IDARA WP 12: STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AREAS IN HUNGARY Prepared in an international Vth framework project supported by the European Commission Coordinated by the University of Bonn With the co-operation of the following academic institutions: Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration, Hungary Imperial College, London University, United Kingdom National University of Galway, Ireland Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Czech Republic University of Warsaw, Poland Revised version, utilised the comments of a seminar with agricultural policy makers held at the Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration, on 12 November 2002 BUDAPEST 2002 1 INDICE 1. Forewords 4 2. Situation description – Diagnosis 6 a) Transition process ........................................................................................................ 6 Institutional framework in a historical overview ..................................................... 6 Regional and rural development in a historical overview ........................................ 7 b) New framework conditions with EU accession ........................................................... 8 Regional- and rural development after 1990 ............................................................ 8 Rural- and regional development issues ................................................................ 10 Agri-Food Industry in the Hungarian Economy .................................................... 11 Role of Food-industry in the Development of the Agriculture and Rural Areas ... 31 3. Key issues – identifying priorities 36 a) National level ................................................................................................................. 36 b) Regional level ................................................................................................................ 40 Rurality in Hungary ............................................................................................... 40 Rurality and the statistical system .......................................................................... 41 Why on sub-regions’ level? ................................................................................... 42 The first classification of sub-regions .................................................................... 43 Analysing the situation from the first classification .............................................. 44 Analyses of rural areas by five sub-region classes ................................................ 46 4. Measures contributing to solving problems in priority areas a) 48 Scenarios – structured in policy areas breakdown ..................................................... 48 Income diversification............................................................................................ 48 POLICY SIMULATION ....................................................................................... 51 Comparative analysis of agricultural policies by fapri, oecd and idara forecasts .. 52 Trend based expert opinions .................................................................................. 57 Results of the simulation........................................................................................ 59 b) Strengths and weaknesses .......................................................................................... 64 Main results of the Hungarian case-studies ........................................................... 64 c) Experience in EU15 ......................................................................................... 72 5. integrated strategy a) 86 Optimal Policy Mix ................................................................................................... 86 Policy proposals for Hungary ................................................................................ 86 b) 2 Institutional setting .................................................................................................... 93 The present institutional framework of rural and regional development – division of responsibilities ............................................................................................................... 93 Actual situation of the Hungarian implementation system of EAGGF ................. 98 Co-ordination of the development of agricultural administration system ............. 99 Main tasks of the EAGGF Paying Agency ............................................................ 99 Delegated tasks and the tasks of the paying agency system ................................ 100 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... 103 6. Literature 103 7. References 103 Appendix: IDARA plus: QA for agricultural sector models ........................................... 106 Appendix: Check list for iterative modelling................................................................... 107 Appendix 1: Population and settlements in Hungarian subregions ................................. 108 Appendix 2: Active earners and unemployed people in the Hungarian subregions ........ 109 Appendix 3: Public utilities in the Hungarian subregions ............................................... 110 Appendix 4: enterprises in the Hungarian subregions ..................................................... 111 Appendix 5: Trade, tourism and services in the Hungarian subregions .......................... 112 Appendix 6: Agriculture in the Hungarian subregions .................................................... 113 Appendix 7: Non-agricultural activities in the Hungarian subregions ............................ 114 3 1. FOREWORDS The aim of this research project is to identify key problems and discuss strategies for an integrated development of Agriculture and Rural Areas in the first group of CEEC accessing the EU. The research has started in February 2000, and will be closed in January 2003. The cooperating institutions (indicated in the cover page) are elaborating the project. The project has three main topics: i) impact of rural development policy (led by the National University Galway), ii) competitiveness, non-agricultural income and farm enterprise diversification (led by the Imperial College, London University) and iii) simulation model of policy implication (led by the University of Bonn). The research was to identify problems and device formulas for integrated development of rural areas. At present, integrated rural development policies and especially, the supporting institutional structures are mostly lacking. Most rural areas will undergo substantial agricultural adjustment and this will inevitably result in an increasing outflow of labour. Agricultural diversification can play a key role to stimulate local economic development. Finally, both the labour outflow and the income situation of households, central to a rural development strategy, will depend directly on agricultural production and price developments. Against this background, and in light of these major interdependencies, this research project has embraced a comprehensive approach. The project aims to improve the understanding of three interdependent areas that have not been adequately addressed so far by research, namely the identification of adequate policy measures and institutional structures for the introduction of an integrated rural development policy in the CEEC, a thorough analysis of agricultural diversification patterns and its potential role in rural development, and finally the development of a simulation model that allows a comprehensive estimation of the impact of different policy measures on agricultural production, budget and income and, in turn, its consequences for rural development strategies. More precisely, the combined research to be undertaken by the project will cover four main tasks, namely: 1. Identification of key rural development problems and analysis of the most effective and efficient policy measures and delivery structures, as well as the adequate institutional framework to support rural development. 2. Analysis of competitiveness and diversification at farm and household levels, by compiling and analysing data on competitiveness indicators, farm income sources and enterprise diversification activities, which are compatible with the EU concepts. This will help, among other things, to identify the potential of farm diversification to contribute to rural economy in the CEEC. 3. Development of a simulation model for the CEEC compatible with the EU SPEL/MFSS, that permits EU and CEEC policy-makers to estimate the impact of a variety of policy measures on production, consumption, net trade, income and budget. 4. Enhancement of co-operation between EU and CEEC researchers and transfer of know-how to the CEEC with a view to support the enlargement process. To this end, CEEC partners will be closely involved in all research activities and will be responsible for the integration of research results (see below). The Hungarian team was based on the Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development of the Budapest University of Economic Sciences and Public Administration. Staff members and PhD students also participate in the project. The following division of labour was made: rural development issues by Prof. Sándor Elek, competitivity and diversification by Prof. Gyula Módos and Prof. Maria Sebestyén-Kostyál, policy simulation model by Prof. László Pitlik. 4 Here should be mentioned that the latter issue was elaborated by the team of the St. Stephan University, Gödöllő. The head of the Hungarian team is prof. Tibor Ferenczi. The work could not be done by the great contribution of PhD students in all of the cooperating universities. In the Hungarian team the following participation was very significant: Ákos Borbély, Ákos Németh and Péter Csillag (rural development), Barna Kovács, Tamás Mizik, Gábor Harsányi and Zoltán Győrfi (competitivity and diversification), László Bunkóczi, Mária Pásztor, István Pető and Attila Popovics (policy simulation). From foreign institutions, a great contribution was given to the current pages by Hannah Chaplin, PhD student of the Imperial College, London University. The international project is co-ordinated by Prof. Wilhelm Heinrichsmeyer. The most significant contribution was received by the following foreign partners: Dr. Udo Bremer, ing. Tanja Möllmann, and ing. Kai Bauer from the University of Bonn; Dr. Sofia Davidova, Dr. Matthew Gorton from the London University, Prof. Michael Cuddy and Ms S. Callanan, Dr. Tomas Ratinger from the Czech Institute of Agricultural Economics and Prof. Jerzy Wilkin from the Warsaw University. 5 2. SITUATION DESCRIPTION – DIAGNOSIS a) Transition process Institutional framework in a historical overview Rural development is a rather new term in Hungary, which became widely used after the reorganisation of ministries held by the Independent Peasants’ Party in 1998. Previously most policies, which could be termed as ‘rural’ have been managed by the regional development administration. Still today the bulk of the policies having influence on rural territories is managed and administered by the regional development bureaucracy. Thus the analysis will frequently refer to ‘regional development’ policies and institutions because they too play an important role in rural development. During communism regional and spatial development was organised by a centrally driven, administrative planning system. The central and the county (NUTS 3) level shared responsibilities; however, the former controlled the power. As a consequence of the vertical planning mechanism policies were arranged along sectoral lines. Political and sectoral objectives were superior to regional concerns in government policies. Moreover the pervasive, command and control economic and political regime provided a solution for certain problems itself (e.g. unemployment, subsistence). Other concerns of today’s regional and rural policies were either completely disregarded (environmental issues) or, conversely, the objective was the very opposite (e.g. depopulating the small villages, eliminating rural cultural heritage). This was mainly the reason why regional (let alone rural) policy as such was not emphasised on the institutional level. With the Act on Local Governments in 1990, local municipalities got back their independence, resources and responsibilities. The hierarchical system was replaced by a structure in which there was no hierarchy between local governments of different sizes and the county selfgovernment. It was in 1990 when the Ministry of Environment and Regional Development, regional development policies gained a separate institutional system for the first time. A Regional Development Fund (RDF) was also created. At the same time a number of civil organisations and NGOs were set up, such as voluntary associations of neighbouring villages, development agencies and organisations for environmental conservation. The next significant change came in 1996 with the introduction of the Act on Regional Policy and Physical Planning. This legislation was assessed by the EU, and deemed the most progressive in Central and Eastern Europe. The EU's decision was based on principles and regulations that fulfil the requirements for accession. The legislation created a multi-level, decentralised institutional system for regional development and initiated the creation of larger (NUTS 2) regions, in addition to traditional levels of planning. A positive feature of the new Hungarian regional development institutional structure is that it triggered a decentralising tendency throughout the entire public administration system. It provides a framework for co-operation between different levels and sectors and it also offers solutions to certain disfunctions in the administration and spatial management. This legislation was very advanced; however, its implementation was far from sufficient. After the elections in 1998, the institutions, resources and responsibilities for regional development were taken away and placed into the new 'super department', the Ministry of Agriculture and Regional Development (MARD). However, not only this institution, but a range of other ministries, regional, local authorities, organisations and NGOs were involved in issues 6 connected to rural development, constituting a highly complicated and sometimes overlapping system. The reason for this entanglement, amongst others, is that the last decade was a period of continuous change in the institutional system for rural policies. In 1999, the Act on Regional Policy was modified, aiming at a more centralised and possibly better implemented policy. Also in that year, preparation for pre-accession programmes (e.g. SAPARD) started, new units within MARD were set up, a system of rural micro-regional associations, covering almost the entire country was further developed and a range of rural and regional development plans of different levels were written. It is important to understand that, the balance and work of institutions is still very fragile in Hungary. There are overlaps and uncovered areas. The change of government, or even of a single minister, can result in the shift of directions and values and the actual change of many officials in the ministries and other public institutions, even on lower levels. This makes the work of bureaucracy fragile and often interrupted, causing dysfunction in the entire system. Regional and rural development in a historical overview Regional development policy – rural development prior to 1990 The problems of Hungarian rural development are largely rooted in past decades. To the detriment of villages (small villages in particular) a centralising policy was in force for decades, which drew resources away from the countryside. As soon as rural regions and villages were able to achieve some development, then infrastructure development driven by economic and administrative rationalisation led to the abandonment of economic and social institutions in the majority of small villages. By reorganising institutions on the district level they were practically shut down in minor settlements. Consequently emigration and the ageing of the population began. The majority of villages lost their own selfgovernance, schools and as a result of forced co-operative mergers their economic potential too. Consequently the assets of those living there devaluated. On the other hand the reform of agriculture from the second half of the sixties (coupled with the authorisation and subsequent booming of supplementary agricultural activities) led to a notable improvement in the income situation of the rural population, which was particularly considerable in major villages with a favourable transport location. Farming traditions and favourable natural endowments were also an advantage. This controversy (favourable agricultural but detrimental settlement policy in respect of the countryside) however has somewhat softened in the second half of the eighties. Institution mergers were no longer forced on the districts level. At the same time the profitability of agricultural production deteriorated even though the former anti-agricultural and anti-household-farming measures were practically abolished. The financial austerity measures, which were introduced to tackle state indebtedness (with no political intention) led to a worsened situation of those in agriculture and in the countryside in general. In fact, neo-liberal economic policy has been detrimental to agricultural and rural population in all countries including the US and developing countries too. An interesting aspect about these belt-tightening measures in Hungary was that they had a positive impact, namely that they lead to lower concentration. (This is presumably because liberalisation has different implications in non-market driven or semi-market driven economies than in developed market economies. Where the evolution of regional differences had been governed by state re-distribution and not by market forces the reduction of state re-distribution results in the equalisation of resource allocation rather than the polarisation of it.) Although the decisive role of 7 the National Planning Agency along with various party and council bureaucracies survived until the late eighties in the allocation of regional development funds, these funds substantially decreased from the beginning of the eighties. Consequently the earlier allocation mechanisms prioritising towns and industrial centres halted, their resources run out. This was the primary reason why the improvement of rural regions’ capacity to keep their population at place became an objective of regional policy. At the same time the austerity measures necessitated by Hungary’s foreign debt service appreciated agriculture. In fact, without agricultural exports the declaration of insolvency seemed to be inevitable. Until the mid-eighties the symptoms of the sector’s crisis did not manifest. Emigration to towns therefore slowed down. Those migrating to towns preferred to move to nearby (minor) towns. The so-called second economy (that is, outside the planned socialist economy) became universally part of family’s subsistence strategy. As it was typically arranged through informal channels it was advisable to retain family and acquaintance connections. In parallel urban problems started to emerge. State financed large-scale housing construction started to downsize and later completely ceased. It became more and more obvious that individual prosperity requires participation in the second economy. To acquire a flat was only possible by ones own means. Regional development policy has also changed somewhat. Albeit the system of 5-year plans remained unchanged, from 1985 a new method was elaborated for the development of underdeveloped regions: target areas were designated on the basis of statistical indicators and support was allocated through tenders. The sum appropriated for this purpose was managed as a separate fund. Although these changes were promising, they did not induce a basic re-arrangement. The so-called settlement-development contribution (which can be regarded as a forerunner of local taxation) could have inspired taxpayers to take control of local authorities, however its primary impact was limited to raising funds. The system of councils remained practically intact, but the election system and the political and administrative supervision of local councils became a bit looser by the end of the decade. Local initiatives were launched and the parliament passed the Act on Associations, which triggered the establishment of societies, clubs and other organisations mainly in towns. By the end of the decade the intertwined administrations remained however unchanged in their position even if their confidence and scope of competence decreased. b) New framework conditions with EU accession Regional- and rural development after 1990 The position of regional development changed after the election of the new government in 1990. The National Planning Agency and the Construction and Urban Development Ministry ceased to exist passing the responsibility for regional development to the newly established Ministry of Environmental Protection and Regional Development (MEPRD). Despite, in the first years the position of regional development became marginal. The resources of the new ministry were rather scarce. Supervision of local municipalities belonged to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, whereas that of their economic management to the Ministry of Finance. Besides, the attention of MEPRD was focused on the management of environmental problems. It was around 1992 when the need for a more pronounced regional development policy started to outline. By this time the intensification of regional differences (particularly that of unemployment) was tractable in everyday life too, crisis regions emerged. The 8 need for a governmental management of this situation somewhat increased the importance of the ministry. The Municipality Act of 1990 had an epochal significance both in respects of political affairs and the regional system, pursuant to which municipalities regained their independence, their resources and their scope of responsibility. The former hierarchical system was replaced by a new structure, where lower level municipalities are no longer subordinated to those on the upper level. Local municipalities are not subordinated to county-level municipalities, those of the districts of Budapest to the metropolitan municipality. The Regional Development Fund (RDF) was also established. Meanwhile a number of civil organisations and NGO-s were founded, such as voluntary associations of villages, development offices and environmental protection groups. The role of counties was partially maintained in the public administration system, although with substantially less authority. Partly due to legal regulations, but it is even more due to their limited role in resource allocation. As a new institution, the Republic Delegate Offices were set up. Their activities and scope of competence extended to 2-3 counties, as an intermediary administrative unit they foreshadowed the organisation of regions larger than counties. Their leaders were appointed by the government, ranking as a state secretary. Due to this and to their rivalry with the counties the parliamentary opposition condemned this institution. In regional administration nevertheless the most important change was to be the widening of local municipalities’ authorisations and the strengthening of their role in public administration. The centralisation policy and process of past decades reversed. Many of the villages previously bound together in district notaries regained their administrative independence, whereas district notaries comprising 5-10 villages were split into 2-3 parts. (A major is however elected even in the smallest village.) In the beginning of the nineties local municipalities were allocated more substantial funds than previously, which they could utilise at their own discretion, according to their own objectives. It had an almost symbolic significance, that even the smallest village received HUF 2 million annually from the central budget. It was a visible sign of de-centralisation that a number of elementary schools were opened again in the villages. Nonetheless the everyday life of rural people was more directly determined by the terms of agricultural transformation and its consequences. The intensity of the crisis varied from region to region. Consequently regional differences increased and became particularly problematic in the north-eastern counties. To handle this phenomenon the allocation mechanism of the subsidies financed by the Regional Development Fund was improved. The identification of regions eligible for support was carried out in a professionally and sound manner. Further, programs were elaborated for the development of under-developed individual regions. After 1994 however restoration tendencies started to work in regional administration. The role of counties became important again and due to the austerity package in 1995 the resources of local municipalities were substantially cut. When taking such measures the government often referred to the requirements posed by EU accession. The Regional Development Act of 1996 was also considered as a step in this direction. The Act established a multi-tier, decentralised organisational system for regional development and besides conventional levels of planning it also laid the foundation of larger regions. Although the Act represented a progressive notion its details and implementation left much to be desired. In fact, the Act introduced a number of organisational devices unparalleled in EU practice. One of these was to make Regional Development Councils of the counties an important institution in regional development. Although these council were established with reference to the partnership principle, they were corporate bodies in fact. If they had wanted to transform these organisations 9 into programme accepting bodies following the EU pattern, then a different device should have been chosen. In fact these councils were reluctantly accepted to be an elected, representative body of the region albeit it was one of the preconditions of getting access to EU funds. Another deviation is that in the EU backward regions are determined on a territorial level much bigger than Hungarian counties. The classification of such types of regions is currently in progress. Public bodies actually representing constituents’ interests are yet to be founded. Nevertheless it is without a doubt, that the Regional Development Act of 1996 defined the types of prioritised, underdeveloped regions similarly to the former (prior to 2000) practice of the EU’s structural policy: Socially and economically backward regions (similar to objective 1 regions of the EU) Regions of industrial transformation (similar to objective 2 regions of the EU) Regions of agricultural rural development (similar to objective 5/b regions of the EU) Regions hit by high unemployment (similar to objective 3 regions of the EU) In 1998, regional development organisations, resources and responsibilities devolved on the reorganised Ministry of Agriculture and Regional Development (MARD). In 1999, the Regional Development Act was amended so as to create a more centralised and manageable policy. In the same year preparation for pre-accession schemes (such as SAPARD) began, new departments were established within the MARD and a series of rural- and regional development plans have been completed. At the same time, due partly to government policy, partly to civil initiatives the system of micro-regional associations further developed throughout the country. Rural- and regional development issues Rural development was first touched upon in the Regional Development Act of 1996. Taking it to the extremes one can say that it was completely ignored on the governmental level until the mid-nineties. Moreover, since the second part of the eighties rural development related policies, departments and jurisdiction - which became increasingly important in the agricultural ministries of Western European countries - were driven out of the Ministry of Agriculture. (e.g. non agricultural employment, development of rural infrastructure, preservation of traditions, landscape and natural environment, village renewal, community development etc.) The official argumentation behind this process stated that agricultural policy has nothing to do with such social matters. By contrast one major task of agricultural policy is to get rid of them. What was the reason for such a development, which ran counter to EU practice? One factor was certainly the different nature of agricultural transformation. Further, the structure of agriculture was basically different, together with local population. Middle class migration to the countryside was less common. Therefore this social group could hardly play a role in orienting agricultural policy towards rural policy. Differences in the appropriation of budgetary resources between the ministries provide another reason. In the EU countries the task is identified first, the support and the distributing institution is decided subsequently. By contrast in Hungary until 2000 rural development tasks and funds were not separated from those of agriculture. Therefore following the acceptance of the ministry’s budget the agrarians aimed to utilise as much as possible for conventional agricultural subsidies even though they used ‘rural’ as an argument in the budget-bargain. (they did it with much success). If agricultural and rural development grants had been separated in the budget, then the ministry had not intended to curb rural development subsidies. Rather, it would have demanded the task and competence for itself. 10 From the mid-nineties, agrarians -though reluctantly- started to accept that rural development can no longer be ignored in the course of EU accession. In December 1995 (when the Strategic Study on Agriculture was submitted to the Madrid EU summit) sceptics and those in opposition must have been convinced too. The EU commission declared unequivocally in this document its priority to rural development policy and the transformation of the agricultural structure in the accession process of candidate countries against conventional forms of agricultural subsidisation, which is also on a downward trend in its own countries. This standpoint appears even more pronounced in the Agenda of 2000. The figures included in this document suggest, that associated countries might receive community funds for rural development and agricultural modernisation even before their membership. Of course in accordance with the structural support schemes of the EU and only if they conform to their procedural methods. In Hungary the distinction between rural and regional development has been a problem however. It might also explain why the scope of the agricultural ministry was extended in such a way as to include regional development in addition to rural development. As a result there are perhaps still some who do not understand the EU policy, which makes rural development a part of agricultural policy and not a part of regional development. Agri-Food Industry in the Hungarian Economy The agricultural sector in all its aspects – agricultural production, forestry, the agri-food industry and related services – has traditionally been of major importance to the Hungarian economy. It ensures the domestic food supply, is an essential provider of employment, an important contributor to Hungary's foreign exchange earnings, and is a dominant factor in rural development. The agri-food sector is the only major sector in which Hungary is a net exporter. Share of Food Industry in the National Economy (%) 996 Gross output 1 997 1 998 1 999 1 000 2 8 7 7 6 6 ,6 .8 4 GDP ,0 3 ,7 4 Investment ,6 ,5 ,5 5,2 3 4 4 1 2,9 3 ,5 4 ,1 1 0,5 ,4 ,3 ,3 3 3 4 4 ,5 ,2 ,2 ,4 1 Exports ,4 ,6 4 4 Number of employed ,4 4 ,0 8 ,0 6 ,9 Source: KSH (2002) Agriculture and the food industry have been affected by a change of enterprise classification between sectors, which partly explains the abrupt cut in the share of agriculture between 1990 and 1991, together with a steep increase in the food industry’s share. Another factor was the splitting-up 11 of the co-operatives and state farms. Non-farm activities, which traditionally represented more than 40% of their activities, have generally been taken out of the reorganised farms and in general no longer count as part of the agricultural economy. The 1990-1993 recession was worse for agriculture than for Hungary’s economy overall: the cumulative fall amounted to - 31% for agriculture against - 18% for the whole economy. The agricultural recession of 1990-93 was mainly caused by: the collapse of traditional markets in the former Soviet Union; an unfavourable development of the terms of trade the fundamental restructuring of land ownership; the reorganisation of farms; the immediate and delayed effects of abnormal droughts. Recovery has been visible since 1994, and has been faster for food sector than for the economy in general. External trade of the Hungarian food industry Although in a decreasing scale, the excess profit coming from foreign trade does strengthen the commercial balance of national economy. Against the 2290 million USD export there was 981 million USD import in 2001 showing a positive balance of more than 1,3 billion USD. Regarding export structure, the European Union plays an important part but in liberalization of the bilateral trade there are yet unsolved questions at several products. There is an energetic opening towards the Central and Eastern European Countries while the effects of the Russian crisis in 1998 impending foreign trade are slowly coming to an end. Share of food in the external trade of the national economy (million USD at current prices) Exports Years Imports National Food economy 12,867 1995 National % Food economy 2,596 15,466 2 815 0,2 15,704 1996 2,385 19,100 18,148 1 2,468 816 23,005 21,234 1 2,424 896 25,013 25,706 1 1,994 960 28,092 28,008 8 1,951 12 -2,444 4 1,569 -2,134 4 1,572 -2,701 3 1,464 849 -2,996 3 1,146 -3,988 2 1,072 ,0 32,079 6 0,9 1,781 0,7 ,0 2000 -2,599 5 0,2 0,5 1999 Food 0,5 2,9 1998 National % economy 0,3 5,2 1997 Balance 880 0,7 30,498 2001 2,290 33,682 7 981 -3,184 2 0,5 1,309 0,9 Source: KSH, Food, beverages, tobacco. Value of external trade according to (SITC Rev.3. 0+1) We succeeded in getting new markets and the Hungarian relations with the overseas countries are being continuously enlarged. Leading edge in foreign trade is unbrokenly represented by Germany, Russia, Austria and Italy but as a consequence of the constantly growing turnover also Romania came up to them. Majority of the turnover is still provided by meat products but also fodders, fruits, vegetables and cereals are given more and more emphasis in the foreign trade arena. Worsening tendencies of the role played by the food sector in the national economy during the 1990s seems to stop, it touched the bottom-line and according to figures in 2001 a moderate growth can be seen. Exports of food by groups of countries (% in value) 1996 1 997 Developed countries 52,7 Central and Eastern European countries 42,8 1 998 1 999 2 000 2 001 4 6,9 4 9,5 5 4 5 0,9 5 4,0 4 7,2 4 3,5 4 0,2 4 3,7 4 1,9 Developing countries 2,6 4 ,0 5 ,3 4 ,8 4 ,5 4 ,1 Other 2,0 1 ,9 1 ,7 1 ,1 0 ,9 0 ,0 Of which EU 46,3 4 0,9 4 3,5 4 8,8 4 4,3 4 6,4 OECD 59,3 5 4,8 5 7,9 6 4,2 6 0,9 6 0,8 EFTA 1,8 2 ,0 2 ,0 2 ,4 2 ,1 2 ,5 CEFTA 12,6 1 3,8 2 0,6 2 2,1 2 2,2 2 1,2 CIS 20,0 2 0,7 1 4,8 8 ,1 1 0,9 8 ,6 Source: KSH, Food, beverages, tobacco. Value of external trade according to (SITC Rev.3. 0+1) 13 Foreign Trade of Foods (Million USD) Meat, meat preparations (SITC Rev.3. 01) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Export 691 798 792 678 595 590 Share in total food export (%) 26,6 33,5 32,1 28,0 29,8 30,2 Import 77 38 63 78 26 52 Share in total food import (%) 9,4 4,6 7,0 8,1 3,0 5,9 Dairy products, eggs (SITC Rev.3. 02) 1 995 1 996 6 Export 1 7 9 2 Share in total food export (%) ,3 8 ,4 9 4 4 4 4 95 ,8 1 ,8 200 0 6 ,6 4 4 ,7 1 3 3 1 999 12 ,2 3 3 Share in total food import (%) 7 3 9 1 998 9 ,3 2 Import 1 997 4,9 3 45 6 4 ,3 4 ,3 5,1 Cereals (SITC Rev.3. 04) 1 995 1 996 5 Export 85 1 80 2 Share in total food export (%) 2,5 6 ,4 3 2 5 5 297 1 6,4 2 ,3 200 0 26 0,0 4 6 ,1 4 1 8 1 999 85 6,7 5 4 Share in total food import (%) 4 7 0 1 998 12 ,6 3 Import 1 997 15, 2 6 65 1 5 ,4 7 ,2 7,4 Vegetables, fruits (SITC Rev.3. 05) 1 995 1 996 5 Export 74 5 68 2 Share in total food export (%) 2,1 39 7,1 14 4 2 1 23, 3 1 153 36 1 5,0 454 2 3,5 44 1 5,6 200 0 68 1,3 1 1 5,7 5 2 40 1 999 16 1,6 1 1 Share in total food import (%) 5 2 28 1 998 32 3,8 1 Import 1 997 1 6,0 17, 3 Beverages (SITC Rev.3. 11) 1 995 1 996 2 Export 59 2 34 1 Share in total food export (%) 0,0 0 ,7 1 9 1 7 2 5 2 3 5,1 2 30 9 2 ,8 99 ,5 7 ,0 200 0 10 ,1 7 3 ,3 1 7 2 1 999 71 ,3 7 3 Share in total food import (%) 1 998 80 ,8 3 Import 1 997 3 ,5 3,4 Source: KSH (2001d), Food, beverages, tobacco. Calculations based on SITC Rev.3. 0+1 The competitiveness of the Hungarian food industry The privatisation starting earlier in comparison with other parts of the national economy satisfied the expected results. Capital injection, westernise market view, positive effect of strategic thinking striving for long-lasting efficiency appeared in most industry sectors. Obtaining property by foreigners dominated in case of the big companies (obviously differently by each sector) and promoted the more efficient, modern tools and forms of food processing and sale, which are more adaptable to market demand. These new instruments are still used today. The called-up capital of foreigner active capital investments exceeded 60 per cent in the average of food-industry in 1999. This dominance also manifested itself in the obtained results. The process of privatisation however does not come to the end. In certain industries, such as the milling industry, new investors, buyers will modify the existent market conditions in the near future. Share of foreign investors in Sales Turnover and Issued Capital Stock of some food activities, 1998 Products Share in Turnover (%) Sales Share in Stock (%) Issued Meat processing, preservation 31,8 36,9 Poultry processing, preservation 44,2 27,8 Meat and poultry preparations 57,1 48,3 Potato processing 73,9 84,2 Fruit and vegetables juice 35,7 53,7 Fruit and vegetables processing 42,0 55,1 Oil 98,2 98,8 Margarine product 54,4 34,6 Diary products 51,5 61,8 Preparations of cereals 13,7 14,9 Capital 15 Sugars 99,8 47,0 Sugar confectionery 81,3 94,5 Tea, coffee 97,7 99,4 Spices and stock 64,0 17,2 Wine 5,1 18,7 Spirits 35,2 44,7 Brewing 98,5 92,9 Soft drinks 83,3 97,2 92 88,1 50,8 67,8 Tobacco Total food products Source: Szabó, M. (1998) Although the defencelessness of the food industrial firms appeared on the producers’ side too (but it can be balanced by long-term contracts and private productions), the biggest pressure came from retailing owned by multinational firms. The costs of entering chains, the extra expenses relating to live up the claimed quality expectations, the continuous promotional activities, which are essential for staying in competition led to the fall in the rate of profit. For the equalization of these marketing methods also spread in the food industry, which serve the more efficient distribution of goods, shorter stockpiling time and more attractive supply of goods. In this way they can decrease the incurring expenses to be able to make much higher profit. The most important objective of the programs, improving the agricultural sector on the markets of the EU, is raising the competitiveness of the Hungarian food products. The preparation for the attachment is on a good way also on the level of organisation, institutional regulation, and economic policy. Due to the foreign capital, most sectors of the food industry is now ready for the attachment, while some sections of agriculture are currently not competitive on the EU markets, because of lack of capital, low technological standards and the shortcomings of adopting EU-conform regulations. So the requirements are to match the supply structure to market demand, spread the more popular cultures, and increase the rate of suitable products that are processed on a higher level, well packed, and permanently meet market demands. Having observed the changes of food terms of trade it indicates an improving tendency of the years 1999 and 2000; although the continuous fall of the past few years give an explanation for the turning of tendency. Since in 2000 the prices of both export and important increased significantly compared to 1999, it still can only be spoken about the mark-up of export prices –but they have not reached the former level yet. 16 Unit value indices of external food trade by groups of countries and main international organizations (Previous year=100,0) 19 96 11 Total 9,2 9,7 0,3 10 11 10 112,1 10 109,3 97, 118,8 99, 114,6 10 108,1 10 109,6 10 112,4 99, 110,1 10 108,9 95, 114,3 10 108,9 10 107,6 10 108,0 10 106,1 10 101,8 3,1 4,1 3,4 2000 1,2 10 11 11 7,9 4,1 6,8 6,3 19 99 10 11 2,6 13 Developing countries 19 98 Export 11 3,0 11 Developed countries Central and Eastern European countries 19 97 5 10 1,1 3 of which 11 EU 112,7 9,9 7,6 11 OECD 9,6 11 2,8 12 CEFTA 10 1,6 2,2 10 6,6 11 2,3 1,0 10 2,2 1,7 Import 12 Total 4,2 12 Developed countries 4,0 4,8 4,9 11 12 12 1 1,6 2,6 6,4 10 7,9 11 12 Developing countries Central and Eastern European countries 11 7,7 1,2 10 1,4 11 3,1 7 11 3,3 1,0 of which 12 EU 4 11 3,2 12 OECD 3 11 4,1 13 CEFTA 4,4 11 0,2 1,6 11 1,3 11 1,7 1,9 11 3,0 1,0 Terms of trade 95, Total 9 96, 0 96, 4 2,1 17 96, Developed countries 5 98, 1 10 Developing countries 4,3 Central and Eastern European countries 94, 8 93, 3 95, 7 10 2,6 10 0,2 10 100,3 10 103,9 98, 105,2 10 100,4 99, 101,5 10 105,9 1,8 1,8 89, 2 3 of which 96, EU 7 99, 5 97, OECD 2 98, 8 90, CEFTA 5 97, 6 0,6 95, 7 10 0,5 1 90, 4 0,7 Source: KSH (2001), Food, beverages, tobacco. Calculations based on SITC Rev.3. 0+1 The branch specific structural change of the food industry is absolutely necessary for the improvement of competitiveness after the EU attachment. The examinations of foreign trade and price competitiveness proved that the competitiveness of the Hungarian food industry is more favourable than the countries waiting for joining. But the significant foreign active capital inflow the taking over of the western management methods the use of new strategic methods do not indicate immediate recovery from trouble. To help to understand the problems, I introduce the historical background of some sectors, the agricultural connections, the background of materials the role in export-import, the process of the organisational transformation and the shortcomings that could be corrected in order to increase competitiveness. Top 20 Hungarian Food Companies, 2001 R Name of the company Net sales (m Ft) ank in 2001 1 Philip Morris Magyarország. 92305 . 2 Unilever Magyarország 84129 6258 2 3 Rt Pick 77694 . 6081 5 4 Pécsi Dohánygyár BAT 77384 . 2896 8 5 Nestlé Hungária 46438 . 3494 6 6 Bábolna Rt. 18 6564 7 . . in 2000 43504 3937 8 7 Reemtsma Debreceni Dohángyár 41679 8 Nutricia Rt. 40878 n.a. . . 4607 6 9 Cereol Növényolajipari Rt. 40752 . 4397 5 1 Coca-Cola 40286 0. 3684 5 1 Borsodi Sörgyár 32707 1. 2009 9 1 Dreher Sörgyárak 30535 2. 1963 5 1 Hungrana Keményítő és Izocukor Gyártó 29991 3. 2287 0 1 Union Brau 29773 4. 1949 7 1 Zwack Unicum Rt. 26621 5. 2298 9 1 Foods Sága 26198 6. 2408 1 1 Bábolna Takarnányipari Premix Kft. 23906 7. 1870 2 1 Kometa 99 Kft. 22107 8. 1769 6 1 Fővárosi Ásványvíz- és Üdítőipari Rt. 21333 9. 2112 0 2 Pápai Hús 21303 0. 1934 5 Source: Ecostat (2001) The postponement of the structural change of certain branches mostly gives an explanation for the differences of their present competitiveness and preparedness. The way of privatisation, the foreign capital inflow and the organisational structure (as the starting point of the change), typical in the end of the 80’s were determining factors for the measure of the concentration degree. In the branches possessing the greatest foreign share in called-up capital (e.g.: soft drinks, tobacco, bier, sweets), where significant investments had been carried out the process of structural transformation have ended at the acquisition and so a few large companies own the biggest part of the market. In contradiction to this low concentration characterises the still changing branches (e.g.: meat, poultry, vegetable, fruit, milk) that separates foreign interest differently by each company. Situation of Food Branches in Hungary Process of transformation Number of Level of financial Rate of concentrationc Share in output 19 till 2002 companies in 2000a investmentsb of food industry in 2000a Meat processing unfinished 6 7 fluctuating low Poultry processing unfinished 4 0 fluctuating medium Meat and poultry preparations unfinished 2 7 fluctuating Vegetables, fruits unfinished 7 8 fluctuating Dairy prod. unfinished 4 2 fluctuating 2 27 fluctuating 5 significant Cereals, milling industry unfinished Sugar unfinished 12,6% 8 ,9% high 3 ,7% low 8 ,3% medium 1 2,3% low 1 7,7% high 2 ,7% Sugar confectionary Spirits Wine finished unfinished unfinished finished Beer 2 3 significant 1 0 fluctuating 3 5 fluctuating 6 significant high 2 ,9% high 1 ,4% low 2 ,6% high 4 ,7% Soft drinks Tobacco finished finished 2 1 significant 6 significant high 4 ,8% high 4 ,2% Vegetable oil finished 1 significant high 0 ,5% a Source: Mezőgazdasági Statisztikai Évkönyv (2001), companies above 20 empl. b Capital investments c If max 3 companies gives the total turnover of the sectors than high, 4-6 than medium, above 6 than low (according to ACNielsen, 2001–data of retail companies). The trend of outstanding of the small- and medium-sized companies can be observed, if we compare the share at the concentration degree of certain product categories and their commercial brands. Small and medium firms (obviously large companies too): with small capital but reliably producing good quality, sell often anonymously their products to chains of the food industry, who will sell those under private label. It is worthy for both participants, since it assures a continuous order in large amount for small firms and the 20 chains use the products for their brand policy, image-building and for the increase of the customers’ loyalty. Concentration and the share of private labels in some food categories in 2001 (Market share in value %) Categories C R2 C R3 4 Rice 4,9 5 0,3 3 Tinned vegetable 3,0 0,4 3 5,6 4 7,2 3 3,9 7,9 0,6 5 6,0 4 0,9 8 8,5 5 7,2 6 8,7 7,8 1,7 8 6 10,5 5 9,8 8 9,6 6 9,3 7 5,9 5 5,0 8 4,9 7 4,5 7,2 6 4,8 14,1 7,6 4,2 5 Coffee 3 6,2 4 7 Tea 15,8 7,3 8,5 3 Cheese 4 7,9 9,4 5 Cornflakes 16,2 7,8 7,8 5 Mineral water 4 8,3 9,4 8 Margarine 22,6 7,6 8,3 4 Cottage cheese 4 6,0 3 4 Fruit juice 25,8 8,5 7,1 2 Muesli 5 2,0 7,0 3 Butter Share of Private Labels 3,9 9,8 4 Noodles C R4 6,1 Source: data of ACNielsen (2001), CRx-Sum of share of the first X companies. The privatization and restructuring process has not led to farm structures in Hungary breaking up. Large-scale farms remain important while, besides traditional very small-scale production, a new individual, independent, middle-scale, commercial agriculture is appearing. This 21 rather smooth evolution and the diversity of emerging structures can be considered as a positive factor. However, there are still structural problems: the investment capacity of the different farm types is rather low: low self-financing capacity, lack of efficient long-term credit system; the control of land use is not always well established: corporate ownership is not allowed, private ownership is limited, the land market is not operational. The rapid restructuring and modernization of the food industry, largely under the influence of foreign capital, represents a favorable factor for Hungarian agriculture. In medium-term, this could also reduce the need for export subsidies, in line with the GATT commitments. The share of household income spent on food is still high and food expenditure is therefore sensitive to income levels. Thanks to increasing incomes, the domestic demand for food is gradually recovering, and its structure is also changing. Foreign Direct Invesments The share of foreign property in the subscribed capital of the Hungarian food enterprises has reached 60% in 1999 (KSH, 2001), which is by far above the national average. Analyzing the FDI-flows among world-regions between 1995-1999, it can be seen the EUcountries of overriding importance: they give nearly 60 % of in- and outflow of direct investment. From EU towards Candidate Countries flowed out yearly average 8,56 billion euro FDI, from which 21% to Hungary, about 1,8 billion euro FDI. 1995-1999 Average Yearly FDI Flows In billion EUR and Share (%) in World Total A 7 (1%) sia 1 Japa 8 0 (2%) (2%) n E 7 9 (2%) FTA (2%) 5 Candi date Countries 1 1 1 (2%) (1%) 0 (2%) 4 U 0 E 5 (9%) SA ,3 (0%) U-15 9 9 6 1 (18%) (2%) 1 entral Can A merica S outh 22 28 (25%) 5 C 0 (2%) ada 1 (1%) A merica (1%) Source: Passerini (2001). World total (yearly):EUR 501 Bn (Source: UNCTAD) The FDI inflows from EU to the CCs region are concentrated in Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. However, their share has registered a reduction in the period considered (82% in 1995 and 73% in 1999). The reduction of the share of investment in Hungary has exceeded the increase for Czech Republic and Poland during the same period. Data show growing trend continued in 2000, with Poland in particular increasing FDI inflows (EUR 10 Bn in 2000, nearly twice the average of the corresponding values of the previous three years). This trend was driven, in particular, from the advancement of the privatisation process, nearly completed in 1999. FDI-inflow to Hungary in 2000 surpassed by 15,5% the previous year’s one, and by 17,6% the 1998’s degree. For many years it can be observable the tendency of an increase in the number and share of exclusively foreign owned enterprises, while a decrease in the mixed owned ones. FDIs in Hungary between 1996-2000 (million euro) 2500 2000 2135 1922 1815 1815 1849 1603 1500 1759 1567 1426 1260 1000 555 388 376 319 500 202 0 1996 1997 FDI 1998 Shares 1999 2000 Credits Source: GKM (2001) 23 For many years Germany had been leading the rank of the direct investors, following by Holland with continuously increasing share (Holland preceded Germany in 2000, its share reached 29%). Leaving US out of consideration the most important investors derive form EUcountries (Germany, Holland, Austria, Great-Britain, France), of which investment disposition are on the increase year by year due to the relatively stable political and economical environment, moreover to the cheap and well-qualified labour force. The rank of investors can be explained by the economical power, the extensive international activities, the geographical nearness and the traditional trade relations of each country, in case of Holland by the importance of food industry. Foreign Investments in Hungary by countries of origin between 1992-1999 (%) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Germany 18,5 28,5 22,2 24,6 23,8 24,8 27,4 27,3 Holland 8,9 5,6 11,1 10,5 9,5 14,6 15,9 22,5 USA 12,4 21,0 14,3 16,0 17,1 15,2 12,0 8,8 Austria 25,1 15,8 19,1 15,9 14,5 10,9 12,1 12,1 Great-Britain 4,9 3,9 4,5 3,8 5,8 7,6 6,4 1,9 France 5,1 4,8 5,1 8,1 7,8 5,8 6,0 6,2 Italy 3,2 3,9 4,7 3,8 3,8 3,4 3,0 2,7 Switzerland 4,3 2,0 3,9 2,9 2,3 2,6 3,1 2,5 Belgium 2,9 3,2 2,1 3,1 2,6 2,9 2,6 2,2 Japan 2,6 2,6 1,9 1,3 1,6 1,5 1,8 2,0 Other 12,1 8,7 11,1 10,0 11,2 10,7 9,6 12,0 Total 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 Source: KSH (2001) The privatization processes started in 1989 involved with different foreign capital investment in the different branches. Besides the adopt of privatization techniques carried out in variable way, among others the compensation of lack of capital, the development of external partnership, financial reorganization, launch of the effective technologies became the uniform requirements. The foreign capital took part in the privatization process of food industry took place mostly until middle of 90’s with more and more bigger ratio. The reasons for this were the significant export potential and the share on the external market of the food industry. In addition it 24 has to mention among motivation factors the expansion strategy of multinational companies towards East-Central Europe, the low costs (raw material, wages etc.), the support of economical environment, the new consumer behaviors and needs, the portfolio expansion or the chance of buying of the brand names (e.g. Hungaricums). According to the subscribed capital among food branches the ratio of foreign capital exceeds 90% in oil-, confectionery-, brewery-, tea-, coffee- and soft drinks branches, but smallest in milling industry, wine production, spice and stock cube branches. The economic policy tried to brake the rapid foreign expansion by decentralization of privatization, by working out of different techniques (e.g. Employee Part-owner Program, privatizational leasing, E-credit), hereby helping on growth of the Hungarian property in the essential, basic branches (meat, milk, cereals). Foreign capital in subscribed capital in Hungary in 1998 and 1999 (billion HUF) Industry, branch Subscribe d capital 1 998 Agriculture, forestry, 1 999 Of which: foreign 1 998 298,9 1 999 Share og foreign capital in subscribed capital 1998 1 999 7 ,5 9 ,7 30,1 3 11,2 2 2,4 33,4 3 2,2 1 1,5 10,5 34,4 3 2,6 373,4 3 79,8 2 30,7 229,9 61,8 6 0,5 Manufacture of textiles 70,3 7 2,2 3 6,0 37,0 51,2 5 1,2 Manufacture of wood 21,0 2 2,1 1 0,7 10,5 51,0 4 7,5 Manufacture of pulp, paper 85,3 9 9,0 4 0,5 42,7 47,5 4 3,1 2 53,1 1 41,0 146,8 56,7 5 8,0 fishing Mining Manufacture of food products, beverages, tobacco Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products 2 48,5 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 65,8 7 7,2 3 2,8 44,6 49,8 5 7,8 Manufacture of machinery and equipment 80,8 8 3,8 3 9,5 45,1 48,9 5 3,8 25 Manufacture of transport equipment 134,6 1 49,6 1 02,9 111,3 76,4 7 4,4 Wholesale, repair 659,6 7 05,5 2 89,7 318,0 43,9 4 5,1 Finacial intermediation 452,1 5 02,0 2 52,3 273,7 55,8 5 4,5 Total national economy 6326,2 6 702,8 2 364,4 2624,5 37,4 3 9,2 retail trade, Source: KSH (2001) Rural development In 2000, Hungary’s GDP per capita was some 50% of the EU average. However, regional data on GDP per capita show considerable disparities. GDP ranges from 201% of the national average in Budapest down to 53% in the north-east county of Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg. Most of the counties with above average per capita GDP are located in the western and central parts of the country. Average unemployment for 1996 to 2000 was around 7-8%, falling below 6% in 2001, but here too substantial regional disparities exist. Lowest in the western counties close to the Austrian border and in Budapest unemployment is highest in the northern and eastern parts of Hungary. The service sector accounts for three-quaters of GDP in Budapest; industry’s share peaks at 40% in the central parts of the country, while agriculture’s contribution is highest in the county of Békés (south-east) and in general in the south of the country. The role of agriculture in employment is particularly important in the East and in the South of the country. Rural and urban population Budapest and the other main cities are generally better-off in terms of GDP and employment, while agriculture, which was the main activity in the villages, has experienced a deeper recession than the rest of the economy and has lost an appreciable amount of its workforce. This evolution could be explained by: city dwellers, especially older people, leaving the towns after receiving back a small plot of land; the emergence of poverty attracting people away from the towns to villages, where subsistence can be easier; Within the rural population, it seems that inhabitants of small villages moved to bigger villages, where activities other than agriculture may have better resisted the recession. The relative dynamism of the rural population does not translate into an economic dynamism. Few opportunities for economic activity exist in rural areas. One important problem is linked to the restructuring of the 26 collective farms. Under the socialist regime, members of collective farms could have "household plots". The system was mutually advantageous, as it created additional income for the members, facilitated the marketing of household production, and supported the rural population. Moreover, the co-operatives gave direct financial assistance to their members, after retirement or in the event of illness. The co-operatives which could afford it performed the functions normally carried out by local authorities at village level. Their industrial or service capacity provided an infrastructure for the whole community, and they also ran or supported social and cultural institutions. This "symbiotic" system has largely disappeared following the transformation process. Local authorities should have taken over these various services but generally they lack the financial resources, the infrastructure and the knowledge to do so effectively. Another handicap for rural areas is the pattern of settlement, inherited from the socialist period. Under the concept of “rural centres”, all social services (schools, health services etc) were concentrated in one village for every 3 to 5 small villages. Owners of isolated houses were forced (no access to infrastructure and basic services) to leave their farms and move into the villages. There are therefore nearly no farms (nor any buildings or infrastructure) outside the villages. This poses a problem to the expansion of individual farms and to the development of other activities. Moreover, villages have traditionally been prone to ribbon development which, in addition to being visually unattractive, is space consuming and impractical. The Hungarian SAPARD plan was declared admissible on 24 March 2000 and was adopted by a Commission decision after negotiations with Commission services and modifications of the text. The annual allocation for SAPARD in Hungary for 2000 is EUR 38.7 million. On the Hungarian side, EUR 12.5 million has been reserved for the national contribution in 2000. The operational plan is based on two major priorities: competitiveness of agriculture and the processing industry and focus on environmental protection aspects (five measures: 62 % of the EU funds); adaptation of rural areas (three measures: 36.5 %). A major part of the funds available for the first priority area is dedicated to investments in agricultural holdings (28.3 % of the EU funds). The other measures under this priority concern the improvement of marketing and processing of agricultural and fisheries products (20.5 % of the EU funds), the setting-up of producer groups (7.3 % of the EU funds), the agro-environment measure (4.2 %) and the improvement of vocational training (1.7 %). 27 The second priority area includes measures for the development and diversification of economic activities providing alternative income, the improvement of rural infrastructure, and the renovation and development of villages. The allocation for technical assistance towards implementation of the programme, including studies, monitoring, information and publicity campaigns, is about 1 % of the EU funds. Status of the SAPARD Programme in Hungary The European Union elaborated The Special Accession Programme for Agriculture and Rural Development (SAPARD), as one of the pre-accession instruments for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The SAPARD funds are dedicated in particular to implementing the acquis communautaire concerning the Common Agricultural Policy in the pre-accession period, as well as to solving priority problems for the adaptation of the agricultural sector and rural areas in the applicant countries. According to the Berlin Summit in the period of 2000-2006 520 million euro/year will be channelled to the 10 applicant countries in the form of non-refundable support. Hungary will be entitled to utilise 38,04 million euro (10 billion HUF) on the basis of co-financing and will earmark 3,3 billion HUF within its national budget in order to ensure its national contribution. The general strategy of the SAPARD Plan takes into consideration the main problems of the Hungarian agriculture and rural areas, and defines 3 major priorities: increasing the competitiveness of the agriculture and the processing industry, focusing on the environmental protection aspects and enhancing the adaptation capabilities of rural areas. 1. In order to achieve the goal of increasing market efficiency of the agriculture and the processing industry three measures will be implemented relying on the sources of SAPARD Program, according to the original plan: Investments into agricultural holdings Improvement of processing and marketing of agricultural and fishery products Setting up producer groups (not included in the operative programme). 2. In order to strengthen the environmental protection aspects, measures on the dissemination of agricultural production methods designed to protect the environment and maintain the countryside are to be implemented groups (not included in the operative programme). 3. In order to enhance the development and the adaptation of rural areas the following measures will be implemented through the utilisation of SAPARD sources: 28 Renovation and development of villages and protection of the rural heritage groups (not included in the operative programme) Diversification of activities aimed at generating alternative revenues groups (not included in the operative programme) Development and improvement of the rural infrastructure. The Multi-Annual Financing Agreement and the Annual Financing Memorandum were signed between the representatives of the Hungarian Republic and the European Commission on 1 March 2001. The multi-annual financing agreement provides that it shall enter into force on the date when both contracting parties have notified each other of the completion of all necessary formalities for its conclusion. A similar provision is provided for in the Annual Financing Memoranda for 2000. After the mutual notifications both agreements entered into force in June 2001. The introduced financing technique of differentiated appropriations will enable the paying agencies to obtain Community financing up to the second year after the resources have been committed. The support amounts allocated for 2000 can be utilised till 2003. In order to cope with the deadline of utilising the sums of 2000 the Commission has given its permission to the SAPARD Agency for starting the tendering procedure from September 2002. Employment and farm structure in rural agriculture In spite of the fact that concerning the contribution to the national economy and the share in the resources the role of the agricultural sector shrank in the last decade to its half and third, respectively. Its significance is much beyond the primary economic benefit of the activity. It plays an important role in retaining and development of the rural areas, in the development of the rural society and in providing a living for the rural population of non-agricultural activities. In addition it weakens the social problems and regional differences. Owing to the economic and social transition and to the ownership restructuration the participating economic organisations and enterprises of the agricultural sector are more varied, flexible and of small staff members. The majority (95.8%) of them can be classified into the size class of 20 employees and within these 93% have less than 10 employees (KSH, 2002). The precise analysis of the employment is difficult due not only to the definition problems but also to the wide scale of organisations still in restructuration. The employment generating capacity of small-scale organisations is considerably limited and due to their cost sensitivity the defenceless of the employees is increased. 29 Based on the Basic Agricultural Census of 2000 in addition to the 37 thousand enterprises there are 958.3 thousand private (individual) holdings, which are considered farms by statistics. Almost 2 million family members (20.3% of the population) are involved in this; the strength of their connection to the farm, their purpose, motivation and working hours vary a lot (AKII, 2001). A significant part (60.4%) of the private (individual) holdings are dealing with agricultural production only because of self supply; therefore, its role in subsistence cannot be ignored, however, it is not determinant at all. A little more than 30% of them announced to produce for selling the surplus quantities exceeding the amount required for self-supply by generating this way an additional income. The share of commercial holdings is only 8% (76.6 thousand holdings). The information of the Basic Agricultural Census collected to serve production purposes warn us to reconsider the subsidy schemes, the tax system and the law of the labour and social security. As a result of the radical restructuration of the land ownership and land use (80% is in private ownership) only a minor part (0.5%) of economic organisations cultivate almost 60% of the crop land and 40.5% of the land belong to 958.3 thousand private (individual) holding. These ratios demonstrate well that the land use of private (individual) holdings is significantly scattered. The average area is 2.7 hectares and due to the 90.4-% proportion of holdings with less than 5 hectares the area of the size class on average is less than 1 hectare. The number of private (individual) holdings and their share in the area are gathering in the smaller size classes. The economic organisations can be found in the upper classes of the size scale by illustrating the significant differences between the two poles and two legal statuses concerning management and supporting capacities. In the last few years the speeding up of the economy generated a moderate growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate, however, it is still disquietingly high and at the same time the inactive proportion of the population in active age is also increasing. Between 1997-2001 as a result of the increasing labour requirement of the industry, building and construction and services 250 thousand new employment were generated in the national economy, however, in the meantime the labour output of agriculture continued. Between 1997-2000 the 12.5-% labour output of agriculture (36 thousand persons) reduced the share of agricultural employment to 65%. The decreasing role of agriculture is characteristic for all the regions, however, it can well be seen which are the regions where agriculture– due to the favourable conditions, traditions and relative economic advantages is still significant (South Transdanubia, South and North parts of the Great Plain). The population of the communities is 3-4 times more strongly bound to agriculture than of towns. 30 Crucial question of the EU accession is the wage and income rise of the population to the level of the developed countries. Based on currency parity the average wages account for 11% and on purchasing power parity for 30% of the EU averages. The growth of the income differences is decreasing continuously, however the rate of the decrease is smaller compared to the first decade of the nineties. The increasing income differences can also be seen between the regions, which is reflected also by the development of the proportions of the various sources of income. In the northern regions rates of income originating from labour are the lowest while that from social incomes are the highest. In the regions of agricultural dominance (South and North part of the Great Plain and the South Transdanubia) the shares of agricultural incomes are the highest. Besides the decreasing unemployment the regional differences are increasing. The situation in the Northern and North-Eastern counties are the most critical. Unemployment threatens most the olds and the physical workers with low qualification and the return to work of this group is the most difficult. Role of Food-industry in the Development of the Agriculture and Rural Areas In the 90s, parallel to the economical transformation, the relationship among the agricultural producers and the processing industry has changed because of financial and market problems, so there was an increasing tension. The price change, the deterioration of the quality, the decrease of the demand, the shrinking of the state finance have all tainted the relation-system nearly smooth up to that time. The family farms suddenly coming to life after dismantling co-operative system couldn’t satisfy the large-scale and continuous demands for raw-material yet, so the rebuilding of co-operatives was needed. The condition of the competitiveness of the food-industry enterprises is the delivery of raw-materials in the proper quantity, in the convenient place and time. That’s why building up of the raw-material background with reliable, continuous new supplies became so important. Recently the so-called vertical co-ordinations are getting more and more significant in the producer-processor relation. Up to now, in most of the branches long-term contractual relation in terms of Westerncountries hasn’t developed between agricultural producers and processors, which would guarantee the process of product distribution without any obstacles. Of course they have developed vertical coordinating mechanisms: contracts for several years or vertical integrations. It’s common knowledge that the processors ensure demand for raw-materials with the help of independent but majority ownership companies. The effort exists to build-up a well-operating, long-term, producer-processor relation, but still today demand and so the fluctuations of prices show favour toward short-term contracts. Processors are careful: they rather produce themselves the basic materials, integrate the production into their own, internal system, than let themselves influence the unstable market effects, and exposed to the loss caused by purchase prices extorted by the state. 31 The food industries play a significant role in the development of agricultural and rural areas. The most important of these are as follows: They can help in the establishment of economic areas defined regionally too, can support the region in joining it to the economy of bigger regions and nations, and to the European regionalization processes, can have an advantageous from the point of view of regional employment and labour market, have an effect on the economical performance of the region, on the income growth both on the individual and public level, can increase the infrastructural development of the region, with the increase of supplier’s capacity they can reach the development of the small- and medium-size company sector connected with them, can be instrumental in development of agricultural integration, can increase in regional attractiveness, hereby in its role of population-keeping, and its competitiveness, can moderate chance difference among regions. In the setback of agriculture 3 principal factors can be mentioned: the lack of capital, confusion of agro-food product-chain and the structural difficulties. In the case of small and medium-size enterprises, in particular small companies there are significant backlogs in every respect. In their case greater support is needed. Particularly vital is the problem of rural food-retail. At the majority of food-industry companies the common view was that buying is primarily built on the local producer and whatever problem happens, first it is they who buy from well-tried producers. The EU-accession requires an increased consideration of environmental viewpoints, so the processors make efforts not only in technology changes of their own machines or quality-control of their own production, but in the regular keeping of each member’s activity of vertical chain. Where the integrated production is running smoothly, it is typical to have a close relation with the raw-material producers. It can extend to the consultant or marketing activities, which quite often gives assistance to profiting from the supports (e.g. Phare). The food industry needs an agriculture which in large measures produces cheap but good quality raw-materials, and the agriculture is able to develop only with a high-quality, effective processing industry. From the close interaction of the agriculture, rural area connected to latter one and the food industry result that their concerted managing and development are the preconditions for increasing their competitiveness. 32 Results of the questionnaire It made a survey among the food enterprises with the goal to compare the competitiveness, the strategic view and the preparedness to the EU according to branches, company-size and regional placing. The questionnaire inquiry was preceded – which actually gives the base of the study – by a deep interview made with marketing leaders of 8 food industrial firms (different sectors). The aim of the interviews was to get more complete information that cannot be called down by questionnaires and to help to edit the questionnaire. Marketing leaders (where there was not a position like this, persons responsible for marketing activities) were asked to fill in the questionnaires. At the selection of the involved firms, in the investigation, it was a leading principle for me to get an overall picture from the situation of the food industry also on the basis of company size (small, medium and large companies) arranged by market data and the number of participants. The selected organizations operated in the branches of meat-procession and -preservation, poultry-procession, vegetable- and fruit-procession and preservation, milk-, milling- and sugar industry, and beverage manufacture. The branches not involved in the examination (soft drinks, tobacco, tea, coffee, sweets, fine oil) were left out because they posses quiet big part of the foreign ownership (more than 90%, see also graph). Therefore the comparison of the competitiveness of these sectors with other sectors would distort the real picture into a positive direction. we left out the extreme deconcentration of the branches (they have a lot of small and significantly differentiated participants). We selected the companies by randomizing (every fifth firm in Trade Register) in order to make them representative on the grounds of the number of certain sectors and within that the small, medium and large companies. (I consider firms employing 50-249 people as medium-sized companies). The number of the sent questionnaires was 350. I got back 138 out of the 350 (with the help of phone inquiry) and 135 was valuable, which is 38 %. The final sending of the questionnaires was preceded by the test-questionnaire sent to 20 firms, which tested the rightness of the content and the realisability. The asked firms: I sent to 10-15% of all the companies in each sector, where the large companies represented at least 70% of the sales of branches. At the analysis of the answers, given for the questionnaire, it was a leading principle for me to examine the differences relating company size separately at each question (average, standard deviation, etc.). I used a statistical program, called SPSS 9.0 for the survey. In the case of factor- 33 analysis I used “Varimax” rotation1 and at cluster-analysis I segmented the answering firms with the use of hierarchical cluster-method, Ward-procedure2, and the factors coming from the results of the factor-analysis. I determined the number of clusters on the basis of the so-called ”Elbow”criteria3. Results Within food industry the alteration started in the beginning of the 90’s and the taking of positive advantages attaching to it make good progress. Although there are still many areas where arrears need to be made, it can be stated that such a sphere of organisations has been formed, which seems to be competitive both in the Hungarian and the international market. Also in case of the follower firms the way of looking at things begins to take shape. With this help, important factors, which could result the progress of competitiveness, can be identified. Among the instruction of questionnaire survey, I mention the increase of customer orientation in the first place. On the basis of data, an integral part of strategic decision-making is represented by buyers’ opinion; firms try to keep up with the growing social differentiation. The other similarly important fact –which is typical for most of the companies-, is the effort to maintain long-term relations with producers and deliverers, to reach a good relationship. Mutual dependence became evident; the tendency of food industrial firms to the integration of producers becomes stronger. From the point of view of strategic mentality, I could differentiate three groups: Cluster 1 (N=36): Self-confident leaders Modern marketing attitude and strategic thinking characterizes these firms; their leading role cannot be questioned. They have good relation with agricultural suppliers and they think in strengthening of their regional market. Cluster 2 (N=37): Opportunity seekers 1 The factors resulted in the factor analysis influence, with different weight, the trend of the same variable. Between these so-called factor weights there could be negative numbers too, therefore, in order to eliminate this there is a need for rotation of those (rotation in co-ordinate system). One of the mostly known procedure is the Varimax. Hierarchical method of cluster analysis (they give an ordered structure of individuals and their groups’), which minimise the square Euclidean distance from the cluster average. 2 Elbow point: the ”breaking point” of the line determined by the sum of quadrate errors and cluster numbers (so the significant change that can be experienced in the gradient). 3 34 It is a special group; they are so customer-orientated as price- and cost-orientated. They try to force down their prices, meanwhile they are sensitive for raw-material prices, have good relation with agricultural suppliers too. Cluster 3 (N=43): Followers Making effort to satisfy of regional demand is not significant. The picture shows a diverse picture of the situation of the questioned companies. Concerning all types of firms the statements of „building up long term relations with producers” and „the priority of quality”. On the other hand the „we offer our raw material supplier better conditions of payment” statement got very small values. On the basis of competitiveness we also formed three groups: Competitives, Survivals and Stragglers. Cluster 1 (N=37): Competitives They hold themselves competitive in Hungary; they would like to form a long-term relationship with the agricultural producers. By examining the answers, in connection with the preparation for the attachment to the EU with the help of crosstabs, it can be stated that according to the statements of the companies belonging to that group they feel prepared, they meet the regulations of low and the environmental rules. For them is important to take the local needs into consideration, they focuses on custom-designed products for strengthen of their market position. Cluster 2 (N=42): Survivals Their strength is the concentration on quality and total quality regulation. They have enough storage capacity but the optimalization of their distribution system is fighting with some shortcomings. They move along on a 2-way path: either they survive and get into the group of competitive firms or they are fighting against winding up with the last ones. In case of these firms the role of management is very important because the bases already exist to be able to be competitive. In their trade they focuses mainly on domestic market and only some of them on export. 35 Cluster 3 (N=35): Stragglers They are the losers of economic change, they fight with the lack of capital. They are totally exposed to the competition of the food industry. According to the data it can be said it does neither depend on the branches nor on the company size to which extent the company concentrates in its strategy on the agricultural suppliers, environmental protection and regions. Naturally big companies which are prospering and belonging to several branches have considerable effect on small regions. All these manifestate themselves in the GDP and in the employment data of the given region but this is a long term process. 3. KEY ISSUES – IDENTIFYING PRIORITIES a) National level In this chapter first we compare Hungary and Hungarian regions to the member countries; then, we deal with rural problems on sub-regional level. Income distribution and spatial differences Since the political change makes differences in income have been increased significantly in the country. Due to the latter, Hungary’s index4 of Social Cohesion used by Eurostat, in comparison with current member countries, does not show great income differences across households (Fig. 1). Hungary (3.6) just follows the Scandinavian states. This result is based on the household panel of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO). The panel of TÁRKI (Social Research Institute of Hungary), however, shows a little more uneven income distribution (4.4), but it still places Hungary just after the Netherlands, a little before the levels of France and Germany. At the first glance, Hungary’s position is satisfactory and it is in line with EU range. 4 Ratio of the top and lowest 20 per cent of household incomes. 36 Social Cohesion 1998 H HCSO EU-15 E I UK D NL S DK 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Ratio of incomes by top quintile per lowest quintile Figure 1 However, one should be aware that Social Cohesion index is measured by quintiles. If we would calculate the same index for income deciles, even a higher income differences can be seen from 7.1 to 8.1 times between the top and lowest ten per cents of households from 1992 to 1999 (Fig. 2). This phenomenon calls the attention for further and more detailed analysis comparing current and candidate members. HUNGARY: RATIO OF TOP AND LOWEST PERCENTAGES 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1992 1993 1994 Quintiles 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Deciles Figure 2 Unlike the applicable case of income distribution by households, there is no generally used methodology to comparing countries by territorial income distribution. The obstacles of a fair comparison are originated by the inhomogeneous territorial units by member (and candidate) countries. NUTS 2 regions5, for instance, often include capitals (as Brussels, London, Berlin, Vienna and Prague, etc.) or even big towns (like Manchester, Bremen, and Hamburg, etc.), but in other countries even the capital belong to a NUTS 2 region, thus making the deviation lower. Several countries compose a single NUTS 2 region alone (e.g. Denmark and each of the Baltics). It follows that spatial differences might differ just from how have the boundaries of the regions been 37 established. Moreover, NUTS 2 regions are usually large, therefore internal differences are covered. This situation, contrary to the previous trend, makes the differences less coming into view. It means spatial difference across NUTS 2 regions should be considered carefully. However, income data by regions are fairly available, even converted to the EU mean, which is a key indicator selecting the regions for structural and rural fund accessibility in the European Union. Standard deviations of GDP per person by NUTS2 in EU member countries I U K L IR D SF A B E F P S N L EL 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Figure 3 Nevertheless, these special differentiations across NUTS 2 regions are quite moderate in the European Union (Fig. 3). It is not surprising that the lowest standard deviations are found in Sweden and the Netherlands (14-17 per cent) but more notable that Greece and Portugal are following them. The largest differentiations occur in Italy and the United Kingdom, though in a still moderate extent (34-38 per cent). Hungary has lower spatial differentiation (below 30 per cent). Hungary in the European regional structure The sub-national regions in the European countries differ significantly from administrative, economic and cultural angles. In the Hungarian governance system, there is an intermediate (county) level between the central and local (municipality) governments; county system has been existing since about 1000 year. This county level corresponds to NUTS 3. This level is composed from authorities transferred from the local level on the one hand and from having established county branches of the central administration from the other. Seven new regional units have been established, which corresponds to NUTS 2 regions, and some authorities from the central government are to be allocated to them. NUTS 2 regions in the candidate countries include generally larger area and more population than in current member states. However, Hungary belongs to those countries where the average area and population of a region are lower than the averages in EU-15. The density of population in Hungary is below the EU-15 average, but higher than in the CEEC-10. Unemployment rate, especially youth unemployment rate in most regions of Hungary is much lower, than in the EU-15. Compared to candidate countries where employment statistics show much more unfavourable performance than most member states, the distance is even larger. Within the country, the worst employment situation is found in the Northern Hungary region, and it is still worse than EU-15 in the Northern Great Plain. In both region unemployment rate exceeds the EU-15 mean by 18 per cent and youth unemployment by 5 to 25 per cent. Apart from Eastern part of the country, in all the remaining five NUTS 2 regions, the unemployment level is much lower than in the European 38 Union, down to 50 per cent. The worse situation is in the Trans-Danubian region, where the level approaching 77-95 per cent. The income level in Hungary (measured by GDP per capita in purchasing power parity) is almost half of that of the EU. Among CEEC-10, it is the third highest level. An average level of per capita income in the CEEC makes 38 per cent of the current EU-15 level. If this ratio will be maintained, at the moment of the enlargement the overall EU level of per capita income will fall up to 72 per cent of its current level. At the same time, the rate of growth in CEEC was considerably higher than in the current member states during the last years. A catching up trend has been taken place in the region and possibly incomes levelling trend occurs as well. In CEEC-10, the GDP per capita in NUTS 2 regions is notably below the level of the EU-15. In member countries, only Greece has one NUTS 2 region from 13, which is below half of the EU mean, but the most CEEC regions are below these law classes. In Hungary, five from the seven regions fall to 25-49 per cent class, but in Bulgaria all regions and in Romania 2 from 8 regions fall into the class below 25 (Table 1). It can be derived that candidate countries should increase their income level in all the regions. Meeting this need the plan of the European Commission fairly intends to emphasise regional and rural developments for the new potential members. The highest income level in Hungary belongs to the Central region. Since the latest year of comparative data (1998), the income level overpasses the 75 per cent of the EU level. The lowest level in Hungary is shown by the Northern region and the Northern Great Plain where the performance is only one third. Number of development of regions in purchasing power standards Country Number of over NUTS 2 150 regions Number of regions where per capita GDP in 1998 is 150125 124100 99- 75- 49- 25 & 76 50 26 less per cent of EU-15 average Member States of the European Union EU-15 Austria Belgium Denmark United Kingdom Finland France Greece The Netherlands Ireland Luxembourg Germany (Grand-Duché) Italy Portugal Spain Sweden 211 9 11 1 37 6 26 13 12 2 1 40 20 7 18 8 8 1 1 − 1 − 1 − − − 1 3 − − − − 16 1 1 − 2 1 − − 3 − − 3 4 − − 1 51 3 3 1 10 1 2 − 3 1 − 15 7 − 4 1 89 3 6 − 20 3 19 2 6 1 − 11 4 2 6 6 46 1 − − 4 1 4 10 − − − 8 5 5 8 − 1 − − − − − − 1 − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − Central European Candidate Countries 39 CECC-10 Bulgaria Czech Republic Estonia Poland Latvia Lithuania Hungary Romania Slovakia Slovenia 53 6 8 1 16 1 1 7 8 4 1 − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − − 1 − 1 − − − − − − − − 1 − − − − − − − − 1 − 10 − 6 − 1 − − 2 − − 1 33 − 1 1 15 1 1 5 6 3 − 8 6 − − − − − − 2 − − Table 1 During the transition period, the employment in agriculture has diminished a lot in Hungary. In some regions, its share corresponds to several member countries (Fig. 4). The highest share (13 per cent) is shown in the Southern Great Plain. Agriculture in total employment in Hungary, % 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Central Hungary C Trans-danubia W Trans-danubia S Trans-danubia 1990 2001 Northern Hungary N Great Plain S Great Plain Figure 4 b) Regional level Rurality in Hungary In Hungary, the definition of rural has been intensively debated among professionals and in the public domain. The meaning of rural in the public thinking significantly differs from the scientific determination. Nevertheless, a consistent determination does not exist even in experts’ publications. However, through the appearance of rural development policy and especially rural development subsidies this concept has gained practical importance, since for specification of beneficiaries the identification of rural areas is essential. In the following we outline different identification methods. 40 In the working paper called the “Strategic Program” (this is a part of Hungary’s Rural Development Program) rural development was defined as a complex regional development strategy aimed at preserving and enhancing the social, ecological and economic potential of rural regions (i.e. integrated rural development). The classification of rural regions in Hungary is laid down in the National Regional Development Concept (NRDC). Based on this classification 83% of Hungary’s territory qualifies as rural (representing 30% of the country’s inhabitants), in which territories the NRDC foresees the adoption of principles and methods applied in the EU. The OECD methodology distinguishes rural territories on a settlement (municipality) level, examining whether population density is higher or lower than 150 people/km 2. The OECD methodology is applied in the EU as well with the sole difference being the population density criterion of 100 people/km2. In Hungary the interpretation of “rural” is narrowed down in context of agricultural rural development regions. Those backward rural sub-regions were included in this cluster, where both agricultural employment and unemployment are significant. That is to say: - The urban/rural ratio is below national average, The share of agricultural employment within the workforce is beyond the rural average, The unemployment rate exceeds the national average by at least 33%, Per capita personal income tax basis is less than 75% of the national average. According to these measurements roughly a third of the country’s territory classifies as rural. Rurality and the statistical system The polarisation of rural and urban territories was accelerated by the change of the political system and the accompanying economic transformation. These changes impinged upon the traditional spatial structures of the country. The main features of this change are as follows: - The prominent development of the capital Budapest as opposed to the other parts of the country; A growing gap between western, eastern and northern territories in favour of the western territories; - Deepening spatial structures in the development of the sub-regions; - Intensifying economic arrangements within the settlement structure. 35-40% of national GDP is produced in Budapest. Besides the predominance of the central region (capital and the surrounding county) quite a few other old structures have survived till now. Pre-eminent of these is the economic and to a lesser extent cultural gap along the river Danube. This economic and cultural difference could not have been disregarded when selecting the sub-regions involved in the project. In the nineties the Central Statistical Office established a new statistical- administrative level in the nomenclature the so-called “planning statistical regions”, which split the country into 7 major parts. (1. Region of West Transdanubia; 2. Region of Central Transdanubia; 3. Region of South Transdanubia; 4. Central Hungarian Region; 5. North Hungarian Region; 6. North Great Plain Region; 7. South Great Plain Region.) This administrative level corresponds to the NUTS 2 level of the EU. Among the regions the Central-Hungarian Region (containing Budapest) is a typical in that it is far more developed than any other. 41 Why on sub-regions’ level? In Hungary, it is only the county system, which has an established administrative and statistical structure and a historic past. However, it corresponds to the NUTS 3 level of the NUTS nomenclature, which plays a minor role in the rural development policy in several member country of the EU. Moreover, most counties in Hungary – although would qualify as rural according to the 100 people/km2 population density threshold – are too heterogeneous to be classified as rural. All in all, the population density measure alone seemed to be insufficient for the classification. According to the effective Hungarian provisions all the higher level administrative units (counties, regions) would also classify as rural, since they fulfil the criterion of not having more than 120 inhabitants (most of them have less than 100) per square-kilometre (except for the largest towns). However these units are far too heterogeneous for analysis. Therefore, after the review of the effective territorial classification system we concluded that the most rationale would be to choose the so-called “statistical sub-regions for planning purposes” (or planning sub-region) as level of analysis. Below the county level, there are two sets of sub-regions. One is designated by law and is called the 'statistical sub-regions', covering the whole area of the country. This provides the framework not only for statistics, but also for every sort of designation in the Hungarian regional development system. The “statistical sub-region” level corresponds to the NUTS 4 level of the EU nomenclature, comprising normally 20-50 thousand inhabitants. The country is made up of 150 sub-regions. This system of sub-regions is all-inclusive and non-overlapping and does not transgress the county boundaries. (One county comprises generally 5-10 sub-regions). In most cases a sub-region consists of one major settlement (not necessarily urban) and the surrounding villages, which are linked to the centre through their infrastructure, economy, healthcare, education etc. A sub-region is thus a community of geographically contiguous settlements tied together by employment-, residential-, commuting-, medium level public service (education, trade, healthcare) relationships. In this system each town is a local centre, however there are also local centres which are not towns. The current system of sub-regions has been applied by the Central Statistical Office since 1 August 1997. The other type is the 'voluntary sub-regions', which consists of associations of local authorities as a result of a bottom-up process. These are very diverse in their size or the population covered, and many times do not match with the statistical regions, often causing confusion in the system.6 Local authorities represent the settlement level in Hungary and have most of the resources and responsibilities about everyday life concerns. There are 3120 of these with equal rights, most of them (2902) in villages. Having an institutional system and resources on this very local level can provide a significant factor for rural development. The abilities and the work of a village mayor can have significant consequences for the development and future of the village. 6 For example, the difference between the Tapolca statistical sub-region and the Tapolca voluntary micro region is that out of the 32 villages the former includes three village which the latter does not. This has only to do with application for resources, because with the omission of the three relatively developed settlements the voluntary micro region had a better qualification. 42 The village associations, described above, are also very important factors, since they provide a framework for institutions and integrated development programmes on a sub-regional level. In the course of our research we defined rural areas on the above level of “statistical subregions” – with some minor adjustments. This was supported by both theoretical and practical considerations, as the county level (which corresponds to NUTS 3 level) are not homogeneous regarding to rurality. There is probably a more important practical consideration, namely, those in Hungary beneficiaries of rural development subsidies are selected on sub-regional (NUTS 4) or on settlement (NUTS 5) level We defined rural sub-regions upon the adjusted OECD typology. This method considers practically the sparsely populated regions as rural. In our adjusted definition, we considered those settlements as rural, which have a population density less than 120 people/km 2 instead of 150. Without this modification almost the entire territory of Hungary could be considered as rural. That justifies our adjusted method. With our selection method, 92 sub-regions out of the total 150 are rural, which cover 55 per cent of Hungary’s territory and one third of the population. The first classification of sub-regions In our methodology, we followed the classification of the CSO for the 150 NUTS 4 subregions. The different categories were those of determined by the referring publications of the Central Statistical Office. By the CSO, in order to determine development clusters for the subregions 9 indicators7 were taken into account, which well characterise their economic and social position and the general level of development. The following groups were identified: 1. dynamically progressing regions; 2. progressing regions; 3. catching-up regions; 4. stagnant regions; 5. lagging-behind regions. For analysing the specific role of the agriculture, we have introduced further breakdowns: rural – non-rural; 7 These indicators are: a, Registered capital of foreign companies per capita, 1998 b, Personal Income Tax basis per capita, 1998 c, Personal Income Tax basis per capita, 1998/1988 d, The number of operating business units per thousand inhabitants, 1998 e, The number of operating business units, 1998/1995 f,. Unemployment rate, 1998 g, Net Migration Difference per thousand inhabitants, 1990-1998 h, Number of telephone lines per thousand inhabitants, 1998 i, Number of cars per thousand inhabitants, 1998 43 agriculture – non-agriculture. Rural-non-rural identification was taken from the OECD terminology, and 92 rural and 58 non-rural sub-regions were classified. Agriculture-non-agriculture classification was made by the share of the sector in the employment in 1990. The distinction was made by the statistical mean of rural sub-regions. Sub-regions above the mean were attributed to agricultural profile, and subregions below the average – to non-agricultural one. Among non-rural sub-regions, 56 have nonagricultural and 2 have agricultural profile. As far as rural sub-regions are concerned, there were as many as 41 non-agricultural sub-regions, and 51 agricultural ones. In the application, we have 16 groups at classifying the 150 sub-regions, as to four groups not one sub-region has fallen. Practically we analyse only ten groups, because six groups have very few sub-regions (1 to 4). They are as follows: dynamically progressing, non-rural, non-agriculture (22); progressing, non-rural, non-agriculture (17); progressing, rural, non-agriculture (9); catching-up, non-rural, non-agriculture (11); catching up, rural, agriculture (9); catching-up, rural, non-agriculture (20); stagnant, rural, agriculture (13); stagnant, rural, non-agriculture (10); lagging-behind, rural, agriculture (17); lagging-behind, rural, non-agriculture (11). The work covers 141 (out of 150) sub-regions, where a necessary population is available in the above 10 classes, for statistical analysis. These sub-regions represent more than 94 per cent of the total area and population of the country In the analyses, standard deviations of the groups are compared to one another and to that of the total population. The significance of differences that way was approved. In the following, only some of the outcomes are presented. The rural development programming is exercised at the local government level within a NUTS 2 region, connecting to the National Development Plan of Hungary. The first step is to make an analysis of the current situation, where two principal methods are used: either by a statistical analysis of a set of statistical indicators, or a SWOT analysis or both. The strategic programming makes out the general goals of the development plan, identifies the problems and priorities, and establishes the program and chooses applicable measures. The operational programming includes the agreement with potential actors, budget by sources. Here, we try to collect the main problems in rural areas, to identify some priorities and to consider for choosing some applicable measures in Hungary. Analysing the situation from the first classification The outlined statistical analyses help to figure out the main difficulties in rural areas and to find the most critical types in NUTS 4 level. The outcome helps to orient NUTS 2 regions to consider the most critical areas. The population density of the sub-regions varies from 35-40 to over 500 persons per square km with the most typical of 60-80. The population loss per sub-region is not significant: there are 44 only a few ones where the loss has been higher than 10-15 per cent during the last decade. Unemployment and long term unemployment rate has an increasing trend from dynamically progressing to lagging-behind sub-regions. However, the share of long term unemployment in total unemployment (50-60 per cent) has no, or not significant trend. Another important criterion in rural development is connected with employment in agriculture. It worth to mention that high rate of agricultural employment occurs only in two types of sub-regions: catching-up (15.6 per cent) and stagnant (19 per cent) ones, both types are rural and having agricultural profile. Although, laggingbehind sub-regions have similar share of agricultural employment as progressing sub-regions. Similarly, the rate of fall in share of the employment in agriculture was nearly the same intensive in the lagging-behind sub-regions as it occurred in the lagging-behind sub-regions. The most moderate decline took place in the catching-up and stagnant sub-regions, where the decline was still significant (50 to 60 per cent). Income differentiation can be more precisely described at lower level sub-regions than in case of NUTS 2 regions. It is notable, that concerning the lagging-behind sub-regions, there are a third less taxpayers relative to the total population comparing to dynamically progressing subregions and the declared income per taxpayer is about the half of the latter. It results in a ten-fifteen time difference in the income producing capacities. Due to the progressive taxing system of Hungary, the differences in the contribution to the national budget, the difference is even bigger. This phenomenon multiplies the requirements from regional policies; the income shortages in less developing sub-regions provide less contribution to the budget. Nevertheless, an effective public policy needs more income to transfer from the better progressing sub-regions, in order to make able them to start a progress contributing to make new investments enabling the lagging-behind subregions to improve their capacities for income generation for the future. Although, we concentrate on rural policy issues, some shortages in the infrastructure should also be mentioned. There are relatively small differences in public water-, power- or gas supply, but a great difference in public sewerage, transport conditions (accessibility to motor ways, to railway network or to water transport, which is not developed in the whole country). Medical services, measured both in the number of family doctors or children doctors and the service hours of the medical centres vary modestly, but measured in hospital accessibility those vary greatly by subregions. Child nursery and kindergarten, as well as primary school capacities do not show much differentiation, but in secondary schools and in higher education the pictures of the sub-regions are differentiated significantly. Certainly, an efficient regional policy should not target to built hospitals and universities in some rural areas, but helping their accessibility, should be of primary goal. As far as the agricultural sector is concerned, there are some significant differences between different types of sub-regions. The share of individual farms with non-farm activities is much higher in the dynamically developing and the developing sub-regions than in those with the lower grades of development. In lagging-behind regions, especially with low share, only 2-3 per cent of the individual farms run non-farm activities. The density of such farms is also higher in higher development sub-regions. Farming enterprises show much lower differentiation in this respect. The distribution of ‘diversified’ farms clearly shows that lack of development goes together with lower density and accordance of non-farm activities in farms. It indicates that diversification should be an essential element in rural policy, not only in sub-regions with agricultural profile but in rural areas per se. At the same time, in sub-regions attributed to the lower grades of development, there is a higher share of agricultural enterprises in the total number of enterprises either in individual sectors or in companies. Furthermore, not only the density of total enterprises but that of the agricultural enterprises (individual and company each) is lower. Therefore, in these stagnant and lagging-behind sub-regions, a significant attention should be given to the development of entrepreneurship in general and the training of local people supporting the latter. 45 It merits attentions that in sub-regions with lower development capability, the density of private farms with full time operator is significantly higher (up to 12-16 farms per 10 km2). Their share is also much higher (up to 16 per cent), while in dynamically developing and developing subregions it is below, sometimes far below 10 per cent. It shows that in sub-regions where people face with serious restrictions to obtain income, and even unemployment is higher than the national level, people have more efforts to run full time farms. Likewise these trends, in sub-regions with agricultural profile, there is a higher land size of individual farms in compare with other sub-regions. In rural areas, land size is usually higher than non-rural sub-regions, with the exception for lagging-behind sub-regions. Opposite to the individual farms, farming companies usually have lower land size in sub-regions with agricultural profile. In these sub-regions, certainly a more intensive struggle is taken place for the possibility for individual land use, due to the lower job opportunities. On the other side, it shows the evidence, that in case of land shortage individual farms offer more job opportunities for the people than agricultural companies do. Nevertheless, in non-rural sub-regions and at higher development capabilities, farming enterprises can easier maintain higher areas to use as they really do it. Analyses of rural areas by five sub-region classes Nevertheless, it is easier to analyse less groups, therefore, we composed only 5 groups of rural areas in the broader analysis. For this purpose, we aggregated some of the original classification of the CSO. In this way, all the 92 rural regions were involved, but aggregated all the non rural sub-regions. In this approach, the following rural sub-regions were classified: 1. Developed 2. Medium, non agricultural 3. Medium, agricultural 4. Undeveloped, non agricultural 5. Undeveloped, agricultural To overview the demographic differences between these groups, the number of settlements in each group differs from each other but the rural areas are almost the same (621.9 sq. m). The difference amongst the number of settlements can cause that the population in the groups shows a high standard variation. Together with a lower development level, the population density decreases, too. The population rate shows a continuous decreasing by the level of development, what means that the net migration has a negative sign. The economic indicators also show expected differences. It can not cause a surprise that the rural sub-regions has a relatively high employment in agricultural sector (agriculture and forestry): more than 1/3 of the earners work in this field. The unemployment rate is high (5-12% in the rural sub-regions) but the rate of the long-term unemployed working power shows a slight fall, fortunately. The rate of the non-manual (white-collar) workers is extremely high (10-17%) but it is lower in the under-developed areas. It can be due to the migration of this layer: the white-collar workers leave their living place and settle in other areas and bigger cities. Income-support for the unemployed people is higher in the under-developed areas. The education is higher in the more developed areas but this fact has the disadvantage, that the institutes (kindergartens, nurseries, schools) are crowded in these areas. 46 47 Stati stical sub-r egions of rur al development 2002 Dev eloped Medi um, non agr i cul tur al Medi um, agr icul t ur al Undevel oped, agr i cul tur al Undevel oped, non agr icul t ur al Non r u r al Legend Because of the negative migration in the under-developed areas, the new built dwellings have a lower rate, than the developed areas. The total number of the existing dwellings is almost the same. The electricity and conduit water network in the buildings shows no difference among the sub-regions, but the piped gas and sewerage: these public utilities have a higher penetration in the developed areas. Every sub-region has a lower number of both corporations and unincorporated enterprises, than in the non-rural sub-regions. It is no surprising, because the enterprises are concentrated on the towns, which are fewer in the rural areas. The enterprises are mainly industrial, trade and service companies. Retailing trade units are also represent them in a lower rate than the national penetration. The lags are smaller in case of FMCG shops but bigger in the household application shops. The inhabitants of the under-developed areas are a bit closed from the hypermarkets, and bigger stores, which are in the cities, because, the private car penetration is very low there. Hotels and catering services – which can be a really strong basis of rural development – have a low rate in the rural sub-regions. The hotels and restaurants are mainly in the towns and cities. This fact can be a starting point of rural tourism, private hotels ands catering. The number of private farms decreased sharply in the last ten years. There is 2.5-2.8 persons work in a private farm and this number increases parallel with the development status. The falling in the number of private farms meant that the size of the lands per farms increased. Anyway this increasing was high in rate but low in size. An average size of a private farm is 3 ha, with a really high standard variance. The arable land and the vineyards, also have a high standard variance. Cattle and pig stock is bigger in developed areas: cattle stock increased, while pig stock decreased in the last decade. The number of agricultural companies is almost equal in the sub-regions and the farm size is bigger in case of private farms in lower development sub-regions. The cattle stock also concentrated on the companies, and the dairy sector is also works mainly at the companies. It is because of the high level of demanded investments. Pig stock penetration is lower in companies, than in private farms, but in the non-rural sub-regions has bigger pig farms, which belong to companies. 4. MEASURES CONTRIBUTING TO SOLVING PROBLEMS IN PRIORITY AREAS a) Scenarios – structured in policy areas breakdown Income diversification Corporate farms as principal subjects to diversification The manner in which decisions are made and the power of the management varies considerably between the different company forms. In limited liability companies the owner or largest stakeholder in the company makes the decisions while managers implement them. However, managers with appropriate skills and experience are appointed so that they are a reflection on the decisions made, rather than their skills and experience influencing the decisions themselves. In the case of joint stock company 2, the limited liability structure enabled the managers to gain power, by amassing ownership of the companies. This enabled them to decide on the diversified activities to be undertaken by the relevant companies and to cherry pick the most profitable ones prior to 48 amalgamation into a joint stock company. Maintaining these enterprises’ limited liability form gave the advantage of not having to share dividends as would be the case in a joint stock company. The joint stock companies have a more complex decision making structure due to the presence of both a supervisory board and management board. In some cases such as for joint stock company 2, the supervisory board members have effectively been determined by the management who nominated the candidates, providing little choice. This enabled them to appoint people whom they knew on the board who were unlikely to oppose their decisions. If the management have the largest shareholdings as in the case of both joint stock companies, this gives them greater voting power and is likely to influence the decisions of the other shareholders since, if the largest shareholders believe that a decision is a good idea, they have the largest potential to gain or to lose as a result. Thus, if they back a decision, it is an indicator that the decision is a good one. This will tend to make other shareholders vote in their favour. In the case of the second joint stock company, the managers’ ‘power’ over the former members is illustrated by their ability to make gains by creating limited liability companies from the co-operative, which enabled them not only to amass assets and power but also to gain from tax rebates in a process which they described as ‘making money by doing nothing’. The members were obviously willing to sell up to them with the offers that they made, but may well not have realised that the managers were gaining money from the government in the process. The way in which managers can present a decision at an AGM for votation will probably influence the vote too, since if something is presented in a persuasive manner, it is likely that it will be passed. In joint stock companies, it seems that managers have the greatest power and, therefore, it is logical that their qualifications and experience are reflected in decisions about diversification. It also appears that qualifications and experience are a factor in them being voted onto the board. Managers in co-operatives appear to have a harder time in making decisions since members always have the potential to withdraw their assets from the co-operative. Thus, if they were discontent with a decision they could leave, potentially putting the company in jeopardy of bankruptcy or failure. Difficulties in decision making arise due to lack of attendance at AGMs, mainly because members either live at a distance from the co-operative or because many members are pensioners. Either way, it is then necessary to call a second meeting at which decisions can be made. The problems of making a decision were illustrated by joint stock company 1 which had previously been a co-operative for whom transformation to a joint stock company had long been delayed due to a failure to obtain agreement from the pensioners within the membership. Often the managers seem to have been in their positions before reform, so that they have experience and usually qualifications. It is them who often generate ideas so that those passed at AGMs are usually generated by management and therefore, reflect their characteristics. Diversification With regard to diversification itself, it seems to have often been driven by the reform process. This is because usually the reform has resulted in a fall in area operated, often as a consequence of members withdrawing their land. The machinery and buildings had the capacity required by the original farms size, so that the fall in area results in surpluses. The members who withdrew their land often lack some of the machinery and storage facilities, knowing that the cooperative, joint stock or limited liability company have these assets, and may have previously provided some of these services has prompted them to demand the services and the company to provide them. In many cases it is unclear which factor had the greatest effect; the demand or the supply. In these cases it appears that diversification has not occurred as part of a business strategy. Some of the former co-operatives such as joint stock company 1 seem to have acquired diversified enterprises from the pre-reform collective. These have failed largely as a result of a lack 49 of markets for the products. This is illustrative of the need to have a market in order to diversify successfully. Joint stock company 2, appeared to have a very entrepreneurial management team who were able to see opportunities both in markets into which they could diversify and in transforming to different farm structures. Their diversification into seed production and a flour mill was beneficial to both enterprises as it enabled vertical integration to be achieved whereby, the quality of wheat, and, therefore, that of the flour could be controlled by the company and continually improved. This was part of an important strategy to improve the quality of the flour in order to both maintain and increase their market. Although both enterprises existed on the pre-reform cooperative they have been built upon and improved in order to make them successful under the new company forms. The initial experiment in entering milling with the small mill to investigate markets and the process demonstrates their business like approach in starting on a small scale before becoming larger. The diversification into a mill, by buying it from the former collective also showed that they were able to profit from the voucher system, enabling it to be purchased at a low price, thereby, reducing sunk costs and the returns necessary to make a profit. A similar entrepreneurial attitude was observed for limited liability company 3 which had had the opportunity to diversify into retail outlets, and had been successful in this. Furthermore they had diversified into a mill and grain trading as a strategy to reduce risk. This was the only company to describe their reasons for diversification in this way. The company had been helped in its initial growth by injections of capital from foreign sources which had also carried tax advantages. However, it was not this alone which had made the company successful, rather its ability to market its products well and the entrepreneurial attitude of the owner. Limited liability company 1 also had an entrepreneurial owner who was very aware of market demands for tourist services. The constant investment and generation of ideas has been instrumental in maintaining and expanding a client base. This has been particularly important due to competition within the locality. In this company, however, the use of government grants has been vital in achieving this. Without such capital injection, the range of activities to attract tourists, and probably the success of the enterprise would have been far less. Thus, government grants can be important in aiding in making an enterprise successful. However, without the ideas and the experience and knowledge of the owner in the sphere of tourism and catering, the enterprise may have been more limited. The awareness of customer demands has enabled the enterprise to extend its season. This has been achieved by offering more equestrian attractions such as riding of the horses which appeals to a different clientele than those who come during peak seasons to watch displays of horsemanship and folklore. Thus, success appears to be based on entrepreneurial spirit and market awareness. Researching the market for a good or service before starting it is vital in giving it a chance to survive, understanding the requirements of customers is important not just in satisfying them but also in overcoming competition should it arise. This is illustrated by both limited liability company 1 and co-operative 2 who compete on price, in the case of the hardware shop, seeking cheaper suppliers. Limited liability company 1 has the advantage of its location close to the Danube to have the opportunity to attract a different clientele, on cruises. With regard to encouraging diversification on the three company forms, it appears that cooperatives are most hampered by their structure and lack of capital. Due to the fact that members could potentially withdraw at any time, there is some uncertainty surrounding the structure which can make financial institutions less willing to provide loans. Since members seem to have more influence than shareholders in a joint-stock-company, this can lead to difficulties in making a decision to diversify. On the other hand, limited liability companies seem to be potentially more open to encouragement since decisions can be made by the owner without cumbersome ‘democratic’ procedures. Thus, decisions can be made faster and more easily. In the case of limited liability company 1, new ideas were regularly generated and were implemented within a relatively 50 short period of time. In a joint-stock-company and co-operative such a rate of development would be much harder to achieve since any idea which required investment would necessitate meetings and agreement by others before being allowed to be implemented. Most diversified enterprises in corporate farms are related to agriculture such as contracting, storage etc. In several cases, attempts at diversification beyond such activity have failed due to a lack of market. Usually these enterprises had started during the centrally planned economy when it was not as necessary to find a market, appeal to customers and alter products as demand required. Thus, managers from this period, although now aware that enterprises failed due to lack of markets, did not have previous experience of this step when diversifying before the reform. Therefore, they now are experiencing a new requirement in making a business successful and facing new competition such as in the case of co-operative 2. In joint stock company 1, two enterprises had failed which had functioned pre-reform, the machinery was retained but no real attempt had been made to find a new market or alternative use for the machinery. Thus, in many cases marketing advice, such as in finding markets, suggesting new products or services to provide and helping to face competition and overcome it could be beneficial in promoting diversification. At present the diversification strategy has generally been to continue in something already existing or provide services as and when demanded by former members and other local persons, thus being more reactive than pro-active. The impression was that although agricultural incomes were declining, there was little strategy to counter it by diversifying out of the agricultural sector. The most creative companies in this respect were the limited liability companies studied where in the case of companies 1 and 2 an outsider to the previous co-operative or state form bought the farm and had activity outside agriculture. The most successful and entrepreneurial diversifiers after this were in joint stock company 2 which had previously had a limited liability structure, and management with a very large shareholding. Thus, where decisions are made by major stakeholders, who stand to gain the most from profit, there seems to be a greater drive to increase profit by diversifying. Thus, if corporate farms are to be encouraged, targeting liability companies and joint-stock companies with management teams having large shareholdings, and giving them marketing advice, and aid in obtaining grants, the greatest effect may be seen. POLICY SIMULATION Methodology and study materials (c) AI-based simulation and forecasting modules are prepared on the base of PIT for agricultural decision support. Regional simulation modules on the base of RENOAAR is worked out. New modules for education purpose also will be used. AI-based simulation: ٱ Deducing on Artificial Intelligence base the yield trends was already made in the earlier reporting periods. In this phase we made world market price forecasts. The correctness of forecasts for 8 years is critical low with a commercial data mining software. ٱ For world market prices (WATSIM, FAPRI, OECD) we have only incidental literature data for the correctness of these values. ٱ The index numbers (check list) of goal function controlled modelling was worked out, which are useful for ballasting, verifying and to interpret model results 51 Restrictions: ٱ The possibility of working out the county level simulation dataset was examined on the experiences of county level EAA`s (supported by USAID in 1997) and after the data structure of IDARA. The compatibility of IDARA databases and the experimental county level EAA`s is so high, that it`s no problem to extent the benchmarking logic of IDARA datasets to regional level. Forming the county level EAA data sets is not the task of the project. This could be carried out in the frame of the auxiliary planning and analysing systems of Hungarian IACS, as it was suggested by the Hungarian workgroup (March 2002). ٱ For working out the Hungarian RAUMIS database, the University of Bonn and the University of Gödöllő formed a consortium with a Hungarian market oriented company. ٱ After the check list it became clear, that along a new model application or along a new project it would be practical to integrate into the model the checking aspects which could cause a significant growth of efficiency instead of the current ex-post iterative and partially automated way. ٱ Some concurrent models (FAPRI, OECD), and the base datasets (FAO) shows significant differences in the case of Hungarian base data, which stalls the possibility of comparison. Proposal: the formation of an international agricultural economical metadata and database structure with online service (collecting experiences and Hungarian project to IHM Wif & multigroup_03, selection and censure is in progress) Comparative analysis of agricultural policies by fapri, oecd and idara forecasts ABSTRACT There is a vast number of different types of agricultural sector models and possible variations available for policy advice. Given this variety and increasing complexity of the model definitions quality management of data input as well as model output is becoming a crucial factor in model development. Detailed checks of aggregated and disaggregated base data contribute to a large extend to the overall quality of the model. Acknowledging the role of data quality management, the idara project has introduced a set of socio-economic indicators that can help to identify implausible behaviour of the simulation model i-sim. In order to validate the i-sim results comparisons with other model results (FAPRI, OECD) were undertaken. Unfortunately, the same checks could not be performed on base data and results from the other models, since the full data set was not available. It is thus suggested that for (online) publications the full set of data and balance sheets is supplied, including the code definitions. First comparisons between idara reference run results and the other models show significant deviations. It is thus suggested that sensitivity analysis may be performed in order to evaluate to what extend relative simulation results (∆ Scenario 1 / ∆ Scenario 2) are influenced by different reference situations. 52 Introduction The 5th Framework program idara Project (Integrated Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas) 8 had the objective – among others – with the i-sim Model (on the basis of MFSS999/CAPSIM, know how no.1.) to analyse the effects of joining the EU with different scenarios in Hungary (and also in the Czech Republic and in Poland) 10. In this context, come the results and the experiences of OECD and FAPRI forecasts for Hungary for 2006 in the case of an unchanged agricultural policy. In an additional study, effects of other policy scenarios will be presented too with comparison to the reference run/situation. The Research and Development objectives of the workgroup in Gödöllő University: The creation of a consistent base dataset and an online database on the basis of current fragmented sources. (know how) Adaptation Artificial Intelligence based estimations in the case of yield trends. (know how). The Quality assurance of modelling or working out a social-economical index value system (check list) for supporting the decision makers (politicians) in choosing which result vector (own or concurrent) is better, more authenticated, or more likely (know how). To take part in the adaptation and testing of i-sim (know how). Reference run and comparison For having a reference run, a detailed and consistency checked database (know how no.2.) was set, for the base year 1998 (3 years average), and as exogenous variables consists AI based forecasts for yields (know how no.3.), for world market prices (FAPRI), for inflation and for fallow land size till 2006 for Hungary. These components together with the quantified agricultural policy (without joining) lead to the comparative statistics of the agricultural sector model “i-sim”. The elasticity based i-sim Model using the basis leads to absolute values and changing rates/indexes from 1998 till 2006. Similar calculations were published in Agricultural Outlooks for 2006 by FAPRI and OECD (see 1 Illustration). Comparing earlier model-results may give important notices and advice for improving the reference-run. st Evaluation For closing a reference-run, or to be able to evaluate other alternative results / sources, detailed hypothesis (expectations, check lists for consistency) were set earlier the developments up, so background processing is still necessary. These expectations may be defined as a complex consistency criteria system (know how no.4.) or a social-economy index system (compare with Balanced Score Card). 8 Cf. idara Internet Seit http://www.agp.uni-bonn.de/agpo/rsrch/idara/idara_e.htm. 9 WITZKE, H.P. / VERHOOG, D. / ZINTL, A. (2001): Agricultural Sector Modelling: A New Medium-term Forecasting and Simulation System (MFSS99). Eurostat, Luxemburg 10 BAUER, Kai (2002): Documentation of the Idara Agricultural Sector Simulation Model for CEE Countries (isim). idara working paper 1/3., see: http://www.agp.uni-bonn.de/agpo/rsrch/idara/idara_e.htm. Date 27.7.2002. 53 Table 2. Comparing different results of OECD, FAPRI and idara for chosen products and activities Item Year Activity Dimension FAPRI 2001.IV. FAPRI 2002.VII. FAPRI12 11 FAO Online13 IDARA15 OECD14 Reference run Soft Wheat Activity Level 2006 1000ha 1172,9 1170,4 1140,0 - 1230,1 Soft Wheat Yield 2006 kg/ha 4340,0 4337,9 3900,0 - 5150,0 Soft Wheat Production 2006 1000t 5090,5 5077,1 4446,0 - 6335,2 Maize Activity Level 2006 1000ha 1386,0 1250,9 1160,0 - 1528,6 Maize Yield 2006 kg/ha 6000,0 6249,2 5850,0 - 4530,0 Maize Production 2006 1000t 8316,0 7817,2 6786,0 - 6924,6 Dairy Cows Activity Level 2006 1000 head 360,0 362,6 - - 366,7 Dairy Cows Yield 2006 Kg/head 6026,0 6022,7 - - 6700,0 Dairy Cows Milk Production 2006 1000t 2169,4 2183,7 - - 2456,6 Cattle Meat Prd. 2006 1000t 54,8 56,6 - - 121,9 Pigs Meat Prd. 2006 1000t - 538,7 - - 383,9 Soft Wheat Activity Level 1998 1000ha 1100,0 1100,0 1100,0 1183,5 1100,0 1,054.67 Soft Wheat Yield 1998 kg/ha 4550,0 4550,0 4550,0 4139,0 4550,0 4,040.00 Soft Wheat Production 1998 1000t 5005,0 5005,0 5005,0 4898,7 5005,0 4,260.85 Maize Activity Level 1998 1000ha 1100,0 1100,0 1100,0 1022,5 1100,0 1,065.67 Maize Yield 1998 kg/ha 5450,0 5450,0 5450,0 6007,8 5450,0 6,252.34 Maize Production 1998 1000t 5995,0 5995,0 5995,0 6142,7 5995,0 6,662.91 Dairy Cows Activity Level 1998 1000 head 379,0 379,0 - 379,0 382,0 407.27 Dairy Cows Yield 1998 kg/head 5558,2 5558,2 - 5558,2 5510,0 4,927.96 Dairy Cows Milk Production 1998 1000t 2106,6 2106,6 - 2106,6 2104,8 2,007.00 Cattle Meat Prd. 1998 1000t 65,0 65,0 - - 70,9 62.39 Pigs Meat Prd. 1998 1000t - 408,0 - - 298,3 582.37 Soft Wheat Activity Level 98-06 ∆% 6.6% 6.4% 3.6% 11.8% Soft Wheat Yield 98-06 ∆% -4.6% -4.7% -14.3% 13.2% Soft Wheat Production 98-06 ∆% 1.7% 1.4% -11.2% 26.6% Maize Activity Level 98-06 ∆% 26.0% 13.7% 5.5% 39.0% Maize Yield 98-06 ∆% 10.1% 14.7% 7.3% -16.9% Maize Production 98-06 ∆% 38.7% 30.4% 13.2% 15.5% Dairy Cows Activity Level 98-06 ∆% -5.0% -4.3% - -4.0% Dairy Cows Yield 98-06 ∆% 8.4% 8.4% - 21.6% Dairy Cows Milk Production 98-06 ∆% 3.0% 3.7% - 16.7% Cattle Meat Prd. 98-06 ∆% -15.7% -12.9% - 71.9% Pigs Meat Prd. - 32.0% - 28.7% Source: See foot-notes 11 FAPRI (2001): FAPRI Model, Temporary Results, Download: www.fapri.org Date: 09.11.2001 and 11.1.2002 12 FAPRI (2002): World Agricultural Outlook 2002, Staff Report 1-02, Ames. Download: www.fapri.org Date: 27.7.2002 13 FAOSTAT (2002): Agricultural Database, Rom. Download www.fao.org. Date 27.7.2002 14 OECD (2002): Agricultural Outlook 1998-2006, Paris 15 Average for 1998 (1997-1999) 54 It is expectable, that the values of the model results – on the basis of the predefined exogenous assumptions (check lists for undesired model behaviour) and on the basis of the endogenous equation system (i-sim), should be in the predefined green interval. The complex check lists criteria exclude the great mass of the autocracy of modelers. Important components of the check list: Land use balances, product balances, livestock-cycles, desaggregation of the sector to activities, (to regions,) in the case of reference and simulation year too. The product balances should stay firm in 2006, as the necessary quantity of seed, fodderand food components (e.g.: fodder ration) should be available. Product balances should be free from deviations. In addition of these extended ABTA rules, the check list system consists a series of plausibility tests: The changing rates of commercial volume of products (cf.: residual quantity) should be real (cf.: share of World market in a case of certain product quality) The share of consumption in market should be increasing in the contrast of the share of use on the farm (cf.: QA). The share of consumption meet and animal products should grow in the contrast of vegetable products, unless the rate of product prices increasing is higher than the rate of income increase. The average live weight of animals should be constant unless the development of genetics or the intensity of feeding don`t change significant. The livestock growth difference of the simulation year and the start year have to reflect the biological coefficients (cf.: imports). The fodder supply (e.g.: grass land) should change with the size of livestock. Investments in new technology and genetics have to be micro-economical incentive. Up till now, in OECD and FAPRI publications no balanced reports could be found. Therefore, it`s impossible to evaluate the followings: How big is the production-territory to divide? (compare it with: http://miau.gau.hu/miau/47/oecd0102.xls) Which activities are in the balances included (as predefined and residual values)? (see land use statistics: http://miau.gau.hu/nappalos/2001osz/ginfpotfea.xls, http://miau.gau.hu/miau/40/statisztikak/ ) The values for the base year from different sources are not identical, even they are quite diverse. The partial explanation for this is, that the product definition are not standardised (Broiler ≠ Poultry). 55 Figure 5, Comparison of wheat production changing 1998/2006 (percent), level, yield, production value in a case of an unchanged agricultural policy (FAPRI, OECD, idara) 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% % 10.0% Umfang 5.0% Ertrag Produktion 0.0% -5.0% FAPRI (2002) OECD IDARA -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Source: OECD (2002), FAPRI (2002), idara (2002), own figure with size, yield, production The forecasts for the yields are quite diverse for 2006 (see Figure 1.). E.g. After FAPRI wheat yield decreases by 14.3% from 1998 to 2006, while OECD Agricultural Outlook consists 13.2% growth. After idara the same value is 4.2% growth (AI based calculation). FAPRI trend can not be derived, as without EU accession the yields will be increasing because the economical background becomes more and more stable. The results of OECD shows relative great changes from 1998 to 2006. On the basis of the elasticity specified i-sim Model the changes are moderated. (At OECD not known how big the fallow land was set for 2006, while idara set this value for 50% of the reference year. Unfortunately the value of fallow land is not defined as a residual value. This means that the model doesn`t calculates at how many hectares it`s not worth to produce in microeconomical point of view.) The high complexity of the problem leads for the use of balanced reports (cf.: land use, product balance, animal cycle, disaggregation of the sector to activities, to regions, etc. cf.: IDARA online http://miau.gau.hu/toma). Therefore some calculations are unsure to evaluate, and in them the published values are not detailed enough for making balances. A relative high punctuality of forecasting requires the simulation-year to be as detailed and exact as the basis-year and all the constraints/checklist (from market, micro-economical and economical trends till policy depended mass and price structure) should be satisfied. The presented simplified comparison gives only advice, that Quality Management with the help of balances for the first side and with the help of plausible value intervals on the other side can be used for improving the model results. About the full publication of the results, leads for the choice to get in touch with the model developer and with other experts to improve more the quality of the data and the forecasts. It is suggested too, to develop an international standardised data set and index system. The possibility for ex-post checking the results of the forecasts should be a purpose. 56 The reference-run serves for the basis for comparing, for evaluating the effects of several policy scenarios against the reference year. As the results of the tested models are quite different from the reference run, the sensitivity analyses may have great role in the future. Through the sensitivity analyses it can be described whether the impact of political variables firms or weakens the non political variables. Suggestions To interpret the Hungarian situation at all times in EU based, it`s crucial to develop continuously the IDARA database with integrating into it the newly formed years. For real model competition an international social-economical database and the consolidation of the base categories would be necessary. An Artificial Intelligence based methodology In the EU5 frame project IDARA (QLRT-1526), the Gödöllő workgroup had the task to supply a consistent dataset for the i-sim sector model, and on the basis of it to determine trends (eg.:yield) for the next 8 years. According to the classical SPEL methodology the trends of the exogenous variables is given by expert decisions after the optional trends of the variables. This task is unique, requires theme specialised experts and iterated solution, which is slow and expensive. The Gödöllő workgroup - against the foregoing - has worked out an Artificial Intelligence based methodology, which changes the forecasting question to a similarity analysis question where not only one time series should be used describing only a relatively short and relatively heterogeneous economical situation of a country, then the use of all the connectable time series of all the other countries (see Appendix). The results - generated by this method – give, whether the given variable increases or decreases after 8 years and on the other hand relative frequency values are connected to this statement, which show the right answers ratio in the learning (function generating) and in the test period for the complex process. In this way the quick and safe forecasting process can be insured. For other antecedent it may mentioned the task from Autumn 2002, where forecasts had to be made for 2001 (in the case of missing statistics, basing on earlier incomplete datasets), which helped to define the cost and price components behind the consumer price of any products in Germany. For this, SPEL datasets were used, which contain the time series of cost components (natural values and price values), and the time series of the prices and the yields. The base of the forecast was the trend function of the spreadsheet handlers. The self-check was made by the difference of the sum of forecasted components and the forecasted resultant (total cost), if the difference was under a certain low level. After the experiences it can stated, that the price and quantity trends of the components are likely to change only in a reduced, squared level, and in this way the two way forecasting (components + resultant) gives an almost identical result for 1-2-3 years (with decreasing trend). In that case if the distance of the forecast was changed (for more than 10 years, 100 years) or some of the trends were changed with disproportionately dynamical, the difference of the sum of the components and the resultant became significant. Trend based expert opinions If the experiences are projected of the two tasks to each other, it can be recognised the next methodology in it: 1. Choose a certain problem, where numerous components and their resultant have time series (e.g.:yield, price, production value). 2. Define the set of (trend) functions for analysing. 57 3. Define the set of parameter values (length of time series, the weight of the elements in the time series, the time to forecast, the ratio of learning and test…). 4. Create a macro, which modifies each of the trend functions and parameters randomised (see MCM) or partly goal oriented (see GA, NN). 5. Calculate the difference of the forecasted values for the sum of the components and for the aggregated value. 6. Do it until the combinatorical space is covered or the difference decreases under an optional low value. 7. Log the parameters and results for all runs. Interpretation of the log: Supposing, that in the case of such a complex goal function (like difference minimization) the chance of over learning (solutions with little error, but inconsistent inner structure) is minimal, the settings for the less error, can be seen as the ideal forecast for the components and for the resultants as well. In this way, the correctness of trend function settings for the yields become authentic as the estimated cost components values reflect the production value. It is not worth to see only the ideal solution (minimal difference) of course, then the close sub-optimal cases, as depending on the frame conditions we may count on solutions with alternative structure with more or less chance. The extension of the solution In that case, when the components and the aggregate has no empirical connection (e.g.: the elements of the weather, or the shares on the stock market as more chaotic), and the optional constellations are excluded, but connection can be supposed between the components, forming the goal function is a serious intellectual challenge but not impossible. (The ideal goal function theoretically does not exist!) The goal function in this case is meant by the definable rules for the constellation of future optional situations, which can be proportionally formulated/incidental exact, or trends prescribing. With this, we get back to the classical problem of machine learning, or to the question, which exiting condition ensures, that the better solutions in learning phase prove good in the test phase with high probability. If the forecasting methods is handled as a separate module for each components, all the resource of the methodology of AI research can be integrated. Summary The introduced methodology assures in case of any problem to win complex (with ballasted correctness) solutions on a spreadsheet platform, with slight macro support. In this way on the field of agricultural sector modelling, the necessity of expert decisions in the case of exogenous variables can be omitted or can be reduced for choosing between the best solutions. This process is quick and authentic. 58 Results of the simulation i-sim Scenario Results Sectoral Income Composition of Production Value 6,000.00 Mio EUR 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 - BAS RRHU 1SHU 2SHU Gross Value Added at Market Prices Fodder Plant Inputs General Inputs 1. 2. 3. Production Value and Gross Value Added increased after accession Model shows not much differences in plant and general inputs, but higher fodder input in CEEC scenario Highest GVAM in CEEC scenario mainly caused by quota level (milk,sugb) 1 i-sim Scenario Results Production Structure I Share of Animal and Plant Production 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Value of Plant Production 50% Value of Animal Production 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% BAS RRHU 1SHU 2SHU Share of animal production on Agricultural Production Value will increase in 1SHU most, because of restrictive milk quotas and lower premia for cattle 8 59 i-sim Scenario Results Production Structure II Land use 100% Only very limited changes in Land allocation between Scenarios: Slight increase in Cereals and Oilseeds due to Direct Payments Fodder Crops 80% Vegetables/Fruits/ Prennials 60% Other Arable Crops 40% Oilseeds 20% Cereals 0% BAS RRHU 1SHU 2SHU Share of Animal Products Drastic Changes in Animal Production: - CAP favours Beef and Milk Production - Higher price level and quotas set incentives for Dairy Production - High market pressure on Pork and Poultry Production (lower EU price level) and removal of national subsidies 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Other Animal Products Milk Poultry Pork Beef BAS RRHU 1SHU 2SHU 9 i-sim Scenario Results Quota Effects: MILK Activity Level DCOW 500.00 450.00 Rising yields in combination with Quota restriction leads to lower Activity Level than without quotas 400.00 1000 hds 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 BAS RRHU 1SHU 2SHU Gross Production DCOW 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1000 t Gross Production is determined by Quota, binding restriction! 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 BAS 60 RRHU 1SHU 2SHU 10 i-sim Scenario Results Quota Effects: MILK Effects of different Policy Scenarios 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% Revenues 40.0% 30.0% Activity Level 20.0% Production Value 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% DEV EU/REF DEV CEEC/REF Gross Production / Domestic Supply -20.0% -30.0% Revenues (EURO/hd) rise in both scenarios relative to the reference situation (no accession), but due to quota restriction, activity levels and gross production go down in 1SHU (EU proposal) 11 i-sim Scenario Results Direct Payments: Soft Wheat Effects of different Policy Scenarios 160.0% 140.0% Revenues 120.0% Activity Level 100.0% 80.0% Production Value 60.0% 40.0% Gross Production / Domestic Supply 20.0% 0.0% DEV EU/REF DEV CEEC/REF •Revenues and Production value rise due to Premia and higher EU price level •Revenues are higher than in reference situation for all scenarios •Activity levels remain almost unchanged due to higher revenue increases in other crop activites (Oilseeds) 12 61 i-sim Scenario Results EU Market Pressure: Pork Activity Level PORK 7,000.00 1000 hds 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 BAS RRHU 1SHU 2SHU Effects of different Policy Scenarios 0.0% Pork production is reduced due to internal market pressure (low EU-15 Prices) No differences between the scenarios -5.0% DEV EU/REF DEV CEEC/REF Revenues -10.0% -15.0% Activity Level -20.0% -25.0% Production Value -30.0% -35.0% Gross Production / Domestic Supply -40.0% -45.0% 13 -50.0% i-sim Scenario Results EU Market Pressure: Poultry Activity Level POUL 200.00 180.00 160.00 1000 hds 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 BAS RRHU 1SHU 2SHU Effects of different Policy Scenarios 0.0% Market pressure on poultry production not as drastic as on pork DEV EU/REF -1.0% -2.0% Activity level increases around 5% compared with reference -3.0% DEV CEEC/REF Revenues Activity Level Production Value -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% 62 Gross Production / Domestic Supply 14 Conclusions from a Hungarian Perspective • • • • • • • Sectoral income is rising after accession Production structure changes mostly for the animal activities away from pork and poultry to milk and beef Production Activities that gain from accession: Beef, milk (revenues only), cereals, oil seeds, potatoes, sugar beet (revenues only) Production Activities that get under pressure after accession: Pork, (poultry) Quotas significantly hinder competitiveness and necessary structural changes For the products with the sharpest market pressure there are no direct payments (Pork, poultry) Compromise proposal achieves similar level of production with lower costs to EU Budget => advantage for negotiations 15 63 Policy Implications Short Term (Negotiations) • • • Quotas and ceilings are more important than Direct Payments Maximise flexibility in measures so that competitiveness and structural change can be improved/supported Think cross-sectoral, since serious welfare effects on other sectors if allocation is misdirected. Mid Term (Post-Accession) • • Form political alliance to abandon quotas Use national envelopes for policies that support structural changes Use rural development measures to increase alternative employment opportunities Pressure on agriculture will rise with quality competition from EU-15 Further investigate regional effects • • • 16 b) Strengths and weaknesses Main results of the Hungarian case-studies In formulating our proposals we use more sources. We were helped by the study on current practices and institutions of Hungarian rural development. We employed studies on practices of EU member states, among which those about diversification were especially useful. We prepared case-studies in three selected sub-regions (Tapolca, Kunszentmiklós and Nyírbátor) on the practice of rural development. These case studies have based upon processing of relevant statistics, collection of data at appropriate level and in the field interviews. When selecting sub-regions, our main principle were that sub-regions should be: - located in different regions of Hungary and differently developed. The different categories were those of determined by the referring publications of the Central Statistical Office as mentioned before. By the CSO, in order to determine development clusters for the sub-regions 9 indicators16 were taken into account, which well characterise their economic and social position and the general level of development. 16 These indicators are: a, Registered capital of foreign companies per capita, 1998 b, Personal Income Tax basis per capita, 1998 c, Personal Income Tax basis per capita, 1998/1988 d, The number of operating business units per thousand inhabitants, 1998 e, The number of operating business units, 1998/1995 f,. Unemployment rate, 1998 64 Using the CSO’s indicators the selected three sub-regions fall into the following categories: - Tapolca – developing Kunszentmiklós – catching-up Nyírbátor – lagging-behind Using the adjusted OECD methodology we selected 92 rural sub-regions which were grouped upon the above CSO-method into 3 categories. Namely, we contracted the two most developed and the two less developed groups. According to this classification, sub-region Tapolca belongs to the developed, sub-region Kunszentmiklós to the medium and sub-region Nyírbátor to the backward category respectively. That means, there is no shift in category Besides sub-region based case-studies several statistical evaluations have been made upon the 92 rural sub-regions. In the course of this evaluation we tried to typify sub-regions using clusteranalysis methods. These attempts proved to be unsuccessful, mainly due to the high density of urban-rural areas, which makes it difficult to use reactive indices. Based upon the 3 above groups of sub-regions, we tried to refine our classification taking also into account the level of agricultural employment. Albeit this led to a duplication in the number of categories (viz. 6 instead of 3), there was merely one region found among developed rural subregions with an above-the-average agricultural employment rate. Sub-region Tapolca As far as tourism is concerned, the location of the region is one of the most favourable in the country. The coast of lake Balaton is more suitable for the classic forms of tourism (camping, hotel etc.), whilst the uplands of Balaton provide an excellent scenery for agroand village-tourism. Due to the establishment of the Balaton Uplands National Park and the notable architectural heritage of many villages it is becoming a more and more popular target. A chief concern of the sub-region is that the season of classic tourism is very short and very vulnerable to the weather. It is one of the main tasks to extend the season. Village tourism and wine tourism are good possibilities for that, since they are not very dependent on the weather. Tourism in the sub-regions is closely related to wine growing. The regions Badacsony and Balatonmellék (both are in the Tapolca sub-region) produce well-recognised and evaluated wines. Vine growing and wine production play an important role in providing employment as well. Through the integration of vine growers in the traditional wine producing regions (including processing, bottling and marketing) the market-demand for standard quality wine varieties could be met in tradable volumes. This would accrue extra added value. For the time being, however, the marketing of the region’s viticulture is somewhat behind the other historic wine producing regions (Tokaj, Villány), which are actively engaged in marketing. The relative obscurity of certain villages has their backlashes as well. For example there are significant holes in the region’s road network. This prevents the integration of certain villages (those situated in the Dörögdi basin). According to the assessment of the Tapolca Regional Association 26 km new asphalt road should be built and further 36 km should be reconstructed to facilitate usage by heavy transport vehicles. g, Net Migration Difference per thousand inhabitants, 1990-1998 h, Number of telephone lines per thousand inhabitants, 1998 i, Number of cars per thousand inhabitants, 1998 65 The popularity of 8-10 villages among foreigners and urban residents who acquire houses there has a lot to do with the serious demographic problem (depopulation) in the small (200-700 inhabitants) and very small (50-200 inhabitants) villages. This “crowding out” of local residents is particularly serious as many municipalities are lacking reorganisation plans, which is necessary for the construction of new dwellings. As the quality and quantity (20% of the total) of arable land is below national average, the traditional sectors of agriculture are downsizing. Due to the lack of incentives for the conversion to less intensive agricultural practices, extensive land use is also scaling back (sheep husbandry). Fragmented land ownership relations also limit the possibility of profitable farming. Due to restrictions imposed on the extraction industries (silicate) the associated industrial sectors are also declining. The industrial activities of past decades left a number of distortions in the landscape yet to be re-cultivated. Sub-region Kunszentmiklós Natural endowments gave rise to an exceptionally rich flora and fauna, which is a characteristic feature of this geographical unit. Environmental protection is of high importance in the region, the National Park of the Kiskunság playing a prominent role in protection of its flora and. The natural values of the sub-region are a part of one of the most extensive contiguous environmentally protected areas of Europe, which provides an excellent opportunity for ecoexcursions and hiking. In front of such a background it is a major problem that the facilities for tourism are not developed enough to generate income. There are also deficiencies in public utilities, sewage network in particular. There is a shortage of accommodation places both in terms of quality and number. The first steps have already been taken to launch organic farming in the region. Training was started under the auspices of the farmer association (gazdakör) and a significant number of farmers took up ecological farming in horticulture. Extensive, pasture based sheep-farming (which is an important land use pattern here) can be considered as ecological farming! The other side of the coin is that poor fertility is typical of a great share of the region’s land. Increasing number of plots are afflicted by alkalisation and sand-drift. Consequently yields are low, and the profitability of the agricultural sector is extremely poor. Moreover, the entire territory of the region is exposed to flood and inland waters accompanied by unfavourable water balance in general. Land and estate market of the region are under-developed, due to which the increase of asset value is limited. The proportion of Environmentally Sensitive Areas is high, which raises problems concerning agricultural production and the protection of natural environment. The lack of compensation payments for extensive agricultural production has been against the application of sustainable practices. A great deal of the sub-region’s opportunities concern the market of bio- and organic products, herbs. The interest in products manufactured exclusively in Hungary (so called Hungarikums) and in regional specialities is rising. If it will extend sufficiently, then it might provide an alternative opportunity for the utilisation of natural endowments. 66 Also the introduction of the National Agri-Environment Programme might provide for a preferential treatment of Environmentally Sensitive Areas. Husbandry of autochthonous animal varieties, fresh-water fish breeding and afforestation are objectives supported by the agricultural governance. As regards industry, the region’s closeness to Budapest, cheep labour and the existing stock of estates enable the region to take part in the Industrial Park Programme launched by the Hungarian government. To improve the grade of processing of agricultural products various resources have been made available recently for production capacity extension and further resources will be available in the near future. The Budapest-Kelebia (north-south) Euro Transit railway trunk-line crosses the region at the junctions of Kunszentmiklós and Szabadszállás, which makes the sub-region easily accessible. Until now, however low quality, traditional mass-product manufacturing has been characterising the region in general, there was a lack of innovative investments. This was both a reason and a result for a workforce-drain of Budapest, Dunaújváros and Kecskemét, which makes the population of the sub-region more and more inactive. Ageing speeded up simultaneously. Sub-region Nyírbátor The region located in the Southwest part of the Nyírség (eastern extreme of Hungary) boasts rich and diversified flora and fauna containing a world-famous fallow-deer reservoir. The amended legislation concerning hunting rights declared the land and the forest owners the beneficiaries of hunting rights (opposed to the former practice benefiting the state). The utilisation of the concerned territories for hunting purposes is therefore cluttered and unpredictable. With regard to hunting, the lack of professionals as well as the deficiencies in infrastructure and services can be listed additionally. Associated untapped resources lie in the region’s wood processing and small game breeding fields. As for the other land use options, degraded sandy soils mainly characterise the region. These soils have very poor fertility due to their low nutrient content, structure and acid reaction. Among plant species it is only suitable for certain fruits (apple) and vegetables. Besides its natural values, clerical tourism attracts a considerable mass of people year by year, the centre of which is the religious pilgrimage place, Máriapócs renown across Europe. As cultural centre, Nyírbátor plays a prominent role in the life of the region as well as the broader vicinity, some of its programmes (music festival) and the settlement itself enjoying national popularity and international repute. Utilisation of the existing tourism endowments is however not yet sufficient due to various reasons. Besides its far-off location it is also a problem that a single, well-managed profile does not exist, external communication performance is poor. There is a shortage of infrastructure serving tourists, as there is also a shortage of tourist information on the region The geographical location of the region, its closeness to the Romanian and Ukrainian borders might on the other hand provide a favourable advantage. Intensified merchandise activities and fledging transit traffic are expected to result from the strengthening of relations across the border. This might make use of the region’s substantial workforce surplus, which has a qualification level roughly on the national average. 67 On the other hand presently the sub-region suffers more from its location than benefits from it. It is quite remote from the substantial national road and railway transit lines. As regards to water and air infrastructure, they do not exist at all. Until now - as the complex economic difficulties (lack of employment opportunities and income) afflicted the eastern part of the country in particular – the overall economic situation was deteriorating. Internal demand has been stagnating at a rather low level with regard to services as well as industrial goods and prime necessities. Partly due to system change the number of unemployed grew substantially. The proportion of persistently jobless is high within the total number of unemployed. The problem of unemployment is intertwined with that of the roma minority, which represents some 20% of the population. Competitive companies/entrepreneurs of larger scale do not exist in the region thus the role of integration normally performed by such companies is also not fulfilled. Biggest shortage is in trade, services and finance companies. EU accession -hopefully taking place in the near future- might boost economic activities in the region (industrial park). Some conditions are supportive to the exploitation of these possibilities (workforce surplus, closeness of borders), whilst other fields seem to require further development (infrastructure). If the economic rebound fails to materialise the progressing segmentation of the local society and the problems of the roma minority could lead to a situation, which is hard to handle. A favourable solution requires government level assistance as well. It is a warning sign, that within the active population there is a massive emigration out of the region among the young and the higher qualified. This process is hard to reverse. Problems of the regions – lessons learned from the interviews The disadvantageous rural sub-regions of Hungary have some common characteristic like being peripheral or sub-peripheral regions, having poor soil quality, underdeveloped infrastructural background and on account of that two further phenomena: lack of investment and high unemployment, out of which unqualified and Romany unemployment is dominant. Other unfavourable demographic trends are characteristics of the scrutinised sub-regions, among others the ageing of population (around 40% economically active in comparison with the national average of 51%), high migration of the young better qualified generation due to disadvantageous remuneration and the poor quality of living conditions. The better educated part of the young generation normally do not return after graduation, the qualified industrial and administrative workers tend to migrate to towns too. Locally there is hardly any possibility to get a qualification based job. The depopulation of small villages is particularly severe problem in the Western and Northern part of the country. Owning to unfertile soil and small average plot sizes agriculture provides only low income and infrastructural problems impede setting up of non-agricultural activities. There are some environmental-related problems as well. Underdeveloped sewage system, lack of canalisation, the scarcity of purification capacity and wastewater collection endanger the quality of the groundwater, which is particularly important considering the fact that significant parts of all explored sub-regions have been defined as highly sensitive area within the National AgroEnvironmental Program, since all of the three evaluated sub-regions has territories situated in 68 National Park reserves. Furthermore, this fact means that restraints set up by the National Park limiting the potential of intensive farming. Independently of this situation the potential of extensive farming and tourism is not utilised by the sub-regions. On the other hand we also felt that there are unrealistic expectations concerning rural tourism. In our view rural tourism has only good perspective in those areas of the country, where there is a real attraction (landscape, architectural heritage, thermal bath) for tourists. Rurality as such is not enough for this purpose. All sub-regions in question have deficiencies in management and entrepreneurial skills which is exacerbated by the lack of guidance abilities in the municipalities. The deficiencies of the wider defined infrastructure (road network, bicycle path, internet connection etc.) is also a common characteristic of the sub-regions. Opinions about current and future policies are different subject to the occupation, education, and social profile of the respondent. MARD office managers (officers of the county MARD bureau and the so called subregional managers) emphasised that from 2002 onwards all the applications and tenders are available, but rural people have to use it effectively. The applications of recent years up to now show the poor qualification of the applicants. So, the enhancement of participation and qualification is needed in order to create a mainstream of development. Naturally, the interviewees in the agricultural bureaus were familiar mainly with the running agriculture-related policies. Their knowledge about pure rural-development programmes was rather scarce. By contrast, sub-regional managers were uniformly well informed about each rural development programme running in their respective regions. The regular training course organised by MARD for these managers has an important role in this. Interviewees confirmed uniformly that the effectiveness of current rural development policy is reduced by the poor application skills, which hampers participation in development projects. Fund allocation policy of the Ministry is felt to be consistent. Applicants have been unsuccessful mainly due to lack of required own fund. Moreover lot of the potential applicants have not a distinct profile yet. We can conclude, that although Rural Development Fund as a resource can reach a plenty of people via rural development managers, people have a very limited interest in application. This is due partly to the very limited financial resource available for the support of individual measures. As a result of this limitation, the required 50 % own share is far too much for the farmers, entrepreneurs. On the other hand there is a severe lack of entrepreneurial skills. MARD supports alternative ways of farming instead of traditional one within the framework of rural development, but people have doubts about these programs on account of previous bad experiences. Of course some new profiles are successful. Development of food processing industry counteracts the need of local employment, then technical changes replace the working force. In addition small processors employing 5-10-20 persons also don't solve the problem. With technical development qualification of employees has to increase proportionally. Developments try to enhance the quality of human resources against number of employed people. All of the interviewee admitted that agro-environmental policy applied in Hungary is appropriate. The standards are just as strict as in any EU country. However the management of household waste and sewage is not sufficient, there is no infrastructure for selective waste collection and there are far to few cleaning sites. 69 Views related to involvement of different actors and institutional levels in rural policy confirmed that the county is still an important level, which might provide tools for sub-regions to remedy most significant problems like Romas and unemployment. This is mainly due to their solid administrative, professional basis and past experience, which make them an indispensable factor in rural policy. Settlements on the other hand (local government) can very often play a decisive role through sub-region-managers or local authorities. It was felt that the newly established sub-regional level does not have the necessary tools for efficient functioning. Certain public institutions (e.g. building authorities, secondary education, communal tasks, certain agricultural schemes) could function more efficiently if arranged on the sub-regions’ level. The required funds for the setting up of the institutions should be made available too. In general higher administrative levels were felt to be not appropriate for the management of rural development programmes. The lately introduced regional (NUTS 2) level was seen as a yetnot integrated part of public administration. The competency of this level is restricted to territorial development rather than rural development. Motivation is the most important in a sub-region. Development is not importable into a subregion from outside in case internal mover is missing. The sustainability requires locally generated, inward motivation and bottom-up based developments Interviewees agreed that current EU financial sources are not suitable for entrepreneurs. Although much is heard about them, but in practice these funds are not accessible. In 1999 during the elaboration of the SAPARD programme most of the local stakeholders, civil organisations were interviewed. The proposals made by them have been incorporated into the sub-regional SAPARD plans, so this feedback was successful. However, when it should have come to the implementation of the SAPARD plan nothing has happened. Actually the policy pursued by the government is the very opposite of the SAPARD principles. After the excessive expectations a great deal of dissatisfaction, mistrust and frustration was triggered by the delay of the SAPARD programme in the sub regions and questioned the credibility of such schemes to a great extent. Rules of PHARE-funds differ from the needs of this level, since the fund is practically not available for entrepreneurs. Availability, processing time, decision-making are extremely cumbersome making entrepreneurial off take impossible. The high proportion of required own sources also hamper the off take significantly. There are some well-known projects carried out in the border regions within the framework of PHARE CBC. The reputation of further EU funded pre-accession programmes such as ISPA or INTERREG is rather limited since these programmes are based on a wider geographical basis. On the other hand sub regions do not or are too sketchy to articulate their own profile. MARD’s current opinion is that the state has to tackle some public tasks as research institutes relating to rural activities (development special agricultural products, marketing activity, education etc.). During transition period these kind of activities have been in virtually neglected. The government aims to provide the Hungarian rural population (2,5 million people) with this type of services . Agricultural producers push for a more significant support of marketing and service cooperatives than they have been supported so far. Both members of the general public and administrators of MARD supposed that more measures should be launched on the local, or even municipal level. Specialised tourist services should be supported and the norms of such services should be standardised (e.g. handicapped 70 tourism). Always the supported objective has to determine the administrative level, where the measure is launched. 71 c) Experience in EU15 Case studies from EU experience This section consists of firstly of case studies of diversifiers country by country. Secondly it considers particular forms of diversification, popular in Western Europe such as agrotourism and food processing. UK diversifiers Sally Robinson, from Yorkshire, UK set up her mail order business with the help of an EC diversification grant. She decided to set up this type of business since it suited her rural location (a hamlet with a population of 30, and no services) and fitted in with her domestic commitments which included a bed and breakfast business. In spring 1999, she decided to sell bras after having looked at the possibilities of garden furniture and jewellery. She identified bras as being similar to CDs and books which are best-selling e-commerce items since “They are light to post and go through a letterbox and yet they are not time sensitive like other fashion items”. After looking on the internet, she found no comparable sites to that which she intended, selling a broad selection of brand name bras in larger sizes which are only stocked in the largest department stores. The process of applying for the grant and setting up the site took 6 months, and amplebosom.com went live on the net in November 1999. Since then she has taken on 4 employees. The business is run from converted outbuildings. Problems were faced in bra suppliers not meeting her vision of an internet business so that she struggled to meet the rapid turnaround that online purchasers expected. “We have difficulty getting stock in. The manufacturers want forward orders, but I can’t predict for that”. To solve this she holds stocks of all items so that she can meet expectations of next-day delivery. She also has a paper catalogue which accounts for half the turnover of the business, but greater overheads. She also markets the website through PR, using events as opportunities for publicity. An example of this was when she had coloured envelopes printed with “amplebosom.com”. She turned postmen’s complaints to her advantage by issuing a press release about them that led to her appearing on local television. Within 14 months of starting the business she was breaking even. With regard to running the business she says “ It is important to know your break even points, which I do......Starting an internet business is like getting married – you go in expecting it will be alright and stick it out until it is” On starting a business she says “ Don’t give up your day job, and be prepared to work for nothing until you get your idea off the ground”(www.bbc.co.uk, 2000) The bed and breakfast business has been running for 15 years. It also provides evening meals and packed lunches if desired. Three farm walks have been created for guests. There are also four self catering cottages, which are the result of a converted stone barn. One has one bedroom, another, two while the other two each have three bedrooms. These last two cottages can be combined to sleep 10. Guests in the self-catered accommodation can have dinner and breakfast if desired and can pre-order groceries (valleyviewfarm.com). This is an example of a successful diversifier who carefully researched her market before starting the business, and considered her location when deciding how to operate and market the business. Her ability to identify clients’ demands for next-day delivery and her way of overcoming the problem with suppliers is illustrative of her knowledge of the market and her flexibility in overcoming difficulties. She has an ability to turn a threat into an opportunity as demonstrated by 72 turning a complaint into a PR opportunity; such a characteristic is highly beneficial to the enterprise. The use of old farm buildings for both the accommodation and business is an example of utilising surplus resources. Jenny and Brian have a 30 ha small holding. They had been contract rearing a flock of ostriches, but at the end of the contract, the customer was unable to pay them. The cost of rearing the birds was 50% greater than the revenue gained from their slaughter. Realisation of this led the couple to look at becoming retailers. The move to becoming retailers incurred some costs for packaging, refrigeration, marketing and food hygiene courses. With the help of a consultant, they decided to sell directly to consumers at farmers’ markets. They realised that this could be a difficult step initially since ostrich meat is considered to be a luxury product by consumers who also treat it with some suspicion. To help overcome customer reluctance, they allowed people to try free cooked samples as well as providing information about the healthy properties of the meat. Sales grew quickly and they now regularly sell ostrich meat at farmers’ markets in the North West of England. The move turned around what would have been a £50 loss per bird to a £150 profit (http://www.pendle.gov.uk). The ingredients to the success of the diversified venture have been consumer awareness and the creation of a marketing strategy. An example of a successful diversifier in Scotland is George Lawrie who runs a 204 ha mixed farm and is a founder member and director of Tayforth machinery ring. Supplying machinery to the ring has justified having a full-time member of staff employed on the farm which on its own would employ only a part-time staff member. One of the reasons for the success of the contracting work is that many local farmers for whom they provide services are vegetable growers, whose machinery and labour requirements tend to peak at different times to the on-farm arable production. Thus, the demand for contracting services complements the on-farm requirements, enabling full utilisation of surplus machinery and labour resources. Ring membership also provides the farm with additional labour and machinery at peak times, so that full use can be made of weather opportunities (http://www.saos.co.uk/index.htm). This diversification is successful due to the complementarity of the contracting services with the agricultural business. Graham and Caroline Hamilton farm 480ha in the Pentland Hills regional park, 15 miles from central Edinburgh. Most of their stock are sheep, with a few beef cattle also raised. They began to diversify in early 2000 by direct–retailing their meat, and in July 2000, started to sell their meat at Edinburgh Farmers Market. Since then, the Pentland Hills Regional Park authority realised the opportunities provided by collective direct-retail of produce, with this in mind they co-ordinated the formation of ‘Pentland Hills Produce’, a group of seven farmers including the Hamiltons. This initiative has facilitated the development of a label and logo for ‘Pentland Hills Produce’ for use in promotion channels including a web site (www.pentland-hills-produce.co.uk) where each farmer is able to individually promote their own goods under the collective banner. When advertised under a collective banner, advertising costs per producer are greatly reduced. The group has also created its own quality regulations, beyond those of farm assured produce. This has helped in marketing, both as providing additional assurance to customers and in defining a regional identity for the products. For the Hamiltons, diversification through direct retailing has resulted in direct benefits to the agricultural operation since the price fetched per lamb has increased, augmenting overall net farm income by 30%. One of the reasons for this has been that previously they had tended to be penalised by processors to whom they sold the lamb since the breed they run tends to struggle to meet weight and conformation regulations stipulated by processors. Selling directly to consumers has meant that processors have been removed from the chain, thus, penalties are not incurred (http://www.saos.co.uk/index.htm). The lessons to be learnt from this enterprise are that collective action can be beneficial for marketing farm products both by sharing advertising costs and through the ability to create a local brand. 73 A case study of a business which suffered some problems and tried to overcome them is that of Jim and Kathy who have four agricultural businesses. They bought into a family business which built, serviced and hired out off-road vehicles for the leisure market and operated on land owned by one of their family businesses. The business had several shareholders, of which Kathy and Jim were the only ones working in it, alongside employees. The manager had some independence since Kathy and Jim concentrated on their other businesses. This strategy led to the business having financial difficulties and an extension agent visited them to try and overcome the problems. It became apparent that the problems had arisen due to no-one knowing accurate costs or profitability for any of the three parts of the business, inadequate administrative controls, a lack of clear responsibilities for different parts of the business, a lack of leadership and direction felt by the staff due to Kath and Jim rarely being there, the business was product driven with little account taken for clients and their needs, and the manager lacked sufficient administrative, staff management and marketing skills. These problems appeared to have arisen as a result of Kathy and Jim assuming that the manager shared their entrepreneurial attitude, which he did not. As a result of the rare visits of Kathy and Jim, the staff were unwilling to share information with them that could be poorly received. Finally, Kathy and Jim had dealt with the business in a reactionary way rather than having a long-term strategy for it. The extension agent helped them to develop a strategy and to identify staff who lacked skills or had a poor attitude. The result was that two staff members were ‘released’ and persons with stronger skills recruited in their place. Computerised accounts were installed, providing a more accurate portrayal of the business’s costs and profitability. Finally, the enterprise was viewed from the angle of the client and presentation and marketing were improved upon (www.pendle.gov.uk). Ireland In an Irish survey, only 5% of farms were full-time farms, the rest were diversified, mostly through off-farm employment. The research included several case studies such as Michael and Eileen who have a 32ha beef farm, a small pub and shop and provide some agricultural contracting services. The pub and farm had come down through the family. The pub is small and provides for everyday living, income from contracting is used for ‘extra costs’ while the farm income is reinvested in the farm. With these sources of income, they feel that they have a reasonable standard of living (Kinsella et al,2000). Thus, in this case, the diversified enterprise (pub) was inherited and only the contracting enterprise started by the household themselves. It appears that the motivators for diversifying have been to provide income for the family to survive since the farm income is used purely for reinvestment on farm. Another couple, Sean and Diana have a 30ha farm which was inherited. Before inheriting the farm, Sean had worked as a builder and had gained skills in the trade. In the first five years of having the farm, while building it up, Sean worked as a builder off-farm. Since then, he has provided construction services according to demand and his inclinations. However, as the farm will not support the couple on its own, construction provides a means to gain additional income as necessary. Diana, has an off-farm job in a local shop, which also provides additional income (Kinsella et al,2000). This couple illustrate the need for diversification where a farm is too small to provide sufficient income. Previous skills and experience have been an important influence in determining the form of diversification. Since the study mentions that he is asked to provide construction services, this indicates that business comes through word-of-mouth, which suggests that client relationships are important in maintaining demand for services since in a small rural community, provision of a poor service would rapidly eradicate business as word spread. Thus, success in this case is linked to good relationships with customers and to the provision of a good service. 74 Sweden A Swedish study indicated that in many cases, diversification occurs as a result of low farm incomes. Often this is because the farms are too small for specialisation to be a successful strategy and in some cases farming strategy itself is somewhat changeable. For example, one cited household generated most of its income from employment. The spouse was about to open a cloth shop with a friend of hers in order to earn more income. Previously, the household has been partners in a racehorse which generated some income, afterwards they were partners in two breeding horses from which they earned little income. At the time of being surveyed, they had just sold their bulls but were planning to restock. At peak times they would like to be without stock but at other times they feel that they would like to expand the farm to the point where it could support them fully (Djurfeldt and Waldenström,1999). Insecurity about the future of farming and incomes related to it such as from diversified enterprises like retail outlets of farm produce, has led some households to gain income from off-farm employment in order to be sure of an income source. This is illustrated by one Swedish household which made the decision not to expand their vegetable cultivation and retailing business in which both the head of household and spouse could work full-time, but rather for the spouse to continue holding off-farm employment in order to provide a secure income source (Djurfeldt and Waldenström,1999). Thus, here, pessimism appears to reign over both agricultural and diversified enterprises. For some households, risk aversion is preventing them from expanding diversification, preferring instead to have a secure income from off-farm employment. In Sweden, diversification has been encouraged by allowing profits and losses to be exchanged between an agricultural enterprise and a diversified enterprise, providing tax advantages. At the beginning of the 1990s, tax legislation changed such that it was no longer possible for wages and earnings to offset losses in the farming business, resulting in the cessation of an implicit subsidy to farm households with off-farm employment. Thus, diversifying through enterprise creation has been a means by which this loss can be overcome (Djurfeldt and Waldenström,1999). Germany In Germany, direct marketing of farm products has been on the increase, largely due to an increase in demand for direct marketing on the part of consumers who in the wake of food scares are becoming increasingly concerned with the origin of their food. In Eastern Germany, large farms which are mostly co-operatives have become increasingly concerned with direct marketing, particularly of meat. Direct marketing is dependent on locality since it tends to be more successful in economically thriving places where consumers are more concerned with quality than price in contrast to disadvantaged areas which require a greater sales effort. Thus, this type of diversification, unless on a large scale with a good distribution network, is not necessarily suitable for rural development since in areas most in need of development, it is more difficult to make the enterprise successful. The average direct marketing farm in Germany employs one worker in the enterprise, thus, it is useful in creating jobs (Wirthgen and Kuhnert, 1997). Agrotourism in UK, Spain, Denmark 75 A study of farm-based accommodation in three English counties (Dorset, Lincolnshire, Staffordshire) suggests that in some cases, agricultural policy which limits agricultural production, such as the imposition of quotas, can be a factor in the decision to diversify. For example, Mr. P, who farmed 30ha with a 30 cow dairy herd started a bed and breakfast and self-catering accommodation enterprise as a result of dairy quotas limiting his capacity to expand the dairy herd, thereby undermining the agricultural business’s chances of survival. Bed and breakfast was started in 1985 (quotas were imposed in 1984). As farm income declined, a spare building was converted into self-catering holiday accommodation in 1987, as part of a strategy to stay farming. Now the accommodation business is becoming the main source of income and further conversions of redundant buildings are planned (Evans and Ilbery, 1992). Accommodation enterprises are frequently initiated by a spouse. This is partly due to spouses providing some labour to the farm, which can be combined easily with an on-farm enterprise. Often farm houses in UK are large so that accommodation provides a means to gain income while utilising it fully. It can also provide a means to counteract feelings of loneliness experienced by some farm wives during peak periods of farm work when heads of household typically work long hours but spouses are still required to be on the farm. It is also used occasionally to counterbalance the effects of children leave home or even when they start school (Evans and Ilbery, 1992). A study of agrotourist enterprises in Catalunia indicated that the main reason for initiating the enterprise was to increase agricultural income and, secondly to utilise surplus resources i.e. spare rooms. The synergy between agriculture and agrotourism results in low entry barriers and makes it a logical choice of diversified enterprise. Agrotourism is generally preferred over rural hotels since it utilises the farmhouse, and thus, tends to have low entry barriers due to the lower level of investment required. It is also chosen since it provides the spouse with employment, saving her from having to seek a job off-farm. A participant in a survey carried out explained the choice of enterprise “ I see myself capable of cleaning and cooking, this I do well, because of this I prefer to do something with rural tourism over other activities”. (Francès and Méndez, 2001). Under the objective 5b programme in Denmark, one of the seven policy measures was that of promoting the generation of alternative income to farm households from agrotourism. Between 1990 and 1993, 68 farms received EU and national investments subsidies to this end. The farmers themselves contributed 56% of the total investment. Mostly finance was used to renovate or establish accommodation, and some to provide tourist facilities such as tennis courts, farm shops, farm museums etc. Generally, the larger farms which generated greater agricultural incomes were those which gained higher incomes from agrotourism. This was postulated to be due to them having larger scale activities and a greater capital availability. Households which already held off-farm employment tended to be less ambitious with regard to the scale and scope of their diversified enterprise. Some of the farm households participating in the programme found that their own investment contribution was greater than they expected. The main reason for this was put down to a lack of advisory services during the setting-up period. Many of them allocated more time to the enterprise than expected. The very small islands in Denmark are often isolated from consultants and other intermediaries and as a result many missed out on the potential of the programme (Hjalager, 1996). . More than half of those participating in the programme experienced marketing problems during their first and second years of operation. For the enterprise to be in a holiday accommodation brochure is expensive, making it an unattractive option for many farmers. The cheapest way to market is to put up a sign on the road, near to the house, but this is not practical for more remote locations. One group of farmers created a network with farmers in Southern Sweden, printing and distributing brochures. This came about with the help of local consultants and from funds from 76 another supportive programme. The research suggests that without a more organised approach, rural tourism is limited in its success as a diversified enterprise. Joint initiatives are needed for marketing and the provision of activities and services for tourists, including the marketing of regional foods (Hjalager, 1996). Agrotourism is a convenient means to diversify in that a spouse already has some of the necessary skills, and so can feel capable without attending courses before starting the enterprise. This helps to reduce entry costs, as does the potential of using surplus rooms in a farmhouse. it appears that success can be aided by collective marketing, either jointly producing brochures or sharing websites. The example of co-operation with Swedish and Danish farmers demonstrates a means to capture a larger potential market while sharing advertising costs. The co-ordination of investment in accommodation itself and tourist attractions is a positive step towards encouraging customers to a region. On-farm processing In a survey of Germany, Belgium, France and UK, on-farm processing was not found to be frequent amongst diversified enterprises. It has been estimated that in the UK, 1.6% of all farms are engaged in food-processing. For Germany, the percentage of farms engaged in food processing was 1.9%. On–farm processing requires a considerable entrepreneurial ability and asset base. This is because of the required volume of raw material supply and investment in equipment required. Thus, it is not usually a small-scale operation for peasant farmers. The processing enterprises generally have a sole-trader or partnership legal form with company status being more common in UK. For all four countries, the processing enterprise made an important contribution to total household income. In France and UK, processing contributed to over 50% of total household income, whereas in the other countries, the enterprise was largely complementary to agriculture with 32% of income being generated from the enterprise in Germany and 28% in Belgium (Revell and François, 1997). One of the greatest bottlenecks to processing was the difficulty of obtaining markets. This was considered to be due to the initial production level being relatively low, and small quantities being difficult to sell beyond the close vicinity of the enterprise. All producers identified the main factors contributing to successful sales were word of mouth and ‘being a good salesman’. Business success depended on product quality, healthiness and uniqueness coupled with a distribution network. Employment issues With regard to employment in processing enterprises, Belgium created the least, with largely part-time work (0.6 FTE17s on average) with France and Germany providing between 1-1.5 FTEs. In the UK there was a large variation but on average a higher use of 6FTEs. There were some large enterprises within the UK sample, resulting in some skewness since between 40 and 50% of the businesses employed no additional, permanent staff, and between 30 and 40% employed only between 1 and 4 staff. There is an observable relationship between the size of the processing enterprise and the number of employees. Businesses which increase in size beyond a certain threshold require larger increments in turnover per additional staff member employed. This is probably due to higher labour productivity as a result of labour-capital substitution. The greatest 17 Full-time equivalent 77 effects on employment such as taking on new employees, use of spare family labour etc are observed at early business expansion for medium size companies or start-up (Revell and François, 1997). This suggests that supporting expansion and start-up could be the most efficient strategy for encouraging job creation in rural areas since for larger companies a greater investment would be required in order to create jobs. Research indicated that once processing commences, it increases in its contribution to total household income, resulting in a shift away from agricultural activity. This is said to also happen with other forms of diversification which tends to have an effect on agricultural production, making it more extensive, and, therefore, lowering its labour requirement (Revell and François, 1997). Farm accommodation appears to have little impact on job creation. In a UK survey of 200 farm-based accommodation businesses, it was recognised that generally, they rely on self-exploitation of family labour, with 78% of surveyed enterprises using no external labour resources. Only three farms employed full-time labour for accommodation, all of which had large licensed camping and caravanning sites while five business had full-time workers who divided their time between agricultural and accommodation enterprises. All other employees were casual or part-time. The reasons for the lack of employment of external labour in these enterprises may be attributed to; the businesses being started in the first place in order to utilise surplus resources including labour; some enterprises such as small camp sites have a low labour requirement; younger household members (schoolchildren) can provide labour during holidays which coincide with peak periods and; finally, in some cases profit would be eroded by paying wages (Evans and Ilbery, 1992). A Spanish survey of 125 farms confirmed these findings with only 2 full time employees in agrotourist enterprises, most employment in agrotourism being for family members, particularly wives and grandmothers (Francès and Méndez, 2001). A Danish survey or 67 agrotourist enterprises indicated that no full-time jobs had been created nor were likely to be created in agro tourist enterprises, with employment being restricted to part time jobs and some subcontracted work (such as for cleaning). Generally labour was provided by the spouse and older children (Hjalager, 1996). Conclusions The case studies bring to light the importance of marketing in determining the success of an enterprise. In particular it is important to research a market, and if necessary to adopt a strategy to overcome foreseen difficulties such as in the case of selling ostrich meat. The example of amplebosom.com shows how careful market research before starting an enterprise is a key to giving a business a good chance of success. She was particularly adept at marketing, having the ability to use a threat from complaints into a PR opportunity. Even with her bed and breakfast business, there area added extra which may attract consumers such as the ability to order groceries in advance to be delivered to the accommodation and the development of farm walks for guests. Marketing was identified as being important for food processing, this could be aided by concentrating on product quality, healthiness and a good distribution network. Potential diversifiers who wish to be successful should address the need to be a good salesman and develop a potential market. Cooperation with other farmers in a region can be a successful way in which to advertise a product or service without an extortionate cost as illustrated by the Scottish Pentland produce initiative and agrotourist enterprises in Denmark. Co-operation does not have to be restricted to the national level but can be beneficial at an international level such as the Danish/Swedish initiative. A concerted and combined effort can help to create a regional identity for these goods or to co-ordinate tourism such as by providing attractions as well as accommodation, as illustrated by the Danish example. Group action can be useful for maximising resource use such as in the case of the Scottish machinery ring. 78 The use of consulting or extension services can provide a lifeline for those considering diversifying, whether as an aid in establishing a market or to aid in application for funds. In the example of ostrich meat, a consultant aided in finding a way to retail the meat and helped farmers come together to market their services in Denmark. In Denmark, a lack of consultancy was blamed for some households providing more finance themselves than expected. However much marketing and consultancy services have been used, it is important to have some business sense and a strategy for the business. This includes knowing what the breakeven point is such as in the case of Sally Robinson, and monitoring the books, so that problems can be quickly identified and action taken if necessary. The case of Kathy and Jim, illustrates the importance of monitoring costs and profits in ensuring the survival of an enterprise. It also indicates the importance of frequent monitoring of the day to day running of the business, where it is managed by someone else, and the need to recruit a manager with similar ideals or one who has adequate skills. These ingredients for success identified through western European cases such as marketing, consulting services, client relationships, and monitoring of the financial side of the business are all potentially transferable to CEECs. Consultancy or extension services could be offered to those considering diversification to help them to identify a market and choose the product or service to be offered. They could also help to establish collective marketing strategies where suitable and advice in business planning, strategy development and book keeping. Such advice could be provided on an on-going basis This advice would not only aid in business start-up but would aid in business survival. EU policies and programmes relating to diversification Greece Some types of non-agricultural diversification have been promoted such as agrotourism and small food-processing units. This has occurred through programmes such as LEADER. However, most of this funding was used for infrastructure, especially the road networks rather than promoting diversification per se. It could be argued that the promotion of diversification has not achieved its targets (Psaltopoulos and Skuras, 2000). The Regional Development plan of 1978-1980 contained special programmes to increase pluriactivity. However, socio-economic constraints in mountain areas reduced the effects of investment schemes which in mountainous areas were taken up at a rate below national average (Ministry of Agriculture, 1999). Regional Operational Plans in mountainous areas tended to concentrate on improving remoteness by improving the road network while in an effort to reduce human capital constraints on the uptake of investment schemes. Integrated Mediterranean Programs (IMP) and Community Initiatives such as LEADER have been more successful at promoting entrepreneurship and have also aided in modernising the institutional framework, providing the required services and experience to the rural population (Psaltopoulos and Skuras, 2000). One of the difficulties experienced in mountainous areas of Greece is that the local population tend to have low incomes and therefore, cannot really afford to take the risks associated with entrepreneurial activity. This problem has been reduced to some extent by the provision of significant rates of assistance for investments and an improved infrastructure. Leader and IMPs have been important in providing institutions which provide insights to management, provision of ‘seed’ money, finding potential entrepreneurs, providing investment and market information, assessing prospects of success and developing human capital. Such incubator organisations have been considered to be successful in Greek mountainous areas (Psaltopoulos and Skuras, 2000). Improvements to infrastructure (both communication and transportation networks) have reduced the constraints of accessibility to suppliers and customers. On the other hand, it has resulted 79 in the local economy being ‘opened’, increasing inputs to the areas and decreasing the output of several local sectors (Psaltopoulos and Skuras, 2000). Trends in decentralisation have led to active participation by local government in developing Greek mountain areas which have set-up development companies, information-dissemination agencies and entrepreneurial assistance schemes. The engagement of local government has been particularly beneficial in the design of appropriate local-development strategies and the mobilisation of local development actors(Community support framework). Policies which have been implemented to promote entrepreneurship have included integrating regulatory, fiscal and other measures (such as setting up one-stop shops) in order to lower the administrative burden of business start-up. The promotion of innovation in SMEs has helped to achieve increased entrepreneurship and the promotion of flexibility in the labour market has increased employment opportunities for some (Community support framework). Portugal There are several projects being implemented which will aid diversification. These include a project promoting tourism in rural areas. This is to be achieved through aiding applications to the authority managing the tourism project. In addition education sessions and publications are to be provided and a database is to be created to aid in monitoring of progress. An internet page is also to be developed (Direcção Geral de Desenvolvimento Rural, 2000). A second project aims to provide incentives for increasing the use of social capital contributing to the multifunctionality of agriculture and diversification of activities in rural areas. Actions to achieve this include the creation of promotional entities, internal circulation of proceedings, collaboration in the development of a database characterising 150 projects. An action plan for 2003 is to be developed, and projects are to be analysed. Development activity is to be evaluated as are executive and financial materials appertaining to action plans (Direcção Geral de Desenvolvimento Rural, 2000). Another project is concerned with the identification of craftsmen and craftsmanship and in improving awareness of them and their social value. Its aim is to contribute towards an adequate definition and adjustment of policies providing incentives to the sector and to reinforce social consciousness of the importance of arts as cultural identities and dynamic economic instruments at local level. It also sets out to generate accurate statistics for the sector. Actions to achieve this are the creation of a database for the sector and a webpage. Meetings are to be held with the national commission, internal publication of proceedings is to occur and development activities are to be evaluated (Direcção Geral de Desenvolvimento Rural, 2000). Promotion of the use of linen and wool which can contribute to the revitalisation of small rural communities whose economic survival nestles with this type of artisanal activity which complements agriculture. Transmission of appropriate skills between women is to be encouraged. Such artisanship has potential to aid in establishing tourism in rural areas. Actions to achieve these aims are to prepare a brochure, and a webpage. This is planned to be funded by LEADER (Direcção Geral de Desenvolvimento Rural, 2000). Using such financial incentives as LEADER, INTERREG etc, various projects have been initiated within the area of rural museums. This should aid in attracting visitors to rural areas, boosting the local economy. A final project is concerned with the promotion of quality products using instruments such as protected denomination of origin, protected geographic origin, guaranteed traditional speciality. The support of organic agriculture, and the implementation of organic production regulations at 80 national level are to aid in the process. In addition to these measures, there is to be support for the development of a control and certification system for products obtained from protected areas. There is also to be development of other ways of valuing Portuguese products and the encouragement of private control and certification organisations. The objectives of the project are to increase the volume of traditional products on offer, whether by diversifying the range of products or by increasing the number of operators. The number of products from organic production and extensive agriculture are to be increased as are the number of producers in protected areas (Direcção Geral de Desenvolvimento Rural, 2000). Actions to initiate this include proposals for means of recognising national and community traditional products, accompanying the development of registered products with a valuation of the economic impact of their production and commercialisation. Specification documents are to be modified. Within the project, other systems of increasing the value of traditional alternative products are to be developed and those which are in existence are to be complemented. Support is to be given to the development of organic agriculture, integrated protection and other modes of production. Inspection and audit of private organisations of control and certification is to be carried out. Promotion and increasing the value of national traditional products is to be aided through encouraging participation in demonstrations and exhibitions, publications of inventories and catalogues. The creation and maintenance of a database is to be carried out in order to monitor progress. Gastronomy and national culture are to be nurtured in order to encourage the valuing of traditional products. Publication of names of producers of products with protected names and providing other items of interest such as regulations under which production is conducted aid those seeking products to locate them and provide a better appreciation of the quality of the products. Sales are to be further enhanced by promoting e-commerce (Direcção Geral de Desenvolvimento Rural, 2000). An evaluation of the implementation of policy measures within the 1994-1999 frameworks for community support (FCS) indicated that there is an inadequate conceptual framework for measures and actions due to the lack of studies such as sectorial, regional and socio-eceonomic to identify the requirements of certain regions, sectors or target groups. This meant that the programs were not appropriate for meeting specific needs. Insufficient co-ordination resulted in inadequate information, complex bureaucratic procedures and some programmes coinciding with each other. (Roca, 2000) The 2000-2006 FCS learnt from previous experience and considered it to be vital to decentralise competencies and resources to county level and to increase the efficiency of the decentralised government services at regional level and to harmonise sector –related and spatial development programs In 1994-1999 LEADER II financed various actions in Portugal such as diversification of economic activities, including rural tourism, micro and small enterprises, craftsmanship, valorisation and commercialisation of agricultural products. One example of implementation of this programs was in the Lima valley where the local action group (ADRIL) focused on programs related to tourism and related activities, this was both due to the rural tourism potential of the area but also because ADRIL was founded by an a non-profit private association and marketing agency of owners of old manor houses in the region (Roca, 2000). This could indicate that local action groups may contain biases where founders have vested interests. In the Lima valley virtually no funding was given to producers of local agricultural products. There has been little evidence that rural tourism is an additional source of income for farmers, rather, most of those engaged in this activity are active or retired professionals, entrepreneurs and highly qualified staff. It has been considered that there has been insufficient action to improve service provision such as health care, 81 education and culture which are required in the context of increasing farmer diversification (Roca, 2000). The program for the creation and modernisation of SMEs and microenterprises had 3 main spheres of action namely: craftsmanship, restoring and valorisation of traditional arts and crafts including agricultural products, commerce and distribution of goods and services, especially craft products, improvement to social, environmental, cultural and recreational living conditions. The main beneficiaries were individual entrepreneurs. In the Lima valley there were only a small number of applicants for these funds, largely because that the local target groups of rural artisans and non-agricultural entrepreneurs represented minor groups of development stakeholders, bureaucracy, low education levels of the potential beneficiaries, lack of information about the programme and lack of assistance in submitting applications. The LEADER II program was also financing rural craftsmanship, thereby creating an overlap and competition between programmes. Diversified farm households benefited to some extent from another programme entitled system of regional incentives (SRI) which created and modernised SMEs, although the majority of recipients of these funds were urban, some farm household members obtained employment in these enterprises, particularly younger members (Roca, 2000). The Transfrontier Programme between Portugal and Spain when implemented in Portugal included a measure for agriculture and rural development. Within this, diversification was promoted as was valorisation and commercialisation of agriculture, forest and hunting products, marketing and promotion of agricultural products (Roca, 2000) Local development initiatives have proved fruitful in reviving local economies in rural areas in Portugal such as The South-West Alentejo Local Development Agency (ESDIME) based in Alentejo which has been viewed as being the least developed rural region in the European Union. It suffers from low agricultural productivity, very large landholdings, old population, an underqualified workforce and a lack of entrepreneurial initiatives. ESDIME has focused on increasing human capital and attracting professionals and entrepreneurs to settle and invest in the region. Initially it worked almost exclusively as an advisory body, providing advice to entrepreneurs wishing to start micro-enterprises in the area. A little later it expanded to increase the area which it covered and focused on aiding small-scale entrepreneurs and unemployed women. In addition it organised vocational training activities and encouraged entrepreneurship amongst the younger populous. It was funded by EU financing received for Objective 1 regions but now it supports itself through income generated by its consultancy and vocational training services. Entrepreneurship amongst the young has been encouraged through discussions with experienced professionals, visits to businesses, short-term work opportunities in local firms and educational games. Along with a local government authority, ESDIME, persuaded an electronics firm to build a new factory in Alijustrel after mining activities ceased in the town. ESDIME was responsible for training the new local employees who had previously been unemployed. With regard to promoting entrepreneurship, ESDIME offers consultancy services such as pre-feasibility and feasibility studies, legal advice and assistance in making grant proposals. Between 1989 and 1997 it has aided the establishment of almost 200 new micro and small enterprises. Within its responsibility of managing the LEADER program in the region, its services to entrepreneurship also encompass improvements to marketing strategies by focusing on local identity, goods and services and forging links with the external market (Roca, 1998). ESDIME has developed a training programme for agriculturists wishing to diversify their activities. The training courses cover such subjects as agrotourism, the production of traditional goats’ cheese (Roca, 1998). Ireland 82 The main form of diversification (over 50%) is in the form of rural tourism. A survey of tourists undertaken in county Galway indicated that their main activities were walking, viewing the scenery, landscape and historical sites. The integrated rural development database indicated that there were approximately 200 farmers with milking goats, of which only 30 produced cheese and yoghurt. Diversification has been encouraged both indirectly by CAP reform in the 1980s which introduced quotas, which led farmers to examine the potential to utilise land, buildings and other resources for alternative enterprises (Connolly, 1999). The operational program for rural development (OPRD) between 1989 and 1993 and 1994 to 1999 masterminded by the department of agriculture, food and forestry and partly funded by the EU provided grant aid for investments in alternative enterprises such as rural tourism and horticultural enterprises. Teagasc aided in the promoting these enterprises and providing training for new entrants(Connolly, 1999). Several groups market B&B for their members, thereby reducing the costs that would be faced if marketing was on an individual basis. Such groups include Town and Country Homes, Irish Farmhouse Association, Irish Country Holidays. They facilitate co-ordinated development and reduce the cost to the individual of promotion and marketing. Community tourism facilitates the pooling of resources which can result in a greater range of potential activities for guests in addition to accommodation. At present the rural tourism sector necessitates a co-ordinated strategy rather than the fragmented small-scale initiatives currently existing. Greater co-operation could result in a distinct Irish rural tourism package which could provide a greater potential for positioning in the marketplace and for developing a strategic marketing approach (Commins, 2001). LEADER funds were used to support the collective body of Irish Country Holidays which was to develop community rural tourism through building up a partnership approach and to market new products and increase the number of visitors. The main vehicle for this was a central marketing and reservation system which was the main recipient of LEADER funds. However, when progress was monitored at the end of 1999, it appeared that the marketing project had had little impact. This failure to meet targets was put down to a number of factors such as a lack of continuity in staff in the organisation, a lack of co-ordination of how agencies aided the organisation and a lack of distinction between the board and staff. The organisation also appeared to be too dependent on LEADER funding for it to be viable and for its development. Irish Farmhouse Holidays Limited (IFH) proposed to LEADER the provision of rural development through the provision of tourist accommodation. The aim was to develop, upgrade and monitor rural accommodation, regenerating rural areas in the process. The increased income of the accommodation providers would go back into the rural community as well as the use of support services such as food putting money into the local economy. Most of the grant assistance obtained through LEADER was used for designing, printing and distributing brochures. In the last two years a new reservations package was installed along with new hardware. A website was also set up and a video made This project met its targets with considerable upgrading and expansion in both accommodation and marketing. Funding from LEADER enabled marketing to extend across Europe and the USA. IFH joined with Town and Country Homes under the BORD Failte Joint Marketing Initiative in promoting accommodation. Both organisations were aided by Bord Failte in attending trade promotions. Evaluation of LEADER II indicates that support to rural tourism should be better co-ordinated with regional and national tourism policy and priorities. One recommendation was that “Go-it-alone” marketing supports should be avoided in the future (Brendan Kearney and Associates). The department of agriculture, food and rural development has a scheme for the development of the potato sector. It provides funding for capital investment in new or improved storage and marketing facilities such as grading, packing, washing and weighing equipment for commercial potato growers. In order to receive grants, investment proposals need to demonstrate viability and adequacy while applicants require appropriate skills, competence and compliance with 83 minimum environmental and plant health standards. Types of investment have been prioritised in the following order: temperature controlled storage and associated equipment, brushing equipment, grading, packing and weighing equipment, washing equipment and ambient storage and associated equipment. The grant rate is 35% with grant ceilings in place having a minimum of €10,000 and a maximum for purposes of grant calculation of €150,000 (DAFF,2001). There is also a measure for rural development containing 3 sub measures the first of which is for area based rural development initiatives. Funding is for area-based groups to implement approved business plans covering a range of elements including agri-tourism, local crafts and services, small scale food processing. The grant rates vary according to the type of project while eligibility criteria are based upon the rules for LEADER II. The measure is co-funded by EAGGF fund. The Western Investment Fund provides loans and take equity in a small number of investments in new and growth-orientated small and medium sized enterprises in the Western Region. The Western Development Commission determines the number of projects to gain funding. Applicant enterprises need to demonstrate future profitability and viability combined with an ability to pay dividends on shares, interest on loans and to make repayments on loans. The Rural Development Fund provides finance for research (DAFF, 1999). The government aims to provide a comprehensive pro-active information service in future’. This is to be implemented by the publication every two years of a comprehensive directory of State services available to rural communities. A website is to be established in order to provide comprehensive information and continual updating of developments. County Development Boards are to provide access to and information on services to rural communities. These Boards are also to identify the local information requirements and the most appropriate means by which they can be delivered, including ‘one-stop-shops’ for public service information (DAFF, 1999). Employment issues are to be addressed by several means. These include the identification and promotion of diversified activities while providing training, marketing, processing and distribution support. Targeted training for smallholders to take up off-farm employment is to be implemented. It has been considered that in rural areas small and medium scale developments will continue to be the main source of jobs creation. Initiatives to promote such developments will continue as part of Government policy. Attention is being paid to encourage services industries in rural areas due to the fact that they are considered to be the sector with the fastest employment growth. The County Enterprise Boards, local action groups approved under LEADER, Area Partnerships and Community Groups have demonstrated that local focus can generate ancillary activities, thereby increasing local value added. The County Enterprise Boards can make contributions at local level to increase job creation since it is responsible for micro-enterprise support. This helps to integrate such developments into the larger planning process at regional and national levels (DAFF, 1999). Human resources have been identified as being drivers for diversification since the availability of a well-educated workforce attracts new income and job creating opportunities to rural areas. Information technology skills have been gaining increasing importance. With these issues in mind, the government is committed to providing a ‘comprehensive and all embracing education system... This will include the provision of distance education and outreach facilities with an emphasis on technological supports and resources (DAFF, 1999). Spain The LEADER (Liaison Entre Actions de Développement de l’Économie Rurale) II program contributes to maintaining rural populations in sustainable and comparable socio-economic 84 conditions, promoting and supporting innovations in rural activity which generate incomes and employment while respecting the environment and natural resources. The initiative works at county level in rural areas with the worst problems of socio-economic development, particularly low incomes, depopulation, high proportions of elderly in the population. It works through interrelated actions which are based upon the specific requirements of that region. The key of the programs has been the participation of rural populations through local action groups which provides autonomy and flexibility in implementing the program so that it can be tailored specifically to each rural area(http://www.redr.es).. The national programme PRODER (Programa Operativa de Desarollo y Diversificacíon Económica de Zonas Rurales) in Objective 1 regions has objectives which mostly coincide with those of LEADER II. These are to increase development in rural areas through economic diversification which will aid in raising incomes, social wellbeing of inhabitants and ensuring conservation of natural resources. In order to achieve these objectives PRODER supports and subsidises rural development such as through encouraging tourism, supporting small enterprises and craftsmanship and service activities and valorising of agricultural and forestry production. All these supports could aid in promoting agricultural diversification (http://www.redr.es). Galicia has an additional programme called AGADER (Axencia Galega de desenvolvemento Rural(Galician agency of rural development). It is the only such autonomous region in Spain to have such a programme funded by its own council. The programme enables the whole territory of Galicia to be covered by rural development programmes. It aims to encourage and co-ordinate rural development and to improve living conditions within the territory. This includes the monitoring of and following of LEADER and PRODER programmes, promoting cooperation between private and public agents in development (http://agader.xunta.es/). La unidad Española del observatorio europeo Leader has an objective of exchanging information and experiences between groups involved in rural development. To achieve this it has developed a network which includes in the first place sending information and news of interest by e-mail to groups of and associated networks and the creation of a webpage with relevnat informationm such as data relating to LEADER and PRODER. It also produces a newsletter, organisies teh formation of groups, has repeated contact with groups through visits and activities of Antenas Regionales del Observatorio(www.redr.es). The main objectives of Red Española de Desarollo Rural (REDR)(Spanish rural development network) are to defend a model of Rural Development which is integral and sustainable using a vision of what development is in rural areas. It is not strictly limited to instruments such as leader and Proder, rather with a broader viewpoint which incorporates all the elements that contribute to development. It aims to improve awareness of REDR by putting forward its proposals at all decision fora which are directly applicable to its model of rural development. The work plan for REDR in 2001 was to transform REDR into a true network of networks, create conditions to exercise the paper of representation of associated groups at different levels, improve the actual services provided, augment its resources, use the image of REDR in different means of communication (www.redr.es). 85 5. INTEGRATED STRATEGY a) Optimal Policy Mix Policy proposals for Hungary Rural development priorities in rural sub-regions Our proposals are based on the administrative sub-regions which at the time of creation took into account each regions characteristics. These characteristics combined to make up the current rural developmental provisions. Three main types of sub-regions can be classified: developed, medium, and undeveloped. 1. The developed group is made up of only ten rural sub-regions. With the exception of one, they are all non-agricultural. Their main characteristic is that they are found in the developed regions, usually Transdanubia. Another defining characteristic is the tourism in the region, since thermal baths, lake Balaton and the surrounding countryside attract tourists. The ratio of agricultural employment is below the national average. The unemployment rate is relatively low as the infrastructure is more advanced than the rural average. Based on these facts we set up our priorities: The development of the agriculture and processing of agricultural goods by taking advantage of the natural qualities of the land should be in the focus of the development projects. Encompassed within these parameters are the development of traditional wineries, and the maintenance of the natural surroundings. The regions’ characteristics are also favourable for rural tourism (the infrastructure is quite advanced, as well as having a long established traditional hospitality.) Preserving the traditional qualities of village life is also a top priority. 2. Approximately one third of the medium group is made up of agricultural subregions. The unemployment rate is around the national average, however the main problem is with the long-term unemployment rate. The number of state welfare recipients is also not significant. In this category the difference between agricultural and non-agricultural sub-regions is not only based on the size of the agricultural employment but also on the population density and service infrastructure. One of the main agricultural priorities in the medium group is the subsidised development of the food industry which is aimed to increase productivity. The agricultural diversification and investments which increase non-agricultural income, and rural infrastructural development should be a priority. 3. The undeveloped group is the largest among the three groups. Besides the lacking infrastructure and service industry the unemployment rate is high (twice the national average). 86 The non-agrarian, undeveloped group's interesting characteristic is that its demographic statistics are favourable. The decrease in population is the lowest, despite the insignificant immigration. High unemployment rate, ageing population and unskilled labour is also a characteristic. The problems in this group are social rather than territorial (rural). Therefore education, training and creation of jobs need to be a top priority. This is supported by the fact that in these regions the productivity is significantly below, besides the national, the rural average. The per capita (personal) income is also low. The agrarian, undeveloped region's demographics are less favourable. Therefore a top priority needs to be the stabilisation of the population and the stabilisation of the workforce. In the agricultural sector the development of labour-intensive production and job creation should be favoured. In addition to agricultural development, employment and income-generation outside the agricultural sector should be encouraged. Finally, let us introduce a further suggestion concerning the development of the large (NUTS 2) regions. Rural development programs should be included in the large regions' development plans. The ratio of sub-regions within the NUTS 2 regions also needs to be taken into account. Our classifications also help in figuring out the above stated problems. Certain territorial divisions can be seen on the map. Rural development priorities in NUTS 2 regions Our development priorities concerning the large (NUTS 2) regions are derived from the ratio of sub-regions and their priorities. According to this method, the NUTS 2 regions’ priorities are based on the smaller subdivisions, i.e. we have used a bottom-up approach. Hungary can be divided into 7, NUTS 2 big regions. These are the following: West-Transdanubia: Győr-Moson-Sopron, Vas and Zala County Central Transdanubia: Fejér, Komárom-Esztergom and Veszprém County South-Transdanubia: Baranya, Somogy and Tolna County Northern Hungary: Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Nógrád County Northern Plain: Hajdú-Bihar, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok and Szabolcs-Szatmár Bereg County Southern Plain: Bács-Kiskun, Békés and Csongrád County Central Hungary: Budapest and Pest County On the map, the NUTS 2 regions’ borders are indicated with red, the county borders are indicated with black lines. The seven NUTS 2 regions can be divided into four groups based on the prevalence of different types of sub-regions. 1. The West-Transdanubian region is relatively developed, but not highly urbanized. Therefore, development priorities designed for developed rural regions should be applied. The share of agriculture in the region’s economy is below average, however agricultural activities are fairly productive and profitable. The rural sub-regions’ infrastructure is developed; the unemployment rate is low. Among other characteristics, the cultural traditions and natural surroundings are also favorable. These conditions are favorable for rural tourism. As a result of its geographical position (its closeness to Austria and Western 87 Europe, good infrastructure between these regions), this area is easily accessible for foreign tourists. In respect of market as well as labor resources, this region is suitable for environment-friendly agriculture. Certain areas are suitable to produce special goods (wine), and for medicinal tourism. Beside these, this area (especially the Kisalföld) is favorable for marketable agricultural production. 2. Central Hungary and Central Transdanubia are highly urbanized regions. These are Hungary’s most densely populated regions. The share of agricultural employment is not significant. The number of firms and companies is above the national average. The unemployment rate is below average. Contrary to other regions, efficiency should be in the focus of agricultural development. Resulting from the high number of urban population, rural areas have important recreational purposes. Popular holiday spots (Balaton, Dunakanyar etc.) and special arable land (wine-growing areas) can be found in this region, where the preservation of the landscape and the reduction of pollution is a top priority. Urban regions and the densely populated areas around the Lake Balaton create a good market for bio-goods and environment friendly production. 3. Northern Hungary also has depressed industrial areas and agricultural regions with insufficient productivity. The rural sub-regions are undeveloped, where the unemployment rate is high. This last characteristic is also true for the urban areas. Development of labour intensive production, creation of jobs and the agricultural diversification should have priority in rural development programs. Relatively large part of this region is woodland (forested above the national average), however the low quality agricultural land should be further afforested. Developments based on the special, local conditions (wineries in Tokaj or Eger) are also possibilities. Improvements in the infrastructure and investments aimed to renew the villages would increase rural tourism. 4. Northern and Southern Plain, and the South Transdanubian regions are the most rural regions in Hungary. At the same time, the two Plain regions’ economy is dominated by their agriculture. Therefore, improvements in the agricultural production would play an important role in the development of these regions. Especially advisable to improve the labor intensive agricultural sectors, support the family owned businesses, and subsidize investments aimed to develop the production and trade of agricultural products. Agricultural and rural infrastructures also need to be expanded. In certain areas (Hortobágy, Tisza-tó), increase in tourism, preservation of rural cultural heritage, and maintenance of the natural surroundings should be realized. The South Transdanubian region is somewhat different in its settlement patterns from the Plain regions. Problems of the infrastructure, coming from the settlement pattern (large number of small villages) should be solved. At the same time, the reduction of the unemployment rate has to be decreased. The wine-growing areas and holiday spots provide good conditions for developments in the rural tourism. Special rural development measures and sources The European Commission made it possible for new members that after the enlargement they can put special rural development programs into practice. Instead of the usual 50 or 70%, the EU finances 80% of the costs. Therefore, rural development priorities should include the following: 88 Early retirement for farmers Support for less favoured areas or areas with environmental restrictions Agri-environment programmes Afforestation of agricultural land Specific measures for semi-subsistence farms Setting up of producer groups Technical assistance The question is whether or not all rural development programs in Hungary should include these measures, and whether or not all these measures should be available for all of the regions. Only the early retirement should be omitted from the national rural development plans. Since the Guarantee Section of the EAGGF finances these measures, therefore they should be introduced as horizontal measures. At the distribution of the subsidies, certain characteristics of the regions should be taken into account. For example, the subsidies -available to so-called semisubsistence farms- should be concentrated to regions with large number of small family owned businesses and high unemployment rate. The support of less favourable areas is only possible under defined conditions. Another question concerning rural development is the so-called modulation. Modulation means that subsidies are not increased proportionally, but digressively, when above a certain size and amount the subsidies cannot be increased. It is well known that the Agenda 2000 suggested the obligatory application of this method. However, the final EU regulations made it optional for member states, in such a way that they can use the remaining amount for rural development and agricultural measures. Today, modulation is used in the United Kingdom and in France. In our opinion, the use of modulation should be considered in Hungary’s case, because the Hungarian agricultural structure is rather dualist. It is true that the number of small farms is high, but it is also true that 1/3 of the total agricultural land is cultivated by farms larger than 1000 ha. With a structure like this, modulation is a favourable option and the remaining sources can be used for rural development projects. In addition, modulation prevents the further expansion of huge farms, which is favourable in the respect of rural development, because large farms drive the smaller farms out of business and increase unemployment (bankrupt farmers, large farms use relatively fewer workers). Large farms increase monocultural production, which leads to a decrease in biodiversity. However, these are not desirable processes and results. Choice of measures In the following part we make some considerations on some eligible measures. Prioritised support of purchasing, processing and service co-operatives The establishment of purchasing, processing and service co-operatives is a basic need in Hungarian agriculture. This is particularly true for vine growing enterprises, where the fragmented land structure and the lack of assets are a basic hindrance to any type of development. 89 In its annual support programmes of MARD some support has already been granted for the establishment of these “new type” co-operatives. Moreover these co-operatives were offered preferential support rates for machinery purchase. Nevertheless these incentives proved insufficient, because hardly any new co-operatives have been set up since. The basic reason for this is that the small individual farmers lack the necessary funds for the investments. In our view these new type of co-operatives have to be supported in their starting phase to a far greater extent then any other organisational form of farming. It is also important to overcome the generally bad attitude of Hungarian farmers towards any collective arrangement. Proposed measures: For start up co-operatives preferential loans have to be made available. The rate of preference has to exceed that of the conventional agricultural interest subsidy (which is normally half of the prime rate). Beside preferential interest rates state guarantee for certain long-term loans is also a necessity. One typical problem of small scale farmers is that they can not provide the required collateral for the banks, with which to secure the loan. Investment projects into buildings or agricultural equipment, machinery should be supported ex ante as opposed to the current practice of ex post refunding. This is necessary because most growers lack the required funds for a viable investment project, so they can not make use of the investment support schemes. A comprehensive information campaign has to be launched with the aim of convincing farmers about the advantages of the co-operative. As they are primarily agricultural, all the above measures could be launched on the national level as part of the annual agricultural support scheme. The administration and monitoring of the running project should be delegated to the county offices of MARD, which has the appropriate experience and expertise for that. The financial aspects of the scheme could managed by the state treasury as usual. Viticulture With 91 thousand hectares of vineyards, viticulture is a significant sector in Hungarian agriculture. In addition to the value of agricultural produce viticulture is also an important element of the country-image and as such a major tourist attraction. In general, natural endowments are rather favourable for wine production in Hungary. In the most appreciated wine regions (Tokaj, Villány, Badacsony, Eger, Szekszárd etc.) wine production is more and more oriented towards unique, internationally competitive wine production, which generates the most local added value. These 10-12 eminent historical wine regions consist of normally 15-25 villages, where wine production is the most important (or single) source of income and employment. Thus viticulture is a major or supplementary income source for at least 50.000 families, all of them located in rural regions. The Badacsony wine region in the Tapolca sub-region is an eminent case in point. One of the most important problems of the traditional viticulture in Hungary is wine faking, which means illegal and highly artificial “wine” production, from water, sugar, wine lees and other additives. This business flourishes in the eastern-central part of Hungary with a 200 –300 million litre estimated annual output! Due to the presence of this huge faked wine volume on the Hungarian market traditionally produced wine is impossible to sell at reasonable prices. This hits the lower 90 quality wines in particular. It was the common view of the stakeholders, that Hungarian viticulture can not be reconstructed unless wine faking is abolished completely. Since the mid-nineties several steps have been taken by the government in order to fight wine faking (specialised wine commando) without much result. Recently the inclusion of sugar into the excise product category was raised as a means to fight wine faking. If the authorities do not demonstrate enough deterrence wine faking can not be overcome. With the recent amendment of the excise regulation there seems to be a good basis for the government to launch a comprehensive action. A rather generous scheme has been operating in Hungary supporting the plantations of new vine yards. Besides voluntary farmers’ co-operatives major processing, bottling companies can also play an active role in the integration of vine growers. This is particularly true for those wine regions, where the land structure is extremely fragmented, with the majority of plots being less than 1 ha. However it is important that these companies not only buy the vine but also offer pre-financing, consulting in plant protection and machinery. Proposed measures Land consolidation and plantation reconstruction have to be supported in parallel. Support should be granted to the establishment of contiguous vine plantations between 2-15 hectares. The state has to bear the costs of land registration. The projects should be examined by the sub-region’s administration, which would have to decide about the viability of the project. Wine faking should be investigated and sanctioned more stringently than before. The competent authority (Customs and Excise Agency) should be provided with the necessary staff and mandate to act against this activity. Wine processing and bottling companies should get a quality vine subsidy from the state if they pay the stipulated minimum price for the vine in their region. The qualitative conditions (e.g. sugar content) for the supported vine have to be stipulated by the county’s administration (farmer’s notary) and the wine municipality (hegyközség). Supervision and monitoring can be performed by the county’s administration, whereas financing by the state treasury. Land, dwelling property rights, depopulation The acquisition of agricultural land and dwellings by foreigners is a widespread phenomenon in the Western part of Hungary. Since this land acquisition is mostly illegal its extent is rather difficult to estimate. Recent publications put it at 20-30% of all agricultural land in the counties located along the Austrian border (Zala, Vas, Győr-Moson-Sopron), whereas in the other Transdanubian counties (Somogy, Tolna, Veszprém, Fejér, Komárom) this is somewhat lower. This has been a high profile issue in Hungarian politics for several years and it is also subject to negotiations in the context of EU accession. Besides foreign acquisition, a great deal of agricultural land was obtained by non-local Hungarian investors, mainly for speculative purposes. Land abandonment is also frequent. From a rural development perspective it is quite clear, that large-scale acquisition of agricultural land by non-local entrepreneurs is detrimental to the local community regardless of whether the owner is foreigner or an urban resident. 91 The prospect of emerging large (>500 ha) specialised commercial farms in the long term is quite threatening, because this would exclude agriculture as a source of income and employment for the local population. So far the successive governments did little to create viable family farms, which would be the single – and EU conform – vehicle to provide adequate income and employment for those engaged in agriculture. The recent legislation of the Hungarian government is very much in favour of the newly established family farms assisting them in land acquisition, land consolidation access to credit etc. Beside land acquisition, the buying up of houses is a serious problem too. Due to the extreme difference between Hungarian and West European real estate prices (e.g. Hungarian prices are 10-20% of the Austrian) the buying up of dwellings has started a few years ago. Most affected are again the counties along the Austrian border and the minor Transdanubian villages with beautiful rural landscape. The Tapolca sub-region is one of the most liked regions, where the number of houses held by foreign owners reaches 30-50 % in some villages. This process is a vicious circle, since this foreign demand increases the price level, making it unaffordable for those, who would like to migrate there as permanent residents. Since the bulk of these new owners use their houses only as a weekend house, depopulation is quite significant. Proposed measure: Acquisition of agricultural land has to be made conditional on permanent residence and agricultural qualification. The county’s agricultural offices together with the county’s land registration office would be entitled to check whether an acquisition complies with the above requirement. Land abandonment has to be penalised by registering mortgage on the abandoned land plot. In the villages that belong to a national park (Balaton Uplands National Park, ŐrségVend Vidék National Park, Fertő Hanság-National Park) the national park should take measures to regulate real-estate acquisition. The measures to be taken include: Acquisition of architectural heritage houses should be restricted to permanent residents. The owners of these houses should get annual compensation for maintaining their house in the original state. If the national park prescribes architectural requirements to the construction of new houses a sufficient compensation should be paid to those, who comply with the requirements. Municipalities should designate new parcels for dwelling construction in order to provide opportunity to erect new houses for the local people. The state should contribute to the administrative procedure required to update the settlements’ development plan. This measure could be supported form the counties’ regional development fund being conditional on the approval of the sub-region’s architectural office Local taxation should enable municipalities to differentiate between permanent and nonpermanent residents to a greater extent than now. To this end the Act on municipalities should be amended. Administrative reform The currently existing two parallel micro-regional networks (statistical sub-regions, voluntary micro regions) have to be unified to create an all-inclusive, non-overlapping system. 92 The administration of these sub-regions have to be strengthened, otherwise they will not be able to handle the policies to be assigned to them in the future. Beside the rural development manager and the sub-region’s chairman also farmers notaries, the building authorities, secondary education and the social office should be organised on the subregional level. Sub-regions should be represented in the counties’ bodies (county development council) with more delegates than now. The delegates should not only be majors of settlements, but also representatives of chambers, civil organisations. Agro-tourism, organic farming In Hungary, the expectations concerning organic food production and agro-, village-tourism are excessive. Almost every rural sub-region having no potential for large-scale arable production selected these two activities as a solution for their employment and income problems. By contrast the demand for these activities is quite limited today, and we do not expect a major jump in the future. Organic food demand account for only 1-2% of the total food demand, whereas rural tourism generates only a fraction of the total tourist revenue of the country. Realistic chance for the development of rural tourism is only given in such places, where the landscape is unique, other attraction is also nearby (thermal bath, lake Balaton), closed to the Western borders. Proposed measure: Rural tourism should be supported only in those sub-regions, where the development plan of the sub-region includes rural tourism. The official of the sub-region has to approve the project bid. Support should be provided for the reconstruction of existing buildings. On field training programmes has to be supported too. b) Institutional setting The present institutional framework of rural and regional development – division of responsibilities The Parliament Naturally the parliament is the highest ruling body in rural- and regional development matters. The parliament has a basic regulatory and allocation jurisdiction, most importantly the acceptance of the National Regional Development Concept and the determination of support principles, resources and eligible regions. In an indirect way the municipal support scheme also has an impact on rural- and regional development. (e.g. No.30/1997 resolution of the parliament provides for the principles of regional development aids and the classification criteria of beneficiary regions) In principle the National Regional Development Concept gives the government the room to manoeuvre, since it lays down the principles for programming, allocation, the designation of entrepreneurial sectors and outstanding regions. Central government 93 It is obvious that the government holds the most important means in the central governance of regional policy. The government decides about the decentralisation of financial resources, their harmonisation, the development plans of outstanding regions and passes the most important decrees of implementation. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has an overall responsibility for agriculture, food industry and rural development. It is also responsible for EU integration and the co-operation between other ministries concerning these matters. However the competence of the minister is rather loosely defined in the above respects, which demonstrates that the “sectoral” treatment of rural development is quite vaguely defined within the government both functionally and institutionally. Within the ministry there are a number of different units dealing with these matters. There are also some overlapping responsibilities which contribute to the tensions between these units. The Unit for Rural Development Programmes (URDP) was set up in 1999. This unit was formally commissioned to organise the writing of the SAPARD Programme, and they are also involved in a range of other activities, as well as in the emergence of the system of voluntary microregions. Together with this unit a background research institution was created, within the Hungarian Institute for Regional Development and Urbanism. This provides the essential expertise for planning and analysis in rural development and also takes part in the practical implementation of the programmes. URDP is the sole unit in the governmental administration, which treats rural development in an integrated way, aiming at decentralisation, the use of local resources and the development of local partnerships. In this spirit they tried to incorporate as much rural development objective and resources into National SAPARD Plan as possible, and tried to establish or reinforce these ideas in practice, through the system of micro-regions. Besides the preparation of the SAPARD plan, this unit is in charge of the Rural Development Fund (RUDF). There are several different units for agriculture, food processing and marketing. The Unit of Economy was the most involved in rural development matters, since it was commissioned to co-ordinate the writing of the agricultural section of the SAPARD Programme. The Unit for Agri-environment, the Unit for EU Integration, and the SAPARD Secretary also have some responsibility, especially concerning the SAPARD Programme. Furthermore, within the ministry there are four more units dealing with rural development matters. The first is the Hungarian Regional Development Centre (HRDC), which is the secretariat for the National Regional Development Council (see below). The three others are the Phare Offices for Agriculture; for Regional Development; and for the Cross Border Co-operation (CBC) programmes. These offices were set up for the management of different Phare programmes, however, since they have acquired a lot of expertise in the field of EU administration over the years, they make a significant contribution to the work on drawing up different type of plans and other documents, required by the EU administration. The traditional sections of MARD traditionally have a well-developed system of county level offices, covering the entire country. These offices are manned by numerous permanent staff and experts and carry out the implementation of agricultural policies. The rural/regional division does not have such a system. However, in connection with the SAPARD Programme, as an EU requirement, seven regional offices were recently set up to implement the pre-accession programmes. These offices, staffed by employees of MARD, work alongside the regional development agencies, already set up before. 94 The Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) is in charge of the overall strategy of environmental policy and legislation. The MEP, co-operating with other ministries is responsible for environmental issues and executes the governmental environmental policy through the activities of various offices and regional organs. The current structure of the regional organs is a two-tier institutional system. The governmental structure of environmental administration is divided according to different environmental components. The Environmental Chief Inspectorate and the subordinate twelve environmental inspectorates belong to MEP as its decentralised organisations. The Chief Inspectorate is a state administrative organ on the national level. The environmental inspectorates are organised according to water catchment areas, instead of the usual county or regional setting. The nature conservation administration is a relatively separate organisational structure, headed by the MEP. The system includes nine nature conservation and national park directorates, organised according to natural areas. Other ministerial departments also have significant responsibilities in rural development matters. Possibly the most important is the Ministry of Economy, which has the overall responsibility for strategic planning. Development councils As a consequence of the Act on Regional Policy and Physical Planning in 1996, a whole system of regional development councils and offices was set up. This new institutional structure is not politically elected, but a multiform body in which various local actors are involved. All the councils at the different levels contain representatives of the political sector (ministries, local governments), the economic sector (national or regional chambers), the employers and employees side, and of the local authorities and their voluntary associations. The system theoretically is a very advanced and democratic one; however, there have been a lot of critiques about its work in practise. From a policy implementation aspect this institutional framework is rather important, because the regional- and county councils allocate the decentralised regional development funds. The new institutional system on the different levels is the following: National Regional Development Council The task of the National Regional Development Council (NRDC) and the Hungarian Regional Development Centre (which is practically the secretariat for NRDC) is to ensure coordination within the government. The NRDC is the national organisation for regional political partnership, its composition reflects the logic applied on all territorial levels (it comprises representatives of the government, municipalities, chambers and employers). NRDC is primarily a consultative organisation. However, according to the EU’s country study on Hungary, the co-ordination on the governmental level is the weakest point in regional development, which is closely related to the unclear division of competence and responsibility in this field. Regional Development Councils On the regional (NUTS 2) level 7 Regional Development Councils (RDC) and Regional Development Agencies as the councils' offices were set up. 95 As for the regional development councils, it is to be noted, that the weakest point of the entire Hungarian territorial system is the regional level. The 7 regions do not have traditions in Hungary and their formation is advancing very slowly. There had been attempts to create a regional level before the start of the accession negotiation; however, the most important reason for the creation of the regions was the expected EU policies. This intended to be a voluntary, bottom-up procedure, allowing the counties to form their alliances. However, in some regions the counties could not reach an agreement in forming the regions, which held back the whole process. As a consequence, regional councils and agencies, in some regions, did not work well or were not even set up. After three years of fights, in 1999, the Act on Regional Development was modified and the regions designated by law. Before the amendment of the Act on Regional Development in 1999 these regional councils did not have access to financial resources due to their uncertain status. The amended Act delegated similar tasks and responsibilities to the regional councils to those of the already operating county councils. The extension of responsibilities was coupled with a change in the councils’ composition. After the exclusion of chambers’ representatives and inclusion of several additional ministerial representatives the government’s control over the councils became almost complete. On the one hand this can certainly be regarded as a centralising trend; on the other hand this can also be explained as an initiative of the government to take part in regional policy actively. In this spirit the government committed itself to co-finance the bureaucracy of the councils. In 2001 the third of the Regional Development Fund is allocated by the RDC’s, which is a signal of their growing significance. However the allocation decisions of the RDS’s are made on the basis of an expert committee’s proposal, from which the RDC’s can only deviate with qualified majority voting. It is expected that this administrative level will be the main beneficiary of EU resources in the pre-accession programmes. County Development Councils County Development Councils (CDCs) and agencies had a temporary advantage over regional councils because the county level has long traditions in local policies and development in Hungary. Therefore the county councils had a solid administrative basis and a developed network of local connections to build on, which made them an indispensable institution for any type of territorial policy. Since the changes of the'90s however this administrative level is continuously losing its responsibilities, keeping only those tasks, which the local authorities were not able or willing to do. Nevertheless, counties are still an important factor in rural development, as they are involved in regional planning and decision making and dispose over a part of the decentralised resources for regional development. Although the central government has a weaker representation in the county councils than in the regional councils it still has means to influence its decisions. If the representative of MARD votes against the resolution of the council, then the minister can initiate a repeated discussion of the subject. In case of a repeated failure of the minister’s representative in the voting it can appeal to the NRDC. Development Councils in outstanding regions There are also some development councils and agencies, outside of this hierarchical system, created to develop some areas, outstanding for some reason. There are six of them consist of the councils: Budapest, the Lake Balaton, the area Lake Tisza, the Lake Velence, and the area of the roads, number 6 and number 56. 96 Sub-regions and settlements Below the county level there is a level of sub-regions, however, there are two sets of these. One is designated by law and is called the 'statistical sub-regions', covering the whole area of the country. This provides the framework not only for statistics, but also for every sort of designation in the Hungarian regional development system. The “statistical sub-region” level corresponds to the NUTS 4 level of the EU nomenclature, comprising normally 20-50 thousand inhabitants. The country is made up of 150 sub-regions. This system of sub-regions is all-inclusive and non-overlapping and does not transgress the county boundaries. (One county comprises generally 5-10 sub-regions). In most cases a sub-region consists of one major settlement (not necessarily urban) and the surrounding villages, which are linked to the centre through their infrastructure, economy, healthcare, education etc. A sub-region is thus a community of geographically contiguous settlements tied together by employment-, residential-, commuting-, medium level public service (education, trade, healthcare) relationships. In this system each town is a local centre, however there are also local centres which are not towns. The current system of sub-regions has been applied by the Central Statistical Office since 1 August 1997. Civil organisations After the changes there was a boom of NGOs and different civil organisations. In 1998 there were already more than 50 thousand of these all over the country, many of them connected to some aspects of local development. From a rural development perspective the most important ones are probably the voluntary associations of villages18, mentioned above, together with their local development agencies. These associations often have a significant influence locally, since some of them have the experience, connection and expertise to access EU and domestic funds as well as to plan and carry out local development projects and programmes. At the same time they are represented in the regional and county development councils and have some influence on rural development matters on a policy level. However, according to many critics, this representation is very weak, which is one of the drawbacks of the whole system. Another way to gain some political influence is through the Hungarian Rural Parliament. This was established in 1998, as an umbrella organisation for NGOs working in sustainable rural development. Today this association has 440 members, good connections with EU wide organisations (e.g. with the ECOVAST), and started to gain some political influence in the Hungarian arena for rural development. There are more than 200 environmental NGOs working with rural development issues. Although, environmentalism is not a mass movement (all NGOs together have approximately 10 18 Some of these are as old as ten years, with good institutional systems and connections in and out of their region, and having many experiences in EU and domestic development programmes. Others are much less successful or advanced and many of them came to existence only last year, as a consequence of an initiative of MARD, to provide resources for micro-regions to write their local development programmes in connection with the SAPARD Programme. 97 thousand members), it is quite influential in national and local politics These organisations vary in size, resources and possibilities to a great extent. The congress of Hungarian environmental NGOs is held once a year. It brings together all interested organisations and it chooses those 7 people, who represent environmental NGOs on the National Environmental Council. Representation of economic interests The representation of agricultural producers is a complicated issue in Hungary. First of all, the Chambers of Agriculture in Hungary is a statutory body, with compulsory membership; therefore it cannot represent the economic interests of agricultural producers. Most of the largescale agriculture is represented by the National Federation of Agricultural Co-operators (NFAC). They have a membership consisting of 1450 agricultural co-operatives (mainly the successors of the 'old co-operatives') 30 other kind of co-operatives, 100 companies and a lot of individual entrepreneurs, containing the largest agricultural integrators in Hungary. Their members hold approximately half of the cultivated area, and, together with the vertically integrated production, produce approximately 60-70% of the marketable agricultural products. The representation of small producers is a much more difficult issue. It is very much fragmented and not well organised. One of the reasons for this is that the one million small producers are very fragmented geographically as well as along their interests and approaches. There are a number of organisations, standing up for the rights of family farms and small enterprises. The most influential one is the National Association of Hungarian Farmers' Societies and Cooperatives (NAHFSC). Practically speaking it is an umbrella organisation, having 830 local farmers' unions as members, which represent 43 thousand farmers altogether. Some 50% of these are part time farmers, and approximately 20 thousand are full time agricultural entrepreneurs, representing one third of all of these in the whole of Hungary. Beside the NAHFSC there is a range of other organisations claiming to be the interest representatives of family farms of different types or from different areas. Members, aims, resources and achievements of these organisations vary greatly, therefore significant tensions can be identified and there is no institutionalised system for co-operation or for reaching consensus in important questions between them. Actual situation of the Hungarian implementation system of EAGGF After the Hungarian accession, the support conditions will be different from the current conditions in this structure and size, both in the agriculture and rural development. To get the right for the paying out of EU sources of the community subsidisation, Hungary needs a paying institution system accredited by the European Commission. This system is often called EAGGF paying agency, referring to the funds of the subsidies. The paying agency system includes all the tasks which are now, in the case of national support system, the tasks of any institutions, departments, county offices of MARD (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) or the TFCO (Tax an Financial Control Office). By the development of the Paying Agency, a new institution will be born which concentrates on the tasks of the above mentioned institutions (especially the financial authorisation, the payment and clearance of accounts functions) and co-ordinates those tasks which are delegable to other bodies (authorisation, checks and controls). 98 Co-ordination of the development of agricultural administration system In September of 2002 the Ministry created an administrative, state secretary supervised body, the Project Office for EU Institutions. Its main task is the co-ordination of institutional preparation during the pre-accession period. Its main goal is the development of the Paying Agency, which is essential for the correct operation of European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund (EAGGF), and the Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS). It is necessary the segregation of co-ordination of development and the competent authority functions because, respectively, the one means a project structure and management, the other suppose a continuous responsibility in the taking of necessary institutional decisions. Meanwhile this decision making body needs sufficient competency to take measures fast enough. The appointment of MARD for the preparation to be the competent authority and the development of the Project Office happened only in this year. Parallel to this, it has been shown clearly that the EU-conform reorganisation of the whole agricultural administration system is indispensable. Main tasks of the EAGGF Paying Agency The Paying Agency takes central place in two points of view in the EU agricultural institution system: 1. First, the paying agency means the lowest level in the financial control of the agricultural support system. The EU prescribes the main authority tasks to be segregated but the realisation is depend on the national financial control system of the Member State. 2. Second, the paying agency is the only one responsible for the financial clearance of accounts among the other bodies involved in the correct implementation of the EAGGF support system and other EAGGF measures. By these important functions, it play a significant intermediate role between the European Commission and the Member State, so it is the main implementing body of the agricultural administration system in a Member State. Groups of the implementation and payment tasks of the EAGGF paying agency: authorisation announcement of measures, approval of applications, concluding contracts, processing of applications acceptance and processing of license applications, issuing licences or concluding contracts, handling of stocks (intervention), payment and clearance of accounts (not delegable!) payment paying out of subsidies, handling of levies, guarantee management, payments, clearance of accounts and registration of levies (debtors ledger), reporting: monthly clearance of accounts and forecasts for the advance money of the EU, 99 yearly reports about the payments, the warehouses, the irregularities, the debts lists and the guarantees, reports about the realisation of measures in the case of programme financing, checks and controls physical control (ex-ante, simultaneous and ex-post, monitoring), external audit, internal audit of the institution itself, of the delegated tasks and of the subject of the subsidies. Delegated tasks and the tasks of the paying agency system The EU-conform implementation system supposes that only one institution (the paying agency) is responsible for the implementation of support schemes, however it can lay a charge on other bodies to implement some delegable tasks. Despite of this, in Hungary, nowadays, a lot of institutions and bodies are involved in the implementation system with different responsibilities. Besides, these bodies have to meet different requirements depending on the concerning national norms; e.g. it is a tax authority, a public institution or any body of the private sector. The following table demonstrates the implementation bodies of the present agricultural support system (according to the main tasks: authorisation, payment and control). 100 Bodies involved in the implementation of national schemes Name Authorisation Payment and accounting Direct payments County Offices, Checks and controls TFCO NIAQC, Land Registry TFCO, MARD, Offices, IGCRS Internal market measures AIC, County COG Rural AIC, Offices, Rural Development TFCO, COG, Development Councils Council, TFCO MARD External AIC, CFG, MET TFCO market TFCO, MARD, COG, CFG Intervention AIC, County Offices, AMRO, Public AIC, TFCO, Public warehouses TFCO, MARD, COG warehouses Investments County Offices, and rural Regional Rural development Development Offices, subsidies SAPARD Offices HST, TFCO, SAPARD Offices TFCO, MARD, COG, SAPARD Offices Abbreviations see at last page. 101 The main problem is not the fact that the authorisation process is shared among so much institutions because these tasks, together with control tasks, are delegable functions. These institutions have to meet uniform requirements in order to be able to relate to the paying agency about the correct implementation of their work. However, concerning the physical controls, today neither the methods of MARD and its county offices, nor the processes of TFCO and its county directorates meet the EU requirements in these aspects. The most significant problem is that the payment function is divided among so many institutions and only the AIC and the SAPARD Office are supervised by the MARD. After the accession, only one institution will be authorised to play such a responsible role. The EAGGF Guarantee Fund Paying Agency has important agricultural administration tasks, so that, it has to be developed under the control of MARD. The future paying agency has two important roles, the one is, it has to implement the basic functions, the other is, it has to co-ordinate effectively the other agricultural implementing bodies. It can delegate the authorisation and control tasks to other bodies. There are several proposals to the list of bodies involved in the implementation of delegated tasks. The Government approved the following institutions by the 2285/2002 (IX. 30.) Government Regulation: county offices National Institute for Agricultural Quality Control Institute for Geodesy, Cartography and Remote Sensing Research and Information Institute for Agricultural Economics Hungarian Agricultural Chamber Hungarian State Treasury The presentation (transmission) of implementation tasks of the concrete schemes has not decided yet, so that, the co-operation in order to create the implementation process between the paying agency’s centre and the regional institutions could not start. IACS In case of direct subsidy schemes, each step of the implementation (authorisation, payment and control) is based on a compulsory system, called Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS). This system consists of the following main data-bases: Land Parcel Identification System, System for Identification and Registration of Animals, Registration System for Farmers, Aid Application Management System. The connection between the above mentioned registrations is based on the integrated control system which collects and cross-checks the basic data for the administrative controls, besides, it means a solid base for the registration of physical controls. This complex system is not maintainable by only one Ministry supervised institution, in particular if the AIC is only asked for the preparation tasks and officially not appointed yet to the paying agency role. It is necessary to emphasise the central role of MARD, future competent authority, in the development of IACS because, despite of that it is used only for the direct payments (one among the five measures), it is the biggest budgetary item of the 102 accession preparation, and it needs the harmonisation of the existing or developing databases of the different bodies. Concerning the development of these data-bases, Hungary can produce partial results but because of the lack of co-ordination these results, in regard to the pressure of time, are quite small Abbreviations Tax and Financial Control Office – TFCO Agricultural Intervention Centre– AIC Agricultural Market Regime Office – AMRO (MARD) European Agricultural Guidance and Guarantee Fund – EAGGF County Offices – regional offices of MARD Institute for Geodesy, Cartography and Remote Sensing - IGCRS Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development - MARD Control Office of Government - COG Common Agricultural Policy - CAP National Institute for Agricultural Quality Control – NIAQC Customs and Finance Guard – CFG 6. LITERATURE 1. S. HTTP-ADRESSES IN TEXT 2. BAUER, Kai (2002): Documentation of the Idara Agricultural Sector Simulation Model for CEE Countries (i-sim). Unveröffentlichtes idara working paper 1/3. Verfügbar www.agp.uni-bonn.de/agpo/rsrch/idara/idara_e.htm. Stand 27.7.02. 3. 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(2000) Rural Entrepreneurship: A Key to the Development of Mountainous Areas in Southern Europe. Paper presented at International Conference: European Rural Policy at the Crossroads held at the Arkleton Centre for Rural Development Research, Aberdeen, Scotland. Roca, M.N. (2000) EU Policies and development stakeholders at the local level: The case of the Lima Valley, Northern Portugal. Paper presented at International Conference: European Rural Policy at the Crossroads held at the Arkleton Centre for Rural Development Research, Aberdeen, Scotland. Roca, Z (1998) Positive experiences in increasing the involvement of young men and women in rural development in Portugal in REU technical series 55 - Increasing the involvement of young men and women in rural development in Europe FAO , Rome. available URL: http://www.fao.org/docrep/w9778e/w9778e06.htm#positive experiences in increasing the involvement of young men and women in rural areas 105 IDARA plus QA for agricultural sector models Keywords: Quality management, Lowering autocracy, Complex Check lists Dr. László Pitlik, University of Gödöllő http://miau.gau.hu/miau/48 INPUTS OUTPUTS EAA plus 1998 (Fact) Expectations (Normative) Political variables (Normative) EAA plus 2006 (Estimation) Model Trends (Normative) Check list (Estimation) Reports with balances Visualisation Effects Elasticities (Normative) Important Aspects: Important Aspects: Statistical values have never been consistent itself, therefore they have to be modified / completed on the basis of assumptions. We may talk about FACT values only after these restrictions. These modifications may lead to sensible exogenous variables (e.g.: fallow land, grass land). The Output EAA should be the same detailed as the Input EAA. All the other inputs are assumptions from experts. For the yield trends AI based similarity analyses have to be used to assure authenticity of the estimations (Complex evaluation criteria are not given for the World market prices). Elasticities can not be easily (algorithmically) defined, but fortunately they don`t cause too much sensitivity for the model. For satisfying the expectations (input side) the check list values visualising (“green wave”). In the case of an unfulfilled expectation/restriction have to go through an iterative way (through changing a known /sensitive/ assumption). The report about the outputs should never be partial. It should better balance based, for proving the authenticity of the results for all the times. Without check listed expectations, without objective functions where assumptions are predefined, all the results are arbitrary. REMARKS: FACT = (quasi) the consistent reality, on the base of statistical data (after ABTA – rules) Estimation = Forecasts, endogenous values (algorithmical defined for all the cases) Normative = Hypothesis, Assumptions for exogenous variables (with different impacts for the model sensitivity) ABTA = Balances for products and monetary stream/flow (additional: Biological coefficients for animal breeding) AI = Artificial Intelligence (for assuring the authenticity of the intuitive assumptions) EAA106 plus = Activity-, regional, technology-, legal form based EAA Appendix: Check list for iterative modelling 107 Appendix 1: Population and settlements in Hungarian subregions Index, 19.1 I. developed II. middle developed, non-agricultural III. middle-developed, agricultural IV. under-developed, non-agricultural V. under-developed, agricultural Country total Rural total 12 20 9 21 30 150 92 Number of sub-regions Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Number of settlements 20 14 20 11 20 13 21 11 19 13 21 14 20 12 Number of towns 1,3 0,8 1,3 0,9 1,6 1,1 1,4 0,8 1,3 0,6 1,5 0,9 1,4 0,8 – 499 7,6 12,1 7,0 9,4 7,0 9,0 6,9 7,9 7,7 10,7 6,9 10,0 7,3 9,7 500-999 4,2 3,8 4,5 3,7 4,8 5,0 5,1 3,4 4,3 4,5 4,6 4,6 4,6 4,0 1000-1999 3,8 3,0 3,7 2,6 3,7 2,6 4,5 2,5 3,6 2,9 4,4 3,2 3,8 2,7 2000-4999 3,0 2,9 3,4 2,8 2,8 2,2 2,8 2,8 2,3 1,8 3,1 2,8 2,8 2,4 5000-9999 0,8 0,9 0,7 1,4 0,8 1,1 0,6 0,7 0,9 0,9 0,9 1,3 0,8 1,0 10000-49999 0,6 0,5 0,9 0,9 0,7 0,5 0,8 0,9 0,4 0,6 0,8 0,8 0,6 0,7 50000-99999 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,3 0,0 0,0 100000Area size km2 Resident population Change in population 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,0 606,9 209,3 610,9 298,8 706,9 290,6 609,6 241,7 618,4 274,2 620,2 309,9 621,9 262,6 43576,0 20207,4 41600,0 27236,2 34994,4 18128,1 38187,3 16684,3 29540,4 14020,3 66954,8 151021,2 36500,1 19650,0 -2,6 3,4 -2,5 3,1 -2,7 4,2 -1,8 2,1 -2,6 2,6 -1,6 4,3 -2,4 2,9 23133,4 14871,6 18761,5 18863,3 16329,8 10780,8 16893,0 15863,9 11632,3 8040,9 42613,4 150215,6 16342,6 14209,6 3925,9 4178,4 2751,3 2212,3 2406,8 1482,8 3131,5 4378,2 2259,8 1693,7 15574,2 147661,5 2797,3 2959,3 Population density (person/km2) 70,6 17,0 64,9 14,8 48,0 16,6 63,2 16,1 47,8 9,3 115,7 284,4 58,0 16,5 The rate of inhabitants in settlements with more than 120 population density 32,6 18,7 21,4 19,8 20,0 19,0 24,6 18,5 10,0 13,7 39,7 30,2 19,7 18,7 8,6 1,0 9,6 1,4 9,7 1,1 11,0 1,6 10,6 1,7 9,9 1,5 10,1 1,7 Population of towns Average population of towns Live births Deaths 13,0 1,5 14,6 1,9 15,3 2,2 14,9 1,8 14,8 1,7 13,9 1,9 14,6 1,9 Net migration 6,6 14,8 3,7 5,5 3,7 6,7 0,7 4,3 -0,8 3,7 2,5 7,5 2,0 7,2 Average net migration per 1000 inhabitants a year 0,6 5,3 -0,4 3,3 -0,4 3,4 -2,6 2,6 -3,4 2,9 -0,1 5,4 -1,7 3,6 The rate of people aged more than 60 years per population % 20,6 2,1 20,9 2,1 21,2 2,6 20,5 2,2 20,5 2,2 20,0 2,1 20,7 2,2 108 Appendix 2: Active earners and unemployed people in the Hungarian subregions Index, 19.2 Number of sub-regions 12 Avg. Agriculture and forestry active earners as % of all active Industry and construction active earners as % of all active Services active earners as % of all active Unemployment rate % 2000 Long-term (over 180 days) unemployed rate 1996 Long-term (over 180 days) unemployed rate 2000 Long-term (over 180 days) unemployed rate as % of total unemployment 1996 Long-term (over 180 days) unemployed rate as % of total unemployment 2000 Share of non-manual workers in unemployment 1996 Share of non-manual workers in unemployment 2000 Bed places of old people's club 1000, per people aged over 60 years Infants enrolled per 100 infant nursery places Unemployed percons received income supplement Other cases of support by local government Number of persons with public medical care card Inhabitants per GPs and Pediatricians Consulting hours in outpatient services (1000) Hospital beds in use per 10000 inhabitants Number of tax payers per 1000 inhabitants Gross income serving as basis of personal tax Personal income tax II. middle developed, nonagricultural I. developed III. middle-developed, agricultural 20 Std. Var. Avg. IV. under-developed, nonagricultural 9 Std. Var. Avg. V. under-developed, agricultural 21 Std. Var. Avg. Country total 30 Std. Var. Avg. Rural total 150 Std. Var. Avg. 92 Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. 24 4 23 4 38 7 24 3 36 6 23 11 29 8 35 8 38 6 28 3 38 5 28 5 37 9 33 7 41 7 39 5 34 6 38 5 36 4 40 8 37 5 5,3 1,8 5,6 2,4 6,5 1,5 10,5 3,4 11,5 3,6 7,3 3,9 8,7 4,0 3,7 1,2 4,0 1,1 4,4 1,2 7,2 1,7 7,9 2,4 5,1 2,5 6,0 2,5 2,4 1,1 2,7 1,4 3,3 1,0 5,8 2,4 6,1 2,4 3,7 2,4 4,5 2,5 51,3 7,6 51,7 5,5 53,2 5,5 59,0 5,5 59,4 7,2 54,8 7,6 56,0 7,3 44,9 7,7 47,3 4,6 50,9 6,5 54,1 7,8 51,7 6,8 48,7 7,6 50,3 7,3 15,9 2,5 13,6 3,1 14,2 3,1 10,7 2,4 10,6 2,4 14,7 5,2 12,3 3,3 16,9 3,0 15,0 2,8 13,1 2,7 10,7 2,2 10,6 2,6 15,5 5,7 12,7 3,5 18 7 27 15 17 7 27 14 37 27 24 17 28 19 120 46 83 58 92 70 89 61 89 69 103 53 92 62 8,3 4,4 10,3 7,1 12,7 6,1 26,6 11,4 27,9 13,9 15,5 12,6 19,7 13,5 356 254 315 166 2661 6776 351 137 488 443 510 1682 614 2140 41 13 50 12 57 12 61 14 68 18 52 17 58 17 1472 151 1531 150 1505 207 1618 163 1503 165 1533 158 1531 168 45,1 30,8 38,7 33,9 33,4 20,3 32,9 21,1 22,2 17,7 105,3 429,5 32,3 25,5 49 62 47 43 35 40 60 70 14 34 54 57 38 53 446 28 399 40 386 30 381 213 346 38 401 96 383 109 326662 45677 281146 43864 241734 43344 247323 75968 204961 33142 291711 84917 250664 64050 69459 13881 56495 11975 46067 9943 40685 8198 35960 7542 60102 25583 46861 15186 109 Appendix 3: Public utilities in the Hungarian subregions Index, 19.3 I. developed II. middle developed, non-agricultural III. middle-developed, agricultural IV. under-developed, non-agricultural V. under-developed, agricultural Country total Rural total 12 20 9 21 30 150 92 Number of sub-regions Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Dwelling stock, 1st Jan., 2001 17726,7 8286,5 16856,9 11243,7 14629,3 7774,9 14813,9 6339,6 12004,4 5851,4 27075,2 Inhabitants per 100 dwellings Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. 68055,3 14703,8 8023,9 246,3 16,0 249,0 18,1 238,9 18,9 258,0 13,5 247,8 21,8 253,2 19,2 249,3 18,8 Dwellings built 98,5 72,4 72,2 84,7 59,8 40,0 67,3 44,6 50,7 43,0 143,9 285,6 66,3 59,4 of which with 4 and more rooms (%) 36,4 10,7 33,2 13,7 26,2 9,1 21,7 13,6 26,5 20,5 30,9 15,2 28,1 16,1 Dwellings built per 1000 inhabitants Average floor place (sq. m) Ceised dwellings per 100 dwellings built Dwellings built in 1990-2000 as % per dwelling stock Households consuming piped gas as % of dwelling stock Annual piped gas consumption per household consumer (cu. m) Electricity consumption per household consumer (kWh) Dwellings connected to public water conduit network % of dwellings Dwellings connected to public sewerage conduit network % of dwellings Length of public sewerage per 1 km of water conduit network (m) Annual water consumption per inhabitant (cu. m) 2,6 1,5 1,5 0,8 2,0 1,2 1,7 0,7 1,6 0,9 2,1 1,4 1,8 1,0 107,7 18,8 103,5 15,2 91,2 12,1 88,5 9,6 93,2 17,4 97,6 16,3 96,0 16,4 31,0 42,2 45,1 36,8 36,8 39,0 48,6 28,8 100,8 147,3 47,5 76,9 61,4 92,3 8,4 3,6 7,1 2,1 7,2 1,7 7,6 2,1 7,4 2,6 7,8 2,9 7,5 2,5 64,8 24,0 51,3 19,3 51,8 21,9 55,2 11,7 45,6 19,9 57,0 20,7 52,2 19,6 1355,8 255,8 1430,8 240,9 1299,4 225,9 1426,1 255,9 1274,4 318,8 1380,7 312,8 1356,1 276,0 2128,7 623,0 2281,8 453,2 2277,5 327,3 2168,6 194,1 2259,6 292,5 2192,7 372,0 2228,3 371,6 94,6 4,5 90,0 7,6 86,2 7,8 85,2 8,7 85,8 10,7 89,6 9,1 87,8 9,1 40,5 15,3 25,9 12,3 21,7 13,3 19,4 9,1 13,8 7,5 33,6 21,5 22,0 13,5 393,3 215,9 257,9 173,8 257,9 238,6 221,3 124,3 174,4 120,2 326,1 216,9 240,0 172,2 36,1 6,9 30,9 5,7 31,2 7,0 24,2 4,3 27,2 5,0 31,2 8,0 28,9 6,6 Children enrolled in kindergartens per 100 places 95,4 7,1 92,7 9,8 92,1 10,4 99,9 8,7 98,3 9,9 98,0 9,8 96,5 9,6 Primary schools 17,8 7,7 19,1 7,2 16,0 8,2 19,4 7,1 15,0 7,9 24,6 34,6 17,4 7,7 Primary school pupils per class 20,6 1,8 19,1 2,7 19,6 2,8 20,0 1,8 19,7 2,0 20,4 2,2 19,8 2,2 3,3 1,8 3,2 2,6 2,4 1,7 2,8 2,7 1,9 1,3 7,0 22,1 2,6 2,1 Secondary schools Secondary school students per 1000 inhabitants 24,4 10,1 21,9 13,5 14,7 7,3 20,5 13,3 19,1 10,7 27,5 16,6 20,3 11,7 Full time students of higher education institutions per 1000 inhabitants 2,8 4,7 1,2 3,6 0,0 0,0 0,9 3,0 1,6 6,2 5,3 12,4 1,4 4,5 Average number of school grades 8,7 0,2 8,4 0,2 8,1 0,2 8,1 0,2 8,0 0,2 8,5 0,5 8,2 0,3 110 Appendix 4: enterprises in the Hungarian subregions Index, 19.4 Number of sub-regions Corporations and unincorporated enterprises total Corporations and unincorporated enterprises / sq. km Corporations and unincorporated enterprises per 1000 inhabitants Companies and partnerships Companies and partnerships of which employing 0 and unknown II. middle developed, nonagricultural 20 I. developed 12 III. middledeveloped, agricultural 9 IV. underdeveloped, nonagricultural 21 V. under-developed, agricultural Country total Rural total 30 150 92 Avg. 3244,9 Std. Var. 1944,1 Avg. 6448,4 Std. Var. 9593,6 Avg. 2393,3 Std. Var. 1090,3 Avg. 2060,2 Std. Var. 1314,5 Avg. 1977,7 Std. Var. 3298,8 Avg. 6128,9 Std. Var. 20724,0 Avg. 3174,4 Std. Var. 5177,0 5,5 1,9 5,6 5,1 3,3 1,3 3,1 1,2 2,3 1,0 10,0 39,0 3,7 2,9 72,2 15,9 66,0 16,8 61,6 8,7 47,9 9,7 47,2 8,7 64,6 21,3 56,1 15,5 1016,6 695,5 2168,8 3423,8 713,1 410,7 569,3 405,4 552,0 1080,3 2562,2 12040,8 983,8 1829,2 363,8 246,6 801,5 1263,1 236,9 137,3 208,7 155,6 182,1 369,1 1087,3 5906,6 351,9 671,4 538,2 392,5 1154,2 1840,4 382,7 232,3 291,6 212,6 297,6 589,8 1273,7 5470,8 522,1 984,9 Companies and partnerships of which employing 10-19 52,3 33,8 97,9 152,0 41,9 24,6 28,7 17,9 29,8 52,2 97,7 355,6 48,4 81,9 Companies and partnerships of which employing 20-49 37,3 24,7 63,7 96,6 29,2 16,1 23,0 15,2 23,2 40,2 60,4 194,8 34,4 53,6 Companies and partnerships of which employing 50-249 Companies and partnerships of which employing 250 and more Companies and partnerships in the field of agriculture, forestry and fishing Companies and partnerships in the field of industry and construction 21,0 13,2 42,5 61,3 19,7 9,7 15,1 11,7 16,6 23,4 35,0 100,9 22,8 33,6 4,1 3,7 9,2 16,2 2,8 2,2 2,3 2,8 2,6 7,6 8,2 27,5 4,2 9,2 72,8 35,4 126,3 159,5 70,9 36,7 67,5 23,7 75,6 69,1 92,9 106,8 83,9 88,0 218,3 146,0 444,8 654,4 185,2 117,6 140,8 87,8 119,0 206,0 518,0 2092,6 214,2 352,7 265,2 171,4 592,3 909,7 207,9 139,7 158,8 121,4 154,4 298,2 706,5 3231,3 270,3 490,0 77,0 60,5 122,5 208,1 31,1 18,0 23,3 19,0 28,4 69,5 103,7 380,3 54,3 112,8 251,2 229,2 593,1 1076,9 117,1 63,6 101,4 123,4 103,4 295,4 799,7 4705,9 230,0 565,2 2228,3 1779,0 435,7 1277,4 1024,8 257,5 4279,6 3471,4 787,4 6180,1 5059,3 1098,4 1680,2 1321,9 347,2 688,1 506,8 179,9 1490,9 1164,6 317,0 923,5 726,2 202,6 1425,7 1118,9 299,2 2224,0 1860,4 359,7 3566,7 2957,5 593,7 8810,6 7811,3 1008,2 2190,6 1746,7 431,9 3356,8 2755,5 591,9 156,0 80,3 278,2 373,1 195,4 117,0 140,4 75,4 186,9 169,9 198,4 202,2 192,9 209,6 Companies and partnerships of which employing 1-9 Companies and partnerships in the field of trade, repair Companies and partnerships in the field of hotels and catering Companies and partnerships in the field of real and business activities Sole proprietors Sole proprietors of which employing 0 and unknown Sole proprietors of which employing 1-9 Sole proprietors in the field of agriculture, forestry and fishing Sole proprietors in the field of industry, construction 409,5 237,5 824,0 1171,9 337,0 126,5 276,1 182,7 244,1 423,3 620,8 1294,7 408,1 640,9 Sole proprietors in the field of trade, repair 518,1 294,4 1006,6 1348,8 440,1 207,8 398,7 233,5 375,6 512,6 810,4 1581,5 542,9 743,1 Sole proprietors in the field of real and business activites 439,5 310,2 940,8 1485,4 254,2 107,8 239,7 168,1 225,6 458,5 893,7 3277,7 415,0 793,0 111 Appendix 5: Trade, tourism and services in the Hungarian subregions Index, 19.5 I. developed II. middle developed, nonagricultural III. middledeveloped, agricultural IV. underdeveloped, nonagricultural V. underdeveloped, agricultural Country total Rural total 12 20 9 21 30 150 92 Number of sub-regions Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Retail trade units total 785,5 306,8 609,4 439,5 570,8 341,2 532,1 238,6 439,8 218,5 1058,8 2404,1 555,7 319,1 Shops and department stores with food dominance 194,3 70,3 166,3 96,9 142,6 69,5 155,8 65,0 132,3 66,7 247,7 426,3 154,1 75,8 Retail trade units of which clothing products 109,4 56,7 65,3 55,7 64,1 43,8 53,8 32,1 39,3 26,1 142,2 410,2 59,8 46,2 Retail trade units of which hardware, paint and glasswares 53,0 28,2 41,0 31,9 36,8 24,7 28,9 16,1 22,6 12,7 65,3 137,7 33,4 24,0 Retail trade units of which electrical appliances 19,9 9,2 14,9 13,8 15,3 10,6 10,3 6,7 8,8 6,3 33,7 103,8 12,6 9,8 Retail trade units of which motor vehicle parts and accessories 16,7 8,6 14,1 12,1 17,1 18,7 14,2 9,1 10,6 6,5 30,3 73,0 13,6 10,4 Retail trade units of which furniture, household articles 19,3 9,9 14,0 13,8 12,6 10,5 9,6 6,5 7,1 5,0 26,9 71,1 11,3 9,7 9,2 4,3 9,0 6,6 7,2 4,4 7,2 3,6 5,9 3,7 13,2 29,3 7,4 4,7 Retail trade units of which pharmacies Retail trade units per 1000 inhabitants 19,4 6,4 14,4 2,9 15,6 2,4 14,0 2,0 14,9 2,8 15,8 4,3 15,2 3,7 Catering units total 319,8 167,6 195,4 123,5 160,3 88,2 176,3 86,5 142,6 77,8 333,0 635,5 186,6 118,0 Catering units of which restaurants, confectioneries 242,1 152,0 125,5 83,3 104,0 57,4 105,3 58,4 84,2 51,5 228,1 479,8 120,5 92,7 Catering units of which bars, taverns Public accomodation establishments bed places Public accomodation establishments bed places per 1000 inhabitants Public accomodation establishments tourist nights 67,1 30,5 59,9 36,9 51,0 30,6 60,5 26,9 51,8 30,1 79,7 84,2 57,5 30,9 3328,3 3248,7 726,1 805,5 440,2 335,5 623,7 594,6 579,4 927,9 2084,8 4747,3 966,3 1620,3 115,1 131,0 22,1 23,1 21,0 31,1 16,1 12,0 19,0 24,6 42,2 105,9 31,7 59,6 7153,0 9899,9 1010,6 1547,1 774,7 1197,9 534,1 483,9 429,9 475,0 2155,1 6494,9 1490,6 4184,2 Passanger cars per 1000 inhabitants 237,5 29,2 204,1 23,6 233,3 25,4 164,8 24,4 172,9 28,1 210,1 44,6 192,2 37,7 Telephone main lins per 1000 inhabitants 350,8 53,2 305,7 23,6 303,8 30,3 267,3 29,5 258,5 25,8 306,3 54,3 287,2 44,0 Number of homes connected to cable television network per 1000 inhabitants 137,3 70,2 110,4 64,6 104,2 76,3 77,3 60,3 65,2 48,1 128,0 91,5 91,0 64,5 112 Appendix 6: Agriculture in the Hungarian subregions Index, 19.6 I. developed II. middle developed, nonagricultural III. middledeveloped, agricultural IV. underdeveloped, nonagricultural V. under-developed, agricultural Country total Rural total 12 20 9 21 30 150 92 Number of sub-regions Avg. Number of private farms (1994) Number of private farms (2000) 9556,3 Std. Var. 4487,9 Avg. 11274,1 Std. Var. 7765,9 Avg. 10457,1 Std. Var. 5187,4 Avg. 10520,1 Std. Var. 4211,4 Avg. 9271,4 Std. Var. 4517,6 Avg. 11163,6 Std. Var. 7025,2 Avg. 10145,0 Std. Var. 5330,5 5468,9 2803,0 6341,5 4397,4 7069,7 4056,6 6239,9 2703,7 6000,4 2619,0 6390,2 4457,5 6164,5 3223,1 Number of persons belonging to private farms (1994) 26717,8 11710,3 31039,7 20442,7 28221,4 13597,4 29793,0 12046,2 25642,4 12222,5 31729,2 20102,2 28155,7 14296,4 Number of persons belonging to private farms (2000) 15022,5 7035,3 17198,7 11003,0 18744,6 9967,8 17403,3 7805,7 16399,8 7208,3 17655,9 12163,2 16852,3 8420,5 594,4 467,8 780,2 592,4 1031,7 949,1 794,1 380,2 975,1 576,1 822,1 702,7 847,3 579,0 Land use of private farms total (ha) (1994) 9710,3 6071,7 9699,6 5939,7 11929,1 7204,0 9395,1 5155,1 12043,6 6588,5 9998,0 7293,8 10613,9 6126,8 Land use of private farms total (ha) (2000) 17773,5 9810,7 18913,6 13532,3 25387,9 15196,7 18473,1 9176,7 21010,7 10568,6 19783,2 13961,7 19981,6 11354,9 Land use of private farms of which: arable land (2000) 11687,9 9379,8 12030,7 8855,5 12409,0 7424,1 12263,0 8310,3 14455,6 9329,6 12418,3 10149,2 12866,8 8720,3 685,8 1313,0 247,3 260,5 1672,0 4172,0 234,3 433,7 178,3 255,1 396,0 1161,6 418,4 1418,8 Private farms, cattle stock (1994) 1722,7 1258,4 2054,3 1545,3 1732,8 518,4 1625,7 1126,3 2180,5 1999,4 1733,7 1537,2 1922,9 1523,6 Private farms, cattle stock (2000) 1803,0 1584,6 2259,3 1910,7 1906,4 847,3 1753,3 1404,5 2042,5 1863,9 1824,4 1683,0 1979,1 1644,5 Private farms, pig stock (1994) 18837,2 16056,1 20899,8 14553,9 22353,1 11503,6 16175,5 11432,8 20297,8 13433,3 18739,8 15005,3 19498,3 13315,8 Private farms, pig stock (2000) 16841,8 18039,3 19800,7 16326,3 19222,4 10133,8 15237,8 13416,2 19267,7 14175,4 16788,6 15677,2 18142,9 14523,1 Number of persons belonging to private farms of which: full-time managers of private farms (2000) Land use of private farms of which: vineyards ha (2000) Number of agricultural enterprises (2000) Land use of agricultural enterprises total area ha (2000) Land use of agricultural enterprises of which: arable land (2000) Land use of agricultural enterprises of which: orchards ha (2000) Land use of agricultural enterprises of which: vineyards ha (2000) Agriculture enterprises, cattle stock (2000) Agriculture enterprises, pig stock (2000) 56,5 18,1 46,1 28,7 46,8 30,4 44,7 18,1 46,3 22,1 55,9 42,6 47,3 23,1 19098,4 10414,5 22074,7 20058,1 19251,2 20456,3 20128,3 18923,0 17825,4 13126,7 25558,8 26595,1 19580,3 16431,8 15263,6 9581,2 15414,6 10898,7 15034,9 17980,9 11845,1 9731,7 12501,2 9585,2 13344,4 10796,6 13592,9 10808,1 64,8 108,0 145,4 342,3 129,3 108,3 111,9 141,3 83,4 139,2 139,4 245,6 105,4 195,6 67,1 96,5 36,6 80,0 95,0 127,1 24,3 59,6 26,1 67,4 58,3 124,7 40,0 81,4 5368,4 4094,7 4431,5 4361,5 3122,9 3834,6 3169,0 3757,4 3715,5 3097,1 3845,2 3811,7 3904,1 3740,5 21307,8 18725,1 17800,3 23336,1 15824,6 28707,7 10499,8 14561,2 19053,9 23698,6 16824,1 23887,7 16806,9 21632,0 113 Appendix 7: Non-agricultural activities in the Hungarian subregions Index, non-agricultural activities I. developed II. middle developed, nonagricultural III. middledeveloped, agricultural IV. underdeveloped, nonagricultural V. underdeveloped, agricultural Country total Rural total 12 20 9 21 30 150 92 Number of sub-regions Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Full-time private farms per 10 sq. km (pcs/sq. km) 9,1 4,9 11,9 5,0 13,7 8,8 13,4 5,7 16,2 6,4 12,4 6,4 13,4 6,4 "Diversificated" private farms per 10 sq. km (pcs/sq. km) 6,7 9,2 3,3 2,7 7,5 12,0 3,6 3,2 3,1 3,9 4,6 5,5 4,2 5,8 "Diversificated" agricultural enterprises per 10 sq. km (pcs/sq. km) 0,5 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,1 0,4 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,4 0,2 Non-agricultural activities of private farms (Total=100) 8,2 12,0 3,7 3,1 6,6 8,4 3,7 3,3 3,4 4,5 5,2 7,3 4,5 6,1 Non-agricultural activities of private farms, of which: dairy 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 Non-agricultural activities of private farms, of which: vine-making 6,5 11,6 2,4 3,0 4,5 7,3 2,3 3,1 2,1 4,3 3,4 6,5 3,0 5,8 Non-agricultural activities of private farms, of which: feed-mixing 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 Non-agricultural activities of private farms, of which: transportation Non-agricultural activities of agricultural enterprises (Total=100) Non-agricultural activities of agricultural enterprises, of which: dairy Non-agricultural activities of agricultural enterprises, of which: vine-making Non-agricultural activities of agricultural enterprises, of which: feed-mixing Non-agricultural activities of agricultural enterprises, of which: transportation Full-time private farms (%) 114 Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. Avg. Std. Var. 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,2 0,1 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,3 48,0 11,5 50,0 12,8 45,2 15,2 43,0 11,1 46,4 12,6 46,8 13,4 46,5 12,4 0,4 0,8 0,4 1,0 0,1 0,4 0,2 0,9 0,6 1,3 0,5 1,2 0,4 1,0 3,6 5,6 1,3 1,9 2,5 4,1 1,9 3,6 1,9 5,6 2,1 4,0 2,0 4,4 8,2 6,6 8,4 6,5 9,8 6,8 6,9 4,6 8,3 6,5 7,1 5,5 8,1 6,1 11,7 6,1 14,2 6,6 10,3 6,5 12,2 4,3 13,2 5,0 12,2 5,7 12,7 5,5 10,0 3,0 11,9 3,0 13,3 5,6 12,5 2,6 15,8 4,0 12,0 4,2 13,2 4,1