Chapter 21 CREDIT AND INVENTORY MANAGEMENT SLIDES 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.9 21.10 21.11 21.12 21.13 21.14 21.15 21.16 21.17 21.18 21.19 21.20 21.21 21.22 21.23 21.24 21.25 Key Concepts and Skills Chapter Outline Credit Management: Key Issues Components of Credit Policy The Cash Flows from Granting Credit Terms of Sale Example: Cash Discounts Credit Policy Effects Example: Evaluating a Proposed Policy – Part I Example: Evaluating a Proposed Policy – Part II Total Cost of Granting Credit Credit Analysis Example: One Time Sale Example: Repeat Customers Credit Information Five Cs of Credit Collection Policy Inventory Management Types of Inventory Inventory Costs Inventory Management – ABC EOQ Model Example: EOQ Extensions Quick Quiz Appendix 21A.1 Alternative Credit Policy Analysis 21A.2 Discounts and Default CASES The following case from Cases in Finance by DeMello can be used to illustrate concepts in this chapter. Managing Credit Terms A-284 CHAPTER 21 CHAPTER WEB SITES Section 21.1 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.7 End-of-chapter material Web Address www.treasury.pncbank.com www.eycashmanagement.com www.ny.frb.org/pihome/addpub/credit.html www.nacm.org www.creditworthy.com www.dnb.com www.simba.org www.economagic.com CHAPTER ORGANIZATION 21.1 Credit and Receivables Components of Credit Policy The Cash Flows from Granting Credit The Investment in Receivables 21.2 Terms of the Sale The Basic Form The Credit Period Cash Discounts Credit Instruments 21.3 Analyzing Credit Policy Credit Policy Effects Evaluating a Proposed Credit Policy 21.4 Optimal Credit Policy The Total Credit Cost Curve Organizing the Credit Function 21.5 Credit Analysis When Should Credit Be Granted? Credit Evaluation and Scoring 21.6 Collection Policy Monitoring Receivables Collection Effort CHAPTER 21 A-285 21.7 Inventory Management The Financial Manager and Inventory Policy Inventory Types Inventory Costs 21.8 Inventory Management Techniques The ABC Approach The Economic Order Quantity Model Extensions to the EOQ Model Managing Derived-Demand Inventories 21.9 Summary and Conclusions Appendix 21A More on Credit Policy Analysis A. Two Alternative Approaches B. Discounts and Default Risk ANNOTATED CHAPTER OUTLINE 21.1. Credit and Receivables Slide 21.1 Slide 21.2 Slide 21.3 Key Concepts and Skills Chapter Outline Credit Management: Key Issues A. Components of Credit Policy -Terms of sale – defines credit period and any available discounts -Credit analysis – estimating probability of default for individual customers to determine who receives credit and at what terms -Collection policy – what steps will be taken to collect on receivables, particularly when customers are late with their payment Slide 21.4 Components of Credit Policy B. Slide 21.5 The Cash Flows from Granting Credit The Cash Flows from Granting Credit A-286 CHAPTER 21 C. The Investment in Receivables The investment in receivables depends upon the average collection period and the level of average daily credit sales. Accounts receivable = average daily sales * average collection period Lecture Tip, page 709: Some students might question why the amount of investment in accounts receivables is the daily sales times ACP, since “sales” contains cost plus profit, and the out-ofpocket investment required would be the cost of the receivables, excluding the profit reflected in the receivables balance. Point out that the analysis refers to the funds committed to this balance. If the receivables balance could be reduced by ten days, these ten days’ receivables would be immediately freed up. Therefore, the investment in receivables should be viewed in terms of the funds that are tied up. 21.2. Terms of the Sale -Credit period – amount of time allowed for payment -Cash discount and discount period – percent of discount allowed if payment is made during the discount period -Type of credit instrument A. Basic form The terms 2/10 net 60 mean you receive a 2% discount if you pay in 10 days, total amount due in 60 days if the discount is not taken. In this example, the 60 days is the credit period, the 10 days is the discount period and the 2% is the cash discount amount. The invoice date is the date for which the credit period starts. This is normally the shipping date, but some companies may post date the invoice to encourage customers to order early. Slide 21.6 Terms of Sale B. The Credit Period Credit Period – the length of time before the borrower is supposed to pay CHAPTER 21 A-287 Two components: net credit period and discount period Invoice date – begins the credit period, usually the shipping or billing date -ROG – receipt of goods -EOM – end-of-month (invoice date is the end of the month for all sales) -Seasonal dating – invoice date corresponds to the “season” of the goods Length of the credit period depends on: -Buyer’s inventory and credit cycle -Perishability and collateral value -Consumer demand -Cost, profitability and standardization -Credit risk -Size of the account -Competition -Customer type C. Cash discounts Offered by sellers to induce early payment. Not taking the discount involves a cost of credit for the purchaser. Cost of credit – the cost of not taking discounts offered (this is a benefit to the company granting credit) Periodic rate = (discount %) / (100 – discount %) Number of periods per year = m = 365 / (net period – discount period) APR = m(periodic rate) EAR = (1 + periodic rate)m – 1 Example: Consider terms of 1/15, net 45 (assume payment is made on time in 45 days when the discount is foregone) Periodic rate = 1/99 = .0101 Number of periods per year = m = 365 / (45 – 15) = 12.166667 APR = 12.166667(.0101) = 12.288% EAR = (1.0101)12.166667 – 1 = 13.01% A-288 CHAPTER 21 Lecture Tip, page 711: When a company does not take advantage of discount terms, such as those given above, it is effectively borrowing the invoice amount at 1% for 30 days. Some students will want to use the total time period (45 days); so it is important to emphasize that the company is only borrowing the money at the discount rate for the period between the end of the discount period and the net period. Slide 21.7 Example: Cash Discounts Offering discounts generally reduces the average collection period and thus the cash cycle. This reduces the amount of financing required, but the company loses sales in the amount of the discount taken. Consequently, the firm needs to look at the size and timing of the expected cash flows to determine what, if any, discount should be offered. D. Credit instruments Evidence of indebtedness -Open account – invoice only -Promissory note – basic IOU, may be used when the order is large or the purchasing firm has a history of late payments -Commercial draft – request for funds sent directly to the purchaser’s bank -Sight draft – payable immediately -Time draft – payment required by some future date -Trade acceptance – buyer accepts draft with agreement to pay in the future -Bankers’ acceptance – bank accepts draft and guarantees payment International Note, page 713: Various investments have been developed to shift the risk of non-payment of receivables in international transactions from the seller to a financial institution. For example, the banker’s acceptance is an irrevocable letter of credit issued by a bank guaranteeing payment of the face amount. A letter of credit is simply a promise from the buyer’s bank to make payment upon receipt of the goods by the buyer. Point out that, while these guarantee arrangements add to the cost of doing business, their existence greatly facilitates international trade. CHAPTER 21 A-289 21.3. Analyzing Credit Policy A. Credit Policy Effects -Revenue effects – price and quantity sold may be increased -Cost effects – the cost of running a credit plan and collecting receivables -Cost of debt – firm must finance receivables -Probability of nonpayment – always get paid if you sell for cash -Cash discount – affects payment patterns and amounts Slide 21.8 Credit Policy Effects B. Evaluating a Proposed Credit Policy Lecture Tip, page 714: It’s useful to point out that the process for determining the NPV of a credit policy switch is no different from the process for determining the NPV of a capital asset replacement (or “switch”). The analysis involves a comparison of the marginal costs with the marginal benefits to be realized from the switch. If a company liberalizes credit terms, the present value of the marginal profit is compared to the immediate investment in a higher receivables balance. If a company tightens credit, lower sales should be expected. The present value of the reduction in profit is compared to the cash realized from the lower amount invested in receivables. Slide 21.9 Example: Evaluating a Proposed Policy – Part I Slide 21.10 Example: Evaluating a Proposed Policy – Part II Define: P = price per unit v = variable cost per unit Q = current quantity sold per period Q = new quantity expected to be sold R = periodic required return (corresponds to the ACP) Benefit of switching is the change in cash flow (P – v)Q - (P – v)Q = (P – v)(Q - Q) A-290 CHAPTER 21 Periodic benefit is the gross profit * change in quantity. The PV of switching is: PV = [(P – v)(Q - Q)] / R The cost of switching is the amount uncollected for the period + additional variable costs of production: Cost = PQ + v(Q - Q) Finally, the NPV of the switch is: NPV = -[PQ + v(Q - Q)] + (P – v)(Q - Q)/R A break-even application – what change in quantity would produce a $0 NPV? Q - Q = PQ/[(P-v)/R - v] 21.4. Optimal Credit Policy An optimal credit policy is one in which the incremental cash flows from sales are equal to incremental costs of carrying the increased investment in accounts receivable. A. The Total Credit Cost Curve Slide 21.11 Total Cost of Granting Credit Credit policy represents the trade-off between two kinds of costs: Carrying costs: -the required return on receivables -the losses from bad debts -the costs of managing credit and collections Opportunity costs: -potential profit from credit sales lost B. Organizing the Credit Function Credit operations may be outsourced due to the cost of managing such operations CHAPTER 21 A-291 Those that manage credit operations internally may either selfinsure against bad debts or may purchase credit insurance A final alternative is to set up a subsidiary that handles the credit operations Lecture Tip, page 718: As noted in the text, separating the finance and non-finance lines of business by creating a captive finance subsidiary may lower the firm’s overall cost of debt. Dennis E. Logue suggests that this is due, in part, to the fact that “different levels of assets can support varying degrees of leverage.” Put another way, this suggests that the standard an analyst would apply to the financial statements of the parent should reflect the parent’s main line(s) of business, while the standards applied to the statements of the subsidiary should reflect the fact that it is a finance company. (See Dennis E. Logue, The Handbook of Modern Finance, second edition, Warren, Gorham, and Lamont, 1990.) 21.5. Credit Analysis Slide 21.12 Credit Analysis Lecture Tip, page 718: Students receive a large number of credit card offers during their college career. This can provide a good example of why credit analysis and assessing borrowing rates is so important. The default rate is generally higher among college students; however, companies can charge 18% to 21% on unpaid balances. Since college students are also more likely to carry a balance, the marginal benefit of the interest earned outweighs the marginal cost of defaults. The bank also controls the risk of default by providing lower credit limits to college students than to individuals that have been working several years. A. When Should Credit Be Granted? One-Time Sale Let be the percentage of new customers who default NPV = -v + (1 - )P / (1 + R) The firm risks –v to gain P a period later. Slide 21.13 Example: One Time Sale Repeat Business NPV = -v + (1 - )(P – v)/R Slide 21.14 Example: Repeat Customers A-292 CHAPTER 21 B. Credit information: -Financial statements -Credit reports (i.e., Dun and Bradstreet) -Banks -Customer’s payment history Slide 17.18 Five Cs of Credit C. Credit Evaluation and Scoring Credit evaluation – trying to estimate probability of default Five Cs of Credit -Character – evidence of willingness to pay -Capacity – ability to pay out of operating income -Capital – financial reserves -Collateral – assets that can be pledged as security -Conditions – economic conditions that may affect the firm’s ability to pay Slide 21.16 The Five C’s of Credit Lecture Tip, page 721: You may wish to emphasize here that fullblown credit analysis contains both quantitative and qualitative aspects. As any loan officer will tell you, using the five C’s to evaluate a potential borrower reflects both types of considerations. For example, capacity and capital are measured primarily by examination of the borrower’s financial statements, while character is measured by both the borrower’s prior credit history, as well as by the lender’s (often highly unscientific) assessment of the borrower’s integrity. Complicating the decision is that the most difficult C to assess, character, is often said to be the most important determinant of repayment. After all, if a borrower is unwilling to repay, what difference do the other characteristics make? Credit scoring – assigning a numerical rating to customers based on credit history Ethics Note, page 721: Credit scoring models were initially introduced in the 1940s and became widespread in the 1960s. Companies that use scoring models need to use great care to make sure that the factors that determine the credit score do not depend CHAPTER 21 A-293 on race, gender, geographic location or any other criteria that could be considered discriminatory. Failure to take the proper precautions is not only unethical; it can lead to substantial legal problems, customer ill will and lost sales. 21.6. Collection Policy A. Monitoring receivables Keeping track of payments to try and spot potential problems (chronic late-payers and possible defaults) to reduce losses. Slide 21.17 Collection Policy Aging schedule – a break-down of receivables accounts by age Lecture Tip, page 723: Wilbur Lewellen and Robert Johnson demonstrate that two of the traditional receivables monitoring tools – average collection period and the aging schedule – are influenced by the pattern of sales and may be misinterpreted by managers that are unaware of this effect. Fortunately, eliminating this problem is straightforward; use outstanding balances as a percentage of the original sales that generated them. Their solution is discussed in detail in “Better Way to Monitor Accounts Receivable,” Harvard Business Review, May-June, 1972, pp. 101 – 109. B. Collection effort The sequence of steps taken in collecting overdue accounts. Typical steps: -Send delinquency letter -Call customer -Employ collection agency -Initiate legal proceedings Lecture Tip, page 723: Health-care providers face unusual challenges in dealing with collection policy. A correspondent on the financial management listserv made the following comments regarding collection policy and procedure for a multi-specialty physician’s group. “When patients have to pay after all insurance has been collected, you can either devote a staff person to make the laborious calls, etc. or turn it over to an A/R firm. To reduce A-294 CHAPTER 21 staff time, have staff make one letter billing in 15 days and one call 15 days later.” “If patient hasn’t paid in 30 days, turn it over to the A/R firm. This firm contacts the patient for up to 60 days as a ‘billing agent’ NOT COLLECTION FIRM to ask the patient to comply in a ‘soft’ manner – YOU DO NOT WANT TO UPSET PATIENTS!!” (emphasis in original) “After 60 days, the account turns into aggressive collection and the A/R firm turns into an aggressive COLLECTION AGENCY with all the powers to collect.” In other words, the steps in the collection policy used at this firm progress from mild to aggressive, as suggested in the text. Real-World Tip, page 724: Securitization involves selling an expected series of cash flows to investors. It works something like this: a company has accounts receivable of $10 million with an average collection period of 45 days. The accounts receivable might be packaged as securities and sold to investors at 95% of its value, or $9.5 million. When customers make payments on their accounts, the money is forwarded to the investors. The company receives its cash much sooner and the investor bears the risk of default on the accounts. The larger the probability of default on the accounts, the larger the discount the investor will require. Similar securities have been developed for mortgages, student loans, etc. 21.7. Inventory Management A. The Financial Manager and Inventory Policy Many people, not just those in the finance function, influence the level of inventory. Nonetheless, financial managers see the results of inventory decisions in many places – ROA, inventory turnover and Days’ Sales in Inventory ratios, to name a few. Slide 21.18 Inventory Management Slide 21.19 Types of Inventory B. Inventory Types For a manufacturer, inventory is classified into one of three categories: -Raw materials -Work-in-progress -Finished goods CHAPTER 21 A-295 Classification into one of these categories depends on the firm’s business; what are raw materials for one firm may be finished goods for another. Inventory types have different levels of liquidity. Demand for raw materials and work-in-progress depends on the demand for finished goods. C. Inventory Costs There are two basic types of costs associated with current assets in general and inventory in particular – carrying costs and shortage costs. Slide 21.20 Inventory Costs Lecture Tip, page 725: Boeing/McDonnell Douglas Corporation, in St. Louis, Missouri, is one of the largest manufacturers of military aircraft in the world. For many years, the firm has employed hundreds of subcontractors not only to produce aircraft components, but also to maintain stocks of raw materials inventory for the firm. Inventory managers have found that it is often less costly to pay someone to maintain these inventories. 21.8. Inventory Management Techniques A. The ABC Approach Inventory is subdivided into three (or more) groups and the groups are analyzed to determine the relationship between inventory value and quantity represented in each group. Slide 21.21 Inventory Management – ABC B. The Economic Order Quantity Model EOQ – the restocking quantity that minimizes total inventory costs based on the assumption that inventory is depleted at a steady pace. Total carrying costs = (average inventory)(carrying cost per unit) = (Q/2)(CC) Total restocking costs = (fixed cost per order)(number of orders) = F(T/Q) A-296 CHAPTER 21 Total costs = carrying costs + restocking costs = (Q/2)(CC) + F(T/Q) EOQ 2TF CC The EOQ is the point where the total carrying costs just equal to the total restocking costs. Slide 21.22 EOQ Model Lecture Tip, page 727: The EOQ model assumes that the firm’s inventory is depleted at a constant rate until it hits zero. Firms with seasonal demand may not be able to use the EOQ model without some adjustments. One way to adjust the equation is to compute “T” based on the high sales level and use that number to compute the EOQ during periods of high sales. Conversely, during periods of low sales, compute “T” based on the low sales figures and use that number to compute EOQ. What will happen is that the “optimal” order quantity will change depending on the seasonality in sales. Another option is to try and develop a cost formula that accounts for the seasonality and then use calculus to minimize the new cost function. Lecture Tip, page 729: If students have had calculus, you can point out that this is just the quantity that minimizes the cost function and can be found by taking the first derivative, setting it equal to zero and solving for Q. Q T TC CC F 2 Q TC CC FT 2 0 Q 2 Q CC FT 2 2 Q 2 FT Q2 CC 2 FT Q CC Slide 21.23 Example: EOQ CHAPTER 21 A-297 C. Extensions to the EOQ Model -Safety stocks – minimum level of inventory that must be kept on hand, inventory won’t actually reach zero, will increase the carrying cost component above what is predicted by the EOQ model -Reorder points – place orders before inventory reaches a critical level. Designed to account for delivery time Slide 21.24 Extensions D. Managing Derived-Demand Inventories -Materials Requirements Planning – computer based systems that manage the manufacturing process to make sure that inventory will be available when it is required -Just-in-Time Inventory – order inventory so that it will arrive when needed. Reduces the cost of storing inventory. Lecture Tips, page 733: The primary advantage of JIT systems is the reduction in inventory carrying costs that, for a large manufacturer, can be substantial. As with every financial decision, however, there is no increase in return without an increase in risk. In this instance, the risk is that an interruption in the supply of inventory items will require the user to shut down production virtually immediately. As part of a larger program to reduce costs, GM adopted a variant of the JIT system, but found it necessary to temporarily halt production of some models in early 1994 as a result of labor strikes at a supplier’s plants. 21.9. Summary and Conclusions Slide 21.25 Quick Quiz A-298 CHAPTER 21 APPENDIX 21A ANALYSIS A. MORE ON CREDIT POLICY Two Alternative Approaches Slide 21A.1 Alternative Credit Policy Analysis 1. The One Shot Approach No switch cash flow: (P – v)Q Switch cash flow: invest vQ now, receive PQ next period Present value of switch net cash flow: PQ / (1 + R) - vQ NPV = present value of switch net cash flow – no switch cash flow NPV = PQ / (1 + R) - vQ - (P – v)Q If repeated every period, the firm gets the NPV now and in every period, giving: PQ / (1 + R) - vQ - (P – v)Q + { PQ / (1 + R) - vQ - (P – v)Q}/R This reduces to: -[PQ + v(Q - Q)] + (P – v)(Q - Q)/R 2. The Accounts Receivable Approach Periodic benefit: (P – v)(Q - Q) Incremental investment in receivables: PQ + v(Q - Q) Carrying cost per period: [PQ + v(Q - Q)]*R Net benefit per period: (P – v)( Q - Q) – {[PQ + v(Q - Q)]*R} NPV = [(P – v)( Q - Q) – {[PQ + v(Q - Q)]*R}]/R This reduces to: -[PQ + v(Q - Q)] + (P – v)(Q - Q)/R Example: Suppose we have the following information for Griffie International, which is considering a change from no credit terms to terms of net 20. P = 100; v = 75; Q = 1,000; Q = 1,050; R = 1.5% for 20 days Using the original method: NPV = -[100*1,000 + 75(1,050 – 1,000)] + (100 – 75)(1,050 – 1,000)/.015 = -$20,416.67 CHAPTER 21 A-299 Using the one-shot approach: NPV = [(100*1,050)/1.015 – 75*1,050] – (100 – 75)*1,000 + {[(100*1,050)/1.015 – 75*1,050] – (100 – 750)*1,000}/.015 = -$20,416.67 To break even, Griffie needs 63 additional units. B. Discounts and Default Risk Slide 21A.2 Discounts and Default Define: = percentage of credit sales that go uncollected d = percentage discount allowed for cash customers P = credit price (no discount) P = cash price = P(1 – d) Assuming no change in Q, then: Net incremental cash flow = [(1 - )P - v]Q – (P – v)Q = PQ(d - ) NPV = -PQ + PQ(d - )/R A break-even application: = d – R(1 – d) is the break-even default rate.