TPT 2/10/01
Suggestions for 3 BNPP issues papers (which could be put out easily and quickly as ASB policybriefs).
Other ideas are most welcome!
People and rainforests do mix: is this a recipe for disaster?
Addresses several of the basic questions we identified in our first meeting:
1) How many people live within the humid tropics -- this is essentially the population for the ‘stratification
level 1’ suggested by Kate (what I call the ASB problem domain).
2) How much of the WWF forest habitat “tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests” (what I call
‘tropical rainforests’) falls within that domain?
3) How many people live within the tropical rainforest habitat? What share is this of the total population in
the humid tropics (1 above)?
4) Perhaps – depending on assessment of the protected areas data -- how much of ‘tropical rainforest’ is
designated as ‘protected’ areas? What share of total protected areas are in the tropical rainforest habitat?
How many people live in those protected areas? What share of population of ASB domain live in those
protected areas? [Obvious extensions, perhaps in Phase II, would be to take a closer look at disaggregated
rainforest habitats and protected areas within subregions of the ASB domain. These extensions depend on
input from others in DC regarding assessment of various approaches to critical biodiversity ‘hotspots’.]
5) What are the dominant soil types within the tropical rainforest habitat? What does that suggest about
sustainability of food production? … of treecrop production?
6) Possibly use Kate’s work on cover change (or fires databases) to look at areas of risk of conversion – but
that also could be an extension for Phase II.
(Answers based on Kate’s work under BNPP Activity 1 on ACZs, forest habitats, soils, protected areas, and
CIESIN population data?)
Forests or trees? Debunking myths about rainforests and watershed functions.
Based on Meine’s review under BNPP Activity 2 – emphasizing what we know about scale of watershed
effects resulting from land cover change -- and related work by Ken C, S Bruijnzeel, et al, possibly
illustrated with ‘fallow’ or other analytical models.
Dangerous waters: coincidence of watershed problems induced by deforestation and
poverty in the tropics. (Am sure someone – Stan? – can come up with a better title than that.)
1) Based on Meine’s work on scale of attenuation of effects of land cover change on specific watershed
functions, which functions (and at what scale) are most threatened by tropical deforestation?
2) Guided by (1), and based on Andy’s work on terrain maps (and what else?), where are the upstream
areas (freshwater sources) in the tropics that would be most vulnerable to degradation of specific watershed
functions if forest cover is /has been lost? Basic question here is what scale is best for this: my guess
would be the subregional categories.
3) What are the ‘downstream’ areas (freshwater sinks) associated with the vulnerable freshwater sources
identified in (2) above?
4) What are the magnitudes of the populations ‘upstream’ (in the vulnerable freshwater sources) vs the
populations ‘downstream’ (in the associated freshwater sinks)?
Based on results from Meine on scaling under Activity 2, Andy’s work on terrain and watersheds spanning
Activities 1 and 4 (at least Central America, possibly MMSEA with Horst), and Kate’s work on Activity
1—with help from Uwe and Stan.