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Plan Text
TEXT: The United State federal government should remove the annual cap
on H-1B visas for all applicants from India specializing in biotechnology
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Contention 1: The Status Quo
Companies are still seeking H1B’s-the cap will be filled by this year
NFAP 10
2010, National Foundation for American Policy, “NFAP Policy Brief”, March 2010
In recent years, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has accepted H-1B applications for the next
fiscal year on April 1. As predicted in a March 2009 NFAP Policy Brief, the H-1B quota (and the
exemption fo graduate degree holders) was exhausted before the end of the 2010 fiscal year. 1 According to U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Services, the final receipt date for the FY 2010 cap was December 21, 2009. 2 With the general
improvement in the economy in the first half of 2010, it is reasonable to assume employers will see
the H-1B quota exhausted in a similar fashion (or earlier) in FY 2011. The primary reason is the
annual quota of 65,000 (plus a 20,000 exemption for those with advanced degrees from a U.S.
university) is small relative to the size o the U.S. economy and labor force. There is no
evidence that during the long periods of time when no foreign nationals could receive new H-1B
petitions the job market improved for U.S. workers or professionals. The demand for skilled
foreign nationals has generally been so high and the quota so low that it has created problems for
employers. During a one-week filing window in April 2008, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration
Services (USCIS) received 163,000 H-1B applications, nearly twice as many petitions as slots available under the FY 2009
quota of 65,000, plus 20,000 for advanced degree holders from U.S. universities. The petitions were awarded to employers by lottery and no new
H-1B petitions could be issued the remainder of the fiscal year.
Even when the economy is uncertain, employers
still seek talented people on an ongoing basis. Moreover, even firm that downsize in one part of a
company may be hiring in another part
Despite drops in overall applicants India still needs more visas
The Economic Times 9
Indiatimes is the most popular Internet and mobile value-added services destination for the global Indian.
The Economic Times, “India to ask US for more H-1B visas”, 19 Oct 2009, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5137427.cms?prtpage=1
NEW DELHI: India is likely to ask the United States to raise the cap on visas for skilled workers at the bilateral trade
forum meeting to be held in New Delhi later this month, a government official told ET. India may also push for a special mechanism for Indian
professionals travelling to the US for short-term assignments arising out of contractual obligations. The issue of a more liberal and
simple US visa regime for professionals will be high on India’s agenda at the bilateral meeting to be chaired by Indian
commerce minister Anand Sharma and the US trade representative Ron Kirk, the official said. H-1B visas, which are non-immigrant
US visas for skilled professionals, given for up to six years, are highly popular with Indian IT companies
such as Infosys, Wipro, TCS and Satyam, which usually corner a big chunk of such visas issued by the US.
The subsidiaries of these companies in the US usually employ H-1B visa professionals to deliver services at
customer’s location. “The number of world-wide H-1B visas issued to professionals was reduced by more
than half to 65,000 per year about two years back. This has affected the functioning of Indian companies in
the US, especially ones in the IT sector,” the official said. He added that India was keen on taking up with
the new US government the issue of a possible increase in the cap on such visas. Although, this year, the
entire quota of 65,000 H-1B visas has not yet been utilised because of the on-going global economic slow
down, the official pointed out that it was a temporary phase and the demand for US work visas would soar
the moment the global economy began to look up. India is also likely to discuss with the US delegation the legislation introduced
by two US Senators seeking a restriction on the number of H-1B visas that can be issued to a company so as to bring about a balance between the
number of foreigners and Americans employed by it. This will again impact Indian IT companies in the US which mostly use Indian software
professionals to deliver services there. Commerce and industry minister Mr Sharma has already raised these issues with Mr Kirk in his recent visit
to Washington DC. India has been raising the issue of a more liberal visa regime and a higher number of work
visas also multilaterally at the World Trade Organisation.
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An increase in experienced professionals is key
Pharmabiz 8
Indian phramacetuical magazine
(“"India needs more biotech companies", July 31, 2008, http://www.pharmabiz.com/article/detnews.asp?articleid=45456&sectionid=50)
We have made significant progress, though it has not been an all round development. Biotechnology will
play an increasingly important role in society. The more we face a resource crunch, the more our current
solutions become incapable of dealing with everyday problems. The broad ability of the applications of
biotechnology to touch almost every aspect of human existence is truly amazing. Biotechnology has an impact on the food
we eat, the clothes we wear, the fuel we drive with and the medicines we use, to name a few. India is fortunate to have a government
department that is aware of these potential applications and is actively promoting the applications of
biotechnology within the country. The industry has touched $2.5 billion. What are the factors needed to take the sector to the next level of growth?
What is missing is execution. While there is a general awareness of what is possible with biotechnology,
there is a shortage of experienced people who can translate this awareness into reality. Also, there is a dearth
of people who have first-hand practical experience in the implementation of various facets of
biotechnology. Manpower coupled with an entrepreneurship and risk encouraging environment is what is
needed to create more biotechnology led enterprises. It is not enough to have just one Serum Institute or Biocon or even a Shantha
Biotech. These enterprises were created by people who were aware of what biotechnology could do and who
were willing to take risk. We need more biotechnology companies in India working on various applications
of biotechnology.
More specifically, there’s a shortage of experienced bioinformaticists with necessary
industry skills
Exim Bank 10
India’s official/govt export bank, The premier export finance institution of the country, set up in 1982 under the Export-Import Bank of
India Act 1981. Government of India launched the institution with a mandate.
(BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY IN INDIA: OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH, January, 28, 2010, http://www.businessinfo.cz/files/zahranicniobchod/Indie_Biotechnology_Industry_100128.pdf
BioInformatics. The share of BioInformatics in total revenue of Indian biotechnology sector is around 1.8% in 2008-09. This sub segment achieved
a modest growth, increasing from Rs. 190 crore in 2007-08 to Rs. 220 crore in 2008-09, at 15.7%. The industry has been found to be more export
oriented with around 77% of the total revenues coming from offshore markets in the year 2008-09. BioInformatics uses computer software tools for
database creation, data management, data warehousing, data mining, and global communication network. With the Indian IT industry eyeing for
diversification of software applications, BioInformatics poses as another potential area for IT application. The Indian
firms have been strategically devising tools so as to cater to the world requirements .
Emerging Areas in
Biotechnology Biosimilars The expiry of patent protection and regulatory data protection for certain biotechnological medicines has led to the
development of product groups that are called as biosimilars. As regulatory obstacles to biosimilars development is increasingly being resolved,
opportunities are expected to be created for generic companies in the BioPharmaceutical market. According to Datamonitor, the Indian biosimilars
market will grow to more than US$ 2 billion by 2014, as patents for key drugs are likely to expire soon. Nanotechnology From an Indian context,
nanotechnology is at a very nascent stage, but given the potential of the sector, it is expected to grow at a robust pace in the coming years. In fact,
nanotechnology has the potential to revolutionize the Indian agriculture scenario. It is also predicted that nanotechnology will transform the entire
food industry, changing the way food is produced, processed, packaged, transported, and consumed. In recent years there has been convergence of
nanotechnology and biotechnology. Stem Cell Research Stem cell research is being touted as the next wave of biotechnology not only in India but
also across the world, which could potentially revolutionize treatment of diseases in the next couple of decades. According to a study by Frost &
Sullivan, the global market for stem cell therapy is expected to be around US$ 20 billion by 2010. The Stem Cell Research Forum India has
predicted that India would have a market size of about US$ 540 million by 2010 with an annual growth rate of 15%. The potential of stem cell
technology to develop therapy for many untreatable diseases through cellular replacement or tissue engineering is being widely recognized.
Challenges Skill Development Despite mushrooming educational institutions, offering a range of courses in
biotechnology, the gap between the needs of the industry and skills taught at these institutions still remain,
though the gap is being narrowed down. It has also been mentioned that most of these institutions have limited ability
to provide the right pedagogy, or the requisite infrastructure. The challenge of bridging the gap between the
needs of the industry and the curricula taught at various institutions should be collectively addressed by the
Government, industry and academia.
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Advantage 1: Food
Scenario 1: Prices
Food prices rising now—current shortfalls are threatening their food security which
threatens to make globally high prices uncontrollable
Menon 11
Jan 3, Anjana Menon is executive editor, NDTV Profit, One of India’s largest syndicates providing latest economic news from India
(“Food security to be this decade's biggest worry”, January 3, 2011, http://www.rediff.com/business/report/food-security-to-be-biggestworry/20110103.htm)
Runaway food prices are here to stay and taming that will need far greater structural changes
than temporary clampdowns on hoarding and exports. If the last decade was about India's economic
growth, food security is what we should worry about this decade. As the economy expands,
India's hungry mouths are going to open wider and want more variety and quantity of food.
The growth in population and incomes will mean that as we munch our agricultural
production, we will also be forced, increasingly, to use our stock of greenbacks to buy food
in the international marketplace. Our enormous consumption will do to food prices what China's
lightning-paced build-up has done to commodity prices - push them on a one-way street, up north.
Anyone can see this coming, but India's complacency is somewhat comical. In many ways, the
government may have aided the food predicament without realising how great a role it has
played in shaping it. Its zeal in implementing the rural employment guarantee plan and other social sector schemes has put money into
the hands of thousands who previously had frugal access to food, if at all. Getting food to all is most certainly a good
thing especially when you consider how an economy growing at almost 9 per cent annually
still needs to have a plan in place for such a fundamental right. So while we've earned big brownie points on that score, we lose heavily on
how poorly we have anticipated our food needs. Agriculture accounts for only about 15 per cent of our gross domestic
product, and our crop yields are still low. The World Bank estimates that rice yields in India are a third of
China, and half of Vietnam. Given that all countries have a finite amount of natural
resources available to them, the only option is to vastly step up investment in improving
agricultural productivity per hectare. The government, however, over the years seems to have
focussed quite heavily on providing subsidies to the sector. Subsidies, while politically popular and sometimes necessary,
eventually rob us of greater efficiency, because they makes us lazy towards cost effective
innovation. Agriculture has lagged when it comes to better seeds, technology and improved
farming practices. Weather patterns world over are getting harder to predict and our own hapless
dependence on Mr Monsoon has already taught us that we will have to be in a constant state
of preparedness for bailouts and imports, as we haven't developed a dependable irrigation
system as a substitute. Our troubles don't quite end there. We already know of wheat rotting for lack of storage and onions getting
soaked in unseasonal rain. Much as we may claim buffer stocks, rotting food reserves are as much use to us as baby clothes to a teenager. It's time
we took storage and distribution out of government hands and gave it to the private sector to do it effectively, with pay-outs and penalties for targets
met and slipped, so it remains efficient and without leakages. As urbanisation and industrial projects compete for
land, some agricultural land will no doubt be swallowed up. Farmers have been arguing that the
increase in basic minimum wage as a result of the employment guarantee program has made labour scarce and
expensive, making farming less lucrative. Add all of this up, and ensuring food security
looks like the biggest challenge India's likely to battle. To depend increasingly on external
markets to rescue us, while dragging our feet on improvements at home, will likely end in
tears, not just over onions but in wasted greenbacks as well.
Indian shortfalls push up global prices—increased production is key
Kumar 8
Hari, Health and Society in South Asia South Asia Institute, University of Heidelberg.
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“In Fertile India, Growth Outstrips Agriculture”, New York Times,
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/22/business/22indiafood.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&pagewanted=2&adxnnlx=12949704339wW/vtumcQFBFaPnORKUyA)
The gains of the Green Revolution have begun to ebb in other countries, too, like Indonesia and the
Philippines, agriculture experts say. But the implications in India are greater because of its sheer size.
India raised a red flag two years ago about how heavily the appetites of its 1.1 billion people
would weigh on world food prices. For the first time in many years, India had to import wheat for its
grain stockpile. In two years it bought about 7 million tons. Today, two staples of the Indian
diet are imported in ever-increasing quantities because farmers cannot keep up with growing
demand — pulses, like lentils and peas, and vegetable oils, the main sources of protein and calories, respectively, for most Indians. “India
could be a big actor in supplying food to the rest of the world if the existing agricultural
productivity gap could be closed,” said Adolfo Brizzi, manager of the South Asia agriculture program at the World Bank in
Washington. “When it goes to the market to import, it typically puts pressure on international
market prices, and every time India goes for export, it increases the supply and therefore
mitigates the price levels.” In April, in a village called Udhopur, not far from here, Harmail Singh, 60, wondered aloud how farmers
could possibly be expected to grow more grain. “The cultivable land is shrinking and government policies are not farmer
friendly,” he said as he supervised his wheat harvest. “Our next generation is not willing to work in agriculture. They say it is a losing proposition.”
The luckiest farmers make more money selling out to land-hungry mall developers. Gurmeet Singh Bassi, 33, blessed with a farm on the edges of a
booming Punjabi city called Ludhiana, sold off most of his ancestral land. Its value had grown more than fivefold in two years. He made enough to
buy land in a more remote part of the state and hire laborers to till it. Meanwhile, Mr. Chawla’s neighbors migrated to North America. They were
happy to lease their land to him, if he was foolish enough to stay and work it, he said. Today, he cultivates more than 100 acres. Last year, on a small
patch of that land, he planted what no one in his village could imagine putting on their plate: baby corn, which he learned was being lapped up by
upscale urban Indian restaurants and even sold abroad. At the time, baby corn brought a better profit than the government’s price for his wheat
crop.
That risks extinction
Winnail 96
Douglas S Winnail
Dr. Winnail holds a Ph.D. in Anatomy and Preventive Medicine from University of Mississippi and an M.P.H. in Health
Education, Nutrition & International Health from Loma Linda University School of Public Health.
Ph.D., M.P.H, 1996, On the Horizon: Famine, the world ahead, September/October, http://www.kurtsaxon.com/foods004.htm
As a result grain prices are the highest on record. Worldwatch Institute's president, Lester Brown, writes, "No other economic
indicator is more politically sensitive that rising food prices.... Food prices spiraling out of
control could trigger not only economic instability but widespread political upheavals"-even wars. The chaotic weather conditions we have been experiencing appear to be related to global warming caused by the release of
pollutants into the earth's atmosphere. A recent article entitled "Heading for Apocalypse?" suggests the effects of global warming--and its side
effects of increasingly severe droughts, floods and storms--could be catastrophic, especially for agriculture. The unpredictable shifts in temperature
and rainfall will pose an increased risk of hunger and famine for many of the world's poor. With world food stores dwindling,
grain production leveling off and a string of bad harvests around the world, the next couple
of years will be critical. Agricultural experts suggest it will take two bumper crops in a row to bring supplies back up to normal.
However, poor harvests in 1996 and 1997 could create severe food shortages and push millions over
the edge. Is it possible we are only one or two harvests away from a global disaster? Is there any significance to what is happening today?
Where is it all leading? What does the future hold? The clear implication is that things will get worse before they get better. Wars, famine
and disease will affect the lives of billions of people! Although famines have occurred at
various times in the past, the new famines will happen during a time of unprecedented
global stress--times that have no parallel in recorded history--at a time when the total
destruction of humanity would be possible! Is it merely a coincidence that we are seeing a growing menace of famine on a
global scale at a time when the world is facing the threat of a resurgence of new and old epidemic diseases, and the demands of an exploding
population? These are pushing the world's resources to its limits! The world has never before
faced such an ominous series of potential global crises at the same time! However, droughts and
shrinking grain stores are not the only threats to world food supplies. According to the U.N.'s studies, all 17 major fishing areas in the world have
either reached or exceeded their natural limits. In fact, nine of these areas are in serious decline. The realization that we may be facing a shortage of
food from both oceanic and land-based sources is a troubling one . It's troubling because seafood--the world's leading source of animal protein-could be depleted quite rapidly. In the early 1970s, the Peruvian anchovy catch--the largest in the world--collapsed from 12 million tons to 2 million
in just three years from overfishing. If this happens on a global scale, we will be in deep trouble. This
precarious situation is also without historical precedent!
Scenario 2: Indo-Pak
Current use of fertilizers kills productivity and makes food insecurity inevitable
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ANI 10
Asian News International, Founded over 50 years ago, ANI is today South Asia 's leading multimedia news agency with over 100 bureaus in India , South
Asia and across the globe. (“Greenpeace ‘Living Soils’ campaign calls to save soils from harmful chemical fertilizers, August 3, 2010,
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_greenpeace-living-soils-campaign-calls-to-save-soils-from-harmful-chemical-fertilizers_1418211)
Every year Central government spends around Rs50,000 crores on chemical fertilizer subsidies, and this is
a major driver that catalyzes intensive chemical fertilizer usage4. The Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) policy
which was brought in to correct this problem continues to support only chemical fertilizers, and hence fails
in its own cause. The new policy proves to be an old wine in new bottle. “On one hand our Union government worries about the
declining agricultural productivity due to soil degradation and food security and on the other hand they
continue to support chemical fertilizers. Support for organic fertilization practices in mainstream
agriculture is very minimal. This anomaly can jeopardise the Agriculture production system”, said Tapan Sharma of
Diamond Club Community Center, Sipachar, Darrang. “We should not wait for the problems to appear. In the case of Assam we should learn from bad
experiences from other regions and go the ecological way at the earliest, said Kulendra Deka, general secretary of North East
Centre for All Round Development (NE CARD), Darrang
That kills their economy
Bandhu 10
Yogesh, Research Associate, Giri Institute of Development Studies, Lucknow
(“Artificial Market Prices and Subsidies Implication for Indian Agriculture”, 2010)
Agriculture in India is the most important segment of the economy. Growth of Agricultural sector is crucial
for Indian economy as it employs two-third of its population and contributes nearly one third of national
income. However its importance in the economic, social and political fabric of India goes well beyond what
is indicated by its contribution to the economy. The large number of poor agricultural households and their
income vulnerability are major concern among policy makers. These concerns have driven both agricultural
policies and public expenditures in agriculture in India as well as in other part of the globe. Agriculture is
also one of the major sources of export earnings of our country and is crucial for improving the balance of
payments. In recent years, the export of agricultural and allied products accounted for about one-fifth of total
export earnings of India. India's share of agricultural export has remained very low in many commodities despite inherent strength of Indian agriculture
with the exception of few commodities.
Decline makes war inevitable
Schaffer 2
(Director South Asia Program, CSIS and Former U.S. Ambassador, Washington Quarterly 2002)
Mediocre growth will extract a high price in terms of political and foreign policies.
Without reforms, India's economy
will sag, leading to competitive subsidization and spiraling fiscal deficits. A more worrisome issue for the United States, however, is that this
situation could tempt India's government to take an unusually strident line toward Pakistan and its other
neighbors, which, in turn, would increase the risk of some kind of miscalculation or desperate
move by Pakistan. Continues…Particularly striking about the building blocks for the new Indo-U.S. relationship is how little Pakistan
figures in them. Yet, the long-standing dispute between India and Pakistan remains the greatest obstacle to the role India wants to play in the
world, and the possibility of unintended Indo-Pakistani conflict is still the single greatest potential danger the
United States perceives in South Asia.
Leaving Pakistan out of a discussion of Indo-U.S. ties would be disingenuous, particularly in
the aftermath of September 11. India's unresolved problems with Pakistan start with Kashmir, the subject of conflicting claims by India and
Pakistan and the object of two wars between them as well as a continuing insurgency, supported by Pakistan, in the Indian-held parts of the state.
The list of problems between the two countries also includes a group of secondary issues related to Kashmir, such as the status of the world's most
desolate, disputed military installation on the Siachen Glacier in the high Himalayas, as well as a number of other "normalization" issues, including
trade and visa regulations. Since September 11, the level and frequency of violence has increased within Kashmir and across the "Line of Control"
that separates India and Pakistan. Statements coming from both governments provide no encouragement that the leadership of either country is
close to a sustainable formula for resuming talks about the situation. India's most recent initiative for beginning talks with Kashmiri political
leaders also seems to be going nowhere. Even worse, high-profile terrorist incidents, including suicide bombings of the State Assembly building in
(CONTINUED)
Srinagar (capital of the part of Kashmir administered by India) and more recently at the Indian parliament in New Delhi, have raised tensions
between India and Pakistan dramatically. The most likely culprits in both cases are militant organizations that also appear on the U.S.
government's list of terrorist organizations, active in Kashmir but headquartered in Pakistan. U.S. actions since that latest incident have made clear
that the freedom of action these groups have enjoyed in Pakistan is incompatible with the relationship Pakistan is now trying to establish with the
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United States. The regional military buildup that followed the bombing demonstrates how easily
such incidents can provoke a
cataclysmic set of reactions and how vulnerable regional peace is to another violent incident. Resolving
these problems will require a high level of Indian and Pakistani leadership. Both countries, as well as Kashmiri
representatives, urgently need to start a process that will eventually lead to an arrangement that is comfortable for
all three parties and that addresses the issue of the Indo-Pakistani relationship and the problems of
governance within Kashmir. Any such process would be slow and crisis-ridden; finding a solution is a marathon effort, not a quick fix. The
obstacles to the success of such an endeavor are daunting. In India, coalition politics and broad popular resentment against Pakistan make it
difficult for a leader to push even in the best of times for a reasonable settlement of India's problems with Pakistan. If India's economic
performance is mediocre, this task will become more difficult. For Pakistan, Kashmir has powerful popular appeal. The
political compromise required for a settlement would be very painful, and the strength Pakistan's
government has gained by confronting militant groups over their activities in Afghanistan will not easily
carry over to Kashmir. Without such an effort, however, the likelihood of new and dangerous confrontations over Kashmir is unacceptably
high. Despite the new issues that unite India and the United States, this all-too-familiar one remains at the top of U.S. foreign
priorities and cries out for a sustained and sophisticated U.S. diplomatic strategy.
Second, Loss of food security means nuclear resource wars
Crowell 9
Ex-Member of the Air Reserve Technician program, a nucleus of managers, planners and trainers who have knowledge and expertise to smooth Air Force
Reserve Command (AFRC) units' transition from a peacetime to a wartime environment
(Gary, “Continueing Challenge”, Written at Znet. Establish policy news network, August 15, 2009, http://www.zcommunications.org/climate-changedrought-and-indias-looming-food-and-water-crisis-by-vandana2-shiva)
I read your commentary with great interest. Like all the other commentary I read in Z, I learned something solid and real, and the entire net is
beginning to help me to think in a different way. The contributing factor to the challenge of climate change is the acsending population growth
worldwide, although some regions such as Western Europe and Russia are experiencing a decline in birth rate,
China, India, Indonisia are growing, maybe not as fast and with some variance here and there. There are
still more than six billion people in the world today. It is expected, if I am not mistaken, that in another generation or so there
will be ten billion people consuming the finite resources of this planet. India will outgrow China in population, and expand
[aggressively] agressively as a military power in the region. Food security plays right into this. The ongoing
tension between Pakistan and India over [Kashmir] Kashmire, a food growing area, could lead to nuclear war.
Pakistan is espesially vulnerable and with its' hundred or so nukes faceing India's nukes over the security of
its' share of [Kashmir] Kashmire not to mention its' suspicion of India's increased diplomatic activity in
Afghanistan brings one to take a quick look at history. One does not have to go far back. Take for instance Japan's
rise as an military-industrial power. Because only about 20% of the land in the Japanese Islands could
produce food, and with limited natural resources for industrial exploitation, an expansion onto the Asian
mainland (with Anglo-Euopean-American help) was essential to what they saw as their survival. Today, China is building an
navy designed to eventually dominate the region. India will have five submarines with missile launch capability within
the next few years, and Pakistan has its' own military expansion ongoing. Yet, we are fearful of North
Korea's half dozen or so nukes, because that country is especially hungry.
War would go nuclear
UPI 4
(Nuclear War A Real Fear In South Asia Washington (UPI) Dec 17 2004 http://www.spacedaily.com/news/nuclear-india-pakistan-04k.html)
No conventional war between India and Pakistan will remain limited for long and will gradually lead to a
full-scale war and ultimately to a nuclear conflict, warns a study by a Pakistani defense official. The study, presented recently at a Washington thinktank, looks at various scenarios that could lead to an all-out war between the two South Asian neighbors, which conducted a series of nuclear tests in May 1998 and also
India and Pakistan have fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947 and are still engaged
in 57-year-old conflict in the Himalayan valley of Kashmir which caused two of these three wars. Most of the possible war
scenarios discussed in this study also focus on Kashmir where most international observers believe even a small conflict has
the potential of escalating into a full-fledged war. Recently, both India and Pakistan have agreed to resolve their differences through
dialogue and have taken several steps lessen tensions. The study by the Pakistani defense official envisages possible
possess nuclear-capable missiles.
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Pakistani response to a various proposals being discussed in India's defense circles for dealing
with the Kashmir insurgency, which India blames on Pakistan-backed militants. The author, who wished not to
be identified, argues that recently India has put forward the concept of a limited conventional war aimed at
achieving a specific political objective, such as putting down the uprising in Kashmir. But the
author warns that what India may see as a limited conventional war, may not be accepted to
Pakistan as such. Similarly, what India defines as limited political perspective, may have a
different implication for Pakistan, he adds. The author points out that most Western analysts and scholars are not
comfortable with India's limited war doctrine and they also believe that a limited war between
India and Pakistan cannot remain limited for long
Extinction
Nabi 3
Dr. Ghulam Nabi, India-Pakistan Summit and the Issue of Kashmir, July 13, 2003, p. http://www.pakistanlink.com/Letters/2001/July/13/05.html
The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied
for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two
wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a
nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary. This apocalyptic
vision is no idiosyncratic view. The Director of Central Intelligence, the Department of Defense, and world
experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. Both India and Pakistan are racing like
thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles. Their defense budgets are
climbing despite widespread misery amongst their populations. Neither country has initialed the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, or indicated an inclination to ratify an
impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.
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Plan creates a sustainable “gene” revolution in India which ensures long term food
security, lower prices, and better quality of life
Prakash 2k
Professor in Plant Molecular Genetics and Director of the Center for Plant Biotechnology Research at Tuskegee University
(C.S., “Gene Revolution and Food Security”, Agbioworld, March 2, 2000 http://www.agbioworld.org/biotech-info/articles/agbioarticles/revolution.html)
A revitalised Indian agriculture can be the engine of growth and biotechnology can provide the needed fuel,
says C S Prakash. India's greatest achievement in the past century has been its ability to increase its food
production and thus keeping the Malthusian fears at bay. Nevertheless, we still face daunting challenge of
hunger, poverty and malnutrition that will only get worse as the population increases in absolute numbers.
Recent advances in crop science, however, provide us with a new window of opportunity to deal with the issue
of food security. Genetic engineering is clearly the most revolutionary tool to impact agricultural research
since the discovery of genetics by Mendel. Sensible integration of biotechnology in research can accelerate the
pace of agricultural improvement and is of considerable relevance to an agrarian country like India.
Transforming India's agriculture is critical not only to deal with the issue of hunger and poverty but also to
strengthen the sector that is so fundamental to India's existence. The 'green revolution' is showing signs of
fatigue and farm productivity increases are now flattening. There are serious constraints to productivity in Indian agriculture because of
small holdings, the subsistence nature of farming, vagaries of the weather, limited water, poor land condition and stress factors such as drought, heat and saline soil
conditions. Much of the crop yield is lost due to disease, pests, and weeds while a considerable proportion of harvested fruits and vegetables are spoilt during
transportion and storage. There
is thus an urgent need to reinvigorate agricultural research to address crop
productivity issues by redesigning crop plants to benefit the farmer and the consumer, and also to develop
innovative 'value-added' agricultural products to enhance the revenue base of farming. Profitable farming not only
enhances the quality of life in rural India but will also help limit the urban sprawl due to migration and its attendant environmental problems . Beyond crop
productivity, there is also a need to address the larger food and environmental issues. A revitalised Indian
agriculture can be the engine of growth for the 21st century, and biotechnology can provide the needed fuel.
When deployed in a sensible and responsible manner , modern biotechnological tools such as genetic improvement of crops can
advance India's agriculture to address 'head-on' the challenge of feeding its increasing population with its
limited economic, land and water resources. India cannot afford to lag behind in critically examining these new technologies and making them
available to its farmers under suitable safeguards. Most experts say that the greatest promise of biotechnology is in its
application in developing countries like India and China because of their high reliance on agriculture, large farming
areas, low crop yield and the urgency for food increase and economic revitalisation . Developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina,
China and Chile have already made considerable economic advances by integrating biotechnology into their
agricultural programmes. Others such as Cuba, Egypt and South Africa are also following close behind and clearly see biotechnology as a means of
advancing their economies in an accelerated manner . India can, therefore, ignore biotechnology only at its own peril.
Biotechnology can be a boon to Indian agriculture in may ways. Crop damage can be minimised through
disease- and pest-resistant varieties while reducing the use of chemicals. Conventional plant breeding has
little ammunition to deal with these problems in an expedient and effective manner. India also has serious problems of
blast in rice, rust in wheat, leaf rust in coffee, viruses in tomato and chillies and leaf spot in groundnut across the country . These problems can be
significantly minimised in an ecologically-friendly manner with the development of genetically
reprogrammed seeds designed to resist these disease attacks, while minimising or even eliminating costly
and hazardous pesticide sprays. Genetic modification can also address the problems of shoot borers in brinjal and okra, caterpillars in pappadi
(Dolichos) beans, and of course, the boll wormin cotton which resulted in the tragic suicides of hundreds of cotton farmers. India is the third largest producer of cotton in
the world (after China and the US). Although cotton occupies only 5 per cent of the country's land, nearly 50 per cent of all pesticide used in india is bought by cotton
farmers alone at a staggering cost of Rs 16 billion annually and with incalculable impact on the environment and human health. Development
of cotton
varieties with resistance to pests thus can enhance the welfare of Indian farmers, while helping both the
India economy and its environment. New genome technologies along with bioinformatics will further
propel Indian agriculture into a new era where complex traits such as photosynthetic efficiency and crop
yield can be enhanced. Geneomic tools with esoteric names such as 'DNA Chips', 'Gene Shuffling' and
'Director Evolution' are already making an impact on biomedical research enabling the discovery of new
drugs and rapid disease diagnostics, and will surely impact agricultural research. With no more arable land
available for agricultural expansion in India, enhancing stress tolerance in crop plants will permit
productive farming on currently unproductive lands. Abiotic factors such as drought, heat, cold, soil salinity
and acidity cripple Indian crops seriously constraining their growth and yield. One could extend the
growing season of crops and minimise losses due to environmental factors. The shelf life of fruits and vegetables can be prolonged
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to reduce losses to food spoilage, expand the market vista and improve food quality. There
has been much human misery caused by
hazardous substances in many Indian food crops
such as the presence of neurotoxin in kesar dal, cyanide in tapioca, aflatoxins in groundnut and antimetabolites in chickpea, horsegram and sweet
potato. Biotechnology has the capability to 'silence' these undesirable traits and thus improve the quality of
these 'humble' food crops so critical to the nutrition of disadvantaged and resource-poor consumers. Prolonged
'vase life' of cut-flowers will help broaden the market for horticulturists, while reducing losses and minimising their dependency on expensive cold storage. Human
and livestock health can be improved through crops with enhanced nutritional quality traits such as ironrice and vitamin A-rich rapeseed oil, and through the production of edible vaccines and other
pharmaceutical proteins. Crops with industrial applications such as those producing enzymes, 'designer'
starch and oils, biodegradable plastics and industrial chemicals can also be developed to reinvigorate the
Indian economy and create jobs. Crop plants that can clean up soil, water and air through
'phytoremediation' can be developed and planted in critical areas. Trees that grow faster with fewer disease and pest problems can
be developed with positive impact both on the rural economy and the environment . The strategic integration of biotechnology tools into
Indian agricultural systems can revolutionise Indian farming and usher in a new era in the countryside.
Compared to the 'green revolution', the 'gene revolution' is relatively scale-neutral, benefiting big and small
farmers alike. It is also environment friendly. Thus, it can be of great help to the smallest farmer with limited resources, in increasing farm
productivity through the availability of improved but powerful seed. It can also reduce his dependency on chemical inputs such as
pesticides and fertilisers. India unequivocally needs the help of such technologies to march into the next
century with a vision for economic upliftment and prosperity for its two-thirds of populace dependent on
farming.
The genomic analytical power of bioinformatics makes is critical to an Indian gene
revolution
Sankar 3*Abbreviation
Dr. R. Sankararamakrishnan is an Asstt Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences and Bioengineering. His predoctoral studies were at the
Indian Institute of Science. He received post-doctoral training in computational biology at Universitiy of Oxford and University of Illinois, UrbanaChampaign. He was serving as a Research Asstt Professor at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York before joining the Institute in April, 2002
(“Bioinformatics in Post-Genomic Era”, 2003, http://www.iitk.ac.in/directions/oct03/genomic.htm)
Bioinformatics involves the application of information technology to the management and analysis of
biological data such as the sequences of nucleic acids in genes and amino acids in proteins. On average, the biological
databases are doubling in size every 15 months. As a result of this surge in data, computers have become indispensable in biological
research. This is evident from the huge increase in the number of papers published in the area of "Bioinformatics". Most bioinformatics analyses focus on
three primary sources of data: DNA or protein sequences, macromolecular structures and the results of
functional genomics experiments. Recently M. Gerstein of Yale University has submitted a definition of "bioinformatics" to the Oxford English Dictionary. According to
his definition, "Bioinformatics is conceptualizing biology in terms of molecules (in the sense of Physical Chemistry) and applying informatics techniques (derived from disciplines such as applied
bioinformatics is a
management information system for molecular biology and has many practical applications". The
applications of bioinformatics include predicting genes from genomes, identifying coding and non-coding
regions, predicting protein structures and protein-protein interactions. This article will attempt to cover some of these applications. Prof.
maths, computer science and statistics) to understand and organize the information associated with these molecules, on a large scale. In short,
Sarkar's article "The Human Genome: The Book of Life" which appeared in the November 2000 issue of "Directions" gives further details about various aspects of human genome project. Gene
Prediction It was initially believed that humans might require 100,000 genes to perform the complex functions. The total number of predicted genes for laboratory fruit fly and for a simpler
organism Caenorhabditis elegans are ~13,600 and 19,000, respectively. After the first draft was published in June 2000, the groups that sequenced the human genome found evidence for only
30,000 to 40,000 genes. However, these estimates have been recently revised, and it is now suggested that humans possess ~70,000 genes. Traditionlly, genes were cloned, sequenced and
experimentally characterized one-gene-at-a-time, allowing determination of the function of the gene products with a high level of confidence. Now with the whole-genome sequences available,
identifying genes from novel genomic data is a classical problem in bioinformatics. Several gene prediction algorithms are available from the public domains. Abinitio gene prediction methods are
based on general properties and characteristics of protein-encoding genes with simple statistical measures. Neural network and dynamic programming approaches are used in these methods.
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have used pattern recognition techniques in predicting genes. Other approaches to gene finding are based on homology to known genes. The homology-based
methods search novel DNA sequences for coding regions similar to any known protein. An assessment of various gene prediction methods concluded that the sensitivity of ab initio methods remains
high and they generate over predictions. When a gene and its function are predicted, there is no way of knowing how accurate the assignment is. Thus gene identification and annotation constitute
the first step of the global reconstruction of the puzzle defining a living thing. This reconstruction addresses various biological aspects, including the overall genome organization, the interaction
network linking proteins, metabolic pathway, structure of the cell and the evolutionary history of the species. Gene Expression Gene expression studies have focused on devising methods to cluster
genes by similarities in expression profiles. This is in order to determine the proteins that are expressed together under different cellular conditions. Advances in the production of genome-scale
expression data have created tremendous opportunities and challenges in the elucidation of individual gene modulation, patterns of coordinate expression among individual genes and ultimately
genetic networks. This progress has stimulated the exploration of a number of algorithms and visualization tools. These methods include hierarchical clustering and self-organizing maps. In
hierarchical methods, genes with most similar expression profiles are clustered first and those with more diverse profiles are included iteratively. This method is derived from algorithms to
construct phylogenetic trees. In self-organizing map, the user pre-defines the number of clusters for the dataset. The clusters are initially assigned randomly and the genes are regrouped iteratively
until they are optimally clustered. The expression data profiles are related to structure, function and subcellular localization of each gene product. Mapping these properties provides an insight into
the characteristics of proteins that are expressed together and also suggest some interesting conclusions about the overall biochemistry of the cell. Comparative analysis of gene expression data can
be extended to tumor cells, in which the underlying causes of cancer can be uncovered by pinpointing areas of biological variations compared to normal cells. One of the difficulties in cancer
treatment has been to target specific therapies to pathogenetically distinct tumor types, in order to maximize efficacy and minimize toxicity. For example, subclasses of acute leukaemia were
successfully distinguished based on the expression profiles of the cells. As the approach does not require prior biological knowledge of the diseases, it may provide a generic strategy for classifying all
types of cancer. Proteins and Proteomics With the accumulation of vast amounts of DNA sequences in databases, researchers are realizing that merely having complete sequences of genomes is not
sufficient to elucidate biological function. The inevitable inventory of genes produced by the genome projects heralds the start of a new era: Age of proteomics. Although DNA is the blueprint for life,
it is the set of proteins that are actually transcribed and translated that determine the function of a particular cell. In 1975, the invention of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis allowed protein
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biochemists to cut isolated spots out of a gel and sequence their amino acids. In mid 1990s, the gradual appearance of protein identification methods used nascent DNA and protein databases to
analyze mass spectra of protein fragments. Preliminary studies suggest an average number of protein forms per gene of one to two in bacteria, three in yeast and three to more than six in human
beings. Thus a human body may contain more than half a million proteins and these proteins undergo modification by addition of specific carbohydrate chains or phosphorylation. The field
proteomics is defined as characterization of all proteins and is the large-scale study of the complete protein complement of the cell, tissue or organism. The major challenge now to biologists is to use
the wealth of genetic information available from the genome sequencing programme not just to decode the amino acid sequence of the encoded protein, but also to find out their function. MultipleSequence Alignments Genomics-based approaches initially use computer-based similarity searches against proteins of known function. The results may allow some broad inferences to be made
about possible functions, which can then be explored experimentally. Multiple sequence alignments have been traditionally used to deduce structure / function by homology, to detect conserved
motifs in protein structures and in phylogenetic studies. Multiple alignment programs have used dynamic programming technique, Hidden Markov Models, stochastic techniques such as Simulated
Annealing and Genetic Algorithms and iteration techniques. In recent alignment programs, information other than the sequences themselves is now being incorporated into the multiple alignment.
(For an example of multiple sequence alignment see box on page 9). Homologous proteins are both sequentially and structurally similar and advances in sequence database search methods have led
to the detection of more and more distant homologues. The multiple sequence alignment reveals evolutionary constraints existing at particular sequence patterns that conserve residues or their
physico-chemical properties and thus allow a straightforward detection of conserved structural motifs, localization signals or key functional residues that characterize a family or sub-family of
proteins. Molecular phylogeny studies have relied on multiple alignments to define phylogenetic relationships between organisms. In the post-genomic era, phylogenetic studies can now address the
entire proteome of organisms widely scattered across the phylogenetic spectrum. Proteins are long chain molecules (polypeptide chains) and they can adopt infinite variety of conformations, each
corresponding to a unique set of values for the various peptide backbone rotation angles. Professor G.N. Ramachandran, and his colleagues from University of Madras in 1963 investigated this
problem and discovered that many of the hypothetical conformations can be excluded from considerations on the basis of steric overlaps. His findings, popularly known as Ramachandran map
(shown in left), have revolutionized the understanding of protein's three-dimensional structures. Structural Genomics Analysis of genomic sequences in organisms for which genomes have been
sequenced seem to code "hypothetical proteins" that cannot be related to other proteins of known function or structure. Understanding the physiological function of the protein products of these so
called "orphan" genes has emerged as a major challenge. Three-dimensional structural information of the proteins provides insights into biology by elucidating the relatedness to proteins of known
biological function, which could not have been arrived by sequence alone. Structural information can also identify binding motifs and catalytic centers even for proteins without a known biological
function. From the structural features, catalytic mechanisms, protein-protein associations or protein nucleic acid interactions could be predicted or proposed. Unfortunately, to date, only a small
fraction of known proteins and even fewer number of hypothetical proteins have had their structures solved by classic crystallographic methods or by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)
spectroscopy. The structure of the protein is characterized by its folds. Many researchers believe that a limited number of protein folds (1000 to 5000) exist in nature. It is predicted that all these
folds can be revealed by examining approximately 10,000 unique proteins. Recently, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) of the National Institutes of Health sponsored a
protein structure initiative to determine the three dimensional structures of thousands of proteins within a decade. This $150 million pilot program could lead to the solution of up to 10,000 crystal
structures in the next 10 years. In contrast, only 2000 unique structures have been determined in the past 40 years of research. It is hoped that improvements in protein isolation, protein
purification, crystallization and X-ray diffraction could turn the vision of structural genomics initiative to reality. Identification of potential binding motifs and catalytic centers of proteins with no
clear function from have already shown promises using structural genomics approach. One such example is Histidine Triad (HIT) family of proteins. HIT proteins were identified through genome
analysis, from a large ubiquitous family, but as yet have no known specific biological function. These proteins are believed to be involved in cancer. Structure solution of several HIT family members
identified common structural motifs, which were used to identify a catalytic center and nucleotide-binding sites. These structural studies showed that HIT family of proteins belong to the class of
enzymes called nucleotide hydrolases and even enabled identification of compounds that could inhibit catalytic function of the HIT proteins. Computer Modeling Although technological advances
have occurred in crystallography and NMR, these methods cannot keep demand to know the structures of all proteins. Efforts to bypass these methods have led to the advancement of computational
modeling approaches. Computational modeling utilizes predictive and comparative methods to fashion a new protein structure. Ab initio methods use the physicochemical properties of the amino
acid sequence of a protein to literally calculate a 3D structure (lowest energy model) based on protein folding. These methods use one or a combination of molecular dynamics, molecular mechanics
and quantum mechanics techniques to describe atomic and molecular states interactions. In homology modeling, the structural and functional characteristics of known proteins that share many of
the sequence features ( > 30 percent identity) are used as a template to create a hypothesized structure for an unkown protein with similar functional and structural features. Threading is essentially
a small-scale form of homology modeling based on the realization that there are a limited number of structural folds that define the structure of a protein in its native and most energetically
favorable state. The individual folds serve as precise descriptors and the resulting collection of protein folds is a essentially an encyclopedia that describe each of the structural motifs a protein may
adopt. These fold libraries are used by threading algorithms to create a theoretical structure of a protein. The importance of modeling techniques is further highlighted by the fact that the majority of
the experimentally solved protein structures belong to the category of water-soluble proteins. Membrane proteins that are imbedded within the membranes constitute the second major category of
proteins and it is estimated that about 30 % of genes may encode membrane proteins. Integral membrane proteins participate in important physiological functions and are implicated in major
diseases. These proteins are difficult to crystallize and as a result only a handful of membrane protein structures are available at atomic resolution. In the mid 1980s, the structure of the first integral
membrane protein, photosynthetic reaction center, was solved and subsequently this work was awarded with Nobel prize. Structures of the potassium channel and rhodopsin are the most recent
major breakthroughs. Potassium channel is the first channel protein to have a 3D structure determined in atomic resolution. Rhodopsin belongs to the class of G-Protein Coupled Receptors
(GPCRs) whose transmembrane segments traverse the membrane seven times. GPCRs constitute vast group of cell-surface proteins that includes hormone, neurotransmitter, growth factor, light
and odorant receptors. In the absence of experimentally available structures, computer modeling techniques are the most important tools to study the structure-function relationships of these
proteins. Computer Simulations The three-dimensional structures of the proteins are only the beginning towards understanding the biological functions of the proteins. X-ray crystallography gives a
snap-shot of the protein structure and it does not reveal the full picture. In many of proteins, the adequate explanations of the mechanisms of a protein's functions come from the molecular
simulations that define the force fields surrounding the proteins. The approaches used in the simulations are molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics, Monte Carlo and quantum chemical studies.
The importance of these approaches can be illustrated by the recent simulations studies on potassium channel protein. Nearly all cells have membranes spanned by potassium-conducting channel
proteins. Potassium channels catalyze the ionic movements required to generate and shape electrical signals in neurons. In other words, without these channels, our nerves simply would not work.
The crystal structure showed a narrow 'selectivity filter' in which dehydrated potassium ion (but not sodium ion) fits precisely. Molecular dynamics free energy simulations revealed the ion
permeation mechanism in this channel protein even before the support came from experiments in the form of X-ray work. Simulation studies combined with the crystallography structures offer
fundamental insights into the physical chemistry of ion conduction in biology. These studies show how ions are coordinated in the selectivity filter; they revealed the nature of potassium ions in
transit between the channel and the aqueous solvent; and they indicate the character of water in the cation's inner hydration shell. Drug Discovery One of the earliest medical applications of
bioinformatics has been in aiding rational drug design (See accompanying article by B. Prakash). Only a small fraction of the human genes from human genome will be amenable to therapeutic
intervention. It has been estimated that the number of proteins that are drug targets is probably 5,000 to 10,000. The majority of the targets are receptors such as GPCRs and enzymes. In fact, more
than 50% of prescription drugs act on GPCRs. Computer-aided drug design (CADD) involves the design of potential drugs based on structure, physical and chemical constraints and parameters
between the drug ligand and its target, a protein. This "rational drug design" methodology has been a very powerful tool in pharmaceutical research, where drug development has traditionally been a
hit-or-miss process of blindly testing compounds that may or may not interact with a protein. Using CADD methods, researchers can now model drugs to a specific set of criteria. When combined
with combinatorial chemistry methods, scientists can dramatically increase their chances for a hit. Recent advancements in CADD include the introduction of evolutionary techniques, such as
genetic algorithms and fitness functions. Genetic algorithms induce spontaneous atomic changes to create new molecular species, while fitness functions ascertain the chemical survivability of the
new species amongst the pool of biochemicals. Gene expression studies with the help of bioinformatics may be used to hunt for new antimicrobial targets. Identification of proteins produced by
microorganisms is facilitated by the small number of genes and the completion of genome sequencing for many microorganisms. The main aim of most studies has been the search for new
diagnostic markers, candidate antigens for vaccines and determinants of virulence. For some of the microorganisms studied, two-dimensional electrophoresis databases are available on the internet.
Myobacterium tuberculosis is probably the most studied microorganism. Tuberculosis still causes more than 2 million deaths each year, so an international priority is to improve diagnosis and
develop a more effective vaccine. The current BCG vaccine varies in efficacy from almost zero protection in southern India to about 70% protection in the UK. Examination of genetic differences by
genomic analysis has been helpful in identifying the potential regulators of virulence. Such studies may also provide the basis for discrimination between BCG immunization and the presence of
virulent tuberculosis. Protein three-dimensional structure is a key to understand the function of the protein. For example, structures of HIV protease (shown in left) are used to understanding the
ligand-binding properties and in the designing of new drug molecules that can bind the active-site much more efficiently. Bioinformatic Tools The heart of bioinformatics analyses is the software
and the databases upon which many of the analyses are based. Traditionally bioinformatics software required high-end workstations (desktop to mid-range servers) with a multitude of plug-ins
and/or peripheral equipment and a user (administrator) willing to routinely download database updates. Modern experimental technologies are providing seemingly endless opportunities to
. The drive to capitalize on this enormous pool of information in
order to understand fundamental biological phenomena and develop novel therapeutics is pushing the
development of new computational tools to capture, organize, categorize, analyze, mine, retrieve and share
data and results. Most current computational applications will suffice for analyses of specific questions using relatively small data sets. Object Management Group (OMG), a software
generate massive amounts of sequence, expression and functional data
standards organization have come up with CORBA, a middleware that mediates between different languages, information sources and analysis tools, each with its own way of representing data and
methods. CORBA interfaces for methods and XML, the souped-up version of HTML, for data formats, implemented in an open source environment. Dr. Shankar Subramaniam's group at University
of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign (now in University of California , San Diego) has developed "Biology Workbench" with which one can access all publicly available databases. With access to a
networked computer, biologists can use the bioinformatics tools provided by this workbench in a point-and-click mode. But to expand scientific horizons, to accommodate larger and larger data sets
Intelligent
integration with other data domains, such as chemical and clinical, is the ultimate goal. Future of Bioinformatics in India
The draft of human genome by the public consortium is a culmination of work done from several countries. Although developing nations have to catch up in
genome research, significant progress is being made in this area. Notably, Brazil has recently published the
genomic sequence of the plant pathogen Xyllela fastidiosa that causes a range of plant diseases. It causes serious
diseases to orange trees, an economically important factor for Brazil. India is home to a large number of
indigenous populations and it is enviously positioned with this rich diversity of gene pool. Genomic studies
and to find patterns and see relationships that span temporal and spatial scales, new tools that broaden the scope and complexity of the analyses are needed.
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and bioinformatics offer ways to improve healthcare and the quality of life. With its excellent scientific talents, India
can identify and focus on specific areas of national importance. In inter-disciplinary areas such as
bioinformatics, collaborations between different groups within India and abroad should be established . In order
to access the databases scattered throughout the world, scientists working in the area of bioinformatics need fast internet connections. With its world-class software
skills, much needed bioinformatics tools can be developed in India. Following the "green revolution",
indeed a "gene revolution" has to take place in India.
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Advantage 2: U.S.-Indo Relations
Protectionist immigration policies will terminally strain economic relations
Singh 10
Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute at the National University of Singapore
(“H1B Visa Fee Hike: Will Indo-US Ties be Affected?”, August 2010)
Third, there
is the issue of how and to what extent this specific development will impact India-US relations in
the near to middle future. Besides official protests to the Obama administration over the implications of
this bill for India-based companies, the Indian Government now seems to be contemplating referring the
matter to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In a statement on 17 August 2010, India’s Commerce
Secretary Rahul Khullar, was quoted as saying that the visa fee hike ‘is WTO incompatible’ and that ‘if the
US wishes to put up its protectionist barriers to hurt itself let them do it but where a measure is specifically
targeting my commercial interest I cannot keep quiet’.13 The Obama administration meanwhile seems aware
of the depth of India’s grievances on the matter and has attempted to address Indian concerns.14 With the USIndia trade policy forum planned in three to four weeks time and Obama’s scheduled visit to India in November 2010, there are indications that the US might make
certain adjustments in implementing the visa hike in the light of Indian concerns. Reflecting this optimism, Indian
officials were recently quoted
as saying that they were ‘hopeful of a quick solution’ before the two sides met for their trade policy forum.15
On the whole, it is still not clear if any solution satisfactory to both sides can be found on this issue at this stage or how long it would take to arrive at such a solution.
Although it is evident that this issue has created some friction in Indo-US ties, it is unlikely to unravel the
multilayered links that both countries have increasingly developed since Obama assumed office. This incident, however, does point to a
larger potential irritant for future Indo-US ties. This irritant originates from the various domestic pressures
on the Obama administration that could impact US foreign relations with India. More specifically, as the
American public increasingly embraces protectionist postures espoused by US politicians, in tandem with
the shrill debate over immigration, an anti-immigration protectionist discourse is emerging within the US
with foreign knowledge workers an important target.16 Indian knowledge workers in this regard would be
one of the hardest hit. So might the Indo-US relations in the longer term.
Additionally, Cyber security is underemphasized leaving the U.S. vulnerable to
increasingly complex attacks
Goldsmith 10
Jack, Professor@The Harvard Law School (“The New Vulnerability”, The New REpublic June 7, 2010, http://www.tnr.com/article/books-and-arts/75262/the-newvulnerability?page=0,0)
For the past few decades, and with
increasing frequency, many thousands of foreign agents like the Google hackers, sitting
before computer monitors abroad, have “entered” the United States to steal or to destroy valuable digital
assets. They have raided the Pentagon and other government agencies to disrupt their communications and to lift sensitive or
classified information. They have attacked American corporations and taken or destroyed untold millions of dollars worth of data or intellectual property. They have
contacted CEOs and credibly threatened to destroy their businesses unless the CEOs met the extortionists’ demands. And they
have planted malicious
software--known ominously as malware--inside government and corporate headquarters, and in critical
infrastructure systems such as electrical grids and power plants. Some of this malware allows them to monitor activities in
these places; other malware, called “logic bombs,” enables them to trigger a destructive attack years later, if
doing so would be useful. If this were happening before our eyes--if thousands of foreign agents were
physically entering our borders, breaking into brick-and-mortar buildings, and removing or destroying billions of dollars of proprietary information
and monetary assets--the government would declare a national emergency. But it is happening largely out of public
sight, on computers and computer networks, and so most people are not worried . The press is increasingly filled with scary
stories about cyber thefts, cyber attacks, and even cyber war, and Google’s public confrontation with the Chinese raised awareness of the problem. But the cyber
menace is still largely invisible to the public, which naturally discounts threats it cannot see, no matter how
alarming the headlines. Yet the threat is not invisible to the government. And the government is alarmed. “This cyber threat is one of the
most serious economic and national security challenges we face as a nation,” President Obama declared in May 2009, before pledging
that the protection of “our digital infrastructure” was a national security “priority.” In February, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair warned that
cyber activity is occurring on an unprecedented scale with extraordinary sophistication ,” and concluded that
America’s digital infrastructure was “severely threatened.” Blair’s predecessor, Michael McConnell, said last year that “a coordinated attack from
“malicious
a remote location by a small group on our electric grid, transportation network, and banking system could create damage as potentially great as a nuclear weapon over
time.” Richard Clarke agrees with these assessments of the cyber threat. He worries in particular that it
could lead to a “full-scale cyber war” with the “potential to
change the world military balance and thereby fundamentally alter political and economic relations.” Clarke was
George W. Bush’s adviser on cyber security and cyber terrorism for two years after a long career as a senior counterterrorism official during many administrations. His book focuses too much on a
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single aspect of the cyber problem, and sometimes it fails to carry its analysis to its proper conclusion; but it is nonetheless a good introduction to this esoteric but very serious national security
problem, and citizens should read it.
U.S.-Indo Economic relations key to cyber security
Juster 4
Under Secretary of Commerce United States Government
(Kenneth, “Cybersecurity: A Key to U.S.-India Trade” Under Secretary of Commerce United States Government at the India-U.S. Information Security
Summit 2004 October 12, 2004 New Delhi, India, http://www.bis.doc.gov/news/2004/cybersecurityspeech.htm)
Information security – also known as cybersecurity – is one of the keys to unlocking the full potential of the trade and technology relationship between the United States
and India. All levels of society today – from individuals, to companies, to governments
– rely on information technology and
information networks in their daily lives – to communicate, to manage activities, to transact business, and to
provide essential services to the public. As commerce between the United States and India continues to
expand, consumers and corporations will seek to ensure that their personal information and business
proprietary data are secure, and that information services are reliable and protected. Without an adequate level of security, we
run the risk of backlash among consumers and loss of confidence among business people, which could severely limit progress in our trade and technology relationship. This conference provides an
ideal venue to consider these issues and focus on best practices for improving cybersecurity policies in the public and private sectors. I want to thank the two principal sponsors who have organized
this conference – the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM) and the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA). In addition, I would like to recognize the
support provided by the various ministries and departments of the Indian and U.S. governments that are participating in this conference. I might add that I am particularly pleased to be sharing the
podium this afternoon with Minister Sibal. His brother, former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal, joined me in November 2002 in launching the U.S.-India High Technology Cooperation Group,
which has played an important role in promoting bilateral trade and, more broadly, U.S.-Indian relations. It augurs well for our success that Kanwal’s brother Kapil is now also a joint venture
partner in this collaboration. I would like to begin this afternoon by addressing the relationship between international trade and security. I will then focus on the critical of role of cybersecurity in
the U.S.-India trade and technology relationship, on our joint efforts to enhance cybersecurity, and on the importance of working in partnership with private industry to develop and implement
cybersecurity policies and practices. International Trade and Security As Under Secretary of Commerce in the U.S. Government, I oversee the Bureau of Industry and Security. As our name suggests,
we are responsible for issues where business and security intersect. These include strategic trade controls, imports and foreign acquisitions that affect U.S. security, and industry compliance with
international arms control agreements. One of the basic truths that I have learned in managing these issues is that international trade can only flourish if it is built on a solid foundation of security.
Indeed, in today’s world, trade and security are more closely intertwined than ever before. While globalization has brought increased trade and economic interaction, which have contributed to
economic growth and the generation of wealth, it has also presented new threats and new risks. Many of the forces that drive globalization and facilitate commerce – such as our globally integrated
information and communication networks, transportation systems, and financial networks – can also be used by criminals and terrorists to threaten our security and our economic well being. That
is why trade and security must be pursued in tandem; they are and must be seen as complementary rather than competing mandates. The U.S.-India High Technology Cooperation Group It is this
principle – security as the foundation for trade – that drives the growing high-technology relationship between the United States and India. As the United States and India expand economic
interaction, each partner must have confidence that the other will protect the privacy of personal and financial data, protect the rights of intellectual property holders, and not permit the diversion of
sensitive goods and technologies to unauthorized destinations or inappropriate users. If these security concerns are properly addressed, then I firmly believe that we will continue to see an upward
trajectory in our trade and technology relationship. It is with this premise in mind that, in November 2002, our two governments, through then-Foreign Secretary Sibal and myself, formed the U.S.India High Technology Cooperation Group – or the HTCG. This Group provides a forum for our governments to discuss strategic trade and security issues as well as trade facilitation measures. In
the area of strategic trade, we are working to strengthen national export control systems while also reviewing U.S. export licensing processes and policies, so as to grant India expanded access to
sophisticated U.S. technologies, consistent with our laws and international commitments. At the same time, we are seeking to create the appropriate economic environment for facilitating hightechnology trade by identifying and lowering tariff and non-tariff barriers in India to such trade. The HTCG works in partnership with each country’s private sector, which is in the best position to
identify obstacles to high-technology commerce and propose specific policy changes. Our focus to date has been on information technology, life sciences, nanotechnology, and defense technology.
Indeed, the idea for this conference on information security originated last November in Bangalore, at the time of our second private sector forum under the auspices of the High Technology
Cooperation Group. This conference is, in effect, our third HTCG private sector forum, and Foreign Secretary Saran, my current HTCG co-chair, and I both eagerly await the policy recommendations
that will come out of your discussions. It is important to note that, since the HTCG was established, high-technology trade between the United States and India, including licensed trade, has grown
substantially. For example, in our fiscal year 2002, which ran from October 2001 through September 2002, the U.S. Government approved 423 license applications for dual-use exports to India,
valued at almost $27 million. We have just completed fiscal year 2004, and in the last two years since we established the High Technology Cooperation Group, we have seen these numbers increase
dramatically. Indeed, for fiscal year 2004, we received more than twice as many license applications as in 2002, and our approval rate jumped from 84 percent to 90 percent. Thus, we approved 912
applications, and the overall value of licensed dual-use exports from the United States to India exceeded $90 million. This is more than triple the value of such exports just two years earlier. Clearly,
the establishment of the High Technology Cooperation Group has begun the process of building confidence between our two countries for increased trade in sophisticated dual-use goods and
technologies, as we work together to enhance security. The Next Steps in Strategic Partnership Initiative At the same time, however, we realized that we needed to develop another process in order
to address the broader strategic relationship between the United States and India, including in some of the most sensitive areas for potential cooperation. That is why, in January of this year,
President Bush and then-Prime Minister Vajpayee agreed to a strategic framework to expand cooperation in four specific areas important to both countries: high-technology trade, civilian space
programs, civilian nuclear activities, and missile defense. This strategic framework is known as the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership – or NSSP for short. It is designed to progress through a series
of reciprocal steps that build on each other. It responds to India’s desire for increased access to U.S. technology for peaceful purposes by liberalizing trade in such technology in a manner that is
consistent with U.S. nonproliferation laws and obligations, and does not contribute to India’s programs for nuclear weapons and their means of delivery. The NSSP is grounded in the realization
that what unites us is stronger than what divides us. It acknowledges India’s role as a major power, while appreciating that it takes time to build a lasting strategic partnership. It sets up a process to
create and build upon successes, while establishing habits of cooperation that extend deep into the governmental fabric in both countries. The September 21 meeting between President Bush and
Prime Minister Singh celebrated the completion of the first phase of the NSSP. This included the implementation of measures to address proliferation issues and to ensure that U.S.-origin goods and
technologies are used in accordance with U.S. export control requirements. These measures allowed the United States to make modifications to U.S. export licensing policies that will foster
increased cooperation in commercial space programs and permit certain exports to power plants at safeguarded nuclear facilities. The specific modifications were as follows: We removed the Indian
Space Research Organization (ISRO) Headquarters in Bangalore from the Department of Commerce Entity List, which will permit many dual-use items to be exported to ISRO Headquarters
without an export license. We removed licensing requirements for low-level dual-use items (known as EAR99 and 999 items) exported to ISRO subordinate entities that are on the Entity List. And
we will now apply a “presumption of approval” policy to all dual-use items not controlled by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) if intended for export to the “balance-of-plant” portion of an Indian
nuclear facility subject to International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. We believe that conclusion of Phase One will lead to significant economic benefits for both countries. In fact, these
licensing modifications are expected to reduce the number of applications submitted for exports to ISRO subordinate entities by approximately 80 percent, and reduce the total number of
applications for all dual-use exports to India by approximately 20 to 25 percent. Equally important, the NSSP is designed to send a strong signal to the publics of both countries that our two
governments are committed to moving forward through joint activity. Indeed, the United States and India realize that a genuine strategic partnership requires a strong commercial underpinning
that builds trust and positive relationships throughout both societies. That is why the NSSP is combined with engagement with the private sector through the U.S.-India Economic Dialogue and the
High Technology Cooperation Group, fora which together address a broad array of trade, economic, and security issues. The Role of Cybersecurity in U.S.-India Trade and Technology Relationship
One of the important components for the expanding trade and technology relationship between the United
States and India is cybersecurity. Cybersecurity involves the protection of information networks and
computing assets. This includes (i)protecting sensitive information from unauthorized disclosure or
interception, (ii)safeguarding the accuracy and completeness of information and software, and (iii)
ensuring that information and vital services are available to users when required. Many observers call the
era in which we live the “Information Age” because our economies and our security are dependent on information
technology. At the core of this global digital economy is the Internet, which is composed of millions of interconnected computer
networks that power today’s marketplace. Businesses and consumers use the Internet to gather information, to purchase goods and services, and to handle financial
transactions. Indeed, the ubiquity of the Internet has forced companies to reconsider business models, adopt new technologies, and seek efficiencies by leveraging their
use of the Internet. Governments
also rely on information technology and the information infrastructure to facilitate the
Information Age has brought innovation, economic growth, and a higher quality of life, it has also
spawned new and unique vulnerabilities. Computer systems and networks create new avenues for malicious
delivery of essential services to the public. While the
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actors – ranging from hackers and common criminals to foreign
intelligence agencies and international terrorists – who can do damage to all
are
of us. In an age when entire industries – such as telecommunications, banking and finance, transportation, and energy – rely on information technology, we
(CONTINUED)
now vulnerable to cyber attacks and cyber terrorism, including viruses, malicious code, denial of services attacks, and
identity theft. In fact, while a cyber attack would not, of course, be considered a weapon of mass destruction, it can be thought of as a weapon of mass disruption. One
person with relatively little training, inexpensive equipment, and access to the Internet has the potential to
disable an entire network or infrastructure. The financial and other costs related to such attacks are enormous. Corporations are on the front
lines of the Information Age, and they routinely face the threat of cyber attack. According to a survey released in September of this year of over 8,000 information
security professionals in 62 countries that was conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers and CIO magazine, 69 percent of the respondents reported that their organizations
had experienced downtime related to security breaches, with 37 percent reporting downtime of more than four hours. About 28 percent of the respondents reported
damages from such security breaches, with 5 percent reporting damages of more than $500,000. While hackers had perpetrated the bulk of the attacks, the survey found
that current employees had caused 28 percent of the breaches and former employees had been responsible for 21 percent of the breaches. The U.S. Government
recognizes the threat of these vulnerabilities to our economy and security, and has developed a national strategy to address them. In February 2003, the Bush
Administration released its National Strategy to Secure Cyberspace, which seeks to marshal government and private sector resources to prevent cyber attacks on
America’s critical infrastructures, reduce national vulnerability to such attacks, and minimize damage and recovery time from attacks that do occur. The
Administration identified five national priority areas for our government’s attention: first, a national
cybersecurity response system; second, a national cyberspace security threat and vulnerability reduction
program; third, a national cyberspace security awareness and training program; fourth, securing
government’s cyberspace; and fifth, national security and international cyberspace security cooperation.
This conference provides a valuable opportunity to focus particular attention on the last priority – the need
for international cooperation. Such cooperation is essential because there are no boundaries in cyberspace.
The vulnerabilities of the Information Age transcend national borders. Our information and communications infrastructures are
converging into a seamless global network. This means that, as we transmit proprietary business data, sensitive personal information, and protected intellectual property
back and forth between our countries, it is critical that we work together to coordinate and implement cybersecurity strategies and policies. This is essential for the
growth of the global digital economy U.S.-India Initiatives on Cybersecurity The
United States welcomes India as a vital partner in
addressing such global cybersecurity issues. Our two economies are becoming increasingly interconnected
with the growth of computer software development in both countries, as well as the growing trend in utilizing information technology-related services in each other’s
country. According to NASSCOM, India’s
information technology sector generated $12.5 billion in exports during the
past fiscal year. Many of these services are provided to U.S. firms and consumers. And the United States
clearly provides information technology services to India. For instance, a significant portion of the $3.3 billion in U.S. service exports to
India in 2002 was related to services involving information technology. As these trends continue, the United States and India must work together to ensure a secure
environment for information exchanges, commercial transactions, and software development. In
light of our growing interdependence in
information technology, President Bush and then-Prime Minister Vajpayee agreed in November 2001 to establish the U.S.-India
Cyberterrorism Initiative. Since that time, our two governments have worked closely to address cybersecurity issues. In April 2002, the two governments
convened a meeting in New Delhi of the U.S.-India Cybersecurity Forum, and discussed ways to better coordinate joint cybersecurity activities regarding standards, legal
and law enforcement issues, defense, and infrastructure protection. Through this framework, the United States seeks to work with India to develop appropriate
standards for cybersecurity and to strengthen national laws and enforcement capabilities. While we favor a regulatory approach that is not excessive or burdensome on
legitimate businesses and consumers, we also believe
it is important that national laws on cyber crime be harmonized, so
that hackers and others do not move from country to country in search of lax enforcement and non-existent
penalties. For that reason, we believe that the Council of Europe’s Convention on Cybercrime provides a useful model to follow, as it sets forth principles for
strengthening national laws concerning cyber crimes and encouraging international cooperation on the investigation of such crimes. We urge India’s adherence to the
principles in this Convention. We also hope
that our two governments can establish 24/7 watch and warning capabilities
in order to help prevent and, if necessary, recover from incidents in which security is compromised. We
anticipate that these and other topics will be open for discussion when we host the next meeting of the U.S.-India Cybersecurity Forum in November in Washington, D.C.
The Public-Private Partnership Governments, of course, can only do so much, because so many of our information systems and networks are owned and operated by the
private sector. Accordingly, the cornerstone of our national cybersecurity strategy, as well as our cybersecurity initiatives with India, is an effective partnership with
industry. After all, industry is in the best position to identify threats and vulnerabilities, articulate the need for security and protection of assets, and share ideas and best
practices for the development of cybersecurity technologies, policies, and programs. This conference is a significant and concrete step toward building an effective
public-private partnership. I am confident that by bringing together representatives from government and industry in both countries to discuss best practices, we
can
increase our cooperation in fighting cyber crime and cyber terrorism, and ensure the security of our
information infrastructure. Let me therefore share with you briefly my views on some of the steps that industry can take to address the global challenges
of cybersecurity – steps that hopefully will be relevant to your discussions during this conference. Promote Global Culture of Security First, government and
industry must encourage the adoption of a global culture of security by working to institutionalize a
proactive commitment to information security. What are the most important elements of such a commitment? Certainly, technology is one key element.
Organizations must ensure that they have implemented anti-virus software, firewalls, strong encryption and authentication, patch management, and tools for intrusion detection. And these tools
must be kept up to date and properly configured. But technology is not the only element. Too often, the assumption is made that improving cybersecurity and fighting cyber crime can be done with
technology alone. That assumption is wrong. Just as the best alarm system will not protect a building if the alarm code is compromised, a network will not be secure if passwords are given out freely
or individuals responsible for handing sensitive data are not properly trained or screened. Issues of good process and good people, therefore, are every bit as important as having the right
technology. Indeed, it is critical at every stage that each of us as individuals take responsibility for cybersecurity. As consumers, we must be willing to take a few practical steps to safeguard our
experience online. As employees, we must take training and follow company procedures. And as managers, we must be willing to invest in the development of comprehensive security measures and
continuously educate all employees in them. Some have called these practices sensible “cyber hygiene.” With cyber hygiene practices in place, consumers, employees, and companies can more
effectively use existing technologies. Governments can also play a part by encouraging cyber hygiene and cyber ethics among its citizens from an early age. Once we get the “people-processtechnology” equation right, we will have gone a long way to implementing effective cybersecurity practices across organizations. Be Aware of “External” Security Efforts In addition to broadly
encouraging a culture of security, governmental and private organizations must recognize that security encompasses more than just our own “internal” efforts. We must also focus on “external”
security issues, such as the way in which suppliers, customers, and corporate partners protect their systems, supply chains, and data. Where necessary, an organization must work with partners to
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implement or improve cybersecurity policies and practices. We are only as secure as the weakest link in our information network. Incorporate Security into All Aspects of Technology Security should
also be incorporated into all aspects of information and communications technology as a routine matter. You would not purchase a car, and then separately buy the brakes or the steering wheel.
Well, the same should be the case with cybersecurity. Ideally, we should not have to purchase security measures as an add-on to our technology. Instead, they should be incorporated into that
(CONTINUED)
technology. Indeed, security should be included in the technical and procedural aspects of developing and fielding systems and networks. Organizations must also put resources into information
security research. In the end, it is cheaper and easier to design, develop, implement, and maintain cybersecurity programs than it is to lose time, money, productivity, and possibly customers in
trying to make adjustments after incidents or security breaches occur. Cooperate with Law Enforcement Finally, the private sector must cooperate with law enforcement, which is the key to holding
cyber criminals accountable for their actions. Some businesses and individuals are not aware that cyber theft, intrusions, and compromises can be reported to law enforcement and subsequently
prosecuted. Others may believe that information security compromises are routine and cannot be avoided. Organizations should educate their employees about the dangers of cyber crimes and
incidents, and must cooperate with law enforcement in prosecuting cyber criminals. In addition, where laws criminalizing the misuse of information technologies do not exist or are not up to date,
governments should be encouraged to adopt or modernize such laws. A comprehensive legal framework and effective enforcement capability are necessary elements of a nation’s strategy to secure
the
United States and India have charted a robust and unequivocal course of strategic partnership that will
benefit both countries. The private sector has an important role in translating these government initiatives into concrete joint activity at the business-tocyberspace. Conclusion With the conclusion of Phase One of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership initiative and our ongoing dialogue under the High Technology Cooperation Group,
business and people-to-people levels. While government can create the appropriate environment for commercial activity, it is up to private businesses, organizations,
and individuals in both countries to reach out and build relationships. As
part of this process, to truly unlock the potential of the
U.S.-India trade and technology relationship, our governments and publics must work as partners to secure the
information networks, systems, and infrastructures that drive the economic activity between our two countries. Thank you.
H1-Bs are necessary to encourage brain circulation for citizen and commercial
networks
Davis 10
Ted, School of Public Policy @ George Mason Univeristy, *first part of a dissertation (draft)
(“Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management Migration: A World in Motion A Multinational Conference on Migration and Migration Policy”,
February 18-20, 2010, https://www.appam.org/conferences/international/maastricht2010/sessions/downloads/389.1.pdf)
The information technology services sector is the hottest flashpoint in the bilateral relationship. Many of
the Indians who flowed into U.S. graduate education in natural sciences and engineering in the 1970s and 1980s were snapped up by
American industry. They had little incentive to return home, thanks to the so-called ―license Raj,‖ which stifled
entrepreneurial energy, and the U.S. immigration regime accommodated them, albeit often with much bureaucratic sleight-of-hand. The Indian presence in
Silicon Valley and elsewhere in the U.S. high-technology industry grew rapidly. A noticeable proportion of
new ventures in the U.S. were founded by Indian-born high-tech entrepreneurs (Hart, Acs, and Tracy 2009). Some Indians
were also quite successful in climbing the career ladder within large multinational IT firms (Saxenian 2006). The technology boom of the 1990s
increased the dependence of the U.S. high-technology industry on Indian talent. In addition to recruiting Indian students
out of U.S. universities, the industry brought trained professionals from India to the U.S. under the H-1B visa
program. And when that supply grew tight, it advocated and won a temporary tripling of the size of that program in 1998. Although the H-1B visa covers a wide
range of occupations and professions, 18 Indian computer professionals dominated this category from the mid-1990s on (Lowell and Martin 2008). The feedback
effect to India was powerful. A new industry emerged there in which Indians who had migrated to the
U.S. played a key role. Multinational firms, such as Microsoft, IBM, and Intel, opened research and development centers
in India, often with former expatriates as their leaders. More important, a network of IT contractors and
subcontractors grew up to support clients in Silicon Valley and elsewhere in the U.S. Spurred by the Y2K ―bug,‖ the
Indian information technology sector grew at a compounded annual rate of 55% from 1992 to 2000 (Ministry of
External Affairs 2000). In this decade, firms such as Wipro, Infosys, and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) have become large and powerful players in the global IT
industry. These
firms now account for a large fraction of H-1B visas (and, increasingly, L-1 visas as well).
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Those connections are key to stronger U.S.-Indo economic relations
Summers 10
Lawrence , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council.
(““The U.S.-India Economic Relationship in the 21st Century” Remarks to the U.S.-India Business Council, June 2, 2010,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/nec/speeches/us-india-economic-relationship)
If you write or study the history of American foreign policy in the nineteenth century or the the twentieth century, there is surely a role for the U.S. relationship with
India. But I think, in
being honest, in neither the history of American foreign policy nor the history of India’s international
economic relations would our partnership be one of the most important elements in nineteenth- and
twentieth-century foreign policy. It is my confident expectation, and more importantly it is the confident expectation of the government of the United
States, that that will be very different in the twenty-first century. Two of the world’s largest economies. The world’s two largest
democracies. Two large, independent, vibrant, democratic nations. Nations committed to international cooperation in a shrinking
world have every reason to affiliate and to partner closely. The world that the United States wants to see,
the world that India want to see, is a world of increasing integrations, is a world of increasing prosperity, is
a world of tolerance, is a world at peace, is a world where prosperity comes from the bottom up, is a world
where respect for individuals is a paramount value. That is why I expect our partnership to be so crucial to the history of the next generation
and to the next century. That will be in part a matter of visits from heads of state, and the frequency of visits between heads of state has
risen in the last decade. It will be in part a matter of increasing connections between public officials of the kind that are now so
frequently. It seems like I see my friend Montek Ahluwalia somewhere every two or three months. That would not once have been the case. But it is even more
profoundly – and it reflects what we in governments do – a matter of the connections of ordinary citizens.
The students who come from India to the United States and a much greater number of students from the United States who should go to
India. One of the things I always said when I was president of Harvard was that many, many more of our students should be studying in India, given what the twentyfirst century was going to be. It
is also a matter of commercial connection. Commercial connection because we are a
large market for India, and India is a large market for us. Commercial connection because increasingly
what is going to be important is less the flow of products or even the flow of capital, but the flow of ideas,
and we are two nations who are major producers of ideas. Commercial connection because ultimately the
flow of goods, the flow of ideas, the flow of prosperity depends upon a sense of comfort and trust, and that
is only built through interaction. I believe I first spoke at one of the meetings of the U.S.-India Business Council only about halfway through your
history in the early 1990s, and you have seen enormous progress. But I am confident that the work of this organization and the connection between our
two nations is going to be far closer and far more consequential over the next generation than ever before.
The threat of cyber warfare is real- countries are increasing attacks against the USevery attack increases the risk of major power war
Habiger 10 (Eugene, Retired Air Force General, “ CYBERWARFARE AND CYBERTERRORISM: THE NEED FOR A
NEW U.S. STRATEGIC APPROACH,” The Cyber Security Institute, February 1)
However, there are reasons to believe that what is going on now amounts to a fundamental shift as opposed to business as
usual. Today’s network exploitation or information operation trespasses possess a number of characteristics that suggest
that the line between espionage and conflict has been, or is close to being, crossed. (What that suggests for the proper
response is a different matter.) First, the number of cyberattacks we are facing is growing significantly. Andrew Palowitch,
a former CIA official now consulting with the US Strategic Command (STRATCOM), which oversees the Defense
Department’s Joint Task Force‐Global Network Operations, recently told a meeting of experts that the Defense
Department has experienced almost 80,000 computer attacks, and some number of these assaults have actually “reduced”
the military’s “operational capabilities.”20 Second, the nature of these attacks is starting to shift from penetration
attempts aimed at gathering intelligence (cyber spying) to offensive efforts aimed at taking down systems (cyberattacks).
Palowitch put this in stark terms last November, “We are currently in a cyberwar and war is going on today.”21 Third,
these recent attacks need to be taken in a broader strategic context. Both Russia and China have stepped up their offensive
efforts and taken a much more aggressive cyberwarfare posture. The Chinese have developed an openly discussed
cyberwar strategy aimed at achieving electronic dominance over the U.S. and its allies by 2050. In 2007 the Department of
Defense reported that for the first time China has developed first strike viruses, marking a major shift from prior
investments in defensive measures.22 And in the intervening period China has launched a series of offensive cyber
operations against U.S. government and private sector networks and infrastructure. In 2007, Gen. James Cartwright, the
former head of STRATCOM and now the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the US‐China Economic and
Security Review Commission that China’s ability to launch “denial of service” attacks to overwhelm an IT system is of
particular concern. 23 Russia also has already begun to wage offensive cyberwar. At the outset of the recent hostilities with
Georgia, Russian assets launched a series of cyberattacks against the Georgian government and its critical infrastructure
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(CONTINUED)
systems, including media, banking and transportation sites.24 In 2007, cyberattacks that many experts attribute, directly
or indirectly, to Russia shut down the Estonia government’s IT systems. Fourth, the current geopolitical context must also
be factored into any effort to gauge the degree of threat of cyberwar. The start of the new Obama Administration has
begun to help reduce tensions between the United States and other nations. And, the new administration has taken initial
steps to improve bilateral relations specifically with both China and Russia. However, it must be said that over the last few
years the posture of both the Chinese and Russian governments toward America has clearly become more assertive, and at
times even aggressive. Some commentators have talked about the prospects of a cyber Pearl Harbor, and the pattern of
Chinese and Russian behavior to date gives reason for concern along these lines: both nations have offensive cyberwarfare
strategies in place; both nations have taken the cyber equivalent of building up their forces; both nations now regularly probe our cyber defenses
looking for gaps to be exploited; both nations have begun taking actions that cross the line from cyberespionage to cyberaggression; and, our bilateral
relations with both nations are increasingly fractious and complicated by areas of marked, direct competition. Clearly, there a sharp differences between
current U.S. relations with these two nations and relations between the US and Japan just prior to World War II. However, from a strategic defense
perspective, there are enough warning signs to warrant preparation. In addition to the threat of cyberwar, the limited resources required to
carry out even a large scale cyberattack also makes likely the potential for a significant cyberterror attack against the
United States. However, the lack of a long list of specific incidences of cyberterrorism should provide no comfort. There is
strong evidence to suggest that al Qaeda has the ability to conduct cyberterror attacks against the United States and its
allies. Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations are extremely active in cyberspace, using these technologies to communicate among themselves and
others, carry out logistics, recruit members, and wage information warfare. For example, al Qaeda leaders used email to communicate with the 9‐11
terrorists and the 9‐11 terrorists used the Internet to make travel plans and book flights. Osama bin Laden and other al Qaeda members routinely post
videos and other messages to online sites to communicate. Moreover, there is evidence of efforts that al Qaeda and other terrorist
organizations are actively developing cyberterrorism capabilities and seeking to carry out cyberterrorist attacks. For
example, the Washington Post has reported that “U.S. investigators have found evidence in the logs that mark a browser's
path through the Internet that al Qaeda operators spent time on sites that offer software and programming instructions
for the digital switches that run power, water, transport and communications grids. In some interrogations . . . al Qaeda
prisoners have described intentions, in general terms, to use those tools.”25 Similarly, a 2002 CIA report on the
cyberterror threat to a member of the Senate stated that al Qaeda and Hezbollah have become "more adept at using the
internet and computer technologies.”26 The FBI has issued bulletins stating that, “U. S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies have
received indications that Al Qaeda members have sought information on Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems available on
multiple SCADA‐related web sites.”27 In addition a number of jihadist websites, such as 7hj.7hj.com, teach computer attack and hacking skills in the
service of Islam.28 While al Qaeda may lack the cyber‐attack capability of nations like Russia and China, there is every reason to believe its operatives,
and those of its ilk, are as capable as the cyber criminals and hackers who routinely effect great harm on the world’s digital infrastructure generally and
American assets specifically. In fact, perhaps, the most troubling indication of the level of the cyberterrorist threat is the
countless, serious non‐terrorist cyberattacks routinely carried out by criminals, hackers, disgruntled insiders,
crime syndicates and the like. If run‐of‐the‐mill criminals and hackers can threaten powergrids, hack vital military
networks, steal vast sums of money, take down a city’s of traffic lights, compromise the Federal Aviation Administration’s
air traffic control systems, among other attacks, it is overwhelmingly likely that terrorists can carry out similar, if
not more malicious attacks. Moreover, even if the world’s terrorists are unable to breed these skills, they can certainly buy them. There are
untold numbers of cybermercenaries around the world—sophisticated hackers with advanced training who would be willing to offer their services for the
right price. Finally, given the nature of our understanding of cyber threats, there is always the possibility that we have already been the victim or a
cyberterrorist attack, or such an attack has already been set but not yet effectuated, and we don’t know it yet. Instead, a
well‐designed
cyberattack has the capacity cause widespread chaos, sow societal unrest, undermine national governments,
spread paralyzing fear and anxiety, and create a state of utter turmoil, all without taking a single life. A
sophisticated cyberattack could throw a nation’s banking and finance system into chaos causing markets to
crash, prompting runs on banks, degrading confidence in markets, perhaps even putting the nation’s currency
in play and making the government look helpless and hapless. In today’s difficult economy, imagine how
Americans would react if vast sums of money were taken from their accounts and their supporting financial
records were destroyed. A truly nefarious cyberattacker could carry out an attack in such a way (akin to Robin
Hood) as to engender populist support and deepen rifts within our society, thereby making efforts to restore the system all the
more difficult. A modestly advanced enemy could use a cyberattack to shut down (if not physically damage) one or more regional power grids. An entire
region could be cast into total darkness, power‐dependent systems could be shutdown. An attack on one or more regional power grids could also cause
cascading effects that could jeopardize our entire national grid. When word leaks that the blackout was caused by a cyberattack, the specter of a foreign
enemy capable of sending the entire nation into darkness would only increase the fear, turmoil and unrest. While the finance and energy sectors are
considered prime targets for a cyberattack, an attack on any of the 17 delineated critical infrastructure sectors could have a major impact on the United
States. For example, our healthcare system is already technologically driven and the Obama Administration’s e‐health efforts will only increase that
dependency. A cyberattack on the U.S. e‐health infrastructure could send our healthcare system into chaos and put countless
of lives at risk. Imagine if emergency room physicians and surgeons were suddenly no longer able to access vital patient
information. A cyberattack on our nation’s water systems could likewise cause widespread disruption. An attack on the
control systems for one or more dams could put entire communities at risk of being inundated, and could create ripple
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(CONTINUED)
effects across the water, agriculture, and energy sectors. Similar water control system attacks could be used to at least temporarily deny water to
otherwise arid regions, impacting everything from the quality of life in these areas to agriculture. In 2007, the U.S. Cyber Consequences Unit determined
that the destruction from a single wave of cyberattacks on critical infrastructures could exceed $700 billion, which would be the rough equivalent of 50
Katrina‐esque hurricanes hitting the United States all at the same time.29 Similarly, one IT security source has estimated that the impact of a single
day cyberwar attack that focused on and disrupted U.S. credit and debit card transactions would be approximately $35
billion.30 Another way to gauge the potential for harm is in comparison to other similar noncyberattack infrastructure
failures. For example, the August 2003 regional power grid blackout is estimated to have cost the U.S. economy up to $10
billion, or roughly .1 percent of the nation’s GDP. 31 That said, a cyberattack of the exact same magnitude would most
certainly have a much larger impact. The origin of the 2003 blackout was almost immediately disclosed as an atypical
system failure having nothing to do with terrorism. This made the event both less threatening and likely a single time
occurrence. Had it been disclosed that the event was the result of an attack that could readily be repeated the impacts
would likely have grown substantially, if not exponentially. Additionally, a cyberattack could also be used to disrupt our
nation’s defenses or distract our national leaders in advance of a more traditional conventional or strategic attack. Many
military leaders actually believe that such a disruptive cyber pre‐offensive is the most effective use of offensive cyber capabilities. This is, in fact, the way
Russia utilized cyberattackers—whether government assets, governmentdirected/ coordinated assets, or allied cyber irregulars—in advance of the
invasion of Georgia. Widespread distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks were launched on the Georgian governments IT systems. Roughly a day
later Russian armor rolled into Georgian territory. The cyberattacks were used to prepare the battlefield; they denied the Georgian government a critical
communications tool isolating it from its citizens and degrading its command and control capabilities precisely at the time of attack. In this way, these
attacks were the functional equivalent of conventional air and/or missile strikes on a nation’s communications infrastructure.32 One interesting element
of the Georgian cyberattacks has been generally overlooked: On July 20th, weeks before the August cyberattack, the website of Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili was overwhelmed by a more narrowly focused, but technologically similar DDOS attack.33 This should be particularly chilling to
American national security experts as our systems undergo the same sorts of focused, probing attacks on a constant basis. The ability of an enemy to use
a cyberattack to counter our offensive capabilities or soften our defenses for a wider offensive against the United States is much more than mere
speculation. In fact, in Iraq it is already happening. Iraq insurgents are now using off‐the‐shelf software (costing just $26) to hack U.S. drones (costing
$4.5 million each), allowing them to intercept the video feed from these drones.34 By hacking these drones the insurgents have succeeded
in greatly reducing one of our most valuable sources of real‐time intelligence and situational awareness. If our enemies in
Iraq are capable of such an effective cyberattack against one of our more sophisticated systems, consider what a more
technologically advanced enemy could do. At the strategic level, in 2008, as the United States Central Command was
leading wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan, a cyber intruder compromised the security of the Command and sat within its
IT systems, monitoring everything the Command was doing. 35 This time the attacker simply gathered vast amounts of
intelligence. However, it is clear that the attacker could have used this access to wage cyberwar—altering information, disrupting
the flow of information, destroying information, taking down systems—against the United States forces already at war. Similarly, during 2003 as the
United States prepared for and began the War in Iraq, the IT networks of the Department of Defense were hacked 294 times.36 By August of 2004, with
America at war, these ongoing attacks compelled then‐Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz to write in a memo that, "Recent exploits have
reduced operational capabilities on our networks."37 This wasn’t the first time that our national security IT infrastructure was penetrated immediately in
advance of a U.S. military option.38 In February of 1998 the Solar Sunrise attacks systematically compromised a series of Department of Defense
networks. What is often overlooked is that these attacks occurred during the ramp up period ahead of potential military action against Iraq. The attackers
were able to obtain vast amounts of sensitive information—information that would have certainly been of value to an enemy’s military leaders. There is
no way to prove that these actions were purposefully launched with the specific intent to distract American military assets or degrade our capabilities.
However, such ambiguities—the inability to specifically attribute actions and motives to actors—are the very nature of cyberspace. Perhaps, these
repeated patterns of behavior were mere coincidence, or perhaps they weren’t. The potential that an enemy might use a cyberattack to
soften physical defenses, increase the gravity of harms from kinetic attacks, or both, significantly increases the potential
harms from a cyberattack. Consider the gravity of the threat and risk if an enemy, rightly or wrongly, believed that it could
use a cyberattack to degrade our strategic weapons capabilities. Such an enemy might be convinced that it could win a
war—conventional or even nuclear—against the United States. The effect of this would be to undermine our
deterrence‐based defenses, making us significantly more at risk of a major war.
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That risks multiple scenarios for accidental nuclear war
Fritz 09 (A study commissioned by the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament
Hacking Nuclear Command and Control Jason Fritz BS (St. Cloud), July 2009)
Direct control of launch
The US uses the two-man rule to achieve a higher level of security in nuclear affairs. Under this rule two authorized
personnel must be present and in agreement during critical stages of nuclear command and control. The President must
jointly issue a launch order with the Secretary of Defense; Minuteman missile operators must agree that the launch order
is valid; and on a submarine, both the commanding officer and executive officer must agree that the order to launch is
valid. In the US, in order to execute a nuclear launch, an Emergency Action Message (EAM) is needed. This is a
preformatted message that directs nuclear forces to execute a specific attack. The contents of an EAM change daily and
consist of a complex code read by a human voice. Regular monitoring by shortwave listeners and videos posted to
YouTube provide insight into how these work. These are issued from the NMCC, or in the event of destruction, from the
designated hierarchy of command and control centres. Once a command centre has confirmed the EAM, using the twoman rule, the Permissive Action Link (PAL) codes are entered to arm the weapons and the message is sent out. These
messages are sent in digital format via the secure Automatic Digital Network and then relayed to aircraft via singlesideband radio transmitters of the High Frequency Global Communications System, and, at least in the past, sent to
nuclear capable submarines via Very Low Frequency (Greenemeier 2008, Hardisty 1985). The technical details of VLF
submarine communication methods can be found online, including PC-based VLF reception. Some reports have noted a
Pentagon review, which showed a potential “electronic back door into the US Navy’s system for broadcasting nuclear
launch orders to Trident submarines” (Peterson 2004). The investigation showed that cyber terrorists could potentially
infiltrate this network and insert false orders for launch. The investigation led to “elaborate new instructions for
validating launch orders” (Blair 2003). Adding further to the concern of cyber terrorists seizing control over submarine
launched nuclear missiles; The Royal Navy announced in 2008 that it would be installing a Microsoft Windows operating
system on its nuclear submarines (Page 2008). The choice of operating system, apparently based on Windows XP, is not
as alarming as the advertising of such a system is. This may attract hackers and narrow the necessary
reconnaissance to learning its details and potential exploits. It is unlikely that the operating system would play a
direct role in the signal to launch, although this is far from certain. Knowledge of the operating system may lead to
the insertion of malicious code, which could be used to gain accelerating privileges, tracking, valuable
information, and deception that could subsequently be used to initiate a launch. Remember from Chapter 2 that
the UK’s nuclear submarines have the authority to launch if they believe the central command has been destroyed.
Attempts by cyber terrorists to create the illusion of a decapitating strike could also be used to engage faildeadly systems. Open source knowledge is scarce as to whether Russia continues to operate such a system.
However evidence suggests that they have in the past. Perimetr, also known as Dead Hand, was an automated system
set to launch a mass scale nuclear attack in the event of a decapitation strike against Soviet leadership and
military.
In a crisis, military officials would send a coded message to the bunkers, switching on the dead hand. If nearby groundlevel sensors detected a nuclear attack on Moscow, and if a break was detected in communications links with top military
commanders, the system would send low-frequency signals over underground antennas to special rockets. Flying high
over missile fields and other military sites, these rockets in turn would broadcast attack orders to missiles, bombers and,
via radio relays, submarines at sea. Contrary to some Western beliefs, Dr. Blair says, many of Russia's nuclear-armed
missiles in underground silos and on mobile launchers can be fired automatically. (Broad 1993)
Assuming such a system is still active, cyber terrorists would need to create a crisis situation in order to activate
Perimetr, and then fool it into believing a decapitating strike had taken place. While this is not an easy task, the
information age makes it easier. Cyber reconnaissance could help locate the machine and learn its inner workings.
This could be done by targeting the computers high of level official’s—anyone who has reportedly worked on such a
project, or individuals involved in military operations at underground facilities, such as those reported to be located at
Yamantau and Kosvinksy mountains in the central southern Urals (Rosenbaum 2007, Blair 2008)
Indirect Control of Launch
Cyber terrorists could cause incorrect information to be transmitted, received, or displayed at nuclear
command and control centres, or shut down these centres’ computer networks completely. In 1995, a Norwegian
scientific sounding rocket was mistaken by Russian early warning systems as a nuclear missile launched from a US
submarine. A radar operator used Krokus to notify a general on duty who decided to alert the highest levels. Kavkaz was
implemented, all three chegets activated, and the countdown for a nuclear decision began. It took eight minutes before the
missile was properly identified—a considerable amount of time considering the speed with which a nuclear response must
be decided upon (Aftergood 2000).
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(CONTINUED)
Creating a false signal in these early warning systems would be relatively easy using computer network
operations. The real difficulty would be gaining access to these systems as they are most likely on a closed network.
However, if they are transmitting wirelessly, that may provide an entry point, and information gained through
the internet may reveal the details, such as passwords and software, for gaining entrance to the closed network.
If access was obtained, a false alarm could be followed by something like a DDoS attack, so the operators believe an
attack may be imminent, yet they can no longer verify it. This could add pressure to the decision making process,
and if coordinated precisely, could appear as a first round EMP burst. Terrorist groups could also attempt to
launch a non-nuclear missile, such as the one used by Norway, in an attempt to fool the system. The number of
states who possess such technology is far greater than the number of states who possess nuclear weapons. Obtaining them
would be considerably easier, especially when enhancing operations through computer network operations. Combining
traditional terrorist methods with cyber techniques opens opportunities neither could accomplish on their own.
For example, radar stations might be more vulnerable to a computer attack, while satellites are more vulnerable
to jamming from a laser beam, thus together they deny dual phenomenology. Mapping communications
networks through cyber reconnaissance may expose weaknesses, and automated scanning devices created by
more experienced hackers can be readily found on the internet.
Intercepting or spoofing communications is a highly complex science. These systems are designed to protect against the
world’s most powerful and well funded militaries. Yet, there are recurring gaffes, and the very nature of asymmetric
warfare is to bypass complexities by finding simple loopholes. For example, commercially available software for voicemorphing could be used to capture voice commands within the command and control structure, cut these sound bytes into
phonemes, and splice it back together in order to issue false voice commands (Andersen 2001, Chapter 16). Spoofing could
also be used to escalate a volatile situation in the hopes of starting a nuclear war. “ [they cut off the paragraph] “In
June 1998, a group of international hackers calling themselves Milw0rm hacked the web site of India’s Bhabha Atomic
Research Center (BARC) and put up a spoofed web page showing a mushroom cloud and the text “If a nuclear war does
start, you will be the first to scream” (Denning 1999). Hacker web-page defacements like these are often derided by critics
of cyber terrorism as simply being a nuisance which causes no significant harm. However, web-page defacements are
becoming more common, and they point towards alarming possibilities in subversion. During the 2007 cyber attacks
against Estonia, a counterfeit letter of apology from Prime Minister Andrus Ansip was planted on his political party
website (Grant 2007). This took place amid the confusion of mass DDoS attacks, real world protests, and accusations
between governments.
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Contention 2: Solvency
H1B’s are key to return migration which brings expertise and social capital back to the
country—software boom proves
Ahmed & Wamsley 8
Amer, graduate student of the Center for Global Trade Analysis * a Research Assistant Professor and Director of the Center for Global Trade Analysis
(“THE LIBERALIZATION OF TEMPORARY MIGRATION:
INDIA’S STORY”, Feburary 2008, https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/3646.pdf)
Return migration has also been hailed as the cure for brain drain woes, by leading to a brain circulation
scenario, whereby the initial loss of skilled workers is mirrored by an influx of returning skilled migrant
workers. It has been argued that the returning migrant workers bring back higher productivities, experience, and
financial support which benefit India – transforming the brain drain into a gain. The mechanism by which the initial
outflow of workers – the brain drain – becomes a brain gain is illustrated in Figure 2.1. Balasubramanyam and Balasubramanyam (1997) argue that
migrants, who originally left in the 1960s and 1970s, played an important role in the establishment of the
Indian software sector upon their return. As evidence they point to a number of software companies
founded in Bangalore – including three of the most prominent firms, Wipro Limited, Infomart, and BPL
Systems – which were established by return migrant workers; concluding that it was this return migration,
and the subsequent brain gain, which provided much of the impetus for the rapid growth in India’s
software sector. 11 Anecdotal evidence suggests that remittances from the US into India in the GMig2 Data Base are too high, since the lions’
shares of remittances that go to South Asia are believed to come from unskilled workers in the Middle East. However, according to figures from the
Reserve Bank of India (2006), remittances from USA based Indian expatriates account for 44% of the total remittances received. The estimates
calculated from the GMig2 Database are thus in the ballpark. Sensitivity analyses will examine alternative remittance distributions by source
country. 12 The Gulf Cooperation Council comprises the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
10 Figure 2-1 Brain Circulation As a result of these potential benefits from return migration, the Indian Government
has developed programs aimed at Non-Resident Indians13 (NRI) and Persons of Indian Origin14 (PIO).
These programs include granting visa waivers and the facilitation of financial services, normally reserved
for Indian citizens. Overall engagement with potential return migrant workers and appeals to the
permanent migrants to participate in the development of India has become an integral part of government
policy in India. Currently there is very little return migration occurring, and it would be very easy to overestimate the
actual return migration rate to India. As Saxenian (2000) has noted, very few Indian expatriates come back to India permanently as return migrant
workers. Cervantes and Guellec (2002) support this by saying that in 2000 there were only 1500 return migrant workers while about thirty times
that number, leave every year. If government policies for temporary skilled migration, under any conceptual framework, are
to be successful the rate of return migration needs to be increased. A key assumption of Mode 4 liberalization is that
return migration will occur at a specific rate, since it is a temporary movement by design. Guest worker schemes
or mechanisms, such as the United States’ H1B system, would be most conducive to increasing return migration.
H1-B’s are where the biotech industry get’s its specialists
Dahms 3
A. Stephen Dahms, 2003, is executive director of the California State University System Biotechnology Program (CSUPERB); chair of the Workforce
Committee, Biotechnology Industry Organization; and a member of the ASBMB Education and Professional Development Committee “Foreign Scientists
Seen Essential to U.S. Biotechnology”, American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology (ASBMB), 2003
The scarcity of skilled technicians is seen by the biotechnology industry in the U.S. and Canada as one of its
most serious challenges. The success of this industry is dependent on the quality of its workforce, and the
skills and talents of highly trained people are recognized as one of the most vital and dynamic sources of
competitive advantage. The U.S. biotechnology industry workforce has been growing 14 to 17 percent
annually over the last six years and is now over 190,000 and conservatively estimated to reach 500,000 by
2012. Despite efforts by the industry to encourage U.S. institutions to increase the production of needed
specialists, a continual shortfall in the needed expertise requires access to foreign workers. Foreign workers
with unique skills that are scarce in the U.S. can get permission to stay in the U.S. for up to six years under
the H-1B classification, after which they can apply for permanent resident status. There are currently over
600,000 foreign workers in this category across all industries, and they are critical to the success and global
competitiveness of this nation. Of these H-1B visa holders, 46 percent are from India and 10 percent are from China, followed in
descending order by Canada, Philippines, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, U.K., Pakistan, and the Russian Federation. Our annual national surveys
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(CONTINUED)
have demonstrated that between 6 and 10 percent of the biotechnology workforce have H-1B visas. The
constant shortfall in specialized technical workers that has been experienced by the biotechnology industry
over the past six years has been partially alleviated by access to talented individuals from other nations.
However, the industry's need is sufficient to justify a 25 percent increase in H-1Bs in 2004. Biotechnology
industry H-1B visa holders are mainly in highly sought after areas such as analytical chemistry,
instrumentation specialization, organic synthesis, product safety and surveillance, clinical
research/biostatistics, bio/pharm quality, medicinal chemistry, product scale-up, bioinformatics and
applied genomics, computer science, cheminformatics, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics. Forty
percent of H-1B foreign workers are at the Ph.D. level, 35 percent M.S., 20 percent B.S., and 5 percent M.D. In comparison, the U.S. biotechnology
industry technical workforce is estimated to be 19 percent Ph.D., 17 percent M.S., 50 percent B.S., and 14 percent combined voc-ed/ community
college trained. These and other survey data by industry human resource groups clearly show that
the H-1B worker skills match the most pressing employment needs of the biotechnology
industry. The data demonstrate that maintaining a reasonably-sized H-1B cap is critical to the industry.
Although the national annual H-1B visa cap was raised from 115,000 to 195,000 in the 106th Congress via S. 2045, the cap has already been
exceeded. The increased cap remains in effect until 2003 and efforts are under way to ensure that it remains
high. The Third Annual National Survey of H-1Bs in the biotechnology industry found that 80 percent are from U.S. universities, and 85 percent of
those eventually get green cards. Companies now spend, on average, $10,200 in processing fees and legal expenses to obtain each green card, an
estimated cost to the industry of more than $150 million over the past 5 years. In the wake of the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks, debate has
been focused on more restrictions on foreign students, a development that would have a severe impact
upon the competitiveness of the U.S. biotechnology industry. Clearly, the H-1B route provides a temporary
solution to shortages in the national and domestic biotechnology labor pools, shortages mirroring the
inadequate production of appropriately trained U.S. nationals by U.S. institutions of higher learning. The
reality is that universities have inadequate resources for expanding the training pipeline, particularly in the specialized areas of the research phase
of company product development. Efforts should be directed toward influencing greater congressional and federal agency attention to these
important topics.
Circulation isn’t the norm—India represents a special case whereby migration can
boost domestic industry
Davis 10
Ted, School of Public Policy @ George Mason Univeristy, *first part of a dissertation (draft)
(“Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management Migration: A World in Motion A Multinational Conference on Migration and Migration Policy”,
February 18-20, 2010, https://www.appam.org/conferences/international/maastricht2010/sessions/downloads/389.1.pdf)
In 2008, India had the highest level of H-1B and L-1 admissions for high-skill employment (Monger and Barr 2009).
Their H-1B admissions were more than five times that of Canada, the second ranked country. They also had the third highest F-1 admissions for
advanced education and the third highest individuals accepted for legal permanent residence. According to the Ministry of External Affairs (2000),
the per capita income of Indians in the U.S. was $60,093 compared to the U.S. average of $38,885. About 300,000 work in Silicon Valley
technology firms and accounted for 15% of high-tech start-ups; their average salary was over $200,000; and there were about 700 Indian-owned
companies. Many Indians in the U.S. also advanced to high positions in U.S. companies, such as the CEO of Microchip
Technologies, the president of Bell Labs, and senior vice-president of Qualcomm.
Successful Indians in the U.S. also were
notable for the relations they maintained to India. These relationships brought attention to resources and
opportunities in India—leading many multinational firms to locate research and development centers in
India, including General Electric, CISCO, Sun Microsystems, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, and Oracle (Ministry of External Affairs 2000). The
information technology sector in India, in particular, had shown significant growth with a compounded
annual growth rate of 55 percent from 1992 to 2000. In 2008-2009 the revenue of the information technology and business
process outsourcing industry in India was estimated at US $71.7 billion with an annual growth rate of 12 percent (MCIT 2009)— 10 directly
employing 2.23 million individuals and indirectly employing another 8 million individuals. Moreover, their export market was estimated at US
$40.4 billion with the U.S. accounting for 60 percent of exports. In concept, a win-win scenario occurs when two
parties in a relationship receive mutual benefits from that relationship and that one does not benefit at the
expense of the other. Qualitatively, the U.S. and India appear to have such a win-win relationship—
particularly in the information technology sector with respect to high-skill migration and economic
outcomes—though such a relationship may not be uniform across sectors. The precise nature of these relationships and
their benefits needs to be explored.
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Cyber Terror Impacts
Cyberwarfare causes space war
Coleman, 10 (Kevin Coleman, Defense Tech Chief Cyber War Correspondent, Cyber War = Space War, March 1st,
2010, http://defensetech.org/2010/03/01/cyber-war-space-war/#ixzz1948Fvj1r )
While the satellite broadband market slowed in 2009 because of the poor economy, it still increased. The market
continues to expand after U.S. regulators outlined the national broadband plan that allows satellite operators to use their
radio spectrum for Internet traffic. That is why cyber security professionals are so concerned about the convergence of
cyber space and space.
Its becoming increasingly evident that any future war between modern militaries would be both a space war and a cyber
war, in fact, they would be one and the same. Russia, China, and the U.S. have all stated they don’t want a space war, but
are all preparing for one if one occurs.
That sounds so familiar – oh wait a minute, didn’t Russia, China and the U.S. say the same thing about cyber war? Yes,
they did. Satellites in geostationary orbits provide broadband connectivity to businesses and customers. Those satellites
and their computer control ground stations present a viable target for offensive cyber actions. A hacker could disrupt or
interfere with satellite control communications and could disrupt the delivery of broadband services. In the absence of
such command signals, a satellite would malfunction.
Worldwide attention focused on China’s successful anti-satellite missile test. While military officials question the scale and
progress of the Chinese anti-satellite program, one has to wonder if China has already tested their anti-satellite cyber
weapon. Military leaders are all too aware of the convergence of space and cyber space. An increasing percentage of
military operations occur in cyber space and are integrated with and dependent on communication satellite systems in
outer space.
Extinction
Mitchell, et al 01 -Associate Professor of Communication and Director of Debate at the University of Pittsburgh
(Dr. Gordon, ISIS Briefing on Ballistic Missile Defence, “Missile Defence: Trans-Atlantic Diplomacy at a Crossroads”, No.
6 July,http://www.isisuk.demon.co.uk/0811/isis/uk/bmd/no6.html)
The dizzying speed of space warfare would introduce intense ‘use or lose’ pressure into strategic calculations, with the
spectre of split-second attacks creating incentives to rig orbiting. Death Start with automated ‘hair trigger’ devices. In
theory, this automation would enhance survivability of vulnerable space weapon platforms. However, by taking the
decision to commit violence out of human hands and endowing computers with authority to make war, military planners
could sow insidious seeds of accidental conflict.
Yale sociologist Charles Perrow has analyzed ‘complexlyinteractive, tightly coupled’ industrial systems such as space
weapons, which have many sophisticated components that all depend on each other’s flawless performance. According to
Perrow, this interlocking complexity makes it impossible to foresee all the different ways such systems could fail. As
Perrow explains, ‘[t]he odd term “normal accident” is meant to signal that, given the system characteristics, multiple and
unexpected interactions of failures are inevitable’.36 Deployment of space weapons with predelegated authority to fire
death rays or unleash killer projectiles would likely make war itself inevitable, given the susceptibility of such systems to
“normal accidents’.
It is chilling to contemplate the possible effects of a space war. According to retired Lt. Col. Robert M. Bowman, ‘even a
tiny projectile reentering from space strikes the earth with such high velocity that it can do enormous damage- even
more than would be done by a nuclear weapon of the same size!’.37 In the same Star Wars technology touted as a
quintessential tool of peace, defence analyst David Langford sees one of the most destabilizing offensive weapons ever
conceived: ’One imagines dead cities of microwave-grilled people’. Given this unique potential for destruction, it is not
hard to imagine that any nation subjected to space weapon attack would retaliate with maximum force, including use of
nuclear biological, and/or chemical weapons. An accidental war sparked by a computer glitch in space could plunge the
world into the most destructive military conflict ever seen.
And retaliation of a cyber-attack ensures global nuclear war
Lawson 09 (5/13, Dr. Sean Lawson is an assistant professor in the Department of Communication at the University of
Utah, “Cross-Domain Response to Cyber Attacks and the Threat of Conflict Escalation,” Transformation Tracker,
http://www.seanlawson.net/?p=477)
At a time when it seems impossible to avoid the seemingly growing hysteria over the threat of cyber war,[1] network
security expert Marcus Ranum delivered a refreshing talk recently, “The Problem with Cyber War,” that took a critical
look at a number of the assumptions underlying contemporary cybersecurity discourse in the United States. He
addressed one issue in partiuclar that I would like to riff on here, the issue of conflict escalation–i.e. the possibility
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that offensive use of cyber attacks could escalate to the use of physical force. As I will show, his concerns are
entirely legitimate as current U.S. military cyber doctrine assumes the possibility of what I call “cross-domain
responses” to cyberattacks. Backing Your Adversary (Mentally) into a Corner Based on the premise that completely
blinding a potential adversary is a good indicator to that adversary that an attack is iminent, Ranum has argued that “The
best thing that you could possibly do if you want to start World War III is launch a cyber attack. [...] When
people talk about cyber war like it’s a practical thing, what they’re really doing is messing with the OK button for starting
World War III. We need to get them to sit the f-k down and shut the f-k up.” [2] He is making a point similar to one that I
have made in the past: Taking away an adversary’s ability to make rational decisions could backfire. [3] For example,
Gregory Witol cautions that “attacking the decision maker’s ability to perform rational calculations may cause more
problems than it hopes to resolve. Removing the capacity for rational action may result in completely unforeseen
consequences, including longer and bloodier battles than may otherwise have been.” [4] Cross-Domain Response
So, from a theoretical standpoint, I think his concerns are well founded. But th e current state of U.S. policy may be
cause for even greater concern. It’s not just worrisome that a hypothetical blinding attack via cyberspace could
send a signal of imminent attack and therefore trigger an irrational response from the adversary. What is also
cause for concern is that current U.S. policy indicates that “kinetic attacks” (i.e. physical use of force) are
seen as potentially legitimate responses to cyber attacks. Most worrisome is that current U.S. policy implies
that a nuclear response is possible, something that policy makers have not denied in recent press reports.
The reason, in part, is that the U.S. defense community has increasingly come to see cyberspace as a “domain of
warfare” equivalent to air, land, sea, and space. The definition of cyberspace as its own domain of warfare helps in its
own right to blur the online/offline, physical-space/cyberspace boundary. But thinking logically about the potential
consequences of this framing leads to some disconcerting conclusions. If cyberspace is a domain of warfare, then it
becomes possible to define “cyber attacks” (whatever those may be said to entail) as acts of war. But what happens
if the U.S. is attacked in any of the other domains? It retaliates. But it usually does not respond only within the
domain in which it was attacked. Rather, responses are typically “cross-domain responses”–i.e. a massive bombing
on U.S. soil or vital U.S. interests abroad (e.g. think 9/11 or Pearl Harbor) might lead to air strikes against the
attacker. Even more likely given a U.S. military “way of warfare” that emphasizes multidimensional, “joint”
operations is a massive conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) response against the attacker in all domains (air, land, sea,
space), simultaneously. The possibility of “kinetic action” in response to cyber attack, or as part of offensive U.S.
cyber operations, is part of the current (2006) National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations [5]: Of
course, the possibility that a cyber attack on the U.S. could lead to a U.S. nuclear reply constitutes possibly the ultimate in
“cross-domain response.” And while this may seem far fetched, it has not been ruled out by U.S. defense policy makers
and is, in fact, implied in current U.S. defense policy documents. From the National Military Strategy of the United States
(2004): “The term WMD/E relates to a broad range of adversary capabilities that pose potentially devastating impacts.
WMD/E includes chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and enhanced high explosive weapons as well as other, more
asymmetrical ‘weapons’. They may rely more on disruptive impact than destructive kinetic effects. For example, cyber
attacks on US commercial information systems or attacks against transportation networks may have a greater economic or
psychological effect than a relatively small release of a lethal agent.” [6] The authors of a 2009 National Academies of
Science report on cyberwarfare respond to this by saying, “Coupled with the declaratory policy on nuclear weapons
described earlier, this statement implies that the United States will regard certain kinds of cyberattacks against the
United States as being in the same category as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and thus that a
nuclear response to certain kinds of cyberattacks (namely, cyberattacks with devastating impacts) may be possible.
It also sets a relevant scale–a cyberattack that has an impact larger than that associated with a relatively small release of a
lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness.” [7] Asked by the New York Times to comment on this, U.S.
defense officials would not deny that nuclear retaliation remains an option for response to a massive
cyberattack:
None of their impact defense assumes Stuxnet
Clayton, 10 (Stuxnet 'virus' could be altered to attack US facilities, report warns, December 12, 2010,
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2010/1215/Stuxnet-virus-could-be-altered-to-attack-US-facilities-report-warns)
Stuxnet, a computer worm that hit and may have severely damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, is the type of cyberweapon
that could broadly harm the United States, undermining both society and government ability to defend the nation, says a
strongly worded report to Congress.
A successful broad-based attack on the US, using new variants of the Stuxnet weapon, could do enough widespread
damage to critical infrastructure – including water, power, transportation, and other services – that it "threatens to cause
harm to many activities deemed critical to the basic functioning of modern society," said the little-noticed report issued by
the Congressional Research Service (CRS) Dec. 9.
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If retooled slightly, Stuxnet could be directed to target a wide swath of critical infrastructure facilities, rather than a
narrow target such as Iran's nuclear fuel-enrichment facilities and nuclear power plant, the eight-page CRS synopsis
warns, quoting researchers and other analysts.
IN PICTURES: Who has nukes?
"Depending on the severity of the attack, the interconnected nature of the affected critical infrastructure facilities, and
government preparation and response plans, entities and individuals relying on these facilities could be without life
sustaining or comforting services for a long period of time," the study's summary states. "The resulting damage to the
nation’s critical infrastructure could threaten many aspects of life, including the government’s ability to safeguard national
security interests."
Terrorist groups, previously deemed not to have much independent ability to launch damaging cyberattacks, could
potentially purchase or even rent a Stuxnet-based variant from organized crime groups to launch an infrastructure attack
on the US, the report warns.
While some experts say the "cyber threat to critical infrastructure is exaggerated, regardless of the perpetrators’
capabilities," most such skepticism has been general in nature and does not factor in the new Stuxnet cyberweapon, the
report says.
The report quotes Dr. Udo Helmbrecht, executive director of the European Network and Information Security Agency, as
saying in October that “Stuxnet is really a paradigm shift, as Stuxnet is a new class and dimension of malware." He went
on to call it a "first strike" weapon that is "one of the first organized, well prepared attacks against major industrial
resources. This has tremendous effect on how to protect national (critical infrastructure) in the future.”
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1AC-BJP Advantage
Advantage: ___ BJP
The BJP is dying now-Voters don’t think its message is as relevant and they can’t win
elections
FP 10
2006 and 2005 nominee and a 2009, 2007, and 2003 winner of the National Magazine Award for General Excellence. The magazine’s readers include some of the most
influential leaders in business, government, and other professional arenas throughout the United States and more than 160 other countries.
(“Does India Still Need a Hindu Nationalist Party?”, April 30, 2010
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/04/30/does_india_still_need_a_hindu_nationalist_party?page=0,1)
It's been a tough 12 months for India's Bharatiya Janata Party. Last spring, the center-right political counterweight to
the Gandhi clan's left-leaning Congress Party was routed in India's national elections, losing two dozen
seats in the country's lower house after mustering just 19 percent of the national vote. The results continued
the BJP's slide, wiping out a third of the seats it had amassed during its political high a decade earlier. After
last spring's crushing defeat, the party vowed to rise again. But then more losses followed in state elections.
Most recently, a top BJP figure's testimony about his role in 2002 religious riots in Gujarat that left nearly
2,000 Muslims dead highlighted the lingering image problems the party faces. It also pointed to a larger
issue plaguing the BJP: Can the party survive while still holding on to its founding ideology? So far, there
have been no easy answers. The BJP rose to power a decade ago brandishing an assertive brand of
nationalism called Hindutva. Hindutva -- meaning, essentially, "Hindu-ness" -- stirred a potent mix of cultural
nostalgia and aggressive religious nationalism that proved to be political gold. Hindutva also has a
conveniently loose definition: It can imply anything from a fairly benign affirmation of Hindu culture and
history to a more virulently anti-Muslim chauvinism. Because of this, the BJP was able to form alliances
with hard-line subgroups like Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) and Shiv Sena, a Maharashtra-based
party whose politics were expanded from localized ethnic politics to include a form of Hindutva.
They’re key to Indian democracy
Vijay 9
Tarun, Director, Dr Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation, Indian Think Tank
(“Why India needs the BJP”, August 21, 2009, http://news.rediff.com/column/2009/aug/21/why-india-needs-the-bjp.htm
These lengthy quotations are essential to understand the real purpose behind the BJP, which has accepted Dr Mookerjee and Deen Dayal Upadhyaya as its sources of inspiration showing the
the independence movement essentially drew from Hindu nationalist
ideological path. In pre-Partition days,
symbols and writings
expressed through Mahatma Gandhi's [ Images ] Ram Rajya, Sri Aurobindo's Bhawani Bharati concept which saw India as Durga incarnate and declared Sanatan Dharma as the nationality of India,
They were all deeply Hindu spiritual personalities who espoused the cause of
freedom, liberty, equality and democracy. There was less ideological apartheid than we see today and
newspapers like The Hindu and The Hindustan Times were not looked down just because they bore a word
Hindu and parties like the Hindu Mahasabha, Ram Rajya Parishad etc were in the mainstream without experiencing any kind of 'ideological untouchability'. It's only after Independence under
the influence of Nehruvian left-to-centre policies that the assertive Hindus segment was sought to be humiliated and segregated. In the contemporary political scene,
the Congress, which once represented the federal liberal character of Hindu nationalist ideas advocating equality to all, has turned into a family oriented party
where internal democratic process is completely subjugated to the wishes and whims of a supreme leader who
also happens to be a family head. Except for the Communist parties and the BJP there is a hardly a party that is
democratically run and controlled from the grassroot levels. Hence, in spite of internal bickering and trivial
issues cropping up, a party that was born post Independence representing a distinct ideology and
programmes can only be a strengthening factor for democracy. Its amazing growth and power to rule the nation quite successfully have further
added to its credibility. Those who oppose it must look at the fact sheet it has so far built -- giving India the best of the
highways, an IT and technological revolution, best run states in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh [ Images ] and Chhattisgarh and above all a
credible opposition that has a vast acceptability at an all India level, giving a pan India character to the polity.
Vivekananda, Lokmanya Tilak, and Subhas Bose.
The poet who wrote, 'Gagan mein laharta hai bhagwa hamara (The saffron flies high in the sky)' became the most admired prime minister, the first genuinely non-Congress one and his regime saw
the best of relations with neighbours. Atal Bihari Vajpayee [ Images ] allowed Pokaran II, yet maintained better ties with the US, China and Pakistan without compromising on national interest.
This party has another distinct feature -- it can boast of a galaxy of national leaders who command a mass
following unlike others who have none but their 'eternally elected' chiefs alone for the posters and
platforms diminishing any second or third rank leadership. And you don't have to belong to a family or a family's durbar to aspire for higher goals
and posts in the party. Someone who was a village level worker and did his bit to gain acceptance could become party president and was never told, oh you don't have a particular last name hence
can rise this far and no further. Pardon me if in this context, to clarify a bit more, I recall a Q&A session I had in China where I was asked in a university by students – 'What's the use of your
democracy if it can't deliver? See Bihar and Orissa and UP's rural areas and farmers suicides? We may not be having the democracy you like to ape from the West but our one party system is
delivering fine.' I was not surprised.
The value of democracy can be understood only when you lose it after enjoying its
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(CONTINUED)
fruits. I simply said, even with half filled stomachs and often self defeating noises, we prefer freedom more than a totalitarian regime guaranteeing prosperity to all. Liberty can
have no alternative. And that's exactly the most powerful factor that makes the BJP indefatigable and invincible. The party's inner core promises to rise like a Phoenix if the outer
shell fails to translate the ideals it was born to achieve. It may look a bit preposterous to say these high pedestal things when the party is making news not for some happy reasons. It is sad, but it will
pass. The party is not built by those who were adherents of a family, but by those small yet strongly committed young hearts who built it on their shoulders because they shared a vision and a dream.
the BJP. They never aspired to make it big in Delhi [ Images ]
but from Silchar to Shimoga and Doda to Port Blair, they have been working. These workers are the strength of the party and not
those who make big speeches and then wash dirty linen in the media. They must be powered and their
moral needs to be boosted by a united commitment to principles leaders claim they accept. Today these workers have
I have seen three generations working together, first for the Jan Sangh and then for its new avatar,
emerged taller because they have lived the ideals espoused by Deen Dayal Upadhyaya who had merged his identity with the common cadre and lived by his principles through his own life's example.
He gave the alternative ideology of integral humanism before the two alien ones namely capitalism and
communism. That almost supplements and complements Gandhi's Hind Swarajya whose hundredth year is passing so unceremoniously in the raj of the 'Gandhis'. It is this
perfectly ideological rock of our civilisation represented by the BJP in politics that India needs fervently.
That’s key to Asian stability
Lee 10
John, foreign policy research fellow at the Center for Independent Studies and a Visiting Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington. He is the author
of Will China Fail?
(“India's Edge Over China: Soft Power In the struggle to win support around Asia, India's openness gives the country a big advantage compared with
China, columnist John Lee writes, Bloomberg, http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jun2010/gb20100617_150774.htm)
While China's neighbors look at the country's rise with a mixture of apprehension and admiration, the story of India's reemergence as a regional power is more attractive
to many states in the region. After all, unlike China, India has no history of invasion or domination in East and Southeast Asia and does not have competing claims in the
South China Sea with other Asian states. Moreover, "in today's world," India's then-Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor said in a speech last November,
"it is not the size of the army that wins but the country that tells the better story." As
the world's largest democracy, with a vibrant press
and thriving entertainment industry, India has huge soft power advantages over China and its state-controlled media. The
implication is India can take advantage of that goodwill as Asia's two giants battle for influence in the region and around the world. Tharoor is
correct to refer to India's soft-power advantages. But goodwill towards India and the enormous potential of Indian soft power—
the ability to influence the behavior of other states through attraction and cooptation rather than military force or economic inducement—does not arise
simply from the growing popularity of Bollywood movies or the fact that Indian contestants (along with those from Venezuela) have won
more Miss World contests than any other country. The fact that one likes Indian culture may not necessarily lead foreign governments to accede and acquiesce to Indian
foreign policy objectives. Instead, power—soft or hard—needs
to be understood within the context of how attractiveness and
influence in the region is acquired and wielded. The regional order over the past two decades has been
characterized by a move toward open markets, multinational cooperation, international rule-of-law, and an
evolving democratic community—all backed by American preeminence and Washington's security alliances and partnerships with key capitals, such as
Tokyo, Seoul, Canberra, Singapore, Manila and Bangkok. The enduring preference of all key states (with the exception of China) is to maintain the existing order vis-àvis newly reemerging powers such as China and India. STRATEGICALLY COMFORTABLE That
India is rising through full and unapologetic
participation in the American-led regional order works to its advantage. Although India is not looking to
become an American ally, New Delhi is fundamentally satisfied with the existing strategic order. As Singapore's
Foreign Minister George Yeo puts it in an interview with The Hindu newspaper in January 2007, "We see India's presence as being a beneficial
and beneficent one to all of us in Southeast Asia." Moreover, India was already a robust democratic country that
has remained intact despite still-open wounds from decades of disastrous socialist economic policies. That allows the country to leverage what
Professor Michael Mandelbaum of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies calls " democratic exemplarism"—a paradigm
emerging from the successful examples of not just the U.S. but the evolving liberal democracies in East and
Southeast Asia. In particular, Indian politics and society are well aligned with regional standards of what
constitutes a modern and legitimate social and political system. Unlike the intolerance of political pluralism
in China, India's domestic habits of negotiation and compromise from 60 years of robust democracy offer
greater reassurance to other states that these virtues will be carried over in New Delhi's interaction with
other capitals. NOT MUCH APPREHENSION Therefore, in addition to being impressed with India's recently acquired hard-power abilities (such as its
naval fleet of almost 60 surface ships), plus an economy that has been growing at a rate of 7 percent to 8 percent for almost two decades, political and
strategic elites increasingly see India as a predictable, stabilizing, cooperative, and attractive rising power.
The notable lack of apprehension about India's rise and the eagerness to help India emerge as a new center
of power in Asia is demonstrated by the remarkable speed with which India has been welcomed as a trusted
strategic player in the region by all status quo states—fulfilling New Delhi's objective of becoming an
indispensable and crucial player in the regional security setup.
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Global nuke war
Cirincione 2k
(Cirincione, Joseph. "The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chain." Foreign Policy (Spring 2000): 120. Expanded Academic ASAP.)
The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia, where proliferation pressures are already building more
quickly than anywhere else in the world. If a nuclear breakout takes place in Asia, then the international
arms control agreements that have been painstakingly negotiated over the past 40 years will crumble.
Moreover, the United States could find itself embroiled in its fourth war on the Asian continent in six
decades--a costly rebuke to those who seek the safety of Fortress America by hiding behind national missile defenses. Consider what is already happening: North
Korea continues to play guessing games with its nuclear and missile programs; South Korea wants its own missiles to match Pyongyang's; India and Pakistan shoot
across borders while running a slow-motion nuclear arms race; China modernizes its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with Taiwan and the United States; Japan's vice
defense minister is forced to resign after extolling the benefits of nuclear weapons; and Russia--whose Far East nuclear deployments alone make it the largest Asian
nuclear power--struggles to maintain territorial coherence.
Five of these states have nuclear weapons; the others are capable of
constructing them. Like neutrons firing from a split atom, one nation's actions can trigger reactions
throughout the region, which in turn, stimulate additional actions. These nations form an interlocking Asian
nuclear reaction chain that vibrates dangerously with each new development. If the frequency and intensity of
this reaction cycle increase, critical decisions taken by any one of these governments could cascade into the
second great wave of nuclear-weapon proliferation, bringing regional and global economic and political instability and, perhaps, the
first combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.
Indian-American immigrants key-They give money and legitimacy to the BJP
Mathew & Prashad 1
B. Mathew and V. Prashad Proffessors@ Rider College, New Jersey and Trinity College, Connecticut, respectively
(“Hindutva for a Few Dollars a Day”, 2001, Sabrang Alternative News Network, http://www.sabrang.com/news/biju1.htm)
Money Talks Besides the electronic networks and university campuses, Yankee Hindutva draws upon traditional organising sites such as temples, conferences and regional economic and cultural
institutions. The busloads of young Indian-Americans arriving at the GV2000 conference for a dose of the spiritual offers evidence for traditional mass mobilisation; the T-shirts distributed by
Yankee Hindutva is
not an anachronistic project which will be worn out by the sands of time; if that were so, its growth should not cause fear. The ensemble
is strongly linked with the movement in India and its strategies reveal the virtuoso techniques by which it
draws the youth (by acknowledging their crises, even if its own offer of a solution is far from adequate). The Vishwa Hindu Parishad’s Memorandum of Association clearly demonstrates
ISKCON (“Be Udderly Cool”, “Save a Cow”) and the blue baseball caps with VHPA embossed in white, offer evidence of the traditional forms of propaganda.
the global strategies of what is a dynamic, global project: (a) The Trustees may open or may help to establish Associations in countries outside Bharat having similar aims and objects or affiliate such
associations with the Parishad. (b) The Board of Trustees shall have the power to collect funds and donations from Hindus residing outside Bharat or from the Associations established or affiliated
as mentioned in sub-rule (a) of this rule to hold such funds and spend them for the objects of the Parishad. For this purpose the Trustees may appoint any bank or person to act as their authorised
The Hindutva project is engineered by the bourgeois-technocrat, who forms part of the new trans-national elite in our recent phase of global capitalism. This elite
is able to conduct its political work in two nations. The Hindujas, for example, both welcome the BJP as a
positive force in Indian politics and simultaneously donate millions of dollars to Columbia University to
start a Vedic Studies program. A management consultant in Maryland posts two letters addressed to him on the internet to demonstrate his sympathies for the Hindutva
agent.
project: one from Ashok Singhal on Goverment of India letterhead (Singhal was Home Minister for 14 days this year) and the other from Jay Dubashi, the BJP’s economic wizard. How does this
As a member of the trans-national elite, he is perhaps not altogether ‘obscure’, for
his American location makes him powerful in India. The financial clout of the Hindutva forces in the US
can be understood if one looks at the growth in its income figures over the last five years. Between 1990-92
the average income of the VHPA was $385,462. By 1993, its income had gone up to $1,057,147. Over the
years, the VHPA has discreetly transferred money into India. It is common knowledge that during the wave of Shilapujan ceremonies across the globe,
millions of dollars in cash and kind reached India. It is also common knowledge that VHP and BJP
functionaries carry back huge sums of money in cash or kind after each visit to the US. We do not know the sums involved. One aspect of
‘obscure’ consultant get such access to power?
the financial relations of the VHPA to the Subcontinent can be documented: the VHPA runs two programmes, the Vanvasi Seva and Support a Child, which transfer money to non-governmental
front organisations in South Asia. Compared to the volume of industrial investment flowing into India, the figures of half a million under the Seva programme appear to be insignificant. However,
that half million enters the country in a sector which draws money from neither the Indian State nor multi-national capital. This sector is made up of organisations which battle for the spoils of the
The Hindutva groups are immediately among the elite of
these groups given their pipeline of funds and these groups are, therefore, able to exert their influence among
subaltern populations. In addition to the financial significance of the American groups, the NRIs offer their
Indian allies legitimacy. Imperial domination began a tradition in India of valorising anything ‘foreign’; the
BJP frequently refers to its American allies in order to reaffirm its legitimacy as the party that appeals to even
those who live overseas.
liberal elements in the advanced industrial countries as well as the domestic bourgeoisie.
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OLD Contention 2: Solvency
More H1-B’s to India are key to a deeper relations insulated from political fights. China
and the Soviet Union prove visas foster other forms of cooperation
Pickering & Agre 10
Thomas & Peter, Pickering served as undersecretary of state from 1997-2000 and chairs the advisory council of the Civilian Research and Development
Foundation. Agre, a Nobel laureate, is a physician and director of the Malaria Research Institute at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health. He is president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. ( “Science diplomacy aids conflict reduction”, February 20, 2010,
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/feb/20/science-diplomacy-aids-conflict-reduction/)
The White House and Congress have made welcome moves to embrace the potential of science diplomacy, but in the months and years
will need to exert still more leadership and make sure the effort has the resources needed to
succeed. Science diplomacy is hardly a new idea. A 1979 agreement between the U nited States and China
paved the way for bilateral scientific cooperation that has generated vast benefits for both nations,
including reduced tensions and billions of dollars in economic activity. U.S. and Soviet nongovernmental
organizations contributed to a Cold War thaw through scientific exchanges, with little government support
other than travel visas. Now, science diplomacy may help America open a door toward improved relations with Pyongyang, too. Last
ahead, they
December, six Americans representing leading scientific organizations sat down with their North Korean counterparts. High-level science
delegations from the United States in recent months also have visited Syria, Cuba and Rwanda, not to mention Asian and European nations.
America’s scientific and technological accomplishments are admired worldwide, suggesting a valuable way to promote dialogue. A June 2004 Zogby
International poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute found that a deeply unfavorable view of the U.S. in many Muslim nations, but a
profoundly favorable view of U.S. science and technology. Similarly, Pew polling data from 43 countries shows that favorable views of U.S.
science and technology exceed overall views of the United States by an average of 23 points. Within the scientific
community, journals routinely publish articles cowritten by scientists from different nations, and scholars
convene frequent conferences to extend those ties. Science demands an intellectually honest atmosphere,
peer review and a common language for the professional exchange of ideas. Basic values of transparency,
vigorous inquiry and respectful debate are all essential. The North Korea visit, organized by the U.S.-Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea Science Engagement Consortium, exemplifies the vast potential of science for diplomacy. The U.S.
government already has 43 bilateral umbrella science and technology agreements with nations worldwide, and the administration of President
Barack Obama is elevating the profile of science engagement. In June, in Cairo, he promised a range of joint science and technology initiatives with
Muslim-majority countries. In November, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appointed three science envoys to foster new partnerships and address
common challenges, especially within Muslim-majority countries. In addition to providing resources, the government should quickly
and significantly increase the number of H1-B visas being approved for foreign doctors, scientists and
engineers. Foreign scientists working or studying in U.S. universities make critical contributions to human
welfare and to our economy, and they often become informal goodwill ambassadors for America overseas.
Science is a wide-ranging effort that naturally crosses borders, and so scientist-to-scientist collaboration
can promote goodwill at the grass roots.
Increased H1B’s are key to the Indian biotech sector-Brain circulation brings expertise and social
capital back to the country-The software boom proves
Ahmed & Wamsley 8
Amer, graduate student of the Center for Global Trade Analysis * a Research Assistant Professor and Director of the Center for Global Trade Analysis
(“THE LIBERALIZATION OF TEMPORARY MIGRATION:
INDIA’S STORY”, Feburary 2008, https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/3646.pdf)
Return migration has also been hailed as the cure for brain drain woes, by leading to a brain circulation
scenario, whereby the initial loss of skilled workers is mirrored by an influx of returning skilled migrant
workers. It has been argued that the returning migrant workers bring back higher productivities, experience, and
financial support which benefit India – transforming the brain drain into a gain. The mechanism by which the initial
outflow of workers – the brain drain – becomes a brain gain is illustrated in Figure 2.1. Balasubramanyam and Balasubramanyam (1997) argue that
migrants, who originally left in the 1960s and 1970s, played an important role in the establishment of the
Indian software sector upon their return. As evidence they point to a number of software companies
founded in Bangalore – including three of the most prominent firms, Wipro Limited, Infomart, and BPL
Systems – which were established by return migrant workers; concluding that it was this return migration,
and the subsequent brain gain, which provided much of the impetus for the rapid growth in India’s
software sector. 11 Anecdotal evidence suggests that remittances from the US into India in the GMig2 Data Base are too high, since the lions’
shares of remittances that go to South Asia are believed to come from unskilled workers in the Middle East. However, according to figures from the
Reserve Bank of India (2006), remittances from USA based Indian expatriates account for 44% of the total remittances received. The estimates
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calculated from the GMig2 Database are thus in the ballpark. Sensitivity analyses will examine alternative remittance distributions by source
country. 12 The Gulf Cooperation Council comprises the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman.
10 Figure 2-1 Brain Circulation As a result of these potential benefits from return migration, the Indian Government
has developed programs aimed at Non-Resident Indians13 (NRI) and Persons of Indian Origin14 (PIO).
These programs include granting visa waivers and the facilitation of financial services, normally reserved
for Indian citizens. Overall engagement with potential return migrant workers and appeals to the
permanent migrants to participate in the development of India has become an integral part of government
policy in India. Currently there is very little return migration occurring, and it would be very easy to overestimate the
actual return migration rate to India. As Saxenian (2000) has noted, very few Indian expatriates come back to India permanently as return migrant
workers. Cervantes and Guellec (2002) support this by saying that in 2000 there were only 1500 return migrant workers while about thirty times
that number, leave every year. If government policies for temporary skilled migration, under any conceptual framework, are
to be successful the rate of return migration needs to be increased. A key assumption of Mode 4 liberalization is that
return migration will occur at a specific rate, since it is a temporary movement by design. Guest worker schemes
or mechanisms, such as the United States’ H1B system, would be most conducive to increasing return migration.
Circulation isn’t the norm-India represents a special case whereby migration can boost
domestic industry
Davis 10
Ted, School of Public Policy @ George Mason Univeristy, *first part of a dissertation (draft)
(“Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management Migration: A World in Motion A Multinational Conference on Migration
and Migration Policy”, February 18-20, 2010,
https://www.appam.org/conferences/international/maastricht2010/sessions/downloads/389.1.pdf)
In 2008, India had the highest level of H-1B and L-1 admissions for high-skill employment (Monger and Barr 2009).
Their H-1B admissions were more than five times that of Canada, the second ranked country. They also had the third highest F-1 admissions for
advanced education and the third highest individuals accepted for legal permanent residence. According to the Ministry of External Affairs (2000),
the per capita income of Indians in the U.S. was $60,093 compared to the U.S. average of $38,885. About 300,000 work in Silicon Valley
technology firms and accounted for 15% of high-tech start-ups; their average salary was over $200,000; and there were about 700 Indian-owned
companies. Many Indians in the U.S. also advanced to high positions in U.S. companies, such as the CEO of Microchip
Technologies, the president of Bell Labs, and senior vice-president of Qualcomm.
Successful Indians in the U.S. also were
notable for the relations they maintained to India. These relationships brought attention to resources and
opportunities in India—leading many multinational firms to locate research and development centers in
India, including General Electric, CISCO, Sun Microsystems, Microsoft, IBM, Intel, and Oracle (Ministry of External Affairs 2000). The
information technology sector in India, in particular, had shown significant growth with a compounded
annual growth rate of 55 percent from 1992 to 2000. In 2008-2009 the revenue of the information technology and business
process outsourcing industry in India was estimated at US $71.7 billion with an annual growth rate of 12 percent (MCIT 2009)— 10 directly
employing 2.23 million individuals and indirectly employing another 8 million individuals. Moreover, their export market was estimated at US
$40.4 billion with the U.S. accounting for 60 percent of exports. In concept, a win-win scenario occurs when two
parties in a relationship receive mutual benefits from that relationship and that one does not benefit at the
expense of the other. Qualitatively, the U.S. and India appear to have such a win-win relationship—
particularly in the information technology sector with respect to high-skill migration and economic
outcomes—though such a relationship may not be uniform across sectors. The precise nature of these relationships and
their benefits needs to be explored.
H1B’s are how the industry gets it’s specialists
Dahms & Trow 5
A. Stephen Dahms is at the California State University System Biotechnology Program, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, USA and
Stephen C. Trow is at Trow & Rahal, PC, an immigration law firm in Washington, DC, USA, “US biotechnology companies and foreign nationals: the
changing dynamics of access to H-1B visas” Volume 23 Number 5 May 2005 Nature Biotechnology
Regional biotechnology industry clusters cite access to a skilled labor pool as one of the top two or three
most significant hurdles to commercialization. In the United States, a shortfall in the labor pool has
required access to foreign workers in a variety of areas and expertise. Starting with efforts in California, the
industry was surveyed in 1998–2001, which led to findings that, depending upon the region, between 6% and 10% of the US
biotechnology workforce had H-1B visas, with an estimate of 18,000 in the biotech industry nationally, and
projected needs of 25% annual increases in some of the clusters. Relatedly, the US Department of Commerce reported in
2003 that the biotech industry workforce grew annually by 12% over the period 1997–2003. Biotechnology industry surveys of H-1B visa usage1 also
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found that 80% of biotechnology H-1Bs were from US universities, 75% were graduate-degreed (40% PhD, 35% MS, 20% BS and 5% MD), 85%
eventually acquired permanent residency in the US and companies were spending an average of $10,200 on each H-1B worker for processing fees
and legal expenses through to a green card, leading to the conclusion that US companies had spent in excess of $150 million over the previous five
years to acquire and keep their H-1B workers. These and other survey data also clearly showed that the H-1B worker
skill sets sought by biotech companies identically match the most pressing employment needs of the
industry overall and that their compensation was equal to, or in most cases, higher than US nationals.
Recent history Access to H-1B visas is limited by a ‘cap’ or annual limit on the number of new foreign
workers who can be granted H-1B visa status. Increasing demand for H-1B visa status first exceeded the cap in September 1997,
and then caused major disruptions in May 1998 when processing of petitions for new H-1B workers was suspended for the remaining five months of
fiscal year (FY) 1998. In response to pressure exerted by the information technology (IT) industry and the Biotechnology
Industry Organization (BIO; Washington, DC, USA), the H-1B cap was raised from 65,000 to 115,000 in FY 1999 and
then again to 195,000 in FY 2001, with a provision that the cap would revert to 65,000 on October 1, 2004.
Starting in mid-2001, discussions began within BIO about legislative strategies to raise the cap from
65,000 back to a level that would assure access to these talented foreign nationals. This initiative
was derailed by the events of September 11, after which any discussion of increasing the entry of foreign
workers was counter to public and congressional opinion. Although there has not been a biotechnology
industry H-1B needs survey since early 2001, it is thought that demands are increasing in the range of
3,500 to 5,000 per year. Fortunately, the law raising the cap for FY 2001 also exempted from the cap all H-1B workers employed at an
institution of higher education or a related or affiliated nonprofit entity, or at a nonprofit research organization or a governmental research
organization, thus removing approximately 10,000 workers from the H-1B cap. The current situation On October 1, 2004, when FY 2005 began and
the H-1B cap reverted to 65,000, the US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced that it had received enough H-1B petitions
during the preceding six months to use up the entire supply for FY 2005. The USCIS indicated that it would continue to process petitions that it
received before October 1, but it would not accept any new H-1B petitions that are subject to the cap for FY 2005. It also announced that it would
start to accept petitions for FY 2006 on April 1, 2005, six months before the start of FY 2006. Many employers expected that the USCIS would
receive enough petitions to exhaust the FY 2006 supply well before October 1, 2005, and made plans to file their petitions in April 2005. In
December 2004, the FY 2005 Omnibus Appropriations Act exempted from the H-1B cap up to 20,000 foreign nationals per year who have earned a
master’s degree or higher from a US university. This change was prompted by renewed pressure from the IT, semiconductor and engineering
industrial sectors, especially the National Association of Manufacturers (which BIO has partnered with on the H-1B issue since the mid-1990s). The
new exemption is vitally important for foreign students who graduated from US universities during 2004 and are now working in F-1 or J-1 visa
status with practical training authorization that expires before October 1, 2005. The exemption was scheduled to take effect on March 8, 2005, and
it was expected that the 20,000 new slots would be taken quickly, so employers made plans to file petitions for qualifying workers on March 8.
There were no changes in the other exemptions from the H-1B cap, so employers continued with their plans to file petitions for nonexempt workers
on April 1. However, on March 4, 2005, the USCIS announced that it was not ready to accept petitions for these 20,000 new H-1B slots as scheduled
on March 8, and then it announced to great surprise that these 20,000 slots would not be limited to foreign nationals with a master’s/PhD degree
from a US university. The USCIS did not publish a rationale for this dramatic change, but it appears to be based on a determination that at least
20,000 petitions for master’s/PhD graduates of US universities had already been approved during FY 2005, making the 20,000 new slots available
to any qualified applicants. In addition, in late March the USCIS announced that it had mistakenly approved at least 10,000 more H-1B petitions
during FY 2005 than authorized by the 65,000 cap. This series of announcements left employers wondering whether the 10,000 excess approvals
would be deducted from the 20,000 new slots, leaving only 10,000 new slots to be given to any and all qualified applicants. As of April 20 the
USCIS had still not announced the filing date and procedure for the 20,000 new H-1B slots that were expected to be available on March 8, nor had
it indicated whether the 10,000 excess approvals would be deducted from the 20,000 new slots. The prospects for recent master’s/PhD graduates of
US universities to avoid gaps in their work authorization before October 1, 2005, are looking much worse, whereas graduates of foreign universities
and bachelor’s degree graduates of US universities can now hope for a windfall H-1B approval before October 1. Regardless of how these
issues are resolved, the delay and uncertainty have made life more difficult for employers and workers
seeking H-1B status. Fee hikes and usage Employers struggling with the limited supply of H-1B visas and confusion over eligibility for the
20,000 new slots are also facing sharply higher filing fees for H-1B petitions. The FY 2005 Omnibus Appropriations Act reinstated a ‘training’ fee
that had lapsed in October 2003 and increased that fee from $1,000 to $1,500 for most H-1B petitions. The training fee is reduced to $750 for
employers that have no more than 25 full-time equivalent employees, including employees of affiliates and subsidiaries. This fee will fund job
training and scholarships for US workers, and government processing of H-1B cases. The Appropriations Act also imposed an additional $500
‘fraud prevention’ fee for each petition seeking an initial grant of H-1B status or authorization to change employers in H-1B status. This will provide
additional funding for visa fraud prevention programs at USCIS and other government agencies. These new fees are separate from the mandatory
$185 base fee for an H-1B visa petition, and the optional $1,000 fee for premium processing (faster service) from the USCIS. The total filing fee for a
large employer seeking premium processing of an H-1B visa petition is now $3,185. Over $500 million of H-1B training fees have been collected and
routed by the US Department of Labor since 1999 to fund new training programs to help reduce dependency upon foreign nationals, but
unfortunately none of these funds has been directed at the graduate-degree education that the biotechnology industry needs. Biotech
employers are paying H-1B training fees to create programs to relieve their dependency on foreign workers,
yet most H-1B workers in the biotech and high-tech industries are coming from US educational institutions.
The problem arises on the supply side of the labor equation, not the demand side. Currently, over 25% of all
PhDs in the US are foreign nationals, and over 50% of all graduate students are foreign students. Funding
graduate-level training programs will not reduce the demand for H1B workers if US students decline to
enroll in those programs. Conclusions Clearly, the H-1B visa program provides a temporary solution to
shortages in the national and domestic biotech labor pools— shortages that mirror the inadequate
production of appropriately trained US nationals by US institutions of higher learning. The reality is that
universities have inadequate resources for expanding their training pipelines, especially in specialized areas
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that follow the basic-research phase of company product development. Efforts should be directed toward
influencing greater congressional and federal agency attention to these important topics, especially an
increase in the H-1B cap and effective use of the very sizable H-1B fee–derived training funds.
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OLDAdvantage 1: Indian Agriculture
India’s agricultural sector is on the verge of disaster. Thousands commit suicide as
limited resources and irregular monsoons make new tech key to expanding
productivity
Straits Times 10
Established in 1845 the Country's highest-selling paper in any language
(“India Faces Food Shortage” by, Ravi Velloor, June 28, 2010 http://wildsingaporenews.blogspot.com/2010/06/india-faces-food-shortage.html)
But he
has one growing worry: India's failing farm sector, where six out of 10 of its citizens make their living.
Shortages of grain are a major concern, and food prices are soaring. Misery on the farm front, including
farmers' inability to pay off moneylenders, leads to thousands taking their own lives every year. 'India must
strive to raise agricultural production from 2 per cent annually on average to 4 per cent,' Dr Singh, an economist by
training, said recently. The annual monsoon has become unreliable. When it failed last year, production of food
grains dropped to below 220 million tonnes, barely enough to feed a population of 1.2 billion. Farm
productivity is so poor that India lags behind its neighbours Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in the
amount of rice it can extract from every acre of land. 'We are on the verge of a disaster,' says Professor
M.S. Swaminathan, India's foremost agriculture scientist and a Magsaysay Prize winner. 'We will be in
serious difficulty if food productivity is not increased and farming is neglected.' Even though the forecast is
for a normal monsoon this year, long-term issues remain to be tackled and that is on Dr Singh's mind. 'India
commands about 2.3 per cent of the world's land area and about 4 per cent of the earth's fresh water
resources, but feeds about 17 per cent of the world's population,' he pointed out. 'This puts tremendous pressure
on our resources and makes the need for newer and better technologies even more critical.' What is proving
elusive for Dr Singh is the sort of success that his home state, Punjab, achieved in the late 1960s, when Prof
Swaminathan and other scientists helped bring about what is known as India's Green Revolution.
India’s response to shortfalls is increasing fertilizer use which further decreases productivity and
makes food insecurity inevitable
ANI 10
Asian News International, Founded over 50 years ago, ANI is today South Asia 's leading multimedia news agency with over 100 bureaus in India , South
Asia and across the globe. (“Greenpeace ‘Living Soils’ campaign calls to save soils from harmful chemical fertilizers, August 3, 2010,
http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report_greenpeace-living-soils-campaign-calls-to-save-soils-from-harmful-chemical-fertilizers_1418211)
Every year Central government spends around Rs50,000 crores on chemical fertilizer subsidies, and this is
a major driver that catalyzes intensive chemical fertilizer usage4. The Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) policy
which was brought in to correct this problem continues to support only chemical fertilizers, and hence fails
in its own cause. The new policy proves to be an old wine in new bottle. “On one hand our Union government worries about the
declining agricultural productivity due to soil degradation and food security and on the other hand they
continue to support chemical fertilizers. Support for organic fertilization practices in mainstream
agriculture is very minimal. This anomaly can jeopardise the Agriculture production system”, said Tapan Sharma of
Diamond Club Community Center, Sipachar, Darrang. “We should not wait for the problems to appear. In the case of Assam we should learn from bad
experiences from other regions and go the ecological way at the earliest, said Kulendra Deka, general secretary of North East
Centre for All Round Development (NE CARD), Darrang
Productivity loss causes Indo-Pak nuclear war
Crowell 9
Ex-Member of the Air Reserve Technician program, a nucleus of managers, planners and trainers who have knowledge and expertise to smooth Air Force
Reserve Command (AFRC) units' transition from a peacetime to a wartime environment
(Gary, “Continueing Challenge”, Written at Znet. Establish policy news network, August 15, 2009, http://www.zcommunications.org/climate-changedrought-and-indias-looming-food-and-water-crisis-by-vandana2-shiva)
I read your commentary with great interest. Like all the other commentary I read in Z, I learned something solid and real, and the entire net is
beginning to help me to think in a different way. The contributing factor to the challenge of climate change is the acsending population growth
worldwide, although some regions such as Western Europe and Russia are experiencing a decline in birth rate,
China, India, Indonisia are growing, maybe not as fast and with some variance here and there. There are
still more than six billion people in the world today. It is expected, if I am not mistaken, that in another generation or so there
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will be ten billion people consuming the finite resources of this planet. India
will outgrow China in population, and expand
[aggressively] agressively as a military power in the region. Food security plays right into this. The ongoing
tension between Pakistan and India over [Kashmir] Kashmire, a food growing area, could lead to nuclear war.
Pakistan is espesially vulnerable and with its' hundred or so nukes faceing India's nukes over the security of
its' share of [Kashmir] Kashmire not to mention its' suspicion of India's increased diplomatic activity in
Afghanistan brings one to take a quick look at history. One does not have to go far back. Take for instance Japan's
rise as an military-industrial power. Because only about 20% of the land in the Japanese Islands could
produce food, and with limited natural resources for industrial exploitation, an expansion onto the Asian
mainland (with Anglo-Euopean-American help) was essential to what they saw as their survival. Today, China is building an
navy designed to eventually dominate the region. India will have five submarines with missile launch capability within
the next few years, and Pakistan has its' own military expansion ongoing. Yet, we are fearful of North
Korea's half dozen or so nukes, because that country is especially hungry.
That risks extinction
Nabi 3
Dr. Ghulam Nabi, India-Pakistan Summit and the Issue of Kashmir, July 13, 2003, p. http://www.pakistanlink.com/Letters/2001/July/13/05.html
The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally
occupied for more than 53 years and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It
has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in 1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys
and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would enjoy no sanctuary.
This apocalyptic vision is no idiosyncratic view. The Director of Central Intelligence, the
Department of Defense, and world experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear
worries. Both India and Pakistan are racing like thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals
and advanced delivery vehicles. Their defense budgets are climbing despite widespread misery
amongst their populations. Neither country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, or indicated an inclination to ratify an impending Fissile
Material/Cut-off Convention.
Fertilizers cause chemical imbalances, increased vulnerability to disease, and
hardpans-All of which destroy the soil ecosystem and overall productivity
Deppner 10
Dave, Executive Director at Future Trees Inc, Florida’s formost company for forestry (“Lessons in Sustainable Land Development, February 16, 2010,
http://www.agribusinessweek.com/lessons-in-sustainable-land-development/)
Besides these physical processes, we also see chemicals that damage soils; primarily in the form of insecticides and fertilizers. Chemical
fertilizers and
insecticides are unsustainable, temporary solutions that rarely improve the quality of the soil. Pesticides often kill many of
the insects and microbes in soils that are needed for natural processes. There are, in fact, many beneficial insects that eat many of the pest insects, but most insecticides
kill everything indiscriminately. Not only are they poisonous and often improperly used, but most pesticides that are banned from use and sale in the United States and
Europe are available throughout the developing world. Furthermore, insecticides get concentrated from smaller insects to the larger animals that eat them, ultimately
poisoning the entire food chain. Alternatives to pesticide use entail (1) giving crops the strength they need to resist infestation by adding nutrients and organic matter to
the soil, and (2) using Integrated Pest Management techniques that ward off and kill insects. Fertilizers also cause
long term damage, and are
often inadequate in their nutrient composition. Soil need rich organic matter in the form of humus,
compost, manure, etc. Commercial fertilizers, often in the form of NPK pellets, contain just nitrogen,
potassium, and phosphorus. These are three of the major nutrients, but there are also plenty of other nutrients –
such as manganese, iron, boron, zinc, and copper – that chemical fertilizers tend not to contain.
Furthermore, rains can immediately leach these chemical fertilizers down through the soil, contaminating
groundwater and forcing farmers to apply more fertilizer every year. I know insecticides are bad, but how do fertilizers damage the
soil? We often see communities using NPK fertilizer in forms such as 10-1-20, 14-14-14, and 20-20-20. These
numbers refer to the portions of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in the fertilizer. Chemical fertilizers
cause at least four major problems in soil and vegetation. Fertilizers kill beneficial organisms that live in the
soil. These include both small microorganisms and larger ones such as earthworms. Chemical fertilizers are
often acidic, which causes the pH of the soil to change, thereby harming organisms that are critical to soil
health. Chemical fertilizers create hardpans in the soil. Hardpans are hard layers that can form naturally or
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WAKE DW
unnaturally under the soil. While microorganisms and organic matter hold healthy soil together, the
chemicals actually break down the soil particles creating a cement-like state, which decreases the soil’s ability
to trap and hold water. Additionally, chemicals applied to crops can seep into surface and underground water supplies, thus contaminating them – a major
concern in rural areas of the developing world that lack treated drinking water. Fertilizers can damage plants’ health because a plant’s
ability to defend itself from bacteria and fungi is directly related to nutrient amounts in the soil. Large
increases in either nitrogen or phosphorus can kill certain beneficial microorganisms that live in the roots of
plant, making them more susceptible to injury and diseases. Sudden, large increases in nitrogen levels,
combined with a lack of trace elements, have been shown to cause diseases in plants. Plants can experience a
deficiency in trace minerals, even if the trace minerals are locally available in the soil. This is because
overuse of chemical fertilizers inhibits the chemical and physical reactions that transfer the trace elements
into the plants through the root hairs. This is all very complicated, and is beyond the scope of this article to explain, but it is a known fact that the
roots of plants can get covered by so many charged particles, such as sodium ions, that they can no longer
absorb the other minerals they need. Green manures are sustainable alternatives to chemical fertilizers. Agricultural crops which received green
manure of Gliricidia sepium (kakawate) yielded 9.5 tons per hectare of corn in Oromia, Ethiopia. A similar yield was obtained from plots which received green manure of
ipil-ipil and Leucaena diversifalia, but a significantly ‘reduced yield was obtained from plots receiving recommended levels of chemical fertilizer. This implies that the use
of multipurpose fast growing agroforestry species as a green manure can boost grain production over levels obtained from chemical fertilizer. Additionally, the
multipurpose species provide the farmer with fruit, fuelwood, fodder and construction wood.
That risks biodiversity and all life on earth
Garner 2
J.H.B., Senior Scientist at the National Center for environmental Assessment, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
(“Air Pollutants, Plants Response, Soil Microbes and Ecosystem Biodiversity”, July 2, 2002, http://isebindia.com/01_04/02-07-1.html)
The importance of soil organisms for plant growth has been recognized for more than a century. Today, greater recognition of the fact that soil
organisms can
influence ecosystem processes has lead to increase in the study of the soil and freshwater, and marine sediments. The soil environment,
which is composed of minerals and organic matter, water, air, and vast array of bacteria, fungi, algae,
actinomycetes, protozoa, nematodes, and arthropods, is one of the most dynamic sites of biological interactions in nature
many of which are microscopic, are unknown. Their ecology is at least as important as the ecology of any community or
ecosystem that has been studied above ground. There is interrelatedness between the aboveground and
belowground ecosystems. Soil organisms (the consumers), depend on aboveground vegetation (the
producers), for the sugars and carbohydrates (carbon compounds) produced during photosynthesis.
Without the soil ecosystem and the microorganisms involved in the mineral nutrient cycles, plant growth,
agriculture, and life in general would not be possible. Soil biodiversity is a crucial factor in regulating how
ecosystems function. Interest in soil biodiversity has increased with the awareness of the fact that many of the most important
interactions between plants take place below ground. Especially in nutrient poor soils, the dynamic interactions
between plant roots, animals and microbial processes appear to determine what grows where and how.
Bacteria and fungi are usually most abundant in the rhizosphere, the area around the root where exudates are most abundant. They benefit from the nutrients
(chiefly simple sugars) exuded by plant roots into the soil. In turn their activities create chemical and biological changes in rhizosphere.
By decomposing organic matter they play an essential role in controlling and making inorganic mineral
nutrients available for plant uptake. Bacteria in the soil are essential in the cycling of nitrogen, carbon,
phosphorus and sulfur. They also assist in making other major mineral nutrients such as potassium, magnesium, and iron
available for plant uptake. Mycorrhizae Fungi, as integral components of soil ecosystems, are involved either directly or indirectly with all other organisms in the soil.
Success of other organisms in the system, and even survival of the soil ecosystem itself, depends on fungal activity. Fungi are a source of food for many soil organisms,
including bacteria, other fungi, nematodes, insects, earthworms and mammals. Fungi
form mycorrhizae, a mutualistic, symbiotic
relationship with plant roots that is integral in the uptake of nutrients and may be one of the most
important and least understood biological associations regulating community and ecosystem functioning,
are formed by fungi attracted by energy-rich carbon compounds in the plant root exudates. The mycorrhizal
relationship is widespread in the plant kingdom and is found in a variety of habitats from the tropics to boreal regions. The majority of plants cannot
take up mineral nutrients and water from the soil and achieve optimum growth and reproduction without
mycorrhizae. The few exceptions are aquatic plants, sedges and members of cabbage family. Most mycorrhizal fungi are obligately dependent on the host for their
energy requirements. In return, their role in the uptake of mineral nutrients, make them essential to plant growth. The fungus-plant root relationship is of particular
benefit to plants growing in nutrient-poor soils. Mycorrhizae
are sensitive to changes in the capacity of host plants to
translocate the carbon compounds to the roots. An indirect effect can occur when the pollutant influences
the allocation of the carbon from the plant leaves and reduces the supply of sugars to the roots. A direct
effect occurs if deposition of the pollutant influences the growth and physiology of the root and reduces its
capacity to absorb nutrients from the soil.
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India is a big player in bio D-It’s one of the few designated “megadiverse” countries in
the world
Gokhale 10
Yogesh, Holds a Doctoral degree in Botany from Mumbai University, Fellow, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI
(“Megadiverse India!”, August 11, 2010, http://www.teriin.org/article_yogesh.pdf)
India is one of the 12 megadiverse countries in the world, commanding 7%-8% of the world's biodiversity
and supporting 16% of the major forest types, varying from alpine pastures in the Himalayas to temperate,
~sub-tropical, tropical forests, and mangroves in the coastal areas. However, the country is facing several challenges with regard to
maintaining its megadiverse status. Dr Yogesh Gokhale analyses India's position from the domestic, as well as international point of view, and finds what the country
needs to do to safeguard its rich biodiversity. Every now and then, we hear news of tigers being poisioned by people for the 'crime' of cattle lifting. But, do you know that
there are people in India who believe that cattle lifting by a tiger is its right? The Madia Gond tribals of Mendha-Lekha, Maharashtra, believe that the act is justified
because humans are living in the tiger's habitat, forcing it to resort to such means of survival. The total area of Mendha-Lekha village is about 1600 ha, of which 80% is
forest. Threat to natural resources and livelihood of the villagers led to the emergence of 'Mawa Mate, Mawa Raj' concept in the village, meaning "in our village, we are
the government': Mendha-Lekha believes in Gram Swaraj (village democracy), based on Gram Sabha (village assembly), and has put in place numerous measures to
protect the environment, such as the creation of a Van Suraksha Samiti (Forest Protection Committee) with the villagers. It is really interesting to see the way the Madia
Gonds have internalized the environment as part of their developmental aspirations. However, cases like this are in stark contrast to those of the city dwellers, who are
completely distanced from nature. For instance, the population of domestic sparrows has been reducing in various cities of India for the past many years. But, there is
each and every living
organism on the earth-that makes up its biological diversity or biodiversity-is quintessential for survival of
the human race and the planet. WHAT IS BIODIVERSITY? Biodiversity is the term given to the variety of life on the
earth and the natural patterns it forms. It is formally defined in the Biological Diversity Act 2002 as "the variability among living organisms from
hardly any concern about this amongst the urban communities. Many cannot even imagine the gravity of the situation. The truth is that
all sources and the ecological complexes of which they are part,and includes diversity within species or between species and of ecosystems': The recent interest in
biodiversity can be traced back to the Rio Earth Summit of 1992, where world leaders agreed on a comprehensive 'sustainaole development' strategy, leading to the
creation of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). CBD establishes three broad goals: conservation of biological diversity; sustainable use of its components; and
fair and equitable sharing of the benefits from the use of genetic resources. India was among the first countries to sign the CBD(on 5 June 1992).Since then, biodiversity
has emerged as a major political rallying point in international negotiations. The most crucial aspect about biodiversity is that this
distribution is not
even across the world. On the one hand, much of the world’s biodiversity is concentrated in the forests of
developing countries. On the other, much of the technology and financial capital that can convert the elements of biodiversity into commercial products rests
with the developed countries. The acknowledgement of conservation and trade importance of biodiversity, along with the associated knowledge, has led to the formation
of political conglomerations of biodiversity-rich nations at the international level and the recognition of the importance of domestic actions of tropical countries for
biodiversity conservation. One such group is Like-Minded Megadiverse Countries (LMMC), made of 17 countries rich in biological diversity and associated traditional
knowledge, mainly developing tropical ones . A
megadiverse country is a country that harbours the majority of the earth’s
species. The LMMC group holds more than 70% of all biodiversity and 45% of the world’s population. The review of world data on species richness suggests that
LMMC group holds the top four positions in the case of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, and higher plants. It is, thus, well recognized as an important negotiating
block in the UN and other international fora. And one
such megadiverse country is India. Megadiverse country With only 2.4% of land area, India
accounts for 7%-8% of the recorded species of the world. After surveying almost 70% of the country’s land area, about 45000 species of
plants and 89000 species of animals have been described till date. It has been estimated that another 400,000 species may still
exist in India which so far remain undescribed! The rich domesticated fauna, with about 60 livestock breeds, 20 goat breeds, and 163,155 accessions in
the national gene bank of domesticated plants are an integral part of Indian culture. Out of the 34 biodiversity hotspots identified so far,
which hold high numbers of endemic species but cover only 2.3% of their combined area of remaining
habitat in the world, India has two hotspots-the Himalays and the Western Ghats. The efforts of in situ conservation in India are mainly concertrade
in 617 procted areas as of 2010. Also, India has 14 biosphere reserves, spread across various bio-geographic zones of the
country. The Sundarbans, Gulf of Mannar, and the Nilgiri are now included in the international network of biosphere reserves, spread across various bio-geographic
zones of the country. The Sundarbans, Gulf of Mannar, and the Nilgiri are now included in the international network of biosphere reserves recognized by United Nations
Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). Also, India has six World Heritage Sites listed by UNESCO. Till date, 25 wetlands have been designated as
Ramsar sites. From the cultural perspective, India has about 40000-50000 endogamous groups of people, suggesting a very high level of diversity of languages, culture,
knowledge of ecosystems, and so on. More than 400 000 practiioners of traditional medicinal systems in the country use 80% of the plant-based raw material for making
durgs. With
the wide variety of terrain and the climatic conditions, which range from permanent snowfields to
tropical coastlands; from areas of virtual desert in the North west to fertile, intensively cultivated rice fields
in the North East, India has been classified into 10 biogeographic regions. The unique geo-physical and
hydro-climatic conditions represented by these zones are instrumental in the evolution of the rich
biodiversity of this country. The wild and domesticated biodiversity is distributed along the global biodiversity hotspots, centres of domestication of
domesticated species of plants and animals, protected areas, community conserved areas, and so on. Considering the overlapping priorities of biodiversity conservation
in India, various efforts have been undertaken using processes such as the hotspot science . One
of the major foci of the hotspot science is the
uniqueness of the region in terms of species diversity restricted to specific areas (endemism) and special
ecosystems. Interestingly, as recent as in 2009, a large number of species were discovered in India’s biodiversity hotspots. While 20 new faunal species were
discovered from the Western Ghats, 37 were found in the Himalayas. Similarly, 41 new species of plants have been reported in recent times from different parts of the
country. Here are some more conservation measures used by the country to protect its rich biodiversity
Biotech and bioinformatics are key to a newer, more sustainable “gene” revolution in India which
ensures long term food security, and increased quality of life
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WAKE DW
Prakash 2k
Professor in Plant Molecular Genetics and Director of the Center for Plant Biotechnology Research at Tuskegee University
(C.S., “Gene Revolution and Food Security”, Agbioworld, March 2, 2000 http://www.agbioworld.org/biotech-info/articles/agbioarticles/revolution.html)
A revitalised Indian agriculture can be the engine of growth and biotechnology can provide the needed fuel,
says C S Prakash. India's greatest achievement in the past century has been its ability to increase its food
production and thus keeping the Malthusian fears at bay. Nevertheless, we still face daunting challenge of
hunger, poverty and malnutrition that will only get worse as the population increases in absolute numbers.
Recent advances in crop science, however, provide us with a new window of opportunity to deal with the issue
of food security. Genetic engineering is clearly the most revolutionary tool to impact agricultural research
since the discovery of genetics by Mendel. Sensible integration of biotechnology in research can accelerate the
pace of agricultural improvement and is of considerable relevance to an agrarian country like India.
Transforming India's agriculture is critical not only to deal with the issue of hunger and poverty but also to
strengthen the sector that is so fundamental to India's existence. The 'green revolution' is showing signs of
fatigue and farm productivity increases are now flattening. There are serious constraints to productivity in Indian agriculture because of
small holdings, the subsistence nature of farming, vagaries of the weather, limited water, poor land condition and stress factors such as drought, heat and saline soil
conditions. Much of the crop yield is lost due to disease, pests, and weeds while a considerable proportion of harvested fruits and vegetables are spoilt during
transportion and storage. There
is thus an urgent need to reinvigorate agricultural research to address crop
productivity issues by redesigning crop plants to benefit the farmer and the consumer, and also to develop
innovative 'value-added' agricultural products to enhance the revenue base of farming. Profitable farming not only
enhances the quality of life in rural India but will also help limit the urban sprawl due to migration and its attendant environmental problems. Beyond crop
productivity, there is also a need to address the larger food and environmental issues. A revitalised Indian
agriculture can be the engine of growth for the 21st century, and biotechnology can provide the needed fuel .
When deployed in a sensible and responsible manner , modern biotechnological tools such as genetic improvement of crops can
advance India's agriculture to address 'head-on' the challenge of feeding its increasing population with its
limited economic, land and water resources. India cannot afford to lag behind in critically examining these new technologies and making them
available to its farmers under suitable safeguards. Most experts say that the greatest promise of biotechnology is in its
application in developing countries like India and China because of their high reliance on agriculture, large farming
areas, low crop yield and the urgency for food increase and economic revitalisation. Developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina,
China and Chile have already made considerable economic advances by integrating biotechnology into their
agricultural programmes. Others such as Cuba, Egypt and South Africa are also following close behind and clearly see biotechnology as a means of
advancing their economies in an accelerated manner . India can, therefore, ignore biotechnology only at its own peril.
Biotechnology can be a boon to Indian agriculture in may ways. Crop damage can be minimised through
disease- and pest-resistant varieties while reducing the use of chemicals. Conventional plant breeding has
little ammunition to deal with these problems in an expedient and effective manner. India also has serious problems of
blast in rice, rust in wheat, leaf rust in coffee, viruses in tomato and chillies and leaf spot in groundnut across the country. These problems can be
significantly minimised in an ecologically-friendly manner with the development of genetically
reprogrammed seeds designed to resist these disease attacks, while minimising or even eliminating costly
and hazardous pesticide sprays. Genetic modification can also address the problems of shoot borers in brinjal and okra, caterpillars in pappadi
(Dolichos) beans, and of course, the boll wormin cotton which resulted in the tragic suicides of hundreds of cotton farmers. India is the third largest producer of cotton in
the world (after China and the US). Although cotton occupies only 5 per cent of the country's land, nearly 50 per cent of all pesticide used in india is bought by cotton
farmers alone at a staggering cost of Rs 16 billion annually and with incalculable impact on the environment and human health. Development
of cotton
varieties with resistance to pests thus can enhance the welfare of Indian farmers, while helping both the
India economy and its environment. New genome technologies along with bioinformatics will further
propel Indian agriculture into a new era where complex traits such as photosynthetic efficiency and crop
yield can be enhanced. Geneomic tools with esoteric names such as 'DNA Chips', 'Gene Shuffling' and
'Director Evolution' are already making an impact on biomedical research enabling the discovery of new
drugs and rapid disease diagnostics, and will surely impact agricultural research. With no more arable land
available for agricultural expansion in India, enhancing stress tolerance in crop plants will permit
productive farming on currently unproductive lands. Abiotic factors such as drought, heat, cold, soil salinity
and acidity cripple Indian crops seriously constraining their growth and yield. One could extend the
growing season of crops and minimise losses due to environmental factors. The shelf life of fruits and vegetables can be prolonged
to reduce losses to food spoilage, expand the market vista and improve food quality. There has been much human misery caused by
hazardous substances in many Indian food crops
such as the presence of neurotoxin in kesar dal, cyanide in tapioca, aflatoxins in groundnut and antimetabolites in chickpea, horsegram and sweet
potato. Biotechnology has the capability to 'silence' these undesirable traits and thus improve the quality of
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these 'humble' food crops so critical to the nutrition of disadvantaged and resource-poor consumers. Prolonged
'vase life' of cut-flowers will help broaden the market for horticulturists, while reducing losses and minimising their dependency on expensive cold storage. Human
and livestock health can be improved through crops with enhanced nutritional quality traits such as ironrice and vitamin A-rich rapeseed oil, and through the production of edible vaccines and other
pharmaceutical proteins. Crops with industrial applications such as those producing enzymes, 'designer'
starch and oils, biodegradable plastics and industrial chemicals can also be developed to reinvigorate the
Indian economy and create jobs. Crop plants that can clean up soil, water and air through
'phytoremediation' can be developed and planted in critical areas. Trees that grow faster with fewer disease and pest problems can
be developed with positive impact both on the rural economy and the environment . The strategic integration of biotechnology tools into
Indian agricultural systems can revolutionise Indian farming and usher in a new era in the countryside.
Compared to the 'green revolution', the 'gene revolution' is relatively scale-neutral, benefiting big and small
farmers alike. It is also environment friendly. Thus, it can be of great help to the smallest farmer with limited resources, in increasing farm
productivity through the availability of improved but powerful seed. It can also reduce his dependency on chemical inputs such as
pesticides and fertilisers. India unequivocally needs the help of such technologies to march into the next
century with a vision for economic upliftment and prosperity for its two-thirds of populace dependent on
farming.
The genomic analytical power of bioinformatics makes it key to an Indian gene revolution
Sankar 3*Abbreviation
Dr. R. Sankararamakrishnan is an Asstt Professor in the Department of Biological Sciences and Bioengineering. His predoctoral studies were at the
Indian Institute of Science. He received post-doctoral training in computational biology at Universitiy of Oxford and University of Illinois, UrbanaChampaign. He was serving as a Research Asstt Professor at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York before joining the Institute in April, 2002
(“Bioinformatics in Post-Genomic Era”, 2003, http://www.iitk.ac.in/directions/oct03/genomic.htm)
Bioinformatics involves the application of information technology to the management and analysis of
biological data such as the sequences of nucleic acids in genes and amino acids in proteins. On average, the biological
databases are doubling in size every 15 months. As a result of this surge in data, computers have become indispensable in biological
research. This is evident from the huge increase in the number of papers published in the area of "Bioinformatics". Most bioinformatics analyses focus on
three primary sources of data: DNA or protein sequences, macromolecular structures and the results of
functional genomics experiments. Recently M. Gerstein of Yale University has submitted a definition of "bioinformatics" to the Oxford English Dictionary. According to
his definition, "Bioinformatics is conceptualizing biology in terms of molecules (in the sense of Physical Chemistry) and applying informatics techniques (derived from disciplines such as applied
bioinformatics is a
management information system for molecular biology and has many practical applications". The
applications of bioinformatics include predicting genes from genomes, identifying coding and non-coding
regions, predicting protein structures and protein-protein interactions. This article will attempt to cover some of these applications. Prof.
maths, computer science and statistics) to understand and organize the information associated with these molecules, on a large scale. In short,
Sarkar's article "The Human Genome: The Book of Life" which appeared in the November 2000 issue of "Directions" gives further details about various aspects of human genome project. Gene
Prediction It was initially believed that humans might require 100,000 genes to perform the complex functions. The total number of predicted genes for laboratory fruit fly and for a simpler
organism Caenorhabditis elegans are ~13,600 and 19,000, respectively. After the first draft was published in June 2000, the groups that sequenced the human genome found evidence for only
30,000 to 40,000 genes. However, these estimates have been recently revised, and it is now suggested that humans possess ~70,000 genes. Traditionlly, genes were cloned, sequenced and
experimentally characterized one-gene-at-a-time, allowing determination of the function of the gene products with a high level of confidence. Now with the whole-genome sequences available,
identifying genes from novel genomic data is a classical problem in bioinformatics. Several gene prediction algorithms are available from the public domains. Abinitio gene prediction methods are
based on general properties and characteristics of protein-encoding genes with simple statistical measures. Neural network and dynamic programming approaches are used in these methods.
Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have used pattern recognition techniques in predicting genes. Other approaches to gene finding are based on homology to known genes. The homology-based
methods search novel DNA sequences for coding regions similar to any known protein. An assessment of various gene prediction methods concluded that the sensitivity of ab initio methods remains
high and they generate over predictions. When a gene and its function are predicted, there is no way of knowing how accurate the assignment is. Thus gene identification and annotation constitute
the first step of the global reconstruction of the puzzle defining a living thing. This reconstruction addresses various biological aspects, including the overall genome organization, the interaction
network linking proteins, metabolic pathway, structure of the cell and the evolutionary history of the species. Gene Expression Gene expression studies have focused on devising methods to cluster
genes by similarities in expression profiles. This is in order to determine the proteins that are expressed together under different cellular conditions. Advances in the production of genome-scale
expression data have created tremendous opportunities and challenges in the elucidation of individual gene modulation, patterns of coordinate expression among individual genes and ultimately
genetic networks. This progress has stimulated the exploration of a number of algorithms and visualization tools. These methods include hierarchical clustering and self-organizing maps. In
hierarchical methods, genes with most similar expression profiles are clustered first and those with more diverse profiles are included iteratively. This method is derived from algorithms to
construct phylogenetic trees. In self-organizing map, the user pre-defines the number of clusters for the dataset. The clusters are initially assigned randomly and the genes are regrouped iteratively
until they are optimally clustered. The expression data profiles are related to structure, function and subcellular localization of each gene product. Mapping these properties provides an insight into
the characteristics of proteins that are expressed together and also suggest some interesting conclusions about the overall biochemistry of the cell. Comparative analysis of gene expression data can
be extended to tumor cells, in which the underlying causes of cancer can be uncovered by pinpointing areas of biological variations compared to normal cells. One of the difficulties in cancer
treatment has been to target specific therapies to pathogenetically distinct tumor types, in order to maximize efficacy and minimize toxicity. For example, subclasses of acute leukaemia were
successfully distinguished based on the expression profiles of the cells. As the approach does not require prior biological knowledge of the diseases, it may provide a generic strategy for classifying all
types of cancer. Proteins and Proteomics With the accumulation of vast amounts of DNA sequences in databases, researchers are realizing that merely having complete sequences of genomes is not
sufficient to elucidate biological function. The inevitable inventory of genes produced by the genome projects heralds the start of a new era: Age of proteomics. Although DNA is the blueprint for life,
it is the set of proteins that are actually transcribed and translated that determine the function of a particular cell. In 1975, the invention of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis allowed protein
biochemists to cut isolated spots out of a gel and sequence their amino acids. In mid 1990s, the gradual appearance of protein identification methods used nascent DNA and protein databases to
analyze mass spectra of protein fragments. Preliminary studies suggest an average number of protein forms per gene of one to two in bacteria, three in yeast and three to more than six in human
beings. Thus a human body may contain more than half a million proteins and these proteins undergo modification by addition of specific carbohydrate chains or phosphorylation. The field
proteomics is defined as characterization of all proteins and is the large-scale study of the complete protein complement of the cell, tissue or organism. The major challenge now to biologists is to use
the wealth of genetic information available from the genome sequencing programme not just to decode the amino acid sequence of the encoded protein, but also to find out their function. MultipleSequence Alignments Genomics-based approaches initially use computer-based similarity searches against proteins of known function. The results may allow some broad inferences to be made
about possible functions, which can then be explored experimentally. Multiple sequence alignments have been traditionally used to deduce structure / function by homology, to detect conserved
motifs in protein structures and in phylogenetic studies. Multiple alignment programs have used dynamic programming technique, Hidden Markov Models, stochastic techniques such as Simulated
Annealing and Genetic Algorithms and iteration techniques. In recent alignment programs, information other than the sequences themselves is now being incorporated into the multiple alignment.
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(For an example of multiple sequence alignment see box on page 9). Homologous proteins are both sequentially and structurally similar and advances in sequence database search methods have led
to the detection of more and more distant homologues. The multiple sequence alignment reveals evolutionary constraints existing at particular sequence patterns that conserve residues or their
physico-chemical properties and thus allow a straightforward detection of conserved structural motifs, localization signals or key functional residues that characterize a family or sub-family of
proteins. Molecular phylogeny studies have relied on multiple alignments to define phylogenetic relationships between organisms. In the post-genomic era, phylogenetic studies can now address the
entire proteome of organisms widely scattered across the phylogenetic spectrum. Proteins are long chain molecules (polypeptide chains) and they can adopt infinite variety of conformations, each
corresponding to a unique set of values for the various peptide backbone rotation angles. Professor G.N. Ramachandran, and his colleagues from University of Madras in 1963 investigated this
problem and discovered that many of the hypothetical conformations can be excluded from considerations on the basis of steric overlaps. His findings, popularly known as Ramachandran map
(shown in left), have revolutionized the understanding of protein's three-dimensional structures. Structural Genomics Analysis of genomic sequences in organisms for which genomes have been
sequenced seem to code "hypothetical proteins" that cannot be related to other proteins of known function or structure. Understanding the physiological function of the protein products of these so
called "orphan" genes has emerged as a major challenge. Three-dimensional structural information of the proteins provides insights into biology by elucidating the relatedness to proteins of known
biological function, which could not have been arrived by sequence alone. Structural information can also identify binding motifs and catalytic centers even for proteins without a known biological
function. From the structural features, catalytic mechanisms, protein-protein associations or protein nucleic acid interactions could be predicted or proposed. Unfortunately, to date, only a small
fraction of known proteins and even fewer number of hypothetical proteins have had their structures solved by classic crystallographic methods or by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR)
spectroscopy. The structure of the protein is characterized by its folds. Many researchers believe that a limited number of protein folds (1000 to 5000) exist in nature. It is predicted that all these
folds can be revealed by examining approximately 10,000 unique proteins. Recently, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) of the National Institutes of Health sponsored a
protein structure initiative to determine the three dimensional structures of thousands of proteins within a decade. This $150 million pilot program could lead to the solution of up to 10,000 crystal
structures in the next 10 years. In contrast, only 2000 unique structures have been determined in the past 40 years of research. It is hoped that improvements in protein isolation, protein
purification, crystallization and X-ray diffraction could turn the vision of structural genomics initiative to reality. Identification of potential binding motifs and catalytic centers of proteins with no
clear function from have already shown promises using structural genomics approach. One such example is Histidine Triad (HIT) family of proteins. HIT proteins were identified through genome
analysis, from a large ubiquitous family, but as yet have no known specific biological function. These proteins are believed to be involved in cancer. Structure solution of several HIT family members
identified common structural motifs, which were used to identify a catalytic center and nucleotide-binding sites. These structural studies showed that HIT family of proteins belong to the class of
enzymes called nucleotide hydrolases and even enabled identification of compounds that could inhibit catalytic function of the HIT proteins. Computer Modeling Although technological advances
have occurred in crystallography and NMR, these methods cannot keep demand to know the structures of all proteins. Efforts to bypass these methods have led to the advancement of computational
modeling approaches. Computational modeling utilizes predictive and comparative methods to fashion a new protein structure. Ab initio methods use the physicochemical properties of the amino
acid sequence of a protein to literally calculate a 3D structure (lowest energy model) based on protein folding. These methods use one or a combination of molecular dynamics, molecular mechanics
and quantum mechanics techniques to describe atomic and molecular states interactions. In homology modeling, the structural and functional characteristics of known proteins that share many of
the sequence features ( > 30 percent identity) are used as a template to create a hypothesized structure for an unkown protein with similar functional and structural features. Threading is essentially
a small-scale form of homology modeling based on the realization that there are a limited number of structural folds that define the structure of a protein in its native and most energetically
favorable state. The individual folds serve as precise descriptors and the resulting collection of protein folds is a essentially an encyclopedia that describe each of the structural motifs a protein may
adopt. These fold libraries are used by threading algorithms to create a theoretical structure of a protein. The importance of modeling techniques is further highlighted by the fact that the majority of
the experimentally solved protein structures belong to the category of water-soluble proteins. Membrane proteins that are imbedded within the membranes constitute the second major category of
proteins and it is estimated that about 30 % of genes may encode membrane proteins. Integral membrane proteins participate in important physiological functions and are implicated in major
diseases. These proteins are difficult to crystallize and as a result only a handful of membrane protein structures are available at atomic resolution. In the mid 1980s, the structure of the first integral
membrane protein, photosynthetic reaction center, was solved and subsequently this work was awarded with Nobel prize. Structures of the potassium channel and rhodopsin are the most recent
major breakthroughs. Potassium channel is the first channel protein to have a 3D structure determined in atomic resolution. Rhodopsin belongs to the class of G-Protein Coupled Receptors
(GPCRs) whose transmembrane segments traverse the membrane seven times. GPCRs constitute vast group of cell-surface proteins that includes hormone, neurotransmitter, growth factor, light
and odorant receptors. In the absence of experimentally available structures, computer modeling techniques are the most important tools to study the structure-function relationships of these
proteins. Computer Simulations The three-dimensional structures of the proteins are only the beginning towards understanding the biological functions of the proteins. X-ray crystallography gives a
snap-shot of the protein structure and it does not reveal the full picture. In many of proteins, the adequate explanations of the mechanisms of a protein's functions come from the molecular
simulations that define the force fields surrounding the proteins. The approaches used in the simulations are molecular mechanics, molecular dynamics, Monte Carlo and quantum chemical studies.
The importance of these approaches can be illustrated by the recent simulations studies on potassium channel protein. Nearly all cells have membranes spanned by potassium-conducting channel
proteins. Potassium channels catalyze the ionic movements required to generate and shape electrical signals in neurons. In other words, without these channels, our nerves simply would not work.
The crystal structure showed a narrow 'selectivity filter' in which dehydrated potassium ion (but not sodium ion) fits precisely. Molecular dynamics free energy simulations revealed the ion
permeation mechanism in this channel protein even before the support came from experiments in the form of X-ray work. Simulation studies combined with the crystallography structures offer
fundamental insights into the physical chemistry of ion conduction in biology. These studies show how ions are coordinated in the selectivity filter; they revealed the nature of potassium ions in
transit between the channel and the aqueous solvent; and they indicate the character of water in the cation's inner hydration shell. Drug Discovery One of the earliest medical applications of
bioinformatics has been in aiding rational drug design (See accompanying article by B. Prakash). Only a small fraction of the human genes from human genome will be amenable to therapeutic
intervention. It has been estimated that the number of proteins that are drug targets is probably 5,000 to 10,000. The majority of the targets are receptors such as GPCRs and enzymes. In fact, more
than 50% of prescription drugs act on GPCRs. Computer-aided drug design (CADD) involves the design of potential drugs based on structure, physical and chemical constraints and parameters
between the drug ligand and its target, a protein. This "rational drug design" methodology has been a very powerful tool in pharmaceutical research, where drug development has traditionally been a
hit-or-miss process of blindly testing compounds that may or may not interact with a protein. Using CADD methods, researchers can now model drugs to a specific set of criteria. When combined
with combinatorial chemistry methods, scientists can dramatically increase their chances for a hit. Recent advancements in CADD include the introduction of evolutionary techniques, such as
genetic algorithms and fitness functions. Genetic algorithms induce spontaneous atomic changes to create new molecular species, while fitness functions ascertain the chemical survivability of the
new species amongst the pool of biochemicals. Gene expression studies with the help of bioinformatics may be used to hunt for new antimicrobial targets. Identification of proteins produced by
microorganisms is facilitated by the small number of genes and the completion of genome sequencing for many microorganisms. The main aim of most studies has been the search for new
diagnostic markers, candidate antigens for vaccines and determinants of virulence. For some of the microorganisms studied, two-dimensional electrophoresis databases are available on the internet.
Myobacterium tuberculosis is probably the most studied microorganism. Tuberculosis still causes more than 2 million deaths each year, so an international priority is to improve diagnosis and
develop a more effective vaccine. The current BCG vaccine varies in efficacy from almost zero protection in southern India to about 70% protection in the UK. Examination of genetic differences by
genomic analysis has been helpful in identifying the potential regulators of virulence. Such studies may also provide the basis for discrimination between BCG immunization and the presence of
virulent tuberculosis. Protein three-dimensional structure is a key to understand the function of the protein. For example, structures of HIV protease (shown in left) are used to understanding the
ligand-binding properties and in the designing of new drug molecules that can bind the active-site much more efficiently. Bioinformatic Tools The heart of bioinformatics analyses is the software
and the databases upon which many of the analyses are based. Traditionally bioinformatics software required high-end workstations (desktop to mid-range servers) with a multitude of plug-ins
and/or peripheral equipment and a user (administrator) willing to routinely download database updates. Modern experimental technologies are providing seemingly endless opportunities to
. The drive to capitalize on this enormous pool of information in
order to understand fundamental biological phenomena and develop novel therapeutics is pushing the
development of new computational tools to capture, organize, categorize, analyze, mine, retrieve and share
data and results. Most current computational applications will suffice for analyses of specific questions using relatively small data sets. Object Management Group (OMG), a software
generate massive amounts of sequence, expression and functional data
standards organization have come up with CORBA, a middleware that mediates between different languages, information sources and analysis tools, each with its own way of representing data and
methods. CORBA interfaces for methods and XML, the souped-up version of HTML, for data formats, implemented in an open source environment. Dr. Shankar Subramaniam's group at University
of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign (now in University of California , San Diego) has developed "Biology Workbench" with which one can access all publicly available databases. With access to a
networked computer, biologists can use the bioinformatics tools provided by this workbench in a point-and-click mode. But to expand scientific horizons, to accommodate larger and larger data sets
Intelligent
integration with other data domains, such as chemical and clinical, is the ultimate goal. Future of Bioinformatics in India
The draft of human genome by the public consortium is a culmination of work done from several countries. Although developing nations have to catch up in
genome research, significant progress is being made in this area. Notably, Brazil has recently published the
genomic sequence of the plant pathogen Xyllela fastidiosa that causes a range of plant diseases. It causes serious
diseases to orange trees, an economically important factor for Brazil. India is home to a large number of
indigenous populations and it is enviously positioned with this rich diversity of gene pool. Genomic studies
and bioinformatics offer ways to improve healthcare and the quality of life. With its excellent scientific talents, India
can identify and focus on specific areas of national importance. In inter-disciplinary areas such as
bioinformatics, collaborations between different groups within India and abroad should be established . In order
to access the databases scattered throughout the world, scientists working in the area of bioinformatics need fast internet connections. With its world-class software
skills, much needed bioinformatics tools can be developed in India. Following the "green revolution",
indeed a "gene revolution" has to take place in India.
and to find patterns and see relationships that span temporal and spatial scales, new tools that broaden the scope and complexity of the analyses are needed.
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Impact-Chinese War
U.S.-Sino war causes extinction
Hsiung 1
James Hsiung, professor of politics and international law at NYU, 21ST CENTURY WORLD ORDER AND THE ASIA PACIFIC, 2001, p. 359-60
But decision-makers cannot afford such luxury. Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s Senior Minister, issued a grave warning presumably directed at all government leaders,
including the United States, that the Taiwan power kege could ignite a conflagaration that would engulf the entire region. It
might even embroil
the United States in a nuclear holocaust that nobody wants.
Often-times, well-meaning analysts raise the question
whether China, with its present military capability and modest defense expenditures (about U.S. $15 billion annually0, can or cannot take Taiwan by forces. But this is the wrong question to
pose. As the late patriarch Deng Xiapoing put it, “We rather have it proven that we trade but failed [to stop it[ even by force, than be accused [by our disgruntled compatriots and posterity] of
not trying to stop Taiwan from going independent.” Earlier, I raised the issue of stability within the U.S.-China-Japan triad, precisely with the U.S.-Japan alliance in view. Apparently, many
in Japan have apprehensions about the stability. Japanese Nobel laureate (for literature) Ohe Kenzaburo, for instance, once told a pen pal that he was fearful of the outcome of a conflict
Because of its alliance relationship, Japan would be
embroiled in a conflict that it did not choose that might escalate into a nuclear holocaust.
From the ashes of such a nuclear conflict, he figured, some form of life may still be found
in the combatant nuclear giants, China and the United States, But, Kohaburo argued,
there would be absolutely nothing left in Japan or Taiwan or in the conflict’s wake.
between the United States and China over the question of Taiwan.
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Impact-Russian War-Extinction
A US-Russian war is the only scenario for extinction. Such existential risks outweigh diseases,
world wars, and smaller nuclear wars.
Bostrom ‘02
(Dr. Nick, Professor of Philosophy and Global Studies at YALE, "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios
and Related Hazards," 3-8-02, http://www.transhumanist.com/volume9/risks.html)
Risks in this sixth category are a recent phenomenon. This is part of the reason why it is useful to distinguish them from
other risks. We have not evolved mechanisms, either biologically or culturally, for managing such risks.
Our intuitions and coping strategies have been shaped by our long experience with risks such as
dangerous animals, hostile individuals or tribes, poisonous foods, automobile accidents, Chernobyl, Bhopal, volcano
eruptions, earthquakes, draughts, World War I, World War II, epidemics of influenza, smallpox, black
plague, and AIDS. These types of disasters have occurred many times and our cultural attitudes towards risk have been
shaped by trial-and-error in managing such hazards. But tragic as such events are to the people immediately
affected, in the big picture of things – from the perspective of humankind as a whole – even the worst
of these catastrophes are mere ripples on the surface of the great sea of life. They haven’t
significantly affected the total amount of human suffering or happiness or determined the long-term
fate of our species.
With the exception of a species-destroying comet or asteroid impact (an extremely rare
occurrence), there were probably no significant existential risks in human history until the midtwentieth century, and certainly none that it was within our power to do something about. The first manmade
existential risk was the inaugural detonation of an atomic bomb. At the time, there was some concern that the explosion
might start a runaway chain-reaction by “igniting” the atmosphere. Although we now know that such an outcome was
physically impossible, it qualifies as an existential risk that was present at the time. For there to be a risk, given the
knowledge and understanding available, it suffices that there is some subjective probability of an
adverse outcome, even if it later turns out that objectively there was no chance of something bad
happening. If we don’t know whether something is objectively risky or not, then it is risky in the
subjective sense. The subjective sense is of course what we must base our decisions on. [2] At any given
time we must use our best current subjective estimate of what the objective risk factors are.[3]
A much greater
existential risk emerged with the build-up of nuclear arsenals in the US and the USSR. An all-out
nuclear war was a possibility with both a substantial probability and with consequences that might
have been persistent enough to qualify as global and terminal. There was a real worry among those
best acquainted with the information available at the time that a nuclear Armageddon would occur
and that it might annihilate our species or permanently destroy human civilization.[4] Russia
and the US retain large nuclear arsenals that could be used in a future confrontation, either
accidentally or deliberately. There is also a risk that other states may one day build up large nuclear arsenals. Note
however that a smaller nuclear exchange, between India and Pakistan for instance, is not an
existential risk, since it would not destroy or thwart humankind’s potential permanently.
Such a war might however be a local terminal risk for the cities most likely to be targeted. Unfortunately, we shall see that
nuclear Armageddon and comet or asteroid strikes are mere preludes to the existential risks that we will encounter in the
21st century. The special nature of the challenges posed by existential risks is illustrated by the following points: ·
Our
approach to existential risks cannot be one of trial-and-error. There is no opportunity to learn from
errors. The reactive approach – see what happens, limit damages, and learn from experience – is unworkable. Rather, we
must take a proactive approach. This requires foresight to anticipate new types of threats and a willingness to take decisive
preventive action and to bear the costs (moral and economic) of such actions. ·
We cannot necessarily rely on the
institutions, moral norms, social attitudes or national security policies that developed from our experience with managing
other sorts of risks. Existential risks are a different kind of beast. We might find it hard to take them as seriously as we
should simply because we have never yet witnessed such disasters.[5] Our collective fear-response is likely ill calibrated to
the magnitude of threat. ·
Reductions in existential risks are global public goods [13] and may therefore be
undersupplied by the market [14]. Existential risks are a menace for everybody and may require acting on
the international plane. Respect for national sovereignty is not a legitimate excuse for failing to take
countermeasures against a major existential risk. ·
If we take into account the welfare of
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future generations, the harm done by existential risks is multiplied by another factor,
the size of which depends on whether and how much we discount future benefits [15,16].
Russian causes extinction
Caldicott 3
Caldicott, head of Physicians for Social Responsibility, 2003 [Helen , The Asheville Citizen-Times, November 16, p. lexis/nexis]
Caldicott: I agree. Anyone can make their own nuclear weapon if they can steal some plutonium, and it's all around. The desig n is on the Internet. You can buy stuff in
your local hardware shop and make your own bomb. Cities will be blown up, but I am talking about the end of creation. There's a huge
magnitude of difference between blowing up New York or Dehli or Seoul or whatever and destroying the only life in the universe. And that is what we have got to get into
our brains to understand that and that's what we're about to do any second of any day .
You need a thousand bombs to cause
nuclear winter and the end of life on Earth. There are only two countries now that can do
that and there only ever will be because it costs an awful lot to build a thousand bombs and
deliver them. Only two countries are threatening life on the planet -- Russia and America.
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