Chapter 3 1 a Find the equilibrium level of GDP in an economy in which investment is always 200 and the consumption function is described by the following algebraic equation: C = 120 + 0.6Y Note that this is a two-sector economy. Equilibrium level of income is given by Y A 1 c A=I+a = 200 + 120 = 320 Ye A 1 c Ye 320 1 0 .6 = 800 b Do the same for an economy in which investment is fixed at 150 and the consumption function is: C = 250 + 0.75Y Y A 1 c A=I+a = 150 + 250 = 400 Ye A 1 c Ye 400 1 0.75 = 1600 c In each of the cases above, how much saving is there in equilibrium? S=Y–C S = Y – a – cY S = –a + (1 – c)Y S = –a + sY S = –120 + (0.4*800) S = 200 or at equilibrium I = S so I & S = 200 (2-sector model only) In the second case: S=Y–C S = Y – a – cY S = –a + (1 – c)Y S = –a + sY S = –250 + ( 0.25*1600) S = 150 or at equilibrium I = S so I & S = 150 (2-sector model only) 2 Take an open economy with a constant price level and a fixed exchange rate characterised by an mpc of 0.85, a tax rate of 40%, and a marginal propensity to import of 0.26. Autonomous expenditure is initially as follows: Autonomous consumption Government expenditure Investment Exports 300 3 600 1 000 2 600 a Calculate the equilibrium level of national income, the government budget deficit or surplus, and the deficit or surplus on the current account of the balance of payments. x = c(1 – t) – m = 0.85(0.6) – 0.26 = 0.25 A Ye 1 x a I G X Ye 1 0.25 Ye 7500 10,000 0.75 Government balance: G = 3600 T = tY = 0.4 x 10 000 = 4000 therefore T – G = 400 (surplus) Balance of Payments: X = 2600 M = mY = 0.26 x 10 000 = 2600 M – X = 0 (balanced) b Calculate the effect on equilibrium national income, the government’s budget deficit or surplus, and the current account of the balance of payments, of (i) a rise in exports of 300 and (ii) a rise in government expenditure of 450 (i) a rise in exports of 300 (comment on the results) X = 300; Y = = 400 Y = 10 400 T = 4160 G = 3600 T – G = 560 surplus Since Y has increased, taxes have also increased, but G has remained unchanged. Thus the Government balance improves. X – M = 2900 – 0.26(10 400) = 196 surplus The increase in exports has improved the balance of trade, but the rise in income has also increased the level of imports, so the trade surplus increases by less than the increase in exports. (ii) a rise in government expenditure of 450 (comment on the results) A x = 600 1 x Y = 10 600 T = 4240 T – G = 190 surplus With G increasing, the budget surplus falls, despite the increased income generating higher tax revenue. Y X – M = 2600 – 0.26(10 600) = 156 deficit. Since X is unchanged, but higher income results in higher imports, the balance of trade deteriorates and a trade deficit emerges. 3 Why is the paradox of thrift a paradox? Paradox of thrift: If one person saves more he or she will be better off in the future, but if everyone tries to save more (with no increase in investment), national incomes may fall and total saving does not actually increase. It is easiest to illustrate this for a two-sector model where Y = Yd Note: s increases, rotating S to the left, but I remains fixed. The paradox is that the attempt to save more does not result in more saving. People just end up saving a higher proportion of a smaller income. Indeed the act of saving makes everyone worse off because incomes are lower. The assumption that I remains fixed is crucial in this analysis. A drop in Y may actually diminish confidence and I may even fall. 4 What is National Saving and how can the Saving-Investment gap diagram (Figure 3.9) be derived from the equations for Output and Income in the four-sector circular flow model? Use this diagram to illustrate the situation in Japan (see Box 3.10) National Savings: the sum of public and private saving = (T – G) + S Output = C + I + G + X – M Income Y = C + T + S (I – S) + (G – T) = (M – X) (see text pages 93-94) I = S + (T – G) + (M – X) National Investment I = IPUBLIC + IPRIVATE = National Saving + (X – M) National Saving = (T – G) + S The ‘gap’ must be filled by borrowing foreigners' saving. Size of the gap = (X – M). More correctly, using the GNI concept, the gap = the Current Account Deficit CAD = X – M + net international investment income. In the case of Japan Private Public Ipu savingpublic Foreign investment X-M dissaving Private Ipt 5 Find out from the daily newspaper and from any other sources what is being said about saving and investment in New Zealand. What are the issues and what are the proposals that are being discussed? It is likely that students will find concerns about the size of the Current Account Deficit and the quality of investment that foreign saving is financing. There may also be misguided discussions about how New Zealanders should save more to increase national saving. Students must remember that national saving is the sum of private and public saving and private includes business saving also. Possible commentary students are likely to find include: Concerns about the gap between national saving and investment. Concerns about low household saving. Use of the tax system to encourage saving – should we have incentives for saving for retirement? Over-investment in housing. Under-investment in the new technology and new industries. Concern about regional investment. Saving and investing for the needs of an ageing population. Students can look up the Herald’s website: http://www.nzherald.co.nz