Analysis Summary
Morrison Park Advisors’ analysis of the transaction to acquire Osisko, as proposed by Goldcorp, concludes that it would
have the following impacts to the shareholders of Osisko from a financial point of view.
•
Reduced leverage to Gold
• Osisko shareholders will represent only 7% of Goldcorp after the transaction.
• Osisko’s metal content will go from 100% precious metals to only 78% precious metals and 22% base metals.
•
Reduced metal value per share
• At current commodity prices Osisko has Proven & Probable (P&P) reserves with a gross metal value of $26/share
• The P&P metal value would fall to $24/share pro-forma a transaction with Goldcorp representing 5% dilution to
Osisko shareholders.
• Measured & Indicated (M&I) resources (inclusive of P&P), currently have a gross metal value of $54/share.
• The P&P metal value would fall to $34/share pro-forma a transaction with Goldcorp representing 36% dilution to
Osisko shareholders.
•
Dilutive on an EBITDA basis
• On an attributable EBITDA per share basis (adjusting for debt net of cash), Osisko generated $0.51/share over the 12
months ending September 30, 2013.
• On a pro-forma basis, the transaction would reduce this to $0.48/share equating to 5% dilution for Osisko
shareholders.
• Alternatively, based on annualizing Osisko’s third quarter EBITDA, the company would generate $0.48/share on a
stand-alone basis.
• Pro-forma a Goldcorp transaction, Osisko shareholder’s would effectively be diluted to $0.25/share on an annualized
EBITDA basis reflecting 48% dilution.
MPA Morrison Park Advisors
Page 1 of 6
14/01/2014
TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
Market Statistics
Share Price (Jan 10/14)
Shares Outstanding (1)
Market Capitalization
- Cash + Investments (1)
+ Debt & Convertibles
= Enterprise Value
= Enterprise Value
In-the-money Options:
Amount
Wt Avg Price
Cash from options
In-the-money Warrants:
Amount
Wt Avg Price
Cash from warrants
Goldcorp
Osisko
NewCo
C$
25.29
5.17
25.29
M
812
20,542
1,074
2,590
22,058
20,302
445
2,300
147
329
2,481
2,284
877
22,184
216
2,919
24,886
22,906
C$M
C$M
C$M
C$M
US$M
5.7
4.52
26
M
C$
C$M
-
M
C$
C$M
Top Holders
Goldcorp
Goldcorp
Blackrock
Van Eck
First Eagle
TD Bank
Royal Bank
Osisko (other than included above)
Bank of Nova Scotia
Eurasia
Caise de Depot
Tocqueville
IG Investment
Osisko
0.8
30.98
26
-
Transaction Assumptions
Offer Premium for Osisko
Offer Price for Osisko shares
Equity per share
Cash per share
Total per share
Total Equity
Total Cash
Total Equity and Cash
1.2%
9.3%
1.6%
0.5%
2.1%
10.9%
9.2%
4.4%
3.4%
3.9%
1.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.4%
7.6%
7.5%
4.4%
3.7%
2.5%
4.8%
3.8%
3.5%
2.3%
1.6%
3.69
2.26
5.95
1,642
1,005
2,647
C$
C$
C$
C$M
C$M
C$M
Exchange Ratio (Goldcorp shares for every Osisko share)
Goldcorp Shares Issued to Osisko
Pro-forma NewCo Shares O/S
0.146
65
877
M
M
Pro-forma Ownership
Market Capitalization
Pro-forma
NewCo
11.2%
4.8%
3.9%
3.4%
3.1%
15%
7%
Enterprise Value
20,542.0
1,641.72
21,052.1
1,822.88
Goldcorp
8%
Goldcorp
Osisko
Osisko
92%
93%
Current X-rate and Commodity Prices
X-Rate
Gold
Silver
C$/US$
US$/oz
US$/oz
1.0865
1,251
20.37
Lead
Zinc
Copper
US$/lb
US$/lb
US$/lb
0.97
0.93
3.32
(1) Includes in-the-money options and warrants
MPA Morrison Park Advisors
Page 2 of 6
14/01/2014
TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
Mineral Resources
Goldcorp
Effective Equity Interest
Osisko
100%
P&P
Proforma Goldcorp
100%
M&I
Inferred
Total
P&P
M&I
Inferred
Total
P&P
M&I
Inferred
Total
Tonnage
Tonnes (100%)
M mt
2,599
1,126
1,042
4,768
311
409
248
967
2,910
1,535
1,290
5,735
g/mt
0.80
14
0.10
0.24
0.10
0.71
10
0.07
0.22
0.04
0.77
3
0.02
0.03
0.16
0.78
11
0.1
0.2
0.10
1.01
-
0.85
-
0.77
-
0.88
-
0.82
12
0.09
0.22
0.09
0.75
8
0.05
0.16
0.03
0.77
3
0.01
0.03
0.13
0.79
9
0.1
0.2
0.08
67
1,160
5,814
13,961
5,758
26
374
1,789
5,395
955
26
111
384
788
3,762
119
1,646
7,987
20,144
10,475
27
77
1,160
5,814
13,961
5,758
37
374
1,789
5,395
955
32
111
384
788
3,762
146
1,646
7,987
20,144
10,475
Grade
Gold
Silver
Lead
Zinc
Copper
g/mt
%
%
%
Contained Metal
Gold
Silver
Lead
Zinc
Copper
M ozs
M ozs
M lbs
M lbs
M lbs
10
-
6
-
-
Osisko Metal Content
Goldcorp Metal Content
Goldcorp Metal Content
148,694
14%
Gold
33,524
7,733
8%
Silver
18,748
3%
Lead
34,766
61%
Zinc
14%
0%
NewCo Metal Content
Osisko Metal Content
34,277
Gold
Silver
-
Lead
Zinc
Copper
Copper
MPA Morrison Park Advisors
11
-
12%
7%
3%
12%
NewCo Metal Content
182,971
33,524 Gold
7,733 Silver
18,748 Lead
34,766
Zinc
66%
Copper
100%
Page 3 of 6
14/01/2014
TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
Resource Accretion / Dilution
Goldcorp
Osisko
NewCo
Goldcorp
Osisko
NewCo
Proven & Probable
Measured & Indicated
Proven & Probable
Goldcorp
Osisko
NewCo
Total
Gross Metal Value
Gold
Silver
Lead
Zinc
Copper
Total Metal
US$M
US$M
US$M
US$M
US$M
83,917
23,637
5,629
12,994
19,111
145,288
12,635
12,635
96,552
23,637
5,629
12,994
19,111
157,923
116,268
31,257
7,361
18,015
22,280
195,180
26,646
26,646
142,914
31,257
7,361
18,015
22,280
221,827
148,694
33,524
7,733
18,748
34,766
243,465
34,277
34,277
182,971
33,524
7,733
18,748
34,766
277,743
Relative Contribution
Total Metal
Enterprise Value
Difference
92.0%
92.0%
0.0%
8.0%
8.0%
0.0%
812
872
445
494
167
167
26
24
88.0%
92.0%
4.0%
12.0%
8.0%
-4.0%
812
872
445
494
224
235
54
34
87.7%
92.0%
-4.4%
Metal Value per share
Shares Outstanding
Shares Adjusted (2)
Total Metal Value
Pro-forma Tansaction
M
M
US$/sh
US$/sh
Accretion / Dilution
Metal / Share
877
944
Goldcorp
Osisko
0.4%
-4.6%
Goldcorp
877
944
Goldcorp
Osisko
NewCo
812
445
877
872
494
944
279
294
Osisko
5%
12.3%
8.0%
4.4%
Goldcorp
-36%
69
43
Osisko
5%
-38%
EV/Resource Multiple
Gold Equiv. (at market)
US$/oz
Gold Equiv. (at offer Price) US$/oz
175
175
226
258
181
130
130
107
122
129
104
104
83
95
103
(2) Shares outstanding are adjusted by issuing an amount, at market price, required to eliminate all debt net of cash.
MPA Morrison Park Advisors
Page 4 of 6
14/01/2014
TRANSACTION ANALYSIS
Goldcorp
Financial Assumptions
Osisko
NewCo
Goldcorp Osisko
Financial Assumptions
Adjusted EBITDA (3)
NewCo
Gold Sold
3rd Quarter 2013
US$M
346
59
405
2nd Quarter 2013
1st Quarter 2013
4th Quarter 2012
Last 12 months
3rd Quarter 2013 Annualized
US$M
291
451
1,786
2,874
1,384
43
60
88
251
236
334
511
1,874
3,125
1,620
US$M
US$M
US$M
US$M
3rd Quarter 2013
EV / EBITDA
000 oz
652
123
775
2nd Quarter 2013
000 oz
1st Quarter 2013
000 oz
4th Quarter 2012
000 oz
Last 12 months
000 oz
3rd Quarter 2013 Annualized
000 oz
624
595
645
2,517
2,608
110
96
111
439
493
734
691
756
2,956
3,101
531
466
758
2,769
1,142
479
396
631
791
570
522
456
740
2,478
1,057
531
479
522
EBITDA per oz Gold Sold
Last 12 months
3rd Quarter 2013 Annualized
X
X
7.06
14.67
9.12
9.68
7.33
14.14
3rd Quarter 2013
2nd Quarter 2013
1st Quarter 2013
4th Quarter 2012
Last 12 months
EBITDA per adjusted share
Last 12 months
US$/sh
3.30
0.51
Pro-forma Transaction
US$/sh
3.31
0.48
3rd Quarter 2013 Annualized
Pro-forma Transaction
US$/sh
1.59
1.72
0.48
0.25
0.4%
8%
-5%
-48%
US$/sh
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
US$/oz
3rd Quarter 2013 Annualized
US$/oz
Accretion / Dilution
Last 12 months
3rd Quarter 2013 Annualized
(3) EBITDA has been adjusted for other non-cash items not related to operations.
Adjusted EBITDA
$ millions
EBITDA per oz Gold Sold
$ / oz
2,000
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
1,500
1,000
500
4th Quarter
2012
1st Quarter
2013
Goldcorp
MPA Morrison Park Advisors
2nd Quarter
2013
4th Quarter
2012
3rd Quarter
2013
1st Quarter
2013
Goldcorp
Osisko
Page 5 of 6
2nd Quarter
2013
3rd Quarter
2013
Osisko
14/01/2014
Disclosures
The content in this document is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All, or any, information in this
document shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or
investment strategy, or to vote in favour or against a transaction, or to tender or not to tender into a transaction. The analysis and ideas expressed in
this document is based solely on public information and the opinions of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of sponsors or firms
affiliated with the author. The author may or may not have a position in any company referenced in this document. Any action that you take as a result
of information, or analysis in this document is ultimately your responsibility. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. This
document is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security,
strategy or investment product. The charts and comments are only the author’s view and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. All
material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. The information contained herein (including historical prices
or values) has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable; however, we make no representation as to, or accepts any
responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or any decision made or action taken by you or any
third party in reliance upon the data and analysis. Opinions expressed in this document may change without prior notice. No representation is made
that the information and analysis in this document is accurate or complete. This document is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to
buy or sell the securities mentioned. This information is based on hypothetical assumptions and is intended for illustrative purposes only.
MPA Morrison Park Advisors
Page 6 of 6
14/01/2014