OVERVIEW OF TRADE FLOWS
Global trends in food consumption
December 1, 2014
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GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRENDS
What’s happened in global trade in the last years?
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How have exports evolved?
Which are the key regions producing fruits?
Which are the key drivers pushing fruit exports and consumption?
How retailing and foodservice growth impacts on sales of fruit?
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World’s exports continue to climb
$20,000
Total World-to-World Merchandise Exports
in US$ Billions
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Euromonitor International
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WTO volume trend and forecast
Volume of World merchandise exports, 1990-2014
Indices, 1990=100
Figures for 2013 and 2014 are projections.
Source: WTO Secretariat
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World AG exports near $1.8 trillion
Total World-to-World Exports of Agricultural Products in US$
Billions
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: WTO Secretariat
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Asia Pacific produces 65% of world
Fruits, followed by Latam with 11%
Regional Fruit volume production
500,000
‘000 Tonnes
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Western Europe
Australasia
Middle East and Africa
Eastern Europe
North America
Source: Euromonitor International
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Banana, Oranges and Apples lead fruit
production in the world
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
10%
200,000
150,000
100,000
42%
50,000
0
Fruit
Other Fruits
Cranberries/Blueberries
Cherries
Plums/Sloes
Grapefruit/Pomelo
Strawberries
Peaches/Nectarines
Lemon and Limes
Pineapple
Pears/Quinces
Grapes
Apples
Oranges, Tangerines and Mandarins
Banana
Source: Euromonitor International
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Blueberries were the fastest growing fruits globally at 9% in 2013
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Grapes outsold cranberries/blueberries by 30 to one in volume
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Top 5 markets driving blueberries were Australia, Russia, Czech Republic,
Slovakia and Venezuela
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Key fruit exporters include USA, China,
Chile and Western Europe
Export 10%-20% in 2009-2013
Import 10%-20% in 2009-2013
Export up to 10% in 2009-2013
Import 5%-10% in 2009-2013
Source: Euromonitor International
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Drivers, constraints and trends
THE GLOBAL SUPERMARKET IS EXPANDING
BUT NOT WITHOUT CHALLENGES
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INCREASE IN PTAS SUPPORTING
DYNAMIC TRADE GROWTH
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POPULATION, BIG DRIVER OF TRADE
GROWTH
Population Growth in ‘000: 2011 through 2020
350,000
300,000
Developing regions present
population growth of more than
630 million through 2020.
250,000
200,000
Developed regions present
population growth of less than
50 million through 2020.
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Asia Pacific Middle East
and Africa
Latin
America
Western
Europe
North
America
Australasia
Source: Euromonitor International
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POPULATION GROWTH IN AREAS
SERVED BY TRADE
Millions of people
Urban vs Rural Population Growth: 2013-2018
Urban
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Rural
World
Asia Pacific
MEA
Latam
Source: Euromonitor International
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Consumers buying their food rather than growing/producing their own
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Convenience becomes more important to consumers
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Food manufacturers able to reach more people
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Increased consumer wages and spending power in urban areas
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RISE IN DISPOSABLE INCOME
SUPPORTS PURCHASING
Regional Disposable Income: Historic & Forecast in
US$ billions
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$0
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Yr 2011
Yr 2020
% Growth
Source: Euromonitor International
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FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS
Developing markets are critical to continued growth
As they…
Took in 56% of California’s tree nut exports and 33% of dried fruit in 2013
Relatively rapid growth in population & income
Massive expansion of middle class
Improving infrastructure and distribution
Emphasis on Free-Trade-Agreements
Adds to a diversified portfolio of trade partners
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REGIONAL GROWTH OF GROCERY
RETAILING
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REGIONAL GROWTH OF CONSUMER
FOODSERVICE
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REGIONAL CAGR: PACKAGED FOODS
FORECAST
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DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CRITICAL
TO VOLUME GROWTH
Source: Euromonitor International
 Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa and Latin America are expected to combine for
approximately 93% global volume growth in packaged foods from 2012-2017.
 Asia-Pacific is expected to be 65% of total global volume growth, and Latin America
11% of it.
 Western Europe and North America experiencing flat per capita consumption.
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PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION REVEALS
OPPORTUNITIES
Packaged Food:
Kg Per Capita Consumption by Region
2014 to 2019
Australasia
400
North America
350
300
Western Europe
250
Eastern Europe
200
150
Latin America
100
Middle East and
Africa
50
0
Asia Pacific
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Euromonitor International
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GROWTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR MOST AG EXPORTS
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