Pantropic Analysis of the Functional Value of Biodiversity Phase I Final Draft Report (version 2) Kate Sebastian1 Stanley Wood2 Report produced as the final Phase I output of the Project “Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis” undertaken through a partnership of the World Bank (DECRG) and the ASB (Alternatives to Slash and Burn) Consortium of CGIAR-affiliated research organizations and their local partners and funded in part by the Bank Netherlands Partnership Programme (BNPP). 1 2 GIS Analyst/Consultant Senior Scientist, International Food Policy Research Institute BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis BNPP Project Pantropic Analysis of the Functional Value of Biodiversity The primary objective of the BNPP Project is to look at the means, at various scales, of assessing the functional contribution of biodiversity conservation to rural livelihoods. The operational focus is on locating those areas where one might expect to find synergies between conservation efforts and hydrological benefits for local populations. The project goals comprise 1) to critically review existing and available global datasets that could be used to identify the extent of a pantropical area of biodiversity interest (or ‘Focus Area’); 2) to map and analyze the relationships among the defined Focus Area and other globally available data to define areas of hydrological concern as well as to assess the magnitude of populations living in these areas; 3) to provide a framework and collection of databases for broadly identifying critical or priority areas and 4) to work with DECGR’s GIS unit, to determine the value of performing such analyses at a pantropic scale. The Phase I activities described here involved three clusters of activities: 1. Delineation of the Pantropical Focus Area based on global climatological data. The Focus Area was first defined using climate variables. The delineation of the Focus Area allowed some basic measures of its relative importance to be addressed: i. What share of the area and population of the tropics falls within the Focus Area? ii. What is the regional and national breakdown of the Focus Area by area and population? 2. Characterization of the Pantropic Focus Area. These activities defined the intrinsic properties of the Focus Area and their spatial variability in terms of land cover, hydrology and biodiversity. These activities addressed the following questions: i. What is the distribution of land cover within the Focus Area? ii. How would the Focus Area change if it were defined on hydrologically-relevant spatial units? What share of the area and population of the tropics falls within such units? iii. What is the coincidence of the Focus Area and tropical forest biomes? To what extent have these forests been converted? 2 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis iv. Can we improve our representation of the physiographic characteristics of the Focus Area? What is the distribution of physiographic characteristics within the tropical forest biomes? v. How well do the WWF Ecoregion boundaries correspond with the boundaries of the Focus Area? 3. Identification of “Critical Areas” Having assessed the broad heterogeneity of biophysical conditions within the Focus Area, questions of critical sub-areas were addressed. This involved identifying hydrological and biodiversity measures representing value or threat, that might therefore be of priority in assessing the potential benefit of interventions. This is tricky at the Pantropic scale, and much of the planned Phase II activity will be to validate and improve such measures through 1) the incorporation of improved and/or new global datasets (e.g. rural populations) and 2) comparative assessments with richer regional datasets for Central America and Mountainous South-East Asia. The questions posed in Phase I regarding potentially “critical” areas were: i. What urban populations might be at risk from significantly altered hydrological function as a consequence of upstream land use change? ii. Where, within the Focus Area, are the most important areas of biological diversity? iii. What practical measures of biodiversity “value” are available for these critical areas? iv. Can we identify forest margin areas using existing coarse resolution satellite data? The remainder of the report contains question-by-question sections grouped within each of these three activity areas. The final section summarizes the major findings and recommendations with regard to proposed Phase II activities. 3 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Section 1 Delineation of the Pantropic Focus Area 4 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis What share of the area and population of the tropics falls within the Focus Area? The first stratification of the BNPP/ASB pantropical region was ecological. This stratification was based on agroclimatic factors derived from temperature and rainfall (Figures 1-3 show the progress from Agroclimatic Zones to the Focus Area). Using these data we defined the Focus Area as the Warm humid and subhumid tropics based on the following criteria: Tropics – areas with year-round average monthly temperature adjusted to sea level of greater than 18 degrees Celsius Humid – average length of growing period at least 270 days per year Subhumid – average length of growing period 180 – 269 days per year Warm – mean daily temperature during the growing season greater than 20 degrees Celsius As shown in Table 1, the humid and subhumid tropics comprise 29% and 25% of the tropics, respectively. The majority of these regions have warm climates (92% and 90%, respectively). By eliminating the cooler areas from the focus area we are able to focus on regions that exhibit similar biophysical potential as well as greater spillover potential related to policies and technical innovations. The resulting area, defined here as the Focus Area, covers approximately 24 million square kilometers, just under 50 percent of the tropics and approximately 19 percent of total global land area (excluding Antarctica). Approximately 1.1 billion people live in the area – this represents over 56 percent of those living in the tropics and approximately 19 percent of total global population. Data sources: Tropics: Agroclimatic Zones from FAO/IIASA (2000) Global Agro-ecological Zones CD v1.0 based on University of East Anglia (UEA) monthly time series climate data (UEA 1998 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/cru.htm). Length of Growing Period: Agroclimatic Zones from FAO/IIASA (2000) Global Agroecological Zones CD v1.0 based on University of East Anglia (UEA) monthly time series climate data (UEA 1998 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/cru.htm). Temperature: Modeled using FAO/IIASA Thermal Zone surface from FAO/IIASA (2000) Global Agro-ecological Zones CD v1.0 and rules for defining major climate zones (FAO 1981 Report on the Agro-Ecological Zones Project) Population: Two global population datasets were used in this analysis. The Global Population of the World (GPW) dataset (CIESIN 2000) is a raster dataset at a resolution of 2.5 arc minutes (approximately 5x5 km) which contains population count and density for 1995 (Figure 4). The GPW provides estimates of the population of the world in 1990 and 1995, both population counts (raw counts) and population densities (per square km) 5 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis are available. The gridded data is drawn from over 127,000 administrative units (approximately 60,000 outside of the US). The national totals of these disaggregated data have been harmonized with United Nations estimates for those years. The LandScan Population dataset (ORNL 2000) is a raster dataset compiled at a resolution of 30 arc seconds (approximately 1x1 km) containing population estimates for 2000 (Figure 5). LandScan 2000 was developed as part of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Global Population Project for estimating ambient populations at risk. Census counts (mainly at sub-national level) were apportioned to each grid cell based on probability coefficients, which are based on proximity to roads, slope, land cover and nighttime lights. Although the Landscan data has a higher output resolution than the GPW, it is based on significantly lower resolution input data (approximately 69,000 administrative units with only 10,000 outside of the US) (Deichmann 2001). Note: Most of the population estimates for this study were derived from GPW. In some cases, however, estimates were made using both datasets and a range was given or an average reported. This is noted on each the table. *per GPW (CIESIN 2000) Table 1: Area & Population* by Tropical Agroclimatic Zones Agroclimatic Zone Area (000 sq km) Population (percent) (000 people) (percent) Humid Tropics Warm Moderately cool / cool / cold 14,343 29.7% 548,168 28.4% 13,203 1,139 92.1% 7.9% 444,448 103,720 81.1% 18.9% Subhumid Tropics Warm Moderately cool / cool / cold 12,053 24.9% 747,046 38.7% 10,838 1,214 89.9% 10.1% 641,263 105,783 85.8% 14.2% Arid / Semi-arid Tropics 21,942 45.4% 632,875 32.8% Total tropics 48,338 100.0% 1,928,089 100.0% Focus Area 24,042 49.7% 1,085,711 56.3% 6 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis What is the regional and national breakdown of the Focus Area by area and population? Since there are many regional differences in agroclimatic conditions and since many policy and investment decisions are made at the regional or country level the Focus Area was further divided into sub-regions based on country level administrative boundaries. This perspective helps us get a sense of the relative importance of the Focus Area by region (and country) in terms of the share of total areas as well as the share of total population. The 5 subregions are (see Figure 6): Mesoamerica and the Caribbean South America Sub-Saharan Africa Mainland Asia Insular Southeast Asia (Peninsular Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines & PNG) The majority of the focus area is in South America (44 percent) with 33 percent falling in Sub-Saharan Africa (Table 2 and Figure 7). The share of total population in the focus area is much lower for South America (11 percent) compared to the more densely populated regions of Mainland Asia (42 percent), Insular Southeast Asia (21 percent) and Sub-Saharan Africa (20 percent). The large discrepancy in area versus population share for South America is primarily because a large portion of the focus area falls in the sparsely inhabitated tropical forests of Brazil which alone accounts for 28 percent of the total focus area (see Table 3). The warm humid tropics follow this same pattern with South America and Sub-Saharan Africa containing most of the area (51 and 25 percent, respectively) but Insular Southeast Asia having a majority of the population (41 percent) followed by Sub-Saharan Africa with approximately 22 percent. The warm sub-humid tropics are equally as skewed with most of the area in Sub-Saharan Africa or South America (43 and 35 percent respectively) but most of the population living in Mainland Asia (56-58 percent). Even at a highly aggregated regional level, these statistics highlight the need to look at both the area and populations affected by policy decisions and conservation measures. Table 3 shows all countries with five percent or greater area within the focus region. As noted, Brazil accounts for 28 percent of the focus area with the next largest share being Indonesia with 7 percent. 7 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Table 2: Focus Area - Area and Population by Sub-region Total Focus Area Mesoamerica & Caribbean South America Sub-Saharan Africa Mainland Asia Insular Southeast Asia Other (sq km) 867,212 10,511,001 7,915,363 2,261,473 2,319,902 77,751 23,952,702 Warm Humid Tropics Total Population Area Population GPW/LandS can (per (Average) (per GPW) LandScan) (000 people) (sq km) (000 people) 59,783 412,171 23,228 24,176 122,736 6,712,666 49,178 53,065 228,396 3,216,773 93,632 112,068 469,319 560,195 88,076 90,863 233,366 2,200,869 179,762 195,090 5,359 31,420 1,923 1,868 1,118,960 13,134,094 435,799 477,130 Warm Sub-humid Tropics Area Population (sq km) 455,041 3,798,335 4,698,590 1,701,278 119,033 46,331 10,818,608 (per (per GPW) LandScan) (000 people) 34,216 37,947 66,902 76,327 116,977 134,115 373,685 386,013 40,730 51,149 3,292 3,637 635,802 689,190 Share of tropics by region Total Focus Area Mesoamerica & Caribbean South America Sub-Saharan Africa Mainland Asia Insular Southeast Asia Other 3.6 43.9 33.0 9.4 9.7 0.3 100.0 Total Population GPW/LandS can (Average) 5.3 11.0 20.4 41.9 20.9 0.5 100.0 Warm Humid Tropics Area Population 3.1 51.1 24.5 4.3 16.8 0.2 100.0 (per (per GPW) LandScan) (percent by region) 5.3 5.1 11.3 11.1 21.5 23.5 20.2 19.0 41.2 40.9 0.4 0.4 100.0 100.0 Warm Sub-humid Tropics Area Population (per GPW) 4.2 35.1 43.4 15.7 1.1 0.4 100.0 (per LandScan) 5.4 10.5 18.4 58.8 6.4 0.5 100.0 * Note: The population estimates by region are given for both GPW and LandScan data. The difference in the estimates (at this level of aggregation) are minimal (0-2 percent) thus instilling a level of confidence in the use of either data set for regional or possibly sub-regional analysis. Further analyses at a more disaggregated level will more than likely increase the differences but at the pan-tropic level either dataset is appropriate for analysis. 8 5.5 11.1 19.5 56.0 7.4 0.5 100.0 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Table 3: Countries with 5% or greater area within the focus region Focus Area Total Area (000 sq km) Total Population Area (000 people) (000 sq km) Share of country (percent) Share of focus region (percent) Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Bahamas, The Belize Costa Rica Cuba Dominican Republic El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Mexico Nicaragua Panama Puerto Rico 12.9 22.2 51.6 110.4 48.4 20.7 109.5 27.2 112.9 1,962.9 129.0 74.7 9.1 272.2 207.6 3,319.4 11,102.3 7,760.0 5,752.5 10,321.3 7,044.9 5,367.1 92,380.9 4,275.1 2,562.0 3,647.9 12.9 22.2 43.7 110.4 41.5 20.7 75.1 27.2 97.2 362.9 125.6 71.0 9.1 100.0 100.0 84.6 100.0 85.7 100.0 68.6 100.0 86.1 18.5 97.3 95.0 100.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 South America Bolivia Brazil Colombia Ecuador French Guiana Guyana Paraguay Peru Suriname Venezuela 1,090.4 8,507.1 1,142.0 256.9 83.8 211.2 400.1 1,296.9 145.5 916.6 7,648.3 151,525.4 34,414.6 10,541.8 130.2 754.9 4,773.5 24,496.4 428.0 19,857.9 559.9 7064.1 937.7 116.8 83.8 201.9 121.8 637.3 145.5 814.4 51.4 83.0 82.1 45.5 100.0 95.6 30.4 49.1 100.0 88.9 2.2 28.1 3.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.5 2.5 0.6 3.2 Sub-Saharan Africa Angola Benin Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Central African Republic Congo Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau Ivory Coast Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mozambique Nigeria Senegal Sierra Leone Sudan Swaziland Tanzania, United Republic of Togo Uganda Zaire Zambia 1,252.4 116.5 273.7 27.3 466.3 621.5 345.4 27.1 1,132.3 261.7 240.0 246.1 33.6 322.2 96.3 594.9 119.0 788.6 912.0 196.9 72.5 2,490.4 17.2 945.0 57.3 243.0 2,337.0 754.8 11,527.3 5,175.4 10,164.7 6,011.0 13,218.5 3,149.5 2,318.3 386.4 53,143.0 1,561.2 16,698.1 62,420.1 1,085.8 13,498.9 2,902.4 13,046.7 10,660.5 16,604.7 97,228.8 8,116.6 4,551.7 27,713.4 842.8 28,386.3 4,048.4 18,144.4 41,025.9 8,778.7 640.1 75.6 28.0 6.1 407.2 597.1 345.4 27.1 113.2 261.7 221.8 243.0 12.6 322.2 96.3 207.6 21.4 291.0 465.4 12.5 72.5 472.4 2.5 548.3 54.3 165.6 2246.2 205.3 51.1 64.9 10.2 22.2 87.3 96.1 100.0 100.0 10.0 100.0 92.4 98.7 37.5 100.0 100.0 34.9 17.9 36.9 51.0 6.3 100.0 19.0 14.3 58.0 94.7 68.1 96.1 27.2 2.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6 2.4 1.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.0 2.2 0.2 0.7 8.9 0.8 Mainland Asia Bangladesh Brunei Cambodia India Laos Myanmar (Burma) Sri Lanka Taiwan Thailand Vietnam 138.5 5.8 182.6 3,089.3 230.6 669.8 66.6 36.3 515.1 327.1 120,732.2 281.6 9,129.6 894,608.7 4,722.8 43,099.6 18,321.9 21,465.9 57,323.8 71,215.2 124.1 5.8 182.6 409.8 230.6 515.9 35.2 3.3 515.1 279.1 89.6 100.0 100.0 13.3 100.0 77.0 52.9 9.1 100.0 85.3 0.5 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.9 2.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 1.1 1859.3 330.3 91.9 98.7 97.3 100.0 1.7 1.2 7.4 1.3 Insular Southeast Asia Indonesia Malaysia Papua New Guinea Philippines Other Fiji New Caledonia Solomon Islands Vanuatu 1,910.8 330.3 466.2 298.1 189,331.2 19,626.4 4,039.0 428.3 65,981.1 294.3 19.4 19.1 27.7 12.5 755.0 178.0 366.0 165.0 9 19.4 19.1 27.7 12.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Data sources: Country boundaries – ESRI 1999. Regional boundaries – derived from the country boundaries. Population 1995: Global Population of the World (GPW) CIESIN 2000. Population 2000: LandScan Population Project (ORNL 2000). 10 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Section 2 Characterization of the Pantropic Focus Area 11 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis What is the distribution of land cover within the Focus Area? An intersection of land cover data and the ecologically defined Focus Area by region highlighted that, as expected, the majority of the Focus Area is classified as forest (51 percent) particularly in the humid regions (69 percent) with substantially less forest cover in the sub-humid regions (29 percent). The next largest shares are in the grassland and agriculture/other mosaic classes with 19 and 15 percent, respectively (see Table 4). As shown in Figure 8, the sub-humid areas of each sub-region have significantly higher shares of mosaic classes than the humid. This is particularly true in South America where 51 percent of the subhumid region is classified as agricultural mosaics compared to 12 percent for the sub-humid areas. In Asia there was not a significant difference between the humid and subhumid regions with the mosaics comprising around 20-25 percent of each for Mainland Asia and Insular Southeast Asia. The land cover data used for this analysis was the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD 2000). This classification is based on an interpretation of the 30 arc second (approximately 1km) resolution advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery consolidated into monthly global composites for the period April 1992 to March 1993. Scientists at USGS Eros Data Center (EDC) and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln identified approximately 200 Seasonal Land Cover Regions (SLCRs) per continent by identifying areas that demonstrated similar landcover associations, physiographic characteristics, distinctive patterns of biomass production, such as the onset, peak, and duration of greenness (GLCCD 1998; Loveland et al. 2000). This interpretation captures both spatial and seasonal variations in vegetation cover over the observation period. The most frequently used land cover map is the IGBP Land Cover classification map which is an aggregation of the 961 SLCR classes into 17 land cover classes (IGBP 1998). For the BNPP/ASB pantropic analysis we hoped to gain an understanding of where agriculture is currently taking place but more importantly where are the areas of mixed forest/agricultural use and the margin areas between agricultural and forest lands. The IGBP classification is less than ideal for these purposes since only 2 of the 17 classes explicitly recognize agriculture, the ‘Cropland’ class in which more than 60 percent of the area is interpreted as containing cropland, and cropland/natural vegetation mosaic areas that contain 40-60 percent cropland. Fortunately the SLCR classification system gave some scope for refining the data interpretation in order to explicitly recognize occurrences of agriculture that occupy less than a dominant share (60 percent) of a SLCR class. This process was first used, as part of the Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems (PAGE) Agroecosystems study, to define the global extent of agriculture (Wood et al. 2001) and was further refined for this study to better isolate the agriculture/forest mosaics from the other mosaic classes. 12 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Table 4: Global Land Cover - the Warm Tropics Total Area Cropland Pasture Cropland / Pasture mosaic Agriculture / Forest mosaic Agriculture / Other Mosaic Forest Grassland Other Share Cropland Pasture Cropland / Pasture mosaic Ag / Forest mosaic Ag / Other Mosaic Forest Grassland Other 1,558 14 185 1,771 3,490 11,901 4,385 96 23,400 Humid (000 sq km) 612 5 32 1,140 689 8,833 1,363 52 12,727 6.7% 0.1% 0.8% 7.6% 14.9% 50.9% 18.7% 0.4% 100.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.3% 9.0% 5.4% 69.4% 10.7% 0.4% 100.0% Subhumid 946 9 153 631 2,801 3,068 3,022 44 10,673 8.9% 0.1% 1.4% 5.9% 26.2% 28.7% 28.3% 0.4% 100.0% Figure 8 Land Cover for the Warm Tropics by Region 100% 90% 80% 70% Other Grassland 60% Forest 50% Ag / Other Mosaic 40% Ag / Forest mosaic Cropland / Pasture mosaic 30% Pasture Cropland 20% 10% 13 hu m id su bhu m id SSA hu m id su bhu m id hu m id SA hu m id hu m id su bhu m id CAC su b- hu m id su bhu m id 0% Mainland Asia Insuler SE Asia BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis How is the focus area defined based on hydrologically-relevant units? What share of the area and population of the tropics falls within such units? The second stratification approach was based on hydrology. One of the goals of this analysis was to gain an understanding of the effects that conservation efforts would have on hydrological function and also to determine how many people would be affected by these policy decisions. The hydrological stratification was based on the basins from the Hydro1k Elevation Derivative Database (USGS EDC 2001) and an indicator of terrain type based on roughness derived by A. Nelson (2001) using the methodology from Meybeck et al. (2001). The Hydro1k basins were overlaid with the ecologically defined Focus Area. Any basin that had any portion within the boundaries of the Focus Area was included in the analyses (see Figure 10). These drainage basins were defined by USGS using the concepts first described by Otto Pfafstetter (Pfafstetter 1989) (Verdin 2001). The system is based on the topography of areas drained on the Earth’s surface and the typology of the resulting hydrographic network. The basins and interbasins are identified by beginning at the mouth of a river and working upstream to determine, using a DEM, the area that is drained by that river. Along the way, it is important to differentiate between the main stems and the tributaries. For the continental basin delineation the four largest tributaries are identified according to the criterion of area drained. These are assigned values 2, 4, 6 and 8 and the interbasins are assigned the odd numbers, with the remaining area receiving a value of 0, thus each continent is comprised of 10 basins (values 0-9: Pfafstetter coding) (Verdin 2001: p.1-3). From a hydrological perspective we considered it useful to divide basins into their “upper” and “lower” parts. Upper watershed areas are those that occupy the highest elevation ranges, relative to the elevation of the watershed outflow point, and are normally associated with more steeply sloping terrain. Lower watersheds, on the other hand, are those areas whose elevation is low relative to the watershed outflow, and where gradients tend to be gentler. The characterization is useful in distinguishing between areas that tend to erode soil and areas where sedimentation takes place. In upland areas, overland flow energies are high and significantly greater potential for soil erosion exists. In lowland areas, by contrast, overland flow energies are low and erosion is significantly less important. Furthermore, since river channel gradients are low, flow velocities decline and water-borne sediment from upper watershed is often deposited. Though more controversial, there is also evidence that flood frequency and intensity are relative higher in upland areas because of the decreased “time of concentration” of flow from the point of incidence of rainfall to the river channel. Thus, watersheds with higher shares of “upper” watershed terrain will be more erosive and likely more prone to “flash-flooding”. The upper-lower classification was performed using the terrain typology developed by Meybeck et al (2001), and applied globally for the purposes of the study by Nelson (2001). The global terrain typology identified nine terrain types, based on roughness, ranging from plains to high mountains. These terrain types were aggregated into two classes: lower terrains (all plains, lowlands and low/middle plateaus); and upper terrains (all mountains, and high plateaus) (see Figure 11). 14 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis The basins and terrains were combined to create a composite indicator of basin and roughness as shown in Figure 12. Table 5 shows the area and population shares for each region by basin and terrain type1. The first thing to notice is how much more land area this stratification approach encompasses in comparison to the first stratification. This should be an important determinant when choosing which stratification variables are best suited for the pantropic analysis in phase II. The basins approach encompasses almost of half of the worlds land surface (excluding Antartica) and includes over twothirds of the worlds population. This is most likely too broad an area for the overall analysis but it does help determine the broader impact, in terms of area and numbers of people, of policies and changes in land management within the Focus Area particularly from a hydrological perspective. Figure 13 depicts the share of total basin area by terrain type for the 24 basins within the BNPP/ASB Focus Area. The basins range from those, such as the mouth of the Amazon (SA5), with no area in upper terrains to those, such as the basins encompassing the Andes down to the west coast of Central and South America (MAC9 & SA1), with almost 60 percent of the basin area falling in the upper terrain. As expected, catchments become more rugged, erosive, and prone to flash flooding towards the righthand side of this figure. 1 The Hydro1k Database available on the web did not include the names of the basins thus the table only identifies the basin number. These numbers correspond to the numbers present on the map in Figure 11. We have submitted a request to USGS EDC for the names. 15 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Table 5 TROPICAL BASINS (by Region) Total Area (000 sq km) Share in… Upper Lower terrain terrain (percent) Total Population (000 people) Share in… Upper Lower terrain terrain (percent) Mesoamerica & the Caribbean (MAC) 7 1,472 9 4,322 6.8 56.8 93.2 43.2 114,627 172,650 5.2 52.7 94.8 47.3 South America (SA) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1,164 938 568 5,852 139 775 2,795 2,707 1,916 58.7 30.7 5.8 11.7 0.0 14.3 22.1 18.9 35.7 41.3 69.3 94.2 88.3 100.0 85.7 77.9 81.1 64.3 63,793 10,727 1,576 22,352 453 4,375 94,837 64,182 29,724 3582.2 541.5 5.3 201.8 0.0 130.4 842.5 854.3 372.3 1899.0 601.9 272.0 180.2 324.9 434.2 2551.0 1516.7 1179.3 Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2,436 3,068 3,794 1,383 3,759 3,679 712 2,110 2,059 12.8 27.0 42.8 33.1 35.5 23.2 19.0 9.4 3.4 87.2 73.0 57.2 66.9 64.5 76.8 81.0 90.6 96.6 29,186 127,176 114,292 26,036 60,181 56,844 26,505 65,754 90,964 8.4 44.2 56.4 49.8 49.9 36.8 19.1 9.0 2.5 91.6 55.8 43.6 50.2 50.1 63.2 80.9 91.0 97.5 Mainland Asia (MA) 1 9 4,683 7,753 33.9 48.1 66.1 51.9 1,180,571 1,503,043 11.7 23.0 88.3 77.0 Insular SE Asia (ISA) 9 2,680 26.8 73.2 229,142 21.7 78.3 Total 60,765 4,088,989 16 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Figure 13 Area share of Basins by Upper and Lower Terrain type 100.0 90.0 80.0 (percent area) 70.0 60.0 LOWER 50.0 UPPER 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 3 AC 7 SS A8 SA 4 SS A0 SA 6 SA 8 SS A7 SA 7 SS A6 IS A9 SS A2 SA 2 SS A4 M A1 SS A5 SA 9 SS A3 M A9 M AC 9 SA 1 SA M SA 5 SS A9 0.0 Tropical Basins Data sources: Basins: Hydro1k Elevation Derivative Database (USGS EDC 2001). Terrain: Roughness Indicator at a resolution of 0.04167 dd (Nelson 2001) based on 30 arc second resolution elevation data. Elevation: GTOPO30: Global 30 Arc Second Elevation Data Set (USGS 1998). 17 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis What is the coincidence of the Focus Area and Tropical Forest Biomes? To what extent have these forests been converted? The third stratification was based on biodiversity. The data used was the World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF) Terrestrial Ecoregions database (WWF-US 2001a). The WWF Ecoregions database was designed with conservation of ecoregion function as the primary goal. Ecoregions are defined as ‘a relatively large area of land or water that contains a geographically distinct assemblage of natural communities …. [which] share a large majority of their species, dynamics, and environmental conditions (WWF-US 2001a).’ The ecoregions database is a hierarchical database consisting of three layers: Realms, Biomes and Ecoregions. The realms are continental-scale biogeographic regions that contain distinct groups of plants and animals. They are differentiated according to geologic and climatic history (see Figure 14). The Biomes are broad groupings of ecoregions that have similar: climatic regimes vegetation structure spatial patterns of biodiversity minimum requirements and thresholds for maintaining certain biodiversity features sensitivities to human disturbance. (WWF-US 2001a). The terrestrial biomes that have any portion falling within the Focus Area are shown in Figure 15 that also shows the tropical Realms. Including all tropical biomes broadens the focus area extensively to an area that cover 34 percent of the earth’s land surface (excluding Antartica). For the purposes of this study it is more appropriate to focus on the terrestrial forest biomes as shown in Figure 16. It should be noted that this stratification alters the extent of the focus area significantly particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa which has a large share of tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands. It also decreases the total area of interest to 15.3 million square kilometers with a population of approximately 850 million people (from approximately 24 million square kilometers and 1.1 billion people within the Focus Area) (see Table 6). We identified the proportional area of trees found within the forest biomes as an indicator of the extent of conversion. This proxy was calculated using the Percent Tree Cover database. These data, interpreted by scientists at the University of Maryland, are based on the same detailed satellite data that underpins the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database used here to describe land cover. The satellite data was used to derive additional vegetation characteristics including woody vegetation, defined as mature vegetation whose approximate height is greater than 5 meters (DeFries et al. 2000). The resulting map shows the percent tree cover (ranging from 0 – 80 percent) for each 1km resolution mapping unit (see Figure 17). 18 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Figure 18 shows the extent of conversion by region for the two tropical forest biomes. Mainland Asia shows more conversion in both biomes than any other region and SubSaharan Africa shows a high level of conversion in the drier forest biome. Globally, all of the regions show higher levels of conversion in the dry broadleaf forests than in the moist broadleaf forest. Data used: WWF Terrestrial Ecoregions (WWF-US 2001a). UMD Percent Tree Cover Database (DeFries et al. 2000). Figure 14: Biogeographical Realms 19 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Table 6: Area and Population by Terrestrial Forest Biome Area (square kilometers) Central America & the Caribbean Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest Tropical Forest Biomes Subtotal Other habitat Total 338,771 166,011 504,782 16,892 166,392 183,284 355,663 332,403 688,066 56,508 122,638 179,146 412,171 455,041 867,212 Insular Southeast Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 2,121,927 43,957 2,165,884 22,617 54,518 77,135 2,144,544 98,475 2,243,019 56,325 20,558 76,883 2,200,869 119,033 2,319,902 Mainland Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 410,446 730,888 1,141,334 111,863 928,606 1,040,469 522,309 1,659,494 2,181,803 37,886 41,784 79,670 560,195 1,701,278 2,261,473 South America Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 6,045,032 1,097,120 7,142,152 58,887 234,810 293,697 6,103,919 1,331,930 7,435,849 608,747 2,466,405 3,075,152 6,712,666 3,798,335 10,511,001 Sub-Saharan Africa Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 2,196,374 430,454 2,626,828 13,507 71,322 84,829 2,209,881 501,776 2,711,657 1,006,892 4,196,814 5,203,706 3,216,773 4,698,590 7,915,363 11,112,550 2,468,430 13,580,980 223,766 1,455,648 1,679,414 11,336,316 3,924,078 15,260,394 1,766,358 6,848,199 8,614,557 13,102,674 10,772,277 23,874,951 Total Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total Share by Biome Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest Tropical Forest Biomes Subtotal Other habitat Total Central America & the Caribbean Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 67.1% 32.9% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 100.0% 51.7% 48.3% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 100.0% 47.5% 52.5% 100.0% Insular Southeast Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 98.0% 2.0% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 100.0% 95.6% 4.4% 100.0% 73.3% 26.7% 100.0% 94.9% 5.1% 100.0% Mainland Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 36.0% 64.0% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 100.0% 24.8% 75.2% 100.0% South America Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 84.6% 15.4% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 100.0% 82.1% 17.9% 100.0% 19.8% 80.2% 100.0% 63.9% 36.1% 100.0% Sub-Saharan Africa Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 83.6% 16.4% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 100.0% 6.7% 36.5% 43.2% 19.3% 80.7% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 100.0% 81.8% 18.2% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 100.0% 74.3% 25.7% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 100.0% 54.9% 45.1% 100.0% Total Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 20 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Share by ecological zone Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Pantropic Analysis Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest Tropical Forest Biomes Subtotal Other habitat Total Central America & the Caribbean Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 82.2% 36.5% 58.2% 4.1% 36.6% 21.1% 86.3% 73.0% 79.3% 13.7% 27.0% 20.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Insular Southeast Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 96.4% 36.9% 93.4% 1.0% 45.8% 3.3% 97.4% 82.7% 96.7% 2.6% 17.3% 3.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Mainland Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 73.3% 43.0% 50.5% 20.0% 54.6% 46.0% 93.2% 97.5% 96.5% 6.8% 2.5% 3.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% South America Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 90.1% 28.9% 67.9% 0.9% 6.2% 2.8% 90.9% 35.1% 70.7% 9.1% 64.9% 29.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Sub-Saharan Africa Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 90.1% 28.9% 67.9% 0.9% 6.2% 2.8% 90.9% 35.1% 70.7% 9.1% 64.9% 29.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 84.8% 22.9% 56.9% 1.7% 13.5% 7.0% 86.5% 36.4% 63.9% 13.5% 63.6% 36.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total Population (000 people) Central America & the Caribbean Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest Tropical Forest Biomes Subtotal Other habitat Total 15,921 11,412 27,333 3,111 11,263 14,374 19,033 22,675 41,707 4,195 11,541 15,736 23,228 34,216 57,444 Insular Southeast Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 170,796 23,873 194,669 5,139 15,490 20,629 175,935 39,363 215,299 3,827 1,367 5,194 179,762 40,730 220,492 Mainland Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 53,381 103,511 156,892 26,176 258,793 284,970 79,557 362,305 441,862 8,519 11,380 19,899 88,076 373,685 461,761 South America Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 37,827 26,498 64,325 2,707 3,631 6,338 40,534 30,129 70,663 8,643 36,773 45,417 49,178 66,902 116,080 Sub-Saharan Africa Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 59,869 26,290 86,159 213 782 995 60,082 27,072 87,154 33,549 89,905 123,454 93,632 116,977 210,609 337,795 191,585 529,379 37,348 289,959 327,307 375,142 481,544 856,686 58,734 150,966 209,700 433,876 632,510 1,066,386 Total Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 21 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Population share by Biome Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Pantropic Analysis Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest Tropical Forest Biomes Subtotal Other habitat Total Central America & the Caribbean Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 58.2% 41.8% 100.0% 21.6% 78.4% 100.0% 45.6% 54.4% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 100.0% Insular Southeast Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 87.7% 12.3% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 100.0% 81.7% 18.3% 100.0% 73.7% 26.3% 100.0% 81.5% 18.5% 100.0% Mainland Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 34.0% 66.0% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 100.0% 42.8% 57.2% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 100.0% South America Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 58.8% 41.2% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 100.0% 57.4% 42.6% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 100.0% Sub-Saharan Africa Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 69.5% 30.5% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 100.0% 38.3% 123.3% 161.6% 27.2% 72.8% 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 100.0% 63.8% 36.2% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 100.0% 40.7% 59.3% 100.0% Total Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total Population share by ecological zone Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest Tropical Forest Biomes Subtotal Other habitat Total Central America & the Caribbean Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 68.5% 33.4% 47.6% 13.4% 32.9% 25.0% 81.9% 66.3% 72.6% 18.1% 33.7% 27.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Insular Southeast Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 95.0% 58.6% 88.3% 2.9% 38.0% 9.4% 97.9% 96.6% 97.6% 2.1% 3.4% 2.4% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Mainland Asia Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 60.6% 27.7% 34.0% 29.7% 69.3% 61.7% 90.3% 97.0% 95.7% 9.7% 3.0% 4.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% South America Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 76.9% 39.6% 55.4% 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% 82.4% 45.0% 60.9% 17.6% 55.0% 39.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Sub-Saharan Africa Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 76.9% 39.6% 55.4% 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% 82.4% 45.0% 60.9% 17.6% 55.0% 39.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 77.9% 30.3% 49.6% 8.6% 45.8% 30.7% 86.5% 76.1% 80.3% 13.5% 23.9% 19.7% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Total Warm humid tropics Warm subhumid tropics Sub-total 22 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Can we improve our representation of the physiographic characteristics of the Focus Area? What is the distribution of physiographic characteristics within the tropical forest biomes? Table 7 shows the percent area for each biome by region by terrain type. On average 7582 percent of the forest biomes are in lower terrains (plains, lowlands & low/mid plateaus with 18-25 percent in upper terrains (mountains and high plateaus). The forest areas of South America exhibit the most area in lower terrains for both forest types whereas the drier forest areas of Mesoamerica have a much larger percentage classified as upper terrains. Table 7: Share of Terrestrial Forest Biomes in Upper and Lower Terrains Lower Upper Mesoamerica & the Caribbean Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest 78.3 56.0 21.7 44.0 South America Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest 82.3 76.0 17.7 24.0 Sub-Saharan Africa Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest 66.4 77.4 33.6 22.6 Mainland Asia Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest 64.5 85.9 35.5 14.1 Insular Southeast Asia Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest 72.8 66.1 27.2 33.9 Average Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forest 75.5 82.5 24.5 17.5 23 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis How well do the WWF Ecoregion boundaries correspond with the boundaries of the Focus Area? The third level in the hierarchy of the WWF Terrestrial Ecoregions database is the ecoregions. The database contains over 800 ecoregions that form a contiguous coverage of the world. Each ecoregion is identified by name and a number of conservation and biodiversity characteristics including: Biological Distinctiveness Index (BDI) which is a biogeographic scaledependent assessment of the biological importance of ecoregions Current conservation status Future status – based on modifying the current status based on future threat Priority status for conservation action based on an integration of biological distinctiveness with future status Global status – a 30 year prediction of future conservation status Global 200 region – the Global 200 ecoregion of which this ecoregion is a part This database provides general data on the biological importance of these ecoregions with a particular focus on conservation. WWF-US did extensive research based on the valuation, count and location of species in order to define the boundaries of the ecoregions so that they roughly coincide with the area over which key ecological processes take place (WWF-US 2001a). With this wealth of data related to biodiversity and conservation as well as the possibility of working with WWF-US in the future to better understand the biodiversity criteria that went into defining these ecoregions a stratification approach based on ecoregions may be more appropriate for the BNPP/ASB study and is certainly something worth exploring in Phase II. Figures 19-22 illustrate how the ecoregions correspond to the climate defined Focus Area. 24 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Section 3 Identifying Critical Areas 25 Pantropic Analysis BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis What urban populations might be at risk from significantly altered hydrological function as a consequence of upstream land use change? As mentioned before the use of watersheds or basins as a stratifier is important since it helps us understand the externalities and broader-reaching impacts of policy and land management decisions. By combining available data on urban populations (World Bank 2001) with the Hydro1k watershed data (USGS EDC 2001) we looked at the urban populations that might be at risk from changes in hydrological function as a consequence of upstream land use change. The urban population database contains location and estimated population for approximately 3,200 urban settlements around the world. We used these data to determine 1) the urban population by watershed and 2) how many large cities are located within each watershed (see Tables 8 & 9). Table 8: Urban Populations in Tropical Watersheds Tropical Watersheds Region Mesoamerica & Caribbean South America SubSaharan Africa Mainland Asia Insular Southeast Asia Total Number Area (000 sq km) Tropical Watersheds with Urban Populations Number Share of total Area Urban Population within Tropical Watersheds Total (000 people) Share of global total 5 62 59 12 9 1,383 12,751 10,302 3,159 2,154 5 28 28 12 5 100.0% 73.8% 73.7% 100.0% 92.6% 26,661 40,232 52,934 95,176 64,353 9.5% 14.4% 18.9% 34.1% 23.0% 147 29,750 78 79.1% 279,355 100.0% The majority of the tropical urban populations reside in Mainland Asia where 100 percent of the tropical watersheds contain at least one urban center (population greater than 100,000). Meso and South America have the fewest urban centers with only 24 percent of the total urban population in the tropics residing in these regions combined. In order to define ‘Critical watersheds’ we looked at the watersheds that had a very high urban population to total area ratio. These were defined as ‘critical’ following the assumption that watersheds that were more densely populated with urban areas had greater potential for negative impacts on the flood regime. Figures 23-25 show these plots and highlight the ‘critical’ watersheds on a regional basis. In Latin America the critical watersheds are in the northern coasts of Colombia and Venezuala and the northeast of Venezuala at the mouth of the Orinoco. In Africa, these critical areas are more spread out covering areas in Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ghana. Not surprisingly, the critical areas in Asia are in the densely populated coastal areas of southern and eastern India and Bangladesh. 26 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity South America 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 84 87 88 89 Total Total Urban Population (000 people) 221.5 474.9 0.0 1,606.8 1,199.6 8,576.8 566.6 0.0 282.4 3,806.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 251.3 0.0 219.6 0.0 258.3 0.0 0.0 176.6 0.0 0.0 233.5 1,127.0 147.4 695.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 120.9 0.0 450.6 96.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,894.2 984.9 3,062.7 3,841.0 827.2 406.8 283.5 7,873.8 0.0 0.0 545.6 40,231.7 Number of cities with populations: 100,000 500,000 2 3 na 0 6 16 0 na 1 5 na na na na na na na na na 1 na 1 na 1 na na 1 na na 1 0 1 3 na na na na na na na na na na 1 na 2 0 na na na na 2 2 6 9 4 2 2 21 na na 2 95 500,000 - 1,000,000 1,000,000 5,000,000 > 5,000,000 0 0 na 2 0 0 1 na 0 2 na na na na na na na na na 0 na 0 na 0 na na 0 na na 0 0 0 0 na na na na na na na na na na 0 na 0 0 na na na na 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 na na 0 10 0 0 na 0 0 2 0 na 0 1 na na na na na na na na na 0 na 0 na 0 na na 0 na na 0 1 0 0 na na na na na na na na na na 0 na 0 0 na na na na 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 na na 0 7 0 0 na 0 0 0 0 na 0 0 na na na na na na na na na 0 na 0 na 0 na na 0 na na 0 0 0 0 na na na na na na na na na na 0 na 0 0 na na na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na 0 0 Sub-Saharan Africa 4 6 24 26 27 28 29 30 37 38 39 41 42 43 44 46 48 49 51 52 53 54 55 57 58 59 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 81 82 83 85 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 Total Pantropic Analysis Total Urban Population (000 people) Number of cities with populations: 100,000 500,000 134.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2,310.7 406.8 0.0 205.1 154.4 0.0 370.6 0.0 0.0 355.3 0.0 0.0 549.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5,757.6 1,423.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.9 0.0 209.2 3,538.6 514.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,635.7 152.2 1,737.8 426.3 957.8 502.5 163.2 1,977.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19,537.2 214.8 2,821.5 0.0 2,647.6 825.2 2,738.5 0.0 52,933.6 1 na na na na na 3 1 na 1 1 na 1 na na 2 na na 0 na na na na na na na 2 2 na na na 0 na 1 3 0 na na na 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 2 na na na na 12 1 2 na 0 3 2 na 47 27 500,000 - 1,000,000 1,000,000 5,000,000 > 5,000,000 0 na na na na na 2 0 na 0 0 na 0 na na 0 na na 1 na na na na na na na 0 1 na na na 1 na 0 2 1 na na na 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 na na na na 4 0 1 na 0 0 1 na 18 0 na na na na na 0 0 na 0 0 na 0 na na 0 na na 0 na na na na na na na 2 0 na na na 0 na 0 1 0 na na na 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 na na na na 2 0 1 na 1 0 1 na 10 0 na na na na na 0 0 na 0 0 na 0 na na 0 na na 0 na na na na na na na 0 0 na na na 0 na 0 0 0 na na na 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 na na na na 1 0 0 na 0 0 0 na 1 Total Urban Population (000 people) Central America 19 75 93 94 95 Total Insular Southeast Asia 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Total Mainland Asia 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 95 96 97 98 99 Total Number of cities with populations: 100,000 500,000 500,000 - 1,000,000 > 1,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 2.5 12,960.3 2,013.0 951.3 10,733.7 26,660.7 0 21 5 3 21 50 0 2 1 0 5 8 0 4 0 0 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 30,859.8 0.0 25,901.6 536.1 2,153.5 0.0 4,902.2 0.0 0.0 64,353.2 27 na 51 0 5 na 9 na na 92 7 na 3 1 0 na 2 na na 13 6 na 2 0 1 na 1 na na 10 1 na 1 0 0 na 0 na na 2 5,189.5 851.6 122.9 1,321.9 23,508.7 449.3 29,129.4 11,730.5 3,021.6 16,937.8 818.7 2,094.5 95,176.3 6 5 1 7 35 1 51 15 7 12 1 3 144 0 0 0 0 2 0 8 0 2 0 1 0 13 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 2 0 3 0 1 12 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Where, within the Focus Area, are the most important areas of biological diversity? WWF has identified over 200 ecoregions that are ‘unique expressions of biological diversity, …, ecological processes, and evolutionary phenomena (WWF-US 2001b).’ These Global 200 ecoregions are a collection of the Earth’s most outstanding and diverse areas where loss of biological wealth will be most severely felt, and where conservation efforts must be the strongest (WWF-US 2001b). The WWF Terrestrial Ecoregions database includes information on the Global 200 ecoregions related to their conservation status as a Global 200 region as well as the conservation information included for all of the ecoregions (see question How well do the WWF Ecoregion boundaries correspond with the boundaries of the Focus Area? for a complete list). We intersected the Focus Area with the ecoregions in the Global 200 to determine the share of the BNPP/ASB mandate area that is considered of biological importance according to WWF (see Figure 26 and Table 10). Table 10 Global 200 ecoregions within the Focus Area Global 200* Share of Share of Total Focus Global 200* Area within focus area in Global 200* Area Total Area focus region Global 200* in focus area (sq km) (sq km) (sq km) Central America & Caribbean867,212 South America 10,511,001 Sub-Saharan Africa 7,915,363 Mainland Asia 2,261,473 Insular SE Asia 2,319,902 Other 77,751 Total 23,952,702 315,483 6,686,896 2,797,917 3,120,785 1,677,802 37,199 89,294 5,313,585 2,371,069 1,352,313 1,616,155 23,700 10.3% 50.6% 30.0% 59.8% 69.7% 30.5% 28.3% 79.5% 84.7% 43.3% 96.3% 63.7% 14,636,082 10,766,116 44.9% 73.6% The map and table include only those Global 200 ecoregions that had at least part of their area within the Focus Area2. 45 percent of the Focus Area falls within a Global 200 * ecoregion includes only those Global ecoregions that coincide with the focus region highlighting that200 much of the Focus Area is considered of biological importance. The area share of the Global 200 ecoregions that coincides with the Focus Area is 74 percent indicating that a large percentage of the tropical areas that are considered to be strong areas for conservation fall within the BNPP/ASB mandate area. 2 96 percent of the Global 200 terrestrial ecoregions are included in this ‘tropical’ subset 28 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis What practical measures of biodiversity ‘value’ are available for these critical areas? We discovered when doing the overlay of the Global 200 ecoregions with the Focus Area that all of the ASB clusters of sites were located within a Global 200 ecoregion3. But, at this scale, can we learn anything about the biodiversity of the ASB sites from looking at characteristics of the Global 200 ecoregions? Table 11 shows the Global 200 characteristics for each of the clusters of ASB sites. There is little value gained from this except for the implication that the ASB sites are in areas of high conservation value and biological significance but there is potential, through working with the researchers at WWF-US, to gain a better understanding of what the biodiversity issues are for each of these sites and to learn more about the spatial patterns of biodiversity within these specific ecoregions, how they correspond to these clusters of sites and thus what conservation efforts are most important at the site level. Table 11 ASB Sites - Biodiversity Status BDI* Current Status Threat Future Status Priority Status Philippines moist forests Highest Critical - Critical Highest Yurimaguas_Peru Napo moist forests Highest - - Highest Peru 08 S: 74-75 E Southwestern Amazonian moist forests Highest - - Relatively Intact Indonesia 01 S: 101-102 E Sumatran Islands lowland and montane forests Highest Endangered - Critical Highest Indonesia 04 S: 104-105 E Sumatran Islands lowland and montane forests Highest Endangered - Highest Global Status Critical or Endangered Critical or Endangered Relatively Stable or Intact Critical or Endangered Critical or Endangered Brazil 10 S: 61-62 W Southwestern Amazonian moist forests High Medium Vulnerable Brazil 09 S: 66 W Brazil 10 S: 67 W Southwestern Amazonian moist forests Freshwater - Amazon River and Highest Highest Medium Highest Vulnerable Vulnerable Cameroon 03 N: 11 E Congolian Coastal Forests Highest Cameroon 02 S: 11 E Congolian Coastal Forests Highest Cameroon 04 S: 11 E Congolian Coastal Forests Highest Mae_Chaem_Thailand Kayah-Karen/Tenasserim moist forests Highest Clusters of ASB sites Global 200 Ecoregion Mindinao_Phillipines Medium - - Relatively Stable Relatively Stable Relatively Stable Relatively Intact - Critical Relatively Stable Relatively Stable - Medium Vulnerable Highest Vulnerable Medium Vulnerable Highest Vulnerable Medium Vulnerable Relatively Intact Highest Vulnerable Relatively Stable or Intact - Medium *BDI - Biological Distiveness Index 3 Note: all of the ASB clusters of sites are located in the Tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest biome. 29 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Can we identify forest margin areas using existing coarse resolution satellite data? From a conservation perspective many of the areas that are most critical are those that are on the margins between agriculture and forest. These areas are more vulnerable to further degradation due to poorly managed agricultural practices, clear cutting for agricultural expansion, loss of biodiversity due to fragmentation of habitat and damage to the hydrological function. It is often difficult to gain a systematic understanding of where the forest margin areas are, if they form a pattern across space and if they are a logical place to target for conservation or research efforts. The Global Land Cover Characteristics Database was used for this study to determine the land cover within the Focus Area (see question What is the distribution of land cover within the Focus Area?). Using these same data, we identified all areas that fell on the margin of forest and agriculture based on a buffer zone of 1 pixel or 1 square kilometer. Figure 27 shows an example of the resulting ‘margin areas’ map. The brown and dark orange areas are those that fall in the areas adjacent to agricultural activity. This type of analysis can help identify target areas for conservation or improved land management strategies. It can also aid in the identification of patterns of conversion across both narrow and broad areas. 30 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Section 4 Findings and Recommendations 31 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis On the basis of this initial interpretation of the data compiled and harmonized for the Phase I Pantropic Assessment, some useful findings and recommendations have emerged. It is useful to select characterization variables that are hierarchical (e.g., we used a nested basin/watershed typology, and a nested biome/ecoregion typology) to better support truly multi-scale assessments. It appears problematic to define hydrological functions at the pantropic scale. If we can define landscapes in terms of physiography (e.g. roughness factor) and land cover then the measures developed here might also be useful in a landscape context Biomes appear to hold more promise for defining the BNPP/ASB Focus Area, rather solely climate-based, ecologically-defined areas. To test the validity and potential extrapolation power of the type of characterizations done here, we need to test them against sub-regional data and analyses (e.g., in Mesoamerica and Montane Mainland SEA). 32 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Section 5 References 33 Pantropic Analysis BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Center for International Earth Science Information Network. (CIESIN). 2000. Gridded Population of the World (GPW) v2.0. Data available online at: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/gpw/index.html DeFries, R.S., M.C. Hansen, J.R.G. Townshend, A.C. Janetos, and T.R. Loveland. 2000. “A New Global 1-Km Data Set of Percentage Tree Cover Derived from Remote Sensing.” Global Change Biology 6: 247-254. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI). 1996. World Countries 1995. Included in ESRI Data and Maps. Volume 1. CD-ROM. Redlands, CA: ESRI. Country names and disputed territories updated at WRI and IFPRI as of 1999. FAO. 1978-81. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Report of the Agro-Ecological Zones Project. World Soil Resources Report no. 48 vol. 1-4, Rome: FAO. FAO/IIASA. 2000. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Global Agro-ecological Zoning. FAO Land and Water Digital Media Series # 11. CD-ROM version 1.0. Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD), Version 2.0. 2000. Data available online at: http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/glcc.html. IGBP. 1998. International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Data and Information System, IGBP-DIS Global 1-km Land Cover Set DISCover. Loveland, T.R., B.C. Reed, J.F. Brown, D.O. Ohlen, Z. Zhu, L. Yang, and J.W. Merchant. 2000. “Development of a Global Land Cover Characteristics Database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR Data.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 21 (6/7): 1303-1330). Meybeck, M, P. Green, C. Vorosmarty. 2001. “A New Typology for Mountains and Other Relief Classes: An Application to Global Continental Water Resources and Population Distribution”. In Mountain Research and Development. 21(1): 34-45. Nelson, A. 2001. Global Terrain Surface. Derived from GTOPO30 Elevation Data (USGS 1998) using methodology from Meybeck et al. 2001. Unpublished Data. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. (ORNL). 2000. LandScan 2000: Global Population Project. http://www.ornl.gov/gist/projects/LandScan/SIMPLE/smaps.htm. Data available online at: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/plue/gpw/landscan/ 34 BNPP/ASB Functional Value of Biodiversity Pantropic Analysis Pfafstetter, O., 1989, "Classification of hydrographic basins: coding methodology", unpublished manuscript, DNOS, August 18, 1989, Rio de Janeiro; translated by J.P. Verdin, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Brasilia, Brazil, September 5, 1991. USGS EROS Data Center (EDC). 2001. Hydro1k Elevation Derivative Database. Data available online at: http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro/. USGS. 1998. United States Geological Surveys Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center, GTOPO30: Global 30 Arc Second Elevation Data Set. Sioux Falls, SD: USGS EDC. Verdin, K. 2001. A System for Typologically Coding Global Drainage Basins and Stream Networks. Online documentation: http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/hydro/P311.html. Downloaded 8/29/01. Wood, S., K. Sebastian, S.J. Scherr. 2001. Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems: Agroecosystems. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute and World Resources Institute. World Bank. 2001. Urban Settlements. Unpublished Data. World Wildlife Fund (WWF-US). 2001a. Terrestrial Ecoregions Database. WWF-US. Washington, DC. Unpublished Data and readme file). World Wildlife Fund (WWF-US) 2001b. Global 200 information page located at: http://www.worldwildlife.org/global200/spaces.cfm?sectionid=25&newspaperid=20. December 9, 2001. 35