difficult to separate site response effects from rupture directivity effects. As shown by Rodriguez-Marek (2000), the effect of the soil layer is generally to increase both the peak velocity and the period relative to the input rock motion. The amount of the increase depends on the level of the input motion, and the thickness and physical properties of the soil layer. The soil layer may thus generate effects that resemble those of near fault rupture directivity. Scaling and variability of the ground-motion recordings. For each set of recordings, a scaling factor was found by taking the lognormal average of the two horizontal components at a period of 0.45 seconds, and dividing it into the uniform hazard spectrum. This scaling factor was then applied to all three components of the recording. This scaling procedure preserves the relative scaling between the three components of the recording. Consequently, the transverse component is larger than the longitudinal component at longer periods for many of the recordings, because of forward rupture directivity effects. The variability in the ground motion recordings for each component for each ground motion level is shown in Figure 4-3 and Figure 4-4 for the horizontal and vertical components, respectively. These figures show the median and plus and minus one standard deviation level for each set of ten recordings. As pointed out above, the variability may be artificially large, because the relatively small number of suitable recordings made it difficult to select recordings that faithfully represent the earthquake magnitudes, distances and site conditions that pertain to the 70 site. The variability is not zero at 0.45 seconds for the horizontal components because the scaling was based on the average of the two horizontal components. For the 50%-in-50-year time histories, the largest variability occurs at periods less than 0.45 seconds due to variability in shallow soil response. For the 10%-in-50-year and 2%-in-50 year time histories, there is large variability in the transverse (approximately fault normal) component at periods longer than 0.45 seconds due to variability in forward rupture directivity effects, which are present in some recordings and absent in others. 71 Figure 4-3. Variability in the ground motions of each set of ten scaled recordings for the longitudinal and transverse components for each of three ground motion levels 72 Figure 4-4. Variability in the ground motions of each set of ten scaled recordings for the vertical component for each of three ground motion levels 73 Comparison of scaled recording spectra with the uniform hazard spectra. Figure 4-5, and Figure 4-6 show the longitudinal and transverse response spectra averaged over the ten recordings for the three ground-motion levels. For all three ground-motion levels, the average response spectra of the recordings are lower than the uniform hazard response spectra at periods shorter than 0.45 seconds. This is expected, because the uniform hazard spectra were defined for rock site conditions, while the recordings are mostly from sites characterized by shallow soil over rock. The discrepancy is larger for the 10%-in-50-year and 2%-in-50-year response spectra than for the 50%-in-50 year response spectra. The uniform hazard spectra peak at a period of about 0.2 seconds, while the recording response spectra peak at a period of about 0.3 to 0.35 seconds. The average longitudinal and transverse response spectra for the ten 50 % in 50 year time histories are very similar to each other at periods longer than 0.45 seconds, where they exceed the uniform hazard spectrum. The average transverse response spectrum is consistently larger than the average longitudinal response spectrum at periods longer than about 0.6 seconds for both the 10% in 50 year and 2% in 50 year time histories. This difference is presumably attributable to rupture directivity effects. In the period range of 0.6 to 1.4 seconds, the uniform hazard spectrum lies between the average transverse and longitudinal components. For periods longer than 1.4 seconds, the average transverse response spectrum is similar to the uniform hazard spectrum, but the longitudinal response spectrum is significantly lower. 74 Figure 4-5. Comparison of the longitudinal and transverse response spectra averaged over the ten scaled recordings for the 50% in 50 year ground motion level 75 Figure 4-6. Comparison of the longitudinal and transverse response spectra averaged over the ten scaled recordings for the 10% in 50 year ground motion level 76 Figure 4-7. Comparison of the longitudinal and transverse response spectra averaged over the ten scaled recordings for the 2% in 50 year ground motion level 4.2 Free-Field Hazard Analysis and Record Selection Based on “Improved IMs” Discussion of IM hazard curves Deliverables: Discussion of “ IM”s for UCS: Makris 77 78 5. Engineering Demand Parameters Tae-Hyung Lee and Khalid M. Mosalam, University of California, Berkeley 5.1 Structural modeling Outline of section by May 2002 Draft section by October 2002 Author: Mosalam General. The computational model of the UCS building is developed using the modeling capabilities of the software framework of OpenSees. The complete model of the UCS building in OpenSees is illustrated in Figure 5-1. In this section, description of this modeling is presented together with a list of the adopted assumptions and the limitations of the modeling process. 79 Beam-column element node 53 node 28 Rigid element node 7 Spring element for soil modeling y x Element 81 Element 89 Hinged support Rollered support Figure 5-1. OpenSees model of UCS building Assumptions and Limitations. The current model of OpenSees focuses on modeling frame 8 of the UCS building, as identified in Figure 2-1. This model is based on the following assumptions: Two-dimensional idealization of the selected frame is considered. Linear elastic shear force-deformation relationship is chosen for all the used elements in the model relying on the fact that shear failure will not occur prior to flexure failure. Reinforcing bars are assumed fully bonded to the surrounding concrete. The analyzed frame has a tributary area having 101'-6" width, as shown in Figure 2-1. 80 Modeling Shear Wall Elements. All shear wall elements are modeled using one dimensional beam elements aligned with the centerline of the actual shear wall. For proper idealization of the geometry, the node at the shear wall centerline and the node at the boundary of the shear wall (representing one end of a coupling beam) are connected using rigid elements. This approach of idealizing shear walls is illustrated in Figure 5-2. Beam-column element Shear wall Beam Column Rigid element Figure 5-2. Modeling of shear walls using beam-column elements and rigid elements Modeling Beam Elements. All elements in the UCS building model are based on flexibility formulation of beam elements (nonlinearBeamColumn). Each beam element has two nodes where each node has three degrees of freedom (two translations and one rotation). The beam element has four monitoring sections with fiber element discretization, as shown in Figure 5-3. In this discretization, distinction is made between the constitutive modeling of the reinforcing bars, unconfined concrete, and confined concrete. For the reinforcement, a bilinear stress-strain relationship is used. As for the concrete, the modified Kent-Park stress-strain (with zero tensile strength) relationships are used. 81 Monitoring sections y x Concrete fiber Steel fiber y z z Section Element Figure 5-3. Discretization of the element monitoring sections Boundary Conditions. Flexible supports are used at the foundation level in the vertical direction using truss elements. These elements represent soil having a modulus of subgrade reaction of 200 lb/in3. The tributary width of these truss elements included the width of the shear wall and twice the thickness of the mat foundation. To simulate the characteristic of soil behavior, ENT (Elastic and No Tension) material in OpenSees material library is adopted. An element with ENT material has elastic properties in compression and zero tensile strength as shown in Figure 5-4. Stress Modulus of subgrade reaction Compression Deformation Tension Figure 5-4. Description of ENT material to simulate soil behavior in OpenSees 82 5.2 Validation of Analytical Models Validation through component tests (Mosalam, Fillipou) (by October 2002) Relation to contents testing Deliverables: Outline of section by May, 2002 Final report by October 2003 Authors: Mosalam, Fillipou 5.3 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Prediction of EDPs Relevant EDPs for damage assessment, including structural, architectural, MEP, and content subsystems (Holmes, Mosalam. If this means identification of the EDPs relevant to nonstructural damage, shouldn’t authors be Holmes, Makris, Pardoen, & Hutchinson?) Predictions of EDPs from non-deteriorating and deteriorating models (e.g., structure specific descriptions of EDP/IM, and site specific EDP hazard curves) (Mosalam) Propagation of uncertainties (this ties in with Section 4.2) (Cornell, and Beck???) Assessment of adequacy of selected EDPs for determination of $ losses and downtime (Cornell and Beck???) Sensitivities? (Der Kiureghian, Conte – not officially on team) Prediction by means of simplified engineering approaches (Krawinkler???) (Beck?) Simplifying structural analysis. Requires (1 or 2) and 3: A “perfect” ground motion GM* exists such that EDP[GM*] = E[EDP[GM]], i.e., a single structural analysis is required using GM* to estimate mean response, for this hazard level, category of structure, etc., OR A “perfect” secondary intensity measure IM* exists such one can select or generate a GM* with features {IM, IM*}, wit the same features as in (1), AND A common correlation matrix V[EDP] exists for this class of structures. If [(1 or 2) and 3], then many sample vectors of EDP can be simulated based on a few structural analyses. Research underway or needed to answer 1, 2, and 3 Deliverables: Outline of section by January 17, 2002 (Cornell borrow from Van Nuys) List of EDPs and their representation (in the context of EDP/DM/DV evaluation process, i.e., central value, measure of dispersion, etc.) to researchers by March 15, 2002 (Mosalam) Comprehensive EDP/IM data and EDP hazard curves (or other relevant representations) on web site by August 15, 2002 (Cornell, Mosalam, Fillipou??) Assessment of adequacy of selected EDPs by December 15, 2002 ( Cornell and ??) Partial draft by October 1, 2002 Final report by April 2003 Authors: Mosalam, Cornell, Fillipou, and (Der Kiureghian & Conte?) 83 Figure 5-5 shows time histories of spring forces in Element 81 and Element 89 and horizontal displacement at node 53 due to one of the 50% in 50 years earthquakes recorded at Gilroy #6 station, Coyote Lake. Element 81 and Element 89 represent soil spring elements at both ends of the building in Figure 5-1 (Element 81 on the left and Element 89 on the right). Node 53 is located at the center of the roof, as shown in Figure 5-1. In the vertical axis of the upper plot in Figure 5-5, negative values represent compression. The gravity load is observed to be large enough to keep soil springs under compression for the most of the time of the analysis. Figure 5-6 shows time histories of spring forces in Element 81 and Element 89 due to the same earthquake but in this case, only half of the total gravity load is applied to observe the behavior of the soil spring, especially in the tension regime. One can clearly observe, in the tension regime (positive in the vertical axis), the spring force is zero, while the spring provides the required resistance in the compression regime. 1000 Spring force, kips 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -4000 -5000 elem 81 elem 89 -6000 -7000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 8 10 12 14 Time, sec. 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 2 4 6 Time, sec Figure 5-5. Spring forces in soil springs (top) and Roof displacement (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years Coyote Lake earthquake recorded at Gilroy #6 (full gravity load is applied) 84 1000 Spring force, kips 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 elem 81 elem 89 -4000 -5000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Time, sec. Figure 5-6. Spring forces in soil springs due to 50% in 50 years Coyote Lake earthquake recorded at Gilroy #6 (only 50% of the gravity load is applied) Mass Idealization and Gravity Load. The dead load accounted for the self-weight of the waffle slab system and the supporting elements, i.e. shear walls and columns. The assumed unit weight of the concrete is 145 pcf. The computed dead load is 183 psf. Moreover, 25 psf representing building contents are included as a superimposed dead load. The live load of 100 pcf is assumed according to the original design of the building. The mass of the UCS building is modeled using lumped masses at the nodes. Nodal masses are directly computed from the dead load including the superimposed dead load. Damping Idealization. The damping characteristics of the UCS building is modeled using mass and stiffness proportional damping with 5% of critical damping for modes 1 and 2. These modes are estimated from the eigen solution using the initial elastic stiffness matrix as 0.64 and 0.28 seconds. Solution Strategy. Newmark -method is used as the time integrator with coefficients 0.50 and 0.25 . In general, a time step of 1/10 the ground motion time interval is used, which implied a time step in the range of 0.0005 to 0.001 seconds. The modified NewtonRaphson solution algorithm is utilized for solving the nonlinear system of equilibrium equations. Ground Motion. Ground acceleration records selected for analyses can be categorized by the hazard level: 50%, 10%, and 2% probability of occurrence in 50 years. 10 ground acceleration records in transverse direction per each hazard level were selected because the frame in 2-D modeling stands in fault-normal direction. Additional two ground acceleration 85 records in longitudinal direction were also considered in analyses for the purpose of the future shake table tests of the building contents by UCI researchers. The peak ground accelerations and statistics of ground accelerations selected for analyses are summarized in Table 5-1 and Table 5-2. Table 5-1. Summary of 50% in 50 years ground accelerations used for analyses Earthquake Station Coyote Lake Coyote Lake Dam abutment 8 Jun 1979 Gilroy #6 Parkfield 27 Jun 1966 Livermore 27 Jan 1980 PGA (g) 0.386 0.474 Temblor 0.393 Array #5 0.394 Array #8 0.564 Fagundes Ranch 0.386 Morgan Territory Park 0.749 Coyote Lake Dam abutment 0.641 Morgan Hill Anderson Dam 24 Apr 1984 Downstream Halls Valley 0.257 0.360 Mean (COV*) *: Coefficient of variation 86 0.460 (32.3%) Table 5-2. Summary of 10% and 2% in 50 years ground accelerations used for analyses Station 10% PGA (g) 2% PGA (g) Los Gatos Presentation Center 0.649 1.094 Saratoga Aloha Ave 0.854 1.441 Corralitos 0.529 0.892 Gavilan College 0.664 1.119 Gilroy historic 0.675 1.137 Lexington Dam abutment (transverse) 0.875 1.475 Lexington Dam abutment (longitudinal) 0.837 1.412 Kobe, Japan 17 Jan 1995 Kobe JMA (transverse) 0.777 1.310 Kobe JMA (longitudinal) 0.439 0.740 Tottori, Japan 6 Oct 2000 Kofu 0.686 1.157 Hino 0.743 1.253 Erzincan 1.482 2.498 Earthquake Loma Prieta 17 Oct 1989 Erzincan, Turkey 13 Mar 1992 Mean* (COV*) 0.793 (33.1%) 1.338 (33.1%) * Statistics of ground accelerations in transverse direction only Results: Time Histories. The presented results consist of time histories for the floor midpoint displacement and acceleration. These time histories are given as relative to the ground (for estimation of the structural response) and also as absolute values (for the purpose of the future shake table tests of the building contents by UCB and UCI researchers). Some of the ground accelerations induced a numerical problem during the incremental-iterative nonlinear analysis. These records are listed in Table 5-3 where their resulting time histories are not presented here. 87 Table 5-3. Ground records that induced numerical problem in the nonlinear time-history analyses Earthquake Morgan Hill Station Coyote Lake Dam Abutment Halls Valley Hazard level 50 % in 50 yrs Los Gatos Presentation Center Saratoga Aloha Ave Corralitos Gavilan College Loma Prieta Gilroy historic Lexington Dam abutment (transverse) Lexington Dam abutment (longitudinal) Kobe, Japan Tottori, Japan Kobe JMA (transverse) Kobe JMA (longitudinal) Hino Erzincan, Turkey Erzincan 88 10 % and 2 % in 50 yrs 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-7. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Coyote Lake Dam abutment earthquake 89 Acceleration, g 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Acceleration, g Time, sec 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 Acceleration, g Time, sec 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-8. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Coyote Lake Dam abutment earthquake 90 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 Acceleration, g Time, sec 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-9. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Coyote Lake Dam abutment earthquake 91 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-10. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Gilroy #6 earthquake 92 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 Time, sec 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-11. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Gilroy #6 earthquake 93 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-12. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Coyote Lake, Gilroy #6 earthquake 94 1.0 0.8 Displacement, in. 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 12 14 16 18 20 12 14 16 18 20 Displacement, in. Time, sec 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Displacement, in. Time, sec 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 Time, sec Figure 5-13. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Fagundes Ranch earthquake 95 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 12 14 16 18 20 12 14 16 18 20 Time, sec Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 Time, sec Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 Time, sec Figure 5-14. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Fagundes Ranch earthquake 96 Displacement, in. 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 12 14 16 18 20 Time, sec Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 Time, sec Figure 5-15. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Fagundes Ranch earthquake 97 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 15 20 25 15 20 25 Time, sec 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 Time, sec 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 Time, sec Figure 5-16. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Morgan Territory Park earthquake 98 1.6 Acceleration, g 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 15 20 25 15 20 25 Time, sec 1.6 Acceleration, g 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 Time, sec 1.6 Acceleration, g 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 Time, sec Figure 5-17. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Morgan Territory Park earthquake 99 4.0 Displacement, in. 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 15 20 25 Time, sec 1.6 Acceleration, g 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 Time, sec Figure 5-18. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Livermore, Morgan Territory Park earthquake 100 2.5 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 2.5 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 Time, sec 2.5 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-19. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Morgan Hill, Anderson Dam Downstream earthquake 101 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 Time, sec 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-20. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Morgan Hill, Anderson Dam Downstream earthquake 102 2.5 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-21. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Morgan Hill, Anderson Dam Downstream earthquake 103 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 30 35 40 45 30 35 40 45 Time, sec 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time, sec 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time, sec Figure 5-22. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #5 earthquake 104 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 30 35 40 45 30 35 40 45 Time, sec 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time, sec 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time, sec Figure 5-23. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #5 earthquake 105 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 30 35 40 45 Time, sec 0.6 Acceleration, g 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 Time, sec Figure 5-24. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #5 earthquake 106 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-25. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #8 earthquake 107 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 Time, sec 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-26. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #8 earthquake 108 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 20 25 30 Time, sec 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 0 5 10 15 Time, sec Figure 5-27. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of Roof due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Array #8 earthquake 109 1.5 Displacement, in. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Displacement, in. Time, sec 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 Displacement, in. Time, sec 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-28. Relative displacements of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Temblor earthquake 110 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Acceleration, g Time, sec 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 20 Acceleration, g Time, sec 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-29. Relative accelerations of Roof (top), Level 4 (middle), and Level 1 (bottom) due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Temblor earthquake 111 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Acceleration, g Time, sec 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-30. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of roof due to 50% in 50 years, Parkfield, Temblor earthquake 112 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Time, sec 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-31. Relative displacements of roof (top), level 4 (middle), and level 1 (bottom) due to 10% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake 113 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Time, sec 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-32. Relative accelerations of roof (top), level 4 (middle), and level 1 (bottom) due to 10% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake 114 3.0 Displacement, in. 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Time, sec 1.2 Acceleration, g 0.8 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-33. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of roof due to 10% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake 115 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Time, sec 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-34. Relative displacements of roof (top), level 4 (middle), and level 1 (bottom) due to 2% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake 116 2.0 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Time, sec 2.0 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec 2.0 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-35. Relative accelerations of roof (top), level 4 (middle), and level 1 (bottom) due to 2% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake 117 5.0 Displacement, in. 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 25 30 35 40 Time, sec 2.0 1.5 Acceleration, g 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 0 5 10 15 20 Time, sec Figure 5-36. Absolute displacement (top) and absolute acceleration (bottom) of roof due to 2% in 50 years, Tottori, Kofu earthquake Extreme Values. Extreme values for displacement and accelerations are also given in a tabulated form in Table 5-4 and Table 5-5. Note that these values are not necessarily taking place at the same point in time. They are provided for the sake of the shake table test preparations of the building contents by the UCB and UCI researchers. 118 Table 5-4. Various maximum responses of each floor level subjected to different earthquake records with 50% probability of occurance in 50 years Level Coyote Lake, Coyote Lake Dam Abutment drel dabs arel aabs drel Coyote Lake, Gilroy #6 dabs arel aabs drel Parkfield, Temblor dabs arel aabs + + + + + + + + + + + + - 1 2 3 4 5 6 R 0.55 0.55 1.06 1.40 0.27 0.28 0.33 0.22 0.35 0.51 2.16 3.13 0.19 0.20 0.48 0.29 0.20 0.19 1.63 2.16 0.12 0.13 0.25 0.33 0.94 0.95 1.29 1.45 0.35 0.38 0.30 0.23 0.65 0.96 2.26 3.46 0.34 0.35 0.52 0.29 0.35 0.33 1.69 2.16 0.19 0.23 0.21 0.28 1.33 1.34 1.61 1.60 0.49 0.49 0.32 0.30 0.98 1.45 2.38 3.84 0.47 0.45 0.57 0.36 0.52 0.47 1.75 2.19 0.24 0.32 0.25 0.20 1.70 1.73 1.98 1.85 0.62 0.62 0.38 0.42 1.32 1.95 2.51 4.28 0.60 0.53 0.61 0.43 0.68 0.61 1.81 2.24 0.35 0.42 0.26 0.20 2.06 2.12 2.33 2.15 0.76 0.67 0.45 0.49 1.66 2.46 2.63 4.74 0.73 0.68 0.66 0.50 0.85 0.74 1.86 2.32 0.47 0.52 0.23 0.22 2.42 2.51 2.69 2.47 0.89 0.73 0.56 0.60 2.04 3.00 2.76 5.24 0.84 0.95 0.74 0.78 1.03 0.88 1.92 2.40 0.61 0.62 0.25 0.31 2.81 2.95 3.08 2.86 1.01 0.82 0.69 0.64 2.53 3.62 2.91 5.81 0.96 1.04 0.95 0.90 1.23 1.03 1.97 2.51 0.80 0.72 0.40 0.39 dabs = absolute displacement, in. drel = relative displacement, in. aabs = absolute acceleration, g arel = relative acceleration, g 119 Table 5-4 (cont.). Various maximum responses of each floor level subjected to different earthquake records with 50% probability of occurance in 50 years Level drel Parkfield, Array #5 dabs arel aabs drel Parkfield, Array #8 dabs arel aabs drel Livermore, Fagundes Ranch dabs arel aabs + + + + + + + + + + + + - 1 2 3 4 5 6 R 0.24 0.25 2.12 1.44 0.10 0.14 0.33 0.27 0.32 0.38 3.35 3.15 0.29 0.23 0.61 0.55 0.18 0.17 0.36 0.32 0.16 0.14 0.37 0.36 0.42 0.45 2.24 1.57 0.17 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.59 0.70 3.42 3.12 0.45 0.40 0.68 0.63 0.31 0.30 0.36 0.42 0.26 0.22 0.35 0.35 0.61 0.66 2.36 1.72 0.22 0.38 0.21 0.25 0.87 1.04 3.53 3.14 0.58 0.55 0.70 0.65 0.43 0.43 0.49 0.54 0.34 0.27 0.29 0.34 0.81 0.86 2.48 1.87 0.28 0.50 0.23 0.28 1.14 1.39 3.74 3.19 0.70 0.68 0.70 0.70 0.55 0.55 0.61 0.66 0.42 0.31 0.17 0.28 1.00 1.06 2.60 2.02 0.37 0.60 0.27 0.34 1.41 1.73 3.94 3.27 0.91 0.80 0.67 0.65 0.68 0.67 0.73 0.78 0.49 0.37 0.19 0.23 1.19 1.27 2.71 2.17 0.47 0.69 0.31 0.36 1.68 2.09 4.14 3.36 1.15 0.89 0.71 0.62 0.80 0.79 0.85 0.89 0.55 0.53 0.21 0.21 1.41 1.49 2.84 2.38 0.58 0.76 0.42 0.43 2.00 2.51 4.39 3.67 1.43 1.01 0.99 0.93 0.94 0.92 0.99 1.02 0.61 0.78 0.29 0.46 dabs = absolute displacement, in. drel = relative displacement, in. aabs = absolute acceleration, g arel = relative acceleration, g 120 Table 5-4 (cont.). Various maximum responses of each floor level subjected to different earthquake records with 50% probability of occurance in 50 years Level drel Livermore, Morgan Territory Park dabs arel aabs drel Morgan Hill, Anderson Dam Downstream dabs arel aabs + + + + + + + + - 1 2 3 4 5 6 R 0.52 0.49 1.61 0.84 0.37 0.30 0.75 0.79 0.23 0.23 1.22 0.84 0.11 0.13 0.19 0.12 0.88 0.83 1.88 0.98 0.53 0.43 0.72 0.91 0.40 0.40 1.33 0.93 0.17 0.21 0.14 0.17 1.21 1.15 2.12 1.22 0.64 0.45 0.71 0.89 0.56 0.56 1.46 1.03 0.23 0.28 0.16 0.20 1.52 1.46 2.34 1.45 0.77 0.49 0.66 0.79 0.72 0.72 1.60 1.11 0.29 0.35 0.19 0.24 1.82 1.75 2.54 1.67 0.88 0.56 0.63 0.59 0.88 0.88 1.74 1.20 0.33 0.45 0.23 0.26 2.12 2.04 2.75 1.88 1.14 0.77 0.58 0.48 1.04 1.04 1.88 1.29 0.36 0.54 0.26 0.30 2.46 2.36 3.09 2.12 1.49 1.15 0.81 0.81 1.22 1.21 2.02 1.38 0.43 0.65 0.32 0.39 dabs = absolute displacement, in. drel = relative displacement, in. aabs = absolute acceleration, g arel = relative acceleration, g 121 Table 5-5. Various maximum responses of each floor level subjected to Tottori, Kofu earthquake records with 10% and 2% probabilities of occurance in 50 years Level drel Tottori, Kofu 10% in 50 yrs dabs arel aabs drel Tottori, Kofu 2% in 50 yrs dabs arel aabs + + + + + + + + - 1 2 3 4 5 6 R 0.25 0.28 2.41 1.43 0.29 0.29 0.68 0.69 0.47 0.46 4.04 2.40 0.56 0.59 1.35 1.28 0.46 0.50 2.40 1.42 0.49 0.47 0.71 0.74 0.82 0.82 4.01 2.40 0.79 0.93 1.33 1.21 0.68 0.73 2.44 1.42 0.66 0.66 0.69 0.65 1.17 1.18 4.10 2.40 0.96 1.19 1.35 1.00 0.90 0.97 2.53 1.43 0.79 0.82 0.65 0.53 1.52 1.57 4.24 2.42 1.07 1.34 1.14 0.78 1.12 1.22 2.62 1.44 0.86 0.93 0.58 0.49 1.89 1.96 4.38 2.43 1.22 1.48 0.83 0.74 1.35 1.49 2.70 1.60 0.91 1.03 0.50 0.54 2.28 2.38 4.52 2.46 1.44 1.74 0.79 0.87 1.59 1.84 2.79 1.87 1.10 1.14 0.77 0.69 2.80 2.93 4.67 2.61 1.88 2.06 1.23 1.09 dabs = absolute displacement, in. drel = relative displacement, in. aabs = absolute acceleration, g arel = relative acceleration, g 122 6. Damage Analysis 6.1 Testing of Nonstructural Components Performance of furniture/benchtops/shelves and equipment and contents of shelves (Hutchinson, Pardoen) [This is DM|EDP] Performance testing of heavy equipment (Makris) Deliverables: Select and describe components and limit states by March 15 (Holmes, Hutchinson, Makris) Outline section by May 2002 Schedule of testing program May 2002 Plan for delivery of Preliminary data to Holmes May 2002 Final Report October 2003 Authors: Makris, Hutchinson, Pardoen 6.2 Damage Estimation 123 Models for equipment damage, p[DM|EDP] (Hutchinson, Pardoen, Makris). The DM refers to a limit state that requires remedial action (e.g., replacement of a gypsum board wall), and the DM/EDP relationships may be viewed as “fragility” curves Estimation of equipment damage p[DM] (Hutchinson, Pardoen, Makris) Prediction of hazmat (??) Propagation of uncertainties (Cornell, and ??) Prediction by means of simplified engineering approaches (???) Deliverables: Outline of section by May, 2002 Damage predictions by October 1, 2002 Partial draft by October 2002 OpenSees model for equipment damage & by October 1, 2002 (Fenves?) Local collapse prediction and consequences by April 2003 (??) Final report by October 2003 Authors: Mosalam, Fillipou, Cornell, etc. 124 7. Loss Analysis Keith A. Porter, James L. Beck, and Rustem V. Shaikhutdinov, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA Mary C. Comerio, University of California, Berkeley 7.1 Decision Framework PEER has posed PBEE as a tool for assessing uncertain future seismic performance (parameterized via decision variables) as a function of design and seismic hazard. The question to be addressed at this point then is how to measure performance. To answer this question, it is useful to step back and consider the context in which performance is assessed. It is helpful, when considering how to measure performance, to think about the situation in a facility immediately after an earthquake has occurred. Imagine the facility in question. Picture some physical damage to the facility and its contents. Possibly there have been casualties, and the facility’s operability has been impacted. You are picturing the seismic performance of the facility. How would the performance be measured? Imagine a set of decision-makers walking around, trying to summarize the earthquake impacts in the facility, so they can decide what needs doing. How exactly will they measure the performance? First, let us identify the decision-makers. Decision-makers and performance metrics. There are a number decisions associated with the seismic performance of the UCS building. Potential graduate students will decide whether to attend the University in the light of earthquake damage. Graduate research associates might be thinking about whether they can complete their research in light of the damage, and may be considering transferring to another institution. Faculty investigators are likewise determining, first, whether everyone is safe, second, whether there are hazardous conditions in the lab, and third, the status of their experiments: which can continue, and which will need to be restarted. University administrators are thinking about how to depict the damage to top administrators, alumni, the Regents, and the public. Which decision-makers shall we consider? 125 Probably the most reasonable approach is to look at the situation from the viewpoint of the faculty researchers. They are the ones responsible for their graduate students, responsible to the research sponsors who fund the research, and to the administration for the safety of their laboratories. We shall therefore consider the faculty in the facility as the decision-makers, and address the facility’s seismic performance from their viewpoint, i.e., in terms of life-safety and post-earthquake operability. Alternatives. Now let us step back to present day, before the earthquake has occurred. We know that the performance metrics we care about are the future life-safety and future operability of the lab spaces. We will estimate how likely it is that a future earthquake will impact life safety, and how likely it is that a future earthquake will cause the operational failure of a particular investigator’s laboratory space. We want to estimate these probabilities for at least two alternatives: (a) do-nothing, i.e., leave the facility as it is, and (b) mitigate the risk. Available risk-mitigation alternatives typically include various combinations of retrofit measures, the addition of redundancy through backup equipment, emergency-response training to use human resources to minimize negative consequences, and possibly other approaches. This dauntingly wide array of options can be considerably narrowed by recalling that the objective for the present study is to assess structural approaches to risk management, as opposed to process-oriented approaches. Thus we can ignore emergency training alternatives. Furthermore, as the present study focuses on equipment and contents, and as the addition of redundant equipment and contents implies a process-oriented approach, we ignore these alternatives as well, as valuable as they may be. We therefore limit ourselves to engineering approaches for dealing with equipment and content damage, which typically employ anchorage, bracing, and in some cases the addition of flexibility. Common retrofit measures for equipment have been extensively cataloged; see for example [>>ref the FEMA yellow book on equipment<<]. The costs of these mitigation measures are readily estimated. The question then is what effect they have on uncertain future seismic performance, i.e., on the decision variables. Decision variables. In the PEER framework, the seismic performance of a facility is parameterized via the decision variable, or DV. There are a variety of ways to parameterize the seismic performance of a facility. PEER has selected as general measures of interest: casualties (number deaths and injuries, or the event that life-threatening damage occurs), dollar losses 126 associated with repair costs or loss of income, and loss of use, measured in terms of restoration time or the binary event that restoration time exceeds some intolerable level. In the present case, the facility owner is primarily concerned with threats to life safety and the potential for unacceptable downtime. We have therefore selected two provisional DVs, to be reviewed by the stakeholders: DVO The probability that, during a planning period T, a given operational unit of the facility (defined here as the facility space, equipment, and contents required by an individual faculty researcher) experiences damage that renders it inoperative for an unacceptable period of time; and DVL The probability that, during a planning period T, a given operational unit of the facility experiences life-threatening damage, either by the sliding or overturning of large objects that could cause trauma or block egress, or by the release of hazardous material. Note that DVO can be evaluated without the analyst needing to know what an unacceptable downtime is, if the facility owner can identify DMs that imply unacceptable downtime, and if the analyst can estimate the DMs. This is the case here. Either DV can be evaluated for a given scenario event, a given level of excitation, or on a per-annum basis. For the present, we will evaluate the DVs at the three hazard levels discussed in previous chapters, and determine by discussions with the decision-makers which of these levels appears to be most relevant. The following text presents a methodology for evaluating these DVs. 7.2 7.2.1 Formulation of Loss-Estimation Methodology Definition of Operational Units. Let the facility be comprised of a set of Nm distinct operational units. An operational unit comprises a set of facility components that serve some distinct function of interest. In the case of a commercial building, an operational unit could be a rental suite, a floor, or the entire building. In an industrial setting, an operational unit could be a building and all its equipment and contents that perform a distinct industrial process. In the present application, the operational units are defined as all of the laboratory space, structural, nonstructural, and particular equipment and contents serving a particular investigator. 127 The building spaces comprising an operational unit need not be contiguous and need not be delineated by particular rooms or suites of rooms, but can include both dedicated suites and portions of the central core and basement serving a particular investigator. The loss analysis will be performed on an investigator-by-investigator basis. It must begin at the level of particular components serving the operational unit. 7.2.2 Evaluation of the operational decision variable, DVO Equipment operational fragility. Let P[DO,i,m | EDP] denote the probability that a component i (located in operational unit m) will be rendered inoperative when subjected to engineering demand parameter EDP. This is the operational fragility of the component, which can be determined via laboratory testing, from theoretical considerations, by engineering judgment, or some combination of these. Operational-unit fragility function. In the present context, a potentially large number of components i in a given operational unit m will be excited by a given event E, which produces a value of EDP for each component. We wish to consider system performance at the level of the event E. Furthermore, for operational performance, we are only concerned with those components i that the faculty investigator considers critical to his or her operation, i.e., those components, which, if they were damaged, would cause an unacceptable disruption in the processes performed in that operational unit. Let these be referred to as operationally critical components. Let P[DO,i,m | E] therefore denote the probability that operationally critical component i in operational unit m will be rendered inoperative given the occurrence of event E. If the EDP resulting from an event E is completely determined by structural analysis, then we can substitute: P[DO,i,m | E] = P[DO,i | EDP(E)] (7-1) and simply bear in mind that each event E is associated with a set of EDPs that can be input to component fragility functions to determine P[DO,i | EDP(E)] and thus P[DO,i,m | E]. Let NO,m represent the number of operationally critical components in operational area m. Let P[FO,m | E] represent the probability of operational failure in operational unit m, given event E. If the damage to component i is conditionally independent of that of component j i, then 128 PFO ,m | E 1 1 PDO ,i ,m | E NO , m (7-2) i 1 which is an expression of DVO for event E. Note that the set {P[DO,i,m | E]} comprises the damage measure for operational performance in event E, produced by the damage analysis. If furthermore a set of events {E} = {E1, E2, … ENE} are considered equiprobable, as in the case of NE independent ground motions for a single level of shaking severity, then PFO ,m 1 | E NE 1 NE PF NE O ,m e 1 | E NO ,m 1 1 PDO ,i ,m | E e e 1 i 1 NE (7-3) which is an expression of DV1 for the set of events {E}, such as for a given hazard level. Here, hazard level refers to a value of the intensity measure IM = im corresponding to a given mean exceedance frequency, i.e., a given mean number of events per year G with IM ≥ im. The hazard curve is defined as the mean exceedance frequency (events per year) as a function of intensity IM. We are now ready to define an operational fragility function. Let {E}im denote an equiprobable set of events corresponding to a given hazard level im. Let P[FO,m | im] denote the probability of operational failure of operational area m, conditioned on the occurrence of an event with IM = im. The functional relationship between P[FO,m | im] and im is the operational fragility function for an operational unit. If for every particular level im we can select a set of events {E}im, then we can estimate the operational-unit fragility function as P[FO,m | im] ≈ P[FO,m | {E}im] (7-4) Thus, one can estimate the probability that an operational unit will experience operational failure as a function of the intensity level, IM. Probability of operational failure per year, or during planning period t. With the operational fragility function thus defined, we can turn to the evaluation of DVO independent of intensity level, i.e., on an annualized basis or during a planning period t. Let earthquakes be modeled as independent events with Poisson arrival rates determined by the negative first derivative of the hazard curve. Let G(im) denote the hazard curve, and let the occurrence rate density at a particular value of IM be defined as 129 g im dG dIM (7-5) im which gives an occurrence rate per unit of IM. Let Q[FO,m] denote the mean frequency of operational failures of operational area m, and let P[FO,m] denote the annual operational failure probability (i.e., the probability that at least one event will cause operational failure) of operational area m. Then QFO ,m PF O ,m | im g im dim (7-6) im IM 0 and PFO ,m 1 exp QFO ,m (7-7) where IM0 denotes a threshold intensity level that can cause operational failure (convenient because of the high frequency of negligible events). Note that Q[FO,m] ≥ P[FO,m], because of the probability that two or more events will occur in a year. For small occurrence frequencies, P[FO,m] ≈ Q[FO,m]. Because it may be convenient to evaluate Q[FO,m] numerically, it is worthwhile to consider another form of the seismic hazard. Let n(im) denote the mean annual number of events of intensity im ± im/2. For small im, n(im) is approximated by n(im) ≈ -g(im)im (7-8) Furthermore, if the hazard curve G(im) can be locally approximated as a log-linear function of IM, i.e., G(im) ≈ exp(a*im + b) (7-9) where a and b are constants near IM = im. Then n(im) can be approximated as n(im) ≈ -dG/dim*im = -aG(im)im (7-10) for im = im0, im0 + im, im0 + 2im, … immax where im is some small increment in IM, immax is some upper-bound value of IM at which the hazard curve can be reasonably truncated, and a is evaluated numerically from the hazard curve at each value of im. Frankel and Leyendecker (2001) offer hazard curves with the warning that exceedance frequencies less than 10-4 should be used with caution, so immax ≈ G-1(10-4) is a reasonable truncation point. 130 Finally, the mean operational failure rate of operational area m can be approximated by QFO ,m PF immax imim0 O ,m | im nim (7-11) and the annual operational failure probability P[FO,m] can be evaluated as shown above. Assuming Poisson arrivals of failure events, one can estimate the failure probability during a planning period t as PFO ,m,t 1 exp QFO ,m t (7-12) Evaluation of DVO. It remains to be determined whether DVO is defined as the probability of operational failure of an operational unit for a given hazard level, on an annualized basis, or during a particular planning period. If the first, then DVO is given by Equation 7-4. If the second, then DVO is given by Equation 7-11. If the last, then DVO is given by Equation 7-12. 7.2.3 Evaluation of the Life-safety Decision Variable, DVL Analogous to operational failure, let P[DL,i,m | EDP] denote the probability that a component i (located in operational unit m) will cause a life-safety failure when subjected to engineering demand parameter EDP. Only certain types of components can cause a life-safety failure. We will not attempt to define the set of components capable of causing life-safety failure, but will rather list some categories of life-safety equipment. A variety of life-safety equipment components are listed in Porter et al. (1993). Categories of life-safety components include: Large, heavy objects, which if overturned could cause life-threatening trauma to a facility user Objects, which overturned, could release hazardous materials Objects whose damage could result in electrical shock to facility users, such as switches in electrical substations Equipment on whose continued operation human lives depend, such as medical apparatus in hospitals Telecommunications equipment in telephone central offices that handle emergency (911) calls Fire-detection, fire-alarm, or fire-suppression equipment 131 With these categories in mind, let P[DL,i,m | EDP] denote the probability that a component i (located in operational unit m) will be cause a life-safety failure when subjected to engineering demand parameter EDP. This is the life-safety fragility of the component, which can be determined via laboratory testing, from theoretical considerations, by engineering judgment, or some combination of these. Given the set of components in a facility that can cause life-safety failure, and given their life-safety fragility functions, one can evaluate DVL of an operational unit i in the same way DVO was evaluated in the previous report section. 7.3 Mitigation Decision-Making Methodology First, for simplicity let us assume that each damageable facility component has one best choice for mitigation, such as anchorage or bracing. Let us also assume that the cost of each mitigation measure is readily estimated, and that testing will allow us to estimate the failure probability for each component without and with mitigation. If this is the case, then using the foregoing methodology we can estimate the failure probability (either operational failure or lifesafety failure) of each operational area in either a scenario event or on an annualized basis. The following discussion assumes the latter, but it can be readily restated on a scenario basis. Let the reduction in annual failure probability for an operational area m associated with mitigating a particular component i be denoted by P[Fm,i], and the cost to mitigate component i be denoted by Ci. Then let us define i P[Fm,i]/Ci, reflecting bang-for-the-buck mitigation effectiveness. Let the mitigation measures be sorted in decreasing order of , and let P[Fm,j!] denote the failure probability associated with mitigating all of the j most cost-effective measures, and let Cj! indicate the cumulative cost of these mitigation measures. Then a plot of failure probability P[Fm,j!] versus cumulative retrofit cost Cj! might look schematically like Figure 7-1. 132 1 Failure probability Failure probability 1 Do nothing 0.1 Retrofit 1 item 0.01 Retrofit 2 items etc. 0.001 0.0001 Resource-controlled 0.1 Efficiency-controlled 0.01 Probability controlled 0.001 0.0001 0 10 20 30 40 0 Cumulative retrofit cost, $000 10 20 30 40 Cumulative retrofit cost, $000 Figure 7-1. Mitigation effectiveness chart The curves in the left-hand and right-hand figures are the same. They reflect a hypothetical operational area with 25 mitigation measures available, perhaps the anchorage or bracing of each of 25 pieces of equipment or contents. Each dot represents one particular mitigation measure. Consider for the moment only the left-hand figure. If nothing is done, the failure probability in any given year is approximately 0.08. If all the items are retrofitted, the failure probability can be reduced by more than two orders of magnitude, to 0.0003, but not to zero, reflecting a system with at least some inherent fragility. Observe that the retrofit of the first item reduces the failure probability most dramatically per dollar invested. Mathematically, the measure’s efficiency is reflected in the slope of the line between the do-nothing alternative—the “zeroth” dot at (x, y) = (0, 0.08) —and the first measure, at ($625, 0.16). Observe also that the bulk of the possible mitigation is achieved by mitigating four of the twenty-five possible items. After the sixth or seventh item, little advantage is gained through the additional mitigation measures. How could such a figure be used in make retrofit decisions? The question is particularly important if the length of the x-axis represents a large amount of money—say tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for an individual lab—and the do-nothing alternative represents an unacceptably high failure probability. 133 There are several ways the decision-maker could proceed. Each procedure starts with the question of whether the do-nothing alternative exceeds some tolerable failure probability. If not, no more need be done. Otherwise, consider three available methods illustrated in the right-hand side of Figure 7-1. Probability control. One straightforward approach is to identify a tolerable failure probability y and then gather enough resources to mitigate enough items to reduce the failure probability to y, and then stop. Let this be called the probability-controlled approach, as it essentially draws a horizontal line on the chart at a level of tolerable failure probability, and does all the mitigation measures that fall above that line. In the illustration, if the tolerable probability were 0.001, or 1 in 1000, then at least the first four measures should be undertaken, at a cost of approximately $7,300. Resource control. Another approach that seems likely in an institutional setting is to allocate a certain amount of money x for the operational area and do all the mitigation that that amount will buy. This can be called the resource-controlled approach. If for example only $5,000 were available, then the decision-maker should perform the first three measures. If these measures do not reduce the failure probability to a tolerable level, the decision-maker must hope to gather more resources in the future. Efficiency control. A third approach—probably too elaborate to be practical—is to choose a minimum tolerable bang-for-the-buck efficiency, and select all the mitigation measures with that efficiency or greater. On the chart, this would mean performing all measures whose slopes are steeper than the minimum efficiency. 7.4 Application of Loss-Estimation Methodology Prototypical laboratories. The methodology is illustrated here for several prototypical laboratories in the facility. A laboratory is defined here as all of the facility space, equipment and contents belonging to a particular investigator. It can therefore include multiple spaces in the building, including equipment and specimens in shared spaces such as the basement, 6th floor, and core. The prototypes were selected to represent the 10th, 50th, 90th, and 100th percentiles of number of components per lab in each of two categories: components that are deemed critical for 134 operations by the investigator, and components that are rated D for life safety on an A-D (best to worst) scale. Let the laboratories with the 10th, 50th, etc. quantities of critical components be denoted as LC, MC, HC, and WC, respectively, for low-critical, medium-critical, high-critical, and worst-critical. Similarly, let the laboratories with the 10th, 50th, etc. quantities of life-safety level-D components be denoted y LL, ML, HL, and WL, respectively. Bear in mind that these notations refer to the quantity of components available to be damaged, not an evaluation of the likelihood of the failure. The former is a measure of exposure; the latter, of risk. We begin with a loss analysis of the MC and ML laboratories. Description of the MC and ML laboratory. The MC and ML laboratory contains nine components that are deemed critical and eight that are rated D on an A-to-D scale of life-safety hazard. The critical components appear in three suites of the 3rd floor, and include four incubators, a freezer, two computers (or the data thereon), and two monitors, which in the view of the investigator would cause unacceptable delays in research if any were to be damaged. An inventory of these components is shown in Table 7-1. (It is questionable whether a monitor really is critical, since it can be readily replaced, but for the time being, the list will stand as assessed by the investigator.) The life-safety-level-D components also all appear in the 3rd floor. These components, listed in Table 7-2, include five refrigerators, an incubator, a freezer, and a centrifuge. Two components (the incubator and the freezer) appear in both lists. The ML laboratory contains a total of 192 pieces of equipment, with quantities by life-safety rating shown in Table 7-3. Further detail is provided in Table 7-4. 135 Table 7-1. Inventory of critical components in MC laboratory Room Key Equipment Manufacture Life Name Safety 341c B 341c 343a H I Low Temp. Incubator Incubator Computer 343a K Monitor 343a M Computer 343a N Monitor 343 343 343 C J K Incubator Incubator Freezer VWR Scientific Precision Silicon Graphics Silicon Graphics Silicon Graphics Silicon Graphics Percival Coldspot Critical Chem Quantity Retrofit Hazard Cost Equip Value Retrofit Attempt B Y N 1 $50 $3,000 N B B Y Y N N 1 1 $50 $3,000 $50 $15,000 N N B Y N 1 $50 $3,000 N B Y N 1 $50 $15,000 N B Y N 1 $50 $3,000 N C D D Y Y Y N N N 1 1 1 $150 $2,200 $1,480 $3,000 $3,000 $7,500 N N N Table 7-2. Inventory of life-safety-level-D components in ML laboratory Room Key Equipment Manufacture Life Name Safety Critical 343 343 G J Refrigerator Kenmore Incubator Percival D D N Y N N 1 1 $1,480 $2,200 $3,000 $3,000 N N 343 K Freezer Coldspot D Y N 1 $1,480 $7,500 N 343 L Centrifuge Du Pont/Sorvall Instruments D N N 1 $860 $15,000 N 343 M Refrigerator Kenmore D N N 1 $1,480 $3,000 N 345 B Refrigerator Philco D N N 1 $1,480 $3,000 Y 345 345 M N Refrigerator Kenmore Refrigerator Fisher Scientific D D N N N N 1 1 $1,480 $1,480 $3,000 $7,500 Y Y 136 Chem Quantity Retrofit Hazard Cost Equip Value Retrofit Attempt Table 7-3. Quantity of equipment in ml laboratory by life-safety hazard Life Safety Quantity D C B A 8 42 80 68 Table 7-4. Quantity of equipment in ML laboratory by life-safety hazard and equipment description LS Equipment Name D Refrigerator D Freezer D Incubator D Centrifuge C Bookcase C Centrifuge C 5-drawer File Cabinet C Water Bath C Fume Hood C Microscope Apparatus C Printer C Incubator C File Cabinet C Microscope C Gyrotory Water Bath Incubator C Orbital Shaker C Thermal Cycler C Power Supply C Peltier Thermal Cycler C Shaking Water Bath C Orbit Shaker C Rotator C Low Temp. Incubator C Electronic Equipment B Desk LS: Life-safety hazard Qty: quantity Qty LS Equipment Name Qty 5 1 1 1 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B B A A A A 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 45 12 6 4 137 Computer Mixer Microscope Stirrer Dry Bath Cabinet Refrigerator Cryogenic Container Microwave Balance Slide Projector Shelving Scanner Computer Equipment Pneumatic Table pH Meter Low Temp. Incubator Light Box Incubator Computer + Monitor Printer Open Shelving Work Bench Cabinet Computer Operability Loss Analysis. As noted above, if any of the critical components is damaged, the MC laboratory experiences operational failure. The values of P[DO,i,m | E] are provided in the damage analysis. [Remaining text awaiting preliminary damage analysis.] 7.4.1 Major Contributors to Loss [Present the mitigation effectives charts for the prototype labs, identifying the components that contribute most strongly to operational and life-safety failure.] 7.4.2 Simplifications [Can the (DM/EDP + DV/DM) detour be avoided by providing cost functions that directly relate EDP to DV? Recast the fragility functions for the prototypical labs as P[FO,m|EDP], which can then be reused for similar facilities.] Deliverables: Outline Section by May, 2002 Itemize (quantity and location of) structural, architectural, MEP, and content components/subsystems that will be considered in application by May 15, 2002 Final report by end of May 2003 Author: Comerio with all 7.5 Propagation of Uncertainties from IM to DV Identify and quantify all sources of uncertainties. Here is a preliminary list for considerations: 138 Occurrence of earthquakes in space and time Earthquake magnitude Attenuation from source to site Inherent randomness of ground motion time histories Effects of geotech. geometric and material properties on ground motions Effects of geotech. geometric and material properties on SFSI Structural geometric and material properties Modeling uncertainties at component and system levels • Construction uncertainties (human errors) Consequences of limit state exceedance (life safety, $ losses, downtime) Economic assumptions (discount rate, etc.) Recovery rates (availability of finances, state of economy in region) What are the important sources of uncertainties? Deliverables: Outline of section by January 17, 2002 (Cornell from Van Nuys) Identification of all important sources of uncertainty, by April 1, 2002 (Cornell, and Beck?) Quantification and impact on DV by July 2002 (Cornell, Ellwood, w/Zerbe/Chang) Final report by October 1, 2002 (Cornell, Ellwood w/Zerbe/Chang) 139 8. Relation to Current Practice 8.1 Current Practice of Engineering Evaluation How would an engineering office evaluate performance of the UC Science building? What are the options and tool available for an engineering evaluation? Deliverables: An assessment of the options and tools available to engineering offices, by June 2002 (Holmes, Comartin) Report by July 2002 8.2 Engineering Assessment of the PEER PBEE Methodology How to relate the FEMA 356 evaluation to the PEER PBEE evaluation From a practicing engineer’s perspective, what are the best parameters to describe performance at various levels? What needs to be done to implement the PEER PBEE methodology in engineering practice? Deliverables: A comparison between the FEMA 356 and PEER PBEE performance evaluations, by October 2002 (Comartin) A critique of the PEER PBEE methodology, and suggestions how to overcome impediments to implementation of the methodology, by December 2002 (Holmes) 140 9. Societal Issues and Impact 9.1 Stakeholders defined and issues described 9.2 Engineers vs. Occupants attitude toward loss and contents damage, downtime 9.3 Decision Variables that matter Section to be filled out with help of Ellwood, Macoun, and Zerbe/Chang 141 10. References Abrahamson, N.A. and W.J. Silva, 1997, “Empirical response spectral attenuation relations for shallow crustal earthquakes,” Seismological Research Letters 68, 94-127. Berkeley Equipment Tracking System (BETS), 2001, BETS Database, Materiel Management, Business Services, University of California, Berkeley. Boatwright, J, and D.M. 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Physics of the Earth, 44, 489-503 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999, Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2000 to 2030 - a Summary of Findings. U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 99-517. 146 Appendix A. Four methods 147 Appendix B. Engineering Demand Parameters Under the PEER framework, structural response is parameterized one or more engineering demand parameters, or EDPs. We herein use the following EDPs and notation. Displacement measures Directional peak transient interstory drift ratio. PTDi,x = Maxt(|di,x(t) – dj,x(t)|)/(hi – hj) Peak torsional drift PRDi,j = Maxt(|qi,z(t) – qj,z(t)|) Directional peak relative displacement. PRDi,j = Maxt(|di,x(t) – dj,x(t)|) Directional peak displacement. PDi,x = Maxt(|di,x(t)|) Velocity measures Directional peak diaphragm velocity. PDVi,x = Maxt(|Vi,x(t)|) Directionless peak diaphragm velocity. PDVi = Maxt(|V2i,x(t) + V2i,y(t)|)0.5 Acceleration measures Directional peak diaphragm acceleration. PDAi,x = Maxt(|Ai,x(t)|) Directionless peak horizontal diaphragm acceleration. PDAi = Maxt(|A2i,x(t) + A2i,y(t)|)0.5 Peak acceleration ratio. PARz,x,i = Maxt(|Ai,z(t)/Ai,x(t)|) Structural-deformation measures Peak plastic hinge rotation. PHRm,i,x = Maxt(|m,i,x(t)|). (Krawinkler believes this must be more clearly defined.) Peak positive curvature. PPCm,i,x = Max(Maxt(m,i,x(t)), 0) Peak negative curvature. PNCm,i,x = Min(Mint(m,i,x(t)), 0) Positive curvature ductility. PCDm,i,x = PPCm,i,x/m,i,x,y+ Negative curvature ductility. NCDm,i,x = PNCm,i,x/m,i,x,yMember chord rotation. MCRi,j,x = Maxt(rotation of the member whose ends are at nodes i and j parallel to a constant local axis x that is perpendicular to the vector from i to j at time t0) 148 Structural-force measures Directional peak force. PFm,i,x = Maxt(|Fm,i,x|) Peak principal tensile stress. PTSm,i Additional notation | | = absolute value of the term between the bars. If the term is a vector, its magnitude. Ai,x(t) = absolute acceleration of node i parallel to direction x at time t Ai,x(t) = absolute acceleration of node i parallel to direction x at time t Ai,y(t) = absolute acceleration of node i parallel to direction y at time t di,x(t) = absolute displacement of node i parallel to direction x at time t. Fm,i,x = internal force in member m at node i parallel to direction x hi = height above datum of node i hj = height above datum of node j i = reference node j = reference node ≠ i (for PTD, would be on a diaphragm, one floor below node i) m = index referring to a member Max( ) = maximum of two or more values in parentheses Maxt( ) = maximum over time t of the value in parentheses Min( ) = minimum of two or more values in parentheses qi,z(t) = rotation of node i parallel to vector z (i.e., about vertical axis) at time t, in rads qj,z(t) = rotation of node j (one floor below node i) parallel to vector z at time t, in rads T = some reference time such as the end of strong motion t0 = some reference time such as the start of strong motion t = time during motion such that t0 ≤ t ≤ T Vi,x(t) = absolute velocity of node i parallel to direction x at time t x, y, z = constant unit vectors; depending on context, may be parallel to global or local axes, and may be translational or rotational. m,i.x(t) = curvature in member m at node i parallel to direction x at time t m,i.x,y- = negative yield curvature in member m at node i parallel to direction x (a constant). 149 m,i.x,y+ = positive yield curvature in member m at node i parallel to direction x (a constant). m.i,x(t) = plastic hinge rotation, radians, in member m at node i parallel to direction x at time t 150