Selecting Projects: Maximize Productivity in Your Development Portfolio Portfolio Management ECO WORLD STYRIA – Graz, Austria with: Dr. Robert G. Cooper Product Development Institute Inc. & McMaster University, Canada E-mail: robertcooper@cogeco.ca Contact in Germany, Austria, Switzerland: five i`s innovation consulting gmbh Dr. Angelika Dreher a.dreher@five-is-innovation.com www.five-is-innovation.com www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com 34 Stone Church Road, Suite 111 Ancaster, Ontario, Canada, L9K 1P4 P: 905-304-8797 F: 905-304-8799 Topics in This Session: Portfolio Management Maximizing the value of your portfolio – seeking maximum productivity Doing the right projects – a focus on value-to-the-company and profitability Scorecards & the Productivity Index for better project prioritization Getting balance in your mix of projects Balancing projects with resource availabilities – not overloading the pipeline Pruning the portfolio to eliminate waiting time – doing fewer projects but higher value ones Recall LRP NPD Principle #6: Focused and effective portfolio management 2 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 1 A Dramatic Trend From 1995 to 2004, cycle times have decreased from 41.7 months to 24 months ¾ An astounding 42% decrease in time-to-market in 10 years! How? What’s going on here? Have we really become that much more efficient at NPD Or is some other factor at play here? Look what’s happened to our NPD portfolios over the same 10 years We are picking the low hanging fruit A trivialization of NPD Source: Adams, M. & Boike, D., “PDMA foundation CPAS study reveals new trends”, Visions, XXVIII: 3, July 2004, 26-29; and: The PDMA Foundation's 2004 Comparative Performance Assessment Study (CPAS). For mid 1990s data, see: Griffin, A., Drivers of NPD Success: The 1997 PDMA Report. PDMA 1997. See also ref [1]. 3 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Breakdown of the Portfolio by Project Types – Then and Now % of Projects in the Development Portfolio Development Project Type 1990 2004 New to world, new to market – innovations 20.4% 11.5% 43.7% decrease New product lines to the company 38.8% 27.1% 30.1% decrease Additions to existing product line in company 20.4% 24.7% 20.8% increase 20.4% 36.7% 80.1% increase 100.0% 100.0% % Change Improvements and modifications to existing company products Total -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sources: APQC study, and Visions article, ref [1] 4 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 2 Some More Provocative Facts: Portfolio has Not only are portfolios 19.4% excellent balance in project types unbalanced 31.0% Portfolios contain too many Portfolio contains 0.0% high value-to-the21.2% low value-to-the-company business projects 37.9% projects 12.0% Good job of And far too many projects 25.0% ranking/prioritizing projects for the limited resources 41.4% available 4.0% Good balance 24.0% between number of A small minority of projects & resources 37.9% businesses have a 3.8% Formal & systematic systematic & formal 21.2% portfolio management portfolio management process in place 31.0% process in place 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percentage of Businesses But hi-productivity Low-Productivity Businesses businesses suffer much Average Business less from these deficiencies 0.0% 50% High-Productivity Businesses 5 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com The Answer: Portfolio Management Fundamental to Improving Productivity in NPD ¾ ¾ HIGH Technology Impact to Business How shall we invest our R&D or Development funds and people? What is our investment portfolio? Portfolio Management: Is about resource allocation And balance in the portfolio And about which NP projects shall the firm fund from among many opportunities (Go / Kill)? LOW LOW ¾ Likelihood of Commercialization Within Next 5 Years HIGH Key to maximizing NPD Productivity Productivity = Output Input Portfolio Management helps effectively allocate scarce resources 6 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 3 Three Ways to Increase Productivity in the Portfolio 1. Strategic Portfolio Management ¾ ¾ ¾ Shift the balance of projects in terms of … • Markets or business sectors • Product lines or categories • Technologies Away from small low-value areas & projects To areas that promise higher productivity 2. Tactical Portfolio Management – project selection and prioritization ¾ ¾ ¾ Selecting the best projects within each area Prioritizing projects – highest value projects at the top of the list To maximize the Productivity Index overall 3. Putting a limit on the number of projects ¾ ¾ To avoid pipeline gridlock And to accelerate projects to market – reduce time 7 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Strategic and Tactical Portfolio Management – Both Are Used to Increase Portfolio Productivity Business Strategy and Product Innovation Strategy 1. Strategic Portfolio Decisions: Product Roadmap Extensions into Chemical Mixers Original Agitator Platform - Extension Strategic Buckets Chemical Mixers: Basic Line Strategic Buckets and Product Roadmap Plan extensions & new platforms Chemical Mixers: Special Impellers Chemical Mixers: Hi-Power Extensions into Petroleum Blenders Platform Projects New Product Projects Platform Extension Petroleum Blenders : Low Power Range (change the basis of competition) Petroleum Blenders : High Power New Product Platform: Aerators Aerator Platform P&P Aerators: Line #1 (fixed mount) P&P Aerators: Line #2 (floating) P&P Aerators: Hi-Power Extensions into Aerators for Chemical Waste Platform Extension Chemical Aerators: Line #1 Other: Extensions, Modifications, Improvements, Fixes, Cost Reductions Chemical Aerators: Line #2 2. Tactical Portfolio Decisions: Project selection (Go / Kill), prioritization and resource allocation Portfolio Review: ¾ Holistic ¾ All projects in auction 9 Right priorities? 9 Right mix? 9 Alignment? 9 Sufficiency? 9 Resource adequacy? ¾ By senior management Stage-Gate® Process: ¾ Individual projects ¾ In depth evaluation ¾ Quality data available ¾ Go/Kill decisions ¾ Resources allocated ¾ By senior management 8 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 4 Strategic Portfolio Decision: The Right Split Across Project Types Worst Performers Average Business Best Performers Promotional Developments & Package Changes 12% 10% 6% Incremental Product Improvements & Changes 40% 33% 28% Major Product Revisions 19% 22% 25% New To The Business Products 20% 24% 24% 7% 10% 16% ~45% ~55% ~65% New To The World Products 10 Point Steps Best Performers focus more on innovative and game-changing projects 9 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Strategic Buckets: The Right Splits Across Project Types Best Practice Example Platform Projects New Product Projects Management makes strategic choices in terms of: ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ Projects categorized into Buckets Projects ranked in each Bucket until out of resources ¾ Other: Extensions, Modifications, Improvements, Fixes, Cost Reductions Project types Market segments Product lines Technologies Use different criteria per Bucket Resource allocation mirrors strategic priorities “Strategy becomes real when you start spending money!” Best Performers seek optimal balance in terms of resource allocation across markets, technologies and project types 10 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 5 Using Strategic Buckets Project Project Rank Gate Score Rank Savings /MD 150-C 1 88 97-D 2 85 Jeanie 1 88 149-F 3 80 Monty 2 85 1402 4 77 Kool-Flow 3 80 98-DD 5 75 Pop-Up 4 77 1267 6 70 Regatta 5 75 1230-D 7 69 Slow-Brew 6 70 Widget-4 7 69 Project Rank $2M Cost New Products=$2M Reductions =$2M Improvements & Modifications = $3M Sales/ MD Marketing Requests = $3M Project Rank $2M Mktg Score 1542 1 42.3 Walco-43 1 79 Pop-Redo 2 37.3 Mini-Pkg 2 68 Quick-Fit 3 31.2 Asda Refill 3 65 1498-K 4 25.5 Regen-3 4 61 Flavor-1 5 24.1 Small-Pack 5 55 Xmas Pkg 6 18.0 Tesco-Lite 6 52 Lite-Pkg 7 6.7 M&S-41 7 50 $3M 4 portfolios Fire-walled Rank projects until out of resources in each bucket $3M 11 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Can Use Other Dimensions to Split Resources Architectural Sealants Flooring Coatings 29.0% Specialty Applications 7.0% 25.0% Institutional 35.0% 10.0% 14.0% Automotive 26.0% 40.0% 14.0% Deck Coatings Roofing Membranes Industrial Market Segments Product Lines Focus your resources into high productivity buckets 12 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 6 Inputs to the Strategic Buckets Decision Strategy & Goals Best-in-Class Businesses 15% Cost Reductions 25% New Products Strategic Buckets New Product Platform Projects Projects 30% Improvements, Modifications & Extensions (IMEs) 30% Maintenance & Support (change the basis of competition) Other: Extensions, Modifications, Past Spending Breakdown Improvements, Fixes, Cost Reductions Productivity of Previous Project Types 16% 14% Architectural 40 33% Sealants Flooring Coatings 35 37% 30 Specialty Applications 29.0% 7.0% 25.0% 35.0% Institutional 10.0% 25 20 18% 23% 15 14.0% 10 Automotive 26.0% 5 0 40.0% 14.0% 23% MKtg Requests IMEs NPs Roofing Membranes Deck Coatings Cost Reds Industrial 36% Market Segments Product Lines 13 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Determine Your Productivity: By Project Types Input – R&D Costs 18% 23% 40 Mktg Requests 35 IMEs NPs 23% 30 Cost Reds 25 36% Input 20 Output PI 15 Output – 3 Yr Cum Sales 16% 14% 10 Mktg Requests 5 0 IMEs NPs MKtg Requests IMEs NPs Cost Reds 33% 37% Cost Reds Based on Ivoclar Vivadent; disguised data 14 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 7 Productivity By Business Areas Input – R&D Costs 13% 50 Bus Area A 45 Bus Area B 51% Bus Area C 36% 40 35 30 25 Input 20 PI Output Output – 3 Yr Cum Sales 25% 28% 15 10 Bus Area A Bus Area B 5 0 Bus Area C Bus Area Bus Area Bus Area A B C 47% 15 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential Strategic Buckets: Recap Requires that you have: ¾ ¾ A Business Strategy A Product Innovation & Technology Strategy • Goals • Defined arenas of strategic focus • Relative priorities of these A defined management process that moves from… ¾ ¾ Strategy through to Spending decisions (splits by bucket) Dimensions (splits) can be anything that’s relevant to you: ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ Markets, segments, business areas or industry sectors Geography (regions of the world) Project types (new products, improvements, cost reductions, etc.) Product lines, product types, product categories, product groups Technologies, technology types 16 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 8 Now Tactical: Project Selection & Prioritization The Goal High Bread and Butter Grade A Sealant Pearls Auto Seal TP-40 Deck Coat D-50 Maximize the productivity of the portfolio Rank the projects: ¾ Top Floor U.V. Seal $10 M 8 6 2 4 T-400 0 Reward (NPV) Top Coat A Solvent 800 SPL Solvent 1 Edge Coat Oysters Top Seal First Coat Low White Elephants Best to Worst Pick your winners – focus your resources Get these done as quickly as possible Do fewer projects… but better ones (high value-to-the-corporation projects) 17 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential Impact of Making Better Prioritization Decisions Situation: ¾ ¾ ¾ Three potential projects Each project requires a total of $3M in person time to do You have $3M person-days of resources per year Options: A. B. Approve and start all three projects • Total cost: $9M • Takes 3 years at $3M/year to complete & launch all three Or pick the best one – do it (put the others on hold) • Launch one at end of year 1 • Another one at end of year 2 • By year 3, more attractive projects are found • Kill the remaining original one… because you find a better “new idea” by then • Do one “new idea” project – assume it has equal in value to these first two projects What is the NPV of each approach? 18 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 9 Impact of Prioritization Values 8 Option A: Do 3 projects concurrently 6 NPV=3.5 4 DCF of the 3 Values @ 20% = 10.4 Cost/year = 3 (PV=6.9 over 3 years) 1 Option B: Prioritize & focus – do 1 project 2 Years 3 NPV=8.0 8 7 6 DCF = 14.9 NPV is 2.28 times with the same person-days input Prioritization increases Productivity by 128% 19 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com The Worst Case Scenario with Prioritization Values 8 Option A: Do 3 projects concurrently 6 NPV=3.5 4 DCF of the 3 Values @ 20% = 10.4 Cost/year = 3 (PV=6.9 over 3 years) 1 Option C: Pick the worst project, followed by 2nd worst 2 Years 3 NPV=4.6 4 6 7 DCF = 11.6 Productivity is Still Better by 33% ! The failure to prioritize means loss of productivity in a major way 20 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 10 Project Prioritization: Use Both Portfolio Reviews & Gates 1. Strategic Buckets Strategic Portfolio Decisions: Strategic Platform Projects New Product Projects (change the basis of competition) Resource Commitment to NPD • The Strategic Role of Your Business • Strategy, Goals and Task Approach • Competitive Parity • Spending Level Based on Demand from Active Projects Other: Buckets and Strategic Product Roadmap Extensions, Modifications, Improvements, Fixes, Cost Reductions Product Roadmap Extensions into Chemical Mixers Original Agitator Platform - Extension Chemical Mixers: Basic Line Plan extensions & new platforms Chemical Mixers: Special Impellers Resource Commitment to NPD Chemical Mixers: Hi-Power Extensions into Petroleum Blenders Platform Extension Petroleum Blenders : Low Power Range Petroleum Blenders : High Power New Product Platform: Aerators Aerator Platform P&P Aerators: Line #1 (fixed mount) P&P Aerators: Line #2 (floating) P&P Aerators: Hi-Power Extensions into Aerators for Chemical Waste Platform Extension Chemical Aerators: Line #1 Chemical Aerators: Line #2 2. Tactical Portfolio Decisions: Project selection (Go/Kill), prioritization and resource allocation Portfolio Review: ¾ Holistic ¾ All projects in auction 9 Right priorities? 9 Right mix? 9 Alignment? 9 Sufficiency? 9 Resource adequacy? ¾ By senior management Stage-Gate® Process: ¾ Individual projects ¾ In depth evaluation ¾ Quality data available ¾ By senior management ¾ Go/Kill decisions ¾ Resources allocated 21 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Ranking Projects Using NPV (Six Projects: Major Materials Company) Project PV (present value of future earnings) Development Cost Commercialization Cost Ranking Based on NPV Decision (net present value) NPV Alpha 36 3 5 28 4 Hold Beta 64 5 2 57 2 Go Gamma 11 2 1 8 5 Hold Delta 3 1 0.5 1.5 6 Hold Echo 56 5 3 48 3 Hold Foxtrot 70 10 2 58 1 Go Note: Total Development Budget of $15 M 22 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 11 Your Portfolio Decision Is: Undertake 2 projects ¾ ¾ Foxtrot Beta Consumes the entire budget of $15 M Yields a portfolio value of $115 M For an overall Portfolio Productivity Index of 7.67 Which is quite good! 23 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Method 2: The Productivity Index Take what you are trying to maximize ¾ Example: NPV Divide by what the constraining resource is ¾ ¾ Example: People (expressed as person-days) Or Development funds ($000) And rank your projects by this index until out of resources Productivity Index = NPV= forecasted NPV of the project Output Input = Or = NPV Person-Days NPV Development Cost Person-Days = resources required to complete the project Development Cost = cost to complete the project (the “go forward” costs) 24 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 12 Productivity Index = NPV/Dev Note: Same Total Development Budget of $15 M Project NPV Development Cost Productivity Index=NPV/De v Cost Sum of Dev Costs Beta 57 5 11.4 5 Echo 48 5 9.6 10 Alpha 28 3 9.3 13 Limit reached Foxtrot 58 10 5.8 23 Gamma 8 2 4.0 25 Delta 1.5 1 1.5 26 Determine the Productivity Index for every NPD project Use it to rank (prioritize) your projects 25 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential Your New Portfolio Decision With Productivity Index, the decision is different More efficient projects are selected ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ Beta Echo Alpha And Gamma (to use up the last $2 M) The portfolio value is now $141 M ¾ ¾ An increase of $26 M With no increase in spending! The Portfolio Productivity Index is now 9.40 ¾ Up from 7.67 PI Example 26 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 13 The Challenge: Dealing with Risks Not every project has a 100% chance of commercial success Any many won’t achieve their sales & profit projections Some won’t even be developed ¾ Hit technical roadblocks How to handle risks and uncertainties Several options: 1. 2. 3. Risk adjusted discount factor in your NPV calculations • Use different values of i for different project types Probability-adjusted NPV • Adjust the values of some inputs to the NPV calculation • By their probability of occurring • Example: multiply Sales by a probability ( < 100%) Options Pricing (Real Options or Expected Commercial Value) 27 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential Method 3: Expected Commercial Value Value of the project if successful is… ¾ ¾ $36 m Based on DCF of future incomes stream Development cost: $3 m Commercialization cost (marketing roll-out, production equipment): $5 m But… ¾ ¾ ¾ Only 50% chance of commercial success if we Launch But 80% chance of success of technical success (getting thru Development OK) No costs (other than $3m and $5m) if not successful What is the value of the project? Use Decision Tree Analysis to determine the ECV 28 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 14 Details: Determination of Expected Commercial Value of Project Commercial Success $13M Technical Success Pts $ECV Development $7.4M $36M Yes Launch $C No Yes $18M $D No $10.4M $PV Pcs Commercial Failure Technical Failure ECV = [(PV * Pcs - C) * P - D] ts Three Methods to Estimate Probabilities: ¾ Delphi (modified) ¾ Data Tables ¾ Scoring Model • See Portfolio Management for New Products, pp 231-232 29 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential Method 4: Scoring Model Based on theory that qualitative factors predict NP project success and project value Relies on those factors that are correlated with success & value… examples: ¾ Competitive & product advantage ¾ Market attractiveness ¾ Leveraging core competencies A scoring system based on these factors ¾ A point count system ¾ Use scorecards Make sure you choose factors that really do discriminate between profitable and unprofitable projects – and you can prove it! 30 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 15 A Best-In-Class Scoring Model NP Projects – Gate 3 1. Strategic: • • Alignment with Business’s strategy Strategic importance of project 2. Product Advantage: • • • • Unique product benefits to users Differentiation vs. competitors’ products Meets customer needs better Score factors in red 0-10 Value for money 3. Market Attractiveness: • • • By gatekeepers At Gate meeting Use a scorecard – see end Market size Market growth Competitive situation 4. Leverages Core Competencies: • • • Marketing & distribution leverage Technological leverage Manufacturing / Operations leverage 31 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential Gate 3 “Should Meet” Criteria (continued) 5. Technical Feasibility: • • • Size of technical gap Technical complexity Track record & technical uncertainty 6. Risk Versus Return: Expected profitability (magnitude: NPV) Return (IRR) • Payback period • Certainty of revenue, cost and profit estimates Should Meet items (factors in bold) are scored (1-5 or 0-10) on a scorecard Factor scores must clear minimum hurdles Also added (weighted or unweighted) to yield Project Attractiveness Score (Monty example) • • • • • Use Scorecards at Gate meeting to help make Go/Kill decisions Also use it to rank (prioritize) your projects 32 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 16 Using the Gates for Maximum Productivity Idea Screen Idea Stage Gate 1 Discovery 2nd Screen Gate 2 Stage 1 Go to Develop Stage 2 Business Case Scoping Gate 3 Stage 3 Development Use the Gates ¾ To scrutinize projects in depth ¾ Employ the NPV, PI and scorecard score – meet hurdles? ¾ Compare new project to the portfolio of ongoing projects • Impact on portfolio – positive or negative • Relative ranking (use PI & scorecard score) ¾ Prune out the weak ones ¾ Resource the strong projects Commit resources to projects at the Gates A Gate is “an irrevocable commitment of resources to a project & team” 33 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Using the Portfolio Reviews for Maximum Productivity Use Portfolio Reviews ¾ To manage the entire portfolio Rank & prioritize projects – the prioritized list • • ¾ ¾ New Products 23% Cost Reductions 27% To check for balance and alignment • • ¾ Breakdown by Project Types Prioritized List of Active & On-Hold Projects Based on scorecard & PI (with loadings) Various pie charts Bubble diagram Platforms 9% Make changes to the portfolio Or signal changes to the gating procedure High Prioritized List of Active and On Hold Projects Project Rank (Priority Level) Total Project Score Portfolio Balance Factor Adjusted Total Project Score Soya-44 1 80 1.10 88 Encapsulated 2 82 1.00 82 Legume N-2 3 70 1.10 77 Spread-Ease 4 75 1.00 75 CharcoalBase 5 80 0.90 72 1 80 1.00 80** Extensions 23% Fixes 18% Probability of Technical Success ¾ Pearls TP-40 Deck Coat $10 M 8 Grade A Sealant Auto Seal D-50 Top Floor U.V. Seal 6 2 4 T-400 Solvent 800 Bread and Butter 0 Reward (NPV) Top Coat A SPL Solvent 1 Projects on Hold Edge Coat Oysters N2-Fix Slow-Release 2 70 1.10 77* Multi-Purpose 3 75 .90 68 etc.. etc.. Top Seal First Coat Low White Elephants 34 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 17 Look for the Right Prioritization of Active Projects Do you have the correct project ranking to yield maximum Productivity? Are the right projects Active (versus on Hold) Project Name Gate Score (0-10) Stage Productivity Index NPV/MD Resources Required (Loading MD) Sum of Loadings (MD) Rank Murray 8.3 3 206 120 120 1 Timor 8.3 4 194 140 260 2 Bering 7.5 3 180 90 350 3 Elk 7.8 2 142 180 530 4 Berlin 7.0 4 148 100 630 5 Columbia 8.0 Hold at Gate 3 150 120 - hold Snap 7.0 Hold at Gate 2 160 80 - hold Moose 7.5 Hold at Gate 2 108 130 - hold Banda 7.3 Hold at Gate 3 129 110 - hold 35 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Check Balance Against Your Buckets: Actual Versus Targeted Resource Allocation Breakdown by Market Sector Breakdown by Project Types Institutional: 6% Target:10% Cost Reductions: 27% Target: 10% Platforms: 9% Target: 15% New Products: 23% Target: 40% Extensions: 23% Target: 25% Medical: 10% Target: 10% Industrial: 25% Target: 30% Automotive: 20% Target: 20% Fixes: 18% Target: 10% Residential: 39% Target: 30% Your strategic buckets exercise yields target splits, shown in red – what should be The pie chart slices show your expenditure breakdowns to date – what is Look for imbalances that signal corrective actions 36 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 18 Check for Balance and Risk Profile: Risk-Reward Bubble Diagram Plot all your projects Circle size = annual resources to each project Pearls Probability of Technical Success High TP-40 Deck Coat $10 M 8 6 Bread and Butter Grade A Sealant Auto Seal D-50 Top Floor U.V. Seal 2 4 T-400 0 Reward (NPV) Top Coat A Solvent 800 SPL Solvent 1 Edge Coat Oysters Top Seal First Coat Look for the right balance in terms of risk and reward White Elephants Low 37 www.prod-dev.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential www.stage-gate.com Another Version of Risk Reward Bubble Diagram High (based on scorecard scores) Advanced Development - Risk vs. Reward 25 Combustion Pressure Touch sensor 20 Torque Powertrain Air Quality Pedestrian Torque EPAS CO2 sensor Score : Reward Humidity Sensor Hydrocarbon 15 Cylinder Pressure Current sensor Turbo Speed Sensor Coupled Torque Steering Torque AnglePosition based Oil Condition Traction Control Sun Sensor 10 Soot Sensor EM Brake Position Prediction Force Sensor 5 Low HVAC Flow 0 0 High 5 10 Score : Risk Level 15 20 25 Low 38 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 19 The Result: An Effective Portfolio Management System to Maximize Your Portfolio Productivity Business Strategy & Product Innovation Strategy 1. Strategic Portfolio Decisions: Product Roadmap Extensions into Chemical Mixers Original Agitator Platform - Extension Strategic Buckets Chemical Mixers: Basic Line Strategic Buckets and Product Roadmap Plan extensions & new platforms Chemical Mixers: Special Impellers Chemical Mixers: Hi-Power Extensions into Petroleum Blenders Platform Projects New Product Projects Platform Extension Petroleum Blenders : Low Power Range (change the basis of competition) Petroleum Blenders : High Power New Product Platform: Aerators Aerator Platform P&P Aerators: Line #1 (fixed mount) P&P Aerators: Line #2 (floating) P&P Aerators: Hi-Power Extensions into Aerators for Chemical Waste Platform Extension Chemical Aerators: Line #1 Other: Extensions, Modifications, Improvements, Fixes, Cost Reductions Chemical Aerators: Line #2 2. Tactical Portfolio Decisions: Project selection (Go/Kill), prioritization & resource allocation Portfolio Review: ¾ Holistic ¾ All projects in auction 9 Right mix? 9 Alignment? 9 Sufficiency? 9 Right priorities? 9 Resource adequacy? ¾ By senior management Stage-Gate® Process: ¾ Individual projects ¾ In depth evaluation ¾ Quality data available ¾ Go/Kill decisions ¾ Resources allocated ¾ By senior management 39 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential References Books: Portfolio Management for New Products, By Cooper, Edgett & Kleinschmidt (Perseus Books, Reading, Mass) hardcover, 2002. The most comprehensive book on the topic available… provides an in-depth look at the best portfolio methods, and their use in industry. Order online for next day shipments: www.stage-gate.com Articles: (log on www.stage-gate.com for no charge download) 1. R.G. Cooper, “Your NPD portfolio may be harmful to your business’s health”, PDMA Visions, XXIX, 2, April 2005, 22-26. For 1990 portfolio data, see: Cooper, R.G. & Kleinschmidt E.J., “An investigation into the new product process: steps, deficiencies and impact”, Journal of Product Innovation Management 3: 2, 1986, 71-85. 2. R.G. Cooper and S.J. Edgett, “Overcoming the crunch in resources for new product development,” ResearchTechnology Management, 46, 3, May-June 2003, 48-58. 3. R.G. Cooper, S.J. Edgett, S.J. & E.J. Kleinschmidt, “Optimizing the Stage-Gate® Process: What Best Practice Companies Are Doing – Part II”, Research-Technology Management 45, 6, Nov-Dec 2002. 4. R.G. Cooper, S.J. Edgett & E.J. Kleinschmidt, “New problems, new solutions: making portfolio management more effective”, Research-Technology Management, 2000, 43, 2, 18-33. 5. R.G. Cooper, Edgett, S.J., & Kleinschmidt E.J, “Portfolio management in new product development: lessons from the leaders – Part I”, Research-Technology Management, Sept.-Oct. 1997, 16-28. 6. R.G. Cooper, Edgett, S.J., & Kleinschmidt E.J, “Portfolio management in new product development: lessons from the leaders – Part II”, Research-Technology Management, Nov.-Dec. 1997, 43-52. 7. R.G. Cooper, Edgett, S.J., & Kleinschmidt E.J., “Best practices for managing R&D portfolios”, ResearchTechnology Management, 41, 4, July-Aug. 1998, 20-33. 8. R.G. Cooper, S.J. Edgett & E.J. Kleinschmidt, “New product portfolio management: practices and performance”, Journal of Product Innovation Management, 16,4, July 1999, 333-351.(winner of T.P. Hustad Best Paper award, 2000). 9. R.G. Cooper, “Doing it right -winning with new products, “Ivey Business Journal, July-August 2000, 4, pp 54-60. 10. R.G. Cooper, S.J. Edgett & E.J. Kleinschmidt, “Benchmarking best NPD practices – II: Strategy, resource allocation and portfolio management”, Research-Technology Management, vol. 47, no. 3, May/June 2004, pp 5059. 11. R.G. Cooper & S.J. Edgett, “Ten ways to make better portfolio and project selection decisions”, PDMA Visions Magazine, XXX, 3, June 2006, p 11-15. Order APQC definitive benchmarking report online (www.stage-gate.com): Best Practices in Product Innovation: What Distinguishes Top Performers. 40 www.prod-dev.com www.stage-gate.com © Product Development Institute 2007 Private and Confidential 20